Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Keep Leaning Into the Rally? 9/8/25

Episode Date: September 8, 2025

Should you continue to lean into this record-setting rally? Morgan Stanley’s Sherry Paul, JP Morgan’s Meera Pandit and HSBC’s Max Kettner give their takes. Plus, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel tells us how he is navigating the AI space right now. And, we break down YouTube’s big bet on the NFL.

Welcome to closing bell. I'm Courtney Reagan. And today for Scott Wapner, we are live from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange. Well, this maker break hour begins with fresh record highs as we kick off a critical week for your money. Here's a scorecard with 60 minutes left in the trading session today. The NASDAQ clock in a new all-time high, thanks in part to another big move and shares of Broadcom. As for the sectors outside of tech discretionary and industrialists are showing some strength, while rate-sensitive sectors like real estate utilities are doing the worst. Which brings us to our talk of the tape, should you continue to lean into this record setting rally? Let's ask Morgan Stanley's Sherry Paul. Sherry, so good to have you here joining us on post nine. I mean, a big week, a big month always for the markets in September. We've got maybe some seasonality at play, maybe not. We continue to set record highs. Can we keep doing it?

Is there anything that gives you a little pause? It feels like it's a choose your own adventure in the market. You could choose to see things with a glass half full or half empty. What's your view? Well, I love that way you just phrase that. Choose your own adventure. So it's a great question. It's important, especially for individual investors, because just because the market hits new highs doesn't mean that we're not going to hit more new highs. And I think we had 56 new highs, I think, in the last year or 18 months in terms of this market climb. It is impressive. And the backdrop for those new highs is sitting inside of a really important moment in terms of tech innovation and what has now been, I think, more broadly branded as this industrial. revolution being driven by AI and that's something that we've been thematically investing in now for you know almost four years and so there are plenty of opportunities in the market for investors who might have a little bit of FOMO here but money placement's going to be key and

crucial going forward so there's been so much or or had been maybe it's past tense so much emphasis on the magnificent seven still big player still important or as you talk about AI is it all AI, whether you're a Mag 7 player or not. Well, yeah, I think it's important. What we're really talking to clients about now is why it's important to shift away from MagS7 into what we're calling the magnificent thematics. Yeah, so the thematics in which Magnificent 7 sit should actually be the engine that broadens out performance in the market.

And those four themes really are de-globalization, which fundamentally puts you in sort of defense stocks as the world kind of engages in more conflict. We have industrials and materials in that space, as an example, including tech. Obviously, the AI, you know, innovation revolution, which continues to push tech within software and cloud computing in particular, deregulation, which makes it great for financials, and we should start to see within these themes more M&A activity as we get into dereg. And then the one thing I think people aren't thinking enough about is longevity. And what it means to have an aging population sort of consume or state. in that existing housing, as an example, and what the implications are there.

So we're leaning into biotech in addition to technology. So there are plenty of thematics that transcend what we're calling the political and policy chaos that all four of which are communicating and accelerating one another in the same time zone. And that's a very powerful setup for earnings and innovation going forward. And that's the one thing that will transcend political volatility is innovation. And that's where we're leaning in right now for client portfolios. So it makes sense to me, and I guess regardless of what happens in Washington, that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to stymie innovation. But it has to have some influence, does it not?

It does. So, for example, like tariff policy, we'll weigh, let's say, you know, tariff policy is inflationary, and it may weigh on corporate profits and earnings, but it's not an innovation, an innovation disruptor. So tariff policy doesn't have any impact on longevity, as an example. And so the key to investing is looking, is learning, is really leaning your portfolio and looking around corners for innovation and earnings versus sitting in political climates or even overweeting a study on economics, which is sort of a confirmation of what's happened in the past. It tells us the conditions for investing, but it's not necessarily an investment strategy. And so as a portfolio manager for people who actually live in their money, as much as they want to understand what's happening, they want to know, well, what do I do now? what do I do next? And there's a portfolio out there for every risk profile and for every financial plan. It just depends on the composition. I'd love to understand your theory a little

bit more on tariffs because obviously we could be in limbo where we're sitting right now. I mean, it's possible a court decision could say, hey, actually the president is not able to have the authority to put these tariffs in place. We're going to roll them back. We're going to refund or maybe not, but does that not have some influence? I mean, my goodness, when this was coming out, it roiled the markets. And then when that decision came out from the court, markets didn't react very much. So do we not care about tariffs or do we? I'm so confused.

Well, you know, more than one thing can be true at the same time. Okay, I like that. And so it's something that we as investors should take account of and see how it threads through earnings. So, for example, right now I think 80% of companies beat earnings this last. quarter and we're full blown in the tariff conversation and this particular tariff conversation actually started back in 2020 you know if you kind of roll the tape back to the early days you know the pandemic I mean tariffs were on the table then and look at where we are now and so I always want to

emphasize that to investors because the thing that really is that you know we're here to help people make better decisions with their money so they can have better life money outcomes and we do that by deploying important information that will be the toolkit for people to not sit in fear. Okay, so fear is a form of paralysis. It's not an investment strategy. And so with this rapid pace of change in these four thematics that I just described, we're talking a lot about neuroplasticity as a key quality to being a good investor

because the ability for the mind to adapt to change and then change again is crucial. And so is financial ontological security, which for me and my world is building out that financial plan for people, that they know has either the airbag, whether it's bonds or gold, that can withstand the innovation volatility that we're going through with the political volatility as we move through. Because in the last 45 years, every year the market has started, at some point in that year has gone negative in the course of the year. And 35 years out of 45, it's into the year positive. So every year we have this sort of setback, a setback and a recovery. The two things we never know is causality and duration. And 90% of the time, if a market retraces, it's back to even within

1918 months. So if you're building out your life money plan to withstand that divot, then you can move your money into moments of growth. And right now, I believe we're in one of the most seminal innovation-driven bull markets since the late 90s. Wow. So much there. I'm so glad that you're sticking around because there's more questions I have for you. And for the panel, the neuroplasticity comment. I'm into that. I'm just learning about neuroplasticity. I'm trying to apply it in my own life. But I also want to bring in JPMorgan's Mira Pandit and HSBC's Max Ketner. Mira, you're sitting right here with us, so I'd love to sort of kick that innovation comment over to you. Sherry was talking about innovation and AI. I mean, it is the buzzword among

buzzwords. And for a while, all companies had to do was just drop a little AI, AI in their earnings call. And it seems like they got a stock pop. But now we want to see results, right? I mean, how do you make the AI trade work for you in sort of a targeted way rather than just a blanket? Hey, they said AI, I'm going to throw some money in that name, too. First, I think we are seeing some of that ROI come through. And investors are being, holding these companies to a pretty high standard in terms of understanding whether that investment is translating to revenue, is translating to greater productivity internally in terms of how these companies are operating, but also externally, are they selling their product? Are people buying into that and adopting? And while

we've seen some of the adoption start to falter a little bit, overall you're seeing that If you think about the AI revolution is happening in large part out to consumers in the last two or so years, we're probably tracking ahead of where many other technological advancements and revolutions have in terms of that adoption and ability to translate that. I do think, though, as investors, we have to think phase one of AI is about a concentrated, small number of names that hold all the cards. Phase two is all of the other beneficiaries starting to come into the full. So it's not just the Mag 7, and increasingly you're seeing a huge. huge dispersion with the mag seven. Half of them are beating the S&P 500. Half of them are woefully behind. So we have to really interrogate these companies on an individual basis. Then let's think

about the beneficiaries. We have the infrastructure. You're seeing industrials get a boost from AI. You're seeing utilities get a boost from AI when we think about that power generation story. And now we're also looking ahead to which companies are adopting AI, whether it's legal, accounting, financial services, health care into their businesses to become more productive and to help their margins. So the trade is only broadening out. The biggest risk to investors is being behind in the 1.0 as opposed to being flexible and having that neuroplasticity around the evolving opportunity set. So does it also have to do with your time frame them? It sounds like almost everyone, the way you're describing this, will benefit from AI to some degree at one of

these stages. So where are we now and where should you be focusing those investments now? We're in that phase two, heading into phase three. So it is, again, about broadening. outside of just a small number of names. Not only within tech, you're seeing other beneficiaries within tech itself, but then beyond the tech into, again, areas like utilities, industrials, the broader set of opportunities. But we don't have to be so narrow-minded. While innovation can take place over a number of years, the rest of the economy is still humming along. So think about something like financials has done pretty well this year. We're seeing a huge steeping in the yield curve. That gives us a lot of opportunity for some of the bread and butter

of those businesses to do well. So we also don't want to have innovation blinders on to forget about a lot of the other opportunities that are occurring in the market. Not just in the U.S. but internationally. We are in a year where some international markets are outperforming the U.S. in dollar terms by 20%. This is astonishing to see after years of waiting for international to start catching up. So we do also need to be mindful. It's not just about the dollar. There are also individual catalysts in different markets if you think about fiscal in Europe. AI in China. You think about corporate reform in areas like Japan and Korea. So we also don't want to ignore a lot of the other opportunities that we've actually been waiting for for almost a decade to really materialize that are materializing today.

Wow, that sounds like a lot of places where we can go. But I don't want to forget about you, Max. I know you're there. And from your notes, it looks like you're generally pretty risk on as well going forward. So maybe you agree with Sherry that some of the political noise is potentially just noise and not as influential. as maybe some market moves have suggested over the past several months. Is that correct? Yeah, look, I think it is correct for now. I think when we look at the tariff impact, that may well come. But I do speak to, you know, a lot of investors that say, well, ultimately that's going to have to hit margins or it's going to have to hit consumption.

And I always say, look, yeah, but probably the most important word that you guys just said is, ultimately, we don't know when that ultimately is. It might be in three months. It might be in six months. The crucial thing for me is when we look at earnings, you guys were talking about it before, you know, we just come out of an earning season that, you know, when we look at the beat rate and the S&P had really the best beat rate pretty much since COVID, since 2021. So the best beat rate really in four years or more than four years. So we had a really, really good reporting season, really good profitability. And a lot of that also was not only due to actually profitability being quite okay, but

also due to the weaker dollar. And that weaker dollar, those effects from the weaker dollar, they're still going to stick around now in Q3 and Q4 most likely. So we're still going to see that tailwind, particularly for the mega caps, for, you know, the behemoths of the market, the ones that are really driving the S&P's performance. And that is really, really supportive, particularly for the mega caps. But also, when we look at our data, when we look at the forward-looking forward-looking statements in the guidance sections, in the earnings calls from companies, then clearly what companies are telling us right now, they're not so much afraid about tariffs. They're actually telling us we're doing okay.

We're actually doing better than we thought three months ago. And indeed, when we look at, you know, the ratio of, let's say, companies upgrading their guidance relative to those ones that are downgrading it, that actually the ones that are upgrading it, are outpacing the ones that are downgrading them for the first time. also in four years. So genuinely, you know, as much as we spend time on talking about tariffs and talking about perhaps Fed independence and those sort of political day-to-day battles, the reality is that companies, particularly in the U.S. are telling us not only Q2 has been better, but even going forward, we are starting to see signs of improvement.

I have to say, I'm continually surprised. Maybe it's the skeptical journalist in me, but the way that companies have been able to perform in these times of, frankly, a lot more red ones thrown at them than maybe in the past. Sherry, you were nodding your head, I think, as Max was talking about some of the dollar impact and some of the international flows that Mira was talking about, what do you make of some of those comments, sort of the outside the U.S., the external influence is good or bad? How should we use that as part of our ammunition to building that portfolio? Well, look, I think for, you know, the bottom line is, you know, in a complex world,

I always advise clients to keep it simple. And being simple means liquid and dynamic. And that puts you in big cap balance sheets, no matter where you are in the world, in my opinion, because those are the ones that are most prepared to pivot in big, extreme moments of change. And so, you know, all roads lead to capex spending. You know, a lot of the talk about consumers may be weakening. I think we should just be focused on where companies are actually spending their money. And, you know, out of the sky has dropped this, you know, incredible innovation called artificial intelligence

that's a cost-reduction, productivity-enhancing technology that can replace the complexity of the geopolitics of human labor around the world. Okay, now I'm talking about going back to thematics, accelerating, and can enhance the ability to stabilize manufacturing, particularly if you're going to onshore it here. Along with next year, a lot of U.S. companies are getting a tax cut. That's going to kick in in January. And so as we start to look at how tariff implication might be more absorbed at the corporate level,

I think that the key point here is to stay in big balance sheets. I think that's why we're seeing a little bit of the head fake in the small caps. And while I appreciate that the European markets have sort of rallied for the first time, I want to say, in over a decade, that felt very stimulative, not falling into the grace of, wow, there's some transformative thematic here that's fundamentally changing EU manufacturing or expert policy in a way that would really warrant those returns in any long-term compounding rate of return sort of way. Now, understand that my heart-based bias, though, again, is to that person who's relying on their portfolio to, like, put their kid through college, pay for a wedding, build a dream home, or pivot into a new backcath through reimagining and stepping off out of work or doing succession planning within a family tree.

So I'm looking at how to build portfolios in a way that actually people live in them and breathe in them. And so in doing that, I think it puts you back into the United States in big cap U.S. companies. centered on innovation, and again, these thematics that will accelerate earnings. Like we were talking about, you know, financials, industrials, materials, and tech. There's one thing everyone should know is they're getting a pay cut, okay? They're getting a pay cut. We don't know how big the pay cuts are going to be. Morgan Stanley thinks seven cuts over the next year.

So if you've got a decision to make between knowing that you're going to take a pay cut and yet you're still worried about inflation or growing your way out of inflation through investing that puts you right back in the stock market. And there are plenty of ways to pull together the S&P 500 in a way that can meet that investor profile, whether it's dividend income, its growth, or some kind of a balance. And that's really where I'm urging and encouraging investors to go. Amira, we've made it through with this conversation without really talking about the Fed or inflation too terribly much. But it's something I think about a lot. Inflation, especially. It seems like the September rate cut is all but baked. And I think the market wanted to suggest we should go

for 50. I don't know if that's really on the table for the Fed or the market's trying to talk them into it. But is there a fear? Do you fear that we could restoke inflation by cutting too early, especially if maybe tax cuts are coming as well? I'm not sure that the cutting too early would be the element that restokes inflation, but I do think we still need to be mindful of how the tariff implications do start to play into inflation. Again, the keyword is ultimately, we don't know when and exactly they'll start to kick in, but we do believe that someone's going to fit the bill here, and partially that will likely show up through inflation. Now, if we head into next year, you also then do have larger than expected tax refunds

when we think about the implications of one big, beautiful bill. So if we do see a bit of a boost to growth, generally growth and inflation move in the same direction. We could see if inflation is already elevated, at least staying elevated. So it does sort of complicate the picture for the Fed because maybe they have that cut baked in for September, but they have to continue to monitor how inflation evolves in the back half of the year. And then into next year, when we probably also have a growth boost. That growth boost is likely to be temporary. So you also have to think a little bit about the timeframes here. And what I think they're probably trying to weigh is the Fed has said many times over that the tariff inflation could be transitory or temporary.

Labor market weakness typically is not something that is temporary or transitory. So how do they weigh these factors? The jobs report has certainly complicated that for 2026. That's a tough job. I do not envy where they sit right now. Max, before we have to wrap it up, I want to give you the final word. Yeah, look, I think on the September cut issue, I think that's pretty much baked in, yes. It remains to be seen how many cuts we really can see over the next, let's say, 12 to 18 months. Where I do disagree with the market is when we look at now the market really pricing sub 3% or sub neutral rate from the Fed. So really, you know, something like more than six rate cuts by December next year really does seem a bit punchy.

that I don't necessarily agree with. Because, you know, you guys were just talking about the growth, you know, the growth impulse that we could be seen, even if it's temporary, I do feel that, you know, if we start to see then the first sort of lacked impact from rate cuts, the lacked positive impact from rate cuts sometime next year, plus a growth boost from fiscal and taxes. There's a reasonable basis then to make that actually the market then starts pricing rate hikes again. Again, that is way too early to think about it.

But think about sort of the second half. for next year and going into 2027, there's a reasonable case for that then to be made if indeed we get all these impulses in these, at least, you know, temporary stimulus measures through. All of that, you know, does suggest that rates really have gone a little bit too far ahead. Really interesting, very full conversation. I appreciate all of your input. Sherry, Mira, and Max, we could keep going, but alas, we got to move on to other things. Thank you for being here with us. I'm going to send it over to Christina Parts of Nevelas. She's got a look at the biggest names moving into the close.

Christina, what you see? Those other things include Etsy on track for its fourth street daily advance, despite ongoing concerns about tariff-pendons. Last week, the company announced it appointed Arafi Colburn as its chief product and technology officer, effect of 25th. You can see shares up over 7%, but still not regaining that loss that we saw in September, year-to-date only up about 10%, we'll call it. Let's move on to shares of Echo Star surging today after it agreed to sell spectrum licenses to SpaceX.

The deal is for about 17 billion bucks. or it's $8.5 billion in cash and up to $8.5 billion in stock. And there you can see, shares up. Look at that. 250% year-to-date. Bam! And last but not least, Canada Goose surging today on the strength of an upgrade from TD Cowan. An analyst over there seeing a catalyst and the brands move to year-round lifestyle outerware product alongside their recent modernization efforts, and that's why shares are up over 12% today. Court?

Thank you so much, Christina. Watch the other things that we weren't able to get to in that very full. conversation. And we are just getting started because, of course, there's more. So next, the Wall Street Journal. Out with the new op-ed, Trump's risky game with the Fed will hear from one of the authors behind that piece with what's at stake for the economy that's coming up after the break. We are live from the New York Stock Exchange. You are watching closing bell on CBC. Welcome back. Well, a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend called Trump's Risky Game with the Fed.

CNBC Senior Economics correspondent Steve Leesman joins us alongside one of the authors behind that piece. Steve? Thank you, Courtney. I'm joined by Anil Koshap. He is a professor of economics and finance at the Boo's School of Business at the University of Chicago. Anil, thanks for joining us. Thanks. Glad to be here, Steve. So you believe that the administration is playing a dangerous game playing with the independence

of the Fed. Tell us what your concerns are. Well, it's two things. First, the fiscal situation has been building for many years and is going to put pressure on the government to issue a lot of debt. So somebody's going to have to hold that. And secondly, the president has been pretty forthright in saying that he wants to just push interest rates down because he somehow thinks that's going to help finance the debt. But of course, the people that are watching that are going to see that if you push interest rates down,

you're going to risk more inflation. And this whole thing could backfire in a pretty bad way. And so the basic point of the op-ed was to say, you've got to tackle both of these things. You've got to do something sensible on fiscal policy. And you've got to make sure that the Fed, if something goes wrong, is prepared. to try to stop the inflation.

So we don't have to live through another period like we did just after the pandemic where everybody's frustrated. Anil, obviously you wrote this article with the legendary investor, Ken Griffin. Tell us how this came about. Well, we talk on and off for many years. So I knew he was probably concerned

about some of the same things I was. So we reached out and we talked, you know, texted for a while, and then had a couple phone calls to see if we were in the same. place and it wasn't surprising we are. So it was kind of a collaboration. One of the, much more courage for him to come out and say these things in for me. There's a point. One of the things that we have a development just today is the idea that

Stephen Myron could be confirmed as soon as the 10th of this month, maybe even sitting for the September 16th meeting if the Senate, the full Senate can confirm him. Is there an issue in your mind with the idea that he is going to remain as the CEA chair? Yeah, that's very troubling to me. You know, Secretary Besson over the weekend had a thoughtful piece that had a lot of stuff in it about what the Fed needs to do. And I share many of the things he said. He said independence has got to be earned.

It's not just something you take for granted, that the Fed has done a lot of things that you wouldn't have imagined as of 20 years ago. and that they made a bad mistake letting inflation get out of hand. But the thing that's critical is once they realized the mistake, they pivoted very, very aggressively in an unprecedented fashion. If you think back to when they did those 375 basis point hikes in a row, nobody saw that coming. And that's when you require an independent Fed.

It was when something gets into trouble, and the administration is welcome to not be blamed for doing something like that. And so if you're going to put somebody in to be a member of the Fed, there's got to be no doubt that they're not doing somebody else's bidding. And I can't see any good reason why he needs to take a leave. If they can organize to get him onto the Fed in three weeks, then if he wants to go back to the CEA afterwards, they can organize to get him reappointed the CEA in due course. And let me say one other thing, Steve. the logic for why he's taking a leave is, oh, it's only going to be four months. But you know, and anybody watches the Fed knows, if his term expires, he can stay indefinitely until the president nominates someone else.

So that's a red herring. Are you concerned about what he might do, for example, with the jobs report? Doesn't the CEA chair brief the president on the jobs report typically? Yeah, I mean, he was asked in his hearing, do you think the numbers were rigged to make the president look bad? And whoever's at the CEA sees the employment numbers before they're published. So they go through them with a fine-tooth comb. They know all about the sampling issues that are there. They're well aware of how those numbers are put together by hundreds of people.

There's no chance that those numbers were rigged. And he had to know it. And the fact that he wouldn't answer it is concerning. Because that's just a simple fact that anybody who's aware of things would have signed on to in three seconds. And, Neil, I don't want to leave the impression that you are a 100% supporter of the Fed. In fact, you're among the people I know that has been critical to Federal Reserve. And you said you agreed with some of the things Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said in his article.

Do you think the Fed expanded its brief, this idea of gain of function? Did the Fed go too far and did it itself endanger its own independence? Well, I don't think anybody was saying it openly. until the inflation broke out. This whole thing about the climate stuff was something that was fashionable, and most other central banks signed on to some of that. They certainly took some gambles

right after the global financial crisis. If you'd think back to the day after Bear Stearns was rescued, nobody would have ever thought that they were prepared to do that, let alone then what they did for AIG and some of these other facilities. And then again, after COVID, there were enormous support given for the market, the amount of QE and all of that. And I've written about how I think they should have ended the QE sooner.

So it's not like they've been flawless. But I think the one thing we know from all the other experience is putting in people that are accountable to the executive branch is a recipe for short-termism and ultimately disaster. Neil, thank you for joining us. I look forward to continue the conversation and reading further about your thoughts about how to make this a better central bank and perhaps keep it independent. Neil Kachap from the Boos School of Business at the University of Chicago. Courtney? Steve, Mel, thank you very much. That was a great conversation. Well, up next, Evercores Julian Emanuel tells us how he's playing the AI space right now. Conversation will continue from earlier on the show. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell podcast. your favorite podcast app. Closing VAL, we'll be right back. Welcome back and mixed picture for the majors as investors gear up for a data heavy week,

including too closely watched inflation readings, PPI and CPI. Our next guest says a near-term pullback is a buying opportunity, especially for AI-driven leaders. So here with Moore's Evercores, Julian Emanuel, we were speaking about this earlier on the show. I don't know if you had a chance to listen, but for so long, AI seemed like a buzzword, and all you had to do is just drop it here and there in an earnings call, and you got a little pickup in your stock price. But now we need to really see some of those gears turning. We need to see what it means to actually be capitalizing on AI. What should we be looking for here, even if you see some choppy movement before we really take off?

Yeah, and look, again, if you think about it within the context of the last great technological revolution bull market, the Internet of the late 1990, Chinese, choppy movement is part of the script. And so in that respect, considering we've gone up almost uninterrupted since the April low, which itself was a scary chopper, as we know, it's to be expected that we might have a little bit of indigestion, particularly September into October, when we've got uncertainty. We're going to have a payroll revision number tomorrow that everyone is sort of focused on. And again, the inflation figures.

tariff rulings from courts, all of these things together. But what we're looking for specifically is the continuation of this dialogue from corporate America in general that we've heard for the last several months that they're actually becoming front foot on talking about how they're using AI to generate revenue, not just the cost save, it's the revenue generation, and you're seeing it across industries. And for us, that really bodes well for the setup into 2026. It's interesting because Sherry Paul from Morgan Stanley was on earlier in the show. And she said, yes, of course, there's tariff noise.

There's other macroeconomic uncertainty. You're talking about CPI and PPI and maybe a jobs revision. But she says that doesn't really matter so much because innovation is where it's at. You've got to stay focused on AI. But you're sort of saying, yes, but we could be choppy getting there because of those macroeconomic headwinds. But basically you're saying, hold tight, use the opportunities. We are. Because again, going back to – and if you think about sort of February, March, and April, great bull markets, and this is a structural AI technology-driven bull market, great bull markets, find ways to try to get investors to get off the theme, to do some selling. And our feeling here is you don't do that because basically when you think about it, what really drives stock prices higher in the long term is,

earnings and we're very optimistic on earnings into 2026. Okay, so you talked about revenues, now you're talking about earnings. Can you give us some more specifics? If you're someone that doesn't know that much about the AI trade, you just know it's the future, but you're also maybe a little worried it's a bubble because you also talked about sort of that bump that we felt in the late 90s when we saw this last big internet revolution.

What should you be looking for as you're choosing your investments on those dips for AI? Well, I would say, say the default is always, and this is sort of the natural gravitation of the AI trade itself, is that the index weightings have become much more convex to the AI theme. So that's sort of a good way to think about it. But again, there are companies who in their conference call transcripts have been very public about how they're using and deploying AI. And importantly, and we like these types of screens, not only are their valuations reasonable

based on their last five years history, but they have upward earnings revisions. In a tape like this, where there is some uncertainty, those are the kinds of safeguards that to us really are an extra edge. And you have some advice for hedging? We do. And again, the whole concept here of hedging

is to actually make sure that if we get the pullback that we're looking for, that you're not sort of, you know, mentally out of the game there, that you're actually, if you're hedged, that you're able to buy the dip, because buying the dip has been a strategy that's worked for many years. And so for us, if you're fully invested in AI and you want to hedge, triple Q downside puts are great, but you can also tilt towards lower valuation type stocks, again, with the same earnings revision momentum. When the overall market gets as expensive as it is right now, lower valuation-type stocks tend to outperform. Do you have any ideas specifically? We're

talking about lower valuation? Well, they're really across industries. And so the interesting thing there is, you know, if you think about it from on a sector-neutral basis, there are a lot of technology stocks that aren't valued at 40, 50, and 60. 60 times and that are still growing earnings. And those are the kinds of names that, again, to safeguard a portfolio in the near term that's exposed to the winners and the hyperscalers and the Mag 7, you know, that really guards the portfolio. And it's not all tech, because you're talking about Long Horizon investors also looking at

communication, consumer discretionary, those names too. Absolutely. What are you looking for there then? Well, again, it is the engagement in AI and it's the ability to, to continue to grow revenues and to grow earnings. Because, frankly, again, when you look at it, the macro environment is somewhat uncertain. We don't even know what the date is supposed to look like. Very much so.

Julian, thank you so much for being here. Thank you. A lot of uncertainty, but we turn to folks like you to help us wade through it all. Well, up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. Christina Pardsonelis is standing by with that. Hi, Christina. Hi, Courtney. So we have major index changes sending shares soaring of several names, plus gold hitting an all-time high as traders really bet on more Fed cuts. And that means,

of course, some big stock movers. That's why don't change in travel. We'll be done. Just a touch over 15 minutes until the closing bell. Let's get back to Christina for a look at key stocks to watch. Hi, Christina. Hi, Courtney, again. Robin Hood, App Loven, soaring today after the S&P Dow Jones announced they're going to join the S&P 500 on September 22nd, a few days before my birthday, replacing Caesar's entertainment and market access in the quarterly rebalancing. Newtanox also joining the S&P midcast.

I should point out that's why they're up over 10, 11%. But Nutanics also joining the S&P mid-cap 400 in an index, and that's driving positive sentiment. As investors really see it as validation of a company's stability and growth when they're added to these indices plus index funds, you know, they track these names and then need to buy the stocks to match their portfolio weighting, which is why you're seeing Nutanics up about 7.5%.

Elsewhere, TransUnion, jumping right now, over 4% on a strategic partnership with true work to expand income verification services. This partnership really builds on TransUnion's earlier investment in the company shares up, though, only 1% year to date. Lastly, gold hitting a fresh record after Friday's week jobs report, which boosted bets on rate cuts. Traitors now expect nearly three cuts this year, lower rates make non-yielding gold, more attractive lifting miners like Kinross Harmony, and you can see Heckla mining all soaring today. There you go. Court. Yeah, some good moves on those gold miners. Christina, thank you.

Lots of energy today. Well, still ahead, NVIDIA CFO speaking at Goldman Sachs' Communicopia Conference. We've got the latest. Guess who? Christina. Closing bell. We'll be right back. We have a jam-packed line up coming your way on CNBC tomorrow with a roster of power players in the market.

It all kicks off at 5.40 a.m. Eastern with an exclusive near you with Starbucks CEO Brian Nichol. So grab your cup of Joe. Then Carlisle CEO, Harvey Schwartz, joins the gang-out squawk box at 7 a.m. Eastern. Then we'll hear from J.P. Morgan CEO, Jamie Diamond, on halftime report, followed by Morgan Stanley's CEO, Ted Pick. Then Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon, joins Wednesday. Keep it plugged in right here on CNBC. Tons of heavy hitters. Well, up next, YouTube's big bet on the NFL, the figures behind this weekend's game and what it might mean for the rest of the sports media space, that and much more when we take you inside the market zone. We are now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC senior markets commentator Mike Santoli here, as always, to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.

Plus, Julia Borson here with more on YouTube's big bet on the NFL. And Christina Parsonableness, she's back. She's all over the NVIDIA, CFO this time is being at Goldman's Communicopia Conference. Mike, we will start with you. You know, look, there's a lot going on in the environment. particularly when we're talking about monetary and fiscal policy. The market, though, taking it in stride. Everything seems calm.

Why am I the only worrywart? Well, I think for one thing, quote, you're not the only worry word. I think a lot of folks are asking exactly why the market is so placid right now. You have the volatility index down to 15. I think a couple of things we can point to. One is just deep confidence in the earnings trajectory, which has been proven through this reporting season. Credit conditions incredibly strong, and we still do have kind of the protective sponsorship of the very largest stocks in the market, or at least enough of them at any given time, to where any pullbacks

remain very contained. So today it's Broadcom and it's Nvidia and it's Amazon, even though the average stock down a third of a percent, the S&P's hanging in there. So that's been a theme, especially in the notoriously weak August and September period. We'll see if we keep getting lucky in the news flow cooperates, but the market doesn't want to extrapolate the bad jobs number into genuine risk to the overall economy. Yeah, and it does seem like we sort of shook off that jobs number, but we have CPI, we have PPI coming up. It wasn't that many months ago when we were all bracing for the CPI report,

and we really did see an impact on the markets, but not so much do you think anymore? We're past those fears. Markets insisting it's more or less past the inflation crisis. I mean, the 10-year yield today cracking below 4.05 percent does indicate that. I mean, I even saw some work suggesting there could be a downside surprise in CPI for some technical reasons. Maybe that opens up the 50 basis point cut. So right now, it feels as if Wall Street is saying the labor market feels like it might be the most conspicuous, weak point in an economy that otherwise isn't really falling apart. The services sector is fine.

AI CAPEX is okay. The wealth effect from rising markets is supporting high-end consumer activity. Really interesting. Obviously, there's so many cross currents under the surface. but by just looking at the numbers, you may not know it. So it's a good thing you have us here, or you're here with us to go through it all. Thank you, Mike. We'll catch you in just a moment.

But I want to move to Julia because she's got a story for us on the NFL, on YouTube. I mean, gosh, I guess maybe it's worth the big bucks after the game last night with the bills. I didn't see the whole thing, but I saw the highlights. My husband said it was one of the most exciting games he's potentially ever watched. Well, Courtney, YouTube's first exclusive NFL game was Friday. It was in Brazil between the Kansas City Chiefs and the L. Charters and it brought in 17.3 million viewers, about 16 million of them in the U.S. The other streamers coming from 230 countries and territories around the world.

So are those ratings a win for YouTube? Well, viewership is down from the 28.3 million viewers who watched the season opener game, the prior day on NBC and Peacock, and down from Netflix's Christmas Day games, which averaged 24 million viewers. But viewership was roughly in line with ESPN's average Monday night football games last year, viewership actually increased 14% from last year's game in Brazil, which streamed on Peacock and drew 14 million viewers that was behind the subscription paywall, whereas this game was available for free. And it was technically a success, streaming without a hitch. Back over to you.

Thank you very much, Julia. Christina, Christina, you haven't been busy at all this hour, but what can you tell us now about InVIDIA CFO? It is my busiest hour of the day. And I'm going to start with The CFO Collette Crest, speaking at the GS conference, and she said that essentially InVIDIA did receive license approval to ship H20 chips to China, and these are to key Chinese customers, but geopolitical tensions between governments are still creating delays. Chinese customers do want assurance that governments will approve receiving this architecture before they actually buy it. The CFO also believes there's a strong possibility shipments will proceed, potentially adding significant revenue. That is a key point. But several firms are still pushing back on AI bubble fears today, pointing to continued infrastructure spending that should benefit NVIDIA. NVIDIA shares wide up 2%, but still down 7% this month after disappointing earnings and Broadcom CEO, also suggesting clients will favor their chips over NVIDIA's.

That prompted City to cut their price target, $10 to $200, though they did keep their buy rating. So really just always a lot of news coming out for NVIDIA, Courtney. Absolutely. And of course, a big focus AI this hour, so it's a good way to sort of button things up. going to go to Mike Santoli and give you the final word. Mike, so it looks like we're going to do it for a new record for the NASDAQ here. Yes, so the NASDAQ has kind of retaken the lead. It actually had been the one that got a little bit of a deeper pullback.

The S&P 500 has been hanging within 1% of its old high. 6,500 may be an interesting threshold for that index. I was pointing out a lot of a long-term target from a year ago that seemed super outrageously bullish. We're around 6,600 in the S&P. So we'll see if that ends up being. a plausible near-term target and whether that's kind of a we did it moment. Absolutely great stuff. Here we go into the closing bell.

Utilities are your laggard of the day down 1%. Tech is your winner, higher by two-thirds of a percent. Broadcom in that tech sector up 3%. That does it for closing bell. Let's send it over into overtime with Morgan Brennan and John Ford.