Closing Bell - Closing Bell: How Far Can the Rally Run? 10/24/25

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

Where can this rally go before the end of the year? We discuss with The Wharton School’s Jeremy Siegel, Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni and NewEdge Wealth’s Cameron Dawson. Plus, Plexo Capital’s Lo Toney tells us what he’s forecasting for tech stocks this earnings season. And, the Dow closed above 47,000 for the first time ever. We discuss that milestone with Neuberger Berman’s Shannon Saccocia and Mike Santoli.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

All right, Contessa, thanks so much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9, right here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with record highs, a chance for history for the Dow. The first ever close above 47,000. Looking pretty good at this moment, 47,300 is where we stand with an hour to go. Take a look at the majors with 60 to go now. In regulation, that cooler than expected CPI spurring stocks right from the outset today.

Yields dropping. That's helping the Russell outperform. It does come as well ahead of next. week's Fed meeting. We'll ask the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timmeros, what it means for Chair Powell and company. Inside the market today, tech and com services are the best sectors ahead of those critical mega-cap earnings next week. Apple is marching towards $4 trillion in market cap, Alphabet's and Outperformer today. And how about AMB? A new high on optimism about its chips and AI. Airlines are up to look at American Airlines today, surging yet again following its earnings

report, and now up 16% or thereabouts this week alone. It does take us to our talk of the tape, higher highs for stocks and where this rally can go before the end of the year. Let's ask our panel today. The Wharton School, Professor of Finance Wisdom Tree Senior Economist, Jeremy Siegel, Yardinney Research founder, Ed Yardinney, New Edge Wealth, CIO, Cameron Dawson, one and all. It is great to have you. The professor, to you first. This is a resilient stock market. What do you make of it? Hey Scott, party on. Listen, what could be better? You mentioned the great CPI that we had. And although we are not getting all the real data, labor data, when we piece what we do have together, the economy is absolutely holding firm. There's no question about that. I mean, jobless claims are right in that sweet spot, 220, not going up. You know, we saw good data on the S&P global indexes today. And, hey, earnings, what could, I mean, the three most important things in inflation, the earnings and the real economy, I am not surprised we are getting all-time highs.

Yeah, I mean, inflation, earnings, economy, you left out Fed rate cuts, of course, but maybe you allude to that in the way you talk about inflation where it is. Yeah. I mean, I mean, it's certainly a slam dump, 25. I actually think we're at, you know, I think it's 90% we're going to get 25 again in December. I think that, you know, basically the Fed is going to get down to the mid-3s by the middle or early of next year, and that's where it should be, in my opinion. You know, I've said that for many, many months now. So, I mean, you know, with the data cooling off, you know, what was really sparked the downturn in the CPI this morning was finally that rental data, the owner-occupied housing, shelter data,

which were so many months, if not years, had been stubbornly high because of the way the government computes it, really, I think, showed the slowest increase in five years. And I think that trend is going to continue for quite some time to come. All right, Cameron, party on. Those are the professor's words, is you right? Well, I think how do you fight an environment where you have a distinct uptrend in the market? You have fiscal stimulus, which really starts to kick in in 2026. You have monetary stimulus that we're starting to get now because of that benign inflation. You have earnings, you have an AI story, which is not just driving a narrative, but is also driving real CAPEX and real growth in the economy.

All extraordinarily bullish things. I think that what we have to keep an eye on and watch is sentiment. Sentiment in certain areas is starting to get a little bit frothy, and that could mean that prices run ahead of themselves. But certainly as long as we continue to see earnings revisions go higher, GDP revisions go higher, an environment that's supportive of risk taking. But of course, being aware that if sentiment gets too extended, it could usher in some volatility. You've talked at times, I mean, you've generally been bullish, but you've also talked at times about the possibility of euphoria.

It's a word you like to use when you think about what could happen if the market just continues to climb. I mean, the professor sounds, like when he views his words like party on, what does that tell you about where we are? I was going to say happy days are here again because I've been talking about the roaring 2020s. Yeah. It certainly feels that way. And I actually agree with just about everything Jeremy said, the professor said, except I don't think the Fed should be lowering rates because I think it's going to be fueling the froth, the froth then becomes big bubbles. That's the problem. But don't you think rates are just simply too high anyway, so why shouldn't they lower that? The economy is living with them just fine, right? I mean, we've lived with four and a half percent bond yields for a while. The housing market's been in a rolling recession. labor market's not all that strong? Well, I don't think that lowering interest rates is going to help the labor market.

I think the problem is there's a bunch of problems in labor markets that can't be solved with lower interest rates. Lower interest rates should, in theory, be stimulating demand. But before the government shut down the data, real GDP was run over 3.5% for two quarters in a row. So we don't have a problem with demand for the labor market. We have a problem with the housing market. Well, we have a problem with the housing market. But then again, last year, they lowered the market. the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points, and the bond yield, the mortgage rates went up by 100

basis points. Well, because inflation was still elevated at that point. And you also have the deficit concerns. But I mean, the housing market can't move at all. I mean, inflation is not at 2%. The inflation rate is at 3%. So everybody's talking about how wonderful the inflation numbers are. But the reality is, you know, I guess unless you believe that 3% is the new 2%, which

is what everybody seems to be talking about here, services and inflation rates excluding rent, they're still on the hot side. And, you know, we still have the tariffs working through the system. So they did not get to 2%. Let's put it that way. If it hadn't been for the tariffs, they might have gotten there. But all in all, I agree with my co-panelists here. Everything's kind of working out perfectly, except that's the problem.

Sometimes when things work out perfectly, you have to watch out what could go wrong. Professor, what was your, what's your reaction to what Ed has to say? Well, every major central bank's policy rate is 50 to 100 basis points or more below their 10-year bond. We're inverted. I mean, right now we got the 10-year, you know, four, and we have 4-10. Now, it'll go down certainly, you know, next week. But we are, the policy rate should be at least 50 to 100 base points below the 10-year. History in the United States, the last 75 years, actually the average has been 110 basis points below.

We have an inverted term structure. I think there's room for it to go down. Whatever little bump we get from inflation and the tariffs is something that the Fed should not react to, should see through. And I see the longer term trends on inflation moving towards that 2% target. Well, speaking of the Fed, stay with me, everybody, because we're getting some news out of the Fed. Leslie Picker has that for us. Hey, Scott, yeah, this involves changes that the Fed has agreed to make to the bank's annual stress tests. Just a short while ago, the Fed did agree to these changes.

They voted on these changes, which largely have to do with additional disclosure to make the models and hypothetical scenarios publicly available and open to feedback. Think of it kind of like the Fed sharing a study guide for a test so that the banks and the public know what's going to be tested. Now, this is important because this is the annual regulatory tool that was established following the financial crisis that essentially helps the banks and helps regulators set these capital requirements for each of the banks, depending on how well they perform on the test. And if you recall, Scott, back in December of 2024, several lobbying firms as well as associations did sue. They initiated some litigation here because they alleged the Fed's stress test was in violation of the administrative procedure. Act, which broadly says, you know, allegations around regulatory overreach is the way that these stress tests were constructed. But, of course, today marks a new change, a new regime as it pertains to the stress test

being much more transparent, establishes a process to solicit feedback from the public and the industry about those scenario designs as well as the scenarios themselves. So some pretty big changes to the way that stress tests are conducted here in the United States. I'll send it back to you. I appreciate that breaking news. Leslie, thank you. That's Leslie Picker. Let's go back to the panel.

I want to get your take, Cameron, because Ed really throws cold water on the notion that you need rate cuts for the market to continue to go up. He's still bullish and says don't cut. I think there's a slight difference there. The market would love rate cuts. Well, of course. But it doesn't need rate cuts,

meaning that the economy right now, it's really hard to argue that the level of rates right now is suppressing activity in a meaningful way, meaning economic conditions or financial conditions remain very loose, very stimulative, which suggests that the equity and credit market in a broad standpoint are looking and saying these rates are not suppressing activity. Now, of course, you can look at housing, but it's good to remember the Fed doesn't control the long end of the yield curve unless they're engaging in very aggressive quantitative easing. So that raises the question, what is the unintended consequence of extra easing if the economy

doesn't need it. And we learn that lesson in 1998. We learned that lesson in 2005. If the Fed is too easy, it starts to blow bubbles, but maybe that bubble is not popping yet. It's just beginning to emerge. There are those who say you're going to get a bubble, but it's going to be a ways off, and you have to participate in this market now. I think we've seen that the economy and the financial markets are actually pretty resilient to bubbles. We've had bubbles that blew up. a few years ago, right after the pandemic, we had the SPACS excitement, the meme excitement. We had excitement about the Kathy Woods ARC funds, and all those bubbles blew up, and yet the overall economy continued to perform very well, and earnings stuck out as being

resilient as well. Let's be honest with ourselves, though. If we're talking about blowing up a bubble in AI, okay? If that breaks, there's going to be a far different story than meme stocks or, possibly? Well, possibly, because I don't think it's 1999-2000 all over again because there isn't as much leverage involved in the circular financing or the seller financing. In this case, there's a lot of cash flow involved. So if it turns out that the hypers decide that they don't need more capacity and they build too much,

they'll just scale back on the amount of spending, and then on their profits, will be better and their cash flow will be better. There's a lot of debt financing right now on data centers. I mean, we're talking about building data centers and this, you know, here, there, and everywhere else. Yeah, it's not clear. I mean, the data is not exactly transparent on how much is debt, but it certainly, in terms of the press releases, it certainly looks as though Nvidia is taking a lot of its cash flow

and either directly or indirectly financing data centers. Amazon is building its own data centers. I mean, the hyperscalers are using cash flow to, to build. data center. So I would say that that's a big difference from the seller financing bubble that we had back in the late 90s. Professor, what about this idea that, you know, if the Fed does what you want the Fed to do and think that it should do, you're only going to help make the situation eventually worse in this market because you are going to initiate a level of potential euphoria in this market that we haven't seen in some time. Yeah, but I think the cuts are already built in.

I mean, why is the 10-year at, you know, $3.95? It is because it is building in those cuts. That's not extra stimulation. Oh, my God, it's surprised the Fed is cutting. The long rate is building in cuts to get to a more normal term structure of interest rates. I mean, only if the Fed cut much more, and they would only do that if the economy really was thinking, would there be any undue stimulus. So to say that, you know, what the bond market expects, if the Fed does that, would be too stimulatory, I think, ignores the factors of the market.

You want to respond to that? Well, I think the proof is in the performance of the economy. It has been remarkably resilient with interest rates where they are. And, you know, the bond deal is kind of trying to figure out whether 4% is going to hold or not. we keep kind of holding onto that level. I'm in the camp to think that the risk here is the Fed will lower interest rates, and it'll be a repeat performance of what we saw last year, where they cut the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points.

At the time, I said I didn't think that was a good idea because the economy is resilient. The Fed was looking at a labor market they thought it was weaker than I thought, and they went ahead and lowered interest rates, and the bond yield went up 100 basis points. I think that could happen again this time around, And, you know, I think the Fed's kind of kidding itself. And it was only, you know, several months ago over the past few years that they were saying we're not going to ease until we get inflation down to 2%. Well, because they're worried about tariff inflation, which to this point hasn't become the issue that maybe they thought it would.

Let me move to another story that was big this week. Big moves in so-called momentum stocks is volatility returned to that group in a big way this week. Christina Parts of Nevel is following that for us. Tell us what you saw. Well, Scott, they're definitely. having a moment this week. That would be momentum traders. The momentum ETF bounced off its 50-day moving average this week, which is really a key technical level for traders to watch and gauge whether a trend is holding or breaking. And this matters because it hasn't closed

below that level since April 24th, which means 127 straight trading days, the longest streak since 2018. The funds matching the S&P returns as well right up now about 6.8% over three months, 24% over six months. And this week's leaders, RTX, 3M, and SoFi, all up about double digits. You can see it on your screen. 3M, for example, up 10%. For the month, it's Rocket Lab, M-Corps, and Twilio, really driving the gains. Traders are also favoring high beta stocks, which are names with bigger swings than the broader market. The SPHB high beta ETF is up about 3.5% this week versus the S&P 500, which is just up 2%. So when investors want risk, this is where they go. And speaking of risk, beyond meat is in a momentum name per se, but it's definitely trending.

The stock went on a wild, mean-fueled ride this week, surging over 500% before crashing back down. We can even say up to 1,000%, a wild ride that shows the difference really between sustained momentum and short-term speculation. All right. A good look at that. Christina, thank you, Christina, Parts of Nobles. Cameron, wrap this whole thing up. You look at, you know, the internals of the market pretty closely. What's going on with the momentum trade? What does it tell you about? this market overall? If you want a live action risk of what could happen if the Fed continues to cut and the economy doesn't need it is look at the last two months of these momentum names that things have gone parabolic and that they've absolutely skyrocketed. It's not just momentum. It was

high beta, low quality names. Also gold probably falling into that camp as well. This is all of a sign of very abundant liquidity. You also see this big surge in leverage that has happened in retail accounts, FINRA margin loans are up 30% over the last six months. This is all indicative of a ton of liquidity sloshing around, looking for a home. And so this is the risk if you continue to add more fuel to the fire, that these things will continue to go up. All right. We'll leave it there.

Cameron, thanks. Ed, of course, thanks to you. And Professor, always great to see you as well. Thanks for the conversation. Definitely enjoyed it. Professor Jeremy Siegel at the Wharton School. For more on how today's CPI might impact the road ahead for rate cuts. Let's welcome in the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timrose.

It's good to have you. I don't know if you had a chance to listen to the conversation and the debate that the professor and Ed were having over what the Fed should do. I think we know what it will do, but what do you make of this idea that they may be walking into a problem if they cut into a situation where maybe they don't have to?

Well, I think, Scott, what you had in the CPR this morning is that whatever suspense there was around not just next week's Fed meeting, but the one in December, it went down after this report, right? The argument for the Hawks weakened a little bit here. Part of the problem simply is just we're not going to have that much data, perhaps, before the December meeting. But rate cuts were the path of least resistance before this report, and you lost some

of that resistance after the report. I think that, you know, on tariffs, you do see some pass-through. Everybody's saying, well, there's, you know, there's been no pass-through. You are seeing some pass-through. It's just relative to what people were worrying about in the spring and early summer, it's a lot less. So maybe this was a classic, you know, sales tactic by the president, make people sick, make them think you're going to see 4% inflation, and then they feel a lot better when it's only at 3%. It was at 2.4% in September last year, Scott.

So it really kind of depends on compared to what here when you're looking at, was this a good inflation report? Do you think that Chair Powell is worried about initiating a bubble in the stock market by continuing to cut? At levels we are, we're already at record highs. How do you think that he thinks about that? You know, this has come up time and time again, and it doesn't seem like it's ever been a huge worry. Look at the housing finance market right now. Look at financial conditions for housing. it's hard to argue that they are quote-unquote easy.

So, you know, there are, of course, different segments of the economy. Stock markets doing well, AI-related growth, doing great. But there are still parts of the economy. You see, you know, delinquencies rising on subprime auto, delinquencies rising on FHA loans. So I think it's you kind of have to take all of it and you can't just pick apart one sector versus the other. Is there any chance that they would go 50 basis? points and what would cause them to do that? Would they have to see data that would force their hand rather than do it preemptively? Yeah, I mean, 50 basis points on the on the basis of an

inflation reading where you're still at 3%. That doesn't make a lot of sense. I think to the extent that the inflation numbers aren't as bad as you worried they could be, it maybe remove some resistance if you were to see really ugly labor market deterioration, which, of course, we're not seeing while we're in the shutdown. When the data comes back on, you'd have to just see really ugly layer market data. And on top of that, the October payroll number is going to be already sort of mushy because of both the fork in the road, deferred Doge buyouts earlier in the year, and then the government shutdown, which could create some idiosyncrasies for these government workers who were furloughed in October. But, you know, 50 basis points is just not where the

conversation is right now. You'd have to see a lot worse data on the layer market, Scott. Look forward to our next conversation. Nick, thanks for joining us. Good weekend to you. Nick Timmeros of the Wall Street Journal. Thanks so much. We're just getting started here on closing bill. Coming up next, a big week ahead for big tech, as you know, Plexo Capital's low Tony. He's standing by to tell us how he's navigating that space now and what he thinks the big mega-cap tech stocks will deliver. We're live at the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching Closing Bell on CNBC. We're back five of the seven mega cap companies reporting earnings next week. The calendar of how

it will all go down is right there. It's a big one. All of the most important mega cap tech companies and then invidia a little bit after that but it's going to be big for more on what to expect let's welcome in low tony he's plexo capitals founding managing partners good to see you welcome back thanks for having me how are you think next week's going to unfold well i think it's going to be a bell weather for sure because we've had so much spend it's almost like a space race with over 300 billion dollars in capex on mostly AI infrastructure Sure. So I think the market's going to want to move from the promise to performance and profits. So let's see what these companies are delivering. You know, I think on the, if you look at meta, if you look at Alphabet, it's going to be a focus around are these AI investments driving monetization with their ad business and how are the margins themselves holding up with all of this cash flow going towards CapEx?

I think Alphabet in particular, you know, trying to balance this new frontier that we're in with AI becoming the new place for search and Alphabet and Google trying to figure out, okay, how do we balance this innovator's dilemma that we're in? Probably looking at more incremental additions on the AI side to the search experience as opposed to a complete redesign because we haven't quite seen what the monetization is going to look like. And then I think, you know, if we were to look at Microsoft and Amazon, I mean, that's probably more of a bellwether picture that we'll have given their cloud business. I'm kind of surprised, to be honest, the way you answered my first question, the first part of it, at least, where you say we're going to get some better information of how things look from promise to performance and profit. it. My thought is, how can we find that out now? Isn't it so much of that on the come that we're not going to know really whether these tens of billions of dollars that all these companies are spending is going to pay off in the near term, are we? Well, I think you're absolutely right in terms of the far picture, but I think we're getting snapshots. And let's be honest, investors want

to see more performance today as opposed to more prominent. and hype. I mean, look, you know, the Magnificent Seven in particular have created this cycle, and now it's upon them to be able to show that these numbers that they're spending, every dollar is translating somehow near-term, at least, into some type of return on their investment. I'm thinking about the news of this week, too, that we got with OpenAI, you know, rolling out their own browser. And the first stock you obviously look at in that is, is Alphabet. What do you think about the market share that they've had in search? There was a moment in time where the stock went down because of what Eddie Q said in a courtroom about, you know,

search declining on the browser. And then the stock had a tremendous recovery. How do you think about the threat? Yeah, and the threat is not only coming from OpenAI. Let's not forget that perplexity, the business of, you know, they aggregate a lot of the results of models. Perplexity has also put out their own browser. So, you know, I think people are coming at Google and Alphabet from multiple vectors. It's not only the ability to try and control that experience around search and creating a new paradigm that consumers do seem to be adopting when they're looking for information on the web, but it's also how do those consumers get there as well. And I think that's why we see these new browsers coming out of perplexity.

and Open AI, they want to get that entire experience, both not only the behavior of users, but also the user experience and platforms that the users have to be able to get to those solutions. So, you know, Google is under a lot of pressure. You know, I think they actually have the brain power to think through this. But again, I want to go back to that point. There's an innovator's dilemma here. It's going to be difficult for Google to be able to make dramatic shifts because they still, need to protect that $175-plus billion-dollar search business.

So I think you're going to see more incremental to be able to try and fend off all of these competitive threats. Do you have a good handle, do you think, on what's happening with quantum? You know, we have the reports of the government potentially looking at stakes refuted later in the day, but nonetheless, you know, these stocks have been pretty volatile. And I'm not sure that people know what's real, what's not, what's not, what's here, what's later. Yeah, this sector is moving so fast. You know, I think that it's hard to be able to really drill in from a consumer perspective at the retail side and really understand. I mean,

it's tough for me to even keep up and I'm in this space. You know, but I think when you look at the advancements that we're making and all of the, you know, the CAPX spend on the infrastructure for AI, the conversation tends to revolve around, hey, do we have the demand to meet this capacity, or are we a little bit too far ahead of the demand? The other way to think about it is the new technologies that will make lower requirements for energy, compute, and even data to feed these models, and quantum without question plays an important role. You know, it's a new paradigm.

It's a different approach to being able to solve the compute problem. When you look at a company like Nvidia or you mentioned AMD before I came on, I'm so sure that quantum is going to replace those. I think at least in the near term, quantum is going to be complementary and will make these models and the needs for AI on the compute side much more efficient. I appreciate the time, as always. Lo, thanks. Enjoy the weekend. That's Low, Tony. Still ahead. We drill down on what's driving Ford shares higher today. The bell's coming right back after this. Take a look at that up 13%. just went for $10 billion. They don't own the building. They don't own the network. They don't

have a WNBA team. They don't have a hockey team. Yeah, the good news is that now that private equity, sovereign wealth funds have started to come into the business. You can get some liquidity for your partners. There's a lot of action going on. In fact, yesterday's NBA owners meeting was shocking when you look at the changeover in ownership, right? We have the Celtics, having a big changeover. You have the Lakers contemplating a big changeover. But once private equity comes in, once smart money, if you will, comes in, you have to start acting like you're a real business.

That would be their expectation. And then they're going to be looking for an exit. That was part of my conversation with monumental sports and entertainment CEO Ted Leontes, on the soaring valuations of sports team. It's just been astounding, obviously. You can watch the entire interview tomorrow, the premiere of CNBC sport on the record at 3 p.m. Eastern right here on CNBC.

The Dow approaching its first close above 47,000 as we head towards the bells today. Up next, 314 research is Warren Pyes. They'll tell us what he thinks of stocks at these levels. The bell will be right back. Welcome back, the Dow about to close above 37,000 for the very first time, stocks more broadly at record highs as well. So the question now becomes, how far can this rally really run? We're joined now by Warren Pyes, these 314 research co-founder.

It's good to have you. Welcome back. It's good to be here. Thank you for having me. I mean, I guess that is the question. Just how far can stocks continue to go up? They don't seem to care about anything other than what's right in front of it. Earnings are good, rate cuts are coming, and the economy's strong.

I don't care about tariff headlines. I don't care about this, and I don't care about that. Is that where we're at? I think you're right. I mean, it's difficult to make a near-term bear case. I think we came through. There was a test for this market coming through the summer. It's a seasonally week period of the year,

and we had all these systematic buyers that I've spoken about with you on the show full of stock. We had corporations, which have been a big support to the market, step away during that period of time. And we had excess sentiment. You know, our gauge of sentiment was at 70, is extreme. Anything over 60 is optimism. That's come back down to 50. So here we are. We're entering into the seasonally strong period of the year. Sentiment has corrected. These systematic buyers

have normalized their positions. And corporations are coming back aggressively at the end of the year. And so we take all that, put it together. And then we say, strategies still have their median target below where the S&P is trading out to year in. When you look at all the Q4, where that condition has been at the start of the Q4, we're higher every year except for 2012. And so with the average about 4%. So you can project that out. And I think that's what we're looking at here. That's the base case. It has to be the base case. I left something out. I mean, this is a really interesting story that's moved in the last, you know, I don't know, hour or so by another news organization where they're quoting Citadel Security, Scott Rubner.

He talks about how powerful retail demand has been, that it continues to act as the price setter of this market. Retail traders responsible for 22% of trading volume in U.S. stocks. Individual investors have been net buyers of U.S. stocks in 23 of the past 27 weeks. What do you make of the power of the retail cohort, whether we are giving that group enough credit in the role it's playing in this rally? I think it's changing models in real time of how we look at this market. And I think it explains, I just laid out the case. Like many institutional investors were cautious over the summer, given what I just laid out.

And retail carry us through. And Scott's work aligns oftentimes with our work. And I know that. So you have that retail bid and then corporations come back at the level that we expect them to come back at more than a trillion dollar annual run rate that we've seen this year. That's a powerful combination. You know, all these systematic buyers and you throw retail in the mix, what it means is that we can reset sentiment and reset maybe that 3% correction we got in October was everything we're going to get. And I think that's a little bit surprising and shocking to the institutions. But yes, retail is buying the dip.

I think it's part of this debasement trade we've been laying out for a while. Yeah, I mean, maybe driving a lot of stuff, the momentum trade, certainly the meme activity. The other point that he makes is that you're going to start to get buybacks again. starting next week, right? We've had the blackout because of earnings period, and now you're going to throw that into the mix, too? Yeah, like I said, that's exactly what we're seeing. You know, we do seasonality of buybacks,

and that really ramps up here in about a week. And so that explains a lot of the seasonality that we see. So one of the things we saw is that during the May, April May period, when we had all of the tariff drama and the market was selling off, corporations were as much as, 8% of buying activity in the market. And so that was crazy levels that we've ever seen. So anytime we see corporation buying more than 1% of the volume in the market, we tend to

have strong days out of the equity out of the S&P 500. And so you're talking 8, 2, 3, 4, 5% regularly throughout this year. It's along with retail, like I said, it's a lot of buying pressures like trying to hold a beach ball underwater. It just can't, it doesn't work with the math there. So, yeah, you have to be bullish to your end. And then the other thing we hear is, you know, valuations and we've done a lot of work on valuations. And I don't see this market as really being overvalued, to be honest. All right. We'll leave it there. I mean, we're looking at the S&P 500, 6,800 is where it is as we're just wrapping up this conversation. Broadly, it's been an incredible move, Warren. Thank you for being with us. The Dow, as we said,

all hour long now, trending for 47,000. The first close above that, level. You got a five handle on the gain today, 522. We're at 47-255. So barring something strange happening over the next 15 minutes, you're going to eclipse that level and close above it for the very first time ever. But again, just to underscore it, I know this is the big number, but 6,800 on the S&P 2 just shows you the resiliency of this market. There it is. So we're right at that level. We'll follow that for the next 15 as well. We'll track the biggest movers as we head into the close as well. Christina Parts of Nevelas is standing by with that. Tell us what you see. And quantum computing, getting a major boost, sending one chip stock soaring, plus a retail

favorite. It's getting crushed. Those stock stories and much more when we come back. Well, less than 15 from the bell. Let's get back to Christina now for the stocks that she's watching. Tell us more. Let's start with AMD shares, because they're popping today on a Reuters report that IBM was able to run a key quantum computing error correction using the company's chips. And that's how you're seeing shares up over 7% because this is really seen as a step towards commercializing quantum computing and AMD is in the mix. Meantime, shares of Decker outdoor sinking after the Ugg and Hoka Maker reported a disappointing full year outlook. Sales in the United States, their its biggest market, are continuing to decline amid a cautious consumer environment. And so that's why shares are down almost 15% today

and more than 50% on the year. And lastly, shares of Booz Allen also in the red. after it slashed its outlook and continued to trim its workforce. The consulting firm, which gets nearly all of its revenue from government contracts, has been struggling this year amid cost-cutting efforts by the Trump administration. That's why shares are down almost 10% and 45% over the past year. Scott? Thank you very much. Christina Parts of Nevelas.

Coming up next, Coinbase rallying in today's session. We've got the details behind the call that's sending those shares soaring coming up. And we are on, as we said, Dow 47K watch on track to get it. We're on 6,800 watch, we're on 2,500 watch for the Russell. Got a lot of big numbers that could be hit over the next 10 minutes. It is that time. We are in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator, Mike Santoli, Newberger Berman, Shannon Sikosha here

to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Plus, McKenzie Sagalas is here on the rally in. Coinbase, Phil LeBow is tracking the action in Ford. Mac, we begin with you on coin. Coinbase shares are up around 10%, Scott, after JPMorgan upgraded its rating to overweight and raise its price target to $404, citing new opportunities and an attractive valuation. Now, the bank saying the stock still looks undervalued compared to other public crypto companies like Circle and Bullish. One key catalyst here, how Coinbase is monetizing U.S.D.C. that dollar-backed stable coin that it supports,

and Burke gets a substantial cut of revenue. J.P. Morgan says by limiting yields to its paying Coinbase 1 subscribers, it could materially boost earnings and better monetize the stable coin. The bank also sees upside in a potential Coinbase native token, which could reward activity on Coinbase's in-house blockchain and help drive growth. And Coinbase also in the process of applying for a bank charter to expand its payments business, those shares now up nearly 40% year-to-date, Scott. All right, Mac, thanks.

Kenzie Segalis. Phil LeBoe, big, big gain in Ford. What's going on? Huge day. Well, look, you had a number of things if you were a Ford investor where you could say, wow, this is turning out better than we expected. Look at the stock up more than 12% on the day. And there was some concern going into this, Scott, about the supplier fire with Novellis, the supplier of aluminum for the F-series. Well, yesterday Ford gave better than expected guidance in terms of the impact. $1.5 to $2 billion. There was not an impairment charge as many expected. They're managing it better than expected. The inventory that's in right now that they have, they can manage demand.

And as they try to build up the inventory over the next year, they're going to boost F-Series production in the United States by 50,000 vehicles. That's why when you take a look at Ford, one other thing to keep in mind, Scott. Remember back in April when the tariffs were announced, Ford said, well, we think the impact ultimately could be about $2 billion. Yesterday, they said the impact because of efforts to mitigate the costs will be about a billion. much better than expected. No wonder, Jim Farley was smiling with the Commerce Secretary in that picture that I saw.

You probably saw the same one. So we'll see. Phil, thanks. It's Phil LeBow. For good reason. All right, Shan, I mean, pick your spot. We could close above $6,800 on the S&P. We could close above $2,500 on the Russell, and we are going to close above $47K on the Dow.

Yeah, it's really the so-wet shutdown story, Scott. We're moving into another week of a government shutdown, and yet, you know, we got the data release we needed, right? The inflation data release, which continues to be supportive of what the Fed wants to do. They want to make sure they haven't seen that payroll data, but they can make some assumptions on secondary data to know what that looks like. As we go into next week, we've had a couple of hiccups, and I think that's really the story.

We've seen some of that, those credit concerns crop up. We've seen some questions about valuations and vendor financing, and yet this market continues to move higher. Mike, it's pretty impressive. I mean, what sticks out do you think most to you? I think essentially that it took very little in the way of a reset in prices to allow the market to kind of get back in gear. Because you did see some slippage in the gears.

Two weeks ago today, what actually happened? Well, you had this suggestion of re-escalation on trade, which identified a node of complacency in the market, that we had sort of set aside the tariff pressures, the threat there. So you had to be tested for that. at the same time, you know, little of the credit hiccups. And we buckled a little bit but didn't break. And I think once people saw that the momentum trade was not actually going to take the whole tape down, you got the macro as far as we can tell that we need.

That being said, today's action is interesting. It's what I would call a gap and nap, right? We pop 1% on the open and just sit there because nobody wants to sell it because everybody knows what the calendar says and, you know, earnings are coming through and all the rest of it. But it's also not a lot of urgency because guess what? Nobody really sold, so nobody has to buy back in. So I think that's why it's this kind of upward grind is probably a default understanding of what's going to happen. I heard the discussion about the retail trader.

There's no doubt, hyperactive, very hard to kind of, you know, handicap how that goes, except that there's going to be more buying than selling on average. But we could have said the same thing in the first quarter of 2021. Literally, it was said in the first quarter of 2021. Hey, it doesn't matter these companies have no profits. Retail wants them. And it works until it doesn't. So I'm totally in line with the idea.

Path of Leads Resistance is higher, but we're starting to maybe get to a point where the market's going to identify another note of complacency somewhere along the way. You know, and, Shan, it feels like trade is not going to be the thing that knocks this market down enough because every blip lower

or even more significant than a blip move lower on a trade headline is bought. It's got to be something else. Absolutely. This is going to be about China in 2026, Scott, and it's going to be much more limited in terms of sector and industry. It has to be fears about the potential for a more meaningful economic slowing. And right now, whether you're looking at the data we have or the data we don't have, we're not seeing evidence of that. And that gives the market some foundation for continued rally. Mike, I mean, you know, the market is just not going to get bogged down on the whims of the president as it relates to tariffs.

It's going to focus on the economy. It's going to focus on earnings, and it's going to focus on coming rate cuts, which are probably more nailed down today with the release of the CPI. For sure. And it's certainly not going to focus on threats and the rhetoric back and forth. We've seen that movie before. Exactly. And so I think it's a high bar for that being the thing. I really do think it's much more about what we're going to have revealed about whether there's been enough wear and

and tear on the consumer. Look, I dismiss University of Michigan consumer sentiment because it's been completely skewed and it's been a terrible guide to the market for a long time, but it's still in the dumps. And you're still seeing this idea out there that that's a perception the economy is not that great. Well, the S&P 500 is not the economy, okay? Because every time Google Anthropic whisper they have a deal about something, both, you know, Google goes up. And so I think you have a lot of a cushion from the AI theme. I just don't know how much of a cushion you have against any hint that the underlying path to the economy is not faltering just a bit. You expect nothing but good stuff next week, Shan, quickly on the mega caps?

I think we're going to get the numbers that we need, Scott. We might see a little bit of weakness, but certainly, to Mike's point, nothing to derail, I think, the momentum trade here. And again, there's going to be a lot of good news that's going to come from these companies about continued capbacks and continued continued acceleration of this movement to other sectors Yeah, thanks, Shannon. Have a great weekend. It's great to have you with us. So we're going to ring the bell here. Michael, thanks to you as well. A good weekend. So you've got a quick point you want to make? You're going to back off just a little bit here below 6,800. It doesn't really matter. We're losing a little steep. We're below 6,800 on the SST. We're above 47,000 on the Dow. So those are the numbers we were watching. We're going to be one for two.

It looks like everybody. Good weekend across the board into O.T. Thank you.