Closing Bell - Closing Bell 8/11/26

Episode Date: August 11, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wapner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with where this market goes next. And whether tomorrow's CPI report really does hold the key. We'll ask our experts over this final stretch. We'll show you the scorecard with 60 to go now. In regulation, pretty narrow tape as the waiting game goes on. It's definitely been that. It certainly felt like that over the last couple of days. Yield's a little bit lower. We're watching two big tech names today. Invity is a little bit higher. It certainly has been. Well, now it's in. the red as well. That financing deal late yesterday and that extraordinary event that unfolded right on this network. We'll discuss that coming up. How about Apple defending its iPhone plans after that rare downgrade yesterday? And certainly one of the stock stories of the day on holdings getting tripped up after its sales missed. The guide came in light as well. We'll track that stock's worst day ever right into the finish. It does take us to our talk of the tape the road ahead for this market. Let's welcome in our panel. Solace is Dan Green. House and so far as Liz Thomas. Good to have you both with us. What do you think is hanging on

tomorrow morning's CPI? I think a lot. Because of the debate with the Fed about where they hike or not to hike? Should they hike? Sure. The employment report was important, obviously, but the... And was weaker. And was weaker than expected, although obviously if you X out local government teachers, there was a positive number. But the debate on the labor market, I would argue, for lack of a had a word is settled. Whether we create 10,000 jobs or 80,000 jobs, whatever the number is right now, the economy is capable and is producing tens of thousands of jobs. But the inflation question is not settled. Are you okay with the earpiece? I'll get it. The inflation question is not settled. The inflation question is not settled. So we had obviously one report that was cooperative.

We'll see how the next one goes. And so I think that's a much more important report with respect to the Fed by extension interest rates, by extension assets. How would you answer the question to the importance of the report? Well, first of all, I would argue that the labor report on Friday actually wasn't important. It was a negative print and nobody cared. So we're not even focusing on that because all the Fed seems to be focused on is inflation, which means that tomorrow's report is very important, especially because right now the odds for a September hike are 50-50. Yes, 50-50. So tomorrow pushes that in one direction or the other, and that gets baked in. Unless we get some kind of surprise from Warsh at Jackson Hole, I think whatever gets baked in tomorrow after this

CPI report is what is likely to stay baked in for the September meeting. Does a hot report then upset the market? Yes. The stock market? Absolutely. Yes. And remember what happened after the Fed meeting last time. We had the 10-year yield rise and the two-year yield fall. There was volatility in between, but then the curve steepened. So let's say. 30-year went up a lot. Right. So the 30-year, remember, you know, as Chair Worse was speaking, the 30-year hit 520. And here we are at 520. And here we are at 523 and a half. Yep. So for stocks, I think if we get a hot inflation report tomorrow, the September odds for a

hike go up to well beyond 50%, almost baked in 100%. 100%. Well, close to, right? You have to sort of guessing game that. Let's say it gets a beyond 75%. Then it's baked in that we get one hike. So stocks, I don't think like that at all. Because I don't think stocks have priced in the risk of that actually happening or the

upset that would occur if we start a hiking cycle. I keep hearing some people come on the show and say, oh, if they hike one time, it's no big deal. Well, you know, first of all, I somewhat disagree with Liz just said. But to address that point, yeah, one hike is no big deal, but the point isn't the one hike. It's what does that mean? Yes. And this is that this is always the case. Everyone always says 25 basis points isn't a big deal, but we're not talking about 20. No, no, it's the context. It's the context matters. And so you already have, the important context for this is you already have three dissents. So it's not as if you're starting from zero. So you're already teetering. And you have Beth Hammock saying that you need a couple of bikes. She said right today that was that

one may not be enough. One may not be enough. Well, what do you disagree with Liz about? So. Would you forget that already? No. Well, yes. But now I got no. I mean, Liz is usually right. But what I was going to somewhat disagree and say, you mentioned that the 30 years of 520, etc. Meanwhile, the stock markets at a high. How much does do interest rates really matter? There's an internal debate about how much interest rates really matter. Well, they matter a lot. The only reason they don't matter as much as they may be ordinarily would is because

earnings right now matter more. Okay, well, but that's sort of the point, that you have interest rates at cycle highs in some cases, but we've had some version of the debate, what's more important? The Federal Reserve slash interest rates were the AI story. And I have for a year come down on the side of the AI story, and I think that's borne out quarter after quarter after quarter. Rates are at a high, but if you look over since the start of earnings season, which has been exceptional, as you noted. Half the index is higher than the market, which is what you

would think. Half the sectors are beating the market, which is what you would expect. It's been a perfectly normal stock market over the last two months, even as interest rates have continued to move higher. So it's unquestionably less important than the AI investment theme. But that's why, you know, I think we said at halftime today, bullishness abounds. It's like everybody seems like they're bullish. Price targets now, you know, 8,000 feels like a floor. And you've got some higher targets. There was somebody talk about 9,000 potentially yesterday. A year end? But that, I don't know about near year end, but nonetheless, people see a roadmap to higher numbers, higher highs, because earnings continue to go up. Yeah. And let me be clear. I don't think a rate hike

takes this market down permanently. I think that, and Jonathan Kronski is the one that made this point. I believe in his note today, so I'm not going to take credit for it. He gets all the credit. But the risk in stocks, if we have a hot inflation print tomorrow, is to the downside. Bonds already priced in a hike. Bonds have already been rising. We've seen yields go up incrementally. We've seen long yields go up even more. So bonds are prepared for the surprise of a hike or the surprise of a hot inflation print. Stocks are not. So I think you see volatility in the short term. If we get a hot inflation print, then we get through that September meeting. And to your point, it's about what happens after that. If we're trying to draw parallel,

to the 90s, which we will constantly do until this is all over. The hiking that began in the late 90s didn't end. It was a hiking cycle, and then everything came down afterwards. So that will then be the next debate. If they hike in September, are they going to continue hiking, and is that the beginning of the end? And how long can earnings really overshadow that risk? And I think it can last for a while, but it can't last forever. And if they over-tighten, this starts to look like a mistake, right? And we're having this debate right now about where the mistake is going to be. Are they already late and they made that mistake? Or will starting a hiking cycle and trying to cool off an economy that's not hot enough be the mistake?

I actually fall in the ladder camp. I hope they don't hike too much and try to cool an economy that's really only growing at 1.5 to 2%. The long end could be fixed here for a little while no matter what. I mean, you have obviously concerns about the deficit, excuse me. You have the issuance going on from all the money that's being raised to fund the AI build-out. and then you have a divided Fed, a less communicative Fed, and that has a price to it as well. So those are, you know, three variables at play. Yeah, Steve Leesman, a couple of days ago, made sort of this point about the shift in the Federal Reserve

and how there is a price to pay for it. There is. The prices, in Steve's argument, slightly higher yields. But I also think the deficit point is not unimportant. I mean, we spend so little time on this. And truthfully, over the last 30 years, anyone who's... who's warned about the deficit has been proven, for lack of a better word, incorrect in the short term. But we are running depression-level deficits, even though the economy is expanding, albeit, as Liz noted,

at a relatively tame 1.5, 2.5% rate. All right, so put your earpiece in, because I'm going to bring Leasman in now, and you're going to want to hear what he says so that you can react to it. If you can handle it. There you get. Okay. Hi, Steve. Steve is our senior economics correspondent, of course, and he joins us now. So how do you think we should be thinking about the CPI tomorrow on both sides, whether it's, you know, cooler or hotter? And what that's going to really mean for a Fed that's going to be out there speaking in terms of the chair himself at Jackson Hole really soon, actually.

Yeah, I don't think, unfortunately, Scott, that tomorrow's report is the be-all and end-all that the market's waiting for. We're looking for a relatively benign inflation report. and that follows the June number that was unexpected, the unexpected decline there that did keep the hike at bay. Here's the numbers you guys are all screaming and yelling about. Just 0.1% expected tomorrow. That's after that unexpected 0.4% decline. And then 02 on the core. Both numbers are enough to bring down the headline number, the year-over-year number, by a 10th, 3, 4, and 2-5 are what are expected.

Now, the reason why I'm a little, look, I'm going to be very excited when the number comes out tomorrow, But after this CPI report, put on your seatbelt because we've got to go through the July PPI on Thursday. We got the PCE on the 26th, just ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. 10 or 4th is jobs. And then you get a PPI report, another CPI report before the FOMC statement. So they have a bunch of time to figure all this out. Here's some of the data. Before the June data, inflation had been pushing upward, led by higher oil prices, but also seeping somewhat into cords,

that little elevation in the orange line that had the concern several Fed officials who were already anxious. that the Fed had been missing its 2% inflation target for five years. Another thing to look at, since Worcesterisk office, inflation expectations measured in the tips markets, have ease, suggesting either some confidence in the inflation outlook, maybe some concern about economic weakness from the job support, or belief in Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's absolute promise to deliver 2%. So that's not a bad chart there for him.

The Fed's decision to pause the July meeting, it may turn out to have been the right call if by September, the economy would rack up three straight reports of improving inflation. The Fed's going to pay close attention to the underlying inflation data, less to the headline data that's going to swing with all prices. And I'll just add to your conversation, Scott, the stocks that are doing well where all those profits are showing up don't care one guacamole about whether the Fed raises a quarter point or a half a point. Well, because earnings are really, really good. And as long as that stays the way it is,

there's no reason to believe anything different. And by the way, can't we say, that the Fed was right to wait and see, at least the ones who certainly wanted to after the jobs report, we had a bad jobs report in the last month, too. So that looks like the right call. And the other thing I wanted to ask you about, in terms

of this PCE, which we used to describe as the Fed's favorite inflation measure, if I recall from Chair Warsh's news conference, I think he was asked about the PCE. And I got the feeling like he may not think it is

the Fed's most important measure of inflation right now, according to him and how he wants to view that? Look, I would admit I'm the first person learning to listen to Kevin Warsh, and I'm not sure his message is 100%, and I'm not sure I'm hearing 100%, but here's what I'm learning about listening to Kevin Warsh. There's two things going on now. He has this long, broad, long-term reform he's trying to do that's going to look at all kinds of stuff like what inflation metric's the right metric. But he also has a ship to run now.

And as far as I can tell Scott, the ship that he needs to run now is operating on the old PCE. And I don't think he means to change that as the target for what he's aiming for now. The task force may come along and it may be like, okay, that's not the best metric. There's a better metric.

Let's get the whole FOMC on board. I'm looking at this new metric, and here's why. I don't think he means to take our attention away from the old target and to change the target before he's hit it. He has pledged absolute fealty to the 2% target. I believe that fealty is to the 2% PCE target. And I don't think he wants to change that. I think he needs to talk a little bit more separation between what's long term and short term. But having gone back and read what he said,

I think that's what he's saying. And I think part of the reason for the market's concern was, hey, which one are you aiming at? But I think if you go back and you read very carefully and we learn to listen to Warsh, we might come away with that explanation. I got to let you go. But remind us, when is the Jackson Hole speech? Hang on. I believe it's the 27th thing. I'm giving me a second, Scott.

But it's the end of the month. It's a Wednesday, I want to say. Okay. Right. 25th. It's the 28th is when he would know. normally speak that Friday. All right. So late in that, well, okay. I didn't mean to put you on the spot. I thought it may be, maybe top of mind. And you'll be there, obviously. I got to get through

tomorrow, Scott, before I can move to 20. All right. I appreciate you. You know that. We'll see you soon. That's Steve Leesman. All right. So we'll come back here. So I have a hard time believing, okay? And maybe it's me. That they're actually, that they would raise rates in September, that they're going to, that his first move is going to be a hike and that it's going to come before that he would advocate, because not his decision solely, he would advocate for a rate hike

knowing the midterms are in November. How do you think about that? The stock answer is going to be they don't take... No, I don't want the stock answer. I want like the unfiltered answer. It's probably something that they consider, but getting back to the original point, there's already three dissents. There's already

rumblings beneath the headline, so to speak. You don't need him, so to speak, you can have a fourth dissent among the voting class and... Was the chair going to be the dissenter? Yeah, maybe. It's happened if Volker got outvoted. So,

who knows? Yes, I think gun if I had to make a decision, yeah, I probably doesn't want to raise rates before the midterms. At the same time, I would also say I'm not sure the economy needs a rate hike right now

because there's a, to the point about the debate very quickly about what's the right measure of inflation six months from now. There's tariffs, there's oil prices, there's AI demand. All three of those, as Steve said explicitly, with respect to AI demand, are interest rate insensitive. Raising rates is not going to fix this trade of our moves. Raising rates is not going to make Google any less likely to invest, et cetera, et cetera. And so what percentage of the above-target inflation is purely demand-driven, and how much do you want to raise rates to try to bring that back in? That's the debate that's going. Okay, so hold on one more time because we want to talk about the financials now.

They've been on a tear. Today it's the private equity names that are especially strong. That sector, the financials, going for its 11th straight up week. Leslie Picker has been following this, as you would expect, and joins us with more. Hi. Hi, Scott. Yeah, that means it's on pace for the longest weekly winning streak for financials ever, if it notches gains this week. So today's big gains, as you mentioned, largely driven by the alternative asset managers. You can see their KKR up about 6.5%. Apollo up more than six, Blue Owl, up 5.2%.

The group has been rallying quarter to date helped in large part by earnings over the last few weeks that broadly came in better than feared. As Goldman analysts point out, the group saw record 2Q fundraising and earnings revisions have stabilized and the multiples are still trading

at a discount to five-year averages as well. So there's some optimism that the wealth flows are re-accelerating after tremendous volatility, as we've been reporting on this show over the last year. Additionally, the market is paying more attention to the role that these managers are playing in the AI financing boom, as made evident by yesterday's announcement by NVIDIA to make its chips and compute a financiable asset class with the help of six private markets firms.

Yeah, who were, you know, shoulder to shoulder with Jensen Wong on this air, which was extraordinary in and of itself. Leslie, thank you very much. That's Leslie Picker. Liz, I bring up the financials for as much a reason as any to show that there's a lot more going on than just the AI trade. I know the two are tied together in some respects, but nonetheless, the broadening of the market has been pretty remarkable. The equal weight has been at or near record highs. There's far more going on here than just tech leading the show.

Thank goodness, because for the longest time, everything was so concentrated. We were worried that one misstep in tech would take everything down. And now here we are with financials, which I talk about a lot as confirming a rally. I want to see financials take part in that, and that's happened already in the market. Now we've got earnings for financials, and we're looking at a market that's driven by earning strength. Financials is one of the places where you get the most bang for your buck. I mean, these companies, all different kinds of financial companies, are earning in a very strong way. You've got big banks that have looked through a flattened yield curve and didn't get

the benefit of net interest margin for most of the year, they're okay. We've got diversified revenue streams for a lot of these financials firms. We've got a pickup in capital markets activity, even without some of the IPOs that we were hoping for later this year. And now if you've got private equity, private debt companies coming back after being beaten down and left for dead, this is all a good sign. It's a good cyclical sign for the economy. It's a good sign that credit spreads have stayed tight because that's something that we also need to watch in financial markets, and it's a good sign that earnings are coming in and backing it all up with fundamentals. I mean, Russell 2000, nice today. It's green, right? Mid caps, small caps. Doing well. There's a lot

going on. We've talked about this a couple of times. When you look at the industry level, it's not just AI. I mean, although AI impacts industrials, impacts materials, it's almost everything. But you look at steel dynamics and new core. Yeah, materials have been amazing. Materials have been amazing. You can go sector by sector and see thematically, look at Amgen over in healthcare. There's a lot of healthcare technology going on, but not necessarily Emgen. There's a lot of names that are doing very well. You couldn't have earnings. They broadened out. Well, because the economy's doing fine. The consumer's doing fine. You couldn't have said that this entire rally the last couple of years. You can certainly say it now.

That's the thing is that earnings now, I think, what are we talking? 14%, you know, the average sector. So it's far beyond just tech. Tech looks extraordinary relative to that. But, you know, let's not hate on the other stuff that's really starting to look pretty good, and estimates they're going up too. Right. Well, and that's the thing. It's a revision story, too. It's not just that earnings have knocked the cover off the ball on what's happening in the

rear view, but revisions continue to rise through a number of different sectors, and you're seeing the rotation that we saw start to take place as semiconductors sold off. That still has strength. And you're seeing sectors like health care. We already talked about financials come back in and really carry their weight. That's what you need to see in a market like this. and even energy really punching above. There was a note to that regard today.

Earnings are not just like blowing away expectations. The forecast and the revisions, I'm sorry, the revisions continue to go up by large magnitudes as well. That's exactly the story that you're talking about. Which is why you start hearing people talk about a bubble in earnings. Are our expectations too high? Is that going to be a problem? And at some point, perhaps, yes, at some point,

Maybe there needs to be a little bit of rejiggering in some of these tech earnings. CapEx needs to slow down. Some of the growth rates will slow down. But that's a natural part of a cycle. That's a natural part of maturing through a theme. So, of course, that will happen at some point. But while we're in the thick of earnings really just beating all estimates, you might as well ride it. Jump on this bus and hopefully you're already on the bus and stay aboard.

Real quick. To paraphrase real quick. Oh, no, don't say it. What? Do you have a dance? In the music plan? Yeah. You were going to say that?

I was going to say, who I. I knew you were. Scott and I, we know. That's why I said don't. We'll see you again soon. Dan Greenhouse. Thank you. Liz Thomas. Thanks as well.

All right. Now to that foot pain from on holdings after its earnings, not the only name in that arena looking sore today. Brandon Gomez here with more. So this stock is having the worst day ever. But there are others as we've followed today that are getting hit as well for a variety of reasons. Yeah.

call it in sympathy, but honestly, it's a case of two left feet for some of these companies. On holdings cratering 20% after Q2 results came in mixed. The company reducing full-year revenue guidance. Brian Belski, though, holding strong with you this afternoon, flagging apparel up 48% and DTC up 26%, saying you own on holding for the apparel. Well, then you have Under Armour falling today on some analyst downgrades, barclay downgrading the stock to underweight. The firm citing delayed brand recovery, a competitive sector,

and what they called macro-related consumer malay. Now, that after the sportswear brand said traffic trends have weakened, especially in North America and the Asia-Pacific region, cutting its revenue outlook for the year. And then you have Dick's sporting goods also falling. Haven't been, hasn't been trading well lately. The pullback comes one day after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight, raising its price target to 240. Wells Fargo called it the best way to play a Nike recovery. Earnings are on the docket for August 25th, so we'll wait until then to hear more, Scott. All right, good stuff, Brandon.

Thank you. It's Brandon Gomez. Send it to Christina Partinevulus now, who has a look at the biggest names moving into the close today. Hi. Hi, Scott. Well, let's start with shares of Chinese music platform, Tencent, because they're dropping 11% right now. Despite strong quarterly results, revenue rose 6% from a year ago, partially thanks to its acquisition of the podcast and audio platform, Himalaya. Music-related services was the key growth driver, while revenue from social entertainment services, there you go, fell 16%.

shares of the location tracking platform Life 360, sinking as well, kept, it did keep its full year guidance unchanged, adjusted operating earnings beat estimates, but analysts just attributed that to a one-time tariff benefit and timing of increased costs. Monthly active users were roughly in line with estimates as well, and that's why shares are down 27%. Joby shares falling after it agreed to buy the Defense Tech Company resident sciences for about $500 million. The acquisition gives Joby an established defense operation alongside its existing aviation and air taxi initiative. Shares are down over 4%. So a bunch of red on this hit, Scott. All right. I appreciate that. We'll come back to you a little bit. Christina, thanks.

We're just getting started here coming up next. Big moves in the AI race to go public, Anthropic reportedly looking to shore up investor confidence as Open AI loses a key executive. We have those details coming up. Plus, we'll hear from early Anthropic investor, notable capitals, Jeff Richards. We're live with the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching closing bell on CNBC. Welcome back, Anthropic reportedly meeting with potential investors to shore up confidence ahead of its planned IPO. Also a big departure today from OpenAI. Our Kate Rooney has the details on both stories for us. Hi. Hi, Scott. Well, what I'm hearing from sources, Anthropics IPO could come as soon as

October. The team, from what I'm hearing, is meeting with bankers as part of that entire process with the Wall Street Journal reporting some details from behind the scenes. The company reportedly offering assurances about its revenue growth rate has also been fielding investor questions about competitive pressure amid some of the cheaper AI models coming out of China. No comment from Anthropic on this, but the AI giant has publicly talked about the value of these more expensive models that they offer the cost per task and then making the case really that enterprises are still going to be willing to pay for the best systems if they do the task efficiently. Anthropic has, of course, filed confidentially to go public that S1 will flip closer to the listing date. And then over

to rival Open AI for a second. A source telling me that AI giant just wrapped up a $7 billion tender offer to get employees liquidity ahead of its own IPO. The company is buying back those shares versus selling to other investors. And at the same time, Open AI just lost one of its longest tenured executives. This is Brad Lightcap. He is leaving the company after eight years to, quote, start something new. He just announced that on social media today. It is the latest shakeup at that company. Fiji Simo stepped down earlier this year.

She was another top executive due to a chronic illness, Scott. Okay, good stuff. Kate, thank you. That's Kate Rooney. Now let's bring in notable capitals, Jeff Richards. He is an early investor into Anthropics. It's nice to see you again. Welcome back. Great to see you, Scott.

How are you? Let me ask you first off of well, thank you, about the Open AI news, the Brad Lightcap news. Are we to assume that the fact that OpenAI initiated this tender is going to lead to more potential departures from important people because now they finally have the ability to monetize some of their time there? It's a great question. You know, companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, DataBrix, Anthropic, have been doing employee liquidity rounds for years now. It's become a fairly common thing in Silicon Valley. it does you know we do see quite the entrepreneurial ecosystem growth because of it so for us as venture capitalists it's an exciting time you got a lot of phenomenal people that are spinning out of these companies two or three years in their life cycle it's a great question and just probably something these companies have to deal with as they as they grow and they scale and obviously we've seen value creation in anthropic and open AI like we've frankly just never seen before in Silicon Valley I mean especially I suppose as I ask the question I think about the fact as well that here we are talking about anthropic head

closer to going public while we don't really think that the open AI event is going to happen in calendar year 26. So one heads, you know, out the door soon and the other one we're not so sure. Thus, the maybe the willingness or the desire to utilize the tender rather than wait around to see whenever the company decides to go public. Well, we'll see what the timing is for both companies. I think the thing that is also worth mentioning is there are a ton of great companies beyond open-a-anthropic that are in the AI sector here in Silicon Valley. They're doing phenomenally well.

Many of these companies in three or four years have grown to 500 million or even a billion of revenue. You're talking about companies like Versailles, Base 10, Fowl, fireworks. These are the next cloud flare, Palo Alto, Crowdstrike, Snowflake. You know, these companies that have grown over the last five, ten years from 10 to 100 billion in the world. public markets, there's a whole bunch of those companies coming beyond OpenAI and Anthropic. And not to diminish OpenAAAAAOB. They're two of the greatest technology companies ever built. And if you just think about the IGV, which I know you guys follow very closely and most of your listeners do as well, which is a software ETF, the combined revenue for all the companies in the

IGV outside of Microsoft and Oracle is about $140 billion a year. So we're talking about two companies that in under five years have grown to about the same size as the entire IGV ETF. These are really important companies. but there are a whole host of other great companies that are coming along and hopefully they'll go public in the next six to 12 months as well. So as an early investor into Anthropic, I mean, how are you thinking about the coming IPO and how you think it would be received within the marketplace, given that, okay, SpaceX went first, we obviously know what's happened since and that this one looks like it's going to beat

open AI out the door. Well, the really interesting thing to ask is, you know, if you wind back the clock to 2021, we had 26 software companies that were growing at north of 30%. Today, we only have four. Palantir is an obvious one. You've got a few other companies in that mix, but the market is starved for high growth names in software and technology. Obviously, people have been betting on the hyperscalers for years now and Nvidia,

but looking for new names that can grow at a super high rate. So we don't really know, nobody really knows, how will the market value these companies? Those companies growing at 30% are generally trading at about 30 to 40. times forward revenue and Pallenture trades at 60 times forward revenue. So I think the big question, Scott, is how are these companies, not can they go public? They can certainly go public. How are they going to be valued? Are we going to comp them to the 30% growers, even though they're growing much faster or are we going to create new multiples and create this whole new growth ecosystem in

software and tech over the next 12, 18 months? It's going to be fun to watch. Sure. What about the others that are in the pipeline? I mean, how do you think they're thinking about coming public when you're going to have this massive supply event in a matter of, you know, a month or two. Well, interestingly, a lot of these companies now, the way that the private markets work, you know, we've expanded the definition of venture capital quite a bit over the last decade. And so it's gone from $100 billion a year to $500 billion a year. This year will probably eclipse $500 billion. But a lot of the investors in those companies already are public market or crossover investors.

You've got folks like Wellington and Fidelity. You've got hedge funds like Brad Gershner and the KOTU folks and a whole host of other folks. So a lot of these companies have great shareholder bases that have bought into these companies in the last 24 months and plan to hold them for the next five to 10 years. You've obviously got the early shareholders, the seed investors, the Series A investors who might be looking for liquidity and employees. But I think what you're going to find is a relatively sophisticated cap table for a lot of these companies. And part of the reason they do the tenders as well is to clear out some of the early investors and create a more stable shareholder base.

So when they go public, there isn't a ton of pressure and insider selling, and you have more long-duration shareholders on the cab table. You mentioned earlier the IGV, the software ATF. I mean, I'm curious what you make of the comeback, if you want to call it that, whether you think it's durable, whether people were too quick to declare software dead, all the above. Well, I think a lot of us were quite perplexed at the quote-unquote SaaSpocalypse in Q1, just because it was. It was really a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. You had seat-based software being valued or going down at the same rate the cloud infrastructure and cybersecurity names were. And what you've seen, obviously the IGV I think is up about 20% year to date, but you've

got individual names like some of the ones I mentioned, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Network, Snowflake, these infrastructure companies are clearly benefiting from AI that are up over 100% in the last 90 days, some of them 120, 30%. So I think the market has sort of figured this out and gotten it right. And obviously you saw record growth for the hyperscalers from Google and Amazon in the last 30 days as well. So that, you know, to us, that, or least to me, that saspocalypse in Q1 was a little overblown.

And now the market is starting to get back into a groove where it's valuing the companies that are clearly winners as part of this AI trade and heavily tied into the growth of the companies you mentioned, Anthropic and Open AI, and benefiting from all the CAPEX investment, the hypers are making folks like NVIDIA, AMD, others that are leading broadcom that are leading on the charge on the infrastructure side. And then, you know, NVIDIA's announcement yesterday to partner with the private equity firms and put another $500 billion into this market, certainly helps to answer part of the question of can we fund all this demand? Today, we're compute constrained. There's more demand than there is compute.

Obviously what we need is both regulatory cooperation to build more data centers and more compute, but also the funding to do so. And I think that was a big step forward. Yeah. Maybe we're attempting to find some kind of equilibrium in the software arena, and we're getting closer to doing just that. It's good to see, as always. Hopefully next time out west.

Take care. Thanks, Scott. Look forward to it. Yep, me as well. That's Jeff Richards. Coming up, another big money bet on sports. And this time, it's one of the world's richest that wants in on the game. Alex Sherman, following that money, joins us next.

A new report says Jeff Bezos is close to buying a piece of the Liverpool Football Club. CNBC Sports's Alex Sherman has more. What do we know? Hey, Scott. Yeah, CNBC has confirmed that Bezos is part of a consortium that's interested in buying about a 30% stake in Liverpool. CNBC sport valuations.

Value Liverpool at $6 billion, the fourth most expensive European soccer team. But, you know, the deal got me thinking that it's interesting. that as the valuations of all these sports teams have gone up, the wealthiest men in the world, men and women, don't really own majority stakes in any of the major American or international sports teams. I mean, if you think about Elon Musk, you think about Jeff Bezos, you think about Michael Dell, the Google co-founders, none of them own majority stakes in a U.S. or international sports franchise. And it comes at an interesting time. as the valuations for all of these teams rise and there can be fewer and fewer buyers for them.

So look, let me turn the tables on you, Scott. Why do you think that is? I do not know. I mean, you have some, you know, there's some Walmart money now in the Broncos. A little bit. People thought that, you know, Bezos maybe was going to go after the Seahawks. Vinod Kosla, you know, got that instead. It's a really good question.

I don't know the answer to that. Yeah, the Walton stand out, like you said, they bought the Broncos in 2022, but that's just a few years old. And as you mentioned, a small portion of their vast wealth. You know, it got me thinking about a variety of different possibilities. Look, one, very simple. Maybe a lot of these people are not sports fans, and they would just rather spend their time doing something else. Another consideration, I think, is that if you are the majority owner of a sports team, you are under the gun in terms of media pressure, consumer, fan backlash, and it's possible that the world's wealthiest people simply want to spend their

time doing something else other than being kind of the butt of everyone's jokes. Think about how you think of your local team, your favorite team's owner. Do you have a positive opinion or a negative opinion of that owner? My guess is that more people have negative opinions than positive opinions. It's kind of like an umpire in many ways. Unless you've just been winning championship after championship, only one team can win a championship every year. So it's certainly possible that that backlash is part of the calculus to why we've seen more minority stakes. Michael Dell, I mentioned to him, fifth wealthiest person. He bought a minority stake in the San Antonio Spurs a few years ago, and that's what we're seeing here with Jeff Bezos. Okay. Interesting reporting.

I guess all plausible reasons, too. We'll talk more soon. Alex, thanks. Alex Sherman. Closing bells back after this. All right, tend to the bell. Let's get back to Christina now for the stock she's watching. What do you see? Well, let's have shares about uploading because they're following. on a Bank of America downgrade to neutral from buy. The firm said it just needs more evidence that App Loving can meet its 30% year-over-year growth forecast, specifically pointing to its self-learning trajectory and its recommender system models. I bring that up because shares are down 6% one of the worst S&P performers right now. And secondly, plug power shares gaining after the company posted a smaller than expected loss. It also raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance,

driven by new volume it expects in the current quarter. Maybe good for the first. solar industry. Scott. Okay. I'll see you in the zone. Yeah. I'm not going anywhere. No, I know. All right. Because Corweaves coming up after the bell. We'll talk about that. Coming up. We're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Marcy McGregor of Maryland Bank of America are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Oliver Renick, standing by live, as always, from the Cibbo Global Markets in Chicago. And Christina Parsinevelas, as we said, is looking ahead to Corweev Ernie's. They're coming in overtime. Michael, your thoughts first. Yeah, Scott, this is a market that obviously knows how to buy at its time. It just trades one

thing against another. Obviously, modest losses giving back some of last week's games and the headline indexes, but you do have, you know, banks up, NASDAQ 100 down. The AI hardware food chain has a little bit of relief today. Actually, it's leading to the upside, maybe with that financing news. Most of all, though, I do think the market is waiting to see if CPI ends up being a catalyst or just has to get out of the way and be a little bit of a clearing moment for the market to figure out what NAC said earlier. I still think downside in the S&P a couple percent would make sense here just to kind of test whether this breakout was real. How are you going to tackle this in overtime? I'm sure you're going to talk about what lies ahead tomorrow morning with CPI, right?

For sure, we are going to handicap that as well as, of course, break down some of the earnings after the market closed, such as Corweave. And then we have the head of Sony Pictures Entertainment who's going to talk about, you know, the Spider-Man movie and industry consolidation, all the rest. Oh, awesome. That's an exclusive. We'll look forward to that. Mike, thanks.

Appreciate that. Oliver and Chicago, what do you see there? Options suggest Super Micro might be the earnings to watch today, Scott. It's a major player in the data center server buildout and has some drama, both in the chart and its options. The stock's down 70% from its high more than two years ago, but two of its last four earnings led to big overnight gains and options. traders are expecting a very big 14% swing after this report.

Nine of the top 10 contracts today by volume are calls with the 32 strike call expiring Friday, the most traded by dollar amount. That includes the single biggest trade of the day, someone who bought almost a million dollars worth, 3,000 of those calls at a price of $3.30 per contract, which means they need Super Micro to rally about 13% into the weekend, just shy of that option. implied moves, Scott. All right, Oliver appreciate you as well. Thank you. Oliver Renek. All right. Corwee, going to be

really closely watched in overtime, Christina. Yeah, because the stock has actually closed lower the day after earnings five straight quarters in a row, and it sits roughly 42 percent below. It's high. Some saying neoclods are bottoming. Part of that is meta-signaling. It could sell excess AI compute plus force

hedge fund selling. We saw from situational awareness. And then heavy debt loads when rates are climbing. All of this applies to why Corey's shares fell. But the street wants a modest revenue beat in line with the 4 to 5% beats of recent quarters. Margins, of course, matter more. Management called this quarter the trough and said upfront cost to build out new capacity hit before that capacity actually starts billing. So that's why it was hit just when we saw the last earnings report. The bulk case rides on margins

actually turning higher into year end. And then watch the backlog. Remaining performance obligations are tracking around $107 billion. Slight increase from last quarter, the street wants to see that sequential growth hold. Last thing, key, power scaling is going towards 1.7 gigawatts by year end and whether meta's move into cloud compute is a genuine threat. So those will be two things that will definitely come up on the call. All right, good stuff. Look forward to that. Christina, thanks very much. That's Christina Parts in other ones.

Marcy McGregor. What kind of shape do you think this market's in? You know, I think we're seeing a little bit of turn here, but I think this is summer doldrums more than anything else, because under the hood of the market, the internals are actually improving. So a market underpinned by really strong earnings growth and capax. And an economy that I think is actually stronger than headline GDP has indicated that I think we're off to a stronger start for third quarter.

I would be a buyer on any weakness here in the chop and kind of poor seasonality of August and September, especially as we head into midterms. I want to be invested here. This is a market that he stripped out the best five days of the S&P 500 is actually only up 2%, so it's painful to miss those. Yeah. A buyer because of earnings, right? Buyer because of earnings.

You know, the bar is high, but the S&P keeps clearing it. And this quarter, we're on track for 81% of companies have positive earnings growth. That is really stunning breadth for this earnings party. What's on the line tomorrow morning with CPI in your mind? You know, our view is that CPI is going to come in kind of right at consensus, so call it like 2.5% year-over-year growth. both. These two reports, you know, it's not just this one, but next month as well before the September Fed meeting are really critical and will determine the past. I think a cool CPI report,

you know, could move yields lower. I think it could also put the market expectations for a hike on the sidelines. So the market will be watching it closely. We'll be watching it closely. It's not just tomorrow. It's going to be PPI for the next two months as well as the next jobs report. Do you see yields, elevated yields, as a key risk for stocks? You know, the move has really been in real yields. And I think that's the important takeaway here is that you're seeing inflation expectations anchored here. You know, maybe it may temper some of the enthusiasm because of how strong fundamentals are. I'm not overly worried about it. Yields have actually been trading in a really tight range for the last year and a half or so. Bond market volatility have been

quite low even though yields are elevated. So we think they stay pretty range-bound, and I like the moving yield. All right, Marcy, we'll see you soon. Thanks for being with us as we head right to the bell. They'll start clapping. We'll be read across the board, obviously, for everything but the Russell. Don't forget about poor we've coming in overtime. Always an important earnings report to keep an eye on, and then all roads leads to that inflation report in the morning. I'll send it into overtime with Mike Sanchez.