Closing Bell - Closing Bell 4/15/26

Episode Date: April 15, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make-or break hour begins with stocks at record highs. Take a look at the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. The S&P trading above 7,000. Had to get above 7,000 to and change. And it did that within the last hour or so. Don't forget the NASDAQ. Look at it. Up better than one in a third percent. It's the biggest winner today. It's above a closing high as well. We'll Keep an eye on all of the numbers as we've progressed through this final hour. Microsoft is up sharply. Been a very big week for that name and a much needed one, as you know. Look at that. 5% green? Haven't seen that in a minute, have we? Nvidia's been up for 10 straight days. Apple is nicely higher as well. Meta and Broadcom in a partnership. Both stocks are moving on that news today. And nicely so, Tesla surging on an AI chip breakthrough and an analyst upgrade today. That stock up better than 7%. All of it takes us to our talk.

of the tape, this running stocks and whether they've got enough steam now to keep going. Let's ask our headliner today. Tom Lee, he's Fund Stratt's head of research, chief investment officer, also a CNBC contributor, and it's good to have you back. Welcome. Great to see you, Scott. Told us that you thought the bottom was in and then new highs were in reach. Here we are. Now what? I know this is going to sound counter to what the viewers might think, But I think the stock market is in a better position today than earlier this year when it made its all-time high.

Because, one, we're now seeing that the U.S. stock market can handle a surge in oil while it hurts other countries. We've seen earnings go up, so we now feel comfortable that the war is actually stimulating the economy. And the third is, I know I've talked before about inflation shocks, but we've been looking back at the history of oil spikes. And the impact on core is less than we thought. So I think there may be less of an inflation shock coming. So I think stocks can go back to that 7,300, which is our base case for this year in our three-phase market, before we might see a larger drawdown. Well, I hear you essentially saying that the U.S., in some respects as a result of this war, is the best house in a now more uncertain neighborhood. That's right.

This is the seventh black swan now thrown on investors since 2020. And now we've seen that the U.S. can handle a Middle East catastrophe, you know, one where the straight is closed and oil's not available. The U.S. economy is still operating while other countries are talking about shutdowns and factories closing. You don't feel in any way or you're not concerned that you may be complacent to the risks that are still out there because of the war? There are tail risks. I think that the size of the tail has shrunk, tail meaning a downside risk. And I do think that there's a lot of folks who are credibly pointing out that the shock could still hit the shore in the U.S. because of things like helium and other commodities.

So we are watching that, Scott. But I'd also say that we could have a positive tail risk, which is if we can find a lasting C-spire, then whatever shock hits the shores is so short in effect that it won't hurt our base case. You know, the NASDAQ is trying for its 11th straight positive day. It'll be the longest streak since November of 2021. There are those who believe, like J.P. Morgan does, that if the next leg of the rally is going to be strong, tech is going to have to lead. Do you agree with that call? Yeah, we do.

I think that it's still useful for people to look at what has outperformed since the war. started. And, you know, number one has been Ethereum and Bitcoin, which are crypto, but they're highly correlated to tech. Of course, there's energy stocks, but then it's led by tech, the Mag 7, and even the software. So I think that JP Morgan's correct. I think tech is growth when people are worried about growth. And of course, it's also been the most under-owned group, because that's the group people were selling. Well, part of the call is that you're going to get the best earnings growth from tech. There are more notes about that today. While at the same time, valuations have fallen. So these stocks in some people's eyes aren't as pricey as they used to be

and look even more attractive because earnings growth estimates are solid, if not increasing. I mean, that sounds right, Scott. These companies have true moats. They've grown earnings consistently faster than the S&P. I think they're going to be one of the winners around AI. And you're right. To buy them at a market multiple means that five years from now, I think people, are going to be surprised that they could buy him so cheaply. I mean, it's getting harder because the stocks have rallied back so hard. Like you see meta and Broadcom, and I'll come back to in a minute, Tom. They have a partnership today, and both of those stocks are performing well.

Christina Parts and Nebulos who follows it, of course, joins us now with more details. What do we know? Yeah, they just actually extended their partnership. And the key here is scale. So this starts around a gigawatt of deployment and is expected to grow much larger over time. Just at a basic level, Broadcom is essentially helping Meta build its own AI chips as well as networking, so meta doesn't have to rely as much on, let's say, NVIDIA. This isn't new, but the extension tells you meta is doubling down its in-house chip strategy.

MTIA, for example, is very much alive. And this is part of a bigger trend, too. Broadcom now has multiple deals with big tech from OpenAI, Anthropic, all trying to build more of their own AI infrastructure. For NVIDIA, this is where competition starts to show up, especially in inference where models are run and, costs really matter most. Invita, no doubt, still leads on training and high-end performance, but custom chips like these are starting to carve out a piece of the pie.

Scott. All right. Appreciate that. Thank you. Come back to in a little bit. Christina, thanks. Tom, the IGV is up 10% this week. Are you a buyer of software here? Are you a believer in this turnaround? We are, Scott. Part of it is that I think, as we've seen when we've seen the other Black Swans at the S&P, U.S.S. companies are dynamically, and they're going to adjust to the threat. And for software companies, that means they have to become AI forward. IGV, I think, fell so sharply, partly because it was a convenient way for funds and investors to express a negative view on SAS. So I think buying IGV today is a contrarian buy, but you're

buying it because I think people shorted this without really distinguishing the winners and losers. move as well in small caps needs to be discussed because you've been such a believer in that. You maybe got a little over your skis and your optimism within the last couple of years, but nonetheless, the Russell 2000 year to date's up 9%, Tom, and it's high on your list of things you want people to buy. That's right, Scott. I think, I know small caps people may scratch your heads because it is dependent on monetary policy easing, but we should also keep mind that small caps are really benefiting from recovery in the

US PMI's, right? The ISM manufacturing is holding about 50, even with this war shock. And they're also benefiting from this wartime GDP simulation. So I think you've got an earning story for small caps at a time, as you said, they've been underowned and their valuations on a relative basis have gotten, have made them very cheap. Tom, we'll talk to you again soon. Appreciate the time on this record-setting day yet again for the That's Tom Lee. More bank earnings today. That group wrapping up its prints. Leslie Picker here with more. What do we know here? Hey, Scott, yeah, solid beats from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America to round out that first quarter of at least the big bank earnings.

The Wall Street side of these businesses, really the key driver of the upside in the quarter. Equities, sales and trading increasing 30% at B of A and 25% at Morgan Stanley, which also saw a record in its fixed income side. to commodities trading. Capital markets broadly helped Morgan Stanley notch record net revenue in the first quarter. And amid the macro and geopolitical uncertainty, BFA opted to lift its guidance for net interest income, the profitability metric for loanmaking. Also worth pointing out, Scott, the returns on tangible common equity for these two firms, Morgan Stanley disclosed a 27.1% ROTCE that's best among its peers and a 400 basis point improvement from last year. B of A's was 16%, which was a 200 basis point improvement, Scott.

Leslie, Leslie Picker, getting some news right now on Live Nation. And our Julia Borsden has that for us. Hi, Julia. Hi, Scott. Well, New York federal jury has just found that Live Nation entertainment illegally monopolized ticketing markets. The jury reaching this verdict after a six-week trial.

We've just reached out to Live Nation, no word back yet. But this is seen as a blow to the nation's largest concert company. Now, a judge will determine penalties that the live events, ticketing, and promotion company could face. Now, that could include breaking up the company, monetary damages, or other remedies. This is going to be an important one to watch for such a large company in this live event space. Back over to you. No doubt. You'll bring us any more details you get.

I know that. Julia, thank you, Julia Borsden. Let's bring in our panel now. Best goes, Brian Levitt, BNY, Wells, Alicia Levine. It's good to have you both with us. Brian, you get the first shot at this record-setting market. You're not surprised, I would assume, based on the conversations we've had in the last weeks? I'm not surprised.

And, you know, maybe the timing of it a little bit. A little fast? Yeah, a little fast. I suspected we might have needed a little bit more clarity with regards to a negotiated deal between the U.S. and Iran. But you and I were sitting in Miami a handful of weeks ago talking about it. I said, you know, most of these conflicts a year later, the market does well so long as you're coming into it with good fundamental strength. It wasn't 1973 with 7% inflation. It wasn't 2022 with 7% inflation.

It was an environment where leading indicators across the globe were resilient and inflation expectations were contained in the U.S. So I'm not surprised. Admittedly, it happened a little bit earlier than I expected. I mean, Lisa, I guess part of the moral of this story is, as an investor, if you wait for clarity in this market, you run the risk of getting run over by a bull. Always.

I mean, the market always bottoms before the, the headlines are done. And that's something that I think investors learned last year with tariffs where people were saying, well, it's still 20% tariffs. Well, it's still 16% tariffs. Right. What if this and what if that? And the market took off because the market is pricing in the left tail risk. And when you pull in that left tail risk, it's whatever's going to be, it's not going to be as bad as it was the first day. And so you price in the worst case scenario almost immediately and then you walk it back. And that's what we see. That doesn't mean there aren't risk. It just means that the headlines themselves are.

are unlikely to derail a market, which today earnings estimates are at 16% for 2026, 3% higher than they were three months ago at multiples that are lower. So the setup is pretty beautiful. And as you've been talking about with Tom and Brian, you know, the tech sector is now trading at market multiples the first time in about six years. So massive opportunity here. Do you believe what one of the notes suggested today? So we're here, right?

We hit this milestone, and for what's next, it's going to be tech that has to lead you there? It's going to be what's going to grow and what's still going to be a slower growth environment globally. So if you remember coming into the year, we were all bulled up on international markets. We were bulled up across market capitalization value. That was all about global expansion. That was all about lower rates in the U.S. So that's changed now. I think ultimately we'll get there.

What we're grappling with right now, $4 gasoline challenges in Asia, you're going to have a slower global growth environment. And that type of an environment, yeah, things like technology outperform. Is that, do you agree with that? That's kind of what Tom Lee was asserting as well. Best, best house in a now much more uncertain neighborhood across oceans. And here we have what we think is a little more clarity on earnings than the economy. And much worse bond sell-offs in the developed world internationally as well. That's something we haven't talked about. But Bonnials have spiked in global markets, which is going to depress some of the valuations there. One thing I keep in mind, and I don't want to just throw away international just yet,

is that the dollar is weakened and is now weaker today than it was on March 1st when the war started. So we barely had a flight to safety in the U.S. dollar. It was about a 3% increase. We've taken it all back in the last week or so, and to the extent that the dollar remains a little bit weaker with the Fed unlikely to cut other central banks hiking. not just not cutting, but hiking, then you can see a situation where just the dollar alone can support markets. I think that's a really interesting point, and we're in agreement on that. So when I'm saying in the near-term tech outperforms at a slower growth world,

if you're thinking about it over a multi-year period, you've now had an additional sell-off in non-U.S. markets or lower valuations. You've now had, at least you had some short-term weakness in the currencies. If we start to see some improvement in the conflict, then I think we can get right back on that track with international markets. What about Alicia, this move that we were discussing with Tom and small caps? I thought I saw you like, you know, want to get in on that conversation right then and there. The most fascinating thing about the V recovery in the last 10 days is that beta, beta is rallying harder. So that's tech, that's small cap.

You barely have any spread left in emerging market debt. all the things that you think would be most sensitive to higher inflation expectations and possible Fed hikes are actually rallying. And so either the market's telling you that it's going to be fine or there's a real mispricing here. It's one or the other. I tend to think that the market's telling you it's going to be fine. Some suggest that we're on the cusp or in the throes of already this everything rally.

But at some point it's going to be short-lived. And that's when technology is going to have to reassume. and assert itself into carrying the load of this market. Does that make sense or no? Yeah, although I would, I think that ultimately what's going to have to happen for the everything market to continue to move is that you will need to see some type of negotiated deal, some pick up again in the global economy and a Federal Reserve that can lower interest rates. Expectations will get there. So I may have it a little bit different there where in a slowdown right now globally, technology can drive the market.

Whereas when we get to a better place on a geopolitical stance, when we can get back to the Fed cutting interest rates, weaker dollar, that's when, you know, the everything bull market persists. What would you stay away from, Alicia, in this market right now? So if you think that the U.S. is going to grow through this and that tech is going to lead, and I do think tech is going to lead, and when we saw the multiples hit 20 times forward earnings, that was it. So we were all in. I'd say the staples here, you know, Staples were very expensive in January and February and did not maintain their risk off status during March. And I think that tells you that that trade is probably behind us. We still like industrials.

We like large-cap banks and we like tech here. No discretionary? I mean, if we think that we've seen the peak or close to it in oil and in gas prices, Now, that sector today is skewed, obviously, by Tesla, which is up 7% of what we showed you because it's the second best after technology. Do you have enough questions about the durability of the consumer that you don't want to go there? So not in the aggregate. I think this is a place where you have to pick and choose which part of the income scale you're selling into.

But I think overall discretionary should do well. Again, we had staples over discretionary for six months coming into this, And I think you're just getting the reversion here. So that should work as well. Overall in the aggregate. All right. We'll leave it there. We'll talk to both you again soon.

Alicia, thanks, Brian. Thanks to you as well. We'll see you both back here post-9 to Christina Parts of Nevelos. Now for a look at the biggest names. Moving into the close. What do you see? I got to talk about this story. Shares of Allberg skyrocketing.

Over 700% as the company made the surprising decision to pivot from shoes that maybe Scott owns to AI. Allbirds said last month that it would sell its assets for $39 million. The new AI-focused company will be called new bird AI. Note the tiny market cap. Allbird was valued at $21 million at yesterday's clothes. I wonder which Pear Scott has. American Eagle shares gaining roughly 7%. 7.5% as the retailer launched its second campaign with actress Sidney Sweeney. Her first ad with the brand in July faced intense social media criticism, but of course also boosted the stock over 70% since the launch. Stock pacing for its best days since December, of course have her back.

And last but not only, shares of DoorDash and Instacart parent Maple Bear, are both rising. Barclays out with a note calling DoorDash as the clear leader of autonomous food delivery technology shares of Maple Bear are gaining in sympathy up almost 4%. Scott? None. None. None. Oh, yeah, you're like a Nike Dunks dude, right? See you later. Okay. We'll see you later. All right. That's Christina Parksnevlos. We're just getting started here. Coming up next, it's Trump versus Powell. Again, the details behind the president's latest attack on the Fed chair, plus the Treasury Secretary

backtracking what he's saying now about interest rate cuts after the break. Welcome back, President Trump, doubling down today on his threats to fire Fed Chair Powell, saying in an interview that he might do it if Mr. Powell doesn't leave at the end of his term. Mr. Powell does have the right to remain a Fed governor after May and has said publicly he won't leave if the probe into him is still ongoing. For more, let's welcome in our senior economics reporter Steve Leasman. It's good to have you, good to discuss. What do you make of this latest double down, if you want to call it that?

Well, I mean, I think he ignores it like he has in the past, this threat to fire the Fed chair, if he remains on the board. He was asked this morning what the president was asked, what he would do if Powell stays in the president, what the president said, quote, then I'll have to fire him, okay, if he's not leaving on time. I've held back firing him. I've wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial. The Federal Reserve Act allows the president to fire Fed official for cause. When Powell's term ends his chair in May, he'll have two years left on his term as

governor. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump fired amid unproven allegations of mortgage fraud separately. Two officers from U.S. Attorney Janine Piro's office showed up at the Fed's headquarters construction site. That is the source of the criminal prote against Fed chairpower, we think, amid again, unproven, unsubstantiated allegations of fraud. The two deputies turned away. Outside counsel for the Fed reminded Piro in a letter that a judge had refused Piero's request for a subpoena, citing the lack of evidence. Piero has until Mayforth, Scott to appeal the judge's ruling. You know, I was thinking, and I want your opinion on this, I wonder in some respects, as you mentioned the Lisa Cook ruling, which we're waiting for,

which now is more relevant than ever, if that was in some sense the administration's way of testing the law, figuring that Powell may want to stay at the end of his term, and it the administration doesn't want him to stay. And maybe that's what that whole thing was about in the first place, testing the waters to see what they could or couldn't do. Scott, I'll just answer this broadly. Some people see calculated genius in the things that the president does, and others see random acts.

That he was fed this idea of Lisa Cook and mortgage fraud from the FHFA director, and the president acted impulsively and fired him and it's essentially blown up legally in his face. It's an expectation the Supreme Court will not allow this to go through. So I think both can actually be true. He was testing the waters. And depending upon that ruling, he may find himself in a more difficult place

than he otherwise would have been in order to fire the Fed chair. And I think what the Supreme Court has suggested in its questioning is that, and actually said, is the Fed is separate. The Fed is special, unlike some of the other places where they've allowed these fire, to go through, they stopped this one and didn't allow it to happen. So he's already found out perhaps what he wanted to know if he was calculating this. Maybe more importantly, too, is the doubling down, if you would, on the investigation itself, which I think you would agree, if anything, has only hardened the resolve of the Fed chair in and of itself that he's stated publicly, I'm not going

anywhere as long as the investigation is ongoing. And now the president says it's ongoing. Right. And it's important. underscore the reasons why Powell is staying, because if Powell were to leave amid these allegations, it would show that the president can force out a Fed member or a Fed chair based upon what essentially is pretextual allegations that are really built around the president's desire for lower interest rates. So Powell is staying as a matter of principle. I believe personally, he wants to get out of there and wants to be out of the limelight and enjoy time with his grandkids. But I think he's staying as a matter of principle for the institution itself.

to show that he can't be forced out based upon. Really, Scott, look, the judge found no evidence at all. He begged the Piro's office to say, look, what is the evidence you have? In fact, why don't we go into a private meeting, and you can tell me that in private what your evidence is? And there was none, and there is none, as far as we can tell. And essentially what happened yesterday is Janine Piro sent two anglers in fishing vests on a fishing expedition. For those who don't follow the Fed as closely, certainly as you and most others who are in this business, what happens if Chair Powell's term is up in May, the investigation is somehow still going,

Warsh can't be approved in the time frame to have him take the seat, what do we do? Okay, so I'll give you a little bit more background to that question, if you don't mind, so that people who really don't follow us understand. Kevin Warsh's nomination will not go through as far as we understand because Senator Tom Till is leaving in January has declined to allow the president's Fed nominations to go forward because of this criminal investigation against Powell. So let's be clear.

The president himself is creating this issue by essentially goading Piro into continuing this investigation for which there's no evidence as far as we can tell. and Piro may be doing performative justice in the sense that she's auditioning for the open AG spot. We don't know that, but it's entirely possible with this administration. What happens and what would happen and answers your question is the board of governors would vote for Fed Chair Powell to remain as Fed Chair, and the FOMC, the separate Federal Mark Committee, would do the same thing and vote for Powell to be Fed Chair. So he would remain in place while Tillis has this block of the advancement of power, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, a chair.

President Trump's nominations. That would be the greatest irony of all time, whether this actually allows. It already is the greatest irony. He wants to get rid of him, but he won't let him go. All right, Steve, thanks. Thanks. Steve Leesman. Up next, new reporting on the future of LiveGolf, the big money that's behind that tour. Interesting details when the closing bell returns. Welcome back. We're following a developing business story in the golf world today. The Financial Times reporting within the last couple of hours that the Saudis are on the verge of cutting support for live golf due in part to the war in Iran. Joined now by Samajini.

He is the FT reporter who broke that story. Joins us now. Thanks so much for coming on. What more can you tell us here? Look, the live story has been one of these sports business stories over the past few years. It was a huge experiment to see if Saudi capital could transform. sport. And what we're what we're hearing today is that that support is is at risk. And this is, you know, this is sending shockwaves through the world of sport. People have been,

been concerned since the Iran war broke out. I mean, it coincides with the public investment fund announcing this new five-year investment strategy today to what's being termed narrow its focus, said to be in the works before the war, but do we have the feeling that the war has sort of forced their hand in some respects to move away from this big investment in golf? To be sure, this has been a heavy investment. Liv has raised at least $5 billion. And when we're talking about that kind of money, and we've recently reported that leave wasn't expecting profitability for, you know, for another five to ten years. So regardless of the war, there were big questions.

And now given the volatility in oil markets and the volatility in the region, to me it's not a surprise that that would cost some calls for pause. There was some other reporting out there today of a quote-unquote emergency summit here in New York today, in fact, about the league's future. I'm told from a source familiar that that was inaccurate, that specific idea. Most of the leadership is down in Mexico where their event this week is taking place. I guess the bottom line you take from all that is that live golf. lives or Live Golf dies when the Saudis decide it does. With all due respect to the highly competent leadership of LiveGolf and the CEO here, if the Saudis pull the plug, it's it. That's it.

It feels to me with the amount of investment that it's going to take quite something to prove otherwise. The feeling that we've had is that they've, they've always been in a race, especially since that change of leadership, to build a commercial business to back up what is a high-cost tour. And taking on the PGA tour and building something global, a tour that goes around the world is not a cheap effort and keeping those names. It was one thing to recruit the big names, but that's an ongoing cost to a tour. To a tour tour and there's all sports that I cover at the elite end, you know that the top talent is costly, and that ultimately is what drives eyeballs and what attracts sponsors. And in fairness to live,

they have attracted some of the big corporate sponsors of late. It's just that when it comes to the cost base and the amount of support, the scale of the support from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund in recent years. That's why ultimately, depending on what comes out of these discussions, the future of Liv, you've got a question as you have. It's an important point you make, and I think worth having put out there. The economics have actually improved. Revenues well ahead of last year, sponsorships are up, ticket sales are way up, 10 teams are profitable for events. are profitable. I understand the whole

dynamic isn't profitable. However, things have improved. I guess I would ask you before we go, I think we all remember that morning back in 2023 when my colleague, David Faber, broke the news on this network of this merger between LiveGolf and the PGA Tour. Why has it been so difficult

for that merger to get to the finish line, do you think? Well, that day I remember so well, I remember Yasser Al-Romayan and J. Monaghan talking to me and a colleague on a video call. I think I still have a screenshot somewhere because I couldn't quite believe it after the clash and the acrimony involved. Look, I think that one key lesson from all this is actually the Saudi sovereign wealth fund, very, very powerful. great investor to have on your side. But there is still power to the American billionaire, to the John Henrys of this world, who invested in the PGA tour.

And therefore, they didn't need to bring in the Saudi investment. So, yeah, I guess the American investor is alive and well in that regard, and very much embedded and crucial to the business support. Yeah, good reporting, and I appreciate your time so very much. Sam, thanks. We'll talk to again soon. That's Sam Ageny. Thank you so much. Still ahead, Top Hicks and Tech, intelligent alphas, Doug Clinton tells us the names he's now betting on as the NASDAQ goes for 11 straight up days. And heads for a new record closing high as well. Bell's back after this. All right, we're back, the S&P 500 hitting a fresh record high today. The NASDAQ is heading for its 11th straight day of gains and a record.

closing high as well. For more on this rally, let's bring in Intelligent Alphas Doug Clinton back at Post 9. Good to have you back. Good to be back. Well, you make it this market, man. It feels a little crazy when you say 11 days in a row. Anytime I see that kind of duration of rally, you always have to worry about a short-term pullback. But I do think it makes sense in the context of this, Scott. Think about what caused some of the turmoil over the last month, things going on in Iran, energy prices. Those things really don't have that much of a bearing on that. AI trade, in my opinion. Hyper-scalers weren't going to change any of their plans based on energy prices. And consumers certainly haven't changed how they've been using AI. So I think it makes sense

tech's kind of return to where it was before the pullback. If you're in an environment where you have an existential crisis, like a war, you sort of sell first and you don't really have the time to think about all that stuff. So these stocks were at risk like everything else, which is why the overall market went down like it did. Are you surprised at how quick. we rallied back to new highs? I'm half surprised, I think, just because we saw something similar last year. And, you know, I know a lot of people talk about sort of the pattern matching of the market, always buy the dip.

This is kind of another example of buy the dip mentality. And so it's surprising that it's been 11 straight days and all of a sudden it feels like everybody wants to own these AI companies again. But I think on the other hand, right, the market has been trained to sort of do this. And so it's not surprising from that. Crazy resilient, right? Like, look at that. That's a three-year.

Put that back up, guys. Could you please? That's a three-year on the S&P. And certainly after early 25, you're talking about so-called liberation day. And that's that V-shaped bounce that you see right there. And then you have an exact same pattern developed here. So is it tech that's going to sounds to me like you think lead us to higher highs now? I still think you want to own tech. I think the bottom line is you look at what's going on in AI. I'm sure people sometimes get exhausted hearing about AI all the time. But think about a few things that have recently happened. Uber's CTO just yesterday said that he spent his entire AI budget in Q1, basically.

He had to go back to the drawing board to figure out, how can I spend more on AI? That's the moment I think we're in, Scott, where it's not about can these models do things. It's how much can we get them to do. And enterprises are spending real money on these models now justifies this buildout. And I think the buildout will continue to be very aggressive because we can't meet demand still. But then why then do you say that your models, your AI models at Intelligent Alpha are moving away from Nvidia? Stocks up like 11 days in a row. If you're as bullish on AI, how are you moving away from Nvidia now as the momentum seems to be back?

Yeah, at Intelligent Alpha, we do use the AI models to do our portfolio management. What our models have been doing really over the last month, they've been moving a little bit away from Nvidia. so we still own it, just to be clear, and into more of the aggressive names like a Marvell, like a Cretto, like a Western digital. And so we still have a lot of exposure to that semiconductor theme, but just a little bit less exposure to InVDVIDA.

I don't know. I have a hard time believing that tech, especially large-cap tech, is going to lead this market to that next leg higher and somehow Nvidia is going to sit it out. Unless Microsoft looks like maybe it's woken up. Is that going to carry it now? I still think software is tough.

I mean, Microsoft is, obviously been, I think, the worst performer of the MAG-7 year today. Yeah, well, look at it. The chart's terrible. And I think the- Show the chart again, guys. It looks brutal. And I think the reality for Microsoft is they are maybe the MAG-7 that's most exposed to this idea that

AI agents are going to go and disrupt enterprise, and they're going to change the way that companies use software. I don't think that question's still been answered. And so if you're a software investor, you're getting a nice bounce today. Jensen Wong made some good comments about his thoughts on the duration of some software. But I still think long term, you have this open-ended question about the duration of these businesses and the multiples because we don't know how AI will change how companies actually use those software tools versus just letting the AI agents build it themselves. See you soon. Doug. Thanks, man. Thanks, Doug. Clayton. Up next, the biggest movers as we head

into this record setting closed today. Christine is back with that. What do you see? Autonomous vehicles, AI partnerships, and a major workforce cut. Those three stories, moving stops right now will break them down after this short break. Our, with 10 from the bell, back to Christina now for the stock she's watching. Tell us. Let's start with shares of GitLab. They're rising roughly 8% on an expanded partnership with Google Cloud. Under the deal, Google Cloud customers would be able to use the GitLab dual agent platform with Google's Vertix XAI models. GitLab's stock, though, is down about 40% year-to-day. A trend, though, among the software group as a whole year-to-date. Uber's shares gaining 6% after the Financial Times reported that Uber has committed more than $10 billion to buying thousands of autonomy.

vehicles. It follows aggressive deal-making from Uber to really just avoid disruption from robo-taxies. Uber pacing for its best day since June. And Snap Shares are up roughly 7% after the company said it would lay off up to 16% of its workforce that amounts to roughly 1,000 people in a memo to employees, CEO Evan Spiegel said the cuts are necessary to boost efficiency and will save the company $500 million in the second half of this year. Scott. All right. Christina, thank you. Tina Parts in other. Coming up next, we're heading for the record books. The S&P and the NASDAQ are now tracking to close at new all-time closing highs. Don't go anywhere. The market zone is next. We'll follow it right to the finish.

We're now in this closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Larry Adam from Raymond James here to break down. These crucial moments of the trading day plus, McKenzie Segalos is watching this big rise in Robin Hood for the second day in a row. Michael, you first on this record run for stocks. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's interesting. interesting how it's happening, Scott, obviously. It's a top heavy move. It is NASDAQ 100. It's essentially money flowing to quality that got to be at a discount. It's also, those are the stocks that can kind of quickly get you exposed to an upside move in the market. I note with interest that Tesla's had this big pop today. It seems like let's just grab for the laggards where the fast money might go next. Still, you know, it's limited to where there's a lot of conviction

and whether that's the AI buildout story or something else related like power, it's not necessarily dragging everything up with it. So maybe that means the market's being intelligently selective. Maybe it means it's just kind of an impulsive move. I wouldn't fade. You know, you don't want to just, you know, as a reflex, fade a breakout to new highs. In general, new highs are bullish, not bearish. But, you know, I do note that the Dow is still 4% off its high

and you have work to do to figure out if the rest of the market, thinks we're in a back to normal phase. Anything surprise you about this move? I mean, NASDAQ is not that far away now from an intraday high. It looks like it's going to get a closing high today. That's where the action is. It's up another one and a half percent today, up like 10 or 11 straight days. Arguably, the speed is a little surprising.

I would say that the angle of ascend in NVIDIA has been a jolt because it had been sideways for so long, and it just sort of shows you we had a compressed spring type dynamic there. So just how quickly people have gone and reached for the real speculative stuff. And it just feels like that's the, you know, that's the orientation that people have. They remember the stuff that's going to run. And so there's a big sort of speculative kind of burn off of those risk appetites happening. You know, the bloom energies of the world, which, by the way, it's like one and a half percent of the Russell 2000 waiting right now.

Yeah, no kidding. All right. I have a good one. About five minutes or so. We'll see you then. That's Mike Santoli. Mack, more on Robin Hood. This is leading the S&P for the second.

day in a row, right? Right. So Scott, those shares surging 10% today, adding 25% week to date after the securities and exchange commission scrapped its $25,000 minimum balance requirement for day traders. Now, under the new framework, investors of any account size can trade as frequently as they want as long as they can cover the risk on each trade, and that is significant for Robin Hood specifically because its average account balance is much smaller than the traditional brokerages. Fund Stratt calling it unequivocally bullish for Hood in particular.

The company also pushing deeper into private markets with its Ventures Fund, ticker RVI, that gives retail investors exposure to late-stage private companies like data bricks and Revolut. Meanwhile, Bernstein reaffirmed an outperform rating with a $130 price target 50% upside from here, citing crypto resilience and a prediction markets business that they expect to really quadruple revenue this year. So Scott, Robin Hood really stacking the key. catalyst right now. Yeah, good stuff. Mack, thank you. McKenzie Segalis. Larry, I pivot to you where you say bottom line, we're cautious on the market overall. You missed a heck of a run then.

No, I mean, we've been invested in this market. We're just a little bit more cautious by the end of the year. Our target is 70-50. But I do think what's happened here is that we've got a little reset here. For all the hype that we've been talking about technology, keep in mind that it's only up 2% year-to-date. So I still think this market's going to be led a lot higher with technology really participating as we go forward. But if I say you've got to be surprised at the magnitude and the speed of this move, that would be accurate, right? Absolutely.

I mean, in 11 days, 11 days ago, we were sitting here at the depths of the Iranian conflict, and now we're up 11%. That's like in the 99th percent off for 11-day rally. So I think the speed has surprised a lot of people along the way. Why do you think that is? The earnings durability, the economic durability, and that's just trumped everything else. I think it's been a trifecta, right?

I think valuations were incredibly attractive at the lows. The economy continues to be resilient. You've seen that with bank CEO talking about it on their earnings calls. You've seen it in the beige book today. You've seen it in real-time activity metrics. So that's been a positive. And then so far, earnings season has been impressive. And I think it's going to continue to be another really solid quarter from an earnings profile.

Yeah, which is why I guess you would like tech here because they're going to lead in earnings and it's talking about valuations they've compressed to some even more attractively now to get in. No, absolutely. I mean, when you're talking about earnings growth for this year of 40% with basically a market multiple, you're getting double the earnings growth with the same market multiple. So I think that's a good risk-reward setup. And one thing I would tell investors is that it's not unusual for tech to underperform early in the year. This happened in three of the last five years, but by the end of the year, it's been, you know, the leader by far.

So we're looking for a pretty nice year-end rally here between now and the end of the year for tech. We'll leave it right there because that's a perfect segue. We'll talk to you soon. Larry, thank you, ending it there because now we have a new intraday high for the NASDAQ as well, 24,000 and 25. That was hit just seconds ago. So we're going to get a new closing high for the NASDAQ today as well, a heck of a run that we've seen. in technology stocks said Microsoft, a huge winner today. Last check was up around 5%.

So that's helped lead the way. Dow has cleared its losses for the most part. Looks more flat. S&P never flows higher than that bell signals that it has for this day. I'll send it over time and I'll see you tomorrow.