Closing Bell - Bitcoin Slides and Investors Watch the Next Big IPO 6/3/26

Episode Date: June 3, 2026

Markets digest a fresh round of earnings, falling crypto prices and growing anticipation around SpaceX. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, breaks down the market's latest theme and explains what investors should focus on as stocks continue to climb. The show also examines Bitcoin's ongoing decline and why some analysts expect additional downside before sentiment stabilizes. Broadcom headlines earnings. Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein reacts and explains what they mean for AI infrastructure, semiconductors and tech spending. Andrzej Skiba, Head of Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management, explains what shifting yields mean for investors and the economy. Plus, new developments surrounding a potential SpaceX filing and what it could mean for public markets. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing in into the training day at the NYSC Corps in Maine, ringing the bell. And at the NASAC, it's Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Welcome to closing bell overtime. We're live from studio be at the NASAC market site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli. Sox lower across the board. The Dow down about 580 points, more than a percent loss there. The SB 500 down by 7 tenths of a percent or 55 points.

And the NASAC composite down by 9 tenths or percent breaking nine session winning streaks. And as a momentum trade takes a breather, the rustle actually losing the most, down 1.3 percent. While the NASDAQ fell, chip stocks gained the SMH ETF up 1% on the day. A big test for chip stocks in just a few minutes when Broadcom reports results. This is a biggie, $2.2 trillion in market cap. That's bigger than Tesla or META. But that's not the only name we are watching. Crowdstrike up 65% in a month.

Five below also reporting lots of focus on the consumer, particularly in the lower income range. But as for the markets today, Mike, you know, semiconductors, new high in the socks. was challenged. And Nvidia down appreciably. So you have still this dynamic where sort of non-invideo chips seem to be pacing the advance. We've known this for a while, right?

One of the most historic two-month surges in semi-stocks just finished. Going back to 2000, the NASDAQ 100 as, you know, an index is kind of profoundly overstretched relative to a trend. So you kind of know you have the makings for some kind of backing off.

It's happening so far in a very benign way, at least for now, S&P 500 got above 7,500, like three weeks ago, and you're just a few points above where it was then. So maybe this is kind of the easy way to get out of it, which is just by hanging around. And where do we see little glimmers of strength today? Health care and energy, so sort of the beaten down areas of the market. So maybe it's a little bit of a broadening aspect to what's going on today as well. At least for a day.

Of course, yields up, oil up. Got to be on alert that they don't break containment. But so far, not quite. Let's head to Christina Parks Nevelas for a look at today's biggest market movers. Christina. Well, like you guys mentioned, it was a rare down day for the market today. The S&P 500 pulled back, but it still is potentially on track for potential 10 straight weekly gains. A streak we haven't seen since 1985.

Higher oil prices, rising bond yields, took some air out of the high-flying tech trade. InVIDIA, falling more than 3 percent. Oracle, 6 percent down. IBM, 7 percent. But keep in mind, IBM was down after hitting a record high just a day earlier. I'd be on the wait on the doubt, but Walmart actually helped cushion some of the blow after BTIG reiterated its bullish call and a $145 price target. You can see shares are at 116 right now.

But you guys mentioned it, the chip trade still showed some strength. The SOX ETF hit another record high, led by names like Marvell, Western Digital, Sandisk, and Intel even thrown into the mix, too, really showing a reversal today. Healthcare was a bright spot like Melissa just mentioned, with Moderna and Medtronic moving higher, Metronic got a boost from strong sales and its cardiovascular unit, so that really helped there. And then there were some pressure on the alternative asset managers today after reports that Partners Group capped withdrawals from one of its big private equity funds. And that left names like KKR, Blackstone, Blue Oil, Carlisle, just under pressure.

All lower Carlisle, closing 5% down. Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nebula. Oil moving higher today as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells CNBC that Israel and the U.S. are ready to strike Iran again, if necessary. Pippa Stevens has more on this. Pippa. Hey, Melissa, oil adding 2%, with Brent approaching $100 again amid an escalation, as Kuwait activated its air defenses in response to what it called hostile missile and drone threats, including a deadly attack on the country's airport.

Meantime, the New York Post asking President Trump if the blockade will still be in place by Labor Day, to which he said, quote, I don't know, I think it could be. Now, he then said that he thinks that is unlikely, but it's still unethical. a much longer time frame than has previously been indicated. And we did get fresh inventory data today showing that U.S. stockpiles continue to draw at a record rate, down another 8 million barrels as exports continue to hover around all-time highs. analysts say those barrels coming out of storage are helping to keep a lid on global oil prices. A couple of other factors contributing to the bearer side.

China staying on the sidelines with imports dropping to about 6.5 million barrels per day. her moves bypass capacity out of Yanbu and Fujaira, signs that some vessels are getting through by turning off their transponders, as well as evidence of demand destruction, including in Southeast Asia. Mike? Pippa, we keep, I don't know, pushing off the day of reckoning here to some degree and just exactly how low inventories can go. You mentioned a lot of factors there, which seem as if there's a ton of scrambling and adaptation happening across the globe. So is that buying us more time? It does seem to be buying us more time, but what's interesting to note here is that it's not necessarily demand destruction because of demand of the demand side itself, but rather demand destruction because the supplies are not available.

And so whether that points to kind of the long-term outlook still being one of demand growth, maybe some modulated demand growth, but still demand growth, to that extent, these barrels are going to have to be replaced. And China really is a key factor here because their exports have been almost, sorry, their imports, I should say, have been almost cut. in half. And prior to the war, they had built up their stockpiles to about 1.3 billion barrels. It's not exactly clear how much of that has now been drawn down. They do not publish that data or make it widely available. But you have to imagine some of that is being drawn down. Now, their refinery utilization has also declined, maybe some switching to EVs, more work from home, things like that. But their petrochemical output has also declined, and that's going to have implications for the global market, given that that's a feedstock into so many of the

products we use every single day. So it is interesting because this kind of day of reckoning that analysts said was coming. First, they said it's going to happen in May, then June, then July. It does seem to get pushed out a little bit. But there are, you know, there's a growing voice in the market that says that day of reckoning is coming and that the inventory drawdown, especially is a temporary buffer that's not there for eternity. And once that expires, and then also when you look at the need to refill those inventories, that could mean higher for longer oil prices. Yeah, especially if we keep throwing around Labor Day as a date for the reopening. We'll see, Pippa. Thank you. Markets are still hanging around record highs as earnings have surged,

and investors have largely adapted to the Iran conflict. So where does that leave the risk-reward balance from here? With us now is Lizanne Saunders, Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist. Lizanne, great to have you. Just let's start right there. I mean, how do things seem to you at this point? as, you know, this market has obviously been riding the AI theme, which is also where all the earnings upside has been. The rest of the market is a little more indifferent. Well, I think that's tied to some of the divergences within the economy, anything AI-related, non-A-I-related that relates to the earnings picture, which earnings have been incredibly strong.

And there is some breadth associated with it. But a big chunk of the earnings surge for consensus 2026 numbers is driven by the AI infrastructure story, and you've seen that in the market. I think a day like today references back to the inverse correlation between bond yields and oil prices. Some days, it doesn't matter as much. Today is one of those days that it does, and we're seeing a bit of a rotation. Lizanne, does your view of the markets, is your view of treasury yields? Does that change if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through Labor Day? Yeah, I think the inflation impulse, the expectations around Fed policy would change. I think.

you probably get a little bit more volatility in bond yields. And assuming something doesn't kick in to reverse that inverse correlation, I think any increased volatility in the bond market would probably quickly translate into more volatility in the equity market, too. This becomes a bigger problem, a more entrenched problem, the longer the straight stays closed, which, of course, is not just an energy story, but there's a lot of other things that go through the straight, including fertilizer and a lot of the inputs to things like semiconductors. And yet, you know, we did get, I guess, a pretty decent ADP private sector jobs report this morning. There's been a little bit of an upswing, perhaps, in some of the domestic indicators of labor demand and ISMs and things like that.

Does it mean that we're somewhat insulated at this point? And can the markets benefit from that, or is that just a little bit of false hope? Well, we may have some large company insulation associated with this. In fact, Mike, I'm glad you mentioned the ISM PMIs. So we had the ISM services out today, which was better than I. expected, and that continues a bit of a trend and somewhat comfortably above that 50 demarcation point. But S&P Global's version actually ticked down and is just slightly above 50. I think there's an important reason why there is a spread between those two. Number one, ISM only surveys member

companies. They survey about 3 to 400 companies. They tend to be much larger domestic companies. S&P Global, as the name suggests, they survey global companies. They cover about 40 countries. And that also brings them down the size spectrum a little bit. So there are times where you see a divergence, and in many cases, not all cases, a move like that, a divergence like that, the tell may be coming from S&P Global's version because it's got a wider scope and capture some of that small business sentiment more than ISM does. Yeah, it's a good note. Luzan, hang with us for just a second. We want to get to CrowdStrike earning.

Simum Modi has those for. These are first quarter numbers for CrowdStrike, Mike, which came in three cents higher than consensus a $1.10 versus the $1.7 estimate. Revenue 2, beating consensus at $1.39 billion. Estimate was for 1.36. Annual recurring revenue for the first quarter did grow by 24% year over year. It's a slight beat at $5.51 billion. Guidance is in line, although I would point out the company is raising its full year annual recurring revenue growth guidance, a suggestion that it continues to see an acceleration in growth, but we're watching shares hair down by 9%. I wonder if it's because the company is keeping their Q2 guidance roughly in line with estimates.

I would also point out, Cross Strike is announcing a four-for-one stock split. Comments here from CEO George Kurtz about the opportunity at hand in cybersecurity. He says in the first quarter, the world of cybersecurity and frontier AI collided. This was a mythos moment. We'll wait for the call to start as we watch shares fall lower here, guys. Seema, the only fill of your guidance we have is for ARR, which they expect to be above consensus. Is that right? Yeah, they're raising the fullier annual recurring growth guidance,

which is above the previous estimate. And then when it comes to the second quarter EPS guidance, the estimate was for $1.16 adjusted. What they're giving us is a range of $1.16 to $1.17. Okay. Seema, keep us posted. Thank you, Sima Modi. Lizanne, I want to ask you about some of the big moves

that we've been seeing in earnings season. Mike and I sort of marvel at this almost every night when something crosses like an HPE and we see the stock move 30% in one clip. But what's your take? What does that say about where we are in the markets right now to see such outsized reactions to earnings reports, to news? I think it highlights the short time horizon associated with many of the key players in the market. There's on the more institutional side that play off positioning of other cohorts, everything from, you know, systematics to long-short

hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, and then you bring retail traders into the mix. And I think it can exaggerate moves both on the upside and downside. There is a bit of a gambling mentality in the market. It looks very casino-like at times. And I think the message for more traditional individual investors is not try to time all or nothing entry and exit points, either at the market level or at the individual stock level, but really be mindful of not letting yourself sort of fall into the hype associated with some of these moves and really adopt those rebalancing strategies that kind of harken back to the old adage about taking profits. No one ever broke taking profits.

And I think that's just what longer-term individual investors need to be mindful of is that some of these parabolic moves can turn on a dime. Lizanne, great to see you. Thank you. Good to see you, too. Thanks. Lizanne Sanders. Awesome. Some hawkish comments crossing from Dallas Fed President Lori Logan. She'll tell a group in El Paso that higher interest rates could be needed later this year

because inflation is taking too long to return to the Fed's 2 percent target. And while the economy has weathered the oil shock so far, she says it's weighing on lower-income households. Logan, who dissented at the last Fed meeting, calling to remove the easing bias in the Fed statement, says monetary policy is not restraining the economy and financial conditions are accommodative. Her comments are in contrast to her counterpart from New York, though. John Williams said today monetary policy is exactly in the right place and that there's no obvious reason to change rates right now. All right, we're seeing a big move in five below shares down seven and a half percent. earnings just out.

22 to a share, much better than the $1.76 that was expected. Revenue also ahead of estimates. Second quarter earnings and revenue also seen above estimates, even at the low end of the ranges. Despite that, the stock is lower, as you mentioned, almost 8 percent here in the after-hour recession. Well, Bitcoin slide. That is continuing today, around 65,000, the lowest level since February. It is now down nearly 50 percent from the all-time high hit back in October. Oppenheimer now saying it costs about $87,000 to mine a Bitcoin, not worth it, of course, at these prices.

In Compass Point Research, writing today that they expect Bitcoin to remain in free fall until funding rates flip negative. Robin Hood and Coinbase both down 5% today. Strategy is now down 18% this week. And of course we flagged we were talking about strategy sale and how symbolic it was. But there's also perpetual futures contracts now for Bitcoin. and that's really competing against the actual underlying. Sure. It definitely seems to be. I mean, the action starts to take the look of a little bit of a surrender. Now, when the cost of production is that much higher than the actual market price, in theory, that should curtail supply, right? People are just going to stop mining it. And the price, in theory, should converge back with the cost of marginal production.

But I think they release Bitcoin on that schedule no matter what. I mean, in other words, there's going to be enough miners to get the new ones out there. So it's not like, oh, let's close the gold mine because gold is too cheap. So it is an interesting dynamic. I think it's much more, too, that, you know, it lost the momentum. It kind of lost the buzz among its, you know, kind of small trader cohort. Some of the longer time holders have actually been sellers who owned it at higher prices. So it does, you know, maybe that means its capitulation, but I think it's just not where the action is.

It feels like it's lost the narrative as well. I mean, at one point, Bitcoin represented, you know, this sort of revolutionizing of transactions. By the way, we're showing Chicago, the CBO, the closing bell there, marking the end of the regular trading session for options. But in terms of all this innovation, it's not tied to the price of Bitcoin at all at this point. And if you want innovation, go look at the AI trade. We're talking about huge swings for the likes of an HPE or a micron or any of these names in that trade.

So if you want that sort of volatility on the back of innovation, Bitcoin's not in December. It's 16 years old. It's all it's ever really going to be. It's all it was designed to be. And now maybe that's, you know, kind of enough at this price. We're going to get the Bitcoin haters coming out for us. But, you know, that's the way. That's the way. That's the way, the exclusive interview that we've got with CME Group, chairman and CEO, Terry Duffy on Fast Money. He's sounding the alarm on dangers to retail investors and more. Of course, we'll ask them about perpetual futures contracts as well. That starts 5 p.m. Eastern time. earnings from Chipchine Broadcom just out. We're going to get instant reaction to the numbers after a quick break.

You're watching Closing Bell overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. Broadcom earnings are out. Christina is here with the numbers. Christina. Yeah, it's somewhat of a mixed report. So starting with earnings per share adjusted at $2.44. That is a beat. Revenue came in slightly light at $22.19 billion for the actual quarter.

So what happened is that they're split into two semiconductor revenue and infrastructure revenue. infrastructure revenue is composed of enterprise software, primarily VMware would be in that mix. That came in a little light. There was a miss there. So on the enterprise software side, semiconductor revenue came in ahead of estimates. And then for the Q3 revenue guide, it was only slightly higher than what the street anticipated at $29.4 billion. So that could be why we're seeing shares down over 5.5% guys. All right, Christina, thank you.

Christina Partsenevelas. Joining us now, Stacey Razgen, Bernstein, Senior Equity Analyst, This has got an overweight rating, $525 price target. Stacey, great to have you. Your take on the numbers. Yeah, no, so the reason it's down, I don't think it's the quarter, which was fine. It was like in line and maybe margins a little better. And the guidance, the revenue guide overall is a little above the street.

They guided 294th Street was at 286. It's the AI guidance. So they're guiding $16 billion in, in for Q3, for AI semiconductor revenues, which is a market increase over Q2. they did about 10.8 billion in Q2. But the street was, you know, 17, maybe a little more. And my guess his by-side expectations were a little higher than that. So that's why the stock is down.

The thing is, it was always going to be lumpy. They are selling, you know, the source of the big lift in the second half is probably anthropic. They're moving from originally, they were going to be selling entire racks to anthropic. They are now, which had low margin. They're now just selling chips, which have high. margin but lower revenue. So it was always going to be a little bit lumpier. What we'll be

listening for on the call is their comments on 2027. So last quarter they'd suggested that 27 AI revenues would be $100 billion. I think most people think that it's quite likely there will be upside to that. And I'm very curious to see if they take that number up, potentially materially, but we'll see what they have to say. That'll probably determine what stock does tomorrow. Yeah, I was going to say, do you have a sense, Stacey, of where that bogey is right now in terms of AI revenue for next year? Yeah. So last quarter, they said they'll be shipping, you know,

roughly 10 gigawatts of capacity and $100 billion-issue revenue, which would be out $10 billion a gigawatt, which is low. I think most people think they are closer to $15 billion a gigawatts. It would put it probably closer to 150. And I don't know that they're ready to, you know,

go out that far at this point, given it's only June. But I do think that there's expectation that there should be upside, at least of the $100 billion number that they gave. Say, Sam, curious, within your coverage universe, where does Broadcom stack up?

We like Broadcom. You know, it's the compute names, like the Broadcoms and the invidians of the world of action. They're up decently year to date, but I think Broadcoms up. I can't remember 30 or 35 percent year to date. But the overall Sox index, the semi-market is up 90, maybe even more. And a lot of the compute names, you know, have sort of lagged as investors have preferred to play the bottlenecks and the constraints instead.

At the same time, like, you know, none of the bottlenecks work ultimately if the compute names don't. And the broadcoms, well, they're actually not expensive on like a realistic kind of number. And especially given all of the other supportive data points we've seen, especially around like the broadcom TPU ecosystem, we like it. We like the stock. Does it require the bottleneck trades, the memory momentum and all that to break? Do you think for investors to spill back the other direction? Because obviously, in video, you know, as you say, It's underperformed in a raging bull market. It's done okay on its own, an absolute level.

Yeah, I mean, you know, people tend to always go back and forth between, like, favored themes. But at the end of the day, like, the bottlenecks don't work unless the compute names do. I mean, the bottlenecks are working because they're building all this great AI stuff, and it's like, okay, for who? Right. So, also, there's a divergence that I think is increasing. Like, one of them is wrong, ultimately.

Like, so that divergence, I think, is increasingly unsustainable over time. And so we've liked to give me, don't get me wrong. I like some of the bottlenecks, too, that we cover. But we like the compute names as well. Well, then who is wrong? I mean, you're saying one of them's going to be wrong, but you like both of them. At some point, I think they have to work. If the demand stays on the trajectory that it looks like it is on, I think they have to work at some.

And it's not like they haven't worked, like, to be clear. Like, they're up very nicely like year-to-date. It's just lots of other things are up a lot more. That's all. All right. Stacey. Thank you. Yeah, Yvette.

Stacey Roscoe. All right. Well, we are T-minus nine days until the SpaceX IPO. We know the company is planning to raise $75 billion, but that's just the first of several big IPOs that markets are waiting for. So can the markets absorb it all? That's coming up on overtime. Welcome back to closing bell overtime. Take a look at shares of Cerebris, closing lower by more than 9%.

Remember, this was the biggest IPO year to date when it debuted in May, pricing at 185. Now trading around 215. No clear catalysts for the move today. but the stock is now down 19% in a week. Cerebrus was just one of the 17 total IPOs in May that raised more than $15 billion. And actually, it's part of this rising level of equity offering that you're taking a look at. Not to mention alphabet, $85 billion in supply as well. So this tracks the rate of change in equity offerings, the volume of offerings relative to its previous trend.

So essentially it's showing acceleration or deceleration in equity supply. It just did go above this level, which sort of says that you're pressuring the demand for these new offerings right here. Now, it's nothing like we saw in 2021. That's when we had all the SPACs and a lot of the early stage venture companies coming out. What I find interesting is the peak in 2000 was not that dramatic because there were a ton of offerings, but they were consistently high level and very small in absolute size. So I do think it's worth keeping in mind that, yes, it's going to tax appetites for new paper as we get it. but it seems manageable in the short term.

And it does correspond to some degree with times when the market backs off when there has been heavy supply. Oh, so when you see these sort of crescendoes here, that's where the markets are challenged. And these are times where it seems like the market was kind of recapitalizing to some degree back then after recessions and things like that. Absolutely in the early 90s especially as well. All right. Time now for CNBC News Update with Angelica Peebles. Angelica. Hey, Melissa.

A new report says social security checks could be cut by five. $500 a month in 2032. The committee for a responsible federal budget projects that the Social Security Retirement Trust Fund could become insolvent by the end of that year. That would amount to a 24% cut in the typical benefit payment. And people are pulling their homes off the market at the fastest pace since April 2020 right after the pandemic hit. And it's happening right in the middle of the peak spring selling season. According to real estate and brokerage firm Redfin, nearly 6% of all home listings were taken off the market nationwide. Atlanta saw the biggest impact with one in ten homes delisted,

as high mortgage rates, gas and grocery prices continue to weigh on the market. And Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was revealed today as the cover athlete for EA's Madden 27 video game. The third-year pro called a childhood dream and full circle moment, but we won't mention that infamous Madden curse to my fellow Bears fans. Melissa, or Mike, excuse me, back over to you. I was going to say it doesn't really take a lot to get Barris fans a little bit upset. You know, I'm always a pessimistic, but I'm going to pretend to be optimistic for once. Keep expectations low. You get upside surprises. Thank you, Angelica.

All right, as stocks pull back today, bond yields once again rising toward the 4.5% mark on the tens. And it comes ahead of the jobs report on Friday and Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair two weeks from today. We'll dive into what the bond market is telling us. That is next. Welcome back to closing bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. Losses across the board today. The Dow losing more than 600 points. The NASDAQ and S&P both snapping nine session winning streaks. Broadcom, the big name, reporting after the bell today, stock down 5% after hours, beating on earnings by $0.4 a share, a narrow miss on revenue.

Earlier, Stacey Raskine telling us the company's AI revenue was disappointing and causing the stocks to climb. And C3 AI, a big after-hours winner, it lost less money than the street expected. It beat on revenue. Guidance was pretty much in line with forecast CEO Thomas Siebel, saying the company now has a well-defined strategy and restructured organization, and to quote him, game on. PVH, meanwhile, moving in the other direction. Results for this quarter were better than expected on both earnings and revenue, but it is lowering full-year earnings guidance. now making the high end of its range $12.10 per share. The current estimate is 1223. Company saying the full-year earnings outlook now includes the negative impact of the Middle East conflict. Stock down 22 percent this point.

Well, bond yields rising today on oil prices and the latest jobs data. Rick Santelli's got more. Hey, Rick. Hi, indeed. You know, this morning when we came in at 815, that really was a solid number, 122,000. And if you look at twos and tens, what you should know, notices is that yields obviously were up today for variety of reasons, but from 2 o'clock eastern on, look at how flat they are. That was beige book time. Bage book highlighted, more inflation, we all can see that. So-so employment, I'm not sure that that's up to date, and moderate growth. Debatable.

There seems to be some anecdote, leavenance may be a little bit better, but no matter how you slice it, the markets really were all about oil today. Look at oil intends. There they are, once again, shadow dancing. and let's not underestimate the firmness of the short end compared to the following of oil on the long end, because the spread between the two yields of twos and tens yesterday settled at the flattest it's been in 14 months going back to April of 2025. Rick, I want to ask you about some comments that President Trump made to the New York Post about the straight of whom we're saying that it's possible that the straight remains closed through Labor Day. I'm just curious what your take is on where the long.

end would be if that were the case. I think the long end's going to run out of a bit of patience here. I think that should that be the condition, the markets have been very generous in terms of being optimistic about wrapping this thing up. If it goes on for many more months, I do think that you're going to not only see the flattening subside a bit. I think the long end is going to pay more attention to the upside, maybe restapening the curve.

We all hope that this thing gets resolved. But as I said, I think the markets, they're on borrowed time in terms of giving the president kind of an easy walk so far. Yeah, I guess, what, about 20 basis points of cushion since those recent highs for the 10 year. Rick, thank you very much. With oil prices and bond yields rising sharply in recent months, what should investors be watching for ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting? Joining us now is RBC Global Asset Management, head of U.S. fixed income, Andre Skiba. Good to see you. Pleasure to see you.

So Rick pointed out pretty firm economic data this morning. You think that's actually a reliable indicator of the underlying trend? I think U.S. is just doing way better than a lot of investors were expecting it to do. Whether all of that is to do it, AI, or we're seeing a much more broad acceleration, taking the conflict in the Middle East to decide. U.S. is outperforming expectations. And I think as we're thinking about policy, as we're thinking about fixed income markets,

that will start coming into contention as we're thinking about the next moving rates. I mean, how much do you think we are on borrowed time at this point? I mean, it started the conflict. It was, you know, it's got to be resolved by May. It's got to be resolved by June. And now it's, oh, maybe it's Labor Day. And yet, you know, bond yields have been pretty much in a range

and the stock markets off to the races. Absolutely. At the same time, what we know is that U.S. is a pretty close economy. U.S. also is energy self-sufficient. So, yes, if this drags on for much, much longer, of course it will have an upward pressure on treasury yields, but we don't think that that will lead to a massive sell-off within fixed income. I think other markets in the world, look at Europe,

where you have no growth offset, where you have much more vulnerability to higher energy prices, that's where more pronounced moves might be happening. So if the domestic economy continues to hold pretty firm, inflation, obviously, is having this run higher, what does that leave the Fed? It's common to say it's in a tricky spot, obviously, with still with an easing bias, and yet the market's saying no way this year. Correct. I think the consensus right now is that Fed is on hold.

And investors are quietly hoping that Fed might be in a position to cut rates early next year as energy prices subside and situation normalizes. However, one of the things we're starting to consider is what is the risk that as the economy accelerates, as this gargantuan spend that we're seeing in AI lifts GDP, Fed will have to look at the US and say, do we run a risk of overheating? And is that a situation where we need to consider more than maybe one symbolic rate hike further down the line? So it will be fascinating to see the tone of the first press conference in a few weeks time. Hold on if you can end. Andre, we've got some breaking news here. Let's get to Leslie Picker.

Hi, Melissa. SpaceX filing. It's amended S1 detailing that fixed price that we had been expecting in report. reported earlier today, $135 per share as this company embarks on marketing, what is by no doubt, expected to be the largest IPO of all time, three times the largest IPO record holder here in the U.S., about $75 billion, because, according to this S-1A, SpaceX plans to offer 555.5.6 million shares in this offering, all primary stock here. So all $75 billion of this offering will go toward this company. None of it is from selling shareholders into this IPO. $75 billion, according to this S1A, what is likely to be the largest IPO of all time. But of course, they do have about a week

and a half worth of marketing to do in order to assess what the final price will be, which will ultimately be decided next Thursday before a debut, which is expected next Friday. guys. Got it. So yeah, obviously nothing is final until the price is set as part of the deal, Leslie. Although it seems like this is a take it or leave it proposition. They're not going to mess around with a $4 price range that would only have changed the total offering size by $2 billion or so when you've got a market cap targeting of $1.75 trillion. Right. Usually there's a bit of gamesmanship, a bit of psychology involved in this where at this stage of the process, you would set a price range. And, you You know, the bankers kind of know that, you know, they want to price it well.

They want to price it toward the high end or above the range because psychologically that will signal, oh, there's a lot of demand for this deal. This is a, quote, unquote, hot deal that, you know, will bring more people into the book. At this situation, according to people I've spoken with, there was so much testing the waters. And obviously, Elon Musk likes to do things very unconventionally. And so they basically said no need to have that range, no need to have that kind of back and forth. How much would you buy at this part of the range? They just decided on a fixed price to market this deal that does give them flexibility to change it.

Just because it's $135 per share now does not necessarily mean it will be $135 per share by Thursday. But it does kind of solve the size of the offering, which $75 billion. And then the valuation at this price point on a fully diluted basis, $1.75 trillion, which is also something I've been told is, you know, the size of, of the offering as well as the valuation are two pieces that the company had been kind of aiming for. So the $135.355.6 million shares solves for essentially what they were looking to do with this IPO. Right. Leslie, so they basically back sort of calculated the fixed share price or was there presumably some sort of testing the waters prior to setting a fixed price at this point? Yeah, I asked sources, Melissa, because, you know, Elon likes to do things.

with number. We saw what happened with the 420 per share that was offered. I asked if there was any significance to either 135 or 555.6. It sounds like there really wasn't that it just was kind of how the math worked in order to get to $75 billion for that offering size. It was basically as simple as that. I mean, the Google offering last week, this week rather, reminded me of when they did a secondary in 05 and the number of shares was the number sequence to the right of the decimal point in pie. So, I mean, sometimes you can have fun with these things. Elon seems not to be doing that in this case. I also do wonder, first of all, it's less than 5% of the total value of it's about 4.2% float, which is crazy small. We all know about NASDAQ going to put it in it maybe

three times that if I know, if the methodology is correct. So it's still not going to really be muscling around the indexes. I do wonder also if this reflects the idea. It's hard to imagine an investor who says, I'm willing to buy this thing at 134, but not 136. If you're going for the ride, you can't be precise about valuing a company that only has $25 billion in revenue and $1.75 trillion in market cap. You're not thinking about today. You're thinking about 20 years from now. I mean, that's the bet that you're taking when you're buying SpaceX. So much of this IPO, and this cannot be understated, is about the technical elements of it. It's people who are looking at the lockup calendar, people who are looking at the index inclusion calendar and the

size and how they'll be able to increase the float over time to get a greater weighting in the index, which will create an onslaught of potentially forced buyers just because of all the people who need to buy and all the different products that need to buy as a result of its indexed inclusion. This is a very unique situation. It also paves the way for a slew of other IPOs that are also looking to be valued potentially, you know, above a trillion dollars in their IPOs. And so I would say, you know, fundamentally, a lot of people look at this and they say 20 billion in revenue last year on a $1.75 trillion that is not more than 90 times last year's revenue. But when you kind of think about the

technical elements of it, it feels like something that a lot of people have more fomo about. I mean, as you mentioned, Leslie, this is, you know, Elon Musk's way of doing things. He likes to shake things up. So fixed price. He's asking for discounts from his underwriters. I mean, the list goes on and on in terms of how you. different this deal is. And do you think that any of this sets any precedent or paves away for the other big unicorn IPOs that are coming to also, you know, somehow following his footsteps? Yeah. It's interesting. You ask that, Melissa, because I think a lot of them are watching very closely to see how this one goes. It's no coincidence that you saw the Anthropic confidential

filing, you know, so they'll go, we'll see what happens with SpaceX before Anthropic has to make any big decisions that are similar. And then Open AI is reportedly also considering their confidential filing. You know, I think the fixed price dynamic is one that's been tried, you know, it's been used in Europe a bit. It's pretty rare here to see. And it's not been seen at, you know, for a deal this size. I also think the retail component is unique here as well with the 30% that they're targeting to allocate to retail. Usually for a deal this size, it would be much, much smaller sliver and anything bigger than that. would signal to the market, oh, you don't have enough institutional demand.

You have to go to retail. Retail is more likely to flip. They can be finicky. We don't want to do that. But this is so unique because it is Elon Musk. Elon Musk has a dedicated retail following, as we have seen with Tesla, as we have seen on social media and elsewhere. And so I think the advisor's thought process here is that this is a unique situation.

Is it repeatable that you could see that 30% or something even remote? that size in terms of allocation for the other deals. You know, I would be surprised, but, hey, you know, we'll see how this one ultimately works out. On the one hand, you can see, oh, it's opening up access to a broader, it's a more democratic process. On the other hand, you know, the fact that they had to sort of massage the index entry rules and you're opening up to retail, retail who follows Musk and is placed at least a trillion dollars of surplus value on Tesla relative to. what the business might be worth, you know, you almost need it. So you can kind of turn it the other way and say they kind of needed to kind of bring in this buying power from elsewhere. Right. Whose price insensitive? It is index providers and its retail, traditionally,

as opposed to, you know, institutional investors who will attend these meetings and they'll come with their discount and cash flow models and ask questions about that. You know, you have a really unique dynamic with regard to the changing of the index rules, as well as the retail component, which suggests to you, you know, the $1.75 trillion, it's pretty remarkable considering this is a company that valued itself at $1.25 trillion just four months ago when it did that deal with XAI. So that's about $500 billion in market cap in about four months. Leslie, thank you. Leslie Picker going through the amended S-1. Andre, thanks for being so patient here. I don't know if you think about these IPOs and what they symbolize in terms of the

fervor. And we were just talking about inflationary pressures, not just coming from, you know, energy prices, et cetera, but from just growth within the economy. Do you think it is a risk? If the Fed only does one, do you think that it's better if the Fed does two? Because that seems to be completely off the table in the minds of investors. I think at this stage it's too early to make such a determination. I think we need to see more inflation data, but also how U.S. economy is doing. If we start seeing U.S. economy heading towards 3% growth or even higher, and more and more hypers adding to their CAPEX by hundreds of billions, all of which moves the needle for the GDP, then we think Fed will have to consider that and respond. For the first

meeting, it will be much more about what tone will Chairwash have. Initially, Market was hoping for a Davish chair. might be changing given the broader economy setup. So it will be fascinating to watch how the press conference goes and what tone we will hear. Andre, great to see. Hope you'll come back since our time was abbreviated. Andre Skiba of RBC. Closing bell overtime.

Be right back. Stay with us. Breaking news. New comments from President Trump on Iran. Amen Javriss has got the latest. Amen. Melissa, that's right. The president just called reporters into the Oval Office and took a few questions.

And he was asked if the ceasefire with Iran still holds, given that we've seen a lot of firing for what is supposed to be a ceasefire. And the president kind of shrugged off concerns around that and suggested that, you know, each side has a reason to retaliate back and forth when the other side provokes it. He didn't seem overly concerned about that. He said that negotiations are going well with the Iranians. And he also said that there could be a deal as soon as this weekend if there is a deal. but we should, you know, caveat that the president's comments here were all very conditional.

You know, if the Iranians agree, if we get to a deal, it didn't sound to my year anyway as if anything is imminent, but the president seemed optimistic and said negotiations are ongoing, Melissa. And Amin, was the issue of, you know, Israel's actions and how that's going to influence the back and forth brought up during these Q&A? Yeah, you know, it was sort of a wide-ranging Q&A, and it bounced all our. around. And to be honest with you, there were real audio troubles. So we lost big parts of it. They've got a lot of RF interference in the Oval Office these days. So I can't say that it wasn't brought up. I did hear it. But it may have been brought up in those chunks that we lost in the Oval. Yeah. It's a movie target all around, I guess, Amy. Thanks very much. Well, let's get you up to

date with tomorrow's trade today. There will be more earnings to digest when Lulu Lemon, DocuSign, Rubric and Brown Foreman report. And several companies will begin trading tomorrow. Sunshine silver mining and refining will debut at the NYSC. Quantitium and Ineo will trade at the NASDAQ. Quintium, it's a spinoff of Honeywell. So, look, capital markets remain pretty active as we all gear up for the big supply coming next week. And of course, Quantinium, QNT is a ticker on that line.

I mean, that's a quantum trade and that's been pretty hot. I mean, we're talking about this repeatedly, but the areas of the market that investors get euphoric over. and quantum is one of them. Yes. So we'll see how that trades in relationship to, you know, the rest of the sector. Investors are squinting at the horizon, looking at the most distant point and saying, I want to buy what gets us there one way or another. And then in terms of how the market's maneuvering ahead of SpaceX next week,

I have to say it might be more concerning if we were shooting straight up vertically into it as opposed to kind of hesitating here. But we'll see how that all plays out. That's going to do it for overtime today. Fast money starts right after this quick break.