Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 10/24/25

Episode Date: October 24, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, that's the standard regulation. Citigroup bringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. One in one green technology is doing the honors of the NASDAQ. Stock soaring to record highs. On the back of a delayed CPI report showing inflation was softer. I guess they're just saying cooler than expected. The Dow closing above 47,000 for the first time, record closes for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ as well. And today's gain, putting all the major averages into the green for the week, gains of 2% across the board.

six of the MAG-7 stocks higher today, with the exception of Tesla, a big week for Apple. The stock hitting an all-time high, getting close to $4 trillion market cap. The yield on the 10-year note hanging around 4%. That's following the inflation data. We're going to have more on that in just a moment. And gold lower on the week. This is the first down week for since the middle of August and after nine straight weeks. Yeah, that's the scorecard on Wall Street, but winter stay late.

Welcome to closing about overtime. I'm John Ford alongside Morgan Brennan ahead. Next week, we'll put this rally to the test with Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon reporting. Can the momentum keep going if we don't get big beats? Plus, Jamie Diamond may have called Bitcoin a pet rock last year, but the bank is now embracing it. As collateral for loans, we're going to dive into that. Love my pet rock. And it's not just a big week ahead in the markets.

It's a big week for D.C. policy as well. We're going to break down what's on the agenda and the market impact. For more on this record day for the markets, though, let's get. to Christina Parts and Avelas at the NASDAQ. Hi, Christina. Hi. I was going to say we're in an unusual moment and I'm thinking to my head I want to pet rock, but really it has to do with the Fed expected to cut rates while the economy just accelerates and AI infrastructure spending just really shows no signs of slowing. And that's why you had markets rally on that backdrop today celebrating better than expected inflation data and anticipation of another

rate cut. Financials definitely helping climbing about 1% Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, driving some of those gains. You can see Goldman Sachs up for closing 4%, I should say higher. Coinbase, though, surging about 9%. Chips in the spotlight, AMD popping today on a Reuters report that IBM successfully ran key quantum computing error correction using AMD's chips, which is a potential breakthrough for commercializing quantum technology. And that's why shares did climb. AMD is now up over 55% just in October alone. Its biggest monthly gain since January 2001. And since we talked about quantum, that quantum momentum really rippling across the

sector, D-Wave and IMQ, closing higher, D-Wave about 5% higher, but on the week down double-digits. So, that's a lot of volatility. But if you want to talk even more volatility, beyond meat. Delivered a masterclass this week, surging over 500% on meme stock frenzy before crashing back down. A textbook example of the difference between sustained momentum and pure speculation, closing 23% lower. Guys, John? All right, Christina, thank you. Now to the bond market, as the 10-year, hover around 4% after today's evening.

inflation print. Rick Santelli in Chicago with that, Rick. Yes, look at the interday charts. They really do speak volumes. Two's and tens on one chart. They move significantly lower at 830 Eastern when the inflation data was released. Then they moved back up. You know, lower than expectations, the more I think about that, the more I scratch my head. The reality is that the year-over-year numbers are both at 3%. A hundred basis points above the Fed target. So I don't know how optimistic we could be if the Fed's target has any meaning whatsoever, especially considering pretty much 100% chance or lower a quarter point on Wednesday.

Let's look at a week to date. Two-year no yields at 347.5 or up a basis point in a half. They closed at 346 last week. Ten year closed at 401, hovering just below 4%. It is amazing to me how much volatility is in equities and how little is in the Treasury. complex. And do remember, next week, we have two year and five-year auctions on Monday. We have a seven-year auction on Tuesday with the Fed on Wednesday. The dollar index on the week is up about a half a cent, and it's been hovering just below 100 for the last several days. Morgan, John,

back to both of you, and have a nice weekend. You too, Rick Santali. We're keeping you busy. Thank you. The Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ, all hitting record highest today as earnings enthusiasm and a softer inflation print boosted sentiment. So far, results have come in above expectations with 87% EPS beat rate and 82% beat on revenue. So with today's inflation report, can we add rate cuts to the list of bullish market indicators? And will that keep this rally going? Well, joining us now is Renaissance macro research head of U.S. economics, Neil Dutta, and Evans May, wealth managing partner, Brooke May. Great to have you both here. And Brooke, I'm going to kick this conversation off with you because so far, earnings season has been

incredibly strong when you look at these beat rates much, much higher than we've seen previously and historically when it comes to EPS numbers and revenue. What's your takeaway? I think that management's had to be cautious. There's been a lot of uncertainty this year around, you know, what tariffs would be, what AI innovations would occur. And so when businesses give guidance, they've erred on the side of caution because being wrong or wrong or overestimating can be punitive. So what we're seeing now is that companies have figured out how to navigate this environment. And tariffs haven't been as crippling as we anticipated. And there's more clarity than there was at the beginning of the year. So with caution guidance, we're getting, you know, beats right now.

87% of companies beating is stellar. However, not all companies are. When you look at financials, for example, big banks like J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, have all had stellar reports. But you look at other areas like regional banks where there are concerns around credit losses or even Blackstone this week, there's disappointment. So you really have to look right now at the individual companies that you're buying and not necessarily just as an individual sector. Neil, how does CPI factor in, especially when particularly on the services side today, when you look at core CPI, it came in cooler than expected? Yeah, well, I think it sort of cements a rate cut.

I mean, I don't think there's really any debate about that, Morgan. I mean, last year, inflation ran 3%. And so far this year, it's running 3% despite meaningful upward pressure from tariffs. So what does that tell you? It tells me that underlying inflation is actually lower than people think, which is why the Fed has the space to continue cutting interest rates. So I think not only are they going to be cutting next week, but I think that, I think it's highly likely that they'll be cutting once more, once again in December.

To me, the real risk is how we should be thinking about 2026. I mean, you have to assume that the government will reopen at some point. We start to see, you know, the data dripping out. And I suspect it'll tell us that the economy's, you know, somewhat weaker than the GDP statistics show in the third quarter. And that, to me, leaves me, you know, more bullish, frankly, on the long end of the Treasury yield curve here. Okay. Brooke, you point out that the equal weight S&P is trading at only around 17 times earning. So if you're one of those investors who has maybe ridden the broader market up this far,

what does that say about how you might rebalance or how to think about where the gains are going to come from from here? I don't know that I would rebalance. I think that it justifies, though, the elevated PE that we're seeing. You know, when we look at the beginning of 2025, we were trading around 22 times. times on PE on the market and we're around that level still. So yes, the market is elevated, but when you look at the MAG 7 or the biggest weighted names in the S&P 500, that's where the earnings are. We think that the S&P 500, we think that right now the MAG 7 earnings could be up about

15% this quarter year every year. But when you look last quarter, they were expected to be up about 14, 15%, and they were up about 26%. So you've got to follow the earnings. So, yes, we're trading at an elevated PE, but the market can trade at an elevated PE for a prolonged period of time. And if the earnings are there to justify it, the market can continue to be higher. Neil, that suggests to me a lot riding on those Mag 7 earnings. A lot of them coming next week.

How much does the market depend on that and how healthy do you think this bifurcation is between the rich getting richer, both when it comes to stock and elsewhere in the economy? I think it matters. Thanks for Neil. Neil, go ahead. Yeah, well, I was just going to say, I mean, John, you mentioned like the sort of case-shaped economy everyone's talking about, you know, in client meetings, I hear that a lot, right? I mean, stocks are at highs, we have this big AI cap-x boom, rich people are spending money.

And people talk about that as if that's sort of three separate things. It's really a derivative of the same thing. And, you know, to me, that's not necessarily the best foundation. You know, I'm a U.S. macro economist, right? I'm looking at the labor markets, which are. slowing. I mean, we had a bevy of layoff announcements this week, Target, applied materials, GM, Amazon, I mean, go down the list. And, you know, despite lower gas prices and higher stock prices, you haven't really seen consumer confidence recover. And people are still telling you

that the labor markets are sluggish. So to me, between the weak labor market and ongoing slowing in housing and residential construction, you know, there's a lot not to like about the economy, quite frankly. And that to me means that there are sort of increasing downside risk, economic growth and the jobs market, which I don't think people currently appreciate. You know, it's really hard for the markets to price in the right tail with AI and then the left tail risk with growth. And the markets are not pricing in or even considering the left tail risk to growth. You know, right now we basically have what, like an implied probability of recession below 10% in the financial markets. That's well below even a historical norm.

So, you know, to me, there are some risk, you know, some potholes potentially in front of us. Okay. Duly noted, Neil, Brooke, thank you. Now coming up, Jamie Diamond's no fan of Bitcoin. He's made that clear. But J.P. Morgan's softening its stance a little, letting investors offer Bitcoin as collateral. We're going to get into that next. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rising back above 110,000 of more than 3% for the week. While gold snaps a nine-week winning streak,

is a rotation happening. Overtimes back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Jamie Diamond has called Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme, a fraud, or if he wants to be nice, a pet rock. But now J.P. Morgan is allowing clients to pledge Bitcoin in Ether as collateral for loans. Leslie Picker is joining us now with details. Hi, Leslie. Hey, Morgan. Yeah. And chatting with source is familiar with the matter. I'm told it's still early days. And for now, the concept is limited to the firm's trading business. J.P. Morgan's trading business has for a few months now accepted iBid, the ETF, as a form of collateral, which it ceases less volatile as the underlying currency. However, I'm told that certain hedge

fund managers and asset managers are demanding more of these types of crypto services, although again, I'm told that offering Bitcoin and Ether is collateral for trading is not imminent at the firm. While many remember, as you mentioned Morgan, Jamie Diamond's comments about Bitcoin being, say, a pet rock, he has my mind. moderated his tone recently. Here's what he said when I asked him a few months ago about the firm's increasing overlap in crypto, including a Coinbase partnership and the stable coin like token JPMD. If the customers want to use it and how they use it and it's used properly, we'll be doing it. It's what the customer wants is not what J.P. Morgan personally wants.

J.P. Morgan declined to comment, but this is a space to watch because although it's early days and so far isolated to the trading division, it could ultimately expand to other areas of the business, whether it's corporate or asset management or even consumer. But again, early days still here, but still quite interesting, guys. It's early days at JP Morgan, but I wonder when you have, you know, the world's biggest bank now waiting into this, what it's going to mean for the other financial services and banks that are already in this arena as well as some of the crypto banks. Yeah, I think usually the way it works is if a client, gets a certain service from one bank.

They ask if it's available at the other counterparties. It's also doing businesses, other prime brokerage divisions and so forth. And so this is definitely something where J.P. Morgan has heard from, as I mentioned, the hedge fund managers and asset managers is a service that they want. And the firm has kind of been of the mindset recently that if regulations allow for it, they will explore it and figure out what they need to do to make it happen. The bigger question comes from kind of a risk management. standpoint, which is that Bitcoin and Ether are more volatile than typical types of collateral.

So you have to take a certain size haircut in order to make that feasible from a risk management standpoint. And that's kind of where the exploration happens right now to see exactly how much more they need to hold in collateral in order for that collateral to be made up of, you know, more volatile securities. All right. Leslie, thank you. And now speaking of crypto, Bitcoin rising back above 110,000 this week, and the NASDAQ posted a record closed. So is this a sign that the risk on trade is back in full force? Well, let's ask one of the biggest bulls on the street. Fundstraps, Tom Lee, Tom, happy Friday.

So we're up more than 15% year-to-date for the S&P, probably more than you expected in late spring. At the same time, we had this government shutdown, tariff headaches. So why are you, why should investors be more bullish on risk assets, the market overall, than they were six months ago? Well, John, you know, even at the April lows, just to be clear, our S&P year-end target was 6,600. So we were still expecting explosive recovery in markets. But we are above that level. And, you know, we're 10 weeks before the end of the year and the S&Bs at 6,800. I think it's still a base case then for people to say that in just a typical year,

the S&P should gain another 4%. That would put us over 7,000 into the end of the year. And I think that that's sort of the minimum. But because we've got the Fed cutting, and they started in September, they've been on pause all year. That only happened twice in the last 50 years, which is 1998 and 2024. I actually think the S&P, given the skepticism that's been plaguing this market all year, we could do far better than 4%, you know, maybe even 10% into year end. Wow.

Okay. So where does crypto fit in, especially when you're looking at how those currencies are moving versus what's happening with tariff concerns, global trade concerns, et cetera? Yeah, I mean, crypto had a huge de-leveraging event on October 10th. 10th. And part of that was triggered by the escalating tensions with the U.S. and China on tariffs and trade. That was the biggest liquidation event in five years for crypto. So there is still those ripple effects, you know, two weeks later that are plaguing the crypto market. But I think we're almost through that because a measure like something called open interest for both

Ethereum and Bitcoin are at record lows at a time when the technicals for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are flipping positive. So I think you're going to see a crypto rally into the end of the year. And it really does help C.J.P. Morgan say they're open to the idea of using crypto as collateral. Yeah, I was actually going to get your thoughts on that, Tom. But in light of that, and you and I have had these conversations over the months, over the years, I can think about the conversation we had in early August where you talked about on the exchange where you talked about the fact that cryptocurrencies tend to be early indicators of where stocks are directionally headed, as well as indicators of liquidity in the broader market. So given what we are seeing

in Bitcoin, and as that relates to the S&P 500, and arguably what we're seeing in Ethereum, and what that says about the Russell 2000, want to get your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I think it's sending a pretty bullish signal. Part of it is it's a counterfactual statement, but crypto had the biggest liquidation event, de-leveraging event in history. I mean, the number is probably multiples of what happened during FTX, and Bitcoin ends up down 3 or 4%. So I think it shows you that Bitcoin itself is proving to be a pretty good store of value because if we had seen this happen with gold in the gold market, if there was a huge leveraging event and gold was only down a few percentage points, we'd of course consider that

a real validation. And it's also true of Ethereum, because Ethereum is seeing so much activity growth. I mean, on the L1 and the L2, because of stable coins, and it's not reflected in the price. It does take time. So to me, because like what I'd call the fundamental activity on Ethereum is really picking up, it argues for a pretty big move into end of the year as well. Do you think we're saying rotation out of gold, given the fact that it just moved so quickly to record highs into some of these cryptocurrencies? Now, I don't follow gold as closely, but I did talk to Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, and he does think that there was what he called a cup and handle pattern earlier this year, and then the targeted move was right

around where gold is peaking now. So he does think we might be seeing a short-term peak in gold. That's kind of good news for almost everything else, because as you know, gold was sucking the oxygen out of equities and out of crypto. So a gold cooling is probably bullish for both stocks and for Bitcoin and Ethereum. All right. Tom Lee. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks. The market soaring to all-time highs today on the back of that CPI report this morning. But investors have been without other key data during this 24-day shutdown and counting. Mike Santoli is looking at a few of the sectors that are in the spotlight as a result.

Plus, President Trump canceling talks with Canada and heading to Asia for a high-stakes meeting with President Xi, with the threat of 100% tariffs looming. Overtime, we'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime market showing some relief on the outlook for inflation following today's CPI report. But that report is the only real data point we've gotten from the government lately. So how can investors assess economic growth without that data? Let's bring in CNBC senior market commentator Mike Santoli. Mike.

Yeah, John, sometimes you have to defer to how the markets are conveying the current assessment of the economy. And one way to do it, I always monitor these equal weighted versions of industrials. and consumer cyclicals, consumer discretionary. This is industrial, that's consumer discretionary over a one-year basis. They had been clear leadership for a while, and this is being compared to the overall equal-weighted S&P 500. You see consumer in particular here has flagged to some degree. In fact, it was down today as a group. The industrials underperformed as well. So I think you have to keep an eye on this. Now that we have some kind of comfort on the inflation side, or at least the Fed's not going to react to inflation in a hostile way,

Are we certain about whether the kind of fall off in job growth and the very weak consumer confidence data and some of the housing market indicators are not going to erode the picture for economic growth? Right now doesn't seem like alarm, but there's definitely a reason to keep this stuff on a shorter leash. Take a look here at the home builders. Another one where it's kind of been stuck against its 200-day moving average. We did bounce off of that. The actual 200-day moving average is kind of flat, so it's going to take some strength to turn that back into a positive. trend. And also, it started up a couple of bucks today, the home builders did, as yields ticked lower. And it didn't manage to hold those gains. So again, not to say that the overall picture

isn't bullish in terms of how the tape has responded in the last couple of weeks to that little bit of a wobble based on the tariff and credit fears. But I do think you have to at least scrutinize these areas because we just don't know exactly what consumption and job growth looked like on an official basis. Mike, does it come down to looking for proxies for labor demand? To a degree, although I think there's an extra step because even given labor demand appearing to be relatively soft, there's a case to be made, and many are making the case that there's been a disconnect between the pace of job growth and underlying economic growth. The GDP is still tracking at a pretty healthy level. CapEx is very strong. Affluent spending is very strong. We have labor supply issues. So I do think that's big piece of the puzzle, but you also have to decide if we labor demand is actually telling you something about the broader economic experience in the next few months. All right.

Mike, thanks. We'll see you again in just a bit. Well, time for our CNBC News update with Julia Borsten. Julia. Hey, John. The Department of Agriculture reportedly says it cannot draw on its emergency reserves to ensure tens of millions of Americans receive their food benefits for November. Democrats have been calling on the agency to tap into the funds which could cover about

two-thirds of the shortfall caused by the on. ongoing government shutdown. But according to Axios, the USDA issued a one-page memo today, saying the fund is only for true emergencies, such as hurricanes or tornadoes. FBI director Cash Patel will travel to China next month, according to CBS News. The visit is reportedly part of the agencies crackdown on international suppliers of chemicals tied to fentanyl. President Trump previously said he would bring up the issue in a meeting next Thursday with China's Xi Jinping. And after months of delay, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries officially endorsed Zohran Mamdani today in the New York City mayoral race

less than two weeks before the election. Several other high-profile New York Democrats still have not thrown their weight behind Mamdani, including Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. Back over to you. Morgan? All right, Julia Borson, thank you. We're on day 24 of the government shutdown. More than three weeks without pay for some federal workers. We're seeing long lines today at a food bank in Alexandria, Virginia. And while this is happening, the president is in a tariff tiff with Canada and with China. We're going to get you set for a high stakes week in Washington. That is coming up after this. Welcome back to overtime. Coming into earnings season, there were a lot of worries about the impact of tariffs. But in the past week, some companies

have said they expect less of an impact from tariffs. This morning, Procter & Gamble saying it now expects tariffs to add $400 million to its annual cost versus its prior estimate of $800 million. Last night, Decker's outdoors lowering its expected impact from tariffs by $35 million. Ford saying the hit to its bottom line will be $1 billion less than anticipated. Boston Beer now sees an impact of $9 to $13 million, lower than the anticipated $15 to $20. And finally, Baker Hughes, the oil field services giant, saying the impact of tariffs on this year's results will be at the lower end of the range it gave in April. But, of course, there's another side.

We did see Nike, Canagra brands, and Macy's say tariffs would hit them harder than expected. Yeah, we saw that with Alcoa earlier this week, too. Well, sticking with a tariff theme, President Trump calling off all trade talks with Canada after TV ads from Ontario, featured former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Next week is going to be a major one for Washington as we head into. to another week of the government shutdown. Plus, President Trump traveling to Asia, set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday

in hopes of negotiating a trade deal with that country. Joining us now to talk about all of this. The big political week ahead, Mark Short, former chief of staff to Mike Pence. And Mark, it's great to have you on. Welcome. Thanks, morning. Thanks for having me. I think I've got to start with trade,

especially because this is very much what investors are focused on and has helped send stocks to record highs here this week. the fact that investors seem to be very keen on the idea or expecting some sort of trade truce between the U.S. and China, are they right to think that we get that? Well, look, I think that we still have the highest effective rate we have in 100 years since Smoot-Hawley. I think there's a lot of people, when Liberation Day came, assume that this is just part of the president's negotiating style, and these aren't going to be really implemented.

And here we are many months later. And even as John recounts numbers that are less the next expectation, it's still hundreds of millions and in one case a billion dollar hit to companies. So it's still pretty substantial. I do think that for China, as we head into the next week, the China is looking for relief from the tariffs. They're looking for access to semiconductors. And for the United States, we're looking for access to rare earth minerals. We're looking for China to begin purchasing agricultural products. So you can see a contour of a deal here. But I think it's probably something that's going to be a little ways off. I think this weekend, you'll see the more important work with Besson and Jameson Greer meeting their counterparts in Malaysia

and hopefully paving away for a meeting with Trump and G. And I think that they'll probably be as often as with Trump, probably an announcement of something that appears bigger than his reality. But for some of these harder issues, it's probably going to take a little bit of time before there's actual more significant relief on the tariffs. How much should we juxtapose that to the fact that these trade talks with China have been, I mean, with Canada, excuse me, have been called off. I mean, we went to this week, and there was a lot of optimism that we could be close to a deal. Well, let's keep in mind the president announced the 145% tariffs on China, then announced another 100% that he's even indicated himself may not happen on November 1st. So if you use that as an example, I think sometimes he can be a little more bluster on these.

So I think with it, obviously Canada is an important trading partner, and it's probably more of a negotiation perspective and probably just being upset about, the ad. But I do think it's remarkable that, you know, Republicans have now moved to the point of Reagan as being the hero for our party and moving away from his positions and dissing themselves from Canada that is pretty much a socialist, it has been a socialist economy. And they're embracing free trade. And we have a Republican administration that probably has more central planners in its administration than since any Democrat administration in decades. Mark, taking it to this shutdown, which is ongoing, what are the polls telling you about which party likely voters blame for it?

And what do you think are the risks to the economy? What kind of pressures we're likely to see come to bear as we head toward the end of the year? John, great question. I think that this is more mixed than usual. I think traditionally Republicans have been the initiators of shutdowns and voters have looked at him as such. in this case i think that truly democrats are the ones who have voted against the current government funding but for a lot of voters it's more mixed and i think it's unclear in their minds they say republicans control the house the senate and the white house and the reality is that you know you need

60 votes in the senate but that's confusing for most voters and i think that's led to the reality that you're at an impasse because neither side has really pushed to resolve this i think for the administration the president's kind of risen above this he's he's striking hotly He's dealing with new sanctions on Russia. He's going to China or going to Asia, potentially meeting with Xi. And so he's at a different level than kind of the dysfunction in Congress. So they're not incentive to resolve this quickly. And I think for Democrats, they look at it and say,

we're not entirely being blamed for this. And they think the closer they get to November 1st and the announcement of new Obamacare insurance premiums and the shock value of that, that they'll be in the driver's seat. So I really think that's going to be what drives the resolution here as you get close to November 1st. And not just the insurance premiums, but actually the failure to provide funding for SNAP and for food stamps. But I also got to think we're in this 12-month runway, right, coming up on it toward the midterms. And a big question mark, I think, in the economy and probably in the electorate at the same time, is the state of the working class when we see these costs that have been rising, maybe not rising as quickly.

but still up. And there's a question, certainly, about where things go from here. The rich are doing great. The markets are higher. How do you see the parties handling that? And how much does that play into this shutdown messaging strategy? Well, I think the reality that markets keep hitting all-time highs gives the Trump administration what they think is breathing room to continue this extremely protectionist trade policy.

But as you indicate, John, the reality is that the labor market is a lot softer. And that's where you see a lot more voters in middle America. And so I think that pretends challenges for Republicans, particularly if this trade agenda is hurting farmers and ranchers who have been, you know, reliably Republican voters in the past, if that gets into next year and this hasn't been resolved in the agricultural front, I think it creates a lot more risk for Republicans right now heading into the midterms. All right. Mark Short. We'll watch it. Thank you. Thanks for having me, guys. Well, we want to note CNBC is one of several TV networks airing the province of Ontario's Reagan. add. Just a short time ago, however, Ontario's premier, Doug Ford, saying he would pause the campaign starting Monday. Well, they say money can't buy you love, but the Los Angeles Dodgers

are proving it can buy you wins. The big spenders are going for the second straight world series title. Would it be a bad sign for baseball if they win again? We're going to debate that. That's coming up right here on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you caught up on a record day for the markets, all-time highs for the major averages. The Dow crossing 47,000 for the first time when it closed. The S&P just shy of 6,800. All major averages closing out the week with gains of 2%. Gold's pulling back this week, though, snapping a nine-week winning streak. We've never actually seen 10 full winning weeks for gold, so perhaps in line with history there. IBM a standout today, though, jumping nearly 8%, continuing its earnings halo,

getting an upgrade from Bank of America for it. Also, big gains on strong results. The stock is now 39% this year. Look at that. It closed up 12% today. Booz Allen Hamilton, though, that fell nearly 9% after slashing its outlook in all key metrics and slashing jobs. The company, which is a government services contractor facing a slowdown and government contract funding due to the shutdown. Similar situation, by the way, at SAIC, which noted a prolonged shutdown will impair their ability to meet guidance. I mean, we're talking about cuts and And you're talking about a freeze in government funding, John. They are on the front lines for this.

Oh, for sure. Well, tonight is game one of the World Series with the Toronto Blue Jays facing the Los Angeles Dodgers. Dodgers are defending champs with a roughly $350 million payroll. So what would another Dodgers victory mean for the sport? Let's bring in Alex Sherman. Alex, RIP Moneyball. Yeah, I mean, John, the biggest business story around baseball next season, is going to be should baseball implement a salary cap at the end of the year.

That's when their collective bargaining agreement runs out. Major League Baseball is the only major American sport that does not have a salary cap, the NHL, the NBA, the NFL. They all do. And the Dodgers are really one of two poster children for why the league may want to institute one. The Mets being the other one. Poor Mets, though, they seem to figure out a way of losing every season. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are the defending World Series champion,

And as you mentioned, now they're going for back-to-back World Series. They have the second largest team payroll in the league, just behind the Mets. And surprisingly, the Toronto Blue Jays, their opponent, have the fifth largest total team spend. I think that will be a surprise to some casual fans, certainly, of baseball. Because the Blue Jays haven't actually been in the World Series since 1993. So these two teams that are at the top of the pile for team spend does provide an argument to team owners and the Commissioner Rob Manfred for perhaps why the league should institute a salary cap for competitive balance reasons. Of course, this is a very controversial

issue among a lot of fans, many of which say the reason that there is a competitive balance issue, if there is one at all, is that the bottom teams, those team owners, don't spend enough money. So a salary cap is not going to fix that. What they need is actually a salary floor. So those are going to be the main discussions at the end of this year, at the end of next year, I should say, when that baseball season wraps up. Alex, it's kind of a free market discussion, isn't it? It's like a minimum wage on the one end versus, you know, you know, capping off CEO salaries on the other. I guess the argument is, you know, if teams are acting in their self-interest and their

interest is to win games, which I guess is questionable, then why not let the market just work? right exactly and based on cnbc sport data the blue jays and the dodgers put most of their money right back into their team they don't actually have a real high profit those bottom teams because of major league baseball revenue sharing the bottom eight teams from a valuation standpoint actually made more money in ebada than either the dodgers or the blue jays did based on last season's data you know the manager for the dodgers Dave Roberts, he joked about this. He said, they said that the Dodgers are ruining baseball. Well, let's get four more wins and really ruined baseball.

Alex Sherman, thank you. A quick programming note. Season two of CNBC Sports. On the record is coming back. The six-episode season will premiere tomorrow, October 25th at 3 p.m. Eastern. This is hosted by Alex Sherman. It features CNBC Sports Exclusive Conversations

with some of the biggest names in sports and media. And as I mentioned, it airs tomorrow right here on CNBC. And John, I know there's a couple of these baseball jerseys floating around, including in our control room right now. So a lot of folks will be watching tonight. Nice, for sure. Well, coming up, Mike Santoli weighs in on whether the AI spending spree is going to provide enough bang for the buck. And Coinbase, soaring today on bullish commentary from the street.

We're going to tell you what the analysts have to say on the other side of this break. Welcome back to overtime shares of Coinbase. rallying a good 10% today after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to overweight with a price target of 404 up from 342. The analysts saying Coinbase's range of operations as a, quote, broker, market maker, and exchange broadly supports profitability. J.P. Morgan adds, they see emerging monetization opportunities and an attractive valuation versus peers. Coinbase reports earnings next Thursday. Well, much has been made about the potential productivity gains for the massive AI buildout, but are those gains enough to justify the magnitude of spending, at least yet?

Let's bring in CNBC's senior markets commentator Mike Santoli. Hi, Mike. Hey, Morgan. Yeah, we can't say it's not worth it yet because it probably does take a while. This is a Goldman Sach study of previous technology-driven productivity revolutions. Electrification in the 1920s of manufacturing, infotech in the 90s, and the Gen AI boom right now. This is how many years before and after you started to see the real productivity acceleration take place. So here's Gen A.I. It's tracking roughly the way the 90s IT boom did. And by the way, it's also a

smaller contributor to GDP growth than many are saying right now because a lot of the goods being used for it are imported and therefore net deductions from GDP. So it's so far seems like maybe it's on a decent pace. Take a look at one perhaps more near-term impact. If not of the AI investment, than the reallocated focus on AI, which is technology sector employment as a percentage of total employment. That's the blue line there. And you see it's rolled over to kind of cross below the long-term trend. Obviously, a huge acceleration higher, though, during the pandemic. So it could just be the company's overhired, found themselves with too many folks,

and are now erring on the side of trimming payrolls through attrition and such guys. Yeah. I mean, this is super fascinating to me, especially as we go into a week with MegaCAP, tech earnings and some expectations that even though we already have these gigantic capex spending numbers out there for this year and even looking to next year that those might actually get bumped up. Yeah, there's no doubt about it. I think that's where people are leaning and also are they going to be rewarded again for that? That's a good question. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you. Well, nearly a third of the S&P 500, more than a third of

the Dow report earnings next week coming up how the busiest week of earning season could move your money when overtime comes right back. Welcome back. We got breaking news on J.P. Morgan. Leslie Picker has the story for us. Hi, Leslie. Hey, Morgan. Yeah. J.P. Morgan is filing a motion to have the Delaware Chancery Court stop the firm's obligation to pay the legal fees for the two executives from the startup Frank, who were convicted of fraudulently inducing the bank to acquire it for about $175 million. J.P. Morgan is citing clear abuse for an unreasonable sum of fees, saying to date, that in compliance with the court's orders to pay for those legal fees, J.P. Morgan has advanced $115 million to Charlie Javees and Olivier Amar. J.P. Morgan says Javis engaged five law firms for her defense

and said they treated the fee advancement process like a, quote, blank check to bill. Javis was sentenced to seven years in prison in September for falsely inflating the number of customers for her startup, Frank. Olivier's sentencing is on the 5th of November. in the Southern District of New York, we've called Javisa's lawyer for comment, but have not heard back yet, guys. All right. Leslie, thank you. Well, pencils out to get ready for next week's trade, the busiest week of earnings, we'll be coming in fast and furious with nearly a third of the S&P 500 and more than a third of the Dow reporting. Monday we'll get results from New Corps, NXP, and Whirlpool. Tuesday's Visa, UPS, booking, and United Health.

Wednesday brings three of the biggest tech names, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. And Thursday, we'll hear from Apple and Amazon closing out the week, Exxon, Chevron, and more on Friday morning. And on top of all that, we'll get a Fed decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. with Powell's news conference at 2.30 p.m. Eastern. The market is pricing in another quarter point rate cut. All right. Well, for more on next week's big catalyst, let's bring in vital knowledge founder, Adam, Chris O'Fooley. Adam, this morning, you talked about who won this week, Bulls versus Bears. But next week, we have quite a list of catalysts here. So how do you think this sets us up for next week? Yeah, I think, you know, next Wednesday and Thursday in particular are going to be

just blockbusters as far as catalysts where you have, you know, the major tech companies all reporting, you have a critical Fed meeting, and then you have this big Trump Shee Summit in South Korea. So, you know, those three events will really dictate how markets trade over the rest of the year. You know, there's a lot of expectations are elevated on all three fronts. I think investors are anticipating full as check results, we're looking for not only a rate cut from the Fed, but very likely them turning off the quantity of tightening process as well. And then, you know, Trump Shee is a little bit more of a wildcard, I think, at the least investors assume status quo where we kind of continue this to taunt, no fresh tariffs, they continue to talk, et cetera. You know, an upside scenario would be some type of an incremental deal where you see maybe tariffs reduced, China, buy soybeans and Boeing planes, et cetera.

But that's the big wildcard, I think, it's the Trump Chief Summit. Yeah, it does certainly seem like a wild card. Do you think investors are a little too optimistic that we get to some sort of, I'm not even going to call it a trade deal. I'm going to call it a truce. Yeah, I definitely think the risk rewarding to that summit is not particularly positive. You know, if it's at the time, if it's status quo, I think that's widely, widely anticipated. I don't think that really gives you a lot of upside from here. If you've received deterioration in the relationship and you do see tariffs get imposed, then, you know, the downside is going to be much larger. So it's really going to take that kind of, you know, real, real trade deal. which does not seem likely at this point where tariffs are reduced and you kind of get purchasing agreements, et cetera. So the risk you're born into that somebody is not particularly positive now. Adam, it seems to me, but what do I know? Like the Mag 7 results, results from big tech and expectations of spending on AI, whatever wonderful things they say are coming, are probably going to prop up the market more than anything on.

the geopolitical front, absent something catastrophic, but I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, I think AI is the single most powerful force in this entire market. It's really driving, you know, it's not just an issue of driving tech spending. It's driving so much more. It's bleeding into a lot of industrial companies. It's fitting into the entire economy. It really is very powerful. And we know these companies are still spending mountains and mountains of money. We saw that in some of the suppliers this week, like Pertiz or Amphranol, which posted very robust results. I think the bigger issue and the bigger debate is, the economics of all this spending.

What's the return going to be on the spending over the coming years? And then the durability of the commitments, like the booking numbers from a lot of these tech startups, are those really going to kind of come to be over the coming years? Can those companies make good on their promises? And that's the real debate, and it's hard to tell at this time. Can the optimist stay optimistic, right? Because if you worried in 2025, you lost money, or at least didn't make much. But if you are a dreamer, if you sort of believed, and you look to AI and away from the tariffs and other impacts, you did much better, right?

Yeah, absolutely. You know, the word bubble gets thrown around a lot, and, you know, it gets used usually as a pejorative. But for a lot of people, it can be a virtue. When people talk about a bubble and AI, it very well could be a bubble, but, you know, we have to remember the timing of it. Right. If it's going back to the 90s analogy, if it's just 1997, you know, there's still kind of a couple more years, perhaps. For sure. for the volume plate.

And that's the thing is going to leave it there. Adam Christopher. Thank you. Well, we had record closes for all the major averages and gains for all the major averages this week as well. That does the first year at overtime.