Closing Bell - Closing Bell: 4/4/25

Episode Date: April 4, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

OK Andrew thank you very much welcome to the closing bell I'm Scott Wapner live from post nine right here at the New York Stock Exchange in the center of all of this this make or break hour begins with Trump's tariff sell-off stocks plunging again as his trade war escalates China retaliating now and nobody knowing where all of this is really heading. Let's show you the score card with 60 to go in this tumultuous week for your money a brutal picture as you know by now we're looking at basically 5% declines across the board the scorecard with 60 to go in this tumultuous week for your money. A brutal picture as you know by now. We're looking at basically 5% declines across the board Dow pretty much

sitting there not too much off the lows of the day. It's the worst week for the S&P since the COVID days of 2020. The NASDAQ just hammered today lots of big losses in some very big and widely held names as well. You could go down the list, Apple's, Nvidia's, Microsoft and Amazon, Alphabet, et cetera. Nvidia hit hard. Apple below a hundred bucks by the way. Now below three trillion dollars in market cap. And how about the travel and leisure names getting crushed yet again?

Almost everywhere you look today, it has been a very tough session. Tough screens to look at. It takes us to our talk of the tape. How bad is it really going to get? Isn't that what everybody wants to know? Let's ask our panel for some answers. Avery Sheffield, Advantage Rock, Cameron Dawson, New Edge Wealth, Malcolm Etheridge of Capital Area Planning Group. Malcolm's a CNBC contributor. It's great to have everybody here. What's going through your mind? What do you think?

Yes, yeah, very dynamic time, right? It seems like the markets are hinging right now on Trump and what he decides to do with the tariffs and every country's response. And so, you know, given that uncertainty, you know, we're still trying to look at where's there asymmetry, where's there asymmetry to the upside and the downside. You know it does look like from the actions today that you know maybe things will be tougher with China because China's coming back with a retaliatory terrorist. Maybe they'll be easier with Vietnam because Vietnam says look we want to really play ball and so I think that things could play out differently by country and given our exposure to imports in different businesses

to those different countries, we could have very different outcomes for those businesses. Are you looking to buy on days like we've just had or are you afraid to buy? Because you're not sure where all this is going, as I said in the intro. Right, so we actually are starting to see some opportunities both to buy,

but also, we run long and short, but also to be continued to be short. And the areas that, you know, we think are most interested are stocks actually in consumer discretionary that have been so beaten up, they're like potentially pricing in tariffs. So stocks that are down to kind of pre-COVID lows from like pre-COVID, and more but still more value oriented because we do think there'll be a trade down effect that we haven't seen over the past few years. You think a lot of the tariff news to your point is already in those names. I think a lot of the tariff news is already in those needs. And especially when you start to

see countries like Vietnam saying we'll play ball because it's so important to them. I think that that suggests that we won't have the worst case scenario. But even if we did have the worst case scenario, I do think that the bigger will get bigger. Like the retailers that have the analytics, that have the tools, that have the value proposition, that have diversified offerings from grocery, you know, more staples to also discretionary will probably be able to take share because this is gonna be very difficult to navigate through for everyone.

Malcolm, I really do feel like people are thinking that when you're down, you know, 2100 points on the down now, plus what we did to the downside yesterday, it's are things beaten up enough that if I'm a longer term investor, I should. It's easier said than done because the pain feels so bad and you're not really sure Where it's gonna end

So when you say longer term investor, everybody's got their own different version of what that means, right? But I think that specifically for younger investors who are watching this and listening to us right now This is the market that you've been waiting for since October 1st I think of 2022 the markets done nothing but go up and to the right and you probably felt like you missed out on your opportunity to really build wealth the way your parents and grandparents have in this amazing growth engine that is the US stock market. This is the opportunity it's an unforced error that was handed to us by the US President and for anybody who's felt like they were locked out of this thing

you look back to 2008 and how many fortunes were created on the back of that great financial crisis I myself graduated into that so I had ten bucks to my name and missed that opportunity this is similar to that for those folks who are looking at this very good quality names that have fallen off of highs by numbers we can't even calculate right now because the numbers keep bouncing on the screen this is your opportunity to ignore the noise and the red on the screen to your point and get to buy. What are we waiting for Cam? Are we waiting for the president himself to capitulate on this to the so-called Trump put to not be able to tolerate this kind of carnage in the stock

market any longer? What is the moment? We are hearing this constant refrain of a hope that you're going to see Trump back off. And maybe that's one of the reasons why we still continue to see this weakness in markets because there is still that hope that maybe you won't see the follow through. I think it's also really interesting,

we heard from Powell today, the Powell put is off the table. The Fed is not seeing this as a reason for them to step in and ease policy. So it really puts the put in Trump's court. And the question is, does he see this as a fundamental restructuring of the U.S. economy, which means that the terrorists are going to stay, or does he see this as just a negotiating tool to get some wins? It's a big, huge huge question mark but probably the ultimate question. Yeah, what do we think about the idea of a Trump put? I mean we came into this year and

after the election thinking well this is a man who cares deeply about the performance of the stock market and his rhetoric over the last couple of days would suggest that not yet, right now maybe he doesn't. He's at his golf club. He's doing other events. He said things are going great. And he says things are going to work out. There's no sense from at least the president yet that he's had enough of watching his screen. Right. Well, I think he said earlier this year that he's really focused on the bond market. And I think he's over the moon about the 10 year below 4%. Right? So he really wants to get interest rates down because interest rates coming down is going

to meaningfully improve, lower the cost of our, of our deficit. And also it's going to spur demand. I mean, today you saw the home builders were actually up. Well, they're up actually for a legitimate reason. If you get interest rates down enough, you even had auto dealers up today, right? You're going to have these terrible auto tariffs. But if you're a dealer that can sell all different brands, sell more American made cars rather than non-American made cars and interest rates go down, that's positive. So I think he feels like interest rates coming down and oil coming down are the two most

important factors to drive more sustainable economic growth over the long term. And he does, it does seem like he really doesn't care about the stock market in the short term. And to your point, I think he really wants to give those investors who've missed out on the stock market, the 50% of people who don't have money in the stock market or younger people who've missed out on this opportunity, the opportunity to get in at much lower prices. I think he's fine with everyone who's made a killing to have to suffer and have a redistribution of wealth. Well, he's getting a lower tenure, as the Treasury Secretary has said repeatedly that they are fixated on, Malcolm, keeping interest rates low.

The question is, do you come to a point of no return where you've hurt the economy bad enough through the wealth effect and the uncertainty and the lack of business investment and hiring, even though jobs report today showed a labor market that is reasonably resilient, though jobs are a lagging indicator. So it's really hard to glean too much from that. JP Morgan raises the odds of a global recession to 60 percent. There will be blood was part of their notation. Muhammad Al-Aryan, uncomfortably high risk of recession. Jeremy Siegel, biggest policy mistake in 95 years. Ed Yardeni, getting harder to be optimistic.

Editorials in friendlier op-ed pages like the Journal, Critical, yet again, of this sort of policy? What do you think? If the president doesn't find religion over the weekend, and I mean literally in the next two days and come out Monday with some sort of reversal that put, that we're talking about, it will be long-term effects and lingering effects. I don't know how we avoid recession and I'm more concerned forget the r-word for a second I'm more concerned about the s-word stagflation where we have these inflationary tariffs right we're talking about a uh uh tariff rate going from about two percent

in 2024 to about 22 percent according to estimates in 2025 that's the biggest tax imposed on American citizens and anyone's lifetime alive watching this right now. That can't be overstated. I think that it's very important that we consider what that means for us longer term. The put probably isn't coming. We know that this president doesn't like to reverse course on a whim like that because people are saying negative things, to your point.

He's still golfing, right? So we have to consider the fact that this is probably long-term and lasting, which means that the playbook you came into 2025 thinking you were gonna get to use, we have to rip that up and start over from scratch. Everyone who's sat at this desk for the last five years has talked about a stock picker's market, we're going into a stock picker's market, myself included.

I think we're finally walking into that, to the point about the 10-year impacting mortgage rates. If I were somebody who was interested in buying the mortgage servicers, here's your opportunity to go pick some really good names as an example. If I was somebody who was looking at tech, I don't know how you get a return in the stock market going forward without tech being included in that, I'd be looking at a lot of the tech names, but I'm not going to buy the entire market in aggregate with tech being included in that, I'd be looking at a lot of the tech names, but I'm not going to buy the entire market

and aggregate with the Q's or something else. I wanna pick the individual names that I've been watching and I think are really great companies that shouldn't be selling off at basement prices right now. So this statistic, Cameron, that I'm gonna read you is just from Thursday, and given the declines today, you can probably double it. But the Mag 7 collectively lost a trillion dollars

in market cap on Thursday. Judging by the activity and a lot of those names, you're probably close to a repeat of that. You've had year to date declines that are so significant off the highs of 50% for the Teslas of the world and 38 for Nvidia and so forth down the highs of 50% for the Tesla's of the world and 38 for Nvidia and so forth down the list. It's just ugly. Have they come down enough? So on Monday, we published a bear market price target of 4,700 on the S&P 500 and we thought on Monday that that was a really

scary number. We never thought that we would get that far that fast. We're in 5% spitting distance of it. And part of it was recognizing that you still had a very high multiple, a lot of air to come out of multiples, given where we were starting on Monday. And a lot of that air is coming out of the Mag 7 and coming out of names like the Big Tech names. But you're still trading at 21 times forward in the Big Tech index. You bottomed around 19 times in 2022. So to your point, you're likely getting close. We do think tactically,

given the degree of oversold statistics that we're likely to see in percentage of names at 20 day highs, put call ratios, flows into short ETFs, that you're likely near a tactical low or a tradable low in markets just because we've moved so far so fast. Does that mean that this is a V-shaped recovery? We don't think so.

We think that you have dented this trend enough that you certainly could see more of an unwind post that bounce, but at least in the very short term, the degree of oversold suggests that you could see some kind of tradable bounce. You know, the big question, I guess, is gonna come down to what earnings end up being through all of this.

I'm not sure you're going to get a great read starting next week. You will more so in the commentary than the numbers. If you look ahead to next year, as Wall Street obviously always does, and you've had Goldman come down from $280, $280 on the S&P earnings to $ 269. And who knows if that's going to be legit or they're going to have to reduce again. 17 times that is 4590. We're at 5100. All right, give you 18 times. Give you 18 times. That's 4842. My point being it's still significantly lower than where we are now and we suddenly have so much uncertainty introduced in the whole equation of what earnings are going to be and what you should be paying for

stocks. Agreed and I think there are still a lot of stocks that have very meaningful downside. I mean the entire almost the entire software sector not all of the software sector I mean those companies valuations are dramatically higher than the market. And still, and you still think they're too high. Absolutely. And I mean, we're seeing, I mean, just it checks even out through the past few days that there's significantly more increased business scrutiny on large software deals

and software is considered to be a cyclical. It's actually acting very cyclically in the checks that we're hearing. Of course we'll hear, and you know, in the earnings announcements and forecasts, you know, you have a lot of other growth names that are trading honestly still on ether evaluations that are economically cyclical. They've been seen to be secular growth stories because they offer services that people really like that they're willing to pay for when they have a lot of money. But when they have less money, maybe people go to Kroger rather than asking

for delivery, for example. So I think that there's a lot of money. But when they have less money, maybe people go to Kroger rather than asking for delivery, for example. So I think that there's a lot of movement still to come. Also in the luxury space, luxury names are still much more expensive in general, and some are very expensive on an absolute basis. And this wealth effect, you would think, would have some impact. So that's why we prefer, I don't know,

a barbell approach. Like we're focused on owning names that are already pricing in a lot of uncertainty. You're talking about multiples, even on earnings that are down maybe 50%, 10 times earnings. Like we're looking at buying stocks like that while shorting stocks that are very expensive

and actually have underappreciated cyclical characteristics. I want to take the other side of that trade. Sell me your shares, right? I'm looking at a company, Cameron, you just mentioned we're down to what? 20 times next year's earnings now on average in the Mag-7. 90 days ago, we were sitting here debating

whether 30 to 40 times next year's earnings was too much to pay for these companies. We just saw Microsoft celebrating their 50th anniversary. Am I worried that Microsoft is gonna go out of business in the next five to 10 years? No. So is this a great place to be adding shares of a company like that, a powerhouse in the tech space,

to my portfolio? Absolutely. I think that realistically, the conversation feels like it has to be short-sighted and we have to really think about valuation today. But I'm really thinking about locking in longer term appreciation over the next five years, ten years and we are being given a gift in this market right now. I would go as far as to say I

think when we're talking about some of the software names that Avery's not necessarily talking about a Microsoft, okay, per se, but some of the other software names that have much higher relative valuations than a Microsoft does, ones that have gotten a nice AI lift. I don't want to pull any names out of a hat. Absolutely, yes. But there are cybersecurity related stocks that have gone up a lot, am I correct? Yes, yes, yes, yes.

We also just heard from Microsoft though, they were asked, are you overbuilding or do you need to pull back on capital spending? And Satya Nadella just said a few minutes ago, well, it does depend on GDP. I honestly, that comment stuck with me as well. It honestly stuck with me right when he said that. I'm like, okay. So one of the bull cases was, you know, all of this capex that these mega cap companies

are going to continue to spend. Well, what happens if GDP falls out of bed? What happens if some of these calls that I have today of the firms that I read to you that are taking down or their growth estimates or raising their probabilities of recession? Do you think that those tens of billions of dollars that investors have counted on these companies spending

are going to still be spent? I heard Nadella say not so fast. Yeah, Microsoft makes software that goes into employment. So if you're seeing fewer people get hired, you need fewer licenses for Microsoft Office. If you have Meta, Meta is 98% advertising. Advertising is a cyclical business, same thing with Google.

Amazon is a consumer business. Apple, consumer business. Tesla, consumer business. This notion that these Mag 7 names are not cyclical and not sensitive to the U.S. economy is absolutely preposterous. Are they higher quality? Do they have better free cash flow margins? 100% yes, but we all still do breathe the same economic air.

It's true. All the other- Right? As bullish as you might be relative to the declines, I think that's a perfect way of framing it. So not to make this the Microsoft party, but I was listening to the earnings call last quarter and heard Amy Hood say something to the effect of we've got about $300 billion in contracts that we can't even put on our books as receivables because we don't know

when we're going to be able to build the capacity to meet that demand. That to me is a bullish signal that regardless of what is happening in the near term with the trade war, Microsoft is going to be fine. And I keep using them as my example, but I'm realistically talking about all of the big tech names that don't rely on the consumer. So Microsoft is not directly tied to the consumer. Nvidia is not directly tied to the consumer. Anybody else like an Apple who has to rely on China

and other parts of Asia, I understand the concern. But here, we're talking about software companies that aren't tied to the consumer, and they're going to continue to make those investments because they can clearly see where that's gonna pay off. Yeah, I mean, we talked software. I ran through Nvidia, obviously. If you look at some of the other chip names,

you could almost throw any one of them up. Broadcom, Micron, Taiwan Semi, AMD. The charts pretty much look like that. Christina Parts-Novellos, as you know, follows this space so closely and has been watching all of this transpire. Just tell us some more about what you see. Well, you mentioned all of the bloodbath,

but these chip stocks really continue to fall just over the past two days, despite the initial exclusion from Wednesday's broader tariff announcement. Just yesterday, this according to the wall street journal, president Trump revealed aboard air force one that chip stocks that are chip tariffs were actually coming. And that's really what put the sector into free fall. So like you mentioned, Nvidia down 14% since Wednesday's close. That's wiping out nearly $400 billion in market cap. That's like wiping out an entire Netflix or Oracle. The impact could be particularly severe for

companies heavily dependent on China, given the escalation. Intel Applied Materials, Qualcomm, each derive at least 30% of their revenues from China and they're down between, look at that on your screen, 5 to 11%. The SMH, which is a good barometer for chips, it's an ETF, has dropped over 15% in almost two days and that's outpacing the broader market, the S&P 500. We'll show you that, just the two against each other in a second. And it's during the same period. So chips are definitely facing a lot of pain, even a double whammy, as I like to say, because you have these looming new tariffs that President Trump has alluded to, and then you also have existing AI diffusion export controls

that should come into effect in mid-May, restricting the sale of advanced AI hardware to certain countries that are separated into tiers. And some analysts really warn these policies could accelerate China's development of domestic alternatives to US chip technology creating this long-term competitive challenges specifically for American term firm So you're getting the tariffs and then you have the AI diffusion rules that we need to keep in mind Coming soon All right, Christina. Thanks for that

Helping us understand all of that a little bit better today too. You bought NVIDIA at the open today. I did. Bought more of it. So you feel like that's enough is enough and even if you don't catch the right, exact right moment, it's still okay? Well, I'm not necessarily bullish

on the entire chips sector, right? So I'm not buying NVIDIA necessarily because I'm bullish on the AI revolution, which I am. I'm actually looking past it because eventually inference in the data center is going to pass us. It's going to move to mobile. It's going to move to the cloud.

And I think that we have to consider the fact that Nvidia is going to play a really big part in autonomous driving when it comes in. Specifically, I'm talking about autonomous trucking. And so for me, this is an investment in Jensen Wong's ability to find the next parade and get out in front of it. And I think that Nvidia is going to participate in that expansion of autonomous because we have no choice right now.

We're down something like a million or so truck drivers and they're not being replaced by younger people anytime soon. And so I think that the only solution is gonna be a tech solution. And Nvidia to me is probably the better way to play that space. I would say the other, you know, big story today, aside from talking about a potential Trump put or one is enough enough, at least in the White House's mind, is how the feds

thinking about all this. The other half of that or the other side of that coin too is a alleged fed put. Does one exist? Appears lower than this though. Certainly if you listen to the Fed chair today, let's bring in our senior economics reporter Steve Leesman with more on that. That's the big takeaway, right? He's content with just waiting and seeing.

If you might, Scott, I'm not sure how content the Fed chair is to see the market come off like this. And I know that's not what you meant, but I just want to be clear here. I'm pretty sure he's not content about that. Look at me, did he acknowledge publicly what markets have figured out and they're trying to and they're selling off on? The effects of these tariffs on the economy and inflation are going to be larger than anybody expected, larger than he expected.

And he may have, as you suggest, Scott, disappointed markets in saying the Fed is in no hurry to change its policy and is going to make sure temporary tariff inflation doesn't turn into permanent inflation. Our obligation is to keep longer run, longer term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem Now he did he did go on to say the economy is in good shape that policy is still moderately restrictive and Tariff inflation could be temporary or more persistent. Here's how the market is pricing the Fed 34% probability of a cut in May it had been higher before Powell spoke up near 50, but there's still, call it four cuts

built in, there had been five cuts built in. So the market does think the Fed comes to the, I don't know, rescue here eventually, and that might be the key. The question here, whether the economic effects of this market downdraft becomes serious enough to become another economic factor that motivates the Fed to act, they'd have to assess it very seriously to overcome their concerns, Scott, about tariff inflation. Let me ask you a question real quick, because I feel like it's one that's being discussed and still debated. The difference between the market

the difference between the market and the real economy and the wealth effect being taken down by such dramatic levels at least this week and overall if you look at the decline in the stock market from the most recent highs and whether there's a closer relationship than ever between that wealth effect and the real economy and if that's something that they would be more concerned about as a result. I think that is something they're concerned about. For sure, the idea that there is a wealth effect, it's, you know, five cents on the dollar

depends upon, you know, what measurement you use. There's also a sentiment effect. There's also an effect, Scott, through the cost of capital. You saw a couple IPOs withdrawn today. What does that mean? It means companies that were going to raise capital to put to work, to invest in the economy, hire workers. That ain't happening right now. So that's another economic factor that comes through. And Scott, if I might, I was fascinated by your panel. I'm thinking about how this market is trading. And I believe it reminds me of another time

when the market traded with a certain opacity. And I was listening to Claudia there earlier and the idea of where are the losses from these tariffs? I don't know that the market knows where they are. And you can think about a bunch of indirect and direct effects. Some companies will be hit directly by the tariffs. Other companies sell to those companies. Some companies are going to be hit with retaliatory tariffs.

And I was fascinated by the discussion, which I think everybody has to do right now, which is to step back and say, is this indiscriminate selling as a result of opacity because we don't know where the losses are? And is there a way for me to look in and figure out this company is immune, this company is going to lose and this company is going to win. It's very hard to do that right now, especially because there's a broader overlay here of what is the macro effect on all of the companies if there is indeed a recession. We talked to Bruce Casbin from JP Morgan earlier, you talked about a recession call,

also says that if you do get into a recession, corporate earnings could be marked down by 20 to 25%. I don't know that the market is there yet, and I'm not saying the market ought to be there. Steve, thank you very much. That's our senior economics correspondent, Steve Leesman, on all things Fed and the economy for us today. I appreciate that. Cameron, I will go back to you. I just want to ask you, do you

think, it was a couple weeks ago, you know, we had this moment of, maybe it was a few weeks prior to that, as momentum was rolling over there was a significant amount of deleveraging going on from the hedge fund community, multi-strat and whoever that were just caught on the wrong side of where we were. Do you feel like that process is fully over from long only hedge funds that may still be out of position a little bit, some of those larger firms that run a bunch of different kinds of strategies? How are you thinking about that issue and how should we be?

Yeah, when we talked a few weeks ago, what we noted was that the Deutsche Bank consolidated positioning indicator had fallen from the 98th percentile to start the year and it was in the mid-20s to say you'd taken a lot of length out of this market. But what's interesting is that in that slight rebound we had in late March, you saw a lot of length get put back in. The other interesting thing is that despite the fact that you saw a plunge in AAII sentiment, you did not see that plunge in the equity allocation. So equity allocations were still a couple percentage point

from all time highs or multi-decade highs. So people said that they were bearish, but they weren't quite selling yet. I have a feeling when we run those numbers over the weekend and rerun them today, that they'll look a lot more bearish. You'll see positioning be closer to the single digit percentile. And we'll look for those flush indicators as well to see what Steve was talking about,

that indiscriminate selling. That's why we look at things like percentage of names at 20-day lows, because it gets you to the point where people are throwing the baby out with the bath water. And that usually is a sign when correlations go to one, that's a sign that a lot of the selling pressure is at least close to being over in the short term. It often happens too with capitulation by the retail investor. But the data that I saw today from JP Morgan suggests just the opposite. That yesterday through the declines that we witnessed that retail was buying and buying

a lot because they like so many of you and others who are watching this program said maybe enough is enough and I'm a longer term enough investor where maybe this is a good enough opportunity. Yes. And just before before we started the conversation, I actually heard that today there's actually been dramatic retail selling. So that just reversed. Yeah, reversed in the past day.

So I think that's a very interesting dynamic. You know, of course you don't know how much further there is to go, but they were excited to buy on the dip yesterday and today they're scared and really starting to sell. So I don't know how much further there would be to go, but retail is starting to get a little nervous. Okay, a lot of people are.

A lot of people are. And on that note, just to wrap this up, I'll just read you what Lloyd Blankfein posted on social media earlier today in terms of people are. A lot of people are. And on that note, just to wrap this up, I'll just read you what Lloyd Blankfein posted on social media earlier today in terms of people getting nervous, in terms of real people out there getting nervous, retail and otherwise. Quote, the switchboard at the White House

must be burning up with governments trying to surrender in this trade war. Why not give them a chance? Make the 10% minimum tariff immediate, but defer the quote unquote reciprocal part six months. Take the win. The president said he'd make us tired of winning. I'm there now.

I presume there are a lot of people out there who may feel the same watching their retirement accounts get just hammered over the last couple of days, and certainly this week. Everybody, thanks so much for being here. Avery, Malcolm, and Cameron, we'll see all of you soon. We are getting some news regarding TikTok, some more. There's been a lot this week, Eamon Jarvis.

What do you know? Scott, we have a statement now from ByteDance, and this is potentially significant. Here's what ByteDance has to say about this ongoing conversation. They say, ByteDance has been in discussion with the U.S. government regarding a potential solution for tick tock U.S. An agreement has not been executed. There are key matters to be resolved. Any agreement will be subject to approval under Chinese law. So a couple of thoughts there Scott one is potentially significant here that bite dance is confirming that there are conversations going on here with the U.S.

government and bite dance. That's new as of today. They're also talking about a potential solution here. They're not using the word sale of TikTok U.S. So that's something to look at. Maybe bringing on more investors, more dilution, that sort of thing. We don't know what exactly that means. And also the last line of this statement here, Scott, I would flag for you.

Any agreement will be subject to approval under Chinese law. what exactly that means. And also the last line of this statement here, Scott, I would flag for you, any agreement will be subject to approval under Chinese law. That brings into play Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, who will have a say here. And the question around the TikTok sale has been and remains, does Xi Jinping want to sell this or does he feel that he's being bullied into a sale by Donald Trump and will those interpersonal and geopolitical dynamics get in the way of a transaction here or is there some way that the president of the United States can leverage these new tariffs in order to cut a deal with the Chinese government?

All that's still TBD but we do now have a confirmation that there are some discussions at least going on right now, Scott. I think those are the most important points to consider too is what ultimately does China decide to do and how, if any way, does this play into this new dynamic of an escalating trade war, right? That's a real interesting card that could be played on both sides. interesting card that could be played on both sides. Right. The question is, you know, how much does China value having TikTok versus this ongoing escalation of a trade war? Do they value having TikTok more than, say, a lever to de-escalate in the trade war and

give President Trump some kind of a win here so the president then has a path to de-escalation. Maybe they do or maybe they value TikTok and they don't want to be pushed into a deal that they feel is unfavorable to them and they say, you know, we're going to hold it and we're going to make the president eat the political pain of being the American president who shuts down TikTok and, you know, reaps the wrath of the millions of TikTok users in the United States. It's very hard to suss out exactly where this one's gonna

land, Scott. Yeah, no shortage of potential buyers, as we've learned over the last 72 hours or so. Eamon, thanks for the update. You bet. Eamon Javers in Washington. Multiple companies reportedly delaying their IPOs now, including Chime and eToro.

Leslie Picker is here with the very latest Easy to See Why. Yes, very easy to see why, Scott. And for a minute there in 2025, it seemed like we had a few dogged IPO candidates willing to brave the policy uncertainty and tap the public markets, but the last few days have really slammed that window shut, at least temporarily.

I'm told Klarna and StubHub were set to launch their roadshows to market their deals to investors just next week. But of course, this massive sell off and spike in volatility are huge headwinds for these companies to maximize pricing and prospective investors are very much tied up in managing their own portfolios with little appetite to take roadshow meetings right now. Put together, this is either a speed bump or a red light on the road toward this capital markets revival that we've been hearing about.

In the first quarter, USIPOs were actually up by 43% in terms of combined offering size and 74% in terms of the number of listings, but M&A activity still pretty dormant, meaning investment banking revenue overall is expected to have declined in Q1 as bank earnings kick off a week from today. And that's just a piece of the banking story.

Take a look at some of the recent performance. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, sizable declines here, declines yesterday as well as concerns that the trade war makes the recession more likely. Analysts say that even though banks are not directly impacted by tariffs, they could put a cloud over much of their client base, which can thwart loan growth and deal making and wealth management. And potentially later in the year, we could see some issues with credit quality. Scott.

All right, Leslie, thank you very much for that. That's Leslie Picker. Now let's bring in Chris Toomey of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. What are you telling your clients? Thank you for being here, by the way. Thanks for having me. What are you telling them? We're telling them this is why we've been so defensive.

I think in our mind, we were really concerned about a lot of different issues that we think we're gonna push that P-E multiple down. We saw this affect P, and we think we've seen kind of the first phase of this, right? We saw a situation where prices have come down. We saw this effect P and we think we've seen kind of the first phase of this, right? We saw a situation where prices have come down. What's interesting is, is you're starting to see that kind of first level of group that would be affected by tariffs and they've come down. Now we're really getting into that second level with regards to the knock on effects

of this. We've seen GDP growth starting to come down, inflation numbers picking up, consumer confidence coming down, CapEx is coming down. We're starting to enter into that earnings period. We're now concerned about that E part of the P.E. What do you do when they say, but yeah, Chris, Trump likes the stock market. He's not going to tolerate this for that much longer. And, oh, by the way, the Fed, I've always believed in the Fed put. It's not gonna tolerate this for that much longer. And oh, by the way, the Fed,

I've always believed in the Fed put. It's worked for me every time. Why is it gonna work now? I don't necessarily think the Fed put is gonna be on the table for a little while. I think our concern is, is a lot of these actions are inflationary. And I think if you saw Powell's comments

and you guys were just talking about that, I think he's still on hold. I think he's concerned with regards to what these actions are going to do with regards to inflation. A lot of the responses that companies can do in regards to dealing with these tariffs are going to increase prices, whether it's increasing prices to the underlying consumer or increasing prices with regards to how they manufacture these goods. And this idea of bringing manufacturing to the US is great, but it's going to take

time and it's very costly. What if I said, well, I can make the argument that it's deflationary. You're going to I mean, you're hurt in demand. You're crushing the psyche of the American consumer, the American CEO and the American investor. Rates are going down at a fairly rapid clip. Why isn't this going to end up being the other way? Because you're not going to see that economic activity pick up.

You're not going to be in a situation where people are going to be wanting to buy goods. They're going to be wanting to hold on to things. So activity is going to come down. GDP is going to come down. Prices have to stay higher just because it costs more to produce them. So whether it's labor costs, whether it's actual costs of actually manufacturing them, all of those costs are going to stay higher and it's going to reduce the ability for us to actually.

Okay, so you're talking about stagflation. That's our concern. So if you're in a situation where we're going into a recession and the chairman of the Federal Reserve is saying, I'm not necessarily jumping in here and cutting rates. Well, not today. Yeah, but what's gonna happen in the market for the next couple weeks, in our mind,

I think that still needs to be priced into the market. I still think you're in a situation where you now start having to move up the probability of recession. People are. And you're gonna start to have to take those earnings expectations down. People have. And so if you're looking at that and you're saying

okay if my earnings expectation is let's say going from 28 to 280 to 250 and I'm gonna put 18 on that you're talking about kind of a 4700 on the S&P 500. Okay I read through a bunch of different scenarios like that as you know I use the Goldman number because that's you, a lot of people use that number from 280 to 269. You don't even believe the 269. You think earnings and expectations for next year are that dramatically high? Because from 269 to 280 to 250 is a big come down there. Yeah.

So if you're at 280 and you come down to 250 and you pry it 18 times on that and if you look at 26 and you apply it, you move that back up to 280, you apply 20, that 4,700 becomes an interesting area and that's also an area from a technical standpoint where the 200 week is basically going to be. So in our mind, yeah, you're looking at some opportunities right now where stocks have sold off that are down 20, in some cases 30, 40, 50%, that are starting to look very attractive, but we're also starting to see those knock-on effects. You're talking about Mag-7.

Yeah, these stocks are down dramatically, but what do you think is gonna happen over the weekend? Where do you think Europe is gonna come back, like China did, with regards to their tariffs? They're gonna focus in on those Mag-7 companies, right? And those Mag-7 companies, you know, where the S&P 500, 40% of the revenues come from overseas, the Mag-7, it's over 50%.

So you could see downward pressure just because there's such a huge part of the market. Okay, another client calls you and says, yeah, I hear you, it feels like garbage out there, but Chris, what about tax cuts and the deregulation? We know that's coming. What about that? Well, the question is, can we get there, right?

I think we're in a situation right now where we're used a lot of political capital with regards to these tariffs. The question is, how well are we gonna be able to get there if you've got a lot of congressmen in districts that have a lot of angry constituents with regards to the tariffs and say, before we start talking about tax cuts

for the rich, let's start focusing in on jobs and getting these things going because you're gonna start to see companies in these earnings reports talk about hiring and talking about future projects and there are gonna be a lot more uncertainty about that just like they are in the market right now. Yeah, but I mean the alternative is telling

your constituents that well, we're not renewing the tax cuts, so your tax rates are going to go up as you're already dealing with the ramifications of the tariffs. That doesn't sound very tenable in my mind. No, I think we're in a situation where that was what everybody was expecting, right? And we talked about sequencing. What's going to come first? Is it going to be the tax cuts?

Is it going to be the deregulation, M&A activity, all of these other things? But you're in a situation right now where consumer confidence has come down so much. Like, unless we deal with the tariffs, I don't know how you focus in on these tax cuts. Well, you expected the tax cuts and the other stuff to happen sooner, to happen first?

Look, I expected them to be doing not necessarily as much as they were doing with regards to these tariffs. I think they were, I think the market's expectation was is that they were gonna be a lot more thoughtful and strategic with regards to how they were gonna implement these things. But they put out a bunch of Greek symbols, Chris. Greek symbols.

Yeah, to justify whatever their numbers were and wherever they, you know, whatever they pulled them from. Okay, I must have missed that. But I think the fact of the matter is, is you can look at the activity in the market and the market didn't expect this. Otherwise, you wouldn't.

Oh, there's no question about that. There's no question about that. But to some degree, nor does the market necessarily expect that they are going to remain at these levels in terms of the tariffs. I don't necessarily think the tariffs are going to remain at these levels in terms of the tariffs. I don't necessarily think the tariffs are ever going away, but the notion that you're going to stay at the highest of the high levels, do you believe that? So let's take a step back.

Let's look at one of the greatest bull markets of history driven by two main factors, the increase in globalization and the advances with regards to technology. If we're taking that idea around economies of scale within globalization... Forgot one thing, but I'll let you finish. We're talking about demographics? No. We're talking about the tremendous injection of liquidity into the markets by the Federal

Reserve. Right, which is becoming another problem, right? Because we're looking at the treasury issuance in 2026, which is why people think rates have to come down. But the fact of the matter is, is that you take that away, right? You have to start thinking, what are my return expectations for equities and risk assets in this environment? It's not necessarily a relative game between U.S., Europe, and Asia. This is really a situation where you have to start ratcheting that down if we don't have those economies of scale. Let me ask you lastly before I let you go.

I'm reasonably certain that the advisors at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth on Inauguration Day, certainly on election night, on Inauguration Day did not expect this. Did not expect this. And many were telling their clients, because they were believing it themselves, that this is going to be good for the markets, because Donald Trump cares about the markets and the economy. They're going to put their arms around business in a way that other administrations allegedly have not.

You're going to have a much more robust deal making environment. How much have you had to reset your own expectations from what you thought to what you have? I think this is a key point. When you're looking at a client situation, you have to understand these are things that could happen. And so sizing that equity exposure, sizing that risk in a client's portfolio is critically important.

So that in situations like this, when the market sells off, these are opportunities that you can take advantage of, right? And so if you are overextended with regards to Mag-7 and you're not diversified, you're not gonna be able to take advantage of, right? And so if you are overextended with regards to mag seven and you're not diversified, you're not gonna be able to take advantage of it. So no one knows what's gonna happen as much as you get smart guys on the show.

But the fact of the matter is, is you have to look at the probabilities and protect that capital because it's so painful when you lose it like these markets. Thanks for being here on a really, really big market time for all of us. Thank you, Chris Toomey, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth, as we said.

To contest a brewer now for a check on how travel and leisure is faring not well, we know that. That's an understatement, yeah. And I think what you're seeing here, Scott, really is recession worries, the consumer concerns about how much stuff is going to cost with the new tariffs, and whether that's going to eat into the family travel budget.

And we're watching cruise stocks sinking here, Viking, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Carnival. As you can see, they're all down on the day. Viking the worst on the day, but week to date, now you're seeing Carnival and Norwegian and Royal Caribbean as much as off by 19% this week. Hotels, Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Wyndham lost about 4% today, as much as 10% this week. Hotels, Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Wyndham lost about 4% today, as much as 10% this week. Travel platforms, booking holdings, Expedia, TripAdvisor, really taking it on the nose and gambling while investors are just walking away from the risk here.

Las Vegas stands one of the laggards in consumer discretionary today, Wynn and MGM. Look, they could be facing some major anti-U.S. sentiment in Macau just when they're still trying to get back up to pre-pandemic levels. They've lost between 12% and 16% this week. And then you've got Caesars, Penn, DraftKings, the Game Makers, Light and Wonder, Sphere Entertainment. Everybody's loving these shows at the Sphere, but it is down in a big way because of the worries about whether people will go and spend big on those tickets, Scott. Yeah, wealth effect, the old wealth effect.

We keep talking about that. Contessa, thank you. This is Contessa Brewer here as you see at the New York Stock Exchange. Now let's get to Ryan Dietrich, Carson Group's chief market strategist for how he is navigating this sell-off. You've been unwaveringly bullish, man. I'd say every time we've spoken, maybe you've changed it on other programs,

I haven't seen you. Are you still? Yeah, thanks for having me back and happy Friday, everyone. You know, Scott, I know I was all with you actually in the middle of February this year. We did, on air, said maybe we get a banana peel weakness because we were stretched. Did we expect this expect this no obviously like a lot of your guests have come on probably did not expect the 17% as of now correction

obviously down 13% on the year in the S&P 500 you know I we're still optimistic yes you know you think about it just today I mean I look at credit markets I mean high yield bonds are down like 1% today. They're down about 2% on the year. Now, we understand what's happening out there with people's investments, retirements, all the worry and uncertainty. When you see that, that's positive. Cryptocurrencies are higher today too. I mean, there's not a lot of positives. I get it. But the flesh out, the last comment here, I mean, the VIX is around 45, right? Look back in history, when the VIX hits 45, I think I was on with you back in August of last year when the VIX hit about 45 and we talked about it then that can be that sign of capitulation.

We haven't seen spikes in puts a call ratios. We haven't seen a VIX spike. We've clearly seen that the last two days. So there's some minor positives clearly in a C of negativity. How much worse do you feel like it can get? Um, you know, you've had some people throw out 1987, similar trading patterns that have taken place on a Thursday, Friday, and then a Monday that nobody who lived through that period will obviously ever forget. Obviously, the president can change a lot of things over the weekend.

We just don't know. But how much worse do you feel like it can get or needs to get? Yeah, I don't think it needs to get much worse. I mean, we were close. We're at washout levels. We've seen, I don't know what the exact numbers will be today, but yesterday, like 93% of all volume was lower on the NYSE. I mean, that's historic, historic stuff.

You mentioned 87. You know, we're looking at back to back days on the S&P, down 4%, but down 10% in two days, okay? You got 87 in there, 2008 in there, 2020 and 1940, and maybe these last two days. So that kind of tells you how bad things have been here. You know, but at the same time, one of the things we've been preaching to our Carson advisors is why you want to be diversified.

And I know it sounds kind of boring to say this, but the treasury's up 6% this year, right? Gold, as we know, is up 12%. Most global markets are higher. I know they're kind of boring to say this, but the treasuries are up 6% this year, right? Gold, as we know, is up 12%. Most global markets are higher. I know they're down a lot today. We've liked the US, yes, but we have said preaching to stay diversified this year versus last couple of years where we're all in US.

And I know it came only for a while. I'll say we didn't like tech more neutral tech at best. And now we kind of see why that is. You know, low volatility is still up on the year. I mean, low volatility is an area we have liked. There are some pockets out there that have held up well. We still think low volatility, some treasury, some gold. And honestly, listen, what's the old saying, right?

Stock market's the only place things go on sale and everyone runs out of the store screaming. I mean, there are some really good sales. That mean we're at the lows, but we look back in six months with the VIX of 45, we really do think it's probably gonna be an opportunity for some investors out there. Let me ask you this, everybody says,

well, be diversified, diversification is the key. I mean, it's easy to say, it's harder to describe. What does that mean? 6040 is diversified or whatever the breakdown is, am I supposed to be like under, underweight US stocks through this period and have a much higher weighting to either bonds cash or whatever else? Well, like 60 40 is considered the Bible for diversified. I can tell our tactical models, you know, we're close to about 74% equities here. So the rest is that other part. We've got about 4% gold. We've got some treasuries in there We actually have some managed futures right because we don't think inflation is gonna be a problem

I need to have some great discussions about inflation with guests today We still think inflation would be a problem But if it is those managed futures will help you and in that bucket of about 75% We've got about 20% international a little little very little EM and the rest is us I mean, we still think the US is gonna do okay from where we are now But trust me being over at equities the last two days has not been fun. But again, those bonds and gold have helped you sleep a little bit at night. We still are optimistic that, you know, I guess the answer to your question where you

said how low can we go, I mean, listen, the bear market's only, you know, a couple percent away. I mean, that very well could happen here. But that doesn't mean that that's like that's some phony baloney textbook definition that says, okay, now we're down in a bear market. I could read you, I don't know, 200 stocks out of the S&P 500 that have been in a bear market,

and they're now deeper into a bear market. So a lot of the market has already gone there, which is part of the point about why the destruction has been so dramatic, because so many stocks have already been in that rate. I have so many of them on my screen right now. This is a bear market for the most part.

Well, you're right. And again, a lot of that is obviously Mag-7, communication services, consumer discretionary. We get it. There were some other groups that were up on the year until the last two days. But again, that's kind of where, you know, I know, like you said, preaching the same thing here. But from that diversified point of view, if you

have some bonds in some areas, it's not quite as bad. I mean, 22, let's be honest, 22 stocks down 25%. Bonds had their worst year in history. At least bonds are acting like bonds, getting that diversification. We say diversify your diversifiers. Bonds and gold are acting like that. A little gold down today because everybody's got to sell some of the winners, but it's still not down as much as the overall market. One other thing, you know, small cap and mid caps, I know they've been just annihilated. They are doing a little bit better today.

You got cryptocurrencies up today. So there are some little clues out there, as bad as this has been, that maybe there's some type of positive, positive and the C and negative. A little bit better. I mean, Russell's down 4% today. It's down like 10% on the week.

Right. No, you're right. I'm just talking about today. One's down like 10% on the week. Right. No, you're right. I'm just talking about today. And one more thing on this, if you look at intraday, we're getting real cute here. But if you look at intraday on high-yield bonds, they made their low earlier this morning. Stocks broke their lows this afternoon.

High-yield bonds have not. So again, I really like to follow those high-yield bonds. And they all in all are truly, I think, hanging in there way better. High-yield bonds are down 2.5% on the year. Stock market, we know what it's doing now, 13. And like you said, a lot way better. High yield bonds are down 2.5% on the year. Right? Stock market, we know what it's doing down 13 and like you said, a lot of other stuff in bear markets are down 20.

That's surprising to me and maybe that's one bit of potential good news that the credit markets are not totally freaking out right now that says this will spiral into a 30, 35% potential bear market. Maybe we can bottom sooner, much sooner than that in our opinion. Yeah. I mean, you have the prospects judging by where the markets moving with less than 10 minutes to go that you could get an ugly or even so close. Ryan thanks I'm gonna let you run. Thanks for being here Ryan Dietrich joining us.

Let's get back now to Christina Parts-Nevalos for a look at the key stocks that she's watching. Which ones now? Unfortunately manufacturing stocks they're hit hard today of course you got the sweeping tariffs farm and equipment manufacturers. Like deer CNH tumbling you can see on your screen deer almost 4% CNH industrial down 5% AG AG CO or

AG HCO falling about five and two so just to see of red president Trump had vowed to reprioritize U. S. manufacturing but you have UBS analysts say the trade dynamics pose headwinds for the agricultural sector, so you're seeing those all down. But I have some positive, another green.

GameStop bucking the trend today, higher over, look at that, 11%, and that's because CEO Ryan Cohen increased his stake in the retailer. Cohen purchasing 500,000 shares on Thursday at a little over $21 a share You can see shares are about 2350 and this according to a regulatory filing this brings his stake to about 8.4 percent of shares outstanding. So it's a vote of confidence and GameStop shares up 11 percent Scott. All right Thank you, Christina parts and nevels Kate Rooney's taking a look at Amazon. Did I see something earlier?

That Amazon's been down for like seven straight weeks? Is that right? It's nine, it's going for nine, Scott. So Amazon right now on pace for its worst week. If you go back to November, 2022, and it's the longest weekly losing streak since 2008. So tariffs, bottom line are gonna make things more expensive on the e-commerce side of the business,

on that marketplace. About 60% of sales do come through third parties, and then about a third of that is going to be coming from China. So these tariffs are very much global, though. It's not just China. Amazon products are coming from all over. You've got India, Vietnam, and Mexico, and the White House. This week did scrap a tariff exemption that had boosted Amazon's rivals, Temun Xien.

It was this exemption for packages worth less than 800 bucks. It was seen as sort of a silver lining, but Amazon has also been using that loophole as well. It has a similar discount service it launched back in the fall. Amazon's cloud business, AWS, it's not helping offset any of these tariff fears. Tech, of course, down broadly today, and then the ad business could be hit by the economic turmoil we may see. Still, Amazon is one of the most bought stocks among retail investors.

It's at least according to Vanda research, they're seeing record dip buying from individuals. Scott. All right, Kate. Thank you. That's Kate Rooney out on the West Coast for us. We're in the market zone now. CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is with us now to break down these last moments of the trading day, ones in which we are moving even lower.

We're at the lows of the day across the board, Dow's down 2,100 points plus. Talk to me. Yeah, I mean, these cascading declines, obviously they are just treacherous in themselves and they don't really obey rules in terms of what levels matter. The market has attempted to make the August low matter

all day and it's buckled a few times it's like 51, 10 or something like that. So we're below that. Now what you're actually looking for is just wipe out levels of indiscriminate price and sensitive liquidation. You see some of that today. Finally, record put buying. You have 93% of all volume to the downside. I agree with Ryan in terms of a lot of the safe haven stuff is finally getting whacked. There is no place to hide. Berkshire Hathaway's down.

All of the sub Mag-7 names like Visa and Eli Lilly, where everybody wanted to take shelter, they're finally succumbing a little bit here. And the fact that you have had a little bit of the stuff that was hit the first, that's outperforming today, like the Russell and things like that okay fine that all lines up to say we maybe have done enough the problem is you didn't build any kind of fundamental cushion in here and that's what we're gonna have to

contend with we are at a point where in terms of the this the technical condition and how stretched we are you're gonna have a 10% rally over three days and that's the kind of snapback rallies you get from these levels. And still it would be kind of dead cat bounce on the chart. It would just go up to the markets, you know, 20 day average or whatever it is. So call it what you will.

It's not necessarily a down trending market yet, but we're close enough that the rules are flipping, potentially, if it continues like this a little while, into sell rallies. So barring something significant out of the White House over the weekend, how are we setting up potentially for Monday? I ask you the question, you've seen a lot of markets. Jim Cramer talked this morning on Squawk on the Street about 1987. I've gotten texts over the last few moments from some very big market people saying this looks eerily similar to trading on Thursday, Friday ahead of that Monday. What can you tell us as you're thinking about big picture the markets from the prism of all of these that you've seen. As a general matter, Friday, Monday dynamics are,

there used to be this adage that markets don't bottom on Fridays. And that crashes happen from oversold levels, they don't happen in overbought markets. Now, that's just your general tendencies over the decades of when bad stuff happens. And that Mondays, if nothing else, often you kind of have to test what happened on Friday

and you have to see if there was anything real there. All that being said, that's the exception, not the rule. I mean, we usually don't have these accelerating crash-like declines when we get a deeply oversold market. So I think you have to keep multiple things in your mind at the same time, which is don't ever expect to, if things start to look tactically more favorable because a lot of bad news is priced in

and because nobody's expecting a great headline out of the White House, you can bounce any time, but don't expect that you're gonna catch the absolute low in all this stuff. When you do have these crash-like markets, they don't stay at the low for long. You just never know where it is. And so a lot of times you have to have

that complete surrender. And I don't think, I don't know that we're there. I've been pointing this out for a little while. Maybe I haven't emphasized it enough. But the market, every increment tried to be really cute about saying, now we can buy and play for a rally. That was the exact 10% decline in the initial correction. That was the filling of the supposed gap last week.

That was, you know, even today, going to the August low. Yesterday it was 5,400, which is the September low. So it's understandable that the market wants to say we're almost there, we're almost there. Almost all day we started a 40 vix. Didn't want to go above until it did. Jim's point this morning wasn't that this is or will be. It was more like look here's what happened then. That's right. The kind of trading you have

and the feeling of the thin ice, my words not his, that we're on right now and that the administration needs to figure out a way to get us onto some more stable ground because you can go through thin ice at any moment and you just don't know. No, that's very true. And again, it's one of those things where you have to be cognizant of the possibility that bad can get worse and worse can get terrible. I just don't know how to necessarily play that when you say, look, the bond market is kind of operating in this orderly fashion.

It's calling for the Fed to do something you could say that what the stock market is doing is acting as equity vigilantes and trying to get the administration to actually just back away create some off-ramp have something conciliatory to say and maybe that is what's happening and by the way I think that there's you have to be aware that there is that upside risk that this is all optional what we're doing right here That's why it's just a choice Okay

You make a great point and it's important to always remember and one that we've suggested throughout this moment of turmoil the president the most powerful person on planet Earth Understands that right he knows what his words and his policies have done to this market. It can so easily switch. It goes to the conversation about whether there is this Trump put or not. But that is what still exists and why you could have a reversal at any time. Which is why it's not comforting in the near term to have the president distribute these things that suggest this was part of the plan and have administration officials come out and say oh actually it's all this brilliant idea of getting long-term yields down as if that somehow gonna

move the needle on the overall cost of our treasury debt. But you're right it is something where it is within somebody's power. You have to be aware that we've already kind of gone from underreacting to what's going on to arguably in the very short term overreacting. Alright, thank you so much for really educating us and helping us understand what might be going on within these markets and where they're going. That's Mike Santoli.

Good weekend everybody. I'll see you on the other side. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you.