Closing Bell - Closing Bell 8/7/26

Episode Date: August 7, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Thanks, guys. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with tech's very good week. It's best in fact since early May. How about that? Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. Reflected certainly in how the board looks. Nasdaq's up almost 1%. Tech has led the week. It's been the strongest since April for the NASDAQ. Invita, Microsoft meta, all with strong showings. And how about Palantir today? A huge winner after its earnings. We'll have more on that in a minute. along with some of the other big software stories. There are many. Financial is going for 10 straight weeks of gains. It is the longest streak there since at least 1989. We'll follow that as well. It takes us to our talk of the tape, the tech resurgence, and whether it will carry the market to much higher levels from here.

Let's ask the Wharton School, Professor of Finance. He is Wisdom Trees, chief economist as well, and he is Jeremy Siegel. It's a Friday tradition. I'm happy it is. Welcome back. Thank you very much, Scott. happy to be with you. So this market's endured so much. And here we are, marching higher. How do you see where we are? We got a disappointing jobs report. Obviously, we've had some de-leveraging in the market

that made people a little nervous, and here we are. As I said, we're in the green, tech's leading. What do you see? Well, let me give you a positive spin on those two events. First of all, I think what happened with situational awareness was really very good for the market. I mean, a washout like that, it didn't cause any other crisis. We didn't see any of, you know, the dominoes falling. You know, I mean, certainly it was a loss to them. But, yeah, hey, three days later, he's making another investment. I mean, you know, I thought that that could spark a lot more selling.

the fact that it didn't, I think points to the fundamental strength of the market. Because everyone was worried, oh, there's too much leverage, too much leverage. If there was a lot more leverage, you would see a lot worse outcome there. Secondly, that's an interesting point. Yeah, go ahead. Make your other point. Yeah, I mean, just on today, I wasn't that disappointed. Let me tell you why I wasn't disappointed in employment report.

You know, I was wondering, why did we only have one and a half percent GDP in the second quarter with all those people that were working. Well, now we found out there wasn't all those people working. So that means productivity was actually higher. And although we got some, you know, surprises on the upside with productivity, productivity the last two and three quarters have not been good what we would expect AI to give us. But now when we use less people with less hours,

I think we're going to get a revision upward in productivity. I mean, we can produce 2 to 3 percent. with no extra workers, that means productivity is going up. So I think that that is, actually, when I looked at it, I said, oh, hey, maybe. That explains why we only had one and a half percent GDP. We really did not have, you know, hundreds of thousands of new workers. So when you, Professor, get a target of 8,050 from CFRA, which you did today, or you get a, we could hit 8,000 in August alone from Tom Lee or Ed Yardinney saying

8250 for the year might actually be conservative. Does that match up with your thinking? Yeah, I mean, it definitely, absolutely can definitely happen. I mean, I have never seen a surge of profits, of earnings like this, outside of coming out of a recession. And so this is an economy that is able to produce earnings without having, you know, four or five percent GDP growth. That is absolutely truly remarkable. Let me tell you something else that, you know, we're all worried about what happened

in Iran, whether that deal is going to work. It's oil going to go back up. When we talk about energy, the most important energy source, is actually for the United States natural gas. Natural gas, I just checked it, February gas, which is the most important because that's the heating season, is 15% lower than the day before the Iran War. The most important source of energy.

So, yeah, we're going to have, you know, we may have a little bit more here on whatever happens. I hope there's a deal. We all hope there's a deal on the oil side. But I'll tell you what I see happening on natural gas, again, more important to energy production than oil, electricity production than oil, heating almost completely in the United States, shows you that that is a very, very positive factor. I mean, many bulls will say that you nailed it with the earnings story.

That is the whole story. That it's the reason why we've been able to look past so many of the things that have gotten in our way for a minute because the earnings momentum and the earnings growth remains so strong and it's expected to continue to be just that. And then if you want to say, well, there's icing on the cake, too. I think John Waldron, the president of Goldman Sachs, said it earlier this week to Andrew Ross Sorkin, that it's broadening. We have to start talking about tremendous earnings growth outside of tech,

even with those numbers as large as they are. There's impressive stories to be told elsewhere, too. Yeah, and absolutely. And again, what's interesting, this profit, the margins of tech, and related tech have been going up. The margins have been relatively stationary of all non-tech because they haven't implemented AI. That is the future.

I mean, I've been talking to some people thinking about AI consultants are coming into telling firms, hey, you know, let me show you how you can reduce cost dramatically because a lot of firms really don't quite know how to use it optimally. That's the next frontier. That's the profit surge in the non-tech sector and what could drive the S&P beyond 8,000. And again, I think, listen, you know, I spoke about, I thought that the chip sector was too frothy, you know, with S.K. Heinex and, you know, what was going on there. That froth has come off.

So a lot of what we would worry about over speculation, over-leveraging, I think the market proved that, that was not going to be a problem. And that's why I, you know, I'm not, no one can guarantee we're going over 8,000 or 8,200, but, you know, I don't see any real obstacles in the path towards towards that rise. That's been a really interesting and remarkable, I think, characteristic of this bull market the entire way, and probably why you've had V-shaped recoveries all along the roadmap. The self-correcting mechanism of this bull market is, is something to be. behold. And I think you speak to it when you think of the froth, that the market was able to get rid of, if you will, some excess without having the whole story fall apart and then rebuild

itself. Now, another interesting story of late is that depressed areas of the market have been able to show signs of life again, too. I'm talking about the software trade, Palantir with a tremendous week. And there are many other names in that basket, too. I'll ask you to hold on for just a moment, Professor, and get a closer look at that from Dom Chu, who's going to give us an idea of the moves that we've seen within this group. Hey, Dom. It's, Scott, it's been pretty amazing. The sentiment shifts so far, just this week alone for software. We'll use ETFs to kind of tell that story and that lens. The I shares software ETF, the ticker IGV, over the last week, is up roughly 8%. And again, if you put it in context, though, long

term, it's still a pretty decently down story, right? You look over the last year down 7%. It has taken a backseat to many parts of the tech trade, namely when it comes to semiconductor stocks. Now, there have been fundamental drivers of the reason why that software trade this week has been a standout. Three names in particular at the top of the list with regard to holdings within that ETF that have done really well over the course of this past week. Look at Atlassian, look at Palantir, and look at Unity software, all up between 34 and 50 percent in the one week alone, driven in large part by that earnings story and the outlooks that they have. So it's not just a momentum thing. It's earnings that are kind of backing that up and the outlooks

that they have. Now, if you look at that software trade versus the semiconductor trade that we've highlighted throughout the course of the past six to 12 months, you take a look at this over the past kind of month or so here. It's been a decent amount of outperformance on that software ETF versus the semiconductor ETF. But again, this is just one month. Over the longer, term on a year-to-date basis, there is still a massive gap in performance between that software trade versus the semiconductor. So whether or not we see any kind of movement there to close that gap even further, that's something to be watching. By the way, Scott, Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist, Osang, noted in a note to clients today that the ETF flows for semiconductors were

someone the worst, of course, of industry groups this week compared to the best, which has been software and services. Things are moderating a bit, but still, that software services trade versus seven conductors, a big one, Scott. I'll send things back over to you. And I'm glad you point that out. Dom, thank you. That's Dom Choo. Professor, you're still with me. Let's welcome in Warren Pyes 314 research co-founder Malcolm Etheridge, Capital Area Planning, group managing partner. Malcolm, I'll come to you. I mean, tech's back in a big way. I gave the stats about the sector having its best week in a long time, the NASDAQ having its best week since April. Is this now the leadership again?

Yes, God, I think yes. I heard you frame the conversation talking with the professor a second ago about the rotation underway. And you know how I feel about this. I'm a firm believer that the market is really skating to one song and one song only. And really, that's just AI CAPEX. And so because the previous quarter we just got the four main hyperscalers that matter that are doing all of the building, spending the money to build out the data centers and buy the infrastructure required to build the compute, to run these models and everything else,

because those four companies either reaffirm their guidance or increase their CAPEX guidance, that bought the market potentially another two to three months of this euphoric feeling that we've been undergoing. And that's why the week has looked so strong. So it's not surprising to me that tech is back in hole, back at the helm of this bull market, because it's really all about one thing, the AI CAPX story. But I mean, if that AI CapEx story is such a big thing, then A, why is that so bad? B, it doesn't mean that tech is the only group that's going up. Because if I look at, let's just say, year-to-date, for example,

industrials are up almost 20%. I mean, that plays into the AI story. That plays into the data center buildout. Maybe part of the materials trade does too in terms of the industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and some of the other things. energy, by the way, up 28%. I mean, there's a lot going on in this market, Malcolm, outside of tech. Are you giving enough credit to that?

Yeah, I don't mean for it to sound as if I'm saying it's bad that these companies have increased or reaffirmed their KAP-X story. I'm just saying that that is the thing that has breathed new life into this bull market cycle. And so I think that it's going to continue for another two to three months solely because those companies had positive things to say at this earnings period. But to your point, I think that it is the trickle-down effect of all of that spending. We've had about $2 trillion on its way to $3 trillion in just three short years that is being spent by the hyperscalers to do this build-out. And so all of the companies, whether it's in industrials or real estate or something else in between, are the recipients of all of that spending.

And that's why those sectors look like, you know, they're healthier and they're on their way. But I don't consider that to be a rotation in the sense that the earnings, power or the earnings conversation should include anything other than the hypers doing the spending and the chip companies that are receiving the bulk of that spending on the front end. How do you see this market right now, Warren? Yeah, I think Malcolm has it pinned, basically. Like, our view was that we've been overweight equities since mid-April. We're still riding that call for now. And we really wanted to be overweight through this earning season.

We like to set up. I know you're saying there are a lot of like targets getting raised today, but probably should have been doing that a few weeks ago in preparation of this earning season. It kind of worries me to see the targets raising now. But nevertheless, I think that the chip stocks are so, there's so much hedging and volatility was so high with that group. We were pretty confident we put in a low with the semiconductors. And then we thought that the recipe for a higher index was for hyperscalor earnings to come through.

This is what's happened. I think it's largely played out. I think we have a couple more, a few more weeks left in this grind higher. And then the market's going to have to start thinking about macro concerns and things like that. I wouldn't be surprised to see us take our equity overweight back down and neutralize that. I think it's getting closer to the end of this big rally move. And you can see it and you can field in the sentiment too. I think that everyone's getting wrapped up and looking in the rear view a little bit.

I'm glad you mentioned that because it's exactly where I wanted to go back to the professor on. This idea that sentiment now feels like it's over. overwhelmingly bullish in most camps, not all. Professor Michael Hartnett of B of A, their bull and bear sentiment indicator rises to the highest level since 2021. It's very emblematic of what Warren was just describing. Yeah. And, you know, those sentiment indicators have been around for over a half century. You know, it's interesting. They don't usually predict near-term tops. They have to be there for a while to produce the top. And, you know, when I look ahead three to five years, I ask, which type of stocks have the greatest opportunity for margin expansion? Non-tech, which have been

relatively stable and still yet to use the full implementation of AI, or all the tech and compute that is, of course, booming to supply it, but has had margins that we just haven't seen before in history and deservedly so, but with competition always around the corner. So I think that it's not just all tech, and I think the opportunities are still undiscovered in the other, what, 480 stocks that we have in the S&P. But it doesn't mean that tech and non-tech can continue together to hit those 8,000 targets that you mentioned at the beginning of our show. That goes back, doesn't it to the fact that earnings growth and earnings momentum is broadening? And in that scenario, as long as that remains the case, and by the way, estimates for the next two quarters at minimum

look really strong, then why wouldn't the market be on strong footing for that duration? Yeah, I mean, this is something we've been talking about going back to last year, is that we foresaw this earnings breakout. And I do think, you know, it's real and it's, it's impressive. But I think that's the reason why the market's up again after two straight 20 percent years. And so I'm not saying that we're at some kind of secular top or even bearish. I mean, we're overweight equid at this point in time. And really because of the fundamentals and the earnings story that everyone is now familiar with. But I worry about some of the macro things coming up and the seasonality that we're hitting here between September and October. I do think

that it's a coin flip at the Fed hikes rates in September, even after today's jobs, report and I think the jobs report today shows us again that it would be a mistake if they did that and I didn't think beyond that the midterms are also a source of volatility so when I see excess excessive sentiment and then some macro clouds for me on the horizon I start considering you know when are we going to reduce our equity overweight can't just always be a bowl you know and so that's that's the that's the recipe I'm looking at right now okay Malcolm I'll give you the last word to react to that statement right there yeah I would say even to the point that the was making, I think it's a really important one. If all of the productivity that we are promised

via AI does actually come to fruition, I would think that it probably means that we start to see more of that convergence that Dom was showing between the IGV and the SMH, it would start to get a lot closer and those dollars would flow into software companies. Software companies will be able to show a lot more productivity faster than most other industries. And so if AI is being weaponized in the way that we wanted to, in the sake of productivity, that's where it'll show. And the trend should carry more than just one or two weeks at a time. It should be sustained growth in the IGV and those software companies that underpin it. And that's how we will know whether it's a rotation and a rollover happening where the AI technology is being absorbed and being made productive,

or if we're going to have to ebb and then flow our way into it. All right. Gentlemen, we'll leave it there. Everybody have a good weekend. The professor, Warren and Malcolm, we'll see everybody soon, I'm sure of that. Let's get to some of today's top movers. There are many, starting with shares of SpaceX, Monster Week for the stock, best since going public. Options traders having a field day with that move as well. Good to check in with Oliver Renick, who plays Options Action for us from the CBO in Chicago. What do you see? Hey, Scott, SpaceX Options are so back. 2.4 million contracts traded today, four times the one-month average, third most in the market after Nvidia and Tesla for about $1 billion in premium and 60% of it tied to calls. The bottom line is

those big put sellers we saw on SpaceX yesterday are feeling very good right now as the stock finds support. But some of the call buyers still have work cut out for them, including in these next 40 minutes into the bell. Right now, four of the top five call contracts expire today. There's about $20 million in the 120 strikes, which look very safe. But the most popular by volume and with almost $8 million on the line are the 130 strikes, which are heading for a photo finish right now. So how this stock closes today might just make or break some people's weekends, Scott. All right, good stuff. Oliver, thanks a good weekend to you.

McKenzie Sagaloff says more on Airbnb, excuse me, surging today, beaten raise, right? That's right, Scott, Airbnb up nearly 16% today. off the back of that print as Wall Street re-rates its growth outlook following a stretch where bookings had cooled and investors were questioning whether the company's hypergrowth phase was spading. But Wells Fargo now raising its target to $186, city to $193 after Airbnb beat and boosted its full-year guide. CEO Brian Chesky telling me that AI is the number one explanation for the results. Airbnb poached Mehta's former generative AI chief as CTO this year now uses more than a dozen models, including open source LLMs, and says that AI is driving bookings, cutting service costs,

and boosting productivity. First time, bookers are growing at the fastest pace in four years, in the U.S., its biggest market, accelerated from Q1. Headcount is flat year-to-date. While Chesky expects revenue to keep growing much faster than staffing, he also says that Airbnb will spend far more on AI tokens than originally planned because the returns, including higher revenue, more than justify the inference costs. Scott? Mack, thank you. Mackenzie Segalis. Let's check in on Sweet Green shares. Selling off today. Brandon Gomez has more on that. Hi there.

Hey there, Scott. Yeah, small cap Sweet Green cutting its full year outlook. The company said food safety concerns weighed on demand. But the pressure, Scott, wasn't entirely cyclospora related. To recap, Sweet Green missed expectations on the top and bottom line, a 22 cent adjusted loss per share on revenue of 193. Same store sales fell 6.2% worse than the street had expected. Now, the company expects an adjusted EBITA loss of up to 27 million. That's down from a profit.

Management said business was improving, with transactions going from down 11% in Q1 to roughly flatten June before tanking mid-July. Analysts I've spoken with are leaning toward this being temporary. A positive update yesterday from Michigan health officials at the center of the outbreak telling residents that salad greens and lettuce consumption can return to routine guidance as cases declined in the state. So some good news there, Scott. All right, good stuff, Brandon. Thank you. That's Brandon Gomez. We're just getting started here on the bell. Up next, President Trump, reviving his push to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

We'll get Muhammad Al-Aryans take on what it means for Fed independence, plus why he says Fed Chair Warsh is being misread. We'll discuss next. Welcome back, President Trump, moving forward today with his attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Our senior economics reporter Steve Leesman joins us now with more. Steve? Scott, thanks. The White House taking steps to potentially outs Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her job. Continuing an effort begun last year that reached the Supreme Court, a White House letter sent Wednesday to Cook to details the previous allegation of mortgage fraud, which Cook has denied. The letter says that the president has determined, quote, there is reason to believe

the allegations constitute cause to remove Cook from office. The letter also reads, quote, this conduct was grossly negligent and demonstrates that you are unfit for the office in which you serve as a controlling member of the Federal Reserve. Cook's attorney, Abby Lowell, provided the following statement, quote, these allegations are as baseless now as they were a year ago when President Trump tried to remove Governor Cook and interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve. There's no valid cause for removing Governor Cook. As we did before, we will challenge this latest pretext and preserve her position and the historic role of the Fed. In June, as you remember, found the president was not within his rights to fire Cook,

in part because he had not provided notice. So this letter suggests the president attempting to follow something of a blueprint the court provided for firing a Fed official that might be acceptable. At the same time, the court also held that the Fed officials hold a special status that makes them different from other officials that were fired from agencies once thought to be independent under President Trump that have been sanctioned by the court. The move by the president puts new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, I guess, in an awkward position here. Former Fed Chair Powell showed up at Cook Supreme Court hearing

to show his support, Scott. Okay. Steve, appreciate that. That's Steve Leesman, our senior economics reporter. For more on all things Fed, including this story, let's welcome in Muhammad L. Aeron. He wrote an op-ed in the F.T. today saying the new chair is being misread. Muhammad is Alianz's chief economic advisor. It's good to have you back. We'll get to your op-ed in a moment because I certainly want to do that. But your reaction to this news of the day, this continued effort to try and get rid of Lisa Cook? It's puzzling. Interestingly, the market didn't react, Scott.

Nothing moved really in the fixed income market when this news came out about an hour ago. And I think part of it is because the market is comfortable that the new Fed share is, believes in Fed independence, has the ability to convince people on the FOMC, depending on how he assesses the situation, So it's interesting that unlike the first time, there's been virtually no market reaction at all to this. Sure, but I mean, while the Fed Chair himself may believe in Fed independence, it's clear that the

president may hold a different view on what his role could and should be on that very question. And if nothing else, this just simply throws that question back out there for people to discuss and debate as almost a distraction from the Fed's job at hand? That is certainly the risk, Scott. But we've already seen one round of this. It's a bit like the tariffs. We've already seen one round of this. It turns out that Fed independence is quite strongly anchored.

And I think the market feels, and I agree with the market, it feels that the Fed can protect its independence, especially. if it embarks on the types of reforms that Walsh is committed to. So let's move from the question of its independence to questions that are sort of hanging out there otherwise. You wrote an op-ed in which you say Worse is being misread. In what sense? So there are three areas. One is, do we need the source of reforms and do we need the task forces that he's put in?

place. And I think, and you're better judge, but I think consensus has moved that the reforms are a good idea to look into and that the task force are populated by people that are highly respected. The second issue was forward guidance and his refusal to submit dots. Again, we're seeing consensus move towards, you know what, maybe it does make sense to not provide forward guidance when the world is so fluid. And we talk about it every day. Geopolitics, AI, there's so much going on that this notion that you can have accuracy going forward

doesn't make sense. The third area that hasn't moved us yet is his reaction function. And that's because of the press conference. If however you go back to his speeches, you go back to his testimony in front of Congress, you go back to his confirmation hearing, there was a very clear reaction function where interest rates are the main weapon to combat inflation

and deep an eye on the supply side as well. That's his two very big reaction function elements right now. So it's one thing to get rid of forward guidance and get rid of the dots. I think everybody can agree on that. Isn't it a different thing, though, to completely refrain. from giving any sort of explanation to the market on what your thinking is on how you're going to do what you say and pledge and promise that you're going to do. And that's get inflation back down to target and then suggest that there's zero tolerance for anything otherwise, but not to give the market anything to understand how you're actually going to achieve that goal. So that line that divides reaction function from forward guidance is seen differently by different people.

And that's the issue. You know, the FTA ran a story that seemed to have been well sourced that maybe at Jackson Hall, we're going to get closer to what you're looking for than where he was at his press conference. You know, I think it's amazing that we've had inflation running hot for five years. And you've heard me complain about this over and over again and complain about the other slippages. And people were quite tolerant of this. And now suddenly people have become less tolerant even though core inflation has not moved up in any significant manner. And I think that it's just a change of the Fed share and people getting used to a very different way of operating.

There's no question about that. Look, the bond market, for one, is going to have to try and figure it all out. I'm wondering if there is a, in quotes, cost of the Fed Chair's own uncertainty in his messaging. And that's in part what we've got with the 30-year backing up to the degree it did as he was speaking last week. And it's continued to remain at relatively, you know, the same similar levels, albeit a little bit lower today on what was the disappointing jobs report. Okay, so first of all, inflation break-evens haven't moved. And if there was a loss of credibility of the Fed, you would have seen that happen. Secondly, what's happening to the long end, and you talked about it this morning,

has mostly to do with the incredible amount of demand for loanable funds. You know, you and I talked about this. I did a very simple exercise two to three months ago, and I wrote about it, where, like the good old days, you would look at the uses of funds, you would look at the sources of funds in the bond market and ask, do they equilibrate? And they don't because the uses of funds are going enormously higher. Look at simply what Alphabet has been doing. There's 800 billion of KappaX that needs to be funded.

There are government deficits. And then on the sources side, the Gulf is no longer a main provider of capital like it used to be. So that is going to have an impact on the 10 years, it's going to have an impact on the 30 year, and it has been having that impact. And that's why the 30 year is stuck around 520 despite everything else that's going on. Do you think the wait and sea crowd was vindicated in any way by today's jobs report? If you take that in total with the last month and then the revisions that we got as well? Yeah, and you saw a 10 percentage points move in market expectations down to 43%.

Having said that, next week, the CPI, and to a lesser extent, send the PPI, that's what's really going to move Fed expectations with regard to September. And in particular, what happens to core inflation and what happens to core service inflation. Mohamed, good stuff. We'll see you soon. Thanks for your time, as always. All right, have a good weekend. Mohamed Alarion. Coming up, one of the country's top wealth managers, Chris Toomey, he's back with us. What's he telling his clients about the stock market near all-time highs? He'll tell you next. It's been the best week for stocks since April, as earnings continue to be better than expected,

and that along with the return of the AI trade, has many market participants raising their own optimism. Chris Toomey's founding partner of Morgan Stanley Team Global, it's one of the firm's top-rated private wealth firms. Welcome back. It's been a minute. Are you one of those raising your optimism? Because I got a lot of targets that are at minimum of 8,000 now. Yeah.

What do you think? I think they're going to be raising those targets. I think we're in a situation here where we had a very good point, back in the market given how far valuations had run. I think this was a good opportunity to understand the difference between the dynamics with regards to valuation and what's happening with regards to markets. You saw a situation where the S&P came back about 3%, but if you look at momentum indices, they were down as much as 40 or 50%. So the move down was significant with

regards to some of those names that had run really hard. This was a move similar to like the GFC, right? And so it's important to understand what's driving that. Some of that's that, levered ETFs that the retail investors are focusing in on. But there's a lot of desks on Wall Street that run these momentum indexes. And hedge funds are specifically looking at controlling that risk by shorting it or using options on it. And what happens is that that starts to build momentum. And then we had a complete washout with regards to hedge fund, which I think really creates the bottom in the market. And so I think we're ready for that next leg of the bull market. Wow. So that's a clearing event. We cleared out a lot.

lot of froth, and now we're ready for a reset. Correct. And I think what's important is, is you hit on one important thing, I think, before, what's driving this market so far? You know, it's interesting because it's tech, of course, but energy and industrials, you know, those are early cyclicals that have done really well. And a big reason for that is the top three earnings surprises to the upside, energy, tech, industrials. And so we've seen. We've seen. We've seen, seeing that kind of play out with regards to price performance. Now going forward, we think the market's going to be a little bit more discerning. Are you surprised in any way that the situational awareness unwind and the momentum collapse, albeit a short one, didn't have a greater impact

on the overall market? I mean, the professor of Siegel was saying he was. Yeah, I mean, look, we've seen this before. We saw an operator a couple years ago have a similar effect, affecting multiple desks on Wall Street, which created a crescendo with regards to the market. It was pretty impressive with regards to seeing how well the market took the news and then move forward. I think the real positive thing that gave them that ability to look forward was just how strong earnings were. If you look at it, we had two consecutive quarters of north of 20% type earnings growth over 40% year over year. And importantly, you talked about this before, we're seeing real breath. The median S&P company is up over 14%. And so there's plenty of opportunity

in other areas, not just in tech. Okay, so unless that changes, you don't change your view. And dare I say, you sound more bullish about this market than you have in a long time. We've had a lot of conversations. No, look, I think we've been cautiously bullish. You know, look, if you look at it, I think the big thing for us has been valuations on the public market side, been astronomical, and we've been very careful with regards to how we've been playing the public markets. We've been a lot more aggressive on the private markets where he's making significant returns, and we're continuing to see those returns. I'm not saying you've been bearish, but you sound like you're kind of ready to take the cautiously off the table at this point.

Yeah, look, I think we are now moving to mid-cycle, which is typically the area that we perform the best, higher-quality type of names, more sustainability, more discerning markets, as opposed to kind of chasing those early cycle names, really looking in and saying buying higher quality types of names where you can see that sustainability. Mid cycle? Yes. So the early cycle kind of industrials, energy, financial is an area that we do like, which hasn't really done well, up about 6%.

Did you know that financials are about to get their 10th straight week of gains? Yes. Longest since like 89. Yeah. It's kind of been stealthy. Yeah, because it's only up about 6% year to date. And importantly, you mentioned software before, looking at IGV, IGV basically did nothing last year, was up about 5%, down 6% this year.

What are the top five names? Two of them are cybersecurity names. The other, more discerning, hyperscalers, performing during the equity situation. Nice thing about the hypers, they are the enablers, but they are also the adopters with regards to AI. What's going to happen now in what we saw in earnings and in the market performance is the market being discerning, who are the guys that are actually using that capital and seeing results from it? So you think the sentiment indicators, like the one I read from B of A, are justified in revealing how bullish people actually are? I believe. I believe it. Look, I think you've got deregulation, big beautiful bill, stock market continuing to do well.

I think the big concerns is obviously the issues around inflation, right? So you're in a situation. It's the number one thing that consumers are focused in on. You mentioned we've talked a little bit about the Fed. But one thing that we haven't talked about is this inflation problem, it's a supply side issue. And the Fed is really focused in on demand side issues. I don't know how much worse can do with regards to controlling oil prices and that feeding back into the rest of the economy. So there's part of a reason why I think he's not talking as much about doing something is because I think he's worried about signaling to the market and the fact that it's not necessarily going to have the impact the market wants. Well, you're that bullish.

You send like 30 pages of notes. My goodness. That's right. Man, save a treat. You get paid by the word. It's good to see you. Good to see you. All right, Chris Toomey.

Up next, trade desk shares, their worst day in a year. We're going to tell you why when we come back. All right, less than 10 from the bell. Back to Christina now for the stocks that she's watching. What do you see? Let's start with Twilio shares because they're surging following a better-than-expected Q2 report. The customer engagement platform also says its new voice-based AI product

is really gaining traction, dispelling beliefs that maybe AI is going to ruin the business. shares up 26% best day since 2020. Meantime, shares of the Trade Desk are the worst performer in the S&P 500 after posting earnings and revenue below expectations, the digital advertising agency CEO, said the quarter just didn't meet the standards. They set for themselves as marketers just navigate what they called a complex environment. shares down 22%. Scott. Christina, thank you. Coming up next.

We're on record close watch yet again for the S&P 500 as we finish out this week. The market zone's next. All right, we're now in the closing bell market zone. MJP Wells, Brian Bendig, here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus Oliver Renick is at the CBO Global Markets in Chicago with some options action again. And Pippa Stevens is on the breakout in the metals. Oliver, what do you see? Affirmation, Scott. Market Bulls getting a big breakout this week,

not just in the S&P 500, but record options volume and call buying and zero DTE trading on Tuesday here at CBO. When one trader said the intensity of the buying sounded like what it used to be. He's referring to when this floor was packed with thousands. But that was the conviction here this week as options volumes exploded in earnings winners like Palantir and Microchip. And the VIX broke 15 to the lowest since the first week of January. Traders love to see consolidation after big gains. That's what we got yesterday.

It's what we're getting today. and now Bulls are rolling S&P strikes up to 775 and spy in the near term, 785 in the long term. That's where we see the most open interest, Scott. All right, good stuff. As always, good weekend to you. Oliver Renick, thanks. Pippa. How about these medals?

That's right, Scott. So the medals are shining this week, including gold up 7% for its best week since January. Now pushing into the green for the year after the weaker than expected jobs report is curbing expectations for a rate hike. The move pushing up the GDX with Ned Davis research noting 90%. percent of the fund now above the 50 day, up from just 21 percent at the start of the month, though sentiment does remain pessimistic and the IAU has seen outflows, pointing to central bank or hedge fund buying supporting gold's recent leg higher. Copper just shy of yesterday's record high with the recent run underpinned by expectations of additional U.S. copper tariffs,

which pulled forward demand as traders look to benefit from Comax's LME arbitrage. Silver added nearly 10 percent on the week, closing above its 50 day for the first time in more than two months. with platinum and palladium also sharply higher on the week. Scott? All right, Pippa Stevens. Thank you so much for that. Brian, we're going to get another record close on the S&P 500. 7736 is the old.

You see what we're doing here. So it looks like it's going to happen yet again. What does that tell you about where this market's going? I think the market likes the fact that earnings is there, stabilizes. And we got a relief for Ali Scott, as you know, the start of the week. But at the end of the day, this jobs report, told us that one report, I don't think, really change as much for the Fed. And with tech stocks rallying

today on lower interest rates, it's really a move saying we got a little bit more time to assess what the Fed's going to do with rates at the end of September. So next week, CPI is going to be a big number. I think that's going to move the market. And a lot of investors are going to pay attention to that inflation story, Scott. But as long as earnings remain robust and they're expected to do just that, this market's on firm footing? I think so. I mean, the fundamental backdrop is sound, but look, I don't like the setup from a macro as we go into the balance of the summer into the fall. We still have to get a process plan in the Middle East. We know midterms are less than 90 days away. But the nice news, Scott, is that over

70% of SMP 500 companies are trading above their 200-day moving average, and we see quality earnings across all sectors. So we have some durability to kind of move through this tough period of time that I think is going to be in front of us. Tech's back in a big way. Do you think that continues to leave? Quality earnings are there for tech, but I like the fact that health care industrial financials are also playing a part. I think tech today is up because interest rates are down.

We know CAP-X spending is now being financed and it's not just based on free cash flow. So I think that's why we get a little bit bounce back of tech. And also just say, even at these levels, we've seen that the market, over the next 65 days on average going back to 1950 can still even be up another 5%. So I think bulls are definitely outweighing the bears, but I would be cautious as we go into Jackson Hole and some tough seasonal compares in September. Good stuff. Brian, appreciate it as always. Brian Bendig. They're going to clap in a new record close for the S&P 500 yet again. We'll go out.