Closing Bell - Closing Bell: More Room to Run? 9/23/25

Episode Date: September 23, 2025

Does this record rally have any more room to run? We discuss with Truist Wealth’s Keith Lerner and Empower Investments’ Marta Norton. Plus,  Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney says he sees 20% upside ahead for Netflix. He explains why. And, Former Dallas Fed President Rich Fisher reacts to Chair Powell’s speech today.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Closing Bell. I'm Carl Keatonian for Scott Wapner. This maker break hour begins with this retreat from some record high. Scott, stocks are pulling back from all-time records as tech does take a breather today. Your scorecard was 60 minutes to go in the trading session, got the NASDAQ down a full percent. S&P's not that far behind, got the VIX back above 17. Energy, the best performing sector today. Financials, tech, and consumer discretionary are in the red. We did hear from the Fed share today earlier this afternoon. He described interest rates as modestly restrictive, said stocks, appear, quote, fairly highly valued, which does take us to our talk of the tape. Does this record rally have more room to run or not? Let's ask Truist Wealth, CIO, Keith Lerner, and Empower chief investment strategist, Martin Norton, who joins us here at Post 9. Good to see both of you. Thanks for coming in. Yes, my pleasure. What do you make of, I guess, tech lagging, a little more volatility, this comment from the Fed chair, you don't get that every day about valuations and equities? Right. And, you know, I think it really is a sign of how extreme valuations are. We all know that valuations aren't a timing indicator.

Markets can grind on for quite some time. But what we do see in the data is when valuations get to extremes, whether that is extremely cheap or extremely expensive. That's when they become more predictive of prospective three-year returns. And so I think that's something we're all circling around. Your general take vis-a-vis the Fed is that the market tends to always get its hopes up on the pace of rate cuts. And this one might not be as doveish as some of the market thinks.

Is that right? Well, it certainly has been the case over the past several years that the market has tried to anticipate, tried to push cuts, and the Fed has held back. And I think we're seeing a little bit of that dichotomy today. We're seeing the market price and rates that would effectively take rates below 3% by roughly this time next year, whereas the Fed is being a little bit more, you know, or less stovish in that regard. Right. Keith, that's definitely been. I mean, we've gotten a mix of Fed views over the past, say, 48 hours. but Hammock yesterday, Bostick, I mean, there's some hawks out there, and they are clearing that field a little bit this week.

Yeah, well, first, good to be with you. I mean, what we're seeing is that for the Fed is complicated, right, with the inflation backdrop, retail sales, it was a little bit stronger, and they have scar tissue from what's happened, you know, a few years ago with inflation. But, you know, our big picture as we look at the work call is when the Fed has cut rates historically, you know, near all-time highs, and you look forward a year as a starting point, the markets have been up about 90% of the time. What's important is that we don't go into recession,

that the economy continues to move forward. And then I would also say, though, that, you know, interest rates are important, but they're not the only thing that matter. You know, look at this market this year. We're up double digits, and the Fed only cuts just recently. The North Star for this market, the most important drive, especially given those higher valuations, continue to be earnings.

And I think that's what we'll continue to focus on. Our bottom line is we think the bull market deserves the benefit of the doubt. We'll likely get some consolidation after this big run-up. But as you move into the fourth quarter, strength tends to be get strength, and we think we ultimately end up higher. I wonder what you make of September month to date here, Keith, thanks to bespoke.

We're on pace for the best September since 13, up almost 4% for the month. And I wonder, does that sort of signal a would-be chase among real money going into the last quarter of the year? Well, I think the market likes to fool the masses, right? I think, you know, if you look at back of the seasonals, August and September, typically weaker, we haven't seen that. And even think about tech and communication services this month, up six and seven percent. So I think what that likely leads to is more of a consolidation as we move into October, because we didn't really get it before.

And we have higher expectations as we move into the fourth quarter. So I don't know if there will be an immediate chase call because we do have higher expectations, we have moved the long way. But I think as we kind of move through the next quarter, and as market starts focusing on 2026, A little bit better economic back, drop a little bit more clarity from the one big, beautiful bill, a little bit more clarity, hopefully, on tariffs, and some rate cuts. I think that the market will have additional gains, but we might have to have, you know, a little bit of choppiness before that happens in the fourth quarter. Speaking of choppiness, another great stat today is that S&P index price action has gone the opposite way of breadth.

I think 60% of the sessions so far this month, normally that number is much, much lower. It does sort of tell you about some of the churn that's happening beneath the headline level, right? You know, it's so interesting because when we think about this market, of course technology comes to mind, the Magnificent 7, the A-I-A-list, all of those stocks come to mind. But there has been strength elsewhere, maybe not quite to the same degree as earnings, but we have seen strength from financials, from industrials. So it hasn't been just a growth-only market, and I think that's to the benefit of investors. But it also means that there's fewer opportunities, and from a valuation perspective, at least out there in the market. And I do want to get you guys on both health care and small caps and some of these less loved sectors of the market. But in the brief moment we have, stick with us, Keith and Marta. InVIDIA, as we know, has been pulling back from some record highs after that big announcement yesterday that it plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI to support these new data centers.

Let's get to McKenzie Segalos who caught up with OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer earlier today. Hey, Mac. Hey, Carl. So this is what that $300 billion deal between Oracle and Open AI looks like it is a massive data center in West Texas, where NVIDIA's chips are already powering Chats CBT, and 4,000 Oracle workers are racing to finish construction behind me. I spoke exclusively with OpenAI CFO, Sarah Fryer, who pushed back on concerns that these projects are slipping behind schedule. She said no one in history has built data centers this fast, adding that Open AI is now rebranding all of its infrastructure under one name, Stargate.

What I think we should all be focused on today is the fact that there's not enough compute and that as the business grows, we will be more than capable of paying for what is in our future. More compute, more revenue. And when pressed on bubble fears with Oracle, Broadcom, and Nvidia, all soaring initially on their respective OpenAI high-ups, Fryer pushed back, telling me that we are still at the very beginning of the AI era, comparing today to the early Netscape years. She also said OpenAI is exploring new debt financing to fuel this massive build-out. Carl? Mac, appreciate that really important story. Keith, I'll turn to you first on this one. Some of the knee-jerk response in the wake of that

announcement was that it's never a good thing when you're financing your customers' purchases of your own goods, but is it more complicated than that? Yeah, well, there's raised an eyebrow. I mean, if something would happen with open AI or chat GPT isn't, you know, the lead, then all of a sudden there's some circular challenges. But all in all, you know, I don't think we're in a bubble. When I look at returns for the technology sector as an example, you know, on a year-over-year basis, we're up around 30% for the technology sector. Don't forget, we had that big move down in April. When you look back over the last, you know, 20, 30 years, where you really have more of a red alert is when you're up over 100%. And then what's also a difference when we look back in the 90s, you know, the earnings momentum for the technology sector is still the strongest in the market.

And that's what's driving the thing. So all in all, we still think that AI and technology is a dominant theme. Jensen Wong mentioned that by the end of the decade, maybe we will have, you know, three or four hundred, I'm sorry, three or four trillion dollars in CAPX versus 500 to 600 billion today. So we think there's for it to go, but it's not going to be without, you know, in a straight line call. But we think the underlying earnings remains positive. We do have to think about some of these risks. along the way, but we don't think this cycle is over, over yet by any means. Yeah, no, it's hard to imagine anyone trying even to argue that it's over. But a common view, Marta, is that within this long-term trajectory and our path toward this addressable market, that there will be bubbles within it that do inflate.

That's right. That's right. I think one of the things, and Keith Kuhn alludes to this, is this idea that there are fits and starts. So to your point, it's hard to call into a question, the very long-term trajectory of AI. The addressable market seems tremendous. And yet, innovation cycles don't go in a straight line. We know that there will be infrastructure challenges.

We know that there will be these moments of deep-seeked doubt that we'll have to face. And I think when we think about those moments, I think those are great moments to look for opportunities to buy in. So that's something that I think investors should keep in mind, looking for the right opportunity. So is that where taking a second look at healthcare or small-caps comes in, where you have to rein in your expectations on the AI trade, for example? Well, when it comes to health care and small-caps, there's no question. that they don't have the same glorious story that the tech names have. But I think what I like about those areas is that their valuations, if you're looking on either a relative

or an absolute basis, are pretty attractive. And so it gives you a nice margin of safety to deal with some of the very real policy concerns, tariff concerns, growth concerns that some of those companies face. So I think you can certainly have your exposure to the AI names, but I don't think you should avoid valuation opportunities when they're out there. Keith, you go along with that. And I guess I would add to it your view that gold is a,

pretty nice leavener of the whole loaf of bread here at the moment, even at 3,800? Yeah, on both points. I'll hit on small caps. I mean, we were more negative earlier this year in August. We upgraded our view more to our neutral view. And the way I think about that call is small caps are on leadership, but they are all participating. And we have a couple of things. They're extremely cheap on a relative basis.

They underperform. Sentiment has been negative. But the main thing that we have seen that's changed is earnings are starting to move forward. So if you get a little bit of rotation out of like an invidia, you know, a 1% move out of that is about $40 billion. That's bigger than three times bigger than any small cap company. So if you just get a little bit of money that rotates into small caps, you could have a run. So we want to participate. And I think the underlying trends with the economy and earnings are somewhat better.

And then going to gold, we've been bullish on gold all year long. We're still positive. Yes, just like tech, it's kind of stretched on a short-term basis. But these things move into like, you know, multi-year cycles. And when we look back over the last 15 years, gold is still really underperforming the overall market. And there's some tailwinds as far as central bank buying, maybe a little bit lower interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the technical trends are still favorable. So we want to stick with that as a portfolio diversifier, you know, within a balanced portfolio. Yeah, still having its best year since the late 70s and a multiple of the S&P's returns so far this year.

Guys, you mentioned politics, and the president is indeed canceling a meeting with top Democrats as this government shut down looms. Our Emily Wilkins is in D.C. with details on that. Afternoon, Emily. The afternoon, Carl. Yeah, that shutdown threat is ratcheting up. Trump and top Democratic leaders. They were set to meet on Thursday to try to discuss a way to avoid this looming government shutdown that would begin on October 1st. But Trump reneged on that meeting today.

He posted on truth social saying that after reviewing the details of what he called the unsirious and ridiculous demands being made by the minority radical left Democrats in return for their votes to keep our thriving country. open, I have decided that no meeting with their congressional leaders could possibly be productive. Now, as Trump alludes there, Republicans are going to need at least seven Senate Democrats to continue current government funding for several weeks while they continue to hash out a more detailed plan to cover the 2026 fiscal year. Schumer responded to Trump saying in a statement that Trump is running away from the negotiating table before he even gets there. Hukes Schumer went on to say that while Americans are facing rising costs and a Republican health care crisis,

Trump would rather throw a tantrum than do his job. Now, senators are going to be back in D.C. on September 29th, and Republicans plan to try again for a vote for a Republican-backed measure to continue current government funding until November 21st. And at this point, what Schumer is saying, that unless there's some component in there about health care, potentially extending those Affordable Care Act tax credits, that there aren't. going to be enough Democrats to vote to pass that. Carl? Emily, appreciate that. Emily Wilkins in DC. I don't know if you want to comment on sort of the trading around shutdowns. It's generally been a decent time to buy, given how they don't

last forever. But also at the UN today, there was a sense that the president's speech pointed to a bit more isolationism with the U.S. vis-a-vis, certainly Europe. They've already pushed back on some of the Kenview accusations that the president made yesterday. Is that material to trades right now? Well, here's what I will say. I mean, to your point on shutdowns, I don't think this is something that can really unhinge the equity market. I think to his point, we're going to be focused on earnings. I think the bond market is going to be focused on rates. But when we think about geopolitical risk more broadly or de-globalization trends more broadly, it's hard not to imagine that that isn't something that is at least a bit of a headwind. We know that global trade meant much bigger profit margins as we saw them expand over the first decade of this century. And so as we start to roll that back, as we start to think about isolationism, that does potentially change the calculus. But whether that's a bigger factor than AI, you know, I think that's a toss-up. We're in a multivariable world.

It does, Keith, get us to something else the Fed Chair said this afternoon, is that that he expects tariff to be, again, a one-time price increase, but one that does play out over several quarters, and it's going to be the market's mission to sort of look through that along with the Fed. Isn't that going to be a – there's some level of treacherousness there, isn't there? Yeah, well, I mean, as we kind of discussed earlier, it's a complicated picture for the Fed. I think there's still questions about, you know, who's eating the cost as far as the, you know, between consumers and businesses. But I would also say, you know, when we look at the tariff rate itself, we're looking at, you know, the actual effective rate about 9% because there's a lot of exemptions that's happening also.

And then the other thing that I think we should not overlook is, you know, the, if we look at the tax bill, there's a lot of benefits that's actually. offsetting some of the terrorists as well. So it matters. It makes the job more complicated. Some industries are hit more than others. But also, we've seen our businesses adjust repeatedly the last several years and also the last quarter. So, I mean, it's something that we're going to have to continue to monitor, but I don't think it's by itself something that derail is the overall market, because at least we're getting a little bit more clarity on the terrorist side. And more importantly, we're going to get some more benefits from that tax bill that's offsetting some of these taxes.

You definitely needed the bill to offset some of the impact of tariffs. Finally, the Fed Chair also said that some of the hiring slowdown that we've witnessed might be part of the mitigation strategy. So maybe the corporates don't pass on all of those cost inputs, but it might result in some slower hiring, which, again, is its own ball of wax. That's right. Yeah, I think the whole hiring situation, there are so many factors that at play. There's certainly still the normalization from the furious pace of hiring that we saw in the post-COV.

period. And then there's this question of the uncertainty that companies face as they juggle the different costs that they have and how they're going to manage it. So I think it's going to be hard to detail what exactly is the push factor in all of those different causes. It may be just a combination of the mix. Right. You know, the strangest thing, Keith, that I saw today was probably a desk note that argued that the market looks healthy, expect a strong Q4, but that some of the risk factors might be a surge in hiring. meaning better payrolls, more resilient spending, something that would throw the market off balance on obviously these key hopes for continued rate cuts.

No, it's an interesting dichotomy because in some ways, you know, lower wages, that's the biggest cost for a lot of businesses. So that could have profit margins on the other side, you know, if someone's not getting a job, they're not spending. So there's this, you know, tug-a-war on both side. You know, a big picture, because we looked at years like this year where we've seen at least 25 new highs, into the fourth quarter. And more often in that fourth quarter, you actually see strength about 90% of the time. So, you know, if the economy came in hotter than expected, then I think what would happen is you'd have this recalibration. Rates would likely move higher and a short-term reaction. But I would say all in all, an economy growing and moving forward, I would take over

an economy that continues the weekend that needs more and more Fed support. Guys, good discussion on an interesting day or sort of a mirror what we've seen in the past few sessions. Marta and Keith, thanks, guys. Good to see you both. We are getting some news out of Washington this afternoon. Let's get to Amon Javers with that. Hey, Amen. Carl, we've got a new post on social media from President Trump, and it's a striking change rhetorically from the president on Vladimir Zelensky and Ukraine and that country's prospects in its war with Russia.

Take a look what the president posted just a short time ago. He's saying, after getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine, Russia, military, and economic situation, and after seeing the economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe, and in particular, NATO, the original borders from which this war started is very much an option. The president here going on to say Ukraine would be able to take back their country in its original form, and who knows, maybe even go further than that. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble, and this is time for Ukraine to act. He says the United States will continue to supply weapons to NATO and for NATO to do what they want with them, Carl.

So this comes after the president met in that bilateral meeting with Vladimir Zelensky earlier today at the United Nations General Assembly. And it's a striking change in position for this president who has said previously throughout the year that he wants Ukraine to make strategic concessions to the Russians to give up, certain amount of land, that they had to face military reality. Now the president's starting to shift, particularly focusing on the Russian economy. He has said in the past that he believes that the price of oil, if it goes below a certain level, which he hasn't specified, he thinks the Russian economy and the Russian war machine will break. And now he seems to suggest that he sees that moment just over the horizon here. So perhaps a diplomatic breakthrough for Ukraine here at the United nations in dealing with the president guys yeah after earlier this afternoon amen when he said

that nato countries should shoot down uh russian planes if they enter airspace that's quite a quite an interesting shift after that scolding of both the u.n and nato earlier today at the general assembly amen thanks amon javers this morning let's get over to christina parts of nevlos for a look at the biggest names moving into the close hey christina hi carl let's start with actually palenteer because it's getting uh those shares are getting a pop right now on news that boeing is partnering with the company to accelerate AI adoption across the defense sector, including classified programs. And that's why you're seeing Palantir shares climbing over 2.5 percent or almost 2 and a half percent. In other news, though, Boeing, we're seeing those shares plan up just a bit on a

Bloomberg report that the U.S. and China are in final stages for a deal with the planemaker. U.S. ambassador to China, David Purdue said the agreement is a huge order and very important to both parties, and that's why you're seeing Boeing up over 2%. Last finale, shares of Kenview bouncing back after yesterday's losses. Keep in mind, The Tylenol maker sank about 7% after the Trump administration drew an unproven link between autism and taking Tylenol during pregnancy. You can see Kenvue shares up almost 2%, but down about 18% so far this year. And I said almost done, I've got one more.

Firefly Aerospace, also trending lower after posting its first quarterly report since going public last month. The company's Q2 revenue came in about 15.5 million below the expected 16.8 million. shares of Firefly are down 16% onset for its second worst day ever, Carl. KP, thanks talking a bit. We are just getting started when we come back, playing tech's recent run. Top analyst Mark Mahaney standing by with his top picks for that sector. He'll join us after the break.

We're live from the New York Stock Exchange. You're watching closing bell on CNBC. Media stock's getting a boost today. Look at Peace Guy today, the clear winner leading the S&P right now. But Netflix is missing out on some of that action today. And our next guest says, now is the time to bet on that name. He sees another 20% upside from here. Joining us this afternoon, Mark Mahaney, Evercore, ISS, head of internet research, Mark.

Good to see again. On Netflix, I know you've done some survey work. You've got some stuff to talk about, about sentiment. Does it deserve to have treaded water really since Memorial Day or so? Oh, well, that's a good take on it. I was looking at the stock that's up 36% year-to-date and kind of patting myself on the back. But you're right. The stock has, there was an anticipation in the trade year to date that we were going to have a heck of a strong content slate in the back half the year.

I think that's coming through. And I think there was a little bit of surprise in this drama that everybody's now loved in its most popular movie, I guess, of all time, K-pop demon hunters. But you still have, you still have, Carl, don't forget. You still got stranger things. And it's coming out in three batches. So this is going to keep you busy. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's. And then I think the contents late will just continue to get stronger.

I think the next move in the stock is going to be based on them ramping up advertising revenue. I think they're going to do it. But this is going to be a long slog and then also getting more and more into live events, including sports. And I think we're going to see that. I think Netflix is just going to become more crucial, more essential to households around the world of the next two to three years. It's a really good asset. You want to be long. This is not an aggressive entry point, but if you don't own any,

you should buy some, I think, and look for those big pullbacks to step in and take big positions. I like Netflix as a core franchise. I know you've looked at satisfaction, at least in terms of U.S. fundamental trends. But you get to get some pricing action today on Disney Plus, which was reported by The Verge. Would you expect churn to pick up overall among the streamers right now? I don't see any particular reason why it does. Look, you're going to get these shootups and churn when you have pricing costs. And all these companies are going to be taking price up over time because they offer you really compelling value propositions. I mean, if you just step back, you know, you're doing eight bucks a month for Netflix on the cheapest version of the offering for $19 billion worth of content. You can spend $8 a month to get that. I mean, the value proposition is still truly compelling. I think they'll also accordion their prices that the high end will take up more and more. They'll take up pricing consistently over time. They've been able to do it in the past.

As long as they have that catch-all, you know, that safety net of that a low-priced offering, I think they can do that. I think that was the really important pivot by the company two or three years ago. It's been phenomenally successful. I expect with that, you know, with those price increases, you'll get a little spikes and churn, but I think long-term, they'll still stick there because the best value proposition for your money, for your entertainment dollars, isn't streaming, whether that's Disney or Netflix, and you'll probably buy a couple of these services.

I think these companies have staying power, and they have pricing power. While I have you, Mark, I want to get you on some of your other favorites in the space, including any hyperscalers. I know you've done some work looking at not ROI, but ROAI, meaning the return on AI investment by a lot of the giants. And you argue that it is accretive. Well, look, there's this great debate in the market. There was this MIT study that came out a month ago that said 95% of corporations were probably wasting their money on AI. I don't know if that's true or not. I look at the hyperscalers.

I look at four companies that have leaned in more heavily than anybody else into AI spend. And you know how it's paid off? They've gotten accelerating revenue per employee. In other words, if you look at the last couple of years when they've really leaned into this gen AI investment spending, CAPEX has gone up aggressively, their revenue per employee has gone up 30 percent over the last three years. Now, there's a lot of factors that are in there. I know that.

But still, like, I'm sure that some of the innovations they've made, I think about names like meta that have dramatically improved the user experience and the advertiser experience and has caused revenue to jump up in their case almost 70%. Like if you do AI right, if you invest in it aggressively, you can materially improve your monetization. And I'm not talking about costs. I'm talking about improving your productivity, your revenue per employee. You don't normally see that. So I think that's why it's just great case studies for why this is such an exceptional period for these companies to be investing and they're investing successfully. And investors can take advantage of that and stick with these stocks because I think these trends are going to be in place

for several more years. Yeah, it's going to be exciting to see whether or not regular, normal companies can leverage this technology as well as these guys who obviously know it best. Mark, exciting. I appreciate the help on that. And Netflix, talk soon. Mark Mahaney. Thanks, Carl. When we come back, we're tracking some big moves and some key energy names today. We'll tell you what's driving that action. Closing bell, we'll be right back. Welcome back. We're tracking some big moves in the energy space today. Brian Sullivan, Sullivan, one half of the comedy tree, our duo of Sullivan and Manuscalco joins us today watching those moves. Hey, Brian.

Yeah, I think it's son of Sam, Sullivan, Adami, Manascalco. That's a bad reference. Carl, thank you very much. Yeah, let's get serious. Okay, the markets are down, but pretty much every energy-related stock is higher. Don't believe me, we're going to blast through some names here, and then if he wants to, Carl can fire off a question or two at me. Look at these. Okay, so first let's start with natural gas. All the natural gas companies, EQT, expand energy. That's the former Chesapeake, Chenier Energy, Venture Global, they're all up. It's not just natural gas. The refining stocks, we don't talk enough about them, but they have been red hot. Par Pacific, it's more than double this

year. PBF, I think it's about double this year. Delic, up about 70% this year. Valera also higher. By the way, those are just today's gains, par Pacific, of 5%. The services companies also doing well across the energy spectrum today. Halliburton, that is just right now, a 7% gain for Hal. One of the biggest gains we've seen in a while, SLB, formerly known as Schlumberzei, Baker Hughes, and Helmwork and Payne, all rising. And then let's focus not just on individual stocks, but some of the bigger ETFs that are out there. The XLE energy ETF, as you might imagine, Carl, with all those gains up 2%, services, up 3%. And then today, in that UN speech, the president made no, I guess, made no bones about his distaste for certain types of electricity, solar and wind.

And I'm going to say this, not bringing politics into it, but I will say that solar and wind do work. He was saying that they don't work. They do work. They're used all with the world and the United States, but they're not working in the stock market today. Solar energy, Carl, the tan ETF, down about 3%. I was going to ask you, Brian, whether or not you thought some of this price action had to do with the U.S. and the president kind of giving Russia the business and these bilaterals. Also, I'm curious, you know, what you make of the Chevron news,

their Venezuelan exports, that's been a story, given some of the activity we've seen the Navy do off the coast of that country. Yeah, Venezuela, you know, again, their oil is real thick, kind of sludgy. It goes into a lot of diesel fuel. So if you're in the trucking business, Venezuela a little more on the radar. Probably goes overall, Carl, to the inflation story as well, because, you know, obviously truckers, costs trickled down through fuel. It's going to impact what's on the store shelves as well.

Chevron, the biggest U.S. player in Venezuela, kind of this on-again, off-again sort of relationship with Venezuela. You know, we're not doing this. Then we're extending permits. And then we're blowing up alleged drugboats off the coast of Venezuela. It's got to, it's probably enough to make the Chevron CEO's head spin, Guyana, the country to the north of Venezuela, super oil rich. Of course, Exxon and Chevron there in that lawsuit, which ended either way, that's going to be more of a buildout. The Russia story is interesting, Carl. And if you figure out which way the Russia story is going to go, please let me know so we can let everybody in the energy space know, because how that plays out and more of these either aggressive sanctions against Russia

and or Ukrainian drone strikes inside of Russia at refineries, that can be the thing that moves the energy markets more than anything else. Indeed. And some of the commentary out of EU officials regarding their own purchases of Russian energy, it's been an eventful day, that's for sure, Brian. Thanks. I'll talk soon, Brian Sullivan. When we come back, former Dallas Fed President Fisher standing by with his first reaction

to Chair Powell's speech today, closing bell. We'll be right back. Welcome back. We heard from Fed Chair Powell today in his first speech since last week's rate cut. He left the door open for future rate cuts, calling current rates modestly restricted. and said weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation for now. Joining us this afternoon, Richard Fisher, former Dallas Fed President and Jeffrey's senior advisor. Richard, good to see you again. Thanks for joining us today.

Yeah, thank you, Carl. What's up? You know, the thing that got a lot of attention in Powell's remarks was this notion that equities are, quote, fairly, highly valued. I was thinking back to when Yellen got some blowback for saying small cap biotech shares were expensive back in the day. Did this line strike you as interesting? I think it's interesting, and I'll tell you why, because I think it was March 6th of 2009. If you may remember, Carl, the S&P bottomed at 666. And in the ensuing FOMC meeting, I made a comment that we had defeated, it was the Book of Revelation moment. We had defeated the devil of hyperbarish markets.

Well, where did it close this Friday? 6,000, 666. That's a tenfold increase. That's pretty darn good returns for equity investors. By the way, those that complain about the Fed, be careful I like to say at the hand that fed you, no pun intended. But these are very strong valuations. And as we all know, Carl, a lot of it's concentrated in a very few number of companies.

But I think he just made an objective statement. I can't find anybody that doesn't feel things are at least richly priced, if not overpriced. So I don't see any controversy in that statement whatsoever. How about the notion that the Fed is in a challenging situation, giving conflicting signals on both sides of the mandates? There's no risk-free path, as you put it last week, although I'm not sure anyone thinks there is a path that is risk-free. Every path is risk-ridden, but no, I think he's been very, and he did it again today.

It's the same stuff he talked about in his presser and what they said in the press release from the FOMC meeting. There is a downside risk on employment, and there is still some upside risk on inflation, and they're going to have to steer their way through those straits in order to get it right. I do accept the fact that they made a quarter point cut simply because they're uncertain here, but they felt that would be helpful. There could be more coming. And I didn't find anything remarkable about his speech.

And by the way, didn't find anything remarkable at all about Steve Myron's speech either. Very predictable. He laid out his logic. He now has to convince the 18 other people at the table at an FOMC meeting, whether or not he should be listened to or not. But I think they're doing the right thing at this juncture. I wouldn't rule out further rate cuts. But I don't think necessarily they have to be momentous.

It's a question of how you move at the margin to deal with the risk. And Carl, one of the things I like to track the National Federation Independent Business surveys, these are small, medium-sized, not listed companies. We don't talk about them. But they create 80% of all the jobs in America and hold half. And if you look at the recent surveys there, no one's complaining about access to credit. And in fact, their cost for credit has gone down just a little bit on a couple basis points. What they're really concerned about, and this gets to the conversation here, is the availability

of labor and whether or not they can continue to afford to retain the workers that they have, and many of them comment on the fact that these immigration policies are making their labor relations difficult and more expensive. So labor really is the issue here. They're not talking about inflation as a major problem yet. They have concerns going forward. We'll see how the terrorists work their way through to small, medium-sized businesses. They're not worried about access to credit.

What they are worried about is the labor situation. So we're going to have to monitor that very, very carefully, and that's where jobs are created in America. Yeah. The thing that struck me about NFIB, since you brought it up, with the percentage of firms net who are planning to raise average selling prices that fell to 21. You got to go back to October of last year. get a number that low. That's correct. So, well, let's hope that obtains. And we're just going to have to see how, again, as Powell and others have mentioned, you heard it on your previous

shows today, how long it takes for that to actually work its way into the system, how companies respond, and whether they eat it or pass it on to protect their margins, we don't know yet. And we know that it's a tax. We just don't know how it's going to affect the consumer. And that's what we should be monitoring. Yeah, for now, definitely focused on the so-called middle mile, as they say, Richard, and we're still chopping away on our way to PCE. It's good to see you. Thanks for the help today. Yeah, thank you, Carl. Appreciate it. Richard Fisher. When we come back, we're tracking the biggest movers as we go into the close. Christina Parts Neville standing by with that. Christina. Let's start with a record-breaking day on Wall Street's precious metals hit fresh highs

amid rate-cut expectations. Then you have a medical supplier who are seeing shares surge on better than expected guidance, while auto parts giant does suffer its fifth straight, quote, miss. We'll have those market movers when we come back after this short break. Just over 10 minutes until the closing bell. Let's get back to Christina Parts of Nevelos for a look at some key stocks to watch. Christina. Well, let's actually start with a commodity hitting a new intraday high. That would be gold on Paceford's 37th record closed this year, and it really just comes amid expectations of further rate cuts. The Vanek gold miners ETF, we often, you know, just talk about it when we're talking about gold. That's down,

what, not even two-tenths of a percentage right now. McKesson, though, those shares are after it posted better than expected guidance. It comes as the medical supplier company aims to really focus on high margin business such as cancer medicines to boost growth. And that's why you're seeing shares up almost 7% and more than 30% just this

year alone. And lastly, AutoZone shares are lower after its Q4 results fell just shy of estimates. The company did see a pickup in same store sales and said it plans to expand its physical footprint, but shares are down about half a percent, Carl. All right, Christina, thanks.

Next, what to watch when Micron reports at the top of the hour. The Market Zone is coming up next. We are now in the closing bell market zone. CNBC Senior Markets commentator Mike Santoli going to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. Kate Rogers tracking a new report on GLP-1s and some restaurant stocks. And Christina Parts of Nevelos getting a setup for Micron after the bell. But Mike, let's begin with you and get your take on this day where kind of cyclicals did lead and tech lagged. Yeah, exactly.

A bit of the inverse of yesterday where you had. actually very good underlying market breadth, very poor market breath, actually. Most stocks down, but Apple and Nvidia basically carried the index to a half percent gain. You do have the core AI trade under a lot of pressure today. A bit of a rethink of this sort of Nvidia cross-partnership type deals, and then the power management area like Vertive getting hit on this Microsoft self-cooling chip news. Whatever it is, it shows you that some of the crowded high-conviction trades getting a little bit of an exit. Another small point, the high for the day in the S&P 500 was 6699.52.

So it could just be we got a little bit of a round number, culmination moment, and we'll see if we are just reloading to take it higher. But you've got about 50-50 market breadth under the surface. So not a washout by any stretch. Right. Vicks did get above 17. I think, thanks Mike Zaccardi, maybe flirting with the highest settle since August. Yeah, the chart, if it were a stock, you'd kind of say,

okay, it's based and it might be turning higher here. It was refusing to make new lows as the S&P made new highs. It could just be people bracing for some seasonal chop. It could be that some of the erratic action, as we were discussing this morning, Carl, in some of those real high momentum areas of the market are starting to get people a little bit nervous that the overall index is going to maybe take on

a little bit of weird vibrations from that. So I do think it all fits together with people wondering just sort of what it might take for the broad market to power higher from this level in a very timely way, as opposed to it being really a true danger sign. Mike, we'll circle around in a second. Let's get to Kate Rogers this afternoon, as we said, looking at a new report on GLP-1s and the impact that they are having

on some of these restaurant stocks. Hi, Kate. Hey, Carl. So BTIG is Peter Salae out with a new note this morning on GLP ones and the industry. BTIG surveyed more than 1,000 GLP1 users in the U.S. to figure out how they are impacting eating habits. They found that lower income consumers making less than $45,000 annually accounted for roughly a third of GLP1 users, while 44% were upper income making over 75K year, the balance, middle income.

Saleh writes here, digging deeper, our work indicates that about 70% of GLP1 users are visiting restaurants less or much less since starting the medication, and users were most commonly reducing consumption of carbonated beverages, pizza, burgers, and alcohol. Now, that's key, as many names, of course, are trying to court the lower income consumer with value offerings. And that group, again, makes up about a third of those GLP-1 users, fast food stocks, McDonald's and Yum. Up on the year, Wendy's much lower as it faces challenges, executive changes and more. The pizza names are also slightly higher on the year, too. And one more thing, Carl, I thought was interesting. Peter notes that the drop-off rate is between 70 and 80 percent in the first year for these drugs, right?

So after people wind up stopping taking them, they may revert back to their old health. habits. So once we reach, you know, peak usage, then we can kind of get a sense of what this really means for the sector. But definitely quite a few names to watch. It's interesting. I mean, it does kind of make you wonder, Kate, if we're already seeing these kinds of effects, what happens in a year or two years where they've kind of refined the pill dose and potentially broadening the universe of patients who might be on it. Yeah, or might be interested in taking it as you note, maybe those side effects are lessened. It gets a little bit better. We'll see how it all shakes out. But the names that we mentioned that are kind of catering to the low-income consumer

also tend to fare well in more challenging economic environments, too. So there's a lot of factors at play for how these stocks are going to perform in the back half of the year here. Yeah, indeed. Kate, thank you. Pretty provocative stuff on GLP-1s and restaurants. Let's send it over to Christina Parks and Evelos. Get a look at what to watch from Micron. Not too long from now, KP. Yeah, well, the memory giant already pre-announced. This is important. They pre-announced their results back in August. So the real focus is going to be on forward guidance. And there's three key themes. First, you got PC demand, finally showing life and expected to really pick up heading into

year-end, you know, with the holidays, etc., which should support conventional memory pricing after just years of weakness. Second, you've got the AI story that's continuing with high bandwidth memory, and that's the specialized memory that gets paired with AI processors. Micron's really fighting for share in next generation. This is HBM4, high bandwidth memory. Chips that'll power in video's future systems, but it does face intensifying competition from Samsung. Third point, capital spending guidance for fiscal 2026. The street wants to see Micron

commit to at least about $18 to $19 billion in CAPEX, aka just showing a vote of confidence that this memory cycle really has legs. The stock, though, has been up, what, 40% this month alone, so expectations, Carl, are sky high. The bottom line, since they already pre-announced strong results in August, today's real test is really going to be about whether management can convince investors. This memory super cycle is sustainable. and not unwinding like we're just seeing today. Yeah, we always love hearing from Sanjay Marotra. Going to be interesting to talk about the quarter with him tomorrow.

KP, thank you very much. Mike Santoli, the other thing I was watching today, Home Builders, 10 day of the XHB, kind of gave the way that one day pop on the Fed decision and then some. Yes, so it shows you. It craves ever lower rates in order for it to work. The Lanar guidance is really having, I think, a little bit of further ripple effects days later, earnings coming down on that. It just feels as if there's not an easy way out

for a lot of those foam builders right now. The other piece of it is a lot of lagger groups are working today. Energy up 2%, crude up 2%, maybe on the president's comments on Ukraine. And the bull case for oil is not that it's going to race ahead, but that it hasn't actually gone to new lows when the supply demand dynamic wasn't so great. So to me, the market's looking for laggards

or at least looking for some areas that have not become overplayed to try and keep the index and support it. It's a delicate dance. We'll see if it manages to hang in now. Mike, appreciate it very much. Interesting session on a day where the Dow laggards are going to be. Amazon, Invidia, Salesforce, Microsoft, Apple. Certainly not the best of days for Megatab Tech, at least on the index level.

That is a closing bell.