Chit Chat Stocks - We Force Ranked Our Personal Portfolios (CPNG, RELY, PM, OMAB, PAC + More!)

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Starting point is 00:01:26 not formal advice or recommendation. Now please enjoy this episode. Welcome into another episode of the Chit Chat Stocks podcast. My name is Brett Schaefer, and as always, joined by Ryan Henderson. As you can see, for the few people that watch in the background, I have my blaring red light going, although it's hopefully not a huge distraction because we could be, as of the time of this recording on Monday, March 10th, hitting a little bit of market turmoil. We could see CNBC bring back that headline soon.

Starting point is 00:02:09 Looks like the indices are down about 10% from all time highs. And we've seen some high growth stocks, some AI favorites, all that good stuff down somewheres of 50% year to date. And you know us, anyone that's listened to us a long time knows that we try to embrace the market downturns and have a portfolio position to take advantage of sell-offs when they occur. So this is why we have a perfect episode for everyone today. it is our annual forced rankings exercise where we determine which stocks within our existing

Starting point is 00:02:47 portfolio that we like the best and the least and essentially all we're doing we did them a little bit differently but i think it'll make sense for the audience we just ranked what you know from the top of our head from the prices and valuations we saw as of making the rankings which stocks we would like the most if we're starting a portfolio today to buy first which stocks we like the least or honestly are considering selling. This can really help us determine, I think help the listeners if you do this exercise at least once on an annual basis, it can help you determine if you should, you know, add to a position or get rid of one. For example, if you have something that's very high ranked, one of the top two or three stocks within your rankings, and it is only

Starting point is 00:03:29 a small position in the portfolio, well, maybe it's time to reposition and make that a larger position. Now, Ryan, I'm talking a lot here. We're going to introduce and have you go first, but any other thoughts before we get into your rankings? Yeah. Just to define the ranking system a little more clearly here, Brett mentioned it. We're going through our entire portfolios and ranking the companies we currently own that we think are the best opportunities today. That is not just companies that have the most pure upside, but it's a blend of potential returns along with the likelihood of those returns. So for example, there might be a software stock that I think could be 10 times

Starting point is 00:04:13 larger in five years, but it might not have the widest moat. Competition could eat away at that, that kind of thing. That might have much higher upside, but Amazon might have a higher likelihood or probably in this case will most likely have a higher likelihood of better returns. So you kind of have to blend those in terms of ranking. I went from worst to best. I believe Brett did the same. I have a lot more companies than Brett because I am a startup position guy and I'm okay with that. Uh, so a number of these are kind of small positions don't really matter a whole lot and I'll go briefly through them. Uh, but then I'll try to really concentrate on sort of my top five ideas and maybe the bottom three as well. Uh, just in terms of what I'm really cutting, what I might be adding to, I guess I'll kick things off with number 18 here. I think I already

Starting point is 00:05:07 said that, but I have 18 positions. The first one is going to be SEMrush. We did an episode on SEMrush this year, I believe. It was two software stocks I'm buying now and SEMrush was one of the companies. And for anyone that doesn't know, SEMrush sells domain visibility software. So if you're a content person like me and you want to see what type of content is doing well by content person like me, I just mean like you're writing content for a company or something like that, content marketing, even just general marketing, you want to see what pages rank well, what pages for your competitors rank well, what kind of content you should be writing. You can find all that through SEMrush. They have really good tracking capabilities.

Starting point is 00:05:51 I like the business generally. I think the core business is pretty good. However, I underestimate how competitive it is. And it's been sort of lackluster business progress. I mean, revenue continues to grow, which is nice, but this quarter they switched CEOs. So the founder and CEO that was there, Oleg was his name. He's moving back into a CTO role and they brought in someone with more business to business SaaS experience because they're trying to move up market more towards those enterprise customers. Previously, they've gotten a lot of like self-serve content marketing people within a company that just kind of peripherally monitor their rankings. There hasn't been really this like sales motion, this really business to

Starting point is 00:06:36 business sales motion. So they're trying to put more emphasis on that. We'll see. I think a lot of companies talk about trying to move up market and it's probably harder than people think. So it's a 2% position for me. So I'll probably just wait around to see how the enterprise shift develops and whether or not they can really turn the corner to profitability. They've grown revenue really quickly over the last four or five years. But operating incomes, they're basically break even on an operating margin basis. So I'd like to see them improve profitability and get some real progress out of this B2B SaaS motion. Yeah, it makes sense. This is a new position for you, somewhat new position for you. And it's a bit of a starter position. So we're kind of at

Starting point is 00:07:20 the point where it's either going to move up your rankings and you're going to make it a larger position or you're going to get rid of it. And it's a starter position for a reason. So you're recycle it rather quickly. All right, Ryan, we have the next one on your list here. An old favorite of mine that has become one of my least favorites, Autodesk. Yeah. Autodesk is probably the only holding I have where I actually don't like the management team whatsoever. So I bought this a while back and it was partly as like, I think I had just gotten frustrated with owning a bunch of like underperforming, but quote unquote, undervalued companies. And I'm like, you know what? I'm just going to buy something that has a really solid business, even if I hate

Starting point is 00:08:02 management, even if it seems like a trade's at a premium. And so I did. And so far it's worked out, but I'm chronically frustrated with management and they continue to underperform what they could do. Not to mention there's been sort of some accounting scandals as well. And they measure themselves by metrics that I just don't think matter. I haven't really done anything with the position since I bought it. Just to kind of rehash here, they've got a great business, pretty solid moat since their software has such high switching costs. But it trades at an EV to EBIT of 40 times. I don't trust the management.

Starting point is 00:08:36 So I think I'm probably just going to end up leaving this at a 2% to 3% position. What do you think of Autodesk? I know you follow this closely as well. I think the story hasn't changed in the last few years. The management doesn't seem to be focused, despite some activist investors, despite some complaints, and despite some of the accounting stuff that led the CFO, I believe, to get fired. The business is great, but they haven't really done much with it from a bottom line perspective. My question to you is, Ryan, you've held this for a few years now. What's keeping you from selling? Not letting – I think if there was a – I've gotten to the point where I'm comfortable owning the businesses where I think at some point a better manager could improve it and the moat is wide enough that it can endure rough management. I think Autodesk is in that group. If someone more, I guess, shareholder-friendly decided to run this, I think you could see really, really good returns.

Starting point is 00:09:44 They've already had pretty solid returns despite some management incompetencies. But I don't want to sell a wonderful business purely on frustration with the current management team when that could change. that is fair yeah it's been a bit of no man's land for you what if the same management team is here this time next year would you consider selling and the stock has gone nowhere because eventually my thinking is well you have 10 better ideas up top of this list why not put them in there i i've been trying more and more to kind of be in that never sell camp i have a hard rule with myself that says you have to hold something for three years or at a minimum. So, and I think this is kind of getting to that three-year threshold. The business has grown a bit since

Starting point is 00:10:41 I first bought, but really not a lot. So yes, I could potentially sell it, especially if I needed the cash, but I'm also comfortable letting this shrink as a position just on its own, like add to other things over time. If five years down the road, I feel like nothing's changed, maybe I'll sell it, but I don't want to act too quickly when I do think there's a really good business under the hood here. Okay. And this part of the list, again, we're going from least favorite to most favorite at the moment for Ryan here. This is the part of the list where it's kind of an, I definitely wouldn't buy here, but I'm not selling kind of a no man's land. This next one is also in this as well. It's one we wanted to talk about a little bit more

Starting point is 00:11:23 extensively, and that is Ally Financial. Tell us what you're thinking about this position at, at the moment. Yeah. Ally Financial has really slid down my rankings quite a ways over the last couple of years, particularly for one reason. Their position as the leading online-only bank is not what it once was, in my opinion. I think competition from neobanks has really ate away at their deposits business. And we've seen this already. Growth of new customers has slowed uh at least last quarter there's been some growth of new customers still and that's it's there's been growth pretty much every single quarter but not at the rate that we're seeing some other banks grow customers at um and and the also the deposits per customer is dropping now

Starting point is 00:12:17 that might just be an economic thing maybe people are don't have as much in their savings as they used to. But it could also be that people are chasing the highest yield. They're chasing the highest savings yield or the highest savings rate. And there's other places where you can get a much higher savings rate than Ally. Companies like SoFi, Chime, even Wise have been growing customers really quickly. So I worry about that side of the business. When I first bought this, I thought, wow, they've got a real nice competitive advantage because they're the low cost provider compared to the typical brick and mortar or branch banks. I don't think that competitive advantage is as big as it used to be, but the earnings have also deteriorated lately due to higher rates coupled

Starting point is 00:13:05 with some lending issues as well. So higher net charge off. So it's kind of been a double whammy for them, which has led to net interest margin compression. However, I think earnings are set to inflect, which this part's pretty predictable with them. You can kind of get some visibility into this in advance. So I would guess, and I think estimates are around this as well, $5 to $6 in earnings per share is doable. Maybe not this year, but next year, or maybe not next year, but the year after. And the stock trades at $34. So it's around six times future earnings. And I suspect they'll be able to turn on the buybacks again. So don't love this as much as i used to and if i were forced to trim something this would probably be up there but i'll continue

Starting point is 00:13:51 to hold for now because i don't want to sell something right before a potential major earnings inflection yeah okay this one makes sense it's one that's been on my watch list as well and we're looking at share price today uh you mentioned i don't know if you talked about it in your notes here 34 it's down below 33 now today after this drawdown could be getting more cheap and they do have quite an attractive buyback program when they turn it on, which could happen sometime this year or next. All right. Let's fly through the middle here. Ryan, what do you have that's kind of in your middle of the pack, things you like? Maybe the valuation is getting a bit aggressive. Maybe the business performance hasn't been as great as you thought, but you still like the business and

Starting point is 00:14:37 their position. Yeah, I'd say most of these, except for maybe one, this sort of middle of the pack group are all kind of in the same boat, which is I don't really plan to add or sell unless there's some drastic change in price. So number 15 for me is Adobe. We just did a full podcast on this one. I think the software is sticky. They've got some pricing power. AI is not as big of a threat as the market seems to think. So the valuation looks pretty reasonable and they're spending all of their cashflow and then some on buybacks. It's not as cheap, not quite well maybe it is after today because everything's kind of down but it's not quite as quite as cheap as it was when i initially bought um but yeah it's reasonable and i think it can

Starting point is 00:15:21 grow earnings at a double digit rate for a long time i'm kind of forecasting basically low teens annual return if things go well so it's a predictable business simple i'm going to keep the position where it's currently at. Number 14 for me is O'Reilly. This is for anyone that doesn't know a specialty retailer for automotive aftermarket parts. I think anyone in the US will know what this business is, but they operate basically in a duopoly then. And there's lots of advantages in being the big player in this industry. It's similar to the home improvement industry with Home Depot and Lowe's. So between them and AutoZone, they've got some pricing power, they've got distribution advantages which they can offer to like local mechanic shops as well

Starting point is 00:16:08 but it's i just really don't spend a lot of time thinking about this position like it's kind of a coffee can type stock for me where the business model is very straightforward they have a ton of skus so people come to them because they need stuff the number of cars on the road goes up every year. So the serviceable customers continues to grow. The capital allocation strategy is really simple. They just buy back tons of stock, but it doesn't trade that cheaply anymore. So I bought a small position a year ago. It's up about 20% since, which has been kind of a solid return. And if it were to get really cheap, I might revisit, but I do have some long-term concerns about electric vehicles kind of taking away some of their market over time

Starting point is 00:16:58 so don't love it don't hate it it's kind of in the middle no way no disruption yeah i mean that's the real long-term threat yeah i mean that's a joke sort of even with the rise of evs over the last five to ten years the number of ice vehicles on the road has continued to grow So I'd be surprised if it affected them in the next 10 years, but it is just kind of – it might impact the growth rate a bit. So I don't know. Like I said, I don't think about it a ton. It's a simple one. It trades at an okay price.

Starting point is 00:17:39 I liked it when I bought it. This would be trimmable if I really needed cash from an existing holding. okay and i want to get to your favorite stocks and talk about that a bit so maybe in this middle of the pack here i'm going to read off the next five and you tell me which ones you want to talk about nerdy 13 wise 12 11 paycom 10 harvard diversified 9 british american tobacco let's talk wise and harvard diversified the other ones there's not a whole lot of updates since we spoke about them last nerdy's kind of like this event thing and it's a tiny position so it's not really that important and i think you're best performer yeah the ceo has in the last year bought 20 percent

Starting point is 00:18:27 of the entire company in the open market yeah yeah which is i've never seen anything like that and it's like he single-handedly has pushed up the stock it appears so um that's nice but I don't love the business and it's doubled since, so I don't know if he'll keep buying shares in the open market. But I want to talk about Wise because this has been falling down my rankings. This is one that I really, really liked for, I'd say, the last two years. But as great as their digital infrastructure is that they've built, and for anyone that doesn't know, they have basically banking licenses in a ton of countries and they've configured a way to create really low cost digital remittances. They are the low cost provider for sending

Starting point is 00:19:13 money across borders. However, they just have not done a very good job executing on the user experience. It's kind of hard to explain, but once you sign up, you'll see what I mean. There's little frustrations. User search is a nightmare. Multiple payments is a pain, like it's which is a big issue for businesses um describing transactions is like pointlessly limited so like if i wanted to send money and i wanted to tell someone why i'm sending that money i have like seven characters to do it which is pretty tough like there's no reason to do that these are things that can be easily fixed um and there's been very little improvement on the user experience in my opinion and i haven't been able i mean wise okay in some sense they're kind of

Starting point is 00:20:07 just deferring transaction costs to the user so you've got a banking license if you set up a wise account you can send money from a wise account to wise account for basically zero dollars it's free but if you want to go from wise account to bank account there's going to be a transaction so if you want to take it out of wise and some end there's going to be a cost but if you keep the money on wise which you can't do because they've got a card that is effective and it's helpful and they've got a high yield cash account as well which they seem to be unable to deploy to all their markets um we use it though or sorry the credit card we don't use but we use that high yield cash account it's nice correct and the reason we can't it's not that we don't use the

Starting point is 00:20:53 card. It's, we can't get a card that they, for some reason are unable. Like I've been on a waiting list for a year. So it's just these little things where it feels like kind of a great business model could be perfect, could be the low cost provider in a massive industry, but there's just been execution issues. Like the CEO went on a hiatus kind of for a while and wasn't really involved with the company for like six months didn't really tell the shareholders about it um that was an issue anyway it slipped down my rankings i'm going to continue to own it because hopefully things can improve and i do think that digital infrastructure that they've built is going to keep them in the game but they are not my favorite player in that industry anymore

Starting point is 00:21:41 and the valuation is it's fair but it's not highly attractive i do agree they perhaps have under invested in product development and customer support and that's why their margins look so good right now but they might be at a point where they're still trying to get that scale and it would be much better for them to reinvest more into this stuff and then eventually you know those unit economics which are strong within this market will start to show up i'm trying to look at our timer here and i think we can probably skip harvard diversified ryan why don't we start rolling through the top eight here with amazon okay uh can i give a quick spiel on harvard diversified sure do you want to tell that any listener uh that works at the company to file

Starting point is 00:22:29 their sec with the sec yeah so this is really really frustrating this has probably been the biggest detriment to my personal returns is this company because i way oversized it and that's kind of a lesson in and of itself but this is it's a regional airline the business is nothing to write home about but it is extraordinarily cheap and this is actually a fantastic example in my opinion of how a business in the public markets can be valued well well below what it would be worth if it didn't have a publicly traded stock. This is an operational airline with $100 million in cash in the bank, no debt, and it trades at a market cap of $40 million. It's an operational airline, probably profitable. We don't know because they can't seem to get a filing out.

Starting point is 00:23:18 So obviously, and they own 60 planes. So if you owned that whole thing, like you had $100 million in the bank and 60 planes and someone offered you $40 million for it, you would obviously not sell it at that price however because they can't file they've been delisted and no one can buy shares unless they're on the expert market and i'm not there so you can only sell if you own shares and you don't have a broker basically and you can't buy so that makes for a pretty tough dynamic for the stock to go up in price so yeah i don't know just terribly frustrating but thought it was worth mentioning if all i can do is sell that's all the what i'm restricted to i'm not going to i'm just going to wait and hope something good happens hope they finally get their accounting issues

Starting point is 00:24:04 resolved and can file and and uh be compliant and probably the stock will be worth a lot more but yes let's skip to i'd say the top maybe seven companies number eight for anyone that doesn't it's amazon i think it has a super wide yeah but we can skip that everyone knows amazon yeah that it's it's kind of i'd say sort of in no man's land so it's not you're probably not going to go wrong owning it from here, but I don't have any unique thoughts on it at the moment. So number seven for me is going to be Nelnet. We just did an entire episode on this. There are some other businesses in my portfolio that I like better right now, which is why it ranks number seven, but I'd have no problem adding shares here.

Starting point is 00:24:49 This is one that I'll probably own forever, most likely. I think it's operating businesses and investments are worth double the current market cap maybe that valuation gap will close a little bit over time but i'm actually really comfortable with them sort of chronically being undervalued i don't know if i ever want them to trade at an extreme multiple like it's going to force me to have a decision that i don't want to have to make so i mean right now i and you can get good returns without the valuation gap closing so i buy back stock seemingly every year maybe probably would be hard for me to pull that back up but you can see uh this helps with their drawdowns because they seem to have a threshold of when they start buying back stock and given that it's a

Starting point is 00:25:39 thinly traded security even though the market cap's fairly sizable about 4.2 billion dollars as of this recording the drawdowns haven't been really scary at all in the last five years at least since you know the covid blow up and that's not it's not a bad place to be when they know that when their shares get to a decently cheap level which is not very far away from here they are going to essentially support the stock and sell starts moving higher again yeah it's one where management is just extremely aligned effective communicators it's really easy to own so i'm gonna yeah it's kind of in the never sell camp for me all right the top six these are probably the most exciting slash fun ones and uh full context i've added to three of these in recent days so well

Starting point is 00:26:34 exciting not as not as of this being published as of this recording yeah um so number six for me is alphabet i think it's pretty simple here uh it's almost boring but for some reason the market just doesn't like them i don't know if it's like this aversion to shareholder friendliness that the management sometimes seems to have um like they of course they could optimize the business and have like 50 or 60 operating margins and that'd be great for shareholders short term but i don't know if that's what's best for the business in the long run and right now they're trading i believe at 16 and a half 17 times ev to ebit trailing i think the risk of ai is really overblown i think they're one of the most inventive companies in the world and have a

Starting point is 00:27:28 lot of operating businesses that are starting to like even if you thought search was completely at risk they're starting to have some real like meaningful progress from google cloud that could start to make up for a good chunk even if search started to decline a bit things go wrong yeah google cloud could potentially replace them with the operating earnings um and you know the other part is people like what about the risk of being broken up i'd say there's the potential upside of them being broken up like to get these companies and parts that'd be great um because i think it'd be a lot worth a lot more than the overall pie. Yeah, I'm pulling up on our friends at FinChat here that it is about a mid to high teens forward earnings ratio, depending on what

Starting point is 00:28:14 you use. I'm using EV to EBIT here. And that can lead into a good time to talk about our friends at FinChat. I'll give Ryan a break from speaking. If you use our link, FinChat.io slash chitchat, you get 15% off any paid plan. And the link will be in the show notes there. Again, you can get all this. I was just doing it while Ryan was talking. You click on EV to EBIT. You get a nice forward valuation. You compare that to trailing. You compare that to free cashflow, given all the capital investments they're doing. And they just added this new one, which I think will help a lot of people who make their own metrics and who make their own Excel sheets for charting and their own data. You have the ability to make custom metrics and correct me if I'm wrong, Ryan, you can upload

Starting point is 00:28:57 your own data to the platform now to make your own charts out of that and track it. Or is that Is that coming? That's potentially down the pipe that there's some data liability issues. With all their existing data, you can make your own charts. And it just gets better and better every day. So use our link. If you're a professional investor or someone that's investing a sizable personal account, it's well worth it.

Starting point is 00:29:23 Use our link, finchat.io slash chitchat. All right, Ryan, we're moving into the top five. what's number five on your forced rankings list this is going to be grupo aeroportario del centro norte central north i've called i call it now for our bad uh spanish accents the central north airport yeah ticker omab that's usually what i refer to it as i'm starting to absorb brett your thesis around this being the decade of mexico all the signs point to improving consumer spending for mexican citizens over the next i'd say two decades uh and that means more flights to the country which means more passenger traffic for central north airports uh and the trump risk

Starting point is 00:30:14 is overblown it always is i don't think this is going to affect tourism to mexico and For anyone that's like, oh, the relationship has been tarnished because of Trump, it was worse in 2016. If you go back and think about the rhetoric that the Trump administration had during their first go of it around US and Mexico relations, it was so much worse. So, yes, I think the risk with Trump having some impact on OMAP is way overblown. This is a business that just gushes cash, trades at a very reasonable multiple, and pays back shareholders in dividends at a pretty healthy rate. So I just think there's a lot to like. I don't have the multiple right in front of me. Maybe you know it off the top of your head, Brett, but I believe it's – We'll get valuation on my forced ranking since it's in my list too. Okay. All right. Top four now. Number four is going to be Coupang. This would be higher, but the valuations come up a bit over the last year. It continues to deepen its competitive advantages. And I listened to the recent conference call. There was so much to like. It amazes me what they're able to offer to customers. And it just feels like they have a ton of different levers that they can pull for growth.

Starting point is 00:31:40 So the Coupang Play, Coupang Pay, Coupang Eats, these are all ancillary businesses that can really drive the value of that subscription, basically the Amazon Prime equivalent that they have. And then the retail business is also seeing improving margins beyond the other initiatives like fulfillment by Coupang and advertisements. So yeah, they are just the leading player in a really attractive market, which is South Korean e-commerce because of the population density. I really like them. I think they're going to have competitive advantages that continue to feed back into deepening their moat, and they continue to invest. So yeah, I like Coupang where they're at. Any thoughts there? Are you going to have them on your list as well?

Starting point is 00:32:32 They're on my list since I own them. So I'll have some further thoughts, maybe talk a little valuation. Okay. Number three for me is D.R. Horton. I know I bore everyone when I talk about home builders, but home builders have, I don't know if they were ever in favor, but they've certainly kind of fallen out of favor recently. And I think the thesis here is just really simple. They're able to produce homes at a lower cost than competitors.

Starting point is 00:32:56 That is reflected in their superior gross margins. I think they'll be selling far more homes each year in five to 10 years. And it trades at a forward EV to EBIT of nine, which is actually lower than their trailing EV to EBIT. So that's assuming a little bit of margin contraction. I think they're just really well positioned. They return, I believe, more than 100% of their free cash flow back to shareholders in the form of buybacks.

Starting point is 00:33:26 it's home building is not what it was in 2008 like people always reference the gfc and think like oh well what if that happens again a it probably won't and b even if it did i think they're going to be fine because 80 of their uh land is optioned and it's not owned and on the balance sheet so they're going to be able they would it would be terrible for them if a wait like event ever happened again, but it wouldn't break them. They wouldn't go bankrupt. Yep. And I'm pulling up a chart here for my friends at FinChat, seven and a half times EV to EBIT. The one thing I do get concerned about is rising levels of inventory across the country and months of supply growing. But it looks like, again, given this valuation,

Starting point is 00:34:12 given their balance sheet, if we hit any sort of hiccups within the next few years, a lot of that is priced in, and this management team knows how to deal through the housing cycle. All right, listeners, we've got a new sponsor here at Chit Chat Stocks, and their name is Blue Chippers Club. Blue Chippers Club was recently started by two friends of ours with the goal of building a tight-knit community of stock-focused investors. Inside this community, everyone gets to share and break down their portfolios, pitch stocks, receive feedback, and participate in weekly calls. We truly love this idea, and it's why we're promoting it here on the show. In fact, we are in this community ourselves and enjoy just how much value we get

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Starting point is 00:35:40 by public investing. Full disclosures in the podcast description. Yeah. All right. Top two. My number two here is going to be Philip Morris. This is probably the most bulletproof investment I own, even after, and I'm patting myself on the back here, a 60% jump since I bought, I think that's probably basically over the last year. I'm not totally sure on that timeframe. I think it still trades at a very reasonable price for a company that can easily grow earnings at a double-digit rate, maybe easily is exaggerated. But really, they have wonderful businesses in their new age products between Zinn and Icos, and their cigarettes portfolio is actually quite stable, much more stable than the major cigarette brands in the United States because they haven't had as much volume declines probably because of illicit vaping. um so it their volumes are relatively stable there's lots of pricing power there the only headwind really is foreign currency which hasn't been they've been doing well just in spite of that

Starting point is 00:36:56 so yeah i i am this is my largest holding and i'm super comfortable having it be my largest holding right now and if i were forced like it i wouldn't mind adding to it honestly if it wasn't my largest holding i'd be comfortable adding here even after jumping 60 yeah it's i mean valuation yeah it's about 20 times earning so it makes makes sense to me it isn't one thing you can be a little concerned about the potential market share gains of some of the nicotine pouch brands in the u.s but that's not a huge piece of the puzzle and that market itself is growing so quickly that they should be fine there. And there's some upside with entering some of these new reduced risk products in the United States as well and spanning them around the world.

Starting point is 00:37:47 All right, Ryan, what's your number one on the list? Yeah, I know I've gone long here. So my number one is Remitly. This is my favorite investment today by quite a ways. And it's the one, well, I guess one of the three that I've been adding to lately. Remitly is a digital remittance app for anyone that doesn't know. It's kind of embedded in the name there, but they are in the leading position in a really promising industry. I think they are also on the right side of the innovators dilemma versus Western Union. And you can actually see that in the volumes between Western Union and Remitley. It's basically two paths. If I were to give a mental visual for anyone listening, you've got Western Union's

Starting point is 00:38:32 North American volumes just slowly declining and Remitley's are kind of soaring here. um it's they're increasing market share there i think there's a true flywheel effect here where the more people that are on the app the more they kind of become your salesman if you will um so higher usage leads to lower cost incremental users and they trade a price to gross profit of 5.6 times and i i would use a better multiple if i could but they've been investing a lot in marketing and i think rightfully so because they're attracting a ton of users doing it and those users tend to stick around and continue to add volume and over time and and remit volume i guess over time i think they're at the beginning of a big operating leverage journey uh i just

Starting point is 00:39:25 don't there is so much momentum here i've heard the reference of this is like booking holdings at the beginning of the ota craze and if you actually look at the app downloads among all digital remittance apps remitly is kind of running away with it at this point relative to the western unions of the world and trying to think of the other ones x oom is that one or am i getting that wrong correct uh money gram yeah and others and banks yeah it it's just a really they are kind of the opposite. Well, maybe not the opposite of wise, but they have the opposite problem where it's not even a problem. So wise has that digital infrastructure that they've done so well building remotely doesn't necessarily have that, but they have built a lot of partnerships that takes

Starting point is 00:40:14 basically a decade to build, but they have done so well on the user experience and the user interface and just made it seamless for people to send money back home. And I just think huge market and they're kind of poised to be the winner would be my guess all right ryan let's move to mine my ranking is a little bit different i did it kind of the way we used to do when running the investment fund i have one through 25 slots but there aren't 25 companies so if i put a ticker at number one it is a stock i like the best and i would say you know something i'm gonna go all in on uh we're not all in but make it a huge position 25 is the worst and i'd consider obviously immediately selling. So five through 20, I guess, is say just varying ranges of stocks I like,

Starting point is 00:41:06 you know, would hold and maybe not buy. One through five is something I'd probably want to add to or considering adding to unless it's already a huge position. And then something that hits maybe 20 or higher is something I would trim or potentially get rid of, but I'm still holding. And the reason, again, we're doing this is to kind of showcase, okay, maybe I need to add to this position. Maybe I should sell this one. It is almost a gut instinct of what ones you just put down on the paper and then investigate why. And maybe the numbers don't back up your feelings. And we're just going to discuss going through that. All right. My first one, and again, we're going from least favorite to favorite, is going to be number 20, Harvard

Starting point is 00:41:43 Diversified. It's another one of my own. Ryan already talked about it. It's not listing. So I'm kind of given this limbo area of, well, if they did start trading and the stock went up a bit, I'd probably end up selling because the thesis hasn't worked out as much as it has, but the stock's stuck right now and we're at a price that is well below the net cash position. Now, the one that I want to talk about that's interesting, it's one I did a thesis pitch on right around this time last year, and that is Gogo. I have them at 18. This is what I wrote in my personal journal as to why I bought Gogo stock last year. Quote, it is the only company with a licensed exclusive spectrum,

Starting point is 00:42:21 giving it an advantage over any copycat in North America. Along with the high switching cost of equipment on private jets, this has allowed GoGo to maintain a dominant market share of private jet internet services in North America. Once 5G and GoGo Galileo go live, it will further widen its mode by increasing the customer value proposition and expanding the customer base with faster internet speeds.

Starting point is 00:42:45 its LEO competitors like Starlink are currently only workable in larger jets and do not have the air to ground capabilities in North America like GoGo. I still believe all of this is the case. They still are developing and kind of rolling out this 5G and Galileo stuff. However, in late 2024, GoGo acquired Satcom Direct for cash and stock, which is kind of another one of these internet providers um they have more of a military focus um they were one of the uh geo ones was it the geo what is it it's the ones that are way further up in orbit so they're these large ones they're kind of the old school style they're getting their market share taken away you know they got them at a um cheap price but it's a pretty sizable you know given their enterprise

Starting point is 00:43:34 values is a pretty big merger gogo uh according to the press release that when they finished the merger. They said they paid $375 million in cash and issued 5 million shares of GoGo and could pay up to an additional $225 million tied to realizing performance thresholds over the next four years. I'm unsure about the quality of SATCOM Direct's business. The earnings are later this week. When the annual report comes out, I just think there's a lot of uncertainty with this business today. So I need to really read this annual report closely, read this new proxy statement and see what the new incentives are and try to grasp and maybe reduce some of this uncertainty in my mind. But right now it's something I'm definitely not buying. I'm waiting for the

Starting point is 00:44:24 situation to play out. The stock looks incredibly cheap, but there are some things that need to get worked out here before i get more confident in adding to this position yeah do you have any numbers for us in terms of well the merger you know so on the old school numbers it still looks fairly cheap i think the enterprise value would be about 1.4 billion dollars and i think they can easily do a bill over 100 million in free cash flow and get to 200 million dollars within a couple of years but with this new business i'm just not sure so that's why without the earnings yet i think they probably just had to delay that annual report because they had so many new moving parts with this one uh we're in a tb demo so that's why i'm keeping in limbo what what would

Starting point is 00:45:12 you see that would cause you to sell here more delays on 5g more delays or not great uptake on 5g or the gogo galileo low earth orbit satellite and potentially a major deterioration is that in the satcom direct business because they got a cheap price but we'll see what the numbers look like they've been talking about this inflection to 100 million dollars plus in free cash flow relatively soon or at least on an annualized rate and that doesn't happen if they keep delaying that Well, then I'm just going to get out. This is not an investment where you don't need to go through everything, but they might get taken out by private equity.

Starting point is 00:46:00 There's kind of this moment where they need to confirm that 5G and these expansion strategies are going to work. And when that happens, either the stock is going to go up a lot or it's not going to go anywhere. And at that point, I'll decide to sell. And I would definitely sell if valuation came into play. Okay. Yeah. What's your, I guess, what's next up for you?

Starting point is 00:46:22 Next up is 16. So I'd say quite the middle of the pack. I wouldn't say I dislike this position, but it's one where I just like a lot of stuff in my portfolio today. And it's Philip Morris International. Ryan talked about this one already. Maybe he's a bit more optimistic on them at the moment. We've talked about that business, but according to our friends at FinChat, But EV to EBIT is 20. It's about a record high of the last 10 years, which is fair because they are showing quite a bit of inflection and growth within these reduced risk products, which could increase the terminal value of this business.

Starting point is 00:47:02 But we're seeing also an EV to free cash flow of 28.9. I don't think this is a crazy level for a company that I believe can grow its earnings per share at a 10% plus annual rate for the next five years. But I don't think it's dirt cheap anymore. Dividend yield's down quite a bit. I like the upside here. I would still not sell this to buy other tobacco businesses. But I have trimmed, at least, well, not recently.

Starting point is 00:47:31 I had trimmed a little bit lower than here. I have trimmed, and I would consider trimming. It already kind of matches up with this ranking as a smaller position, but still a core position. But I would consider trimming if it went up quite a bit more. and redeploying into somewhere else. But I still love this business. They're doing things quite well.

Starting point is 00:47:51 And out of all of the tobacco and nicotine players, they are running circles around the competition. Yeah, we're seeing a lot of excuses, I guess, from some of the other businesses as to why. I think you're the one that tweeted that, where it seems like British American Tobacco has a new excuse every year for why growth isn't going to be there.

Starting point is 00:48:12 philip morris is just pure execution yes yes sir and they are essentially similar businesses so i don't really see why things have to be that different but this company has shown time and time again that they can execute finchat.io is the complete stock research terminal for fundamental investors they have robust financial data on more than a hundred thousand stocks globally. That includes more than 10 years of income statements, balance sheet, cashflow, and even company-specific segment and KPI data. Want to see Amazon's advertising revenue? FinChat tracks it. Like to track NVIDIA's data center business? They've got that too. The breadth of FinChat segment and KPI data is truly one of a kind. You can go to finchat.io slash chitchat to

Starting point is 00:49:00 get 15% off any paid plans. If you sign up today, you'll automatically get two weeks of FinChat Pro for free no card required again that's finchat.io slash chit chat the link will be in the show notes all right next up nintendo all right so this one as we're recording the stock is falling fast on this tariff news i guess the console makers are going to get hit a bit by these uh tariffs of some sorts who knows we'll see what happens uh it changes it by the day uh so that's not really factoring into my situation here but it's factoring into what the stock is trading at so this one has been a decent winner for me but it's mainly been a winner due to multiple expansion and the anticipation of the switch to announcement that is coming for a full reveal this month and

Starting point is 00:49:51 it's going to go on sale for customers sometime in the calendar year 2025 today if we kind of do a little bit of math the nintendo's enterprise value is approximately 70 billion dollars give or take how you value everything on the balance sheet and its hidden assets if you want to be more aggressive could be cheaper if you want to be conservative could be more once the switch to operates and maybe ryan i made a chart here of their operating excuse me income of the last few years. I think once the switch to starts maturing. And, you know, within a year or two after launch, I think they can generate maybe 5 billion to 7 billion dollars in annual earnings, depending on where the Japanese or excuse me, the US dollar is trading compared to the euro

Starting point is 00:50:37 and the Japanese yen or where the dollar index is in general. But I don't think they could do much higher. So we look at a 70 billion dollar enterprise value. I think they can probably do $5 to $7 billion in earnings a year. They can start returning a ton of this cash to shareholders because their balance sheet is already so conservative and the Japanese government is really getting on these companies for having a very too conservative of a balance sheets. But the upside, yeah, I mean, I like it,

Starting point is 00:51:07 but I don't love it here. I'd probably still buy some shares, but I really love that they take care of this business over the long term. And they worried about creating value for all their stakeholders over the long term. but it's definitely not as attractive as it was back when I was training at $10.

Starting point is 00:51:24 Yeah. It's jumped a bit over the last six months specifically, which kudos to you. You were kind of, you were pounding the table on that. Uh, and I was reluctant, so maybe I should have listened.

Starting point is 00:51:38 All right. We're getting into, I guess the top half of your rankings here. What's up next for you? Yeah. This next one is Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, which we can just refer to as the Mexican Stock Exchange. It's one I bought recently. If you want a full breakdown of this stock, I'd go back and just search within our episode catalog. I did a

Starting point is 00:51:59 breakdown on them, I think in late 2024. And the thesis on them is simple, and I don't think it has changed. It is a monopoly that will be able to grow its earnings through pricing power plus counteracting inflation if the status quo remains, which is Mexican stock trading activity being low, new listings being almost non-existent for equities but being pretty decent for debt listings and it's just not great they're not it's not a great market it's nowhere near the same as the u.s markets but if mexican stock trading picks up again and listings start reappearing the reshoring boom we could see a home run investment here the revenue group again in a very tough operating environment. They grew revenue 6% in 2024. Operating income grew 7%

Starting point is 00:52:48 and was up 16% in Q4 of 2024. And we are still at a dividend yield of 5.8% or around on my cost basis, about 6.5%. Look, we're going to look at new listings. We're going to look at debt, or I'm going to look at new listings, new debt offerings, stock market trading, what pricing power they're going to have as long as that stays the same and revenue earnings and the dividend just keeps growing. I don't see any reason to sell. It's a little less cheap than it was when I bought, but we're at kind of the same period where I like this position. I don't love it versus some other ones because I don't think the upside is there as kind of a potential compound or position over the long term. Okay. After we go through the rest of your rankings, I'm going to

Starting point is 00:53:36 ask you a follow-up on a company that I know is on your watch list, but let's go to your next one. Number 11 for you. What do you have? Portillo's. This one has done well so far this year. It's done decently well in my portfolio, but we're still say when looking at it as a business perspective,

Starting point is 00:53:55 we're still barely in the, you know, quote unquote turnaround, uh, comp sales have moved in the right direction. They flipped a positive in Q4, of 2024. They should be okay in 2025, given their guidance, but there's a lot of progress that needs to be made in 2025 and 2026 on comp sales before I consider moving them up this list. This is one

Starting point is 00:54:20 of those ones where I guess I would say the range of outcomes on the Mexican stock exchange is probably narrow, but solid. Portillo's has a chance to be a 10 beggar, but also has a chance to go down 50 to 75% if things start to get worse in this expansion strategy. And Ryan has a nice chart here from our friends at FinChat on total restaurant count. If this expansion strategy across the Sunbelt, which for any reference, they're moving into Texas, Florida, and eventually Atlanta this year. So try them out if you live in those markets, but if it doesn't work out like they think, well, we could get into trouble here and we could see a take under if the price starts going down yeah i've got the auvs pulled up here and you can see that they're coming down a bit as

Starting point is 00:55:05 they launch these new restaurants that's to be expected though this is something that should continue because their chicago restaurants which they've had around for a long time are going to have much higher auvs than these expansion markets and as you looked at their their auv is still 8.7 million dollars so if they fall a little bit more they're essentially at chick-fil-a levels that's not necessarily a concern, but they need that comp sales overall, no matter what market they're in to keep up or surpass inflation. So instead of zero to 1% a year, we need to turn that around to about three to 5% a year. Yeah. And for anyone worried that average unit volumes could fall from $9 million a year to seven and a half or 8 million over the next

Starting point is 00:55:48 five years it's still profit accretive at that point if you've got a restaurant that's doing eight million dollars in sales every year uh it might not be the same margins as the legacy ones but it's nominally profit accretive which is great for sure value yeah right all right next one here now that any updates i don't think anything else we did that episode last week so go listen to that for the full update here again i'll for the audio listeners so portillo's was 11 um the mexican stock exchange was 12 and i put nelna at nine so there's definite separation between these two it's one that i would definitely buy before those two i like the company the management's great i mean go listen to that episode i think the stock is very cheap here but not overly cheap if it falls

Starting point is 00:56:38 a bit i it moves up quickly on the list uh when we would do these before so yeah nothing nothing else okay we're into your top four positions now what's the first one so number eight again it's number four but again number eight on the forced ranking thing so i don't really have anything in the one two i do have one in the three as a tease here but this first one is pacifico airports it's another mexican airport we haven't done a show on but it's one that's fairly similar to the central north airports and the thesis is still playing out they own for reference tijuana guadalajara puerto vallarta and cavo airports plus a few others and their numbers look fine q4 passenger traffic was up 1.4 percent aeronautical revenues were up 10.5 percent and commercial revenue grew

Starting point is 00:57:27 32.7 percent now here's the key in 2025 they are guiding for four percent to six percent traffic growth, but 23% to 25% aeronautical revenue growth. Now that means that the new contract they signed with the government is much more attractive than it previously was. And we should see sustained growth, especially as these new supply comes out line. And it relates to the next one on my list, which I have slightly higher, which is the same one Ryan owns. The central North airports is the same thesis is played above, but we have a slight delay because their new contract with the government is going to get negotiated this year. And I believe Central North Airports is slightly cheaper on a forward earnings basis. We look at the Pacifica one,

Starting point is 00:58:13 it's still quite cheap, I think we have. So they generated about 15 billion in pesos in operating income in 2024. And that gives them a 13 times earnings multiple. I think earnings can go by at least 50%, if not closer to 100% over the next five years. 13 times earnings, we could move it down to very well into the sub tens i like it and then with the central north airports we're seeing similar numbers and the key is that ryan didn't talk about already the renegade or sorry the updated master development contract with the mexican government that will be negotiated later in 2025 yeah it's interesting the thesis here is so clean right i mean these are government sanctioned monopolies basically and the numbers

Starting point is 00:59:02 are phenomenal you've got just consistent earnings per share growth like i believe high teens annual earnings per share growth for the last 20 years but when i talk to people about this they say you know what companies do you like right now i say oh you know this no one likes it no airports in Mexico. And they just, I'm not comfortable with the Mexico. I'm not comfortable investing in Mexico. And it's just not for any particular reason other than what they, I guess, kind of perceive Mexico to be like. And I think that's changed a lot and people fail to recognize that. But let's get into your top two positions here. What's your second highest? Yeah, these ones are similar. It's always nice to get confirmation bias and have us both

Starting point is 00:59:49 to have stuff in the same top here. So I put this one at number five, which is kind of really in the all right, I'm definitely going to buy unless it's already such a large position for me. And that is Remitley. Now this is Ryan's number one, we have a kind of a swap here. But let me just go through what I wrote. So we're at about $20 a share here. I believe it's a fantastic buy. I mean, that thesis is playing out and they're really accelerating the revenue growth and keeping up some of the strong growth with payment volume, users, revenue, gross profit. Market cap is $4.2 billion. They generated $750 million in gross profit in 2024 and have grown their gross profit at a 70% annual rate since 2019. Now, past growth doesn't matter, but they are only at a small

Starting point is 01:00:35 sliver of the remittance market globally. And they have plenty of share to take, as Ryan showed from that chart earlier that he had on his notes from Western Union and others. They have a long runway to grow here in the years to come. I believe the stock has a chance to be a 10-bagger over the next 10 years. If I deposit more money into my account now, I could see myself easily adding to the position. Now, in the short run, there could be some news around. Unfortunately, it's not something we're going to give a take on politically, but if a bunch of people get deported or less people come to the united states that is those are fewer people you know that's some of remitley's core customers here so that could be a headwind in

Starting point is 01:01:22 the near term if that political stuff ever materializes but i don't speaking frankly i don't think it's gonna those numbers of deportations are not going to be nearly as high as people are thinking in a downside scenario for remitley so i'm not too concerned about that But the news may be impacting them in that regard, and it doesn't kill this business. It just would perhaps present a headwind for a year if it actually happened. But I think it's extremely unlikely. They also asked about this on a recent conference call, and I remember them – Oppenheimer, the CEO, basically said very few of our customers that we're aware of would be in this situation. I mean, for one, I believe you have to link to a bank account, and it's not easy to get banking in the States without having, I guess, some form of citizenship, right?

Starting point is 01:02:21 Am I thinking about that right? Let's just say, Ryan, that's not correct. And I think he's just playing nice because he's trying not to say that a bunch of our users are not here legally, but I believe they are. Okay. All right. Well, let's go to your top position. Either way, they can't control that. The platform – that's not something outside of control. The platform will still be fine. It's not like there's going to be zero immigration into the United States. Yeah. And I would say looking out past this administration, do we think there's going to be more or less remittance volume in five years, 10 years? I would almost certainly say more. And Remitly is going to share even in the existing remittance volume. So you've got tailwinds plus market share, so kind of a double effect there. All right. Let's jump to your top position. What do you have?

Starting point is 01:03:20 Yeah, we're closing in on an hour here. So we guess time this one. Well, my favorite position, I think one that was in your top five, but not as high for you. And I would maybe I'll talk with you through some of this valuation. Maybe you agree or not that you think that I think it's dirt cheap and it's number three. So it's not like a number one here where I'm just pounding the table on it, but number three. So I think a very, very good buy here is Coupang. I think Coupang's results have been nothing short of astounding, and the stock really hasn't moved. At $22 a share, we're at a market cap of $41 billion. EV enterprise value is approaching about $38 billion. It's cashflow positive. It is investing in Taiwan, which is

Starting point is 01:03:59 seeing rapid growth. The South Korean cohorts still have a lot of room to grow on spending more on coupon products each and every year. They're adding more products to third-party logistics that Ryan mentioned. They're doing $30 billion in revenue today. I think they can well within their current growth trajectory with their existing businesses, but nothing special to the upside. I think we can get to $50 billion in revenue. And given their unit economics and given what they projected to earn, I think they have potential now that they're going to do it. But when they hit $50 billion in revenue, I think they can easily generate $5 billion a year in free cash flow. Today, we're at $41 billion market cap, EV of $38 billion that EV is going

Starting point is 01:04:44 to separate if they don't buy back stock because of the positive free cash flow they're generating today. I think the stock is dirt cheap at this level and could double over the next three years and be a perfect long-term holding given their execution, given how well their management team has done and just how much i trust them yeah i don't know if i it's hard to call whenever something has risen in price it's always easy to anchor to the previous valuation so maybe i'm kind of stuck to that and thinking that it isn't as cheap as it once was maybe it's not cheap in absolute terms but yeah look i think five billion dollars a year in free cash flow is a very reasonable figure for context they're doing more than two billion dollars in adjusted

Starting point is 01:05:35 earnings just on their core e-commerce business uh so so yeah and the margins are continuing to rise there so i suspect you're right five billion dollars is achievable i think this is a business that should trade at more than what would that basically be seven times yeah seven or eight times potential earnings yeah i'd say it's really cheap at these levels and the thing i really like about coupon is just the deepening competitive advantages they i mean they are following the amazon playbook which i know sounds too simple for a thesis but Like, everything they've done seems to have provided more and more value to customers, which has resulted in customers spending more money with them. And they've also got all the same sort of margin levers that they can pull as well between, and it's not like Amazon invented this, like, advertising on a marketplace, maybe they were one of the early ones, but they're following that playbook. And that's going to be margin accretive, outsourcing the logistics advantage that you've built, providing that as they're not outsourcing, but making it publicly available, making it available to customers.

Starting point is 01:06:56 That's another margin advantage because you've already done, you've already put in the fixed costs to build that. So, yeah, I just think there's a ton to like with coupon in terms of the business and the valuation is really attractive. So I can see why that's a top holding for you. my question for you you've got a number of mexican stocks here but there's one you don't have which is i'm actually blanking on the name but the dominoes the the i'll say a group yeah i'll say a group they primarily franchise dominoes and starbucks i think are the two biggest chains under their burger king branch those three why not include them yeah they are close up on the watch list here i guess i don't see any reason to switch like gogo i still think is highly

Starting point is 01:07:49 attractive but it's at this uncertain period so i'll say it was probably my top one two or three on the watch list at the moment i do think it's quite attractive here uh what i am waiting for is GoGo's earnings and annual report because that's the one in my portfolio that I'm waiting to either keep or switch out with something else. This is one that I could sell at a loss and get rid of in 2025.

Starting point is 01:08:17 And I'll say it would definitely be up there. Okay. I think that covers all the positions in both of our portfolios. Let me sum up the one, the four that I'm definitely going to be adding to while I have more money deposited into my account sometime this spring would be the Pacifico Airports, Central North Airports, Remitly, and Coupang.

Starting point is 01:08:43 Ryan, what are yours? Remitly, Deer Horton, Philip Morris, Coupang? Not really adding to Philip Morris just because of the size of the position for me right now, but Google is in there. google remitly and actually yeah the north airports but i'm also i want i might want a little more exposure to a little more diversification within my mexico bets overall right now i just have the north central airports but maybe pacific airports and i'll say i think are probably top two for me as far as mexican stocks yeah and there's also walmex the railroad

Starting point is 01:09:25 Oh, I don't know the railroad. Well, Walmart's could be interesting as well. No, I don't. That's Walmart, Mexico. But yeah, lots of interesting ones there. Lots of ones I hope throughout this episode that people got a chance to hear us talk about. So we try to do this once a year

Starting point is 01:09:41 and go through the portfolio, force rank everything, see if we want to make any major changes. I don't think any major changes this year, but definitely ones. Ryan and I's portfolio that we're thinking of selling or thinking of adding to once we get more money deposited into our personal accounts. if you want any updates on these this list or excuse me just the written stuff along with the

Starting point is 01:10:01 episode subscribe to our newsletter if you want to talk about the episode we'll do so on twitter but maybe the best place to do that is our chat community on substack so when you sign up for the newsletter you get included to the chat community and you can join that and join the conversation there as well if you like this episode give us a review on spotify or apple podcast we are not financial advisors. Anything we say on this show is not formal advice or recommendation. Ryan, I, or any podcast guests may hold securities discussed in this podcast. I've held them in the past and may buy, sell, or hold them in the future. Thank you everyone for tuning in and we'll see you next time.

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