Closing Bell - Closing Bell: 5/23/25

Episode Date: May 23, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

All right. Court, thank you very much. Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange today. This Maker Breakout begins with a new Trump tariff threat driving stocks lower today. But we are way off the lows. We're going to ask our experts over this final stretch whether escalating trade tensions once again will derail the run towards new highs.

In the meantime, let's show you exactly where we stand on this Friday. Scoreboard looks like that. Was not a pretty picture right out of the gates today. We were down big early and we tried to fight our way back throughout much of the session, doing a pretty good job. We'll see if in fact we can maybe close positive today. Apple got some work to do. It's lower for the eighth day in a row after the president threatening the company

with a 25 percent tariff on iPhones made outside the U.S. It is the stock's longest losing streak in more than two years. Elsewhere the VIX popping past 21 today. Interest rates at the long end which have given the market such a headache lately, especially earlier in the week. Well, they've come down a bit and we're watching that closely as well. It takes us to our talk of the tape today. Rising trade risk once again and where stocks could be heading from here. Let's begin with late breaking news out of the White House at this hour. Our own Eamon Javeris,

just out of the Oval Office in fact, and asked the president a question about Apple. Got an answer that was very interesting. What can you tell us, Eon? Yes, Scott, that's right. The president continuing to express frustration in the Oval Office with both the EU and with Apple. And let's start with Apple. The president was asked by another reporter in that session in the Oval Office a short time ago how he has the authority to issue a tariff as it suggested in his early morning social media post against just one company. That is against just Apple. Here's how he answered it. It would be more, it would be also Samsung and anybody that makes that product,

otherwise it wouldn't be fair. So anybody that makes that product, and that'll start on, I guess, the end of June, it'll come out. And Scott, I also had the chance to talk to the president briefly, and I asked him about the EU and I asked him about Apple computer as well. The president told me that he's confident that in the end Apple will be able to make

an iPhone that is competitive economically in the United States. I asked him what gives you that confidence? He said, well, with computers and technology, they can produce that product in the United States. I asked him what gives you that confidence. He said, well, with computers and technology, they can produce that product in the United States at an economically competitive price. Now, a lot of analysts that you've talked to and I've talked to might disagree with that, but the reality is that's what the President

of the United States believes and that's what's driving a lot of this. And on the EU, the President simply said he was frustrated with the progress that they have made, doesn't like the fact on the EU the president simply said he was frustrated with the progress that they have made doesn't like the fact that the EU restricts American vehicles in his view into Europe and expressed frustration with the slow pace of negotiations with the EU so not clear whether there's going to be a breakthrough there we know there was a call at 11 a.m. this morning between both sides we haven't gotten any read out of that call to understand whether any progress was made at all Scott. So the president you know continuing to vent some

frustration here in the Oval Office. Yeah and we're watching Apple shares. Amon thank you very much for that both the update on the EU and that company. We can take a look at the stock here which looks like it's trying to head back to the lows of the session about three percent. On that note let's bring in Steve Kovac for more on what this does mean for Apple longest losing streak now in a while eight straight days we're looking at a couple years since we've done this what do you make of this. I don't know if you want to call it a new development but new commentary if nothing else from the president. It is a new development Scott at least that's how I'm doing it because we got some timing

on this so we earlier this morning he didn't give a timing for these tariffs would hit the smartphone industry now he's saying it's all smartphones that's the other bit of it too. But it's going to be at the end of June which coincides with the end of the June quarter for Apple going into its fiscal fourth quarter and we already know what the cost of these tariffs or what Apple estimates the cost of these tariffs or what Apple estimates

the cost of these tariffs are going to be for the June quarter because it front loaded all of those iPhones ahead of time. Nine hundred million dollars. You're looking at it right on your screen. This just complicates that picture. And again, like Eamon said, the president thinking, OK, everything he used the word computerized the president did about building iPhones. That is not how iPhones are built. Sure, there is some automation in there,

but as we talked about on your show earlier today, it's so much of it is the humans that are out there making the iPhones, and we just don't have that labor force. So I don't know where Trump thinks that is gonna be coming from, but that labor is coming from, but it is not just possible right now. It's just kind of fantastical to even imply that. And look, we've even seen

Apple kind of doubling down on its bet in India. We heard overnight from the Financial Times, one and a half billion dollars being spent with Foxconn to expand production in India, again, for the US iPhones. And then what Apple's telling investors, which is our ultimate goal is to ramp up production of the iPhone in India for phones sold in the United States because of that lower tariff rate. And then for everything else, Vietnam, that's stuff like MacBooks and AirPods and watches and the like, while China will supply the rest of the world. Still going to rely on China for iPhones sold in the US for some time, but that is the direction they're going in and no indication

whatsoever that there's going to be a US made iPhone. So even though Apple may have dodged those tariffs and got that exemption in mid April or so after liberation day, here we go again, 25% on those devices made in India. So we'll see if this is just some kind of negotiating tactic or if this is another taco trade from President Trump. Trump always chickens out is what people are calling it. We'll see if he backs off. Wow.

I was going to ask you, is this just gamesmanship? Could be. From the negotiator or has the relationship between the president and Tim Cook, Tim Cook deteriorated in any way that has led to this escalating dialogue or at least commentary from the president. Remember when the president was in the Middle East, he took a shot at Tim Cook for not being there. What has Tim Cook done aside from not saying that he's going to build all of the iPhones in the US

to get on this side of the president's nerves? To get on this side of the president's nerves, that's it. That seems to be what's sticking with Trump is the idea that on that investor call just a couple of weeks ago, telling the world that we're gonna be producing in India, not in the United States. And that's what's sticking with Trump. Trump does like to talk about that $500 billion investment

that Apple committed to over the course of his presidency, but that's not to build iPhones. The only thing they've actually committed to build in the United States are some servers for artificial intelligence, the cloud product that they have for artificial intelligence. That's gonna be done in Houston, Texas.

The other billions of dollars that they're talking about, it's unclear exactly where that's going to be invested in, but we know where it's not going to be invested in, and that's building iPhones, Scott. So, I mean, you want to talk about the relationship between these two men. We know what happens in the run-up to Inauguration Day, Tim Cook donating $1 million of his personal money to the Inauguration Fund, you know, the dinners at Mar-a-Lago, showing up at the Inauguration, all of that stuff has been just not enough for the president

and we see him again and again and again over the last two weeks just calling Tim Cook out, saying he has a problem with Tim Cook and now this huge tariff threat that is about a month away. All right, Steve, thank you for that. That's Steve Kovac. We continue to follow it because Apple is such a big stock falling below $3 trillion in market cap yet again today.

Many of you watching this program own it in one form or another and care about where it goes from here. So for more on that, let's bring in big technologies, Alex Kantrowitz. he is CNBC contributors. Good to have you with us today too, as we have this new development late day. So here we go again, what do you make of it?

Well, it's really bad for Apple. I mean, if these tariffs go into action, then what you're gonna see is Apple's either gonna have to do a price increase on the phones, or it's gonna have to maybe roll back some of that buyback it planned or try to rethink its dividend. Those are the three areas that you end up looking to try to get the relief here. And if it's an increase in price on the phone, we know that the services part of Apple's business is what's driving this stock.

And services to grow needs users, which means that Apple needs those customers. And that's why Apple has been reticent to raise the price on these phones, because it knows the thing that's driving its valuation isn't necessarily iPhone sales, although those are important, it is the fact that people are using it services and that area is growing and investors are looking at that and adding a multiple or applying a multiple to it.

So if you see a big increase, I don't think Apple is gonna bring the phone back here, but that tariff could end up increasing the price of the phone. That is gonna make the company struggle in its attempt to grow that services business and we could end up seeing some serious negative consequences because of it.

You make a great point. A point that was discussed today on the halftime report as to whether the stock was expensive or not. It's much more expensive than it was 10 years ago based on valuation, right? Even with this mountain of cash that they are sitting on. It's about 27 times. What you're telling our viewers is the reason that some are willing to pay up to a higher multiple is because all of these expectations around the services business, which is a Fortune

50 company all by itself. Exactly. And so this is a threat to it. And by the way, it's not the only threat. We also know that the money that's coming in from Google to be the default search on iPhones, that's at risk because of regulatory action. We also know that the fees that Apple collects in the app store, those are at risk because now there's a chance that Apple might not be able to prevent app developers from telling people that they can go elsewhere and get the subscription cheaper, right? There's been policies within the App Store that that has been impossible and there's other regulatory effects that might take

impact. So when you think about this service business, which again has been driving the stock, you now have the threat from tariffs, the threat from regulation, and the potential loss of that Google money. And now Apple will probably be able to get past a number of these issues. But to expect them to become entirely unscathed after such a situation is a lot. So again, still up for debate. We're going to see what's going to happen. But it's a lot of challenges at once for this company, not to mention the challenges that it faces with AI. Lastly, what about the relationship here

between Tim Cook and President Trump? We had made the point over and over again at the beginning of Trump 2.0 and his new administration, how deftly Tim Cook had managed that relationship. He had managed to stay out of the crosshairs at a time where many of his contemporaries within big tech had not. And here we find that Tim Cook is back in the crosshairs

and in a very big and recurring way. What do you make of that? Absolutely. Well, look, Apple, again, nearly a $3 trillion company. It probably was when they were talking. Now it's just below. And the amount of jobs that you would expect from a $3 trillion company if you're kind of thinking old school and not in a technology way is massive.

But a lot of the jobs that are involved in manufacturing these phones are elsewhere. So it seems like Tim Cook is going to have to bring some jobs to the United States one way or another to be able to appease Trump. Now I'm just speculating here, but I imagine that when Tim Cook met with Trump, Trump said, we need you to bring jobs to the US. Tim Cook probably said, OK, yeah, we're going to do that, Mr. President. And then he sees that the manufacturing has moved to India instead of China. And that's led to this blow up.

So I would imagine that for this to blow over, Tim Cook is going to have to basically make a concession to Trump. Maybe it's just a ceremonial two or three thousand jobs that come in for manufacturing, or they put the final stamp on the package and they say, okay, this has been assembled or completed in the United States, but he's gonna have to do something because I think you're right. There's got to be something wrong with this relationship for Trump to not just now, but repeatedly hit Cook. He hit him in Saudi Arabia. He's again talking about tariffs.

It doesn't seem like things are as hunky-dory as they were in the first term. And if you are an Apple shareholder or if you're worried about the future of Apple, Tim Cook's ability to be this epic diplomat has been one of the things that has given you faith in the company's ability to sustain its success and now we have some questions. So I think Cook will probably be able to find some way to ride it out. There are concessions to give but ultimately this is not exactly the position you want to be in if you're him or if you're a shareholder. The chart doesn't lie down 22% just about year to date.

Alex, appreciate you. Thank you. We'll see you soon. Alex Kantrowitz. Now let's bring in JP Morgan's Gabriella Santos, Robin Hood's Stephanie Gild, and CNBC contributor Requisite Capital's Bryn Talkie. It's great to have everybody here. Bryn, I'll go to you first.

You're the shareholder here. What do you think about all this? I think one thing that Steve missed that I think is really important, I think Steve hit on so many great points, is also you have the Johnny Ive-Sam Altman agreement, which to me is a huge blow because obviously Johnny Ive was so important in making the iPhone, the shuffle, et cetera. And so we'll see what happens with that. And so I think that where Tim Cook is a master statesman diplomat, if you go back to 2018, remember

Foxconn to acquiesce Trump, said we're going to build this big LG manufacturing plant in Wisconsin. Great, you get a pass. Guess what? It never broke ground. And I think Microsoft just bought the property recently. And so I do think that the statesman diplomat that Tim Cook is, they could easily make promises, but the reality is how our political system work. We're going to have an election and

we're going to have election in three and a half years. And so they can make these promises like Foxconn and a lot of these companies will see if they actually deliver. To me, the challenge with Apple is Siri is slightly better than Alexa, which is not a compliment at all. And it just continues to see, feel that they are behind in the race. And we'll see what products come out of OpenAI. I'm not sure, but I do think that Tim Cook is really in a difficult position. Cuz you actually look globally, the one country that has incredibly high tariffs is actually India.

It's about 12%. And so if he goes to India, why Besson and the crew are negotiating with India, it doesn't help their cause. And I think Trump's pointed that out. We don't want you to go to India because they're trying to negotiate with India, which is a closed economy and has very high tariffs. This stock have a valuation problem, Stephanie? I think maybe it does.

Throughout this whole process, a couple of things I would point out. One is that I don't actually think Trump is that mad at Tim Cook, because I think he could be way meaner. And he can say meaner things. I think he's just trying to get more investment. But from a valuation perspective,

the company is down 24% year to date, maybe even more after today. I didn't look at it since this morning. And you have 50% of the revenues are makeup phones. 36% comes from the US. 2 thirds of it means that the revenue comes from outside the US. So I think he's also a global player

and has to respect the fact that the US isn't the only game in town for him. Good way to get to you, Gabriella. Here we go again, where we had a bit of a respite of what felt like a couple of weeks. We weren't obsessing about tariffs.

We were fixated more on the bond market and the tax bill. But here we are once again talking about the prospects of tariffs on EU tariffs on Apple. Do we need to put this back into the mix, stir it up a little bit,

and see what comes out for the market? I think we'll still say the T-word, tariffs, for a while. President Trump does like tariffs as a tool for a variety of objectives. I would still say that we're likely past the worst of the tariff storm, but it's still cloudy with a chance of showers. What I mean by that is we're still past that peak rate

we got to on April 8th of about 30%. We're still kind of settling in here at 14% on a macro level. It's also still much less widespread. It's now less of a hammer, more of a scalpel impact, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact, especially on specific companies. It's not just in the auto sector it can also be in

cyclical tech hardware. For example which can continue underperforming soft tech. Which is much more of a secular AI kind of a theme- the last thing I thought was really interesting that even Javers was mentioning about. The

president's comment was this idea of companies having still a lot of technology. To make manufacturing cost effective. And I think to the extent that for us consumers, companies bring manufacturing here to the U S it's just going to turbocharge automation and automation plus AI as a way to bring some incremental jobs in the manufacturing sector here,

but also maintain spectacular margins over time. When we were standing at the edge of the cliff and the president walked his tariffs back against China, it almost felt by the market reaction that it was a formality that the S&P was going to take out its old high. We got to within 4%. Most people that I asked that question to said, yeah, I think we're gonna do that. Now we backed off. Does this wreck that story? A hundred percent conviction we will at some point. We always do. We digest things. I just don't think it's a foregone conclusion this quarter for example. Because two things. Number one it's still cloudy with a chance of showers. We just still need to understand

the impact of existing policy on actual earnings growth for the market overall for specific companies. But most importantly, number two, how quickly we came back and how quickly valuations got back to 21 times on consensus earnings that everyone knows is still quite stale and still needs to come down. So negative earnings revisions still suggest some choppiness here and it might take a while to get back to all time highs, but we will get there.

How would you address that? I actually think we've seen a good amount of earnings revisions already, and if the expectation is that GDP is gonna come down by 1%, which is what the Yale Budget Lab says, then we probably only have maybe a percent or two more of earnings estimate revisions growth, so now we're at like 9.6 percent,

I think, on the S&P. And when you look actually across the market cap spectrum, mid-caps actually look pretty attractive right now. And expectations are only for 5 percent earnings growth, which is very, very rational. And valuations, if you assume that, are 14 and a half times. The long-term valuation for mid-cap is 19 is 19 times Like I actually think there's still opportunity in the market It just maybe isn't gonna be in some of these large, you know mag seven names and I've said before I think there's more to life Than the mag seven and I also think we're an environment and I like your shower analogy But I also think that we're an environment where you just you know when you're driving and you want to turn down the volume to see Better that's why I think we sometimes have to turn down

the volume of all this stuff because I think a lot of it is negotiating. Well, I feel like the market is turning, to your point, the volume down today and realizing that maybe this is not actually gonna take place. It's more bluster and bark than actual bite and that the market is voting here. Now, Apple aside, because the stock's down 3%.

But if you take what's happening, what he said with the EU, what the president did, and the initial market reaction, the price action today would tell you that, well, believe it when we see it. I mean, I think he will get more, something out. I think he's just trying to get a little bit more. And that's what I think his tactic has been.

And once he gets a little bit more, then he'll say he can declare victory. And I think that becomes important for him. And you have to invest knowing that one day it's going to be down, the next day it's going to be up and be balanced about it. And maybe just a counterpoint. I don't think we're going back to 30%, 157% on China. We seem to have understood there's a certain limit there, but I also don't think we're

going to zero, no matter how great the negotiations are, because they're still the objective to reshore manufacturing, raise revenues, the president loves tariffs, and even with the UK, amazing trade deal, an easy one, they barely have a deficit with us, and yet the 10% universal tariff stayed in place. No, sure. It's been fixated on tariffs for 40 years. But I think it only affects certain sectors, other ones. I don't think it's like, that means the whole market deserves the same valuation.

No, absolutely not. But the big ones do, including technology, which have a lot of international revenues as well as a very, very global supply chain. But absolutely not everything. You have things like financials, which are services much more domestically oriented, have the deregulation tailwind. Or if you have something super defensive like utilities, although they're already super expensive.

I just think the combination of normal downward earnings revisions this year on any given year plus evaluation at 21 times and uncertainty about the path might just to us mean that a neutral on equity still makes sense. And then eventually second half of the year, we can be in a much better place. But I think on a single stock basis like it creates a lot of opportunity. Exactly. Like there's a name like ResMed it actually is not subject to the tariffs and people are still needing you know have sleep app no problems. You have a name like Gaff right it's up 40% in the last month. Reports next week doesn't it? And they've been and I think the company itself is trying to control what they can control and improve

their with or without tariffs, right? You have Home Depot, which actually is not that subject to tariffs. So I think this volatility creates a lot of opportunities. Absolutely, and I think we're actually saying the exact same thing. For us as macro allocators, as multi-asset, to us the focus is the starting point, the expectations, the over-concent the expectations over concentration in US equities and the next marginal dollar looking elsewhere and having more of a neutral occasion and then of course the US will come back and within the market there's still plenty of opportunities.

Bryn last word to you wrap it up for us with your what's your best idea then but your best area to look right now if not everything is going to be caught in the tariff whirlpool What what what can stay above water? Innovation there's so many I mean the cues are above the 200-day Robin Hood Nvidia is back. I mean the only stocks below the 200 day on the tech side are Google and Apple I think Stephanie was spot-on there's so many great companies But I will say us will remain exceptional because we have this thing no other no other country Especially in the you has, is we have Silicon Valley and we have the tech sector.

And you continue to see so many companies, I'll say like a Robin Hood, a Palantir. Look what's happened with Ion Q. So much excitement going on that's really bucking the trend of the overall S&P. So I do think this is a good stock picker's market. And obviously, I'm talking about my book. It's a great year to sell calls against names as well because the vol is so high and you get a ton of call premium. Yeah, we saw that move an eye on Q since you talked about it a couple of days ago.

I see you. That was great. We discussed, we debated, and that's everything that we like to do. Ladies, thanks. We'll see you soon. Gabriella, Stephanie and Brynn. We're just getting started here. Coming up next, investors anxiously awaiting results from Nvidia mid-week. Next week, we'll discuss what is at stake for big tech

and for this market at large. Prezzo Capital's Lo Tony, he's in the house. He'll join us here post nine after the break. OK, welcome back, Apple, not the only mega cap we are focused on today. NVIDIA is another big story because those earnings are looming large next week. Joining us now at Post 9 is Plexo Capital's Low Tony. Glad you made the trip east and you're here with us. Thank you. So what's riding do you think now on Nvidia, just given the conversation around big tech and we're obviously fixated on Apple today

because it's a big story and I'll ask you about it in a minute. Okay. But this one first. Yeah, sure. What we saw this week was a lot of announcements by the AI companies. You could almost call this AI week, right? So you had Google I.O., which is probably now just Google AI. You had Microsoft, you had Anthropic, you had OpenAI. And so I think what we're seeing is, we're seeing a little bit of a split in the stack now. More like a barbell, I might wanna call it,

where you have the companies like Nvidia that are sitting at the infrastructure layer. and then above that are the large language models like Anthropic and OpenAI. And then on top of that are all the vertical AI, the services, the agents, all of the things that either the enterprise or consumers are using as end users. And I believe what's happening, speaking to Nvidia,

is that we're seeing a lot of value created on that infrastructure layer, right? The people that control the chips to be able to provide the compute power for the LLMs. And then on top of the LLMs are people building really nice models that are very interesting to be able to take advantage of that power that is provided by the LLM.

So we're kind of seeing a little bit of a barbell effect and I think a little bit of a commoditization of the LLMs. I think what's ended up happening is they are almost becoming a utility of sorts. If you think back to the early days of the internet, the internet providers initially were able to have a lot of value that accrued to them from the enterprise value that was generated

by the internet, but ultimately, providing internet service itself became somewhat of a utility, and then the value accrued to the folks that were creating the interesting apps, either on your computer or on your phone. Okay, there are a number of things I wanna ask you. Let's go right through the major issues,

really, of the week and of the times in tech. Besides Nvidia, obviously, looming large. the major issues really of the week and of the times in tech, besides Nvidia obviously looming large. Trump relationship risk for these CEOs. Front and center, obviously today and in recent days with Tim Cook. I bring it up because when you talk about Nvidia, you know, Jensen Wong, he goes to the Middle East, he shows his face out there, the president knows that, a lot of the other tech heavyweights were out there,

Tim Cook was not. What kind of relationship risk do you think really does exist with these names? I don't know how much I would push down the risk spectrum in terms of having those relationships. I think what we're seeing is that the realization, we've entered a new world where I think policy, government relations have been important for some time, but it was more around making sure

that the regulation was going to be open enough for companies to be able to innovate. I think now what we're seeing is policy leading to deals. And so I think that's a very interesting area and I think that's why you see so many people spending time down in West Palm Beach or in Washington, DC. Now, there are some good things around this. Like if you look at what's happening with AI and the legislation that was pulled back

from the past administration, I think overall for tech, that is a good thing for innovation and I think we'll have to wait and see how these other things play out. Okay, Google, stock has rallied back pretty nicely since the Eddie Q sell off. You know what I'm alluding to because we talked about it a lot.

Eddie Q's in a courtroom, he says, well, you know, search on the browser has fallen for the first time ever. Google shares go down, everybody says, oh my gosh, this is an existential threat. Well, we've been worried about with the LLMs eating into the search of Google. Stock, as I said, has rallied back nicely. Was that overplayed? Not in the short term.

Not in the short, in the short term, I think, you know, it, it, I should say not in the long term. In the short term, I think, you know, it, I should say not in the long term. In the short term, I think yes. But I think when you start to plot out the trends of search terms on Google, it's reflected in some of the announcements they made this week around incorporating more of the Gemini 2.5 with their search

to create a more chat-like experience, to replicate not only what someone can do on OpenAI, but I would actually maybe focus a little bit more on even a perplexity, right? Because perplexity, again, when we think about the barbell effect, perplexity is sitting on top of all of the LLMs and creating a really compelling experience.

So I like- Because it's a wrapper. Correct, yeah. Sitting on top is an application at that layer so that they don't have to worry about investing all the money into creating the models. They're just sitting on top of the models and routing the queries based on what's needed to the best LLM for that query.

Okay. Lastly, OpenAI and Johnny Ive. A lot of eyebrows raised this week. So while that's interesting the design yeah God from Apple is gonna now he's gonna have his company bought by open AI and they're gonna make products and then I've mentions legacy products what'd you make of that I think what we're looking at is a view towards what is that next hardware platform so we have the ability to know what's happening

with all the advancements with AI itself. And now I think people are starting to think what's next beyond the phone itself? And how do we think about the ways that we can incorporate AI into our daily lives, make it less, make it more seamless and not have to constantly be down in the screen. I think that's what I would make my bet on.

Are you looking as a venture capitalist to invest in more software, service-related companies at this point, or where do gadgets, products, product development, where does that rank? There's a saying in Silicon Valley that investing in hardware is hard. Ha ha ha ha ha hard because of all of the different nuances and the integration of the hardware and the software.

I think now, speaking back to your earlier point, we have to think about policy impacting supply chain and where are the best components that exist for the miniaturization of these gadgets and components. It's really in China. So I think that's what people have to think about when they look at hardware, the integration of the hardware with the software. As much as they love your answers on the floor

of the New York Stock Exchange, they love a three-day weekend even more. You gotta love that. Don't take offense to it, but that's a tradition on the floor, so that's what happens at the bottom of the hour at three o'clock low thanks thanks for having me soon that's right Tony flex out all right up next 314s warm pies

he's tracking the technicals for us he's up with me next some more breaking news out of Washington this hour Eamon Jabras has that for us Eamon Jabras has that for us. Eamon? Scott, the president posting on Truth Social just a short time ago that the Nippon steel deal with U.S. steel will go through. Here's how the president put it. You see it's moving the stock there rather significantly, an initial spike down and now

a big leg up as the market realizes this is what the companies wanted. The president's saying after much consideration and negotiation, US Steel will remain in America and keep its headquarters in the great city of Pittsburgh. This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs and add $14 billion to the US economy. The bulk of that investment will occur in the next 14 months.

The president also saying here, I will see you at U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh on Friday, May 30th, for a big rally. Congratulations to all. So the President positioning this as an important win because U.S. Steel stays in the country. I've asked the President about this in the past, and what he is concerned about here is both the jobs and the symbolism of that U.S. Steel name.

Now, we don't see here any sort of definitive thing in writing which says that the U.S. steel brand will remain but that was important to the president as an iconic American brand. He wanted to see that stay in the United States and stay a visible piece of the American economy. It looks like he's getting largely what he wants here and has agreed to let this deal go through. Yeah, 17% for letter X. Eamon, thanks. Eamon Javer is outside the White House once again for us.

Stocks are pacing for their worst week since April as the backup in yields and more trade tensions weigh on the major averages this week. Our next guest says the technicals at least are bullish. Let's bring in 314 Research co-founder, Warren Paes. Good to see you here, welcome. Yeah, thanks for having me. So we're fundamentally, I think we have some questions,

but technically we look all right? Yeah, I mean, that's how we see it right now. When this whole tariff drama started, what we told our clients is basically, you're not gonna navigate this situation by psychoanalyzing Donald Trump. So, you know, our view has been, you're gonna navigate this with technicals,

what the price is telling you and the message of the markets. And the message of the markets is overwhelmingly bullish right now. Why so? Well, number one, the sentiment backdrop is, everyone, institutions don't believe in this rally right now. So if you look at like, vault targeted funds, CTAs, these systematic investors,

they have not gotten back in on this rally. So that's the sentiment side. And institutions I talked to anecdotally share that opinion. And then technically we've seen a lot of participation on this upside. Breath, basically a combination of breath thrust, which is a technical term for a lot of stocks are going up at the same time, that we've really never seen and not had outstanding returns in the next year. So you're saying at some point, because it's funny, what you're telling me anecdotally that we've really never seen and not had outstanding returns in the next year.

So you're saying at some point, because it's funny, what you're telling me anecdotally matches completely with what Adam Parker has told us in the last couple of days here on the set too, holding these dinners with institutional investors who are universally negative. What you're suggesting is at some point that money's going to flood into the market and take us higher. Yeah, I mean, and you can model some of that out. And so that's what I do. You know, like at our firm, our clients are institutional and there's a lot of skepticism

around the rally for sure. That's what I hear anecdotally. So I hear what Adam's hearing. But when we look at things like vol target, so these are vol targeted funds is a very common way to manage risk where they look at trailing vol and it caused them to de-risk during the sell-off in April and now when you just calculate that out, they're going to have to add a lot of equity back.

So yeah, I think they're going to get forced back into this market. What about rates? Do rates keep people out? Yeah. I mean, things can change, obviously. Rates are the, that's the bear case really, right? But I don't think that the fears in the bond market are overblown. And my honest opinion is that if you're gonna fade fears, fading fears in the bond market that are kind of existential, like we're gonna lose the dollars

reserve currency and things like that, those are the kinds of fears that crop up at good buying opportunities. And so my view is that rates are basically stuck between two big forces, disinflationary cyclical forces. You have oil that's weak, housing is kind of weak right here, no inflation from there, and the labor market is softening. So that's disinflationary.

I think the fiscal side is concerning, but I see rates being between four, three, four, six. Oil had started to go back up, right? I mean, after it looked like it was gonna steadily continue to go down, it actually had rebounded when we sort of figured out that you know what, maybe the economy and the consumer is a little bit better and sturdier than we thought again.

Yeah, I mean, oil is trying to rally, but the problem we've seen, this is my background, is crude oil. Because we're about 61. I mean, it looked like we were heading, could be below 50. Yeah, I mean, hopefully you can hold that 60, 61, but the problem in my view is that OPEC is adding so much supply back. So you were getting a double whammy. You got demand, and China has refused to stimulate,

fiscally stimulate their economy, even despite this tariff war. And so demand's kind of weak globally, even though the US is okay. And then supply, you have OPEC just adding all this supply back. So, you know, to me, I think oil still has more downside than upside.

Even with the dollar, you'd be getting weaker, right? I mean, that's been a considerable story this year too. The weakness in the dollar, right? The inverse relationship between dollar down, crude up. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that relationship is a little overblown in the markets because we become such producers of crude oil to the United States,

actually the largest producer in the world on certain metrics. And so when, you know, there's really this negative correlation, it's kind of broken down. All right, we'll see you soon. Thanks for coming by. Thanks for having me. That's Warren Pies joining us right here post 9up. Next we check the biggest movers into this Friday close. Christina Partseneveloff standing by with that. Hi, Christina. Hi, Scott. Well, we have a big late session mover, a lower,

and those are shares of Salesforce. We'll tell you what's driving a lower, plus a tax software maker riding high as the S&P 500 best performer. While we also have a major government contractor plunging on budget cuts and mass layoffs, all of those movers and details right after this short break. All right, we're about 15 from the bell. Let's get back to Christina now for the stocks she's watching. Tell us what you see. Well, we actually have some breaking headlines on Salesforce right now. Bloomberg reporting the cloud-based software firm is in talks to acquire a software company

Informatica after talks fell through just last year. You can see Informatica's shares are up almost, what, 20%, 18% while Salesforce down 3.5%. Look for possible details in next Wednesday's earnings report from Salesforce. Switching to Intuit now the best performing stock in the S&P 500 when the maker of Turbo Tax and QuickBooks software actually beat profit, beat sales, guidance estimates during its key income tax filing period. Bank of America says Intuit is separating itself from other software stocks after beating

earnings and raising guidance for two straight quarters. Last but not least, Booz, Allen, and Hamilton shares plunging today down over 16% after the consulting firm issued weak fiscal 2026 guidance and announced layoffs due to federal cost cutting. The CEO said on the earnings call that the Trump administration's budget cuts are really hitting civilian agency contracts, forcing the company to quote, restructure and reset its civil business with layoffs to match reduced demand. Scott. All right, Christina. Thanks, Christina. Parts of Nebula still ahead. Nuclear stock soaring today. Thanks to some big news out of Washington. There's been a lot of news out of DC today. Tell you more what's driving that bounce coming up. out of D.C. today. Tell you more what's driving that bounce coming up.

Up next some key retail names getting wrecked in today's session. More on those moves inside the market zone. We're now in the closing bell market zone. CMBC seniorets Commentator Mike Santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, Courtney Reagan on a painful week for retail. Pippa Stevens watching what's behind that move in nuclear stocks. And we begin with Courtney Reagan. We tell we got retail today and we look ahead to next week too. No rest for the weary, right?

I mean, it's been a week for retail and we've got more to come next week. Stocks are always focused on guidance more than the quarter that would just close to force you want to know what's ahead, not what's behind us, but with a very fluid tariff situation. Retailer strategies to manage it, that's really front and center this time. Big moves in retail stocks. But if you look at the XRT week to date, it's down about 2%, actually slightly better than the major indices. So overall, it's sort of smoothed out.

But Ross stores today down more than 10% after it withdrew its full year guidance due to macroeconomic and political uncertainty. UGG and HOCA owner Deckers shedding more than 20% after it posted weak HOCA and TTC sales, even though those were expected. No annual guidance given, and the current quarter guidance that was given was below

estimates. American Eagle shares, those are selling off this week, and that's ahead of its report that hasn't come until next week. Look at that steady flow lower, more than 13 percent in a week. Also next week, we're going to hear from Macy's, Dick's Sporting Goods. Remember, they are in an agreement to buy Footlocker. We've got Gap, Abercrombie, Capri Holdings. Some of their deals have fallen apart. Maybe we'll get more news. We don't know. Elf Beauty, Kohl's, Alta, Costco. There's a lot to come. Echo with you.

Yeah, that's the point. Big, big week ahead. You'll be busy. Court, thank you. That's Courtney Reagan. Pippa Stevens, talk to me about nuclear today. Yeah, Scott. Nuclear stocks are rallying on the heels of President Trump's four executive orders aimed at jumpstarting the industry through easier licensing, project certainty, and domestic fuel supply chains. The URA and URNM, which track the space, both adding more than 11 percent. Mining stocks, including Cameco, Denison, and NextGen, all jumping double digits. There's also reactor developers like Oklo and New Scale, as well as fuel suppliers like

Centris. Finally, independent power producers, Vistra and Constellation, which own nuclear generation, also in the green. Now, there's no question the federal support is beneficial for the industry, but Segri Capital's Arthur Hyde did also note that short interest was at all time highs for some of those mining stocks.

So, some of today's stock reaction could also be a bit of a short squeeze. Scott? All right, Pippa, Thank you, Pippa Stevens. Two minutes ago, you just saw the animation, which means Mike Santoli is coming in. What do you make of the price

action today? You know, in the context of a market that needed to back off probably and cool and let some of the heat dissipate, it makes sense. We've been very sticky around $5,800.

We're going to close right around there. What's $5,800? Well, I don't know. It's the level we traded up to on right around there. What's 5,800? Well, I don't know, it's the level we traded up to on November 6th. It's the level we actually reached the day after the China kind of de-escalation was put in place.

So it makes sense, you have these offsetting kind of currents in the market, where yields calming down a little bit is enough for the lag groups to come up. So I think that nothing has broken containment. We're down two to 3% from the recent highs. We probably can't declare it over in terms of a pullback. I think this is kind of the minimally expected pullback after this run, but overall it's intact. I mean, you know, you're staying above the

important levels. It's obviously there's a real dip buying instinct in this market. Retail, very energized. you're seeing some of the real speculative tech move a lot even when there's no news around it. So you know I would say it's okay again in the context of a market that ran a long way in six weeks. Tell me how you're thinking about Nvidia which is going to report earnings middle of next week. I think confidence has really been rebuilt in the fundamental story.

What we don't know is how much the street is going to be willing to pay for this great story. And I do think that that is something that you have to just test with the numbers themselves. We've heard a lot from Jensen. We've heard a lot from Nvidia. We've heard a lot about the ecosystem. So I don't think there's a lot of mystery in the numbers. But if we're going to be able to declare confidence well into 2026, it should support the stock.

It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at a nice high. It's at well into 2026, it should support the stock. It's had a nice bounce off. We're going to go out red, certainly not even close to how we started this day. I'll see you on the other side of the holiday weekend.