Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 11/21/25

Episode Date: November 21, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And that is the end of regulation, hearing impaired children ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange and the men's health awareness group, Movember, known for their sweet, sweet mustaches, doing the honors at the NASDAQ. It is a strong end to a week week. Right now, you've got a nice Friday rally rebounding from yesterday's big crypto and invidia-driven sell-off the Dow of more than 500 points, the S&P 500 up about 1.2, the NASDAQ, the same, but none today doing better. than the Russell 2000's small cap soaring just under 3%. Here's the bad news. Even those gains, not enough to wipe out this week's losses. The NASDAQ down 2.5%. In fact, headed for the worst month in six months,

and with this week's drop in NASDAQ has actually fallen three weeks in a row. But it's Friday. Let's stay positive, literally, because today all 11 S&P 500 sectors, higher health care, materials, consumer discretionary, doing the best of the bunches. And here is a great, dare we say, random but interesting stat for you. The first pharmaceutical company ever to hit the $1 trillion valuation mark. It is the pride of Indianapolis.

Eli Lilly up again today, and that's enough to pop it over $1 trillion. One thing, not higher, Bitcoin. Many of the crypto stocks, Bitcoin lower right now, although well above the $80,000 it hit earlier today. Remember, Bitcoin, folks, was $125,000 just six weeks ago. All right, welcome, everybody. That is your scorecard on Wall Street. I'm hosting closing bell overtime with my friend who you can see split screen.

Morgan Brennan, host of this show live at the CNBC CEO Council in probably just awful Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Morgan, what's coming up? Oh, I mean, the weather here. It's a real bummer compared to New York. I'm at the soap by center, Brian. It's home of TGL. We've got a couple of sports team owners for the show that you may know, but they have also made their money in business, and they're going to give us insights into those industries in the state of the economy. First up, Jim Crane. He owns the Houston Astros. He's also Crane Worldwide Logistics. What are people buying?

Where is it coming from? Where is it going? Plus, we get a view of the real estate world with Stephen Ross, founder of the related companies and now related Ross here in Florida. he's buying in Florida. He's selling in New York. And on Sundays, he is rooting for his Miami Dolphins. So, Brian, we've got a huge lineup this hour. Well, we'll see in just a couple of minutes. Thank you very much, Morgan Brennan. Let's start, though, with the markets. Rebounding in a big way from yesterday's sell-off. Christina Ports and Evelace, looking at some of the biggest of the big movers on this Friday. Christina. Thanks, Brian. Well, let's start in New York Fed to President John Williams, who said the Fed still has room to lower rates in the short-term I bring that up, even with the labor market weakness, really posing a bigger risk to inflation.

But that helps lift not only the markets, but the Russell 2000, you mentioned, which closed 3% higher today on really hopes for a rate relief. Healthcare was the second best performing sector, but the rotation into healthcare isn't just about being defensive. It's also a value play. Why do I say that? At the start of November, healthcare traded around 17 times forward earnings compared to tech at 30 times. The health care ETF, as you can see now, hitting a new 52-week high given that rotation. Speaking of technology, Alphabet, the standout mag-7 name this week on pace for eight straight positive months. Shares actually soared earlier this week after glowing, dare I say, glowing reviews for the new Gemini AI model.

InVitya, though, sold off this morning, then turned positive on news that President Trump is considering allowing the company to sell more advanced chips to China. But you can see if on the week it was a little bit lower. One name not catching a break is Oracle, closing around 6% lower and below $200 at $198.76 for the first time since early June. The stock has succumbed to fears of a potential AI bubble, in part because of its sizable debt load. Ryan? Christina, we'll see in a few minutes. Christina, thank you very much. Now let's turn our focus to Bitcoin, which some believe is leading the selloff, but similar to stocks.

It seems to have found maybe a bottom today. Segalo is tracking crypto for us and joins us now. McKenzie. Hey, Brian, so we started the week talking about the death cross, that closely watched technical signal that flashes when short-term momentum drops below the longer-term trend. It's bearish, and historically, if Bitcoin doesn't bounce back within seven days, it tends to see another leg lower before any real recovery. We are now on day five, and Bitcoin is down 11% since the cross formed. Not a great sign.

Trading activity? Also drying up. Open interest in perpetual futures, a key measure of leverage, has dropped 35% since October. That means that there is less speculative capital in the system, making the market more fragile. Fewer leverage bets means every sell order hits harder. And momentum, it's clearly fading. City says that large wallets are trimming positions and dormant coins are starting to move a signal that even the long-term holders, those so-called whales, are losing conviction in the trade.

Meanwhile, strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is trading close to the value of its holdings. There's been speculation about forced selling, but Bernstein says that fear, it's actually overblown. Strategy isn't selling, and its debt isn't callable until 2029. Brian? Mackenzie, thank you very much. Well, today's rebound also being helped, probably from Federal Reserve official John Williams. Williams spoke and sounded as if he is open to more rate cuts. Let's get now to Rick Santelli for a closer look at how some of Williams's remarks played out in the bond market. They certainly gave it a tailwind in terms of the buying early coming into our time zone. And all the rest, well, it certainly seems as though whether it was the stats out today,

and it certainly seems though the service sector, ISM, PMIs, aren't exactly racing ahead. It was a very much mixed picture regarding the economy from that perspective. And if you look at a two-day-of-tenure note yields, you can clearly see that we've covered the entire range of November in two sessions, basically going from 415, 416 on the top yield, down to the 404 on the bottom. And if you look at a chart for one month and realize two-thirds of that is the month of November, should we close under 4.07 percent, that would be a four-week low close going back to the end of October and the lowest yield close of the month of November for 10 year. And it's really getting close.

We're hovering right at that level. We closed at 415 last week. And finally, here's what was majorly affected by Williams' comments that were just referenced by Brian. That's a two-week chart of December Fed Fund Futures. And you see how it raced up on the right side? That was sparked by Williams' comments. So over two weeks, we've gone from over 60% on the far left of the chart down to yesterday in the mid-20 percentile, right back to 63%. So right now it's pricing in that 25 base point cut.

But the volatility last couple of days should teach us a lesson. What's priced in today could disappear tomorrow. Brian, back to you and have a good weekend. You have a great weekend as well, Rick. Thank you very much. All right. So, folks, how should you view the rally today? Well, the market down about 1% for the week, but that's because we had a huge day.

Yesterday was a massive reversal. Freedom Capital Markets, Chief Global Strategist, and CNBC contributor, Jay Woods, on set with us here. did we breach any critical, tactical levels today? We tested and we held. That's a good sign. It's a great sign. It's a great sign. Now we need confirmation. That could come in the form of a retest.

The 6550 to 6,500 level, and the SAP 500 was what we were watching. It got just a scosh below at 6538 yesterday, and then we got above it. So it's not going to be to the exact number, but it was that level. And that, to us, was a side of relief, especially going into a weekend, getting through an options. expiration, now going into a slow holiday week where there could be some rookies on the desk, so we'll see what happens. But we're through the Fed speak. We kind of have more clearance or more guidance as to a potential cut. We're still going to debate that for the next three weeks. But it's just a side of relief. And then Envidia was the one that we haven't stopped talking about.

Oh, yeah, we haven't. And some people said Nvidia was the reason yesterday. I think it was more Bitcoin related, maybe some other companies. What's your take on what happened yesterday? And how it flowed and impacted into today. Yeah, well, I'll take it from the trader point of view, first of all. That gap higher on great news. It wasn't the news. We know things are going extremely well, but it opened up 6% when a nickel higher than reversed. We've seen Nvidia do this historically.

It happened back in August of 2023. Their best earnings ever at the time. The stock gapped over 20 when up a nickel finished even, and then it consolidated. It does tend to have huge moves on earnings. Yes. Then it digest gains. So we've had a tremendous run up again, and now we have this backdrop of, you know, Michael Berry, the AI story is over, and a little angst in this market because we do have Fed meeting coming up, and people are worried that this AI narrative has changed. I don't think...

Hasn't? No, it hasn't. But the winners are not being rewarded for winning, and that's where you're seeing a Palantir who crush it on earnings getting pulled back to where? Key moving averages, the 200 day today. But that, down 28% from the peak, a little overdone, given the earnings results. So what you do in cases like this where there's uncertainty, you try to find levels. And to me, we held 175, and I think now what we're going to see in NVIDIA is a little consolidation phase between 175, 195, we get some good China news, like you guys broke at 2 o'clock. Goodish.

Goodish, yes. That was the best news that China may. White House may sell a couple-year-old Nvidia chips to China. It's like day old bread. I know. You like that. Thank you for watching Power Lunch 2 p.m. Eastern. You referenced confirmation. We need confirmation, how and when. When will we know we get that confirmation? Well, we don't get it. No, sadly, it takes time. You know, we've had a major washout in Bitcoin. I believe Bitcoin and the speculative stocks are what really caused a little bit of the fear in this market.

We talk about consumer sentiment. It is at the lowest point this year. We live through Liberation Day. It's lower than that. I talked to you and Kelly back then and said, this is a contrarian. indicator. The 10-day moving average, 80% of the S&P 500, no one looks at this, but 80% of the S&P 500 was below their 10-day moving average, meaning it was drastically oversold, and now we're getting a snapback. The other three times were below it. You're right. Nobody looks at that. Why are you looking at it? Well, because I try to look at things that random but interesting stats for you. Others are looking at, yeah. But no, when you want to see things that are overdone, and we're seeing that in this market, and there's a lot of fear and anxiety, and that's when, you know, the people

that have done this a while want to step in and see where are the bargains and where may be some these stocks that may not come back. These quantum stocks have a little ways to go. The Oklo's of the world, technically, that could go down into the high 60s, low 70s. Wow. Yeah, that would be a big hit for Oaklo and maybe the nuclear complex. We'll talk more about energy in a few minutes. Jay Woods, thank you very much. Really appreciate it. Get home safely. All right, you know where there's not a lot of fear and anxiety at the CNBC CEO Council event on the mean streets? of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, or Morgan Brennan is. Morgan. Yeah, I have the best live shot of the day, Brian. Thank you.

Joining me now here from the CNBC CEO Council for an exclusive interview, Jim Crane. He is chairman of Crane Worldwide Logistics, which is involved in a whole host of industries, autos, energy, hospitality, life sciences, more. He is also the owner of the Houston Astros and serial entrepreneurs. Great to have you here on set. Welcome. Thank you for having us. You're in the freight business. How's the freight business right now? Freibbon has been pretty good this year.

It's driven a lot by high tech. A lot of the high tech folks building data centers, servers, racks, all the equipment associated with that, it's flying around all over the world. The rest of the industry is, you know, a little down, not much, you know, a point or two. But everybody's adapted to the tariffs and all the things they needed to do to adjust to that. And I think things are smoothing out. Yeah, and I was just going to ask about the impact of all the volatility we have seen this year with trade

tariffs and what that's meant? Well, it was just the unknown. A lot of times we weren't sure. We talked about things the government was going to do, and then some of it changed. And once they locked in, you know, you've got to get all those adjustments made for people that are buying the goods and how that affect their costs. And quite frankly, you know, it will go down to the consumer at some point. There's some things they can do.

They can put it, you know, in a bonded warehouse and not pay the tariff until they take it out. You know, they can send stuff over and bring it back and get some recovery that way. But for the most part, if it goes up, it's going to hit the bottom line somewhere. I mean, you're on the front lines of trade flows. Have you seen a shift in terms of where things are going and coming? You know, Asia is still heavy on the tech side. But, you know, the general industries are good. The oil and gas is kind of steady.

Pharmaceuticals are still good. Retail's held its own, but nobody's blowing the doors off, right? right now. On the consumer side, we're heading into holiday season. There's been a lot of talk about a pull forward and a buildup in inventories and maybe a replenishment after the new year. What are your thoughts? Well, it always gets pulled forward.

This year was a little difficult. You may see some more late stuff coming in now. If it's not here by now, you're probably not going to see it on the shelves. So most of it's been done, and we did see a lot of activity, a huge September across the board for most people in our business. How do you think this sets us up for 2026? 26. You know, it's a question mark. The market's a little rocky. I think if things settle down a little bit, I'm always positive. I think there's still a lot of big plans. The tech thing's just getting started, the data centers and all of the money that's being raised to go in there. So I think we've got a few bright years with that big push behind us. But after that, you don't know. And you don't know when that's going to settle down either. I want to shift gears here because you are the owner of the Houston Astros, obviously hugely successful.

baseball team and a franchise that you've rebuilt. Economics around baseball can be challenging, or so I've heard. Just want to get a little bit of the insights from you in terms of lessons learned and how you've been able to rebuild this franchise. Well, you really got to try to keep your revenue, keep your fans happy. That's winning. This year we didn't make the playoffs for the first time in eight years. But we had a good team, had some injuries, so it doesn't always go your way.

I think baseball's in good shape. You saw a great World Series. You know, there's more fans, more content, and I think there's plans in the future to smooth out some of those issues. So I'm very positive, you know, that the business will continue to grow, and, you know, we need to catch up with football. In terms of catching up with football, what does that mean for valuations for baseball? Well, if we can get their valuations, we'll be all right. But I tell people, you know, evaluations are great, but it really is not money in the bank, so you really can't spend the valuation unless you sell the team. And so we're not interested in doing that.

Yeah, a lot of focus on labor negotiations and possibility of a salary cap. All that's been talked. I think that won't hit the table until the end of this year. You know, but everybody's planning. I'm sure both sides are working hard. I just came from an oldest meeting and everything was positive. We're talking about here at this council event, we're talking about the business of sports. We're talking about the experience economy.

You have a key vantage point, both as a sports team owner, sports team owner on that side and then from the freight side in terms of the goods that are moving around the world as well. What are you seeing? And I guess is it changing? Well, I think this was a pretty good year. I think, you know, all of it connects together. If people have jobs and economy's good, they'd go to more sporting events, spend more money at the ballpark buy an extra jersey. So we're kind of the last part of it there. We see it on the front end when the car goes moving and things are accelerating. And, you know, people are ordering more and the inventories are high.

So you can kind of back all the way down to the consumer and that's who pays the bills. And, you know, if they've got good jobs and the economy is rolling, like I think it will continue to do. And I think we're in good shape. Inflation stays sticky here or do you think consumer continues to buck that trend as wages grow? Well, I think the industry rates going down a little bit will help, but the prices are going up on everything. it's pretty amazing, you know, the cost of building and the cost of even moving the cargo and that sort of thing has continued to go up. So, you know, we've got to get that under control, and I think it's not out of line yet,

but if we keep it there, we'll be in good ship next year. Jim Crane, appreciate the time and the insights. Thank you very much for having me. Brian, I'll send it back over to you in studio. All right, and Morgan, we'll look forward to another big guest at a couple of minutes. Morgan and Brennan, thank you very much. We're not done here on overtime coming up while AI stocks. rallied back in a big way today.

Many of the energy companies being counted on to power the AI did not. We'll talk more about that and this huge gap in power, which may be bigger than you think. The numbers next. All right, welcome back to overtime on a day where the entire stock market really shrugged off a nasty week and moved higher. One group that investors clearly thought was on sale today, the retailers. Take a look at two big names. Gap and raw stores both popping on earnings. and many other retailers rising with those companies, Macy's, T.J. Max, even the beaten up,

the beleaguered, the battered target rising today. All right, now let's talk energy, because what would you say if we told you that America may soon be deficient of about 50 million homes worth of electricity? Well, that's exactly what we are telling you, because that is a Barclay's analysis and what it's telling them about the gap between power demand and power supply, not in 50 years, in just a couple of years. It's because AI and data centers, they're going to grab much of the available electricity. But it also sounds like a massive opportunity for somebody. Joining us now is David Anderson from Barclays.

David, you know, I'm the energy guy. I love that we're talking about this today. I mean, every time I hear about this gap, it gets bigger. Where is the power going to come from? That's a great question. One of the things that we look at very closely has been the industrial turbines and the industrial power that's being added to the market over the next five years. And what we only count up is about 41 gigawatts is going to be added by 2028. And when you look at that 41 gigawatts, not all that's going to data center.

We think maybe 60, 70 percent could go to data centers. But overall, we're counting up a power gap is much bigger than people think. It's closer to 60 gigawatts, we think, by 2028. and then from there by 2030, it could get even larger. Yeah, so you're adding up, like, basically all the plants that are either being built or being expanded or plan to be built. Is there, there must be some, either the data centers aren't going to get the power or communities aren't going to get the power,

or do you anticipate some kind of massive sort of out of the blue almost buildup of electricity? I think, well, what we're starting to see that buildup happening, You're seeing companies like GE-Vernova, Mitsubishi, Siemens, they're all adding capacity, but they've been burned in the past. The last time we really added substantial amount of power to the U.S. was in really 1999, 2000, 2001. Since then, we haven't really done much. So these OEMs are very reticent to add too much capacity. So what we're looking at today is distributed power. We see an opening here.

We see this big power gap happening, and into this void are stepping smaller players. These are smaller and medium-sized turbines. They're natural gas reciprocating engines. You can even count geothermal in this, but these are off-grid power solutions. This is speed to market. This is getting these data centers at least a step closer towards being operational. Yeah, you know, we're showing Caterpillar on our screen alongside you, David. You probably can't see it, but our audience can.

And the people think, why are they showing a bulldozer company? Because Caterpillar is transforming into sort of a mini energy company. Are they not? They've got these turbines that they can use for pipelines, which you can kind of tweak and then make them use for natural gas power. we see that. Let me ask you also, why do you think then this week was so brutal for the Aklos and the companies, the world that people see is the future of energy? Well, you know, I think part of this AI story is capturing a lot of different companies. Within my world, there's six

different companies that have really kind of some leverage to this AI theme. I don't think this is fully understood about how the power works and how kind of all the different components here. The way we look at power, there's such a big power gap that we see this as an opportunity to own these companies. Right now, a lot of these are kind of tell me stories. They're not show me stories yet. We've seen this a couple of times in energy when you have kind of a comment running through our sector, and this is one of those times. But right now, we're seeing the pricing for powers moving higher and higher. As that pricing moves higher, you're seeing more and more demand. The problem is there's just not enough OEMs. There's not enough capacity.

You mentioned Caterpillar. So Caterpillar has talked openly about adding, I think they're saying about two times their capacity in engines and turbines from 2024. That's what they're, that's what they're targeting here. There are some players in international markets that also supply this power. But there's very few of them out there that can meet this gap. Well, how much is the market re-rating all this? I mean, we're talking a lot of these companies, David, are utilities. I mean, they were widely considered the most boring companies in the world. You bought them for the dividend, their regulated power companies. Suddenly, if you got any excess power to use, i.e. Constellation, trying to restart Three Mile Island, now known as the Crane Clean Energy

Center, they're going to sell that power to Microsoft at a giant, giant premium to what people at home would pay. Well, I think what some of these companies are trying to do is move away from that. They're trying to do their best to try to stay off grid, to have these solutions that are not going to be on the meter. These guys, they can't count on the meter. They can't count on intercontactivity. They can't count on being on the grid. It's just not reliable enough. It's not building up enough. And as you said, electricity prices are becoming a big deal. So we're moving to more and more off-grid solutions.

That's what you're seeing Oracle doing. Oracle has signed a long-term 15-year contract for distributed power for 2.3 gigawatts. Another company, Solaris, energy infrastructure, they have reportedly been with X-AI. They have a long-term contract, a JV, a 15-year JV with XAI. So what you're seeing here is these the hypers are realizing they're trying to stay out of this. They're trying to stay out of the NIMBY side of this. and trying to go off-grid, and they're grabbing as much as they can. In my world, we're seeing companies like Liberty Oilfield, for instance, pressure pumping.

Everybody knows it for pressure pumping. Now they're in the power business. They're going to have a gigawatt of power to be distributed by 2027. So you're seeing more and more companies and energy services with transferable skill sets moving into this area to provide power to these data centers. Liberty energy run by whom, formerly? Formerly, Chris Wright. Chris Wright, who is now the? Energy Secretary.

Secretary of Energy. It works out. David Anderson of Berkeley's great report. Thank you very much. By the way, speaking of the Cabinet and the White House, we got some breaking news out of the White House, the meeting between President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zoran Mamdani just

wrapping up. Amen Javers. What do we know? Brian, this was a fascinating moment in the Oval Office. Classic political setpiece here as the left-wing new mayor of mayor elect of new york meets with the right wing president of the united states and what happens not fireworks but handshakes in the oval office and something of a love fest between these two politicians maybe sort of a a game recognizes game moment here from two leaders who inspire

strong passions among their uh followers who have been both very adept at social media and who have been harshly harshly critical of each other one uh man calling the other one man calling the other a fascist the other calling his rival a communist and yet it was all smiles in the Oval Office the president deflecting any tricky questions that could potentially emerge from the press corps here which was primed with a lot of tricky questions and you saw this moment where the two leaders simply said look what we're here to do is figure out what's best for New York we want to improve the economy public safety we want to build housing and we want to deal most of all

with affordability so that affordability issue. So paramount right now on the campaign trail this fall and going into the midterms next year, you can see both parties trying to position themselves as the party of bringing costs down for middle class American voters, Brian. Yeah, what a, what a photo op that I'm sure both sides are going to use to their advantage, whatever that may be. And both sides' bases might be angry about this, too, Brian. Yes, I actually walked by. I said, that's not the shot that either party wants to talk about. But there we go.

Amin Javers, thank you. All right, coming up, Alphabet, killing the talk that AI is going to kill Google search, the stock red hot and what's been a cold week. Michael Santoli up next with more in the ABCs of the Alphabet story. All right, so welcome back in Senior Markets commentator Michael Santoli for a look at how much sort of air might remain under the mega cap names as some of those stocks post major losses for the week, Mike? Yeah, Brian, significant amount by this measure anyway. Nasdaq 100,

that's, you know, mega-cap tech dominated. This is a two-year chart relative to the equal-weighted S&P, so the median S&P 500 stock. You see how big a lead was built up into those peaks in late October here. Now, for the week to date, the equal-weight S&P has outperformed the NASDAQ 100 by like two percentage points. So it's made up a little bit of the difference on a year-date basis, still 10 percentage points behind, but it shows you what happens. When the market broadens out, the headline indexes often suffer along the way. That's what we saw this week. Now, take a look within the Mega Cap Tech Group.

There's a lot of distinctions being drawn among the players. Alphabet has, as of today, as you guys just mentioned, eclipsed Microsoft for the moment, in Market Cap, 3.6 trillion to about 3.5 trillion. And it's really pulled away from Amazon here. People think Google is a little more the safe, visible AI winner at the moment. But as this chart shows you, perceptions and fortunes can change pretty quickly as everybody tries to sort potential winners from losers, Brian. Yep, potential winners and losers this week. Sorted a lot of them out. All right, Michael, see it a bit.

Time now for a CNBC news update with Bertha Coombs. Bertha. Brian, Health Secretary Robert of Kennedy Jr. told the New York Times he personally instructed the CDC to make changes to its vaccine webpage. The health agency updated the website earlier this week to say that the claim vaccines, do not cause autism is, quote, not evidence-based. The CDC's previous longstanding stance was that there is no link. The House Oversight Committee is considering shelving plans to travel to Texas to interview

convicted Jeffrey Epstein co-conspirator Galane Maxwell. Committee Chairman James Comer told Politico that Maxwell's attorneys have indicated she would plead the fifth and refuse to answer questions. It comes after Comer turned down Maxwell's request for immunity. and to receive questions in advance in exchange for her cooperation. And the FAA said today it expects the Thanksgiving travel period to be the busiest in 15 years and that there will be more than 360,000 total flights

hitting a peak on Tuesday with more than 52,000 scheduled that day. Let's hope the weather cooperates, Brian. Bertha, you couldn't pay me to fly this coming week. No, you have to pay me maybe a lot to get on a plane and just sit there. because I have a feeling a lot of people are just going to be sitting there. Brother Coombs, thank you. All right, back to the markets, folks. And hey, a little Friday cheer.

Stocks rallying in the weekend, the Dow of 500 points. Look at that, the Dow, the S&P and the NASDAQ, really just up around 1%. But even those gains, not enough to wipe out weekly losses for the week. The NASDAQ down nearly 3%. Down about 6% so far this month. In fact, here's a little something to make you sound a little smarter at a cocktail party. tonight. The last down month for the NASDAQ was March. March is smart. Terrible month in many ways. It's also the worst month after this month for the NASDAQ. Big gain today, though, for the Russell

2000, up almost 3% on the day. One of the biggest gains we've seen this year for small caps. The markets helped by maybe a rebound. We had options expiration, but we also had Federal Reserve official John Williams seeming to be more open to a December rate cut. Now, rate cuts, lower rates, would be good news for the home builders. So we saw a lot of gains for the home builders today. In fact, Hubnanian is up 12%. And Morgan Brennan down in Florida, we're not just talking about homes and home builders by accident. In TV, they call this synergy.

Oh, this is very synergistic, Brian. And I love that you just led in with that because coming up next, related companies founder, Miami Dolphins owner, Stephen Ross, on the outlook for real estate in this economy. We're also going to talk about the future of sports media rights, the business of the NFL. So much more, you do not want to miss this conversation. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Joining me now here from the CNBC CEO counsel for an exclusive interview is Stephen Ross.

He is founder, a non-executive chairman of real estate powerhouse related companies, which is the developers in the world's most premier projects, Hudson Yards, the Moynihan train station in New York, 500 Lakeshore Drive in Chicago, Brent Cross Town in London. He's also the owner of the Miami Dolphins. And more recently, he is the creator, the builder, the CEO of Related Ross. And that is what brings us here to South Florida, Related Ross. Because you were sort of ahead of the curve here. You saw a huge opportunity to invest in West Palm Beach and Palm Beach County.

How's it going? It's going great. I mean, these times are changing. The opportunity is here. And it's a question of, you know, kind of growing and getting people to really see that opportunity to really come down here and live, work, and play, so to speak. And so what does that mean for related, Ross, especially as we talk about a surge in population and the need for infrastructure to keep up? Well, I mean, the infrastructure is here in Florida. I mean, and there's so much change occurring in the country that, you know, in every single aspect of it.

And then you look and see politically and economically at the same time with all the other change in every industry, you see the opportunities that exist in Florida. Florida is probably the best business state, though it's not really known for business. I mean, the state constitution prohibits an income tax. And the government really believes very pro-business. And today with the change occurring in the Northeast, California, people are looking for, ways that they can grow and grow, you know, in an ecosystem that really kind of encouraged that growth. And I think, you know, Florida, you know, we saw that opportunity with that change and trying to deliver all the needs that business will require if they come here,

which is education, hospitals, you know, same amount of amenities, golf courses and things like that. So we're doing all of those things getting ready. for the growth that we expect. So what does that mean when you look across different parts of commercial real estate, whether it's office or whether it's multi-use, whether it's multifamily, South Flagler House just topped out as well. That's one of your projects down here on the residential side. How do you think about that across these different parts of the sector?

Well, I mean, in order to, you know, first of all, places really grow long-term with jobs. So you've got to really look to see how do you really attract corporations to want to move here or start businesses here. So it really was dealing with all those infrastructure-type issues of schools and hospitals that are needed. So that's what we've done over the last three years. And now we've got a great hospital coming. We have Cleveland Clinic coming.

We have Vanderbilt University coming with our graduate schools, a business engineering, AI, K-12 schools, which is so important for companies to really want to relocate here. So in dealing with both charter schools, private schools, and also the public education system. So it's really putting that whole infrastructure together that we've kind of concentrated on. We've put it together because corporations, when they're going to look at a place and looking to make a serious move, you know, they're always looking for excuse not to go someplace, especially if it's not there. So we really concentrated at making sure people couldn't say no to us because we've handled all those issues.

And so now we're just marketing it. And I think probably the most important things just happen is that service now, over a $200 billion company, is creating an HQ2 here in South Florida in West Palm Beach. Yeah. It's really, you know, hopefully it's the beginning of really bringing tech here as well as all the financial service firms from New York, you know, that have opened here already. So, you know, and then you add to the issues that New York City might have. I was just going there with you because we just saw the photo op of President Trump and the mayor elect of New York City, Mamdani, on the screen a little bit earlier this hour. And I did want to get your thoughts on that as somebody who has developed so much of New York and has seen the flows out of New York.

No, I mean, I'm very concerned. I don't know what it came out of that meeting with Trump and Mandani. But at the same time, you know, if you look and see when you had a very liberal government, government, I guess you would call it that, in California, and what happened in San Francisco and the issues San Francisco had, I would expect that's what's probably going to happen in New York. So I think you'll see a lot of businesses moving there, but I don't look at New York as really, you know, so doom and gloom, young people still want to be there. Okay.

It's still a great city. New York City, I mean, I would not write off New York City at all. Okay. But I think there's going to open up opportunities today for places like Florida. And so we're very optimistic about that. All right. I got to talk football with you. Miami Dolphins.

One of Miami Dolphins. I mean, valuations. We've had a huge year with even just some transactions recently, I think, about the Giants as a New Yorker. I want to get your thoughts on what we're seeing and the role that investors are playing in it. I think today, you know, people have invested in a. a lot of different types of assets, but they want to be more actively involved. And I think if you feel you're investing in a football team that you really have a lot of passion for, you know, it gives you a reason to feel more attached to something.

You know, today in today's world, we feel more detached from things and we are attached to things. So I think the idea of investing in sports and being able to root for your team and having an interest in how they do is really something. something that I think is a new phenomena that didn't exist before. Well, in Football's America's pastime, let's be honest here. But we've seen, we're seeing expansion. You've seen international expansion, Brazil, Europe, with the NFL. There's talk about expanding more of the regular season games as well.

Right. What do you think that does for the sport? Well, I mean, you know, you hope it doesn't get overly done. But I think that today people really want more football. I mean, it is the most popular sport in America. It's more popular than all the sports combined, the other sports combined. So I think football, I think, is in a great position. And I think that, you know, with the leadership there and looking to expand it,

I think the future looks very good, to say the least. All right. We're going to end it on that optimistic note. Stephen Ross, it's so great to have you here. Thanks for joining me. Thank you. I appreciate it. Brian, that's going to do it for me here in South.

Florida. I'm going to send it back over the 8th, you got it. HQ, and I'm going to go enjoy some of the sunshine. Well, but hold on for you. Please thank Mr. Ross. I'm going to say this. The Moynihan train station, if you're not familiar, Penn Station was just not ideal. If you live in New Jersey like I do, it's changed the game. So off camera, thank

him, because we've got to have a real train station for us, Jersey denizens. That's nice. Thank you, Morgan. I will let him know. Please do. Yeah. It's not quite Grand Central. But we're getting there. All right, up next. The risk indicators that you need to know heading into the holiday short and trading week.

And is one of those sort of a long-awaited piece of government data, one that we may be talking about a lot next week. Stick around. All right, let's bring back in, Michael Santoli, for a look at some of the key risk indicators for the market and your money as we head into a holiday interrupted week. Mike? Yeah, Brian. So when the stock market starts to wobble, show some stress, you look at the whole instrument panel to see what other asset classes. see what other asset classes are saying, whether, in fact, it's sending up any alarms. Here's the spread of high-yield corporate debt versus Treasury.

So it's the junk spread. And it's up a bit off historic lows. That means that, you know, investors are demanding a little more compensation for the risk. When this number goes up, it means the market is getting a little bit more concerned. But it's really low relative to even the heights, obviously, of April. But then this was last year, the yen carry trade blowup. That was a fleeting episode. So right now, I would say it's less beneath.

nine, but definitely not in the danger zone. I would say above three and a half percentage points above treasuries. That's when you start to say maybe the market's pricing in something a little bit tougher on the macro front. And then equity market volatility. Take a look at the VIX, the volatility index. This is the market's pricing, the best guess based on S&P 500 options of how volatile the market's going to be over the next 30 days. And we are up here, as you see, above 23. It's slightly off of yesterday's highs. It's around. It's around. where we were just about a month ago. So here, of course, again, the tariff panic. What you want to see is this spike and then start to recede. Some systems I know say you want to get three points off the high. That can sometimes mean the fever has broken. And I would also just point out, five of the next nine days, the market's going to be closed. So this is an elevated reading considering there's not going to be a lot of underlying index movement for many of those days. So it shows you we're still kind of tensed up there. Sometimes that's what happens right ahead of some relief. But we'll see, Brian. was also the big options X pre-day. And so, yeah, we talked a lot about a video. We talked a lot

about crypto. I do wonder how much of what we saw yesterday was options and positioning and technicals. Yep. It wants the market definitely is in pullback mode and it's broken through some levels everyone thought would hold. That's what happened yesterday. It does become very tactical, very technical. And it goes to these sort of magnet points where there's clusters of exposure. I think a lot of people out there were not surprised that we closed the S&P at 6,600 today. That was considered to be one of those gravitational kind of centers. So we'll see if that gets cleared out. We go into next week, things move a little more freely after options, expirations,

and sometimes you can get a sense more of the underlying supply and demand. There you go. Michael Santoli, thank you very much. Yep. Have a great one. Take care. You as well. All right, believe it or not, folks, yeah, we got Thanksgiving on Thursday,

but we also have a lot of earnings next week. tech, retail, a yellow deer, jumping in a green, John Deere. We're going to talk about, though, what may be the most important piece of data next week. That's next. We aren't quite done just yet. So let's get you set up for your Friday and next week because, yes, next week is a holiday shortened week. Thank goodness. But there still is a lot of critical data to pay attention to, including some big inflation data on Tuesday, Fed data on Wednesday.

And believe it or not, there's also earnings next week. Dell, Zoom, Work Day, all on the tech side. Best Buy, Coles, Dick, supporting goods, unveiling on the retail side. But maybe what is the most important thing to watch out of all that or more? Joining us, Vital Knowledge Founder Adam, Chrisa Fully. Adam, let's close it out strong, my man. Either pick those things or something else. What are the most important things you are watching?

Yeah, I think you have most of the major events on the screen there. I think in order on the macro front, the PPI and housing prices also on Tuesday are going to be very important to get a sense of inflation. These are going to be some of the final inflation numbers the Fed gets before the December 10th meeting. And then the Bagebook is going to be probably the most recent update on the economy that the Fed will receive before that decision. It's all qualitative. It's not quantitative. But the Fed has talked about this as being a pretty invaluable source for them as they watch the economy with so many moving pieces right now. So I think the beige book is going to be pretty important just to get a snapshot of where the economy is before that December 10th decision. Yeah, a lot of the debate this week was over that December 10th meeting, and we saw the odds of a rate cut get crushed, dropped by more than half.

John Williams kind of turned that around just a little bit. How much would a rate cut matter to the market at December 10th? I think the market cares very much about the trajectory of monetary policy. You know, I think at this point, you kind of have two scenarios right now for that December 10th meeting. you have a rate cut, but the forward guidance shifts in a hawkish direction, or you have rates hold steady, but the forward guidance stays more doveish, and you have more kind of unanimity among the Fed as far as that decision. And I think kind of the latter at this point would be optimal for markets right now. So I think it's important the forward guidance coupled with what actually happens in the on that in terms of rates in December is going to be really important. And then keep in mind, too, the big wild card will be Trump's decision on replacing Powell.

That could arrive at any moment, you know, potentially even before. for the December 10th meeting. So that's a crucial component to be aware of, too. I don't know how the Fed does anything because unless they've got secret data we don't know about, how are they going to make a decision at them? Yeah, I mean, that's a great point. You know, we're kind of flying blind right now

as far as insight into the economy. You know, the Fed officials said that they do have, despite the lack of government data, they still have a good sense of what's happening on the ground. And so I don't think they're going to defer or kind of hold off on a decision because of a lack of information. But I think it's more just the evolution of the economy.

It doesn't necessarily support, you know, an aggressive easing path, maybe pausing and then doing it again in January. What do you think happened yesterday? Everybody, you know, I think it was Bitcoin and crypto. Some say Nvidia, some say, I don't know, a werewolf. What do you think it was? I think the single biggest important event this week was the Gemini 3 launch from Google. I think that really has profound implications for the entire narrative around

AI. And I feel like that to me, really, you're kind of seeing the ramifications of that as investors work through the implications of Google catapulting back into a leadership position in the AI industry, really for the first time since chat GPT launched. And I think really was the market kind of reacting to that. So if you really dissect what happened in tech, it wasn't so much that investors, you know, withdrew from AI or abandoned AI. Google traded very well all week. Yeah. I think it's more, again,

kind of just a reassessment of the overall AI landscape. I said, Werewolf earlier. I should have said Vampire because I feel like Alphabet, Google, put a stake in the heart of this theme that AI is going to kill search,

right? One word answer. Yes. Absolutely. That was two, but you still did a great job. Adam, Christopher. Yes, absolutely.

We didn't need the second one, but I appreciate Adam. Great stuff. Have a good weekend. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. Folks, one more check on crypto because Bitcoin. they don't stop trading right markets had a big day today crypto not so hot bitcoin down right now we'll see where it leads i've got a laptop but i am done have a great weekend everybody