Closing Bell - Closing Bell: 10/19/26

Episode Date: October 19, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to closing bell. Scott Wobner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker break hour begins with today's tech bounce. A much-needed one following the worst week since June. Let's show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. There you go. We're green across the board. NASDAX leading the way because Corweave and the other so-called neoclouds are trying to bounce today, doing a pretty decent job. The core weave now has turned negative, and we'll have to watch that over the final stretch. See if that sort of bleeds through to some of these other areas of the market. semis, they've been under fire too. So, NVIDIA is higher, as is Micron.

We'll watch the entire space. We'll have more on those moves coming up in just a minute. Elsewhere, Apple's new foldable iPhone selling out within hours, even as some questioned the strength of the new 18 model. We'll watch those shares closely too. Cleveland Cliffs, a big winner today off the back of its earnings report. Look at that up 17%. All of that takes us to our talk of the tape,

the state of the AI trade. Whether there really is reason or not to worry. We'll begin there with our Sima Modi. She's tracking several names in the center of that action, and the action, the price action, not looking great. This intraday reversal, Scott, I think is notable. Corrieve unable to hold onto its gains, despite these two upgrades from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs,

where analysts say not every Neocloud is built the same. So sort of trying to distinguish between Corrieve and the rest. We have seen Corey bonds come in a bit. Yields now below 15% at 14.9. That market still sees unsecured debt as a less like, option should Corwee've decided to raise capital. In fact, I'm told don't expect any activity in the high-yield debt market till after the midterms as there is now a higher bar for financing, plus the permitting of so many data centers being a drag. This has semi-analysis put out that

piece, predicting an acceleration in the pace of compute coming online despite ongoing funding concerns. That's providing some relief to chip stocks, separately Evercore ISI, predicting earnings to provide further support to the long-term trade for semiconductors, with expectations that MEDA could now announce an equity sale when it reports on Wednesday. Two equipment names, Texas Instruments and Lamb Research will provide a crucial read on demand and the supply chain for chips on Wednesday. Both stocks, I would point out, are down sharply from their year high, but trying to bounce back today, Scott. All right, pretty good look there.

Seema. Thank you. Seema Modi. Let's bring in now CNBC contributor. Adam Parker of Trivari. It's good to have you on. So one of the benefits of selling the research that you do to the big hedge fund clients that you do, you get to talk to them on a regular basis. So what are they telling you about what they think is happening in the market now? I think it's not just the hedge funds, the asset managers long always too. I mean, I think people think the correlation between oil and rates has been an issue. And so I think the short term was all about if oil can come down. And today you get a weird one with Brentstown, TIs.

and the tenure isn't backing up. But I think people were focused on that because it seems like that's gonna limit the price of earnings a little bit. So you need oil to kind of come in, the rates come in. I think the second thing, there was definitely some more concern about midterms

in the last couple weeks. And could that create an environment that's less regulatory friendly for the data center build out, the AI trade? But I think when you take a step back and you really think through it, earning growth is gonna be really strong. I don't know anybody, including me,

who says I love how Micron X since they printed. on the other hand, if you take a step back, I think they might have produced the best quarter ever produced in the history of humankind by a manufacturing company. I mean, how many companies ever done 50 billion in revenue at 86% gross margin makes something in a factory? Like zero. What if that's as good as it gets?

What if that's from, you know, double ordering, triple ordering, and all that kind of stuff. So it looks great today, but tomorrow. Yeah, there's no question what's in the prices of collapse in their earnings in a four or five, six quarters from now. If not, it's LBO ball around. When you talk to these people, are they, you know, voicing concern that they're cracks forming in this trade or what? Because the market feels like it's trying to go through some things and figure that out.

It's really polarized, right? If you're a value PM or if you've been underweight this complex, you love this. You're finally kind of, you know, you were wrong when it killed you on the way up and you're kind of loving this a little bit more since July 1. And if you're a growth person, you're loaded to the gills with the AIA complex and you're just trying to find uncorrelated alpha to help you. you know, kind of absorb some of the down days. I'm probably two-thirds the way to the growth guy myself. Like I think this is a long-winded multi-year trade for compute and power. We're still three and a half years into an eight to ten-year cycle. Financing is going to be an issue for some companies. So sure, you see that with Oracle or Corweaver or others where they have a lot of debt

and a big backlog that has to come to fruition. But I'm not sure why Micron won't print four, or five, six quarters in a row like this. And the amount of money they're going to make is so great. I don't think I should pay the same normalized earnings for a company with net debt as I should for one with 30% of their market cap in cash. So they'll get credit for the balance sheet if they can keep delivering. And in the meantime, I think you're going to see pretty good earnings results from most of the companies here over the next 10 days. So then you're not concerned.

It doesn't sound like really at all with the actual fundamental case of where we are. A few years into an eight to 10 year cycle. So those are early innings. I'm not broadly concerned that we have a shortage of compute and a shortage of power for the next several years. Obviously not all stocks go on a street line. and there'll be some nuances to winners and losers. But I want to own at these prices, Micron, Nvidia, and Broadcom for next two to three years, based on what I know now,

and this associated semi-cap equipment. I want to own all those. I think they're going to outperform the market over a 12, 18, and 24-month time frame. And a three-month window, of course, things can change. I think memory will act a little different. So we'll select semi-capped just because as you get to 28 and 29, when more capacities coming online, you have to see how fast earnings degrade. But I think you're still want to be long.

semiconductors and long power associated with the trade for a while. If you had your strategist hat on like you used to wear, would you be looking out for signs that you think earnings are as great as they are now would be peaking in nine to 12 months? And would that color your view of what you would advise people to do in the market now? Yeah, I mean, years ago, I thought everything was so-called second derivative, like rate of change. Now, I think last March we wrote and wrote saying maybe it's just so much about level, like the actual level of growth. I mean, the SEP is supposed to grow 28% earnings this year. I think the bottom up numbers are 20 next year.

Let's say there's a little bit upside this year and maybe around that next year. I don't think the market's going to be pro-rata 30% cheaper in a year. Like the earnings are going to grow faster than the multiple at the market level. Tech is driving a lot of the growth. So I think tech will participate in the uptrade. So sure, there'll be fits and starts. But I think tech will outperform. I think the market will be up in any kind of six, 12-month view.

But like Goldman today is talking about 36% earnings growth for this year. So robust by, I mean, amazing by any amount, right? But that slows to 11% according to them in 27. So if they're right, the market will go lower, the street's got 20 next year. And so what they're saying is a huge miss in next year's numbers. And if that, in order to go from 36, think about the shape, 36 this year, to get 11 next year, it's probably like flat or down, you know, at some point, to. get the growth. So I think the market won't like that. I think you need to have 20% plus

next year and a belief it's growing in 28 as well to get the market to power through. It sounds to me like they're much more barris than consensus on next year's numbers. I don't have any visibility in that. I think they're going to grow fast in that because I don't think you've seen a lot of companies even manifest productivity on the earnings front related to AI. So all we're focused on is the companies with meaningful AI revenue. But what about the other side of it, which is you start seeing companies run systems in parallel, fire white call folks who aren't adding value, started benefiting and return. Like, you're just going to start seeing that in 27, 28, and 29. So that's really the bulk case for equities is you transition

from the AI revenue to the AI cost and you get, you know, above long-term trend earnings for the rest of the decade. And I assign a chunky probability to that, actually. I don't even think it's a matter of them being bearish. I just think it's sort of reality of the law of large numbers. Like when you have earnings growth to the degree that you have it now and you think you're going continue to have it, and the spending levels to the amount that you have them now and to what you think is going to continue. Eventually, it peaks. It peaks. No, sure. But what if demand remains so robust and then you have the return on all of the spending? Doesn't that counteract, even if their earnings growth starts to moderate or decline a little bit? I mean, there's a couple,

there's a lot to unpack here, right? I mean, if you grow mid-30s and then 11, I think the market We'll view that as too much of a del acceleration. If you grow 30 and then 22, 23 and then 20, I think people will be looking out a year from now thinking there's still pretty strong growth. I still have, you know, a lot of spending, the data center and AI trade. I'm short power. I'm short compute. There's other things to own. And I think earnings can grow. Remember, the top 100 U.S. equities are not the broader economy. They can gain share from government spending, non-U.S. spending, private company spending, et cetera. That's what they've done. They can raise, I mean, Musk can raise, you know, a lot of capital at a low cost. I mean,

So I don't think this narrative that these companies are tapped out and borrowing is anywhere near true. I think everyone suspects medical access. I mean, Google peeled off what 80B last quarter at six in a quarter three-year-ups. Well, I don't think the market's worried about those guys. But that's what those companies are driving a chunk of the spending, right? So I still think that's why earnings will grow. That's why you want to own in Micron and Nvidia. I mean, they're going to benefit.

All right. Let's bring in some more voices to the conversation. CNBC contributors. High Tower, Stephanie Link and Capital Area Planning Groups, Malcolm Ether, it's good to see guys as well. So, Steph, you know, how are you feeling about what's been taking place over the last, you know, week-ish? Well, I mean, last week was not great for tech, and we know tech was down 7 percent, but the equal weight S&P 500 was actually up 50 basis points. We did see a rotation. We did see a prognate. The big question in my mind is does that continue? And I think both

tech and the other sectors can do well because the economy is strong, because earnings are going to be, they're not going to be 11% next year. No way. It's going to be easily 20% in my mind. And by the way, even if they did 11%, that's still above the long-term average of earnings growth, which is usually 8 to 10%. But there's so much momentum within the AI trade.

The hyperscalers are not changing their tune in terms of spend. If you ask me what I'm worried the most about from META on Wednesday is that we have a 240 billion KAPX number for next year up from 135 to 145. So I'm going to watch out for that, but I like meta for other reasons, of course. Amazon, Andy Jassy, he likens this whole AI trend back to the early days of AWS. And he has said on record, this is not a hunch. They're not spending $220 billion this year alone on a hunch. So to me, I think this is totally normal to see a pause in technology.

I think you want to be more selective in some semiconductors. You know I like Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron. I love their balance sheets. versus Corweave and Oracle. But I do think you're going to see other good stuff coming from other sectors. So I'm hopeful that we will continue to see a broadening out. I guess I would push back a little on the notion of the broadening out and how what we saw last week in that regard is viewed, I think, by you as a positive, where I could say, I don't think it's bullish at all that staples, health care and utilities. represent your broadening, especially at a time where, you know, yields were going down at the same time.

Well, financials, utilities, and comm services were also up. They weren't up as much as energy, staples, and health care, but they were up. And that's really very encouraging to me. So I'm not giving up on tech, but I'm also not giving up on what I heard from the banks. I mean, listen to what Jamie Diamond said just today at the Wall Street Journal Leadership Institute. He's talking about the economy booming. This is the same. same CEO who talked about a hurricane three years ago. So also, well, he's also talking about inflation and the war. So it's not, but he's also talking about better growth. And that's, that's something from him. He has, he has had a negative tone for the last several years. And now

he's kind of switched. Sure, there are things to worry about in terms of rates and energy and inflation and that sort of thing. Of course, we're all worried about that stuff. But he's even admitting and all the other big five banks beyond JP Morgan said the same thing. Economy good, consumer good, credit quality, really good. Malcolm, how do you see it? Yeah, I think that I'm in alignment with Stephanie and Adam that we're probably talking about a deceleration from 37% earnings growth for the year down to whatever the number is, 20%, 11%, 15%, somewhere very short of 37% is going to have a meaningful impact on this market. So aside from Adam's strange head and shoulders structure he was trying to give us with that.

his arms just now. I think that the number, the trend is probably going to go down to the right, and that is going to cause the market to freak out. So I think that what we're up against right now is an earnings period where this might represent as good as it gets when these companies start to talk about having to borrow more to continue the spend that they've been spending, where we've already seen since the summertime, a market that flips out at the idea of additional borrowing, because as the companies are bringing these bonds to market, they are still getting issuances taken up by the bigger money managers, but they're also having to increase the rates that they're offering. They're also having to bake in better covenants, all those kinds

of things that tell you that it's probably not as good as it was as recently as March, April time. And so that alone is a reason why I think investors should be a little bit skittish here, not necessarily be trying to time this thing and say, I'm going to step in and start to buy some of these drawdowns across the board. I wouldn't step in and buy like a NASDAQ per se right here, I'd wait until we start to get earnings from the big tech companies first. But if you see a name or two that's beaten up that you really like that you've had your eye on, sure, go ahead and take a shot there. I just think that earnings is going to tell us a ton more than it usually does because it's such a tenuous situation right now. But there's no indication that spending is going to

slow anytime soon. And you heard that from the AWS CFO. There's no indication that spending is going to slow anytime soon. But there's also, there is an index. that the market doesn't like it anymore. So where we used to reward these companies for the increase. Is that the case? Just look at what's happening with semis, right? So semis have had a very hard time in the last couple of weeks. What's that based on? What has changed in the trade as far as semis are concerned over the last couple of weeks? The questions now are related to, is this the end? You just pose the question, I think it was to Adam, you know, to what end? Like the companies are telling a compelling story, but what if that's not enough? And I think that's what

we're up against with this earnings period, maybe the market decides we're spending is not a good thing anymore, and they decide that this is as good as it's going to get. And I think that is the thing that we can't afford to have earnings fall off the cliff by 15 percent. Earnings growth fall off a cliff by 15 percent next year. I guess part of my point is this feels just like every other acute growth scare. This one just happens to be related to the dominant theme that has gotten the market to all-time highs. Look, I hear your concern. I hear Malcolm's point that historically desolating revenue wasn't great, that a peak could mean the multiple is going to contract.

I feel like every cycle has got its nuances and differences. I think this time earnings growth is going to be strong enough to offset some multiple contraction. I think it's likely that we end up in a shortage in certain areas for a while. I think the risk is to the upside for hyperscalor cap-backs, as Steph pointed out, with meta. and I think the semiconductors will do well because they're kind of the direct beneficiaries for a while. It also depends on your time frame. I don't know, I'm not very good at kind of two-week price action

going down on semis and then waiting until NASDAQ company's report. So I'm waiting three days to buy. I'm not good at that, and I'll defer to these guys. If Malcolm is good at that, then give your money to happen. But we already had multiple compression, right? We already saw that. We've had a lot all year. And that's been...

Like 23 to 19? 18? I don't want to put words and step up. But I think what she and I were saying is, that if the deceleration does go from 37 to 11, that's wildly bearers. That's way more negative than what's in the price. If it goes from low to mid-30s or 37 down to mid-20s, it's still enough absolute growth that it can absorb a lot of multiple contraction without people thinking it's falling off the cliff. Malcolm used the phrase fall off the cliff.

If people start really thinking it's a growth scare like that, then of course this is the end and that's where we're headed. I think it's really unlikely you're going to hear that from any part of the AI complex that's major during this earning season. And frankly, in next earning season either. I think we just have shortages across the board. So I don't think you're going to see earnings fall off a cliff. And I think the growth will be strong enough and that we'll end up at higher prices for the associated stocks. The problem, Steph, I guess, is that just higher interest rates have complicated things. And the Fed reintroducing itself into the situation by hiking rates already and likely again, it's just a reintroduction that people weren't necessarily counting on at the

beginning of the year. For sure. And I think if you stay at five or if you even go higher, which is not my call, but you have switchers. There's no question about it. I have advisors asking me all the time. What should they do in fixed income? I mean, fixed income last month was down, you know, like 7%. That's a lot. And bonds have not been a good return this year, but maybe that is starting to look interesting. So I absolutely am watching yields too. But here's the thing that I'm thinking the most about. I'm thinking that we're going to see an acceleration, maybe not dramatic in earnings, but in ROIs, because that's what got the MAG-7s, people got excited about them from last quarter, because you had AWS accelerate to 37 percent, you had Azure to 43, you had Google

Cloud 82. If you start to see better ROIs, and maybe just good earnings, not phenomenal earnings, that might be just enough because it's saying that all this spend is leading to better results. So that's what's on my life. I mean, I think that's keeping the Bulls bullish, right? Yeah, you know, that the story is, as Adam said, still early innings and we're just sort of reaping the rewards of all the money that is being spent. Last one to you, Malcolm, when Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the next sell-off could be time to add risk, we advise investors to be ready for either a very rapid reconciliation or a slower bleed into November. Because in our view, that will be the time to add risk rather than shun it. Do you disagree with that?

I don't disagree with it, but I don't know necessarily that it's going to be a playing of all the old hits. I don't know that all the companies that Stephanie just mentioned that have had that enormous cloud growth are going to be the ones that actually lead us out of the next downshift. I think that maybe this is where we make the jump, instead of trying to figure out which are the companies that have grown a tremendous amount from investing the way that they have into the data centers and everything else, Maybe we're moving to where the companies that have been able to integrate AI into themselves for the last 24 months, 18 months, 24 months, that time period, where's the growth going to come from, where's the return on investment going to come from, those companies, and that's where you see the market start to re-accelerate into 2027. All right, we leave it there. Malcolm, thanks, Steph, to you as well, and of course, Adam here on set. We'll see everybody soon. We're getting a fresh read on demand for the new iPhone. Mackenzie Seagallis is following that story for us.

Hey Scott. So Apple's duo goes on sale in stores on Friday, but the standing question is whether there will actually be any phones available for customers who didn't pre-order. Now, retail employees have reportedly been warning customers not to come in expecting walk in stock. I've asked Apple specifically how much inventory, if any, will be available without a pre-order. But the company isn't weighing in beyond its statement on Friday that pre-order demand has been nothing short of extraordinary. Online supply is already extremely. extremely tight. Morgan Stanley saying that duo wait times hit roughly 14 weeks on the first day of pre-orders the longest that it has recorded for any iPhone in a decade and says that it's saying no indication that Apple's increased production plans despite those weights. J.P. Morgan's saying that Wall Street now expects Apple to ship roughly 8 to 9 million duos this calendar year down from about 10 million because of those supply constraints. And Key Bank, it's more cautious saying that those pre-order wait times alone aren't enough to prove sustainable demand.

It wants to see Apple actually increased production and says that some sales may simply be existing Pro Max customers trading up to the much more expensive duo. Scott? Well, I guess we'll see. Mack, thanks, Mackenzie Seagallis. Let's send it now to Pippa Stevens. She's watching the stocks that are moving into the close.

Hey, Pips. Hey, Scott. So starting here with Cleveland Cliffs because those shares are up 16% after the steelmaker beat on earnings, the revenue did come up light. the company more than doubled as adjusted EBITDA quarter over quarter while also posting its first quarterly profit in more than two years and lifting its full-year guidance. Energy Energy in the red as Jeffrey's cuts its target to 131 down from 160. The firm did reiterate its buy ratings, saying the stock is trading at pre-AI boom free cash flow yields,

but said while they still expect data center deals this year and next year, their confidence is lower than before. The company also declaring a dividend of 190 per share on an $1.90 per share on an $1.00. annualized basis. Finally, Intel is snapping a three-day losing streak. J.P. Morgan upgrading the stock to neutral, saying although the turnaround will take years, management execution has been solid and the firm's confidence is building while AI will continue to be a tailwind, those shares up better than 3%. Scott? All right. She a little bit. Pipple Stevens, thank you. Just getting started. Coming up next. Anthropic taking a big step today to try and ease public anxiety over the impact of AI, Kate Rooney, following the money force there. We're live at the news.

York Stock Exchange. You're watching closing bell. CNBC. All right, we're back as polling reveals the majority of Americans remain broadly concerned about the development of AI, Anthropic, taking a step today to try and soothe some of that public anxiety. The company says it will donate 5% of shares to what it calls a public benefit fund, money that will go towards addressing labor market impacts among other key initiatives. Our Kate Rooney, following that story, joins us now with more. What do we know here? Hey, Scott. Well, this is an unusual part of Anthropics' upcoming.

coming mega IPO, the AI giant, as you mentioned, setting aside 5% of equity for a new charitable fund. So it could be worth at least $50 billion, closer to $100 billion, if this company debuts closer to $2 trillion, which is at the higher end of what we've been hearing. Anthropic does say it plans to contribute more equity as the company grows. They note a 2% increase for this public fund on every 50% jump evaluation. The company did say, did say, rather, that it won't be used for lobbying or political. donations. The move does come amid public backlash, Scott. We have seen it with data centers. We've talked about it on air. Some of the negative polling around this technology and the IPO is

also about to create a record windfall for its founders and employees. So this could be a way to start to build up some goodwill with the public here, Anthropics saying some of the funds will go directly towards addressing the technology's economic consequences. The fund could support workers displaced by AI, for example. Anthropics move is already facing some backlash, though, some including Elon Musk, questioning. why Anthropic would retain control of this money versus giving it away directly. Elon Musk did choose to go directly. He says he's going to donate one SpaceX share to every American child next year, Scott.

Okay, Rooney. Thank you very much. We're joined now by Plexo Capital's Lotony, also a CNBC contributor and an early Anthropic investor. Welcome back. It's nice to see you. Thanks for having me. So what's your reaction to this fund? Yeah, you know, it's, I think it's an important step.

to begin to address what many expect will be a disruption. And albeit some are saying momentarily, others are saying it's not clear. But there is a lot of angst, anxiety, and concern about a lot of people. I think we've seen it in the data center of buildout protests, but it's really a reflection of people just not really understanding what AI will do. So I think it's an important step. Obviously, Elon makes a good point. why not just give it away and instead of taking control of it. But I do think it's an important

development to take, you know, pay attention to. By saying he makes a good point, you think they should do that? Do you not think they should retain control of the money? I don't know, Scott. You know, this is a tough one. We're somewhat in uncharted territory. We've never quite seen donations of this size from a company for the public good. We've seen, you know, a staff of foundations all the way back. I worked at eBay. Pierre Omidyar set aside some shares for a foundation, but it was never at this scale, and we never had it in response to what can be a complete, potentially disruption of the types of jobs that people are accustomed to. So, you know, it's hard to say. We're an uncharted territory. I think it's a very positive step. And whether or not,

Anthropic retains control or whether or not is a complete donation as Elon is doing with his shares for children, it's still a good thing. What do you think it says, if nothing else, about where the company views itself in terms of public opinion on the issue itself of this deep unease about AI in so many different forms? Yeah, you know, we've reached a point where models are becoming so powerful that we do need to start. thinking about what types of controls are in place. And, you know, I think there's a couple of ways to do this. There's the approach that this announcement is making, which is more of a philanthropic approach to being able to potentially maybe even offer some type of job training. And then there's the other approach where Chanthropic was talking about as well, which is how are we going to put guardrails around these models because they're so powerful. And so this proposal, you know,

has a piece on the philanthropic side. We've got a proposal on the establishment of maybe it's some type of FINRA type equivalent for context because people can understand that to be able to put the guardrails there. But, you know, I think what's really interesting is, you know, how does the company strike this balance between protecting the public and preserving innovation? And that's the thing that's very hard to get right. You know, I think it's difficult to look at the counterfactual when you start to think about, oh, but what if, what if they did this? Because we just don't know with the lack of examples that we have in this new era that we're entering.

Speaking of the guardrails, I mean, there are those reports that they've been, you know, quietly marketing the lawmakers, a framework for some degree of regulation. isn't that the very definition of regulatory capture that some had worried about to begin with? Sure, we want regulation and we're up for it, but we want to help write the regulations. Well, there's no doubt that it would put the company in a very enviable position to have the ability to understand what that legislation is going to look like to establish those guardrails. because clearly Anthropic has been moving in that direction. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. Remember, when we've talked in the past about why we decided to invest in Anthropic, it largely was because of this emphasis around thinking about the constitutional AI approach

and having those guardrails in place. So, you know, again, we're in somewhat of uncharted territory. Look, I think you could make the argument on both sides. that does have the optics of regulatory capture. But then on the other side, I think it's important for not only Anthropic and Dario, but the peers as well for the companies and those leaders to also have a perspective and a point of view. There's no monopoly on making a proposal. And the question is just going to be, how does it come together and whose proposal does it most look like?

I got to go. But lastly, I mean, what do you make of what's been happening in the market over the last week or so. Are you feeling any anxiety or caution over where this story currently is? And are you hearing from others who might be? Because clearly the market's trying to figure out something. Yeah, we've lost a little bit of momentum, you know, quite honestly. And I think there's so many different things converging right now. The core weave story and looking at their cost of capital and the effect that interest rates is having, you know, it's a different business model than the hyperscalers, but nonetheless, that's one component. I think with the upcoming earnings,

things that we want to see are indications that the demand is still there. I believe it's still there. But second, we need to look at the payback, especially from the hypers. It's one thing which Microsoft is talking about about being able to monetize it quickly. The bigger question is, how long is it going to take to pay back? And then finally, again, it's just, you know, what does the cost of capital look like? And if that, cost increase is going to slow down the ability for these companies to be able to deploy the compute necessary. What impact might that have if the demand is there, but the compute's not there? What would that do to the revenue growth? Appreciate it, as always. We'll see you

soon. Lo, thanks. Thanks for having me. All right, Plexo's Lo, Tony. Coming up, how AI is reshaping the role of women in the workforce, exclusive new reporting from our very own Steve Leesman when we come back. We have some breaking news out of Washington, the president, making some remarks. Amon Javras has that for us. Hi, Amin. Yeah, Scott, that's right. The president talking to reporters at the White House just a few moments ago, and he was asked about that report from the Wall Street Journal this morning,

which said that Vladimir Putin of Russia is proposing a three-way summit to decide the fate of the Russia-Ukraine war. But that three-way summit would involve Russia, the United States, and China, not reportedly Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky. The president was asked about that. He said he would go, but he put some conditions around it. Here's what he said. We would schedule a meeting based on the denuclearization,

and that's a very positive thing for the world. So I would do it if they want to have a, I just heard about it. If they'd like to have it, I think it would be held in China. He just left here. If president, she wants to have it, I'd have it. I'm sure we'd talk about other things like trade, too, but yeah, I would do that. So the president's saying such a summit might happen in China because President Xi was most recently here in the United States. And he said he would attend even if Zelensky did not.

He was asked specifically about that in a follow-up question, Scott. And he said, well, it doesn't matter if other people are not there. We can have that meeting. We can have a sit down there. Clearly, that's not going to sit well with the Ukrainian side who don't want to see their country divided up in a summit that they're not partaking in, Scott. Yeah. Amen, thanks. That's Amin-Jabbers in Washington.

Every major technological revolution has reshaped the role of women in the workforce. Today, AI is poised to become that next great turning point. Steve Leesman is here now with more. Hey, Steve. Hey, Scott, our AI Economy series continues with a special look at how women could be affected by the new technology. We look back at how technological change from the past could inform the future. Our online documentary begins looking at women who lost work from the automatic telephone switch. That was one of the most massive

Cappex investments at the time. Here's the part that looks at the washing machine and household appliance that played a role in allowing millions of women to enter the workforce asking the question, how did the economy put them all to work? The washing machine. It used to be the girl who worked

the hardest got her clothes the cleanest. Oh, she was tireless. Dubbed by economists engines of liberation, washing machines and other appliances dramatically reduce the time women spent on unpaid housework. She knows that confining hours around the wash tub are things of past. That meant time could be reallocated to a paycheck outside the home.

But something happened, seemingly at random. One, the very entry of women into the workforce meant tasks once done at home moved into the paid economy, introducing new demand for the work. services like childcare and food preparation. Two, as American businesses grew, they needed more people to handle the paperwork, from payroll to customer accounts. And three, the number of female high school graduates more than tripled between 1920 and 1940. That expanded their opportunities as new technologies reshaped the job market, and it produced new jobs in education. Comparison offers hope for the age of AI that people who lose work from the advent of a new

technology find work, in part because of the advent of the new technology itself. Trouble is, by all accounts, the appearance of new jobs when women enter the workforce in the 60s and 70s was mostly random, and there's no guarantee that displaced workers today will be as lucky, either landing new jobs or finding good paying work. You can see the full documentary and written piece on CNBC.com. My personal takeaway from the research, there's no perfect historical analog, but there will likely be job losses as well as new opportunities. What's different this time, more women are more highly educated and professional and managerial jobs. That offers some protection compared to past innovations.

But then again, Scott, the whole promise and threat from AI is that it's going to move up the human value chain. All right, Steve. Thank you. That's our Steve Leesman. We're tracking the biggest movers into the close as we always do, closing bell back into. We're about 10 from the bell. Let's get back to Pippa Stevens for the stock she's watching. Hey, Pippa. Hey, Scott, SpaceX is advancing ahead of tomorrow's third quarter earnings after the market closes.

The report will come just one day before Tesla's Q3 financial results on Wednesday, as Wall Street continues to speculate about a possible combination of the two Musk-owned companies. And Pallantier is also in the green after announcing a partnership with Knox Systems, a federal cloud service to accelerate deployment of software within U.S. federal government environments, the stock is up some 4.5% on the news. Scott? Yep, Stevens, thank you very much. Coming up next, we'll tell you what has shares of Amazon rallying today. That and much more inside the market zone, which is next. We're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and I Capital, Shanali Bassick,

here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Oliver Renick, standing by, live from the Civo global markets in Chicago. And K. Rooney is following a big call on Amazon, it is sending those shares higher as well. Michael, go with you. Not exactly the highest conviction move today, but because the NASDAQ's green and some of the chips are bouncing, I suppose people will take it. Yeah, for sure. I mean, I don't think we necessarily settled the big picture today, but it was a net positive, I think, that you did not see a continuation of the two-day urgent, very aggressive selling that we saw in the hardest hit parts of the AI trade Thursday and Friday. So you maybe got a little bit of a circuit breaker hit in

their high-eield credit spreads. They calmed down just a little bit, but did not reverse most of last year's expansion. So a similar kind of reversal, but only partially of last week's risk-aversion trade. So again, I think that everybody can agree that semis are overdone on the downside in the very short term. The big debate is whether, you know, you can really give them the benefit of the doubt again as we go into earning season. And, you know, presumably everybody's going to have positive things to say about cap-back. and the whole supply chain, but that hasn't been enough in the last few months to get the group going. Well, meta's looming, especially large. Speaking of earnings this Wednesday, right, comes at a pretty

important time. Without a doubt, an important time, all of the valuation discount that we were able to point to in recent months has mostly been kind of evaporated in this move higher in the stock. So you have, I think, almost you had the excitement over Muse and now the backlash to Muse. So I do think it's interesting how they're going to characterize things. I think there's a sense out there that they may just narrow the range for their own CAPEX. So we'll see what's built into the stock. The reactions to the early reporters across different industries haven't necessarily been really all that positive.

So we'll see if that shifts. All right. Seeing less than five in overtime. Mike Sintelholy look forward to that. Let's go to Chicago, Oliver Renick. What are you watching? One of the most popular international markets this year, Scott, the Brazil ETF, EWZ.

Price is little changed today as the country's election narrows a week ahead of final results, but options traders are very active in placing some big bets. Options volume is more than five times the 30-day average, and what had been very heavy, bullish bias in trading after the fund's 20% pop to start the month has turned to much more balanced flows. More puts were actually bought than calls today, but there was even more puts selling, in particular at the 34 and 36 strikes expiring this month, which gives traders room to absorb a big reversal and fade further upside. For Bulls, the most heavily bought call was the 46th strike expiring November 20th, which needs a 20% further rally to work, Scott.

Al La Brennan, thank you very much for that. Kate Rooney, what's got Amazon on the move today? Scott, well, it's this Morgan Stanley upgrade. The firm arguing that Amazon is a clear winner right now in AI. They name it a top pick today, up in the firm's price target as well. They took it to 350, from 335. That's about 30% upside from where it's trading into the close today. Analyst at Morgan Stanley call out accelerating growth at AWS. They argue the runway is underappreciated by investors. They also call out its bedrock AI platform as part of that where Amazon offers this access of a variety of different AI models. They talk about the robotics driven efficiencies in logistics as well. Shopping has been one open question for investors in Amazon. Meta's Muse has been gaining

popularity. Some have worried that it's going to take share from Amazon, which has actually blocked news and other AI agents from its e-commerce site. Morgan Stanley, though, calls out a very loyal user base. They talk about holiday shopping season, say that's really going to be a test for Amazon coming up. Shares have not been spared from the recent AI jitter. Stock was down more than four and a half percent last week, but very much clawing back those losses today. It's almost more than five percent higher now into the close. Okay, thanks. Kate Rooney, Shannali Bassick, sitting in my left. All right, so you raise your targets a little bit. Everyone came in bullish on Monday, just a little bit.

Yeah, I mean, are you feeling a little bit better that this was, that's overdone, the fears, or what do you think? I think it's going to be bifurcated from here. If you look at a chart of operating margins in the AI trade, what you really see there, and you have to look past growth to operating now, right? We have the cost of borrowing higher. It's really only the chip designers and the hyperscalers with a lot of flexibility in that margin. And I do think that the market is now sussing that out. When you look at the Nero clouds, it was always a higher risk proposition, not just because of the margins,

but also because their maturity wall is much shorter, five to six years rather than the hyperscalers closer to 12 years. I know, but are we making too much of that? As you said, we knew it from the beginning. Now interest rates have risen, and I guess that's made the focus a little more acute? The truth is different. I think this earning season is going to be interesting for a couple of reasons. You might have seen the news this morning on N-scale, for example. every time you see a deal, people's feelings change, right? And same with Corwee. Yes, the margin is

thinner, but let's see what they say in terms of what it means for them to protect those margins headed into the cycle and what their pipeline could look like. There's a lot of noise out there anyway. It's like this happens as earning season's about to start, we're, you know, two and a half weeks or whatever from the midterms too. I mean, this isn't a lot for the market to try and figure out? It's a lot of nervousness and what we haven't really heard from the central bank, excited to hear from them in just really days from now because they might pause, right? It's about a coin toss in our minds.

And if you look at even one more hike in December, then the question is, to me at least, can the central bank really engineer a softer landing when we know that some of the AI KAPX buildout here might be constrained. This is at a time where the cost of the AI buildout is also rising so that margin pressure gets more profound. Gosh, we're talking about soft landings again? We're not worried about recession risk here, but again, this is a fine line that the central bank has to engineer here as growth begins to slow down. Fine line and a new Fed, a new chair trying to engineer that fine line. It's good to see as always. Shannali Basick, right here. You can hear the clapping because they're

going to ring the bell. Dow's looking negative. He's going to fight it. We're a pretty decent day, especially for the stocks that suffered the worst last week. Those semiconductors getting a nice bounce while the NASDAQ's up more than 1%. In overtime, and I'll see you tomorrow.