Closing Bell - Closing Bell 9/10/26

Episode Date: September 10, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wapner live at Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with rates, the Fed, oil, and stocks. And whether they're all on a collision course in the weeks ahead. We'll ask our experts over this final stretch, what's really at stake for these markets now. In the meantime, I'll show you the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation today. It's all playing out, as you see. In the stock market, we're red across the board. The PPI came in a little lighter, but July got revised higher, and some of the internal components that play into the PCE were hot. all playing a role in the markets today. Most sectors, as you see, are negative. Let's talk Apple shares, though, they're a big winner today following its big iPhone event. Highs of the day, better than 3%. We're also watching Oracle. It's red ahead of its earnings in overtime. That's a critical report.

We'll have a report ahead of just what to expect there. It does take us to our talk of the tape. The road ahead for stocks as potential potholes loom large. Let's welcome in our headliner today. The Wharton School Professor, Finance Wisdom Tree, Chief Economist. Jeremy Siegel, welcome back. It's nice to see you. Good to see you, Scott. So what do you make of what's transpired here?

You know, oils up, yields are up, the 10-year 490. Is that what's at play today? Let me tell you, I would not want to be Kevin Warsh next week. It's damned if you do, damned if he doesn't. If he does raise rates, which I think, think the market really is saying you need to, you know, President Trump can throw a fit. I mean, you know, he said if you don't lower rates, I'm going to throw a fit. So if he raises rates, and if he doesn't, you can see.

Well, listen, one of the things we always have said, the market tests new Fed chairs. And I think this is the test for Kevin Warch. the market 10 years moving towards five. The futures are all signaling you should raise. I think he would love to be able to hold off until after the midterms and try to keep some confidence with Trump, but it's a very, very difficult situation. What's he going to do? What do you think he's going to do?

Oh, boy. I'm right on the borderline. I think he's going to bite the bullet and raise rates. Because if he doesn't raise rates, I think there might be four or five or maybe six dissents, which would be unprecedented. Now, let's say we are going to get the CPI tomorrow. That might give him some comfort. So a few more days of some data there. Waller has sort of put a line in the sand saying, well, if it's point two, I might, you know,

say it's okay to keep the rates. if it's point three, maybe then we've got to raise the rates. But, you know, we've taken a look at the commodity indexes, of course, what's going on in oil, and most importantly what's going on in the bonds. They say you just have to raise rates. And so I think that's the bottom line. Okay, if you're right and they do, what's the market going to do?

Well, I think the market will first shutter and you'll see a sell-off. And if, as I expect, that long bond reacts positively saying, okay, the Fed is credible at fighting inflation, we're going to get a recovery in the stock market. So I think it'll be a first kind of a, you know, cold shower. Oh, wow. But we needed that. And, you know, let's get it over with. You know, 25, 50 basis points on the short end. you know, if they do one this time and one in October is, you know, not the end of the world

and would put the market on notice that the Fed still is serious about fighting inflation. I mean, maybe it would force the bond vigilantes or convince them to sort of sit down. I think so. Otherwise, they're going to be screaming at the top of their lungs. Yeah, I think there's a legit concern about that. That's why it's so highly anticipated. next week and truly uncertain as to what's going to happen. I'm wondering most of the notes that are coming out from strategists on Wall Street or observers who are well thought of. Citadel's Scott Rubner says his highest conviction right now is that the highs are in for the month, that you've got seasonal weakness, you've got the blackout window of buybacks mid-month,

you have option expiry coming at the third week and then the quarter all ending, and that's all a transfer of risk and not in the right direction, I might add. Those are my words, of course, not his. Is that how you see it, too? Is now the time to be cautious? Yeah, I mean, you know, we know about the month of September. I mean, look at oil continuing to rise, diesel rising even more. As we know, the records, gasoline futures signaling another 20 to 30 cents potential rise in gasoline.

I mean, this is not good for consumer sentiment. You know, going forward, you know, range bound is, you know, probably the best that we can expect over the next several weeks. Of course, at the end of the quarter, then, you know, we get another earnings cycle that does begin. And, you know, we'll see how that plays out. But until then, with rising oil prices, hard to see any, you know, really true upward movement in stock market. I mean, you make the interesting point that, you know, there's an air pocket between sort of now and then. There's just when you don't have earnings, which have been the story, beginning, middle, and end of it, you don't have anything to hang your hat on other than the fact that you're fixated on the bond market. You watch yields go up.

You're fixated on the oil market. You watch prices go up. And then you watch positioning move around and get more cautious. Sort of feeds on itself, doesn't it? Yeah, I mean, all those things do. And we do know, you know, stock prices as any asset are discounted at these interest rates. So, you know, bonds are competitive. I mean, in my opinion, in the long run, of course, I think that stocks still have a huge edge on bonds, even with the, you know, the 10-year at 5.3. But nonetheless, it's certainly more competitive than we've seen it in quite a long time. And you really need that. that earnings push to, you know, continue to justify the type of gains we've seen in stocks. So even sideways for the year, which would give you what, a 10% gain, 12% gain, S&P is, you know, looking at what I thought in January is, is not something that's

that bad. It's, you know, when you say it's more competitive than we've seen it, you're, you're talking about the competition between bonds and stocks. Competition between bonds and stocks. You got yields to a, yes. You got yields to a point where they're now, you know, super tempting with a lot of cash on the sidelines or in money markets or what have you. It's been difficult to get that cash to move kind of anywhere. Are we at that moment? If we go 5% 10 year, is that the moment that sends buyers into the market? Well, I think, you know, I actually think, you know, going over 5%, which will get a lot of headlines, is a lot of signals.

And it's a lot of signals to our government about, you know, there is worried about long-term deficits in debt. I mean, that is ultimately, you know, what is, I think, driving those long-term rates up. The Fed has to stand against it. You know, it did not stand against it, you know, during the period, Jay Powell, during the big deficits that we had during COVID, And we saw what the result is.

Now we're getting deficits not as big, but almost as big. The Fed has got to make a stand this time to really convince the bond market that we're not going to let that 2020, 2020, you know, 8 to 10, 8% rate of inflation materialize again. Well, Professor, we'll talk to you soon. I appreciate the time, as always. Professor Jeremy Siegel at the Wharton School. We'll bring in our panel now, CIBC's Chris Harvey, CNBC, contributor requisites. Bryn talking, good to have you both. Chris, start with you. Fed's got to take a

stand. You heard the professor says he thinks he thinks they should go. He thinks they will go. You think that? I'm not sure. So I'll tell you after CPI tomorrow. CPI runs hot, they'll go. CPI runs cooler in line. I have a hard time believing that they can go. But if they don't go, they're going to have to signal why and what's going on. Otherwise, they're going to have a bond tantrum at some point in time. Markets telling you, hey, they need to go. Warsh built expectations that they will go, but I just don't see enough on the ground unless you get a really hot CPI. What about the professors take? They're sort of darned if they do, darned if they don't. Yeah, that's a problem. So lots of things about the Powell administration I didn't like,

but one of the things they did a really good job at is they kept optionality, right? They kept everything open. Here, what Warsh did, he painted himself into the corner. He didn't feel like he got enough credibility. He didn't feel like the market believed that he was hawkish enough. So he came out very, very hot in Jackson Hole. Now he's got to kind of follow through and Bissent didn't do him any favors by not really managing the buyback very well. That said, if you don't get CPI hot, I don't see the kind of, why now, right? Why other than the market's forcing to do it? The underlying fundamentals, the underlying the recent reports, Don't tell you, I got to go now.

Bryn, this market's going to be on edge for the next better part of the next week, don't you think, until we actually hear from the Fed? 100%. I think the market's going to be on edge until midterms. And we've discussed this before, but since 1962, in every midterm between the end of August and November 4th, we've had about a 12 to 13% drawdown as a median. So I think investors should expect that, that drawdown. And I think that to what everyone said, you know, Kevin Worf said that he wants the market, the bond market to signal him. And with the two-year at, what, 453, rates are already risen on the short end. And so to me, it is a precarious position because you don't want to have, and they don't want to come out and do one 25 basis point. That doesn't, that's not really the way the Fed has historically run.

they go into a rate tightening cycle or a rate easing cycle. So to me, I think it is a threading the needle here of what type of cycle will we be in over the next 12 to 18 months. And ultimately, that's going to decide what the market does. One rate cut or one rate hike is not going to do anything. It's really the signaling of what the longer term trajectory is, which I think is very unknown right now because we have so many cross currents. Traditionally, no, it wouldn't do anything, just one move. other than if you think they're embarking on a very short credibility cycle, where one does do the job,

enough to settle down the bond market from getting two away from the Fed. But let me ask you this. So two months to the midterms, you think we could be unsettled between now and then, long-term story intact. We start to get earnings that remind us why we're here in the first place, 2% or whatever it is now away from that all-time high on the S&P. Does that mean you'd be a buyer? Should we be buyers on any weakness that comes over the next few weeks? Oh, 100%. And that's what the history. History tells you that, that if you buy during this midterm drawdown, like over 95% of the time, with the exception of 2002, that was a wonderful entry point.

And so I think sell calls, dollar cost averaging, earnings are good, AI buildouts going to continue. And so I think take advantage of this volatility, because this will pass. Because we do all understand. Iran is a really big issue around energy, around oil, and I don't think we're going to have a forever war. And when that dissipates, that's going to be very deflationary. And so I'm in the camp of take advantage of the volatility. I love selling calls. If you don't do that, dollar cost average.

I will say this one thing. We have not been buyers of long duration bonds forever. If you go out 10 years, you can get on a taxable equivalent basis, well over 7% on muni bonds. And so I'll be interested to see if cash buyers come out and actually from a tax, you know, a tax approval yield come out and start looking at muni bonds, which on a long-term basis off really good return. This is one of those moments, don't you think, whereas an investor, if you're thinking longer term, you've got to see the forest through the trees. You do. So I'm going to talk out of both sides of my mouth. So watch this. Right. So tomorrow,

I think there's a potential for a pretty good pop. Everyone's getting really defensive. Everyone's running for the hills, the probability of the Fed's going to hike is there. If you get a cooler CPI, suddenly things change like that. You get a pretty big pop. We would sell into that or we'd reposition the portfolio and take off some risk for the short term. I don't think you're right. There's 2% off the high. Is there enough there to put new money to work? No, not yet. What we want to do is we want to tread water. We want to be a little bit more defensive. We want to wait for the opportunity, right, to come up. And in weakness, in all likelihood, yeah, we tell folks to start putting new money to work, but not right here, not right? Where would opportunity knock the most,

do you think, if that, if your scenario plays out? Yeah. So what we're looking at is we're looking at a lot of the communications names, which are some of the bigger hyperscalers. We're also looking at some of the alt managers because we think they've been oversold. They've traded down recently. And we just want to get a little beta where we think the risk reward looks pretty good. And those are two areas that come to focus. What do you make of the, if you want to call it, the resurgence in the mega caps over the last? You call it month. Yeah, it makes a ton of sense.

Since earnings, really. That trades come back. For us, it makes a ton of sense. You've had rates going up since the end of June, right? So small caps have underperformed. What you're seeing is a move back to large cap. You're seeing breath beginning to narrow. You're seeing industrials underperform.

And that's what you would expect. You're seeing utilities underperform. That's what you would expect in a rising, great environment. You should expect larger cap, less cyclical. and more tech is selectively. All right, we'll leave it there. It's good to have you back. Thanks for being here.

Bryn, thanks you as well. We'll see both you soon. We're just getting started here. Coming up next, the NFL goes down under in its biggest international push yet. We're live in Australia, straight ahead. Plus, what the new season means for the betting boom. We have an exclusive with Draft King's CEO, Jason Robbins,

coming up as well. We're live with the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. All right, welcome back. Hours away from kickoff now, down under, NFL's most ambitious international trip to date. Our Alex Sherman joins us now from Australia with all that is riding on this game for all of the parties involved. Hi, Alex.

Hey, Scott. Yeah, you know, when I came down here, I was a little skeptical about the whole process of coming down to Australia. Are people here really fans of the NFL? Australian rules football is very big in Melbourne. But is the NFL, like, does that carry over? It's so far away. So I actually asked a handful of people on the streets of Melbourne and just asked them, are people really excited for this?

Watch this. Oh, for sure. We definitely have guys at work. I mean, we're at a school that's sporty people, and they're always talking about American sports, everything, the NFL and basketball are really getting more popular at our school. 100%. I reckon there's a real buzz around the city at the moment. I've got friends that live in Perth in Western Australia and they're like flying in for it.

100%. 100%. What do you attribute that to? Probably just the internet, to be honest. Lots of people more looking up clips and streaming. So obviously small sample size there, but that message even beyond those people that we spoke to of social media kind of resonating and making the NFL more popular was a common answer.

I sat down with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, and I asked him, look, are you looking for short-term results here where you suddenly see a pop in Australian popularity? regarding the NFL or is this the long game? And he answered, no, no, no. It is a commissioner's responsibility to play the long game. Listen to what he told me. You have to be thinking about all of these things going out five years.

And if you're not, you're being irresponsible. So whether it's media or whether it's labor, whether it's our international plans or other strategy, what we're doing with stadiums, all of that is taking a five, 10, 15-year look. And it's critical to do that. And Roger Goodell is going to be the commissioner of the NFL a little bit longer. He just signed a four-year contract extension, taking him through the year 2030 and into March of 2031. He's already been the commissioner of the NFL for 20 years. Scott. Where are you live from, Alex? Just checking.

I am live from Melbourne, Australia. Melbourne, not Melbourne. That is one of the things I learned here. And by the way, I'm right next to the Melbourne Cricket Ground, which is where tonight's game between the Rams and the 49ers will take place in just a few hours. All right. Awesome. Thanks for joining. Appreciate that.

That's Alex Sherman. In meantime, the start of the NFL season, always a big deal for betting platforms like Draft Kings. Arctessa Brewer with that company, CEO Jason Robbins, joins us now. Hi there. Hi, Scott. And really, this is the season. for Draft Kings and its competitors. Jason Robbins joins me now from Boston.

Okay, so Jason, tell me how was it the lead-up to last night and kickoff on a Wednesday night? Well, it's the first Wednesday game, so we didn't have a lot of comparisons, but overall I thought it was really great, great match-up. Game, obviously didn't have a ton of scoring, but it's usually good for the books. So overall, great start to the season

and really looking forward to tonight and the weekend. There's a serious trend emerging where sports books are stagnating and the prediction markets are soaring alongside the onslaught of NFL. H2 Gambling Capital told me that they estimate that the sports event contracts could actually pull $2 billion away from the legal sports books in the United States. You have both. You have sports books across the nation. You're one of the big giants. And you have a nascent prediction market business.

What are you seeing? Well, I think the notion that it's pulling volume from sports books is a complete myth. I've seen so much data on this, both internal and external and absolutely zero that I have seen points to anything like that. I think prediction markets are exciting growth because they're opening up so many new states like California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, that we haven't been able to offer sports products, at least beyond fantasy and maybe horse racing in before. So now we can offer sports predictions in all of these states. it's almost half of the U.S. population that we weren't previously offering sportsbook to. So, you know, to me, that's a pretty clear reason why it's growing so quickly.

Obviously, Sportsbook has been launched in many states, but many of those states have been, you know, seven, eight years now since they launched. And I think, you know, obviously very different when you have states that are experiencing their first full NFL season where there's a truly competitive sports prediction market. Okay, well, part of the reason is because in Florida, for instance, you don't have a gambling license, sports betting is legal there, but only through Hard Rock, which is owned by the Seminole Tribe. H-2 Gambling Capital said that they think the NFL handle in Florida alone will fall 12%. Do you think you're pulling away Hard Rock's customers onto your prediction platform?

It's very hard to say. I mean, I don't have access to Hard Rock's data. I can tell you from what we see in our own, you know, data in the markets that we operate in. We have very hard. seen zero discernible cannibalization. So, you know, I would stand to reason. It's probably not super material in Florida either. That said, you know, we obviously feel we have the best product in the market, and that's probably a big reason behind why we've been able to retain our customers so well. Okay, give me a sense of what you really think about prediction markets, because you have the business. But then, for instance, when Nevada gets a win in the Ninth Circuit saying that it can enforce its state gambling laws against Calci, with whom CNBC has a commercial relationship,

Draft King's stock pops. So there's clearly an investor optimism around prediction markets going away. You know, that's been one of the things that we've marveled at here is that we feel that prediction markets are overall a very good thing for us. Sure, there's some new competition, but we feel very good about, as I said earlier, the fact that it's having very little to know discernible impact on our existing business. And so really what it does is it opens up this huge new incremental tan. And even within the states that you are seeing, you know, that have online sports book, a lot of the volume there is coming from sharps and professional betters who are doing market making and things like that. It's a different audience than what we're really

focused on from the retail entertainment perspective. So, you know, those are basically the people that are making the markets instead of draftings, right? So there is a market for that for sure. States, but I would say within the retail, you know, core customer base, we feel very good that we are not seeing any cannibalization. So we think it's a huge new incremental opportunity. The fact that the market doesn't believe it, I can't control. Obviously, always interesting, though, to see something when you feel like it's good news and you get a negative reaction in the stock and you feel like it's bad news and you get a positive reaction to the stock. It's always, you know, gives us a chuckle here. But we think over time the facts will play out and people will figure it out.

I just want to remind the audience that you have refrained from offering sports event contracts in states where you already have a gambling license and offer sports betting. Last night after the kickoff for the NFL game, your competitor, Underdog, has surrendered its fantasy sports licenses in seven states. The regulators there said you cannot have a fantasy license if you're offering prediction markets. Are you experiencing the same sort of regulatory pressure for your fund? fantasy business as well. And in what other, because I heard even from a payments processor, they're getting regulatory pressure about customers, clients of theirs that offer both sports betting and predictions. We've been really respectful and had very transparent open dialogues

with all our regulators. And I think we have great relationships with them. And so I feel very good that we have approached this in a way that they will view as being a good actor. And, you know, we've received feedback as such. To date, we haven't been involved in any of that litigation. We haven't had any issues like the ones that you're describing that Underdog had. And I think it's because of the approach that we've taken. We've always said that the most important thing is that we treat our licenses like gold. It's obviously where we generate almost all of our business revenue from. Predictions is certainly an exciting new opportunity, but we're going to focus on it in the places that we don't operate licensed products.

Yeah, Jason Robbins. Good to see you. I know that, football season is exciting for you and for your team. Thank you for giving me some time. Thanks for having me. Scott, it's exciting, but what you're seeing is with all of these sportsbook operators, they are really trying to differentiate themselves and push forward their product and make sure that they have something that helps them stand apart from the competitors. I appreciate that interview.

Contessa, thanks so much, Contessa Brewer. Coming up, AI's biggest threat may not be a bubble, but the technology itself, billionaire Paul Tudor Jones sounding the alarm. Plus, what Y Combinator CEO just told CNBC about this issue, don't want to miss that next. We're back on the bell, add billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones to the growing list of those warning about the potential perils of AI.

Mr. Jones writing an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today saying AI may become the third superpower. Quote, the threat is real, he wrote, while referencing the potential of self-improving AI. meantime, the president and CEO of Y Combinator weighing in on this topic this afternoon during an interview with our very own Kate Rooney. She joins us now to tell us more about what Gary Tan said. Hi. So Scott, good to see you. We are at Y Combinator's demo day. So for those who don't know, this is a startup incubator that's famous for backing names like Stripe Bay backed OpenAI, Airbnb, a lot of big names in Silicon Valley. And this is the next generation of founders here and startups that we've been talking to this afternoon,

as well as Gary Tan himself. He really does have a bird's eye view on what is going on in AI. And, of course, did have thoughts on this entire debate around some of the doomsday scenarios. He pushed back on some of that rhetoric. Here's what he said. I think that we need to be focused on science fact, not science fiction. Why aren't we grounding this conversation in what is actually happening right now? I mean, the cybersecurity risk is real.

And the policy and the way both Democrat and Republican lawmakers should be looking at this is actually the lens directly coming out of what is happening right now. We don't need to be responding to a science fiction sort of fantasy about what's going to happen. And Scott, that does align with what Jensen Wong and Vidiya's CEO said at the Goldman Sachs conference. Today we're seeing headlines that he poured some cold water on what he described as the hysterical rhetoric around AI fears. And again, the worst-case scenario, human extinction-level events that people are now saying is possible with AI. Speaking of that, we did also get news this afternoon. Anthropic put out about 100-page report on this. Part of that was this risk of bioweapons.

They said they have blocked possible efforts to build biological weapons with Claude using Claude, and it is a real threat. I mean, we talk about this, but Anthropic outlining really how this is happening and the steps that they've taken behind the scenes to shut this down. But I will say this is about as optimistic as a group as you can get. I mean, these are the founders that are using AI every day. They're saying that they're able to build startups in a much leaner, cheaper way. We're seeing a lot of former SpaceX folks, and I would say the theme out of this and what folks should pay attention to in terms of what the next thing is in AI, it's physical

AI. So it's robotics. We're seeing a lot of drone and defense startups out here. One person told me it's because they want to do. what they feel like is defensible against anthropic in the AI labs. What they can't basically, what can't be copied by an anthropic, that is physical hardware, and that's what we're seeing out here. Finally, Scott, one more comment from Gary Tan, I think is interesting.

He said none of this in terms of AI and the impact on society is going to happen overnight. He said it's going to take decades to permeate through society, which is interesting and I think a much longer timeline than maybe we would have thought a couple of years ago. So he's sort of saying there's time to figure this out. Kate, I appreciate that very much. Thank you. That's Kate Rooney. Now let's bring in big technologies. Alex Kanchowitz. He's also a CNBC contributor. Welcome back. Have we drifted too far into science fiction and away from science fact? I think we have. I mean, this idea, so the idea that some of the ex and even current anthropic employees are advancing that there's a 10% chance of AI wiping us out over some time. They're advancing these probabilities like it's rooted in science and it's rooted in math. It's not. It's numbers that are made up and just speculating. based off of what's going to happen. And remember, today's technology can barely order you a pizza. So I think we need to hold our horses a little bit in terms of what has spun out of it, which is that AI poses a risk that is, you know, a lot of people are taking this as it's likely to harm humans and it's likely to wipe us out. And so certainly this story has sort of left containment. And it's now spread into places like Washington and governor's mansions across the United States and could be a turning point where we end up seeing, you know,

pauses or kill switches debated in a much more serious fashion than they have been to date. So the idea that even some on the quote-unquote inside are raising these alarms at a time when they're also the industry, tech itself, is being criticized for the amount of distrust that's out there in the public domain now. how does tech reconcile with all of that? I think it's trying, at least some within that industry or trying to be out there a little more, like Jensen Wong, as Kate was talking about at the Communicopia conference. Brad Gershner was in the room, had to have been,

because he posted on X with a photo about Jensen's comments, calling that anthropic researchers' comments outlandish and, quote, deeply untrue, said the comments were wrong, arrogant, and ignorant of all the work being done. That's how Brad Gersner paraphrased part of what Jensen had to say. So those on the inside are raising some alarms. Those on the inside are also trying to come to the rescue to sort of tamp down the hysteria. What do you make of that? Well, on the risk side, you're looking at a perfect storm here, right? Because AI was unpopular

coming into this week. People didn't like data centers. They don't like this idea that AI is going to take your jobs. The idea that AI might kill you or your children wasn't even part of the discussion. And now it firmly is. So all the worries about the government getting involved and stopping the progress that we're manifesting up until now, now they're even worse, right? Now they're even more concrete. Meanwhile, you have so much money that's been plowed into this. You know, whether it's NVIDIA's market cap, whether it is the Open AI and anthropic IPOs that are imminent and looking like they might be at $2 trillion. For all this to work, many ways, a lot of this needs to go perfect. And when you start to have these worries injected,

it starts to take that perfect pathway and disrupt it. And so that's why you're seeing Jensen and, you know, Brad Gerson are amplifying this. The industry is going to push back on this extremely hard. But there are legitimate concerns, right? I mean, Paul Tudor Jones is not a hysterical human being. It's a measured, thoughtful person who's seen a lot and over the years, obviously, and specifically, it seems, talking about self-improving AI and suggesting that the threat is real. Now, if you read his op-ed and then you see what Anthropic itself posted a couple hours ago, we published this, I'm reading directly from them,

we published our most detailed threat intelligence report to date. It covers how people tried to misuse Claude for cyber attacks, influence operations, surveillance, biology, and building weapons, and how we found and stopped them. We disrupted every operation in the report. That's great. Thank God. We don't want it to get to a point where they can't,

but that just shows you the risks and the kinds of things that people like Paul Tudor Jones, not hysterically, are talking about. Yeah, and I'm not saying there's no risk. There's definitely risk. I mean, even with the hugging face incident that we've seen, you know, come out over the past month, some of this stuff is extremely concerning. And we've seen the power of these AIs to work together in swarms, like the Open AI effort that solved the Millennium Problem.

My only request to the AI industry and for the dialogue is that there's got to be a way to separate some of the things that you're seeing with the extrapolations that are going on. Because we saw the hugging face incident happen, does it mean that AI has a better chance of wiping out humanity? I wouldn't say so. Like, let's try to be, and I'm just talking about, like, you know, when people are talking about this in public, and it goes to the researchers, it goes to everybody, including people. Paul Tudor Jones. Let's make sure that when we're going to say statements about what's going

to happen, like recursive self-improvement hasn't proven that it's going to be the case, AI approving other AIs. We don't have any evidence that that is going to come. So as opposed to saying it will certainly come and it's going to be a third superpower, and check some doubt in there. It's possible. And if it does happen, here's what we might want to do. But I would much prefer that type of tone as opposed to it will definitely come. And therefore, this is what Briefly, what does it mean from a regulatory standpoint, the idea of somebody having to regulate all of this or the self-regulation that others say can easily be done from the industry itself? How do we reconcile that? Well, you know, it's very different from the tech clash that we saw where we had federal agencies that, you know, sort of the FTC and the DOJ that were looking at the power of big tech and trying to rein it in and ultimately ended up doing nothing.

because from a regulation standpoint, self-regulation in many areas is sort of out of the way. Because you now have local municipalities, free market conservatives in Texas, saying we don't want to go ahead and support the building of data centers in our neighborhood. So this could happen slowly but surely on a local level and then eventually spiral into something bigger. And again, when you think about how perfect the path to IPO, needs to be for Open AI and Anthropic that could certainly block that perfection and put obstacles that will make it harder for this momentum to continue. We knew we needed your insights today. Thanks for coming by. I appreciate that. Alex Kanchowitz joining us. The former Anthropic and Open AI researcher,

Jacob Coxon, by the way, who sounded the alarm on AI this week. We'll be live on CNBC tomorrow. That is 11.30 a.m. Eastern Time, certainly one not to miss. Up next, we tracked the biggest movers as we head into the close. Pippa Stevens is standing by with that. Hi, Pips. Hey, it's got two chip stocks are in the green on an otherwise down day for the sector. The names to watch coming up next. All right, we'll tend to the bell back to Pippa Stevens now for the stocks that are moving into the close. What do you see? Well, American Eagle Outfiters is tumbling some 15 percent despite posting a Q2 beat. Comparable sales for the quarter fell more than expected, and the company expects operating income for the current quarter to come in below street account

estimates. Those shares are down 46 percent so far on the year. Meantime, Skyworks and Corvo in the green while the broader chip sector falls, the two semiconductor names supply components for Apple's iPhones and are likely getting a boost following Wednesday's iPhone 18 and foldable iPhone unveiling. Skyworks and Corvo announced a merger last year, and Skyworks, the CEO said in July he is optimistic that it will close within the calendar year, though shares up nearly 11%. Scott. Thank you very much.

Pippa, thank you very much. Pippa Stevens. Coming up next, what to watch for when Oracle and Adobe, they report an overtime. We'll take in the zone next. We're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Maryland Bank of America's Marcy McGregor. Here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus Oliver Renick, always standing by live from the Cibo Global Markets in Chicago.

Options action coming up. Cimamodi has the setup for Oracle and Adobe. Those critical results are in overtime. Michael, you first. You know, the stock market, Scott, keeps processing these very dramatic moves in other asset classes into relatively muted activity. Now, it's definitely struggled to get it. got of its own way recently. Today's low in the S&P goes all the way back to late May.

So you're talking about a three or four month trading range at this point. Arguably, maybe equities are underreacting or at least just that beneficial rotation is keeping a real flush from happening. I do think also it's kind of suspended to a degree ahead of CPI tomorrow. So I think the hope is it gives certainty in one direction or the other on the Fed. if there's anything like a cooler number, obviously, you know, bonds could get some relief there. But, you know, nobody has a high conviction to bet on that today. Yeah, you got less than five minutes. I mean, until your show, you guys, I'm assuming where you're going to be tackling pretty heavy, plus the earnings coming up in OT.

All of that, plus the earnings. We also have the CEO of Freeport MacMoran coming on. It was a pretty big day for Copper as well today. Yeah, Freeport was getting hit pretty good, last I saw. Good stuff. Mike, thanks. That's Mike Santoli. Oliver, Cibot. What do you see?

Options traders are pounding what they've seen as a vulnerable area of the bond market, Scott. It's been weeks. The high-yield corporate ETF, HyG sees a lot of bearish flow. And today, at least one trader doubled down on deeper selling for the ETF. They used four legs each with 37 and a half thousand put contracts, three of which look like clear bearish positions. They bought $1.5 million of the 77 strike puts expiring November 20th. About $800,000 of the same strike in October 16th and $375,000 of the 72 strike puts expiring in November.

Hyg is only down 2.5% this year roughly, but this is a $2.5 million bearish bet that things are going to get worse for corporates over the next one to two months as Treasury yields blow out. Oliver appreciate that. It's Oliver Renick. I'll go to Seaman now. I'm just looking at Oracle Seema down 5% going into this number. Yeah, and Scott, investors want to know how rising political backlash against data centers is impacting the company's pipeline, specifically a site in New Mexico where OpenAI is a tenant. The state has raised concerns around water and air pollution. The question really for Oracle does management characterize this project as on schedule? And is this issue isolated or illustrative of a broader challenge facing the AI infrastructure buildout? Commons could have implications for other AI players like the Nebius and Corweave, the hyperscalers, Amazon and Microsoft that are pointing. billions into data center development.

Scott, this report does mark roughly one year since Oracle surprised the market with that $300 billion open AI deal, which sent shares up by 36% in one day. Investors will want an update on its relationship with the AI lab as well as its latest financing plans, right, following that $20 billion equity issuance plan. We'll watch for that. Seema, thanks so much. That in Adobe, of course. Don't forget about that.

We'll see Seema again in overtime. Marcy, I'll pivot to you. I'm looking squarely at WTI right now, above one. 102, Brent pushing 109, got yields moving higher today. Time to be cautious about that or not? I think we're going to have some weeks of September seasonality here in equity markets, but the reaction has been fairly muted. As long as fundamentals are intact, and I mean earnings, and we're seeing earnings momentum continuing not just in the second half of this year, but into 27. Earnings revision ratios are now above one globally, all-time highs in Japan, five-year highs in the U.S.

That tells me a story that the fundamentals are intact. So I would fade some of the noise. We keep saying follow the trend lines, not the headlines, because that's what really matters here. Dip buyer, you would be? Would you urge people to be because the trend's still intact in terms of earnings? Absolutely. I just think this is a little bit of a loss of momentum

and a rotational market more than anything. So September weakness, we know it's notoriously a week month. I would be a dip buyer here. Once you get through midterms, you tend to get market strength into the end of the year, and frankly, for the next six and 12 months historically. What areas of the market look the most attractive to you if they were to lose a little bit more momentum? I like U.S. equities large and small. I know small caps have held up pretty well, not in the last couple of days, but have held up pretty well despite the loss of momentum here. And I would look outside of the U.S. emerging markets specifically if we are overly concentrated in U.S. markets.

Think EM. In the U.S., if you're overly concentrated in tech, I would think dividend-paying stocks. I like financials for deregulation, loan growth, NIA growth. And I like health care. This has been the one sector that has been lagging on the earnings side. We see a recovery coming. And then industrials. That's a story about capex and backlogs, but also aerospace and defense. Talk to you soon. Thanks for being with us. That's Marcy McGregor joining us. So bell's about to ring. You can see on the right-hand to your screen. We'll be read across the board. We're led lower by the Russell that backup and yields and certainly having an impact there. A story dominated today by oil and yields and stock paying a bit of the price for those higher moves on the inflation data. More coming tomorrow.

Let's see. I'll see you then. Let's send it into overtime.