Closing Bell - Closing Bell 10/9/25

Episode Date: October 9, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. Scott Wapner Live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with high expectations for stocks and why 7,000 for the S&P might be conservative before year end. That is the call today from Fund Struts, Tom Lee. You will hear from him on this program momentarily. In the meantime, we'll show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation, a steadily deteriorating kind of trading day, really.

Green to start, red now, dows down about two-thirds of 1% S&P negative. So is the NASDAQ. Most sectors are red, including tech, though, Nvidia and meta. Well, they've been positive throughout the session. They still are. We'll watch them both. Prior show was talking about Ferrari today. Robert Frank just was getting dented big time. Weaker than expected outlook means the stock is now tracking for its worst day ever. It's down 15%. We'll follow that. And how about shares of lows today on pace for their ninth straight down day? Just a brutal stretch. Home Depot not doing all that better. not quite the same losing streak, but nonetheless, it's one to watch. It does take us to our talk

of the tape. The rallies rode ahead. I mentioned that call from Tom Lee. He does join us now. He's a CNBC contributor. It's good to have you back. Welcome. Great to see you, Scott. So what do you make of just how the market's trading today? We've had a nice run. It's given a little bit back. Maybe some concerns are out there about the strength of the economy, the labor market, some other stuff. What do you see? Well, I think markets are trying to balance a few things because we are navigating a little blind because of the government shutdown, but we also know that the real powerful driver of the equity market and the economy has been AI, which is not affected by this slowdown. So I think stocks are in this sort of zigzag pattern, but given we're in that seasonal period from October to year end, and we think the stock, the S&P, can get to at least 7,000, it has been, you know, and we've seen it this week,

these pullbacks get bought. So we could be weak today, and I think we could rally tomorrow. And in general, I'd still be bullish into your end. Are we whistling past the graveyard, Tom, on anything that could be concerning to you? I see a story right in front of me from Axios mentioning a Moody's analysis. 22 states are in recession or close to it. There was that Carlisle independent survey the other day showing the labor market is much worse than expected. You know, gold's been going up.

Some suggest that's derisking from the U.S. AI bubble. You mentioned the shutdown. Are we complacent towards any significant risks that we might be missing? Well, I do think markets are less skeptical than they were in April and even in August and September. and we can see this in both positioning and AIAI. So I think it is fair to say that the markets have priced in more good news. So like the things you flagged can be worrisome.

But what I'd point out is that I think the AI story is actually strengthening, Scott. From our conversations with both companies and investors, it actually seems like the payback for AI, you know, whether it's applications or services or companies' actual ROI. actually is improved in the last quarter or so. So I think that's what's helping actually create demand for spending. So I think we may be underestimating the sort of profit creation coming from AI. And I think that's why there's still legs to that story. But you're right. On balance, you know, the data is mixed and we don't really know because we don't have government data.

Yeah. You gave our producers this line that you still think it's the quote, most hated rally. And I've asked you about this every time you've been on with me. I feel like now that's a little bit far-fetched to suggest that this is still the most hated rally. I don't find anybody who comes on, certainly not on the programs that I do, that is overly negative about anything. The prevailing view, even from those who were cautious before, like the stock market's going higher. Now, it may end poorly way down the road, but it's going higher. So how can you suggest that it's still so hated?

Well, you know, there's this thing where people can make like a backhanded compliment, like they might say something positive at the market, but they're really bearish because when I hear people say, oh, well, this reminds me in 1999 or, you know, they're ringing the bell on the top of AI stocks. They are maybe acknowledging that the market is strong, but then they're trying to mark the end of that rally. And I think, you know, for me, who was an analyst in the 90s, you know, people forget that Cisco in September 98 was almost a 60 PE when the Fed made its first cut in nine months and then its PE went to 200. Invidia is that stock today and it's trading it around 27 times forward earnings. I mean, it's got a lower PE than Walmart and Costco, which are like 35 to almost 50 times. So I just think a lot of good news has been accepted by markets, but I don't think it's necessarily priced in into markets. Tom, give me a sec. I'm going to come back to you in a moment. I got some breaking news. I want to get to Amon Javers with. Damon, what are we learning here?

Scott, we've got a strongly worded new post here from Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who is writing on social media a strong note of support for the government of Argentina and for Argentine financial markets, but the technical details here might be worth looking at. What the Treasury Secretary writes here is that Argentina faces a moment of acute illiquidity.

The international community, including the IMF, is unified behind Argentina and its prudent fiscal strategy, but only the United States can act swiftly and act we will. The Treasury Secretary goes on to say, to that end, today we have directly purchased Argentine pesos. Additionally, we have finalized a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina's central bank. The U.S. Treasury is prepared immediately to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted to provide stability to market.

So a strong voice of support for Argentina and its financial markets here from the Secretary of Treasury. But I want to point out to you, Scott, that the Treasury Secretary doesn't in this post say how many Argentine pesos the U.S. government has purchased here. And he also talks about a $20 billion currency swap, which has been finalized, a framework for that swap, which has been finalized. So that's different from executing a swap that is finalizing a plan. And he says that Treasury is prepared immediately to take whatever exceptional measures are warranted. It doesn't say that they are taking those measures, but says that they are prepared. So a vote of confidence for Argentina here from the U.S. Treasury, but maybe reflecting some concerns

in the ag sector that Argentina had been engaged in business with China, that the United States ag sector should rightly have in the view of the U.S. Maybe that's why the full bailout for Argentina not taking place, at least according to this posting, Scott. Right, that the controversy, I guess, if you want to call it that, was that Argentina had cut its export taxes to China, making it cheaper for China to purchase soybeans and the like from Argentina rather than from U.S. farmers. That was one level of criticism. We can deal with that first. I have a couple other things for you. Yeah. I'm sorry. I thought you were going to comment on that. I mean, the other idea here, that's my bad. I should have made it more clear to you, Amon, that's my bad.

I mean, the other idea is that, you know, are bond purchases going to follow this? We've bought some currency, we the swaps, et cetera. The idea, the bottom line idea is that this will, we think, the U.S. is we, buy Argentina some time to see through their economic reforms. It also underscores the ideological alignment, if you will, that this administration has with that in Argentina. Yeah, I think that's exactly the key to this, Scott, is that the U.S. looked at the Melly administration in Argentina and sees a kindred spirit. They want to help him with his austerity regime. They want to see that experiment in free market capitalism and austerity succeed in

Argentina. They think he's on the right track. And so to the extent that they can be supportive they're going to, you might look at this, you know, posed by the Treasury Secretary, that's sort of an attempt to jawbone Argentine markets and see, you know, if you don't necessarily need the whole swap, they're that they're talking about here, if just markets respond to the United States sort of flexing its financial bazooka here in this way, that might be enough. If it's not enough, Treasury Secretary is saying here, they are prepared to act. Well, I mean, you know, jawboning

sometimes works, especially when you have a figure as powerful in the world carrying the big stick that a United States Treasury Secretary does. So we'll have to see in the days ahead what happens here, Eamon, correct? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, job boning can work and sometimes it's easier to jawbone than to take action. And certainly if you're the U.S. Treasury, the scale of the U.S. market versus the scale of the Argentine market, you know, this is not a difficult thing for the U.S. government to do. But still, you know, you'd rather just flex your muscles and have everything fall into place than actually have to do it. Yeah. All right. Good reporting, Eamon. Thanks so much. Come back to us if you have anything new

regarding this breaking news. That's Amon-Javvers on the North Lawn of the White House. As you saw there. We were speaking, of course, with Tom Lee about what sentiment is this market. I mean, that is another thing, Tom, that investors are watching, just this interaction between the United States and Argentina. It just brings up geopolitical issues, the fragility of some other nations, and certainly there may be financial stability, which we are keeping a close eye. And the market doesn't seem to be too overly concerned about that. In terms of how investors really feel about what's happening here. I thought it was notable that J.P. Morgan's retail radar paper today said that investors were accelerating their purchases in stocks. This goes back to what I was asking

you about. Is it really such a hated rally if retail is leaning in even more? Seven billion dollars this week in purchases. That's well above the two-month average of 5.3. Do you want to address that? Well, as you know, retail is really the cohort that saved the market in April because they were buying that dip. The other three cohorts in the market are, of course, institutional, and then there's international, and then what I'd call family office and, you know, super high net worth. Of those three, I think institutions have been reluctant and now are allocating in the fourth quarter because, you know, there's beta, and this has not been a great year for many stock pickers. So this is this fourth quarter

is their chance to catch up. On the international, as you know, much of the flows were out of the U.S. and into non-U.S. stocks, and that's beginning to reverse. And then on the high net worth, I think there is still a stubbornness about being skeptical of stocks. And that's why I think there's still what we call the most hated V-shaped rally. The retail has not hated this rally. They have been buying since April. You just said that you think flows into international market. is starting to cease or at least slow down because the calls on the street that we've gone over over the last few days have been anything but suggesting that that's going to take place.

I mean, there's been, you know, a number of upgrades of not only emerging markets, and we just showed the EEM, the EETF that tracks it, and it's straight up to the right. And, you know, other developed markets like Europe as well. I think there's still a fair amount of optimism as the U.S. performance, trails that of those areas? Yeah, Scott, I mean, it's, I think that when we look at the balance of flows, as you know, the U.S. has outperformed non-U.S. for more than a decade, and we are seeing a little bit of catch-up here. But one of the things that I've been finding is I've been visiting with

international investors, and next week I'm actually in Latin America visiting clients, is that investors are buying non-U.S. because of valuation, but the E part of the non-US isn't really as attractive because the U.S. earnings growth is getting a big tail win from AI and the leadership from not only just AI stocks, but also U.S. financials. And so I think that earnings story is what's causing some of these who've made non-U.S. as a factor bet, realizing that you got to still have a lot to support this move. And so I think that that's why you're going to see that as a tail in into 2026. I'll come back to you in another moment. I do want to highlight the fact that this Sunday marks three years since the start of the bull market. Dom Chu is here with more on that. Hey, Dom.

All right. So, Scott, along the lines of what you and Tom are chatting about right now, that kind of V-shaped recovery that we saw around the tariff announcements earlier this spring has led to new record highs, of course. But in the context of the three-year bull market that we've seen, even the Dow, the laggard, is up about 58%. The S&P's up 87%. By the way, that translates into roughly $27 trillion in market cap over a three-year span. And the NASDA composite more than doubling 120% gain there. So this move here, even since the volatility of the spring has been major. Now, with regard to the sectors that have led the way higher in that three-year bull run, no surprise here. It's the most important ones. It's technology up 180%. Communication services up about

160% and even industrials up 80%. Those mark the three best performing sectors. Now, the laggards when it comes to that have been some of the less likely ones and even smaller ones. Real estate, health care and energy have been the real laggards, even though they are still in the grain in this bowl market. And the stocks that have been real headliners, the three best performing stocks in that three years span in the current S&P have been app loving. Yes, it just made it in this past fall in September, is up 3,300 percent. Palantir's celebrated its one-year anniversary in the S&P just this past September. It's up 2,200%. And NVIDIA will put a star up here because it is the existing legacy member of these three. It's

up 1,565%. So if you want to talk about the key stock, no surprise stock, Scott, it's been Nvidia, has been for years, especially in this three-year bull run. I'll send things back over to you, Scott. All right, a nice look at that, Dom. Thanks so much. That's Dom Chou. Let's now bring in High Tower, Stephanie Link, Truist Keith Lerner. Stephanie's a CNBC contributor. Tom of course, as you see, is still in the conversation, too. Keith, I go to you first because this plays right off your note that you put out today that I cited on the halftime report. Yes, we turn three, but we're not too old in this cycle, you don't think. We can actually go up from here. Yeah, well, first, great to be with you as always. Well, the first thing we look

at, Scott, is the historical context as a starting point in our analysis. And what we find is, you know, going back to the 1950s, there's been about 10 balls. markets, seven of them have lasted beyond three years. And once you turn three and you look a year forward, all of them has shown gains a year later. So again, that's not a huge sample, but it does say that, you know, that this bull market likely has more room. The other thing as we're thinking about this is, you know, earnings. Earnings are the north star of this bull market. A lot of different narratives as far as the economy, inflation. But what's continued to surprise to the upside is earnings. So that's going to be a key given expectations are

higher. The valuations are higher. But as we look at the weight of the evidence in our work, our work says that there's still upside as we think about the next year. Okay. Steph, what do you think? I mean, Tom Lee's big calls that you can go higher than 7,000 between now and the end of the year. Keith at Truist puts out the note today, says, yeah, we're three, but we got potential good upside ahead. Yeah, I think we have upside in the fourth quarter. I don't know if it's 7,000 or above, but it's higher, definitely. Seasonally, it points to a good time in the market for our activity and performance. outperformance. But more importantly, Scott, we have economic momentum. The Fed is about to embark

in a cutting cycle. I don't know how many times they're going to cut, but they're cutting. Earnings, as Keith just mentioned, running double digits. We have $7 trillion of cash in money markets on the sidelines. It's not all coming in, but it's a nice tailwind. You have the credit spreads are the tightest since 1998, and you have deregulation, which has just begun. And so I think you have seen a great market, right, almost all-time highs, really close to it. You're not getting a lot of pullbacks, and I think you're not getting a lot of pullbacks because only 30% of portfolio managers are outperforming their benchmarks. So they are going to chase, and they should chase because the fundamentals are strong.

And AI is not in a bubble, in my opinion, because you are seeing productivity improvements, and you're seeing at the same time lower costs. That is very powerful combination. So I think you're in the early innings, and that is helping our economy growing at 3.8%. The critique of that is that you have probably a slowing economy to some degree. I mentioned this Moody survey today. There's others who think the labor market is much weaker than what we're accepting and is only going one direction from here.

It may not be a tremendous amount of layoffs at this point. It's like a no hire, no fire. economy, but that's not necessarily all that great. You're painting it as though we've got this momentum, like we're about to ramp up on the economy when I'm not so sure. I mean, maybe we slow, maybe we slow to two and a half three. That's still well above trend. Trend is one and a half percent, and that's because we have this manufacturing renaissance regarding and related to AI. On labor front, yeah, we're not getting data. That's kind of upsetting. However, I'm looking at weekly jobless claims up until we were getting the data and it was perfectly fine. Carlisle's data the other day

was like junk that the labor market's not in a great spot. The report wasn't junk, what it said was. Initial claims are a leading indicator, not non-farm payrolls, not ADP. So that's why I pay so much attention to the weekly claims. Now, we didn't get them in the last two weeks and that's disappointing. However, Chicago Fed, they look at unemployment rate real time and it's running about 4.3%. So it's very much intact. I'm not saying that we're going to accelerate from the 3.8% the Atlanta Fed tracker is tracking right now. I know, but that Atlanta Fed tracker is usually not correct on what they say in terms of like that. But you said at the beginning economic momentum.

Yes, yes. But I'm not saying we're going to go from 3-8 to 5. I'm thinking that we're going to be above trend. And above trend is two, it could be 2, 2.5, 3%. And all you need at 2%, you're going to get double-digit earnings, especially if you're, if you have margin expansion, which we are seeing, which is surprised many, many people. Unless, Keith, it's all coming from AI, of course, that the economy to Steph looks as good as it does, but it's all hanging on AI, that it's carrying the whole thing.

And if you have one slip-up, then you could have a problem. Is there any truth to that? I wouldn't say it's carrying the whole thing. I think it's leadership, but we have to think about recently, we just over the last week, the Eco-Wate S&P just made a new high. Russell just made a new high, but the leadership is clearly still with tech. Every bull market has a defining theme. The defining theme remains AI and tech, and we've been bullish most of this year on that

area. We continue to be positive on that. And even in a day like today, we're seeing a little bit of cracks below the surface. You're seeing Invidia make a fresh high. You're seeing some actually nibbling on the tech side as well. So tech will be super important. I do agree with Steph as well, though, that as we move into next year, on the margin, we should probably get a bit more clarity and maybe a little bit improvement in the overall

economy. I don't think we need gangbusters for the stock market to do okay, but one, we'll have this one big, beautiful bill. There'll be more spending because of that as we move further along on that. I think we will have some improved clarity on the terrorists. At least companies are used to it now, a little bit more numb to and they're adjusting as well. And then we also, as we mentioned, have the Fed cutting rates. So put that all together. I think the backdrop is still positive. But I also want to say, I mean, are we not going to have some hiccups along the way? No, we probably will. We've got a long time without any type of pullback.

So I don't want investors to be complacent. But I think in our work, we're going to focus on that primary trend. That primary trend in our work suggests that we still ultimately move higher. And going into the fourth quarter, you know, seasonal is all positive. That's one factor. When you have momentum in the fourth quarter, heading into the fourth quarter, we actually have a better market than typical. So I would say stick with the trend, three to five percent pullback. are an opportunity, and we ultimately still see upside in this market led by tech.

Here's a headline that plays right into Steph's forecast of how she sees things. Microsoft forecast show Data Center Crunch persists into 2026. It matches what Michael Dell said on overtime the other day on this network. We may get to an overbuild, but I don't see any signs of it yet. This is a key part of your outlook. It's huge. Need a lot more data centers, and you need a lot more power to power of the data centers, which is why those power type plays are a big portion of what you want to do.

And you have to upgrade the grid. So you have all of these industries that are being impacted. That is very encouraging. It's not just tech that is spending. The sector industrials are going to spend almost $80 billion this year. Utilities are going to spend almost $200 billion this year. All of it is related AI data center grid power. And that is very, very important. really widely distributed. And I would also say one thing. It's not just AI that's driving the economy. The consumer has held up remarkably well, and that is very important.

In certain areas. But it's 70%. Services is above, the ISMs are above 50 for the last two and a half years. So services is 75% of consumption, and consumer is 70% of the economy. So it's not just AI. Tom, wrap it up on this note. The tech sector's forward PE today is 31 times, as people talk about valuation and how much tech and AI has meant to where we are. The 20-year average is 17.9, so 31 versus 18. Is that okay?

Yeah, I'm okay with that because I think visibility is much better. You know, tech is not the pure cyclical group where you actually sell it at low PE and buy it high. IPE. This is a group that you buy because there is visibility. And I do think that the PE expansion isn't going to just be tech going forward, Scott, because the ISM and you guys had this conversation just now has been below 50 for 31 months. That is a big percentage of S&P earnings that can accelerate when confidence recovers. And that is actually likely going to pivot as the Fed embarks on a cutting cycle. So I think tech has been the leader. I do think market will broaden, so, you know, as people stay reluctant, I think there's still a lot of upside into your end.

You'll make that the last word. Tom, thanks. Keith, thank you. And Steph, of course, thanks for being here post-9, Stephanie Link. Let's send it now to Christina Parts of Nevelos for a look at the biggest names moving into this closed today. Christina. Let's start with shares of Tesla dropping, actually, after a U.S. agency said it's opening an investigation into nearly 2.9 million Tesla vehicles that were equipped with its full self-driving system over traffic safety violations. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says it has reports of Tesla's driving through red lights and driving against the proper direction of travel when switching lanes. Shares down less than 1% though. Oracle, look at those shares moving the other direction after Baird-ishay coverage of the tech giant with an outperform rating.

The shares are up almost 4%. The firm actually said Oracle has positioned itself to really take advantage of what else the AI craze, pointing to its five-year, $300 billion deal with Open AI, despite it in the less. leverage needed shares. You can see up of 4% on the week as well. And shares of NVIDIA, one with that, up about 2% hitting a fresh all-time high. That comes as the U.S. government approved several billion dollars worth of NVIDIA chip exports to the United Arab Emirates. This is according to Bloomberg. NVIDIA commenting right now. I also want to point out TSMC, Taiwan Semi posting a 30% increase in sales for the third quarter because of

AI sales. That could also be helping Nvidia as well. Got. All right. We'll come back in a bit. Christina, thanks so much. We're just getting started here up next, the former Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher. He is back. He'll tell us what he's expecting from the Fed at their upcoming meeting, what he thinks about the market and what he thinks the Fed's thinking about this record run in stocks. We'll do that next. What role does a high-flying stock market play in deciding what the Fed might do at their upcoming meetings? Let's ask Richard Fisher. He's a senior advisor now for Jeffries. He's the former Dallas Fed president, also a CNBC contributor, and it's nice to see you. Welcome back.

Thank you, Scott. You know, I thought that was notable yesterday in the minutes where they said some note financial conditions suggest policy may not be particularly restrictive. And how they might look at this record run in the stock market amid calls that it's going to go even higher and think about what their own policy decisions could do in fueling that. Well, the head of the New York Fed, which is the most important person among the Federal Reserve Bank, presidents, John Williams, made a comment on this yesterday, that he didn't feel that markets were necessarily being restricted. And, of course, the question is, how much is AI, which you just had a long discussion about been fueling of this market? But you should know, again, the Federal Reserve doesn't really look at the equity markets. They look at the credit markets. And the

credit markets are still pretty wide open. We haven't seen a real backup in spreads or yields. And I think that's really what he was referring to predominantly, not just the equity markets. And equity markets come and go. They've been on this, as you point out. We've had a three-year rally here that's significant. In fact, incredibly impressive. I must say, though, for all those that are critical to Fed, and if you believe the Atlanta Fed number now, number of 3.8% growth in a quarter and the stock market an all-time high. Kind of hard to criticize the Fed here for not having run monetary policy that is to the liking of the securities markets.

And again, spreads are still low. Remember that, Scott. The great debate in the room, so to speak, seems to be, and I kind of reference it about how restrictive we are or we're not. Obviously, Steve and Myron thinks that you're way too restrictive. Others are not so sure. And there's like a battle in the room over that idea. And it is central, of course, in how it's going to guide policy decisions going forward.

What do you think? Well, look, if you really look at the minutes with a keen eye, you'll see it's roughly divided 50-50 in terms of those that might want to continue to ease, that is cut rates a little bit further, and those that are, I think, 10 indicated out of the 19 total. Now, Mr. Myron has an interesting view. He has to convince the other 18 people at the table of his view, and thus far, they don't seem to be going along with it. But he's going to, I think it's good for him to present a counter argument.

And we'll just have to see how others caught into that argument. Nobody else forecast five cuts going forward, as Myron did. But to be fair to Steve Byron, he's presenting an intellectual alternative, and that'll be carefully listened to. And his job will have to be to convince the 18 others to go along with him, not an easy task. So I do think it's evenly divided, Scott, and we'll just have to see what obtains here. If you listen to John Williams, you get a sense that they might be leaning towards two more cuts this year. We'll see another quarter, another quarter perhaps. If you listen to Governor Barr, who just spoke, it doesn't seem to be going that way.

So we'll just have to watch this carefully. Right now, the economy is, obviously, we know, struggling on the employment issue, even though that we don't have the official data coming out. And there is skepticism going forward in terms of inflationary expectations that getting down to the 2% target is going to be very difficult. And, in fact, we might have an inflationary bump as people work off inventory that they accumulated in anticipation of the tariffs. What do you think, what do you think, Richard, the move in gold is suggesting?

How do you think policymakers, if at all, are thinking about it? If it represents in any way a move to de-risk from the U.S. dollar, obviously the dollar is not their purview, as they always say, it's that of the Treasury Secretary. We already know that. But nonetheless, this move in gold has captured a lot of people's attention. Yeah, and I think a lot of it is driven by Chinese accumulation. We've seen an enormous buildup of their official reserves in gold. We've also seen it with other central banks.

It indicates a lack of confidence going forward. And perhaps, at least for those that are worried about us, in terms of our economy, of skepticism, as to all the different programs that have been put forward by our new president. But it indicates a weak to the dollar. Now, Scott, you'll notice, of course, in September 15th, the dollar has rallied from 97 on a tradeway to base up to about 99 a fraction where it is today. But, and I don't know how to account for that rally. But to me, the vote for gold and also silver, by the way, is a vote against the dollar. It expresses concern. And I think, again,

having been a central banker and having been a hawkish one, I think it's also a vote of concern about not just inflationary impulses that might be released here in the United States, but chaos everywhere. Look at the French government. Look at the Germans. Look at what's happened with the Japanese parliament now with a new election. And then, of course, the threats that are opposed by North Korea, by China, by Putin, the Ukraine war, there's enormous uncertainty.

And when there's that kind of uncertainty in the world, it's not just relative to one currency. It's relative to fear. And that's, I think, why, the oldest rally. Sure. Sure. But I mean, you know, the prospects, as you put them of quote-unquote chaos everywhere, it isn't showing up in the stock market. No, at least not yet. And that's interesting in and of itself if somebody like you uses that phrase and it's not really top of mind for investors. I got to ask you one more thing and then I got to go,

Richard, so forgive me. The Texas Stock Exchange just got regulatory approval, didn't it? the SEC and you are a strategic advisor. I've talked to you about it before. How meaningful is this approval and what does it truly mean? How should we think about it? Well, look, this is the first approval in decades for what's called a fully integrated exchange. That means offering listing, trading, clearing, settlement, and market data services. And we also have had significant changes in the laws here in Texas engineered by Governor Abbott and legislature that will protect boards of directors from intrusion, unfriendlies in a different way. It's been done here to four. We won't have a woke or anti-woke agenda. It's all based on the best return on

capital. We are a dynamic growing centrifugal force in terms of the economy of the United States. That will continue. But I want you to understand, Scott, this is a national exchange. I also want you to be patient. We're not going to start with listings until sometime in 2006, and it'll be slow to gain its momentum. But I'm fully supportive, obviously. I will be chairing the advisory committee for the listings, and also am an advisor to it.

And I think its time has come. So it is a challenge. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ have opened what they call Texas offices here in Dallas. To me, that's just costume jewelry. We are the real thing. And we'll just have to see how we can grow this over time and become a significant exchange that provides more liquidity, better postings for the companies that want to list with us. And we also plan to share the market data that we accumulate, which the other two exchanges

do not do. There's a lot going under, Scott, and we'll talk about this more as we go through time. All right. I look forward to that. Your points on Texas are well taken. I mentioned that Moody's data earlier, their analysis of the economy here in the U.S., And I said 22 states, according to them, are either at or in or near a recession.

Texas, not among them. Still expansionary. Richard, it's good to see you. Thank you. We'll see you soon. Thank you, Scott. Appreciate it. All right.

Yep, that's Richard Fisher. Up next. Class is in session because the Wharton School professor, Jeremy Siegel, is back. Welcome back. Is the market showing signs of bubble trouble? More big names weighing in on that key question. today. Now let's ask another. Jeremy Siegel is the Wharton School Professor of Finance. He's

chief economist for Wisdom Tree, and he's with us now. It's good to see you. Good to see you, Scott. I mean, we have had a plethora of people weigh in on the issue of a bubble. I want you to listen to what Paul Tudor Jones told Squawk Box the other morning, and we'll react right to it on the other side. It feels exactly like 1999. I don't know whether we'll actually replay exactly but I think all the ingredients are in place and certainly from a trading standpoint you have to position yourself like it's October 99 I don't see why you would do anything but that and remember the NASDAQ doubled between the first week of October 99 and March of 2000 so it looks like a

duck and quacks like a duck is probably not a chicken right All right, so let's take that in two parts, Professor. The idea that he says, quote, it feels exactly like 1999. Do you agree? No, I don't agree. I mean, and Tom Lee was talking about forward PE ratios. Forward PE ratios on the S&P, including MAG 7, are about 23. If you exclude the MAG 7, you're down to about 19, 19 and a half.

Back then at the peak in 2000, they were 30 going forward. And the interest rates were much higher. In fact, back then you could buy 10-year tips, Treasury inflation, protected securities, get over 4%. Today you get 1.7%. I mean, the alternatives are not anywhere near as good. No, I mean, you know, some people say we're like 1997, which it was in December or of 97 that Alan Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance, and then the market kept on soaring in 98, 99, and it did not peak until it reached crazy levels in 2000, and we are not at

those levels. The second part, of course, of Paul's point, and maybe the most salient one to my next question in our conversation is, yeah, it feels exactly like 99, but, I'm paraphrasing, of course, I'm no dummy. I mean, you saw what happened from October of 99 until the spring of 2000, so why wouldn't you be positioned for a much higher stock market from here? Is that how you see it as well, lean into this market because we're going to have a big, big upside from here?

I mean, absolutely. I mean, the momentum is a very powerful factor, and the momentum is there. I do want people to understand, and it's been said before, but I think it bears listening to. You know, Wall Street and Main Street are not the same. We were talking about how strong is the economy, should the Fed cut. I think the gap between Main Street and Wall Street is getting greater and greater. And, you know, you have AI pushing, you know, a group of stocks that is 25 to 30 percent. AI hires, employs about 1% or 1.5% of the U.S. workforce.

And all the other companies that aren't really doing very much are employing the other 90%. So, I mean, we have a big gap, I think, between these two. And AI can continue to soar. An indexed investor can continue to do well, even though the economy, I think, is facing some challenges. First of all, government shutdown, I don't want to last much longer, and I still think we have a question of how those tariffs might affect Q4 holiday sales coming up, how much price increases might deter individuals. I think it's a mix between, you know, government shutdown, negative sentiment,

and we are going to get sentiment tomorrow. That's not a government number of the University of Michigan. So I say that we have to be cognizant of the fact, that economy, stock market, yeah, there's a big link, but there's also a gap. Well, I mean, this was what I was discussing with Stephanie Link, who made the point earlier on the program, whether you heard it or not, I'm not sure, that the economy is still strong and so is the consumer. So we should be focusing more on that. There aren't as many concerns as some would like you to believe. It sounds like you disagree with that.

Well, no, we have strong investment. We strong AI investment. I don't think we're going to get the 3.8 on GDP. I think it's going to be in the mid-tooth, but a lot of that's investment. And we also know that the consumption of the high end, you know, the better off individuals, because their stock market is doing great, their bitcoins are doing great, property values are still up. Their spending, the spending is pretty lackwester on the bottom half. So, you know, when you say strength of consumer spending, you have to talk about, Which consumer are you talking about? No, I hear you.

Finally, before I let you go, Tom Lee said you could get past 7,000 this year in the remainder of the year. You buy that? I think so. I mean, you know, I mean, the trend, you know, make the trend your friend. And what he said is we're beating estimates.

Take a look at Delta, raising estimates, you know, and that's a sensitive commodity. Again, they say we're filling first class better than the economy. Same sort of story. But nonetheless, they're beating estimates with AI growing and firm saying to themselves, listen, if I'm going to try to offset those tariff costs, I've got to use AI more to increase productivity. Yeah, I could definitely see 7,000 by the end of the year. Professor, we will leave it there and we'll see you again soon.

Thanks for your time. Thank you, Scott. It's Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton School up next. Run you through, what to watch for when Levi Strauss reports in OT when we come back. We're now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus Phil LeBose tracking the move in Delta today and Courtney Reagan standing by with what to watch for from Levi results in OT. Phil, we go to you and a really upbeat report and discussion with Ed Bastion today.

And do you know what this report is for the third quarter, Scott? It's a reflection of the strength of the upper end consumer. the revenue numbers for the third quarter from Delta. This is why the stock is up more than 3% today. Domestic swung positive, up 2% overall, but corporate up 8%. It was up only 1% in the first half of the year. Premium, up 9% compared to the third quarter of last year. All of this is why Ed Bastion, when we talked to him, he basically painted a picture of what they're seeing with corporate customers right now. Here's what he had to say this morning. because of the uncertainty you need to be out with your customers you need to be out with your

people you need to understand what's happening and I think across the board people started to understand that so they did stall in the spring but as as the summer came everybody got back out every one of our business sectors were up meaningfully in the quarter and some quite quite extraordinary by the way take a look at shares of delta they gave guidance for the fourth quarter a buck 60 to a buck 90 going into today the consensus will was 166, Scott. That's obviously going to go higher as analysts digest these numbers. One last thing, Scott, if you look at all the airline stocks today, they're all down except for two, Delta and United. You know why? Because they're generating the bulk of the profits for the

domestic airlines here in the U.S. They have strength where others do not. Back to you. In the front of the planes. Phil, thanks. That's Phil LeBoebeau, joining us on that. All right, Courtney Reagan, Levi Strauss and O.T. Tell us more. Yeah, Scott. So analysts are estimating Levi's Jocelso report earnings of 31 cents on revenues of $1.5 billion, with operating a margin of 11.3%, gross margin of 60.7%. And while Levi has had a history of conservative guidance and then beating expectations, the guidance that was given last quarter assumed a 10% tariff rate for imports outside of China. Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, those are some of Levi's main countries of import, and those current tariff levels are much higher than 10% at 19 and 20%.

Now, Levi does sell internationally, too, so not all the production that is made there is important to the United States, though the United States is its largest individual market. But the denim maker has been on a hot streak. It's captured some cultural moments, including Beyonce, Timothy Salome, denim, also in a strong cycle. Levi's shares have well outperformed the broader S&P 500 since it last reported on July 10th, as well as the retail ETF, the XRT, and competitors like Gap and contour brands. Though Levi's last four quarters have seen some pretty volatile stock reaction, both to the upside and the downside. So without consistency, but based largely on what the company has to say. So we'll see what happens coming up if that hot street can continue. All right.

Court, thank you. That's Courtney Reagan. Mike Santoli here. I mean, sometimes you've got two minutes left. Sometimes you just need to rest. And that doesn't amount to much more than that. You know, we keep setting these little mini bear traps in the middle of the day. It looked like we're going to have a little more than a half percent to climb the S&P.

had three quarters of all stocks down. Didn't really amount too much. You could have a little bit of a late bid. When Nvidia and Meta are each up 2%, there's only so much damage you can do to the S&P. That said, there still are these little soft spots. And consumer cyclicals, I'm going to keep pointing to it, equal weight, down 1% today,

even though you've got some encouraging news from Costco and Delta Airlines that maybe could have given you some relief. And then, of course, the spillover from this sort of private credit hiccups, the alternative asset managers trade badly, regional banks, you know, kind of sitting there, not doing much of anything. So it's not so much that we're seeing heavy stress or things to really get hyper-concerned about, but it's removing some of that macro tailwind where you were able to say, hey, the market sees this as an economy in real good shape, maybe re-accelerating with the Fed going to cut rates. And the more

that goes on, the more you become dependent on the AI trade, because the rest of it's not cooperating. So not really raising, you know, some kind of a flare and saying, be careful here, but it does show you that the market's a bit uneven. And at this point, really, it's just sort of hesitating above this 6,700 level. Apple not playing along today. I mean, if you throw up Apple shares. You did have that note from J.P. Morgan's retail trader that, yes, the retail's buying some of the other big names in AI, but they're dumping Apple. Stocks down four bucks. They are. Dumping Apple, I would also point out the pullback in gold today. So to the degree that's representative of the hot money momentum trade you are down two percent off a pretty

extended level in that as i said we have a major average rest sort of speech today bell rings and red across the board as we uh we settle out here it looks like down about a half of one percent that would be about a third as if we're us i see tomorrow we know we'll see with morgan and john