Closing Bell - Closing Bell 04/29/25

Episode Date: April 29, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

Scott Wobbner live from Post9 here at the New York Stock Exchange today. This make or break out begins with the latest on the trade war, the administration marking 100 days in office. Investors hoping better days are ahead for stocks, which do look like this with 60 to go in regulation. We did have a jump just short of 2 p.m. That's when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said right here on CNBC that he has made a trade deal,

wouldn't say with whom or when it would be announced, but nonetheless you can see the move in the market. He also said President Trump isn't focused on the stock market, but if he was and if he is, he'd see that it's a pretty good day. Stocks also digesting the adjustments made to those auto tariffs. We'll have the latest there. In just a few, we're also looking ahead to mega cap earnings in the coming days. Microsoft and Meta, Apple, Amazon all reporting and all are green except the Amazons hugging the flat line today. It does take us to our talk of the tape. Hardly the stretch most investors were anticipating when President Trump took office back in January. The trade war derailing, a good start to the year for stocks. The question now, can the markets get their mojo back?

We'll ask Black Rock's Rick Reeder that question in just a few when he joins us live. We do begin though at the White House. Our own Megan Casella has the very latest. Hi, Megan. Hey, Scott. So just in the last few minutes here on the South Lawn, we saw the president depart for Michigan where he's having a speech tonight to mark that 100 days as you said and he says a big focus of his speech will be on the economy it also comes just ahead of that executive

order he's set to sign on the auto tariff relief and he spoke to reporters a little bit on those auto tariffs that relief measure he emphasized this would be short-term help for the companies during a transition period as they try to move some manufacturing back to the US he emphasized though it's just for two years when they got that rebate relief that he didn't want to penalize them as they're working to do some more reshoring and that overall he's not worried about the industry. But we are expecting, we do know now I should say, some more of the details of that executive order and it's not the clearest relief plan I would say that

you've ever seen but there are two parts to this. The first is that the White House says they are destacking the auto tariffs from most of the other tariffs that are left on the board. So that means that if you're auto parts that you're importing, you will still have to pay a 25% tariff, auto tariff on that part, but you would not have to also pay a steel and aluminum tariff or a Canada and Mexico fentanyl tariff on that part. So it's just the auto tariff that you pay now. There is one major exception though, which is that if you're importing parts from China, those are also subject to the 145% China

tariff. But then the bigger chunk of this is this sort of rebate relief just for the next two years. The administration is giving some money back from that tariff revenue back to the auto manufacturers, essentially covering about 15% of the automobile in the first term, in the first year, I should say, and 10% in the second year. After that, it's sort of up to the companies to either have moved their manufacturing to the U.S. or to continue paying the tariff. So some relief for the companies, although it is short-lived, Scott. All right, Megan, thank you.

Megan Casella, North Lawn of the White House, as you see. Another big story today in that building, too. Amazon catching some heat from the White House today after a report said it's considering displaying tariff costs. Our Kate Rooney has those details on what's been a back and forth all day, and then the president had to step in.

Scott, this has been quite the day for Amazon. So it started earlier in the morning with Punchbowl News reporting that Amazon would possibly show consumers, they were going to show how much of each item's cost was actually coming from tariffs. Again, this was a report the White House immediately hit back responding to that report. This was the press secretary this morning calling it a hostile and political act. She asked at the time, why didn't Amazon do this under the Biden administration when they hiked

inflation she said to the highest level in 40 years. So Amazon later jumps on and tries to clarify that they say the company was only considering listing some of the changes on the products. This was only for a narrow part of the business called Amazon Hall. It's the ultra low cost product side. And then in a follow up statement about an hour after that, an Amazon spokesperson clarified even further said the plan to show tariff surcharges was, quote, never approved and is not going to happen.

So putting a pin in it there, we do know now that President Trump personally called Amazon founder Jeff Bezos to complain about that initial report and talk to Bezos, the president saying in a press briefing just in the last hour or so that the call with Bezos was great, said Jeff Bezos, is very nice and solved the problem quickly. Amazon does report earnings this week on Thursday, it does underline a lot of the pressure that tech companies and retailers are right now, they're under right now to really stay in the good graces of the White House. We did see that immediate fallout if they do get off sides. Expect CEO Andy Jassy to need to address this

as well as tariffs and what it's gonna mean for margin. So big earnings report as well, Scott, this week for that. Back to you. Yeah, if you asked about it, you can bet on that. Kate Rooney, thank you very much for that report. General Motors pulling back today after essentially withdrawing its previous guidance on tariff uncertainty. Then, then of course you did have the news

about the tariff adjustments phil lebeau following all of it putting it into perspective force phil. Yeah there's two pieces of news for general motors today Scott let's start first off with the numbers that came out early this morning before the market they were better than expected in some regard they beat the street on both the top and the bottom line with the company earning $278 a share. The street was expecting $274. EBIT adjusted margin of 7.9%. They did turn a profit in China. Remember, that was a mess last year. Took a big charge. Well, in the first quarter, they earned $45 million

over in China. But the other piece of news that's probably getting more attention for GM investors is the fact that the company said, you know what? We are going to delay our conference call and they are pushing it to Thursday. Originally today, they said disregard our guidance for 2025. We're reassessing. Now they're expected to give updated guidance on Thursday. Why? Because they now probably have a better sense of how to operate with these tariffs, given the tariff reliefs that is Megan outlined just a few minutes ago. Keep this in mind with GM's U.S. production. They have 11 final assembly plants. 54% of the vehicles they sell in the United States, they build in the United States. So they do a fair amount of importing here so they would be impacted by these changes in the tariff rules.

61% of the capacity is used, though they are trying to change that. They're doing things like moving some of the pickup production from Mexico up to Fort Wayne, Indiana. Lots to discuss with CEO Mary Barra. We will be talking with her first on CNBC on Squawk Box Thursday morning. This is after the company will give it's what's expected to be its updated guidance for 2025. And of course, we'll be talking about the impact of these adjustments in the tariffs, Scott.

Oh, that's great. We'll look forward to that. Phil, thank you. That's Phil LeBeau. All right, now let's bring in Rick Reeder. He is BlackRock's CIO of Global Fixed Income. He is also the head of their global allocation team. It's good to have you.

Thanks for having me, appreciate it. So let's start big picture, right? We're talking about a hundred days of this administration, a hundred days in which the markets have not acted, I think how most thought they would on January the 20th. Is that the same for you? Yeah, I mean, you know, when you come in each year with a game plan and a strategy, this one's been a little bit different. And listen, I mean, you know, I think I've said on the show with you before, US economy is actually incredibly stable,

very rarely goes into recession. It takes an exogenous shock to create it. And now we're going through this period of what's pretty extraordinary uncertainty. And we've got to get, it's interesting when you listen to corporate earnings, a lot of pulling guidance, a lot of trying to interpret where we're going. And you go through this earnings season, and the data we have through March 31 for companies is interesting, but it's not terribly revealing about where we're going. It's a little like, you know,

what the economy did before the internet, interesting, but things are changing and the uncertainty is still high and the uncertainty by industry is incredibly high. The uncertainty by regional, how companies think about cost of goods sold, their distribution mechanism, the logistics, et cetera. So it's a pretty unusual period of time. I mean, does the president's trade war and these tariffs, does that qualify in your mind

as the exogenous shock that you now worry would send the economy into recession? So it's a great question. So I don't think, I think the US economy ends up pulling through quite nicely. But the question of how long does it take, and the question of, you know, China's a really big deal, 145% tariff on China, the flow through effect to much of the economy is pretty darn significant, and inflation on the backside of that, that is a pretty significant influence on where the economy is. I think the US economy will be fine. In the next two months, or the data we'll get for April, May, and and June you could go through a pretty significant

downturn as companies pull back and say we're gonna wait as consumers say you know what I'm a bit fatigued by price I'm a little concerned I'm gonna wait and so I just think you know whether it's a long-term recession I don't think it will be I just think you can have a little bit of a pullback here we have significant near-term growth deceleration't think it will be I just think you can have a little bit of a pullback here we have significant near-term growth deceleration as people just say out you know I want to wait. I mean so you're describing a short and shallow recession if we have one in your mind that that's that's basically what I take from what you said. Correct, correct although I'm

not you know it's a question of how do how shallow is shallow I think it tends be short. And then I think as you get in the second half of the year, then you know, the things will evolve, we'll get through some of this. It's the uncertainty that is so hard. Markets hate uncertainty. CEOs hate uncertainty. It's a question now of pullback, and then see where we go. And I think once people get clarity, even if the tariffs ultimately end up being the effective tariff rate, let's say it's 15%ish, US economy can withstand that. Where it is regionally, where it is by sector, there'll be some real dispersion.

But I think the economy can handle it. And then I think the second half will show better results. You sound, I don't know, perhaps a little more sanguine, maybe more positive than I would have expected, just given where we expected to be and where we are and the amount of fog, so to speak, that's still in front of everybody's eyes? So I would say a couple things.

First of all, I've learned in my career, sometimes you gotta operate through the haze, and usually there's better money generated when you're in the haze because of, you gotta take some risk. I mean, if you go back a week or two ago people were buying we were selling puts on the s a p on banks on uh... and it was incredible what people were paying for insurance after the hurricane now i think you've got valuations that quite frankly

if i had to put a letter of grade on where we are today c minus but i don't think these valuations are very exciting. I think people are generally negative and the technicals in the equity market are pretty good. So could we push a little bit higher? I have to say, if you said we've got pricing and earnings growth of 8% as you're pricing

a 21 multiple off of that, those valuations are not attractive, but the technicals are pretty good. So I would say, you know, we are, you know, today, I actually like selling some of the upside in equities versus where we were a couple of weeks ago, but the technicals tend to win and they're definitely pushing the market higher than valuations would suggest. That's interesting because you've been worried about valuation for a while. And you still say even with only getting 50% back from the record high to the post-liberation

day low, that we still need to do some work to the downside to make the price of this market even more attractive. So you see, Scott, I hear the debate on your show and others about what is the right multiple in a slowing economy going potentially into recession. Again, I think it'll be shorter, but you could have some impact on the downside in the short term. What's the right multiple? You know, and I've heard people say 15, 16. I think that's, I think that's significantly too low because you have a third of the equity market that throws off

Tremendous roe the mega cap etc tech etc but if you said gosh, we should operate in the 17 to 21 multiples somewhere in that zone and Then if you say okay earnings growth of you know, I talked about 8% I think it should be a little lower than that the fair value of the equity market strikes me today It's still below today's levels. I would argue five to ten percent below today's levels Listen once you get through the uncertainty then I think you've got upside But I don't know I think multiple today is a bit high and I think the earnings growth That we're seeing today that's priced into the market is a bit is a bit elevated. I feel like I'm trying to glean what then you think about what the Fed might do. Because if the valuation is too high of the market based on earnings expectations, and

you also suggest in the nearer term we could have a recession, even if it's short and shallow, that could prompt the Fed to make a move. Do you expect them to do that? To cut rates maybe sooner than people think? No, so I don't think they'll do it in this meeting, but I think as you get into June, the numbers that I'm focused on,

I mean, inflation's too high for the Fed to cut. The numbers I'm focused on, the next inflation's too high for the Fed to cut. The numbers I'm focused on the next two or three months including this Friday is the labor data is going to be very interesting. The Joltz report was interesting in terms of you know where you see some companies pulling back the openings are slowing. There are a couple areas that I and I said I was looking at this in Joltz today there are a couple of areas leisure and hospitality which you've driven and by the way which benefited from immigration flows. Leisure and hospitality, how companies think about, you know, it's interesting reading Hilton today, how you

think about the hires there. That's been, over the last three years, that's about 20, 21% of the hiring. And then healthcare and education, that have been a huge amount of the hiring. Watching what those look like over the next of the next two three months because those are big chunks of hiring if those start to come off and then you start to see labor start to come down so that the feds got that rule that runway to do it i can see the moving in june and then uh...

and that but i think they got to see the data and i think i've been by the way i think you'll get and i think you get that slowing of labor but i you know sooner than i don't think the way, I think you'll get it, and I think you'll get that slowing of labor. But, you know, sooner than I don't think, you know, I don't think it'll be this meeting for sure. I mean, the soft data has been terrible, right? The consumer confidence is the latest example of that. The lowest since, you know, early 2020.

There's been suggestions, including, by the way, from members of the Fed, including the chairman himself, that it's really dangerous to try and read through from soft to hard data. What are your thoughts on that? So I agree with that. I mean, I always find surveys incredibly distracting. And people tend to operate in a bad, you know, they could have a bad mood and they still spend and I always find consumer surveys as not terribly valuable.

For the first time though, I actually think that some of these surveys will translate and because companies are pulling back a bit in the near term, certainly households are being a bit more cautious at these price levels, but you have to see it and I think it's very fair to it. I think surveys predict three out of every one recession. I think you've got to see the hard data. My sense is you will see the follow through on hard data, but I think the predict three out of every one recession. I think you got to see the hard data. My sense is you will see the follow through on hard data, but I think the Fed has to see that as well.

I find, by the way, it's the same thing with corporate surveys as well. They tend to react to what the S&P 500 is doing. I think they tend to be extreme. Some of these numbers on new orders that are coming off quite a bit, that seems to me to be reflective of the fact that companies are canceling orders, companies are thinking through what do I need to do around these price pressures, cost of goods

sold. So I think you'll see some translation in the hard data over the next couple of months. You think the worst of the bond market volatility is over, the one that really spooked the stock market and maybe even the White House to some degree? So I think the bond market will be largely in a range, particularly the front of the belly yield curve. I mean, one of the things that, you know, when all is said and done, when you take stock of where prices are, the actual, if you take the front to belly of the yield curve, it's been reasonably stable. And, you know, income has done its job this year.

If I look at how fixed income's done this year, relative equities relative to a number of other things, it's actually been pretty good. My sense is the front of the belly of the yield curve will still hold in well and anticipate the Fed's moving. Long end of the yield curve, I think, is a tricky dynamic. You know, it's gonna depend on these inflation numbers, depends on where we go with tariffs,

and quite frankly, from an asset allocation point of view, I just find let's stay in the front of the belly, it keeps throwing off good returns for us, and we're gonna stay there. Do I think we're done with the volatility out the yield curve? I think it would be short-sighted to write it off for 2025. I mean, some say treasuries right now

are way more attractive than stocks. Because if you're going to have a slowing economy from here forward, and then you're going to introduce the idea of rate cuts, you can lock some good stuff in right now, relative to equities, which you yourself suggest are still too expensive. So, if you said to me, you know, a holding period is a pretty relevant statistic. If you said to me, gosh, I'm going to own the 10-year treasury at 417 yield, and that's going to be my return with an inflation rate that's going to run over 3%, certainly over

the next few months, that return generation doesn't strike me as exciting in any way, shape, or form. If you said to me, gosh, the ROE on equities over the next year or two, I'd much rather own equities as long as my lens was a bit longer. If you said to me for this year, in our funds, our ETF that we're running, this BINC ETF and some other funds, if we can throw off, which we are, 6.5% to 7% yield, and you said inflation runs mid to high, let's say mid threes in terms of core CPI, if I could throw off six and a half to seven,

I would take that and the vol of that should be reasonably low. Boy, I would take that. If you said to me for the rest of this year, I'm just gonna book six and a half to seven, that to me is a whole lot more attractive than where these equity multiples are today. But if I have a longer term throw, then I'd say, gosh, people will say, what should I

do with my 401k? What should I do with my R? Equities will do their job. You just have to extend the lens a little bit. I just think today it'd be great to buy them at cheaper valuations. Yeah, I hear you. Speaking of, mega caps have corrected, obviously, to cheaper valuations than where they were over some of our conversations.

We have a big week ahead for reporting earnings. What's your outlook? Because you haven't been shy in suggesting that you'd lean in to those and on pullbacks you have been a buyer. Where do you stay now? Correct. So, I mean, I still think this is historic. These companies now, there is, without going through individual names, are getting in trouble. I would argue, if you take the group in aggregate, the ROE they throw off, the equity they buy back, the infrastructure spend that's going to happen in this country around data center, AI, etc.

We could talk about DeepSeq as a reducer a little bit? Listen, I still think those entities are pretty attractive. I would marry to it, or what we are marrying to it, I think financials are interesting, not just in the US, but in Europe. I think healthcare technology is very interesting. The world of how we're going to see data change or data evolve healthcare, I think that is very exciting. But listen, I think the world of data,

technology, productivity, innovation, like I still think in equities, that's where you're supposed to be. You know, with some, like I say, some high quality financials and other assets and a bit more Europe than we're used to in the past. All right, enjoyed it. As always, Rick, thank you.

Rick Reader, BlackRock. We'll see you soon. Thank you. All right, enjoyed it. As always, Rick, thank you. Rick Reader, BlackRock. We'll see you soon. Thank you. All right, check Christina Parts and Nevelis now for a look at the biggest names moving into this close. Hi, Christina. Hi, Scott. Well, Fintech is in focus today.

Shares of Shift4 payments surging after the company reported strong Q1 results and raised its guidance. Some Wall Street firms jumped in on the action with a few analysts today actually upgrading the stock. One called Shift4's quarterly results a breath of fresh air shares are up over 12 percent other fintech names like upstart paypal also making some gains paypal up over two and a half same thing with upstart around two spotify though it's in a bit of a spot it's continuing to

cut costs and posted strong subscriber growth but the music streaming platform guided for second quarter user growth below analysts expectations and that's sending shares down about 2% Scott. Christina thanks back to you in a little bit. Christina parts of Neville as we are just getting started here up next playing some defense Morgan Stanley's Chris to me standing by. He'll tell us where he's finding opportunity right now for his high net worth clients throughout this volatile period in the market.

He'll be here post night next. I welcome back major averages in the green today. S&P is rising for its sixth straight day. My next guest says still time to be defensive though. Joining me now at Post 9 is Chris Toomey of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Welcome back. Thank you. You heard what Rick Reeder had to say.

He's reasonably positive I think on the bigger picture, but suggests equities are still a little too rich right here. You agree with that? Yeah, I think so. I think our view is we're kind little too rich right here. You agree with that? Yeah, I think so. I think our view is we're kind of range bound right now. We're probably at the top of the range. I don't necessarily think a lot of that uncertainty that Rick was talking about has cleared up.

If anything, I think things are getting a little bit worse. And so from our standpoint, I think the market was digesting a lot of this uncertainty. We saw that correction. Naturally, you'd see kind of a 50% retrenchment. The concern is that, you know, normally that means they're gonna test it. From our standpoint, we wouldn't necessarily be buying here.

We'd probably be kind of buying more at the lower ends of these ranges. Yeah, and you anticipate the market having another episode? Yeah, I think so. I mean, look, until we get some real clarity on a couple different issues, I don't think we're really necessarily going to get very bullish on equities. I think we want to see something with regards to a resolution with China as far as kind of what the name of the game is going to be. We want to see probably a more dovish Fed. We want to

see maybe the 10-year dropping below 4% without a recession, which I know Rick was talking about and then we want to see some breadth of earnings. I don't know that any of those things are going to get resolved in the near future. So for that reason, I think we're going to stay defensive. Wow. I mean, you got a lot of things on your list that you want to see. Do you think you can get any number of those paired together in the near future? Not for the near future.

I think, you know, one of the things that we're really concerned about, as Rick mentioned, is looking at the labor market. I think a lot of this is about bringing jobs back to the US here in a situation where the largest employer, Walmart, isn't providing guidance. That's 2.1 million people that now don't know, necessarily, whether they're going to be hiring or firing or what have you.

UPS just laid off 20,000 jobs. You've got Amazon in the news. Those are all major employers in the US. And so if we have some real concerns with the labor market, you know, I think that starts tipping us more into kind of the recession camp. What do I do then? I mean, what are you telling your high net worth clients?

So I mean, look, part of this is going into this knowing that there was gonna be a fair amount of uncertainty. And so we were underweight equities. We continue to remain underweight. I think you wanna stay in the largest, kind of highest quality area that Rick was kind of alluding to. I think there's also opportunity

in other areas of the market. We saw a situation where equities were selling off, bonds were selling off at the same time. Speaks to the benefit with regards to alternatives, whether it's hedge funds, whether it's looking at things like private credit, or just looking into opportunities within the private equity market.

I think the other thing is, is not trying to make this too complex. You saw in the Masters, Rory had a five-foot putt to win the Masters. Sometimes it's about just making that five-foot putt. If you look at the fixed income market right now, Muni's on a tax-equivalent basis. You're looking at sometimes seven to 10% tax equivalent yields. You know, that's pretty attractive right now while you're waiting for this uncertainty to pay off. Because I mean, this period, as I said at the outset,

not just the 100 days in total, but what you alluded to, certain parts of the market, you know, bond yields going up, the dollar not doing what it normally does in periods like this, munis went through their worst day in some 31 years, and I also read stories about private credit finally cracking. Yeah. So address that because our viewers, some of whom surely have access to alternatives through their financial advisor, are hearing that and saying, but I keep hearing other people come on the network

and saying the runway for private credit and alts is long. Yeah, no, look, I think it's one of those things where you need to know what you own and who's managing your exposure there. I think in our sense, you know, there's still opportunity in private credit with the right managers. You don't want to necessarily extend an overweight

within private credit. One of the benefits there is in many cases they underwrite these loans, they're hedged against rising interest rates, so if treasury yields go higher you're somewhat protected and the fact of the matter is is typically the default rates are relatively low and the recovery rates are very high. So if you're well diversified, you're with a very good manager, even if we go through a period of situations where you start to see bankruptcies in that space, you know, you're still at kind of typically a top of the capital stack and a pretty good place. You have the ability to put your clients in privates, which I find interesting

is that you like small caps in relation to private market opportunities, but at the same time I have small caps within the public markets that have been obliterated. Yeah. How do you square that? So I mean, look, I think if you think about it, the private markets changed dramatically over the last five or six years. There's a tremendous amount of liquidity in that market,

and there's a tremendous amount of growth in that market. And a lot of these companies aren't coming public and going into these small cap indices. So if you're a situation where you look at the Russell 2000, kind of the average market cap is about three billion, the median is about one billion. You look at some of these companies in the private markets, they're raising $20 billion at $120 billion market cap. These are some of the great next 20 companies that you're going to be seeing over the next 10 years and clients want to get exposure To that and unfortunately, they're not getting it in the public market. So you have to look to the private market Well, you also have I guess at least now less volatility

When you're talking about private markets relative to these crazy swings that we've seen in the stock market, which have made people Reasonably nauseous over the last, you know, however many weeks. It's good to catch up with you. Thanks for being here Thanks for having me. That's Chris Toomey, excuse me, Morgan Stanley, Private Wealth Management. Coming up next, top technician, Jeff DeGraaff. He breaks down the key levels he's watching next. ["The Daily Show Theme"]

Welcome back. Have some news out of the sports world we want to get to now. Alex Sherman has that for us. Alex? Yeah, SNY, which is the regional sports network that owns the Vets games, is potentially looking for a sale the news should not come as much of a surprise because the ownership structure of that that why it's somewhat bizarre

uh... at the white bill controlled by the maps former owners that if the will part of that lead at the cap family and minority state that that the white are owned by our parent company comcast and charter uh... it doesn't really make much sense that the old owners of the Vets still own the current regional sports network, but it speaks to the potential difficulties of a sale. It is possible that current owner Steve Cohen may be interested in buying the network, but

regional sports networks have not been a great investment. All you need to do is look a few miles south to Manhattan at MSG Networks, which has been flirting with bankruptcy for over a year now, as more and more people cancel cable, cutting the cord on cable, which decreases the overall revenue that comes into the system. So we'll have to see if this ends up being a private equity play or if someone like Steve Cohen or another media company comes to the table and actually strikes the deal. You think it's a

coincidence that as we have this conversation the Mets have the best record in baseball I believe which only makes the timing of this all the more interesting don't you think. Yeah look I mean these deals take a long time you'll need to

come up with a buyer the deal will need to be approved. The idea that something could get done for this season you know may may strain for dulity. But look Steve Cohen is going to be spending a lot of money on

the New York Mets for many years down the road. So you'd have to imagine that the Mets will be a competitive team for years. They just signed Juan Soto to a very long-term record-breaking contract. So they're in it to win. So that may be appealing to a buyer, knowing that the fan base will be there. One other note I should mention is that there's an interesting twist here with Comcast and Charter being minority owners. Comcast actually wanted to steer Yes Network, the owner of the Yankees game.

And when I say steer, I mean place it on a sports gear that would force customers to pay more money to get Yes Network. It would no longer be baked into your standard bundle of cable networks. Yes Network said, hey, we're not going to go for that because you guys don't tier SNY, the MES network. And why don't they tier SNY? Because they're a minority owner. So it's also possible that Comcast and Charter may want to get out of ownership of SNY so

they can move forward with their cable strategy of placing regional sports networks on a more expensive tier of cable so that they can bring down the overall price of cable to stop millions and millions of people from canceling each year. We'll see where it all goes. Alex, thanks for calling in, giving us your insight in the very latest there interesting story of course, certainly in this area and insight in the very latest, their interesting story, of course, certainly in this area, and certainly to the Met fans,

some of whom you all know. All right, and for all your sports news, scan your QR code on your screen and sign up for the CNBC Sport Newsletter. Coming up next, what Renaissance Macros Jeff DeGraff is watching to signal the market's next move. He'll tell you next. Welcome back S&P 500 recouping most of this month's steep losses. Our next guest watching for signs to indicate where this market could be heading next.

Let's bring in Renaissance Macros Jeff DeGraff. Nice to see you. How are you? I'm great. How are you Scott? I'm good. I hope you rounded up all that cattle and now you're ready to talk about the stock market. I'll tell you what, it is giddy up time, right? So I'm here to help.

Is it giddy up time? What time is this in the market? If you think another three or four percent is giddy up, then I think we're okay. But look, I think, you know, there's a couple things that are going on. One, we retraced about 50 percent of the decline. so that's kind of the- natural level that you'd expect to see some type of resistance we've got a few overbought indications very short term

stuff. I actually think we can power through that short that short term overbought condition- partly because- we've actually seen an increase in bearish sentiment- as this market is rallied that's a pretty unusual circumstance most of the time.

Sentiment is driven by return. So we'd actually expect more bulls to come into this, this rally as it goes. But we've actually seen more bears come into it. So that tells me that there's probably still a little bit more fuse left in this thing. But again, I think this is a bear market rally. I think we rallied another three or 4%.

And then I think we've got some struggles ahead of us. I just want to make sure I heard you right. Cause it's a little loud here. You said that you think this is the bear market rally. I do I do I think you know most of our trend work in fact all of our trend work has shifted and it's moved bearish- and it started moving

bearish- you know as long as probably six weeks ago now- and then just continue- part of that is volatility part of that is returns part of those just path of least resistance but I do think it's a bear market rally. Where are we in danger of going back to I do think it's a bear market rally.

Where are we in danger of going back to? You know, with some of the guests I talked to earlier, when you have a 50% retracement like we did, I mean, the danger is you go back and test some things. Are you looking for something like that? Yeah, I think you can go down and retest those lows. Those get really, really tricky. It has a lot to do with, I think, some of these other factors. How does beta perform? What happens to Bitcoin on the way down? Does it stay above the lows? If we can create some of these divergences, and I think

it actually is going to end up being part of a bottoming process, I think that will end up being good news, not bad news. Gold coming off would be helpful as well. So there's a lot of kind of moving parts in these things, and it's hard to get too precise with them, but really divergences are what you look for to help to hammer out some type of bottom. But you're talking about Bitcoin as having some level of correlation, can you expand on that? Yeah, look, it's a risk asset.

I think the notion that it's digital gold has probably been wiped out here because it went down, while gold actually has been rallying over the last three months or so. So the risk asset, risk on, risk off, you can think of beta in the same way. If we can keep Bitcoin from making a new low or undercutting that low, then that's good for the market's health overall. But the correlation's there. And if you look, Bitcoin actually broke out, I think it was now almost two weeks ago got through that Roughly seventy seven thousand level and that was a good indication that the market had a little bit more fuel left in the tank

About mega caps obviously have a big week. We're going to get for the big ones This week. How do those look to you technically? They look exactly the same as the market. They over bought yet on an external basis- they don't have the escape velocity or big momentum that we would look forward to say hey- you know these things are going to go substantially higher I think

you've got a few names like Netflix that look distinctly different from the others- but- yeah they look really I can't differentiate between what's happening there. And what's happening in the market and what I would say probably more

than anything. Is there still some residual bullishness in those names. And that's probably gonna end up being some type of dark cloud over those names as the market tries to ascend. All right, we'll leave it there. I do have one note for you as I say goodbye. Live cattle did hit another record today in the commodities market.

So you should feel pretty good. It's live hogs I care about, but thank you. We'll see you later. We'll see you soon. Thanks, man. It's Jeff DeGraw. Still ahead, Starbucks results coming after the bell. Shares on track for their worst two-month stretch since 08.

The key numbers to watch for next. Coming up next Netflix closing in on eight straight days of gains. Booking Holdings also reporting it over time. We'll have those stories and more in the market zone.

It's coming up next. We're in the closing bell market zone CBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day Netflix on an impressive win streak.

Julia Borson is going to have those details for us plus two reads on the consumer coming out no tea. Kate Rooney on Starbucks contest a brewer on bookings. We will begin with Mike an unknown deal is enough for us right now to keep

us on the hook. Yeah, so I think a week ago a lot of investors needed reminding, look be careful of upside risk to any signs of de-escalation in the tariff front. Now a week later after what the market has done and how this the rhythm has now changed in this market. I think you have a lot more people geared to not just the one you got hinted at, but the ones that are coming after that. So if at $5,000 on the S&P or below, you were pricing in a worst case or something close to it, at $5,500, $5,600, I think you're kind of latching yourself to this idea that we're going to have for the rollbacks. We're still in that zone, you know, heard Jeff DeGraff talking about how we're still in the zone

where even if you were bearish, you were giving this market enough leash to get up to this area, and maybe a little bit ahead of it, you got this low volume levitation, kind of daring the sellers to come out, you know, two weeks ago, I went to sell the reps in this market, nobody's selling this rep right now. So I think it's a it's a net positive, but you have to be aware. We're now again at 20 times earnings and those earnings are going down. You might have a little bit of an air pocket if there's anything that interrupts this idea that we're rolling back the tariffs and all of a sudden the hard data are going to be at risk. Nothing, Julia, seems to upset Netflix, right? Well, that's right. Chairs of Netflix are up one and a half percent going into the close. The stock has now doubled in the past year. And it's on pace for its eighth straight day of gains and ten out of the last eleven sessions has been positive. Now Netflix has not had a negative day since it reported

better than expected first quarter results. That was on April 17th. The company reported growing margins as consumers absorb higher prices with no sign of a consumer pullback due to economic uncertainty. Now, shares are currently up nearly 20% in April. That makes it the S&P's fourth best performer for the month

and it's Netflix's best performing month since May of 2023. Today's move higher comes after CFRA upgraded Netflix yesterday to a strong buy, noting that its recent results reinforced its confidence in Netflix's unique competitive position. Back over to you.

All right, Julia, thanks so much for that, Julia Borgeson. Hey Rooney, how about Starbucks? Scott, well, Starbucks today has a chance to strengthen this turnaround narrative that the company's been talking about with the Coffee Chain reports later today or a couple minutes now here. The street is expecting $8.8 billion in revenue. A beat would make it their second in a row after missing four of the past five quarters

there. Same store sales are going to be in the spotlight as well. Analysts are expecting a 0.8% drop in global comps. Any sort of beat could snap what has been a four straight quarter, so we've seen, of negative momentum. Investors are also going to be watching for traffic in these stores, average ticket numbers, prices there in the report, as well as any color around China, where Starbucks has been facing headwinds and then increased domestic competition.

And while it might not be in the report, analysts I'm sure are gonna be asking the relatively new CEO, Brian Nicol, who joined from Chipotle, about that possible tariff impact and then some of the costs we're gonna see, potentially pressure on coffee costs, but we'll see what comes out in a few minutes here. Scott, back to you. Okay, Rooney, thank you very much.

Contessa Brew is gonna be watching Bookings. What do we need to know? Well, Scott, Bookings shares are barely negative year to date. They're outperforming hotels and cruises and its smaller competitors with its global reach. And Asia travel here is really in focus because it's growing and Booking has roughly 25% exposure there. The real question is going to be what impact tariffs, trade wars and the global economic uncertainty are having on travel appetites and budgets.

The street expects quarterly revenues of more than $4.5 billion and earnings of $17.33. A share adjusted. We'll be watching that. It's had a pretty good week though, where the shares are up about 8% spot. All right, good stuff, Contessa. Thank you, Contessa Brewer. We've got about two and a half minutes to go. It'd be nice to get to Meta Microsoft tomorrow get into the meat of this busy

earnings week yeah absolutely again market craves it we're gonna get GDP we're maybe you're gonna have a little bit of a headline you know kind of headwind if in fact it's an ugly number but yeah I do think that the market wants to seize on these things the reactions to earnings are okay so everybody is sort of truing up their start point for tariff unaffected data and earnings. It seems like it's better than feared, if nothing else. I don't know that it's gonna be all these stocks

go the same direction. Obviously there's gonna be distinctions. There's a little bit of squeasiness happening today. You know, the shift fours and the upstarts of the world are up a lot. So people are getting punished for being a little too cautious in the short term, whether it's relative to earnings or something else.

But I do think it is, it's relevant. This market's acting like it's at least in play that we've stopped short of true bear market dynamics. I don't know. There's a world in which this is like 98 and 2011, when you had a huge plunge in public confidence and people thought awful things were on the way, the market panicked, you had a 19% decline in the S&P,

and then through various policy moves, you recovered from it. So maybe that's the bull case, you can't eliminate it from those set of probabilities. You'll get a lot of Fed speculation this week, to your point GDP, looking ahead to the jobs report, and even whether more bad info is not so terribly received by the market,

because it feels like, well, that just brings the Fed back into the game. Well, look, the bond market is maybe leaning that way. You got the bad confidence numbers. The two-year note yields at a six-month low. It's at 365. We made new lows for the year. So clearly that's tacking in the direction of Fed's going to be active more, you know, sooner than later. And maybe that June, maybe

that does settle in on June. We're too probably close to May to have it mean something. Now, whether that's a silver bullet, that's the bigger question. I mean, it's not necessarily the case that you want the Fed rushing to support an economy that's faltering, but it's better than not having them there if the numbers are gonna get that. You know, we've had two years when really bad soft data was not followed by hard data, leading indicators, yield curve, all that stuff didn't really work.

Can we get so lucky again that the real economy manages to sidestep that kind of thing? Mike, thank you. Mike Santoli, we're going to go green across the board as you see. Nice little move from midday into the end. I'll send it in overtime.