Closing Bell - Closing Bell: AI Under the Microscope 11/11/25

Episode Date: November 11, 2025

A flurry of AI headlines have investors talking today. Deirdre Bosa breaks all of those down for us – and we discuss with our panel Trivariate’s Adam Parker, New York Life Investment’s Lauren Goodwin and JPMorgan’s Jordan Jackson. Plus, of all the mega-cap companies dolling out hundreds of billions in cap-ex, Apple has escaped much of that scrutiny. The company has often been criticized for being late to the AI party… but could that be a blessing in disguise? We break that down with Steve Kovach and Big Technology’s Alex Kantrowitz. And, AMD held its first analyst day in years. We run through the biggest headlines and what it could mean for the stock.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, Brian, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker break hour begins with AI under the microscope from another burry blowback to soft banks, see ya on invidia, to the hyperscalor debt double down. Is the most popular trade in the market still a sure bet? We'll ask our experts over this final stretch. Here's the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation. The Dow is by far the big winner today. Take a look at that. Almost 1.2%. We're good for for almost 600 points. Healthcare, energy, consumer staples leading the way today. And speaking of that AI trade,

shares of CoreWeave are selling off. The company cutting its guidance on supply chain issues, shares falling by about 16%. Meta's chief AI scientist is leaving to focus on his own startup. Shares are down about 1%. Elsewhere, shares of Estee Lauder are higher on an upgrade. And how about FedEx shares midday jumping?

The company raising its guidance at a conference. Market likes it. We're good for about 6% there. takes us to our talk of the tape. All Things AI, as a flurry of headlines, have investors talking once again today. So is Dear Jibosa. She joins us now with that story, Dee. No slow days in AI, right, Scott? So the AI is still the market's favorite trade, but cracks are starting to show. You mentioned some of them. SoftBank cashing out on NVIDIA raises fresh valuation questions. Burry's warning is aimed at the mega caps that are carrying

the broader markets. And the move to borrowing is turning AI from a growth story into a leverage story. That's what makes this moment different. The easier initial gains from the hype and the multiple expansion, that may now be behind us. As investors, they're weighing the cost of keeping the boom alive. Now, this chart, you see, it's meta versus alphabet over the last few months, and it really sums up a shift in the AI trade. The market is rewarding players like Google that are selling basic AI services. Meta, on the other hand, where spending is outpacing revenue gains, that's being punished for promises without payoff. Another way putting it is tools and services versus a vision and the market right now wants to see results. Scott,

debt, meanwhile, that is certainly reshaping what powers the AI trade and it's adding more risk. The buildout, it's no longer being fueled by venture capital or profits, its loans, its bonds, it's private credit, and that gives bears like Michael Burry more ammunition. Dee, thank you. As always, dear Jibosa, with the perfect setup. Now we bring in CNBC contributor, Adam Parker, of Trivariate Research, New York Life Investments, Lauren Goodwin, and JPMorgan's Jordan Jackson. One in all, it is great to have everybody here. So what's the story here? So, you know, Burry talks about artificially boosting earnings. Softbank says SIA on their Nvidia. Now they're putting the money in Open AI and some other places, but nonetheless, they look at all the money that they've made and said, okay, maybe we're taking it all. off the table and then we're borrowing a lot of money here. Is there a problem? So time around, how are you? Nice to see you. Happy veterans today. God bless America. Yeah, yeah. Look, I think it's all time horizon. If you're looking out at data center cap-x, cumulatively it's been, what, $4.5,500 billion and we're headed to a trillion by 27.

So things are going 100% in the next 18 months. It's definitely not the end of the AI trade. You're going to have episodic situations. People either collect profits or they reallocate. I'm not surprised. That's why most of what we've been writing about is how do I diversify from the AI trade. The S&P 500 is an AI index. Okay, 55% beta adjusted is the big eight names. So you're always going to try to diversify away. Our top sector versus the veguates health care. Do we write off these issues? I mean, do it, is it just a coincidence? It has anything to do with time like Invidia, SoftBank getting out. Burry's been posting a lot on social media, just issues about bubbles and are we artificially?

inflating earnings, debt, like we're raising a lot of debt to help fund the AI infrastructure build out. For sure. It never matters until it does. But is this one of the moments where we should sit back, pause, and say, okay, maybe I should pay attention to some of these things a little more closely? Look, we always pay attention closely. The question is, do you position a portfolio for this being the end of the AI trade today?

The answer is no. We know eventually this cycle ends like every cycle from two things, arrogance and debt. You're seeing more debt. That's a sign you've got to watch out, Oracle, CDS, everything that everyone's watching. Is there arrogance? These circular deals. I don't think enough yet. They do all these kind of deals, and we look at them like, what's up with that?

And they're like, nothing to see here. I didn't love the criticizing the short sellers before your public speech from Altman last week. That felt a little hubristic on the meter. Yeah, right? If the arrogance debt were a stock, it's up off lows, okay? But I don't think we want to sell it yet just because the power of the, the growth and the spending is still there. We all know what ends the cycle. Nine months before it, the stocks will anticipate the overbuild and the data center. I don't think it's 26 or 27. It's

probably something after that. And still, there's still pretty good money to make with all this kind of, you know, top line growth. That's my view. What do you think? I completely agree. I think we are seeing not canaries in the coal mine, but rather a healthy reality check. And when I look at the setup for 2026, what I see is interest rates on the short end moving lower, growth outlook looking pretty good company earnings have been resilient. That's a backdrop in which leverage, especially in AI, is likely to build, but I don't see that as a 2026 problem. We are building leverage from very low and healthy levels. And so maybe we're setting up for a late cycle situation in 2027, even 2028, but I do not see that as a 2026 challenge. We have a problem anywhere as it relates to

this trade, or are we just good? And these are smart people just raising some issues that we can have a nice conversation about. Well, I think you also have to look at is dead as a percentage of overall enterprise value. And right now with these larger companies with the strength of their balance sheets, these are not levels that are necessarily concerning to us at the current currently. Now look, if we run into 2027, 2028 and some of these companies aren't able to deliver on some of these projects, that's where, you know, things are going to start to get concerned, particularly again if this leverage continues to build up and now the House of Cards crumbles, so to speak. Well, look, that's funny you say, all right, we're talking, you said 27 and

28 or it's 25 that's so that says the runway for all of this is still very long it goes back to even those like you know paul tudor jones a month or so ago on on this network was like yeah this is it it has echoes of of 99 uh if it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck it's probably not a chicken right that that's what he said but but you don't want to miss out on what's going to be a really good trade even for the next couple of years it sounds like you're saying kind of the same thing? I think so. When you look at historical bull markets, let's just say bull markets that translate into bubble territory, you tend to see runups of around 350 to 400 percent, roughly on average. Now, this run up over the last two and a half years, 200 percent, roughly speaking or so,

so there's still some upside. And if you're looking at your clients in 18 months time and you've left a lot of returns on the table, you know, you're probably going to be kicking yourself that you didn't participate. Oh, that's a good point that he raises. What about like the chase for performance into year-end because, you know, if you're a portfolio manager, you can only get so big in these names, but then your clients are like, dude, like, why did we miss out on the big gains that everybody else had this year? If you tell your clients, hey, you know, I didn't own this AI stuff because it was kind of expensive, I don't think that's a healthy year-end conversation over it, you know,

big giant banks and life insurance company. So I think you've got to be careful, balance that risk with other things that you can generate alpha. But, look, none of us know how to time the end of this thing. But what we do know is that the data center spend for the next 12, 18 months is pretty solid and it's going to double. So you still feel like we're early innings. Forget about trying to call the ninth. Right.

But it still feels like from what everybody on this desk says, we're still pretty early innings in this whole thing. I think we're fourth inning fundamentally and sixth inning stockwide. Obviously, the market's anticipatory. And that's why I said you've got to get out nine months before, something like that. We always get increasingly anticipatory each cycle. But right now, the pillars of, I'm dreaming of productivity from all these companies, they're going to predict their employee behavior, they're going to predict their customer behavior, they're going to drive out costs, increased productivity.

That's on the come late in 26 and the 27, and I got to double-skew to the Fed. So somebody's got to change one of those two pillars for me to say, hey, I'm going to go buy bonds or whatever. What's that other asset class? Bonds? Gold? Yeah, one of those things. Let's pivot for a moment. We'll come right back. The bill to end the government shutdown heading to the House now, Emily Wilkins, on Capitol Hill,

with the very latest there. Hi, M. Hey, Scott. Well, yeah, House members look right now they are making their way back to D.C. For the first time in more than 50 days to vote tomorrow afternoon to reopen the government. We're expecting that around 4 p.m. might be a little later. And look, if there's any sign that this will not pass, we haven't seen it yet. It seems full speed ahead. Granted, Republicans, they can only afford to lose two members, but that's what they lost last time. And remember, they actually had one Democrat joined them.

And Trump has already congratulated Republicans on reopening. the government, so again, lots of momentum there in this getting done tomorrow, which means we're now looking ahead. The Senate is now trying to see if there is any path on extending those Affordable Care Act tax credits, but Republicans are eyeing bigger changes to Obama's signature health care law. Republican Senator Eric Schmidt said part of the goal would be defined way to limit the funds that can go to insurance companies. There's a lot of people talking about stuff, but listen, we've got a lot of work to do that isn't just centered on, you know, the Democrats' idea of what subsidies for insurance

companies look like. Because remember, this is tens of billions of dollars that go directly to insurance companies. And they pocket the profits. Premiums haven't come down. So Obamacare, like I said, is fundamentally flawed. Zoom promised Democrats that they will get a vote on a bill if they're choosing to extend the tax credits in mid-December. That's sometimes the lifetime on Capitol Hill. But when it comes to putting together complex legislation, really not much time at all. So we'll be following what, if anything, they're able to come up with. Scott?

All right. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins, as you see, just off Capitol Hill for us. All right, so, Lauren, we got this noise out of the way, it looks like, right? Government's going to reopen. We can stop thinking about that and start focusing on what really is going to happen between now and the end of the year. We set up, are we set up pretty good, you think? I do think we're set up well. We have a Fed that is in a sort of cutting or easing impulse, including with quantitative easing ending here in a couple of weeks.

Earning season is just about over. Results have been quite good. And I'd argue that the setup that we have with the government shut down ending this week still leaves room for a separate Santa Claus Rally towards the end of the year. So we see full steam ahead through the end of the year and a constructive backdrop for the first half of 2026. Does the Fed play a role in this, Jordan, between now and the end of the year? Like in December, they have a chance to add a little more. gas to the rally in December, or maybe they pull the rug out from under everybody?

There's some risk for the rug to be pulled out. Clearly, Powell doesn't like to operate monetary policy while we're operating in a bit of a data fog, right? And I think you can't put your hat on a lot of data that we get coming out of October because the data just hasn't been collected. And so I think there's a possibility that, you know, I still think there's another cut on the table, but perhaps they skip December, they wait until January to move before they've got some more reliable data. I still think this is a Fed that's biased toward easing. The big wildcard is how much they ease, particularly next year in 2026.

Markets have them getting down at 3%. I think they go in December and January and they're done after that. Does December matter, do you think? I mean, I think what matters is, are we one to two cuts from the end or is it more? If he's right that we're done in January and that is not a consensus of you today but becomes one, that would make one of the two pillars a little weaker for sure, because I think people think the skew is dubbish beyond January but longer. But he makes a great point.

Like, we don't have government data. So we're going to get a bunch coming in. And by the way, are we on until January 30 and then we're off again? And we don't have – you know, there's a little bit of uncertainty about the data we're getting in on the jobs front. I think their biases to stay, dovish. And, you know, look, the data show when we have a strong Q1 through Q3, on average, Q4 is good. I think everyone knows that, and you can get a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. I will say the weaknesses in earnings season I see were really in the consumer spending side.

And if you look across restaurants, cruises, some of the more discretionary stuff, it's terrible. We went down the list on halftime today. There were probably 25 to 30 names in front of me where they either, comps were bad, the guidance was bad. Magic commentary, yeah, for sure. Massive, K-shaped economy going on here. 100%.

Yeah, and look, that's, you know, we talked about, I think I got a little carried away when I said Coles was obviously zero a couple years in the air, but there's those kind of businesses. You can get carried away from time to time. Yeah, a little bit. But I like it a little lathered up, but that's our biggest. underweight discretionary. I still think, you know, our short ideas we pitched on the beginning of the year, Chipotle, sprouts. I don't think you want to do discretionary stuff in this

environment because there's too many things that are slowing. But does that mean 41.2% is the big eight? I think you want to own those, right? So I think you can still be constructive. The market ends higher this year. And then we'll see about the Fed and the AI productivity next year. I think it's too early to get, you know, bullish for, you know, forever. If I told you that you could not talk about anything related to tech and AI, what would you do? What would you do? What would talk about that you like the best? We are spending a lot of time right now thinking about diversification for our clients. This is a, I would say, high conviction growth market over the next six months, but some of your other key drivers of portfolios, like yields, like the dollar, are really

at odds with just unforecastable policy change. And so we are taking benchmark weight with the S&P 500, staying invested, but using the marginal dollar to buy a into some of the cyclical trades, like small caps, like value, to balance with some gold, to really bring, I'll use the unspoken word that Adam used earlier, bonds. We're quite constructive on credit in the first half of the year, specifically in high yield. So we're using the sort of extra cash, let's say, to build some portfolio balance. What about you? Well, I very much agree a lot with what Lauren said.

This is probably going to be an environment with the yield curve continues to steepen out. But it's going to twist steeper, right? I think we're a little bit bearish on duration in the long end of the curve, but the Fed still probably has another, you know, one or two cuts in the chamber. And in that environment, that's supportive of credit markets, that tends to be supportive for financials and value. I think some components of the OBBBA are going to bode well for industrials and some CAPEX. And so, you know, I do agree some of that kind of cyclical value. And then perhaps maybe a bit of a contrarian view against kind of Adam's point earlier, in an environment, where refund checks, potentially, you know, larger refund checks,

tariff checks, that's going to boost the consumer. We may start to see a bit of an uptick and some of the consumer. We'll see. You never want to write anything off in this administration. The tax will help. I'd say quickly on that, look, the mega large cap universe in the U.S. is 80% growth, 5% value, and 15% kind of in between. So you can't be a mega large cap value investor.

That's not a thing. I think the most contrarian idea we have, it's been wrong until the last three months. it's worked as health care. I think the market's told me zero percent chance health care is the best four-week sector in the market over the next five years. I think it's like 30 or 40 percent. So I want a position for that. And I like how it acts on days where people are selling some of the AI trade. I think it's pretty diversifying. So that's kind of the area I'm focusing. Well, it's leading today. Great conversation. Thanks everybody for being able to see everybody

again soon. Joe Christina Parts of us now for look at the biggest names moving into the closed today. Hey, Christina. Hi, Scott. Well, let's start with shares of the Real Real. Those are soaring right now, 36% after the online reseller raised its full year guidance. AI also played a role. The firm expects AI to handle up to 40% of all items processed by the end of the year. Its younger demographic and demand for secondhand luxury goods also driving shares higher. Shares of center space popping 11% after report that the real estate company is exploring a potential sale. The report says the company is working with advisors as it fields takeover interest. But talks are early and center space could remain independent. Shares are up about 12%,

but slipped around 1% so far this year. And lastly, Coinbase shares are pulling back on a fortune report that the company is calling off its $2 billion deal for stable coin startup, BVNK. It isn't immediately clear why Coinbase ended up, ended the talks, which became exclusive last month. And that's why you're seeing shares down about 4%. Both of these reports just coming out right now, Scott. All right, good stuff. Christina, thanks back to you in just a bit. We're just getting started.

Up next on this Veterans Day, we're sitting down with the men behind a veteran-owned and operated investment bank. Chance Mims and Phil McConkey join us right here post nine after the break. Welcome back on this Veterans Day. We salute those who have served our great country here at the New York Stock Exchange Academy Securities. A veteran-owned and operated investment bank will ring the closing bell today. Joining us now at Post 9, Chance Mims, founder and CEO of Academy, along with the firm's president, and former New York Giants, great Phil McConkey. It's great to have you guys back in what has been a tradition for us, and we're so happy about it.

Thank you for having us. I'd love to hear from both of you because what matters most to me is hearing from you about what this day means to you. Phil, you go first. Well, personally, not only did we serve and the great veterans, but I have a daughter that just graduated from the United States Naval Academy. Wow. This past May, her name is May, and she's actually at the basic school in Quantico, Virginia right now. I'm going to be a Marine Corps officer because he's a lot tougher than her dad.

You managed to do okay. We could talk about a little football later, of course, but what about you, Chance? I got to tell you, Veterans Day is absolutely incredibly meaningful to me. our firm being military veterans run and owned, you know, but it's bigger than just veterans. I mean, it's an all-volunteer force, the best U.S. military, the best military force in the history of the world, and it's all volunteer, and it's incredible. And so it's about to celebrate the United States as well and the opportunities we have here. For those who don't know, how would you describe the ethos of Academy?

Well, you know, owned and operate by military veterans, so we're bringing in military veterans right out of the military, and that's really what we're going after. We're going after the culture that they bring from coming out of the military. leadership that they learn there, that, you know, that, you know, they're touching technology, they're, you know, team players about, and they're about service. You know, they didn't sign up for the paycheck in the military. They signed out up to be about something bigger than themselves. So any company out there would want that to be able to change the culture, improve the culture from the inside out of their company. It's incredible opportunity.

How would you define that? Yeah, that's one part of, you know, of what makes us so efficient in what we do, especially for our customers. It's adding value, you know, hiring, training, mentoring, transitioning military veterans is, you know, again, that one part of it. The other is adding this differentiated value. We've got three dozen now subject matter experts, ex-admars and generals who have their finger on the pulse of the geostrategic risk landscape. So when you're making investment decisions, when you're trying to figure out, you know, when your next transaction is and something flares up in the Straits of Hermuz, you know, we become the go-to entity on Wall Street for big and small firms to understand geopolitics.

We always talk, I mean, we always think about geopolitics. They're always in, in the, the news sometime more in the periphery than right in front of our faces. But what area of the world concerns you right now, whatever relationships, strategic or otherwise we have, things that are festering out there that are on your mind or keep you up at night? China, what they're trying to do, you know, the war, you know, with Russia right now. I mean, those are two big areas. I think the Chinese threat is a big one that we've all got to be concerned about and worried about. But with China, I think, you know, they haven't been involved in a conflict in, you know, however many years. And, you know, I think they could see some of the problems that the Soviet Union and Russia is having going over a land bridge.

You know, they talk about maybe taking over Taiwan. That's, you know, 100 miles of open ocean gives them hopefully maybe, you know, doubt in their minds that they could execute properly after they see the issue that Russia is having. Part of what you celebrate today, I mean, this is a hat for the VETS ETF that you have to your anniversary, because I think we announced it on this program at the time, and also a billion-dollar AUM. You're over a billion dollars now. What is actually in the VETs, ETF, for those who don't know? Yeah, so we're doing loans to U.S. service members and to military veterans, so home loans, VA loans to military-owned veterans. We're also doing loans, SBA loans to military-owned and veteran-owned businesses.

And so that's something so near and dear to our hearts. This is something that's about our company. You know, this is the American dream. We're investing in the American dream so others can experience it like we did. You know, we bought houses in expensive areas. The Navy's located in very expensive areas. We went on to be able to pull equity out of those homes to go start businesses. And that is something that's, you know, that's what Veteran Days represents right there.

You know, it's honoring the men and women once they get out of the military and continue to set them up for success. You have a market view? Yeah, so we're upstairs right now. We have 120 people right upstairs in the big border room as we speak. We have our geopolitical intelligence group up there right now, talking to some of the largest corporations,

asset managers, a lot of it's around geopolitics, but also artificial intelligence. I heard you talking about that earlier. Well, we can't talk about it every minute of every day, it feels like. So we're talking about that from a geopolitical standpoint and security standpoint. So we're talking a lot about production

for security. So the U.S. and having to make sure that we're producing stuff here that affects national, protects our national security. We think that that's going to be something that's a big area of growth. You know, you look at, you know, data centers, you look at artificial intelligence, you look at energy. That's very important that, you know, that we are having control of some of those areas here in the United States, and it's not outsourced somewhere else. And so we're having a lot of conversations with some big corporations, big ass of managers upstairs right now. Should we talk some ball for a minute? Let's go. Bring on. I mean, you guys, you got headcount.

coach problems now, right? Former New York Giant, great. Touchdown in the Super Bowl, of course. What's going on? Yo, if you have a quarterback in today's NFL, you have hope. And I think the Giants have a quarterback. I really like Jackson Dart. I think that's the first place you've got to start.

But again, they're at rock bottom, you know, another head coach, a difficult situation. But if you're a fan, you're an optimist. I'm a fan. I'm optimistic with this quarterback. I think we're going to get this right. You wear the blue, you're a fan forever, I assume, correct? Yeah, it doesn't leave you. Well, we're a fan of yours, too.

We appreciate you guys being here. Thank you so much. Thank you, Scott. We see you guys. On this Veterans Day. Enjoyed the bell as well up on the balcony up there. Still ahead, AMD's ambitious outlook. The company holding its first analyst day in many years.

We have those details coming up. And as we head to break a quick note next week, I'll be in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, at the CNBC CEO Council Forum. A deep dive we will have with top executives, innovators, celebrities, and even Rory McElroy at the home of the TMRW Golf League. If you'd like to learn how to be a part of our council and be a part of this event, visit CNBC councils.com.

The bell's coming right back. All coming up next, Apple's blessing in disguise, the headline around AI spend that got us talking today. Kovac and Kanchowicz, they are standing by to discuss as well. The bell will be right back. All right, welcome back. Of all the mega-cap tech companies doling out hundreds of billions in CAPX, one name has escaped much of that scrutiny. Apple often criticized for being late to the AI party. Might that now be a bit of a blessing?

We're joined now by CNBC tech reporter Steve Kovac and Big Technologies, Alex Ketiewicz, a CNBC contributor, of course. Mr. Kovac, I'll come to you first. Oh, how things change in perception. we're obsessing over all this money being spent by the hyperscalers. And Apple's like, wait, we haven't spent that much. We haven't spent that much. They are saying that, but they are saying, Scott, that they are spending more than they ever have before.

And I'm glad we're talking about this now because this kind of got overlooked during earnings. We're getting so excited about that boost in iPhone sales. But take a look at the operating expenditures. Now, on the earnings call, just a couple weeks ago, Kevin Perak, he's the CFO of Apple. He was talking a lot about the increase in operating. and tied that to research and development and more specifically artificial intelligence. It was up 11% year over year for that September quarter, and it's going to jump up to 20% in the December quarter now. Again, all of that for AI. And by the way, when we talk about CAPEX,

though, and the data center part of the equation, they are building their own servers for that, but they're not spending tens of thousands of dollars on Nvidia chips. Apple intelligence runs on the same chips that power MacBook and Mac computers. So they're able to do that for, let's call it, hundreds of dollars per chip instead of tens of thousands of dollars per chip. And we also know that they're talking to Gemini, potentially other partners, Google, that is, Google's Gemini product, to run on those servers more efficiently than perhaps they can run

on these big, giant data centers that all the others are spending so much on, Scott. I mean, we're showing, let's put the wall back up, guys, if you could please, because, I mean, it really tells the whole story. You look at the total spend of $101 billion. And there's Apple all the way on the right, $3.5 billion. A.K., what do you make of that? Well, they are spending more,

but I don't quite know what they're getting for the money. And also, I do think it's a liability. If Apple strategy is, hey, we're not going to try to develop AI internally and we're just going to buy our AI from Google, you're really trusting your destiny when it comes to AI to a different company. I don't think that's a wise move. We see that Microsoft, which has just freed itself up from open AI's restrictions that it wasn't able to go out and try to pursue artificial general intelligence or superintelligence, really what that means is powerful AI. The second they signed that deal.

Now, the head of Microsoft AI, Mustafa Suleiman, is talking about pursuing superintelligence because, as he put it to me recently, if you're a $3 trillion, yeah, $3 trillion company, you don't want to leave this very important technology to someone else. Now, Apple is a $4 trillion company. I think it makes sense to invest to try to make this work for whatever reason they haven't gone in as far as the others have. And for now, that looks great. But the question is what happens over time. I mean, Steve, I guess they have arguably the best balance sheet of the group easily. I mean, they're sitting on like a amount of effort of cash, right? Yeah, about $200 billion.

And look, we make this joke all the time before we even started to talk about AI. Their biggest acquisition is already always their own stock through buybacks and so forth. They're not an acquisitive company, at least in a significant way. They buy small companies. But I want to go back to what Alex was saying in all this development about AGI or super intelligence or whatever you call it. That is very nebulous, and that is not an area Apple likes to play in. We already know, let's go back to this relationship with Google. We already know that's been an enormously successful partnership for benefiting Apple.

They don't have to build their own search engine. They collect $20 billion or more per year from Google that drives margins in their services business. And also, like, looking back at just the product side of things, we have, there's no one but really chat GPT and OpenAI that has created an AI product that tens or hundreds of millions of people want to use every day. Apple hasn't done it. None of these hyperscalers have done it. Microsoft hasn't done it yet, even though they're trying to. And so using another technology until this path becomes sort of more clear, not AGI, not superintelligence, whatever you want to call it, seems like a smarter move in the meantime,

and they can do it in a less capital-intensive way. That doesn't mean they're slowing down. Again, I point back to the R&D spend that's going up enormously. And by the way, the CFO also said on the call, they're able to do that because their margins continue to expand because of the strength of the services business. So they're able to spend a lot more on those operating expenditures and R&D. Will something come out of it? Who knows?

But we don't know if anything's going to come out of this enormous spending from all these other guys, too. And since AK, we're talking about all this spending, we might as well talk about the growing level of debt. I mean, you can't talk about one without talking about the other now, whether it's an issue or not, isn't even really the question, I don't think. It's just how this big buildout is being financed. What do you make of that? I think it's dangerous. I think it's absolutely dangerous. And there are certain very legitimate questions that have been raised about whether all this spending and now borrowing is going to pay off. And all of Silicon Valley is chasing this dream of building this powerful AI technology. I mean, I use the terms AGI and superintelligence. They really are marketing terms. What they're trying to do is just build large language models, the form of generative AI that we have today that are super capable, capable of finding things for you,

capable of making transactions for you, capable of maybe doing your job for you. And so nobody really wants to be left out of that. And I do think we're seeing some extreme financial movements on some of these tech companies taking on a lot of debt, and that is dangerous, as we know. So those that are raising the alarm, I think, are right in their concern on that front. Some of the ones you cover too, Steve, you don't just cover Apple, of course. I'm sure you're taking a look at this and following it as well. Yeah, I follow Microsoft the closest of all of them.

And look, the same story keeps coming back from Microsoft is, because keep in mind, it's not just the Open AI relationship. They're hosting Anthropic models now. They're hosting GROC models now. They play around with everything. I believe Facebook's Lama as well. So, look, they keep telling us that they have the demand. The demand is there.

They have the guarantee from Open AI in a way that Oracle does not have guarantees in a way that so many of these other deals from Open AI, aren't guaranteed money. They're kind of aspirational numbers being thrown out, whereas Microsoft is playing a better or more strategic game in that they're partnering with different neoclouds overseas, and then also being very deliberate about the commitments they make in the cloud so they don't overextend themselves. And we've just seen them ramp up their spending because of that, Scott. Gentlemen, thank you. Mr. Kovac and Kanchowitz. We all enjoy it. We'll see you soon. Coming up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into this close once again.

Christina Parts of Nevelos is back to tell us what's at the top of the list. Quantum, because one name is falling despite better than expected earnings. And I also have a grocery delivery name jumping on a Wall Street upgrade. I promise we'll break down those names and, of course, more right after this break. 15 to the bell. Let's get back to Christina now for the stocks that she's watching. Tell us. Let's start with a look at Rigetti computing.

Those shares are falling about 4% right now after posting a Q3 earnings loss. They did come in smaller than expected, but operating losses actually increased quarter over quarter. Regetti bringing down other quantum stocks like Ion Q and quantum computing. You can see quantum computing. computing down almost 6%. Meanwhile, Instacart, those shares are moving the opposite direction

up above a little bit over 6% after Bank of Montreal, or BMO Capital Markets, I should say, upgraded the stock to outperform. The upgrade comes as Instacart posted Q3 profits and revenue that beat estimates. The online grocer is looking to expand its retailer partnerships and launch generative AI solutions to enhance user experience. So AI coming to the rescue. shares, though, lower about 3% so far this year. Finally, shares of Beyond meat falling roughly 9, almost 10% right now after issuing disappointing Q for guidance on a drop in sales. Beyond hasn't turned an annual profit since becoming the first pure playmaker of plant-based meat alternatives that went public back in 2019. Sales peaked in 2021, 2021 before falling sharply.

shares down 10% right now, Scott. All right, Christina, thank you very much. Christina parts of nevulus. coming up now Wells Fargo's Oshon Kwan he'll tell us as the Dow heads for a record close he'll join us next the market zone is next we are now in the closing bell market zone CnBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli and Wells Fargo securities Osang Kwan are here to break down these crucial moments of this trading day plus Phil Lebo looking at Boeing's orders and deliveries for the month of October and Christina Partesanbelos is back all over AMD's first analyst day since 2020. Your thoughts on this trading day today where the Dow is obviously the big standout? The Dow is the big standout represents kind of the slightly more defensive old economy tilt. You know, whether you want to call it selective, somewhat bifurcated, or just an elegantly rotating market, that's what we have. Noted that on the NASDAQ today, you have almost as many 52-week lows as highs when we're just a couple of percent from record high. So it shows you there's a winnowing happening.

You look at the split between, you know, within the Mag 7, it's kind of interesting. Apple qualifies as defensive these days within Mega Cap Tech. So maybe it's just the market's way of preserving the gains that were put on by the semis and the rest yesterday. But it is interesting as people try to find excuses to stay invested, but maybe don't have fresh, incremental, fundamental reasons to do so. All the way around for Invidia lately. I mean, last week, I got to get a clobbered. And yesterday had like the best game we've seen in a long time. And then today down another 3% on the soft bank news, presumably.

I mean, I just wondered if that was yesterday, just a little bit of a spillback from a 6% gain. I would hope, based on the market's ability to price relevant information, that it's not on soft bank last quarter selling 32 million shares on a stock that trades 180 million shares a day. You know, so it doesn't seem like that should be the pressure point. But I also think I'm not sure you want a $5 trillion almost market. company popping around 3 and 5% a day either, but so far it's worked for this market. Yeah, well, we have earnings coming up in about a week, so we shall see. Phil LeBow. Tell us more about Boeing, please. Another solid month for deliveries, and I know that's not sexy, Scott, but if you are a Boeing investor, that's what you want. 53 planes were delivered last month. That

brings the year-to-day total up to 493. Extrapolate over the last couple of months, and the expectation is they're going to deliver about 590 planes. By the way, that would be the most since 2018. And while it's not sexy, what you want is the steady increase in 737 max deliveries. They were up to 39 last month, year to date, 375. Remember, they've moved the production rate up to 42 per month. So what investors were looking for is 39, 40, 41, somewhere in that range in terms of monthly deliveries. Finally, their net orders came in at just eight planes last month.

No big deal. the year they've got more than 700. The backlog, by the way, it's got, it now stands at 5,911 planes. All right, Phil. Thank you very much for that. To Christina, the big headlines on AMD, the first day, the analyst day or investor day in three years. Yeah, and you really saw shares swing positive negative after CEO Lisa Sue laid out the company's AI strategy. Sue projected overall revenue will grow at about a 35% annual growth rate over the next three to five years. The AI data center business is expected to grow even faster at roughly 80% per year, reaching tens of billions of dollars in sales, this according to the company, by 2027.

Sue also raised AMD's forecast for the total AI addressable market, the TAM, to over $1 trillion, by 2030, which was up from $500 billion earlier this year. That huge jump is impressive, but the number now includes all AI chips, CPUs, and networking. So the market maybe thought it was a little bit more inclusive. Speaking of AI chips, you also have the MI 450 coming next year within RAC systems and then AMD's next iteration, the MI500. So just just know that these are AI chips expected to launch in 2027. Lastly, the CEO highlighted the company's recent acquisition saying AMD has built quote, an M&A machine to acquire startups focused on AI software, a critical area where

NVIDIA has dominated and AMD pretty much teased more M&A activity to come, Scott. All right. Thanks for all you did today. Pristina Parts of Nevelos. Ohsung, it's good to have you here. Thanks for your name. You're calling for an everything rally in the year end. Tell me more. Yeah, so we're targeting 7100 by year end this year. Yeah, I think everything's going to rally. The market is starting to broaden now. And we see about five reasons why we think

everything's going to rally. Number one, seasonality, especially for the laggers, November, December, and January, the most positive months for the laggers. Number two, the Aipa Terrace refund, potential refund. We saw the hearing last week. We expect the rulings sometime in December or January. I think there's going to be a reflation trade into that event. Number three, the tax return. The tax return is going to be bigger this year because of one big beautiful bill. We're talking about $800 per person on average versus last year. So that's going to be another

reflation event into next year. Earnings were positive and potential government reopen. Sometimes this vehicle thing. What do you think? I mean, I think all that stuff is in place. The question I would have is to what degree we're kind of already getting positioned for some of that because the market, I think, has done an interesting job of looking through the here and now signs of softness. I don't know how we treat the ADP number today, which showed, you know, net negative job growth in the last few weeks. Consumer cyclicals have been kind of wait and see. So I wonder whether that tax refund bump is something that we still have to look forward to and is not yet in the price.

Yeah, I don't think it's in the price yet. I mean, obviously, consumer stocks have gotten, you know, pretty, they got hammered over the past two weeks or so. Our sentiment indicator actually triggered a buy signal. It's a contrarian signal. So sentiment actually has gotten really negative as of last Friday. So historically, when our sentiment bias signals triggered, we saw the S&B 500 rallying about 7.5% over the next three months being positive 90% of the time. So this is a very strong signal

that we got. How reliant do you feel like we need to be on the whole AI trade? I mean, it sounds like, yes, we're obviously going to have to rely on it to some respects. The stocks are the biggest ones in the market, but you started out by talking about a bigger broadening trade. Yeah, I mean, I'm still bullish on AI as well. I think this AI CAPEX cycle is still in the early innings. We called it the fourth inning of the AI CAPX cycle. One area of AI, that we're getting a little concerned about is hyperscalers. Because I think this cap-back cycle is almost like mandatory cap-backs for hyper-scalers that they have to spend to stay competitive.

And if that's the case... That's why they call it an arms race. Exactly. And if you look at their free cash flow margin, it's going to an all-time low. If you look at their free cash flow as percentage of earnings, it's going down to 50%. It used to be 100%.

So those are some of the concerns that we are seeing, but that's actually great news for AI semis, hardware, and power companies. And I think those are the areas. that are going to carry the market. What about the point about the hyperscalers? There was a whole chunk of this year, when I would say I was surprised that the market

was rewarding the spenders and the vendors equally, right? And now it's, you know, Meta's getting punished for whatever it's going to do. If you look at Alphabet, which has been a great stock and everyone thinks they kind of have, you know, a pretty good exposure and strategy when it comes to AI.

Next year, they're going to turn 13 plus percent revenue growth into like 5 percent earnings growth. And the market seems okay with that right now, but it's not clear to me that that's going to be the rule for every company where if they've perceived to be on a treadmill of spend after spend after spend and it's not like you get to a certain point where you can reap the benefits of scale, then I think some, you know, some stocks are going to come in for the meta treatment most likely. And I think that's also where this Michael Burry debate is. It's not so much, oh, it's not accounting shenanigans. It's how much persistent value are you getting from what you're investing in right now in these GPUs and how much do you have to replace them perpetually over time. You like the power play side of this, which is a well-known story.

What leads you to believe there's a lot more room to go? And whatever optimism is out there is already in the price. It's getting louder. I mean, I think that was the clearest message from this earning season, is the lack of power. and the need for more power. We tracked the number of power deals related to data centers that's been happening, and we have seen a huge surge in power deals, and I think that's likely to continue.

What's the risk in any of your outlook? What's the one thing you would say, well, this could upset my, what sounds like a pretty bullish story, obviously. I think it's really the economy. I mean, as long as the AI CapEx cycle continues, I think the market's going to do well. I think what potentially kills the AI CapEx cycle is the economy. Because right now, the market continues to reward

companies for their growth outlook. But if the economy turns, the market's going to start focusing more on profitability than growth. And if that's the case, I think that's what could potentially kill the capital. And that would be one thing that would, you know, obviously that would have a ripple effect on a number of different things, but people are still bullish. Yeah, and the counter to that is that it's hard for the economy to get a ton of trouble for the 6% fiscal deficit and corporate profits growing the way they are. There seems to be buffers out there. But what happens you have to say. on this veterans day and it's going to be green and big time for the Dow certainly up better than

550 points s and p is going to end green as well nasdaq on that give back in part by invidion some of the others we'll finish in the red i'll send it into overtime of morgan and johns