Chit Chat Stocks - Rebuilding Our Portfolios From Scratch (Stocks We'd Buy Today)

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

On this episode of Chit Chat Stocks, Ryan and Brett look at a fun listener question: What would you own if you had to start over your portfolio with stocks you've never owned before? We discuss: (00:...00) Introduction (02:48) Rebuilding Portfolios: The Challenge (06:52) Wix (13:37) Amazon (19:48) Uber (32:32) Nu Bank (39:38) Grupo Pacifico Airports (43:29) Grupo Sureste Airports (49:01) Grab (56:09) Leidos Corporation (58:30) American Express (01:04:58) Hagerty Try Portseido and analyze your portfolio performance: portseido.com/?fpr=ryan63 ***************************************************** Subscribe to our newsletter, Emerging Moats: emergingmoats.com  ********************************************************************* Chit Chat Stocks is presented by Interactive Brokers. Get professional pricing, global access, and premier technology with the best brokerage for investors today:  https://www.interactivebrokers.com/  Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.  ********************************************************************* Check out Value Spotlight: Stockwriteup.com  ********************************************************************* Fiscal.ai is building the future of financial data. With custom charts, AI-generated research reports, and endless analytical tools, you can get up to speed on any stock around the globe. All for a reasonable price.  Use our LINK and get 15% off any premium plan: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/chitchat  ********************************************************************* Disclosure: Chit Chat Stocks hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is presented by Interactive Brokers. Interactive Brokers is the best platform for global investors. From their one-of-a-kind market coverage to their best-in-class pricing, IBKR truly has it all. If you're serious about investing, head on over to IBKR.com. Stay tuned for more Interactive Brokers later in this episode. Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks. On this show, hosts Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer analyze businesses and riff on the world of investing. As a quick reminder, Chitchat Stocks is a CCM Media Group podcast. Anything
Starting point is 00:00:35 discussed on Chitchat Stocks by Ryan, Brett, or any other podcast guest is not formal advice or recommendation. Now, please enjoy this episode. welcome into chit chat stocks a podcast to help you find your next great investment my name is brett schaefer and i'm joined as always by ryan henderson we have some great wednesday episodes in the queue as well as this week so make sure to follow the show chit chat stocks spotify apple YouTube, wherever, and you can listen and watch and never miss an episode. Plus, subscribe to our newsletter. The link will be in the show notes there to join our free Substack conversations. We talk a lot about investing and all sorts of topics
Starting point is 00:01:22 related to our episodes as well as topics for the investing power. So speaking of, we had a great listener question in the Substack chat the other day. Here's what they said. If you had to rebuild your portfolio with 10 names you've never owned, maybe five for you and five for Ryan, at today's prices, what would it look like? We thought this question was great, and we decided to turn it into a full podcast. That's the, as people can see from the title, that is the topic we are going through today. We have 10 stocks on the list that we are going to, quote, buy for the portfolios that we've never owned in our history of investing. We're going to spend about five to six minutes each, hopefully,
Starting point is 00:02:02 not make this too long, talking through our basic thesis. We may or may not own these stocks in the future. As a full disclosure, these are stocks that are probably the top highest on our watch list. But again, these are stocks we either, Ryan or I, have never owned before. So it excludes anything we've owned in the past or existing holdings today. These are fresh looks at stocks we may or may not want to buy in the future. And again, this is not disregarding valuation. the stocks we would want to buy right now if we had to rebuild our portfolios from scratch. So, for example, I think a company like Rocket Lab is quite exciting, but it trades at, what, 50 times sales. It's not something that I'm excited about buying right now. And I think
Starting point is 00:02:48 that gets, that should explain things. Ryan, why don't you introduce more information and introduction before we get into the meat of this episode? Yeah, I love this prompt. It really kind of forces me to think. I will say it's probably harder for me than it is for Brett because I use starter positions in my portfolio. So a lot of the companies that I've wanted to own in the past, I just bought a starter position. And now we are doing only stocks that are not in our current portfolio. And like Brett said, this isn't a stocks we want to own, but we're waiting for the right price. This is stocks that we think are a reasonable price today. And for whatever reason, we just don't own them. Brett's got five. I've got five. I'm going to go through a little bit of my thinking here as I was building this out. it's five companies equal weighted that's at least how i thought about it five companies equal weighted so these are going to be 20 of my portfolio for each position so for me i would want some blend of durability as well as high growth potential so i'd probably want a few stocks that i think are going to be like true multi-baggers that you know have
Starting point is 00:04:00 clear upside, but maybe slightly riskier business models per se. I would also want some geographical diversification. So I wouldn't want all these companies based in the United States, at least me personally. And I would want some mix of physical versus digital business models. For me, I think this last two years was kind of a good example of, and even though I like a lot of the digital businesses that I still own, the stocks have dropped a lot for me in the last year or so. And having the mix means my whole portfolio isn't going to draw down at the same time, hopefully, if it's some physical businesses compared to digital businesses, where if you have too much industry concentration, I think there's kind of a thematic trade where you end
Starting point is 00:04:49 up having to sell one loser to buy another loser, that kind of thing. And then of course, All the stocks, I think, trade at an attractive valuation. Before I get into my first stock, I'm going to show my full portfolio here because, like I said, there's a lot of starter positions. So it can be, if people are wondering, why wouldn't you talk about this stock or whatever, it's because in this case, this is when my starter positions approach really hurts me. So I'm sharing Port Saito here. This is the portfolio performance tracking tool that we use. And it's got a nice little allocation tab that has a pie chart of all your holdings. So Remitly, Coupang, Airbnb, those are kind of the largest positions for me at the moment. Same with Mexican Airports, one of them, OMAB, Nelnet, Adobe, Wyze. And then as we get into the starter positions, I'm just going to, I'm going to rattle these off because that way when people say, why don't you talk about this company? You'll know why. We've got Adyen as a starter position, Corporacion American Airports, that's like the Argentine airports, DR Horton, Taiwan Semiconductor, Autodesk, Monday.com, Google, and Amazon. I guess you could call starter positions there less than 4%.
Starting point is 00:06:18 So those, it's heavily concentrated for me at the top, but there's a lot of kind of smaller positions that I maybe would want to upgrade today, but we have to exclude them because they're not in the portfolio for this episode. before we move on i do want to say again this is port side oh this solved a huge pain point for both brett and i you literally upload your transaction history it's one click download from your port from your brokerage download all the transactions import it into port side up and it gives you your total return compared to an index it's really nice like tracking this manually would have been an absolute pain. So go ahead, check it out. It's PortSido.com. We'll have a link in the show notes for anyone to check it out. But yeah, PortSido.com one more time. Any comments, Brett, before we get into this? The one thing I like about Port Sido that I will show that
Starting point is 00:07:15 I think a lot of listeners would like as well is it goes through specific trade analysis for you. So you can look at what are your biggest winners and what are your biggest losers from decisions over a period and you can say, oh, well, this was a great performer, but actually on a percentage basis or of my portfolio was tiny. And this other one has been a huge winner, a huge detractor for my performance that can really help you show, oh, am I managing the portfolio at an adequate size for these positions and what's actually been the best decisions to compound my performance. But let's get into the episode. Ryan, we have your first company here. I will disclose it's One I have owned in the past, Wix.com.
Starting point is 00:07:57 Also one you've written about on Emerging Notes, which was helpful for my research. But of all the companies on my list, I'll just go ahead and say this. This is the business model that I like the least. And I used to love this business model. I still think it's okay. But shares of Wix over the last nine years, so since 2017, are basically flat. revenue over that time has gone from 290 million to $2 billion, roughly. So investors have completely soured on this business. And I don't know if it's entirely uncalled for because just
Starting point is 00:08:34 for the basics, Wix is historically has been a drag and drop website building platform. So you could set up your website, make it look nice without having to code at all. And then it's kind of evolved to a promptable website building platform as well so you can kind of there's ai elements as well and you can use that to make the website you want they also have this large like partners network wix does uh which accounts for a lot of the registered or premium subscriptions on their platform and then they have partnerships with uh like service providers so say you're a restaurant and you want order processing you can get the plug-in for that through wix it just makes it it's not just a landing page builder you can actually run a small business using a wix website
Starting point is 00:09:21 so they have six million premium subscribers today just over but that has been flat it's actually been declining over the last two years and the reason i'm excited about this stock is because it looks extremely cheap there seems to be a consensus view that ai is going to destroy website building, specifically business models like Wix. I don't think that's super likely. I think they are losing customers, not necessarily purely to AI. Maybe there's some of that happening, but at the margins, I think they're losing customers or premium subscribers because the space is hyper-competitive. It's a really competitive space. There's a lot of software as a service content management systems out there. Squarespace, Shopify. I think there's
Starting point is 00:10:13 probably some newer AI powered ones that have maybe attracted some customers, but ultimately it's pretty competitive. The core business that Wix true website hosting business, I think it's fine. They've offset a lot, some of those subscriber losses with price increases, but not Great. I'll talk about the valuation. But before I do, I do want to say they also bought base 44, which maybe if you're maybe this is just my algorithm, but I've seen you maybe have seen some ads for them on YouTube before. that seems to be a common destination for them to be running ads. This is, they bought this in June of 2025. So nine months ago, 10 months ago for $80 million. Today, they already have $100 million in ARR. It's been one of the fastest growing AI based application building platforms. And it's actually kind of a really exciting investment, very insane growth. And part of that's been
Starting point is 00:11:19 superchargers by wix pouring ad dollars into it but long story short they've got a decent core business might shed customers slowly but those will likely be offset by pricing gains and a hidden business underneath that i think could honestly be something massive if base 44 were an independent company privately run i think the private valuation would be insane truly maybe that's not the way to think about valuation but yeah is it actually worth that is open ai and philanthropic are they worth 800 billion dollars each not sure but yeah it's true i mean base 44 if you look at the figures it's gone from nothing to 100 million at arr and usage seems to be going off the charts and they're getting a lot of market share within an extremely fast growing category
Starting point is 00:12:03 yeah the pretty much the only reason i am interested in wix right here aside from what we just talked about they just announced that they're acquiring or maybe have now finished acquiring 32 percent of their shares outstanding so let me repeat that 32 percent of their shares they are swallowing in one gulp through a dutch dutch auction tender offer at 92 dollars per share so this company wix a 4.6 billion dollar market cap company is spending 1.7 billion dollars on their buyback i can't think of a bigger vote of confidence from management about feeling like their stock is cheap i think the ev to free cash flow right now is less than nine times so and the stock is now trading below where they just bought a third of their company back at so
Starting point is 00:13:00 again okay business model in my opinion but i think this is a ludicrous valuation Yeah, and if you look at what their market cap probably implied is, maybe $3 billion right now, their free cash flow, and their free cash flow potential is probably even higher just because they're reinvesting a lot in base 44 at the moment. You're maybe trading at five times that market cap. So you're already getting a price where you do okay if they allocate capital correctly, return it to shareholders, and repurchases if the core website building business, which has grown double digits despite the competitive nature of the industry, is in a declined state. But let's keep it moving. We have 10 to cover here, so we want to move quickly. My first one is going to be – and people might be surprised that I've never owned this. Maybe not because I kind of complain about them a lot.
Starting point is 00:13:52 It is Amazon. I'm going to begin with them, even though I rag on them all the time on the Power Hour for Capital Allocation with Andy Jassy, the new CEO, at least five years new, rightfully being called a financial terrorist by a lot of people online in the investing world. So in the last 10 years, let's give some context. Amazon has produced a 600% total return cumulatively versus 275% for the S&P 500 index. However, in the last five years, it is only up 33% while the S&P 500 is up 75%. And I think investors are fed up with two things, uncertain CapEx reinvestment and spending money on science projects with uncertain ROI. Wall Street hates uncertainty, which is a fair point, but also something that I think as an individual, you can take advantage of when you look at something on a five-year time horizon. You can look at Amazon's
Starting point is 00:14:50 CapEx chart, which I've shared in my show notes here with our friends from Fiscal AI. They've gone from, and I have a little smaller, a decade ago, what, a couple billion, maybe 5 billion a decade ago in CapEx. They're doing $130 billion in 2025, or they did $130 billion in 2025, and they're expected $200 billion in 2026. They're going to be cash flow negative for the year. People don't know what this ROIC is going to be on all this AI CapEx spend. The company invested in OpenAI's latest round. They're like the last hyperscaler to do this. We, at the time of recording, the sentiment on OpenAI could not be worse. People think, such as myself, that that company might go bankrupt. I mean, I think a WeWork situation is not entirely out of the question,
Starting point is 00:15:40 and they're taking on loads of debt to do this. So look, there's reason to be uncertain, sure. But if we look at operating earnings, which I think should normalize to cash flow at more maturity with this AI spend. We get just the reinvestment cycle on the cloud infrastructure normalizes. I think it's fine. It will over the long term. I think the company is doing just fine if you look at their operating earnings. They're at an all-time high. It was at $80 billion in 2025. That's a record. I think that should keep climbing. But you have to ask as well, and maybe this is wishful thinking, but how much higher would operating earnings be if they stopped investing in money losing items such as project leo which is the starlink competitor alexa which
Starting point is 00:16:27 has gotten like 100 billion dollars of investment over the last decade to nowhere amazon music device projects international markets like india and brazil twitch remember twitch audible imdb ring blink do you know what blink is no one knows what blink is i don't know this is not a soul. It's just a money pit. There's one medical, Zoox. Zoox might be okay, but that's obviously lost them a lot of money since it generates no revenue today. I mean, I think it's clear that operating earnings could be significantly higher. Maybe it's wishful thinking to think that will be there, but you should still get steady revenue growth from e-comm over the next five years. There's a lot of market share for the overall industry to gain, even in North
Starting point is 00:17:12 America. Cloud growth might be lumpy if the AI bubble pops, but I think it's likely higher five years from now. If we look at revenue, $717 billion in 2025, we grow that 12% annually for the next five years. That's $1.25 trillion in revenue, which I think is entirely reasonable in combining everything together, even with the risk that the AI bubble pops. And if CapEx normalizes, I think that should lead to really strong cash generation. Operating margin is 11% today. I think that gets to 15% over the next five years pretty easily, just because cloud's going to have a higher percentage of revenue. Third-party seller services will have a higher percentage of revenue, and advertising will have a higher percentage of revenue, which
Starting point is 00:17:55 are all higher margins in the core business. I think they could easily get to 20% if they wanted to, but I wouldn't expect them to have this level of financial discipline. We apply that 15% margin, $1.25 trillion in revenue. We're at $190 billion in operating earnings versus a current market cap of $2.25 trillion. A lot of numbers, a lot of numbers, but what is that? Roughly 11 to 12 times earnings, something like that. Five years out, feels like you get a decent outcome owning Amazon over the next five years. However, it doesn't make it into my portfolio today because I'd rather own it. I want sub 10x 2030 earnings. I'm just a little greedy. I think you do good, but not great. It's why it's on my watch list and I'm waiting for a better price.
Starting point is 00:18:43 So two questions for you. First one, what business line do you think will have more revenue in 2030? AWS or online stores? what's online stores at is that all e-com or north america or that is all e-com let me double check so online stores today all e-com and online stores about twice what aws is at right now oh only twice yeah yeah there's third-party seller services is different oh oh who knows maybe a third-party seller takes higher share i don't know if that's the right question because it would really matter for its first party versus third party it's more like they don't report this which is annoying but is overall gmv growing i think so here's my follow-up question to own
Starting point is 00:19:36 amazon do you need to have a view on whether or not the current accounting for gpu depreciation schedules is valid. Yeah, that's fair. That's why I think you needed more of a discount to what these earnings power could be. And you need to expect potentially lumpy growth if there is any fallout from an ad bubble popping. I'm not saying it will. Again, we've talked about this plenty of times. Just some sort of outcome you need to maybe be pricing in or expecting or what have you. If you're a regular listener to Chit Chat Stocks, then you've probably heard us talk about Interactive Brokers. Here are three reasons why we think Interactive Brokers is better than any other brokerage platform. Number one, they've got it all. Stocks, bonds, ETFs, options,
Starting point is 00:20:23 crypto, you name it. 170 markets, 36 countries, 28 currencies. Number two, they've got best in class pricing. They have zero commissions on US listed stocks and ETFs and offer margin rates up to 54% lower than the industry. Number three, you can ditch the separate high yield cash account. Interactive Brokers offers up to 3.14% interest on instantly available cash held in your investment account. Head on over to IBKR.com. Rates subject to change. Margin involves risk. Restrictions apply. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. Okay, let's shift gears to my second company for the day. This is, I guess, sort of a controversial one. Battleground.
Starting point is 00:21:04 it's a battleground stock uber i honestly think maybe the reason i'm so interested in this business is probably through like anecdotal evidence i still use the service pretty regularly and every time i think this is like a pretty phenomenal network but the obvious concern i'm just going to get right to it the obvious concern from everyone is autonomous vehicles like what happens in a fully autonomous future where does uber sit what value do they provide specifically waymo as they're kind of i believe in u.s major u.s cities they're kind of the only truly operational one generating revenue so and correct me if i'm wrong on that but there there are some others that have made progress zooks being one of the ones included there but i believe
Starting point is 00:21:53 waymo is the only one that's fully operational i believe well tesla in your your city of austin right or is that uh i mean the only one that's hard to know what's true there okay i have never seen a tesla cyber cab driving around um but maybe maybe it's possible the well okay waymo is by far the leader let's say that yeah here's why i think uber's network will still be valuable and difficult to replace even in a av centric av heavy future first one and we've talked about this on the show before when aria came on and pitched uber oscillating demand needs flexible supply so for anyone that uber's posted these charts before of of what does demand look like for uber like ride demand uh at various times in the day and it it oscillates there's uh i think its peak
Starting point is 00:22:55 after work is kind of the highest and then you'll see like friday nights there's a massive spike and then there's obviously very little demand in the middle of the night big events are going to require a extra uh supply of drivers as well it presents a difficult dynamic for waymo which is either in order to meet that heavy demand at peak times, they have to have enough cars, but then those cars are potentially sitting idle the rest of the day or they're having too much supply. Or worse, they're not servicing all the customers and the customers are frustrated because there isn't enough rides available because there isn't enough driver supply. Uber solves that. They can incentivize more drivers to join. Uber driver's sitting on his couch, say,
Starting point is 00:23:45 here's a $25 bonus to go pick someone up from a Taylor Swift concert, whatever. There's ways they can kind of flex supply at various times. The second one, and this is where I imagine you may have some disagreements with me, is getting actual demand for Waymo. So let's say Waymo does increase its supply so much so that it can pick everyone up from the Taylor Swift concert, which would be probably uneconomical. But let's say they did. How will they get enough demand to go directly to Waymo? Now, I've heard you say, well, if they just have a plug in on maps or something like that. But right now, I think a lot of people, when they are starting their ride sharing journey, they're going directly to Uber. So like, you know, you're leaving the
Starting point is 00:24:36 concert you're leaving whatever you're going to uber you're not necessarily going to maps unless you're walking obviously they can spend a lot of money on advertising um but again it i think uber has that supply or that demand already it's i think it's an uphill battle for waymo to get people to go directly to them on the app any thoughts uh yeah i'm gonna disagree with that one alphabet is what seven platforms with two billion users so whatever city they go in i think they'll be able to easily advertise and say download the waymo app try it out and then yeah pretty easy good gmail youtube search what what have you and that's free like they they already own the platforms yeah i mean they can pre-install everything on an android device that's
Starting point is 00:25:32 Yeah, I forgot about that. That's also nice. I think it's kind of this weird, like, where do they bridge the gap? Because it feels to me like if they poured a whole bunch of money into marketing the Waymo app and everyone went there, they wouldn't be able to service everyone. People would get frustrated. They'd go back to Uber, that kind of thing. yeah you see that problem happening in places like san francisco and austin but why not download both people have lyft you always have lyft at the backup there's also the other competitor that's pretty small but it's called empower it's not it's not in the city i've ever lived in but just price check because as we're going to see with this profitability here who who's not afraid to hit that pricing lever and uh if i see if i see a bad number i'm definitely going just going over the lift i mean i price check well i used to price check all the time
Starting point is 00:26:28 and i was it's been rare that i found a cheaper price on lift lately uh the third one though i will talk about is in a world where other av companies do make progress like how long until there are other viable av companies in certain cities like i think there's long long you think Yeah. I mean, maybe in three. Maybe they could be in three cities. It takes a long time. And there's regulations.
Starting point is 00:26:58 I mean, they're, what is, Waymo's in what, like 12 cities? It's taken five years? Something like that? We've got a whole bunch of Zookses running around here in Austin, but that seems to be the test city for every AV company, so. Yeah, yeah. Texas is pretty easy to test, Texas and Arizona. You know, good weather.
Starting point is 00:27:16 I would say that if, I'm going to be optimistic here and say there are some other AV companies that succeed. If that does happen and Waymo decides they want to go purely direct, people will stick with whoever can provide them the lowest cost rides, which unless they want to run Waymo as a loss leader forever, I would guess that with more driver competition, let's say there's two or three other AV companies on Uber, plus the actual normal drivers, So with all that supply competition, I would guess Uber remains the low cost provider. So my opinion. Low cost for who? Lowest cost rides. What do you mean, for customers? Yes, lowest price rides for customers. If they have all the drivers plus all the AVs, other AV companies, two to three AV companies, let's say, they're going to have so many drivers that they can continue to offer the lowest price rides, whereas you're throttling demand.
Starting point is 00:28:21 Do they have data that they're the lowest price? Because I feel like there's a lot of anecdotes that they price gouge. i i mean i i don't know but isn't all isn't the lowest price going to go to whoever has the most driver supply well the data i've seen from the company empower which again is only a couple cities they have a different pricing model where i think it's like a subscription or something for the drivers and they they charge about half the price of ubers i mean you can look at it it's it's significantly cheaper and yeah maybe it depends from city to city person to person there's also data out there that uh people again it's it's internet sleuthing but people that are
Starting point is 00:29:06 subscribed to uber one get served higher prices and then have a discount on top of that so the pricing is extremely dynamic maybe it's impossible to tell but i i would be hesitant to say they're always the low price cost provider maybe the best value because you get the quickest ride but i don't see how they get over half off when gross margins for uber are like high 30s well that's their net i mean that's their net right like it's technically that the unit economics can be it doesn't matter i think but who's what drivers are gonna go for that oh no the drivers keep again i can look up empowered business model but i'm pretty sure the drivers keep more because like i would be shocked if that's like going to sustainably if they can keep costs that
Starting point is 00:29:58 low forever um but again i do think there's a lot of anecdata that comes out about uber and the reality is they have 200 million monthly active customers i think if there was a better alternative like lyft if they're if lyft was actually better uh they wouldn't have 200 million active customers the the other part here because i know we're going long on this one i like dara i think he's done a good job running the company he's increased margins while also keeping stakeholders generally happy i think as a rider i'm happy i they have tons of drivers so obviously they're keeping them satisfied enough to remain on the platform and uh he's done a good job moderating stock-based compensation uh while seeing this profit inflection long story short
Starting point is 00:30:51 i think growth of more than 10 percent revenue for the next i call it five to ten years i think is very feasible especially we haven't even talked about uber ease but i think they're in a good position there. And I think margins can continue to expand. EV to EBIT today is 27 times. So it's not screaming cheap potentially in my mind, but if you can get 15 to 20%, 15% plus per share earnings growth over the next five to 10 years, I think you can generate solid returns. Yeah. And they do have, we don't need to go into all the details, but a lot of room for expansion. I'm showing a chart here, a KPI chart from our friends at Fiscal.ai. This is a good time to shout them out. Fiscal.ai slash chitchat. Use our link in the show notes. Get 15% off any paid
Starting point is 00:31:41 plan. We love them. I've been using the new annotation product on conference calls. It's saved me tons of time, and it's just helpful when doing stock research. Again, it's well worth the money. Check them out. I have a chart here, one of their KPIs that I like to look at for Uber. monthly active platform customers or really monthly active users. We're at 200 million. It's growing at 18% over the last decade or so. What do you think this is at five to 10 years from now? Okay. When I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my head of office has a forever setting. An IG private wealth advisor
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Starting point is 00:33:07 300 million they also have a big presence internationally which i think it's uh understated uh there's just the income i don't know how many people can afford ubers internationally well maybe maybe more than two i probably i'm sure the price is different right i mean the price is localized right at those prices they can't wait what do you mean like i'm saying uh in a lot of these poor poor countries like the addressable market of customers is not the entire population by far it's probably 10 15 there's just so many frankly poor people out there worldwide sure but i mean grab had to buy uber's business for a reason like it was a it had a lot of market share in southeast asia which was one of the lower income
Starting point is 00:34:08 areas some of those countries were yeah i mean there's definitely room to grow from 200 million for sure we've gone long on this one let's get to your second stock let's see what do we have here all right this is one you can't talk about for maybe an hour if you want to it's pretty complicated business but i'll keep it short it's new holdings new bank uh tickers and you this is a stock i'm actually going to be covering with a full research report on emerging moats later this quarter oops and my headphones uh accidentally hit my headphones out there so new bank they fascinate me because of their speed of customer acquisition. It's gone from just 3 million active customers at the end of 2017 to 109 million at the end of 2025. And this combination of, I think, poorly operated
Starting point is 00:34:48 banks in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, which are the three places they operate, combined with smartphone usage and digital payments adoption has been kind of a lollapalooza, maybe is the right term, tailwind that's been a huge opportunity for companies like NewBank to fill. And this is why it's been one of the big winners in the space the bank mainly makes money from interest income you know credit cards personal loans and then fees on credit card or debit card swipes as well as from additional products sold to customers who are not uh that are not within the lending business and like most digital banks it has lower overhead costs that has enabled superior roes return on equity while giving customers what they want which is access to credit you know saving time
Starting point is 00:35:32 membership benefits. For example, this is the anecdote I like to use. The traditional banks in places like Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil, they'll force people to go to a branch to get money, take cash out. There's going to be exorbitant fees on your ATMs that work half the time. It's terrible. And they'll make people wait an hour in line to get any sort of service. It's ridiculous. And the hurdle to a better business model was so easy, which is why a company like NewBank succeeds. Now, with greater scale, I think NewBank will be able to leverage its overhead costs in these three core markets. Again, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. It does spend a lot on marketing, but it was actually only $246 million in 2024 versus over $8 billion in revenue after
Starting point is 00:36:20 credit losses in that same year. We don't have the 2025 numbers yet. I don't think the 20F was out, or at least I couldn't find it. And I think this is really astonishing efficiency and shows how starved the Latino market is for workable banking solutions or were starved before Mercado Pago and NewBank showed up. I think a good metric to use again for them is monthly revenue per active customer, which has continued to climb this along with steady customer growth in Mexico and Colombia. They're already half of the population in Brazil, but Mexico and Colombia, they're at about 10% and can keep growing. That can drive revenue growth for really years to come. You can sprinkle in some call options from the US expansion, which is a bit uncertain, but hey,
Starting point is 00:37:02 there could be some opportunity there. And then you could have some other Latin American markets that they could expand to. And I think this will be a much larger business in five years. If we look at consolidated net income, oh gosh, I had a screenshot that's small. I think we're at $2.8 billion in 2025 versus something like $15 billion in revenue. And that income has scaled up from about break-even, and they've gained a ton of leverage on that. So I think that leverage will continue. Again, they're not spending that much in marketing to acquire and retain customers. It's a lot on regulation, setting up this stuff in local markets, getting the banking license, which should scale because it's just a pure smartphone application that really the software
Starting point is 00:37:47 is going to be the same country to country. You just have to change the language. I think revenue after credit losses could reach $25 billion within a few years, and net income could honestly reach $10 billion. That's not out of the question. And the stock trades at a $70 billion market cap. Again, on current net income, it's not that cheap. You have to expect a lot of operating leverage here, which might be the wrong term for a bank, but I think listeners understand. But if you think that net income can get to $10 billion like I can over a five-year period, it feels pretty cheap to me, even though it's a bank and they just have executed perfectly. Really, really hard to find.
Starting point is 00:38:26 Besides the fact that they're lending to maybe, we mentioned like poor customers in places like Brazil and Mexico, that's what they target, kind of the underbank population. Yeah, that's maybe the biggest flaw of their business model that could pop up and create some headwinds if they go through a rough patch but besides that it feels very very cheap to me and they've executed flawlessly over the last decade yeah this is one that i was hoping to have on my list today but i gotta get to the doc first gotta get to the doc first brett had it in there uh so five years ago new bank had five billion dollars in customer deposits today they have 42 billion dollars in customer deposits so you can see how much
Starting point is 00:39:09 uh money they are attracting to their app for context banco do brazil which i think is one of the largest uh other banks traditional banks in brazil there's also like there's always it's always just the bank of blank bank of brazil bank of chile bank of argentina bank of mexico yeah just they're gonna have a terrible customer experience from yeah banco do brazil has 170 billion in So, I mean, there is still a lot of low hanging fruit, I imagine. And what kind of interest is Banco do Brasil giving to their customers? I would guess it's extraordinarily low. This is like, feels like the oldest playbook, like just give more to customers, classic innovators dilemma, essentially. I like NewBank as well. You want to hear an anecdote? I was in Colombia, and Banco de Colombia just stole my money. Like, I deposited it, and it didn't show up in my account.
Starting point is 00:40:09 No way. I used the ATM, and it's like, oh, it's malfunctioning. Wait. Oh, I can't get my money back. And there's no one there to help you. And I was like, this is $30, $40. I'm not going to wait an hour long. Well, and yeah, that's, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:24 you can see why Mercado Paco and NewBank succeed. All right, let's keep it moving, though, Ryan. your third one here we're going to move into a stock i've owned again not i don't own it right now but it's one of our mexican airport operators yes uh i mentioned at the top of the show i wanted to have a balance of durable physical businesses along with some of the digital ones i've now given two digital businesses so this is about as durable as you can get i think airports are extremely durable businesses uh and i probably could have taken any of the mexican airport operators that i don't own but i just decided to go with this one so this is pacifico airports technical name
Starting point is 00:41:09 is grupo aeroportario del pacifico but we're just going to call it pacifico they operate 14 airports in total the biggest ones being in guadalajara tijuana cabo and puerto vallarta it's worth noting And Tijuana, part of the reason it's such a popular airport is because a lot of people who are flying to San Diego actually fly through Tijuana and then they take the pedestrian bridge across the border. That's my brother's hack. Half the price. You park your car in San Diego, walk across. It's beautiful. And it's probably going to continue to be a boost to travel for Tijuana because I've read a lot of, there's like a lot of environmental restrictions for San Diego for expanding their airport. So they're not, they've been limited in how much they can expand, which for Tijuana just means extra travel.
Starting point is 00:42:00 nimby bull case well again we don't have much time but the location of the san diego airport is not ideal for expansion it's like in the middle of the city okay yeah well i imagine that bodes well for the tijuana airport and pacifico specifically anyways we have talked a lot about airports on this show if you're a regular listener you know that i love these business models they are natural monopolies we just talked about it it's hard to a it's hard to expand airports it's hard to build a second airport in most cities i mean i think oftentimes you literally can't you don't have don't have the rights to or whatever and the airports have specifically the mexican airports have built in price escalators into their contracts for the
Starting point is 00:42:49 aeronautical revenue so the airlines they have agreements with the airlines that say basically your total fees are going to go up whatever five percent or i think it's inflation linked so uh good inflation hedge there the non-aeronautical side so think about like the shops in the airports they're unregulated but pacifico uh in their contracts with the third-party merchants have built-in price escalators again so lots of pricing power given the limited geography for these airports this is why they've sustained above 50 operating margins for a decade and then on top of the structural benefits of just being an airport i'm pretty optimistic about mexico generally i think traffic both business travel and tourist travel uh will continue to grow mexico
Starting point is 00:43:37 we've talked about this before has a great population age pyramid and the average income per capita continues to rise which makes me think travel domestically will continue to grow as Mexicans have more discretionary spending. And then beyond that, I think tourism will be rock solid because it's hard to replicate the Baja Peninsula. It's harder for someone else to build that. So a side note, Guadalajara is one of the host cities for the World Cup, which I think could be a little nice boost to travel come, what would that be, Q2, Q3. So maybe we get a slight elevation there. The EV to EBITDA is 12 times for a business that has increased EBITDA by 14 percent a year for a decade. I think that seems very reasonable. And I think it's just really hard to go wrong
Starting point is 00:44:26 owning any of the Mexican airports. Yeah, we have a nice chart here of group operating income from Pacifico Airports, from our friend at Fiscal.ai. I should mention again, fiscal.ai slash chitchat, get 15 percent off any paid plan. I mean, it's just up outside of the pandemic up and to the right there's currency fluctuations of course but hey it's a pretty darn good business and for anyone that's doubting the world cup stuff i was looking at for stock that we both own that would be on this list but we already own it uh group of omab which is the one that owns the monterey airport and they had i think a qualifying game between iraq and bolivia and the city seemed to be flooded with people from Iraq,
Starting point is 00:45:13 which is extremely far away, so they had to fly in. And think about it, that's a qualifying game. It's not just the people going to the match, it's a lot of people going to the city to be, and these are, again, going to be richer customers because the tickets are extremely expensive. Only certain people can afford to fly. So anyone that doubts the little tail in there
Starting point is 00:45:32 that there could be in 2026, I think maybe rethink that. All right, that moves to mine. The other Mexican airport operator that I've never owned, Grupo Aeropuerto Suroeste, I'll just call it the southern airport operator in Mexico or Azure. Maybe not because Azure is Microsoft Azure. Well, we'll call it the southern airport operator. But unlike Grupo OMAB or maybe even Grupo Pacifico there, this is a company that has reinvested in new airport concessions to just diversify away from now being just a Mexican airport player to a full Latin American airport operator. They've been a huge winner. I mean, just look at the total returns of some of these stocks. They've been 100 beggars since going public pretty much in 2001, which has been a total
Starting point is 00:46:15 return category of 20% per year for over two decades. Ryan mentioned why these are great businesses. So maybe I'll just move on to talk about what they do specifically. You have three different regions before their recent acquisition, which I'll talk about later. You have Mexico, Colombia, and Puerto Rico. Total traffic in 2025 was 71.5 million people coming from Cancun, number one place. 29 million total airport passengers. That was down 3.5% year over year. There's San Juan, Puerto Rico, which had a total of 13.6 million passengers. And then Medellín, Colombia, 11.2 million total passengers. These three cities make up 75% of Azure's traffic. Like Medellin for the last few decades has been, you know, it's gone from being the most dangerous city in the world to a place that a lot of people go for tourism now.
Starting point is 00:47:06 So there should be steady growth there, especially if the Colombian economy keeps growing. Cancun, there's a bit of a risk because people are nervous about Cancun peaking. It's just that there's so many tourists there that there's just fears. It's an entire tourist place. There could be replacements in other areas across the Caribbean or Mexico, especially for American, European, Canadian tourists and tourists from all over, really. You talk to people in South America, they want to go to the Yucatan Peninsula. But I still think it's a good asset, but it's one where it has been, like, the fears, I think, are justified for Cancun being such a large percentage of the portfolio, Which brings us to a recent decision they made that I think should, it maybe gets me a little more excited about owning, potentially owning the stock.
Starting point is 00:48:01 And it's a blockbuster acquisition of different airports from a company called Motiva. The name doesn't matter, but they have stakes in airports from Quito, the capital of Ecuador, San Jose, Costa Rica, Curacao, and a few Brazilian airports combined. They did 45 million passengers in 2024. The price was only 10 times EBITDA for Motiva's share of earnings for these airports. They're not the best airport assets. I mean, Quito, it's not Cancun. This isn't necessarily known as a travel destination.
Starting point is 00:48:32 It's had safety issues in recent years. These aren't also the best Brazilian airports. You don't have Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, but 10 times EBITDA is very cheap for a business that could see, I think, a general travel tailwind if these economies grow, and then overall pricing power,
Starting point is 00:48:46 as we've talked about many times from airport operators. plus you are diversified more from the cancun travel risk the purchase price was 2.56 billion dollars in usd which azur is going to finance with cash on hand and debt we can see from this chart i have and anyone can look it up again on fiscal ai that their net debt has gone from negative to positive but if i mean they were at what what am i negative net debt yeah so they had They had a net cash position going into this acquisition. And now they have about $1.1 billion compared to $1.1 billion in EBITDA before this transaction. So it's not like they're over-levering their balance sheet to acquire these businesses.
Starting point is 00:49:29 You can add in some EBITDA from the acquisition, about $250 million, and we can probably get to $1.5 billion in annual EBITDA sometime soon, you know, as long as these assets keep growing and they can be run more efficiently at greater scale. The stock is currently trading at below $12 billion on an enterprise value. So you could be at sub eight times maybe for 2026, maybe 2027. If it takes a little longer to integrate, I think that's not bad. And it could be great timing if airports get hit with this oil scare. Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice. I want to help my kids and I want to give back to the community.
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Starting point is 00:50:32 Blend wellness into your coffee routine with the Coffee Plus range. infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee you love with added B vitamins, like Coffee Plus B12 to help support immune function and Coffee Plus B6 to keep your day moving. Or go with the flow and choose Ginseng Delight, our new double espresso with ginseng extract. Whatever lies ahead, don't change your morning. Let your morning change you. Discover Coffee Plus on Nespresso.com. Yeah, these businesses, I think they are rock solid all of them all the mexican airport operators and the other part you know you talked
Starting point is 00:51:11 about these not being sort of the tier one airports or the tier one cities they're expanding into i tend to think like i feel like global travel is just going to continue to outpace like expectations as oil goes to 200 for an extended period true but i think if you look out 10 years you're going to get really solid global travel growth yeah just think about the san jose airport in costa rica it's probably the only big one there a lot of people like going to costa rica from the united states and canada among other places yeah i think that's just going to keep growing yeah this actually made me uh the airports might be at the top of my list from this list specifically well our last ones are not just uh airports and we'll try to go through
Starting point is 00:52:05 quickly so we don't go for two hours on this episode yeah let's move fast here my fourth one it's it's a bit redundant because i already picked uber but i'm going with another ride sharing marketplace uh grab so we've done a full episode on this one as well but it's basically the uber of southeast asia it's kind of what it's been referred to as uh it's also uber is the largest shareholder in grab and dara the ceo of uber is on the grab board of directors so a little bit of ride sharing inception here anyways for those unfamiliar grab is the uber plus door dash slash instacart in southeast asia so they started as a mobility service a ride sharing very similar to uber one one minor difference that i would call out is they actually rent the cars to
Starting point is 00:52:59 their drivers so gravel partner with auto companies like byd or hyundai and they'll buy or lease fleets that they then sell or rent to the driver so i don't think it's meaningful for them financially. They're probably doing this basically at cost, but it helps them increase supply of drivers because that would be one of the biggest barriers is someone that wants to offer rides, get on Grab, start earning income. Maybe they don't have a car, don't have a vehicle. Grab helps them finance that. So this business is pretty mature. The mobility side of things, It's at 50 percent EBITDA margins. They are the leader in seven out of eight of the Southeast Asian markets. The only one that they are kind of neck and neck is with Gojek in Indonesia, which is the largest population wise. So anyways, second business for them is deliveries. Again, similar to Uber Eats. Actually, it was Uber Eats for a while. So they got into this business because in 2018, they acquired Uber in Southeast Asia. And it was this big transaction that gave Uber the stake in Grab.
Starting point is 00:54:13 so uber eats had already kind of done the heavy lifting in terms of getting the merchants onto their platform and then grab just kind of progressed the business from there they already sort of had the lead to begin with they've expanded into grocery delivery as well and even parcel delivery so like last mile uh parcel shipments this is the largest revenue contributor but it's slightly lower margin than the core mobility business so i do think eventually this will probably be biggest in terms of profit contribution but we'll see and then the last one here is grab pay so this is where people kind of think like why on earth are they in fintech it seems like every tech company wants to be in fintech but they kind of started this in the
Starting point is 00:55:02 same way that Mercado Libre started Mercado Pago, which was they needed it basically. So in the early years, payment methods between drivers and riders was a big issue because the region was heavily cash-based. So in 2016, Grab introduced GrabPay, which allowed both the drivers and riders to have a secure cashless payment system. It was particularly helpful for drivers because they would hold a bunch of cash in their cab or their car and they'd be the victims of theft over and over so this was uh very much a solution to a specific problem but it's now kind of graduated to buy now pay later merchant financing auto loans for drivers working capital loans and some others so this is probably the biggest question mark i have is like
Starting point is 00:55:48 how, what is the end state for this business? Like, are they becoming a bank? Do I need to figure out what default rates are going to look like for all these loans? But why do I like this business? I think they're operating in basically a winner-take-all or a winner-take-most industry, and they are the winner for most of their regions. If you want food delivery, you go to the platform with the most restaurants you want to ride, you go to the place with the cheapest rides, which is usually the one with the most drivers let's grab it's one of those self-reinforcing network effects that i've talked about on the show a bunch but i really like these because it allows them the network effect allows them to get to profitability or control sort of their own
Starting point is 00:56:33 destiny they can naturally grow without having to pour money into marketing and you've seen that they've they've gone from like it's the ideal operating leverage chart for anyone that's trying to visualize it whereas they were just hemorrhaging money and now this last two quarters they trailing 12 months they've had gap operating profits so uh evita evita a 40 times looks expensive but evita margins are just now turning the corner uh so you should see a big inflection there i like it i think they've got the guiding hand of dara on the board too who has gone through the journey that grab is trying to go through to profitability while keeping stakeholders happy i mean they've done they've done that well so uh i like this business yeah it might be even cheaper
Starting point is 00:57:23 than uber and if you're worried about the av risk like i am probably less so in these markets yeah gonna be tough i think if like if you go to some of these markets i think you'll see what i mean a lot of these are motorcycles by the way or exactly yeah you haven't lived until you bought a yeah you can buy and just hop on the back yeah that's the thing you haven't lived until you bought a two dollar one i'd never do it a two dollar uh moto right all right let's move on to my fourth one it's one i've covered recently and i'll be quick here anyone wants more details we did a defense stock episode that covers it a little bit more in depth it's called lido's corporation. It's a stock we've covered. They do, they operate extremely boring stuff. Software for
Starting point is 00:58:11 defense and other government agencies such as veteran health care. I already feel the listeners falling asleep. The stock is down 20% from its highs. I think they had a revenue miss last quarter. It was a 4% decline, some margin compression. But if I look at bookings, I really see no concern. There might be some lumpiness just in contract stuff. Here's a quote from the Press release, net bookings totaled $5.6 billion in the fourth quarter and $17.5 billion for 2025, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3 and 1.0, respectively. As a result, our backlog at the end of fiscal year 2025 was $49 billion. Revenue was $17 billion last year.
Starting point is 00:58:49 It's grown in the double digits over the last 10 years. And again, you have that high level of backlog versus revenue. I think there should be pricing power across all these type of contracts. It should be sticky. should be around for a long time. It's also working on intelligence software that should be a growth avenue, and hypersonic missile software, which should be a really big growth avenue in the years ahead. The government is proposing a $1.5 trillion defense budget and a larger growth for things like the Space Force and Golden Dome, which would be a huge jump if
Starting point is 00:59:21 implemented. Operating margin has expanded a little bit for them coming out of the pandemic, but I think at only 12%, the business is not at a huge risk of margin compression over the long term. We're at a PE of 16.5, EV to EBIT 11.5, and they buy back stock consistently. I kind of think you get a good return going forward here. This is not going to be your hundred bagger, but maybe over the 30-year period, which is fine. But still, look, I feel like it's really, really hard to lose with this thing if they keep hammering home the buyback, even if the stock falls yeah this seems like one of those super boring companies that operates in a niche niche of a niche that no one cares about that's going to produce better than market returns and
Starting point is 01:00:10 it's probably one that's very easy to own like they don't make you think too much on a quarterly basis would be my guess i'm going to move to my fifth one because we uh we don't want to go too long for listeners. I guess any other thoughts on Leidos? Nope. Let's keep moving. Close it up quickly. Okay. So my fifth stock is American Express. I was thinking about going with Ferrari or Hermes because they're both in big drawdowns. Ooh, Hermes would have been a good one. Forgot about them. Yeah. They've moved up my watch list for sure. But I think as I was kind of forecasting growth, I would guess that American Express is going to go faster than Ferrari or Hermes from here and it trades at a cheaper multiple so it's a little hard to justify picking the other ones
Starting point is 01:00:58 a little more terminal value risk but maybe we can talk about that potentially yeah so yeah anyway uh american express stock is on 20 drawdown it's still been a great last five years for them they're up 122 total return a good chunk that has been driven by multiple expansion not all of it the performance has been really good too but if you go back to american express five to ten years ago i think the brand was i i would argue not it was different i wouldn't say it was not as strong but it was different it was seen i think as a lot more for ultra rich or like the wealthy and a lot of people would say like american express isn't accepted everywhere even though like it was accepted in most places but there was kind of a
Starting point is 01:01:48 stigma around american express not being accepted maybe i'm misremembering the time frames but i know that was a common thing and people would complain about that like oh be careful with american express you know 10 to 15 years ago yeah today merchant acceptance rate is equal is virtually equal to visa and mastercard it's pretty much everywhere i can't remember the last time i went to a place where they didn't accept amex uh and b the second point here they've added 40 million new card holders which for a pretty much a decade they added no card holders up until like 2019 and now they've added 40 million new ones while still maintaining an aspirational brand i think the second i think that is really important because it's hard to do if you introduce
Starting point is 01:02:37 if you've had 100 million card holders for a decade and all of a sudden you add 40 50 million new cardholders in the span of three or four years there's a lot of risk that you erode your brand that maybe it's not seen as as aspirational anymore but american express i think has done a good job bridging the gap the example that i hear often is uh people will say like oh american express is dead now their lounges are always packed the lines are too long and all that tells me is there's more pricing power i mean they they can continue to make it harder to get into the lounges and for people that aren't familiar with how they've done this they've tiered out their card structure in a way where you can become a cardholder and kind of get acquainted with the
Starting point is 01:03:28 american express ecosystem of products without having to pay a thousand dollars a month or uh what is it a thousand dollars a year 895 uh is that the highest tier yes that is the highest here yeah so you can get entry-level american express products but if you want all the benefits all the loungers priority access all the you know stuff that makes you feel special then you start to have to pay up and if you look at their business the average fee per card has increased every single quarter for basically a decade and now it's average fee per card i believe has grown at 12 a year for the last six years so tons of pricing power there and they've been able to grow their cardholder base in the process so that kind of shows you how well they've done at bridging the
Starting point is 01:04:22 gap here by the way they also for anyone less familiar with the business they earn they own kind of the full stack compared to other cardholders so they earn swipe fees they earn subscription fees for having their cards and then they earn carried interest on their interest on carried balances as the actual underlying bank. Today, they try to trade at a price to earnings just under 20 times. Earnings per share has grown at 12% a year since 2019. I think they'll be able to keep that up. Again, obviously, I wish I was getting it cheaper, but I would not be upset owning it at these prices. Yeah, the one downside that I think makes a little sense, but I believe they have the moat to insulate themselves from this threat given their membership program. It's
Starting point is 01:05:07 it's really just like a travel and entertainment membership ecosystem i'd say especially if you if you have a city that has how i like to think about it if you have a city with one of their lounges and you fly like five times a year it's probably worth it honestly like the if you just want to be value investor oriented and not care about the actual card uh the the one downside though is the rise of people not accepting or adding in different credit card fees as a merchant that type of stuff or people talk about stable coins people talk about a lot of different things that could disrupt the uh card charge fees i think that could happen over the next 20 to 30 years something like that but there's ways they'll be able to adapt and i think they'll still have
Starting point is 01:05:58 the membership ecosystem i'm not a believer in the stable coin risk honestly i've thought about it a lot for a number of my holdings and the no one no one seems to have the solution for the off-ramps which yeah and that's a totally like stable coins i don't think disrupts amex but i feel like if there's more of hey you get a five percent surcharge if you use a credit card versus x solution uh whatever it may be debit card what have you but i think that could be a headwind for them because you see that pop up more uh now and again but sometimes if you get three percent cash back you're like yeah whatever i don't know maybe we're just saying that i don't know maybe if you're pinching pennies you you might think about that but yeah that's that's
Starting point is 01:06:51 kind of, I think that's the one risk. Okay. Let's move to the last one for the day. And then I've got some questions to wrap up. All right. This is one we haven't talked about in a long time. It is Hagerty. It's a small cap who's actually CFO, maybe old CFO now. We actually had in the podcast like five years ago. Hagerty is a specialty car insurer for collectibles. So limited edition items, vintage vehicles, stuff like that. Projects people want to do. Hey, got this classic 1965 Chevy something. It also operates a membership model that gives people roadside assistance, discounts, and access to experiences, and now is expanding into a marketplace for auctioning off vehicles within its niche. Growth has been very solid. Total
Starting point is 01:07:35 written premium up 16% annually since 2018. Loss ratios are pretty stable, and marketplace revenue has gone from nothing to over $100 million in just a short period. Net income has grown as ditched some weak ancillary businesses to focus on insurance, membership, and auctions. That's what I kind of see as the three things they're focusing on. It was $140 million in 2025. Stock trades in a market cap of $3.65 billion or a PE of 26. However, looking forward a few years, it may be cheap. They just made a deal with Markel, its partner, to stop ceding premiums to the company and is now going to take 100% of the risk and earnings of underwriting itself. I think this is a smart move, given how durable this model is.
Starting point is 01:08:20 Really, the beauty of insuring specialty cars is that people take extreme care with them, and there's just the loss ratios aren't that bad. As a part of this deal, Hagerty is going to report an accounting loss this year, but it expects to grow premiums by 15% year-over-year and post-adjusted earnings of $240 million. I think double-digit growth and the potential diversification of the marketplace model, which is growing 80% year over year last quarter, leads them to, I think, you could get a PE closer to 10 faster than we think versus the current market cap. I don't love the price today, but I think if you're a believer in the marketplace, it keeps growing. And kind of over a three-year
Starting point is 01:09:02 period, you see that net income trajectory as we get to the other side of this Markel deal. I feel like earnings are going to grow extremely quickly. PE comes down. It's a great business. It's kind of a monopoly player in its niche, I think. And I feel like it's durable. Yeah. Yeah, I like this. I checked. It is, I believe, a former, former CFO that we had on the podcast.
Starting point is 01:09:28 So it's been a while. Maybe a little yellow flag. A lot of executive turnover, but they've changed their strategy quite a bit. They were a stack. A lot of stuff going on. You know, it could be a nice story for people that want to dig in deep and actually look at the true fundamentals of the business. Yeah, let's, since we're running up on time here, we have now discussed 10 companies that we would be interested in if we were rebuilding our portfolio from scratch. I'm going to go through these just one more time so everyone remembers.
Starting point is 01:09:57 We've got Wix, Amazon, Uber, New Holdings, Grupo Pacifico Airports, the Southern Airports, both Mexican airports, Grab Holdings, Leidos, American Express, and Hagerty. Brett, of the five that you had, what would you feel most inclined to add a position to today? Southern Airports would be number one. I think the price is pretty good because people aren't really looking at what the pro forma EBITDA could be over the next few years. All right. Of the five I had, which would you be most inclined? Let's see. I'm trying to remember.
Starting point is 01:10:44 I might say Grab. You can't say the airports again. I might say Grab. I might say Grab. I think people would probably – and then – well, I've owned Wix, so I can't choose them. But I probably would put them on the list. they're on my watch list for sure. I like Grab because I think that profit inflection chart is probably getting underrated. People just go, ah, it's trading at 40 times earnings. Why?
Starting point is 01:11:07 But you look at that, their potential for margin expansion seems pretty robust. Yeah, I like when companies are just turning the corner because I think you get a lot of people just discarding it on valuation. For me, of the five I had, I would, i might be with you on grab they just made a big acquisition though which kind of complicates things but grab might be up there of your five i think i would go with new bank you gotta love new bank i just saw a tweet that 50 of uh like i i don't i hate calling them just poor people but whatever the lower incomes in brazil are defaulting on loans so maybe maybe there's a better buying opportunity that's going to materialize but uh yeah like that's the one
Starting point is 01:11:57 risk to the business and but i i do like it i mean they're growing active customers they seem to have good underwriting models and it's one to watch i've never owned it but i could definitely own in the future and later this quarter as a free advertisement for my our own festive research i guess i'm the one writing it but on emerging notes the link is in the show notes i will be doing a full research report on new holdings ryan anything else before we get out of here Nope, that's going to do it. We went a little long for this episode. Hope everyone enjoyed it. Thank you to the, I believe it was anonymous subscriber in the chat for recommending this prompt. This was really fun. before we get out of here one more shout out to portfolio tracking tool port sito check out port sito.com p-o-r-t-s-e-i-d-o.com and then if you want a research terminal fiscal.ai
Starting point is 01:12:49 slash chit chat gets you two weeks free automatically so you can check it out and 15 off any paid plans and interactive brokers as well for being the best brokerage platform we want to remind listeners that brett and i are not financial advisors anything we say or discuss here on chit chat stocks is not formal advice or recommendation we may buy sell or hold any of the securities discussed in this podcast thank you everyone for tuning in and we'll see you next time I finally had a light bulb moment about a stock we've all heard about growing at 18% a year and a 15 PE. I shared this insight in a special deep dive report to subscribers of my research service value spotlight. The report is called a generational moment, reigniting human
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