Chit Chat Stocks - Skillz (FEAC) | Deep Dive

Episode Date: November 5, 2020

Flying Eagle Acquisition Corporation is a SPAC, or a special purpose acquisition company, that will be merging with Skillz, the gaming platform. The Skillz platform allows players to compete for real cash prizes. Ryan will cover the company information (1:08), Brett will explain the industry (5:04) and Ian will dive into the management (7:10). Enjoy the episode! Subscribe to 7 Investing with the code "CCM": https://7investing.com/subscribe/ Follow Ian and check out his work on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IanGrayLive Follow Chit Chat Money on Twitter: https://twitter.com/chitchatmoney Subscribe to Chit Chat Money on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG5Ni-SI-jyrEsoNUhqftNQ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/chit-chat-money/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Chit Chat Money. On this show, host Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer interview industry experts and riff on the world of investment. As a quick reminder, Chit Chat Money is a CCM Media Group podcast. Ryan and Brett are not financial advisors. Anything discussed on Chit Chat Money by Ryan or Brett or any other podcast guest is not formal advice or a recommendation. Now, please enjoy this episode. All right, everyone. Welcome in. This is the Thursday Deep Dive episode, and we are recording on Election Day. So did you guys all put in your hedging trades? I liquidated entirely. You can never know what's going to happen, so it's better to be in cash.

But no, Ian, I guess we're joking, but we're all like, you know, you never want to trade on an election. Historically. Yeah, not the type of bet I like to make, for sure. Yeah, that's not how we do it here. But today we're talking about a SPAC and it is F-E-A-C. And they're merging with a company called Skills. So Ryan, you want to give the long intro since this is kind of a weird merger going through here. Right. So the company is Flying Eagle Acquisition Corp. It's a blank check company whose purpose is to create a merger. So they are a SPAC. But I've heard the word SPAC a lot and I didn't totally know how it works. So I did a little

digging. And for anyone that doesn't know, I'm going to basically give you the top level or sorry, not top level, the basics of how a SPAC works. SPACs are generally formed by investors or sponsors. So in this case, it's Eagle Equity Partners with the intention of acquiring a private company. They typically have a company in mind, but don't disclose who it is because if they do disclose who it is when they go public, it's a whole bunch of different disclosures they have to put in their documents. So they just keep it private. And then they offer shares to the public of essentially this empty company. If you go look at the balance sheet of any SPAC, it's just a bunch of cash. And with the money they raised from the IPO, the SPAC places that money in an

interest-bearing trust account. They can only take those funds out to make an acquisition or return the money to shareholders. So once they get the funds, they have two years since the offering uh to make an acquisition and then flying eagle has 691 million in cash investments in their trust account and the buzz about flying eagle is that they announced they'll be using their funds to acquire mobile gaming platform skills so they will change their ticker and list on one of the major exchanges once the merger goes through a little bit about the history well i'll talk skills and that'll talk to history uh skills is a mobile multiplayer gaming platform that allows users to compete globally for either real cash or skills virtual currency so from what i understand

correct me if i'm getting this wrong skills doesn't make games itself it's a platform that goes into existing games so they partner with like mobile solitaire or mobile billiards games and allow the players that are using it to compete for money that getting that right that is correct yeah i think one way i was thinking about it just to throw one more thing on there is like shopify is to e-commerce skills is to mobile games okay maybe maybe more like a stripe wouldn't it be yeah or a merger it's kind of it's kind of something in between there it's giving the it's becoming a um a platform or not a platform but what's the word for it a uh marketplace a marketplace kind of to it's giving them the software capabilities to monetize their games

okay yeah and skills was founded in boston in 2012 by andrew paradise and casey chafkin however they moved their headquarters to san francisco shortly after in 2013 i assume that was for the developers yeah you know boston's like the second biggest tech hub but it doesn't really matter anyway uh in 2013 they launched the first ever cash prize competition for mobile video games the hardest part about launching according to andrew paradise the ceo was understanding the laws around it so the focus for skills was that this was uh skill-based and not chance-based because cash competitions for skill-based games are legal in 46 states and then 10 of those states have basically their own caveats to that but they are not all obviously not all chance-based

gambling is legal so the the difference between a skill-based game and a chance-based game is that in a skill-based game the skilled player would beat an unskilled player 75 of the time i don't know how they prove that i don't know if they just like match up really good players against terrible players and like all right go for it but that's basically how it works interesting note skills requires their developers to play mobile video games at work i believe you have to get like 35 games in per week that's good i guess a little strange in touch with the uh consumer right yeah all right yeah you got to use it yeah exactly you want to hit on the industry yeah so i'll talk about the industry a little bit of their competition they're part of the gaming industry

which we all know is giant and they have companies you know like microsoft sony epic activision nintendo etc etc there's a few dozen of them um however skills is operating in a smaller niche you know the cash prize competitions for mobile games and these companies do not really directly compete with them. I wouldn't say they have any direct competitors that are public. And there's a few that are private that I think have about in between one and $40 million raised. So skills is the leader by far, at least by dollars raised and likely with revenue. There's estimated about $1.6 billion flowing through its competitions of 2020. And it's really building out its own market opportunity. Yeah, there's been iGaming before. Yeah, there's been sports betting

and things like that before uh but this is kind of different it's like a slightly adjacent to that um if we look at any adjacent competitors roblox might be similar that's something they could probably step into because they're a different world they're kind of like providing a platform for gamers to build things that's something they could probably add to the roblox platform very easily unity could probably do something as well since the engines um that they work with and the monetizable abilities with ads is very similar. It's something they could do as well with their user base and their developers. Unicorn spelled with a K and no O, classic Silicon Valley name. They have $40 million in funding with a similar idea and they're the

biggest competitor, although not nearly as big a skill. So really, it's not a monopoly because they're still building out an entire market, but there's no big competitors at all. Apparently, Sony and Amazon have tried to compete with them in the past. So they quit. I think that's a good indicator. And then the industry as a whole, mobile gaming is giant. I think it's supposed to grow to over $100 billion in 2025. And it is growing currently at a 20% CAGR, compound annual growth rate. So really good tailwinds for them. Ian, what do you have? Yeah, so we'll dive into the management and ownership. So the CEO of the SPAC is Harry Sloan. The founding investor and chairman is Jeff Sagansky.

That team was also the founder and initial shareholder of Diamond Eagle Acquisition, which took DraftKings public earlier this year. So they have some experience doing these SPACs and having successful mergers and seeing it through to fruition. The management team of Skills is going to take over running the public company once the merger goes through. And so the CEO of Skills is Andrew Paradise. He, along with the chief revenue officer and other co-founder Casey Chavkin, will continue to lead the company. One thing that a quote that I found from Andrew Paradise that I thought was really interesting is he says, Skills provides a platform to turn any mobile game on iOS and Android into one you can play with friends or strangers for cash, prizes or points. And it enables esports tournaments for games that integrate its platform. and so he really just sees it as a massive right like he says any mobile game he thinks that this

really provides capabilities for anybody i was just listening to a call they had um there's a really good investor call um from when the merger was first announced and it's about 25 minutes so if you have a chance i'd really recommend going and listening to it because it tells you a lot about the company um but one of the things he said is they found even a seven-year-old app developer they've done hand-drawn drawings and the seven-year-old app developer was using skills and so they think it really is easy to use for lots of different people and that's important to them interesting uh some things to note about the mechanics of it current skills stockholders so that'll be like the founders employees investors and skills and the SPAC have agreed to a 24-month

lockup period following the acquisition. That's long. Yeah, it is long. I was trying to do a little bit of research and see if that's typical for SPACs. But from what I can tell, that is a long lockup period. The public following this, like public shareholders, so people who own the FEAC right now, will own about 25% of the total company following acquisition. Like the skills shareholders, the, um, the sponsor of the SPAC and private investments and public company, um, investors are going to own the other 75%. So it's, um, about 25% public ownership and 75%, uh, institutional and insider. All right. Well, I'll get to the valuation then, uh, not much because they're unprofitable and they, I mean, the S4 that they send out doesn't, um, have

everything, uh, that you'd want to look at, but I got some good numbers. You're looking at about a $4 billion valuation right now for holders of FEAC currently. That's based on the $11.32 share price that FEAC is trading at. Apparently, this is 7.1 times projected 2022 revenues, although I kind of roll my eyes at that because like, come on, why are we talking about two years revenue? Let's talk about what you're doing now, but whatever. That's good. Using the last six months as a proxy feac is trading at about 19.5 uh time sales and that's the trailing number so a little high but revenue is growing at about 100 so it's not crazy if they can keep that up their margin adjusted evd sales which is um enterprise value and i guess in this case it's

market cap um divided by uh or sorry it's price to sales divided by sales growth and gross margin that's only 23, which is quite low for all the companies that we typically do. Although their gross margin is suspectingly high. It's like 94%. And I doubt that a company actually has cost of revenues at about 6% of sales, but if they do, that'd be pretty nice, right? Yeah. That'll cater right into my earnings, but all these are basically the 2019 numbers. And let me just say, this was incredibly hard to find. They did not make this easy at all, which may present some sort of inefficiencies. Like if investors struggle to get access to the numbers,

maybe that'll be good. And the S4 is like 200 plus pages. It's a pain. Yeah, so if you go to the SEC's website, find FEAC, go to their S4 updated amended merger paper and go to page 150, you will find their numbers where they had 120 million in revenue in 2019, growing at 136% year over year.

They had an operating loss of 25 million, net loss of roughly 24 million, and the year prior, they had 28 million in net losses. They're spending the bulk of basically all their operating expenses, 77% of all costs and expenses was spent on sales and marketing. So they're really aggressively trying to get this SDK essentially in the hands of developers. if i calculated it right it looks like they have 95 gross margins i would like to see a 10k of some sort describing what goes into cost of revenue maybe get that audited you know see what happens with that when that goes through but it it i mean if you think about the nature of the business yeah it's probably really high margin and they expected at scale that they could have around 30 percent ebitda margins um i think they mentioned that somewhere i can't really remember aware, but in the most recent quarter, they had 2.6 million monthly active users and 86% increase year over year. In 2020, they expected to power more than 2 billion tournaments.

Their volume for the first six months of 2020 was $719 million, up 83% from the year prior. All really high growth numbers. Yeah. Yeah. And profitability, I mean, it looked like they're as most companies do that are naturally high margin, they are pouring a ton of money into scaling up fast. Yeah. And Ian, if you have any thoughts on that, go ahead, but then you can just roll right into the balance sheet and liquidity. Yeah. Well, like both you and Ryan said, not a whole lot of detailed numbers in some of these documents, but it looks like after the deal closes, they're expecting to have about $250 million in cash. They say that's going to be used for working capital and increased marketing spend. So they seem to have plenty of

room to use that money for organic growth. And it looks like from kind of their last balance sheet and how it's going to be amended after this merger, it looks like it's going to be about $24 million in liabilities. So nothing to worry about there. Yeah. Pretty, pretty low, easy task for you there. And then before we move to the second half, we probably want to talk about our sponsor, right? 7investing. Yeah. We always want to just remind everyone that if you use our code CCM at checkout with seven investing. They give seven stock picks every month for the long term. Same type of style that we run. You can get $10 off your first month. So that would be only $7 to try out your first month. And then you can see if you want to continue it from there.

And we're getting a lot of, a lot of people are using the CCM code. So apparently maybe it's a good deal. A lot of people are really liking it and it seems like a no brainer. I mean, you're getting the opportunity to buy the $17 a month subscription that is worth it, in my opinion, at seven bucks a month. So yeah, that's, that's my sales pitch for you. Hope, hope you guys go sign up with CCM. Yep. And we'll hit the ad break and get to the second half. Cox panoramic wifi includes advanced security to help protect all your connected devices. You'll get real time alerts. Oh, like this one.

So you don't have to worry about malware or when your kid downloads a song from a shady link and now all your computer can play is red color red color where are you all blocked thanks to advanced security included with cox panoramic wi-fi advanced security must be enabled in the panoramic wi-fi app restrictions apply all right welcome back uh first up is competitive advantages ian do you want to go first sure i'll go first this is something that management talks about a little bit and it's the competitive nature of its content and so it really scratches that itch for a lot of people of being able to do something and try and win a game and just that competition that people like and why I think it's

a competitive advantage is because they see a lot of their competitors not as people who are directly competitive with them in this industry but actually people like Netflix, Twitter, Snapchat at those types of companies that are taking time of day away from you to do something else and they find that their own metrics because of this competitive nature of gaming that people actually spend more time gaming on these mobile games and using apps that use skills rather than on Netflix or on Facebook or on Twitter or on Instagram and that's something that Twitter, Instagram, Facebook they just can't compete with in the same way because it's not a competitive platform and skills just has a little bit of an inherent um competitive advantage of competition right right

and i think an n equals one stat here uh i was like well i kind of want to download this thing check it out you know play a few games maybe win a little bit of money it's yeah there's something much more addictive about the competitive nature compared to like a netflix yeah the concern on that end is you don't want it to be those type of deals where a kid is burning um an entire parent's credit card five thousand dollars worth or something so they probably got to put limits on that but that's a good problem to have and it's pretty easy to solve all right Ryan what do you have for you yeah for me it's regulatory barriers to entry so like like I said earlier the CEO that was like their main focus early on was basically making sure that they're all up to date with all

the laws all the legal requirements around it because it's really confusing I mean determining what's skill-based what isn't how many states have different caveats getting out there you have Apparently, they made themselves like a 100-page Bible on all the legal requirements internally inside the company. And then they also had to hire legal teams outside counsel. They went to someone in Boston who basically knew all about this part, and they outsourced that. So you need a lot of capital to start or a really good understanding of the legal grounds in each state, which is not easy to do. Yeah, and until we get full federal – well, it's kind of a weird thing because with iGaming and sports betting and just gambling in general, it's just tough because while the federal Supreme Court case got overruled, every state has to make up their own legislation, and that's just tough. You have to do 50 things plus any territories.

Yeah, it's – I mean, it's a barrier to entry because it's either capital-intensive or time-intensive to have all that stuff down. Yeah, it's definitely, definitely is. All right. I'll hit mine. It's very simple. They have a four month user acquisition payback period. This is what they claim, but the numbers make sense given that they have those low cost of revenue, then they've been able to grow revenue so quickly while only having, I think, 2.5 million users or 2.6 million users. So this allows them to fund their growth without having to take on a lot of debt or diluting shareholders with stock offerings. because if the cohorts from 2016, 2017, 2018 are already profitable for them,

and if it's even like four months ago, that all they have to do to burn is the four months prior from the current time. And if they can just keep that up, they're never going to have to raise any outside capital, which concerns me that they're going public with a SPAC. Maybe it's an easy way to get a little bit of funding and be in the public markets,

but why not do a direct listing? It seems like their balance sheet was fine. um they're pretty close to being break even i don't know what there was an interview with the ceo of skills on cnbc explaining why he went the spac route and he was basically just he said it was a quick it was the quickest way to do it and it it really sounds like he doesn't care to get in that we like in the weeds of the finances behind going public and he wanted someone essentially to take care of it which is what a spac does if you're small and your focus is developing yeah let someone else basically take care of it they'll take their fees and whatnot

but he seemed like it was the easiest route to go public right and ian did you read anything about that or same as ryan yeah same stuff that ryan was finding there okay uh next up is future growth opportunities and i'll let you go first again sounds good um one thing that i'm interested in is virtual and augmented reality and as those types of apps become more prevalent if skills can really capture a market of monetizing those apps and so you know i'm i'm kind of skeptical of investing in those types of technologies just because there's not a lot of there there right there's nothing that's too exciting um that people use every day in terms of augmented reality and virtual reality in my opinion but skills doesn't actually have to develop any of that type of stuff

they just get to benefit from it if it actually occurs and so um if there's really you know if another pokemon go comes along that has really great augmented reality people love it and becomes a big game skills could potentially um help monetize an app like that and benefit from that growth right and it's the thing it's kind of like unity where they don't need to come out with hit games they just need to power the games and then whatever ones are successful um that's where the revenue will go right yeah and like you were mentioning earlier with the 20 kegger for mobile gaming they're really they're right in an industry that's just growing faster and faster and and seemingly just going to become i think it's now one of like the biggest um gaming market in the

world actually mobile gaming so yes yes i believe yeah that's correct what do you have i have the social features so they highlight this in the s4 and they seem to be investing investing excuse me a lot of time on this so they want to keep people chatting on the platform probably like discord kind of you know they want people on there you know talking trash or whatever or just making friends with people and that's probably why they have so many um minutes played per day i think each user spends about 60 minutes per day uh or at least that was their 2019 users so they keep people on the platform maybe they're under monetizing people right now but in the future um the time spent on there that's got to be valuable in some form or another yeah i'll dig

to mind then advertising's my future growth opportunity in their s4 skill stated that only 10 of their monthly active users entered into paid contests in 2019 they said they plan to monetize the remaining 90 through non-intrusive low friction advertisements that makes sense i mean not everyone's gonna pay but you can still sort of scrape value off those users yeah the only downside so yeah this could help bring up um each you know make each user more monetizable but the clickbait ads i'd hope they're not as bad as a lot of the mobile games because i find if i'm on a mobile game and the clickbait ads pop up my user experience goes down so that's a give and take hey it says non-intrusive non-intrusive hopefully it's not as bad right but uh i don't

know i don't know all right highlights and low lights who wants to go first um ian go ahead sure i'll go i'll go for it again um so i think the highlights is the mindshare like we've been talking about and you you know you just mentioned they have over 60 minutes a day on the app for the average user which is incredible to actually get that much time um the thing i really like about it is they talk about how we're a democratizing factor of the mobile gaming industry and really letting like even like they mentioned on their call it's kind of a cherry-picked story but i think it's indicative of the brand is that even a seven-year-old developer can monetize his app and so it's a pretty that's a pretty cool thing and I think incredible growth growing industry

a SPAC team that's done it before and actually had a successful merger I think there are some questions about all you know there's so many SPACs being made right now and I think people are a little bit worried like are all these going to be successful are they all going to go through are they going to merge with good companies are investors going to be left holding the bag this is a team that's done it before they've already announced an acquisition it looks like all that's going to be good and um and i'd say one low light for me is just the uncertainty we don't have a lot of insight into you know whether that gross margin number is good or exactly what their balance sheet's going to look like and so you know i think because it's a private company

we just don't have as much of that information and we don't have a whole s1 that has a lot of detailed information. Yeah. It's not as bad as the EV SPACs. When I say EVs, I mean electric vehicles. A lot of those are very frothy and they're not guaranteed to be frauds, but it seems, especially with nickel and then there's other ones, some apparently people are still investing in. Those seem very risky, but there could be an opportunity where a lot of investors, the majority maybe of investors that invest like us are throwing the baby out with the bathwater and something like FEAC or Skills could have that opportunity. All right, Ryan, what do you got?

Yeah, highlights for me, I think people might be misunderstanding the business. I think a lot of people see it as like kids playing mobile games, spending a little money here and there. But this is something where like a 20-year-old or a 25-year-old who's really good at solitaire can make an extra 20 grand a year. And that's probably where you're getting the 62 minutes a day is people that spend an extra hour a day and make 15 to 20 grand a year

betting on games they're really good at. And if you look at their top games, it's really like solitaire, billiards, dominoes, games I don't really play, but they're more catered to an older audience. And then also it's really easy to implement apparently their software development kit into the games for developers. Like Ian said, they're really giving small time developers an easy way to monetize what they're already doing. Low lights for me though, I don't like buying IPOs to begin with because I like usually seeing a few months under the belt as a public company. Get it, yeah. Get a 10K out there. That's all we ask. It makes it a little tougher as well when it's a SPAC because I don't necessarily understand

the, and there's probably answers to these questions, but it wasn't super apparent to me. Who retains most of the equity? Who has the voting power in the business? What's the skills executive team's incentives. Who's winning here? And it's not always clear when there's a SPAC because there's two parties that are essentially in charge. And I might just not know the answer to that. And there might be an answer out there, but there's a lot of unanswered questions for me. So like Ian said, a little bit of uncertainty. Yeah. We probably want to see the proxy statement as well. Ian, would you agree? I mean, what's your thoughts on SPACs? Do you want to wait until we get those audited documents out there or is that? Yeah, I think it's a, it's a trade-off for

investors that, you know, if, if everything else is looking good to you and you're really excited about it, you know, maybe you do look at it and you say, there's a little bit of an inefficiency here because all that information isn't public and I'm going to trust management. Right. But it's definitely, you have to understand that if you're going to go ahead and invest now, it is riskier. You're paying, you're getting a little bit of a discount because not all the information is out there at like it will be in after a month or two of, or a quarter or two of some financial documents. Right. All right. I'll finish up with mine. I had those hours played again. I think we all agreed that was a great number. I like the monetization strategy. I think

it's healthier, although they are doing some advertisements. It's healthier and long-term could probably grow revenue in a sustainable fashion compared to just those clickbait ads on a lot of those easy mobile games. And I think that their growth on the revenue side, at least, has been fantastic. And it's one of those companies where you wouldn't be surprised if they'd go at high double digits for the next five years they have that opportunity in front of them and that's just a good thing to know when you're investing in a company that is priced like they are and my low lights though their 14% take rate is high and that was just something I took from their gross market volume or merchandise excuse me going through and then dividing that by their

revenue that is unaudited but it's not like I don't know it seems a little bit high like someone can come in maybe roblox unity can compete strongly with them here i don't know if their moat is that strong uh but they also i don't know no one's going to be coming in startup and competing with them really easily um i had the question about the direct listing but i guess ryan answered that and then another low light though is 79 of the revenue comes from three games does that concern you guys at all did it say which three it was the solitaire one the ones you named earlier um maybe i i don't think so i think they have more of like a twitch like business maybe maybe i'm saying that wrong but there's it's really about people that think they

can make money sustainably it is a skill-based competition not chance so it's people that are really good at the games monetizing that and i don't have any problem with them if like most of their players are on solitaire most of their players are on dominoes i'd rather have a few maybe four or five games that are really uh how should i say money drivers um for the business than a bunch spread out because they sort of have like the dynamite of their business in those i don't know it seems a little bit like what if the game becomes a lot less popular that's just my big concern that can happen you know games aren't around forever there's only a few that make it there you have any thoughts yeah i think some of these games that you're talking about though are

kind of timeless games dominoes solitaire um and to me the more important thing would be where this number is going directionally not how big it is right now i think if it if it's still at 79 two years from now that would tell me that they're not that they haven't executed a good growth strategy because they haven't been able to get other popular games out there to really monetize but um just having a 79 i get i get the point um but it's not a huge red flag to me okay Yeah, that makes sense. All right. To wrap things up, are we more or less interested in skills after talking about it today? Ryan, go ahead. Yeah, sure. I'll go first. More interested. I really like the business. I really wrote them off

early on. People asked us to do this show. They were like, do a SPAC, do a SPAC. And it's harder to get. It's a lot more work on our end to get information, but I think it was worth it. um it's a really interesting business and it is really helping developers it's um like just a helpful platform in general but there is a lot of gray area for me on the financial side like not necessarily financial but the funding side I don't there's just a lot I have to get through on a SPAC in general as opposed to just a typical public company yeah agreed all right Ian yeah I'm more interested too. I'd never heard of the SPAC before we started talking about it and I hadn't heard of the company before. So it was really interesting to me to dive in and learn a

little bit about skills particularly. And for me, I love these companies that help other people make money and really help entrepreneurs make their lives better. And so things like Shopify, Square, Etsy, Fiverr, like we talked about a couple of weeks ago. I think this falls in line with that where it really helps entrepreneurs make their lives better. Yeah, and entrepreneurs in two senses because there's the software developers can more easily monetize their platform. And then the players that use this as a money driver

can make money that way as well. Yeah, they're doubly excited. Yeah, I am more interested. I think it falls into the basket. I'd even make a niche gaming one of the basket that you were talking about, Ian, of Unity, Roblox. and um and i know roblox isn't public and then epic games isn't public yet but they're probably going to be soon um and then you know skills they help developers and they kind of they're able to

not be reliant on these hit games that the development um companies are the studios are and that's a little bit more risky but if they can have the platform where all the developers want to be and all the users want to be that can i mean it seems nice i know all these companies are probably going to be priced to a premium and that's something you got to consider here but at least on a company's sake, I'm definitely more interested. All right. We're good to go? Yeah. All right. That's going to do it for this episode. Thank you all for listening. Use our promo code CCM at checkout for 7investing to get $10 off your first month.

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