Closing Bell - Closing Bell 8/26/26

Episode Date: August 26, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And here we go. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner live from Post-Nine here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker break hour begins with what else? The countdown to Nvidia earnings. We've got it surrounded tonight. In just a moment, we'll be joined by our ACE reporter, Christina Parts and Nevelos, Dan Ives of Ives Yorkville, Doug Clinton from Intelligent Alpha, Humilist Capitals, Brian Belski, Nvidia investors, Bryn Talkington, and of Requisite Capital, Malcolm Etheridge from Capital Area Planning Group. I do want to first show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. We are mostly red, the S&P, and the NASDAQ, though, are trying to go green. Tech, obviously, a bit of a wait and see. Though some of the chip names are up today going in, meta's green as it settles with state AGs in that case over child safety. Apple also positive.

It now sets a September date for its next iPhone release. All of that takes us to our talk of the tape, all that is riding on what happens tonight. We begin there with Christina to set the scene. Hi. Scott, there's three things really hanging over the stock. One, the fear that Amazon and Google building their own chips and are starting to cut NVIDIA out, two, the credit market's unease. Morgan Stanley said NVIDIA credit now trades more like a triple B credit than the AA, its balance sheet implies, as NVIDA really just takes on more of the financing propping up its own customers,

and then three margins. InVDiv's gross margins climbed all through last year, then flattened, And analysts see it drifting lower as memory cost bite, which is, you can't see it as dramatically on the graph, but it's going down. Wall Street wants Nvidia to defend that mid-70s line and signal it can hold it in the medium term. A lot of investors, too, are hoping for a bigger buyback, but not only UBS, others too doubt there's much new to say there, since Nvidia just committed to returning half of its free cash flow this year.

So the real tell is what Invideo reveals about the commitments piling up off its balance sheet, the multi-year deals to lock in supply, power and demand, put a number on it, and the market can maybe finally price what's been a cloud over the stock just over the last three months or so. It's got it. Certainly has. Christina, thank you very much. Been down eight of the last nine days. It's a really good scene setter. As we bring in our panel, I'll begin with Dan Ives, who's sitting right next to me.

What's the biggest issue? Because Christina highlighted what appear to be several. Competition, the debt, right? The CDS, China, margins, infrastructure spend. How do you deal with all those going in? Yeah, first, I mean, competition, there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, and it's NVIDIA. And I think worries about competition. I mean, we see it from every enterprise that's going down the path.

The red phone goes to NVIDIA. And I don't think anyone's looking at any sort of second and third options, even though down the road there's competition. What do you mean? These other, the hyperscalers, as Christina laid out, they're making their own chips too. But I think I continue view that is three, four, five years down the road. For now, when we think about the first, second phase of the AI revolution, it's only about InVIDIA. Now, when it comes down to the debt, what we're seeing in the markets, just worries about credit. I think it just comes down to investors, tech investors, are underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution,

which is why it's so important in terms of as they show demand from Rubin, Blackwell, remember, this all excludes China. This is what all the tech sector is watching. Could we really be underestimating the demand? like this gentleman says. Do you agree with that? I do agree with Dan on this. And if you think about what the hyperscalers have talked about in terms of how much gigawatt capacity

they want to add next year in 27, the big four are talking about 20 gigawatts of capacity. To put that into context, $50 billion per gigawatt is the CAPEX load for these hypers, right? So that's a trillion dollars in CAPEX. We also now also have Elon Musk talking about 10 gigawatts that he wants to bring on. That's another $500 billion.

So if you kind of do the math, about 60% of that CAPEX goes to chips. There could be upside to Nvidia's numbers next year, maybe 10% or more. And physical AI. The question is, why is this stock gone nowhere, even when it is its forward PE is just above 20 times? That's the lowest going into an earnings report in five years. What's the problem with the stock? The company, I don't think anybody disputes what the company's doing, what they're going to deliver tonight, and what Jensen Wong is going to say about all of it.

it. But where's the disconnect? Considering the last few years what I'm about to say actually is quite weird, it's not, Nvidia is not exciting. Invidia is not exciting as what we've heard from Micron. That's the new kid on the block. That's where the momentum is. What I look at as a portfolio manager and running several portfolios is that Nvidia has been incredibly stable in terms of its consistency with respect to not only earnings. It's the epitome of the earnings-driven market, but more importantly when you're running money, it's been very consistent. in terms of what it's waiting was in the market December 31st to today.

Very different across the spectrum that you're talking about chip stock. So as an investor and you're looking at consistent fundamentals, it's weird to say that Nvidia is not the exciting stock anymore. How do they get it back? How do they get that mojo back? Well, they're going to get it back. Part of it is tonight they shot across the ball. In our view was the consortium with respect to putting that together on the debt side. Very clear, consistent and how they're going to get the money.

lacking in what Oracle was doing, and that's part of why Oracle was in the penalty box. So that was shot number one. Shot number two is going to be earnings. And then number three, Scott, is the focus on guidance for 2027. It's going to be really important. I'll tell you, Bryn, I'm glad we have you, because you appear to me to be, at least in this group, the most, if you even want to use the word, cautious on the near-term direction of the name, where you say 230 or so-ish is a ceiling.

and that this report's not likely to do anything about that. Why? No, yes. I mean, 2.30-ish is the ceiling. I mean, the stock of last year is up 15%. So, you know, with no context, that's fine. But with the earnings and revenue growth, you're not only going to see tonight, but we're going to continue to see this massive earnings and revenue growth.

It's like people aren't asking enough of the tough questions. So back to, I think it was Doug, about the 20 plus gigawatts of next year, well, what that falls on its face is that 60% of the data centers that are supposed to come online in 2027 haven't even broken ground. I'm in Texas, and with what Abbott's doing, obviously, the midterms, you're not getting a new data center lease anytime soon. And so there is this logjam, and he needs, the whole group needs to walk through. well, you can have all this demand, but if there's no data centers being built or not the capacity, well, then what happens there? I think also this $500 billion consortium, just like we have with Iran is a memory of understanding, and it's very vague. And I think that the market is telling us we kind of question all this, because you have to say, as an investor,

well, what could go wrong or what could take longer? And to me, with, what, 21, analyst, all bullish. I think average price target is 331. I just always respect the market. And this company's earnings crush it. Jensen is like one in a billion. But the market's saying just like enough. And we have more questions. I don't think anyone's really answering yet to have a catalyst tonight for the stock to actually go higher. I mean, you might as well be Dan I was as a president of the NVIDIA fan club. I mean, how do you respond to that? And by the way, that's not a bear. that's not somebody somebody who's negative on the company. Brinzoan owned the name as long as I can remember.

And it's positive on it, but still can't escape what appears to be the obvious to people who question what the stock isn't doing. And there's two things. I think Belski hit it. I mean, are there shiny or objects maybe in the near term? The view of micron, all the memory plays and whatever. But it comes down to like investors probably by 30, 40 percent, I think are underestimating the pure demand and scale.

I just see it from an enterprise perspective. You have less than 5% enterprise that have truly gone down the AI path. And this doesn't even include physical AI. And then there's only one godfather of AI. And as Jensen shows it quarter by quarter, I think we're going to continue to look back at this period and say investors are maybe going through this sort of gut check moment. They will prove it. We are in the third inning, maybe bottom in the second inning of the AI revolution. I mean, Malcolm, the shares have declined in each of the last four sessions following the third.

the earnings report. What kind of expectations do you hear what are the biggest issues in your mind after hearing from everyone on the panel? Yeah, I think Bryn is probably right. Invidia's earnings report is probably going to do more for its competitors than it does for the company itself. The two exceptions that I see here, we got the rumors about the possibility that Nvidia is going to increase prices on its customers by about 15 percent to make up for their own demand shortage issues with memory. And that could actually lead to some pull forward that we hear in the guidance for the next quarter and the quarter after that. So it's very possible that the street could hear really strong guidance numbers above and beyond what we were already expecting.

That would set the stock on fire. Also, we could hear Jensen Wong tell a story about how some of those early investments in spending money to help build up its next customer are starting to pay off and helping them become less dependent on Microsoft and meta as they're two primary customers at the moment, which does start to help relieve some of the concerns I heard initially about their competitors already having success, building competing chips and sort of weaning themselves off of Nvidia. So if we got either or both of those a strong case in that direction, both of those could be catalysts that send the stock beyond Brin's 230 target, but I do think that it's probable

that the street responds with the yawn on Nvidia and sends up the shares of a lot of their other competitors. What about the idea that you can be right in the near term? And this is a very big orange that we've, we've had. But there's a lot of juice that's been squeezed out of it. And eventually you're going to squeeze everything you can get out of that. And the time frame for when that happens is unclear. Wall Street Journal today writes the following. Quote, ultimately, Nvidia and other AI chipmakers are living on borrowed time. At some point, big spenders will reach a breaking point where their cash piles are smaller, and they're unable or unwilling to raise more money from debt or equity investors.

If AI turns out to be worth less than it costs, that is inevitable. How do you respond to that? I respond that you don't have full equilibrium from a chip perspective and demand, probably till late 2008, 2009 at the earliest. And I think it's one where there will be nervousness in terms of the spending cycle, but this is going to go on, we believe, for the next four or five years. through these gut check moments. And as Doug's talked about, we are still early days as it plays out and as the execution plays out. And I think when you think about physical AI and the future

of what I view, what the AI world is going to look like, we are, it's 1955 and you're building the Vegas strip to where we are today. How do you respond to that, right? That there is some degree of inevitability to all of this and all of you are the ones who are left trying to game that out and figure out what the real timeline is going to be. I think it's true of any investment where if the consumer demand changes and you're building supply to meet demand and that changes, that's always a risk for anything that you might put money toward. As it pertains to AI and Intelligent Alpha, we do use and we rely on these models to do our investment analysis, our portfolio management. And I can tell you sort of from the front lines, the last couple of weeks, we have had inaccessibility to even use some of the models because they've been beyond capacity more than we've ever seen since starting the company two years ago. And so the demand from a consumer and enterprise side is still very healthy for these models.

And to Dan's point, I don't think that's going to slow down at all in 27, probably not in 28, so we need to keep building into that. The issue of the buyback, I think, is interesting. All of a sudden, we're talking about it more. People are saying, well, they could do this. They could become an Apple-like company that has just a massive buyback, which has, in some respects, put a floor under the stock. Bank of America talks about it today. They say the balance sheet, not the beat. That's the real tell.

A better commitment disclosure caps the perceived liability. And a buyback pivot toward Apple-style payouts is the underappreciated catalyst to re-rate the stock, trading at a depressed multiple. I mentioned to you going in. We are at a forward PE of 20. That's the lowest going into earnings in some five years. You want a bigger buyback? No, we like it.

We like when companies buy back. And these guys can correct me if I'm wrong. If you go back and look at semiconductors traditionally, when they buy back stock, it's already over for them, meaning 10, 15 years ago, and you had Intel and Texan Instruments in particular became dividend growth machines. Invidia is not going to be coming that. I think more of a balanced side of things and what they're doing with their balance sheet provides a lot more credibility for their longer-term growth. And again, going back to the word that I used before, consistency. It's going to really help their overall operations.

Bryn, how about you? Do you think a buyback is, a bigger buyback is the answer? Do they need to become more Apple-like in that regard? Well, Apple's not spending and not doing all of this ecosystem build-out like Jensen. So I think it would go a lot to assuage investors of, hey, we're going to do a buyback. We see value in our shares. And I think Nvidia's never been like Intel. So I agree with Brian.

A lot of times buybacks are a peak. But I do think it signals stability. And so, I mean, I think that would be a great signal. instead of doing this $500 billion MOUs, whatever, that they're talking about, buy back your shares and just do something straightforward that we can all get our arms around, decrease your share count, and just go a little bit down that glide path. I do think the market's just overwhelmed with all of these numbers. You can't ignore the circular financing, whether it is or isn't. There's just too many unanswered questions. And I still go back to the power.

It's like you can't create power without electricity. and like that's not coming online. I just, that is still such an unanswered question that everyone kind of, not on the panel, but the market just like whistles past like it doesn't really matter. You can't just create electricity. And so that to me is going to be the next air pocket

is when this intersection comes together of all this purchasing, but there's no electricity to stand it out. That's the other issue, and it's been mentioned, it's some cases directly here, but also around the periphery of this story. the data center backlash.

And I'm wondering, Malcolm, how you see that, whether you think that's been a direct weight on this stock and whether it's going to continue to be that way for the foreseeable future, at least until we get to and through the midterms. I do, and that's exactly why I'm not interested in owning Nvidia for a buyback. You want buybacks, go buy Apple.

I'm more interested in seeing them take $50 billion of free cash flow, and instead of now investing in start, that will turn around and buy their chips, that game is played. I think they should innovate their way out of this rut that they have found themselves in for the last few quarters. I would love to see Jensen find the next parade and get out in front of it because the edge is really where the next phase of compute is.

It's actually on the device itself. It's no longer in the data centers and in the cloud. I've been saying for a while to the point that one of the folks on the panel was making, what happens when all of a sudden demand starts to wane because we've figured out a new solution because we were so supply constrained. We've seen it with China and Deepseek already. So I think it is incumbent on Nvidia to figure out what is going to be the next wave of innovation that they can supply semiconductor designed to, whether it's autonomous driving, whether it's robotics or something else. And these are all places where Jensen already has his tentacles

into. And so I'd really rather just see them spend all of that cash pile that they have coming in quarter after quarter on building out those areas instead. Is this data center debate some degree of existential threat to this story, at least in the near term? I didn't hear you mention that at all. I think the biggest risk to the AI revolution is the politicalization of it as we began to midterms. Data centers are the hearts and lungs of AI. So for every data center that doesn't get voted and you ultimately have to, go to other states or whatever. That's something that constrains AI. Why aren't we trending that way

as we speak? To Brin's point, I think we still, if I look from a capacity perspective, even if 30% of them gotten voted down, we still don't have equilibrium until 2020, 2009. Now, the longer term story, if that becomes, especially in the midterms, that's why this is a battle between Big Tech and the Beltway, but Big Tech, they're really the one that that create a lot of this PR problem to begin with, given a lot of the sort of negativity, taking away jobs and electricity bills going on. Are they doing enough to turn the tide? I mean, and frankly, I don't know what it takes to do that.

Save for, as I mentioned yesterday, Jensen Wong going on a, you know, a barnstorming tour of America singing the virtues of data centers. Yeah, I think they've started to change their tune. I think, is it too little too late because of the political arguments yet? But the reality is that for the first time in 30 years, U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And we can't, the politicalization of it is, right? I mean, that continues to be a danger. All right, guys, we've got to leave it there.

We're going to see what happens in a little more than a half an hour. And then we'll talk about it certainly on the other side of that. Everybody, thank you so much for being here and part of that conversation. It's also a very big night for software earnings. Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Octa, they all are reporting as well. Kate Rooney has more for us on that. Hey, Scott. Well, yeah, it's going to be a key test for enterprise software and cybersecurity as well tonight with some of these names. Starting with Salesforce investors are going to be looking for some accelerating growth in agent force revenue.

Company has really been trying to ramp up its AI business drive adoption there from customers. Analyst over at Morgan Stanley have been giving Mark Benny off some credit for the AI strategy, but say that Salesforce still has a bit more to prove on monetization. Stock down about 20% on the year. S&P for context, up roughly 11%. Worth mentioning as well, Scott. Salesforce has been rehiring some former Open AI executives that had left to go over to the AI giants. So we'll see if we get any color on that. Meanwhile, you got CrowdStrike as well reporting going into results off of record highs still about 60% on the year as fears over AI security have boosted the overall cyber sector. CrowdStrike has benefited from some of the growing customer interest in trying to merge security tools with AI readiness.

Seeing a boost in the overall sector, investors are going to be watching for more momentum. the company did beat expectations last quarter. And then finally, Octa, also in the cyberspace, reporting after the bell, did beat estimates as well. Last quarter analysts are looking at that install base and then kind of where it sits, the seat it has in the AI security layers are looking for a bit more momentum, a little more color, on how some of these AI tailwinds can help these names. Those are important reports as well, and the software trades look better. So maybe that raises the stakes.

Kate, thanks. That's Kate Rooney. We are just getting started here on closing bell. Coming up next, the return of the U.S. Open. We're going inside the world of tennis with Patrick McEnroe commentator. He's also president of the International Tennis Hall of Fame, and they're going to get a very well-known new member this weekend. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC.

All right, welcome back to the U.S. Open underway with the mixed doubles champions crown. Tonight, the main draw begins Sunday out at the Billy Jean King National Tennis Center. Here with a look at the Open and the current state of the game is Patrick. He's broadcasting, of course, for ESPN. He's also president of the International Tennis Hall of Fame. We'll talk about your newest member coming up this weekend. Pretty big guy. Yeah, welcome.

It's good to have you. Good to be here. Let's talk about the outlook first for the Open, because you guys are going to be talking about some really good storylines. You know, is this Novak's last U.S. Open? Algaraz is back? Is he going to be a little rusty? Sinner's not here?

Could we get a first-time winner? Those are pretty good things to talk about. What's on your mind? Well, let's start with Joe. because this guy's the greatest of all time, and it's still amazing to me that he's still playing at a very high level. I wouldn't pick him to win this tournament. He played one match since Wimbledon, where he lost and actually got sick during the match. But I think he'll play well, but playing well for him, I don't think that's quite enough at his age. That being said, he's had some big wins earlier this year, beat Center down in Australia, which was a huge upset.

Sinners out with the injury, having just won Wimbledon. I think Al Karez is the biggest X factor right now, Scott, because he did play in the mixed doubles, which has been going on in the last. last couple of days. Finals will be tonight on ESPN, played with Serena. He looked a little shaky, to be honest, in the first set of that first match, it ended up winning. And in fact, I just heard a little bird he told me he canceled his practice today. So there's some concern that maybe he played a little bit too much yesterday because the wrist injuries kept him out almost five months. So there's some rumblings that is he going to play in the singles, but even if he does play, I mean, he'll be the favorite, but not the overwhelming favorite that he would have been had

been healthy. So the other point that you made is a great one. Opening the door for some other players. We saw Sasha Zaraa win his first major ever this year in Paris, partly because of the top two guys being not at 100%. And now I look to Ben Shelton, Francis Tiafo, Taylor Fritz,

Ler N, Tommy Paul. These are all really good American players. Can one of them, please, can someone please finally win a major? Andy Rodick, the last guy to do it in 2003. To that point, you ticking off all of those names, speaks in many respects to where men's tennis, certainly, I mean, the women's game in the U.S.

is great. I mean, Coco's, you know, obviously winning slams. I don't remember us talking like this for a while about the state of American tennis, certainly on the men's side. Yeah, it's been a while. I mean, Taylor Fritz did reach a final a couple of years ago against Sinner. He lost in straight sets. And he's been the best American for the most part in the last four or five years up until this year, where Ben Shelton has really come into his own, won one of the big events this summer up in Canada, defended the title there. I love his moxie. I love his big serve.

He's got the major firepower. But what I really think has made the difference for him the last couple of months is his return to serve. His all court game has looked a little bit better. If he can put all that together, I guarantee you one thing, Scott. The crowd will get behind him in a big way because he's electric to watch and he feeds off big crowds. You picked Sriontek to win on the women's side. Why?

I like the way she looked this summer in Canada. She was playing with a little more margin of error on her shots. I think that's the way she should play. She was always a great frontrunner and someone that could just hit you off the court. But when things started to go a little awry, she could hit herself out of the match. I think she's playing well. I don't think she's the favorite. I think Savalanka going for the three-peach.

She'd be the first female player to do that since Serena did it. And I think Cocoa Gough certainly has played well. She won in Cincinnati. She's looking good. But I'm going to lean towards Fianntick. But I think there's five, six women theoretically that could win this thing. Let's talk about the business of the game. But let's first do it through the prism of the mixed.

doubles event, which I mentioned, you're going to crown a champion tonight. But essentially that's done. You're selling out the building in days you would never draw people there. It's made the U.S. Open a three-week event instead of a two-week event, and with that, more money, more money, and more money. Correct. And I think tennis sometimes takes some heat for that, for the ticket prices, for the honey deucees, $23 to pop.

But it's popular, just like other sports, just like entertainment events. And I think, yes, I said this last night on ESPN, during the Federer. return to Arthur Astridan, which is a fun event and exhibition. My brother was part of it, too. Yep. That it's really, to me, officially become a three-week event. You had 24,000 people inside the stadium last night, not to mention it's got thousands others on the ground last night for an exhibition match and for the mixed doubles as well. So they have the mixed doubles tonight starting at 7 o'clock. That'll be live on ESPN.

And so there's no doubt that these events are becoming more and more successful. And the players, by the way, wanting, as they should, a little more piece of the act. Well, I was going to ask you about that's sort of the elephant in the room. We're all sitting here watching all of this incredible success, especially for the slams. They're the ones that are killing it. Correct. How do the players get more, a bigger piece of the pie? They speak up.

They become organized, which they've done a little bit better job, particularly this year. I don't want to mention the B word, Scott, the boycott word, because that's the real leverage that they have. But hopefully they're not going to need that. It's just been announced that the players are going to have a seat at the table with the majors. Here's the deal. The revenues for these slams are going up exponentially in the last couple of years. The player's percentage of the overall money that's brought in is about 14, 15%. It should be in the mid-20s, in my opinion.

So I think they're going to make some exponential moves forward so that the players can get there within a few years, but the players have to be organic. Because there's no union in tennis like there are in the other team sports. Do the tennis players deserve 48, 50% of what the NFL players get? No, but they deserve more than they're getting. because the events themselves are getting more and more successful. It even has a more dramatic impact below the top 100, where we are essentially talking about individual startups

as human beings who are trying to make their way, and it's nearly impossible. How do they improve that? You basically run your own business. I mean, I was in that position when I got out of college. You're trying to figure out a way to survive, to make some money. even when you get into the top 100 in the world, even you get to 50 in the world. So you're a legitimate player.

So the way to do that is to make the prize money more beneficial for the earlier rounds in the tournament. And that's starting to happen. Tennis used to be where the prize money would double round to round to round. I don't think that's fair. They don't do that in golf. And I think tennis is starting to see that. The top players deserve to make the most. They're going to make the most.

They deserve that. They're going to get the biggest deals. They're going to get the sponsorship deals. But I don't think they need to funnel some of that prize money, the overall prize money, into the first through fourth round of the term. That would help those lower tier players. So speaking of big-name players in the best, Roger Federer is going into the hall this weekend. I watched last night. You said during the broadcast, you've never seen interest around a player going in like you've seen for Roger.

Why is that? You know, he transcends a sport. And I think he transcends sports in general, because, He had a great line about it, I thought, doing an interview he did with our Chris Fowler a day before where he said, you know, the wins and losses, of course, when you're playing, they matter. You remember the stats that he won 20 majors, that he won five U.S. opens in a row. But what he remembers are the memories, the moments. And I think that's what fans remember more than anything, because he gave you so many incredible moments. Did it with such style?

Did it with such class? Did it with such grace? And he's continued to do that in retirement. It's almost like he's bigger now than he was, even when he was playing. So, yes, the interest level is great. We're a not-for-profit at the Tennis Hall of Fame. So we're looking to raise money to do this right, do it the right way. So we couldn't be more excited about the fact that we only got about 4,000 seats to sell.

And about 900 are a little horseshoe where it can actually see Federer. And the ticket sold out, Scott, in less than two minutes for the induction of Roger Fedder. So we're looking for it. It's going to be a special weekend in Newport. When Novak's officially retired and then. Post, Novak, Roger, and Rafa. Games in a good spot because of the players you mentioned at the very beginning of this interview. You know, interesting that I was talking to someone here on the floor earlier,

most fans now are loving going in the first seven, eight days of the tournaments, because the lesser-known players are getting more popularity. And I'm not talking about, you know, the gist of superstos, you know, the Francis Tiafos, the Tommy Pauls, players from all over the world. And I think they're attracting more and more interests. So fans are loving being part of the whole two-week, I guess now call it a three-week event. But yes, at the top of the game,

sinners with the most electric player I've ever seen. Even Roger Federer admitted that. Watching this guy played a high level, he's doing things on the court that even Federer and Djokovic didn't think about doing. And that's all part about the progression of the game, elevating the game, and on the women's side, you're right.

A lot of really good American players, Cocoa Gough, Amanda Anasamova, Jess Pagula, who we'd love to see win a major finally, and players from all over the world, much more evenly matched when you go down the list of, you know, five to ten female players. But if Sinner and Alcorahs are healthy and hot, they've pretty much been unbeatable the last couple of years.

But that's not the case of the U.S. Open this year. All right. Well, you make it more fun to watch and listen. So we look forward to seeing you this year. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me. On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. That's Patrick McEnroe.

Still ahead. More on the future of the AI trade. InVIDIA earnings are looming large. Alders, Anka Crawford, she'll be here at Post 9. We'll get her take next. All right. Welcome back. Does the AI trade hang in the balance tonight? Let's ask portfolio manager, Anka Crawford of Alder. She owns several of the big names in the space, if not all of them.

All right, so let's do Nvidia first. What do you think is going to happen? I mean, don't tell me they're going to be, this is going to be great. Like, we know that, but the stock usually doesn't move on that. So what do you think is going to happen? Look, I don't actually think what the numbers are matters this time around. And we're just going to have to listen to what he says. And I actually don't think he'll be able to say anything that's going to change bears or bull's mind. Why? Because right now the argument isn't about what's happening this quarter or next quarter or even next year. It's what happens in 2029?

What is the margin structure of this company? What is the growth rate of this company with more competition? So that said, if you look at the whisper numbers on the street on 2028, this thing trades at a low double-digit multiple, And it is a coiled spring. And in any world of investing, a company that has duration with this kind of growth rate does not deserve to be a 10 to 12 multiple. Well, why? And why does it have that? I mean, if it's so obvious, right, I mean, you say all the virtues of what the story is.

And Dan Ives does and others do as well. And somehow the stock just doesn't move. It's been, yes, it's up 14, I think, percent year to date. but it's been disappointing. Brian Belski was sitting over there and it's not exciting, and he owns it. How does it get that excitement back? I think as people understand

and are more comfortable with the application of artificial intelligence and they understand how much compute we're going to need and it becomes more of a reality to them, I think that kind of starts to unleash this trait in NVIDIA because right now people are in disbelief that we will need this much compute.

And I think that is the driving force on the duration for the stock. How concerned are you about the data center backlash? I'm concerned. I'm concerned. And in part because I think that there's a lot of flood out there. There are so many arguments that are simply not factual, whether it's water, the noise element. You know, electricity is a problem. But it's not a problem today.

It will be a problem towards the end of the decade, and we can solve for it. So with the midterms coming, this has been a key worry on the entire AI trade, that midterms would be almost like a kill-the-robots kind of moment, where now it's like kill-the-a-I moment. And do we actually stop the growth of artificial intelligence in our country, which would be really a disaster for- us in our country. So the AI trade in general, the hyperscalers and others, does that hang in the balance to some degree

based on tonight? Because as I said at the outset, it's going to be good, beat rays, Jensen's not going to be negative. What's hanging in the balance do you think for those others? Look, it's going to be, I think, actually think, whatever he says tonight

is positive for the rest of the AI trade. But the AI trade also has the overhang of what happens in 2029 and is 2020 truly the peak because we put in too much capacity. And so again, this argument will not be resolved tonight. And it might take a few more iterations of earnings calls in order to really get at that. And seeing the benefit to society, I mean, you saw the Moderna Merck news. You know, AI comes up with personalized cancer vaccine. As we see, see more examples of this in our society, I think people will start to understand the benefit that it has and why we have to be.

Do you think just getting through the midterms could be a clearing event in some respects? Because you know that the megaphones are going to be really loud between now and November from any politician who's seizing on that issue to run on. But once you get through that, it could be. It very well could be. And as we start, you know, the next year into 2027 and people take. a look at what the numbers actually are, they feel more comfortable and say, you know, 12 times is the wrong number. We'll see you soon. Thanks, Ankara. That's Ankara Crawford. Up next, we track the

biggest movers into the close. All right, we're about 10 from the close. Let's get to Brandon Gomez for a look at the key stocks we're watching. Hi there. Hey there, Scott. Let's start with Abercrombie and Fitch soaring after raising full year sales and profit forecasts, helped by tariff-free funds. The retailer beat on earnings and revenue, but comparable sales did miss estimates. Stock still pacing for its best day since November of 2025. Solar Edge, also gaining on a UBS upgrade to buy from neutral, analysts say the FCC's ban on foreign-produced power inverters announced last month is an opportunity for Solar Edge because it's already onshore that part of its business. The firm also hiked its price target to $42 from 36. And Intuit shares, lower, although well off their overnight lows,

as its revenue growth outlook for fiscal 2027 missed estimates, a number of downgrades on results with B of A saying that AI is having a more noticeable impact on Intuit's growth. Shares down over 40% year-to-date, Scott. All right, Brandon, thank you, Brandon Gomez. Straight ahead. Big countdown to Nvidia. We'll take you inside the market zone next. We're now on the closing belt market zone.

Mike Santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Oliver Renick, standing by live from Cebo in Chicago. Christina Parts of Nevelos and Bernstein, Stacey Raskon, with final looks ahead of that Nvidia print. Michael will go to you first. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, obviously market hesitating here. It's absorbed a lot. You know, if you think back to all the other amazing semiconductor earnings reports we got over the last couple of months, most of them were stellar. You did get negative stock reactions. Maybe we've already now set up

for a little bit of conservative expectations. It certainly seems like there would be room for relief, both for Nvidia shares and the broader market if we got through this with a clean number and guidance that are from the long-term picture. But it's hard not to see the stock is capped. And maybe the market It's going to have a little bit of an overlay of skepticism just because the big picture concerns about all the financing and the rest are not going to go away in one quarter. Maybe what could change the story if we get some kind of a shock in all capital return announcement from Nvidia, share buybacks, dividends. Who knows if that's this quarter's business, but it hovers out there. You think this is more about tonight how other stocks trade rather than what Nvidia does? Yeah, I think it's getting clear of it and then really seeing if there's demand after this little 2% point.

in the S&P 500 for the broader complex and for semis in general, which have given back a lot of their reflex bounce but are trying to hold their ground here at some pretty crucial levels. All right. Can't wait to see in overtime. It's going to be a big one about five minutes away from overtime with Mike Santoli. All right, Oliver, tell me what you see from CBO. We talking about InVity also? Yes, sir.

Arguably the biggest potential for this report and for the king of AI, the OG Scott, in 18 months. That's according to options pricing. They're looking at a 6% swing in the stock, which is double the median post-earning swing of the past four quarters in what would be the biggest earnings move for the stock since February last year. Bullish calls are much more expensive than puts, and the ratio of open call contracts to puts suggest traders are more actively preparing for a rally than a sell-off.

The highest concentration of trading is happening in puts and calls tied to the 220 strike where there's almost four times as many calls open than puts for bears. Invidia has dropped the day after its last four reports. They're hoping the staying flirts with the $200 level because there's very little hedging happening below that. So if it cracks it, it would get ugly. But right now, definitively, a bullish lean, Scott. All right, good stuff, Oliver. Appreciate that very much. Christina, the last words from you before this hits in less than, well, five minutes, 10 minutes or so. Yeah, at 420 Eastern, but the numbers, Wall Street is whispering data center revenue up around 150% from a year ago.

And next quarter guidance north of $105 billion, some even saying $109 billion. Watch three things beyond guide. So margins, whether NVIDIA can hold that mid-70s line as memory costs climb. The Ruben ramp, whether it's the next big chip, is actually landing on schedule. There's some concerns with that with strong blackwell cells cushioning any early gaps. And then customers, proofs that demand. is spreading beyond the big four cloud names into AI startups, enterprise, and governments. Also, listen for CEO, Jensen Wong, pushing back on the circular finance worry,

the criticism that Invidio is just bankrolling its own customers. That answer may actually move the stock more than the beat itself. All right, good stuff. We'll wait for you. Look forward to all that. Christina, thanks so much. Okay, Stacey, you are in agreement, I think, with all of the stuff that Christina laid out. Ruben, Ramp, gross margins, upgrade to the outlook, financing deals.

there anything else we're missing here? No, the only thing I would say on the last point, she was talking about non-hyperscale customers. So the company last quarter actually gave a new segmentation for their data center business, which was sort of hyperscale and effectively non-hyperscale, which was Enterprise and the Neoclouds. And the surprising thing was they were almost 50-50. So I think they were trying to demonstrate that they actually do have a breadth of customers that is beyond sort of the Big Four or Big Five hyperscalers. And I think if investors can start to see that second segment, that non-hyperscale segment actually does.

grow, maybe even more than the hyper-scaled is, maybe that gives investors a little more confidence that the breadth of, like, the customer base actually is there. So that's something else that will be watching tonight as well. Oh, so that would help answer the question that was raised in the journal today about this inevitability of the hypers just deciding we're not raising any more debt. We've run down our free cash flow. We're going to slow things down. But if you're suggesting that they actually have a more durable alternative, if you want to use that word, that that could relieve some of those fears. I might hope so again.

I think that was why they did the resegmentation in the first place to start to show that narrative. Not that I'm expecting the hyperscalers to start cutting capex anytime soon. I mean, we've seen nothing over the last year or two except for those numbers continue to go up. And my guess is that hasn't stopped yet. So I'm not really worried about that yet at this point either. How do they counter what Brian Belski said earlier on this program?

And he owns the stock and loves the company. But the stock is just not exciting. right now. Nothing can be exciting like all the time, but my hope is that it can get a little more exciting. You know, one of the things that they said a few months ago is they sort of gave soft guidance for next year. They said, you know, we'll do a trillion dollars of revenue over three years, which it implied something like $500 billion in data center revenue, give or take, for calendar 27. I think from all those signs that we're seeing, I think that number potentially looks low and it could be materially low. And so if they could actually start to give us, you know, more, more

of a baseline to see that number go up. Maybe that starts to get some of the excitement back into the stock. I would hope so. I think it's exciting. Maybe the market disagrees at this point, but I don't think it's very exciting. Well, I mean, it's just, you know, it certainly has underperformed the other chips dramatically. Let me ask you this. The prospects that we do get what I think Mike Santoli said was a shock and awe announcement on a buyback. What do you think about that? I mean, they kind of did that last quarter, too. Maybe it was last quarter of the court before. They They took the dividend up 25x, right? And they announced a big buyback.

And they kind of said, we'll return, you know, more than 50% of free cash flow. So there is room for them to go bigger on cash flow return if they want to. And that is a possibility, although we can argue whether or not that's the right thing or not for them. I'll be honest. You have really worries about the quote, unquote, circular financing and then investing in the ecosystem. It doesn't actually bother me all that much. I'm sort of hard-pressed to think of better uses for their free cash flow. But I understand like investor appetite.

You know, they look in Apple and everything's in history where that is a big talent. And that's the case. And Stacey, thank you. That's going to do it for us. You know what's looming in overtime.