Closing Bell - Amazon’s Shocking Capex Forecast; Is Bottom in for Bitcoin? 2/5/26

Episode Date: February 5, 2026

Amazon reports alongside key results from Affirm, Reddit, Roblox, and Strategy. Roth’s Rohit Kulkarni joins with instant analysis of Amazon’s quarter, investor expectations and what the results signal for Big Tech and consumer demand. Michael Farr, President and CEO of Farrcrest, assesses overall market conditions amid this slide in tech stocks. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley weighs in on a sharp downturn in crypto markets and what it means for risk appetite. Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer at JPMorgan Asset Management, discusses bond and commodity market dynamics, offering perspective on rates, inflation, and global growth. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC, the New York Junior League, bringing the bell and at the NASDAQ, clear Cori-Torah, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime, live from Studio B at the NASAC market site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli. Sox selling off today and closing near the lows of the session. The Dow down 600 points. The SB 500 losing more than a percent in the NASAC down for the fifth time in six days on pace for its worst week since last April.

Bitcoin falling 14 percent today, more than 25 percent just this week. This would be its worst in more than three years. Silver also down big, it's lost a third of its value in a week, much more in the markets coming up. But we are also waiting for some key earnings reports. Amazon, chief among them, due out any minute. Strategy and focus as its Bitcoin stockpile is now underwater. Affirm, Reddit and Roblox, among the other names our reporters are watching. But let's start with Christina Parts Nevelis on more with more on today's market sell-off.

Christina. We had big tech mostly lower today with Microsoft and Amazon among the worst performers. Amazon closing down. about 4% just ahead of earnings. You had Alphabet closing almost 1% lower after their earnings yesterday, despite accelerating growth in search and cloud. Software selling off

sharply yet again. You have the IGV down almost 5% today. You've got Open AI, more anthropic competition headlines. Crowdstrike, Data Dog, Z-Scaler, all closing at least 7% lower on the day. But semis did hold up better with help from Alphabet's blow at Kappex

guidance, Google's custom chip maker broadcom, closing, less than 1% higher right now, but still on the green. There really is a dichotomy between chips and software. It's a trend this year. The SMH is up almost 6% year-to-date, while software is IGV is down 24%. A 30-point gap, the biggest in their history

going back to 2001, guys. All right, Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelas. VIX spiked higher today, up 16% or something. Things were really feeling a little tenuous. Bit unsteady. Yeah, I mean, for weeks we've been talking about how you had all these massive volatility.

surges in precious metals, in crypto, in parts and currencies, too. And somehow stocks and bonds were managing to keep it together through this rotation. Cycical's working tech not. It broke today. And now it didn't break for good, but it definitely widened out the bans. The liquidation alongside crypto and software, no real relief there, was too much for the rest of the market. Equal weight is still doing better than the market cap weight. So it's still a broader market.

But again, a broader market is not a more kind of high momentum. or safer market. I mean, what was up today? Consumer Staples. Exactly. You're too high in today's session, in fact. Consumer Staples. It's almost a little bit of a buying panic there. And part of that is that kind of momentum strategies when they get upended.

They kind of buy the stuff that nobody wants and has been left behind. So that's what's been happening right now. I mentioned just a little while ago, 6720 in the S&B, it's about 1% down from where we close. Is the December low? And it's one of those things in traders' minds. Just keep it on the screen there because if you trip it in the first quarter, not usually that good. By the way, as you see there at the bottom of your screen, Amazon earnings are out. We are watching the stock in the after our session. At least for now,

it is down by more than 7%. We're still going through the numbers, but an immediate market reaction is a negative one to Amazon earnings. We do have them now. Kate, Rooney, has them in San Francisco. Kate, what's the latest? Hey, Melissa, so it was a miss for Amazon's quarterly earnings, $1.95 versus $1.97, which was what the street was expecting. Revenues were a beat, though, so sort of a mixed quarter on the top and bottom line. Revenue coming at 213. point four roughly billion dollars street was looking for two eleven or so we're also getting a w s revenue numbers this was stronger than expected if this is a key number that wall street looks for 24 percent growth year over year versus about 21 22 percent that the street was looking

for a ws revenue overall beat estimates 35 point six billion dollars we're also getting some online stores revenue that was stronger than expected 82.9 billion and we'll keep digging through this guys, but the big miss here is on quarterly earnings. We'll look through for some guidance, but AWS also stronger than expected. Back to you. Just to get that growth number, K, 24% year-on-year, and that is for the quarter, as opposed to the full year. Yes, so 24% year every year for the quarter. So, Street was looking for between 21 and 22%. So Stronger than expected, that's really the key number. Wall Street would say, you know, is looking for as we see more competition from cloud players in the AI story for Amazon. But we'll look at it.

Oh, actually, hold on, we have revenue guidance. I have you. This is sort of in line at the midpoint, I would say. They're looking for Q1, 173 billion, 173 to 178, Street was looking for 175. So that's sort of right in line, at least, on Q1 revenue. But we'll keep looking through it, Mel, and bring us more details. Okay, Kate, thank you.

Kate Rooney, keep us posted. Obviously, we're still looking for a CAPX number. That will be key. But there was a lot high expectations going into this, given that it was an underperformer relative to the next. ASEC 100 and its peers going into the quarter for the past year, as well as year to date. There had been high expectations for AWS. Given what Google and META said about its strong advertising market, given what Microsoft and Google said about strong cloud,

you would have put those two together and thought Amazon was poised for a strong quarter. Yes. So the miss was. They did say 22% advertising growth as well. So, I mean, things are hitting in terms of what the recent performance was. I do know that the street's eyes got a little big in terms of growth at AWS. Maybe it could have been better than even we got, which was 24%. So I think all those things are going to be in the mix in terms of the reaction.

As Kate said, revenue guidance. I mean, this is a quarter that's almost half over, and they're bracketing the consensus. So not acceleration, but shouldn't have been something to worry too much about. So we are getting a CAPEX number $200 billion in capx, which is a lot higher than what a lot of had been expecting, which is in line with what we've heard from Microsoft as well as, I mean, in terms of boosting that KAPX number. But Morgan Stanley was out just earlier this week saying they were expecting $140 billion for KAPX.

So 200 billion, I mean, that is quite an increase in terms of what it's been at the quarterly annual rate is like 150. So yeah, it's a big acceleration, which could explain what's going on. Of course, Alphabet traded like a champ today after their massive KAPX number. The stock was down barely 1% in a very weak market. So we'll see if Amazon is given the benefit of the doubt eventually on this. Yeah. Right now we're looking at Amazon shares down by 10%.

So it's another huge move for mega-cap stock. Same with what we saw with Microsoft in terms of the disappointment and just the immediate sell-off, you know, pressing hard on the stock. Clearly it's a very fragile market when it comes to the big NASDAQ name. So that was not a great setup, but you would have thought there could have been in the room for some relief here. All right. We'll keep looking through these numbers and bringing you anything that we get. Again, shares are down 9.5% on the back of earnings.

Now let's get to the broader markets. Our next guest says the current Mag 7 pullback is needed, perhaps welcome. To remove some of the speculation excess, he says fundamentals are solid or sound, but this could be the beginning of a more substantial retreat. Joining us now, Michael Farr, Chairman of Farr Crest Capital, founder of Farr, Miller, and Washington, and a CNBC contributor. Michael, it's always a pleasure to see you. Thanks, Melissa.

It's great to be here. Hi, Michael. He says hi. I know that they just crossed Amazon, but the, you know, I know that they just cross Amazon, But the reactions that we've seen from very large companies to slight earnings misses or maybe even inline quarters has been extreme. What do you make of this? What does this tell you about the markets? I think we're seeing a number of things, Melissa.

First of all, you're seeing companies pull back and still profit taking from companies that have done exceptionally well. People have had huge profits in all of these Mag 7 names as great outperformers. And I think there's been a little bit of nerves and people are really on tender hooks saying, when is it going to crack? When are they going to go down? How long can this keep up? And with some of these earnings misses and revenue misses, I think you're also seeing some bot trading, computer trading here that are taking advantage of some of this short-term volatility. Overall, the fundamentals that we're hearing about and that we heard about just earlier today continue to sound pretty good. I mean, you look at the AWS numbers growing at 24%. You look at the top line, the bottom line. This isn't these kinds of a cracking. I'm going to interrupt. I'm sorry.

We got some more numbers out of Amazon. I want to go back to Kate Rooney for those. Kate. Hey, Mel. So, CapEx is the big one investors we're looking for. 200 billion. I know you guys just mentioned that was up from a total in 2025 of $150 billion. So massive acceleration in CapEx by about $50 billion.

Stock has been taking a hit. There were some jitters around. how much Amazon was meant to spend on this, and investors were a little shy about sort of the fine line that they have to walk here. International revenue should also point out $50.7 billion. This was a beat up about 11 percent, important growth area for Amazon. Also on revenue guidance here, and operating income, guidance looks to be pretty much in line. Operating income guidance was slightly lower than what the street was looking for at the midpoint. and that could be another thing here, sort of weighing on the stock,

but I would really point to the CAPEX number as a potential drag on Amazon right now after hours. All right, Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney. We want to go to Julia Borson. She's got Reddit earnings which just crossed. Julia. Yeah, Reddit shares shooting higher

after beating on the top and bottom lines and announcing a $1 billion share repurchase program. Earnings of $1.24, topping estimates of $0.24,000, revenue of $726 million ahead of estimates of $660. million. But the company's first quarter guidance was also ahead of expectations, guiding to revenue and a range with a midpoint of $600 million. Estimates were for $577, guiding to adjusted

EBDA of $210 to $220 million for the first quarter. Now, daily active unique's $232 million, one million ahead of estimates, global average revenue per user, $5.98, well stronger than anticipated. You see, shares are up as much as double-digit percentage points now up just a couple of percentage points. I spoke to Reddit CEO Steve Huffman, who said, quote, we're seeing this macro shift towards AI and Reddit stands out as the most human place on the internet, saying I think that's why we're seeing the results we're seeing right now. He went on to say, for our AI partnerships, our conversations are shifting from a deal to a product partnership. Melissa? Julia, thank you. Julia Borsden. Let's get back to Michael Farr. So we're seeing these huge

moves in mega-cap stocks, Michael. It does sound like, though, you are skeptical about the software trade, that maybe you are a believer in this sort of swift sell-off that we've seen in the sector. I think the sell-off has sort of been expected for a while. This CAP-X is a real concern. And the CAP-X concern is there's been this real race for a land race to capture for these AI companies and a big spend to make sure that they don't get left behind, right? And Amazon coming up with a $200 billion in CAP-X,

Investors are starting to say across all of these companies, wait a minute, where's my ROI? Are we actually making reasonable investments, or are we just spending money and throwing it out there in a shotgun approach, hoping we hit enough of the right things that we're in the right place at the right time? Things are moving awfully quickly, and I think investors are right to hold companies accountable and say, where's my return? The other thing that's concerning me is that when you look at some of the new technology that's out that wasn't out, months ago, even, like Claude, like anti-gravity, where I can go, I, I can go into chat GPT and ask it to come up with the prompts for me to create a program and even an app and plug it back into Claude AI or anti-gravity and come up with apps that I've been subscribing to that I can create and rebuild myself. I think a lot of corporate America is beginning to think,

wait a minute, is the subscription model for a number of these companies beginning to crack? On the big ones, I don't think so. But for a lot of smaller companies, I think there's real competition that's being created by any number of these large language models. All right, Michael, we've got to let you go. We've got a lot of earnings out. Thank you. Good to see you.

Michael Farr. Roblox earnings, in fact, are out. Steve Kovac's got those numbers, Steve. Just screaming higher up better than 20% on these results. Since it beats on the top and bottom lines, loss per share was 45 cents. That's better than the 48 cent loss expected by the street. Revenue, 2.22 billion. Street wanted to see 2.05 billion.

That's also a beat. And daily active users, a healthy beat there as well. 144 million people using Roblox every day. That's compared to expectations of 138 million. Also notice guidance stronger than expected. We're seeing shares way up here. Video game stocks have also been kind of swept up in the software sell-off over fears of artificial intelligence and that new genie world model from Google, but they seem to be shaking

it off here now. Shares are up better than 21 percent, guys. All right, Steve, thanks. Steve Kovac. Affirm earnings are out as well. Mackenzie Segalos has those numbers. Mackenzie. Hey, Mel, so you got a firm delivering a beat on both the top and bottom line. Those shares, though, fracturally lower in the after hours down around 3 percent now. Adjusted EPS coming in at 37 cents. That's well ahead of the street estimate of 26 cents. Revenue hitting 1.12 billion versus expectations of 1.06 billion and then gross merchandise volume. That's a metric tracking total transaction value that reached 13.8 billion topping forecast. Guidance, it's solid. Fiscal Q3 revenue in the range of 970 million to a billion dollars, roughly in line with estimates.

Well, GMV guidance. That was a slight beat at the midpoint. Quick note here, this is the fifth straight quarter that a firm has beaten earnings estimates. And the results come as it signs exclusive deals with Intuit, Expedia, just expanded its partnership with Amazon up until 2031. Those shares, though, down almost 6% now. All right, Mack, thank you. It's got another check on Amazon. The stock is falling after hours following its earnings report just moments ago. It's off 7% at the moment. Joining us now is Roth Capital Partners, Rohit Kolkarni. He has a buy rating on the stock. Rohit, what have you seen in the numbers we've been talked? about the huge CAPEX plans is that what the is moving the stock yeah absolutely i think

the we knew that CAPEX is going to be a big number was going to be expected there just the question was how big given google said the high bogey at 185 billion whether amazon matches it or beats it clearly amazon has greater aspirations and greater surface area of how much they can spend in capex so that 200 billion number is kind of what's what was the slight yellow flag. Also, the second yellow flag was the second quarter guidance. It's inline guide. The street probably needed more. After the big beat on 4Q, a slight raise in the guide would have probably had a better reaction to the stop. CapEx in one queue. Sure. I don't know if you've run it through your model or anything yet, but it would seem like it'll put Amazon at free cash flow

negative for the year, this KAPX number. It would be very close. In my opinion, Amazon on an higher revenue number, slightly better profitability from what they're demonstrating right now, would probably generate $200 billion in operating cash flow this year. That's very much in line with what Google is doing. So Amazon and Google both would have $200 billion in operating cash flow, both are spending close to $200 billion. So that they would be cash flow break-even, both those companies, perhaps Amazon close to cash flow negative.

Amazon has had periods of negative cash flows in the past, given the retail and other cycles of investments that they have done. For the Amazon story specifically, Roheat, what is it about the CAP-X that would make that spend negative versus an increased CAP-X for other MAG-7 stocks? I mean, what about, is it the concern that Amazon's not going to be able to monetize this, that we won't see the results when it comes to, you know, its pledge a double capacity, for instance, or apply AI technology to its advertising. But I mean, what is the concern here that we're not going to get the money back? I think the concern here is the multi-dimensional type of CAPEX that Amazon has to deal with. Unlike probably a very straight line CAPEX that meta deals with versus Google probably a couple different line items.

Amazon is dealing with building warehouses, building data centers. now they are launching satellites and now they're launching kind of satellite telephones. So I think the categories of CAPEX and where Amazon decides to win in those CAPEX categories, that is the concern here, perhaps having a more focused CAPEX outlook. And just doubling down on one or two categories would make them clear winners, which is what we have been seeing, stock market wants to cheer companies like Google, that they are doubling down on Google Cloud, and that's what they want to win. In this case, I think the concern is how much are they going to spend on which categories?

Yeah, I mean, you're getting at the sort of inherent complexity of Amazon in terms of the overall business with like 40% still in the e-commerce side. Now, on one hand, I look at Walmart trading at 40 plus times earnings and say maybe the market would like a business like that, which is buried within Amazon with the advertising and the retail, but it seems to just not be as clean a story. what's holding the stock back? I think it's it's the most diversified multi- trillion dollar business on earth. Let's give them the credit where it's due, but that's what makes it more complex, and that's what it makes investors vary of putting a single number on that multi-dimensional

story and providing having a great conviction that, okay, Costco is trading at that, Netflix is trading in that, some other cloud companies trading at that, Amazon should trade at this. I think that's where the complexity rises and having a very clean story and having a very clean winning story is what Amazon has lacked over the last 12, 18 months. I hope we get to, after this capex cycle, I think that's when you actually buy Amazon because, yeah, that's when the cleaner story will come through. After this capex cycle, when is that? I mean, it seems like it's a never-ending story. I mean, Cap-X is expected to increase 2026 and 2027. I mean, you're talking three years from now, Roheed. Is it dead money?

Let me rephrase that during this cap and cycle before the harvesting cycle. Let's just rephrase that by saying we are not in a cycle. We are in an arms race. It's almost existential for all these companies. The way they're trying to spend, they don't want to come onto the other side underarm. They want to be completely well prepared for the next level for intelligence harvesting. And I think midway through the cycle is when we buy these winners and Amazon would be one of them. All right.

All right. Roheed, thanks. Roheed, Calcarni. Coming up, Bitcoin getting crushed today, falling to 63,000. Where will the bottom finally come in? Some are watching 50,000. Others looking at 38K. You're watching closing bell overtime, live from the NASAC market site. Welcome back to overtime. It was another brutal day for crypto investors. Bitcoin hitting its lowest level since October 2024, and it is on pace for its worst week in over three years. You see over the course of the day just kept kind of rolling downhill, very brief little intraday rallies. Here's a five-year look, gone vertical to the downside here in this last little while. Interesting, what we did break here is this level from November of 2021. It was around 64,000. November 2021 was like the risk peak before the bear market of 22, before the Fed started raising rates. It's when the NASDAQ peak. It's when the Russell 2000 peak. It's when Bitcoin peak.

So others are looking for yet lower potential support levels with this downside momentum, maybe around 50,000 or so. you know, Jeff DeGraff over at Renaissance macro saying, let it bounce before you try to bet, because it is really oversold on a technical basis and massive outflows from the ETFs, which often can be a sign that it's time to kind of be a contrary to take the other side. Let's talk a little more about this. Joining us now is Hunter Horsley. He is CEO of Bitwise asset management.

Hunter, I guess first off, is there a proximate cause that you've seen for this last round of liquidation? We hear about forced de leveraging. That's just the mechanics of it. Is there a Y connected to this move? Yeah, Mike. I mean, today, as you said, Bitcoin down double digits and Bitcoin's in a bare market. You're to date down close to 30 percent, the Bitwise 10 crypto index ETF, which captures a little more of the market a little bit higher than that.

In terms of the Y, I think right now, crypto is getting swept up with the rest of the macro. investors are selling everything that's liquid. Golds down, the cues are down, Amazon, you guys were discussing, selling off. So over the last few months, there have been some idiosyncratic developments in the crypto space with offshore trading venues having disruptions. But I think in the present moment, it's mostly trading with other liquid assets. Does it feel like right now, Hunter, the momentum is to the downside? and I'm wondering, you know, on-chain indicators, for instance, indicate that there are more people transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, and that may indicate the intent to sell, to continue selling. So these things are sort of pointing lower, and I'm wondering from your standpoint, why that thesis, that, you know, institutions are now holding Bitcoin,

that Bitcoin has a regulatory wind at its back, all these things just win away very, very quickly in this latest downturn. It's like all those things didn't even exist with this. It feels like a run-of-the-mill Bitcoin downturn that we saw even before all these positive things were in place. 100%. Melissa, I feel like we've spoken, you know, Bill Wides has been in the space for eight years, and we've spoken a number of times over the last five or six years. And I totally agree with you. It feels like old-school crypto. The reality is that there are sort of two pockets of investors in the space.

There are the crypto-native, so to speak. They own most of the assets. They were here first. They've been here longest. And then there's the institutional audience. serve a lot of those investors. And I can tell you, even just in the context of Bitwise, we manage about $15 billion for a lot of the institutional set. On Monday, we had over $100 million of inflows. Today, we saw inflows into four products. The Bitcoin ETFs are trading

300, 400 percent more volume than their 30-day average daily volume. So there's a lot of volume, and there's sellers and buyers. So I think that there's different perspectives on the market at the moment, which is one of the most interesting things. I think longtime holders are feeling unsure, and I think the new investor set, institutions, are feeling that they're sort of getting a new crack at the Apple and seeing prices that they thought they would have forever missed. So, you know, I was having a conversation with a wealth management firm, a billion dollar firm earlier today, and they said, you know, we have clients who want to put money to work, where do you think is the right price to buy? Will this thing keep going forward?

further. And I think that's a mindset that's present with a lot of a lot of the institutional set. I mean, you mentioned Hunter that it's selling off with other liquid assets, but Bitcoin's selling off after having badly lagged things like the NASDAQ and gold for a long period of time. So it's kind of got the downside but didn't participate in the last run since October. And I just wonder if you think big picture, because it's in ETFs, because institutions can buy it now, it has just lost some of its edge. It's no longer the next thing. It's no longer the next thing. libertarian money. It's Normie money. And I just feel as if you wanted something that's kind of the next frontier, it's AI, it's other things along those lines. And meanwhile, all the Bitcoin miners

are selling their power for data centers, for AI. Yeah, yeah, that's a great perspective. I think that the last 12 months in the last year, and me commentsed a lot on it was a moment of transition and sort of a growing up or graduation for the space. Long time holders, some of them taking money off the table when Bitcoin crossed 100,000, it's estimated around 150 billion was sold. And then on the flip side, new constituents who feel it's finally an adjustable asset class buying, and we see that across our client base. There's a bank that manages over a trillion in assets that just approved access to our Bitcoin ETF last week. So I think what we see across our client base is just a moment of transition.

And I think the tailwinds are an incredible setup for this asset class. It is at the end of the day, still a very small asset class. Most investors don't have exposure. I think it's on the right side of digital. It's on the right side of generational wealth transfer. I think it will wind up being on the right side of AI. And it may that may peak its head this year as well.

So I think the setup is very strong and it's chopping through this transition. All right, absolutely. We'll see if it if it's going to be here, the last, people are getting a chance, I guess. Hunter, thank you very much, Hunter Horsley. It is, you have to wonder to whether or not some of the people who traded Bitcoin are now in the predictions markets and trading other things. I mean, seeing this wash, like, why not just get out and go somewhere else? For sure. The new thing. I always just do the thought

experiment. I mean, it's been around 15 years. Right. If you're in your early 20s and you're into trading and risk and making money, it's not a new thing. It's just kind of the thing that your older siblings have been in for a long time. Your parents are doing it at this point. Maybe even your parents, exactly. Carter Worth sent out this chart. This just to put things in perspective. Taking a look at the average drawdowns, the mean drawdowns, 2010 to 2026.

So the mean drawdown has been 58%. So far in 2026, we're at 48%. Yeah. So according to that, we could be in for some more downside there. But we're down more from the highs. Is that right? Oh, it's from the October highs. Yeah.

Got it. Okay. Yeah, that would be another little gut punch, but maybe not that far. All right, coming up, much more and another key factor contributing to today's selloff. That would be somewhat weaker jobs data. And those stocks were broadly lower today. We did see nearly nine times as many S&P 500 stocks making new highs compared to new lows. Two big groups, health care, including Johnson and Johnson and Amgen, both in the Dow,

and insurance led by Dow component travelers. All these names we're showing right now hit all-time highs. over the course of the day, although 500 NASDAQ stocks hit new lows today. Over time, we'll be right back. Welcome back to Big After Hours report. We are watching Amazon. Those shares are down by 8% right now. We're also seeing big moves in a couple of software names.

Simi Modi has that for us, Sima. A software name moving to the upside. Here is Fortinet, the cybersecurity software company reporting much better than expected earnings of 81 cents versus the estimate of 74. Revenue coming in better than expected. And what investors were really focused on was margins going forward. they expect adjusted operating margins of 37% versus the 35% estimate. We're looking at shares up about 9%.

The company also expanding its share repurchase plan, which we've been talking about, companies that are going to take advantage of this drop in their share prices by a billion dollars. Shares are up 9%. Let's talk about Atlassian. That's more of a work management tool in the software space. Earnings, again, topping estimates,

$1.22 versus $1.14, revenue, a strong beat. It does see its full-year gross margins coming in, line with the expectations, which I think just given all the noise around software and concerns around the challenges these companies face, I think they were hoping for a bit better than expected versus in line. The CFO, Joe Binns, though, saying that they delivered a strong quarter enterprise sales and partner execution is working. The stock down another 7%. It did close at a 52-week low in today's trade guys. Seema, thank you. Well, the job market continues to send mixed messages. A key ratio from today's Joltz report shows workers aren't quitting as actively.

as they had been, but they're also not getting fired either. This is the ratio of those quitting at an annualized rate against those that are being laid off. And you see the pandemic level where basically labor had all the power and everyone was quitting for a better job. It's obviously receded from there. We're not too far below the pre-pandemic levels, but again, Melissa, I sort of suggest we are stuck in this low hire, no fire. As much as there's been a lot of announced layoffs, it's not really washing through to actually. executed layoffs that are moving the needle so far, we'll see when we get next week's official jobs.

But being stuck with inflation that seems to be coming down is a good recipe for the Fed. It is a good recipe for the Fed. You have a quarter of a million boomers retiring every month. It's actually this big undertow to total job growth. So I do think those definitely are disinflationary, if nothing else. All right. Time now for our CNBC News update with Leslie Picker. Leslie. Hey, Mel, Democratic Senator Alyssa Sotkin said today, she rejected a Justice Department invitation to sit down for an inquiry into a video she posted last year calling on military members to resist illegal orders. Senator Slotkin was one of six lawmakers who participated in the 90-second video. She says she also requested the DOJ retain all documents related to the matter

in case she decides to pursue litigation. President Trump rejected an offer today to extend for one year a nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia. He said on social media that experts should work on a new improved and modernized version of the treaty known as New Start. It was the last remaining nuclear arms packed between Washington and Moscow. And NASA astronauts can now bring smartphones into space. The head of the space agency, Jared Isaacman, says crews will be able to capture special moments for their families and share images and video with the world. The change will start with next week's crew 12 mission to the International Space Station

and the delayed Artemis 2 lunar fly by in March. That just sounds so cool. Looking forward to all that content. Play games. You could trade possibly. Did you have to pay for the in-flight Wi-Fi? That's the question. Exactly.

$21 an hour. Leslie Picker. Leslie Picker. Coming out much more today's sell-off that went beyond stocks. Look at silver down 12% losing a third of its value in just a week. Closing bell overtime is coming right back. Welcome back to closing bail overtime, live from the NASAC market site. Stock selling off across the board, the SNB 500 giving up all its gains for the year.

The NASAC lower by 1.5% today, 5% in a week. The software slump continues and ensnaring some of the data service providers, including Thompson Reuters and Faxette Research. Consumer name is also getting hit hard. S.A. Lauder, down 20% following its earnings. All right, well, turning to treasuries, we mentioned the weaker labor market data earlier. That push yields lower across the board. But our next guest says the economy remains on track for another year of economic expansion, and that is creating opportunities in the bond market.

Joining us now here is Bob Michael. He's chief investment officer and head of the Global Fixed Income Currency and Commodities Group at JPMorgan Ascent Management. Bob, good to see it. Good to be here. So you think it's still kind of a Goldilocks setup here? So you have moderate growth and disinflation and nothing to worry about in bonds? Well, today was certainly a good day to be a bond. Yes. You're right. It was certainly the labor market data. It was also some of the angst in the equity market.

That pushed people to bond, so it's nice to have yield again and receive some of that. And you also have to look at sort of the doveish decisions that came out of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. All of those things push yields a lot lower. For us, when we look at the bond market, we see the economy running about trend this year. we see inflation a little bit higher than two and a half percent, nothing that's going to get the Fed wary, and maybe the Fed will be on hold for a while. The bond market seems to have perfectly priced all of that in. Well, yeah, because it's really not moving a whole lot. It's been in that range for a while in terms of treasury yields.

You say maybe growing a little above trend, it seems like the equity market has been geared for kind of a run-at-hot situation, right? You've got all this fiscal push behind the growth in the first half, and all the sectors of the stock market that would do well in that scenario have been leading. So do you think that that's kind of overplaying the cyclical story? Maybe a little bit. When we talk to the companies that we're lending to, we're hearing that they're very cautious about pushing price increases through. They're starting to sense that consumers push back and they would see sales fall.

So when we look at inflation, which is the biggest component of bond yields, and we get to mid-year, we see the base effects of tariffs starting to roll off and companies being more thoughtful about any price increases going forward. You see the yield in the 10-year going to 3.75 to 4 and a quarter this year, Bob. And I'm wondering what the pathway is to below 4%, especially when you have banks around the world raising rates and you have that sort of just upward pull there. Well, it will be a couple things.

One, if we're right that inflation cools off, then that gives Fed scope to move its target rate down to 3%, which they're telling us is neutral. You'll probably need some help from the Treasury. If the administration is genuinely interested about bringing mortgage rates down and unlocking the housing market, one way to do that is to bring the tenure down. You can easily do that by cutting the amount of supply in 10-and-30-year treasuries. It's not a radical process. They're already doing that in England, and they're doing that in Japan.

So their debt management offices are active. That's baked into this forecast. That Treasury lends a hand. Some of it, absolutely. What do you make of the discussion around Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, the shrinking of the balance sheet? I've even heard people try and point to some of the moves like in gold, silver, crypto, as if anticipating a tightening of financial conditions because the balance sheet is not. going to be as large or something like that. Are we looking for practical impact there or is it

just in people's heads? From our perspective, he was a surprisingly good choice because you're bringing somebody in that has experience at the Fed. He's got a history of, I wouldn't say it's being on the hawkish side, but pushing back against balance sheet growth. We think that's a good thing. The balance sheet should be used for extreme situations. So think about it. about the great financial crisis, think about COVID. It shouldn't be a permanent policy tool. And he's the guy that can get in there and normalize it. Will he do it right away? Will he get in there and start selling down the Treasury and Mortgage portfolio? Probably not. Will he advocate letting it run off, probably? Well, the game plan would have to be radically changed bank regulation,

allow them to have more capacity to own treasuries on balance sheet, right? And then you can so-called privatize the Fed balance. It's a few steps in that. Well, you got the right administration in there. They made sure. All right, Bob, great to see you. Happy to be here. Up next, much more on Amazon's post-earning sell-off and that massive Kappex number as we count down to the call with analysts. Stay tuned. Amazon's call begins in just a few moments. Let's get back to Kay Rooney for more. The results, Kate. Hi, Mel. So this marks the first quarterly earnings miss for Amazon since October 2020. did beat expectations, but the stock dropped as much as 10% as investors are now digesting,

what appears to be a huge uptick in spending Amazon, now looking to spend $200 billion in CAPEX. This year, it was up from $150 billion. Last year, CEO Andy Jassy, saying in the press release, quote, with such strong demand for our existing offerings and seminal opportunities like AI, chips, robotics, and low Earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026 and anticipate what he calls strong long-term return on invested capital. Operating income forecast for Amazon for Q1 at least was also slightly light. And then advertising online stores, AWS growth were strong spots that helped drive the revenue be now. All right. Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney. Let's dig into the huge CAPX forecasts from this week,

as well as tonight. Joining us on the phone, Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Managing Partner. Gene, great to have you with us. I want to pick up where Kate left off with that statement. from Andy Jassy about CAPX and how that CAPEX will be deployed. Is there some fear that the 200 billion, it's not a pure let's seize the moment in AI. It's let's also spend on

robotics and you know orbital satellites and all sorts of other things. Well Google last night talked about half of their CAPEX going specifically to Azure and a lot of it going to compute for other training that they're doing. But I think

in general you should look at about 80 percent of this CAP-X is going to be somehow AI-related, whether it's robotics. And, of course, they have their regular way of business when it comes to CAP-X and doing some things on the outer edge, I guess, literally in space. But to answer your question, it's probably 80 percent, still a really big number. And speaks to, I think, what is the conviction that these companies have in terms of where AI is going. And, Gene, if that's the case, let's say they're right.

it actually helps you understand perhaps why the market has been so hostile to software. Because if we're going to be spending, you know, $600 billion in five companies or whatever it's going to be this year on CAPEX, because they see so much demand, that has to displace some massive revenue and profit pools somewhere in the world. I mean, and they're assuming it's going to be a lot of software. I think it's a good assumption. And I want to go back to the, you know, software to be impacted by this. I want to go back to the concept of like what kind of weight should investors put into these huge KAPX numbers. And specifically is that they are coming from a select few number of companies.

And there's a central question that's all plays into the software question, too, a basic question to ask, which is, are the companies that are amping up these investments? Are they competent? Do they have a good view of where the world is going? And if you ultimately say they don't, then the reaction is perfectly fine that these stocks, Google last night, Amazon tonight, trading off on these big Kappex numbers. But if you think that they have a unique view, which I believe they do and do have competence in terms of how to get an ROI on AI.

We've seen big R.R.I. from Amazon, from Google and META more recently on it. But if you believe that they are, in fact, competent, that only take away you can have here is that we're still at the very beginning of the transformation around AI, that the amount of CAPEX, it's not going to end in 2026, it's going to continue, the growth rates might slow a little bit, but it will continue to be huge numbers in 27, and we're still early. And why that should resonate, not only for the infrastructure people, but also across in the software, is it speaks to the level of disruption that ultimately will come. And I think that's the central point that I'm not getting the joke, because I still think this

is really good with the CAP-X numbers, the brain of AI is getting bigger. I think that's going to yield more AI utility and more AI disruption. It's not going to end with software. It's going to, it will play over to everything and unemployment, and there's just so many rifts to it. But I still believe that this is a sign that simple takeaway from Google and Amazon, their CAP-X numbers, is worth still early. But in terms of the companies that have raised CAP-X, Gene, we have seen some fare better in reaction, and others fare worse. And so I'm wondering, from your standpoint, which ones look

the most attractive? I mean, when it comes to a combination of valuation and also the belief that those particular management teams are the best stewards of these hundreds of billions of dollars in CAPEX. I think Google's at the top. I think it's going to the top of forming MagS7 stock.

Microsoft's smallest increase in CAPX, and that's how I'd put the rank them. All right. Gene, great to see you. Thank you. Munster. Thank you. The Amazon earnings call kicking off in just under 10 minutes time right now. Up next, we'll get you set up for tomorrow's big events. Take a look at two names down more than 30% after hours. Back right after this. A few stocks making huge moves following results. Melina Health down 30% a loss of $2.75 a share, but we're not comparing it to analyst assessments due to a one-time item.

Revenue did beat for the fourth quarter, but guidance for next year is about $2 billion short of the consensus. We're also watching health care software company, Doximity, also. down more than 30% beating by a penny on earnings, a few million on revenue. But the guidance is what's hurting the stock. Fourth quarter revenue seen below estimates. Earnings projected to come up short as well. And take a look at Cody. That one is really taking on the chin down 15%.

earnings of 14 cents a share compared to the estimate, a narrow beat on revenue. Cody is withdrawing prior full year guidance, only providing guidance for the next year. So that's your... Yeah, vaguely in the same area as Estee Lauder, which is down 19% today. So clearly... Despite strong...

staples. It's not working in the cosmetics area. Let's get your set up for tomorrow's trade today. The week closes out with a few big earnings. AutoNation, Biogen, Centine, Under Armour, and Newell brands. All report before the bell. Keep in mind, Bitcoin trains around the clock. So we'll see if Asia buys it, if it spills further, because that's probably going to at least dictate the open tomorrow, if not the whole day. Yeah, 60K. We'll see if that holds. Yeah. That should be interesting. Big round number came suddenly. All right, that does it for overtime.

Curling begins right after this quick break.