Closing Bell - Closing Bell 10/21/25

Episode Date: October 21, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian, thank you very much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner live from Post 9 right here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with the Dow heading for uncharted territory. The first close ever above 47,000. It was above that level earlier, now almost right there. Take a look. 46-984. We're going to follow it over this final stretch because it is moving and it is moving ever closer to that big number. We're also going to count you down to Netflix earnings. They're coming in OT tonight. It's a closely watch. report, which is why we will have a big debate about it coming up. Take a look at the majors here. The industrials and consumer discretionary stocks are leading the way today. Overall, it's a mixed picture. I get the Dow bouquet. It may not tell the biggest story about the market, but to mainstream America, it is a sign of where this market is currently as it tries to close in on that new level. Apple, big help to the Dow today. It approaches $4 trillion in market cap for the first time ever, already extending its record highs today as well. Amazon is a big winner, and that takes us back to the move in consumer discretionary names today.

It is a part of that, and that 3% move is helping as well. Alphabet shares the opposite direction. OpenAI announcing a new browser today. We'll follow that. We'll have a report on it as well coming up. But we start with our talk of the tape, this resilient rally, pushing even higher today. The question is, how high? Let's welcome in, Anastasia Amaroso, Partners Group Chief Investment Strategist with me, as you see,

along with Ed Yardinney of Yardini research. Ed, I'll go to you first. What is this resiliency about in this market that the Dow is closing in, as we said, on 47,000 for the very first time ever? Well, I think it's based on the resiliency of the economy. The economy has been growing solidly for the past few years, even though it's been

lots of trepidation about a recession. And the resilience of the economy is showing up in the resilience of earnings, which is translating into higher stock prices. I think it's that's straightforward. It's funny, Anastasia, it sounds simple, but maybe simple as best because it's how Rick Reeder laid it out yesterday on this show. Ed nails it. Economy, earnings, rate cuts, 47K, and, again, an S&P 500 that's been hitting its own records too.

That's right. I mean, this rally seems unstoppable because even when we worry about the fact that the bar has been reset higher, we still keep beating that elevated bar. I mean, case in point earnings expectations had actually been revised higher going into this earnings. and especially for financials, and yet financials had a rock-solid quarter that they announced last week. And then we got about 86% of the companies that are beating a little bit less than they typically do. But nevertheless, we're looking for the ninth consecutive quarter of solid earnings growth. And then, you know, we get the headlines every now and again about trade. But I think the market is really interpreting this, that maybe President Trump may or may not meet with President Xi.

So I think there's some discounting going on there. And in the meantime, Scott, for me, one of the biggest cattle is that I don't think is priced in yet. is the race story. It is working its way slowly through the economy. It has not been fully delivered, but the fact that we have short-term rates heading lower and long-term rates heading lower, that's supportive for a variety of asset classes. Yes, that show yields, in fact. You can show twos and tens. You can show the whole curve, for that matter. Right. Because the tenure was below 4% earlier. That has been, Ed, a big story as well. Rates finally coming down. Yeah, absolutely. They were kind of stuck in.

above 4.5%. Then over the past few weeks, they've come down to 4%. And they were kind of providing some drama suspense by kind of hanging around it for. But now it looks like the bond market is anticipating that we'll solidly drop below 4, maybe down to 3 and 3.75% to kind of test that level. The Fed is going to cut rates. I guess we'll have to see how the CPI plays out. But everybody expects it to be up 3% on a year-over-year basis, and everybody thinks that's going to be a transitory phenomenon that we probably would have been at 2% by now if it wasn't for the tariffs. And so I think the bond market sort of discounting that as well. We'll add FundStraughts Tom Lee into the conversation, too. He's called in. He's a CNBC

contributor, of course. Tom, I wanted to hear from you as we close in on this milestone. As I said, earnings, economy, rate cuts, even those who say, valuation i don't love it they fall back on the former which is why they believe that this move isn't over i'm i'm in that camp to scott i think that you know we're entering the sort of critical last 10 weeks of the year at a time when not only earnings are good but we have a fed that's going to be in an easing cycle um i think there's going to be some good news eventually on the shutdown. And then we know that there was already a bit of de-leveraging that took place about 10 days ago because of that VIX spike and the headlines. And so there's going to be, I think,

a setup for a chase into year-end. So I think all of this means that the S&P can close at least at 7,000. I actually think that's a low number by the end of the year. You still do. So you must be a big believer then that the mega-cap earnings that we're going to really get into next week are going to deliver. That's right. Because I'm getting the sense that AI visibility has actually improved. I think that there's actually payback companies they're seeing. And as they start to think about 2026, that's a priority for spend. So visibility should be improving.

And then we have potentially lower interest rates next year, which is going to put some easing burdens on households and consumers. And as you know, the ISM's been below 50 for 32 months. I mean, that eventually gets back above 50 at a time when we're seeing on-shoring. So, I mean, there's plenty of catalysts as people think about the next 12 months. Yeah, Tom, I appreciate you calling in. Just wanted to get your thoughts, again, as we watch these markets and every move that we make, we'll track it certainly over the next 55 or so minutes.

So, Anastase, I mean, these credit concerns that we were consumed with last week. You don't think they're systemic. I don't. Nor, by the way, do most of the people who've come on the network, including David Solomon, of Goldman Sachs, who was on Swackbox earlier. today and, you know, pushing past that is key to the market continuing to climb. That's right. I mean, this is almost like last week's story, but I think what happened last week is people got caught up in the headlines, which is, you know, maybe this is going to spread. Maybe this

means direct lending that's wrapped up. But actually, when you look at some of those specific concerns, they don't have anything to do with direct lending. Some of that played out in the bank lending sector. Some of it played out in the broadly syndicated market. Some of it was off balance sheet financing. But when I look at sort of the systemic implications, Scott, for things like private credit, it's really about where the coverage ratios are today and they have dropped, they have improved, but guess what, if the Fed does deliver the 75 basis points all in this year, that actually further improves those coverage ratios closer to that two times threshold. So I actually think this is a better backdrop that we have seen for some

of those. The other thing I would say there's a big distinction in direct lending between whether you have a private equity sponsor involved or whether you don't. And if you do have a PE sponsor involved, default rates and private credit tended to be lower than if you didn't have one. So all of those things to me suggest that direct lending is still very much on solid footing and there's nothing systemic there to extrapolate from last week. We'll come back to this in a minute. Bemos Brian Belski has joined us now on the phone as well because you, after lowering your S&P target for some of the, you know, turbulence that we had to work our way through within the last few weeks, you bumped it back up. Where are you now? Are you at 7,000 on the S&P? Yeah, we're out, Scott. Thank you so much for having us. We actually bumped it up the first

week in June following what we thought was some of the signposts that we needed to see. And part of the big thing that we wanted to see Scott, we wanted to see companies start to provide guidance again, number one. And like we said in April, we thought that earnings were going to be, were revised too lower, and earnings have certainly come back. So we did revise our back to Our original target is $6,700, and then we upped our number to $7,000, which was our bull case all along that we've been at really for a year. So we think the bull market is very much alive in terms of the cyclical side of things. It's all part of what our broader call is, quite frankly,

with respect to the 25-year secular bull market that we've been on since 2009. Now, in terms of the gyrations in the market, there was a great discussion with respect to private credit. I still think that's still looming over. We've had the gold correction. But I think what's happening is you're having investors rotate back into what we've been talking about, more broader performance, becoming more cyclical. And that's why on a day like today, you're seeing this great performance from the Dow, which is actually more cyclical on a price-weighted index. And we think from a longer-term perspective, this is very healthy for the market. Yeah, I mean, it's Apple is obviously playing a big role, which is part of the Dow.

Brian, thanks. Just wanted to get your thoughts here as we, again, talk about a lofty number and a place that Dow Jones and does. average has never closed above, whether it does or not, we'll see over the next 50 minutes. Ed, I come back to you because you didn't give me anything yet on this credit concern that really has been hanging over the market. Where does it sort of rank on your worry meter at this point? Well, I think Jamie's diamond is right that there's probably more than one cockroach, and so far I think we've had three or four, but I don't think we've got an infestation. I think we're fine on the credit side. The credit markets have really changed in a dramatic fashion.

There's a lot of guardrails or a lot of shock absorbers. When money is lost in the private credit markets, for example, it's really a haircut to a rate of return rather than a cut in the capital of a bank that has to stop lending. So we can have these minor credit crises pop up here and there. as we saw back in 2023 when three banks went under. But all in all, the credit markets held up, and I think that'll be the case now. Scott, let me just add one more point, and that is we probably are going to get a Santa Claus rally, even though it seems to have already come kind of early. November and December, over the past 10 years, we've seen a four percentage point increase

in the performance, the year-to-day performance of the market. And I think that may very well still be ahead of us. would get us to $7,000 by year end, and $7,700 by the end of next year, in my opinion. And tell him to go back up the chimney, Ed, and come back in a couple months. He's a little early. We'll see what happens. Ed, thanks. Anastasia, we'll leave it there. Tom and Brian, of course, thanks to you as well. Let's turn to Netflix because the big earnings report is coming in OT. That's when this company reports. Julia Borsden, tell us what to watch for most of all. Well, Scott, powered by K-pop Demon Hunters and other his analysts expect Netflix's

revenue to grow 17% and acceleration from the 16% growth last quarter, with EPS expected to grow 29%. Now, with no disclosures about the number of subscribers that Netflix has, investors are closely watching trends around viewer engagement after concerns last quarter and now some optimism about the impact of K-pop Demon Hunters Netflix's most watched movie. Analysts are also looking for an update on the company's new ad platform and upcoming ad partnership with Amazon and we'll have to see if Netflix comments on generative AI and potential copyright infringement. And finally, we'll see what co-CEO's Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters say about Warner Brothers discovery now being up for sale. Netflix shares are pretty much flat since

its last earnings report in July, but they are up over 60% in the past year and 69% of analysts have a buy rating on the stock. Scott? All right, Julia, good setup for us as we look ahead to this earnings report. Let's bring in a shareholder, Bill Baruch of Blue Line Capital and Alex Kanchowitz of big technology. They're both, as you know, CNBC contributors. Bill Baruch, you first. Most important for you as the shareholder here, money on the line is what? Yeah, I think coming through with that revenue growth is obviously going to be important. That's 17%. You want to see some margin improvement. But I also think it would be interesting to hear what they have the same by AI, helping to trim the content budget, 5 to 10%,

improve customer personalization. I think that's all very important. And deepening the customer engagement, I think that's going to show up and really help the stock kind of respond to this nice technical floor that it's building out. So that's what I'm looking to most. Yeah, Alex, this new wrinkle that Julia referenced that we've been talking about throughout this day, this potential of a Warner Brothers tie up. Should they do it? I went through all the possibilities here about why Netflix shouldn't do it. It's very profitable. It's leading in a number of categories. It's the one streamer that stands out. And I still couldn't quite get to the point

where I would say, don't go for it. I'm a believer in going for the win. If Netflix was to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, that would be going for the win. The thing that it will risk, if it doesn't make this deal, is someone else deciding that they wanna roll up WBD and then basically having a competing streaming service.

If Netflix does this and it gets through regulatory hurdles, then Netflix basically becomes the streamer. nobody else. And so I think for that reason, it's worth doing. All right, you go for the gold when you have an opportunity to get it. Bill Baruch, why has the stock been stagnant for the last several months? If we back out the chart here, what was a great run has gone sideways. It's retested that level in May, in middle of May, when it accelerated higher. I think it got a little ahead of itself.

And this revenue ramp, if it can continue to show this trend where each quarter is improving that revenue growth, I think we'll see some good follow-through. I don't think there's a reason why it can't get back above. of 1,300. So I expect a good report to give us at least a 5% move back to those highs by the end of the week. And yeah, I think that's what we're really looking to see and just how they deliver these earnings. Again, AI utilization. How is that going to come into and help those margins? That content is there. It's being delivered. So I think that the guidance is supposed to be good, is expected to be good. And that could be something that could really help be a

tailwind. However, all that content coming out could weigh on some of the margin guidance and in the fourth quarter. All right, from Netflix to Alphabet. Those shares are falling today. Open AI announcing a new browser. It is big news. It's had an impact on the stock today. Mackenzie Sagalos is following that story and joins us now with more, Mac. So Scott, OpenAI has launched ChatGBTBT Atlas. It is a new web browser that puts AI front and center. Instead of toggling between tabs and a chatbot, Atlas actually brings chatGBT directly into the browsing experience. There's personalized browser memories, and you can highlight text to get summaries, ask follow-up questions, and get help with tasks like booking a trip, shopping, or even drafting smarter replies in your inbox.

And there's also deeper automation for paid users. In agent mode, chatDB can actually click around the web for you, opening tabs, filling out forms, and taking action on your behalf. Now, for users, that means less switching. You're browsing and chatting, but crucially, doing it all in one place. And overall, for OpenAI, it's a direct shot at Google. If people prefer Atlas to Chrome, that threatens Google's dominance in both browsers and search and removes a key reason to keep going back to Google at all. Although I will say this, Scott, that Alphabet shares, they're pairing their losses.

That might be because it's a limited rollout at this stage, only on Mac OS, not mobile or PCs just yet. Yeah, knee-jerk reaction then a little reality sets in. McKenzie, thank you. Mackenzie Segalis, back to the guys. Bill Baruch, your take. I think, I'm not surprised to see this really bounced back. was a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction. We don't know enough yet, but AI-assisted search has proven to be a tailwind for Google's profitability rather than a headwind. And I think we don't

know enough about this rollout yet to really say it's going to hinder or really hurt Google's profitability, Alphabet's profitability. So I think it's just news for right now. I mean, really at the end of the day, Alphabet has continued to muscle through every headwind we've seen this year and it's had a terrific year. And I expect the stock to finish strong. I expect all these Mac 7 stocks to really beat leaders in the fourth quarter. So I think all this AI tailwind, all this AOI news, I think is really going to be a tail win for all of these names. AK, how concerned should they be? Well, the next generation browser to me has just become a graveyard of ambitious product companies. We've seen many companies try to build an improvement

on the set of browsers that we have today. Many have tried. None have succeeded. I think Open AI is a great product company. It really has a chance of making this work. But the One thing you have to see is that Google has the incumbent browser in Chrome, and it has the AI developers. And so this could be similar to like a Facebook Snapchat situation where everything that OpenAI pushes forward, Google just puts right into Chrome. I think they have the ability to do it. They've shown they're willing to take these product swings with AI mode in search. And that being said, I think OpenAI did show great vision with the launch of Atlas or at least the introduction of Atlas. This is, this general of AI is going to change the way we interact with the web.

and that's going to both be on websites and the way we browse. So I would definitely recommend checking out that presentation because it really is a preview of what's to come. Last but not least, the stock I've mentioned a few times already, it is Apple getting closer to $4 trillion in market cap, all because of optimism around the new iPhone. Steve Kovac joins us with that story, which is becoming a big story here.

Yeah, that's right. It's almost as if Apple has sneakily gone up 30% over the last three months or so, and that means we're getting more bullish commentary. this morning from the analyst community. Goldman Sachs, they were raising their price target to $279 from $266, which is only a few dollars more than it's at right now. Also raising their EPS estimate for the upcoming earnings next week by 3% all, of course, on that iPhone 17 strength. Keep in mind, Scott, though, those earnings are only going to reflect the first

few days of iPhone 17 sales. Meantime, you have Wells Fargo changing their price target to 290 from 245. That was below where it's already treading at right now. again, all of that is on the iPhone 17 strength. And whilst farther ago was looking even further out to the AI launch next year. That's that big Siri update, Scott, we keep talking about. They say, quote, sentiment remains driven by AI strategy. So it's not just the iPhone. It's not just tariffs.

They got to nail AI next year. And they still see potential in Apple Intelligence Update to Siri because it could offer more personal and a different experience than what you get from Chat, GPT, and the others. But Apple's going to have to prove itself next year after the failure to do so this year. As for earnings, you've got to be focused on that December guidance, the China growth we've been seeing hints of, and any hints that the AI update to Siri is on track amid all of those executive departures, Scott. All right, Steve Kovac, thank you very much for all of that for us. Bill, the shareholder, is this optimism justified?

I think it certainly is. And, you know, as he noted, there's a 30% sneakily. Maybe for some, but certainly not for us. I was right there at the desk with you, middle of the summer, July, pounding the table that you have to buy Apple when it's unloved. And that's exactly what we did. It's been right there in our top three, top four holdings after increasing an overweight position. I think this is really that, you know, that game-winning drive over the next nine months here, Apple delivering on the iPhone 17, you're seeing the demand. And now you're going to see what their AI rollout really has.

I think over this next nine months or so, I think Apple, I mean, this is. This is a big breakout here. 285 near term, 305. Once it gets above, if it gets above 305, I mean, obviously, you need a bigger, broader market tailwinds. But I think this is just the beginning of something really great. All right, a game-winning drive after a few fumbles. AK, last point to you, optimism justified or not? Well, you have to look at the story. It's really a tale of two stories, to be honest about Apple. You know, we saw for a couple of years, there were quarters of slow iPhone growth, even iPhone revenue decline. Now we've seen a quarter of iPhone growth into double digits in the most recent

quarter. We're looking at potential double digit growth with the iPhone 17. And the company's finally showing some vision. It's releasing new things. The iPhone air, which I don't expect to be a really big hit, but it was something new, was released recently. And then the iPhone fold or whatever they're going to call it potentially coming out next year. The one thing I'll tell you about people using folding phones is they always look happy. And I think the fact that Apple is going to potentially release a phone like that is a big deal. So you go from this moment, this story where Apple really couldn't get the iPhone to grow to potentially consecutive years of growth on the back of what's happening now with the 17 and the new models to come. And so if you're looking for the optimistic story around Apple, you can definitely find it there.

Yeah, I felt good with that Motorola razor. I remember those days. AK, thank you, Bill Baruch. We'll talk to you soon. We're just getting started here on closing bell. Coming up next, GM shares in overdrive today. We'll break down what's fueling that big leg higher. and we're on the watch for the Dow's first ever close about 47,000. We're about eight points away. Don't go anywhere.

We're live with the New York Stock Exchange, and you're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. All right, welcome back. What a move for General Motors today following that company's earning report. Phil O'Bow joins us now with what has this stock just on fire today, Phil. Scott called us three at three. Three things that happened today that investors weren't expecting. Certainly many on Wall Street weren't expecting. First of all, they beat the street and beat it by a wide margin for the third quarter. Then they turn around and they raise their guidance for the full year in terms of what to expect. of this year. And then on the conference call, they did themselves even one better. They said,

you know what? Next year is going to be more profitable than this year. Ryan Brinkman at J.P. Morgan took it all in and said the overall impression is of a company firing on all cylinders within the context of those factors that management can control. One thing they can control, the pricing of their vehicles. $51,000 is the average transaction price they saw in the third quarter. By the way, that's higher than the industry overall. It doesn't mean that tariffs didn't have. an impact, they certainly did. North American EBIT margin, 6.2% in the third quarter. A year ago, it was 9.7%. But General Motors, realizing where the market is, has been emphasizing U.S. production, internal combustion engine vehicle production, and pulling back on EVs,

not abandoning EVs, but pulling back. And to that extent, the company said today it will stop production of the bright drop electric vehicle, the van. It's like an Amazon-type van for short-haul cargo delivery. They've been making that over the last couple of years. You may not even realize it, Scott, but they finally said, you know what? We're pulling the plug on it. Well, I didn't realize it. So you're correct. Phil, thanks. Phil Lebo with that big move in GM today. Let's send it to Christina Parts of Nevelis now for a look at the other big names moving into the close. Christina. Well, mine is about what else Beyond Meets? soaring right now. Look at that, about 142% continuing its rally from yesterday when the stock

surged at 127% after it was added to the Roundhill meme stock ETF. Today's surge, though, really comes after Beyond Meat announced a deal with Walmart to expand distribution to more U.S. stores. The stock, though, has been trending downward since 2021, but today, over the last two days, it has been up 144%, I should say. Haliburton shares also jumping, not the same like Beyond meet, but jump in about 11 percent, almost 12 percent after beating Q3 revenue estimates. Halliburton's CEO looking to maximize value in North America. By what else, prioritizing returns, tech leadership, and also working with leading operators. The oil and gas tech services company is trending about 7 percent lower this year so far.

Lastly, RTX popping just about 8 percent at this point after it also posted earnings that beat profit and revenue estimates, the aerospace and defense company raising its full-year earnings outlet. RTX citing its ability to weather the impact of tariffs and other macro uncertainty as reasons for its growth. And the market likes its shares are up almost 8%. Sure it does. We'll come back to in a bit. Christina, thanks. Christina parts of Nevelos. Still ahead. It's not just Netflix reporting in OT, what to watch for from Texas Instruments numbers. Top of the hour. They come out. The bell's coming right back. Coming up next, the NBA season tipping off tonight, and with it comes a new era for the league's media rights.

The big money details ahead of tonight's doubleheader. We're back on the bell after this break. And I don't know how much. All right. If that doesn't get you fired up, I don't know what the problem is. The NBA is back, and for the first time in more than 20 years, it is back on NBC. The new season tipping off tonight on the network in Peacock. A couple of great games, by the way. CNBC sports reporter Alex Sherman is here with more on how the league's playbook is changing.

I mean, the players are different, obviously. I'm ready for Michael, Magic, and Larry to run out after hearing that music. Yeah, right. The one thing that won't be different is that, John Tesh round ball rock song. I literally just got done interviewing John Tesh for the CNBC Sport podcast, which you can hear Thursday morning, wherever you get podcasts, plug for that. All right. So maybe we can talk about that in a second, but let's turn to the cost of media rights first, which are insanely expensive these days for the marquee sports, mainly basketball

in the NFL. This isn't really new. Sports rights have been going up and up for decades as more people watch sports, especially relative to everything else that's on TV. Of course, sports are watch live. So the advertising value is higher than anything else on TV. And they've maintained their popularity, even as Instagram and YouTube and TikTok have eaten away at viewership. So as a good example for this, let's take Amazon because Amazon is a brand new partner for the NBA this season. And it also owns an NFL package Thursday night football. So back of the envelope. Let's break down the numbers here. Amazon is spending $1.8 billion for 67 regular season NBA games, six play-in tournament games, and one-third of the first and second round

playoff games. The average playoff series is about five and a half games, so let's call that 22 playoff games. So overall, 95 games, $1.8 billion. That's about $19 million a game. If you turn to football, they spend about a billion dollars per year for 15 Thursday night football games. Amazon also has separate deals for a Black Friday game and a wild card game. Just for simplicity, let's ignore that. It's about $67 million a game for the NFL. So the average NFL game costs about three and a half times more for Amazon than the NBA. If you take a look at TV ratings, the average football game is more like seven times an average NBA game,

a blended average of regular season and playoff NBA games. That's why like three weeks ago, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell told me he wants to escalate the renewal for NFL rights because he sees the delta there between the cost of NFL games and the ratings. And he says, we're leaving money on the table here. We could be making even more money than we already are. We'll see if it ends up, you know, to what degree it becomes profitable and when for the networks who are putting up all this cash. But that's why they invented the lost leader term to begin with.

100%. Because this is where the action is quite figuratively and literally in live sports. And these days for the traditional media companies, If you don't own big sports, or at least marginal sports, I don't really know what you own because you own a lot of programming that is either commoditized programming or maybe you can get it on a streaming service, but live sports is what's keeping the cable bundle alive. And look, everyone likes to downplay the cable bundle with reason. Tens of millions of people have canceled cable over the past decade or so, but 65 million

in U.S. households still subscribe to some sort of bundle of linear networks. That's still a very big business for the media companies. Give me more on this Tesh thing you were just talking about? Yeah, so the coolest thing I thought about the Tesh interview is that you heard him play that live recording in the intro. Well, one of the things John told me was that he actually kind of put it to a vote online and wanted to get fan feedback. Should I re-record the theme or use the original?

The re-recording, he said, got like 2% of the vote and 98% said use the original. So this is very much a nostalgia play for people old enough to remember the glory days of the NBA on NBC and the Chicago Bulls. Iconic. That's the word that just comes to my mind because that's what it is. That's what it was and it will always be. Thank you. Thanks, go. All right, that's Alex Sherman.

By the way, for more CNBC sports coverage, don't miss my videocast with monumental sports and entertainment CEO Ted Leonis. It's available this Thursday in the CNBC Sport newsletter. Up next, we track the biggest movers into the close today. Tina's back with that. What's at the top of your list? Well, we have precious metals really taking a beating in their worst session in over a decade. Plus, one industrial giant surges on a big earnings beat while a tobacco company stock goes up in smoke despite solid results. Those names next. Sector Sword is sponsored by Sector Spider ETFs.

sector spider ETFs visit us on the web at sector spiders.com we're 15 from the bell back to Christina for the stocks that she is watching tell us please gold and silver miners really getting hammered today as gold suffers its worst single day's decline since june 2013 with silver tumbling right alongside it this comes just days after gold hit an all-time high on Monday of $4,381. Mining stocks, though, are feeling the pain. You can see it on your screen. Cove mining, Hekla mining, Neumont, all trading sharply lower. Hekla down about 11% as an example. Switching gears to 3M.

Shares are jumping about 7% right now after the company beat quarterly profit and revenue expectations also raised its full-year outlook. CEO Bill Brown credited what he calls the 3M excellence model for driving stronger organic sale growth. The stock is on pace for its best day since August 2021. Next, we have Philip Morris. Shares are down roughly 4, almost 5% right now, even though the tobacco giant topped revenue estimates for the third quarter. The issue, the company didn't raise the high end of its 2025 earnings guidance. That said, Philip Morris continues to point to its zinc nicotine pouches as a major growth engine going forward. Finally, something fun.

shares of six flag popping about 16 or 15% right now after Jana partners announced it has a 9% stake in the theme park operator, ticker, fun, alongside Travis Kelsey and other investors. Kelsey is a self-described theme park super fan for those that didn't know. Six Flags, though, is struggling so far this year. Down around 49%. Scott, are you a superfan? Rollercoasters. A superfan? Eh, eh, eh. Depends. On the mood. What do you do on the weekends? Bye. Bye.

Christina Parts and Evolos. Up next, a run-down. What to watch for from Netflix and Texas Instruments? We're back in the Market Zone next. We are now in the closing-bell market zone. CNBC, Senior Markets, Commentator, Mike Santoli, BNY's Alicia Levine, Vios Advisors, Michael Bapis, all here to break down these crucial final moments of the trading day, Plus, Christina Partsenevolos with a preview of Texas instruments, those numbers coming out in OT.

Julia Borson, of course, with a final look at what to watch for from Netflix results. We're waiting for those as well. To the panel first, your takeaway from today, Michael's. Yeah, I mean, you give the market credit for holding on to a 1% gain yesterday. Also, the market's a little broader in its strength than the indexes would suggest. So there has been this rotation out of leaders into lagging, kind of rebalancing flows. Goldman Sachs called it unwindy, as people. people are kind of pulling money out of their heavy bets and into some lighter ones.

So I think that all makes sense. The little mini volatility fever has broken for the moment. Beyond that, we're still kind of, you know, at least till further notice, trapped in this little range here. And I want to see more extensive reactions to earnings to know for getting to sell the news reflex. 47,000, Alicia, if nothing else is representative of a resilient market. Resilient market, resilient economy, despite all the fears. and earnings that are being revised upwards, and the Fed is cutting into this.

So we did have our VAL scare. It took 3% off the top pretty quickly, and then ultimately what came through is that corporates are resilient, and whatever fears there were wasn't going to rebound further. In the end, the tariff conversation is quickly absorbed by markets

to not be what's going to undo this. What are you telling your clients? Yeah, look, I mean, we're seeing the markets in a huge juggling act right now. I mean, they're trying to figure out the CPI numbers that are coming in that may or may not be true, that they're met with a lot of skepticism because of the government shut down. You're seeing a lot of companies come in with strong earnings, and they become really resilient. Again, for our clients, we tell them, you know, keep a balanced portfolio.

Alternators are very important. I just, I mean, I think right now, this continues to grow as we see the markets grow. And something that's really, I think, people are talking about, but not enough is this whole AI thing. I mean, this could be. Not enough. People aren't talking about it enough. This could be the global revolution of anything like infrastructure, like railroads. Like, I mean, I think this is the next step of technology that is just in the first or second inning.

Well, people do talk about that, and they say earnings and the economy, as you said, and rate cuts, and you put all of those things on the list, and it's kind of hard to bet against all that, even if you have some concerns around the edges. So it's good there are concerns on the edges because you don't want a straight, rocket ship up. You want a conversation. You want a two-way conversation in the market. We had that 10 days ago. But ultimately, if earnings come in better than expected, and if the tech stocks really pull out the AI trade is intact, you have your next leg higher from here. I agree with Mike. You really have to get through that 6,800 level on the S&P to really be convinced that there's

another leg here. That's on the technical side. But on the fundamental side, I think we get there. about the bar for tech earnings this season? I think it's relatively high because you didn't get the usual downgrades of expectations through the quarter. The margin of beat is almost definitely going to be lower within big tech than it has been. And I think to me it's much more about how the stocks have set up. I like that there's been dispersion within the Mag 7. You've got three stocks that are more or less flatish year to date, Amazon, Apple, Tesla. And then you got four that are up 30 plus percent. The market keeps kind of shuffling around. You've had Amazon down, Apple up all week. So I think that's all healthy. But I do think the flip side is a resilient

market that all we got was a 3% pullback where you had these kind of dual challenges to the bulk case means we didn't really get any kind of a reset lower and some kind of a flush. So maybe it's just got to happen sector by sector and you see some of the speculative stuff move today on the downside. Well, because maybe we jumped to conclusions a little bit on some of the credit-related and loan issues that were out there, and we assumed that there aren't just a few cockroaches, as Jamie Diamond said, that there must be more, and maybe we'll still hear about more. But it doesn't rise to the level of great concern that it's going to upset the story.

Right, and you have such strong earnings coming in so far, and the KAPX spending that's going on right now, there's so much money on the sidelines. A lot of these technology companies we're talking about, NIA companies are talking about, they don't want to be left behind. They need to stay ahead of the game, and the capics that they're putting in to the spending for the growth may affect earnings a little bit. But at this point, when you have such strong earnings and decent economic numbers, you know, you might see a pullback, but I just see, you know, six to 12 months, there's a lot of positives in the markets. Is that your favorite part of the market, the mega caps? You just urge people to stay there? Look, I think. In size? We have a total, you know, allocation package, but as far as the equity place.

What does that look like? It looks like about 40 to 45% equities, 30 to 40% fixed income, and 25% to 35% alternative investments. Because at the end of the day, alternative investments are what protect you in a down market. And at some point it's going to come. When it comes, obviously none of us know. And people that are looking for safe, interest, low volatility, absolute returns, that's a key component to it. Well, people are questioning whether part of that is safe, in quotes. Are you?

I'm not. No. You don't have any issue, any concerns around credit? Credit, people are talking about a lot. I just, I feel like it's... Well, that's part of alternatives. I feel like it's the market neutrals, the uncorrelated asset classes. I feel like a lot of the low, low volatility, 4% to 6% vol, looking for a 5% to 7% coupon.

That's what we're really focused on. You might see credit spreads, but that's going to affect the whole market if credit, if credit, if there's a lot of credit concerns that continue. All right, big earnings, Texas Instruments, Netflix, obviously. Christina, TXI. What's up? Yeah, it's a tough setup. Texas is really caught in a margin squeeze of its own making, building inventory and expanding factories.

Well, unfortunately, the analog recovery just keeps stalling. And that's why gross margins have really collapsed from 70% just three years ago to roughly 58%. Now, anything lower tonight, or tonight in the next 15 minutes, then 57% really could cause a sell-off in the stock. The CFO, keep in mind, also told the city conference just in September that automotive, which is a third of its revenue, is really lagging, even though, even as four other end-marking.

markets show growth, and that's further adding pressure, so just some weakness in auto. And then there's also the tariff war causing customers to hold off on building inventory until the last second. And then you've got China as an overhang. It represents roughly 19% of revenue, but Beijing is investigating foreign chipmakers like Texas instruments as of September for anti-dumping practices, which could further restrict market access for Texas. All of these reasons I just listed are why we saw the stock drop roughly 10.5%

since early September, Scott. Yeah, Christina, thank. TXN, of course, the ticker symbol for that as we wait for the earnings. Netflix as well, Julia. Well, Scott, with Netflix no longer reporting subscriber numbers, analysts are looking for signs of what will drive Netflix's next leg of growth and justify the stock 61% gains in the past year and the fact that 69% of analysts have a buy rating on the stock. Key areas in focus. Any guidance on top line growth as well as on margins, engaged, which is essential for driving ad revenue and AI, how much it could drive profitability or threaten intellectual property rights. Plus, we'll see what Netflix says about its potential

interest in Warner Brothers Discovery, since that company put itself up on the block just this morning. Scott? All right, Julia, thanks. We shall see, and we will be watching, Alicia, other areas of the market, outside of tech. What do you like the best? So we like cyclicals here. We'd still like financials. We think the yield curve is deepening here. to carry the trade longer, so we like that as well. We are fully allocated internationally as well to emerging markets and developed international. And from an equity standpoint? But also fixed income as well. Because Rick Reeder was here yesterday, both loves both, more than more

in credit than in equities in both Europe and emerging markets. Yeah, so we have full allocation to international, to global fixed income as well as emerging market debt. We like, we do have an Overweight to U.S. versus rest of world simply because the innovation is here, and this is where we want to be. In a year where the dollar weakens by 11 or 12 percent, yes, rest of world outperforms. So we think this is a one-year thing. New high for the Dow, Mike, as we say. You know, we always say, well, the S&P is obviously more representative of the market at large. I mean, obviously you have the mega cap thing.

But nonetheless, you know, you look up, as I said at the very top of our program, almost an hour ago, mainstream America looks at the Dow, and they see the big number, and they say to themselves, wow, this is a resilient stock market. It's doing well. We're making money, and we feel good. Yeah, you recognized sort of the increments and the magnitude. And, by the way, it's also pretty well-tracked, like the equal-weighted S&P. So essentially, the U.S. stock market outside of the giants of the NASDAQ 100, you know, the Dow has represented it reasonably well at this point. It's a little upside, and I've got to say.

They should probably ask for some of those stocks like Goldman to do a split. But for now, I think everything is, you know, is pretty well in order. And as I said, kind of rotation in here. Small caps again weak and below 25-00 on the rest of 2000. Not really significant yet, but keep an eye on whether that was just kind of a lun tire that's not substantial. We will. Mike, thank you. Alisa and Michael, thanks to you as well.

This bell is going to ring, and it's going to ring in a new high for the Dow Jones Industrial Lab. It's not going to get a close above 40. 47,000, but it is impressive nonetheless. That does it for us and overtime.