Closing Bell - Closing Bell: 4/7/26

Episode Date: April 7, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, Kel, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wapner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with stocks on edge. That 8 p.m. deadline looming over the markets. Let's show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation. A little bit of a turn lower in the last few moments. Still no really big moves. ahead of this evening, NASDAQ's been down about 1% throughout the day. Still is. The others about 3 quarters of 1% down. Oil has been higher for much of the day. Took a little bit of a dip, but it moved. up. Perhaps that's why stocks just maybe moved back a little lower as well. So we're watching all of that. How about Apple shares today? Suffering one of the worst days and months. We're going to tell you why in just a little bit. And Broadcom's hired a day. It scored a new deal. We'll tell you with who. That story just ahead as well. Let's begin with our talk of the tape. It is the latest on the war. And we go to our Megan Kassella, who is at the White House with that for us. Hi, Megan. Hey, Scott, the White House now holding firm to the President's latest deadline for the Iranians to make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks to its civilian infrastructure.

And at this point, we're just five hours out from that deadline, and diplomatic talks appear to be on shaky ground. It remains deeply unclear how negotiations are going, whether a deal is still possible or what it would look like. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt telling me in a statement in the last hour that the Iranian regime has until 8 p.m. Eastern time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States. Only the president, she says, knows where things stand and what he will do. And the only thing, Scott, that we've heard directly from the president so far today was via Truth Social this morning, where he warned that a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.

Trump added that he did not want that to happen, but that it probably will. So the rhetoric has escalated, but so have military actions. A White House official confirming to me earlier today that the U.S. struck military targets on Karg Island overnight. Israel's defense forces also warning Iranians not to travel by train today, signaling strikes on rail lines. And Iran has warned that if the U.S. crosses red lines, that their response will go beyond the region. Scott. All right. Megan, appreciate that very much on the north lawn of the White House. Megan Kassella, we mentioned the move today in oil. Pippa Stevens, always watching those markets for us.

joins us now with more. What do you see? Hey, Scott, so not a big move in the oil future is perhaps traders focusing on President Trump in the past postponing these deadlines, but the physical markets continue to flash warning signs. Dated Brent hitting a record of $144.42 per barrel today. That's according to S&P Global Energy. This is the price based on actual bids, offers and transactions between buyers and sellers in the open physical market, meaning it reflects current versus futures pricing. And on the product side, in Singapore, diesel, nearing $300 per barrel with jet fuel also surging. Asian refiners have already started cutting runs, thanks to a lack of feats.

And in terms of Hormuz, we have seen an increase in tankers transiting seven yesterday, including hugging the coast of Oman, but traffic does still remain well below those pre-war levels. Scott? All right. I appreciate the update there. Pippa, thank you, Pippa Stevens. Let's now bring in Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist Liz Ann Saunders for more on these markets. Welcome back.

It's nice to see you. Nice to see you, too, Scott. Thanks for having me. You were last with us on the 25th of March in which you said, quote, we're still very much at the mercy of oil. That holds to this moment, doesn't it? It sure does. We track on a day-to-day basis the day-to-day, as well as intraday correlation between Brent and the S&P, and it stayed firmly in negative territory. I think we had two trading days since the war erupted where you didn't have that negative correlation, but that really has ruled the day. I'm, I think like many people, a bit surprised at the relative resilience of the market, given what we're talking about potentially in five hours. But, you know, that's positioning at this point. I mean, maybe it's also what Wolf research was talking about today,

that in their eyes, the economy remains resilient with the growth outlook solid, even in the face of what's happening. Earning's growth is still projected at more than 14 percent. So as long as those ideas and fundamentals remain intact, is that something to get us over the line here? Perhaps, and it has been very resilient in terms of the outlook for earnings. You've actually seen an increase in expectations for calendar year 2026. It's been largely concentrated, no surprise, one, in the energy sector, number two, in the technology sector. And in the case of the upward revision to tech sector earnings for calendar year 26, that's largely been driven by the combination of Micron and NVIDIA. I think what's happening, though, we'll soon find out, is that analysts are, are not equipped with enough information or color from companies to be making adjustments to earnings, at least for companies that have energy as a high input cost. I think we're close enough reporting season that I think the movement in estimates, possibly up in some segments of the market down. I think that is still ahead of us and we'll start to get more color on that

when earnings season starts in a week or so. Well, good luck to the analysts who are trying to game it all out, right? Because you know what the commentary is going to be. A lot of we don't know. It depends on, et cetera, a lot of that. So we're going to have to base some investment decisions on what we think may happen in the weeks and maybe month or so ahead. Yeah, and you might get some withdrawn guidance, maybe not to the same degree as we saw a year ago when we were in the throes of the tariff tantrum. And certainly not to the extreme that we saw during the early part of the pandemic, when a record percentage of companies with true guidance. But I think the guidance is going to be murkier. I think the questioning on the part of analysts during those conference calls will be about what the vagaries are

of how they're thinking about that is an input cost. How are they adjusting for those input costs? Are they willing to take it in profit margins? Or are they figuring out how to cut costs elsewhere? Certainly labor market related questions will be asked. So I think it's, earning season, these days are always impactful, this is a particularly impactful one because it's an opportunity, again, for us to get sort of micro-level macro-assessment on the part of companies that are reporting. Are you allowing yourself to think beyond this crisis and make the kinds of market calls, knowing that this is at some point going to be in the rear view, and hopefully we'll get back

to focusing on what appear to be still decent fundamentals? I think this is a backdrop where neutrality probably makes a lot of sense from a tactical asset allocation perspective, sort of, you know, stay at your strategic allocations. I think it's not the right time to either make a bet on a turnaround here, an end to the war, whatever that looks like, a quick retreat in oil prices. But as we've learned so much in the past, particularly in the past year, you can see a very quick narrative change via some sort of policy post. And I think there's also an willingness to sort of bet the farm on the most negative outcome. So I think that sort of moment of neutrality is the one that is here right now. Don't try to be a hero in this kind of backdrop and stick close to the knitting. You mentioned positioning earlier. That seems to be, frankly, the most difficult thing to figure out, whether, you know, when this passes, you go back to what was working, this broadening trade and the value trade, or if this is just introduced enough uncertainty that's going to last for longer than perhaps the conflict itself does, that you'll

just have people going back to the growth trade and the mega caps and things like that. Now, I've said this to you on this program before, Scott. I think what will continue to be the case and what's been the case for the better part of this year is that momentum, the momentum, the momentum. trade is rotation. And I think that rotational nature of the market, the fact that, you know, your average member maximum drawdown for the S&P is 18% year to date, where it's only 9% at the index level. That's happened via, you know, rapid fire rotations where leadership shifts on a dime in many cases because narratives shift on a dime. I think we probably go back into that kind of

environment, less at the mercy, just of oil prices in terms of direction. But I think that a lot of money that is looking to make really fast decisions. And what I meant by positioning is we can't judge what the next post is going to be and what the next policy change or narrative change is going to be. What we can do is assess positioning. And if you look at some of the dominant players in the short term in the market retail traders, CTA, systematic hedge funds, there has been a lot of de-risking, maybe not to the kind of panic capitulation extreme, but enough that you maybe have a setup upon some sort of positive catalyst, whatever that looks like. I think we may be in sort of the first two phases of what you often get in a backdrop like this.

You get the correction. You then get a bit of a rally. If the rally doesn't have strong breadth, it sets up the possibility of a retest. And then you look for that breath surge or thrust, as Marty's Wygg, my first boss used to call it, back on the upside again. We're not at those latter steps yet, but that's what I'm keeping an eye on. Because we're at the mercy of deadlines,

timelines, and rhetoric and narratives, and the clock. We'll see what happens. Lizanne, as always, thank you so much. My pleasure. Thanks, thank you. Charles Schwab. I did mention the mega-caps Apple, certainly lower today.

I showed you it as we began the program. One of the worst days in months for more on what is weighing on that stock today. We're joined now by McKenzie Segalis. Tell us more here for what's been a pretty ugly day for this name. So, Scott, this is all about conflicting reports over the first ever foldable iPhone. The stock was down as much as 5% earlier today after NK Asia reported that Apple is hitting engineering setbacks in the test phase of that device with suppliers reportedly told the

production schedule will be pushed back. Right now, April into early May is that critical window to resolve those kinds of issues. But then a few hours later, Apple shares started to pair those losses after Bloomberg pushed back. hard, essentially saying that NICA got it wrong, that the foldable device remains on track for September debut alongside the iPhone 18 lineup, though there could be some initial supply constraints tied to the complexity of the new display. And this is a really huge product for Apple, expected to retail it over $2,000, which would be the most expensive iPhone ever. Out to Apple on this, but no word back just yet, Scott. All right, Mac, thank you. McKenzie Segalis. So still a rough day,

not as bad as it was a few hours ago. Now let's bring in our panel. J.P. Morgan's Mira Pandit and CNBC contributor, Requisite Capitals, Bryn-Talkington. Ladies, good to have you. Mira begin with you on a day where Wells Fargo upgraded tech today and downgraded energy. Let me make a that call.

It's hard to ignore that some of those mega-cap tech darlings have reset a lot this year. So the Mag 7 came into the year with 29 times forward valuations and now are closer to 24. So that's not overly expensive. And when you look at the fundamental backdrop here of some of these stocks, you're still seeing earnings growth in excess of 20%.

So the fundamentals behind a lot of mega-cap tech and the broader tech trade have not necessarily changed. It's just that the sentiment has soured. And I think we need to remind ourselves to seek that balance in portfolios across the board because there are still opportunities here. I mean, you look at the Mag 7, every single one is down this year.

they're all underperforming the index. But you look within them, and the correlations between them went from a high of 78% last May, as you had this Everything rally, to about 35% today. So you can find some opportunities for stock picking within that cohort, but also broadly across tech. And outside of the tech complex specifically, when we think about that broader AI theme, finding its way into some of the value sectors as well. Hey, Bryn, is the valuation reset around many of these names like Mira was just, talking about it. Is that the most compelling part of the story at this point? I mean, we already

knew that you're going to get earnings growth better than other parts of the market. And now you're telling me that I can also get a reset on some of the valuations of these names to go with it. Right. I mean, so if you look at Nvidia, which I think is the poster child evaluation reset, that NVIDIA has not traded at a discount to the S&P from a multiple perspective since 2013. I mean, that's a decade and a third ago. And so, and it's going to grow earnings at 70%. So I think that you're having this, the market, which I always do respect, although I do disagree sometimes, is saying that we don't think these numbers are going to be durable, and they're still questioning the CAPEX.

And to me, to your question, that's where the opportunity lies. And so from everything we all hear, this opportunity set for the picks and shovels like a Dell, like an Nvidia, seems to still be in its early days and the spend is going to come. And so I do think that's the opportunity for investors as these stocks continue to get cheap. I do think when you see Exxon trading at a Ford PE higher than Nvidia, you have to scratch your head and say, hey, maybe this is an opportunity if I didn't own Nvidia to start nibbling here. Obviously own it, but I definitely think it's an opportunity. if you think the durability of the Cappex will continue, which everything we've heard of is the answer is yes. Bryn, how are you thinking about this deadline tonight? I feel like the collective investing universe is waiting for something positive to pop up on their screens

to remind them that what they perceive to be this Trump put back off, whatever you want to call it, is still intact. Is that how you feel too? Well, you know, hope is not an investment theme. So I would just say, let's hope so on this one. I don't think anyone likes the commentary when you say a whole civilization. I think that's disturbing. But once again, the Iranians are on internet shut down, so they're not hearing this.

He's speaking to the IRGC and everyone else. And so I think that the market, I think Lizanne was spot on. The market has digested this incredibly well. normally this type of threat would be existential, but I don't think that will come to pass because the stakes are too high and there's 90 million Iranians that are sitting there literally in the dark. So to me, the dates I look at are April 19th, which will be one month after, if we're still under the 200 day, that's not a great sign. And then don't forget the War Powers Act, the 60-day clock started, what, February 28th.

And so this is not resolved by April 28th, then the Senate gets to vote on whether we need to wind this down or not. So I think those two dates, April 19th and April 28th, are very important dates for me looking at positioning going forward. Mira, how are you thinking about tonight? Same question. It's impossible to say. And I think what we grapple with and what's so difficult as an economist or an investment strategist in thinking through this is our bias is always to say, what is the path of least resistance to create the least economic damage and the least market damage? And you would think, you know, it's a reasonable assumption because elections are won and lost on recessions and inflation. We've seen that over the last several elections. So it's a reasonable base case to come in with. But the reality is, from a politics standpoint, there are so many other social, cultural, political factors at play that may work against what might make the most sense from the economy and markets.

So I agree with Brin. Hope is not an investment strategy. I think that that's where the markets are thinking, well, remember last year when all of a sudden tariffs, were postponed and then eventually came down. Maybe we have this environment in which we call the whole thing off and we're in a better place. I think that's what markets are hoping for. I don't know whether that's a realistic hope or not. Okay. So hope doesn't work at the poker table, right?

You play the hand, you have. And the hand that, as I see it now, yeah, you got some cards that you don't like and it could mess up your ability to win, but you've got enough things in your hand now. The economy's still pretty good. jobs report was pretty good. Earnings expectations are really good. Is that enough to get you through this period and think about what lies ahead once this passes? You may not have a broad market rally across the board anytime soon unless we have this alleviation moment. So the way we're thinking about investing in this environment is you see elevated volatility, you see even more elevated single stock volatility.

So that creates a lot of opportunities for us because there's a couple of things going on. One, the majority of the stocks in the S&P 500 are actually still beating the overall index, about 55%. Two, if you look at sector dispersion, ignore energy. You still have five other sectors that are positive year-to-date, and solidly positive, not just on the line. And almost all of those sectors were up double digits before the war. So you have some opportunities there. And even underneath the surface, across those earning sectors or those sectors that are growing,

you have 65 to 95% of those stocks also beating the index. even among the sectors that are really lagging behind, like financials, one of the worst performers, you have about 40% of the stocks beating the index. So there is a breadth of opportunity for specific areas. And what you also typically see in environments like this is correlations spike among stocks because everything goes down, everything is challenged. You're actually seeing one of the lower correlation readings we've seen since 2022. So majority of stocks beating the index, high sector dispersion, and low correlations among stocks,

that does create some pockets of opportunity across the markets in a number of different areas. And lastly and quickly, if you can, that idea that people are trying to hang on to what they had before this all started and think it's going to work on the other side whenever this ends. Yeah, well, we got that peak last week when the market rallied, right? And you saw Google up four, GE-Bernova up five or six. And so I think you go back to that. I think it was a Tuesday of last week when we saw a big rally. I think that gives you a sneak peek of what will work.

But I do think going into numbers, Scott, companies like Google, like Microsoft, they're going to have great numbers. And so that, to me, going into a weak tape with strong earnings, it's actually a good setup for a surprise for some of these bigger tech names and names in general that have great numbers to actually rally off of these lower prices. All right. We'll talk to you soon. Bryn, thanks, Mirate to you as well. We'll see both of you soon. We're watching shares of Broadcom today. Christina Parts in Revelis tells us what's behind that big.

move. Hi there. Hi, Scott. Well, Broadcom is locking in a massive compute deal with Google and Anthropic, giving Anthropic access to Google's AI chips starting in 2027. Broadcom had already projected about $100 billion in AI revenue just next year, and some many analysts are saying that number is starting to look a little light. Two major fears have been hanging over Broadcom shares over the last little while, and they've been whether Google would eventually build chips entirely in-house and, you know, not use Broadcom anymore, or rather rival media tech was just gaining ground. But a supply agreement through 2031 with Google that just came through with this deal really puts both of those to rest and why you're seeing shares climb

almost 6% higher. So what does this mean, though, for Nvidia? Companies like Anthropic are definitely now mixing matching chips using Google's chips for cheaper everyday AI tasks and Nvidia for the heavy lifting. Invidia's CEO Jensen Wong has said many times that the pie just keeps growing. And he may be right. Anthropic alone just disclosed its revenue run rate has tripled since the end of last year. The real question, though, is how long that argument holds and whether Broadcom's growing roster of locked-in customers eventually starts redirecting dollars that would have otherwise gone to NVIDIA.

Christina, thank you. Christina Parts of Nevelas. We're just getting started here on the bell. Coming up next, the latest in the ongoing drama between Elon Musk and Sam Alvin. My big technology founder, Alex Cantorowitz, says it's just the beginning. He joins us live right here at Post-N. next. We're back more friction between Sam Altman and Elon Musk bubbling up in public. Kate Rooney has more on that for us. Hi there. Nice, Scott. So in a letter that we viewed, Open AI, is now asking

the California and Delaware attorneys general to investigate Tesla CEO Elon Musk for what they describe as improper and anti-competitive behavior. Musk was an early backer and co-founder of OpenAI. The AI company now accuses Musk of trying to undermine Open AI with various attacks. that they outline, including now coordinating efforts with meta-CEO. Mark Zuckerberg. Chris Lehane, who I spoke to you, he's the head of global affairs over at OpenAI, described it to me as possible collusion between Musk and Zuckerberg. He points to text messages that were recently made public between Zuckerberg and Musk, where Musk asks for Zuckerberg's help in trying to acquire Open AI's nonprofit arm.

Open AI also now pointing to reporting in The New Yorker, which outlines Musk's opposition research around Almond. It is the latest drama and back and forth between these two tech titans. Musk sued the company, Opriai, alleging that he was deceived after the startup, which is now a not a startup, massive company, tried to convert to a for-profit jury selection. Scott is going to be beginning in a few weeks. It's kicking off. You knew what you meant.

Kate, thank you. That's Kate Rooney. Now let's bring in big technologies, Alex Cantrowitz. He's also a CNBC contributor. It's always good to talk to you about this. stuff. So what do we make of the fact that this is bubbling up again? Is this Sam Altman trying to tweak them a little bit as, you know, SpaceX is coming to the finish line on going public? Definitely. I mean, the drama never ends between these two. And the way I read it is it's a schoolyard

fight between two, well, they're adults, but they sometimes can get into child mode, you know, form of kids who just can't let it go. And they should do the talking with the product. They should do the talking with the company, but you're right. You now have this SpaceX IPO coming up, and OpenAI's IPO will come up right after that. Meanwhile, Musk is suing OpenAI, claiming that they improperly took his money in their for-profit conversion. Does Altman, in some respects, have reason to feel a little emboldened in all this? Because XAI, as you point out, has fallen behind Open AI, Anthropic and Alphabet, too. Absolutely, he does. And while OpenAI couldn't have started without Elon Musk, his $30-plus million

at the beginning is the reason why Open AI exists today, they could point to what Elon's done in his own investments with XAI, and it hasn't held a candle to what Open AI is doing today. Open AI is generations ahead of XAI, and many watching this industry say that it's Open AI, Anthropic, and Google, and then the rest of the pack. Is that going to stay that way forever? Maybe not, but right now, it doesn't look like Musk has been able to do much at all in his AI fight. The other intriguing, certainly, battle, if you want to call it that, is Altman versus Samaday of Anthropic. Right?

We remember the photo op in India. Everybody raises their arms, and these guys were like the arms were like the third rails. Like, they're not even going to link hands, right? There's a good picture of it. They refused to sort of link hands on that. I feel like I hear more people in and around VC and tech in general, trying to make the point that Anthropics stolen a little bit of thunder from OpenAI. Is that fair? Is that fair? To say that? Yeah, definitely. Open AI is chasing Anthropic

right now. I mean, Anthropic got ahead of this. They built a coding tool, which turned into effectively a personal agent for anybody using it, because you don't have to be technical to use cloud code to get it to do things for you. And Open AI is following that. They've built this Codex app, which is technical, but they're morphing that into a super app, which anybody can use, and that follows what Anthropic is trying to do. So it really is head-to-head right now because you could say previously Open AI had consumer, Anthropic Head Enterprise. But now both use cases are converging into the super app agent-style use case, and it is basically one-v-one right now. But it feels like Anthropics has made bigger strides in the area of courting business customers.

You see the story today that was in the journal. Anthropic in talks to invest $200 million in a new private equity venture continuing its push for business customers. This is how it feels like Anthropic has set itself a bit apart. Going after, I would assume, higher dollar and higher margin customers. So two different philosophies between these two companies in terms of how they go after enterprise companies. Anthropic always said, let's build for enterprise use cases, because if we are able to do that well, these are going to be the hardest use cases, we'll make the models better, and therefore we're going to win. And opening I said, let's build chat chip EBT once it started taking off into this big consumer app.

And then once it becomes popularized in a verb like Google is, then the people who use chat cheap T will bring it into their enterprises. And right now, both are building robust enterprise businesses. But I think when you, if you look at it objectively, there's no way to say anything but Anthropic has a lead here. Is it matter who goes public first? I mean, I feel like it's almost like you could kind of infer that it's imperative almost for open to go to go first. because of some of these questions that hang over that company? I think it does matter who's going to go first. I mean, you think about the pool of money that's available.

They're going to be fighting over similar pools of money. And then, you know, we'll see what the narrative is, because the market is going to definitely believe that this AI technology can take off. But if the S-1 comes out and it's a lot of smoke and there's not much, you know, there's not a path to profitability there. That's going to be a problem. I appreciate you, as always. To be continued, we know that because this drama is not ending anytime soon.

Alex, thanks. Thank you. That's Alex Cantewitt. Stocks near session lows. We head towards the close. We're off session lows, actually. The 8 p.m. deadline is looming. Coming up, Professor Jeremy Siegel, he games out various market scenarios next.

We have news developing out of Washington. Megan Casella joins us now with the very latest. What do we know? Scott, the Pakistani prime minister has posted on social media calling on President Trump to delay his deadline from tonight for an additional two weeks while calling for a two-week ceasefire. he says to allow diplomatic negotiations to continue. So in this post, the Pakistani prime minister says diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly, and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in the near

future. He goes on to earnestly request, he says, President Trump to extend his deadline for two weeks. He says, Pakistan, in all sincerity, is requesting Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks, he says, as a goodwill gesture. And then finally, urges all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region. Scott, no immediate response from the White House on that that was just posted a few minutes ago. I just reached out to them to see if they have any response. We'll have to see if this moves the needle for either side. One would have to believe, though, Megan, that

this idea likely would have already been relayed behind the scenes, that we're all not learning about this, President Trump included, for the very first time through social media. Obviously, that's just a guess, I suppose. But on the idea, too, that theoretically you could suggest that maybe this would give the president somewhat of an out, that it's a third party trying to mediate this rather than the president being perceived as somebody who has backed off his threat on his own. What would you say to that? I think that's absolutely right.

The president is sort of between Iraq and a hard place on this, making increasingly escalatory threats while also not wanting to be labeled for backing off again. So does he want to move forward with complete obliteration, as he said, or does he want to be ridiculed for backing off? This does give him sort of a middle path. We know throughout all of this, Scott, that these third-party mediators seem to be the ones that have been making the most progress. There have been mixed and conflicting reports, even throughout the day today, but also for the past couple of weeks. as to whether and to what extent the U.S. officials and Iranian officials have been in actual direct contact.

But we know these mediating parties seem to have been continuing even when there's been conflicts between the U.S. and Iran. Now we have the Pakistani Prime Minister. Pakistan's been one of the primary mediating countries leading those sort of intermediating negotiations, saying, how about we push everything for two weeks? Now the president could look at that proposal, which I agree with you probably is not the first time he's hearing it, but he could point to that and say, we're seeing enough for that. We're seeing enough to allow me to delay things by another two weeks. Part of this proposal, too, to reopen the straight of war moves in the interim period as well.

Megan, thank you. Megan Casella at the White House, that last point important, because as you take a look at, if we can, to intraday, both WTI and Brent, both have improved, albeit slightly. There you see, just a move there at the very end of the intraday, a move off of the highs of the day. Let's call it that in crude. as you see here. Brent is now negative. Let's now bring in the professor at the Wharton School. He's Jeremy Siegel, also Wisdomy's Chief Economist. Welcome back. It's nice to have you.

Good to see you, Scott. This is everything, obviously, right? Yeah, I mean, the war is it. And that news about the Pakistani deal came out about 20 minutes ago. We had a 250-point rally on the Dow. I see four scenarios. I'll give them to you from best to worst. The best, of course, is in the next three and a half hours, Trump tweets, we got a deal. You got a thousand-point rally, and by the way, if it's a good deal, you're going to get all-time highs in this market through spring and summer. Second scenario is just what we've heard. It comes 8 o'clock. We got good negotiations, promisingly enough that I'm going to delay.

Then you get what's called the relief rally. And, in fact, we could have just had a little bit of that now. A couple hundred points, and, you know, Hope Springs Eternal, that negotiations are going well. Third and fourth, the bombing starts, and you're going to see a big drop, I think, on that bombing, if it does start at eight. But the response of Iran is going to be very important about where the market goes.

If it's a weak military response that anti-bullism, missiles are able to take down most of them and it is not very, you know, effective at hitting its targets, I think the market's going to creep back pretty strongly because that really shows that the U.S. has the upper hand. If, and this is the worst scenario, if they have rockets that does damage significantly the oil infrastructure of the U.A. and, you know, other Arab countries, then we got a lot more. downside in the market. So I don't think anybody.

It can be anywhere in between. And, you know, all those scenarios, you're probably going to be playing out in the next few hours. Yeah. I mean, I don't think anybody would disagree with your sort of worst case scenarios should they come to pass. The hope, of course, is that they won't. Are you trying to allow yourself more and more to hang on to the idea?

One may be a stretch, right? a firm deal and then we race to these new highs immediately, but at least to point number two, a deal to delay or do whatever to avoid the worst-case scenarios that you laid forward, and that in and of itself is going to be good enough for the time being. Yeah, I mean, you know, you could call a taco. It's not really a chicken. If there really is progress, I mean, it did seem that there was some slight alteration of Iran's original demands

and Pakistan saying open that to being a neutral position in between saying to Iran that was hopeful. I mean it was 250 points hopeful for the market. So, you know, if that seems to be moving the chess pieces forward, you're going to get a relief rally and see, you know, what happens. So, I mean, right now, you know, if I were to ask what is the most likely, it's probably that

that second scenario to play out, but we have to be prepared for anything. I mean, this is a very important geopolitical moment coming up. Now, in any case, even in the, let's talk about in the best case scenario, we do get a deal. Oh, you know, oil's not going to come down all the way back to 60 right away. There was damage. There is going to be still some risk premium. in the market, but I think more importantly is we're going to have to build up our defense forces. I mean, I think Trump already has a $200 billion request in.

It's going to go higher. Fiscal expansion. I don't think we're going to see the 10-year drop below four. And in that case, I don't see the Fed dropping rates. As you know, I was quite forward in advertising. that early on, but given these developments, and also given developments where I see credit, bank credit increasing and inflationary pressures increasing, I think we have to put on hold any cuts. I think it's going to be neutral for a while at best. If we get back from the brink, so to speak,

then we can get back to focusing on earnings and the economy. And then, oh, by the way, the fact that multiples have come in, too, which now may. the market more attractive at a time where earnings expectations have held up, right? Yeah. But what has to remember that the earnings estimates are not lowered, they're the last to be lowered because of macro events. The estimates are particular analysts that just look at the micro until a CEO says, listen, the consumer is slowing down because of higher oil or gasoline,

prices. So I'm lowering my guines. That's when they're going to be lowering their numbers, and not until then. So, yeah, I do think there's been multiple compression, and certainly, I mean, some of the Mag 7 stocks like Nvidia is quite remarkable down to almost market levels. I don't think it's as much as the raw data suggests. How about positioning when we come out of this? Because I think people are confused about what's going to work and whether what was working can still or if the dynamic of the market itself has now changed, Professor. Well, I think, you know, one of the things, and it's something I've always been said, you know, bonds are great hedges against certain types of risks. You know,

great financial crisis, certain types of geopolitical risks. It was a great hedge during the pandemic, but it is a terrible hedge against anything that's an inflationary risk. And so, you know, you know, the 6040 portfolio, and my feeling is way too weighted towards bonds in that situation, you know, especially you're getting, what, 4, 4 and a quarter percent with inflation, you know, in that 3 percent region. You know, I think this is more and more reason that 70, 30 should become the benchmark, not 60, 40. Of course, there'll be people would argue with me, but once you have inflationary shock potential, that really low. where's the attractiveness of fixed income, and certainly as a long-term hold?

Well, I mean, 60-40 was off to a horrible start as, you know, stocks had rolled over and bond yields were rising. Now you started a controversy, though, 6040, 70-30, and that's to be continued. So we will address that at another time. Professor, I always appreciate your insight. Thanks so much, Jeremy Siegel. Next, we track the biggest movers into the close. The bell. Coming right back. All right. We have about 10 minutes or so a little bit more than that. until the closing bell. Markets been jumping around a bit as well.

I just want to give you a headline to let you know where we are and why we're here at the moment with the Dow now down 122 points that Reuters is reporting, according to a senior Iranian official that Tehran has, it says it's positively reviewing Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire. Also saw some reporting that the press secretary at the White's. White House, Caroline Levitt, says that the president has been made aware of the offer as well, which we showed you from Pakistan's prime minister, and a response will come. So we'll continue to follow that, but it's obviously had a bit of an impact, as you see here on the markets, as we're

way, way off the lowest points of the session. S&P 500 is back above 6,600. Let's show crude oil, too, because it very well plays into this story. You can show WTI if you want on an intradate basis. which we continue to watch as well. So now, again, WTI is now negative as Brent had moved in the same direction within the last 10 to 15 minutes or so. We'll step away for a moment. We'll do the market zone next.

All right, we'll go back to the White House and our Megan Kassela, who has the very latest for us. A response from the White House, Megan? Scott, that's right. This is a response to that proposal from the Pakistani prime minister for a two-week ceasefire,

a two-week delay in the president's deadline from 8 p.m. tonight, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt telling me, quote, the president has been made aware of the proposal and the response will come. So more to watch on that. And then separately, Scott also just in the last couple of moments, a senior Iranian official told Reuters also reacting to this proposal that Tehran is positively reviewing Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire. Now, Scott, remember, there were three parts to this proposal. It was the delay in the deadline for two weeks, a temporary ceasefire everywhere for two weeks, and also reopening the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. So both sides, possibly now looking and possibly having

some positive reaction to this proposal, more to come. All right. Extremely fluid, as we know. Megan, thank you so much. It's our own Megan Casella there on the North Bon of the White House. We're in the market zone. Mike Santoli is going to give us his instant reaction here. Rick Santelli is going to join us live from Cebo on Big Oil Options Activity today. And we'll chat as well with Kevin Simpson, get his thoughts on the market too. Michael, let's begin with you. The market's on edge. Obviously, it's going to move on anything that is perceived to be either positive or negative,

and we're witnessing that in real time. Right. So intraday, we're just sort of turning the dial from de-escalation to re-escalation. Based on incoming info, it's pretty narrow range altogether. I don't necessarily view any of these thresholds that were crossing and criss-crossing is super consequential, except I do think it's relevant that the indexes are trying to make use of this cushion that was built up versus last week's lows and perhaps be a little more selective in terms of what's working and what's not,

almost treat it as, you know, let's figure out if in fact we want to own some things or not on the other side of all this. I'm not sure of two weeks if it's just a delay and we have more suspense built up over that time is necessarily a true escape from this trading pattern, mostly because I don't think getting more oil out of the Gulf, but not necessarily having new supply, you know, kind of loaded in is necessarily going to be magic for much lower oil prices. But obviously, it's constructive if it means that there's progress being made. Yeah. Michael, we'll see it at the very top of the hour. Just give me real quick an idea of what you have coming up. From a different angle, our semi is a place to actually hide here. And we got Dan Niles to talk about that. All right, good stuff. We'll see you then.

That's Mike Santoli. Let's go to Rick Santelli live from the Cibo, Global Marks, Chicago. Hi, Rick. Hi, Judge. Yeah, I'll tell you what, today's a big day, obviously, and many are watching oil to get a cue for what's going on. And to that end, I picked the stock that should reflect what's going on in the energy complex, ExxonMobil. Right now, the price is around 163 in change. So, let's look at 170 calls, 160 puts. If you're bullish and you think it's going higher, crude oil prices are going to 125, probably want to call. Right now, the price at about $1.50, times a hundred you're paying about $150, which means your break-even price right around $171.50.

But if you think it's going lower, a 160 put, right now it's going for about $2.60. $2.60 is your cost. That's 100 shares, of course, and that will come out to a break-even of 157.40. Go either way. Do both. They call that a strangle. But in the end, pick your direction, because most likely you're going to see follow through one way or the other. Scott, back to you. All right, great insight. Rick, appreciate you. Thanks. That's Rick Santelli to Sibbo. All right, Kevin Simpson, inside the mind of a trader, a portfolio manager, all the above, because you wear all the hats. Just give me inside your psyche. It feels like what right now? Yeah, well, I think you and Lizanne, the conversation you had at the start of the show really nailed it.

We absolutely don't know what's going to happen this afternoon. We don't know what's going to happen this evening. Market chatter all day was that we should expect to tweet, a life preserve. some kind of negotiating tactic before the market close. Maybe the news out of Pakistan was just what the market ordered or maybe what the doctor ordered. But I think the difference here, Scott, for everyone watching, is the difference between active and inactive management. If you're passive, if you're in an index fund, there's nothing you can really do. I mean, you're going to go with the ebb and the flow of the market.

There's no positioning that you can really take in anticipation of whatever the outcome may be. For us, we've been trimming some strength. We've been adding to some weakness. We've been holding dry powder. So whatever happens tomorrow, if oil rips will continue to trim energy, if the broader market rips and the market's accelerating, that would be wonderful news and we'll be able to write calls over top of the portfolio. But for us, it's really about positioning, preparation.

And for traders, it matters a great deal what happens to the new cycle this evening. For longer-term investors, I think it's all about how you take advantage of these moves over the next two days. If we, in fact, do get agreement on this proposal from the Pakistanis, are you a buyer of this market in that scenario immediately? No, I think if that's the case, we'd be writing calls across the portfolio. I would imagine there'd be some kind of relief rally tomorrow, Scott. If anything, energy would pull back, and if you're not allocated there, you could certainly pick up some energy names. But I think tomorrow you're a hedger or a trimmer, maybe not a buyer on good news.

Why so? I have 10% cash in the portfolio so that if you get bad news and the broad market goes down, that's when I want to be buying. But I think on good news, you're built in a lot of it. Like, if you look at the reaction to the market today, I'm surprised about how tepid it's been responding. And I think a lot of that must be in large part that we're expecting, if nothing else, at least a kick of the can. And maybe a two-week kick of the can would be really what the market was kind of thinking. in its daily preparation. But other than that, I would have expected there to be a much more severe reaction with today's tape,

and we just didn't see it. Well, if I could say that, well, a kick of the can in your words, whether it's two weeks or whatever, this is ultimately more than likely going to lead to some kind of a deal. If not, obviously, all bets are off. But if I think that that's going to happen, why wouldn't I just get back as I spoke about with Lizanne that you watched? earnings, the economy, and compression in multiples that makes stocks even more attractive than they were before. Yeah, I mean, if you're going to be a buyer, I think you want to follow the underperformers. So you can look at software, you can look at technology.

I definitely think that the earnings are going to be really good this quarter. The problem is if we have this continuation of higher energy, that's going to reflect in earnings for next quarter. Maybe we see some of that in the guidance right now. They're buying opportunities, and they're re-added to power output. Kev, we'll talk to you soon. Thank you. That's Kevin Simpson joining us. Interesting, bell's going to ring here, and we are going to attend the S&P 500 and the NASDA. Dow's got a little bit of work to do, but it's a different picture. The deadline is looming large. I'll see tomorrow.