Closing Bell - Closing bell 8/19/26

Episode Date: August 19, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This make or break out begins with the break in yields. Apparently just what the doctor ordered for stocks, at least somewhat. There's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. We are green across the board for the major averages. There's the 10-year. That's certainly part of the story. We need to show you the 30-year, too, because that's where the boil has been. Not exactly a high-conviction move in the equity market today, but nonetheless, we're positive. There's the 30-year. I think that really tells the story of where we've been, and today where we are. Several breakout stories we are following this hour. Marvell's option with Google, sending that name surging today better than 8%.

How about Moderna and Merck after the positive trial results of their skin cancer treatment? Moderna up. Look at that. Better than 140%, almost 150. That's got to be around the highs of the day. Merck, no slout. either having a really nice day as well. Targets move after earnings we're following. Not too

shabby, up near 5.5%. We'll have reports on all of that coming up in just a bit. We do begin, though, with our talk of the tape. The state of the markets, according to one of the world's top investors, Black Rock's Rick Reeder. He's chief investment officer of fixed income and head of the global allocation team. Black Rock, he is with me once again. Welcome back. Thanks, sir. Thanks for having me. What a great time to have you. given what's been happening in the bond market, which at the long end feels like it's been screaming a little bit. What do you make of where yields were and what the Treasury did today? Listen, I mean, it has been the back end of the yield curves felt a bit untethered recently.

I mean, for a couple of reasons. Obviously, you had some elevated inflation. You know, there was some discussion about could the Fed, could Chair Worship have done more? Listen, I think really what's pushed rates higher is you have an incredible amount of financing that's coming. and not only financing. The AI paper. The AI paper that is just going to keep coming. Okay. And that's pressured supply into the market.

I think that is the big thing. Listen, what the secretary did today, you know, I think after doing the intervention on the yen, there is, it's pretty clear that you have a secretary of treasury that's keeping an eye on long-end interest rates. I think markets have to pay attention to that. Is it a huge move? It's not a huge move. The intervention, the end intervention wasn't a huge move. Yeah.

But clearly there is a disposition there about, gosh, We have our eye on these rates and don't want them to get out of control. There's a difference between a huge move and a huge statement. 100%. This was the latter. 100%. And there's optics markets. Look at optics.

We could debate, did you just cap a level on the long end of the curve? I'm not sure that that's right. But I think you have, there's more firepower at Treasury. I quite frankly think there's more firepower in terms of how you manage the yield curve sitting at the Federal Reserve. I think that is going to Jackson Hole. That's going to be interesting to see how they address that. But listen, I think the secretary is investigating a lot of things and saying, you know, how do I keep rate at a reasonable level given all the supply that's going to come? Well, I mean, you've got the election coming up, too, and the midterms,

that has to be somewhere in the calculus, no matter how much they want to, you know, talk about that. So how much difference will this move actually make if it's more a statement than a big move and for how long will it make any bit of difference at the long end? So when you take the actual real duration impact, it's not that big relative the amount of supply that's coming. But I think what it puts in people's minds, I saw the young intervention, I saw this, it does put a cap, and when people, you know,

there's been a big trade. I mean, a lot of people have curve steepers on, a lot of people have short the back end on. A lot of people have, by the way, long equities, short long bonds. And I think there was a statement there, like, be careful in how large you put that trade on. And I think you saw today a bit of scramble, gosh, I got to manage some of that risk. And I think that, you know, it's important. Markets move on sentiment.

They move on, like, try and interpret where we're going. And I think that I think the statement was significant. When you talked about, you know, maybe some of the reasons why we've backed up at the long end, you said, I think your words were could Chair Worse have done more? I'm assuming you're alluding to in his communication. strategy, his guidance, if you will. Is there a price to pay in the bond market for the lack thereof of communication? Is that in part at play here too?

You know what? I really don't depends on how you handle that. You know, there's been a lot of stories about disastrous performance. I actually don't agree with that at all. I actually think he laid out a pragmatic, we've got task forces to look at these things. there are some very complex issues. Are we restrictive on rate? We're clearly restrictive on housing. We're not restrictive.

We're not going to hamper AI, CAPEX spend. Inflation is complex. What's driving inflation today? Service is driving inflation. We don't have any goods inflation to speak about. These are all complex issues that he's going to take some time. He's going to take a look at it. So I don't think it was there is one thing that I think the chair needs to do over the coming weeks

and maybe Jackson Hole, maybe at the next FMT meeting. What are the metrics you're looking at? What is your reaction function going to be? If you saw this sort of data, and by the way, it doesn't have to just be core PCE. I actually think it's incredibly healthy. We're getting away from just one singular number, which can be skewed like it's been recently, and look at the broad picture of inflation. But give us some data in terms of what are the metrics you're going to look at,

and then the markets can, which I think is the right thing, the markets could price to that. Okay. So you're saying he does need to do a little bit more than he's given you and other market participants, and the markets in general to this point? That doesn't mean we need more forward guidance. That doesn't mean the dot plot is an effective mechanism. In fact, you look at over time, a lot of the communication we've gotten over the last few years hasn't been effective or hasn't been right in terms of where the world is going.

The dot plot, I quite frankly, don't find terribly useful, but the markets tend to move to it, even though they move around in terms of what they're going to do. So this idea, we need more forward guidance, we need more forward guidance. I'm not a real believer in that. I just think we need to know the reaction function. I just think we need to know what are you looking at? What is important to you today? Is it more inflation?

Is it more employment? Are you looking at, by the way, there's a series of indicators in employment? Are you looking at demand supply? Are you looking at a whole series of different indicators? To get some clarity on that, then markets can do their job in interpreting it and putting a price on that. See, all people playing the game want to know from the referee, is what the rules of the road, generally speaking, are, and we'll play the game as you allow us to play it.

He says he wants the markets to play the ball, not the referee. Now, the complicating factor, I guess, in all this is when the commissioner steps in, like the Treasury Secretary did today, and has an impact on what rates do. What does somebody like you do if you're supposed to play the ball, not the referee, but then somebody else steps into the... the administration of the game. So first of all, I think the referee is a bit of a misnomer. The Federal Reserve is very much in the business

of influencing what the interest rate structure is going to look like in this country. So they're not an innocent pie stander and not a referee on a game that's going on. So I think that is we have to interpret what the Fed is going to do. From my perspective, I actually think that if you don't have a prescriptive, we're going to follow CorePC and the markets have to look at the way I think Chair Worse described it well. The right side of the decimal place, the market's becoming maniacal about tenths of a percent

or less than that, I think, is overdone. Being focused on, gosh, are we in general price stability today so the Fed doesn't have to move the rate around constantly? Listen, core CPI today, three-month moving average is 1-6, 1.6. The six-month moving average is 24. That's okay. I mean, that's price stability. Part of why, I think, from my perspective,

I like the belly of the yield curve. Which you've liked. Yeah, no, I like to. We're a fairly consistent period of time. I don't know whether that's stubborn or boring, but it's been okay. I mean, you know, the back end hasn't been a fulfilling. It's certainly not a hedge. It certainly hasn't generated any price return, but I like the belly.

It carries well. You have a lot of room. If you believe, which I believe, the Fed will start to move to cuts next year. You do? Yeah, I do. Do you think the first move that they make, that Chairwurst makes is a cut, not a hike? I do. And so, listen, I think they're going to be on hold for a period of time.

I think the thing you have to wrestle with and the chair is going to have to wrestle with, you've got a committee that's hawkish. And so putting on a big interest rate trade today, I think for us, is very hard. I'd rather just sit in income, clip coupon, where am I most protected on the yield curve? I like the five-year point because I like the forwards there. The front end is okay as well. I just like clip coupon, and then if I can clip coupon and marry that to an equity portfolio and just keep consistent return, that's a better trade to be than like trying to pick, you know,

the back end of the yield curve. Well, I was going to say that. Did the best opportunity at the long end just disappear? That's a tough question. If you said to me, where is the direction of travel, given the amount of supply that still has to come to the market, I still think there's probably a migration higher in interest rates. I think we slowed the volatility of that. One of the ways you can actually take. advantage of this in the markets. I like to sell rate volatility. And so, boy, would we add interest rates if they moved up another 40, 50 basis points? Well, you can put that on today. And that's where I think is a better expression than saying, gosh, at this interest rate, I'm going to take a shot.

I just don't find it that compelling. How are you gaming out Jackson Hole, given everything that's been going on? So, you know, you got the feeling at the last meeting that the chair wasn't all that, you know, disappointed or uncomfortable with the fact that rates had been backing up a little bit. It was almost helping him do a job that they didn't really have to do themselves. Agreed. So now that that has come off the boil a little bit, the last two jobs numbers weren't great. Revision's not great either. Retail sales kind of weak. Okay.

How is that set up then for Jackson Hall? So I would say couple things. First of all, I mean, I think from a policy perspective, you're talking about the last few months of inflation have been soft. I mean, we talked about three-month, we'll be hours of one-six. Employment, we're hiring 20,000 people a month on average for last three months. Net of health care, it's negative. Listen, I don't think the rate story. I don't think it'll be interesting. Hopefully in Jackson Hole, what we're going to hear more of is, here's what I'm looking at, here's the calculus, that is we're going to transition the Fed to. Hear all the more sophisticated indicators we're

going to use going forward. You think about in the world of big data, the amount of forward-looking data you can get from AI, from all the empirical data that comes through the system. Like, I'd love to hear, I'd love to learn more about that. You know, from a positioning point of view, I mean, still think equities are going to be, are going to be pretty good shape here. And then, you know, we're just building an income and been running that trade. A couple more things about about the Fed, because we just got the minutes before you, you came on. And the chair talked about six meetings instead of eight. Yeah. Is that matter to you? It, you know, I think we're going to a better place when the chair says, if I have something important to say, I'm going to say it. I think

moving to six meetings, by the way, they've also talked about over time doing a couple of meetings that are deep economic and out of the boy, I mean, maybe I'm a bit of a geek about that, but I'd love to hear like some real sophisticated analysis of how the fed's thinking about economic conditions. So if those meetings are meaningful and they're really sophisticated analyses of data, I think that could be fantastic. So fewer but richer is okay. 100%. And by the way, I am a believer, markets should price to the data. And I do think that is a significant indicator for the Fed. So I applaud that as long as we understand, gosh, they're doing deep work.

They're doing forward-looking analysis. And then we can understand how they're going to react to that. So was it only a matter of time, do you think, before the equity market was going to pay closer attention to the moving rates? It feels like that's got better, right? We started to get to that point. Treasury is not naive to that. factor either, right? So something has happened that I think is significant. First of all, we've talked about for years. Remember, the tenure gets a three, it gets a $3.50, it gets a four, and people say,

oh, my God, this will be the end. I actually don't think there's a number at, oh, my God, if we get to a certain level. What has happened that is significant is now you think about this supply, particularly some of the long end supply, some of the AI, the hyperscaler, those yields you get, these real rates now are now an alternative to equities. Would I still buy equities versus buying long bonds? I'm still in that I like equities, I like the growth, I like the earnings. But you did last time you were here, say real rates were attractive. They are, they are attractive. You know, we're keeping some exposure in things like mortgages, some exposure in parts of

credit to take advantage of that. I just don't think taking 30-year interest rate exposure versus equities is a better expression today. So last time you were here as we, let's talk, let's move and talk more about equities. So of the AI trade, okay, you said that you said that you, you said that you, you were, you were here. of the AI trade, okay? You said that you had, quote, pulled back a bit and rebalanced when it came to companies directly related to AI. I think you were talking a lot about the momentum aspect of it and some of the memory names and things that have gone parabolic. Yeah.

And then it had come down and then now had done well again. Yeah. So what are you doing now? So that July experience was pretty extraordinary and particularly in things like memory compute, infra, energy. like now some of these equities are trading on multiples, particularly in compute memory, not just in the U.S., Korea, Japan, those are pretty, I mean,

so we've added some decent amount of that type of paper. You added it. You did. Yeah. And so those multiples, because we know we've got two, three, four years of committed backlog, boy, you can get pretty comfortable at multiples in the, certainly in some of them, mid to low single digits,

that I'm pretty certain that we're going to get return off of that. So we've added some of that. You know, I would say in the mega cap, we are neutral. You know, we've shifted some names around, but pretty neutral. But, you know, I still like, you know, more like memory, compute, infra, and some of the energy names. And by the way, every day they move around. You know, we do, in some of those names, you get to sell volatility alongside your position

and get paid an awful lot to lower your break even. Well, that's why you've declared this one of the best investing environment because of that very fact, at least in part because of it. I will say, Scott, this is the best, most exciting, most fun investment environment. And then I go home at night and I fall asleep immediately. It is exhausting. It is. There's so many. I mean, like today alone, like you said at the open, the cross currents, we spent a bunch of time today on health care.

This Moderna news is significant. So we started to look at the tools businesses. We looked at different parts of health care. like, boy, every day there's a new menu to look at. Do you feel like you're having to, you know, run, not walk to when you think about the AI beneficiaries that you may not have seen the full benefit of and from yet, things that maybe haven't performed as well, but will when we sort of get a catch-up on that topic? I mean, healthcare is obviously one of them, but.

So there is an interview that's coming out today that they asked me about, Who do you think the beneficiaries of AI will be, and I certainly had no wisdom at all about a maternity or whatever. The advances that are coming in healthcare are going to be extraordinary. And by the way, today, you know, God willing, this is pretty impressive in terms of what it could do in terms of the human condition. Like that, I think is super exciting. I will say one thing. I've never in my career felt like every day I come in and I feel like I'm prepared and I go home and I feel like I'm behind. and it's incredibly exciting time, but it's stressful because we're learning so much every day,

and I feel like I'm constantly on phone calls. What do you do with software? And by the way, I literally just did a call on different parts of software. What do you think of info? What do you think of SaaS? It's incredibly complex. It's fun, but it's tiring. Do you think we were too soon to declare software and SaaS dead?

It feels like the market has now kind of figured it out in terms of who the real winners may be and who then the losers? Maybe, but everything got kind of thrown out. 100%. So like everything, markets overshoot, markets react, and then think. Listen, I still think the margins generally in software are going to be more compressed going forward, but they're parts of software where I'm more intrigued.

Some of the data-related companies, some of the infrastructure cloud-oriented software, that I think you get pretty comfortable with, boy, there's going to be a business there for an extended period of time. But I think you've got to get underneath the surface. I think to make a broad statement on software generally is hard, because I do think these agents, I do think the LLMs will compress margin in a lot of software.

So S&P, as we have this conversation, is a little bit higher than 7,700. Yeah. It's almost like everybody is the boats move to 8,000 at minimum for this year. Yeah. Without, like, you never really talk targets or anything like that, but what seems reasonable to you between now and the end of the year, if the environment is as rich as you still suggests that it is.

And the earnings story is as robust as certainly I can ever remember it. I'd love to hear you on that too. You know, I think we were calling for it. So could you get this year mid-teen cyber return in equities? You're pretty much there. Could you get another 5% to 10% out of it? Yeah, I think so. Your point about earnings, we are watching a productivity revolution.

And people say it's AI. It's not AI. It will be AI. but everything that's happening, inventory management, customer procurement, predictive maintenance, like every company, if you look at their margins, like revenues are pretty good, you've got a 6%-ish nominal GDP, revenues are pretty good, but your ability to actually take your business, by the way, you don't need to hire a lot of people, if you can keep your labor force constant, grow your top line, and then you just see cash flow drop down. And that's a pretty impressive environment we're living in.

So it's hard to say, gosh, I don't want to own equities given your compound. those sort of REO. You still don't want the small caps? No, we're doing okay. Yeah, I think I say, listen, there's some good and I get, you know, some, and we've done a part of that question you asked before, a little bit more balance in the portfolio than we've had. You know, I think there are ways to get there otherwise.

Well, because the earning story is now broadened to such an impressive degree. Yeah. That's why all these other sectors look attractive. Yes, the only thing I think is going to happen is part of why. I believe the Fed's not going anywhere. We do think that economic data has been superb. We think it's peaking. And we think you're going to see some slowdown over the coming.

And by the way, this is not a pernicious. We're running at close to 6% nominal GDP. Can we run at 4 to 5? Well, that's still pretty good. But, you know, markets tend to look at the first derivative and say, okay, what's happening today. And you're seeing it, per what you said at the beginning, employing that some of the retailing data is okay.

You know, you had a big fiscal tailwind. And now you're on the other side of that. Still a good economy, but maybe not as good. And, you know, we have a great economy. It lifts a lot of those boats. All right. I so much appreciate this extended amount of time. Thank you so much.

Enjoyed the conversation, as always. That's Rick Reeder, Black Rock. Let's get to some of today's top stock stories now, starting with that groundbreaking news out of Merck and Moderna today. Extraordinary, really. Anika Kim, Constitino, following it all day for us, these moves that we're seeing. Wow.

Hey Scott, so this is a landmark day for both companies and cancer patients. And this is the first ever phase three trial on this personalized cancer vaccine. So let's get into the data. This MRNA-based shot in combination with Merck's Ketruda met the study's main goal of reducing the risk of melanoma returning compared with Ketruda alone. And the combo also reduced the risk of the cancer spreading to different parts of the body. The data validates this personalized approach to cancer treatment where the shot is designed to target and kill specific mutations in each patient's tumor.

An analysts I talked to today say that these results boost investor confidence that this shot could work across multiple types of cancer and potentially become a multi-billion dollar product for both companies. If you remember, Moderna is racing to diversify from COVID and bring more products to market, while Merck is trying to offset some losses once Ketuda goes off patent later. And we still need to wait for the full data from this trial. And we also have to see when these companies actually file for approval of the vaccine got. Okay, Anika, thanks so much. Really, really big moves there. Marvell also rallying in some big news today related to Google. Let's get to Christina Parts of Nevelos with those details. What's the story here?

Well, Google's bringing in a new chip partner. That's a story. The company expanding its custom silicon relationship, specifically with Marvell, a formal commercial agreement covering a range of chips that plug into Google's custom chip ecosystem, the TPUs, tensor processing units like inference networking memory, definitely broader. than the street had expected, which is why shares initially popped much higher than they are right now, but still up 9%. Marvell issuing Google a warrant for 59 million shares at $206.58 a piece. Over a million shares will vest within the first year of the deal, the rest in tranches. Marvell shareholders clearly aren't punishing those terms, given the stock, is higher. But this is really a diversification when CEO Matt Murphy has been promising investors for months on conferences, at conferences. Amazon, Microsoft are already on the customer list. You add Google.

It means Marvell now works with all four top U.S. hyperscalers. The pain, though, today specifically lands on Broadcom. Google's custom chip was Broadcom's franchise. Now, Marvell, I guess we could say, has a seat at the table. And Broadcom CEO, Hock Tan, told investors as much on the last earnings call. Broadcom was never going to keep every dollar of Google's TPU business forever. You zoom out, though, the message is pretty much clear everywhere. The big cloud players are spending whatever it takes on custom silicon as well.

as reducing the reliance on NVIDIA. Scott? All right, Christina, thanks so much for that. That's Christina Pratton Nevelos. Now, Target moving higher following its earnings. Pippa Stevens is tracking that action for us. What do we see here? Well, Scott, Target beating top and bottom line estimates

and raising full-year guidance with the quarter helped by nearly $1 billion in tariff refunds. Net sales climbed 5.3% while comparable sales grew 3.8%. And on the call, the CFO saying they're encouraged by how back to school and how back to college is going, noting, they've lowered prices on more than 10,000 items in the last year, saying that matters to consumers right now, with additional price reductions planned over the remainder of the year. This is all part of CEO Michael Fidelke, who officially took the reins in February's turnaround plan,

which includes more fresh groceries, dedicated displays for higher-end makeup, and more sports merchandise as a way to entice shoppers back to the store. Target seemingly the standout of what we've heard from retailers this week, especially with the positive guide for the back half of the year, Walmart, reporting tomorrow, offering another insight into the health of the consumer. The meantime target share is hitting a two-year high today. Scott? All right, but thank you. Pippa Stevens.

We're just getting started right here on closing bell up next to crypto comeback. Bitcoin breaking out in a big way today. There's the move. It's sending the crypto name surging as well. Today, McKeel, following that action for us. We'll talk to her next. All right, welcome back, showing you a live shot here. That is the White House, of course.

There's the president. meeting with leaders in the crypto currency industry today. As we watch that, can't see on your screen there, but we know that Vlad Tenove of Robin Hood is in that meeting. Brian Armstrong, of Coinbase, the CEO there is there as well. I think that looks like Jeffrey Sprecker, too, CEO of ICE, of the stock exchange here, if I see that correctly.

I think that's who that is, too. So there's some exchange leaders there and other leaders from the, from the crypto industry. Speaking of, Bitcoin having a nice move today. Today, McKeel is at a crypto event in Jackson Hole. Join us now. Nice looking live shot. Welcome. That's right, Scott. Hey, Scott. Yeah. And look at crypto stocks. They're surging broadly on hopes that this meeting between the Trump administration and crypto leaders that's getting underway now bears fruit for the Clarity Act. And this is really one of the final pushes to get this bill across the finish line before

all focused turns to the midterms. But the optimism on Wall Street, Scott, hasn't traveled to the Wyoming blockchain symposium here in Jackson Hole. Big name speakers backed out of the event, like the chairs of the SEC and the CFTC, which of course makes sense now. And meanwhile, the CEOs of Ripple and Cracken, among others, have left this event early to focus on D.C. and this meeting. Now, the people who did stay tell me that it's less and less likely that the Clarity Act

makes it to the president's desk. And the industry is working instead on contingency plans to continue in innovation within the current bounds of U.S. law. I spoke with Dinell Dixon of the Stellar Development Foundation yesterday. She told me she doesn't think there's enough time for clarity to pass, but she says that the SEC and CFTC are pushing ahead with new crypto frameworks. The agency just yesterday proposed a comprehensive set of rules for the asset class separate from clarity. Scott? Okay. Tenaa, thank you. That's Dana McKeel. Coming up, more on today's market bounce. Bond yields pull back from their multi-year highs.

High Tower, Stephanie Link, J.B. Morgan's Jordan Jackson. and stand by with their playbooks next. Welcome back. We're getting some new details on OpenAI's IPO timeline. Our Kate Rooney joins us now on the phone with her reporting. So what do we know here? Hey, Scott, I am just getting some details from an OpenAI employee all hands that happened just within the last few hours here.

The CFO of that company, Thera Friar, telling employees that Open AI will be a public company in 2027 or sooner. This is according to two sources. familiar with the matter who attended this meeting. Friar said the following, she said, from what I'm hearing, as you know, we are confidentially under file. This company did file to go public, I should mention. Anthropic, their rival also under file. She says there is a chance.

They pull the cover off that confidential filing in the coming weeks, and they become public in September. So speaking about their rival there, she says about their own IPO here, that's okay. We are running our own race to the IPO is not a finish line. She says it is a milestone, another fundraise. She points back to the record fundraise at the time, $122 billion in March, says it gives us flexibility. And then here's the line I mentioned, Scott.

We will be a public company in 2027. We may go sooner if our business continues to inflect. But either way, we'll do it on our own timeline. She also shared some new revenue numbers. These have not been reported yet. Quarter to date, the run rate in terms of revenue for Open AI was up 35%. percent. Enterprise in particular was up 50 percent and then Codex, which is the GPT side of the enterprise business that hit 20 million. So some ramp up there. It all coincides with a recent

launch of their newest model that was this summer. But noting some momentum in the business at a time, and that is a big question. There's a lot of competition. But that's the latest we're here in Scott. But that also sounds to me like a very direct response, if not counter. to some of the stories that were out, another one today suggesting they've been telling investors about sort of lackluster numbers, and that was hotly debated this morning. This feels like it's targeted towards those critics. Exactly. The timing of this, the Walshue Journal went out with a story that addressed some of the Q2 numbers they described it as tepid growth, and they talked about some of the operating losses here. I hadn't heard if she mentioned that by name, but the

undertone here is speaking against that thing actually here's the numbers that are the most recent which as i mentioned it's some of the run rate numbers you know doesn't mention profitability but they've been a company that is willing to spend at all cost to say hey it's worth it we're in the growth phase we're not focused on profitability she didn't say that today but you're right scott that the the timing of this does suggest that it's a direct response to some of the criticism that they've seen in the last 24 hours the other comment that you brought to us from from Sarah Friar is, you know, we are running our own race. I'm not sure if the market truly, you know, believes that's the case. But nonetheless, I'm wondering what you think, what kind of pressure

they do feel to actually go through with the IPO sooner rather than later. And you could think maybe a couple of different variables are at play. They know that Anthropic is sort of heading towards the finish line. I'm not sure how far behind in that whatever race they think they're running they want to be, or if because some of the headlines of late have been a little unflattering, whether waiting until some of the dust settles on that front would even be better for them? It's a great point, Scott. What I'm hearing is these executives need to tell that to employees so that they can

focus and hunker down and say, don't look over your shoulder. That's what a great coach would tell you, that you got to run your own race. But the reality is that both of these companies, whoever goes public, it's looking like it's Anthropic First are creating an entirely new asset class. This is a new group of companies that we have never seen before, that bankers and investors are going to have to value in an entirely new way, and the reality is whoever goes first is going to set the benchmark. I keep going back to Uber and Lyft, but it's the analogy the bankers keep using,

and that one is going to get priced off of the other, regardless of who the better business is, there's very much competition. There's also a big backstory here in that these co-founders, They all used to work together at OpenAI, the co-founder of Anthropic. There is some animosity here. We saw it spill over in the Elon Musk trial. These two CEOs, Dario Amade and Sam Altman, there's a backstory. There's some animosity there.

So as much as maybe your average company might say we're running our race, these companies, from what I've seen, very much compete. And it's in the forefront, although I think that's the right message you want to hear from an executive is, don't worry about the other guy. There's always a backstory in the Valley, isn't there? You know that better than most covering this arena. I'm talking to you from Palo Alto. I'm pulled over on the side of the road to bring you this.

Okay. All right. Right in the epicenter of it all. There we are. Kate, thanks. Of course you are. Thank you. Kate Rooney.

Well, the drop-in yields is giving stocks a bit of a boost today. Here to share how they're playing the moves. High Tower, Stephanie Link and JPMorgan Aset Management's Jordan Jackson steps to see NBC contributor, as you know. Hi. Good to have you both here. Well, this was an interesting move, obviously, from the, the Treasury today, I think it was just what the doctor ordered, even if, at least the stock

market thinks that, even if the gains today aren't so robust. Yeah, I mean, the equity markets like it, and there's more that could be done. I think short-term, it can stabilize rates, the 10-year or the 30-year, but I'm not sure it changes much in terms of the long-term, because you still have an enormous amount of hyperscalor debt that they're going after. And you guys were talking about you and Rick Reader were talking about it. That's the first thing he said. I totally agree.

Inflation is still elevated. We still have debt and deficit. So I think there's other things that are being played in the bond market beyond, you know, the control of what the Treasury can do. Yeah, I mean, he used the word when Jordan, when he was talking, Mr. Reeder, when he was talking about what's been happening at the long end, that they were starting to look a little untethered. That's sort of the last scenario that the Treasury wants to see.

So maybe it thought that now was the appropriate time to take whatever action they did, even if it was more in statement. than actual move, but the mere fact that rates dropped, the boil came off a little bit. If that's going to remain the case for a minute, what does that mean for stocks? Well, look, I think first this was a signal, not a policy pivot, right? The reality is this is a signal that there is a tolerance threshold for long rates, and that's 5.3% on 30-year. And so I think, you know, it's not a flow story.

What are we talking about, additional $14 billion worth of flow that's drop in the buckets? But I agree with Stephanie. There's heavy issuance. I think the bigger announcement may come from the Treasury refunding announcement when they potentially will need to increase announced auction sizes through 2027 because we start to really get through kind of funding issues as we start to move into the second half of fiscal year, 2027. Okay, so what jumps out to me, I think most of all out of your notes, because I haven't heard this from very many people who come sit on this desk.

You're neutral on stocks through the end of Q3. That's right. Why? Well, look, I think there's a lot of seasonality-wise, September tends to be a tough month. We've got the midterm elections. That's another air of volatility. And then I think this is kind of a short-term reprieve on the rate side of the story. And that's going to continue to be a little bit of a headwind to the market. But I think after that, I still think we're going to get a bit of a bounce in the fourth quarter. I think markets are primed for a little bit of a correction. You've still got a lot of money on the sidelines, wasting a check, waiting to chase the next market rally.

But people who are either more neutral or cautious or just downright bearish seem to be focusing on numbers that are not the numbers that are driving the market. Those numbers are earnings. And earnings are so robust that that seems to be trumping everything else. Certainly the market has been more fixated on that than the price of oil, the backup in yields, or almost anything else you want to throw at it. But does that not introduce risk in and of itself? All you need is a kind of micro-earnings miss come October, once we start reporting on 3Q, then the market, it has got some indigestion issues. So I think there's still some volatility around that.

Then I would also say, yes, the two Q numbers are spectacular, 48% S&P 500 earnings growth. However, if you were to remove the equity investment gains in private companies, that 48% drops down to 36%. I mean, you're telling me if you're giving 30-something percent that that's not good. And by the way, let's just take tech out of the whole thing. The numbers are extraordinary even without tech, even for the average sector. You're doing, what, 14% at least? When have we seen this level of robust and broad earnings growth?

Well, if you've got that baked into expectations, the market's got to do better. The company's got to be better than what's already baked in. And we've seen a huge repricing of 2026 earnings numbers, the pulling forward of earnings. And so I think the bar just keeps getting set higher and higher. And there's a risk that a couple of companies don't make it in a three-cue. Counselor, the courtroom is yours. Well, 10 out of the 11 sectors this past running season grew, and 7 out of the 11 grew double digits. So to your point, it's broad-based.

You want to take tech out of it, take tech out of it. But I got to tell you, why would you take tech out of it? I mean, that's the story and AI and the food chain. And that's going to continue for a long period of time. And I know some of the stocks have had a really nice run. So maybe you don't want to go and buy those names in tech right this moment. But I do think that there are other places you can go. You can go into financials.

You can go into energy. Materials are drilling really quite nicely. So I think discretionary. Between now and the end of the year, I think discretionary is set up very well to do well because the consumer is consumer. You're not neutral on stocks. No, gosh, no.

Haven't been for a really long time. I mean, I was buying in April. I've been buying all throughout the summer. I'm looking for opportunities. I did buy some tech in the early summertime, Envidia, micron, that kind of thing. But I still think that you want to be owning a broad-based,

And that's why equal weight is done better than the S&P market weight year to date. There's lots to choose from. We'll leave it there. We'll pick it up again. Guys, thanks. Good to have you both here. Coming up next, Oliver Renick, he's spotting some interesting options activity today in the crypto trade. We talked about Bitcoin's bounce.

We'll play some options action in the market zone, which is next. We're now the closing belt market zone. Mike Santoli and Blue Line Capitals Bill Baruch are here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Oliver Renick's giving us options action. And as always from the CBO global markets in Chicago, Michael, begin with you. Your thoughts on this day. I mean, the fireworks faded, Scott, from the kind of dramatic reactions to the Treasury's announcement this morning, yields kind of backing up just to where we were a few days ago. But it did manifest in the stock market as another one of these broadening days.

Semis down hard, everything else rising to kind of offset that. You have 1% gain in the S&P equal weight. It's now back pretty much at an all-time high. I didn't have my S&P equal weight 9,000 hat ready, but that's basically where we've traded today. That being said, I think a lot of the moves are starting to look a little kind of furious and desperate. If you just look at the action in Big Cap Healthcare, we know that's news-driven at the same time that banks are down 2%. I don't know. It seems like there's a little bit of churning waters here in the market. We'll see if bonds settle the question over the rest of the week.

I figure you'll tackle that at top of the hour, this move that we've seen in yields and what it means, right? Yeah, yields and actually across asset class, we actually have Elizabeth Burton from Fortress to help us with that. Ah, good stuff, less than five minutes. Appreciate that. Mike Santoli. Oliver, what do you see at the Cibo? Hey, Scott, crypto-related options were already exploding today with new proposed SEC rules, those treasury buybacks and market rotation, but actually some really big news just broke moments ago when the president mentioned the possibility of bringing hyper liquid to the U.S. That's the international blockchain-based exchange popular for perpetual futures. It's been making huge ways. and watch Per the ticker we've got up on the screen right now, which owns the international exchange. And then look at shares of Cebo, Myax and CME, the domestic incumbent exchanges whose shares just took a hit. Crypto Options volume was already exploding today, but this could

be a really big catalyst. Definitely keep watching this. Hyperliquid owner Per is up 28% right now. The blockchain-based settlement and infrastructure, arguably I think one of the strongest use cases for crypto to date. So Bitcoin believers getting some fresh life here today. All right. Good stuff. Oliver, as always, thanks for both shows today. Oliver Renick from the Sebo in Chicago, Blue Line Capitals, Bill Baruch. He joins us now. This is an interesting day, given the move that we've seen in yields. Good day in the market, albeit a bit muted. What do you think? It's a little disappointed that we can't get a punch higher in tech, really. the NASDAQ itself has struggled to go positive,

but we're getting some really terrific moves across health care, across financials, real clean breakouts in health care this week is exciting to see. So, yeah, everybody's talking about the market rally broadening, and that's what we need to keep fueling this. I like it, I like to see it, but I would like to see Tech join the party. Well, I mean, it's been partying. What do you mean? I mean, the sector's definitely back.

NASDAQ has been with the S&P at record highs. Well, the NASDAQ 100 is a bit off the record highs. It's struggling right now, holding the 50-day moving average. You know, from a trader's perspective, I don't want to see much weaker than this as the week evolves. I think there's some great catalyst underneath as we looked at Nvidia's earnings next week. I think they mitigated some of the circular financing fears last week. But semiconductors, you know, it seems like there's new news each day where I thought the Marvell and Alphabet news would be. help really fuel it higher, and the indexes itself hasn't really done much.

Well, maybe it's going to be more of a wait and see until we actually hear from NVIDIA. You can only assume that the numbers will be good, but we need to hear the guide and we need to hear from Jensen. This is true. And we've seen NVIDIA run up into the report many times. I think we're going to see that again over the next week. It is our largest holding, and we really bought more last week.

We really believe in it right here. But again, I don't want to see if the market, if you look across the board, and as a commodity trader, too, I see gold and silver rallying. I see the dollar weaker. I see treasuries rallying off the list, especially with the long end. You know, I thought this would be a good environment. We'd see the NASDAQ itself up 1% at least today. That's just a little disappointing. You know, the week's not over.

They could join later on. But, I mean, over the last few weeks, Nvidia has had a nice move. I mean, it's already sort of moving into the number. Even if it does nothing from here, it's sort of had a nice bounce back. Oh, absolutely. It's on the verge of breaking out. But, Scott, I want more. I want to see this follow-through now and lead up into earnings.

And that's kind of where my mindset is right now, too. But again, the morality's been pretty broad. You're getting the financials. You're getting the health care to really move. And names like Lily and Ab V have had a heck of a week. Amgen as well. Those are in our portfolio. We love seeing that.

broadening. I just want to see where the simies really kind of, you know, we had the rebound after the cleansing, but, you know, it hasn't done much more. We'll see what happens. Bill thanks. That's what we'll be. That was going to ring again. Big story today. Yields.