Closing Bell - Closing Bell 8/15/25

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

And thank you very much, Brian. I'm Scott Wapner. Welcome to closing bell. We continue to watch these live pictures in Anchorage now, waiting for President Trump to deplane from Air Force One. And you saw just moments ago Russia's President Putin arriving on site as well. We presume these leaders will come down those staircases onto red carpets and meet for a photo opportunity and some kind of arrival ceremony. It is unique in and of itself that President Putin has landed on U.S. soil. And that is a point of debate today as well. We'll discuss all of that and what really could be a historic meeting between these two leaders, what the outcome might be. Really, when expectations leading into all of this have been lowered by the president himself along with the White House, remember the president has already called this a, quote, feel-out meeting. The White House characterizing it as a listening exercise. The stakes, though, as you know by now, could not be higher. I'm going to welcome in our Amen Javvers, who's going to take us through what we expect to see over the next hour or so. The meeting expected to take place within the next 30 minutes,

about the bottom of the hour, and there have already been some changes in how this is all going to unfold, Aman. Scott, that's right. We were told this would be a one-on-one between President Putin and Trump. Now we're told it's going to be a three-on-three. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also going to participate in the meeting with Vladimir Putin, as his special envoy Steve Whitkoff. So that will be something to watch for. And maybe an indication if you're looking to read the tea leaves here that there might be more substantive at a detailed level information being discussed sort of below the presidential level here. So we'll watch for that. But Vladimir Putin, as you look at his plane here, has just become the first Russian president

to land in Alaska, to set foot on Alaskan soil. That's since Alaska was sold by the Russians to the United States back in 1867. And this is just the... the first time Vladimir Putin has been on U.S. soil since 2015 during the Obama administration when he attended the U.N. General Assembly that year. That led to a very frosty standoff between Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin over Putin's invasion of Crimea at that time and his actions in Syria. He hasn't been back on U.S. soil since then, and we'll watch to see what happens here. Of course, this follows up the president's meeting with Vladimir Putin back in Helsinki in his first term. And then we saw President Biden meeting with President Putin in

Geneva in his term in office. And now this meeting in Alaska on U.S. soil, which is striking to watch. It is. This will be the seventh such meeting between President's Putin and Trump. And Eamon, you know how this greeting looks that we expect to see within the next unfolding moments will be as closely parsed as anything else. They have had what I think could be accurately described as a cordial relationship over the years, maybe awkwardly so in the minds of many Americans. But President Trump has spoken more critically of Vladimir Putin of late, maybe more so than he ever has in the past. He talked about very severe consequences. That's a quote if President Putin refused a ceasefire. He said last month of President Putin as well,

he had gone absolutely crazy. It's not exactly the kind of language we've come, you used to hearing from President Trump, at least as it relates to President Putin. Yeah, and what a striking change in rhetoric. I was in Helsinki for the first meeting between these two men on foreign soil there. And at that time, President Trump said that he trusted Vladimir Putin more than he trusted U.S. intelligence, which caused a flashpoint of controversy here in the U.S. that he would say such a thing. You know, we'll see what he says today, but that rhetoric has really turned around in the past

couple of months. Trump came to office this time vowing to end the Ukraine war and ended on the first day. And he has since said that this has been much more intractable than he expected, much more difficult problem and expressed continued frustration with Putin, continued frustration with Russian military strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine and said that that is not helping solve the issue that Trump views very much as one of his key priorities as a president to solve. So you're right. That rhetoric has turned around and you'll watch for the protocol here I'm just looking at the bottom of those staircases that we're seeing on our screen Scott and what you

don't see is a military honor guard in full dress uniform we'll wait to see that what you're seeing right now anyway is American military members in fatigues at the bottom of those stairs that's a much more sort of martial you know active duty military base kind of approach to the meeting then the full honor guard with a band and that kind of thing that you might see in a more traditional greeting. This is a tense moment and we'll watch to see how much of a red carpet, you know, rhetorically

and literally the US rolls out for Vladimir Putin here. This is complicated as well, Amen, by the fact that you have two sides potentially looking for different outcomes here. President Trump wanting peace, as he has said, and President Putin wanting to win his war. How you come to some kind of middle ground in that difference will be

closely followed. Yeah, and we were talking about this in the last hour, Scott. This has become a war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia, just in terms of the horrific body count on both sides, which side can continue to field an army in the field is an open question. But it's also become a war of attrition in terms of the economics and how long each side can afford to operate. Russia, of course, facing extraordinary economic deprivation as a result of this. war, still managing to bring in revenue through their oil revenues, still managing to be able to finance an army in the field. Ukraine relying largely on the U.S. and European aid to finance its battle. And, you know, the U.S. here is in a position where the president has said he doesn't

want to continue to supply that kind of aid. He wants to get, quote unquote, get something in return for that aid. And so the question for both sides in this conflict is how long economically they can stay in this fight. Well, that raises a very important question of who has more leverage going into these meetings today. President Putin thinks he's winning the war. President Trump seems to undeniably be winning the so-called economic war because of the sanctions and the effect that they have had on the Russian economy. And the man who's left out of all this is Vladimir Zelensky, who is, of course, the president of Ukraine, not present for this meeting, but he has just posted to social media just within a short time from now. He says, on this day of negotiations,

the Russians are killing as well, and that speaks volumes. Recently, we've discussed with the U.S. and Europeans, what can truly work. Everyone needs a just end to the war. Ukraine is ready to work as productively as possible to bring the war to an end, and we count on a strong position from America. So you have this post here saying everything is going to depend on this, American strength here. So Zelensky sending a message to the United States that he wants them, he wants the U.S. side to hang tough in this negotiation with the Russians. But what that looks like, what that means, all of that is going to be decided in a closed door meeting between just a few individuals in just a short amount of time. Well, since we're waiting for both leaders to exit their

respective planes, there was talk about an event as we see President Trump here emerged from Air Force One and he's going to make his way down that staircase. We presume that President Putin will do the same and that at some point these men will greet. You saw the red carpet set up, a stage which we can only expect will be the site of photo op. But as we watch the president come down this staircase, Amon, it was said that he called Lukashenko of Belarus on Air Force One and then said they had a wonderful talk. He, of course, is one of the world's longest ruling dictators leading to some level of uncertainty coming into this meeting. Yep. And you look at Vladimir Putin emerging from his aircraft just seconds after President

Trump has emerged from his. So Trump, the first to set foot on Alaskan soil here as Vladimir Putin makes his way down the stairs. All of this presumably choreographed between the two sides very tightly in terms of the protocol here of who greets who and when. And, you know, whether each man makes the other man wait for the handshake, you know, all of that is something that both sides will have thought through very clearly. Striking to me, Scott, that you have this setup here. The sign says Alaska 2025, there's a blue platform for the leaders to stand on, which aides were vigorously vacuuming in the hour leading up to this meeting. But then flanking the stage are F-22 jets. American F-22 jets, noses pointed in toward where the two

leaders will be standing. It's got to be somewhat unpleasant for Vladimir Putin, at least, to stand underneath that display of American firepower. We look, Amin, as though we could be inching closer here. As President Trump stops and waits for President Putin to greet him, we have quite literally rolled out the red carpet for President Putin on U.S. soil, as these two leaders wait to meet again for their seventh time. It is the first meeting of these two since the war in Ukraine was started by President Putin. And this is going to be an extraordinary moment in and of itself. I said this greeting will be as closely watched and parsed as anything. President Trump clapping his hands there as he waits for President Putin. And when

they get close and have a handshake or whatever their greeting seems to be, I'm just going to let the pictures speak for themselves. I believe there'll be a photo opportunity on the stage that you saw being set up. I'd like to welcome in the Brookings Institution, the Director of Foreign Policy Research, Michael O'Hanlin, who is with us. And Michael, it's good to have you with us as they make their way towards the stage here. You can speak to the fact that we've literally rolled out the red carpet in a way that some said we should not have. Yeah, I think it's fine as long as President Trump remembers what he seems to have concluded these last few months,

that this war was started by Russia, that this war is being sustained. by Russia, that there's no justification for Russia's war, that it's a war of aggression, and that even if Trump is willing to be friendly and amicable and diplomatic with President Putin, and I don't blame him for being pragmatic, that we still have to keep a clear eye on who started this war because Putin is unlikely to agree to the kind of ceasefire that we've been insisting upon. And so we're probably going to have to apply more pressure. So nothing about today should change that basic fact. Otherwise, let's let them talk. And let's see if they can begin to move towards a ceasefire.

What do you make of what looks to be an especially cordial greeting between these two men? I have no particular problem with it. You know, I think back to President Trump meeting Kim Jong-un of North Korea in his first term. That was friendly. The year before, they were threatening each other. And I preferred the friendliness to the war-mongering. Now, ultimately, that led nowhere, and the United States kept its pressure on North Korea.

We may have to do that here and actually step up the pressure on Russia. But I have no particular issue with President Trump being friendly towards Vladimir Putin, as long as he doesn't forget what he's been saying lately, which is he knows Putin started this war, and Putin is the reason the war doesn't stop now. What does it mean to you that, as Eamon has told us, the mechanics of all of this has changed a bit, what we thought was going to be a one-on-one with just translators in the room. As has taken place in the past, will now actually be a three-on-three, and that the Secretary of State,

Marco Rubio, the special envoy, Steve Whitkoff, will be in the room as well, presumably, with their Russian counterparts. I think it's better for the reasons that you were getting at a few minutes ago with your correspondent, that it suggests a little more substance to the conversation. The number one danger in this meeting would be that Vladimir Putin sweet talks President Trump and then feeds him a twisted, warped view of history through Putin's eyes that Putin himself may believe, but that is still completely tendentious about how eastern Ukraine is rightfully rushes, if not the whole country of Ukraine. And I think when you have other people in the room, including the Secretary of State who's a smart guy, it increases the odds that the conversation

will move in a substantive way. Trump himself is smart, but he's also, I think, prone to these kinds of more emotional meetings, if you will, and potentially to being wooed and swayed by Putin in a way that I hope Rubio would not be. Amen, I'll come back to you as we now know that the president of the United States is in the vehicle, the beast, and he is going to head towards the inside of Elmendorf Joint Base for the meeting, which we expect to begin within the next 15, 20 minutes or so. Scott, I just wanted to flag for our viewers who may have missed it because it happened so quickly that there was a military flyover at the moment of the handshake between Putin and

Trump, American fighter jets swooping low over the scene, flanking a B2 bomber. And that is a flex by the U.S. military, to say the least, to fly that right over the head of the Russian leader. And you saw a moment where Vladimir Putin looked up at that V2 bomber and sort of nodded, sort of a Rye nod to my read on it anyway, almost acknowledging, like, I see what you did there, and I'm duly impressed. And then Trump, you know, escorted him off the platform. But that was, you know, a choice by the U.S. government to have that fly over right at that moment of the handshake. I can't get beyond either, Amid, as we look at these live pictures. Did I see President Trump and President Putin in a vehicle together? I'm not sure

I saw that correctly, but that's extraordinary in and of itself. It is. And you can only imagine the Secret Service headache sweeping the beast again after Vladimir Putin gets out of it, because obviously there's enormous security components to what goes into that vehicle. So this is simultaneously a warm greeting, as you were talking about, the warm handshake, the applause from President Trump in terms of the body language for Vladimir Putin,

the smiles, the escort, riding together, but also those F-22s pointed at that stage and the B-2 flyover were certainly symbols of strength as well. And so it looks like, you know, the president is showcasing both sort of what you might have to be afraid of if you're Vladimir Putin and also what you might look forward to in terms of a warm embrace. And then of course all the economic pieces that we've talked about that the president had said can entice Vladimir Putin to the table here. Michael, it's complicated, isn't it, by the fact that these two men are

looking for entirely different outcomes, as I mentioned earlier with Amon, one looking for peace and the other one wants a win. Neither one of these men like to lose in any negotiations that they have. Yes, but let's bear in mind that Putin is being offered a pretty good deal by Trump. And a lot of people

in the U.S. National Security community in Western Europe don't like that and feel that Trump's always been too nice to Putin and the idea of just basically freezing the battle lines, more or less where they are, and de facto conceding that Russia will control 20% of Ukraine's territory, and also that Ukraine will

not be invited to join NATO. These are pretty big concessions that Donald Trump, I think, has pragmatically offered the Russians. Some people would say it's immoral to do that, but we are where we are. Some people would say it's premature as a matter of negotiation because Putin just pockets those concessions and then haggles over the last 5% of Ukraine that he wants. But I still think that you could imagine a deal where Putin winds up benefiting in some ways, and yet we've still have made Russia pay a terrible price for the three and a half years of conflict, and we've still helped Ukraine survive as a sovereign nation. It's not going to be an outcome that everybody would love, and it's not the maximalist ambition that Putin had when he started this

war, but he still winds up successfully stealing 20 percent of Ukraine and keeping Ukraine out of NATO. So I think there is a basis for a, you know, sort of hold your nose, tolerate a really bad deal, but still one that's better than an ongoing war, where both sides could wind up better off than they were before. Is the lowest hanging fruit today, so to speak, some level of nuclear agreement that these men can get their arms around and President Trump can walk away with some level of victory? I suppose, but, you know, we haven't really talked about this summit as being about extending the new Star Treaty, which most Americans probably have either never heard of or forgotten about by now,

and it's not even really in effect. And it doesn't really do that much for the future because it doesn't include any limits on China's nuclear forces. So, I mean, I would still prefer to have new start revitalized and extended, but it's less valuable than it used to be, and it's not exactly what we've been talking about in regard to this summit. So I don't see that as a acceptable sort of consolation prize. I think this summit has to start a meaningful process of negotiation towards a ceasefire, a durable ceasefire in Ukraine. And I don't think that's going to be concluded today, but I hope this can be a first step. Let's reset some of the theater. If we

could of what we just witnessed, part of which we're showing you on the left side of your screen here. That is President Trump, President Putin, walking down their respective red carpets, meeting there for what can only be described as a very cordial handshake, making their way to a stage for a photo op before going into a room at the joint base there for their seventh get-together. Amen, we heard the president leading up in the days prior to this saying that President Putin wants to make a deal, we've discussed a deal for what, being the principal question as we figure we're 10 minutes or so out from an actual meeting taking place. Yeah, and as you watch the two leaders just a couple moments ago, riding in the beast together,

the presidential limo, you just do want to be a fly on the wall inside that vehicle to hear what they're talking about, because that is the big question. Is there something that the U.S. government can put on the table here that Russia would accept that could kind of sweeten the deal because all of the all of the mechanics of you know land transfers and the rest are so hampered by the the nature of the conflict right i mean if you look at a map of ukraine right now russia occupies about 18 percent of it including parts that they've taken going back to 2014 like crimea the parts of of land that ukraine could trade for that are so small that a land swap just can't possibly be a one-for-one deal.

So then you wonder, are there economic incentives on top of that that the United States could put in place? Clearly, pulling away those sanctions on the Russian economy could help Putin and could help the oligarchs around him. Maybe that's enough to get the deal. The president seems confident that Vladimir Putin is looking for a deal there as you look at the Russian military control in Ukraine, what they controlled before January 1st, And then that purple area, that very small sliver are the Russian gains after January 1st.

And they have made gains in recent days. The president said today that he felt like Putin was trying to take additional territory, even yesterday, in order to make this negotiation go as well as possible to be on the strongest foot. But Trump said on Air Force One in the way here that he felt that those aggressive moves by Putin over the past 48 hours are going to backfire and they actually make Putin seem to be in a worse position. Just to put some numbers behind it, since you just showed and referenced the map, Russia does currently occupy about 20% of Ukraine territory. And it is estimated that, at least according to some accounts, that between 70 and 100,000

people have died in that war, not to mention the resulting humanitarian crisis, which is full-blown to say the least. Michael, I want to come back to you, if I could one more time, about how. unique it is that we have welcomed this Russian president to U.S. soil. We have quite literally rolled out the red carpet for him, despite those numbers that I brought to you in his initiating of this horrible war. Are some things sacred? Should we really be having this event at this time, at this base, in any part of the United States? It's an excellent question. And by the way, I think, if anything, the casualty numbers you cited are too low. I think the best estimates that I've seen

are 1.5 million total killed and wounded, and out of that total on both sides, you can probably have at least a quarter million dead. So even more heinous behavior by the Russian president. You know, it does raise obviously some very tough questions. I would prefer that President Trump never have said nice things about Vladimir Putin on the campaign trail last year or early in his presidency in the second term. But I think his rhetoric lately, has been fine. And I'm personally okay with showing a certain amount of decorum and friendliness in order to see if there's the possibility of a negotiation, as long as we remember that we have to put more pressure on Russia should these talks fail. So, you know, if what happens

here is that there's no progress, no pressure, and then a lot of sweet handshakes and smiles, I think that'll be a bad outcome. But I'm prepared to see a little bit of friendliness across these two men if, in fact, that can lead to real progress towards a ceasefire and an end to this horrible war. I'm glad you corrected me as well. I misspoke about the casualty number. It is estimated around $1 million, at least, not the $100,000, of course, that I read. I have so many numbers and items in front of me. You're not wrong because there's always a lot more wounded than dead. And, of course, we don't really know the actual figures, but it's probably in the range of 200,000 to 250,000 dead, and another million plus wounded on the two sides.

Yeah. I appreciate you being with us very much, Michael. Thank you. Amen, I'm going to have you to stay around because we do expect to see a pool spray of the like once President Trump and President Putin are actually in the room and sitting there. We'll go to that. We're going to take a, you guys want to take a break? You want to stay with this? All right, we're going to keep this going. So I've got Amin with me. Michael, thank you. Let's bring in Stephanie Link and Bryn Talkington, who are with us as well. The big market news of the day, of course, as you probably know by now, is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally hit a new high, joining the S&P and the NASDAQ. It's been a minute, but it got there today, Stephanie Link, on the back

of United Healthcare, a stock that you've been buying, and Warren Buffett and Berkshire apparently has been too, along with some other well-known investors. And that was really all that was needed today because of the way that, you know, it's price-weighted, of course, the Dow is to get this to that milestone. Yeah, I mean, it was a great announcement when I heard it yesterday. And also D.R. Horton also so a great company. It's very humiliating that, and I'm very humbled that the stock in terms of United Healthcare is down as much as it is.

but I do think there's real value for the long term. Look, I think the reason the markets are doing so well, Scott, is because the economy continues to show very strong growth. And we're running at about 2.5%. We got really good retail sales today. We had good revisions. We had weekly jobless claims that were very low. So that's very supportive of the consumer,

which you know is 70% of the economy. We even got an empire manufacturing number that re-accelerated month over month. And in the face of the inflation numbers earlier in the week, which were sticky and they're stubbornly high, but they didn't accelerate as much. In the face of that, the expectations are still in terms of a Fed cut coming 25 basis points in February. Excuse me, in September. So I do think, though, that there's a lot we have to get through. We have to get through this whole issue here with Russia. We have to see if they make progress if they do a little bit of progress. I think that's exciting and interesting. Then we have

to get through Fed Powell next week at Jackson Hall. And then we have to get through more economic data. But we're handling it really well. With all of this noise, we're growing at two and a half percent and earnings are coming in better than expected. And I think that's what the market is paying attention to in addition to it also broadening out, which is very encouraging. We're handling it well to use your words, I think, Bryn, because we have these expectations of interest rate cuts. We're going to get Jackson Hole next week. A speech by the Fed chair after what's been a noisy week, certainly on the economic data front. CPI, PPI, and some other data suggests that the inflation fight is ongoing and the Fed is noncommittal, at least

today, from the Fed speakers that we've heard to this point on how they want to deal with all of this and whether the market is setting itself up for any level of disappointment by the end of next week. So if you look at those two components, you know, the components of CPI, tariffs aren't really are not relevant to that. Owner equivalent rents, energy, eggs, you know, those are not affected by tariffs. The PPI, though, gave us a look at what is affected by tariffs. And I do think that, you know, Austin Gouldsby spoke on SWAC this morning, you know,

The concern that he said is like the worst case than area would be a statutory environment. I'm going to interrupt you if I could, forgive me, but we are now in the room, so to speak, and we do have President Trump, President Putin there, as they are going to begin this meeting again, what was expected to be a one-on-one with interpreters-only present has obviously changed to where you now have Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, Steve Whitkoff, the Special Envoy, in the room as well. We're unsure. Amen, I think you're still with me as well. We are unsure how long this meeting will last and what might take place in the aftermath, whether there's

going to be some form of news conference or a lunch, a bilateral lunch of any kind, but this is going to be different from what we expected it to be at the outset. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, you wonder with the addition of these other folks, you know, Marco Rubio and Steve Whitkoff, If that implies that, you know, there's a deeper level of nuanced, detailed discussion that's going to take place in this room, or if that's just designed to make sure that the U.S. side has the same number of officials as the Russian side has. We did see the two leaders, you know, in a striking image riding together in the presidential limousine, sort of seeming to share a laugh and just a warm relationship as they rode in the president's car over to this venue. Now we'll wait and see what happens. They're going to go behind closed doors. There you see the be. And there you see the closest shot that we have of the two men, Putin appearing to be laughing. President Trump appearing to be speaking to him a wave there from Putin.

So a very upbeat beginning to this meeting. And clearly, the tone that the president wanted to send here, if you look at the choreography, was both a tone of welcome and friendliness, but, you know, with some steel to it, with that B2 overflight and with the F-22s perched on either side of the two leaders as they had that greeting. So we'll wait now. We don't know whether there's going to be a joint press conference at the end of this. The expectation was that if things go well, we'd see the two leaders briefing the briefing reporters at the end, many hours from now, potentially. If they don't go well, possibly we'll just see Trump on his own.

But President Trump has said he'll talk to reporters when it's all over. We'll see if it's started with a bit of a charm offensive, if you will. And the president of the United States thinks that might produce some level of results, even in what we've been. mentioned earlier were tamped down expectations not only aiming by the president himself but this white house yeah i mean press secretary caroline levitt called this a listening exercise by president trump and president trump has gone out of his way to suggest and even did it in a clip that's been released by fox news of his interview uh with them on air force one on the way to this meeting uh saying that you know uh ultimately it's not for him to make a deal on behalf of

the ukrainians vladimir zalinski is not here uh and president trump can't concede Ukrainian territory that Vladimir Zelensky doesn't want to concede. So there is the practical reality that he can't get to a final deal here. And the president has suggested that this is a preview to another meeting where we'll have all three leaders, presumably, maybe Europeans as well, and hash out some kind of final ceasefire here. But could we see a ceasefire today? Could we see some kind of gesture toward peace from the Russians?

anything is possible. This is sort of wide open, and the White House has been letting us know that all week. Are you hearing anything, I know you mentioned earlier, you know, the idea that if, you know, the president doesn't get what he wants or feels frustrated that he could walk at any time, there is some degree of speculation that he not only might not walk, but he might be willing to stay even longer in the possibility that there could be some meeting with. Zelensky. Look, President Trump, you know, thinks on his feet, and we've seen him walk out of international meetings before, and we've seen international meetings go much better than expected before.

We've seen him, you know, lecture international leaders on a world stage and embarrass them in public before. I mean, this is a president who shifts tactically for whatever he thinks is his best interest or the U.S.'s best interest in the moment and is willing to do that. So there's no question that other presidents might have been sort of constrained by protocol and rules that this president's not constrained by. I think if he felt there was a deal to be had here, he'd stay another day, he'd stay through the weekend, if he felt it was really on the table. And if he felt in some way offended or insulted by Putin, I think he would walk. So I think, you know, there's a huge range of outcomes with this meeting that might not exist in another administration where things would be much more buttoned down and much more agreed to in advance. before you'd see any kind of world leader meeting like this all right amen thanks for

your insight your reporting and your expertise here we've leaned on you a lot and we will in the hours ahead to as this meeting now is underway the reason why we stopped showing you pictures from in the room the media was removed as this meeting does begin the seventh such between President Trump and President Putin I'll welcome back in Bryn talking to in Stephanie Link Bryn just a note on all of this in terms of market risks feels like we've almost eliminated geopolitics once you get past the issue of trade 100% agree i don't think the market i mean i think of anything if any any type of positive outcome that's a positive for the market

but i don't think there's any negative outcome that's going to come that would affect the market on monday next week from this meeting you know step this broadening trade that you spoke about It's important to discuss here because it looked like it could have durability to it after fits and starts and fits and starts. And here we are, I find questioning it once again, because as we've taken a so-called jumbo rate cut off the table, and I don't think anybody now expects Chair Powell to say anything regarding that next week, that here we are once again wondering whether that trade that you so believe in can really work. But we are taking a lot of things off the table, right? I think you're in the seventh inning with regards to tariffs. At least we know a lot more today than we did back in April. The geopolitics,

as you mentioned, I mean, it's kind of, we don't know what's going to happen with this weekend or even today, but it is calming down even in the Middle East. We know about inflation. It's sticky, but it's not runaway. It's nowhere near 9.1%, which is what we saw three years ago. And the Fed, well, we're going to hear from Powell next week. And we're all thinking he's going to be dovish. And if he's not, we're going to see some volatility, no question about it. But the markets are still expecting at least a 25 basis point cut in September, as I mentioned. Maybe they don't do more. Maybe they do more. But the point being is, we actually don't even really need it at 2.5% GDP growth and 10% earnings growth, right? And as you mentioned, like the

broadening out, yeah, it's important that, you know, tech has done well, come, service has done well, financials, industrials, utilities. All of them are up anywhere from 9 to 14, 15%. I think what's going to happen is you're going to start to see discretionary also now start to do well, which is pretty much flat on the year because of what I mentioned earlier that the consumer is in pretty good shape. And oh, by the way, without even any kind of ceasefire with regards to Russia, oil prices are down 11% year to date.

natural gas prices are down 24% here to date. That's also really good for the consumer, and that's important. Brin, we love interviewing Steph because she's not afraid to be a contrarian. And she's not afraid, quite obviously, yet again, to take what might be deemed as controversial positions in this market, the likes of which, after you've heard from several of these restaurant stocks, several retail names, that she believes that that consumer trade has some legs to it has a rebound to it has some staying power to it do you buy that well i mean i listened to what she just said i don't think she was saying that she's going to go out and buy sweet green anytime soon uh or you know one of those companies i think i think

what's important though is like you have health care and energy i have done terrible like obviously i have energy exposure i also have some health care exposure through an et fowls that i am You know, those are the two outlier sectors as well as small caps. So I mean, I think Stephanie's right in terms of just there has been a broadening out when you look at the sector level, but you still have health care and energy and small cap have been incredibly negative or negative for the year. And so I think within especially energy and health care, you're going to have to have an event occur for both of those to actually start ramping up. And I think as it relates to health care, I know the White House is planning to come out and address the pharma companies. They still haven't come out on that.

So I think until that clearing event happens, I still think, like, pharma in particular will still be under pressure. All right. Ladies, we'll leave it there. Bryn, Steph, thanks so much. We'll see again soon. Good weekend, do you both. Thanks for helping us along here. We're just getting started.

Up next, Steve Leesman, standing by with the very latest ahead of that big Fed summit next week. We've been talking about. Plus, Apollo chief economist. Torsten Slob will join me at Post 9, and we want to show you some pictures from moments ago once again. President Trump and Putin sitting down in the room where it is happening at this very moment. We're back after this. I want to show you those pictures from moments ago. That is the greeting between President Trump and President Putin, the red carpets for each

men literally rolled out as they greet. It is their seventh meeting, and it is currently underway inside the joint base in Anchorage, Alaska. Not sure how long it will go, but we will certainly keep you updated with any developments that we do get. Another big event happening next week, the Fed holding its annual powwow and Jackson Hole amid questions about what they'll do with interest rates this fall. Steve Leesman talking to more Fed officials today and joins us now. I'm not sure we have any clarity from the multitude of officials that you've spoken with yourself, and we've heard from this week. Yeah, Scott, I've been to, I don't know, 20 of these summits,

and they head into this annual economic summit in Jacksonville next week with, I would say, unprecedented pressure, essentially from the president to cut rates and unprecedented uncertainty about what they ought to be doing, whether or not they actually should cut interest rates. The theory that tariffs are a one-time price increase, that's true for one and done tariffs. And these haven't been won or done. And so we're trying to grapple with this idea of, is this going to be a persistent inflation shock? Among voters we've heard from a talk to this week, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmidt,

along with St. Louis's Alberto Mussolum, seemed to lean towards a September hole, though. New data could change that before the September meeting. Fed Governor Chris Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision, Mickey Bowman. They've already dissented in favor of a cut in July. Probably want one in September. Fed Chair Powell, he hasn't spoken since the big downward revision to jobs and firm inflation reports. He is scheduled to speak next week. Take a look.

This is interesting. Futures markets maintaining certainty over September cut, but doubts are really creeping in here. The September contract trades within 84% probability of a cut, but a 16% chance of a hold. That's a high for this contract. In fact, confidence now only in a second cut in December, saying goodbye to the third. We're going to have full coverage from Jackson Hole, Scott, beginning Wednesday, all of which hopefully brings some clarity. But some years, the view of the mountains is clear, but, you know, some years it gets hazy when there's wildfires out there, Scott. It does.

I want you to stay with us, too, Steve, if you would. I want to welcome in Torsten Sloke. He's partner and chief economist at Apollo. He's here with us at Postnights. Good to see you. Welcome to our program. Thanks for having me. What does pretend Fed President Sloke do in September?

What would your vote be? Well, the challenge here is that the dual mandate is, of course, very torn. On the one hand, inflation is going up, as we saw in the PPI data. And when inflation is going up, the Fed should be hiking. On the other hand, the employment report for July was very weak, which says the Fed should be cutting. So where do they want to put their weight in the dual mandate? Do they put more weight on inflation having gone up more recently, or do they put more weight

on growth slowing down? The dot plot is telling you, and that would be my vote, that they should be cutting. The dot plot is telling you that we are expecting cuts to come along over the next. several years. But the question is, as Steve is saying, how quickly is that coming? And at what magnitude should we expect that for the rest of this year? So to make sure I understand, I mean, the bottom line of what you just said is that you think they should be cutting. Why aren't more Fed officials coming out more publicly and more forthcoming towards that perspective? Because I think that they are putting more weight on this inflation risk, that there's simply more inflation in

the pipeline coming from PPI being so strong. And when pipeline inflation is high, it ultimately translate into higher consumer prices. Steve, you know, I thought we had moved from believing that they were going to be more concerned about inflation being sticky to airing on the side of labor market caution. And if there was any fall out there that they would cut rates, Mr. Sloak next to me here suggests we may have moved the needle on that a bit. First of all, I thought you put Torsten on the low. list. Maybe now he's the 12th candidate when you asked him what Fedger. Taurus's luck would do.

I don't know if you have the power to do that, but you might, Scott. You're pretty influential. Listen, I feel like if folks were paying attention, they weren't sure about the move that you just characterized there, Scott. Yeah, the bigger visions were a big deal, but we did $73,000 in the month of July, and that may be the right run rate here. And nothing has. And nothing has. has really clarified, especially on the inflation side, I feel like the market talked itself into something without really listening to the Fed. They thought they had two votes,

but they didn't go to figure out if they had 10 more. And I'm telling you, I can't tell you if you have another, what do you need to do? You need five more votes. I'm not sure you have it. And I made a point in my presentation, Scott, earlier saying, Powell hasn't spoken. That's really important, because I think

that there are those on the committee ready to back the chair for the sake of backing the chair because they agree with him. And they're waiting to hear. You know, Musalam, he sounds pretty hawkish to me. Schmidt, pretty hawkish to me. That's two votes right there against. I'm not sure where Jay Powell is. I won't say you one thing. And I'm interested in Torson's thought on this. Jay Powell promised us one thing. He promised he would leave as Paul Volker, not as Arthur Burns. And I believe in that promise from him, in that. He's going to work till his last day to make sure he doesn't leave with inflation. How would you respond to that?

Well, one year ahead, inflation swaps today are trading at 3.3%. That's telling you that the market is already today pricing that inflation in one year's time will be way above the Fed's 2% target. So that's why this very tense debate on the FMC is so critical at the moment. And I totally agree with Steve. What Powell says next week is absolutely critical. We could get a very difficult situation with a significant amount of, of dissents on the committee in the September meeting.

And that would be, of course, very unusual. We already had two dissents at the last meeting. And if we start to have three, four, five dissents, then the committee will look very torn by any measure from a historical perspective. Well, it's funny you bring that up, because that's where I wanted to go to next. You already have two influential dissents.

Fed governors, right? With respect to presidents, it maybe carries a little more weight when a couple of Fed governors are the ones who are dissenting. It was the first time in like, three decades that you had that scenario. Chair Powell doesn't want to be put in the position where it starts to look bad, where he's the one leading the charge, pushing back against

the dissenters. Exactly, because his job is to create consensus on the committee. His job is to corral everyone together and say, this is our view. And I go out of the press conferences and I talk about that view. If you now get to a situation with three dissents, maybe four dissent, it will be a very difficult press conference because then people will begin to say, well, that's your view. What do you think about the dissenters? What is their representation of this view at the press conference? That's why this dissent issue is really, really important, and we haven't seen this for a very, very long time. How are you thinking about that, Steve? Chair Powell doesn't want this to get ugly. He does not. I will say this. My thinking is

sort of changing as I'm listening to Torsten, as it often does when I read his reports. I had thought it was possible for Powell to go into next week and really not give us an economic outlook disappointing almost everyone out there. I think we've reached a point where he may not be able to do that anymore. I think he does need to provide at least some interim guidance and give us some reaction. The events that have happened over the past month have been important. The market has taken some pretty strong stands. And if he's thinking no cut, I think he needs to provide some guidance to the market to that effect. If he's thinking cut, then okay. And whether or not it's one cut or two cuts. It is interesting, Scott, to see how much the market has backed off.

I don't know if you remember me coming on your show and saying, Scott, it's three cuts now. And now it's down to kind of barely two, right? We do have that second cut built in, but it was September, October, December. Now it's September with some doubt and December with some doubt. So they backed off a little bit. And I think some of the effect of the talk that The Fed talk this week has been to kind of ease off the markets, and it took them a couple days, but the market's now listening. You put a note out this morning, Torsten, which has gotten some play, looking at the price action in FedEx shares.

Is that suggestive to you that the economy is going to go through some sort of trade-related slowdown globally? Well, and that's, of course, what we're all monitoring so carefully. But the risk, of course, is when you have a trade wall, we shouldn't really be. surprised if trade starts to slow down. So that's why the quantification of that risk is incredibly important. Namely, is that quantification so big that it ultimately ends up slowing things? If you look at the Yale Budget Lab, they have a simulation of asking what are the implications of raising the effective tariff rate from 3% to 18%? And they only show that the GDP goes down

by 0.7, so not a recession. But to answer your question, I think it's a very, very critical for markets. Namely, if there is a sharper slowdown coming, especially of course in trade, it does raise more significant downside, raise to the growth side of the Fed's dual mandate. I appreciate you so very much coming here, course, and thank you. Torsten Sloke from Apollo. Steve, our thanks to you, as always.

Steve Leesman, we'll see, of course, next week out in Jackson Hole. More closing bell straight ahead. Closing about Market Zone, CBC Senior Markets commentator, Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of this trading week. What do you take with you over the weekend

as we head into what's going to be another big week, especially with Powell out in Jackson Hole. Sure. We're escaping the week with the S&P up more than 1%. It's just really sat on this level, which is where it closed on Tuesday. So it's almost as if the market is saying we celebrated the fact that the CPI is potentially not going to get in the way of a September rate cut, but we're not too much convicted about anything else beyond that level. I do think you saw some rotations within this market that suggest there was room

for some of the laggards to work. and some of the overheated stuff to cool off. That's probably a net positive. And next week, you know, I think there's a decent amount of swing in terms of how sentiment can go based on what happens from the retailers combined with obviously what Powell has to say. I'm not sure he really wants to muscle around the market perception, but it might not take much.

I mean, bond markets have been in this comfortable zone for a little while. We'll see if they're just lulled or if they've got it right. I thought we might, you know, we were tracking for this new high for the Dow. We did hit it, but we have faded a bit because it was a bit lopsided in the fact that it was a united health story and everything else was kind of picking up the rear. And we've faded enough that we may not get this record close for the Dow. I'm a little attentive to a couple things. So you have the Dow doing exactly that, right? The real last high was in December and we just touched it today.

The equal-weighted S&P did something similar this week, which was a poke to a, a, a, a, a, a, a small. slight new high, and then it rolled a little bit. So I don't know if that just means there's general fatigue out there where four plus months into this rally, you're up 30-some percent from the intraday lows, or if it means the market's going to have to pick its spots from here, and it's going to have to get a little bit of reassurance about kind of Goldilocks plus Fed rate cuts in the next month or so. All right, you have yourself a good weekend. Thanks for everything this week once again. That's Mike Santoli. That does it for us. Bell's going to ring us out. Dow is going to finish green.

It will not be a new closing high. It will be red in other areas of this market. Have a good good day. Closing about Market Zone, CBC Senior Markets commentator. Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of this trading week. What do you take with you over the weekend as we head into what's going to be another big week, especially with Powell out in Jackson Hole? Sure.

We're escaping the week with the S&P up more than 1%. It's just really sat on this level. which is where it closed on Tuesday. So it's almost as if the market is saying, we celebrated the fact that the CPI is potentially not going to get in the way of a September rate cut, but we're not too much convicted about anything else beyond that level. I do think you saw some rotations within this market

that suggests there was room for some of the laggards to work and some of the overheated stuff to cool off. That's probably a net positive. And next week, you know, I think there's a decent amount of swing decent amount of swing in terms of how sentiment can go based on what happens from the retailers combined with obviously what Powell has to say. I'm not sure he really wants to muscle around the market perception, but it might not take much. I mean, bond markets have been in this comfortable zone for a little while. We'll see if they're just lulled or if they've got it

right. I thought we might, you know, we were tracking for this new high for the doubt. We did hit it, but we have faded a bit. Yeah. Because it was a bit lopsided in the fact that it was a United Health story and everything else was kind of picking up the rear. And we've faded enough that it, we may not get this record flows for the Dow. I'm a little attentive to a couple things. So you have the Dow doing exactly that, right? The real last high was in December. And we just touched it today. The equal-weighted S&P did something similar this week, which was a poke to a slight new high, and then it rolled a little bit. So I don't know if that just means there's general fatigue out there. We're four plus months into this rally. You're up 30.

some percent from the intraday lows, or if it means the market's going to have to pick its spots from here, and it's going to have to get a little bit of reassurance about kind of golly locks plus fed rate cuts in the next month or something. All right. You have yourself a good weekend. Thanks for everything this week once again. That's Mike Santoli. That does it for us.

Bell is going to ring us out. Dow is going to finish green. It will not be a new closing high. I will be red in other areas of this market. Have a good weekend.