Closing Bell - Closing Bell: Market Ready to Move Higher? 4/9/26

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson maps out his forecast for stocks and his post-war market playbook. Plus, top analyst Mike Mayo tells us what he’s expecting from the banks this earnings season. And, there are also more places to watch The Masters than ever. CNBC’s Alex Sherman explains all the details. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Guys, thanks very much. Welcome to closing bell. I'm Scott Wobner, live from Post 9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. This maker breakout begins with another jump for stocks today. Let's get your right to the scorecard with 60 to go in regulation where green across the board was just before noon that the market did jump higher on a headline that Israel and Lebanon would engage in direct talks. Spent some headlines in the last 30 minutes or so that we're following closely and watching every single market move, including oil, which did slip lower today. Obviously watching that, it's now reversed too. So oil WTI is back towards 100. There is Brent about 96 and a half. Discretionary names, they are leading the market today. You see some of the travel related, some of the restaurant names, retailers, et cetera. Gains today in Tesla and Amazon, that's the big reason why the discretionary sector is the outperformer. They're among the biggest stocks in it.

So that's what happens. Some nice follow-through as well from META after Wednesday's huge movement. There's a 2.5% gain there. The deal with CoreWeave, that company has that stock also sharply higher by more than 3%. The chip equipment names on your screen there getting a nice bump as well. The banks, they're green ahead of their earnings next week. Mike Mayo coming up in just a bit with his expectations. There it does take us to our talk of the tape, a market that certainly feels like it wants to go higher,

as long as the headlines keep working in its favor for the very latest on the war and the ceasefire. Let's go to the White House now our Megan Kisela. Hi there, Megan. Scott, we're tracking a lot of fast-moving pieces on this conflict between Israel and Lebanon. And just in the last half hour or so, Israel's defense forces out with a new statement on social media, saying that, quote, they continue to fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon with great intensity. They're differentiating in this statement, Scott, between entering into a ceasefire in Iran while continuing to fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And this statement coming after earlier this afternoon, you referenced this statement.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was out with a new statement saying that he had instructed his cast cabinet to open direct talks with Lebanon. That then soed some hope that there could be a pause to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Scott, just remember the context for all of this is that the Iranians had thought the ceasefire that we've been talking about included Lebanon as well, that it was a ceasefire everywhere. The Israelis did not agree with that. The White House said that, of course, they claimed that Lebanon had not been part of it as well.

Then the Iranians this morning were saying that if that was true, that threatened the ceasefire, that threatened the broader negotiation starting this weekend as well. So it had been seen as a sign of hope that Netanyahu was open to talks, but not committing to stopping any attacks. And now the lit very latest, Scott, is that IDF says that attacks against Hezbollah are continuing. So lots more to watch here as to how all this develops. No doubt. Anything new? Bring it to us, please. That's Megan Kassella there, North Lawn of the White House. Joining us now is Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, it's good to have you and playing off the headlines that we heard from Megan. I mean, this is still a fragile situation it feels like, yet you appear to me, at least from your notes,

to be confident that good times are ahead. Yeah, how are you doing, Scott? I mean, I would say that, you know, the markets trade in the future, as we like to say. And, you know, it's hard for me to imagine that six months from now things aren't probably better. Okay, there's always tail risk and things like that. But, I mean, markets have a way of looking past the moment. And I think that's what they've been doing now for the last several weeks. We have no idea how this is ultimately going to resolve itself.

But I harken back to 2022 when, you know, Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices, you know, peaked. And the rate of change on oil is what matters. It's like the rate of change on tariffs last year. So I think the market has discounted a lot of bad news this year, whether it's the private credit concerns, AI disruption on labor markets. And I think there is still one final hurdle we got to get past, which is this transition at the Fed. and this pivot back away from inflation to maybe growth concerns, or at least being willing to support markets if they need to be. There are some who would counter and say you need still a much larger move lower in both oil

and yields to get, I think, more of a credible. The coast is clear. Do you support that view? Yeah, I 100% agree with that. But the problem is by the time it's that definitive, you've probably missed the opportunity. So that's why you've got to sort of pivot yourself into that. And look, we look at a lot of things, Scott, like you do and your viewers do and your other guests. I mean, you have to take it to account sentiment, positioning, valuation, and the technicals.

And we got to a point in the last couple of weeks where it felt like that was kind of it. And, yeah, maybe we might go lower here or there. But, you know, the idea of putting capital to work is not to call the exact day, but to call when it's good risk reward. Interesting. So in that environment, what is the Mike Wilson post-war playbook? look like? Well, it looks a lot like what we were doing kind of before the war, okay, which is that we were seeing a real broadening out. You know, we believe that there was an economic trough last year that was akin to a recession. And we were at the beginning stages

of a new economic recovery. We've called it, in fact, the rolling recovery. And what leads in that is typically your pro-cyclical groups. And we've focused on consumer, consumer discretionary in particular, which is leading today, you know, industrials and financials. And those three areas were getting hit quite hard, obviously with the spike in oil. And so we think the reflexive move back to those groups could be the most powerful. Gosh, I feel like, you know, as long as oil remains elevated and you still at least have some concerns about inflation remaining sticky, right? We're still not at target. And we, if anything, are moving in the opposite direction, albeit incrementally and quite slightly, but nonetheless, we are where we are, which feels to me

like it could be a headwind to that broadening trade that works so well, in part on the expectation of coming rate cuts. Well, that's exactly right. And that's why I think that's the final hurdle. I do think once we know the new Fed chair is, that transition is complete. I think the market will then look forward to the second half, where I think the next Fed chair will be probably a bit more willing to cut rates. I mean, at least the nominee has said so. What about the mega caps, Mike? I mean, that's a good point of contention. They've helped lead the rebound here in the market. Their multiples have compressed.

Some would suggest their earnings are going to be better than everybody else's, and their multiples are even more attractive now than they were to some before. So why not just ride that horse that you know is going to get you to the finish line? Well, that's right. And that's the other side of our barbell. So we wrote about that this past couple weeks, that, you know, the area that looks quite interesting to us as a defensive group with offense is the basically the hyperscalers, and that's part of the MAG7. And so that group looks extremely

attractive from evaluation and risk rewards standpoint. And they are picking their heads up, as you mentioned. And I think that's a perfect other side of the barbell to our pro cyclical trade. So I agree with you 100% on that. Do you look at what's happening like some others do in software and suggest it's just not healthy for the market? And at some point, it's going to be a bigger headwind than it makes. is now. If software continues to trade poorly, yesterday the market ripped, one of the best days we've had in an awfully long time, that cohort was miserable. Yet again, do we need participation there for technology more broadly to look better? I don't think so. I think, you know,

technology is a very diverse group. In fact, it's kind of interesting to me, you know, it's rare for the hyperscalers and the semiconductors to work kind of hand and glove because, you know, if the hyperscalers are spending more, then people don't like that for those stocks, but that's good for the chip stocks and vice versa. And software is somewhere in between. And I think we're in the stage now with this software correction where we're going to have to figure out there are going to be some losers, and there are going to be some winners, though.

And I think we're not quite to that stage. I mean, yesterday is a great example where it's an easy short for people to keep on because we don't know the answer. And so that's not what they wanted to buy in a day where it's just pure beta. But I do think we're going to see those stocks start to do a little bit better. Individually, I'm not willing to make a call as a group. I don't think the sector as a wholesale call makes a lot of sense here. Microsoft, though, to me, stands out as a pretty darn good risk reward at this point.

Oh, interesting. I don't see private credit in your notes anywhere. I do not see those two words, which makes me want to, should I suggest that it hasn't risen to the level of great concern for you? Well, I think it is a great concern for the areas that are affected, right? I mean, there's always bad underwriting. There's always bad credit out there. And I think the market is surgically taking care of that. I mean, you've seen some of the private credit manager stocks trade poorly.

You've seen the areas affected the most. In fact, software, that's really the story there, quite frankly. So I think the market has done a really good job of discounting that issue, where I think, you know, viewers should understand. We do not think this is systemic, okay? Meaning this is not going to infect the entire banking platform and banking system in the way that it did say in the GFC, with housing. And so in that instance, that's why we stepped up and sort of doubled down on the

financials call two weeks ago. Oh, so you, and you think the earnings season, which is expected to be really strong across the board, is going to get off to a good start with that group? I do. I think the banks are going to look quite good. I think the stocks have, you know, sort of reflected that in the last week or so they have snapped back sharply. And so I bet from our standpoint, the credit issues within the banking system are not there in a broad way that I think people were starting to fear. All right, enjoyed the conversation. It's nice to have you back. Mike, be well. We'll see you soon. Thank you. It's Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley. Now to that pop for shares of Amazon today. For more on what is behind it,

let's bring in our Kate Rooney out in San Francisco. Hi there. Hey, Scott. So investors really appear to like what Amazon CEO Andy Jassy had to say in his annual letter this morning, a very bullish tone on AI and Amazon's custom chips. He says we are not going to be conservative in how we play this. Disclosed for the first time AI cloud revenue hit a $15 billion run rate for AWS, addressed The $200 billion in CAP-X plans, which had been a drag on the stock this year, says they are not just spending on a hunch. Amazon does expect to see negative free cash flow this year. Jassy calls it a time of very high growth,

says they are willing to endure short-term headwinds for that long-term payoff that he's suggesting is coming. And he finally talked about some of the optimism on Amazon's custom semiconductor business to compete with NVIDIA. Jassy says that business is on fire. His words, changes the economics, well for AWS. He does expect some of these custom chips to actually save Amazon tens of billion dollars in CAPEX per year, Scott. All right. Kate, thank you. That's Kate Rooney. Meta the other big tech winner today, and that's after the stock surge yesterday.

Julia Borson joins us now with more on that. Hi there. That's right. Meta shares rising about 3% today on an announcement that Medable spend $21 billion on AI infrastructure from CoreWeave. Now, this is on top of a previously announced $14 billion that Meta is spending on CoreWeave's computing capacity to help build its new AI model, which meta launched yesterday, calling this model Muse Spark. The stock gained 6% yesterday on that announcement, putting this week's gains and more than 9%. Wall Street's reaction has been largely bullish with Dapy Morgan saying, quote, the launch of Muse Spark should provide increased confidence in meta's scaling traditional. and improve investor sentiment. Today's gains come despite Iowa's Attorney General announcing late last night that the state has filed a lawsuit against META for breaking consumer protection laws, adding to the slew of

lawsuits and trials the company is now facing. Scott? All right, Julia, thank you very much for that. That's Julia Borsden. Now let's bring in our panel. Ed Yardinney of Yardinney Research and Invesco's Brian Levitt. Gentleman's good to have you. I feel like after listening to Mike Wilson that you're on.

team Mike Wilson that you're wearing your Mike Wilson jerseys today. You agree with, you agree with a lot of what he had to say, right? Absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, I've been talking about the roaring 2020s for a while since 2020. So I'm glad to hear him basically describing that kind of outlook. So none of the headlines or the fragile ceasefire factors, oh, they do. Largely. That's a key word, largely, because I feel like you're looking through it. Yeah, I think the market's looking through it. I'm looking. And the reason for it is historically geopolitical crisis have been buying opportunities. And the problem is everybody knows it.

So you don't really get much of an opportunity. It doesn't last very long and it doesn't go very far. I would say though when Russia invaded Ukraine, we had a 25% bare market. There was a geopolitical risk. The economy did not go into recession, did fine. So that was a nine-month experience. This one is so far as lasted about a month. I mean, you know, the peak in the market, all-time record high,

was January 27th and here Monday of last week, we seem to have made a low. And everybody's now focusing on more traditional news, as you've been covering, on the Magnificent Seven, on earnings. Earnings are probably going to be up at least 12% during the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. And that's the analyst's current expectations, which usually tends to be too low. You don't have to be, Brian, an oil or energy expert to suggest that the change in the dynamic around the Strait of Hormuz is significant enough that it almost feels to me as though people are a little complacent about that changing dynamic and assume that things are going to go back

to normal in the face of what I think the experts would say is not necessarily the case. And if it is, it's certainly not anytime soon. I suppose it depends what normal is. I mean, we were in an environment. We were at $55 a barrel in the United States coming into this. So if you look out the forward curve, there's not an expectation of going to be. going back to $55, there's an expectation that oil prices will be meaningfully lower, even in July than they are right now, call it, you know, $75, $80 a barrel.

And it's in an environment where the U.S. and most of the world is far less energy intensive from an economic perspective. So I don't think we want to say that, you know, things go back to $55 in the world. You and I used to talk about this pristine Goldilocks environment. It's not the same as what it was in January, but it's likely if we get through this environment, which all three of us, including Mike Wilson, suggest we will. You'll have some slowdown in economic activity as a result of higher gas prices, but you're unlikely to lead to a meaningful deterioration in economic activity.

I also feel like, you know, people are believing now that we, the U.S. is the best house, undoubtedly now in a much more unsettled world. Like the international trade beat the U.S. trade last year, and there were early indications that we may get a repeat of that. Now I hear people telling me I don't think so anymore because of some of the reasons that Brian suggested. We are energy independent. Our economy is still good.

Our Fed is likely to cut rates still ahead. and the stimulative nature of policy out of the Trump administration is still a wind at your back. Yeah, I think a lot will, in fact, depend on obviously what happens in the Persian Gulf. A lot will depend on where the price of oil goes. If the price of oil does settle down around $80 a barrel, I think the world's going to get used to it, adjust to it. And some of the big opportunities in this geopolitical sell-off have actually been an overseas market. its emerging markets are coming back. India's coming back.

I mean, they may be short-term trades, but I think the argument for the rest of the world is cheaper. I think the argument for the rest of the world is their stock markets are not necessarily coinciding with their economies. Their stock markets have done extremely well because their earnings have done very well. I think companies around the world are being better managed, and I think part of it is because of the technologies they have available to increase their profit margins. Do you believe in the Mike Wilson broadening story that he are to?

I do, and we'll need to get through this period, right? And so, you know, I've been looking at it over a couple of different horizons. Is the cycle ending, no, we haven't seen spreads wide and we haven't seen inflation expectations rise enough to bring the Fed forward? So cycle continues. Unfortunately, if you look at risk assessment, it suggests a little bit of a slowdown in activity. But we can get right back on that path again. You can get leading indicators have remained largely resistant. You can get right back into what feels like a more expansionary environment, and you could bring the Fed back into play as a result of it. But you need oil to go down, don't you, to have that?

We can't have weekly questions about a possible growth slowdown related to the movement. No, you cannot have that. You would have to see greater clarity that we're moving through this period. We can't be at a sustained period of $100 a barrel oil and expect to see a global expansion. And what you would need to see is what the market is hoping for right now is improvements in the geopolitical backdrop that enable oil prices to come down that allow the Fed to ease that starts to reaccelerate activity again. That's what will give you the broadening trade. But the doubts, at least in the current environment, that's why money's been going back into the mega caps. Absolutely, absolutely.

Yeah, I think we're back to fundamentals, back to focusing on earnings. And these companies have been magnificent in terms of producing earnings. I actually recommended underweighting them back on December 7th. And then a couple of weeks ago, I said, let's just go back in market waiting because they got cheap real quick. You know, went from over 31 forward PE to something like 22, just in a heartbeat. But you're still at your market waiting them. You don't want to go back overweight to this group? I believe in the diversification trade, not just in the U.S., but globally.

I mean, I'm saying that mid-cap, small and mid-cap companies' earnings are picking up. The profit margins are picking up. I'm seeing that overseas as well. Are we going to have a better earning season? I mean, expectations are obviously high and they have been creeping. I think we'll beat. Well, I think we're expected to beat by a lot. I'm even thinking now that the CEOs who are going to get a bit of a pass on their guidance

and their commentary because who could fault them for feeling it's too foggy to make any large predictions, excuse me, may feel a little more confident about where things are heading if they believe we have a durable environment in the Middle East. Yeah, I think they will feel a little bit better. Although, I mean, look, this isn't the end of the story. We'll go back and forth on this. There will be multiple headlines on this. We don't want to get whipsod by all of it.

Look at what the market is telling us. I mean, for all that we've been through, the S&P 500 is basically flat since it started. Credit spreads have barely moved since it started. And, you know, even to make a point that Ed had brought up at the start of this with the 25% downturn with Russia and Ukraine, inflation was 7% already by the time Russia went into Ukraine. We're in an environment. And going up to 9.5. So right now we're in an environment where five-year break-evens, 265.

And leading indicators are still strong. So I think it'll be a reasonably good earnings season. I think you'll provide positive guidance. This isn't the end of the story, but I do think we'll find our way through it. I think it'll be all about earnings because I don't think the Fed's going to be relevant. I think it's going to be in the background, actually, background noise. I don't think they're going to do anything this year. I think we are going to have...

Nothing at all? Nothing at all. For the whole year? Well, inflation is going to pick up for the next several months. The economy, I agree with Brian, is going to... I've been arguing the economy is remarkably resilient. Look at all the shocks that it's withstood. So, yeah, there's no reason for them to lower rates.

There's no reason for them to raise rates. They can just stay here, and that's kind of the posture that they expressed in the last minutes. Okay. We'll talk to you guys again soon. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for being here. Appreciate it.

To Christina Parts of Nvelos now for a look at the biggest names. moving into the close today. What do you see? Well, let's start with Disney shares. They're slightly higher today, as the entertainment giant really plans to lay off as many as 1,000 employees. The source told CNBC that the cuts come just after, well, that they're going to be laying off people, but these cuts come just after former parks head Josh DeMaro took over as CEO. Meantime, Brown Foreman is seeing a takeover interest again today, this time from Sazerak, the owner of brands like Southern Comfort and Wheatley Vodka, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The Jack Daniels owner has already received interest. from French spirits maker Pernault Ricard shares up today over 14% as a bidding war could be brewing. And just how fast can Marvell's optical chip segment grow? Light speed, according to Barclays. They forecast 90% growth for the segment over just the next couple of years, upgrading the stock to overweight and raising the price target to $150. That's why shares are almost 5% higher. Okay.

Au revoir. See later. Merci, Mon-Ane. I need it like that. Yes. All right, we're just getting started. Up next, your big bank setup. Top analyst Mike Mayo is waiting in the wings.

He'll tell us what he expects from those earnings next week when he joins me at post nine next. All right, welcome back. Bank earnings get going next week, just as the group has traded much better over the past month. For more on what to expect, let's welcome in Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities. Welcome back. So the group is one of the worst performing groups year to date. They've looked better lately. What does that mean for what happens next week?

Well, the group well outperformed last year, and it's getting close to approaching market returns. But I think with bank earnings... Close to approaching market returns. I mean, the markets return nothing this year. What do you mean? Okay, well, banks are... Is that like that's a highlight? That doesn't sound like a highlight in my game.

Well, our bank stock playbook was working until it didn't. And the bank stock playbook is multi-year EPS inflection from... Last year was the first up year in four years. We see three years ahead of strong earnings growth. This is once in a generation deregulation, and those two levers can propel bank stocks a lot higher. And if this ceasefire holds, I think bank stocks could go to all-time highs

or at least post-crisis highs for banks like Citigroup. What about the direction of rates and the Fed? How are the bank stocks going to trade around that? Well, I think the big picture here is capital markets are strong. That's going to be a good lever. You're going to see Monday, Goldman Sachs, Tuesday, Citigroup and JPMorgan. I think capital markets will be talking about a lot those few days. Spread revenues, traditional lending revenues are also doing pretty well for the banks

since you have a double-barreled revenue growth, and then more of those dollars fall to the bottom line due to better efficiency. So the main line items are good. Earnings are going to be good. I think large bank earnings should be up 15 to 20 percent, every year. The issue, Scott, is the outlook. It's the guidance. It's the tail risk related to oil and inflation and the conflict and all the other things going around. Well, because hasn't that hurt the dealmaking and expected M&A that was, I think, pretty well thought of coming into the year? And now this has derailed that a bit, hasn't it? Not as much as you'd expect. I mean, I think

mergers, you'll see Goldman Sachs Monday. You'll see mergers being strong and you have a multiplier effect from that. Now, in terms of the guidance, that will be interesting to watch. How confident are they in monetizing the backlogs? On the other hand, you have volumes and volatility. That's helping trading flows, repositioning, and your trading should be quite strong at the largest banks. I would say the best banks will be the ones that report early, that have more capital markets, and that are the biggest. Why, you seem to remain somewhat neutral, dare I say, a little cautious on Morgan Stanley relative to the group because everything else on your list is overweight, and that's not. Why?

Morgan Stanley, look, a rising tide lives all ships, and Ted Pick has done a better job than I had expected. The valuation has moved up relative to some of the other stocks that I've covered for the last two years. So it's more relative valuation. I think Morgan Stanley will also have a good quarter. I will be watching their organic growth and net new assets. They have this wealth machine that does a great job. I just wonder if this quarter might not be as strong as other quarters. I mean, but wasn't the whole, you know, leaning more heavily into the wealth business that they did viewed as a crown jewel relative to some of the others? Why don't they get the credit from people like you for that who even cite that as a point of strength, but it's not reflected in your rating and target?

Well, I was on your show last decade. It was my number one pick at $13 a share. No, but this is this decade, man. I mean, seriously, why not now? Look, I think our price targets above where the stock's trading right now. They should do well. But I just favor Goldman a bit more because Goldman has a bigger lead in mergers. They have a multiplier effect.

I think their trading should be very strong. And they're on a relative valuation, Goldman's cheaper. So for me, it's more about Goldman over Morgan Stanley. Is City still your favorite, if I recall, or no? Yeah, my top three picks are Citigroup, City Group, and Citigroup. Why does that remain the case still? Oh, man, you're going from value destruction to value creation starting this year, and they're on an upward ramp to 14% returns by the end of the decade from 8% last year.

Jane Frazier has simplified this company like no other CEO has done in the last half century. They've gone from this global matrix mishmash structure for the last 50 years to five lines of business. Each one has a CEO who's in charge of improving their returns. They have an investor day in May when I think they're going to show some good things. And by the way, that discussion about doing an acquisition, I'm surprised you didn't ask me about that because that's been weighing on the stock a little bit. If Jane Fraser on Tuesday says that she wants to do an acquisition at Citigroup, by the way, that would be 25 years after still cleaning up the messes from their old deals,

make sure you reserve spot on your show Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. I'll go on every day because that would be horrific. I don't think they'll do that, though. I think Jane Frazier... Nor will we, but anyway, you keep going. No, but I think Jane Frazier is myopically focused on what they can control, exiting 14 countries in consumer, streamlining, capital freeing that up, deconsolidating the Mexican Bank and improving their returns organically. It's all playing out the way better than I would thought.

All right. Speaking of messes, private credit. Now, there's a difference between thinking that it's not going to be systemic, which is in your notes, and getting worse and having a negative impact on the banks. How do you see that shaken out? So, my view is that, for the most part, private credit issues are going to remain private credit issues. As it relates to the banks, you don't have the retail funding, you know, funding loans. I will say in terms of private credit at $1.8 trillion in size, it's never been tested through a downturn. And so I think it's something to monitor, but you don't see like the global financial crisis-type leverage. You don't see the huge interconnectivity.

You don't have a new product. This is commercial lending. You have some panic around redemptions, but I don't see this impacting the banks in any meaningful way. So I think that's an opportunity for banks to take back some of the market share, that private credit took away from the bank since the global financial prices. All right. Thanks for being here. Don't clear your schedule for next week. We may give you a call depending on these results. But we'll see again soon. Sounds good. That's Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Security. Still ahead. The 26 Masters Tournament teeing off today. Our own Dom Chu is live in

Augusta, Georgia with more. Hey, Dom. All right, the weather's perfect, and it's going to be like this. The forecast it for it to be perfect for the next four days. We've got a packed leaderboard, and this is arguably the most important week of the golf season. I'll be back after the break with more on what to expect this weekend at the Masters. Welcome back, round one of the Masters tournament underway. Our Dominic Chu joins us now from Augusta, Georgia. Nice assignment, Domino. It's good work if you can get it, right?

So I am here, of course, Scott. And as I pointed out before, the weather here is gorgeous right now. It's 70 degrees. It gets to about 45 to 50 overnight. And it's going to get progressively warmer throughout the course of the week. By Saturday and Sunday, the forecast is for temperatures pushing close to 90 degrees and a less than 10% chance of rain from now through the balance of the tournament. Now, what that does mean is that this is going to be a course that runs extremely hard and fast,

so these players might have a little bit of trouble navigating some of the conditions. But this is also going to be a real, real important week for the game overall, because this is arguably the most important week for the golf year. And the reason why is because there will be more eyeballs on Augusta National Golf Club and the Masters Tournament this week than just about any single golf event throughout the course of the rest of the year. This is the first major of the season and not only the first major, the most watched. So this is going to set the bar for what's going to be the entire golf season for both the men

and the women. Now, as it turns to what's happening out here right now, there's been a big, big boost in the profile of this event, not just because of the stature of the golf being played, but because of a lot of the business that's being conducted here right now, a lot of meetings happening. And by the way, meetings that are happening without the use of cell phones, because smartphones and transmitting devices are not allowed on the grounds for use at Augusta National. So you're trying to figure all of this stuff out in a massive tournament. But Scott, like you said, it's a great assignment. I'm going to see what kind of good golf I can see for the balance of the week. I'll send things back over the day. All right, you enjoy yourself, Dom.

That's Dom Choo, down in Augusta, Georgia. There are, as Dom said, more places than ever to watch the Masters tournament as well. Our Alex Sherman has that side of the story from here at Post 9. What did you find? First of all, that Golf Channel, Mike Flag, from Dom. Look at the synergy, the Versant Synergy that you see here on CNBC. Yeah, Dom mentioned it, that this tournament is going to be the most watch of all golf tournaments. There is a new media entrant into this picture, and that is Amazon, Amazon Prime Video,

the first time ever that Amazon has Masters rights. They just finished up their first block of time from 1 to 3 p.m., it's past 3, which is why you're watching us now, of course, which was the sort of part 1, round 1 for Amazon. They'll have exclusive coverage again tomorrow from 1 to 3 p.m. This is only the fourth media partner in the history of the Masters. Of course, the Masters probably the most traditional, maybe of any sports. event in the country. I don't even think maybe. Right, maybe not maybe, exactly. And they, of course, pride themselves on this tradition. They have odd media rights agreements that really stand out, too.

They've had an agreement with CBS since 1956. That is the longest partnership, 70th anniversary of that CBS partnership. And there was no money exchanged in that partnership. It's sort of like a handshake deal that they do every year. ESPN has been a longtime carrier of the Masters, and now Amazon is this sort of third partner. In addition to having rights for the first two days for two hours, Amazon also has a unique thing where they will be producing and broadcasting Amen Corner, the 11th, 12th, and 13th holes with a lot of different bells and whistles. That will carry on for all four days.

So you can tune into Amazon Prime Video if you have Amazon, and you can check that out. And, of course, you can watch the Masters as you do every year on CBS on rounds three and four. Yeah, glad the weather's going to. be good. Before I let you go, what's your take on this DOJ investigation that the Wall Street Journal was reporting on today into the National Football League? Yeah, really, again, sort of a media media story here. I think in many ways driven by a nervousness, particularly from Fox, I think, that they may lose NFL games or at least have to pay a lot more money for them. So you've

seen Fox make some comments in an FCC filing about this idea that NFL games should be free. and I think that in many ways is sort of leading the charge from the FCC and now the DOJ to look into this idea of is the NFL spreading its wings too far? Are they making consumers pay for too many different streaming services to get their games? The NFL came out with a statement in response to that saying the NFL's media distribution model is the most fan and broadcast friendly in the entire sports and entertainment industry with over 87% of our games on free broadcast television, including 100% of games in the Marvel of the competing teams. The NFL has for decades put our fans front and center in how we distribute our content.

So the NFL is saying, look, as opposed to other sports where you have to pay for a regional sports network, say, you don't have to do that in the NFL. You can get most of your local games on broadcast TV already. So look, we are consumer-friendly to begin with. You don't have to worry about this. It's something to monitor, though. Will we see the NFL be forced into a direction where they, in fact, re-up with all the broadcast? companies because they don't want to face any political heat. All right, Alex, good to have you here. Thank you. Alex Sherman, be sure to check out the CBC Sport Newsletter and the videocast with this week's guest.

Skiing superstar Lindsay Vaughn. Don't miss that. Up next, we track the biggest movers into the close. Christina Parts of Nevelos is standing by with that. Hi. Hi. Hi, AI agents are rattling software stocks yet again. And a popular diet brand is tanking after an ugly earnings miss.

I'll be the details when we get back. Just about 10 from the bell. Back to Christina now for the stocks that she's watching. Tell us what you see, please. Software stocks. We've got to talk about them because they're continuing to fall today after Claude announced a platform for deploying AI agents. The IGV you can see on your screen top right down 4%, more than 4%, while names like Autodesk and Palantir among the worst performers on the S&P 500. Pallenteer down over 7%. GitLab, another name that's falling today on AI fears. Guggenheim downgraded the stock to neutral analysts over there say that as AI models just become. better at coding. Companies are just less likely to spend more on the software development platform.

And that's why I shares are down 8%. And last but not least, simply good foods. The owner of Atkins' low-carb diet meals is plummeting roughly almost 20% today after guidance missed expectations. The company's CEO says they're, quote, not satisfied with the current performance, but they believe their diet food addresses GLP1 users. Those are the diet drugs and they're changing food habits. Scott? Well, okay. Christina, thank you. Christina Portsnevallos coming up next. Nevin, Sarah Malick, standing by the three big market risk that she says she's watching right now. She'll tell you what they are in the market zone next. We're now in the closing bell market zone. Mike Santoli and Newveen, Sarah Malik, here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day.

Plus Rick Santelli watching today's options activity live from the Cibo Global Markets in Chicago. Michael, I will begin with you. We had a nice turn midday. we've kept it. Yeah. The market, Scott, kind of making a bid that maybe normalcy is something like normalcy can be tried on for at least a day. I say that because, you know, you're riding some big moves and some of the mega-cap favorites to the S&P 500's gain. It's not an overwhelmingly positive breath day. Yesterday was much better. But you are seeing a lot of that kind of pro-cyclical rotation that the market was really in the mode of benefiting from in the first couple of months of this year, so that means percent and a half gains from banks and industrials.

We're also on pace for the volatility index. You're showing it now to close below 20 for the first time since the day before the Iran conflict started. So who knows if the market is, you know, going to be validated for this bid to say that maybe we can, you know, kind of move on to other issues besides oil and the conflict. But for a day, it's working here. And we did clear another hurdle here, getting above 6,800, although not decisively just yet. Yeah, what do you got coming up in about five minutes time? Yeah, going to come out, not just the fundamental and technical, tactical sides of this, but also going to prepare for these mega IPOs.

What does it mean for the private markets and can the public markets absorb them, assuming we're going to get those big ones? Yeah, we will see. All right, we'll see in a little bit in overtime. Michael, thank you. All right, Rick, let's go to the CBO now. Tell us what you see there. Yeah, I'll tell you what.

Let's stick with the optimistic side of the equation. Let's look at two calls. Let's look at Amazon. Let's do the 235 calls. Expiration is 17th of April. Strike price, 235. What's the cost? About $3.80. For 100 chairs, of course, that's $3,380. And break-even is $2.38. Let's do two. How about meta? Let's stick with the bullish stocks today. 6.45 strike. Let's keep the same expiration. April 17. $6.50. Multiply that by 100 is your actual dollar loss and your break, even $6.51.50. Both those are good plays. If you're bullish, I think I am. Judge, back to you. Great stuff, Rick. Thank you very much. That's Rick Santelli. All right,

Sarah, we're putting together a couple nice days here, obviously. Are you a believer that this is the start now of a reset, and we're going to continue to move higher? Well, the ceasefire has caused the tail risk of a heated escalation to decline, and that's why investors are taking risk up. But we did see seven weeks of net selling during this war, and now we've seen seven days of straight gains for the S&P 500. So it is going to be harder from here because a lot of optimism is priced in. We're so worried about three things, and that's the risk of stagnation, the impact that AI is having across sectors, and of course, what is the Fed going to do in terms of rate cuts or rate hikes? Does that mean you skew more cautious on the market overall? It sounds as though.

I think you need to be more balanced. So for example, within technology, avoid software stocks, but look at companies like Netflix, which have more of a moat and are protected against AI. Now, why is that because we think AI is going to impact short-form content more than Netflix. Netflix still has a large total addressable market, the ability to raise prices. People spend two hours on average per day on Netflix, and that costs the consumer about 25 cents, which is a nice investment for consumers during a period of high inflation. And then we'd balance that with infrastructure-related companies, which are data center plays,

which are continuing to grow like utilities and reed stocks like East Group and utilities like nice source and energy. What about the mega-caps? I think mega-caps you have to be selective. They did lag quite a bit during this, so I'm not surprised to see them have a nice return. Some mega-caps, I think, are more protected in this kind of environment like Amazon, and we mentioned Netflix, which is outside of the MegaCap 7. But you need to be a little bit more selective because once we...

get this catch-up trade. What we're going to be looking for next is earnings. Good news is Q1 earnings season does look strong with about double-digit earnings worth expected. So that will be what carries us from here. But we need to watch the straight of Hormose and also whether this ceasefire can hold. Otherwise, this seven days of gains is not going to hold. Do you need oil to still come down markedly, along with yields for that matter, for you to get more bullish? We would like to see oil remain. You know, it is already there, well under $120. I think oil gets above 120 and stays there consistently. That's where you're going to get into this period of stagnation.

I think oil winding down will help yield. So all of that is a nice tailwind for the markets, including Q1 earnings. But what we are concerned about is that after seven days of net buying for the markets, I think we're going to have a bit of a pause here. Doesn't it? It hurts the broadening story if oil remains elevated. It doesn't have to go to 120 to be a problem there. I mean, even around 100 for a good while, doesn't it hurt that idea?

I think it does hurt the broadening story. We have not been huge bulls on everything but technology. I think technology, select technology, still has a lot of upside from here. So I don't think it's about the 493 versus the 7. The Mac 7, selective tech can continue to do well in areas. And then outside of the technology sector, we like areas like infrastructure and those companies which have more sector tailwinds like infrastructure with manufacturing coming closer to home and the build out of data centers. How about earnings season about to kick off? You have high

expectations like most others do as well. I'm going to start next week with the banks. Yeah, well, the market does certainly have high expectations about mid-teens earnings growth for the first quarter. You'll be interesting to see if companies can do that. Banks had been pretty weak during this period of the war. What will be watching for with banks is their capital markets revenues given the volatility because of the war. Of course, watching their credit quality, given the issues that we've heard about within private credit and then also their net interest income. You know, banks were pretty weak, but they've had a nice rebound just like everything else has over the past week. Sarah, we'll see you soon. Be well. Sarah Malick and Newveen. Bell's going

to ring. Going to put together a pretty decent day. Certainly after that massive day in the market, we had just one day ago. Some questions about follow-through. Midday, started to change the story a little bit. We're going. We're going to be green across the board as it fell 68.