Closing Bell - Closing Bell 12/26/25

Episode Date: December 26, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, thank you very much, Kelly. Welcome to closing bell from the opening bell to the closing bell. I'm Dominic Chewain for Scott Woffner. This make or break hour starts with the race for new records as the S&P 500 flirts with another closing high. We're in the red right now, but we'll see what happens. Here is your current scorecard with 60 minutes left to go in the trading session. Right now, the down industrials floating lower by just about one quarter of 1% to 48,645.

The S&P 500 down, we'll call it pretty much. flat, 666929, rather, on that trade in the NASDA composite, up very marginally so, to 23,000 626. Tech and materials are leading the way higher, while energy has been the laggard, so says the year-to-day tape as well. Also on the commodities front, gold and silver are hitting, again, new record highs, and Bitcoin is coming under pressure yet again today. We saw the price of just around 87,500. That's where we currently stand right now as well. This leads us to our talk of the tape, do you stick with what's been working heading into the new year, or is it time to readjust and reposition? So joining me now to discuss all of this is City's U.S.

Equity Strategist, Scott Kronert. Scott, we've been talking a lot about the kind of maybe lowish volume, kind of wading, holding pattern type situation we're seeing today. It's not all uncommon after the day after Christmas, but this does beg the question about whether or not the same storylines hold in 2026 as they did in 2025, at least for the first half, Scott, of 2026. Yeah, Dom, I think, you know, I think there's a good argument that it will. Our approach is that we think it's going to be a little bit different. We're using the word idiosyncratic to describe how we think the setup into next year goes. So we're looking for broadening into other sectors.

We recently upgraded health care alongside ongoing overweights and banks and tech. But we also, you know, a little bit more constructive on the industrial sector as well. And in addition, I'd say we've also gotten more positive on the outlook down cap in the U.S. small mid. So we think the setup for next year is going to be consistent of a number of these elite eight names and the AI influence stocks continuing to differentiate. But with a broadening dynamic out the spectrum that we think is going to be ultimately the path to double digit gains for next year. So double digit is what you're expecting right now. Your forecast currently sits, Scott, I believe, just around 7,700. So if you look at the S&P right now, 6930, that's a roughly 10, 11% gain from current levels. Just how much on that sliding scale will the contribution be from those magnificent 7, Elite 8 type names, as you point out, versus the rest of that 493? Well, it's a really good question. The way we're addressing this, I get to ask the question a lot. Do you think we'll see? see ongoing leadership out of that Mag 7 and lead 8. Our response is we have to get at least

participation. I don't think we need to get leadership, but if we can get an aggregate, courtesy of stock selection within it, that part of the market moving up, let's call it 40% of the index, up in the double digit range. And then that marries with this broadening playbook that we're talking about. You can still get there. But the bottom line is you need to think about this index in sort of a 60-40 lens, where you've got the 40% of the index you can attribute to the AI Elite 8 playbook. And then the other 60% that's going to be representative of this broadening thesis, including productivity gains coming out of increased usage from AI. So the bottom line here, Dom, is that we think it's going to require a combination

of forces to lift the index next year. We think it's pretty doable based on what we see unfolding from the fundamental perspective. You know, it's interesting as well because many of the value-oriented sectors that we talk about often, you know, thinking about names like in materials or in energy or in real estate, utilities. If you look at the weight of those sectors, mathematically speaking, they're roughly the same size as, say, the industrials or the healthcare sector, maybe a little bit bigger than industrial, a little less than healthcare. But that math still is formidable, right?

In terms of what they have to do, in terms of what they have to do actually to get that kind of performance driver. How much of that is going to be driven in your mind by, say, earnings growth and the macro factors around propelling profit growth versus, say, some of the multiple expansion that we might see as people decide to take on perhaps more risk? You're spot on with this. So look, we're differentiating with a fairly aggressive 320 estimate for index earnings next year. That puts us the high end of sell side strategists. off of the last two weeks price action and fundamental follow-through on some of the companies that have reported since, we're up to 313 now.

But what I would say on this is that there's no question, no question. If you step back and look at the playbook for this year, this is really interesting, the only part of the index, called the Elite 8, the Mag 7, that has earnings estimates for 25 higher than where we started the year is there. Everything else got stepped back around April's tariff talk and is still working its way back to that early 25 starting point. So you see where this goes from our perspective. You continue to get the growth expectations that we think are there for the AI-related,

and we suspect they'll deliver. But it's this broadening playbook into other more traditionally economic-sensitive sectors, and some that are not so. Well, for health care as an example, you combine that with financials. you throw industrials in. Now, we're underweight consumer, but we think there's still room for that to come back later into 2026. All told, what you get is this shifting fundamental paradigm that's really relying on sort of a Goldilocks economic circumstance and this onward, downward, trajectory in terms of where Fed funds are going. All right. So we're going to address that in just

moment, Scott, please, if I could just beg you to sit tight for a second, because one of those names that's been a headline driver so far this year and arguably the last maybe five to seven years has been NVIDIA and NVIDIA today making its biggest deal yet. McKenzie Sagalos joins us now with the details on that big move, a $20 billion move for NVIDIA.

Mac, what can you tell us? So, Dom, NVIDIA paying $20 billion to license GROC's technology and hire its top executives. That's nearly 3X, its most recent valuation from just three months ago. Now, GROC, it makes chips purpose-built for inference, running AI models faster

and cheaper than GPUs. Its founder, Jonathan Ross, helped create Google's TPU, which has become one of NVIDIA's most credible competitive threats, and now he is joining NVIDIA instead. Now, the trip startup wasn't looking to sell. InVIDIA approached them. The CEO, president, and senior leaders are all going over, though GROC cloud will keep operating independently.

It's another aqua hire, structure to avoid regulatory review, the same playbook, Nvidia used within Fabrica in September, and that meta, Google, and Microsoft have used to scoop up AI talent. Now, GROC reportedly slashed its 2025 revenue projections by 75% earlier this year. So, Invidia, it is paying a premium for a company struggling to hit its targets, but it has $60 billion in cash to deploy, and this deal locks up the mines who built both GROC's inference technology and Google's AI chip while keeping it away from Broadcom and AMD.

Dom? All right, McKenzie Sagalos, thank you very much, Mac, for that. all of that in mind, let's bring in PNC's Young You Ma and Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich, Scott Croner from City continues with us as well. I'm sure you guys listened into our conversation with

all of us together, but I want to start maybe Young You with you. The idea that the Nvidia trade has been one of the primary drivers, if not the primary driver of this last leg higher in the bull market for the S&P and the NASDAQ is something that maybe some

skeptics say doesn't really have the legs to continue in the way that it has over the past three to five years. What exactly do those mega cap tech stocks need to do to keep this thing going? Well, I do think the market is looking for proof. I think that the market is concerned probably about a pullback in the AI infrastructure spending. And I think that that's something that's probably overblown in terms of the concern about the ripple effects here. But I think what the market wants to see is just proof, ongoing proof that AI can continue to proliferate and produce gains in the economy for companies, for individuals, increasing productivity and increasing efficiency. And I think this is the year where

the market wants to see tangible proof. That's what is looking for. And I think we're on tap to deliver that. But that's what the market is, I think, on pause a little bit until we can deliver more of that. The show me kind of situation is developing for sure. So, Ryan, if you look at the charts right now, there has been maybe a bit of consolidation, a bit of flag. momentum, but it hasn't been very much. We're still right at or near record highs, even with the modest move lower in today's session. If that is the case, what exactly is leadership going to be in your mind for that 2026 trade? Will it continue to be those mag seven elite eight stocks? Well, Dom, thanks for having me back. Good afternoon, everybody, and happy holidays.

You think real quickly, just today is December 26th. All right, no day, Dom, historically, is more likely to be higher of 81% of times. We'll see. Maybe we can. get a little rally here. But you talk, I love the discussion you have right before it came on. Yes, Carcer Group, we've been quite bullish for a while now. We do think that broadening out theme into next year makes a lot of sense. We're more equal weight, large cap tech, but we think the leadership's going to be from those cyclical areas, right? Your industrials, your financials, I mean, materials, they're such a small part of the market, but boy, materials have been on fire. We think those areas is we do not have a recession next year. We have a Fed that's cutting. We have an

employment backdrop that isn't that great now. We know that, but probably gets better. All all those sick of areas. We think this bull market is alive and well, and they're probably going to lead us in 2026. Scott, if I could go back to you for a moment here, we addressed a little bit about some of those corporate profit, perhaps variables and maybe tailwinds, I guess, in some way that will propel the market higher. If we could look back at the macro picture as well, one of the things that will be a key focus for investors all of next year will be the Fed, not just because of leadership changes that are afoot, but also because of what the perceived interest rate path will be. How exactly does an equity strategist start to put those types of variables into your models?

And what exactly kind of a role do those things play and ultimately what you forecast to be a year-end target for the S&P 500? Yeah, well, I'd say the first thing we do is that we look at the rate backdrop. And obviously, we'd prefer to see 10-year yields coming down more so than Fed funds. What that does, it feeds into what we call our fair value model, which allows for earnings growth and other interest rate influences on how we think about the valuation backdrop for the S&P. And that's how we can get comfortable that we can look ahead to this year and expect that a current valuation paradigm, this 22, 23 times forward, 24, 25 times trailing can persist through next year. So we need that in terms of that Fed trajectory as a starting point. Obviously, we'd like to see inflation continue to come in, which I think it will.

We're pretty comfortable with that. But what we do think we're going to be facing here as we go into next year is this ongoing, let's call it push and pull between the productivity gains that we expect to be coming from the AI influence. At the same time, we've got this labor condition that's going to be a source of anxiety, you think, for many investors. So I think the face-off between these is going to be really important, but also behind the scenes, we expect that we at some level have an economic-sensitive tailwind to the earlier point that comes from a lot of the tax reform measures that were put in last summer. So we think we may end up seeing a little bit of an upside bias to currently expected GDP trends,

all of which does support this broadening out into the more cyclical or economic sensitive parts of the market. Young U, the macroeconomic backdrop, is it enough right now in its current state or its expected kind of maybe modest improvement state in the first half of next year at least to make this story a viable one for the markets that they can continue doing what they're doing? And the second part of my question there is just how much does the Fed need to cut rates, if at all, to make sure that that path stays intact? Yeah, it's a great question. I think the macro backdrop is not just enough, but more than enough. I think you're going to see strong productivity gains.

I think you're going to see strong profitability come through. That boosts to consumer spending, I think you're going to see after we get the tax rebates coming through. So I think there's a lot of underlying strength in the economy that is probably being underestimated now. And what's being overestimated is the extent to which the K-shaped economy could actually derail the markets or derail the overall economy. It may not be great from a social standpoint, but from a broad macro aggregate standpoint, it's not something it's likely to slow the economy

down much or derail the overall market trajectory. Now, in terms of the Fed, we do think it's important for the Fed to continue to have an easing bias for those long-term rates as well, to continue to stay range-bound at least, certainly not go higher, which would be challenging for the markets. But we think another couple of cuts would be sufficient to keep the market underpinned by a healthy risk-taking backdrop. We don't need three or four cuts. It'd be great if they came through, but at least a Fed that has an easing bias continues to be important for the market, for sure. Ryan, if there are three or four cuts in play, maybe that also signals a possible reason why we need three or four cuts, hypothetically, and that's because the economy is weakening. What is your base case scenario for the

U.S. economy and the markets in that context, are we expecting the recession that we never really got over the course of the last couple of years? Well, if we see, you know, let's say four cuts. I mean, I don't think we're going to see a recession. Maybe it does mean the economy slowing down. Fed fund futures are saying there be two cuts. The dot plot said one cut. We're kind of right around three cuts, okay? And let's just remember this, right? We can talk about Fed policy and what's it all mean. What I think really matters just recently, the Fed cut with the S&P 500 within 2% of an all-time high. So right at an all-time high. Dom, that happened 22 other times. One year later, the S&P 500 was higher 22 times. There's that old saying, don't fight the Fed.

I mean, we think this economy is probably going to surprise the upside. We think earnings are going to be solid. And it's not just a U.S. story. Last comment, this is a global economic recovery. I mean, listeners to this, though, SEPs of, what, 17, 18 percent, developed international of 30, emerging markets of 30. We think U.S. does better relative to everybody else next year. but this is a global bull market that's being led by many, many countries, and that's a real positive thing. And with that Dovish Fed cutting their all-time highs, it is what it is. We still think it's a reason to be overweight equities as we head into 2026. Ryan, can I follow up for a second? You have been, you've been at least followed widely on

Wall Street because of many of the market historical attributes, some of the seasonality factors, that sort of thing. This is, we're coming up in 2026 on a midterm election year. There's been a lot of talk about the way that markets perform in a midterm election year, both in the front half and the back half. Could you place some of that in some historical context for us here? Absolutely. So historically, midterm years aren't that great. Keep it that way.

From a peak to trough correction, it's about 17% from the peak to the trough, which is the largest out of the four-year presidential cycle for pullbacks. But then you think about it, Dom, when you don't have a recession, which again is I've laid out, and the other guests are just laid out, you're up 10% or more in the SP 400, seven out of ten times, right? You're very rarely down on the year. It can happen, yes. But I think it's important to remember that one more thing on this. I'm hearing a lot of people say the first half of the year might be kind of rough and the second half could be better. Well, we're about to be up eight months in a row on the S&P 500. Assume we're higher here in December. I know a couple more days

ago, but we're close. Six months later, okay, when that's happened, the SB has been higher eight out of ten times. Three months later, eight out of ten times. Momentum is a beautiful thing. I think it'd be something if the first half of the year is a little bit better than the second half. But all in all, we have a targeted between 12 and 15 percent total return on the S&P next year at the Carson Group. So we still think, you know, good times are still coming. Okay. Scott, to you, the places that we might want to stay a little bit more away from in 2026, relative to say the other parts of that broadening out trade. Yeah. So the starting point for us on the near term, and I'd say this is a Q1 call,

is that we're underway consumer via consumer discretion and staples. We think that the couple of things going on here. First, this labor consternation issues continue to be out there. But second, more importantly, we think we're going to look at a pretty solid holiday season when all is said and done as we go into the end of the year. But in terms of more immediate sales and revenue growth drivers, we don't see that happening short term as much in that part of the market. We think we also are still navigating what could be one more salvo of tariff impacts coming back at us.

So we put that part of the market to the side for now, focusing a bit more on this tech and then economic sensitive driver. Again, health care, a bit more of unique animalness. But the bottom line here is that as the urine folds, we think we're going to continue to see this rotational dynamic at work where you see an ongoing movement between leader and laggards as we go through the year. It's going to be in response to economic conditions for sure, but we think it's also going to be opportunistic as investors are trying to trade the backdrop that we're looking at right now. And young you, the last question goes to you. We've spoken a little bit

more in recent days and weeks about just how much the credit market has been responding and reacting, given the macroeconomic backdrop. How much do investors have to pay attention to things like corporate credit and spreads in 2026? Thanks? Spreads are an important predictor. I do think that's something to pay attention to. It should be on the radar. We don't think it's going to, again, derail the economy or something that writ large causes ripple effects that put the markets under greater strain. But the credit markets are very important to watch. I do think that spreads will stay reasonably rangebound, probably drift up a bit, but we don't expect a blow out of spreads. We think they'll remain relatively well-behaved, well-contained. Probably with some isolated incidents, we don't think we'll get through 2026 completely unscathed in terms of the credit markets, but we don't think it's going to be a year where we have systemic or broadening issues either. All right, a great conversation for sure. Thank you very much to Young You, Ryan, and Scott as well.

I wish you guys a happy holidays. Let's send it over now to Steve Kovac for a look at the biggest names moving into the closing bell. Hey there, Dom. Yeah, Freeport McMoran. Their shares are up over 1% as gold and other metals continue to scale to those record. levels. Gold hit that fresh intraday all-time high today after closing lower on Christmas Eve. Freeport, which generates a significant portion of its sales from gold, is up nearly 40 percent year-to-date. Shares of major airlines are sinking lower ahead of a major winter

storm approaching in New York City, New Jersey, and Long Island. Airlines canceled more than 1,200 U.S. flights on Friday already. According to the National Weather Service, snowfall totals could potentially reach nine inches. And Nike shares are up about a percent or so today. That's building on Wednesday's 4 percent gain after a regulatory disclosure showed that Apple CEO Tim Cook, who's also a board member there, bought nearly $3 million worth of shares. That stock was Wednesday's top performer in the S&P. Tom, back in review. All right, Steve. Steve Kovac, thank you very much for those movers here as we approach the closing bell. Now, we're just getting started here. Up next, betting on a bank breakout in 2026.

One top analyst gives his best ideas for this month's best performing sector. We're live from the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell right here on CNBC. We'll see you after this break. Welcome back to the closing bell. The financial sector far and away, the best performing sector so far this month. So will they continue that shine into the new year? Let's ask an expert.

That's Chris McGrady, head of U.S. Bank Research over at KBW. Chris, we spoke a little bit about the broadening outtrade with our panel just this past few moments or so. I wonder the financials are a big part of that story. Is there a macro backdrop that makes sure that the banks are in a healthy place in 2026? Well, thanks for having me back, Dom. Happy holidays. Healthy capital markets are really an underpinning of what's driven a lot of the strength in 2025. Your prior guest talked about credit spreads being tight.

We think credit spreads are something to watch for 2026. But as you think about the dynamic and the setup for the banks, right, we're in a period of strong, solidly double-digit earnings growth. And we think that continues. If that continues, what exactly is the driver? I mean, there's a lot of them, but what are the primary drivers of why that bank trade continues to be healthy from a fundamental standpoint. Right. If you separate the performance of the banks, right, the largest banks are up 40% on average

year to date. The smaller banks are up about 15. So there's a 20 to 25% spread between the winners and the underperformers this year. For 2025, it's been about capital markets, M&A, trading, investment banking. Those numbers have been absolutely incredible, volumes up 40%. If you think about 2026, for this trade to broaden, You need to see the yield curve remains steep, and it is. You need to see loan growth return, and you're seeing signs of it.

And you need to see earnings supported by benign credit conditions, which, for the most part, have been a real common denominator in 2025. So those benign credit conditions are due in some part, maybe a large part, to what's happening with macro policy at the Fed. How important is the Federal Reserve backdrop to the health of these banks? Do interest rates need to be in a certain area or range in order for that bank story? to continue on its way higher right we're uh we're aligned with with the fed we think there probably be one cut in 2026 whether there's one or two i don't think it's going to change the earnings

dramatically but you do need to see the yield curve stay steep and that's what's happened over the course of 2025 we've ended the longest period of inversion and what you're seeing now is the repricing of the balance sheet right so regardless if the fed goes once or twice there's a backbook dynamic that's really going to support net interest income And so you get that with lower funding costs, and that's a good recipe for revenue growth. All right. If that's the case, then what types of financial institutions in your coverage universe fare the best? Are we talking about some of the small, medium-sized regional-type banks, the traditional lenders? Are we talking about massive money center banks that also have capital markets

operations tied to them? Are we talking straight investment banks? What exactly are the top picks for 2026? For sure. For all of 25 and into 26, we think the bigger banks are the place to be. We've seen the broadening out of the capital markets. They've got scale across their business, whether it's deposits, capital markets, technology spend. The returns are higher and more stable. And we think just because the stocks have worked, we think they can continue to work. But we do see broadening out to the traditional banks. Two banks I'd give you here, Dom, Key Corp and Citizens Financial. Both of these banks are taking the ROE from low double digit to mid to upper teens. And these stocks traded 10 times earnings. What we like about Key and

citizens, right, is the backbook repricing, regardless if the Fed goes zero or one, two times. The revenue outlook is big. So we think those are two really interesting stocks. And the large caps, we still think city is one of the top picks. Yes, it's had a huge move this year, but it's only 1.2 times tangible book. They're levered to capital markets. They've got a really important capital investor day coming up in May. And we think city can continue to work. All right. And one final question before we let you go here. If you take a look at the way that those banks have performed. You mentioned before the kind of performance gap between those small and medium-sized banks versus the mega center, money center type banks. How much can we expect

that gap to close in 2026? Yeah, it's the number one question we've gotten all year from investors is why would we pay 15 times earnings when we can pay 10 for something smaller and cheaper? We think there's a sprinkle and you can own both. The banks at 14, 15 times earnings, they're growing earnings at 15 times. So we think that'll continue to work. But if you do want to see this rotation trade unfold in the banks, then there are a lot of banks trading at nine, ten, eleven times, and the ROEs are mid to upper teams. So we can get value across the spectrum. All right. Chris McGrady at KBW. Thank you very much. Happy holidays, sir. Thanks, Tom. All right. Still ahead on the show, feeling the hangover. The alcohol trade leaving many

investors queasy a little bit this year, but will 2026 bring better spirits? We'll discuss. Closing bells back after this. we're back on closing bell now we're going to call this maybe a congressional exodus a record number of lawmakers are heading for the doors emily wilkins is live in our washington bureau with more on the exodus from congress why emily hey don well yeah look a record number of members they have announced they will not be running for re-election and more retirements are expected in january now a tally from ballot people finds 53 lawmakers, 44 members of the House, nine senators have already announced

that they're not going to be running for their current seats. And this is a record for this time in the election cycle. And if you look at historical precedents, we should only expect to see more members choosing to exit come January. Rihanna Ryan, who tracks retirements for ballotpedia, says the reason for members departing varies,

but part of it is the dysfunction that we've seen this year on Capitol Hill. We definitely have members who come out and say, You know, I'm looking forward to sort of passing the torch on to the next generation or we have seen some members in their announcements, reference, you know, a dissatisfaction with how Congress is operating right now. Among the departing lawmakers include Senator Cynthia Lummus, who has been central to getting crypto legislation done in the Senate. Also departing are several members known for working across the aisle, including Republican Don Bacon, Democrat Jared Golden, and Republican Tom Tillis in the Senate. not all 53 are leaving Congress entirely. At least 14 House members are giving up their seats

and hope that they will be re-elected as members of the Senate and others are running for governor and other state official positions. Dom? All right, Emily Wilkins there with the latest on Capitol Hill and the exodus from Congress.

Thank you very much for that. Coming up next on this show, we are charting the market into year end. One top technician joins us with the key levels that he's watching. Keep it right here. Closing bell will be back after this commercial break. All right, welcome back to closing bell.

We are still on record close watch for the S&P 500. That magic number, by the way, is 6932. We are currently at 6931. So any close above that level I just mentioned is a new all-time high on that closing basis. And our next guest sees even more upside in the charts heading into the new year. Joining me now is macro risk advisors John Kolovis. John, thank you very much for joining us here this morning or this afternoon. I'm sorry. I've been here for the closing bell and the opening bell as well. Let's talk a little bit about what the charts are telling you about whether or not we could see this continued momentum in the coming weeks and months.

Hey, Dom, good to see you, and I feel you're paying this time of year. It's tough to kind of know which way we're going. You know, for next year, I would even say going for the next couple weeks or so, I think the market can continue to push up higher. We have good seasonality. I think the SB can get itself up to perhaps 7,200 or so. And then at that point, I believe the market's going to have a bit of a rough go next year. I do think there's a strong, if not above-average odds that we see at least a major correction, something around 15%, if not a proper bear market at some point next year. How exactly do you then reconcile those expectations with this idea that we've seen a shallowing of the depths of any kind of a pullback throughout the course of

the last year or even two? There was a time when maybe a 10 or 15% pullback was something that you could almost bank on. These days, though, every single dip seems to be bought, not just by institutions, but not by retail investors and traders as well. How exactly then do the charts tell you that you could see a deeper pullback, even though we haven't really seen one since, say, the April tariff tantrum lows? Fair point, and it's a great point. I mean, the trends are still very, very strong here on the equity marks. S&P, higher highs, higher lows, still by you 50-day moving average. You're absolutely right. Pullbacks have been pretty benign outside of the tariff tantrum, like you said. But what we're going into next year, we have a lot of uncertainty when it comes

to the midterm election. And a big part of technical analysis is we study different types of market cycles. And next year being year two of the presidential cycle, that year tends to typically come with it below average returns. On average, around three or four percent gain for the second year of a presidential term. But also, bear markets tend to occur, or at least tend to bottom in the second year of the presidential cycle. So what does that ultimately mean? that means we have to peak at some point. So the presidential cycle tells us we should prepare for a lot of volatility. And number two, I would say, is that the AI trade has, you know, it's still, I can I say, still correcting from the October highs. And I do believe that we're

no longer in this, all boats are going to rise with the tide sort of thing when it comes to the technology sector. So I think technology is going to have a bit of a headwind next year. So the math doesn't necessarily work for like significant gains to the upside unless you're to get technology to ride with it. So you have your midterm, you have some AI headwinds, and then also, of course, uncertainty when it comes to the Fed chair. I don't think that's going to get resolved before April or May. And in turn, interest rates are likely to remain sideways, if not tilted higher. So in the beginning of the year, I think the tape is going to be bracing for those sort of volatility moves. So elections and the policy uncertainty that we have, I think is going to be

quite a bit of a headwind from the markets to work through. John, can we tilt your focus a little bit away from that equities trade into one part of the market that is seeing very strong record highs throughout the course of the year, and that's in the precious metals, specifically gold and silver, which again have hit records again today. So what is the outlook for those commodities, especially for gold and silver? So commodities in general, as you say, are in a generational bull market, okay? They bottomed in 2020, and they have years to go to the upside. So once, but now we take a step back and we see what's going on with these precious metals. Yeah, I've been telling clients, buy anything that's shiny this year and even going to next year.

But if you want to know the exact levels that I'll be looking for when it comes to silver in particular, I could see silver trading up to around the 80 to 85 area before the next meaningful pullback. And when it comes to gold, I've been I've been pending in at least 5,000, but with the potential for an extension up to the 7,000 area. So I think they're still strong charts. Sure, are they going to be overbought? and they're going to pull back? Yeah, absolutely. But for now, I think these are really, really strong trends. And I just want to say one thing, though, like this is how commodities

tend to behave. They tend to go parabolic. They tend to surprise folks to the upside. That's just typical commodity behavior. I think at some point next year, they're going to see a major peak. But for now, yeah, you ask for that silver, 80 to 85 and for gold, yeah, just 5,000 with the potential to extend up to 7,000. All right, John Kolovis. Thank you very much. We appreciate it. Have a nice weekend, sir. Thank you. You too. All right. Coming up next on the show, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into that closing bell. Steve Kovac is standing by with those names, Steve. Hey there, Dom. You have one in battled retailer is up while some cruise names. They're down. We'll tell you what's behind the

action when closing bell returns after this. All right, we are two, one now just about 13 minutes away from the closing bell. Let's get back to Steve Kovac for a look at the key stocks to watch as we head towards that close, Steve. Yeah, Dom, Target shares, they're up about 2% after the financial times reported earlier that hedge fund Tom's capital investment management made a big investment in the retailer, the activist pressure, comes as target is down more than 27% on the year. And cruise stocks, they're dropping lower today with Royal Caribbean, the biggest decliner, dipping close to 3% followed by Norwegian and Carnival.

There was not an obvious cause for those declines, but the moves follow a volatile year across the cruise industry amid concerns about oversupply in the Caribbean market. And Crowdstike shares, they're gaining less than 1% after a new note from Dan Ives. Guess what? He's bullish. And he called the company a leading play in the Cybermeets AI theme for 2026. In particular, he said CrowdStrike continues to develop strong momentum with its Falcon platform. That stuck up 40% year-to-date, Dom. All right, Steve Kovac with the movers as we head into this closing bell on a Friday. Thank you very much for that.

Coming up next, the one company sending a rare cautionary signal for crypto bulls. The details on that company when we take you inside the market zone. That's coming up next. All right, that music, those graphics, you know where we are. We are in the closing bell market zone. Matt Powers of the Powers Advisory Group, here to break down those crucial moments of the trading day as we head towards the close. We've also got Mackenzie Segalos and how strategy is sending a rare cautionary signal for the crypto bulls out there. Brandon Gomez with some sobering stats, if you will, on the booze trade this year.

And Steve Kovac is looking at the big tech takeaways from this Christmas season. We're going to start with McKenzie Segalos. Mack, how strategy is going on the defensive. That's your story. Dom, Bitcoin's down nearly 20% over the past three months with the structural buyers that were supposed to put a floor under it stepping back. Spot ETF flows have been net negative for five straight days and strategy. The biggest corporate holder just liquidated three quarters of a billion dollars in shares not to buy Bitcoin, but to build a cash reserve for dividends and debt payments. That stock, it's down nearly 50% this year and now trades at a discount to the Bitcoin on its books.

The next catalyst is when MSCI decides in January whether to boot strategy from its indexes. J.P. Morgan estimates that could trigger nearly $9 billion in outflows if other providers follow. So heading into the new year, we're looking at thinner liquidity, reliable buyers on the sidelines, and smaller traders driving the action, which means sharper swings in both directions, Dom. All right, Mac, with the update that on strategy and the Bitcoin trade, thank you very much for that. Brandon Gomez, investors in the alcohol stocks are feeling a little queasy, maybe a little hangover this year. Tell us more, please. Yeah, pour one out.

Another brutal year, strip out in Anheuser-Busch for a moment and focus on consolation brands, Diageo, Brown-Fortman, Moulson, Cores, and Boston beer. And the glass, unfortunately, is all foam. Those booze makers, long staples of consumer portfolios have lost a combined $48 billion in market value in 2025. Consolation on pace for its worst year since 1987, while Diageo and Brown-Forman. are heading for their fourth and fifth straight annual losses, respectively. So what's going on, Don? We've talked about it all year long, tariff-driven price pressure, young drinkers, GLP-1 users cutting back, plus alternative products are flooding the market.

Now, there is one standout analysts tell me could be a blueprint for booze in 2026. Bud shares bucking the trend up almost 30 percent successfully diversifying by leaning into non-alcoholic growth and selters. The company offsetting U.S. weakness with international cutting costs to improve margin. The word for 2026, Dom, adaptability, matters more to investors right now than historical brand power that we've seen. And Mikolo Bultra, the best performing beer in America now, right? Yep, yeah, and then Mikulub, the non-alcoholic version as well. All right, there we go. Brandon Gomez, thank you very much for the booze trade there.

Now let's send it over to Steve Kovac, which tech company actually won Christmas this year. Yeah, Dom, and I want to focus on the AI names most of all. So I look at the App Store rankings every Christmas Day to see which tech company won Christmas, based on the velocity of people downloading all those apps. Let's stick with the investable ones people are going to be looking at next year. That's going to be meta AI, which came in at number two, chat, GBT, which came in number three, and Alexa and Gemini coming in at six and seven. Now, what does this tell us?

On Meta's case, it tells us there's a lot of energy behind those AI glasses, those Rayban-branded glasses they've been selling for a few years there. You need that app in order to use it with your phone. And then, of course, a lot of people got new iPhones yesterday. So what's the first thing they do? they need to pick a chat bot that they want to use. And it turns out chat GPT and Gemini were the two top ones. In fact, Anthropic and XAIs GROC,

they did not even rank in the top 25 when I was looking through this yesterday. So that kind of tells you where the consumer mindset is going into AI in the new year, Dom. All right, Steve Kovac, with the latest there on who won Christmas and the tech side of things. Thank you very much for that. Now let's bring in Matt Powers of Powers Advisory Group for little commentary. as we head towards the close, Matt, it's been a pretty darn good year for the S&P 500. The stock market overall, 401Ks are doing pretty well for many investors out there who have those. What exactly are your thoughts looking back on 2025 and can we continue that in 2026?

Yeah, Dom, thanks for having me. Yeah, you know, as we close the year and look ahead of 20206, you know, I think the right way to frame this is not whether it was a good year. I think, you know, clearly it was, but whether the market can repeat it. And what actually, has to change under the surface for that to happen, if anything. So coming into 25, I mean, 25 expectations were modest. Valuations were already elevated. We had rates that were restrictive, tariffs were back in the headlines, new regime, all these things. And the S&P should touch maybe 20% here by the end of the year, largely because earnings held up better than most expected. And, you know, by the third quarter, the S&P earnings were up 13% year over year. And I think what's more important

about that is that growth became more widespread in Q4. It's one of the biggest lessons from from this year is that macro concerns didn't stop the market. Earnings did the work. Now, if those macro concerns didn't stop the market, are you doing anything different with your client portfolios for the new year? Yeah, so, you know, as we enter the new year, you know, there's issues with concentration,

we're looking at the AI trade, and you know, part of that's why we like the traditional value area. We did earlier this year, we're probably early there, but you know, on the sector side, two of the ugliest areas year to do, date have been real estate and staples. And I'm not bringing them up necessarily to be contrarian here, but it's just being more realistic maybe about how you build a portfolio

when you think returns are going to moderate. And there's a couple names in particular. We like there. Prologists, you know, we're not looking for two X or three X in one year. We like it because it's a well-run, high-quality business that kind of fits into that value with an AI spin. They're heavily leaning into data centers. And it's the biggest, it's the biggest in the world. Biggest industrial rate in the world. It's $100 billion market cap. And, you know, Amazon, FedEx, UPS are all tenants, and they're an excellent dividend grower. And then, you know, on the staple side, we like Pepsi, kind of for the same reason. I mean, it's packaged products. They're totally out of favor. So it's not exciting, not looking for a home run, but that's kind of the point. I mean, the valuation's just above its all-time low and the stock's beaten down over the past year. You're getting a close to 4% yield. And, you know, we're looking at it more as a 12 to 18-month type play. Okay, so PepsiCo on the staple side, prologes on the real estate side of things. You're also a person who runs, at least focuses on the dividend side of the story for many investors out there. They like the income aspect.

What is the outlook for those dividend paying type stocks that you track closely for the dividend paying sectors in light of what maybe your expectations are for a Fed rate cycle next year that may involve at least one or maybe more cuts? Yeah, I mean, we love dividend growers. just high yield companies, typically dividend growers. And, you know, the Fed's no longer necessarily a headwind, I think, the way it was in 2003 and 24. And, you know, even a modest, modest rate relief, we just saw it, you know, it releases some pressure on equity. So especially outside Mega Cap Tech, and we've seen a few cuts and cuts work with a lag, but directionally, you know, we feel like it's a tailwind, especially in that area. And a lot of those names have lagged certainly this year

and over the past few years. So, you know, now might be a decent time to take a second look there. But there are plenty of areas, plenty of sectors, names, dividend growers within those sectors that we like. And just really quickly, anyone in favorite that you like in terms of a dividend grower? Dividend grower, I mean, across the board, it's, you like health care, we like financials. You can look at companies like Bristol Myers or a Merck in the health care side. And financials, you know, you look at a visa, it's a lower yielder, but it's, you know, excellent, well-run company, especially we just ended the holiday season. All right, Matt Powers at Powers Advisory Group. much for that. You can hear the cheers right behind me right now. That means we are just seconds

away from the closing bell. It looks like we are going to finish just about dead flat for the day. The Dow, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ all down, but very, very marginally. So we're talking about hundreds of a percent at this point. That does it now for the closing bell. Have a great holiday season and a great weekend. Let's send it over to overtime with Morgan Brennan.