Clinton Jaws - This Is The Most Hilarious Trump Prediction Of ALL TIME!

Episode Date: February 21, 2026

The Lincoln Project gets everything wrong predicting Trump Will Lose by a landslide.#trump #usa

What? A major Trump donor and a major Trump supporter. I love the pause. Can we see that pause again? People who are very online, you know, and very into politics. How can you be so wrong? For the most into this. How is this still up?

Autumn kind of drops out of Trump's support. You're allowed to delete videos. Clinton Jaws, the last one. I was given a gift this Christmas. Somebody, and I can't find the guy. But he said, I think it was on Twitter. Twitter. He sent me a message. He said, Clint, you got to watch this video. You got to do something on this video. And then I watched it. I watched part of it. I'm like, oh my God. Yes, I do. I have to do it.

It's a famous podcast called The Lincoln Project. Never heard of them, but they're famous. They got a lot of subscribers. Let's get into it. This recording is being put in the can on Saturday morning. And given that things have been so crazy, we could have any number of new incidents between now and Tuesday. But as of this moment, I'm talking to three of those brilliant minds in American politics. Trigby Olson, Lickin Projects, Senior Advisor and the Mastermind behind our political operation. Mastermind. And our Adelaidex. Stuart Stevens, the legendary, the mastermind, a guy who has more experience than any of us to find, who has a deeper understanding of.

American politics, almost anyone I know. Deep. And of course, Jeff Timmer, our campaign manager, the chief operating officer of the LinkedIn project. The man who makes all the moving parts move together as one expert on the northern tier blue wall states. I am honored, gentlemen, to have you here for this last roundup before

the votes are cast. Do a round robin here. And find out as of Saturday morning or Saturday afternoon at 12.11 p.m. East Coast time. What do you think the state of the races? I'll start with you, Treg. Well, I'm going to be a little bias to Wisconsin. I was saying I feel pretty good about where Wisconsin is. I think Harris is on a trajectory to probably win by more than the 20,000 votes that four of the last six have been determined by. There's a lot of energy, and you're seeing that in the polls here. I think Wisconsin looks really good.

It's a shoe win. Really good. Look, I think she's going to win by about the same margin that Obama won and 12. Oh, wow. 3.9. That's a big prediction. I particularly am watching North Carolina. He's a legend. It'll probably come in pretty early. She's got it. She's got it. And she'll end up winning the race not because she won North Carolina.

It'll just mean that a bunch of other states on the bubble like we talked about before. Yeah. But I think she should win by a larger margin than bind. I think you need to read more books. With that analysis. I'm fairly bold. on what's going to happen on Tuesday and in the aftermath as everything has counted. Looking at Pennsylvania at Michigan and Wisconsin, it just really looks like as I dig down

into the minutia of the numbers that everything points toward a Harris win in all three of those states. When Trump loses North Carolina, and he's going to have to run about, oh, 12, 15 points ahead of Mark Robinson in order to win. in order to win the state. Nice drapes, though. That's something that is going to be somewhat of an undertow for him. It's when he loses. North Carolina, that's an indication that he's going to lose the rest of the states that come in that night, or most of them. And I wouldn't even be surprised to see something unexpected like we saw in 2008,

where Obama wins a random state like Indiana, not saying that Harris is going to win Indiana. Why even talk to know? But if she were to happen to win Florida after disparaging the Puerto Ricans and Haitians who live there after Trump has, I wouldn't be surprised at this point. I mean, you could tell me sitting there what's going to happen. But it could turn into the kind of night where the bottom kind of drops out of Trump's support. Well, why wouldn't it? I think we've all seen the Trump campaign falling apart in front of us since Madison Square Garden.

Dismal. I mean, it was falling apart before that. But that precipitated, I think, a pretty hard collapse. It's getting harder for him to get a crowd in the room. I mean, Jeff, you said last night of Trump's rally in Michigan. You've had more people in your kitchen. It was sad. Nobody showed up to Trump's Michigan rally?

Please welcome the next president of the United States. I can't believe I'm watching this. I can't believe I'm watching this. The kind of night where the, how is this still up? autumn kind of drops out of Trump's support. You're allowed to delete videos. Complete with the xenophobic rhetoric. I'm going to have to Google that one.

The so-called comedian went out there and did more damage to Trump's campaign. Kill Tony. Hard to believe, saying that that Trump has managed to do himself. That's where the Trump campaign began when he ends up losing on Tuesday, that that was the beginning of the end. Right there. that exclamation point on his loss, just as I think Harris's speech Tuesday night at the ellipse was an absolutely brilliant campaign. Get rid of babies.

Get rid of babies. That she's able to draw that juxtaposition between Trump on January 6, 2021, and her standing there on the night in late October saying, let's go take back our country from that spot on the ellipse where a Trump said, let's go tear our country down. So, Stuart, you know, when you go into a rally like they went into the other night. Legend. For affinity Puerto Ricans making jokes about blacks carving watermelons, making jokes about Jews won't part with their money. They don't part with their money. It's a sign of a campaign that really is trying to feed only a tiny fraction of its base at this point.

I agree. Talk to me. Talk to me. The Trump messaging in the last few days. As a girlfriend that once says it. As you like to say, and I think it's a really good phrase, Trump's not getting any new customers. Yeah, you know, I think this was a fascinating week because you saw more than any week I can remember in a presidential campaign, two campaigns operating at entirely different levels. And one of the striking things I think about the Madison Square Garden rally besides the freak show that it was, then when this guy went out and said this stuff about Puerto Rico and Latinos, nobody rushed into Donald Trump's holding room and said, look. You have to go out and denounce this as soon as you're on stage.

You got to tell him. And maybe they did. Maybe he refused, but it didn't happen. And that it's just going to do them in. You know, everybody talks about how did this Joe get in there? But the fact that once it was in there, nobody thought to denounce it. I think it's just, you know, a sign of complete dysfunction as opposed to.

Shameful. When Harris had this great rally down in Houston, Reproduct a Breit's Rally and then the Redmondable Rally and the Lips, they're just operative. operating at a really high level. So you think about it. What was Donald Trump saying? You know, for a couple of days, he was saying he wasn't a Nazi.

Not particularly effective. Now he's out there in these garbage trucks with this. I mean, it looks ridiculous. Garbage trucks. It's not going to work, Trump. So I think they are inside of this bubble. They don't have a sense of

how to expand their message. And, you know, what? You should go back to that moment in the convention when they had to prepare checks for Trump. That clearly was what they thought needed to be said to win the election. Uh-huh. Versus what he ended up saying. What?

So are you drunk? If you were in Chris Las Savita's brain more than you already are, or Susie Wiles's brain, what would you be trying to do in this last week? In this last weekend of real craziness and real intensity. How many subscribers do these people have? I just want to know. 1.2 million. Trump world now for anybody to be really in control.

Makes sense. And that's another side of the campaign that isn't working geniuses. The truth of the matter is. Oh, we're going to hear the truth. This is something that isn't being talked about enough. You don't really see it until you get on the graph. They're getting their asses kicked in the blocking and tackling of politics. Not knocking on doors.

Door knocking. Like the Democrats are all over it. They've got more energy. Guys, you got a knock on doors. from college who I didn't you know I'm not that close with who reached out to me and said hey I know you're in politics you know I went and knocked on doors today wow and for harrison and later in the day a trump person came up my driveway and realized that I was backing Harris and my husband and I were standing there talking to him he was from florida and he admitted to us he wasn't even going to vote for

Trump. Nobody is. And said that there was nobody in the neighborhood. You think the neighborhood was supposed to be prime territory, which it should be. She's winning Florida. Trump in the neighborhood. You know, this is upper middle class. Oh, I just think Chris and Susie realized where this is headed. Chris and Susie are, have a lot of other business to protect, you know, public affairs work, corporate work and other stuff. Nice class. They're not going to want to take the blame for Madison Square Guard. And they're already positioning themselves on it. They're not.

going to want to take credit blame for Elon and Elon Musk isn't probably either he's getting ripped off to the tune of a hundred million dollars what's he thinking like Susie and Chris aren't going to want to take the blame for that and Chris and they probably won't want to take the blame with Elon either so you know a campaign is losing when they're explaining events at Madison Square Garden but when you get to the weekend before an election yeah and you have the two may people in the in the in the in the campaign defending themselves in the Atlantic. You have them going to North Carolina four times rather than to Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

Why would you do that? You had them skipping the Ohio State Penn State football game or the Detroit Lions free campaign game where the Harris campaign is all over that. All over the football games. You're getting your, those are not good signs. Not a good sign mastermind. You're right. They're really bad signs.

Bad signs. For where you think it is. Yeah. Regardless of what you're saying. publicly. So Jeff, you have been a guy who knows the operational workings of campaigns very, very well. He's an expert.

The interior of it, the strategic matching the strategic objectives up. Wow. When you see Trump going to Virginia, New Mexico, and backing and filling in North Carolina when these blue wall states are clearly where the fight is. Because, you know, as we all know, if she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and he has to run the board and hope for miracles. That's not going to work. Not going to work.

So talk to me about... Talk to me. How disconnected from strategic reality they are in this last weekend. Sure. The one resource that everybody has an equal amount of is time. And how you use that time matters in a campaign because you can't get it back. There's a finite amount. Your candidate can only be in so many places.

And the fact that there's... Oh, I didn't know that. they're squandering any of that time in places. I don't know whether they think they're doing a head fake or what on earth they think they're doing, whether it's Trump Chella in California or Madison Square Garden or going to Salem, Virginia today, or going to Albuquerque, New Mexico this week. Those are days that they can never get back. Those are critical touchdown.

Sorry, Trump. You're not going to win. You blew it. that make a difference with the enthusiasm in those areas. And I think that's why we're seeing kind of these dwindling crowds with the Trump rallies. The enthusiasm is just dropping off the charts, and they're trying to recreate that. And if I'm the Harris campaign, I'm looking at this as a gift. I'm not suddenly thinking, boy, what should we be seeing in New Mexico that we're not seeing?

On Hispanics, you know, it's going to be way under what Bush got in 04, 36% maybe, 35. But, you know, that starts getting to be a very scurly number because Hispanics are self-identifying. Trump's coalition with 85% white and 20, I think at the end of the day, it's going to be close to the same. Interesting. I think that's right. I do think. Rick, can I point out one thing that isn't going to revert back to the me, college-educated women in the suburbs. that is not going to revert back to the mean.

Truth of the matter, and college educated, quite frankly, college educated white guys in the suburbs too. And the truth of the matter is so, for example, in the Marquette pole, which is a gold standard here in Wisconsin, just came out. Harris is running about 4% higher amongst college educated white men in the state of Wisconsin than Biden did last time. That's a huge deal.

Massive. He needs a sausage vest to have. happened today of non-college educated white guys, dude showing up who are in their 20s and 30s. He's not going to have that. And they're the least reliable voters on the planet. No kidding. Joe Rogan fans. They got other things to do. Go drink beer, go to work, chase girls. Like, they got stuff going on. They're not interested in politics. I love these kids. This election is mainly going to hinge on Pennsylvania. And right now it's not looking good for Harris. I think Trump's going to win. Well, the reason why I don't think Kamala got my vote is because

I feel like everything she does is pretty phony. So if that trend continues, we're not looking at just victory. We're looking at a wipeout. How old are you? You're with a young republic because I'm 28. And to be honest, like, you're being honest now. You look at Harris's events, whether they're in Philly or in Detroit or Milwaukee in the last couple of days versus Trump. She's packing them.

And I don't get the sense, you know, to sorts of points that there's falloff in the African American community. In fact, I think there's energy. Yeah, I think that's right. And I think some of the things that we're seeing. People who are very online, you know, and very into politics. How can you be so wrong? For the most into this sort of world and things to get to.

A lot of people are just normal folks. And they didn't tune in until the last two weeks. And while they've seen as chaos and craziness and that's what they did, a lot of African-American voters who tuned in. And one of those college-educated voters who tuned in just saw the black people, saw the egregious racial, you know, horror show from Madison Square Garden. They saw who Trump's base is. They see that they're, you know, and I think this is an undercounted thing. And I talked to an African-American leader the other day who said, who's that?

One of the things that pissed people off in the African-American community last week from Madison Square Garden. And he said, he goes, you white guys, you white bros aren't getting this. He goes, they said she had pimp handlers. What? A major Trump donor and a major Trump supporter. I love the pause. Can we see that pause again? They said she had pimp handlers. A major Trump donor and a major Trump supporter stood on that floor and said she had

pimp handlers deeply, deeply insulting to African-American women, profoundly insulting. Why? And he said to me, he goes, you, you, you're not, you may, you guys may not pick this up. You goes, no harm, no foul. It's just a culture. That's kind of racist that you just said that. That line got out there. That line got out there and pissed people off.

Oh. And I think, you know, the, I didn't hear that one. The broader question, I want to move to the next. ask question that I have. Please do. One kind of party is left if the Republican Party has lost college-educated white men and a meaningful fraction of them and college-educated white women. So you start running out of humans. 60% of the country, 60% of the electorate was non-college educated white people. Wow. That's now 39%, probably less so since we've been talking. It's the fastest declining large demographic in America. So sort of like in a position of losing five books on every

sale but trying to make it up in volume. You know, we kind of can't get there. I think Donald Trump will be a candidate for president if he loses in February 25. And the party's going to have to continue to lose for a while before it does what it takes to change. And I'm not sure what that would be. The Republicans are going to be in a position where what's left of the party is older, whiter, angrier, meaner, more afraid of the future.

They're going to have some significant diversity, though. There's going to be Germans and Irish and Dutch and a whole lot of other white people. And after a decade of losing, they're going to have the same guy at the head of the party. That's going to be the reality when this election is over, as Trump will have led the Republicans to yet another defeat, defeat in the House, defeat across the nation in state houses and those I love it. I love it. And quite possibly they're about to squander

the opportunity that was just there for the Republicans to pick up the U.S. Senate. And it looks like increasingly like John Tester, maybe the new Harry Reid. God bless John Tester, man. The guy behind the guy. He's more ahead until election day. Hell of a thing.

That will be an epic, epic win if he pulls it off. Yeah. And but what you'll get is the Republicans, you know, looking, doing an autopsy like they did again back in 2012 and saying, yes, we need more MAGA. We need more Trump. It's not going to work. Not going to work. More, more, more. Because the pain hasn't taught them anything since 2018 when they've lost and lost and lost and lost. I would just add to that. You know, we've done a ton of research at the Lincoln democracy. A ton of research. On the electorate as a whole and particularly what did you find out? The right side of the electorate.

And I think it's when we look forward, if we go beyond the fact that there may be elements in the in the Trump world, they want to have civil war amongst all of us. The more likely scenarios they're going to have civil war within. A big part of what we need to do in the aftermath of this thing is we want them to all be fighting amongst themselves. Better they have a civil war with each other than try and have a civil war with all the ones. There is a fear out there. What's the fear?

And I think it's a legitimate fear. I don't know. About just where, just how bad the 76 days after the election are going to be. In this period between election and certification, what should Americans be doing and thinking about? Lock your doors. Because I think the fear of another January 6th, the fear of election day. violence, the fear of violence in order to keep Trump in the contention, the fear of the

desire to scare people between Election Day and Certification Day of January 6th. That to me is something that as a democracy, it's a, it's a, it's a shame and an embarrassment where you should be thinking about it. I was disgusting. But Jeff, what do you think we should be watching for in the 76 day window? And how should people be punching back on it? Jeff is right here. The only way to, that I think that is going to be available.

for the Trump campaign to have any Hail Mary shot at winning in the courts. It's amazing. Now they're talking about what happens after Trump loses. Great prediction, guys. The worst! The worst on the planet! And yeah, I just spat. So that's, we'll know real quickly if they're going to have any legitimate

path to stealing this election. If, if, if, say the, it would be a killing me. As if the seal was taken off a ballot box or a voting machine. Right. You know, if they were unable to, is there terror cell actions that could then feed into then the rest of the mob storming the doors? If he wins quickly and North Carolina gets called, quickly. We need to be really out of guard that Donald Trump stands up at around 10.30 tonight

and says, I'm winning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Better not do that. They're going to try and steal it from me in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee. You need to. Patriots need to go stop the count. If we see that happening, we should have sirens going off. Michael Otterkowski was the richest man in Russia. There was a lot of hope to be in America and elsewhere that Putin would take if that's the He goes. Yep. Yeah. Stuart?

Look, I think that the period between the election and the 20th, it could be the most volatile period since the Civil War. It's going to be a war. Throw in there some point, a couple of weeks, three weeks after the election, he gets sentenced. Is it 26th or something? He's going to jail. I believe it is 26th.

Yeah. So who knows what's going to happen there? So you can imagine if he's sentenced to prison time. well of course what that reaction would be like um unacceptable i think that the whole you know it's a scenario that americans would just shudder at national guard called out um i'm shuddering and it would be just a terrible time for the country yeah i don't know rick if you even saw like a dirty horror the the doj says that they're sending monitors into like 80 some cities around the country including not just the battleground states, but places in Florida.

And I saw that Ron DeSantis went out and said, Trump will declare victory regardless tonight. He's going to say he won. It doesn't matter if she's got 400 plus electoral college votes. He's going to say that he won. Which she's going to get. It really is going to come down, I think, to the state governors. But in a lot of these states where the Lincoln Project folks,

and the people on this podcast right now, folks, You should take a lot of credit for the strategy that Jeff and Trigg developed in 2020 that we were going to go after. We're with key races in these swing, 22, excuse me, key races in these swing states where we were going to make sure they didn't have a Mark Fincher as a Secretary of State in Arizona who would have, who told us he would preemptively. They're not even trying that we didn't have that we didn't have in places like Michigan and Wisconsin. who would be stuck with, he needs an ear massage. Partisan secretaries to stay on the Republican side who would be able to do the same kind of thing. That that is an investment we made in 2020 that we put a lot of resources and we want.

When I get out to talk to average people and listeners should know this. Okay. The amount of appreciation that there is for the Lincoln project amongst average rank and file people. I mean, I was with a group last night. You guys did a really good job. 12, prominent people in Green Bay who had just gotten back from knocking on doors.

Incredible. Because they're fans of the Lincoln Project. It's incredible. And it was so moving because we are the majority in this country and in the places where we've engaged. They understand that the Lincoln Project and all the people who listen to this podcast and people who engaged have made a difference. Because the thing you have to understand about those suburban, suburban guys.

And women in Wisconsin that are breaking more towards Harris than they did for Biden. We have literally had a non-stop communication with them in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona since 2020. 2020, really. And that is starting to pay dividends. You know, it's funny. I've been hearing from a lot of Republicans in the last two weeks, three weeks. But privately, they're like, well, going to cast a vote for her. Don't tell anybody.

my God, we've got to get this over with. That sense of a bad sign from Republicans who now have permission, by the end of tonight, a third of the Republican Party is going to be breathing a huge sigh of relief. Yes, and we have to precipitate a fight between that third and the MAGA third. Absolutely. Well, guys, it is- We'll take a nap on Wednesday.

We'll take a nap on Wednesday and then get about that fight. Unfortunately, Trumpism is still going to be watering around the countryside on like a zombie for a while. We're going to have to take some steps to make sure that that threat is mitigated a little bit going forward. But guys, this has been really a luxury because

normally we're like having 14 seconds. We've got to do the thing about the day. Experts. And then we all have to run again. Genius. It's been a great luxury to have a long conversation with you guys. Folks, you guys said so good. If you are listening to this on election day, subscribe. Put your your buds in and go vote.

Put your earbuds in. Bring water. A couple of protein bars. You've got to subscribe to this channel. It's super important. I can't express enough how close this race is still in some key states and key places. It's got to get done. We've got to make this happen.

Let's get to work. Go vote. And hopefully by the time you guys have listened to this on Tuesday, you'll have some very, very good news for this country. Folks, this has been the Lippon Project podcast. Geniuses. I'm joined today by Stuart Stevens. Genius.

Jeff Timmer. We will see you again. Masterminds. Oh my God. Rick Wilson. Philip German. Ben Howe. Jeff Taylor. Awesome. Awesome. That was so good. Isn't it amazing? And I'm saying this to the planet. Did you guys not learn your lesson when Trump won the first time? He should have won the second time. We all knew. that but COVID happened and they had mail-in ballots. I don't know.

I really hope. I pray and I'm not religious, but I might pray, that the same thing that happened in America happens in Canada.