Closing Bell - Closing Bell 03/11/25

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

All right guys thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wopderleif from Post9 right here at the New York Stock Exchange. This Maker Breakout begins with of course the markets which had been down for most of the day today until a little while ago when things started to turn just a bit. Perhaps on some headlines about potential movement towards a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Some tariff headlines moving as well. Watching all of it closely of course. Here's how things look now with 60 to go in regulation. We've had a bounce in many tech names today and some of those go-go momentum stocks which have helped turn things around. Names like CrowdStrike, Invertiv, Applove, and Robinhood

all up today as is Palantir and those gains are sharp. It's certainly helping the market picture. Tesla's higher too after weeks of selling in that name. The Dow though still dragged by the likes of Apple and Verizon, Nike, McDonald's and Disney. Disney could be down in sympathy today with Delta after that company's outlook this morning. Bank stocks, they've been mostly weaker yet again today. We're watching those closely. Some of the private equity ones too.

Banks turning a bit as well. It does take us to our talk of the tape. How much lower might stocks go? banks turning a bit as well. It does take us to our talk of the tape. How much lower might stocks go? Let's ask Professor Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School. He does join us now. Professor, welcome back.

It's nice to see you. Good to see you, Scott. Do you have thoughts here as you watch these markets over these last days? Well, I'll tell you, if those two good developments perhaps stand down on the Canadian tariffs

and hopefully a ceasefire in Ukraine, if they hadn't come up, I think we would have had another thousand point drop day to day. I mean, it's clearly this disruptive, destructive, if I should say so, up and down trade policy that has really worried the market and sowed uncertainty among consumers and businesses. And you know, I hope that the Trump team sees what the stock market, and in fact, some early polling of some of this impact has so that this policy can be rationalized because I think it is by far the major cause

of the 10% decline that we've had over the last six weeks. Professor, let's just entertain an issue here. What if the White House and the president, as you say, don't care as much about the stock market right now as people thought that they might? And that policy and getting their policies through are more important than whatever the stock market does. I ask you this question because the press secretary at the White House today during

the briefing was asked about the sell-off in which she said, quote, we're in a period of economic transition after the mess created by Joe Biden. I also bring it up because the Treasury secretary himself told this network just last week there's no Trump put. It seems like they're telegraphing to investors that the economy is going to get worse before it gets better and the stock market may go down as a

result and so be it. Well, I mean, this makes no sense to me economically and no sense politically. I mean, I mean, so what are we saying? We're going to bring 100,000 manufacturing jobs back to the United States and tank the stock market by $20 trillion in the meantime? You think the people in Florida, they would go off, you know, the accumulated wealth that

they've done in the last 10 years are going to be all excited about, you know, some plant that Trump saves in Erie, Pennsylvania, for 300 jobs or 500 jobs. By the way, producing something that they could have brought cheaper without the tariffs beforehand, I mean, it just doesn't make sense. I hear it. But then I think of the politics of it and I think of the economics of it,, it just doesn't make sense. I hear it. But then I think of the politics of it, and I think of the economics of it, and it just doesn't wash. Yeah, we do, you know, I mean, there are unfair trade practices.

We want to normalize some of these, but this grand vision, the cost parity is just nowhere near there. And the political parity does not speak anywhere in favor of the Republicans or for the American public. Don't forget, almost half the American public own stock, if not directly, indirectly, through their 401Ks, through their IRAs, through their 401k's, through their IRA's, through their pension funds.

You have 180 million, 150 million people there. So we're going to bring some manufacturing back to the US. How many jobs is that? Less than one tenth of one percent? So they're going to get a little higher pay than they would otherwise. Where is the politics there, Scott? I don't see it. Maybe someone can tell me. Are you doubting whether there is in fact a Trump put, so to speak, in this market? I mean, I think there's a combination of a Trump put because I think there's a public

opinion and polling put. I don't think he'll like to see his approval rating go down. Remember, even in his State of the Union, he mentioned about the fact that people that think we're going in the right direction, although it's still less than 50-50, is way up from the Biden administration. I mean, he looks at those polls,

and those polls are gonna be affected by, well, not only the stock market. I mean, I talk to a lot of people that are worried, I think, too much in a way, but they're worried about the security of their job. Certainly, everyone working for state and local government, people that are working for federal. And by the way, we need to shake that up,

and I approve of a lot of Doge, let me say, but you can't, you know, job security is really a critical factor in people's lives, affecting public opinion, affecting his approval rating. So the put is the stock market on his approval rating. And maybe some of these moves that we got late today are, you know, a flood of phone calls. What are you doing? Especially

those that are going to be getting electricity from Ontario. I mean, let's hope that that public pushback can rationalize these trade ups and downs, which really make absolutely no sense to me. Professor, three o'clock, Reuters report, president quote markets are going to go up and down but we have to rebuild our country. It seems that that is the focus for this administration right now. If that means that the economy is in fact going to get worse before it gets better, how much worse does the stock market need to get before it gets better? Well first of all, bringing manufacturing back is a multi-year situation.

And how many jobs are you bringing back? And when he talks about the economy better, what is he referring to? Less inflation, better growth of real income. We had good growth of real income during his first term with very little tariffs, certainly nothing like what we're seeing now. And yes, I understand what happened to the heartland and the manufacturing there. By the way, which happened everywhere in the world, which also happened to Europe and everywhere else. Look at the problem of Germany relying on manufacturing now dead in the water. A little bit of a pick up because of maybe gearing up on defense.

But what we have seen over the last 40 or 50 years, the deindustrialization of the West is really due to the fact that China, India, the rest of the world opened up, industrialized, and could produce goods of equal quality at 30% to 40% less price. So, you know, I mean, that's just a fact of world trade. And we economists have talked about the gains from trade. We want to protect the people that are hurt.

But this idea about, you know, going through a recession, unemployment 6, 7 percent, and then what? When are these factories going to be built? And how many are they going to employ? When we, you know, if we're going to lay off two or three million, we're not producing anywhere near that amount of manufacturing jobs. The numbers don't add up in that story, Scott. Speaking of numbers, I mean, do you think the S&P is at risk of going far lower than

it is here if the economy continues to weaken, if some of the outlooks that have been given from the CEOs of this country come to fruition, business confidence is already apparently waning, NFIB optimism fell today for the second consecutive month. We know what some CEOs are saying about where the consumer's collective head is right now. Oh, no, absolutely. I mean, it could definitely go lower.

I mean, barely now 10%. That's just a bare touch of a correction. And given, you know, 20%-20% gains in each of the last two years, you know, this is not a lot down. And we're still, you know, quite, we're still high. We have a lot of promise ahead of us if he would rationalize this trade. I mean, talk about reciprocal tariffs, analyze each country, negotiate with them individually,

where they put a tariff on, say, listen, you know, you bring that down, then we'll do this. There's a lot of sense to that, but just penalizing Canada and Mexico willy-nilly, and particularly the Canadians, a lot of people are just shaking their heads about that. There's not instill confidence. Confidence, listen, it's a source of consumer spending. Consumer spending has been the strength of this economy over the last two years. You debt, you know, you say, oh my goodness, we have to go through a recession. Everyone's going to pull back.

Oh my goodness, I can lose my job. Oh, my portfolio is going down 20 percent. I'm not going to take that vacation. I'm not going to buy that luxury car. I'm not going to take that vacation. I'm not going to buy that luxury car. I'm not going to do this and that. I mean, you know, the confidence is the mother's milk of good economic performance, and, you know, these policies are not doing any good for that.

But what do you say to those who suggest that the president got elected on a wrecking ball platform. I don't think he got it. He said he was gonna, let me finish. He said he was gonna put on tariffs. We knew that Musk and the Doge crew were gonna dramatically cut government spending and relieve thousands, tens of thousands of people,

if not more, of their jobs. He got elected on the things, the very things that he is doing. So maybe we should have expected some turbulence now to see the forest through the trees and the back half of the year is gonna be better than the first. I did hear that from people who were coming on our air.

Yeah, I understand. Well, first of all, Doge had, Doge still had a lot of popularity. I mean, in fact, I'm for a lot of things. I all, Doge still had a lot of popularity. In fact, I'm for a lot of things. I'm for Doge. I mean, we could talk about the way it's been done. It could have been done better.

But I think everyone, listen, all governments need to be shaken up and paired off. I'm for closing a lot of agencies, even departments. I think they're overstaffed. You know, whenever you have government and nonprofit institutions, I can say the same about my university. A nonprofit has to get fat and lazy because there's no competitive pressure. We need competitive pressure.

So the Doge part, I'm much more sympathetic toward. But as far as saying, you know, he threatened tariffs, you know, back, you know, eight years ago. Didn't really happen, didn't really raise the prices. Nothing like what is happening now had happened in the first four years, and he had threatened the same thing. So many people said, oh, he's going to negotiate, put a little tariff here or there. You know, it's not going to be a big thing I mean nothing like you know 25 30 percent paired and the potential listen we look to me this morning and Noontime that this was the start of a real trade war

We have anything like that in the first term. So no, I don't think Americans bought into that If you would have asked them that I think they bought into the efficiency and fair trade concept but not these mega tariffs especially against you know Canada and Mexico much more well I guess that you know China has 20% but more than China which was always Trump's target in the first term and even on the campaign trail. So I don't think that these Mexico, Canada, where what is one third of our entire trade is or more is done against, this was not part of his campaign deal.

Professor, we're leaving it there. I so much appreciate your time and your perspective as we watch these markets remain unsettled. Bit of a turn as we come on the air here at three, but nonetheless, the issues remain. We'll talk to you soon. That's Professor Jeremy Siegel at the Wharton School. Big question. I know everybody's wondering the same thing. When is this going to stop? When is the selling going to stop? We're at the very least. Cool down. One big issue, a lot of wrong way positioning in this market by multi strategy firms long only hedge funds and retail Investors all coming to a head really at the very same time our Leslie picker here following that money

You can call it the deleveraging herd round Wall Street Maybe if you look at some of the market activity today in the moment in the momentum names the gogo stocks Tell me what you're hearing Yeah I think momentum is an important place to start here because it is indicative, especially if you look at kind of what momentum is doing today versus what momentum has done year to date. It has been a losing strategy year to date, thanks in part to the last few weeks,

where we saw a huge rotation out of momentum. Well, guess who was in momentum in an outsized way, Scott. It was the hedge funds. Everybody? Everybody, but also hedge funds who had leverage on that momentum trade as well. So maybe we could take a step back and look at when the 13F filings came out in mid February. And it took a few days for everybody

to kind of put this together, but it was clear that there was a lot of crowding into the Trump trade, a lot of crowding into Momentum's, the Momentum trade as well as Cyclical's. When people started getting a little bit more skittish, that trade unwound in a really big way, which affected a lot of you, you bring up multi-strategy, it affected their risk management teams,

which said, hey, we're down a lot, you gotta sell out of certain positions, de-leverage as you mentioned, in order to make sure that your losses are contained. What that does is it kind of creates a spiraling effect and other people start kind of getting clued into what's happening. And that is in part why you've seen such a huge drawdown in momentum in particular over the last week and a half to three weeks or so. I mean, you've had kind of a perfect storm, so to speak, of multi-strats, long onlys, retail. Yep. All in the same stocks at the same time and running for the exits a bit at the same time too.

Yes. Which is why we've seen the unraveling and the unwinding of some of those very popular names which are getting a bounce today which goes towards the question of when does it at the very least calm down. Someone that I talked to this morning said it's too early to say you just don't know but some of these firms are so big in size and they control a large amount of the flow that you see impacting the market every day that it's too soon at this moment I think to say the worst is over.

Now maybe the worst is over but at least it's maybe not finished. I think for it to be over you have to have a willing buyer. And at this point in time if you read through all the prime brokerage notes, I've been talking to some people in the hedge fund industry, one of the big concerns is if there is a rally that may indicate in the short term that this is over, do people sell into that rally? Because there still are so many concerns about the overall macro picture,

concerns about the trade war, concerns about growth in the economy, all of the things that kind of started this unwind in the first place, those don't really go anywhere. It's more of a technical nature that we're looking at. One thing that a source pointed out to me was this idea that net exposures have come down a lot.

This is at the 30th percentile versus five year, which is just largely indicative of everybody taking back their exposure to the market, taking back their long exposure, but gross exposures are very much higher than average. Goldman's trading desk today, by the way, had a note saying that hedge fund gross exposure is still at all time highs.

Right, all time highs. And what that means potentially is that people are adding a lot of short positions in order to protect, do that risk management that I mentioned, in order to protect their downside in what may seem like at that point in time a falling knife. Therefore, a question is, because there's been so much short exposure added to the market, is that primed for some sort of squeeze that would again be more technical in nature that could be an opportunity for some people to sell into that kind of rally which would then again not necessarily indicate an end it just would indicate more volatility from here. Yeah, we'll watch all of it. Leslie and I know you'll be following it following the money for us thank you that's Leslie Picker here with us let's bring in CNBC senior economics correspondent Steve Leesman now for what the Fed might be thinking about this market

meltdown. Steve, and if it gets any worse from here. Well, classically, Scott, the Fed would see this as a tightening of financial conditions and would tend to lean against it. As you know, I've long been thinking about the confusion this creates or the tension that's creates for the Federal Reserve because the Downdraft is created. It would appear by tariffs which raise prices So the Fed is in this bit of a pickle here where it would be forced to address Declines in aggregate demand perhaps declines in investment Whatever the actual fallout is and the tightening of financial conditions by lowering rates but doing so into higher inflation. I've talked to a lot of people you had Rich Claradon yesterday.

A lot of people think the Fed is much more likely to address that aggregate demand issue and look through tariffs as they are right now. The trouble you have, Scott, is you're in the middle of a tariff war right now. That's pretty clear. One started by the United States of America and then responded to by Canada and unclear how Mexico and then we're going to go after Europe and the rest of the world with our tariffs. And so when and how these prices work through the system is entirely unclear.

It could give the Fed pause unless there is a noticeable downdraft on the demand and the job site. Cut probabilities are going up though, correct? Yeah, they've kind of gotten to a place Scott where they've sort of been. You have this 46% probability in May and then it jumps to 90 in June or it's a little bit higher now or a little bit,

there it is, that throws the right numbers there on the screen, 84 in June. I think the Fed probably wants to wait until, people think the Fed will wait until it comes out with its forecast and I think till some of the tariffs work through the system so the Fed will have a chance to see that that's the first cut and then you move on and you look down the road you see an 80% probability of a cut in, of a second cut in September and then 68% for December or something like that.

Steve, thanks as always, Senior Economics correspondent Steve Leesman with the very latest for us on that angle. Let's bring in now Stephanie Guild of Robin Hood and Marcy McGregor of Maryland Bank of America Private Bank. It's nice to see you both. Stephanie I think one of the key questions in all of this is what does retail do? Does retail buy the dip like they were right to do in all of these other occasions and some of the most momentum like names that have been so closely tied to that cohort? What are you seeing?

The buy the dip reaction function has shifted just like the markets have. We are still seeing our clients invest, but they're doing it in specific names that they love. So Tesla, Nvidia, and otherwise they're kind of peanut buttering more than I've ever seen them and investing in index funds. And then they're using our high cash rates. Like we Robin Hood has a 4% cash yield.

So we're kind of seeing the both sides. I mean, diversification makes sense right now. Marcy, how much has this story changed about where you thought this market could go and where we think it might now Yeah, we've been telling our clients to focus on the trend line not the headlines right because there's a lot of noise and headlines When I take a step back, I think some of the weak economic data from January was really weather related So I think that's a little bit of a head fake now, of course, there's uncertainty around trade policy So we'll watch that closely.

That remains an unknown but if I think about what the drivers of a market recovery are in our view it's going to be above average earnings. We have six of the eleven S&P sectors in Q4 posted double digit year over year earnings growth. I think it's going to be about broadening in markets. No head fake there. If you look at the last two years in the S. M. P. less than 30% of the constituents outperform the index. Year to date through yesterday that number is more

like 63% of the index. Of the constituents are outperforming the index. So broadening is definitely underway. I think when we look later in this year I think you're gonna see this gradual easing of financial conditions potentially on a weaker dollar

you know if the growth scare if the growth scare and soft data starts to manifest you could have a Fed that cuts watch the unemployment rate there and then I think the corporate landscape is set to improve in the second half of the year despite all

this uncertainty around the potential for deregulation, a merger cycle, and possibly the extension of tax cuts. So I think that's what actually drives markets towards recovery. So we're telling clients to buy weakness and stay diversified. And that includes Europe,

that includes international markets, but we still think the U. the US ultimately leads the way. I just wonder, Marcy, what the reaction is going to be when people, if they do, come to the realization, if they should, that as I said to the professor, that the administration and this president at this moment just don't care as much about the stock market as people would like to believe. And they're not listening to, investors are not listening to the telegraphing that continues to be underway from this White House.

The president, another headline, not concerned about the market sell off. How many times does the president have to say that or those around him have to make that case for people to stand up and listen and think that the scorecard they thought mattered the most actually doesn't right now. Ultimately I think in that scenario that's where you may see the fed step in a little bit. Now the fed I think is being very intentional about not anticipating policy not anticipating economic weakness but you did start to see the economy starting to slow down. That's when I think that cuts could

come back on the table now we're a little bit out of consensus here I think the fed is in pause mode. I think CPI is gonna be very telling tomorrow I think it's gonna show. That progress in inflation has stalled out- but

in that scenario you're laying out I think that's where you could get a fed that starts to you know. Enter in and start easing policy but again I still think that's where you could get a Fed that starts to, you know, enter in and start easing policy. But again, I still think that's a ways away. I think we get through these clouds of uncertainty and it all comes back to earnings at the end of the day. That would be, I guess, Stephanie, the saving grace for some. If no Trump put, maybe a Fed put. Oh, I agree with you. Look, I didn't grow up skiing, so I hate a low visibility ski day, and that's what we are in, a low visibility market. And I think that the market was kind

of betting on, you know, hope is not a strategy, but they were hoping for the Trump put, and I don't think it's here. I do think it's in the bond market. I do think they want to get interest rates down. How do you do that? You get you lower growth or at least lower sentiment on growth and then sentiment on growth ends up could becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. So we've lowered our growth expectations. I had a 3% unreal GDP which was high but not high long-term history and so I've lowered my earnings growth expectations as well. Consensus is at 11.8. I'm at 11.

I could see it come down even more than that. I'm actually also about to lower my S&P target from 6,500 to 6,300 for the year. Okay, not a huge move. Not a huge move, but. But nonetheless, I guess a showing of where your own sentiment seems to be. Yeah, but that being said,

the real economy is not Houdini. Growth does not disappear as fast as the sentiment has kind of shown. So I do think this could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy, but I'm waiting to see because I think a lot of the data is just showing some stuff in preparation for tariffs and things like that coming.

All right, let's leave it there. Ladies, I appreciate your time very much. Stephanie, thanks for being here. Marcy, we'll talk to you soon. Thank you as well. To Christina Partanelos now for a look at the biggest names moving into this close. What do you see? I'm going to start with Viking Therapeutics. Shears are slumping right now after it has secured a $150 million manufacturing deal for its experimental weight loss drug. It's expected to produce up to a billion oral doses of the treatment annually, and that's why you're seeing shares down about 6% because analysts say the deal signals Viking isn't open to a takeover

deal in the near future. Verizon also in the red today after the company warned wireless subscriber additions could be soft amid intensified competition. They're expecting gross additions that are flat to slightly down from the year prior and that's why you're seeing shares down about 6% Scott. Alright Christina thanks for that. We're just getting started here up next. A moment of truth for Musk and Tesla. Wedbush's Dan Ives, he is out with another note on the automaker.

We will discuss what is at stake for the future of that stock, which is getting a bounce today just after the break. Tesla's there slightly higher today, but seeing a more than 50% drawdown from its recent high. Several negative notes this week about that stock, not from our next guest though, who has defended it and more than once. Dan Ives is Wedbush Securities Head of Technology Research. He's here with us at Post9. Thank you for coming on today. Yeah, great to be here. I appreciate you being here

because I think it's interesting that you have defended this name, not once, but twice, in the last handful of days. On March 6th, last week, you called it a table pounder. Last night, you said your bullish view was unchanged. There were a lot of questions about the stock. It's been down seven straight weeks. Why'd you feel compelled to come out

and defend it not once but twice? Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, I mean, we've been talking investors all around the world on Tesla. And it's like, is this a moment that basically the bull thesis basically gets thrown out because of some of the brand issues, the distractions? And our view is when things are great,

okay, anyone could be there, but when things are tough, moments like this, I think that's where we've been able to guide Tesla investors over the decade, right, in terms of these moments. I don't believe that this is really a black swan event for Tesla in terms of the brand issues, in terms of something that could really deteriorate

the medium and long-term outlook. But no doubt we've talked about it. It's a moment of truth for Musk. No one, including ourselves, expected he'd be this involved in Doge, this involved in Trump administration, and it's really cascaded, and I think this is a pivotal moment for him.

Explain to me how you go from your bullish view unchanged. Those are your words. Yep. Last night to this morning where you put out a note ahead of our appearance, where you call it a moment of truth. What happened from last night to this morning where you didn't have that perspective until this morning?

Yeah. How does this happen? I think from our perspective, it's more hearing Musk, hearing from investors around the world, and it's basically saying the medium long-term case for Tesla, I continue view, two trillion. I believe when it comes to physical AI, autonomous robotics, they're actually the best position coming in the world. But with that said, to hear Musk continue to talk and again on social media as well, it's really us trying to explain like, look, this is the time, very similar as we saw during Twitter, very similar as we saw even called a year and a half ago, this is the time to

lead. It's a time to be CEO because I think patience is wearing thin among investors and it was really to communicate those thoughts at I think a pivotal time for the stock. The reason why the stock is down seems to be a confluence of events. Obviously his presence within the administration, as close as he has become, he's become a much more polarizing figure politically. But the facts are the facts. And the facts are that sales are not good and they haven't been good.

Is any, I mean, are you taking that into consideration? Sales in China down for the past five consecutive months, right? Down 49% in February, the lowest monthly figure since July of 2022. U.S. sales down again last month, down 75% in Europe, 65% in Australia. This has become more of a headline story to an actual fundamental breakdown somewhere. Yeah, but let's also talk about what's ahead.

In other words, the refresh from a model Y perspective, when you look at a lot of the refreshes that are happening Europe, in China, in the US, you got the unsupervised FSD in Austin. I continue to believe 90% of the value going forward is going to be autonomous, is going to be robotics, when it comes to Optimus. And I believe from a demand perspective,

especially when it comes to FSD, I believe from a demand perspective, especially when it comes to FSD 15% of Tesla owners have FSD. That's what we estimate as that goes to 40 50 percent I mean numbers basically triple in terms of from an EPS perspective as that plays out and look I get it This is a time have we been dead wrong this year in Tesla? Of course, it's been a disaster call. But for 25 years, I have, our best calls are ultimately in times like this, that I believe as you navigate the noise, this will be not just a one trillion, but two trillion, but it comes down to Musk needs

to balance, Doge, Tesla CEO, that's something where I think the clock struck midnight. What's confusing to me is why you feel so compelled to come out and defend the name twice in the midst of a historic drawdown period for the stock without getting some more clarity in your own mind about what the actual sales numbers are going to be. Whether this is some existential issue, I don't know whether it is or not.

You don't, nor does anybody else. Of course, there are a lot of people, investors, car buyers, who continue to believe in not only Musk, but the name itself, and will continue to be supporters. But until you have more facts, why compel to come out twice in the midst of all of this selling and defend

it. I think three reasons. One, I mean, we did our survey, thousand, you know, Tesla customers, how many would actually pause in terms of future buying was less than 5%. So I think that's important just in light of what we're seeing to actually start to quantify. Is that the best metric to look at? Asking those who already are believers and have the product?

Isn't the issue those who don't and may not buy the vehicles? Sure, that's one, but I actually think one of the bigger worries is for Tesla customers, do they actually pause purchase? Do they go away from that? What does this mean in terms of the core base? So I think one's that. Two, it's trying to navigate investors through what looks like such a dark period, and it is.

Our number's gonna come down in terms of one queue, I get it, but it's showing the medium and long-term story. Me and you have sat here many times over the years in dire times to only see the forest through the trees. The third thing would be also, it's me communicating not just the Tesla, but I think investors being like, it's time for Musk to step it up. In other words, the doge, you have to balance it. Otherwise it continues down this path, then brand deterioration

becomes much bigger. The bottom line is you think the longer term story, the long story is still intact. Medium and long term story intact but Musk it's time now he needs to step it up to see it we've seen other periods that's why it's a moment of truth another moment of truth for Musk and that was also the reason with the note today. I appreciate you coming on thank you very much it's Dan Ives Wedbush up next 314's Warren Pies is back he downgraded stocks in early February anticipating a potential correction we'll see how he's navigating this volatility next. We're back. Another volatile day obviously for stocks and another firm downgrading its view of US equities today. Citi cutting its view to neutral.

Our next guest downgraded his own view in early February on a possible correction. 314 research co-founder Warren Pies is here now for his view of these markets. So yet another one cuts its view. Where do we go from here? Yeah, thank you for having me back. I'd say the good news is that I wouldn't be looking to reduce exposure at this point. I think there's a good chance you end up reducing closer to the lows than the tops at this point. However, I'm not looking to increase exposure either. I still think that we are in the middle of the risk window that we highlighted back I think when we talked a month or so ago

and that risk window extends out into April. The mantra that I've been kind of repeating for clients is that there's an old saying on Wall Street, the market will stop panicking when policymakers start panicking. And I think that's exactly where we're at right now. We're just waiting on some kind of policy response, either from the Fed or from the administration. I think that's gonna be a little bit slow coming.

And so, yeah, I don't think it's time to buy the dip just yet. I mean, they keep telling you, they, the administration, that they're, you know, they're not so concerned about the daily gyrations of this stock market, at least to this point. There is no indication, despite prior history of, you know, Trump 1 1.0 that the stock market today is near important to them as it was yesterday so to speak looking back to the first term. Yeah absolutely I mean that's exactly the point of we need policymakers to respond I think to set a bottom for the market ultimately and I think out of the Trump administration it's not coming. They've pretty much gotten on the same page.

You hear Besant on CNBC here recently saying the marketing economy is gonna go through a detox period as we transition from public to private spending. And then you heard the press secretary today kind of say the same thing and Trump also talking about that transition period. And that's kind of code for we should expect some volatility. And I think the investors who kind of latched on to the Trump one playbook need to really listen to that. And so that brings the Fed, I think, into the forefront.

The Fed is coming in about two weeks. I think that the tariff uncertainty and everything and maybe a little bit of politics thrown in there has the Fed on this hawkish pause that we expected. This is kind of the exact recipe we saw that was going to potentially create a growth scare. And so yeah, I think both wings of policymakers, the Trump administration and the Fed are on the sideline for now. So yeah, and the other factor that we look at is that when you go into April, I think that's where the next leg could come from, the next leg down. That's where really some negative liquidity dynamics start to kick in because you think back to last year, you had a huge bull market last year, S&P up 20%, gold up huge, crypto

up huge. That creates a capital gains tax bill that comes due in April Historically, those are really rough periods following bull markets. So it's kind of a perfect storm in our view Who blinks first market maybe Warren will talk to you soon. I've got to keep it short today. Thanks for your time as always Up next the biggest movers into the close. Christine is back with that Scott you got one chip testing giant slashing forecast and making a surprise Acquisition plus why one Wall Street firm sees massive upside in a beaten down social media stock details next We're about 10 from the close. Let's get back to Christina now for the stocks that she's watching.

Christina, let's start with semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, Teradyne. They now expect fiscal 2026 profit and sales to hit the low end of previous guidance. They had an analyst day presentation and management cited new uncertainties, uncertainties around tariffs and trade relations that are causing order delays with customers and capital expenditure reviews with customers. The firm also announced the acquisition of another testing company for an undisclosed amount but that's why you're seeing shares down about 16%. On the opposite end, you see a bold call coming from Loop Capital suggesting Reddit has the

greatest potential upside compared to market expectations among all the companies they cover. So very bold. Analysts point to the recent 50% stock decline over the past month, the resulting lower valuation, the company's growing cash reserves as a positive for the name up 13%. Keep in mind yesterday's shares dropped double digits though. Scott. All right. Christina, thanks very much for that. Christina Partzanevalos. Auto stocks getting hit today's session. We break that down coming up. Coming up next, what's behind the drop in coals today and Dick's Sporting Goods. We'll tell you inside the Market Zone.

We're now in the closing bell Market Zone. CNBC Senior Markets commentator Mike Santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus two retailers hit pretty hard in this sell-off today. Courtney Reagan with those details. Phil LeBeau on how the auto stocks are reacting to the latest tariffs, twists and turns. Court, we begin with you. Tell us. Yeah, so coal's on pace for its worst day on record. Back to its IPO 1992 trading at the lowest level since January of 97. While its holiday earnings were better than expected, sales just in line, guidance well below consensus. With its new CEO laying out a strategy, including changing the assortment, it's got some work to do. It's also slashing its dividend by 75%.

Now, Dick's Sporting Goods shares, those are also lower. But unlike Kohl's, it turned in another great quarter, but its guidance fell short of consensus. And while it expects sales will grow in the coming year, it's at a lower rate than the street had expected. Executive Chairman Ed Stack told me, quote, it's right to be conservative right now in this environment.

Earnings too fell short of estimates for the full year for its guidance at least. However, Dix is increasing its capex beyond historical trends as it invests further in its house of sport concept. They're big, big stores. Imagine very costly. Back over to you.

All right, Courtney. Appreciate that. Thank you, Courtney. Reagan, oh, to be a auto CEO these days. Phil LaBeau. Wouldn't be fun, that's for sure. Take a look at the auto stocks today, Scott. Pretty much on the lower side for almost all of them, although you see General Motors, the one loan exception here up a little bit today. The suppliers, they're probably in a worse position than the automakers because they're in a far more precarious position financially and that's why all of the auto suppliers, if you will, were under pressure today. And finally, because it wouldn't be a market zone hit without a check on Tesla, hey guys,

they moved higher today, up 10 bucks. But it's still an ugly chart if you go back over the last three months. Scott, back to you. Don't rip on the market zone, Phil. I feel like that was kind of a backhanded comment at us, but that's OK. That's Phil LeBeau. Mike Santoli is here now. We try to balance. I mean, we kind of are, but this market still feels guilty until it's proven innocent. Yeah, that was sort of the take coming into the week. And it's sort of been emphasized. Not the most emphatic balance. If you were looking for maybe what improved on in the action today, it is the stuff that really let us down. The high growth crowded momentum names did get some relief. It suggests that the forced

mechanical selling in that area maybe is finished, did not create a great buying response, but I do think you can back up and say, once you touch a 10% correction, as we did intraday, it really does take a little more evidence of outright economic weakness to think that you're gonna get much more downside soon. Keith Lerner of Virtua is pointing out, we've actually gone down two full S&P PE ratio points in three weeks.

Usually don't get a lot more downside than that. So the point is, if you're gonna need a lot more downside that so the point is if you you're gonna need a little more fundamental erosion everyone knows your prime to bounce if not everything's really fitting together perfectly you're not seeing any kind of buying frenzy in treasuries for example yields are actually up on the day we got CPI tomorrow that might at least clarify what we're looking at in terms of whether inflation is building up ahead of steam

again before we might want help from the Fed. So we're gonna go out here. We'll still be decidedly negative obviously on the Dow. We're trying to rally a little bit elsewhere in parts of the market but the beat goes on here on Wall Street. Morgan and John will pick it up at OT. I'll see you tomorrow.