Chit Chat Stocks - Limbic Capitalism - SinStockPapi

Episode Date: July 6, 2021

This week we are joined by SinStockPapi to discuss Swedish Match and Evolus. Listen in to hear some great stories and anecdotes. After the interview, Brett and Ryan discuss their favorite stories from the week. Let's go! 7investing is empowering members to invest in their future. Use our code “CCM” to get $10 off your first month or annual subscription, or use this link: https://7investing.com/subscribe/ Interested in more of SinStockPapi’s work? Follow him on Twitter:  https://twitter.com/sinstockpapi?s=20 Want updates on future shows and projects? Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chitchatmoney Rather watch us on video? Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG5Ni-SI-jyrEsoNUhqftNQ Contact us: [e-mail] Timestamps Interview | (2:45) Interview Continued | (27:44) Show Notes | (44:20) Disclosure: Chit Chat Money hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Brett Schafer and Ryan Henderson are general partners and portfolio managers at Arch Capital. Arch Capital and its partners may hold securities discussed on this show. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Chit Chat Money. Today is Tuesday, July 6th. Today we have an interview with Sinstock Poppy. We talk about Swedish Match, Evalus, Sinstocks in general. He has an interesting approach. He's a young investor like ourselves. And fair warning, I guess there was some explicit content, so don't. Yeah, we have that explicit label on here, but typically we keep it family friendly. So if you have some young kids maybe in the car, there might be a few moments here. You don't want to listen to, just want to put that warning out there.

But anyways, after the interview, we're going to be talking about our stories for the week. Some really interesting ones. We actually ended up having the same ones, so I let you take them. What are you talking about? Yeah, we got Robinhood S1 going to go through some of the exciting risk factors there. Probably talk about the business as well. Didi got shut down or, well, Beijing took a big crackdown at Didi, which is the Uber of China. So we'll talk about those developments and then all the rich guys announcing that they're going to launch themselves into space, which is fun.

Really a fun way to wrap it up. Yeah, it's kind of a battle of the egos, if you will. Exactly. But before we get to the interview, we want to talk about our sponsor, our friends, 7investing. Now, I've gotten the time to digest their July picks. One in particular that I really like and I guess no surprise. Let me guess. Matt's or Dan's?

Yes, Matt's. interesting. Dan's a good too. I thought a lot of them were good. One of them, Audubon's business, I really, really like. That's as far as I'll go. And we've discussed it between you and I. But yeah, Matt's, it's kind of one that's under your nose. You know it exists, but you just don't pay that much attention to it. And I was unaware it was actually public. Pretty compelling. And either way, great research, like we always say for anyone. And if you want to sign up, do that today with our code CCM. Get $10 off your first month.

Go check it out. Great service. All right. Without further ado, here's your interview with Sin Stock Poppy. Welcome to Chit Chat Money. On this show, hosts Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer interview industry experts and riff on the world of investing. As a quick reminder, Chit Chat Money is a CCM Media Group podcast. Ryan and Brett are also general partners at Arch Capital, and Arch Capital may have positions

in the securities discussed in this podcast. Anything discussed on Chitchat Money by Ryan or Brett or any other podcast guest is not formal advice or recommendation. Now please enjoy this episode. All right, today we are welcomed by Sinstock Poppy. I guess we all met through Twitter, the Twitterverse. and first of all we just talked about it before the show but i like the name uh do you want to give us a little bit of background about you how you got into the world of investing and then maybe

why the name sin stock copy yeah so first i just want to say thank you to brett and ryan for having me on and uh you know it's a real pleasure to be on here uh so the way i got into investing was actually an accident so i went to a school where extracurriculars were mandatory but i played like really high level hockey so like i missed the club fair because i was at hockey practice and they kind of just like placed me in the business club uh so i was lucky one of my buddies colin was in the club with me and we did like a stock market simulator this is grade nine okay so i have no knowledge about investing and literally we won the stock market simulator by putting 50 of our money into apple because we thought the phones were cool and we had the laptops and we put the

other 50 into lulu lemon because we were grade nine boys and we liked the way the girls asked looked at them so we're like this is a great product this is a seller this is gonna win exactly it was pretty simple you know um uh so we had like or i had early success and it was like lucky but i was like okay i'll stick with it so i went to university at one of the big business programs in canada called queen's commerce and then i kind of parlayed that into two buy side internships while i was there during my summers um so one of them was like a spin-off of burgundy asset management and the other one was kind of modeled after uh francois rochon's uh givernais um so i read a lot of books on investing because i was fascinated by it and i wanted to pursue a

career in it um and i studied a lot of like i guess like past investments of both of the funds um kind of where they were successful and where they weren't and i kind of built that into like my own like framework and understanding of investing um so you know just basically i find the game intellectually simulating and enjoyable and i like to win i'm a competitive person so i think this is just like the perfect field for that um yeah oh and then uh why why sin sock poppy uh yeah it was just a play on drake's instagram handle so drake's champagne poppy so i thought sin socks sin sock poppy was pretty clever um and then just with sin socks in general uh you know i think that or i have kind of a bucket uh for investments uh which i call limbic capitalism

and it focuses more on businesses that have persistent habit formation uh you know and i think we all know how hard it can be to quit uh bad habits so uh i think that basically all these you know addictive limbic capitalistic businesses can one way or another be categorized uh under sin And I think that, you know, the concept of sin is very lindy. You know, sin has been around for 5,000 years. So I think that it'll be around for 5,000 more. And I think even as the world changes around us, the one concept that will never change will be human behavior. And that's what I'm looking to exploit as SinStock Poppy.

All right. Yeah, that's a good introduction. And you have been, you know, doing a lot of stuff on Twitter. You said you mentioned you're doing a new newsletter-ish around SinStocks. is that coming along is that coming up shortly yeah so like i don't know whether i would say it was like or i'm trying to make like a newsletter it's kind of more so like i would say more so like a blog so kind of like like a free thing but like kind of a way for me to share more long-form um theses and kind of get feedback from a lot of the smart people who are on twitter um because you know like you're always trying to iterate and get better as an investor so like

you guys are like young i'm young like it's just a way to get feedback from some of these older dudes who are like probably like seasoned bats you know what i mean right no i mean it's great you know a thread can be good you can do a 15 thing thread but sometimes yeah summarizing some slide decks you gotta really you know put that sometimes if you're gonna get the actual idea out there so yeah i mean it's exactly get that real feedback all right we uh we're gonna talk swedish match and evelis today uh and swedish match is a company that brett and i have been looking at a lot recently and if we're kind of talking about it before the show uh and i don't want to spoil your thesis but they own zin so it's very popular among younger demographics so why don't you kind

just talk the overall thesis why do you like the stock yeah so i think it's basically a capital light compounder that sells an addictive use product it's got phenomenal brand loyalty as you talked about it's huge on college campuses it's got a long runway for growth it's less than one percent of total global tobacco spend and that global tobacco spend is growing two to four percent per year it's roughly 820 billion um and just basically in a nutshell uh it's an adaptation of buffett monger's investment at coca-cola right like addictive product huge market pricing power capital light like it's just got everything you want and the great thing about zin is that the alternatives either kill you like smoking and like dipping or there's like a glaring user

experience problem right like smoking you smell like like you smell like cigarettes your mom's gonna find like lighters in your like jeans or something that has happened to me like you know what like like you need a spitter like you can't use it in the office so it's really like it's a win-win for the consumers and the companies because like you get to live longer you have a better user experience there's no mess and you get to be free from long-tail medical risk but then the company also gets to milk you for a longer period of time because your average life expectancy goes up by 10 years right so i think the end game is pretty obvious consumers want to live longer and you You know, I think the most interesting thing about this whole category in general of reduced risk products is that nicotine usage is actually increasing, not decreasing, increasing globally for the first time in like, I don't know, like 30 years or something like or sorry, since since 1994.

So last time you had like nicotine usage increasing in the US was like actually during like the grunge period. So like you guys are from the Northwest, like all those grunge bands from like the mid 90s. like that was the last time really so i think that now you've got 50 of entrance or sorry entrance into the pouch category that are first-time nicotine users and i think in the states at least you've got a pretty strong brand flywheel so that's that's driven by social proof and i think barring any game changes and the speed of nicotine delivery because oral nicotine has a slower absorption rate like like it hits your brain and your bloodstream slower than smoking if they can bring that to parity then that's like game set match in my opinion

okay so right now the um say the value proposition to put it in that way to the the smoker is a little bit different so getting someone to adapt to the nicotine pouches it might not give as much of a a pop or a hit as a as a cigarette does yeah exactly um so i might not do that but the one thing that it does score better on is the the length of delivery so so like it'll depend like the user experience benefits are clearly better right like you're not going to die you're not going to smell bad you can use it in the office right like but i think that one of the reasons that historically oral tobacco has been so small compared to uh like smoking uh has been the speed of delivery so if you think about like other drugs like if you think about people

who are addicted to drugs like it's either like they're shooting needles or they're smoking it right like you smoke crack you smoke meth you smoke cigarettes like or you shoot heroin like i've never heard of anyone who was addicted to gum and cocaine like you know what i mean like they're not addicted to gum and cocaine they rail cocaine right so like i think that that's one aspect that if you bring that to parity and i think you know like i'm not a scientist but the science guys are probably working on this like these are very profitable companies like if you get that then that's like a game changer yeah it's interesting to see what that development is and that kind of goes into the next question and you know the main thesis for sweden's match

is the growth of zen and the volume so i guess the question how do they continue to grow that over the next few years yeah so i'll start off with what altria thinks and then i'll go into what i think so altria is like the is the u.s division of philip morris um they own like uh copenhagen school uh and uh marlboro cigarettes so they think that volumes are going to grow about 20 to 25 percent per year uh through 2026 that's five-year kegger and that's volumes but if you layer in like the six percent annual price increases which is pretty standard in like mst or you know like dip like then that's essentially like 26 to 31 percent a year in the u.s alone like for the dollar value of the category uh so if you want to break down how i think about the

growth and like it's two ways kind of like you've got the opportunity to increase the frequency of use intraday because you can now use this at the office it's easier to hide you don't have to worry about like you know going to the bathroom to vape right like or going outside to smoke a cigarette um so that's one aspect uh but then the next one is like the geographic and user expansion because i think we've all like talked about it like it's a better mousetrap just simple and plane and they aren't even one percent of the 820 billion dollars that is total like like a spent globally on tobacco and that 820 billion is growing two to four percent per year so in terms of like tan penetration like this thing is like like not even one percent of the way there um and

then as we talked about the speed of delivery if you can really get that up to par with inhalation then that's game set match um in my opinion doesn't say what i guess what do you think about some of the other oral nicotine competitors i know this is something on is the brand that i think ultra has and they talk about it a lot you see them being able to scale up and compete with zin what sort of advantages do you think zin has and it's because you know zin has been losing market share in the u.s over the past at least few quarters if not steadily over the past few years they're still the clear leader but yeah yeah no i agree um so i don't really think of it as a concern because the more the big boys push the category the faster the volume growth in the

category will be and it'll really like accelerate the social acceptance aspects so i think what's more informative than the declining volume share, because Altria and British American Tobacco have run heavy promotions selling products at $0.99 or they're even giving away tins for free, is the dollar share. So when you look at the dollar share, Zinn still has over 70% share of the total category spent. That's a lot. And after the big boys and their promotions, their volumes typically fall off at the store

level. so zin actually if you look at the data has greater velocity at the store level so that's higher cans per store per week despite having average selling prices throughout the like throughout the quarters that are roughly 70 percent higher so zin the average selling price is i think 4.95 for on it's around 2.93 and then for british american tobacco it's something like 2.40 something right so like those are really big differences like the difference between zin and uh velo is like almost like 50 percent right so i think that the market is telling you like this is the winner or at least in the states it's the winner uh what what is fascinating though is

that um in scandinavia uh they haven't really been able to win share against british american tobacco uh because British American tobacco is winning by a pretty large margin uh and that's pretty like or I'd say it's pretty noticeable to me because that's their backyard right like they should be winning right so kind of what that tells me is that the advantages aren't coming because of scale because they're able to price higher the lower prices aren't really I guess making that much of a dent in their dollar share what it kind of tells me is that it's really driven by a first mover advantage and then there's a kind of stickiness at the consumer level and that's driven by a combination of social proof and then shelf space with distributors and like

cognitive reference that kind of like sort of act in a positive feedback loop that kind of drive sales so it's like almost like a flywheel so i think that what the real competitive advantage is is that mindshare is the brand and i think that it's hard to build a brand in tobacco or in an industry like a new brand because there's like an inability to advertise yeah right right yeah that makes sense i mean the comparisons to soda are pretty stark um i have two other questions that i maybe want you to hit on what are your thoughts on the international growth and then what kind of i know you've been tweeting about the incremental margins in tab some what are kind of the unit economics of these mixing pouches insane bro the unit

economics are insane uh i forget what it was but i think like if you take the average so obviously they don't break out what their margins are on zin right but you can kind of guesstimate So the incremental margins in their U.S. business are 73%. So if you take the incremental operating income, you work backwards to an incremental NOPAT, so net operating profit after tax, you get your number there. And then you look at their incremental spend on CapEx. So you can say, OK, we know from past years ZIN wasn't there. So we can kind of say that maintenance CapEx is maybe 3% or 3.3% of revenue. So you can work out what the incremental CapEx is.

So the return on incremental CapEx is like 184%, which is insane. And that's like, like just the capital they spent, like that doesn't adjust for the company doing buybacks or like capital returns. Like that's the pure return on, on like the invested CapEx. And then if you look at, I think on fixed assets, it's like even better. So it's like close to 200% return on every dollar that they invest. that's that's pretty damn good what do you what do you think of the other uh businesses that swedish match has do you like having sort of that diversified portfolio um i forget the brands uh

is it red man red man or i guess the lighters too would you rather see them kind of get rid of that i mean that's like three percent yeah get like like my thesis mainly hinges on the smokeless um and uh the the cigars business so i think the cigars business is really interesting too like they had over 20 volume growth in the category over the past three quarters year over year and then they took six percent price so the incremental margins on their cigars business last year was 77 like operating margins which is like insane like is that sustainable i don't know but i thought that was pretty interesting and cigars is a category that's growing like low double digits per annum like through the next decade right so like like even like cam newton

like cam newton has a show like on bet now where like it's called sip and smoke where like he interviews like i guess like people who are successful in the black community and it's like cigars right so that's product placement so like you're only going to help the category grow um but the other question i think you had earlier was on international growth and i think that the nordics and north america are kind of unique in that like dipping is like normalized here like if you went to like the middle east and you did that like they wouldn't like do that right like they have like shishas right like they have like those shisha towers like i don't know if you guys ever been to a shisha bar but like smoking there is like more

normal so like that's kind of what i see it's like you're gonna have to slowly convert these people if they even like adapt to it at all okay that makes sense yeah going after they went after the easy markets and now it's going to be a little bit more you know it's going to be more difficult so don't just expect them to go after this tam immediately and stuff like that yeah yeah yeah yeah and then i guess the last question we have here so you know the big question people have with all these sin products, and especially with anything related to tobacco, which, you know, technically nicotine powders aren't tobacco, but it's nicotine. Do you think there's a threat of it going the way of, you know, Juul and vaping with the big crackdown

from the FDA and the regulators? And could that impact the business? Have you thought about that at all? I have thought about it, but I don't think so. Because if you look at the CDC survey uh for 2020 the usage incidence of smokeless uh which includes nicotine pouches is only 2.3 percent vaping on the other hand was like 25 percent at peak so these guys are government employees or regulators right like they're not going to go out of their way to create more work for themselves unless like they think that you know something like vaping one in four kids is going to cost them their job right like you have angry parents writing in so vaping at peak was like one in four high school kids whereas like we are like a little over one in 40 probably like

one in 41 so that's like a pretty big difference um but i did mention that 50 of pouch customers are new nicotine entrants so swedish match doesn't say that and i think that's deliberate to keep regulators off their backs but like you already like alluded to the fact right like it's growing like a weed on college campuses um so i think that that purchase incidence probably happens after they leave the high school uh ecosystem um so that's why i think like the probability is low if they ban flavors i think that's how they would do it they would ban flavors i still think you're going to see a stickiness amongst like because because you're going to have a flow of customers coming from mst right from from debt because there's still clear user experience benefits

um but you might have some drop off from people who switch to gums maybe but even worst case scenario like mst does like five to seven percent per year growth and that's like most of that's pricing right like six percent pricing is like conservative in mst like stokers is the lowest and cheap value play and they take five percent pricing per year like i want to say some of the bigger boys are probably pushing nine percent like they probably did nine percent last year maybe somewhere between seven and nine so worst case scenario is still pretty good like it's really good what and then that's when you say the big boys you mean what swedish math sounds like red man stuff like that is that what you're referring no no no sorry sorry i i meant like

copenhagen like grizzly skull okay okay uh but but getting back to red man like so like when i was in grade 10 like that's when i first started dipping and like most of the guys on my hockey team had already started dipping before and that sounds messed up but like that's the reality of it like that's what goes on in these locker rooms like kids are doing it that early but like i knew guys who would like strictly only to red man because like it would make them look heart you know what I mean to make you seem like you're a beauty right like you get extra beauty points if you chew red men so like I've never actually personally chewed red men but I remember there's a guy on my team uh Megzi you called him Megzi Megzi would always have a bag of the red men

long cut or like like like whatever it's called I think it's like long cut or something like that like he would have it and like everyone just thought he was the biggest beauty because he would use it yeah i mean go ahead i was gonna say do you think there's less incentive for crackdown against uh the oral nicotine pouches because they offer better benefits to compared to like cigarettes like or even vaping yeah do you think regulators are less encouraged to kind of crack down on it because of that i think that is the reason yeah um i think regulators just because the incidence is so low right and because because the incidence is so low amongst high school students from that from the cdc survey it probably tells you that okay either

this is going on at college so these are adults making adult decisions or these are adults making the decision to switch from cancerous tobacco products to a product that doesn't kill them and you know this is a good thing not a bad thing for society yeah and then i guess on top of that one it just from the people who get angry which are basically the parents is kind of the kickstarter there into the government it just instinctually i think people have a problem with the vaping i don't know whether this is the image they have in their minds and that's a problem with vaping but with nicotine pouches it's almost the opposite where no one even knows and maybe the incidence rate is so low because nobody even knows that these people are doing it which which

is fantastic for uh from i guess um a shareholder standpoint but that might be some other reason it's also and then it's actually helpful like there's no problems with it it's just yeah yeah like i was just gonna say like societally with dip at least anecdotally from where i'm from it is kind of ugly to have like that dip whatever bottle like the spit bottle like no one wants to see that no yeah yeah and then the smoking side or the vaping is just less like it's so people can see it and it feels kind of intrusive whereas zen like no one really cares yeah for sure exactly it's it's it's literally like a nicotine like gum yeah right like it's it's closer i think in a regulator's mind they view it as being closer to a nicotine gum

than to being uh something like mst or like dip and like the thing you were talking about like the spitters right like you don't have a spitter you don't have to worry about like accidentally swallowing dip spit if you don't have a spitter like it just solves a lot of the problems and i think girls go ahead girls won't make you brush your teeth after you have a dip like if you want to kiss them like that's a pretty big thing man like i was talking to uh another guy on twitter who's uh he's a coach now for i think one of like the minnesota uh university like uh hockey teams like like their club hockey team um but he was saying like he's like the main reason like i switched was because like my girlfriend was like i'm not going to give you like i'm not going to

kiss you anymore unless like you like make the switch or it's like unless you brush your teeth and he's like fuck it i'm gonna get this like nicotine pouch yeah i mean that makes sense and On top of that, I think it expands the market potentially to a lot more customers who would never dip but might be casual users of a nicotine pouch. Yeah, I think if you actually look at the category volume growth, so volume growth for if you combine like MST, which is dip and nicotine pouches, the composite of that grew 8% in 2020. But Swedish Match grew their composite volumes like 40%. So it's like clearly like they're doing something right here. Yeah, for sure. All right.

Anything else, Ryan? No, I think we're going to have an ad break and then we'll talk Evaloos on the back half. This episode is brought to you by La Quinta by Wyndham. Here you are miles from home and ready to start your vacation. Good thing you're staying at La Quinta by Wyndham. They have free high-speed Wi-Fi to stream all your favorite movies. And in the morning, get fresh waffles with their free Bright Side breakfast. Or squeeze in a workout at their fitness center.

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We just finished up with Swedish Match And if you are a listener to some of our other shows We just covered them on one of our deep dives Fascinating business but since doc you have covered them as well so kind of what's your thesis uh with ebulus and and i might add can you explain it a bit because you know the name doesn't imply anything normally yeah so ebulus is essentially just a a botox uh kind of competitor so botox mainly focuses on aesthetic but also medical uh procedures whereas juveau is a purely aesthetic solution

so it's just basically you know the stuff if you see kylie jenner you've seen her lips how they changed she got fillers and that's what this is so it's just basically a filler that costs less for plastic surgeons so i think the thesis is pretty simple you have a generation of boys and girls who grew up on social media and they have extreme body dysmorphia and the result is that you're going to see an increase in spending on plastic surgery especially because like instagram i don't care what people say about tinder but instagram is the number one dating app like let's say if you're let's say you're a female or something and let's say you can change your appearance right like that's a pretty solid investment like i know it's not politically

correct to say but like you're gonna like like i have a friend who's a girl who like got failures and now she's dating some dude in miami who's like loaded and like i guess that's like like it's a bad thing to say but it's like it's like the reality of it so like again getting back to the benefits from like the the the med spa operator side is that you get an 18 increase in profit per per unit used uh and then you also use more units of juvo versus botox so people are coming in for treatments every three months versus every four to six months uh depending on the alternative if it's juvederm or if it's botox so there's like a double bottom line benefit there to the plastic surgeon or the med spa operator um so like uh basically like in some cases uh practitioners

who have moved uh their like or a portion of their botox uh budget to juvo have seen bottom line improvements of like a million dollars or more so there's a real incentive uh to switch I think you see that in their 70% growth. I think at maturity, this can be a really capital-efficient business because it's primarily intangibles-based. There aren't a lot of competitors, so it should, in theory, have great margins. Yeah, and then they don't actually manufacture the product. They're basically a middleman with the IP because they have that Korean pharmaceutical manufacturer making the stuff. And one interesting thing I saw when I was reading the 10K is that Daewon has to sell Juvo to Evalus.

And Juvo is the product, just so we're clear, that Evalus has. That's the competitor to Botox. They have to sell it to Juvo at a fixed price, which basically any time Evalus raises prices on the med spot, people, which, you know, they probably can't because they're trying to be the low-cost provider. But it's all incremental margin for them. Exactly. That sets them up to do pretty well. I guess Ryan has another question too, but what are your thoughts on their advertising techniques? It seems like what they were saying is that they really like they get with a doctor and then they just flood the market within like a 15 or 30 mile radius of that place with either billboards and then social media advertising.

It seems like that's a really smart way to get these young customers and switch them over from Botox or switch older customers over from Botox as well. so i'm not as familiar with i guess like their market specific marketing campaigns but i think i guess if you're looking at the sales like they do seem to be working i don't know as much about this industry as i would say like as i know about uh tobacco or i know about nicotine products but i think what is interesting is just the velocity of their sales increases and i guess kind of getting back to how do you get people to try the product i think that what i have seen about them is that they've been organizing meetups at the med spas so it's kind of like come and like enjoy a treatment bring your friends like it's it's more of a social

kind of friendly atmosphere and i think that makes people more inclined to to switch if that makes sense do you think that physicians or these med spas will naturally start to adopt it because of the financial benefits to them or do you think that evalus is going to have to spend a lot of money on sales to try to guard yeah is it a sacrifice there i think that you have to spend initially to like get over the hump to get someone to switch but then once you switch they're in there for good because like they're going to see the benefit to their bottom line right the big problem that people who haven't switched to it already have is they're worried about the integrity of the product right because if you're a med spa operator if you're a plastic

surgeon your quality right the quality of your work is how you get paid so i think that once they get over that initial mental hurdle then like the dominoes will fall into place like it's still so small as a percentage of the market and a total med spas that like that tipping point hasn't happened yet what so do you think botox could sort of reverse course and go lower cost if they started to lose market share to uvo or juvo however you say we don't know for we always show we have no idea if we're saying it right i have no idea either but i think it would probably be juveau just because it sounds like juvederm so like it sounds similar so that could be like a like it would play well in like consumers minds um or in the plastic surgeons or med spa operators

minds um but sorry could you repeat your question could botox reverse course and kind of go lower prices um to compete more with juveau or juveau i don't think that they would because the market is growing so fast and also like it's a more comprehensive product right it has non-aesthetic use cases also uh but then like the bigger one is that like the ceo right he's got to hit his numbers otherwise he gets fired right and the board has to hit their numbers too like like you know what i mean so there's a real like short-term myopic quarterly focus in public markets if they reduce prices then like their stock's gonna take yeah yeah and so i think that's very likely now they're a part of abby so they're in this giant bureaucratic biotech company exactly maybe saying

bureaucratic is maybe abby has some sort of decentralized structure but it is kind of that counter positioning deal where you could see people having the flexibility to do whatever they want because they're the new entrants um but one thing you know we haven't seen in the income statement yet, because they just got past those legal issues this last quarter, what kind of margins Jugo could have? So have you done any analysis on that? What kind of profit margins, I guess, Evalus on the whole could have at scale? I think at scale, so you talked about South Korea. So there's a company in South Korea called Hugel. So if you look at them, they've got 40% plus operating margins and then i think uh the unit inside abv where they house uh like botox they've

got probably more than 50 operating margins so that's kind of where i think they could go and then obviously back up the royalty payments but even still like this is a 70 gross margin business operating subscale so the general direction like don't overthink it like the margins are going higher and they're going way higher this is like a sas product right like they're spending on that like so the early spend is to capture that initial relationship and then as you go throughout time that's a recurring purchase right it's a consumable and they're going to have pricing power especially because it's priced lower than than botox have you looked at the legal settlement legal settlement at all no and i'm not a lawyer so i cannot give you any special differentiated

insights um on the legal settlement but i think if like you just gotta like whatever i think hugel is i'm gonna build an income statement like that and then whatever the royalty rate is i'm just gonna clip that off of revenue and then just keep the cost the same and then that's how you would kind of figure out the the margin yeah because if i'm remembering correctly they have the long-term royalty payment that they said was mid single digit uh as a percentage until 2032 so you know that's whatever you think that would be you know the profit margins might be 30 instead of 40 but still really really high i mean they had those insane insane but double digit royalty payments and their gross margins were still north of 50 so you know yeah so you said that they were high

mid-single digits uh long term was long term was mid-single digit they do not disclose and i'm just reading that from the 10k so it's mid-single digit to uh and it might just be international it's a bit complicated people should go read that up themselves but yeah to some company until 2032 that's the one that's going to really impact that for a long time okay so let's just say midpoint okay so five percent is what the royalty is just as an assumption so we said 40 operating margins at scale so that means operating costs are 60 60 cents right because you're making 40 in profit so if you just take down the revenue to 95 right five five percent royalty then your margin just goes down to 35 yeah still pretty damn so yeah it's still awesome so like i don't think that's a

a big i guess negative and they're so capital light because it's it's all intangible space right it's all science based it's all based on those those guys in a lab somewhere with lab codes doing experiments like i don't know i'm not a scientist but that's what i picture and it's like it's a good business like don't overthink it right like the same way that you you were talking about earlier like you see zen on campus like if you go out and you look at the girls in our age group because we're all fairly young like you see the trend like you know what i mean yeah i mean it's undeniable like the the social media filters well it might sound dark the social media filters and how they make people look online can really discourage how people look in real life exactly

that's how the world works right i have tons of friends who are like really like i would say like girls who are like good looking and they even use facetune every single girl uses facetune right to like edit and facetune is like an app that makes like allows you to edit like your face it's like photoshop but like for your iphone and they all use it and it's like i know that's pretty dark but it's like this is not something that's going away it's a genie that's been let out of the bottle social media filters facetune all we can think about as investors is how we can make money from it and then maybe you know we can donate to causes um you know like after we become rich it's a third party it's a third party market you know come on yeah exactly tomorrow's investing

uh last question so we're we've hit about this a bit but what are the thoughts on the growth of the plastic surgery and injections market and that is that just a tailwind that really be a rising tide of what's all boats here i think we saw and these are always just estimates that the market is projected to grow like 10 each year over the next decade um what are your thoughts i think that's very low like i think even if we just see it in real life like like you can see like you know what i mean just like girls that you know using it like let's say this thing has pricing power i don't know what the pricing power in this sort of category would be but i know girls who will spend money that they should have spent on rent

and they spend it on fillers so this is clearly like up there in terms of like addiction or things that like people put a priority on so like could they get away with five percent pricing power per annum i think so and i think the benefit also comes on like the side of the person who's operating the med spot because then you can also raise your prices too and say oh no it wasn't me that's that's that's you vote right but you can get away with them raising prices and then also the the the um the the person who's like giving the service can also raise their prices and kind to get away with it so i think that the growth can can can be massive because this trend hasn't even played out in places like india or like like like you know what i mean in asia really like in

in korea and in china yes but like even still like korea is probably saturated but like other places in the world like this hasn't really taken off right there's a few uh i forget i mean korea might be the one but there's a few asian uh regions that are really heavy into this type of stuff right like i know one for sure like india it's not big at all um but if you like so like nick jonas married like priyanka chopra like that girl is not natural right she's got like fake lips she had her nose done she's probably got fake tits like you know what i mean like she's now a role model to like those girls over there and like you're probably going to see an acceleration of spend as they get richer i think that's one of the things that you see is like as a society gets

richer or as a country gets richer then these are the things that they start to spend money on oh it's an interesting thesis yeah i think that makes sense um this is just a byproduct of instagram i guess it's another way to invest in it um yeah you have anything else in that list ryan no that's it for me wrap-up questions yeah all right we just have one question uh we try to ask these to all our guests what is one financial saying that you disagree with um i disagree with the saying that you shouldn't put all your eggs into one basket. I think you should put all your eggs into one basket. You should watch that basket very carefully. And if you look at all of the greatest investors of all times, they have always had very large concentrated positions in things

that they had conviction in. And in things where there was asymmetry. So I guess that's what I would say be be concentrated and bet big when you have the odds swing at the fat pitch right and that to be clear for anyone listening that means when the opportunity presents itself you can't being concentrated into just some you know 50 times sales sass stock might not be i mean you never you never know but yeah the fat pitch they're not they're not everywhere but i think does great um thank you sin stock right no that's it thanks uh thanks for coming on where can people find you uh if they want to look at more of your research um so thank you first of all for having me on again uh and thanks for giving me this platform to speak um they can find me at sin

stock poppy all one word on twitter um and then in my bio there's a link to my sub stack and then the first post that i'll be writing will be on swedish match so if you guys want to learn more about the industry and just kind of more longer form stuff uh there's some shorter form stuff on twitter but i'm going to be going a lot deeper on this post um just you know so so people can i guess also learn like maybe what to like what what a longer form thesis might look like also right for an educational perspective if there are retail investors who don't know what they should be looking for this kind of highlights like what you should be looking for okay all right i'm excited to read it yep thanks again yeah thank you for having me cheers guys

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spotify to save cash and find your flow state all right welcome back in thanks again to sin stock poppy for joining us hope to have him on again uh but we're going to get to our stories and i'll kick things off this week tencent uh the big gaming wechat conglomerate basically everything conglomerate in china yeah yeah uh they were set to have a gaming merger between their two companies uh so they they're not exactly their two companies but they have majority stakes and the companies are hoya or i might be butchering that and duo you and so hoya is the number one video game live streaming platform in china think kind of like a twitch i guess and then duo you is a similar concept but it's the second largest and they

were set to merge to kind of become one however that got blocked this week uh and so what would happen is duo you would have become a wholly owned subsidiary subsidiary of hoya and tencent would own apparently 67.5% stake in the newly merged company. But last night, it was announced that the Chinese antitrust regulator is preparing to block the merger. Some sites reported, and it's not super clear why it's being blocked. Yeah, sometimes there's the translation stuff. It doesn't really flow well going from English to Chinese.

Yeah, one site reported that Tencent was unable to find a sufficient remedy to meet the state market regulatory authority's requirements for waiving its exclusive rights. It sounds like a lot of legal jargon, but that's to say that this did not go through. And I think they're going to refile, but I'm not totally sure. And the two companies had a combined market value of $6 billion. Now, I don't think this is a massive deal because mergers get blocked all the time, and it's not like a case of fraud or anything like that. But does it kind of add to the level of uncertainty with China?

Because Tencent has a good relationship with the government over there. And it can really happen to anyone. Yeah, if you would have to force me nowadays to invest in one Chinese company, I think I would pick Tencent. A lot of people might pick Alibaba, but there's just those worries. I just worry about some of the stuff with that company. And that's probably why it trades at such a low multiple. But, yeah, it's not a big deal for Tencent. It's probably not a big deal in general.

I think the concern is, and we'll probably talk this with Didi, is there's no set rules. like they're you know the government interferes in the united states and in europe with businesses but it's usually it's or not usually it always is under you know laws that have been set beforehand and it seems like in china it's kind of whatever the government wants to do sometimes so you can get surprised negatively and that's just kind of it throws in some uncertainty as an investor And then as someone from the West as well, I probably said this before, but you feel like you're the last one to know. You feel like you're in the dark, even if it's just because you live over here. It's just really hard to understand these companies from my point of view.

And I bet some people in China that invest over there could see this type of thing coming. They could see them writing on the wall, but it would have been a total surprise for me. And that's just not something I would want to invest in. It feels, I don't know, not speculating. It just feels risky because I don't have any information. Yeah. All right. Well, that was kind of just not a huge headline, but I want to get to yours because this was the story of the week.

This is huge, yes. So Robinhood S1 dropped, which is, if you don't know, the document you have to file before a company goes public for their IPO. and this is you know the most wild maybe riskiest company out there at the moment that i don't mean riskiest from an investment perspective although you could probably argue it is it's just kind of the tactics that he used as a company uh so here is a serious one from the risk factors i'm going to read them there are a lot of quotes here but i think it kind of encapsulates or gosh am i using that term right the what robin hood is doing some of the risks there and obviously it's the risk factor. So here's the first one. It's a serious one. Quote, because a majority of our revenue is

transaction-based, including payment for order flow, reduced spreads and securities pricing, reduced levels of trading activity generally, changes in our business relationships with market makers, and any new regulation of or any bans on payment for order flow may result in reduced profitability for our company. And then it goes on and on a little bit more. Transaction rebates were 81% of their revenue in the past quarter. Any thoughts on that? Does that kind of leave some regulatory risk here? What's the rest of the 19% like margin? It's probably like Robinhood gold or whatever. They have that gold thing. That's a, it's pretty small. I believe I haven't looked at the financials

are very, uh, uh, I don't know. I didn't take a good look at the financials cause I don't really care about this for this company. It's kind of more of how it operates for all the people that are participating in investing like us, but I think it's probably net interest income, stuff like that. But the majority of the business are these transaction rebates. Yeah, that's not overly surprising. I don't know. When you read that risk factor, it makes it seem like the payment for order flow concept is one that people are looking to get rid of. Some people are. Some people are. I mean, it's got a dark connotation. It's kind of just, but if you don't have it, you're going to have to pay commission. So I'd really rather have it

as someone that doesn't trade that much and the other thing when you're reading that it's it reads like we need transactions like that and we're going to do what we can to get transactions uh including some sort of gamifying tactics i guess um yeah also i don't know if you have this in here but they call them monetizable daily active users which is no no finance company does that well yeah i i don't know what that that's a tough look i don't know they're just it seems like this company isn't fs1 they're in the uh they might be the in the deepest within the silicon valley bubble if you had to rank the companies i maybe rank uber too something like that where they're just kind of in my opinion and i could be wrong they're kind of acting

delusionally or delusional excuse me and delusionally yeah i just made up a word too But I don't know. Yeah, all right. Some other risk factors. Yeah, so this one is basically in every one, and it says we're involved in numerous litigation matters that are expensive, time-consuming, could harm our reputation, business, financial condition, whatever. I think almost every large company has that. It's pretty boilerplate, but I believe they have, what, 1,600 lawsuits currently. They have a bunch of other things going on.

The reason that I brought this one up is we're in a really hot bull market. most people are satisfied what happens to the lawsuits to the people complaining to the customer support issues that we know can get pretty tragic what happens to that in a bear market everyone's making money right now if a lot of people start losing money i i could this 10x could these lawsuits you know just go crazy yeah but so far when i look through all the lawsuits it's all settlements so i guess if there's enough customers to make up for it where they can just settle on everything a little bit like facebook where they get yeah i don't know but man that just feels again that they're playing a dangerous balancing act uh i'll get to this next one i think this one

highlights the bad incentives that a company like robin and has and this is they have to say like this so it's kind of stark many of our customers are first-time investors and our trading volumes and revenues could be reduced if these customers stop trading altogether or stop using our platform for their investing activities so they're incentivized to get people to trade as much as possible which in general or on average i guess uh you know there's all those studies out there that the more you trade typically the worse you do so it seems like they're They're incentivizing their customers to act not in their best interest. My only pushback is that how is that different from the old brokerage houses?

Oh, it's the same. Yeah, that one's not that different. But they're using way more gamification. Yeah, I guess. I guess they're just better at it. Less transparency as well. A little more deceptiveness in this way of making money. Yeah, that is true.

The old brokerage houses, I mean, totally did this. and a lot of other people will try to convince you to do this so they're not the only evil one here but yeah it seems worse when they're kind of um what you might call it gaslighting that you know their customer base by saying we're democratizing finance we're helping out these people when in reality they might not be i don't know what other uh risk factors yeah so this one we get to the crypto stuff which is always um interesting interesting interested to hear what think about this one quote the loss destruction or unauthorized use or access of a private key required to access any of our cryptocurrencies may result in irreversible loss of such

cryptocurrencies if we are unable to access our private keys or if we experience a hack or other data loss relating to the cryptocurrencies we hold on behalf of customers our customers may be unable to trade their cryptocurrency and our reputation in business could be harmed now this is with all anyone that holds you know coinbase probably has this as well all the other uh broker uh crypto exchanges have this but it is i could be totally wrong here because it could be multiple keys but are is it all relying on this one private key and if they lose the password isn't 20 i mean 25 of bitcoins basically dead because the passwords uh people have lost their passwords it's kind of just uh not accessible which on its own is insane but it's right it's robin at risk of just losing

a password here that feels a bit crazy to me yeah i wouldn't be surprised if it was just on a sticky note on vlad to know this computer on his monitor you know he's like a memento or you may not have seen that movie but he tapped they have to tattoo it on his body just so he can't miss it although that would be pretty dangerous because then people could hack them very easily actually can't do that because that'd be a big risk in and of itself um but i don't know i don't know and then we all right we have one more here and this is possibly the best risk factor in the history of risk factors uh i think matt levine had the best tweet where he said things are just incredibly stupid something along those lines uh here it goes quote a substantial portion of the

recent growth in our net revenues earned from cryptocurrency transactions is attributable to transactions in dogecoin if demand for transactions in dogecoin declines and is not replaced by new demand for other cryptocurrencies available for trading on our platform our business financial conditions and results of operations could be adversely affected now that's hilarious in and of itself but when your business is relying on dogecoin that concerns me this bit yeah i mean other than the fact that they're able to send push notifications and it's almost like they create an addiction with their users this feels like the most fragile business of all time i know at this stage oh bulma oh for sure and people have been highlighting kind of build that around in the

tech bubble taking up old screenshots of like e-trade revenue up 120 percent in 1998 you know or 1999 i mean maybe that means that the bubble can keep going but well yeah and it's one thing So what was the valuation they're seeking or whatever? $50 billion. 50x sales on a brokerage. Yeah, so that's... Okay, granted they 4x revenue last year, but it's not the same as a subscription service. Can you name a more fragile business other than Nikola that one week that would reach a $50 billion market cap?

Well, I'd have to think about the one that could be. Maybe Tesla in its early years. Yeah, Tesla. But I would not say Tesla's as fragile now as Robinhood is. Right, right, right. They have proven to have more of a business than a lot of people like ourselves have thought. Gosh, I don't know. It seems like you're just – this is an easy way to get a 3X whatever lever.

What are those ETFs? Robinhood is essentially a 3X lever bet on like market sentiment. It's kind of strange. I don't know why someone would write that. it feels totally speculative on guessing what. Long Robinhood, you might as well just be long the VIX. Like I think they're pretty much like supplements to one another. Maybe, maybe.

It might be the opposite though. When stuff gets wild, people flock to Robinhood. That's true. That's true. When things get wild, there's going to be probably a lot more trading activity and they could do well. But if markets are tanking, then they might lose a lot of customers. I don't know.

It just seems like you're betting, you're speculating on what other market participants' behavior are going to be. And maybe Robinhood's clearly the best at getting people to trade. So, you know, it's kind of like Facebook. They're the best at getting people addicted to those apps. But hundreds of millions of dollars on engineers instead of customer support. That's true. That's true. All right.

Well, I'm going to move to my story. So this week there was a conversation, or last week, I guess this might have been. It was taped a while ago. It was taped a while ago. and everyone was treating it like a live conversation. But Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger sat down with Becky Quick, and there was this basically one-hour segment on CNBC called The Wealth of Wisdom. We thought there would be some big announcement.

I think everyone kind of thought that. And they covered a lot of stuff, but there was no big announcement. We thought they were going to acquire Hershey. Yeah, because there was that rumor of the plane landing. I think we discussed that. But if it was taped way before this, then there's no chance. Yeah. And so anyway, there were a lot of soundbites that came out of this and a lot of FinTwit coverage of people trying to, I guess, cancel Charlie Munger because he did say a few things that were – he talked about –

I guess they weren't – they're not popular opinions. Yeah. Some of the positive things or I guess some of the things he thinks communist China has done well. He's not afraid to talk about it, yeah. Yeah. Do you think the backlash on Charlie was warranted? I don't know, man. People need to stop overthinking what a 97-year-old, like, I don't think he can ruin his reputation at this point.

I don't know. He might be able to ruin his reputation because you can do that. But he is 97. I don't know. What's weird is, like, at that Daily Journal meeting this year, I thought he had some great points, pretty entertaining. But when you listen to the old Berkshire meetings, you realize that it's just not the same as it used to be. They're just too old, even Warren, too. It's not the same.

I would rather, I don't know, the man's 97. Come on. I mean, don't take anything I say seriously. When I'm 97, I would be so out of any perspective of what society is like. Obviously, these guys are going to have tons of wisdom from the past. I mean, they have the best. At this age, it's going to be sprinkled in with some lapses. oh for sure i mean think if it was like 2080 2090 i'm gonna have no one should ever listen to what

someone who would be us our age then like oh i don't know the guy was born before the great depression it's just tough to listen to he's obviously he's got a lot of wisdom and it's but it is a bit strange to me that he's got this you know wealth of knowledge and he's read the whatever for like two, three hours a day for his whole life, or for the latter half of his life, and he comes to these conclusions, it's interesting to me. You know what I mean? It's kind of surprising.

Yeah. Did you take anything away from the interview that you actually liked? I mean, it was obviously kind of random. It wasn't really any purpose to it. I don't know. Yeah. Maybe it was just, I don't know. They're just being nice to CNBC for hosting kind of the annual meeting.

But they really did. I don't know. It's really CNBC should be thanking Berkshire because it's kind of, you know, the biggest event of the year in finance or one of the biggest. I didn't take away anything. I don't know. Charlie was like, I like Zoom. I don't know.

It was weird. I thought the stuff about the businesses that they all owned at the start dying was kind of interesting. Oh, actually, yeah, that was good, yeah. And then 10KDiver on Twitter kind of did a nice thread on it and basically most businesses will fail. All businesses will fail eventually unless time stops. And I don't think time is going to stop. I mean like on a long enough timeline, every business is going to fail. That's true.

Well, it kind of – do you think it gives a good – well, the way they were talking about it, you know, they've been in these businesses for so long, it kind of encapsulates that if you're investing in something from, say, the inception to bankruptcy, the value has to converge on how much excess cash it generates. It can't be anything else, which is a good, I think it's a good way to frame it. And they probably, I mean, they have an advantage because they just get to own these businesses like that Buffalo newspaper sees candy and it just generates cash and there's no outside market that can really affect the or you know you know i mean it's all just based on the cash it generates um and as outside investors we can't sometimes you know play that simple of a

game but i don't know yeah that was probably the best part but overall uh it was a weird it was a weird dynamic i don't know what's going on there all right what's your next story okay short one But it is about Chinese regulators taking down a company again. So China takes down Didi, ride-hailing company. It is the Uber of China that actually had a big-time competition with Uber. And then Uber left China and took a stake in Didi. Very interesting. But Beijing decided to halt new user sign-ups and kicked Didi off of all the app stores.

The reasoning was a cybersecurity review. And then I believe there was some things that now it's not it's unclear what's true or not. But there was some good tweets out there about people speculating that they really kind of overstepped their bounds and they weren't supposed to go list on the New York Stock Exchange before doing this review. Right. So this could be punishment for that. But curiously, this was enacted two days after the stock's IPO in New York City. I'll be interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow. which I guess would be today when we're listening. It seems like it's going to take a huge hit.

I don't know. Any thoughts on this? No. The Wall Street Journal covered it pretty well. There's a good article in there if you feel free to read it. And it sounds like they were warned before the listing on the New York Stock Exchange that you should have the cybersecurity review done. And basically they were getting pressure from investors to list,

and so they did it anyways. They defied the government. they kind of told him like hey don't do this just wait i don't know usually a usually a bad decision i mean this is jack ma's any indicator this is yeah and it's great again it's crazy that munger can have these views and but the evidence is right there that it seems a bit um but it doesn't seem great i don't know it seems like it's but how can you invest in these companies that leads to my next story which is like all right so we just there was more development in the Lordstown Motors thing this week.

So federal prosecutors decided that they will be taking a look, I guess opening an inquiry into Lordstown Motors. There we go. But what would you rather have? Them do that after the fact, after they've taken money from retail investors? Because think about how delayed this is. Or the government stepping in and saying,

no, you're not going to listen until we say you can. Well, I think the clear difference is that there's set laws in the West and in China. They obviously have rules and regulations, but you can kind of make those up as you want, which adds a lot more uncertainty. And, yeah, people can game the rules in the U.S., but there's supposed to be at least, like, laws that can't be changed unless you go through the democratic process, all that stuff. Yeah, it's just been so gamed recently. I think that's where – when you read through like the Lordstown stuff or you read through all the SPAC prospectuses of companies where the founder was a prosecuted criminal before or they've been kicked off by a board of another scummy company and they're out here doing it again, raising money from retail investors. That's where I see the influence of government being helpful. Having a bigger hammer that you can strike quicker.

saying no you can't just take advantage of those people i mean that's definitely a positive yeah definitely a positive there i think on a net basis it's better but yeah and charlie but charlie also said he's like you know i don't want the whole system i just want the crack their crackdowns on financial markets yeah definitely yeah i bet that soundbite kind of got taken a little farther i mean he obviously doesn't support the genocide if that's going on like people are speculating but I don't know it's weird

it's so weird especially with all this news recently and then he has those texts maybe that was recorded earlier it is a bit strange

and he kind of liked the government going after Jack Ma which I didn't really agree with but I don't know anything else on Lordstown here?

no alright what do you have? last one? yeah no you alright I'm yeah

Lordstown there wasn't really anything substantive other than the federal prosecutors opening an inquiry alright well should be exciting please please stop speculating ev specs it's a bit ridiculous but i guess we

can't tell you what to do uh all right finish this up a fun one all the rich guys are going to space uh richard branson is front running bezos and going to space in a virgin galactic ship on july 11th really not much to say about these companies or about this except that these companies feel like hobbies for billionaires i'm not sure that makes them investable it's a like we're gonna shoot this guy up into space okay how much does that kind of cost yeah i don't think cool that's cool but i don't know i don't think rushing to get into space before your billionaire friend does is really a good idea i'm not i would never want to rush it i'm not going to space just just To coddle your ego, I mean, this seems like something where you should take your time.

Yeah, I'll be the millionth person to go to space. I will not be the first. But I guess these are kind of brazen, you know, risk-taking CEOs. Branson, I don't really like. He kind of seems like an egomaniac. You know, jet skiing with naked models in the Caribbean and stuff. It's a bit strange. What about Zuck?

Zuck? With his American flag. That was cool. I didn't really watch the whole video. I've just seen the screenshots. Those things aren't easy to use either, so testament to his athleticism. I think his PR department is doing a fine job. I don't know.

Definitely. I mean, nothing he does is just on a whim. But last question, will Elon, do you think, be forced to join the party here? He won't resist. He can't resist. Well, I do think it probably hurts him mentally to see it. But he's in a different position because he is still at the helm of Tesla. That's true.

That's true. So he won't be able to. I guess Richard Branson's at the helm of Virgin. Maybe, maybe. He might just be chairman. I'm not exactly sure. I wouldn't. But, I mean, Bezos, it was smart of Bezos to step down before doing this.

That would be. This is, I mean. This is really risky. It's a risky endeavor. Yeah. Yeah, I guess that's true. But as we know with Elon, he sometimes does not do things just because they're – I mean, I wouldn't put it past him to do this while he's still the CEO of Tesla.

I mean, he's basically been able to do whatever he wants the last three years. So, you know, he may not have – he may not be able to resist. Like, everyone's going to be like, dude, don't do it. Don't do it. And he's just going to tweet, like – He's going to be watching that video of Bezos and his brother, like, do you want to go to space with me? Me, Kimball, we're heading to Mars.

Oh, man. It's just crazy, the space stuff. It'll be fun to watch it play out. I wouldn't be surprised if all of them were delayed, honestly. Oh, man. I mean, yeah, I would have second thoughts. I feel like Virgin Galactics had a lot of delays on a bunch of flights. Yeah, and they're not even real.

They're just kind of planes, I think. I could be wrong. But, gosh, what was I going to say on that? Oh, when I'm watching, I'm going to be super nervous, too. I mean, gosh, I cannot imagine. It's going to be cool to watch, though. Oh, yeah. That's like a week away, isn't it?

It's this weekend, I think, yeah. Oh, wow. It should be exciting. Well, I think that's going to do it. Thanks again to Send Stock Poppy for coming on. Thanks if you listened all the way through. We are general partners at Arch Capital, so clients may have positions in the securities discussed on this podcast. We are not financial advisors.

Anything we say or discuss here on Chit Chat Money is not formal advice or a recommendation. Thank you guys for listening. We'll see you next time. Thanks for watching!