Brexit: Where Is All This Headed? (Part 2)
00:00Welcome to the Postcard Academy. I'm your host, Sarah Micatel, in American, living in England,and today I am bringing back my Brexit buddy and former colleague Mark Robson to explain, in easy tounderstand terms, how Brexit is affecting life today, and how we might be able to get out of thistwo-and-a-half-year quagmire. You'll also get another lesson in British history, and who doesn'tlove that. And you will findshow notes including a funny and usefulBrexit explainer video onpostcardacademy.co.
00:37Let's jump back into my conversationwith Mark. They voted forBrexit in 2016andit's 2019 and there's stillall of this confusion. They've spentbillions of dollars, I think.And I'm not actually even
00:53sure how much has been wastedon this entire affair.But why can't they get anywhere?So we voted for the referendum, the biggest vote in public history in 2016.To kick off the leaving process is this thing called Article 50.And Article 50 is built by the European Union for anybody who wants to leave.It's kind of the here we go, we want to get out card.And it lasts two years, which is, you know, it's a big deal, it's a big process.
01:21And so it's understandable that it takes two years.And that's supposed to end on March 29th this year.And so Theresa May didn't bring it in to effect until she'd had an election because she wanted to be sure that people were voting for her and her policies rather than the previous government where David Gammon quit.So that came in, she triggered it and they started the negotiations.But it's only in the last six months.I'm trying to think when they first brought the deal, maybe five months ago, that they,said, right, here's the deal we've come up with that's taken as the best part of two years tocome up with. And pretty much across the board, nobody liked it. Because for the hardline
02:09people, there's not enough freedom. For the people who wanted to stay in, it's not reallyclose enough that they're kind of not given enough powers or not enough of a relationshipwith Europe. And then a lot of it is basically we'd still have to,be under EU law, but not be in the club that gets to decide those laws.What are the major issues?Can you explain the Irish backstop?I think that's one of the biggest things.For anyone who doesn't know, a lot of the world does not know that Ireland
02:41it's an own country, but Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom.Do you want to talk about what the United Kingdom is really quick?Yeah.Wow.This is a very serious podcast.Okay.So the UK is, the full name of the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.And everybody calls it the UK.
03:02So Great Britain is the bit to the right of Ireland that is England, Wales and Scotland.And then the Northern Ireland is like the tip of the island of Ireland, which is very confusing.And that's part of the UK.And those four countries make up the UK.and the problem is Ireland, the country, which is nearly all of the island, the territory,would stay part of the EU.And so there would be a border between the EU and the UK on the island of Ireland.Right.
03:41So, yes.So that's what people have caused a lot of stress about becausethere was a lot of troubles there, so you may know about the IRA and bombings and sort of 70s, 80s, 90s, they call it the troubles.And there was a lot of stuff.And then, you know, Bill Clinton and Tony Blair and John Major and a few other people helped bring all that to a stop.Yeah.With this thing called the Good Friday Agreement.But it's still super sensitive over there.
04:11I was in Belfast last year touring around and there's kind of graffiti everywhere still.these big walls and they still have like a door that closes at midnight to stop people goinginto the wrong areas. So it's kind of on a knife edge. It's like you don't want to upset anything.And so if they bring in, I think today is actually the anniversary, I think 47 years ago,or at least this week, I think 47 years ago was Bloody Sunday. So that's when 13 people werekilled by British paratroopers actually when they fired into a civil rights protest.So you mentioned the troubles. So that was, just say really quick, what the troubles were, why were they fighting?So back in the day when there was the British Empire, that thing we were talking about earlier, when half, was it, a third of the world was pink.
05:04So the UK basically owned or controlled a third of the world. Ireland was part of the UK. So they got independence after the Second World War. That's not right. I need to get my facts straight.They got independence after the first World War, I want to say.I think so they're an independent country.But the UK kept hold of the top bit because years ago, the UK put a load of people in the top bit from England.They gave them the land as like a gift for like a lord or what have you.And so the people in the top bit kind of favoured staying in the UK.This is a terrible version of Irish history, so I do apologize, but this is kind of the basics.And then it kind of goes down religious lines.
05:54And so the people in the top bit tend to be Protestant, and the people in Ireland, the country tend to be Catholic.And so there's a lot of fight about that.And a combination of these two things led to the troubles.So did the people in Ireland proper want, were they fighting to make Northern Irelandpart of Ireland?Yes.So not everybody in Ireland.A lot of people in Ireland don't care one way or the other.
06:20But a lot of people in Ireland would like the whole of the island of Ireland to be one thing.And then there's a bunch of people in Northern Ireland who also want the whole ofIreland to be one country and not anything to do with the UK.But the problem is there's also a bunch of people in Northern Ireland who want to staypart of the UK.And so that's where a lot of this fight came from.we want to stay, we want to leave,independence, Catholic, Protestant.
06:48And the Brits came in with their policeand with their army to try and break it all upand try and set everything down.And they kind of just made it worse.They were super heavy-handed.They were sort of bias.And it just got messy.And so the guys became terrorists
07:05since they started blowing up places in Londonand in the UK and in Ireland.And they just went on for yearsand a lot of people were killed.This is where the Irish backstop comes into agreement.Okay.Everybody recognizes that you put any kind of wall up there,and it could just tip this fine balance over the edge,
07:25and you could start the troubles again,and you could kind of sort all problems.And so everybody wants this frictionless border.But the problem is, how can you have a frictionless borderif one bit's in the EU and one bit's not?The EU has laws and it's going to have taxesand going to have tariffs on products.And so they're going to need an inspection at that border for all these things.
07:49What they say is that until a further deal is sorted out,the UK has to stay in the EU so that that border remains frictionless.So if the UK is successful in leaving the EU,they'll have different tariffs on each of their products.Right now, there's zero tariffs on anything in all the 28 EU countries.but to get a competitive advantage, the UK might say,okay, now we're free, we're going to impose a 10% tax on anything coming to the EU.And so to levy that tax,
08:24they're going to need to have a customs inspection at that border.And so you'd have posts and you'd have barriers and you'd have customsand you'd have agents checking,so make sure nobody's smuggling anything in without paying those tariffs.But nobody wants that.And so the EU said, okay, fair enough.But until we get that figured out how we're going to get around that frictionless border,you've got to stay in the EU.
08:51Because while you're in the EU, we don't mind stuff going over that border back and forth.So it is like, okay, cool.But they're forcing the UK to stay in the EU.So at the moment, the UK can't say, do you know what?We haven't reached an agreement.We're done with this.We'll see you later.because the EU says you've got to stay in until we figure it out.
09:13Otherwise, there's walls and barriers going up and nobody wants that.So they voted that they do not want to leave on no deal terms, right?Yeah.But so back in January, they voted for that.They definitely voted for that yesterday.So the no deal is basically we just pull out.There's no agreement with the EU.and we go to this thing called World WTO rules,
09:42which basically means we're on,we don't have a trade deal with anybody.So people talk against thatbecause we've set up some deals alreadywith about six countries.But basically with the rest of the world,the other 190-odd countries,we've got no deals with it.
09:59And so we're going to suffer massivelybecause people can charge whatever tariff they like to usbecause we've not done a deal with them.Yeah.And it's not just trade.Like no deal.They're predicting that GDP would plummet, that unemployment would go up.And you mentioned like the borders.
10:17If the UK doesn't have open borders with Europe, the UK imports 50% of its food.And now people are stockpiling food because they're wondering, okay, what's going to happen?Are they going to stop these trucks from coming in?Like these are like scary.I've heard this week I've actually heard the UK being compared to Venezuela.like what's happening?Yeah, exactly.So people are worried about, so all the paperwork for like a flight to land is all tied up
10:46with EU law because it's kind of been developed over the last few years.And like a boat coming in is all that paperwork's tied up.And then my colleague, for example, her boy is he's lactose intolerant.And so he has to have almond milk.And this almond milk that she buys comes from Sweden.But if there's massive queues at the border because the UK is now custom inspecting everything coming in,you know, so that milk could deteriorate.I'm not mean to laugh, but it's like that milk could deteriorate.
11:18And so they go back to Sweden with all this stuff that's gone off and the shops in the UK don't have that milk.And so there's all that kind of anxiety.So basically, nobody in their right mind wants a no deal.That's not a neutral thing to say because the hard right people in the conservative.Conservative Party and a couple of other folks, they do want a no deal because they just want out of the EU.And they're like, we'll figure it out. We'll have a couple of bad years until we get all thesethings in place, these deals and what have you, but we just want out. We're done with the EU.And so people are looking on that. But the vast majority of people, whether they voted leave or
11:56remain, they want to kind of deal with the EU. And so over these last few days, Theresa Mays had to kind ofgive into that viewpoint and they held a vote on it and by a pretty big majority yesterday they saidno to no deal. The only problem is if we don't get this legal extension to this, you rememberthis Article 50 process I told you about? Yep. That's in law. And so the law says that on Marchthe 29th, failing anything else, we just exit the EU. So if there's no deal, if there is a deal, if there is adeal, whatever, we exit on March to 29th.And so even though there's been this vote yesterday to say,we're definitely leaving with, sorry, we're definitely not leaving with no deal,
12:47that's not legally binding.And so.Because the EU has to approve the extension.So, yeah, so there's a few options.So if we don't want to leave with no deal,then we either need to stop the Brexit process altogether.You can do this thing called Rev.Article 50.
13:07Or you can have an extension to it, but the EU are only going to give an extension if there's a goodreason.So if we're going to have a general election, or if we're going to have another referendum,or if they're working specifically to achieve a new deal.And so that's the only really reasons you can stop this.Yeah, I don't know why they would let them extend unless it was just, as you said,to hope they would change their minds because they've had years to work on this.What is a few months, like, what can they possibly figure out in a few months?
13:40Well, exactly, right?Two years to figure this out.But the problem is they've kind of been narrow-minded.They've only talked amongst themselves.They haven't opened up to the rest of the country and other different political viewpoints.And so nobody to get us out on Theresa May's deal, the parliament has to vote for it.But kind of nobody wants it because it's imperfect for everybody.Yeah.
14:00And I'm not sure if I mentioned, I should have that when we were in.that march over the summer, we were marching for another people's vote, for another referendum,which a lot of people want. Why do people want or not want it?So a bit like the Trump election, there's a lot of whispers, a lot of thought that the campaignto leave the EU was slightly dodgy. So there's whispers of Russian involvement, there'swhispers of Cambridge Analytica and manipulation of Facebook.And there was this really great dramatization with Benedict Cumberbatch,the actor recently.
14:43And it explained how the mastermind for the Leave campaign went on Facebook andwith this Cambridge Analytica helped find people who had never voted and who mightbe perfect targets for Leave and targeted them to get them to vote.And so basically the Remain people think a lot ofdodgenus went on and so they're like well let's rerun the election one because of that the other thingis as well there wasn't a lot of information people felt before the first referendum the government put outlike a booklet and there's a few things on TV but again every thought we weren't going to lose and sothere wasn't that much information put out there so a lot of people voted blindly and like to your point
15:25right at the beginning of this people didn't even know what the EU was and yet they voted against it and sopeople think now that people know exactly what the deal is because there's been nothing but this onTV and radio and on the internet for like two years let's have another vote and then the other thingis as well people now know what the option is what the deal is so let's have another vote but thepeople who want the second vote also are typically the people who want to stay in the EU and so thepeople who want to leave the EU are like no we voted two years ago we won that's itdone deal. And so that's kind of where we are. And there was a vote. Sorry, go ahead. I just wanted to sayreally quick. So when we say there was a referendum and people voted, this kind of vote was not like,
16:16okay, we voted and this is exactly what it needs to be. That vote was meant to just share theiropinion. But then it was parliament that actually had to make the decision. Is that right? Yeah, I kind of know whatyou mean. So it technically wasn't legally binding. So it didn't it doesn't go straight into law like anelection or something like that. But the UK has this history of sticking to the rules. And sothere was two votes against the EU in previous times. So in France and in Ireland, they didn'tmanage to ratify a treaty. And but what they did, they just put it straight to a secondvote after a couple of years, sort of re-educated the people, and it went through. But the UK is verysort of, we stick to the rules in things like that. And because so many people voted, no, they
17:08kind of went with it, triggered their thing, and this is where we are. So it's almost like a, in some ways,you could see it as like a bit of an accident of how we got here. But yeah, we do always tend tohonor those things. So why do you, you personally, and then all the people we marched with andall the other people who are in support of why we marched, but who weren't out there,why do you think it's okay to have another vote if people voted a different way?Well, for me, people call it undemocratic, right?But for me, it's the ultimate democracy.Because if all those same people still want to leave, then they'll win again.
17:47What's the problem?And people say, oh, yeah, but if you have a second one, then if you don't get your way,you'll get a third one.And if you don't get your way, you'll get a fourth one.But it's not about that.I think there was so much.which, like, misinformation before the first one,and just a lack of awareness of what the EU even was,
18:05that I think running a second one wouldn't be a bad thing.And then I don't think there's any question on anybody who's in favor of a second referendum,that if that one is lost, then that's it.There isn't a third one and a fourth one.This is just because of all the misinformation,because of the lack of awareness,and also because of the lack of this specific deal,that Theresa Mayers has agreed, right?
18:29It's not just, if we were pulling out without a deal,that would almost be simplerbecause that's kind of how the referendum was,like in or out.But because she's got this specific,intricate deal with things like the backstopand stuff like that,I think that needs to be ratified by the people
18:45because, you know,does that match my simple yes, no,in out vote that I made two and a half years ago?Yeah, when we were in that March,I saw a kid holding a signAnd it said something like my, you know, my ideas can evolve based on like what I learn and the information that I have.And, you know, wouldn't it be great if our government can work the same?Exactly.
19:10Because, you know, I think voting is quite serious.And for most things, yeah, you wouldn't want to have a re-vote.But if you, I think of it this way.Like if a bunch of people voted to bring back slavery or, you know, some other horrible things that we've did in the past, would we be like, all right,Well, the people spoke, so let's bring back slavery, you know?Exactly, right?If we know based on, like, what economists are saying that this is going to ruin the British economyand have all of these other devastating effects, why are we going through with this?
19:43Why is Theresa May?So, like, yeah.I don't know.But then there's a few things this week.So Theresa May is still trying to get this deal through, right?So she's had this thing called a meaningful vote.And then this week, she had the second meaningful vote, which she lost again.And so anybody would think, okay, well, then that's dead.
20:07But she's going to put it to a third meaningful vote next week because she thinks her way is the only way.And, you know, she's got this robotic persona.And so people are saying, well, hold on, isn't that little bit, you know, contradictory?You're saying people can't vote again.People can't have changed their minds in two and a half years.And yet you're pushing your same thing.through three times in two months.So it's like, yeah,
20:30it's all a bit contradictoryand hypocritical.Well, and I also wonderwhat I wonderwhat world the media is living inbecause I feel like I'm always,the media is always seeming surprised.Like, oh my goodness,
20:44I can't believe that she like,people voted her down so hardcore.And I'm like, of course they did.You knew that was coming.Why are you surprised that nobody wants her deal?Nobody wants your deal, Teresa.Nobody wants your deal, Teresa.That is very true.
21:00But to be honest, the margin, I mean, what a lot, there's a lot of kind of subparativesaround in the press at the moment, but it's because this is such a serious situation.I think a lot of people are calling it as serious as like the Second World War or somethinglike that.And so the scales of these things are off the charts.So the first time her vote got voted down was the biggest ever defeat for a government ever,And so normally what would happen, whatever we'd call her to resign and she would resign and that's that.But she's lost two of these votes now.
21:32And the second one was the fourth biggest loss ever.And still she's there.And I think it's because nobody wants that job.Nobody wants that job for one, bless her.And I think also it just doesn't make sense.It's already such a mess.The last thing you need is a leadership election.And plus a lot of the people who want to stay in like myself.
21:55like yourself, if you get somebody else from the Conservative Party and they're likely going to bemore hard line than her and just go crazy and leave without a deal or something like that.And so she's like the better the devil you know, you know, she's like keep her thereand just let her keep bashing on about this deal and hopefully something good or come out of it.But now they're saying that she might win by losing.There's all these sort of contradictory statements and all that love.it's getting so close now that the people who want a really hard Brexit have been voting against her deal.But now they're thinking maybe the only way they'll get Brexit is by voting for her deal.
22:39And so now they're saying maybe she'll get some more votes because of that.Well, breaking news, I'm seeing a headline now.UK Parliament rejects second referendum and latest Brexit vote.But supporters say they're not going to let this be the last chance.to make a people's vote happen?No, so I can give you some more boring explanation on that as well.Just real quick.I'll give this top line.
23:03So with all these things they put through,they put these things called motions,and the government and the guys in the parliament vote for it.And it's super old-fashioned.The guy's shouting and he's like, clear the lobby.And they go and they walk through these doors.They don't tick a box or anything like that.They physically walk through the door
23:23and somebody stood there, counted them.And that's how they vote.And then on all these motions, not all of them, but most of them, the government says,well, you can put amendments forward.And so the government puts the wording up, but people can put an amendment through.And then if there's an amendment and it gets selected, then people can vote on that amendment.And so this vote today was basically about extending Article 50.That's all it was about.
23:51but the people who want a vote, or some of them, a second vote,they put an amendment into the kind of the long text of this motion.So it's saying, yes, we want an extension, but blah, blah, blah, we'd also like a second vote.And so that's what got put to the vote today.Now, there's this organization, kind of like a charity, kind of like a political thing,called the people's vote that have been doing a lot of the organization from a second referendum.And they did a lot of an organization for that march we went on.And they're sensing that the moment isn't yet right.
24:28So there's the people who are for it, and there's some people who are wavering,but the vast majority of people aren't there yet in the parliament to vote for a second vote.And so they didn't want this second vote today.And so the scores were something like 349 against 85,which is kind of a big loss,but what's really significant is that the Labour Partyand a couple other folks abstains.So that's like no vote at all
24:59because they're not ready to push this yet.So you can't really see it as a defeat of 349 against 85.It's more likely a defeat of 350 against 300,which is a lot closer.And it's because the vast majority of peoplewho want a second vote, they're just not ready.They don't think it's the right moment yet.So when's going to be the right moment?
25:24Well, when it gets closer to the knife edge.We're almost there.We're six days away.We're almost there.Well, I know, but now we fly for an extension.And so the extension could either be 30th of June.That's what the motion said today.But that's because Theresa May thinks will agree her deal.
25:46and we need to get that extra time to get all the formalities through.That's what today's thing was all about.If we don't agree her deal by March the 20th,then she's going to go to the EU and ask for an extension,but probably a longer one, because there's nothing agreed.There's no plan.But the EU won't do that without a plan.This is so complicated.
26:13So basically, if we get to Monday,March the 20th, we've not agreed her deal. The EU says, what's the plan? Otherwise, we're notextending and you've got nine days left. And so the plan might be, well, we're going to have areferendum and it's going to take us six months to organize. And so that's more likely when thereferendum will come in. And one of the things that get in a lot of popularity is these two guyshave come up with another one of these amendments. This is so complicated and I do apologize.No, I think you're breaking it down nicely. Go on.But what their amendment is, and they'll likely put it next week.
26:52So the word on the street and all these rumor blogs I read is that she's going to bringher vote back for a third time next week just before March the 20th.Because on March 21, there's a meeting of all the EU people, and they're going to talk aboutthis stuff.And so she's going to bring it back for a third time.And then the amendments that vote is likely to be,we will agree and approve your voteif you then put it to the referendum.
27:21So it's a kind of a,we're doing something for you,we're doing something for us,this is going to break the impassethat everybody's talking aboutbecause her vote keeps getting stopped by Parliament.And so they're like,if this is your final deal,
27:37let's put it to the peopleand let's have the people agree it or not.Or the other option is we remain in the EU.And so if that happens next week, they think that that might get more votes than tonightwhere it only got 8.5, but like I say, it was probably realistic.It would have been about 300 if all those people hadn't voted.Positive vibes, everybody.Yes, that makes sense.
28:01Positive vibes.Well, I remember before we went to that March before, the press was like, what dreamers,what fools?Do they really think that you can have another vote?No way.Well, you know what?That might be coming.I hope.
28:14I hope so because, you know, it's like all of these catastrophic things can happen for UK, the EU, the rest of the world.But on a personal level, like, I'm scared that I'm not going to be able to stay here, you know,and I'm like an expat slash immigrant at this point who's been here for years.I feel like this is my home.And I don't know what will happen to me, you know, if Brexit happens.So, so complicated and messy. And it just feels like, and I'm sorry for all the people who votedthe way, it just feels like one of those things that was wrong and was a mistake. So best casescenario, we're going to have another vote and we're going to vote to stay. Let's hope.
28:57Yay. Well, thanks for breaking all of this down for us today, Mark. No worries at all. I'm so sorryif it's so complicated, but it is really complicated. Yeah, but I think, you know, there's newsstories all the time about Brexit, but I feel like this discussion helped break it down inlike layman's terms because it is a lot to understand. And there's so much history involvedin all of this. That is it. Yeah, a lot of this has come from historical stuff, you know,the UK running half the world and all of this stuff that we just don't anymore. We need theEU and they need us. And it's just, it's a great thing for all of Europe to come together. Like you said,before it's stopped all these wars over the years. And then yeah, I just don't see the reason for
29:46breaking it up or getting out of it. Well, Mark, thank you so much for talking to me today. Where canpeople go to find out even more about Brexit if they still have questions? Well, thank you so much,sir. It's been amazing. It's been really great to talk about this stuff and get a lot of it offmy chest, quite frankly. There's so much going on in my head with this. There's so much informationout there about Brexitif you really want to dig into it,but also really nice things like animationsand simplified versions.
30:14I'd always go to the Guardiannewspaper. They've got a US site,they've got an Australian site and a UK site,but I think it's accessible from pretty much anywhere.And of course, the BBC,it's got links to the government,you know, it's funded by this TV license,but they're pretty independent.
30:31They're trying to make sure they're always equally balanced.And they've got some super kind of dumb it down guidesto what on earth is the backstop? What are things like the Mold House compromise? And they explainall these terms that come up. And so if you do want to find out, I'd recommend those sources.But if you go to your usual news outlet, they're also probably going to have a big Brexit piece,even in the US. Okay. Awesome. Thank you so much, Mark.Thanks so much, Sarah. Have a great day. Thank you. Bye.Even though I live in England and have a lot at stake regarding Brexit and listen to the news all the time about it,
31:08I've found the situation to be quite confusing until Mark and I had this chat.Thank you very much, Mark.I now have such a better understanding of Brexit and its historical context,and hopefully you feel the same way and have all sorts of facts you can impress your friends with this weekend.Show notes can be found on postcardacademy.com.Oh, and by the way, in this episode, I said that we were at the People's March this summer.It was actually October, and the weather was so brilliantly sunny that I forgot what season it was.That's all for now. Thanks for listening, and have a beautiful week wherever you are.
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