Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Can Stocks Make New Highs? 12/9/25

Episode Date: December 9, 2025

Trivariate’s Adam Parker, Aureus Asset Management’s Kari Firestone and JP Morgan’s Stephanie Aliaga tell us where they think stocks will go from here. Plus, Ashley MacNeill tells us how she is playing the software space in the new year. And, we break down the big move in Boeing’s stock today – following some critical data.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, guys, thanks so much. Welcome to Closing Bell. Scott Wobner live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with the quest for new highs, which would be the 37 for the S&P 500 this year. We're about 1% away. We'll track it, of course, right until the end. Let's show you the scorecard here with 60 to go in regulation.

The Russell, that's the standout today, hitting a new record high of its own. Small caps continuing their run. The markets did take a bit of a dip midday, as J.P. Morgan and some of the other banks weekend. We'll tell you exactly why coming up. Of course, the Fed meeting now underway. Steve Leesman joining us in just a moment with the surprising results of his most recent Fed survey. You don't want to miss that. Home Depot shares, they are lower today as the company's revenue growth guidance falls short of expectations.

Takes us to our talk to the tape. Weather stocks, in fact, can make new highs once again. Let's ask our panel. Trivariates Adam Parker, R.S. Asset Management's Kerry Firestone and J.P. Morgan, and Stephanie Aliaga. Both Adam and Kerry, of course, are CNBC contributors. Welcome, everybody. Adam Parker, to you first. I mean, the market feels like, what, it's waiting for the Fed. It needs to hear from Jay Powell to see whether this is a so-called hawkish cut, a dovish cut.

Is that what's going on? I feel like it's hard to be as excited about the Fed right now. You know, I think a year ago was pretty clear. The bulk case pillars were Fed's going to be doveish. AI is going to drive earnings. I feel like the Fed part's less interesting to me right now because whether they do two more cuts or three or one, at the end of the end of the cutting cycle than the beginning.

And so I think for the market to rip higher into 26, you've got to believe the earnings growth is going to be there, less the multiple expansion from the Fed. Closer to the end of the cutting cycle. They only cut like twice. I mean, they're going to maybe do two more, you know, and then we're done? Is that what they're saying?

What's a hawkish cut? They do one, then tell you they're not going to do it for a while. So you may want to fight the Fed? Is that what you're telling me? I just don't think the multiple is going to expand very much anymore. I think it's going to be more. I need to see the growth part of the equation. I think that pillar is still pretty solid unless they do stuff with the balance sheet,

and that's a different story. If they start, you know, expanding the balance sheet, then you've got to be very bullish again. But it doesn't seem like that's an imminent, you know, idea. Carrie, how do you feel about it? I think the market accepts the fact that we're going to have a cut, right? That's done. What we care about now is, are consumers spending money?

They haven't stopped spending money. Are they going to continue? Are we going to see that in the holiday numbers? Because we have a consumer economy. We need that to continue. And then we don't really have much information until we hear from the tech companies. The giants start reporting in January, the third week, and we do care a lot about what they have to say.

Just follow on Adam's point. If you look at the move index, which tracks the volatility around treasury yields, say bond investors agree that there's just not a lot of uncertainty there when it comes to the magnitude of additional Fed easing that we're expecting. Whether or not they do December, now with the good odds that they do do December, the reality is when you look at the economy and you have this outlook for a bit of an acceleration in the first half of the year, followed by a deceleration in the second half of the year, that is one where it's hard to imagine a really aggressive Fed easing cycle. So in the near term, what markets seem to be much more concerned about are the gyrations in AI leadership. Underneath the hood, you've seen this continued rotation among the AI names that's driving overall volatility. All right. Well, since we are talking about the Fed, let's bring in Steve Leesman, our senior economics correspondent, before he makes his way down to D.C., of course, he'll be in the room where it all happens tomorrow. So your Fed survey suggests, like everybody else, I suppose, that we're going to get a cut. It's whether we should or we shouldn't is maybe more interesting here.

Yeah, that was the surprise to me from this survey, Scott. You know, what's expected here is a hawkish cut. That is a cut followed by a pause. And I'll talk more about the pause at the end here. But it also shows deep divisions over whether the Fed should be cutting at all. And I think that reflects some of the views on the committee itself. Take a look here at the Fed's expectations. 87% think the Fed will cut this week.

But only 45% think the Fed will cut this week. should cut. That's a pretty big gap for this particular group of 38 fund managers, analysts, and economists. Two dissents are expected. And 35 percent, that's the probability of a cut in January in this survey. Scott Wren of Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He writes in, the Fed will cut in December, even though you can make a very rational argument that they should not do anything. Continued high inflation is the number one risk to the economy right now. And that's up from number four in the October survey, the AI bubble bursting. is a new addition to our risks here, along with concerned about Fed independence, the fiscal

deficit, and uncertainty surrounding administration's economic policy. Meanwhile, take a look, though, the growth outlook has really been ticking up running at 2% this year and higher next year, while inflation, that's the problem. Forecast to remain above the 2% target and actually closer to 3. Still several respondents are saying the Fed needs to cut because of either actual or forecast weakness in the job market. Alan Sinai of Decision Economics writes in, Quote, the Federal Reserve is behind the curve again, this time on the widespread weakening of the labor market.

A preemptive 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate is the right thing to do. That's what likely motivates this cut at this meeting, the greater risk that when the data finally come out, it's going to show a weaker labor market rather than the risk that it will show higher inflation. And Scott, I was just doing some math here. I'm pretty sure this is a change, but I do not have a follow-on cut to December priced into the Fed, funds futures market until June now, where it's slightly below 50 for April, but then it goes up to 72% for June. That would make this Powell's last cut tomorrow. You know, many things were surprising to me about your survey. Only 45%, as you said, think that the Fed should. I think even

more surprising, though, is this line. After the December cut, respondents forecast only two more 25 basis point cuts through 2027, through 27, only two more? Yeah, and what's interesting about that, Scott, is this is a bit more hawkish. In other words, this panel or these experts here, a bit more hawkish than the broader market, but not a lot. And I'm just going to make sure that I'm right about this. I'm going to look at this because I watch this every day. When you look at the forward curve of the Fed funds market that comes down to 3%, and there

is a gap there that seems to accompany the new Fed chair will come in, and this new Fed chair will engineer a cut right away. But it flatlines at 3% and beyond. So this group is at 3 and a quarter. The market itself is at 3. So I think the idea is the Fed is forecast now to go to neutral and stay there and not become stimulant. That is the structure of the market. It's also the considered opinion of those who are forecasting. We'll see you tomorrow. Look forward to it. Hear your question.

And, of course, we'll speak on the backside of when the chair's done with his comments. And we'll see outside the room when we're talking with Jeffrey Gunlock, too, Steve Leesman. That's kind of what you're talking about. When you and I were together on election night over there, we talked about the fact that the Pauley Market's always right and surveys aren't right. We had this epiphany of like, I just was checking the Polly Market while Leesman was talking. And it's pretty close to his survey. It's got 70% with no change in January.

If they don't cut tomorrow, the market's going to get killed, okay, because it's got 97% tomorrow. So I think we all agree that's it. That's in the price. It's got 53% for March. So I think the market's more 50-50 by March, but has them not doing anything in January. That's what the Polly Market's saying, and that's been kind of God the last kind of year on what's turned out to be right. Is the boogeyman that's out there, just inflation becoming more of an issue in next year's? stock market than people want to believe today?

We haven't talked about inflation a lot lately because we've been talking about the AI bubble, right? And inflation is still there behind the curtain. So yes, I think that there is a fear, and we're starting to hear this talk about affordability and what does it mean and whether we're doing anything about it. So yes, if we get big inflation numbers at the beginning of the year, I think that would be a real negative market. I'm just thinking, like if it just stays where it is. I mean, we have conditioned ourselves, I think, as an investing class at this point, that 3% is the new 2%. Now, we're fine with it. The market's obviously fine with it because it hasn't really gone anywhere but up. A few fits and starts here

and there. But how much of a wild card do you think that is? I think for the Fed, one of the risks is that the longer that it goes and being okay with inflation above its 2% target, I think investors and the populace begin to question whether that target is actually 2% or not. So that's perhaps the risk on the inflation side. On the labor side, there's a lot of debates out there. It depends on what data you want to look at. I'll say we think that the odds are for more of a stabilization in the labor market next year because corporate America is still doing quite well.

The top risk that companies are citing are around costs and that tariff headwind is beginning to fade ever so slightly and demand, and we see demand improving in the first half of this year. And what I will add is not creating a labor slowdown right now is really AI, despite the narrative AI-related layoffs still account for just less than 5% of all layoffs this year. I mean, when I hear, you know, what Leesman said and his survey results, and then I hear, you know, you guys talk, interest rates going up and staying elevated, I don't necessarily think that's priced into the stock market. Like, if I told you that we could be around four to quarter next year, because the Fed's not as much your friend as we thought, inflation is going

to remain a little more elevated than people want to believe it will. Thus, rates are going to remain elevated. The only thing that's going to bring them down is if you see some sort of weakening in the economy, but that's going to be negative for stocks too. Yeah, I think you need, that's why I think the multiple expansion part is less juicy and it's more going to be the earnings. I think what could bail it all out would be the productivity. We think 5%. We track 26, the SP 500 said they're actually seeing some tangible AI productivity benefits. That number probably goes to 15%. As long as you see some earnings growth and margin expansion from that, you're probably okay. I kind of will take a holistic view on this industry and say, look, we ran below 2% for 10 years

and the Fed convinced you we'll eventually get the two and the market ripped. So we can run above 2% for 10 years as long as you think we'll eventually get the two, it's probably okay. If you think it's out of control and the Bond Vigilanti guys start winning for a couple weeks or whatever. That's going to be bad. But can we grind higher with some margin expanse from AI and with the Fed less, you know, there maybe. And maybe we're up 10 instead of 25, you know, that kind of year. Well, what about the, what about the growthy type stocks if rates are elevated?

Let's just say what has, you know, I don't want to necessarily say carried the market in November. Health care has done really well. Biotech has done incredible, in part because rates had been lower. you don't want that trade to be upset at the same time you're maybe questioning parts of the AI trade, do you? Well, don't you think that the next Fed chair

is not going to raise rates or want those rates to go up for at least a year of his tenure? I think that's a big factor that we really have to consider. Yeah, but that's not until May. Let's not forget. A new Fed chair is not taking the seat when the calendar turns. But Powell isn't going to raise rates as his last act.

Forget about raising rates. So we have steady rates, and then we have the AI, let's call it, dilemma, how much spending, whether they ever figure out, how much is too much spending, that is going to drive a lot of the market over the next year. I don't think it's a dilemma in the next six months, though. No, not in the next six months. I think the stock parts differ than the fundamentals. Like, the AI CAPX is going up.

I mean, we got an AI expert here, you can ask her. But I'm just saying, to me, like, it's a fait of complete that data center capax is going to double in the next 1824 months. What isn't a fait of complete is will you see continued multiple consequences? contraction to offset that. That's, I think, more the debate about what's in the price, but it's a certainty the spending is going to be there. So I don't think there's an AI, you know, bubble in terms of the fundamentals for a while. No, but if, if, you know, we're not so sure about the Fed, we're not so sure about rates, thus maybe we're not so sure about the big

broadening trade, then maybe we're more reliant on AI-related stocks into 26 than we would otherwise like to be. We'd love an environment where you could take a little bit, your foot off the gas, and then all these other parts of the market just carry the weight for a little while. Do you still like that trade? I think the good news is that the AI story is no longer just tech, and you've seen that even this year, where the MAG7 are no longer kind of really stand together as a cohort anymore. And this AI KAPX boom, which continues to grow in the estimates of how much is going to be spent, is also benefiting a much broader set of sectors and companies in the market.

So utilities, industrials, some of these companies that are really at the forefront of the AI infrastructure wave, and then also as a. AI adoption continues to accelerate and deepen, we think that that's going to begin to participate a bit more. So software is still mostly lagged. Even within hardware, you've seen greater participation there. So these are areas where we think greater dispersion and participation can help carry the market next year. You do have a pretty critical week for the AI trade. If you look at Broadcom and then certainly with Oracle, which reports in the next couple of days as well,

Sima Modi joins us now. She's been following this story really closely, not just what's happening with the stock, but what's happening with the credit default swaps, just really how the whole market is thinking about what this company is doing and where it's going. Yeah, it's not just equity investors, but bond investors, Scott, really focused on this report. Bank of America's trading desk writing this morning that Oracle's earnings is probably the most systematically important print for the AI trade this week, adding that this is an opportunity for management to discuss its infrastructure buildout, CAPEX plans, and address the key question, Scott, which is. how does Oracle plan to finance its ambitious data center expansion, its debt load already exceeding $100 billion. Analysts have been speculating in recent days whether vendor financing and equity sale could potentially be in the mix.

Oppenheimer's desk writing that Oracle results are not just critical for understanding the company's pathway, but also validating external AI demand. Following those rumors of Code Red at OpenAI, the market does want reassurances of that five-year deal. open AI. So expect that to be a topic of conversation with the two new CEOs of the company. And they also will likely try to build this narrative, Scott, that they're not just dependent on open AI. They've all got other customers in the pipeline like Meta. Yeah, Seema, thank you. Sima Modi. We need this week to go well, right? Broadcom has to... I think Broadcom is more important

than Oracle, personally. You know, not only because it's five times bigger, but just because you've got to believe that the, you know, market share combo with Nvidia and the compute path is still pretty good. I expect it'll be good. I guess the bar is a lot lower for Oracle. This just feels to me like this particular stock more than many others has become a referendum on the trade, on the debt load. Look, if you're a pod guy with 20 longs, 20 shorts in the AI space, it's just easy to short Oracle. They got a ton of debt and they got some issues. So it's a large cap liquid short and you've got to be neutral the space. You think it's like you're painting what is more of an idiosyncratic issue than anything that has broader implications?

I know 50 guys who short of this thing, not because they care about it in the three-month view. They just need some shorts against the broadcom and video logs and other stuff in the space. So, you know, they got a ton of debt and they got to answer some questions, but I don't think it's a referendum on the AI. We need Goldilocks on hyperscale or cap-backs for the next six, nine months. What does that mean? It needs to come up a little bit.

The companies are saying we're still short compute. We need more spending. But it can't go up by so much that people freak out. and you know, Microsoft has negative free cash flow or something like that. So they're going to have to raise it in an orderly fashion. I don't really think Oracle is the, you know, answer to that. I think Broadcom's got more to say. You own the stock.

A lot, and it's at an all-time high. So the market does care about Broadcom, but it's going to be a good number. No, no, no, Oracle. Oh, Jesus. Yes, we have Oracle, and we have to hear some good news from Oracle, how they're managing financially. Yeah, I know that. I mean, are you concerned about it going in?

No, not at this price. I mean, it's taking a big hit. It's taken a very big head. It's hard to know. I'm a bit more, as you know, like North Star semis over software, and, you know, and I think the challenge is, like, do people care about valuation? We did a note last week saying on AI stocks, they don't. Like, stuff with no free cash flow has done better than stuff with free cash flow.

You know, revenue growth hasn't mattered. So I kind of don't know on Oracle. I'm more, like, confused because it's not cheap at 27 times 2027 earnings, and it's got a lot of debt. So they have to answer the question, I think, and get people more confident. It could happen. Think about where we were nine months ago. Nine months ago, it's like Google's CapEx sucks and Met is awesome. And now it's like, you know, Google's CapEx is awesome. So the sentiment can change. But I just have to get the right words out when they print, you know? And zooming out, I also think it's really important to acknowledge that overall leverage amongst

the hypers is still very low. Their net debt to EBITDA is at 0.8 times for the average ID issuer, IG issuer, that's 2.6 times. So we're, we're. starting to tap debt markets, but these are still some of the most profitable cash-generative businesses, the hyper-scalers as a cohort. And it's really just companies looking to diversify their capital structure and maybe match the life of these long-lived data centers with their funding sources. All right, we'll leave it there. Everybody, thank you. It's good to have everybody. It's good to have everybody here at Post 9, too. Let's take a look at shares of J.P. Morgan. They're falling this afternoon. Started really midday. You can see off that cliff. It certainly

looks like halfway through noon or so. Some comments made by the company's CFO at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference. Our own Leslie Picker is there and joins us now. Les, what can you tell us? Hey, Scott, yeah, J.P. Morgan, CEO of Consumer and Community Banking, Marianne Lake, providing guidance on expenses that was a bit of a negative surprise to the market, above expectations. Lake presented right here at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference in New York City, where she said she expects 2026 expenses for the overall company to be 105,

billion dollars. That's more than $4 billion higher than consensus and about 10% higher than what JP Morgan has guided for for 2025. Lake said the biggest bucket of growth in the expenses is, quote, volume and growth related expenses. These are things like incentive compensation for advisors or product marketing expense. She also said the firm's card refresh has created an uptick. The second biggest driver will be from strategic investments, the firm building out branches, adding bankers, adding advisors, investing in marketing and AI. And lastly, the smallest bucket driving the uptick in expenses, according to Lake, will stem from the structural consequences of inflation.

Those are her words, including real estate costs. Now, these seem somewhat idiosyncratic, but shares of B of BFA, Wells, Fargo, and City did fall in sympathy today with those comments, Scott. Yeah, and I'm looking at the group, which is, you know, Mostly mixed. Obviously, most of the conversation is around J.P. Morgan. Leslie, thank you. Glad to have you there and bring this to us. That's Leslie Picker. We're just getting started. Up next, Vista Equity Partners, Ashley McNeil's back. We'll find out how she's playing the software space, which has been a big underperformer in 2025. That's next. Welcome back.

Software stocks have lagged the market this year with the IGV, up only 10% versus the S&P 500. more than 16% gain. So will 2026 bring better returns? Let's ask Ashley McNeil. Vista Equity Partners head of equity capital markets. Back with me at post-9. It's been a minute. It's nice to see you again.

Yeah, great to see you too. So if software is like everything when it comes to this whole AI story, why the lagging of the market this year? What's going on? Look, I think 2025 was definitely the year of predictable volatility we talked about. And we wanted to see proof points of software

really taking on AI and becoming that AI adopter that we've talked about. And the reality is we're seeing green shoots. We've seen some great software stocks, but it's still early days. So if you think about the AI adoption cycle that we've talked about, it's going to happen in waves. And we've seen the economic rent attribute to a handful of stocks for most of 2025 that is like the hardware and semi-space as well as the hyperscalers. It's now setting up for wave three, which is the application layer.

the software layer. And that's where I think you'll start seeing valuations slowly start to attribute as proof points come out. Do you think the jury is still out or the market is still trying to assess what the impact of AI is going to be on SaaS? I think that people are trying to understand how SaaS model pivots to an agentic AI model and who is going to be the early adopters of that and what proof points we need to see. I think that 2026 is going to bring about some like KPI's and some real metrics for people to establish the AI adoption layer you're seeing. I mean, corporate America is looking for an embedded established software player to adopt AI and make real efficiency changes within their organization. And that is going to start

happening. You're seeing that happen with some software companies. It feels like it's really bifurcated, right? You have some software stocks, as you said, have done really incredibly well. The 10% gain, for the group itself doesn't necessarily represent some of the big names within that space that have done terribly. You're right. I think that software is going to continue sort of going along a path where it's going to get bifurcated into either.

The software solution that the software company is providing to its customers becomes agentified. So that's something like you see Salesforce wanting to change its name to agent force. And then you're going to see software companies that the corporate, proposition they offer to their customers doesn't need to be agentified, but they use AI or agents to gentify how they deliver that value proposition. And you're going to see that bifurcation, and that, I think, is where you're seeing the value dispersion. How does the AI trade in general look to you today, heading into this new year? I think it's a really exciting time. I think

2026 is setting up for a great market for deal-making activity and for funding all of these sort of AI adoptions that we are all kind of knowing are going to come but haven't yet materialized. Rate cuts plays into that story. Is that what you're thinking? I mean, a rate cut, a Fed-easing environment definitely helps propel a lot of the valuation methodologies that we're looking at these AI companies for, but also lowers the cost of capital. And it facilitates companies to really take on this innovation, this technology, and to bring it to its customers. You don't have any doubts about what the path ahead for the Fed is and how that impacts your outlook. I mean, the conversation I had with the group that was

up here before you came up, it's like, well, and even with Steve Leesman's Fed survey, it's like, okay, maybe the Fed's not going to be as friendly as we once expected it to be. I think that any indication of Fed easing. So if tomorrow they do cut rates, I think anything goes a very long way as it pertains to the AI trade and the ability for software companies to become AI adopters. Software will ultimately be the beneficiary of AI, and it's really a time function of how much does it cost to implement that, and the lower the cost of capital, the better. So any wiggle room, I think, is positive for software. AI IPOs in 2026, what's it going to look like?

I think it's 2026 is setting up to be a really robust market for IPOs. and for IPO related to AI specifically. If you think about what you need for a good IPO market, first and foremost, you need investors willing to deploy capital, which we've seen. You need corporations willing to go public. And I mean, you tell me. Okay, well, that's kind of the wild card, right?

You have more companies staying private for longer than they really ever have. This is true. But then you also, most recently, have a lot of rumors. I mean, I feel like every week I wake up to a new rumor mill, rumor mill about a company planning to go public. If you look at filings with the SEC, they're up 50% year every year. You go talk to the broader corporations, and they are looking for sources of capital. And the public markets, given the ability for some stability in the market that

we've seen in the back half of this year, I think really bodes well for IPOs. You know, the Anthropics, the Open AIs, do you expect that we'll get one of those to come public sometime soon? Well, I look at something like an Open AI, and I know they've been very public about not going IPOing soon, but they've made $1.4 trillion of commits of cloud computing, and their revenue is, what, $20 billion or so plus or minus run rate? I mean, at some point, they need to tap all available pools of capital, and the public equity market is a pool of capital. So do I think it's super near term, like next six months? No, but do I think it's on the come? Yes. To those who say the real AI bubble is not in the public market, it's in the private market.

How would you respond to that? I mean, again, this goes back to where you believe we are in the wave and the economic rent being attributed to certain companies within those waves and the deployment. Are there valuations that from all intense purposes seem stretched? Sure, but then you compare that to the growth rate. And right now, growth rates are being used as a proxy for AI adoption and innovation. And so that is propelling some of these valuations, these pull forward evaluations. All right. You'll come back in early 26. We'll see how things start to get when it's the calendar turns.

Ashley, thank you. Thank you. All right. Ashley McNeil, best equity partners right here post-9. Still ahead. We'll tell you what's weighing on Boeing stock today. The bell is right back. Thank you. All right, welcome back. Walmart, making some big changes today.

Moving its listing from, to the NASDAQ, excuse me, from the New York Stock Exchange. Courtney Reagan here with more on that big move. Hey, Cort. Hi, Scott. So Jeffrey's Corey Tarlow calls today's listing move from the NYSC to the NASDAQ, pivotal and more than symbolic, as it, quote, positions Walmart for NASDAQ 100 inclusion, which could drive incremental passive inflows from index tracking funds and reinforce its narrative as a tech-powered omni-channel retailer. Outgoing CEO Doug McMillan agrees.

In this particular instance, the ability to participate in the NASDAQ 100 and to be associated with the brand of NASDAQ, given the progress the company's made as it relates to technology, is kind of what rose to the top. Walmart's changed a lot. And, And we're trying to make sure everybody knows it. Today, TD Cowan's Oliver Chen also named Walmart to his best ideas for 2026, summarizing his thesis by saying value meets technology and prescriptive leaps over predictive retail as it pertains to Walmart's AI usage. There's also been discussion, Scott, today about Walmart's forward PE ratio,

relatively high for retail at around 40 times forward earnings. TGX is about $31.1 general 18, target and gap, both around 12. Scott? You know, Cord, as you talk about this, and we hear Doug McMillan and he talks about the NASDAQ 100, I've said in the last week or so when we were talking about Walmart that I feel like this company, this retailer, and you know better than anybody, has leaned into the AI story more than anybody else in that universe for a variety of different, whether it's different reasons or different metrics or different fundamental aspects of trying to improve their their story. They really have. I mean, and I would almost broaden that out to technology, which maybe isn't as exciting. But if you remember when Walmart spent, what, $3.3 billion to buy Jet.com and they brought in Mark Lurie, I really think he helped Walmart fundamentally change the way they think, the way they operate in infusing technology and sort of the way that digital can propel the business forward into almost every decision they make, whether it's

on the back end for the operations or ultimately serving the consumer. And so Walmart does a lot of things under the surface that we don't talk about that much or maybe we're not as aware of as some of these other companies, but they are really forward thinking when it comes to technology these days. And by the way, they still sort of serve all the fundamental purposes of a retailer for when you need those grocery fill-in trips, which again drives customers back to the stores. All right, court. Thank you. That's Courtney Reagan. Boeing shares are slipping today. The company announcing new delivery numbers. Phil LeBoe joins us now with more. Phil. And Scott, the stock is falling, even though the number is from Boeing.

They came in as expected. It was not a bad month. It wasn't a huge month. It was solid. And that would be the description of it if you talk with analysts. Number of deliveries, 44. Again, as expected. The 32 max deliveries may have been a little fewer than some people expected, but you're

not going to see them always up close to 40 per month, despite the fact that production has increased. Year-to-date deliveries, 537. Why is that important? because through November, year-to-date deliveries for Boeing, it's the best year since 2018, eclipsing where they were in 2023. As I mentioned, 737 max production is 42 per month. And as you take a look at shares of Boeing, keep in mind that the estimate out on the street

is for 590 planes to be delivered this year, means they need to deliver 53 in the final month of the year. We typically see a bit of a surge in deliveries in December for Boeing, so we'll see if that's case in about a month when we get those numbers. And finally, take a look at Boeing and Airbus. Global orders this year, Scott. I remember at the beginning of the year, people were saying, look at the backlogs for both Boeing and Airbus. They extend out, you know, eight, nine, 10 years. Who's going to be ordering these planes? More than 1,600 have been ordered this year. A decent year in terms of orders. Scott, back to you. All right, Phil. Thank you for that. That's Phil Lebo. Coming up next, we track the biggest

movers into the close today. Christina Parts of Nevilleau's standing. As always with that, what do you see? A home improvement retailer signaling no housing rebound. Big oil raising its earning target through 2020, oh, 2030, and, of course, an IRA company that is teaming up with the tech giants on AI-powered smart glasses. We'll have those stock movers next. All right, welcome back. We're getting some breaking news on SpaceX.

Kovac has that for us, Steve. Hey there, Scott. A little more detail coming out of Bloomberg just now on SpaceX's IPO plans. This report says they're looking for a $1.5 trillion valuation and seeks to raise more than $30 billion in its IPO. As far as timing, that's between mid to late next year. They're targeting, at least according to this report, that piles on, Scott. The reports that we heard in the journal and the information in recent days that they're doing a tender sale that would be a valuation of about $800 billion. And also, as our Robert Frank has been reporting all throughout today, this is kind of the reason why Tesla did that big pay package for a must, the idea that more of his wealth and perhaps attention could be tied up in his other ventures besides Tesla.

So that's why he got that big pay package as well. So we'll see how that turns out. I know our David Faber's chasing this one down as well, Scott. All right, good stuff. Yep. Steve, thank you. Steve, go back. Got less than 15 before the bell.

Christina is standing by with the stock she's watching. Yes, you still have room for me. Home Depot shares lower after the company gave cautious guidance for next year expecting comparable sales growth of flat to up to 2%, which was below analyst estimates. It's really a sign that home improvement retailer doesn't actually expect the housing market to rebound anytime soon, shares down 1%. Exxon shares are up 2% after the company said it's targeting $25 billion in earnings growth by 2030. The reason that's important is because it's a $5 billion increase from its previous plan as it really ramps up oil and gas production from profitable assets and Guyana and the Permian Basin. Shares of Warby Parker continuing yesterday's climb.

They're up about 10% right now after announcing a partnership with Google to launch AI-powered smart glasses in 2026. Warby Parker up over 22% just over the past two days. And last but not least, AutoZone shares dropping right now, 7% after the auto parts retailer misdurnings estimate for this sixth straight quarter. The company was hit by higher cost tariffs. while international growth slowed as well due to softer economic conditions, particularly in Mexico, Scott. Okay. Christina, thank you. Christina Portsnevillus. Coming up next with Jill down on the action in the private equity names, they are moving.

And Truist Keith Lerner standing by to break down the final moments of this trading session. The market zone is coming up next. Market's commentator, Mike Santoli, and Truist Keith Lerner are here to break down these crucial moments of the Trading Day plus Leslie Pickers tracking some big moves today in private equity and Simomodi on what to expect from GE Renova's Investor Day. That's coming up in just a bit, too. These comments today from J.P. Morgan at this conference upset the market a little bit. It's not a huge deal, but it derailed what was a pretty decent day. And it also caught the market a bit off balance because for weeks, what it's been trying to to do is to really play the cyclical upturn playbook. So if you look at the action today,

of course, J.P. Morgan itself down four and a half percent when the CFO says consumer feels a little bit fragile. You also have transports down a half a percent. You have consumer cyclicals down almost one percent. But that's because they had such a huge run. And I think people were not really primed to have to think this way as we idle and neutral ahead of the Fed. I mean, I think all those things together tell you why we're flat on the day. We're within 1% of the all-time highs. Obviously, we're going to need to digest the combination of the rate cut, the message, and the dot plot, and all that implies about tolerance for economic weakness into next year. How much Fed risks do you think exist tomorrow? I don't think there should

be very much, but I could see a scenario where the dot plot says, oh, we only see one rate cut in 26, but we all project the unemployment rate is going to go above four and a half. You know, and that all of a sudden is going to have people say, oh, no, they're not our friend right now because they're willing to let the economy gain some more slack. I don't think that's necessarily the scenario to bet on. But I don't think there's a ton of risk, but the market could always seize on an excuse to get itself tested. Gosh, if that's, in fact, what happens, I feel like the market's reaction is, oh man, the Fed's going to make a mistake here. And rates would go down, worried about the economy. And interestingly, everyone looking at the long end

yields going up are trying to argue that maybe that means the market thinks there's a mistake. in the other direction because we're going to cut and inflation is going to stay elevated. So it almost can't win. I actually think the two-sided argument means we're in an okay spot in general. Yeah. All right. Well, we shall see. I'll come back to you in a little bit.

Mike, thank you. Leslie, tell me more about private equity because they are, these stocks are standouts. Yeah, Scott, really positive commentary about the alternative asset managers here at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference today. executives from KKR, TPG, describing a more conducive backdrop for selling or taking portfolio companies public and fundraising momentum appears to be accelerating as well. Goldman Sachs's CFO, Dennis Coleman, also mentioning that the pipelines for private equity dealmaking are finally becoming more active again. Jeffries is also out with a 2026 outlook note today saying that elevated retail engagement, that's retail investors, lower rates and rising risk appetites. should fuel the space as well. And the cherry on top is ARI's inclusion into the S&P 500.

That stock is soaring about 7.6% right now into the close and will actually be sitting down with CEO Michael Araggetti, along with Blackstone President John Gray and some other guests here at day two of the conference tomorrow. Scott. Oh, wow, that's great. Those are big interviews. Leslie, thank you.

Leslie Picker. Seema, G. Ebernova, right in the heart of that AI trade. It really is. why this read from it the company's investor day will be so critical to understand just the gut check on the AI trade. I spoke to GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazac in late October, who at that time said he had been in active discussions with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on how to solve the power scarcity issue tied to the development of data centers and the power generation

and electrical equipment required. Now, the market is expecting revised financial targets this afternoon from GE Renova, which will confirm whether the demand story remains strong or if the recent rumors around Open AI's growth is starting to trickle through to partners in the energy sector. Now, management's commentary on the order book will be key. Take a look at the stock, Scott. It's held up very well, despite the volatility we've seen in tech, up 90% this year. Yeah, been a big mover. All right, Sima, we'll see what happens at that meeting.

Thanks for the setup there, that's Sima Modi. All right, Keith Lerner, set us up here. We got the Fed decision. We got some key earnings, as we know. How do you think? Yeah, well, I think Mike summed it up well. I want to be overly focused just on tomorrow, even though there could be a knee-direct reaction. The important thing is, historically, when the Fed cuts rates and markets are near all-time highs,

a year later, the market has been up about 93% of the time. Go back to the mid-90s, 97-98, the Fed stayed on hold at $5.50 for over a year. The S&P was up 50%. I think more important will be those earnings, especially when you see Oracle that's been hit quite a bit, a lot of questions around the AI trade. So I do think the earnings on the tech side will be probably as important. as the Fed, or even more important, given the weight in the S&P 500. Hawkish cut tomorrow.

Does that derail hopes of something between now and the end of the year in this equity market? You know, I don't think so. I think this market has been fairly resilient. We're taking a little bit of a, you know, our pause, a little bit of sloppy trading here. But I think ultimately, when we see strong gains heading into the last part of the year, the last few weeks, we should still see some further gains in our view. And I think next year we're still setting up. for us for more upside.

You know, we're going into the fourth year of the bull market. Typically, those are years we see gains. It won't be a straight line. We have midterm elections to worry about as well. But it all comes down to earnings, Scott, and we think the earnings next year will be low double digits, and that should be able to allow us to kind of move forward for this overall market.

Yeah. That's obviously going to be an interesting week with Oracle and Broadcom, the latest test of AI? Oracle, I would say Broadcom and Alphabet are right Now, you know, in the favored spot in the market, Oracle is really crystallizing a lot of the misgivings that investors have about how this boom is being financed and also whether

that particular layer of the AI infrastructure is really going to have, you know, a lot of acclaim on the future profits, such as they are. So it will be fascinating to see what they say about how far they can project ahead to where they're going to be, you know, very confident that they can have tenants for all that they're building right now and also the cost of capital as it goes forward. I think it's fascinating that the overall market has managed to hang in here pretty well when you've seen each of the Mag 7 at some point have a pretty deep retrenchment. So I think that's, you know, sort of a net positive, even if people are a little bit uneasy with just how much market cap is swinging

around on a day-to-day basis. Yeah, we talked the other day about, and you have made the point repeatedly about, you know, repeated V-shaped bounces. You said to me the other day, with this, this one hasn't really completed the V. Not quite. But we're about 1% or so away. We're not that far away from new highs. What do we say at the top of the show? It looks kind of like at this point, like it looks a little bit like the Van Halen V.

You know, you got this little sideways tail off the right of it. We'll get, you know, we'll see if we get there. A lot of times the market just needs the Fed to clear out of the way, and then it sort of figures out what it needs. That we'll see if we can jump. Get it? There you go. Yeah, 1984, whatever you want to talk about. So this completely does fit in with that scenario, although still a little bit to be proved,

especially with the brittleness that we showed today on the cyclical trade, given what J.P. Morgan has to say. All right. Good stuff, Mike. Thanks. Keep Lerner. Thank you. Bell rangers. Of course, we set up big for tomorrow. The Fed decision, the chair, and then Gunlock live with me yet again.