Closing Bell - Closing Bell: 11/21/25

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to closing bell. I'm Mike Santoli, in for Scott Wapner. This make-a-break hour begins with a relief rally to end a choppy week as the bears take a breather and investors attempt to rotate away from danger and some AI plays in crypto and toward more stable stocks. A less hawkish tone from New York Fed President John Williams taking some of the pressure off the tape. That was this morning alongside some dip buying in consumer plays and a continued bid in health care. So take a look at the key indexes right now. The S&P 500 up about 1.4% in recapturing just about half of that steep intraday drop from yesterday while remaining down more than 1% for the week. The NASDAQ is pretty much keeping pace there.

It's up 1.5% as well, although it is farther from its high than the S&P is. The small cap, Russell 2000, as well as the equal weighted S&P 500, both up more than 2%. In fact, the Russell up more than 3% on the day, which takes us to our talk of the tape. Has the market had enough of a flush this month to reset positioning into the home stretch of 2025 and is today's rotation worth playing or fading? Let's ask Avery Sheffield, excuse me, Vantage Rock co-founder and CIO, and it's good to see you. Great to be here. So we had this sort of five-ish percent pullback in the S&P. A lot of the more aggressive, speculative parts of this market really got purged.

Market making a bid that that was enough right here. How do you see it? So I think it depends on the stocks. I think in those more speculative stocks, the market was taking out some froth that maybe should have never been there in the first place. Along the way, it did also take money out of cyclicals that if the Fed is a bit more lenient, if there's any weakening, actually could set up for a really nice 2026. Many things going on at once, as there usually is when the market pulls back like this. This rethink we're having of the AI trade, I mean, it's interesting because you go back a month and a half and all the talk. was it's a runaway AI bubble and all that talk got people worried about what that might

mean. And now you have a lot of stocks down a ton and people are trying to figure out winners and losers. How do you think about that? Yeah. So I think that what's different now is that there is visibility to potentially there being winners and losers, whereas before it was considered to be all winners. And I was at a dinner last night and we were talking about like the AI bubbles, the AI bubble bursting. But if you actually look at the stocks under the surface, it's maybe the open AI bubble that's bursting, right? Google is near all-time highs. And the whole Google ecosystem is actually held up much better. So I think the market is making a call that maybe, you know, one player, multiple players might do better than others and rewarding them

accordingly. What does that mean? I don't know if this is an area you play. I mean, we just heard about maybe the administration is going to allow Nvidia to sell its newest generation chips to China, but the whole AI food chain kind of got hit yesterday despite a pretty, what seemed reassuring quarter from Nvidia. Yes, I mean, I think here what we have is like the law of large numbers, right? They had phenomenal results, but, you know, Jensen Wang had already put out the $500 billion of revenue by the end of next year, and he said, oh, there was upside to these numbers, but these numbers are so astronomical that it's really hard to have confidence that that's

going to continue forever, right? So, 2026 looks to be absolutely in the bag. 2007, maybe a bit more of a question mark. Even if the demand is there, is the supply chain actually able to catch up? And I think there are some question marks about that. And then also, next year, at some point, there might be more questions about the significant cash a burn that you're seeing by some players like Open AI. And so if investors in those companies are questioning the free cash flow generation,

And six months from now, they might not be willing to fund the next round of capital. And so you might be limited to more those very cash generative companies buying chips, which might mean demand doesn't accelerate at the same rate moving forward. So do you think that the market in this last period is roughly getting it right as it tries to sort of navigate those issues? For now, I think it's moving in the right direction. I think the one thing about AI that's clear is that the perception of winners can, change very quickly, right? So right now we have a perception of Google being a potential real leader with the Gemini 3.0 model and them putting out a price that suggests they have

real pricing power and technological superiority. But should you have, for example, open AI come along and present, you know, an advertising model competitor to Google, like people's perception might change. But for now, I think the market is reacting to the realities. All right, welcome back to CNBC, everybody. As you probably saw, we had a couple of just minor technical issues. They're not a big deal. You know what's not having a technical issue? The stock market. Yesterday, obviously, we popped at the top and then we saw the markets go down. We lost about 4.5% on the NASDAQ ended right in our lows. Well, a lot of that is being gained back today. Still, we're headed for a down week. But overall, we are seeing

markets today in rally mode across the board. Nasdaq's up 1.5%. The Dow is up 1.4%. And really maybe the most interesting part of the stock market are the Cindy Brady's, right? Or the Bobby Brady's. That is the small cap stocks. You look at the SML, you look at the Russell 2000 up more than 3%. These are some of the largest gains that we have seen for small cap stocks. And maybe the small cap stocks are doing so well because of some changes in the way we think about interest rates. And on that topic, we got some very interesting comments today from Fed Governor John Williams. Let's send it now to CBC Senior Economics Correspondent Steve Leesman because I feel like these Williams comments, Steve, they really turned a lot of thinking around.

It sure did, Brian. It's a really good observation. I'm calling this on second thought. A week's worth of hawkish speech from Fed officials gets ripped up, torn up, thrown out, and today by a single line in a speech by the influential New York Fed president. Williams making just one comment about Fed policy in a speech in Chile saying, quote, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term. Near term is what I'm emphasizing to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral near term could mean January, but it could also mean December, which sent Fed Fund futures soaring to 60% probability of a rate cut from 33% before

William spoke. And of course, likely played something of a role in this market reality, which looked to be more concerned about a quarter point cut than it appeared to be, at least earlier this week. Krista Gouyevichor, I suggest William's comments would not have come without a sign-off of, Christian says, from Fed Chair Jay Powell. We don't know his view specifically on a December cut. Gua called Williams' remarks a leadership steer. And now the question is how many voters, quote, follow the leader. As you know, Brian, as a musician, I'm skilled in what to do with technical difficulties. And the answer is you sing louder. Well, you sing louder and you say, look over here, but let's go back to your band reference before I send it back to Mike Santoli,

who is there. And let's, because you've got the lead singer, you got the lead guitar, you've the base players kind of in the back, I would assume because John Williams is moving the market to this effect that he is seen as maybe not lead vocalist. That's Jerome Powell, but he's got to be up there because this is one of nine whatever voting members. Why is John Williams moving the market with those comments? It's a great question, Brian, and the answer is this. sometimes the chair will send out a vice chair or in this case, the president of the New York Fed. We don't know this to be true, but this is something that's happened in the past. Call it the intellectual pulling guard for the chair, where what his job is to do is kind of clear the defense out of the way,

set things right, and be in front of the chair carrying the ball, and kind of create the opportunity for the Fed Chair to come in and redirect the markets. We haven't heard from Powell. I don't know that we're going to hear from Powell before the next meeting. But I think that's what's happening here. John, it could be that John Williams is speaking on his own for himself and that others don't follow. We've had, I don't know if we have that board available, Brian, but we've had a lot of hawkish Fed. We've been on your show how many times this week talking about it, watching those probabilities fall.

And the reason is because John Williams is part of the leadership of the Fed. And the thinking among many is that he's really speaking or at least clearing the way. for the Fed Chair to try to implement that December cut. Well, I love it. And Steve Leesman, I feel like you're the Grateful Dead in 1977 because every other day you're somewhere else. The epic tour of the Federal Reserve, rock in Cleveland, rock in Boston. Steve Leesman, thank you very much.

All right. Mike Santoli has re-plugged in the wire he apparently tripped over. We're going to send it back to him at the NYSC. You will be able to buy a cassette of all this in the parking lot someday, Brian. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Meantime, Vantage Rocks, Avery Sheffield, still with me. Let's bring a Newburgh of Berman, Shannon Sacocia and Hightower, Stephanie Link as well, both of them, CNBC contributors, of course.

So let's just, Avery, just quickly react to this idea that the market was tensed up about the idea of a Fed mistake, if they go on hold in December, maybe some softening up at the labor market. Is this enough to reassure things? I think that comments of Williams today do suggest that if the market has too much of a sell-off, they'll probably come to the rest of you as long as the economic data is softening. So that does suggest some support, especially to these cyclical names. Yeah. And Shannon, I mean, just more generally, the market obviously dealing with these compound issues, a bit of a growth stock, overshoot to the upside, getting unwound,

and now the market figuring out what happened to the fourth quarter rally. So how are you thinking about that? Well, we're getting a lot of questions from clients, Mike, about what is driving this? And I think that the challenge is now is that there are just a confluence of factors. And unlike other periods this year where we've had a confluence of sort of positive tailwinds, you're just getting a lot of win in the face right now. If we look at positioning, there's always a drive in this fourth quarter for portfolio managers to really look to buy some of these winners.

But at these valuations, it doesn't feel as comfortable. We're also going into 2026, and many of us, including Newberger, we're looking at 2026 as an opportunity to Avery's comments around cyclicals, small and mid-cap names, looking to find those AI adopters rather than AI enablers. So you're looking at sectors, Mike, like health care, financials, industrials, wanting to position your portfolio for 2026, and so that has to come from somewhere. We talk a lot about cash on the sidelines. If you're an equity portfolio manager, though, you're probably pretty close to fully invested.

And so you're trimming off some of those names, particularly if they feel like they've run a little bit and gotten a little bit long in the tooth this quarter. I think the rate story will help. I think that getting some more clarity around how many cuts we get and where that neutral rate ends will certainly benefit those cyclicals. But I think it's just a number of things at this juncture. Sure. And Steph, you know, we come into this period after a very good earnings season, right, where essentially that piece of the puzzle fit in pretty well. As a matter of fact, we now roll forward our, you know, 12-month estimate of S&P 500 earnings, and with the stocks pulling back, magically, we're down under 22 times earnings again on a forward basis.

So I guess in a sense, you've de-risk the market a little bit, but within the market, where have opportunities surfaced? I'm looking at equal-weighted industrials of 2.4% today after they looked pretty tenuous yesterday. Yeah, I mean, first and foremost, you mentioned earnings. earnings are up about 12% and they're probably going to do that this year and maybe even next year as well. And a lot of that has to do it though, Mike, that it's driven by a stronger economy. The Atlanta Fed Tracker today came out at 4.2% for the third quarter in GDP. And I know that a lot of it is AI related, probably 70% or so is AI related.

But it's throughout a number of different industry sectors, companies that are driving this. That's number one, and that's one of the big reasons. I don't think you're seeing a bubble in AI. But number two, the consumer is hanging in. The consumer has been resilient. Yes, they're being choosy on where they spend and what they spend, but they are spending if you have the right products and the right services. When you add all that up, I don't even think we're kind of obsessing about the Fed and cuts in December.

I don't even think the Fed needs to cut. We would like the Fed to cut. But if you see higher inflation because you have higher growth, that actually is positive. for earnings. And that's why I feel good about earnings. I think the fact that we are still up 30% from the April lows, even though we've had a four and a half, five percent pullback, that's still remarkable. That's remarkable in terms of what we have seen. And at the same time, you have a very negative sentiment. You know, you have the fear and greed at seven. You have the S&P oscillator negative four. You have the VIX up 41% in 10 days. So any piece of news

to turn the narrative around, you're going to see rallies like this. For sure. Yeah. I mean, we came into the day looking a little bit stretch to the downside, at least on a short-term basis. Although, Avery, I guess when those conditions take hold, the question is always, are we going to see something even messier? Do people have to just continue to shed risk? Bitcoin has become the fixation, if only as that kind of risk appetite tell how much portfolio stresses out there. Can we maybe get some comfort in how the market's acting today around that? So the more speculative areas of the market might continue to see weakness. I'm not sure because liquidity is very tight, right? Even if the Fed cuts 25 basis points next month, like, I don't know that that's going to be enough to meaningfully increase liquidity.

So I think we're more likely to see, like, this rotation potentially taking money out of winners, out of speculative stocks that are really priced in too much. Sure. And going into companies that are undervalued that really have some interesting catalyst. list ahead. Shannon, you know, I'm kind of one of those out there who's saying everyone says they want a broader market. This is sometimes how it looks and feels in the process of it becoming broader, right? You have 35% of market cap in seven stocks. Almost everybody agrees that's too much. It comes out all at once and the indexes don't always take it easily. Well, interestingly, we came into this year, Mike, thinking about the potential deterioration and earnings growth for the

hyperscalers, for instance. And so really looking to close that delta, if you will, between the earnings that we were seeing in tech and every other sector. Instead, what you've seen is you've seen everything sort of move up to the right together. And I think that that, so we were concerned about this. And I think we were better positioned for this in terms of narrative early in 2025 than we feel right now. But it's not different than maybe what we had talked about earlier. There needs to be some rotation. There needs to be opportunities for this repositioning. And yes, it's going to feel a little bit. difficult. I think more importantly, though, it might be able to wash out some of this really

speculative AI adjacent exposure that many people have probably let build up a little bit too much in their portfolio. So I think that for us, you know, in our outlook, this is what we were expecting. We perhaps expected it earlier this year. But I think, again, we've also given an opportunity where if you look at small caps stocks, for instance, the earnings outlook for 2006 looks a lot stronger. Yes, that is coming through for sure. And Steph, you know, there has been a lot of distinction among, even within the Mac 7, as everybody knows by now, I mean, meta's had it rough. You know, Alphabet is now larger the Microsoft than market cap as of today.

And we were just talking a little while ago about how if the market decides Alphabet is kind of got the pole position, it might not be that great for the whole infrastructure food chain, but then, of course, the pendulum can swing in favor of somebody else along the way. So I know you own meta and think about the space, and how would you position around all that? Yeah, well, I think with an RSI of 23 at META, I think it's way overdone and way oversold. And at the flip side, I mean, Google goes up every single day with an RSI of 64. So it's getting a little extended. I think there are plenty of winners in this space.

I think all the MAG-7s, all the technology companies that are spending $431 billion in CAPX, they will see monetization, number one, return on their investments, number two. the reason I've chosen to buy more meta is because we are seeing it with impression growth of 14% time spent up 5% and video time spent up 30%. And you're seeing better pricing, pricing of about 10%. That's monetization. And I can't believe that people are willing to sell that. And they've sold this thing now down 25%. In terms of your question to me earlier that I did not answer is where else am I going. Honestly, I think you still want to be in financials. I am watching the industrial data center companies and the build out of the grid, those companies are winners as well as the

invidias of the world, the semiconductor companies of the world. So I'm absolutely keeping my eye on quantum services, vertive, Eaton, Rockwell. Those are winners as well with double-digit backlogs, which is really important, good visibility. All right, we will leave it there. I really appreciate the conversation to wrap up this week. Avery, Shannon, and Steph. Appreciate it. All right, let's go over to Christina Parson Evel. She's got a big corporate story that we are watching right now. Christina. And, of course, involves chips, the NVIDIA.

Well, the White House is having early discussions about letting NVIDIA sell its H-200 AI chips to China. Bloomberg broke the story, but I can confirm the administration, is definitely considering giving NVIDIA the green light on these more advanced chips. The H-200, though, is not China-specific chip like the H-20. So I know it's a little confusing. Just think of the 200 as being a higher spec product that Invidio sells globally. A company spokesperson told me, quote, the regulatory landscape does not allow us to offer a competitive data center GPU in China,

leaving that massive market to a rapidly growing foreign competitors. Translation, C.O. Jensen Wong has called this market China a $50 billion opportunity. But just last quarter alone, and video only sold about $50 million worth of these China-specific H20 chips because of export controls and because China blocked some of the entrance of those chips. But even if the Trump administration approves a more advanced H-200 chip, China itself is the bigger hurdle. Why do I say that? Because Beijing is pushing domestic semiconductor companies to a lot of the hyperscalers over there to use the domestic chips. And Chinese buyers may not actually

want chips that first shipped in 2023 when there are newer, higher-spec versions from the Blackwell lineup available elsewhere. So it's really, really, if they get the green light, it's really up to China to see if it goes through. Mike? Yeah, you can get permission to sell it. You still need buyers. Christina, thank you very much. All right, up next, Muhammad L. Arian of Allianz.

He tells us if he thinks a December cut could be back in play, and what it might mean for the market into year end? He joins us after the break. We are live from the New York Stock Exchange, S&P 500 up 1.4%. You're watching Closing Bell on Sanbyc. Welcome back. Stocks rebounding a bit after New York Fed President John Williams implied the FOMC could cut rates again at the upcoming December meeting. My next guest says markets shouldn't overreact to those dovish comments, though. Joining me now is Alian's chief economic advisor, Mohamed Al-Ary. And Mohammed, it's great to have you on here. I mean, I guess he tried to tilt the consensus of a conflicted committee in a, uh,

dovish direction. We have incomplete economic data and clearly different ways of looking at things. So how does it net out to you? It nets out as uncertain. It nets out as whatever the outcome is, it's going to be controversial, it's going to be messy, and it will reflect a divided fed. The market is all over the place on this, Mike. As you know, in the last three weeks alone, the implied probability of the December cut went from the 90% to the 30 and now to the 60s. Those are massive moves for a meeting that is on December 10th. So it reflects what you said, and this is why it's going to remain uncertain. The data isn't going to resolve this, especially as we heard that we won't get the October

CPI inflation report. the biases of the FOMC members are very different. There is no strategic vision as to where this economy is going, because this has been a Fed that's been very data dependent. And finally, Chair Powell is a lame duck. So I think it's a 50-50, and whatever comes out will be accompanied by a message that will make it feel really uncertain. And I guess really there's only another week of Fed speak until the blackout period ahead of that meeting, right?

And if you don't think that any of the data will get in the next couple of weeks are really going to swing the votes in one direction distinctly or another, it might be up to how the market behaves between now and then. I wonder if that even is going to be the deciding factor. And then the question is just how high are the stakes for the economy itself, in your view, as to whether we get a cut or not? So I think it's remarkable, as Steve said, that Fed officials have put out so explicitly their views. This would not have happened before. Secondly, yes, where the market goes may have an influence. Thirdly, the Fed has a basic problem. In an AI-led economy, GDP growth is decoupling from employment.

I mean, when else have we spoken about a week? labor market when the Atlanta now estimate of GDP is at 4%. These are historically inconsistent elements. And it speaks to the fact that the consumer sector is relatively weak. We saw that today. People are worried about unemployment. But we have another engine, which accounts depending on how you measure the wealth effect, 60 to as high as maybe 90% of the drivers of GDP. So this is a really rough, tough position for the Fed to be in. And it's one that, unfortunately, is going to be with us in future Fed meetings as well. It's true, although, you know, at one point, and maybe in the abstract, those conditions might lead you to believe that a cut would be more likely than not

simply because the Fed is meant to be targeting employment levels, not GDP, right? Oh, absolutely. But the strong economy is also keeping inflation up. And we saw in the UMIS data today that inflation expectations are at four and a half percent. Look, if I were on the Fed, I would cut. But I would cut not on the basis of the current state of the economy, but on a strategic view of the economy. I think that AI and other innovations, robotics, life sciences, are going to contribute to a significant increase in productivity. The speed limit for this economy is going to go up. There will be employment issues to deal with.

So if you look at whether you have the ability to cut is yes, whether you have the willingness, it should be yes, because the labor market is weak. So if I was there, I would cut, but I started by saying it's about a strategic vision. This Fed has not taken a strategic vision. It has been overly data dependent, and that's why they're in the mess they're in right now. Yeah, I mean, I know there's certainly not been an articulated strategic vision about the AI investment cycle and what it's going to mean in terms of reshaping the economy or employment or anything like that. What do you think we should expect on a longer term macro basis from this? I mean, it's one of those things where bubbles are very dangerous if you buy them near the top, but they tend to have positive longer term effects in terms of kind of helping to build the economic future.

Yeah, you know, I put up an op yesterday in New York Times saying it's okay if we are in a bubble. And I think there are elements of a financial bubble. But what is behind the financial bubble, Mike, as you know, is a tremendous amount of capital enabled by the U.S. capital markets to fund innovations, research, etc. that will make us better off over the long term. So if a financial bubble is a byproduct of this major shift of capital into a sector that has such promise, I'm okay with that.

We as a whole will be better off. There will be some investors nursing some pretty big losses and we can go through the areas of excesses, but the economy as a whole will be better off. Yeah, as it was with railroads in the internet, I guess. So we'll take some comfort there.

Yes, Muhammad, appreciate it. Thank you very much and have a great weekend. You too, Mike. All right. Well, stocks have been surging, although they have lost some altitude to end a volatile week. Up next, HSBC's Max Ketner tells us how he is playing these big market swings. Closing Bell, be right back. Welcome back. Stocks in the green across the board, as the index has tried to rebound from this week's steep sell-off.

My next guest is aggressively overweight stocks, calling recent concerns around an AI bubble overblown. Joining me now is HSBC's Max Ketner. Max, great to. Mitch up with you. So even if the concerns about an AI bubble being dangerous and imminent or overblown, I guess it doesn't mean that the market's not going to try to sort out exactly whether we've overshot in the short term. So what have we been dealing with this week and what signs are you looking for that maybe we've gone through this pullback period? Yeah, hey, Mike, thanks for having me. Look, I think actually I would disagree probably with the

overshoot. I think we've actually starting to undershoot a little bit when we look at For example, some of the sentiment gauges, look at things like the VIX futures curve, you know, look at things like survey-based sentiment, all of their stuff actually looks like actually this is closer to sending buy signals rather than sell signals. So to me, really, things are actually looking a little bit stretched on the downside rather than on the upside. That's number one. And I would also say when we look at, you know, across the equity spectrum, it is and it has not been all about AI this year.

look at, you know, other sectors like industrials, the utilities, excluding the data centers, even energy, you know, despite lower energy prices, even things like, you know, healthcare, all of those sectors are up around about 10% year-to-date. So actually, you know, it has been a pretty broad-based market. Some of those gains now given away, even the equal weight one, and a lot of the shorter-term sentiment gauges actually are increasingly looking like we're genuinely oversold, despite despite only being a tad of being away from the all-time eye. Yes, and Max, just hang on one second while we get down to Washington.

President Trump meeting with New York City mayor-elect Mamdani right now at the White House. Let's listen to it. Incredible race against a lot of smart people, starting with the early primaries against some very tough people, very smart people. And he beat him, and he beat him easily. And I congratulated him. And we talked about some things in very strong common. like housing and getting housing built and food and prices and the price of oil is coming way down. Anything I do is going to be good for New York.

If I can get prices down, it's good for New York. And we've got them down way down from last year. We have, as you know, I've been saying to a lot of people, Walmart said that Thanksgiving this year is exactly 25% less than last year. So that's good for New York, good for everybody. But I just want to congratulate. I think you're going to have hopefully a really great mayor. The better he does, the happier I am, I will say. There's no difference in party.

There's no difference in anything. And we're going to be helping him to make everybody's dream come true, having a strong and very safe New York. And congratulations, Mr. Mayor. Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you. I appreciate it. Please.

I appreciated the meeting with the president. And as he said, it was a productive meeting focused on a place of shared admiration. and love, which is New York City, and the need to deliver affordability to New Yorkers, the eight and a half million people who call our city their home, who are struggling to afford life in the most expensive city in the United States of America. We spoke about rent, we spoke about groceries, we spoke about utilities, we spoke about the different ways in which people are being pushed out, and I appreciated the time with the President.

I appreciated the conversation. I look forward to working together to deliver that affordability for New Yorkers. Thank you very much. Any questions, please? President Trump, Stephen Nelson from the New York Post. I've got a question for you, and then also one for the mayor of left. For you, you've heard Mr. Malmante as a communist. You described why you feel that way.

And also, will you do anything to stop him from arresting Prime Minister Nettingham if he visits to New York? Well, we didn't discuss your second part of the question. And on your first part, I mean, he's got views out there, but who knows? I mean, we're going to see what works or he's going to change also. We all change. It changed a lot. It changed a lot. From when I first came to office, it's now quite a while ago.

It's quite a while. My first term was great. We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. We're doing even better now. We're doing much better now than we did even the first term. And I can tell you, some of my views have changed. And we had discussions on something. I'm not going to discuss what they were, but that I feel very confident that he can do a very good job.

I think he's going to be, I think he is going to surprise him. He's going to surprise some conservative people, actually. And some very liberal people. He won't surprise it because they already like him. And Mr. Montaigne, it sounds like you had a productive discussion. But just days ago, you referred to President Trump as a despot who betrayed the country. He said he would be his worst nightmare and accused him of having a fascist agenda. Are you claiming to retract any of these remarks in order to improve the relationship?

I think both President Trump and I, we are very clear about our position. and our views. And what I really appreciate about the President is that the meeting that we had focused not on places of disagreement, which there are, many, and also focused on the shared purpose that we have in serving New Yorkers. And frankly, that is something that could transform the lives of the 8.5 million people who are currently struggling under a cost of living crisis with one in four living in poverty. And the meeting came back again and again to what it could look like to lift those New Yorkers out of struggle and start to deliver them a city that they could do more than just struggle to afford it, but actually start to live in it. Much worse than a despot, so it's not that insulting. Maybe, I think he'll change his mind after we get to working together. Yes, please. Mr. President, Nathan Rashad from MTV, Lebanon. Good. I would like to ask you a question about the Middle East regarding.

You said that Hezbollah in Lebanon is not in a good position. And Lebanon now is the finite unresolved after Gaza and Syria. Given your assessment, like, what do you say for the Lebanese today? in the United States and Lebanon. And what is your next move to push toward disarmament? Sure. Well, we are pushing for total disarmament of Hamas and, frankly, everybody else. And we actually have peace in the middle.

He says, you know, the king of Saudi Arabia just left yesterday. We had some great meetings, and he's made a contribution toward the United States of more than a trillion dollars. We have now over $20 trillion coming in. No country has ever had anything like that, not even close. close. If you go to $2 trillion or $1 trillion, it's a lot. We have $20 or $21 trillion. I think that Hezbollah has been a problem in Lebanon, a big problem. We're working with Lebanon. We're working with everybody in the Middle East. That's another thing I think we have in common. We want to see peace in the Middle East. And we actually have now, for the first time, peace in the

Middle East after 3,000 years. And now we're going to refine it. And I think you're going to see some very positive things happen. Oh, sure. Oh, I would do that. Absolutely. And if the mayor would like to be here for that meeting, because I know he feels very strongly. I think you feel very, very strongly about peace in the Middle East. We desperately want it. And that's something that I shared with the president that when I spoke to New Yorkers who had voted for the president last November on Hillside Avenue and Fordham Road, I asked them why. I heard again and again two major reasons. One was that they wanted an end to Forever Wars. They wanted an end to the taxpayer dollars we had funding violations of human rights, and they wanted to address the cost of living crisis. And I appreciated the chance to discuss both of those things. He said a lot of my voters actually voted for him, and I'm okay with that. I'll do that. That has been Mayor-Elect of New York, Zoran Mamdani, talking to President Trump in the Oval Office. Let's send her over to Amin Jabbers for more on what was a pretty

friendly exchange at scene. Wow, fascinating, Mike, right? I think a lot of political insiders on both sides of the aisle were kind of spoiling for a fight. And instead, what you see is both leaders here at pains to be on their best behavior, ignoring the bait from the reporters about calling this one a communist, calling that one a fascist. As we watch this unspool here in real time, it's clear that both leaders are committed to sticking to this commentary that they both have a shared agenda focusing on affordability in New York State, in New York City, they both love New York City and want to improve it. And that is some common ground that they can build on here. And what a stark contrast is you see one man standing there, one man sitting there, whether it's party, ideology, generation, religion, approach to the world, these guys could not be more different than they are. And yet the nature of the American system is we see them sitting in the same room at the same time. And there is, I think, Mike, here an element, both of them very active on social media, both of them inspiring passion among their followers.

There is, I think, a political element here of game recognizes gain, and it's very early days. And you heard the president say there, you know, we'll see if he changes as he takes office. I've changed since I've taken office. So, you know, this is early, but both men clearly at pains to be on their best behavior here, Mike. Yeah, for sure. And, yeah, as you allude to, both having won elections when nobody really initially thought they had much of a shot to do so the first time. Amon, thank you very much. All right, Max, we are tracking the biggest movement.

as we head into the close. We'll be right back. We are now in the closing belt market zone. Mackenzie Segalo is watching the crypto space for us. Kate Rogers tracking the action in food stocks. And Courtney Reagan standing by with what to watch from retail next week. And Wilmington Trust Megan Shoe is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Mack, we'll start with you. Crypto is still the story, though maybe the selling is calm just a bit.

Yeah, but even with Bitcoin coming back, it is still trading near seven-month lows on pace for its worst month since June of 2022. All coins are sliding, too, with Ether, Solana, and XRP, all down by double-digit percentages on the week. And then there's the digital asset treasury trade. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is down more than 42% in a month. And that's important because Strategy and the spot crypto ETFs were supposed to be the reliable buyers. Now both are backing off. Strategies Bitcoin Premium is face. ETF holders are underwater and city noting today that long-term wallets are showing signs of

trimming their positions and in a market with thinning liquidity, that kind of selling hits harder. But Bitcoin holding above that key $80,000 level today has helped ease some pressure giving a small lift to crypto proxy names like Coinbase. Mike? All right, Mac, thank you so much. Kate, been one of the weaker groups in the market, but some relief out there for restaurants. Definitely, Mike. So every restaurant name spent most of the day in the green. this Friday, with some of the most beaten down stocks year-to-date, actually rallying higher than the rest. Sweet Green, Kava and Chipotle, among the sector's leaders for the day, Kava and Sweet Green up around 11%. Chipotle up just under 5%. Fast food names that bucked the trend yesterday during the sell-off

also continued their climb today. McDonald's, Young Brands, Restaurant Brands International, and Wendy's all seeing nice gains. The coffee stocks as well, Starbucks and Dutch Bros, up around 3.5 and 8% each. Brazil tariff relief, of course, could have something to do, with those moves regarding coffee. And finally, for the week, nice games, gains, rather, among the casual dining games, Brinker and Cracker Barrel, as well as Wingstop and Chipotle. This, of course, Mike, as the retail earning cycle, continues, and a pattern that we saw with the restaurants more trading down,

more caution, and more discretion around where and how they're spending right now, Mike. Back over to you. Yeah, exactly. And, and, Cord, I guess the question is whether some of the numbers can come in better than feared in that context. Yeah, exactly. Kate just made me really hungry, too, but Tuesday is a big day for retail. You've got Best Buy, Coles, Abercrombie, Urban Outfitters, all reporting earnings as if we don't have enough retail next week. And that's, of course, days before. Retail's biggest days of the year, Black Friday,

Cyber Monday. Now, the reports this week, to Kate's point, they didn't all have the same threads, though. Walmart and Gap had stronger than expected results, and executives didn't express too much concern about the health of the consumer, regardless of income. But then Target, Home Depot, low as they did point to macro pressures and a more, quote, choiceful consumer. And they pointed that out as reason for their weaker than expected results. So it's a little harder to forecast how next week's retailers will report. But we know that Best Buy is a big player for the holidays and it's been under tariff pressure. A lot of the countries of import, the biggest ones for them do have high levels of tariff. Coles, it's still operating under an interim CEO, but it's discussed writing last holiday's wrongs. This year, they think they have a good place. plan. We'll see. Obviously, that stock has been under a lot of pressure, although it has seen a gentle move to the upside over the last couple months. Yes, for sure. Court, thank you very much. And Megan, even with today's bounce in the indexes, you still have the S&P down 2% on the week, almost 5% off of its highs. Has this pullback kind of changed the risk reward in your view

or given a signal as to where to go next within the market? Yeah, I think this has been a bit of a healthy development for the market. We've been watching with a bit of trepidation that the market just keeps continuing to climb higher. And it's been a pretty significant momentum trade. I think what's been really remarkable looking underneath the surface has been the underperformance over the past six months or so of higher quality names. So I think what we're seeing is a little bit of a shift in sentiment. Valuations matter. We know they always do, but getting more attention from the market, balance sheets matter, how the AI trade is being funded, or the AI investment, rather.

All of that matters. And I think this sets us up for a better next six months for higher quality companies. So higher quality, certainly they were left behind, as you did have a lot of the speculative, more aggressively valued things, work into the October highs. But what do you need, if anything, from the economy from here, those types of companies to work. Earnings have been good, but everyone's wondering whether this soft patch and growth is going to give way to a re-acceleration next year. Yeah, I think the Goldilocks scenario would be really good for high-quality companies.

I think you'd look for a stabilization in the labor market, particularly in small business, as well as some of the more cyclical sectors of the economy, so the Fed cutting to neutral, but not needing to go much lower than that. And I think continued resilience, I'll say, of the consumer overall, though we know we have a bit of a two-speed economy going on right now. For sure. And yet with that, I mean, certainly Goldilocks seems pretty comfortable for most. But you still think the market is underpricing recession risk?

And what does that mean as an investor? Yeah, we have about a 45% probability of recession over the next 12 months, which is uncomfortably high. And I think a little bit higher than what we see from the rest of Wall Street. I think that's mainly on some of the cracks that we've seen in the labor market, but we are still in a data fog, and I think over the next few weeks we should get a little bit more clarity on the direction of the labor market

and whether we're seeing maybe the early innings of a productivity boom because companies are investing in AI in place of jobs or if it's just a softening backdrop. Yeah, that is what we're in suspense about, I guess, in general. Megan, really appreciate it today. Thank you very much and have a good weekend. As we get about 30 seconds from the close, S&P 500 has come in off of its highs. It's still up 9 tenths of 1%.

You have the Russell 2,000, still up 2 and 3 quarters percent, still on pace for significant losses for the week as a whole. You did see a little bit of a bid in those high beta stocks that got hit so hard over the course of the week. The volatility index has retreated back below 24, but that is still elevated in this environment. If that doesn't have a closing bell will send him to overtime. It's Morgan Brennan and Brian Sullivan.