Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime 11/10/25

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That bell marks the end of regulation, Blackstone Ring and the Posenbell for New York Stock Exchange. Radnett doing the honors at the NASDAQ, and it's a strong day for stocks following a down week. The dial up about 400 points, the S&P 500 gaining 1.5%. The NASDAQ up more than 2%. That's its best day since May. Russell 2,000, a 1% gain as well. Chip stocks leading the way having their best day in about a month, some positive comments from Nvidia's CEO Jensen Wong, helping lift the group.

More on that in a moment. In addition to tech, communication services, and consumer discretionary also seeing nice gains. Gold with a strong rebound today and the gold stocks going along with it. Bitcoin also higher, but another down day for ether, though just a small loss now. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Well, a couple of big earnings that we're watching for, Paramount Skydance and CoreWeave.

Paramounts up 45% this year amid lots of merger moves. and Corweave has more than doubled since its IPO in March. And another really hot area of the market has been power production. AI data centers need it. Companies like Exelon can provide it. We'll talk to the CEO about the massive demands for power. But let's start with those big gains for tech. Sima Modi has the details for us.

Hi, Sima. Hey, Morgan, the NASDAG really stole the show today. Tech staging a rebound after the most valuable AI-related names lost about $800 billion in market cap last week. Investors partly have NVIDIA's CEO to thank. Jensen Wong meeting with chip manufacturer, Taiwan semiconductor over the weekend, and reports indicate Wong asked for more wafer production. That sort of soothed fears around a supply constraint. This as the dollar sign tied to the buildout of AI infrastructure, think data centers, power, chips continues to go up. Morgan Stanley said $3 trillion last week. J.P. Morgan today believes it's closer to $5 trillion, as data center and energy capacity demand remains high. Oracle still front and center. Barclays downgrading the stock to underway due to what they call significant debt funding needs going into next year.

The stock, though, did rebound by around 6 tenths of 1%. But not all of software did well. Take a look at Monday.com. Shares falling sharply on a weaker than expected fourth quarter revenue guy. The stock not only fell today, but is now down significantly for the year. John and Morgan? All right. Simomodi, thank you. So does today's big reversal in tech tell us?

that this rally is ready to run again. Well, joining us now is Joe Davis, Vanguard Global Head of Investment Strategy Group, and Kevin Mon, Henion and Walsh, CIO. Great to have you both here. Joe, I'll kick this off with you because we basically closed at session highs for the major averages. Yeah, we had a little bit of a drawdown last week. We took a breather, but now we're back off to the races. Does it continue?

Well, certainly there's a lot of positive tailwinds. I mean, you have an economy that's likely stronger than, Well, we actually don't know what the reporting is, but stronger than, I think, some would suspect. You have earnings that are generally coming in line or stronger than expected. And then you have the AI deployment, which is a powerful tailwind. So, again, there's risks out there. But right now, our theme going into next year is what I would call rational exuberance, at least so far. I worry when there's too much momentum in the market.

Interesting. Kevin, want to get your thoughts? Yeah, I mean. Go ahead. Last week, the markets were climbing that proverbial wall of worries, right? Morgan, with investors having concerns over valuations, AI infrastructure spend, big tech earnings, and the government shutdown. Now we come into today, and one of those worries has seemingly been alleviated with respect to the government shutdown,

and we got some positive comments from Jensen Wong around the AI infrastructure buildout. So I believe we continue to move higher from here through the end of the year, likely in those same areas that have experienced all the growth thus far this year as portfolio managers and retail investors try and play catch up. But there will be more short-term bouts of volatility, and in all likelihood, each bout of volatility will be greeted with more cash coming off the sidelines. Yes, the proverbial buy-the-dip mentality will be back. Okay. Joe, how much has the global story for equity shifted relative to the U.S. as we look ahead to 2026, is there as much room for the U.S. to run as there is for some of those other markets?

Well, again, I think, you know, at least in our view, if you're, I would say the more bullish you are on AI, the more you will start to look outside the tech sector in the U.S. Now, you have to give this one or two years, but it sounds counterintuitive, but it's actually a very strong thesis. And that is if AI starts to transform other industries, if it is as big as many hopes, you're going to see that profitability and that Ernie's expansion start to extend outside of Silicon Valley. You may not see it next month, but that's what we're certainly urging and reminding clients globally from our perspective. And Kevin, speaking of, you like Amphanol Invertive? I do. Think about Amphanol, another ancillary benefactor of all the AI infrastructure spend coming from the industrial sector.

Their stock is up nearly 100% year-to-date. They supply connectors and internet-connect system to data centers. And of course, Verdev supplies the heating and cooling solutions, specifically the cooling solutions that data centers need. Vertive itself is up over 70% themselves near to date. So it's not necessarily only in the semiconductors and chips where you're going to find AI revolution-oriented growth opportunities from here. But pay attention to valuations and don't spend too much

to get some of that future earnings growth potential from some of these AI infrastructure plays, John. Joe, I'm just looking at your notes here where you talk about business investment is providing a backstop. How is it providing a backstop? And what does that mean in terms of how you position yourself, not only for the rest of the year, this year, but now 2026. Well, certainly have to look towards 2026. And again, this year has been a very good one from the equity markets. Business investment, you know, is really focused on the AI space, both the infrastructure and the chips. And that will continue very likely next year.

We talk about there's a small probability, but nondominious, that you could talk about high 2% growth in a GDP from a U.S. economic perspective. So, again, more risks from the labor market in the near term. But I think you've got to start thinking about how does the AI story broaden. There's a lot of good news pricing to the tech stocks. And I understand the interest and the momentum and the excitement. But if AI as transformational as we think it is, you're going to start to see those profit opportunities, expand beyond the tech sector. Kevin, what are the catalysts in the absence of government data and maybe besides the prospect

of the shutdown, Andy? Yeah, one area that I think we should look to at this point in time and everyone's overlooking it right now, and perhaps rightly so, is the health care sector, John, the second best performing sector of October. And there is an AI play to health care as well. Think about the partnership that was announced last week between Eli Lilly and NVIDIA to actually build supercomputers to assist with drug discovery and drug development, AI use for group. I think that's fascinating. And then you look at the M&A opportunities that exist within

healthcare for small-cap biotech. I wouldn't be surprised if Eli Lilly didn't become more inquisitive. And then you hit announcements today from a small-cap company like cogen bioscience, a small-cap biotech company whose stock surge over 130% when they announce positive phase three trial results for their own cancer drugs. So there are, opportunities, believe it or not, outside of technology and outside of the AI revolution in particular. Oh, I believe it. Kevin, thank you. Thank you, Joe, as well. Well, speaking of the shutdown, it is day 41, but it seems like there might be some real progress and hope for a deal to end it. Emily Wilkins is in Washington for us with the latest. Emily.

Hey, Johnny, it might be day 41, but we don't expect this to go on too much longer. We also are now just tearing Trump way in on a bill that the Senate began to advance last night. That was after eight Democrats joined Republicans. Trump said that he would abide by the deal if it passes, and that includes that he cannot fire certain government employees for the next few months. Trump said that the deal is very good, and he goes on to talk a little bit about finding a path forward on health care. So we have Trump sign off there.

And of course, again, last night the biggest hurdle was cleared with those eight Senate Democrats going ahead and voting with Republicans to advance that bill to reopen the government. Now, senators are currently in the process of trying to get an agreement for the timing of the next few votes. Now, that could happen today. As of right now, it is being held up by Senator Rand Paul because there is a provision in that bill that would actually prevent THC products from being sold across the U.S. Rampal wants to make sure that their products can continue to be sold. Look, if they can get an agreement, the shutdown could really end in just a matter of days. Then the attention turns to those health care tax credits. You saw Senator Dick Durbin,

he was one of the eight Democrats who crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans. He said there is a real chance to get something done on extending these tax credits. And he said on the floor today that in his 29 years in Congress, he'd never heard a deal like the one that John Thune made, promising Democrats to vote on whatever bill they wanted to extend the tax credits by mid-December. During the historic roll call last night, I walked across the aisle and met with Senator John Thune, the Republican leader. I told him that I was counting on him to keep his word on this agreement. He assured me he would. Still, any bill that's going to extend those tax credits does face an uphill climb.

Republicans did meet today to discuss a little bit of a path forward, and many of them are looking for some of these wider reforms on. the Affordable Care Act if they're going to go forward. So still a long way to go with those, but it does look like the shutdown could end this week. Speaker Mike Johnson told Republicans on a call today to expect to be back in town for a vote on Wednesday. That means we could have the government open up by Thursday. John? Emily, you look at the top five worst performers in the S&P today. Four out of five are managed healthcare names, and it's tied to this ACA development here. So I guess I'm just curious what the TikTok is on seeing that vote move forward after this government shutdown ends and how likely it is that you actually see some sort of bigger, more meaningful, more longer lasting deal around those subsidies. You know, Morgan, it is a great question because while, of course, there are a number of Republicans who are opposed to advancing those tax credits, a number of them say, look, it's my constituents too who are currently seeing their health care premiums go up and we do need to find.

some sort of path forward. So what Thune said is that by mid-December, he would let Democrats have a vote on whatever bill they wanted to extend those health care tax credits. Democrats are going to be spending the next four weeks working with Republicans trying to find a path forward. But even if something does get through in the Senate, it's a huge question mark what's going to happen in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson has not guaranteed any sort of vote on any sort of Senate bill. And I think right now everyone's kind of looking at Trump and seeing if he's going to weigh in here if he's going to ask Republicans to move forward on these credits. He also does seem focused on getting Americans either high, the savings accounts, health

savings accounts, flexible savings accounts. We know that's something else that Republicans are looking into and might be a key of going forward here. All right. Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Well, shares of Corweeve are all over the place here in overtime. They were up and they were down.

Now they are up again. We're going through the numbers. And coming up, we're going to get an analyst's instant reaction. And you can't keep a hot stock down. Pallon's here leading the S&P 500 today. More on today's rebound coming up with those shares finishing up almost 9% overtime. It's back in two. Welcome back. Corweeer earnings are out.

Christina Parts in Nevelas has the numbers for us. Hi, Christina. Hi, Morgan. So let's talk about first the loss per share, the company posting $0.22. But we're not going to compare because Corwee, which is a GPU as a service company, provided a gap number, but for their revenues, they came in stronger at $1.36 billion for the quarter. Another key metric for this company is their revenue backlog, the RPO, similar to what Oracle calls it. They are saying that they posted $55 billion in the quarter. That is up from $30 billion

just last quarter. So you can see a significant increase there. In terms of guidance, we'll get that on the earnings call. And I just want to end with the non-gap operating margin. That came in at 16%. So higher than the street anticipated at almost 14%. This is the third quarter for this company as a publicly traded firm. Again, Corweave rents out their GPUs. And you can see shares, you know, reacting, well, pretty much flat. But that RPO number is a little bit stronger, but not as high as some byside numbers that are expecting 60 billion that I read from Bank of America. Guys, or John? All right. Christina, thank you. Thanks. Well, don't miss a first on CNBC interview with Corrieve's CEO tomorrow.

at 9 a.m. Eastern on squawk on the street. Now for more on Corrieve, let's bring in Moffat-Nathanson managing director, Nick Deldale. Nick, you've been sort of cautious on this name, given its valuation. What do these numbers do for you? I mean, there's continued strength, but not as much strength as some of the bulls we're hoping for. Yeah, I would generally agree with that take. You know, I think that the numbers were solid. The backlog, you know, coming in at 55 billion, up from 30 billion at the end of the second quarter. Remember, that over the course of the quarter, Corwey've actually disclosed about $20 billion worth of contracts signed with OpenAI and with Meta. So that explains much of what was in the backlog

numbers. They signed some in addition to that, but I think that was largely as expected. I think the other thing that I thought was interesting in the report were the operating income margins. You know, last quarter there were concerns that Corrie was going to underperform on that front largely because of pulling forward some deliveries. There are usually OPEX that you may incur before delivering GPUs to a customer. I think the fact that they did a bit better than expected this quarter was a positive. But I'd say in totality, probably solid results. I would say the stock in general embeds very high expectations. You need to do better than solid to get the stock moving. Sure. So I wonder what happens to CoreWeave in a scenario where there's a hiccup in

the strength of AI demand. Because you've got the hypers out there, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, that have their own data centers, sort of create their own demand. They're fine no matter what, but if there's not as much overage to suggest growth for the likes of a CoreWeave, are investors exposed if they're in that name? Yes, yes. Over time, like you were saying, John, Corweave, a portion of their business model is basically providing swing capacity to hyperscalers, you know, to the extent that Microsoft, for example, can't bring on as much capacity as it would like in a short period of time, they may lean on someone like CoreWeave to help out. I think, you know, over a given period

of time, remember that CoreWeev's contracts with these players tend to be multi-year in nature. You might sign a four, five, six-year contract. So, you know, if AI demand were to pull back some, the contracted revenue that Corweave has would presumably not be affected. But to the extent that this is a growth stock where people are expecting continued growth in their backlog, that would obviously have meaningful implications for the multiple. I want to see a revenue backlog that has almost doubled. Obviously, at least in the near term here, there's a huge amount of demand that's outstripping capacity. So how meaningful is it that this core scientific deal has fallen apart since that would have brought

more infrastructure online more quickly? Yeah, great question. So I think what core scientific really would have done for core reef is give them access to more capacity faster. So remember, Core Scientific was a crypto miner that was basically really. repurposing a lot of its power capacity to support high-performance computing workloads, so basically building data centers. Corrieve was its first, and at least to date, only customer along those loans. And I think Core Scientific was probably holding back some of its capacity,

some of its pipeline to try to diversify its business across other users. If CoreWeave had been able to acquire Core Scientific, it would have been able to grab that pipeline for itself and maybe accelerate its growth. I think without Core Scientific, you know, the company we need to lead on, you know, other partners, other channels to really try to fill that pipeline, like the deals that it's done with other crypto miners or one that it recently announced with poolside as good examples. Okay. A lot of core analysis here. This shares a core we've down about one and a half percent. Nick Deldeo. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having it. Paramount Skydance earnings are out as well. Julie Borson has those numbers.

Hi, Julia. Hey, Morgan. This is the first earnings in the combined company from the combined company Paramount Skydance. The company are reporting an aggregate of 6.7 billion in netted revenues for the entire quarter and an aggregate adjusted loss of 12 cents per share. That's for the Paramount Global Company pre-merger as well as the period in which the companies were combined. TV revenue a little bit lighter than expected, but direct-to-consumer revenue coming in stronger than expected. The company also guiding for 2026 for total revenue of $30 billion, saying that will be led to. by a healthy acceleration and D to C revenue

with global profitability. Company also announcing that they've increased the run rate efficiency target from $2 billion to at least $3 billion, saying about two-thirds of that is attributed to non-labor and most of their labor efficiencies, otherwise known as layoffs, have already been realized.

And they also say they expect adjusted obadi of $3.5 billion in 2026, saying that'll be driven by progress against their increased efficiencies plans, as well as investments, they're making in the business across content and strategy. It's been just about three months since this deal went through and David Allison has been very busy. I'm sure we'll hear more about that in the call. Back over to you, Morgan. All right, Julia Borson, thank you with those shares up about

2.5% right now. Well, President Trump's thinking the health insurance stocks today with some strongly worded social media posts. We're going to have the full story coming up. And the president also has a plan to make homes more affordable and therefore more accessible. His plan, a 50-year-more Could it really happen? We'll explain next on Overtime. Welcome back to Overtime. President Trump going after health insurers in a series of social media posts, saying hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding goes to, quote, money-sucking health insurers, also calling them Fat Cat Insurance Companies. Oscar Health, Molina Health, Centine, all down big, smaller losses for United Health and CVS, which owns Aetna.

Well, the Trump administration floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage in a social media post over the weekend. Diana Oleg is here to break down what that would mean for potential homebuyers. Hi, Di. Hey, Morgan. Yeah, the purpose of a longer-term mortgage would be to lower the monthly payment for homeowners because the longer the term of the loan, the smaller the principal needed each month to pay it off in full. So using the latest median price of a home, which is $415,200 and the current interest rate of $6,000,000,000, and the current interest rate of $6. I did some math. Now, on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down, a 50-year fixed would give you a $233 monthly savings over a 30-year fix. That's just on principal and interest. Homeowners,

however, would not build equity as quickly because, again, their principal payments would be smaller. And the amount of interest paid to lenders would be 40% higher because of how long that is. The real question is, can Fannie and Freddie even do this? Now, analysts say it is possible, But a 50-year mortgage does not currently meet the definition of a qualified mortgage under the Dodd-Frank Act, which provides investors with a backup from Fannie and Freddie if the loan goes bad. But regulators were given the authority to change that in order to ensure mortgage availability. They'd need Congress to do that, so that could take up to a year. Really, bottom line, we still just need more homes in order to bring home prices down. Back to you guys.

Diana, a question about this. To me, a 50-year-fixed mortgage sounds like renting, but worse. Because in the first many years of a mortgage, you're mostly paying interest and you're not building equity. So, you know, unless the value of that home absolutely skyrockets, you're not really going to be able to build wealth when you want to move into that next home, are you? No. And in fact, that's why some people today called it kind of like an interest-only loan, because as you said, that's what you're really doing over time. because most people aren't going to keep a home for 50 years anyway. They don't even keep a home for 30 years.

And plus, we don't even know what the interest rate would be for a 50-year fixed because if you look at a 30 versus a 15, a 15-year fixed interest rate is actually 66 basis points lower right now than a 30-year, which implies that a 50-year would be an even higher interest rate. So like you said, you're paying rent. All right, Dian Oleg, thank you. We've got more, yes, we have more on Paramount Skydance, So we're going to go to Julia Borson right now for that.

Julia. Hey, Morgan, that's right. CEO David Ellison in his letter to shareholders talking about prioritizing efficiency and scalability, putting technology at the center of what they do. And he talks about conducting a comprehensive strategic review of their assets to ensure continued focus on their priorities. And as part of this, they talk about some divestitures, saying they've already divested assets in Argentina, which operates TV stations.

and they're also in the process of divesting Chile Vision in Chile, which they expect to complete in the first quarter of 26. They say these divestitures identified as non-corridor future growth will streamline operations and reduce our workforce by approximately 1,600 additional employees. This all plays into the narrative of creating efficiencies and focus across Paramount Skydance, shares now up about 8.5%. Back to you. All right, Julia, thank you. Well, stocks rebounding today likely helped by a possible end to the government shutdown. down or are stocks simply following the same old buy the dip script? Mike Santoli is going to join us next to break it down.

And the problems of some farmers might not amount to a hill of soybeans, but those farmers caught in the middle of a trade war are taking a new step to sell their beans. We're going to have that story. Welcome back to overtime. Big game for stocks today after a down week. The Dow up 381.1. points, the NASDAG gaining 2.1⁄4%. Invita, among the biggest winners today, posting its best day since April. Palantir, the best performer in the S&P 500 today, up nearly

9%, but not enough to recover last week's losses. And check out the hot data storage base. Western Digital, Seagate, and Sandisk, all up more than 5%, adding to huge gains so far this year. And CoreWeave posting a net loss, revenue of $1.36 billion, better than expected. Operating margin also better than expected, but the stock is down about 1.5%. While the markets did see a bounce back today, the makeup of the bounces showing a very similar pattern to those of the past year, is that telling us something about the quality of this rally. Well, Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, is here, and he's on the case. Mike.

For sure, Morgan, I would say it tells us something about the character of the rally. I'm not sure it's about necessarily a value judgment about the quality, but you can see it here. This is over the last year, NASDAQ 100, up 21%, the equal-weighted S&P, only up 2.5, and that's after being up a half percent today. That's the equal-weighted consumer discretionary sector as well, up a little more than 3%. So today's dynamic as well, just John just said, NASDAQ up 2 and a quarter percent, the equal-weighted S&P up half a percent, the broad S&P up a percent and a half. So it still remains kind of a winner-take-most type of market. Maybe it's understandable, though, because that's where most of the revenue, profit growth, and investment is happening, is in those select names. So again, maybe it was the government shutdown, perhaps going to end in a few

days that was the catalyst, changed the market's mood ring, emboldened the dip buyers, something like that. But the stocks that performed best did not match up to those who were most exposed to the macro effects of a government shutdown. Take a look at a longer-term view of this massive tech investment trend. So this is tech investment cap-ex as a percentage of GDP going all the way back like 60 years. You see the big upturn here. Now, as many have said, not comparable yet to what we saw in the late 90s in terms of the dominance of tech investment as a percentage of the overall economy. But this number is tech investment excluding the MAG 7 stocks. Well, the MAG 7 stocks are, you know, 35% of the S&P. They're all multi-trillion dollar market

cap. So maybe it's to be expected that they sort of punch above their weight here. But it does show you again, the narrowness of this. level of activity and excitement that's being displayed in both the economy and the markets. Yeah, that chart really says it all. Ahead of today's rebound, I was reading that the average stock in the S&P 500 is 22% below it's 52-week high. Materials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, communication services, all at, you know, negative 25% or greater.

And that actually, interestingly, and maybe this goes back to that chart indirectly, utilities have been holding up the best. For sure. So utilities are kind of riding along to a fair degree, especially unregulated ones, with the AI trade. It has been a very selective market. You can maybe say it that way in an objective neutral fashion. There was an unusually large number of new 52-week lows, given that the market was all of, you know, three or four percent from its all-time high at its worst last week. And it does sort of show you this winnowing effect out there. Now, the positive side of that, if there is one, is that most of the market is not overbought or overheated. It's really just the big names that are making it look like maybe things have gotten ahead of itself on evaluation at a technical basis at times. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you.

Always great to get your context, your insights. Up next, we'll head live to Shanghai, where American soybean farmers are trying to save businesses that have been devastated by the ongoing trade war. Plus, Cisco doubling the performance of the Dow so far this year. And coming up, Fast Money's guy Adami is going to tell us how he's trading Cisco ahead. of its earnings on Wednesday. We're right back. Welcome back to overtime.

Two commercial stocks, moving on results right now. AST Space Mobile and Rocket Lab. AST Space Mobile missing on earnings and revenue. EPS coming in at a loss of 45 cents per share that's versus estimates of a loss of 22 cents. Revenue of $14.7 million. That was a miss too. The company reiterating its second half 2025 revenue guidance,

though, and saying it's on track for five launches by the end of Q1, 2020. It's expecting launches every one to two months on average to reach a goal of 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026. This is really what investors are focused on is deployment of that constellation and how quickly it can happen. That's why you're seeing shares up 1% right now. As for Rocket Lab, beating on results, reporting a loss of $0.3 per share versus estimates of $0.10. Revenue coming in at $155 million versus estimates of $152 million. It posted record gross margins.

and it's on track for a record number of launches for 2025, also giving some updates on its neutron rocket as well. You can see that stock popping up 7% right now. Yeah, well, closer to the ground, literally, U.S. soybean farmers are in Shanghai this week, trying to convince importers to begin buying their products again. This year, soybean exports to China have dropped significantly as a result of the ongoing trade war, and some farmers have gone from 40% of their exports going to China to zero. Unis Yuni Unives into that for this week's China Lens. Illinois soybean farmer Scott Gaffner has come to Shanghai to save his China business.

We want to make sure that our soybeans are getting export to China because it's a very important market to us. Gaffner is part of a delegation of American farmers who visited an import fair here after President Trump met China's Xi Jinping in South Korea in part to reboot stalled U.S. soybean sales. Amid the current trade war, the Chinese, specifically targeted U.S. soybeans to pressure President Trump. That caused major financial problems for American farmers, like Mr. Gaffner. Gaffner sold 40% of his soybean exports to China when he arrived in Shanghai, zero. Normally, whenever we're combined in the soybeans, we're going to take them right to the river, down the river to Louisiana, and then shipped out to China. But with China not buying any soybeans, we're taking them right to our beans.

bins and we're storing them in our bins. Even before the trade war, the Chinese have been buying more from other countries like Brazil and Argentina to diversify away from the United States. After Trump's talks with Xi, there's hope business may be back. The White House says China will buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of this year and 25 million for each of the next three years. That's still down from the near 27 million China bought in 2024. China has yet to confirm the numbers. We'd like to have just kind of a continuation of smooth sailing. Do I think that's realistic?

I don't know. These are two big, powerful countries, a lot of issues. That uncertainty is typical of the whole U.S.-China relationship. Is the relationship back to normal? Depending on how you define normal, the two sides have done enough to stabilize the relationship for the time being. The structural differences to remain.

Gaffner is still optimistic. Towards the end of his trip, he got a call, his farm sold one shipment. We like no trade war because hopefully that levels the plane field and we just want to do business. American soybean farmers are still disadvantaged. The Chinese have lifted some retaliatory tariffs on certain agricultural products, but they maintain a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans. just means that the U.S. soybeans are still more expensive compared to other countries. Guys?

Eunice, it really seems like the soybeans and rare earths have been these two points of potential leverage that China has been using. And as you implied in the piece, it doesn't seem likely that this is going to go back up to the exact same levels as before, in part because, hey, making friends with Brazil is nice, no? Exactly. And I think that, you know, we are seeing. some movement by the Chinese, including today, whereby they're following the steps of the meeting

in Busan. So there has been some easing of restrictions on rare earths, as you mentioned, also suspension of port fees. But I think what's important for investors to know is that the reality is that this agreement is really more of an informal arrangement. And so because of that, it wouldn't be out of the pattern of Chinese behavior to take advantage of that. And so if they don't like something that Washington is doing, or in particular, President Trump, then they could easily change course in the other direction. Because from the Chinese perspective, President Trump is moving in what they would believe is the right path. And it appears that they've been able to figure out which pressure points, like rare earths, like soybeans,

would keep him on that right path from the Chinese perspective. All right. Yunus Yun, Yun, thank you. Always good to get the perspective. Well, Disney has been dead money so far this year. Up next, Fast Money's Guy Adami tells us whether the company's earnings this week can help turn the mouse house around. Welcome back to overtime. Some headline earnings coming this week, including two Dow components. Cisco reports on Wednesday. Disney and Applied Materials are out on Thursday.

Let's set you up ahead of those with us as Fast Money Traders, CNBC contributor Guy, Adami. What's up, Guy? Hello, John. How are you? I'm good. I'm good. But how is Cisco? Stock's up 21% year-to-date. Signed deals with Nvidia and Microsoft. About a third of this one is software revenue. But what would you buy it for? Does it really have what it takes to power higher? Networking. If you look at, and networking and margins and the fact that they've sort of reinvented themselves, if you look, I think we took out like the 98-99 highs. So this has been a stock that's been lower, left, up, right? Now,

Here we are at all-time highs effectively. I think valuation is still okay. I'll say this, despite the run, I think valuation and the business that they're in and the network in the margins suggest that this stock can go higher from here. So I think you stayed long, Cisco, into the print. Okay. How about Disney, guys?

Oh, hello, Morgan. Hello, I didn't know you were there. I thought it was me and John. Hello. I was waiting in the wings. Okay, so let's talk about Disney, because those shares are flat on the year. This quarter will be the last one

that the company is going to provide quarterly streaming subscriber numbers. Do you buy into the print, especially after what we just saw with Paramount Skydance earlier this hour? I want to say yes, but my instinct suggests no. I mean, we've seen bounces before in Disney, but pull up a longer, your crack staff there in EC, pull up a long-term chart in Disney. And stock has been nowhere on a tape that's done extraordinarily well. I mean, think about what Netflix has done over a similar time period, and then look at Disney. I mean, they're sort of meandering here. And then if you look at a consumer, which I believe is strapped at best, and, you know, they're going to, they're not going to win to that.

And the flip side of the coin is if you're seeing slowdown in Netflix in terms of growth, stands the reason that Disney's going to feel the same pain. So as much as I'd say, you've got to buy Disney on valuation. I've been saying that for years, and it's been the wrong thing to do. Ouch. Yeah. Well, no, ouch. I mean, I don't know.

Ouch, I guess. I mean, it sounds like, ouch, if you've been buying it for years and the mouse is not finding the cheese. Well, no. Apply materials. On the other side of that, surging this year as investors pile into AI place, stock hovering near its all-time highs. But semiconductor equipment can be streaky, guy. Very streaky. And here we are, John.

I'm glad you said it because I'm looking at my little Google machine. Go back to June of last year and see where the stock traded up to. And on fast money, we've been saying this for a while. We thought the stock could basically trend higher into earnings, flirt with that $255, 260 prior all-time. high and then maybe create a bit of a double top. So I think you sort of squeeze a little bit of juice that's left in Amat to the upside and then do something right ahead of earnings, whether it's trim position, take off a quarter or a half, do something, but move your feet.

Valuation is not a concern, but you know what? We've seen that before. And the problem with this name, as you just said, the peaks and troughs in Amat over the last couple of years have been significant. And I don't love the fact that it's running up into earnings. So stay long into the print, pull the rip cord right before. Do you think we're going to see a little more consolidation here, a little more market churn, or is the easier, softer, way higher? Today suggests that tomorrow's going to be November 11th.

So the calendar suggests we're through earnings. Yeah, we have Nvidia, a couple names that we just talked about, but the calendar is favorable to the broader market. And don't label me a bull. I'm just trying to say, momentum is on your side right now. And when you see what the market did today, when you see the race and the sort of the people glomming on to these names seemingly not for, focused on valuation, although at some point they should be, suggest we have more room here. I thought the VIX was going to be a story in November. It was for a couple days. I think it's going to come back, but right now you trade the momentum.

Okay. Guy Adami, great to see you. By the way, you didn't wish Melissa happy birthday. Oh, you did? I did. Oh, Melissa said you did. I did. I didn't do it publicly on TV. Happy birthday a week ago, Melissa. Forget about the public. That's when it's supposed to be. All right. Guy, thank you. You can catch Guy and the rest of the fast. money traders and Miss Melissa Lee at 5 p.m. Eastern. They're going to be speaking with Jeffrey's

chief market strategist and CNBC contributor David Zervos at the top of the hour. All right. Well, up next here on Overtime, the CEO of Utility Giant Exelon, whose stock has been significantly outperforming the sector over the last year on the outlook for energy prices and regulation. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the Closing Belt Overtime podcast on your favorite podcast app. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Utilities, the third best performing sector so far this year, boosted by AI's voracious appetite for energy. Now companies are spending money to upgrade infrastructure and keep up with AI demand. So what does that mean for our grid system for energy prices?

Well, joining us now is Calvin Butler, Exelon CEO, with our Brian Sullivan. Brian. John, thank you very much. Calvin, good to see you. He is the CEO and president of Exelon and the chair of the EEI conference of which we were at. So great way to wrap up the day. You are big that John mentioned infrastructure on the way in. That's your world. And you've been very, very vociferous about a coming likely shortage of power places around the United States. Talk to us a little more about the supply demand imbalance because that's a scary thought.

Absolutely. So first off, thanks for having me and thank you for being here. What we are trying to do is bring attention that we have, increased load, increased demand like we've never seen in the last 30 to 40 years. And we continue to play by the same rules in which has been governing in our industry for the last 50. So we have to change the landscape. So especially within the PJM marketplace where the utilities do not own generation, that's where you're seeing the greatest imbalance.

So for those vertically integrated utilities around 30, 40% of the country, no issue, because those utilities are stepping up. But where you see the utility is not owning generation, supply is not showing up to meet that demand, and who's filling it most are our customers because of affordability issues. Yeah, and PJM, the grid operator, they kind of did about a year ago, whenever it was. It put out a report kind of late on a Friday night about basically there's probably going to be power shortages over the next few years. To me, that sounds like maybe not crisis, but not far off. Yeah.

What are we doing about this? Well, we're doing a few things. One, PJM recognizes its shortfalls, and they're really trying to work internally to focus on it. But more importantly, the governors across the states of PJM are saying, look, we've got to deal with a couple of things right away. What are we got to do to get more generation into the supply man? That's one. Two, what are we going to do with our constituents, our customers who are having affordability issues every day? So what you've seen is that the governors have banded together to submit proposals to help PJM,

a.m. through this process to really focus on short, mid and long-term problem. This is not something that's going to be solved over night, but everyone has to lean in. I'm not a genius, although sometimes I pretend to be on television. But I do know this. Electricity in many ways is a commoditized product, right? The power that's making these lights, whatever. If you have more of something, the price goes down. That's it. Okay, you don't produce power, you distribute it. How do we get more power so we don't have these AI-related shortfalls? And people's bills go up more because people already, to your point, suffering affordability crisis across all aspects of their lives. So let me be very clear.

Data centers and AI are part of the reason. That's not it, though. So you have onshoreing of manufacturing. You've got the electrification of everything all taking place at the same time, creating this perfect storm. And what you also have is that we have a generator base that's content to keeping the load where it is because they're maximum. the dollar value. So what we're proposing is that why not let your utilities get back into the generation business? The states control it, manage this. You have control, cost certainty, and clarity on what's going to be done where and when. Would you build a nuclear plan if you could?

I wouldn't build a nuclear plan. But what I could do is lean in on combined cycle gas turbines. What I could do is build community solar. What I could do is own battery storage anything to help bring this load additional supply to the mix and drive progress and what again it's going to take some time but we need to start every day all day to really work it's like air traffic right the government shut down i was at the airport yesterday i'm lucky to take off like we kind of wait till it's like this crisis level for politicians both parties by the way spring into action right i don't want to get there with power because lights and heat are kind of important yes they are and we've got examples of when it didn't work and no one thinks about it until those lights don't come on so we're

working with them and our governors are responsive to it and they're listening but we need to create the sense of urgency we do certainly so uh you're out here kind of sounding maybe not an alarm yeah but definitely a warning bell Calvin butler really appreciate your time thank you very much also the chair of EEI which is why we are here Morgan but to your point earlier today it's about affordability we all want chat GPT but i'm not sure we want our electric bills to soar so we can use more of their apps it's a complicated and complex situation but for another day We'll send it back to you. Well, great job digging into all of it, Brian Sullivan.

Appreciate it. And our thanks to Calvin Butler as well. Well, tomorrow on closing bill over time, we're going to be speaking exclusively with Brandon Lutnik. That's Cantor Fitzgerald's new chairman and CEO in all things markets and the bank's all in push on crypto. We'll also have on Riot CEO, Jason Les, on the future of Bitcoin. They have a big conference down in Florida this week, so we'll be focused on that. Yeah. Yeah, and a lot of questions to ask about these markets and this AI demand that continues to power all of it affecting every kind of stock, it seems.

Yeah, and I'd note equity markets are open tomorrow, but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. We did have a strong start to the week for the major averages, but that does it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts right now.