Closing Bell - Closing Bell 1/16/26

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And welcome to closing bell. I'm Mike Santoli, and for Scott Wapner. This make-a-break hour begins with stocks fighting to break even for the week as swift rotations continue to churn under the surface. Policy trial balloons fly and investors prep for earnings reports to accelerate from here. Here is your scorecard with 60 minutes remaining in regulation. The S&P 500 just above the flat line remains unable to surmount that 7,000 threshold. We've had about five approaches within a half a percent over the last six trading sessions. Not quite. quite there. Nasdaq, not much better, still up about the same amount. Russell 2000, though, continues to outperform with the fast money hunting for highly leveraged plays on an economic upturn and some speculative themes. For the week, the equal-weighted S&P is solidly positive, and semis have been a standout, both today and for the full week. That story has re-engaged for sure. Ten-year Treasury of meantime is pushing to a four-and-a-half month high. It had been capped by about the 4.2 level for a while. now close to 423. We begin with our talk of the tape. Is the consensus 2026 trade for a broadening market geared for a cyclical upturn intact, oral policy flux, and perhaps higher rates complicate that story? Let's ask our panel. Investco is Brian Leavitt, CNBC contributor, Requisite Capitals, Bryn Tawkington, and Ned Davis Research is Ed Clishold. Welcome to you all. Brian, you heard the setup there. I mean, from one perspective, you know, we started the week with this, you know, something of a bombshell.

about, you know, maybe a threat to Fed independent Sunday night, market sells off, comes back. We've kind of absorbed a lot of these volleys, right, the credit card rate cap and all the rest of it. So I guess you could look at it as resilience or we're kind of stuck. I would look at it as resilience. And there's a lot to like about this market. I mean, even if you look at the GDP now numbers, you're north of 5% productivity looks good, interest rates, even though they've gone up a little bit or are not at a challenging level. oil prices have gone up a little, not a challenging level. So it's hard to be bearish on these markets.

There is a lot to like. Now, what I'm watching, you know, and certainly staring at Sunday into Monday is the inflation expectations. You know, the three year was sitting at around two and a quarter felt great. I loved it, right? Three year break even moved up to 240 that day. That's, you know, that's still price stability where I come from, but it's a pretty big move. So we want to watch that. That's the one thing that I would be concerned that could trip up these markets if the Fed starts to lose. lose expectations of price stability, but so far so good. Yeah, and we'll talk a little more about that, about the kind of horse race for the next Fed chair and how the market's reading that at some point. But, Ed, talk a little bit about how you came into this year positioned and what you're looking for for confirmation of that stance. If we've been overweight stocks for quite a while,

that's still in play. The market has broadened from a technical perspective. I think we're starting to price in. It's a pretty good economic growth numbers from Q1, thanks to tax returns from One Big Beautiful Bill. Now, what we've been on a look for is that the runoff from the One Big Beautiful Bill tax bump is going to leave pretty quickly. It's not nearly as big as what it was in 2018. And so you could see growth decelerate right at a time when you're going to get a new Fed share. Usually there's some consternation around that. So there's a potential for a market poll. But as we sit right now, the conditions look pretty good. So we're sticking with our overweight.

We've actually moved down the caps spectrum a little bit from large caps to mid caps to pick up on that better economic growth and broadening from a technical perspective. And Bryn, there's really been a lot to follow in terms of the push and pull within this market. I mentioned semis have just been ripping. They're up again. It's been a familiar story, but it won't quit. software getting blasted. We've been talking about that for days. We have a sell-the-news response in general on the bank, so it's kind of firmed up a little bit here. So what stands out to you as you look for dislocations or trends to play? I mean, I think you continue to see just incredible returns in metals and minings, which overall people are very, very under-allocated to the silvers,

the platyms, the coppers, et cetera. I think that you're going to see. in general, those continue to do well. I think software just can't get out of its own way, which, you know, Microsoft is more than a software company, but look at Adobe. It's just, there's got to be a lot of hedge fund shorts. Sentiment is so bad around that. And so I think there's just whipson when you look underneath the market of such big dispersion between winners and losers, and we're only in the early stages of January. So as I'm thinking through the rest of the month and February, after that. We're kind of in the appetizer of the dinner course with earnings. We'll get to the main course in a couple weeks with the Googles and Amazon's. And then I guess the dessert will come

in late February with Nvidia. And I think we're going to continue to see they're going to spend a lot of money. I do think we'll continue also to see a big dispersion between those Mag 7, which we talk about, because investors more and more, and Microsoft is a good example, want to see some ROI line of site on the spend. And I think Microsoft and meta in particular are probably in most people's crosshairs, meta, much more so than Microsoft. So I think it'll be a really important earnings for those two companies, you know, specifically. Brian, I wonder what you think of whether, you know, the signals have been so clear that, in fact, you know, the economy's got some tailwinds kicking in. Of course, you start any year. You have a 70% chance of market's going to be on. Right.

Right. So it's obviously a stack deck in that sense. But I'm looking at corporate bond spreads being super, super tight already. And a little bit of these kind of streams of, I would say, heady sentiment. You know, I mean, the microcaps I keep talking about, they're up 9% as a group this year. And it just seems as if some of these risk appetite indicators that the street comes out with or showing that people are kind of fully exposed to this market. So is that just a bull market acting like one? or do you think that we have some payback to do?

Yeah, it's pretty classic of a mid-to-mid, late part of the cycle. And so the challenge is, you know, when you're early in the cycle, investors don't believe it. In the middle-to-middle late part of the cycle, spreads are tight, and valuations start to get rich. So therein lies the rub for people. What I always focus on are there signs that this is starting to break? And, you know, if you would see credit spreads blowing out, you would see bankers tightening lending standards,

you would see the Fed needing to raise interest rates. So none of that appears to exist right now, which means, you know, cycles likely to play out. I think what's even more interesting is this direction of the economy. The economy was going nowhere globally for a while, and we're now picking up. And, you know, you have policies in China, policies in the U.S., the ECB has already lowered rates. So you, and fiscal spend in Japan. Yeah, fiscal is like open spigots everywhere. Yeah, so you get this lift.

that's when you start to look where value exists in the market and where did it exist? Micro, small, non-U.S. And, you know, it's been a short period of time. I mean, Equalweeds been outperforming the S&P for three months, right? It's not, you know, that's after a very prolonged period of market cap dominance. So I think we're still, I think there's still a runway in this. I'll watch the leading indicators to see if things are rolling over, see if the central bankers can't ease, but so long as they can, the market should broaden. Yeah. Well, Speaking of the central bankers, everyone stay with me. The president making fresh comments on the race for Fed chair.

Steve Leesman joins me now with more on where that stands, Steve. Yeah, President Trump throwing a wrench into the outlook for the next Fed chair, Mike saying he wants to keep Kevin Hassett the once presumed runaway favorite for the job, wants to keep him in his current position at the White House. I see Kevin's in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are if you want to know the truth. Kevin Hassett is so good.

I'm saying, wait a minute. If I move them, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don't talk much. I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me. The comments sent the odds soaring for former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh in the Kowshi market there. Fed Governor Kevin Worse, he's the long-running second choice. Warsh has openly praised the President's economic policies and been highly critical of the Federal Reserve and its conduct during inflation.

Treasury yields also rose presumably on the belief that Worse would be. at least somewhat more independent of the president than Hassett would. And the president obviously has campaigned publicly and harshly for lower rates. Though there was also some stronger economic data to push rates higher this morning. Probabilities for rate cuts little changed on in futures markets, at least through June. That's when the next cut is expected. But they did drop slightly longer term assigned the market could see a Warsh Fed as a somewhat more hawkish fed, Mike. There you go.

And so therefore, perhaps a little bit more of a, of a, of a, push back to inflation longer term. Steve, thank you very much. Ed, how would you frame the stakes here for the market and for the economy in terms of not specifically what person gets in there as Fed Chair, but where rates go from here? Because as I look at it, it doesn't seem as if there's a tremendous distance between what, you know, members of the committee believe is doable in the next several months on rates. Yeah, Michael, it's not about the next couple of meetings and whether or not we're going to get 25 basis points, cuts, or not. But if you look at what's happened going back over 100 years when you get a new Fed

share, the market tends to test that person. On average, you get a 15% correction within the first six months. That's bigger than what you normally get over any six-month period. There's going to be a crisis that's going to pop up. And because this is a new person, the market kind of shoots first and asks questions later until the Fed chair can prove themselves like Greenspan did in that 9. And then we had it with Powell in December of 2018. And the obvious potential crisis would be under overfed independence.

And that could definitely come up if inflation happens to run a little bit hotter, if economic growth is stronger, labor market tightens up a little bit. Why would we need another cut? So that's a very, very much an open question. But it could be anything else. But you throw on the fact that midterm years, there's thoughts of consternation going into those elections, it's a very much. elections, that's a macro combination that could lead to a pullback, regardless of which Kevin or whoever else the first name is happens to be chair of the Fed. Yeah, that would be an interesting twist if the crisis the new Fed Chair had to face was the

new Fed Chair's appointment, which raised questions about Fed independence. Who knows we'll see that. Bryn, you know, we do have the likes of JP Morgan saying, you know, no cuts this year, And that's based on the economic call. That essentially we're going to have acceleration. You might have inflation hang around here for a while. And I wonder if we'd be okay with that. Well, I mean, if you look at small caps and you look at the economically sensitive parts of the market,

whether we have two cuts or we go from three to two cuts, you know, small caps and the broadening of the market don't seem to have that hiccup effect that they have had the past couple of years. When any time you're going to take one rate cut away, instantly small caps went back. down. I see their gathering steam. And so I think that I think we'll probably get one or two regardless. It doesn't seem like January is the date. But I do want to say, Mike, when we're talking about the economy picking up, people are saying there's more productivity in GDP. I mean, I would somewhat question that, just like looking at the Atlanta GDP data, two percentage point of the bump that we got, two full percentage points was the trade deficit. So it wasn't productivity. And so I think

people need to actually go to the website and take a look at that before they start saying we have these big productivity gains. And so what is Aipa if the Supreme Court does that due to GDP? And so I think we will fly around here a little bit, but I do think we'll probably get one or two cuts. Yeah, productivity estimates on a three-month basis is pretty, you know, pretty impossible. And then I guess, yeah, you have exports of gold and all this other noise in those numbers. So we obviously need more to make a conclusion there. And hang on everyone. We're going to now go to Christina Parts-Nevel as it has been a big week for the semi.

She's going to bring us up to date. Yeah, Mike, you really had chip stocks basking in the afterglow of Taiwan's semi-strong earnings yesterday. And upbeat guidance. The chip manufacturing giant reinforced that AI demand does remain sustainable just in the next few years, sparking just a wave of upgrades across the chip space. Bank of America lifted ASML to a buy. Key Bank also lifted applied materials to a buy. applied materials hit an all-time high yesterday.

And so the whole semi-cap group just really has been climbing ever since. Micron, for example, today, that's another memory name. That jumped about 6% after former TSM co-CEO Mark Louis disclosed a nearly $8 million share purchase. He also now works at Micron. MZUho's Jordan Klein is asking, how could anyone be short memory names when even insider buying since these stocks ripping higher? And Invidia, now VINDA has kind of been stuck in. neutral lately, up 1.5% on the week, but that doesn't mean Wall Street's losing faith in this

name. Oppenheimer is calling Nvidia the, quote, AI Castle on the Hill with best in class performance for both training and inference. And the outlier, though, I want to just focus on Intel. Down about 2%. Jeffreys warns the chip giant faces capacity constraints and headwinds from weak PC sales. Earnings are next Thursday. Perhaps today is profit taking, given the Trump put that we had earlier in the week, whenever President Trump tweets. about Intel tends to go up, so it could be some profit-taking. But we'll get some news next week, that's for sure. Yeah, obviously for some PCs still matter. Christina, thank you very much. So, Brian, are we at the phase where what's good for the semis is maybe not as good for the rest of

the people spending on all this? Or do you think it still can go up in tandem? Yeah, I mean, the semiconductors have this long road ahead of them of opportunity, given the amount of spending that we're going to see. And I think what investors have come to realize more is the competition that's going to exist in the other spaces. And you think of the big names, these were companies, the so-called Mag 7, or at least many of them, that were monopolistic-type businesses that weren't, you know, heavy investment. They were investment-like businesses. So this is a bit of a different story.

And it's, we know there's going to be winners and losers in all of this from who's providing us with the tools to, you know, to generate artificial intelligence. But for Nvidia, you know, it doesn't necessarily matter that, you know, the winner is still going to have to use the most advanced chip. So that story continues. And, you know, I'm not the first to say this, but it becomes increasingly more interesting this year about the types of businesses that benefit from artificial intelligence. Many of them are, you know, old economy type businesses that, you know, have been sitting on their back for a while that now do type start to see the productivity gains. Yeah, I see a lot of those screens of companies that have, you know, either high, certain, type of labor costs or room to expand margins that way.

You know, Bryn, when it comes to Nvidia in particular, everyone observes stocks look pretty inexpensive. It's got several quarters of, you know, pretty much these sold-out order books in hand. Do you take anything away from the fact that the stock's been sideways for months? Yeah, I mean, if you look at tech supposed to grow, what, 26 percent, Nvidia is looking to earnings at 50 to 55 percent. And to your point, the stock cannot get above 200 and stay there. And so I think we're just in this place of skepticism around maybe margins coming down longer term. There's more competition. I think they're all making money. The moat is getting,

the piece of the pie is getting bigger and bigger. But just like technically and being pragmatic, 200 seems to be outer Earth orbit that it can't get through. And I still think Google, is a great one because if you think about they have cloud, they have chips with TPUs, they're vertically integrated, they now have Apple, and so I think within the mega caps, you're going to continue to see Google in that pole position

because you've got a little bit of everything inside of one company. Yeah, even self-driving cars if you want it. Ed, quickly, I mentioned earlier a little bit of hesitation in the S&P 500 as we approach 7,000. What do you read into that, if anything?

consolidation around a round number and the fact that the valuation discrepancy between the mega caps and the smithcap space has gotten to the point where some people are looking to diversify and if you just look at the mag seven they're there about 35 percent of the market there are 28 percent of earnings that seven point spread is kind of the upper end of the range so maybe we take a We take a step back a little bit, but ultimately, you know, there's a chance for the market to push through this 7,000 level on the new highs. Yeah, sounds good. Ed, Bryn, Brian, really appreciate the time today. Have a great weekend. And we are just getting started. Netflix shares falling roughly 15% since announcing its acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery last month. Up next, a Netflix shareholder weighs in on whether the stock is starting to look attractive ahead of its earnings on Tuesday.

We are live in New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. Netflix, getting ready to report results on Tuesday. Joining me now is Netflix shareholder Kevin Simpson, Capital Wealth Planning founder and CIO. Kevin, good to see you. Obviously, Netflix, it's a deal stock now. It's way off its levels from before it agreed to buy Warner Brothers Discovery or most of that company. Shareholders have kind of voted that, you know, changes the story.

Maybe it's not what they bought Netflix for. but how are you viewing that deal in conjunction with what you expect to hear from earnings next week? Yeah, I think, Mike, that Netflix is going to really be under the microscope on Tuesday, but maybe not for the reasons that we think. You know, traditionally we want to go into the earnings season, looking at the numbers, analyzing where they've been, what the guidance looks like, especially after the last quarter, Netflix missed on operating margins. So that will be an important statistic.

Bigger picture analysts are expecting about 16 to 17% revenue growth. That translates to just under $12 billion, about $0.55 a share. So a decent report, all things being equal, you know, you would be impressed with Netflix's number. The stock might go up a little bit. But really, I think it all boils down to the postgame presser, the conference following the earnings report, and listening to what management has to say about the acquisition. because without any information there, you've got a stock that's going to hover around these

prices probably for the next 12 to 18 months. Stock's actually off 25 to 30 percent from its highs. So I'm going to be paying a lot of attention to the earnings call. Would you prefer that Netflix complete this deal and that they prevail or, you know, if they walked away and everybody can refocus on the long-term secular story? You know, I'm kind of torn there, Mike. I wear my heart on my sleeve. I love this stock for the long term.

I think the acquisition is incredibly accretive. As a consumer of the product, you think about Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, D.C., kind of what all these things could look like in a Netflix ecosystem. But as a short-term, you know, capitalist, it would be better probably

if Paramount Skydance came in, took the deal, wrote a check for $2.8 billion to Netflix, and we would see the shares go up appreciably. So I think shorter term, it might be better for them not to get it. Longer term, I definitely think it's a phenomenal acquisition and really their first one of, and one of massive consequence. Sure. Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know, they're not making any more 100-year-old movie studios

after Wonders that you might be able to get down the road. In terms of, now, they're no longer giving shareholder number, I mean, subscriber numbers at Netflix. what's your thought about the strategy of more and live events, the podcast initiative and all the rest of it? Is that showing that Netflix is consolidating its advantage or it's kind of stretching for growth? Yeah, that's a good question also. I'm of the camp that they're doing things smart and that they're doing things for profit down the road. The idea that they're bringing live sports into the Netflix universe is something that they said they would never. do. They also said that they would never have advertising, and we know how well that ad tier is

playing out, and we'll continue. The more they get the sports right, the more they get the advertising right, it's just an incredible trajectory for margins moving forward. The podcast acquisition of Iheart is good. You know, you've got Spotify, which is a fantastic company. I don't think this eats into that too much, but I think it just broadens Netflix in the right way. W.W.E., some of the boxing exhibitions that they had have been really cool, NFL and everything else that they can do with live sports moving forward. It's an incredible runway. I mean, I think if you look at this pullback as an opportunity for an investor, you can certainly buy the stock here. You just can't expect to see a whole lot happen. Again, 12, 18 months in your thesis until something happens

with the acquisition or not. Yeah, for sure. Just to pivot, I mean, and some other stocks on the move, I know Delta Airlines was one that caught your eye. It obviously pulled back on pretty good results. So what's your view there? Yeah, we bought this in the growth strategy. I mean, I honestly can't remember the last time we've owned an airline. They had an earnings report that we thought was really solid. And like a lot of companies this earning season, and I know it's still a small sample size,

but they give somewhat tepid guidance and the stock sell off after the earnings. We looked at that as an opportunity to buy and initiate a position and misnamed. I think the market still thinks it maybe a little bit incorrectly from a free cash flow story that we're looking at. Three billion in free cash flow is a really big deal. This is all about the front of the plane, profit margins, best of breed, best in class, if the business traveler, if the international traveler continue to engage the way that they have, they've really got their debt story, their debt problems put behind them in large part.

They're paying a dividend, they're buying back shares, they're fiscally responsible. You have to think about energy costs as you do with any airline. But I think if we're going to own one, this gave us an opportunity to sneak in a little bit cheaper than maybe we should have gotten the stock. And I like it longer term, you know, provided they continue to deliver. Yeah. So down about 3% this week, but still actually kind of holding up there on a one-year basis. Kevin, appreciate the time. Thank you.

Thanks, Mike. Have a great weekend. All right, you too. Coming up, energy stocks, getting slammed. We'll tell you why. Don't miss Joe Kernan's interview with President Trump from Davos at his Wednesday on CNBC. Closing Bell is back after this break. Welcome back. We're getting some breaking comments from Fed Governor Jefferson.

Steve Leesman joins us with those. Hey, Steve. Hey, Mike. Yeah, our second Fed governor speaking today, making comments from the other side of the policy spectrum. Fed's vice chair, Phil Jefferson, saying the current policy is well positioned and now is in a range close to neutral. That's the opposite. other side of what Mickey Bowman said earlier today where she was more dovish and suggested she would favor further rate cuts. But Jefferson saying current policy puts the economy in a good position moving forward. Inflation is still above target. He points out, but he sees it moving back towards 2%. The tariff impact, he suggests, will not be long-lasting according to his own forecast.

He does concede that downside risk to employment have risen, but he says the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady for the rest of this year, and the labor market is not deteriorating rapidly. You remember, Bowman made very concerning remarks about the outlook for jobs. Jefferson expects a solid pace of growth around 2%. So my kind of scoping out the parameters of the debate on the Fed, it looks like a large number so far. We had three yesterday, and now Jefferson today suggesting this pauses on maybe for a little bit, while others especially, it looks like the Trump appointees, want to forge ahead with further cuts. Yeah, the core of the committee in wait-and-see mode, it would appear, Steve.

Thank you. Up next, Warren Pyes explains why the economy is in a peak Goldilocks environment and what that could mean for markets. And a quick programming note, beginning Tuesday, I'll be co-hosting an all-new closing bell overtime along with Melissa Lee, live from the NASDAQ. Don't miss the premiere. It's Tuesday at 4 p.m. Eastern. Closing bell is back in tune.

Welcome back, a Goldilocks environment and gold itself are beginning to emerge as some key themes of 2026. Here to discuss as co-founder of 314 research, Warren Pies. Warren, good to see you. What's a Goldilocks environment in the current moment? I know it's not too hot, not too cold, but how would you characterize what we're looking at in terms of the macro backdrop? Yeah, great to be with you again. For me, Goldilocks is the ideal place for the equity market. And that means that we have cyclical disinflation and those tailwinds are with us.

It's almost automatic when you look out at the economy on a cyclical basis that we're going to have shelter disinflating. We're going to have oil cooperating in our view. And you have a labor market that's weakening. And I think it's weakened on a cyclical basis, but also potentially more on a longer-term structural basis with AI. And so that alleviates some of the Fed's Philip curve concerns about inflation. So you have that.

But on the other hand, we are going to get this. fiscal expansion in our view during the first part of this year and that's starting to be reflected in earnings guidance and things like that. So one big beautiful bill will kick in. You have tax rebates, you have bonus depreciation. And ultimately the net net is just like close to a 1% 100 basis points of fiscal expansion, which is significant. And so when I put those two factors together, that's a very good backdrop.

And then you add in rate cuts and you add in the fact that the Fed says, yes, the economy is going to grow, unemployment rate would be steady, and we're still going to cut the rates multiple times this year. I don't know. That's a pretty great backdrop for equities in our view. Yeah, I guess, I mean, where would there be any offsets or where would the market start to move in a direction that would suggest either going to be too hot or, you know, we're not going to get as much fed as we thought, or how do you think it might diverge from that if you had to do the scenario analysis? Yeah, our best guess is that the main risk towards the market come from an overheating.

And that would be towards the at least second half of the year and probably even later than that in my view. Of course, there's always the risk that the economy could the labor market could crack or something like that. But again, we just had an employment report and it was very goldilocks, not to overuse the term. So my best guess is that once we get through into the second half of this year, the reheating could start to bring into view the end of the Fed's cut cycle. And I think that's where there's been a lot of premature concerns around rates in the bond market, but that's where I think that a true curve steepening could start to take hold more than what we've seen, something where the two versus tens gets over, well over 100 basis points as the market starts thinking

about the next move being not a cut, but maybe a hike. And that's late late this year in our view at best, but that's the catalyst for risk that we're seeing. And so for the first half of the year when you do think there's a pretty clear path ahead in terms of the cyclical upturn and friendly fed, is it as simple as, you know, own more cyclical parts of the market or is there another way to play? I think this is going to be a broader year than we've seen the last three. These are the last three years have been three of the most narrow years over the last seven of the three of the most the seven most the seven most narrow years going back to 1960 by fewest constituents beating the index the beginning of this year we've had over three hundred eleven stocks beating the index that's a crazy high breadth from that perspective and you've seen mag seven underperform I don't think that that's sustainable given our view for the market I think that tech's going to reassert its leadership and then you're going to have these non-tech AI banks beneficiaries and a little bit of cyclicality start to come along for a right. So it will be broader this year, but not as broad as we've seen at the beginning of the first half of January. And I don't even think that's very healthy for the market, to be honest, that amount of

that kind of leadership. So I think it's big tech. I think Mag 7 breaks out from this consolidation and reasserts some form of leadership. We mentioned gold in the lead up there. And I know you've been behind this trade for a while. With what silver, is doing gone vertical in this way. Is it changing the equation for actually what's going on there? I think that there is a little bit. So if you cut this over trade, I'd say congratulations. My recommendation would be rebalance aggressively to your target weight, these types of things. It's gone parabolic, and there's definitely a speculative fervor here. I mean, with gold, I think there's a true, we laid out a set of conditions that we think to find this

new secular bull market for gold. And they're, you know, silver's like high beta gold, but central banks are not buying silver. They're buying gold. The diversification out of U.S. dollar assets is a gold story. And silver is now coming along for the ride and there's a lot of speculative fervor. So I prefer gold over silver just from, that's my risk tolerance in the way I see the markets here. And silver is getting crazy. But I mean, I'm not calling the top. I don't know where this train stopped, to be honest. So yeah, it is more sign of this secular bowl. Once it gets crazy, it's a short step to even crazier. So we'll see how it goes.

Warren. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thanks, Mike. All right. Up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. Christina Parchinevel is standing by with that. Hey, Christina. Hi, Mike. Well, we're going to tell you which weight stock or which weight loss stock is jumping on strong demand for its new pill and the biotech name storing triple digits this week on blockbuster guidance. Those movers and more when we come back.

14 minutes until the closing bell. Let's get back to Christina for a look at the key stocks to watch. Let's start with shares of Novo Nordisk. They're jumping on a report of a strong start to sales of its oral weight loss treatment. That would be the Govi pill, which potentially had over 3,100 prescriptions just filled in the first week of the launch, according to Lee-Rink partners. And that's why you're seeing shares up over 8%. Shares of AST's space mobile also higher after the company was picked as an eligible

contractor for the U.S. missile defense agency's Shield program. It's aimed to support the Pentagon's Golden Dome Initiative to protect against any aerial attacks. Those shares up 13%. And immunity bio shares are soaring 35% after climbing 31% just yesterday. The moves came after the company said it expects revenue from its bladder cancer drug to climb 700% compared to last year. Earlier this week, the company also said the Saudi Food and Drug Authority approved the drug for not. non-small cell lung cancer. Shares are up 170% this year alone. Wild.

It can happen in low-price biotech. Christina, thank you very much. Up next, what's weighing on Apple? That's stock pacing for its seventh straight weekly loss. That and much more when we take you inside the market zone. We are now in the closing bell market zone. Truest Wells, Keith Lerner, is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Pippa Stevens, on what has energy stocks slum.

today. Steve Kovac is here on Apple's rough run and Sima Modi on the dive in software stocks. Pippa, a little bit of a turn for energy this latter part of the week. That's right. Mike, so we are seeing big moves today in the utility sector, specifically as the president calls on tech companies to pay for the power required to run their data centers. The administration urging PJM, that's the regional grid operator, to hold an emergency auction so that tech companies can bid on long-term power agreements. Now, we are seeing a sell-off, in incumbent, independent power producers like Constellation, Talin, and Vistra,

since more available power on the grid could cut into the profits they get from providing guaranteed capacity to PJM. On the flip side, gas turbine makers like GE-Vernova and Siemens Energy are rising, although there is a pretty big backlog for those turbines. Small modular reactor companies like Oaklo and New Scale also getting a boost,

with Jeffrey Singh, Williams and Qantas services could also benefit from a bigger infrastructure build, but Mike, we are still waiting to hear from PGA, on what this will actually look like. Yeah, it's kind of amazing, Pippa. Some of the themes within this sector that seem so bankable, you know,

in terms of the new capacity, the constellations of the world, all of a sudden can be upended when we don't really know what it's going to compute to. And I think that the fact that we don't know, that's what this all comes down to, and that is one of the issues

that this emergency auction could potentially address. And that is the fact that load forecasts are really all over the place. It feels like almost every single day we get a new study about just how much power data centers are going to require. And that makes it really hard for grid operators like PJM or utility that might be building a gas turbine site to actually put in that capital when they're not sure. Are the parties on the other side going to show up and actually need all of that power? And so this option could in theory, you know, give us more certainty on that front, but certainly a big move, particularly in these IPPs that had such a big run in the last year.

Sure. Yeah, looking to de-risk that investment. Pippa, thank you very much. Steve. What seems to be behind this slump in Apple? Yeah, well, we're well off those record highs from the iPhone 17 optimism. We saw last fall. And look, that's all gone now. And the focus, really, Mike, is on artificial intelligence. So let's talk about what happened this week. There was that deal that Apple and Google announced that Apple will use Gemini's AI technology to power those upcoming versions of Siri that's been delayed for about a year. But that's not boosting the stock, though, because it doesn't look to be a real sales generator. As Bloomberg and the Financial Times have reported, Apple's actually going to be paying Google a licensing fee for Gemini, which is different than that lucrative search deal where Google writes Apple about a $20 billion check every year. So it can be that default search engine on Apple gadgets.

So what to watch for next? You got the earnings coming up here on the 29th. Potentially more hints when that new version of Siri will launch. Most expect that to happen this spring. and even more AI features coming at the annual WWDC software event in June. But I'll also note there have been some reports this week about Apple getting squeezed on supplies on the chip side and also some competition, even with Nvidia, to get space over there at TSMC to fabricate all those chips. And I guess we can throw in there, among all those other questions that are hovering on the horizon,

is the fate of Tim Cook and to talk about its successor. Yeah, that's always going to be a question going in. There was a big New York Times story about that, a week. ago just backing up, just more evidence. That report said Tim Cook has been telling people he's tired and may want to step back sooner than later. But no indication that's imminent. Keep in mind, Apple is going to have their 50th anniversary coming up in April. You've got to imagine he's going to want to stick around at least for that. But there's some more exciting stuff coming even next year that he might want to stick around for. Yeah. Well, if it's in April, that would be big news.

If he doesn't stick around for that. Hi, Steve. Thanks very much. Thanks. Seema, no relief for the software stocks. No, I think what happened this week, Mike, is there has been this acknowledgement that competition is there. We have acknowledged that there are new players that can provide these AI agents. So the debate now, Mike, is how quickly can companies embrace these new development tools and build their own fleet of AI agents.

I think that's what the market wants clarity on. Until then, we've seen sentiment really sour across the whole sector. But if we can put out some specific names, for example, 5-9, one of the hardest hit names today, that's one of the software names that functions in the country. call center space and has been labeled by analysts as one of the places we could see more disruption by AI. And some of the biggest losers so far this month, Clavio, HubSpot, and Asana, they all operate in the application layer. That's a specific subsector within software that a lot of investors are looking to for some type of disruption. But there are still a few

winners that we're going to follow, specifically the companies that congregate and aggregate a lot of data. So think about Snowflake, which recently got a positive mention at Morgan Stanley. one of the names that is actually higher in the IGD software ETO. Fascinating. I mean, this is a group that's kind of uniquely susceptible to any questions about the long-term value of their competitive mode and how sticky their customers are in terms of their subscription. So things like Salesforce and ServiceNow, people thought that we had decades of them having a hold on customers. What are they saying in answer to these criticisms?

I think right now it's that quiet period right ahead of the earnings season where we're going to want that commentary from CEOs about how they're looking at this competition. Is it something that they could see displaced their business? Is it a potential acquisition that would allow them to beef up their inorganic strategies? So I think that's going to be the big question, especially when you look at the large caps versus the small, the mid-cap companies that may not have those options available at hand. For sure. Seema, thank you. Thank you.

Keith, talk a little bit about the start of this year and what it's told you about the character of this market. Yeah, well, great to be with you, Mike. It's interesting. We're talking about a broadening trade within the overall market, but within tech, you're actually seeing more diversion. So, you know, a lot of difference from last year overall. But I do think what we're seeing when we look at, you know, industrial is up 7%, small caps up 7% for the year, tech kind of flat. I think we have one, you know, a rotation. January tends to be a mean reversion month.

And there's some, you know, obviously optimism about this economic uptick. But we're also just seeing things that were being up like. Staples, which in theory shouldn't really benefit that much from an economic uptick also up. So it's really a broad-based rally, both in the U.S. And Mike, we follow over 40 countries globally, and all of those countries are above their 200-day move in average. So that just speaks to the breadth of this global market. Yeah, there's no doubt it's a globally synchronous move at this point.

But you mentioned the Staples rally, which was very sharp and nobody was positioned for it, really. And I wonder if it was so sharp just because you have this. this wild churn in the market, you have these, you know, quop players or whoever out there, it's just getting caught off sides repeatedly. I wonder how we can find any signal in that noise. Yeah, one thing we looked at coming into this year, Staples, I believe, on a three-year basis, has underperformed by more than 60% relative to the S&P.

That's one of the most dramatic underperformance we've seen in history. So all you need, when the rubber band's backstretched is a little bit of good news. I'd also say, hey, Mike, the top holding in the Staples sector is Walmart, And they actually benefited from some of the AI trade, too, in some ways. Yes, Walmart and Costco's in there as well. So you guys are still overweight tech and communication services. Does that mean that you expect kind of the former leadership to remain intact or reassert itself? Those are legacy positions.

We're still staying there. We did add industrials. We upgraded energy materials as well back in December. But I will say, Mike, I'm actually happy to see some of the optimism come out of tech because the earnings momentum for tech is still positive. So to your point, we still are positive on tech long term. I don't know how quickly it reassert itself, but I think it's hard to be negative on tech.

I think in the interim, we still like having a position in both. And I think in the near term, the broading theme probably has a bit more to go. Yeah, there's no doubt that. I mean, it's remarkable that four months ago, the whole talk was AI bubble, and then that whole trade is kind of deflated to date. What about the general state of investor's sentiment?

I was talking a little bit about things looking a little bit, Hetty. Yeah, I would agree with that. We have one index that looks at newsletter writers, and that's showing the most equity allocation we've seen in some time. I think, so sentiment I would say on the margin is somewhat optimistic, but not euphoric. The one thing I pay attention to you, maybe a risk, is that 10-year Treasury is now pressing against 425. We start seeing that move.

That's not pestled into most people's forecast. So that's what I would be watching more than anything as a risk to this market right now. Yeah, absolutely. 423. Right now. Keith, thank you very much. As we hit him, to close, the S&P 500, showing small losses for the day as well as for the week, although the equal-weighted S&P is the bit of steam. That's going to do it, the closing valve today and this week. We're sending into overtime of Brian Sullivan.