Chit Chat Stocks - Deep Dive: Nintendo (NTDOY)

Episode Date: September 24, 2020

On this show hosts Ryan and Brett are joined by Ian Gray as they perform a deep dive on Nintendo stock. Listen and get a complete overview of what Nintendo does, how the business has been performing, and anything else important to potential investors in the company. Follow Ian and check out his work on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IanGrayLive Follow Chit Chat Money on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chitchatmoney Subscribe to Chit Chat Money on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG5Ni-SI-jyrEsoNUhqftNQ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/chit-chat-money/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Restrictions apply. Welcome in, everyone. This is our first new episode on deep dives. It's going to be called either Thursday Deep Dives or Just Deep Dives. And the first ticker we're doing is Nintendo, a ticker for if you're trading in the United States. It's a Japanese company, but the ticker is N-T-D-O-Y. There's two. There's two, yeah.

That's the one we use. Yeah, there's a couple of different ways you can invest in the company just because you're investing in a foreign company in the United States. but the difference between this show and the fundamental analysis show is we're going to go longer it's going to have a similar structure but we're adding a few things that i think will help maybe get a better overview of the business instead of just all right you should go research this further this can give a comprehensive overview for anyone that's interested in investing in the company including uh our third analyst right ian gray in welcome to the show thanks it's great to be here and working with you guys yeah we excited to dive into nintendo

we've got some particular sections just for ian that we've done now and so we've expanded sort of our analysis so this might be a little bit longer than our typical fundamental analysis shows but i'll start with what nintendo does if you don't know nintendo is a global leader in the interactive entertainment space so they develop produce and market software and hardware pretty much for the gaming space they've branched out a little bit but we'll talk about that later in the show if you think about the gaming stack so uh from the hardware creation to the game development to being a gameplay publisher which does a lot of the financing part of the gameplay um nintendo really does all of that whereas most companies in the gaming space dominate an independent sector

so you'll have like gameplay developers companies like ea and then you'll have sony who creates the playstation that kind of thing nintendo does it all um but as you'd imagine that brings with it some cyclicality so as hardware sells more game development becomes more lucrative and you get this major compounding effect because um once you sort of create this threshold of users then it makes more sense to have more games on there and more developers want to develop for it but it comes the other way if the hardware doesn't sell people don't want to develop for it and you basically get this major cyclical event and um a little bit about the history nintendo was founded in 1889 so a long time ago in japan by fuzajiro yamauchi remember i'm terrible with names yeah

we're actually we're coming out with a big test for you on this first one this one's tough um originally they were known as the nintendo trading card company for a long time that's really what they did but in 1949 yamauchi's great grandson took over hiroshi yamauchi they're doing so well so far yeah um and he led the company until 2002 they started creating games and toys in the 60s and in 1977 they hired shigeru miyamoto miyamoto there you go um who went on to create uh donkey kong legend of zelda super mario bros a bunch of games for the wii i mean he really created the most promising brands that nintendo has um their history could basically go on forever but i'll leave it with this in 2017 the nintendo switch was released and as of august 2020 more than 63

million switches have been sold so they i mean your parents probably know about them if you're a young investor um if you're older you probably know about them from way back when nintendo 64 all that stuff they've been around for a long time uh why don't you talk about the industry yeah this is a new segment i guess i would call it for the deep dives compared to the fundamental analysis i'm just going to go over their industry and basically talk about some of their competition maybe some of their market numbers so they as you said compete in the gaming industry broadly but you can kind of classify that into two things hardware which is the switch device or historically um you know the gamecube ds gameboy stuff like that and then they also do

software which is for games the games themselves so developing those they have actually had a kind of they're the most vertically integrated of those companies although they are expanding into more third party which we'll get to later the console market itself is an oligopoly which is run by three people and they have nintendo right now with the switch microsoft with the xbox and sony with the playstation they dominate and there's really no other players total units sold has decreased since 2017 for the entire industry but the switch has gathered larger market share in that time and then within that switch has become the number one console the last three years playstation is a close second and xbox is a surprising distant third um i thought xbox and

ps or playstation were closer but i guess playstation does sell a lot more i think it's close to twice as much and the new console cycle does start this year for playstation and xbox which means that there likely will be a boost for their market shares and switch may decrease in market share but that doesn't mean they're not going to sell as many games and if we get to the playing side some of the numbers for the entire gaming industry more than 214 million people in the united states play video games at least one hour a week so you could say it's ubiquitous at this point it was a growing market and now it's kind of like television movies that kind of thing where it's a part of everyone's life especially if you're a family with a kid

under the age of 18 I would be surprised if they haven't even played video games at least at someone else's house and then that was kind of an overview of the hardware market the game market is more fragmented you have a lot of smaller studios and then you have big names like EA which is electronic arts activision blizzard take to interactive univision microsoft epic and then tencent the chinese conglomerate owns and invests in a ton of asian games there's also c limited is a startup in the southeast asian area which they have it's a little bigger than a startup yeah or yeah they're not a startup they're uh they're kind of new to the market compared to a lot of these older companies um the compound annual growth rate of the industry is 9.2 percent and

is already a 150 billion dollar industry as a whole which is huge especially like that growth rate plus that industry industry size you don't see that very often asia pacific as you may have guessed is the largest market video games are extremely popular there latin america is the fastest growing and then i think the united states is a large market and it's also growing fairly fast but it's not the fastest or the largest market and then mobile gaming is the biggest section of the market uh but not a lot of studios have sustained sustained success hard to say that in uh in mobile so ea you know activision they've kind of been entrenched in a lot of the console markets but mobile gaming is a lot of hit or miss and it's mainly controlled by apple and google

who take a lot of that market uh not market share but they take that cut uh for revenue and then ian i think you have the management and ownership uh segment here yep so dive into a little bit about the management of the company the president which is um kind of their equivalent of the ceo for these japanese companies is shuntaro furukawa he became president in 2018 and he's only 48 years old um today he's one of the youngest leaders um if not the youngest leader in their history um but he's worked for the company since 1994 kind of he started up in their accounting department and has worked his way up throughout the last 25 years um he's the sixth president of the company which i found to be kind of interesting since it's been you know

it's over 100 years old and they've only had six presidents so it's kind of a monumental thing when someone new actually takes over and for him he stressed the need that nintendo needs to do a better job with games as a service models and mobile games as brett mentioned there's um mobile games is the fastest growing aspect of the gaming industry and so they haven't done they've had their pokemon go hit but they've had some other flops and so he really wants to do a good job of growing mobile games and he has a commitment to experimentation he wants to let people um kind of have the ability to try some things out um a quote from 2019 that he gave was he said giving our teams the freedom to experiment with new ideas is something i strongly agree with

expansion can't happen without the freedom to try something new and the courage to step into unfamiliar territory this is a little bit of a kind of a change from their traditional strategy of being very conservative and so he people are kind of interested in exactly what direction he's going to take the company he's also committed to focusing the company on entertainment and not necessarily technological advances he really wants to he thinks that nintendo is great at entertainment and that's what's ultimately going to bring success for the company is just having entertaining games, even if they don't have the best graphics or things of that nature.

They don't have really any insider ownership, which isn't surprising at this point since the company's been around for over 100 years. Obviously, the founders aren't even still alive. That'd be quite impressive. Yeah, it would be.

Exactly. So they don't have that magic going for them, but there is some significant institutional ownership. And one thing to note for a lot of you fans of The ARK ETFs and Cappy Wood on Twitter, they have been growing a position. So they're big fans of Nintendo, it seems like. Yeah, and that can tend to power a lot of retail investors as well.

I think they sort of set that in motion. I know a lot of retail investors track what ARK Invest does. It's kind of a surprising position. They're typically more of those growth names that Nintendo seems to be the opposite of. But I'll get into the valuation. this is you know as we say always with the valuation it is subject to change these numbers here aren't they will be as exact as possible but the market cap does change because it trades every day so right now the market cap is 68 billion dollars ticker as i said n-t-d-o-y if you're in

the united states and the price of stock is 71 dollars and 50 cents on the american markets and that's denominated in dollars um the financials here are based somewhat off of the 2020 results but I also did some annualized from their latest blowout quarter to kind of show like if they keep up their momentum what those valuation numbers could look like their price to sales currently would be about 5.6 but if that's a little irrelevant for a mature company like this also that was that that was not including this most recent quarter correct yeah so this is the trailing fiscal year 2020 which ended sometime this spring their price to operating income was 20.8 price to operating cash flow is almost the exact same which shows that they're translating

that pretty well their price to gross profit was 11.5 and then if you annualize the blowout quarter this summer their valuation will be a lot lower price to sales of about 4.6 price to gross profit of 8.5 and price to operating income of 12.36 but they are not like you can't annualize them and give them an arr really easily that's not the type of business this is you got to look more on a one year time horizon or even like a three year time horizon to really evaluate this type of company. Current ratio at the end of the year was 422%, which is, if you don't know, current assets divided by current liabilities, very easy calculation there. And it looks like their dividend yield was about 1.3%, but it was a little confusing looking at their financial

statements, trying to calculate that. Okay. And then I'll dive into the earnings. Last quarter, Nintendo reported $3.4 billion in sales. That number might be a little skewed because I did the yen to dollars conversion, which is different now than it would have been when they reported this probably. But that was up 108% year over year. 47% of the overall platform sales came from hardware. So if you're still thinking of this as purely a hardware business, think about it.

That's only 47% of the top line is from hardware. Yeah, so about 50-50. Yeah, and then gross margin increased from 48.5% to 59% in the year, which I believe has to do a lot with the increasing digitization of the sales. And then they generated roughly $1.4 billion in operating profit. That grew 427% year over year. Keep in mind that growth rate likely isn't sustainable. Yeah, definitely not.

But keep in mind, yeah. So just the growth rate isn't there, but it will come down fast and people should expect that. And then profit on a per share basis grew about 541%. They had $126 million in mobile and IP related income. That grew 33%. That was a highlight for me looking at the most recent quarter. They sold 5.68 million switch units this quarter as well. 54% was the original switch and 46% was from the switch light, their second iteration.

unit sales of the switch were up around 167 percent software unit sales which included includes both packaged and downloadable versions of software grew 123 percent as well last year of all the total software sales 38 were digital this year probably because of covid uh that that number is now around 56 for the quarter and that's definitely leading to higher profitability if they're buying them digitally. So they have 40% operating margins, 30% net margins. And I think that increase from sales being disk-based or hardware-based to digital-based is here to stay. I don't think that's a temporary shift purely because of COVID. Yeah, I think that's a good assumption to make. Okay. And then Ian, I think you're covering the balance sheet and liquidity

as well. Yep. So the first thing to start on the balance sheet, I think just for about just about any company um but particularly for nintendo's the cash they've got about eight billion dollars in cash um you know at a 68 billion dollar market cap so a fairly significant um pile of cash um part of the the thing here is they don't really have very many significant liabilities as brett mentioned they have a um current ratio over four which is um pretty high just for reference someone like disney has about a 1.3 current ratio um it's it's a they're very very conservative and i think there's a lot of the biggest question about the balance sheet is not whether they're going to go insolvent or they have liquidity issues it's more of a question of are they being able to invest the

cash that they have at a at a rate that's going to generate returns for investors um it indicates to me that they're either hesitant to invest in their own business um maybe maybe out of fear of the future and what's coming, and they want to make sure they have enough cash to withstand some downturns, which they've experienced in their past. They've had some dry spells in their past, and I'm sure it kind of scares them and makes them want to hold on to cash. But given the strength of the IP, it seems like they should have plenty of runway to invest. It's a little bit puzzling to me why they're holding on to so much cash and not investing it into the business. But that's kind of the main thing to touch on the balance sheet, I think. Yeah, pretty easy balance

sheet to go over it's like all right we got a ton of cash and nothing complicated at all and i think we'll have a good discussion about what they should do with the cash if they should buy back stuff on the second half of the show so for reference if there's any new listeners and i guess this is a new type of show that we're doing that's similar to the fundamental analysis one but just for this episode i'll explain kind of how these go we're going to go to the ad break and then we're going to hit the second half of the show which is more of a discussion so this first part we're trying to get all the information out there we know you can read about it but we think it's a good way to just get all the information of a company that you need to know and then the

second half we're going to go over competitive advantages which is kind of like the moat future growth opportunities and then what we like and dislike and then kind of discuss maybe debate some few things and then kind of decide we're not going to do any ratings we actually had to cut that out just um yeah just why in some months yeah we'll explain why in a future episode but yeah we're going to do that we're going to hit the ad first and then we'll get back to the second half of the show all right welcome back next up we're going to talk competitive advantages which is as you can see in the title is anything that gives nintendo an advantage over the competition and can help them generate more profits i think we'll start here with ryan

what do you have for this segment yeah so the first one and this one's kind of obvious is they have a gold mine of ip um and so they can leverage that in a few different ways um one of which and could be like super mario or uh what was it super nintendo world i think that could work but there's a billion is that a theme park yeah that's the new thing park i forget where they're planning to build it but um the the point is that it's hard to build ip like this and so that's a major competitive advantage because this makes new hit games a lot easier to develop as they can basically just be newer iterations of old titles um and this also brings in sort of an ensemble capital talked about this the nostalgia factor um for parents so i believe the number was 67

percent of gamer parents play games with their kids weekly that was up a large percentage from three years ago i can't remember the exact numbers and i don't have any stats on that but it seems Almost all of that, when you're playing kids, if it's any family-related stuff, it is intentional. Yeah, and another competitive advantage that they have is that running the whole stack makes bringing games to market much cheaper. And building a successful game, it becomes much cheaper when it's your platform. That makes sense. And then what about you?

Yeah, I got something similar, but it's a little different. It's the Disney-like ownership of the gaming entertainment brands. it's an easy analogy to make but it's not exactly the same because they do gaming uh so for gaming you could think of nintendo brands like mario pokemon which they own a 32 percent stake in pokemon so that's a quite a large part of their business estimated it's tough because there's not many disclosures on what pokemon is worth but it's estimated to be like 10 13 billion dollars which is quite a large stake versus no stake nintendo stake is worth about 10 13 billion dollars depending on i don't know pokemon's market cap but relative to nintendo's market cap that's

pretty big they also own zelda donkey kong a lot of other stuff animal crossing it's kind of like the disney movies for families that are playing video games i think it's very valuable and particularly very hard to disrupt at least that's what it seems like um i don't see anyone coming in and disrupting marvel and i don't see anyone and coming in and disrupting mario i think it's a solid note really um ian do you have any thoughts on those or do you want to hop into yours yeah i think that those are that kind of you know goes right into some of what i was going to talk about but i think they have an ex kind of an advantage of just this tacit knowledge that they've developed over the last you know 100 plus years of learning how to make things that people

enjoy to play right and they they just are good at making memorable characters and games that people you know they're they're not always the most cutting edge games but they're they're interesting and they're fun and they like you said they involve the whole family i think another thing to point out is the viral nature of pokemon go um i think there's some kind of mixed reactions about how well they've been able to monetize that and and how they haven't really been able to really make a big jump into mobile gaming but i think there's something there that just shows their ability to make something that people really enjoy and um it's hard to quantify that and it's hard to get that if you don't just have this years and years of knowledge and expertise in doing that

and i think like the ceo has mentioned experimentation and really just trying to focus on what they're good at entertainment not necessarily the technology or the cutting edge of the world and gaming but it's really about entertainment right right leave the the cutting edge technology i think microsoft has the competitive advantage there uh but yeah exactly yeah and we'll uh hit up next is future growth opportunities i think that's self-explanatory as well so ryan we'll start off with you again what do you have for them yeah so we could have gone a lot of different routes here um they're they're i'm i'm pretty bullish on the company so uh if you can't tell i i think there was a lot of ways to go but i'm gonna say allowing more

third-party engagement on the switch platform could be a big one so ea was pretty vocal about bringing more content to the switch platform on their fourth quarter conference call they stated we are also planning to deliver for more nintendo fans with multiple ea games set to launch on nintendo switch this year so i'm not sure on the exact numbers of how much is uh third party versus nintendo's on their platform how much of the content is theirs uh but there's been a lot more developers developing for the switch platform so fortnite rocket league um pga tour 2k21 i know you like your golf yeah i do so it that sort of validates to me that the switch is here to stay you you wouldn't find third-party developers spending time and spending money to develop

for the switch platform if they didn't think it was going to stay uh yeah i'd agree with that i'd agree with that what about you oh my future growth opportunity it's simple uh aggressive capital allocation or really more aggressive capital allocation they don't have to just burn everything and go um super levered up here but it might be wishful thinking with their history of being a super conservative company but in fiscal 2020 they brought um they bought 5.7 billion dollars in treasuries or investment securities that probably yield nothing like i mean you know interest rates they're bad especially in japan um they're negative a lot of the times but i love them to crank up the buyback machine if they're just gonna do that because they do

generate a ton of free cash flow i think it's going to generate a lot of free cash flow for the next few years here at least a few billion a year i think they were at three billion last year so i i mean they're gonna bring in more cash if you are thinking that nintendo could be a good return or that it could 3x from here or that they could triple their earnings per share if they buy back a lot of shares during the next few years here while they do that the returns would be even better for your portfolio and i think there's no reason why they can't do that and yeah so i agree with you and i think the capital allocation can be more aggressive but we also have to also think they have now taken the mobile and the console migrated them or merged

them cutting a lot of costs in the process so when they cut costs in the process and they generate tons and tons of free cash flow it's hard for their cash balance not to accrue and i don't know i mean maybe they are like ian said playing a conservative in case it is cyclical and they need the money for the downturn but i wouldn't be surprised that the cash balance continued to rise yeah i would i would put that as a negative i would hope like their current ratio would go down below two and a half at least hopefully a higher dividend i know they said they're going to ramp up supply because if you've tried going to a store to buy a switch it's been basically impossible um because they sell out fast demand's been really high um and so they've said they're

going to spend a lot more money to ramp up supply of those switch platforms yeah that makes sense um ian do you have any thoughts on the capital allocation or other yeah i think what you're talking about is exactly the direction they need to go they gotta they gotta find something to do with the cash because it's there's so many opportunities to to grow and just with the ip that they have trying to find ways to get that into people's hands is important and whether it's Switch games, mobile games, augmented reality, movies, merchandise, you know, just they got to figure out ways to get it into people's hands. You know, we talked about the theme park earlier. I don't know if that's necessarily going to work or it's not, but I think it's good that they're experimenting.

I think there's also some interesting concepts that they could do that are more kind of augmented reality type experiences and different kind of alternative forms of entertainment. that I think people in the aftermath of COVID-19 are really going to be looking for new things to do. You know, everyone's going to want to go back to the movie theaters. Everyone's going to want to go back to theme parks and stuff like that at some point once it's safe. But I think there's also going to be, you know, just a longing for new types of in-person experiences

and maybe even ones that can be socially distanced. So I don't know exactly where they'll go, but I think if they're exploring and experimenting and trying to find augmented reality type experiences, I think that could be an interesting way for them to grow in the future. Right. And listeners should note that they have a 20% stake in Niantic, which made Pokemon Go. So they have a 32% stake in Pokemon,

but Niantic has a partnership to make Pokemon Go that probably the best AR game or the most popular one over the last five years. And if you think that AR is going to be big, you kind of have some exposure to that with Nintendo. although that's not really the way we like to invest if that's kind of your thing you know if you think that ar is going to be one of the next big things here nintendo could benefit a lot from that all right highlights and little lights yeah do we want to switch it up ian do you want

to go first so we don't steal any of yours or yeah i can i can hit it so so a couple of my highlights are just the young president who's committed to experimentation that's kind of been one of the themes i've hit on a lot here but i think having someone that's coming into a fairly conservative company and um who understands the company he's been in it for you know over 25 years but he also seems to see this this brighter future in this room for innovation so um you know i think that that's really interesting and they have a knack for just these big hits right between the wii the switch pokemon go you know they just they make these products that just take over the world and get everybody talking about it um with all the cash they've got a lot of optionality um a couple

of the things that i'm a little bit more worried about are they do seem to have some dry spells like we've talked about they're not super aggressive with cash um and i think you know the one the one thought i have had is they probably need to become more like disney and less like gamestop you know not just being so cyclical on these machines coming out or these titles coming out and be be able to kind of stretch out the cycle a little bit more and i think one thing for concern one kind of reason to to be a little concerned for the future is with the new cycle of PlayStations and Xboxes coming out. Right, right.

It'll be interesting to see how they kind of are able to respond to that and whether the Switch maintains its dominance or if the technological advances are just too much in these new machines. And I think, if I'm correct, they are planning to launch the Switch Pro at some point next year, which will be the third iteration of the Switch, which it's going to be interesting to see how it fares against some of the more technologically advanced consoles.

that could compete better with them but yeah it will be probably their toughest test yet um this new console cycle because it looks like microsoft and sony have invested a lot in those um those new consoles but it's not the end i'll be all for them all right ryan do you want to hit your highlights and lowlights and then i'll finish up yeah so in an industry with tons of tailwinds they're cash rich um and they have some of the most valuable brands on the face of the planet i think pokemon is the most valuable brand on earth historically yes and they're a business that in my opinion is being de-cyclified and they're valued like a cyclical and so the reason i say that is they and they've sort of mentioned this is that they're aiming for an iphone like ecosystem

where and the reason i say is the customers games are stored in the cloud but the customers can upgrade to new hardware iteration iterations much like the iphone is is done that sort of style and like ian said the optionality is endless and i know a lot of people tend to use the word optionality but when you have brands you can leverage like that and they've done movies they sell merchandise they have mobile they can still i think they still sell playing card games they own the mariners they can build a theme park you know they really can't go anywhere they own 10 of the mariners so it's not real significant but they own 10 of the seattle matters it's more than i own next year next year yeah worst playoff drought so bearish case low

lights they do seem reluctant to spend their capital and they they seem reluctant to spend their time and capital on ios i would almost appreciate and that might be intentional but I'd almost appreciate some sort of bundle deal with Apple where they say, all right, Pokemon Go is a part of Apple Arcade or something like that or some sort of subscription play there. I disagree with that one because I don't think Apple Arcade is very successful.

Maybe it's just because I haven't heard about it. They could have millions and millions of users, but I don't think it's that successful. And I don't want, I don't know. I feel like Nintendo is trying to build their own ecosystem. And yeah, with mobile, they're going to have to just be the third party developer, but I don't know.

they probably should be investing more in the iPhone or at least iPhone and Android. What about you? Uh, highlights management has strong history of pivoting. Well, um, they may pivot very slowly compared to some of the faster moving players in

the industry. And it might seem a little late, but they usually get it right. Um, they don't pump their stock under their earnings releases. They actually kind of do the opposite sandbag a lot. They don't really talk about stuff. It's super plain.

Um, it's actually a very boring to read all this stuff, uh, which I think is a good thing because that doesn't get any of the hype going, which really doesn't correlate to business success. Their growth in digital sales was strong and should increase margins. I do like they're becoming more relaxed with third-party developers. I think that will help with their modes and competitive advantages.

And there is that potential for the Switch, as people have said, to become the iPhone for gaming or more iPhone-like. I don't know if people have said it's going to become the iPhone for gaming, but you've made that analogy, Ryan. I think it's there, but I don't think it's strong. Maybe they could become 50% because the iPhone is like the most profitable single product in the history of business,

which would be tough to match for sure. And then lowlights, they have a history of poor capital allocation like both of you guys said. The non-recurring nature of their business currently is a concern, which is why they get that lower valuation, but they have a low floor

because that valuation is already priced in. And if they can de-cyclify, that'd be a great thing. They'll probably get a boost in earnings and also a boost in the multiple that the market gives them. And then that's really it. Oh, I guess mobile sales are still surprisingly low. I would think they would be better at that, but hopefully within the next five years,

they can become one of the biggest studios for mobile development. Okay. I think that's going to wrap it up. Do you want to take us out? Yeah. Before we go, Ian, do we want to talk about where listeners can find you and stay in contact? Cause I guess you're kind of our. Ian Gray live. Ian Gray live or.

Yeah. If you go, you can find me on Twitter at Ian Gray live and also iangraylive.com. All right. There's a sub stack as well. Yeah. There's a sub stack that's optimist investing. You can find that.

There's a link to it on Ian Gray live. All right. Perfect. Yeah. Seems easy enough. And yeah, I got to read the outro here and it's been a few months, so I got to remember it.

Just remember, everyone, we are not financial advisors. Anything we say on this show is not formal advice or recommendation. Thank you guys for listening, and we'll see you on our next episode. Thank you. It's an honor. This family is on the brink of civil war. On September 18th, Mobland, the hit original series, is back on Paramount+. We are the Hartigans.

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