Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Can the Rebound Continue? 3/24/25

Episode Date: March 24, 2025

How much can stocks keep rebounding if daily tariff twists and turns keep coming? We discuss with Solus’ Dan Greenhaus, Stephanie Aliaga of JPMorgan Asset Management and Neuberger Berman’s Shannon Saccocia. Plus, top analyst Mike Mayo is forecasting 20% upside in one bank stock. He tells us which one and why. And, Allianz’ Mohamed El-Erian tells us where he sees stocks headed from here.  

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Scott Wapner live from Post9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This Make or Break Hour begins with stocks bouncing to begin this week. The scorecard looks like this with 60 to go in regulation. It is a strong day for the Nasdaq and the Russell really all the way around. But those are the indices leading the way. Discretionary stocks far outpacing other sectors today. And that is thanks to a sharp jump in shares of Tesla. Tech, one of the better groups overall, in fact,

is Meta, Nvidia, and some of the other chip stocks rise today. We'll have more on that in just a moment. It does take us to our talk of the tape, how much stocks can keep rebounding if those daily tariff twists and turns keep coming. Let's begin with Eamon Javers at the White House with the very latest on that always developing story.

Eamon, what is the latest? Well, Scott, we've got a couple more twists and turns. Just in the past couple of moments, President Trump just hosting an event with some Hyundai executives announcing a major investment in Louisiana, brought some reporters into the room for that event. I had the chance to ask him a couple of questions about these tariffs that he's been talking about today. I asked the president about this idea of tariffs on Venezuelan countries or countries that

do business with Venezuela. He's tweeted earlier today that he wants to put 25 percent tariffs on any country that does business with Venezuela. I asked the president if those 25 percent tariffs are on top of existing tariffs on those countries. He said, yes, they are. I said, does that mean you're contemplating 45 percent tariffs on China next week? He said, yes, those tariffs would be on top for any country that's doing business with Venezuela. As we know, China buys a lot of oil from Venezuela.

So if this goes into effect next week, it could be a significant disruption for people who are importing from China. I also asked the president about this idea of reciprocal tariffs next week on April 2nd and would there also be sectoral tariffs going into place? He said yes there will. There will be automotive tariffs and others coming into place. He didn't specifically say on April 2nd but there will be additional tariffs coming into play as well on the sectors in addition to the reciprocal. So confirming that storyline. And then I asked him about his uh... executive orders against big law firms that he feels have been working too closely with democrats and working

uh... inappropriately in his view i asked the president what his messages to the big corporate clients of those law firms should they get additional uh... should they get other lawyers the president didn't go as far as to say that, but he said these big law firms need to, quote, behave themselves. And one other thing, Scott, from his appearance in the Roosevelt Room just a short time ago, the president did say that he might be flexible in terms of offering breaks to some countries on their tariffs on April 2nd.

So we're going to have to watch for that as well. Back over to you. Yeah. Amen, thanks for that. Appreciate that. That's Eamon Jabbers, North Honor, the White House. Now let's bring in Dan Greenhouse of Solace Alternative Asset Management, Stephanie Aliaga of JP Morgan Asset Management,

and Shannon Sakosha of Neuberger Berman. Shannon's a CNBC contributor. It's great to have everybody with us. Dan, you heard the headlines. Twists and turns don't seem like they're gonna end anytime soon. For now, the market seems poised to keep bouncing. Yeah, I think there's two points to make.

The first of which is nobody really knows what's going to happen and when it's going to happen. And so we look at April 2nd as the target date for when a lot of these tariffs are going to be announced. But the truth is we don't know what tariffs are going to be announced, on which goods are going to be announced, when they're going to be announced. And these are important points that the market's looking for. And the other secondary but tangential point is you look at the response of the market today to the headline that some of these tariffs might be delayed in the Wall Street Journal

this morning and then that he might have carve-outs in the headline this afternoon. The market rallied after both of these headlines and it really drives on the point of how levered the equity market is right now, but risk assets in general to these tariff headlines, both the positive and the negative. Yeah. So what do I do, Stephanie? I mean, you're going to continue to get these headlines. We know that.

We've had a nice bounce off a 10% correction. How do you feel? Yeah. I think we're in this period where markets are still digesting the fact that this tariff overhang isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the three most dangerous words for an economy are wait and see. And so long as uncertainty persists,

there continues to be considerable downside risks to markets and earnings expectations. So I think for investors, it's a really important time to just make sure your portfolio is set up for a wider distribution of outcomes. Recession is not the base case, but the probability of one has increased. Okay, Shan, so on that note, I mean, are we essentially in a binary market, if you believe

that you're going to have a recession, then stocks are too expensive, even with the correction that we've had, if you think it's just a growth scare, then you think the bounce just continues? How do you see it in terms of that equation? Well, it depends on what you mean by a growth scare and how long that lasts for, Scott. So we already know that the first quarter for GDP for the US is going to be pretty challenging.

We know that because of inventory builds and weather and dampened consumer spending. But if you look at in the second half of the year, it's really what you think that wider range of outcomes is. And so if you're looking at 1.77 or 1.8 percent GDP for this year, that probably still supports some of this cyclical rebound. We've had a re-rating in the tech stocks and obviously we've seen that unwind in momentum. We're seeing some signs of life over the past couple of days. I think what investors

are struggling with is that there's gonna be a period of time over the past couple of days. I think what investors are struggling with is that there's gonna be a period of time over the next couple of months where you're waiting for some of that pro-business sentiment, that deregulatory impulse, and frankly, for the direction of the attention of the White House to shift to Congress and taxes, you're waiting for that to happen so that businesses can become more confident

and start to really commit themselves to the capex and the hiring that was really earmarked for the second half of the year and into 2026. In other words, Dan, can we just get to the good stuff? Sure. I mean, the market came into this year assuming that the good stuff was gonna come hopefully sooner rather than later and then we've been pushed back and then pushed back and pushed back because we have all the tariff stuff going on. Yeah, we made this point repeatedly that in the first Trump administration, the good stuff

came first. The tax cuts were pretty quick and then the tariffs and those issues came a little later. And this time, of course, it's reversed. You're leading off the administration with some of the more difficult policies and the tax cuts or the extension of the tax cuts aren't going to come to later. That said, I also want to make a point and pivot off of what Shannon said about the growth slowdown, if you will.

I don't think this is really a debate at this point. We had a bad retail sales number in January, it came out in the middle of February. You had some bad housing data, like starts and existing home sales. In February, all of those data points have reversed and we thought that it might be some weather or some traffic issues. A lot of retailers who reported told us in the colder part of the country, traffic slowed

down, but then as it warmed up towards the end of the quarter, traffic picked back up. I think at this point, the market sold off somewhat on the idea that growth was slowing down. But I think it's pretty clear and demonstrable at this point that what happened was a isolated incident and we're coming out of it and I think the market is entirely justified moving higher, at least on that idea. So you think recession, just take it off the table? I don't think it was ever really on the table, but to the extent that it was on the table, yeah, I don't think that near-term, listen, we just got earnings reports from Academy

Sports, from Williams-Sonoma, from, I'm blanking on some Carnival Cruise, and they all talked about demand right now being pretty good in the consumer. Like, obviously there's worries about geopolitics and tariffs, et cetera. But you cherry picked a couple of reports. I mean, I can give you probably 10 more that talked about worries about the consumer. Most recently FedEx, Nike. Sure. Throw up a chart of FedEx.

Now, you could say Nike's are idiosyncratic. I think both of them are idiosyncratic. Listen, if you throw up a chart of FedEx or Nike over a five-year time frame, that I think answers the question. The issue with the consumer is clearly there's bifurcation. We've known this for two years that the lower-income consumer is struggling a lot more as it relates to the higher-income consumer. But again, you've got these retailers coming out more recently, and Walmart did this as well, saying that sentiment has deteriorated, but actual consumer behavior has not meaningfully

followed suit. And I think that's a really important distinction, again, as the market begins to move higher. So Stephanie, maybe this is why Evercore ISI today comes out and says the bull still lives. Just get through this tariff stuff, and then we will focus on the quote unquote good stuff and the market can maybe hone in a little bit more on that it's just being whipsawed everywhere right now. Yeah the question is when the good stuff comes is it too little too late? I think right now you want to focus very squarely on how businesses are reacting to the overhang around tariffs and the potential for higher costs and that is where I think you know when it comes to the overhang around tariffs and the potential for higher costs.

And that is where I think, you know, when it comes to the consumer, the consumer is still fundamentally sound, but it's a bifurcated consumer. You have really good fundamentals with upper-income consumers. The top 10% of earners account for 50% of overall consumer spending. So, you know, we talk about that consumer in aggregate terms, but it's really going to be that top bracket of consumers driving consumer spending. So, you know, we talk about that consumer in aggregate terms, but it's really going to be that top bracket of consumers driving consumer spending. But for businesses, I think what's really important is how they're responding to this new outlook of heightened risks. And if they pull back some of those expectations around CapEx and hiring that

we're expected to drive the economy this year, the economy is still in good shape, but it's lost a lot of the momentum that powered it over the last two years. And a slower moving economy, much like riding a bicycle on the crowded West Side Highway, is a lot more vulnerable to tipping over here. I think that's the risk. Well, because, I'm sorry, to your point, Shan, to Stephanie's point, there are many different outcomes from this point forward, to which Goldman's Tony Pascarello addresses with his note at the end of the week where he says, I'd remain very flexible on where this all from this point forward, to which Goldman's Tony Pascarello addresses with his note at the end of the week where he says, I'd remain very flexible on where this all leads.

The year's not yet 25% complete and the degree of difficulty is very high. So preservation of capital is as important as anything right now. You agree with that? Well, you have to be able to preserve your capital in order to continue to allocate it to some of these areas that are exciting. So Scott, we talked about the consumer. But that points, but hold on, I'm sorry.

But Tony points to what still could be a precarious development. This isn't just, oh yeah, preserve your capital and you can deploy it wherever you wanna deploy it. This is like, okay. So I'll take it. There are a number of different outcomes. We could have a good outcome, we could have a bad outcome. We don't know maybe moment to moment what the outcome is going to be. So preservation of

capital reigns supreme right now. Address that if you could please. Yeah, so I think that we don't know and I think that the risk if you look at every strategist on Wall Street, Scott, the risk of recession has risen over the course of the last six weeks. But frankly, I would disagree with that. I would disagree that there are not opportunities despite this wider range of outcomes. So take the lower range of your outcome in terms of GDP growth, in terms of capex, in terms of hiring. There are still opportunities in the cyclical economy if you believe that there is going

to be this pro-business industrial impulse in the second half of the year. And so I would disagree with that. I think there is an opportunity to put money to work here despite these wider range of outcomes. You just have to make sure that you're paying the right price for the assets that you're buying and you're taking that wider range of outcomes into account. Deputy, what do you think? Cyclicals? Okay. I mean, as long as you have the overhang of the economy questions,

you're going to have maybe two steps forward, one step back, one step back, five steps forward. Who knows? As it relates to cyclicals. You can see small caps, for example, are a perfect representation of that.

Yeah. I think we came out, started this year, and we had an outlook for low to mid double-digit earnings growth. But now it seems increasingly like that's the high watermark, particularly for many of those cyclical sectors. So I think you just want to be more balanced.

And starting this year, many investors had their portfolios completely lopsided in only one direction, really the mega-cap tech companies that had won over the last few years. So this year, I think you want to think more nimbly about diversification, whether that's in bonds, whether that's alternatives and so forth, and just making sure you have that proper balance. All right, speaking of the mega caps, we do have nice bounces for many today. Nvidia included. Christina Partanavoulos is here with more on what is driving this,

presumably some of those tariff headlines we had in the paper overnight and the ones we continue to digest today. One hundred percent chips were not included in that, and so there's, I guess, a sigh of relief for the entire sector. AMD actually leading the chip charge today, up about seven percent on the NASDAQ, and that's specifically thanks to Jack Ma's Ant Group revealing they are using AMD chips alongside Chinese-made alternatives for AI model training. Like you mentioned, NVIDIA trading higher,

about 3.5% after you had its GTC conference last week, and of course the lack of tariffs also helping. Switching gears, Raymond James, upgrading leading manufacturers of optical transceivers, which are used for higher speeds in AI systems, so that's why you're seeing the momentum up 9%, coherent, about 12.5. And then switching to semiconductor equipment manufacturers, they're joining the rally to of course, LAM research,

Applied Materials, climbing after a Digi's Times report suggesting SK Hynex is accelerating its production schedule to meet high bandwidth memory demand which could mean more equipment purchases down the line, supporting well for this group. And then lastly, I have to bring up Intel, because it's one of the only ones that is in the red, just barely though. And that's coming after a 22% surge following the announcement of Liputant as their new CEO. We will hear more on March 31st, the company announcing that today.

It's going to be 10's first keynote speech. There could be a catalyst for this name as well, Scott. All right, Christina, thank you very much for that. That is Christina Parts-Nevalos. Well big day for discretionary. Thank you Tesla which is having a very big bounce of its own today. Phil LeBeau. Very big bounce Scott. The best since November 11th. The stock up at one point today more than 10% and it's easy to see when you look at this the last four days it's up 20% got a bit of a pop starting on Friday Thursday into Friday because of Elon Musk's town hall but keep in mind this stock is still down 33% year to date. that this week. The delivery numbers, this is what you have the bears focusing on more than anything else. They sit there and they say, look, the numbers, the estimates for the first quarter are all the

way down to 417,000 and a few analysts are even more bearish than that. We'll get those numbers probably April 2nd, April 3rd, somewhere in there. And one last note, Scott, take a look at shares of BYD versus Tesla over the last three months. No comparison at all. BYD out today saying that its fourth quarter revenue topping $107 billion for a point of reference. I'm sorry, 2024 revenue for a point of reference. Tesla's 2024 revenue was 97.6 billion.

Scott, back to you. All right, all right. Phil, thank you very much for that. That's Phil LeBeau Now let's get to see memo T for a look at the pop today in some of those big momentum names palantir among them and that bounce is quite large as well Yeah, Scott The prospect of softening terraces fueling a number of the high-profile names that have been exhibiting wild moves in recent weeks the ETF that

Tracks the momentum names bouncing back in the last month after a down start to the year. Palantir is higher and now on track for its first back to back 4% or more gains since early November. Then there's AppLovin up about 7%. Robinhood is rebounding as well. Carvana also sharply higher on the best performing names in that momentum ETF.

Confidence in tech has been tested in recent days around these trade headlines, Havana also sharply higher, one of the best performing names in that momentum ETF. Confidence in tech has been tested in recent days around these trade headlines, raising questions around the broader impact on IT budgets. We did hear from ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott hinting at a slowdown at the Morgan Stanley TMT conference last week, but said that it was due to an administrative handoff versus tariffs and the doge cuts. But that's commentary, of course, key here as we try to understand the broader impact

on this sector, Scott. All right, Seema, thank you very much for that. That is Seema Modi, and we go back to our panel. All right, Dan, all mega caps, other than Meta, are negative year to date. Have we seen the worst of that trade? I think for now, I mean, again, a lot of what affected the market was the assumption that

some of the worst case outcomes of tariffs would become the baseline rather than the worst case scenario. And I think increasingly it's clear when you listen to Scott Besson talk, when you listen to Howard Lutnick talk, that that's not the case, that's not the attempt. Obviously, there have been several headlines from President Trump where he has not walked back per se, but suggested there would be a delay or some carve-outs on the tariff. So I think at this moment, given the sell-off

where the broader market has come down two turns, one and a half turns with the bounce, then you can start to say, okay, well, some of these things are not going to happen, at least as quickly as I thought. The economy is not turning down as quickly as I thought. Yes, consumer sentiment is down, but consumer behavior appears to be holding up fine. So the broader market's okay. And if that's the

sense and I come back into the market, I think if you're the average investor that was in Google, Meta, Amazon, et cetera, I don't think anything's happened on that front to dissuade you from that trade. And I'll just get back. Bryn mentioned, and I totally agree on the halftime show, there hasn't been a single company anywhere that has suggested that CapEx spend would be lower or impaired in any meaningful way. And that's really the underpinning for Nvidia particularly, but the story more generally. And so I think you still probably lean into that trade and that idea. So this has been just a rotation? Does it stop at some point and start to revert back?

I think there's two really stories here, one on the trade front and then the other on AI. And AI, it seems like we're still very early innings of AI adoption and the urgency that companies feel right now to not only invest in AI, but figure out how they are integrating it as AI agents are getting more powerful, as this arms race and this race towards really being

the one to lead the charge on AI continues to go underway. I don't think that's going anywhere. And what gives me some solace in the markets right now is despite the sentiment shift, earnings haven't swung the other way. And the fundamentals for these leading tech companies are still quite solid, but investors will just want to be nimble and you know the amount of passive exposure they have to today's winners on that note Shan Morgan Stanley has a note out today talking about mag seven earnings revisions look to potentially bottom so maybe the worst is now actually behind these stocks from an earnings standpoint a multiple correction

Standpoint and then obviously a stock performance standpoint. I and then obviously a stock performance standpoint. I think the enthusiasm for the Mag-7, Scott, has been rooted in part by their willingness to invest and by the CapEx that they have put forth in order to create a growth trajectory and a growth expectation for the next five years. So I think, you know, perhaps that value of that is not quite as dear in an environment

where you expect CapEx to grow across other industries into this environment. And so, you know, for us, we're still not as optimistic or constructive on these names. We like the technology sector outside of the Mag-7, but for us, we like the increase in CapEx across other industries to create that same sort of growth enthusiasm albeit perhaps not at the same absolute earnings levels what about and lastly to you the momentum correction is that done do you think so is it important that it's done the market was having a really hard time getting anything going as long as those stocks were pulling back as strongly as they were. I think the transition from one regime to the other typically takes a little bit of

time and so if we're going to shy away from some of the momentum names on the smaller end the Robin Hoods, the Carvanas, the Palantir's that we talked about on the larger end the AI semi names. The transition from that to some other theme would presumably take place over certainly several months if not a few quarters. But again, getting back to the point that I just made, and I think Shannon would necessarily argue with, I don't know why, if that was your trade three months ago, six months ago,

it wouldn't be your trade now. They still have superior earnings growth mostly, obviously Apple and one or two. Their multiples arguably got way ahead of where their earnings and earnings growth was. And they've come down considerably. They appear to be bottoming, not everybody, but they appear to be bottoming.

That's the key question. I mean, had the multiples corrected enough to get back in line with their fundamentals? I mean, listen, the market tells you when enough is enough. I think that the charts on a lot of these names tell me that we seem to be, listen, you've got the macro that I talked about earlier we seem to be, listen, you've got the macro that I talked about earlier, you've got the micro, you've got the Morgan Stanley

note, I think you've got a feeling that fundamentally the earnings haven't been impaired at all, which was just mentioned. The market's still looking for roughly the same level of EPS over the next four quarters now than it was at the peak. So I think when you put it all together, and again, it's not what I do, but I think if that was your trade before, I think it's still your trade now. The only thing I would add is like our favorite space, which has been energy for some time now, is leading this year. And a lot of the retail names outside of

Amazon, and I guess Decker's, which is doing terribly, you know there's plenty of consumer-focused names that we talk about and look at that are doing fine. There are other themes there, but again in terms of driving performance, it's hard to argue with the growth rates for a lot of those companies. We will leave it there. Dan, thank you. Stephanie, thanks to you as well. And Shannon, of course, we'll see you soon.

We are just getting started here on The Bell Up. Next, our analyst Mike Mayo is forecasting some serious upside in one big bank. He tells us what it is next. JP Morgan chairs rallying again after posting their best week in some two months. Our next guest calling for more than 20% upside from here. He raised his estimates just today. Let's bring in top banking analyst, Mike Mayo

of Wells Fargo Securities. He's here at Post 9. It's good to see you. Nice seeing you. So last week you called JP Morgan the Nvidia of banking and today you followed through by increasing your estimates and reiterated it as your signature pick. Why?

Why all this love for JPM? Well I had a conference last week, Wells Fargo's research group. We had all sorts of big tech firms there. We had Amazon, Microsoft, Metta, Nvidia. And you know what was interesting about that conference? Was the praise JP Morgan got from Big Tech. So JP Morgan is the NVIDIA of banking, and you're seeing growth in their consumer checking accounts

two to three times faster than the industry. So that's over the next one to five years. But let's talk about the next year. And so we updated our earnings estimates, and JP Morgan reports earnings for the first quarter two weeks from Friday. And I think those earnings will be strong. In addition, we upped our estimates

for the next couple of years because JP Morgan is one of the biggest beneficiaries of deregulation. So you have Goliath is winning when it comes to tech and their share gains. You have trading and strong earnings coming ahead and one of the biggest beneficiaries of deregulation. So people are looking at, you know, little pieces of the market and banks, and they're missing this seismic shift that's taking place at JP Morgan, best-in-class global bank, that's expanding its lead.

Yeah, where's all this deregulation now? Where is it? People tend to overestimate deregulation in the short term and underestimate it in the long term. This is just like what I saw in the mid 1990s. No one cared until they were forced to care. So as you get people, you get policies and as Scott Besson has said, he wants to have more efficient regulation, more effective regulation and empower banks more. So just listen to the Treasury Secretary in Scotland. I know what they're saying, but where is it? And how patient are you going to be

that it actually arrives? I go back to what I said to our other guests at the beginning of the program. This was one of the hallmarks of this administration coming in. Granted, it's only March, okay? But with all the tariff twists and turns, the good stuff, as I phrased it as earlier,

tax cuts, deregulation just keeps getting pushed further and further. So, look, I've been in about 12 countries in the US and Europe the last two months. The biggest pushback was the, quote, chaos. The chaos was so much policy uncertainty at the same time. So the investor sentiment was like we're going to step aside from the chaos until it resolves itself and then we'll step back in. And if we're having this conversation as July 4th Scott then forget the bank thesis, forget the thesis because right now you have a degree of paralysis for

big mergers, for big capex spending, and that propels capital markets and lending fees and lending revenues and things like that. So you think it's still a risk? It's absolutely a risk. This is a critical junction right now, critical juncture. The Washington, D.C. needs to resolve the policies so the participants know the rules of the game. And if you don participants know the rules of the game.

And if you don't know the rules of the game, then people are going to step aside. So I think, you know what my analogy here is Scott, when Jamie Dimon took over as CEO, the first thing he did is he highlighted all the bad things. He brought them out in the ocean, in the open, and he said we're going to deal with that. And there might be some pain, there might be a transition period, but that will create longer, higher higher sustainable returns. So it's kind of like that. Short-term pain for long-term gain. The problem is there's no one Jamie Dimon to execute it, so that's the key risk, execution. But I

think in Scott Besson we trust. The Treasury Secretary has set a tone for financial discipline. In fact, if you want to go way back in time, maybe Scott Besson can become the Albert Gallatin of Treasury Secretaries. He was the Treasury Secretary under Thomas Jefferson. He actually had a surplus. He helped create a surplus. So we're talking about reducing the deficit in half as a percentage of GDP. So lower rates, deregulation, and you're already having inflection of banks in revenues, efficiency, and returns. And EPS was negative the last three years.

We think it's going positive. The deregulation is just icing to a good bank story. In all seriousness, the lack of M&A, lack of capital markets activity, new numbers today, lowest in more than a decade. Deals announced since the start of January. That's according to Deal Logic. I mean And there's not a lot of optimism on that front. There was, but now we're kind of wondering, okay, well maybe we need to rethink it, at least in the near term. It has challenged my conviction, don't get

me wrong, and my earnings estimates are at risk. JPMorgan might be an exception. I think some of the big banks trading is doing well, but my earnings estimates are at risk. It's challenged my conviction. I do think rational minds will prevail over the next couple of months. And if I'm back here July 4th talking to you, Scott, and we're still having the same discussion,

it's a different story. And Citi is still your number one pick. Citi's still. As much as you love, you know, JPM and Jamie and all that, and Nvidia Banking, Citi is still your number one pick. Citi will transition from value destruction to value creation by next year and if they do that and they go from below tangible book value

to above tangible book value we have city doubling over the next two and a half years. All right we'll leave it there. Mike good to see you as always. That's Mike Mayo Wells Fargo securities right here post nine up next. Muhammad Al-Aryan of Allianz will join us. He'll tell us where he sees stocks heading from here and if today's bounce is sustainable, he probably has some opinions on what the Fed's going to do about all this as well. We'll ask him next. All right, we're back as stocks continue to bounce higher today. Our next guest, though, says not all clear just yet.

Mohamed El-Aryan, Alianz's chief economic advisor, joins us now. It's good to see you again. Thanks for having me, Scott. I'd love to get your current view of these markets. So the good news is we got some pretty nasty technicals behind us. The markets came into this year, as you know, betting on two things. One is continued U.S. exceptionalism. And two, the good things, as you put it, would happen at the same time as the less good. And those two bets were undermined and caught quite a few people overexposed to the U.S. markets.

So you've seen quite a deleveraging among fast money, and you've also seen a shift of institutional to Europe. I think most of the deleveraging is behind us. The shift to Europe isn't quite behind us, but the technicals certainly are not as bad as they were a few weeks ago. So, I mean, you think this US exceptionalism theme is still a thing? Because I can't tell you the number of people

who come on the network, certainly my programs, and talk about better value in Europe. You're gonna get way better returns over there. You're probably gonna get a little less risk as well. How do you see that? So I don't quite buy that because people have bought into announcements in Germany. Implementation is a completely different kettle of fish.

So to go from announcement to implementation is quite hard. I also think that the inherent strength of the US economy and the US markets are still there. There's this massive cloud of uncertainty over them right now. But if and when that cloud clears, people will focus back on the inherent strengths. What was your takeaway from the Fed meeting last week? We still have two cuts on the table. You take the growth forecast down, you raise the inflation forecast a bit, and for now it appears that the Fed share is going to look through any inflation caused by tariffs.

They even brought out the transitory word again. They did. So we had two different interpretations. If you focused only on the statement, the forecast, and the interest rate guidance, this is a wait and see Fed that is taking seriously the soft data, and it is the soft data that has been worsen. If you listen to Chet Powell, this is someone who doesn't take the soft data as seriously as the rest of the Fed, and this is someone who's willing to dismiss the tariff effects on inflation as transitory.

You know, it's up to you which one you focus on. I think you should focus on the first one. I think the market still believes that we're gonna get more cuts than we will. I think at best we will get one cut and it wouldn't surprise me if we get no cuts this year, Scott, unless we go into recession. But that's a completely different ball game.

I mean, one versus two, I could see some wiggle room there. In terms of the soft data, I wonder what you do think about that, that a number of the surveys, consumer especially related surveys have been weak, which the Fed share really dismissed. And I think that's what you're alluding to.

It's like, I'm not going to pay so much attention to a survey that says, I feel bad about the economy until I actually see it show up in the hard data where people are in fact spending less. It's not something to clearly worry about. Are they too dismissive of the so-called soft data? They are Scott. When people say, I see it in the soft data

but I don't see it in the hard data, well, there's a lag. There's normally a lag of three to six months? You know, you may be continuing to invest you may be continuing to buy But if you get more and more worried the soft data is going to flash Yellow and the hard data would pick that up in a few months same with the price data So if you look at surveys of inflation, again today we had another one, they are all consistently pointing to inflation going up. So I think the Fed should take it more seriously. The trouble is it puts their

two mandates into competition. Do they fight the fear of high unemployment or do they fight the fear of higher inflation? Yes, but they seem judging the words of late that they might be willing to tolerate continually sticky inflation or at least above target, but they're not going to tolerate any further falling apart of the economy and or the labor market. Is that correct? I think that is correct and I think that's the right thing to do. You know the 2% inflation target is arbitrary and there's no point in pushing this economy into recession for an inflation target that if and they're not gonna they're not gonna do this Scott but if you were to revisit the appropriateness of this target you

wouldn't choose 2% so I think you're absolutely right. They will err towards protecting the employment mandate as opposed to the inflation mandate. Lastly, what do you make of the balance sheet move? I thought that was interesting in the way that Chair Powell mentioned some tightness in money markets. You've seen some spreads widen a little bit, high yield and otherwise. Nothing to start the alarm and the siren spinning, but what is your general thought on how they've made that move, which I think the chair pretty much called a no brainer or something of the like.

Yeah, I think it was a smart precautionary move. Did they have to do it? No, but they did it as a precaution because the last thing they want is for markets not to function well. We used to have three things underpinning the economy, confidence in policy, confidence in exceptionalism, and confidence in the well-functioning of markets. The first two have been shaken, the last thing you need is the third one to be shaken.

He called it common sense. I said the no brainer, but he said common sense, but you know what I mean. Mohammed, I always like speaking with you. Thanks for spending the time with us. We'll see you soon. And for having me, Scott. All right, Mohammed El-Erian.

We do have some breaking news regarding Tesla. We want to get back to Phil LeBeau with the details here. Phil? Scott, take a look at shares of Tesla. The FBI has confirmed that it has launched a task force in conjunction with the ATF that will be looking into the vandalism, the attacks, the criminal activity that has been targeting Tesla over the last couple of weeks. And one of the things they're looking at is whether or not there is some broader coordination.

They have referred to this as domestic terrorism. So again, Scott, you've got the FBI formally launching a task force looking into these attacks. Scott, back to you. All right, Phil. I appreciate the update. We just follow that still obviously continuing and developing story. big jump in in shares today at more than 10% Phil LeBeau up next We track the biggest movers into this close today Christina parts of nevilosa standing by with that. Hi, Christina

Well, we have a tech turned crypto Maverick doubling down on digital gold scooping up over half a billion dollars of Bitcoin this week Meanwhile a shipping giant gets an analyst vote of confidence proving cost cuts can deliver more than just packages. Details next. We've got about 15 to the bell. Back to Christina now for the stock she's watching. Tell us what you see. Well, thanks Scott. I'm seeing shares of Strategy, which is formerly known as MicroStrategy, jumping nine percent as Bitcoin climbs to over $80,000 right now to start the week. The firm also has once again added to its Bitcoin stash according to a new regulatory filing.

As of the week March 17th to the 23rd, the firm purchased over $584 million in Bitcoin, bringing the firm's Bitcoin holdings to over $500,000. Yes, $500,000. And shares of FedEx rising on the back of a Jeffries upgrade, even as the firm cuts its full-year forecast. Analysts upgrading FedEx to buy from hold, confident that current cost-cutting initiatives will position the firm for further profit growth. And that's why you're seeing shares up over 5.5%. Scott?

All right. Christina, thank you very much. Christina Partzanovalos, still ahead. Pinterest popping in today's session. Tell you what's driving that higher. Closing bell is coming right back. We're now in the closing bell market zone. CBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus a bullish call today on Pinterest. Julian Borson will give us

those details. And Pippa Stevens is looking ahead to Oak Low earnings coming out in OT. Michael, I'll turn to you first. The bounce continues. We're basically at the highs of the day and it is nicely broad based today. It is. It's again, it's sort of a credible continuation of what I've been calling a credible bounce off of a good low. Really the message is a 10% three-week decline when most stocks did much worse than that based on growth scare plus max tariffs, plus momentum meltdown was a downside overshoot,

at least in the short term, if we're not gonna have all those things go wrong at the same time. Where does this bring us? Right now, we are at about a two week high. So two weeks ago today, 57.70, you're up almost 5% off the intraday low, so that's a decent move.

We've kind of hurtled the 200 day moving average again. So it all is fitting together with this idea that this process of making some peace with the fundamentals in the form of lower prices and lower expectations. Market was obviously coiled pretty tight at the lows. We've relaxed higher. I think there's still some room,

even without getting too much incremental good news to get a little higher from here, but then it becomes what are earnings gonna look like, let's make sure the hard economic data don't fail us, and all the rest of it. So again, you're still kind of monitoring for how real it is and how much power is behind it. While it's broad sector-wise and stock-wise,

it's not one of those like everything's up a ton today, it still is a little bit selective under the surface. Yeah. Watch in the VIX too. Taking a little relief there. Yeah, there's a definitely relaxation trade going on in there today. All right, Julia, tell us about Pinterest. What's happening here?

Well, PIN's shares are almost 5% higher, bolstered by a Guggenheim note upgrading the stock to buy, raising the price target to $40, saying the recent share price pullback, down almost 9% this month, is an attractive opportunity to invest in the still early-stage global user monetization and profit opportunity, projecting monetization of the user base to grow at above-market rates in the next two years, fueled by volume growth and also AI-enabled ad performance improvements,

saying that in terms of macroeconomic driven ad concerns, Pinterest is better positioned than others because of its focus not on brand advertising, but on direct response advertising. B of A was also out with a bullish note on Pinterest today, citing its healthy recent user data, new AI-based direct response options, easier comps, and a relatively attractive valuation. Back over to you. All right, Julia. Thanks, Julia Borst.

To Pippa Stevens as we wait for Oklo and OT. Hey, Scott. Well, Oklo jumping today ahead of those results after the company said it's working with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as part of a pre-application process for its small modular reactor. The agency will begin the review process later this month and Oklo expects to bring its first reactor online in late 2027.

Now the results we get in a minute are just the third for the company after it went public last year via a SPAC founded by OpenAI Sam Altman. Back in December, Oklo entered a strategic relationship with data center company Switch, but so far it hasn't inked a deal with any of the hyperscalers.

So on the call, investors will be listening for updates around how the demand environment is looking and whether talks are in progress with big tech, as well as the timeline for making its Aurora reactor operational. Now shares have more than tripled in the last six months in what's been a traditionally very volatile name. Scott?

Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens. Mike, I'll turn back to you. I'll tell you what stands out to me, and I'm sure you and many others, is Meta. Yes. It is the only mega cap positive year to date. Yeah.

By a good amount. I mean, it's positive by 6%. Sure. It's up yet again today quite nicely, too. There's been something going on with that one. Well, multiple things, I I think working in its favor, and it did not surrender most of those gains with this hefty pullback.

Part of it is them seeming on the right side of whatever this latest phase of AI is gonna be. Obviously, the Zuckerberg kind of getting close to the administration didn't hurt, but also it's the social media giant that doesn't seem to have much cannibalization risk as Alphabet does. So if you just look at how Alphabet has gotten super cheap, trades at a discount to the overall market as Meta has built its premium,

it's almost like all that value is being transferred in the market's estimation over toward Meta. So that does make sense to me. I think the bigger question is kind of the Mike Wilson call it from Morgan Stanley today, which is that the MAG-7 or NASDAQ 100 type stocks can grab the baton for a little while here because they have had their valuations moderated to some degree. They often act as defensive. Not because it's going to lead us up and away and kind of resume the dominance of the market, but just that the pendulum ought to swing back

in that direction perhaps for a little while. Well, the Apple selling stopping would be a positive, or at least pausing. No, you're right. Because that's been sort of a steady decline as the questions have only gotten greater around that name. Nvidia's coming off of its big event last week,

of course, related to AI gets a 3% move, some tariff relief for the other chip names today too. So all that fits together, I think semis in particular have really had a bit of a cleaning out type of trade to the downside. Should point out, Microsoft's still underperforming. It's up less than half a percent on a day when the S&P is up 1.7.

So diversity within the Mag-7 is fine. Again, I think it's much more about just how overdone do we get on the downside? We got oversold we're working some of that off to get us much higher from here I think it's going to take a little more than just the absence of maximum Bells ringing us out with another big day of almost 600 on the dow. Let's see where we settle off you tomorrow