Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 11/24/25

Episode Date: November 24, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, gentlemen, and the regulation, Mitsubishi UFJ, financing grouping in the closing in the U.S. Stock Exchange, NASDAG Baltic Award winners during the honors at the NASDAQ. Stock's extending Friday's bounce with all the major averages closing higher. NASDAQ, the standout, up nearly 3 percent, posting its best day since May. That's word from Fed Governor Chris Waller and Fed President Mary Daley in San Francisco, gooseing the bullish narrative today. The move higher driven by a reawakening of the AI trade, big moves from Alphabet. a bet, Broadcom, Palantier and AMD, Broadcom alone jumping more than 10% staples and energy

with the big laggards, though. Yields mostly steady with the 10-year and the two-year, following about two basis points as investors continue to wait for more catch-up economic data and a bullish day for commodities as well. Gold, silver, and oil all ending in the green, a weaker dollar and stronger Fed rate cut bets, boosting gold. Well, that's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to Closing Bell overtime.

I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. Ahead, bullish sentiment returns to the street as the AI trade picks up momentum again. Will it last or will the enthusiasm be short-lived? Plus, as the official holiday shopping season kicks off this week, we will look at who could be the retail winners and losers. And Tesla sales fall to a three-year low. As competition heats up and the economy cools down, we will be live in Beijing with a look at who's taking market share. And what it means for the company? Well, for more on today's rally, let's head to Christina Partonelis at

the NASDAQ. Christina. John, we are seeing a buying frenzy and big tech today driven by higher odds for a December rate cut from the Fed. The rally was really just broad based across tech. Chip stocks, for example, jumped Micron up 8%, while momentum names like Palantir also climbed higher and was 5% higher. But the Magnificent seven were really in the driver's seat.

All seven closed tire led by Tesla up about 7%. There was a gain after CEO Elon Musk on Sunday said the company has designed millions of AI chips for its cars and data centers. Alphabet as well, surging more than 6% driving the Nasdaq higher. The company's integrated AI approach, which is just combining its Gemini models with custom chips, and Google Cloud is really positioning Google to capture a bigger slice of the AI market, and investors are taking note. That's why shares are up 68% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, healthcare stocks are having their best month of the year. The sector's up about 7% in November. That's making it the market's top-performing sector. A Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says a major health care announcement, is coming this week, so that's helping add to the rally, or I should say a nice bounce back to start this week. Morgan? All right, Christina Parts-Nevilus. Thank you. Bitcoin is closing higher today as it tries to rebound following a very volatile week. Mackenzie Sagalos has the numbers for us. Hi, Mac. Hey, Morgan. So the crypto market is coming back strong, moving in lockstep

with the NASDAQ-100. Bitcoin trading near that 89K mark and crypto-pegged equities are rallying alongside it. Miners, exchanges like Coinbase and Robin Hood, and even digital asset treasury plays are pairing last week's losses. Tom Lee's bitmine immersion and ether proxy is that more than 18% outpacing ether's own 5% gain on the day, really a reminder of why that crypto treasury trade gained traction this summer. Now, this rebound follows a shift in spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which flipped positive on Friday. The first real sign that institutional buyers may be stepping back in after weeks of record redemptions. The question now is whether that marks a true bottom

or just a pause in a broader unwind. One potentially troubling trend, capital rotating into digital asset safe havens as a form of protection from market volatility. New data shows stable coins now make up 9% of crypto's total market cap, which is a two-year high. An analysts say that that is a classic bear market signal

reflecting rising risk aversion across the industry. All right, Mackenzie, thank you. Well, the market's kicking off this shortened holiday week. In rally mode, the tech trade popping as the odds of a Fed rate cut continue to climb. The December odds of a cut now back around 70% up from 33 on Friday. So will the momentum carry into December? Joining us now is Truest Wealth, Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Executive Director, Dan Skelly.

Guys, happy Monday. Keith, is this market still priced for perfectioner? I guess enough of it because it's... It's the exciting names, or the excitable names, at least, that seem to move things today. Yeah, well, first, great to be with you. Luckily, the market gave us something to be thankful for, at least on this Monday. You know, I don't know that the market's price perfection. I do think after one of the strongest six-month moves we've seen in history, that it did get overstretched

and sentiment became, you know, a little bit euphoric in some areas of the market. But we've done a pretty good job of resetting that. If you look at some of like the meme stocks as an example, since the October high, they're down about 40%. And, you know, the S&P is down, you know, its first 5% correction we've seen since April. And as we look at the NASDAQ or the technology sector, coming into today, we had the most oversold conditions since April.

So I actually think we've reset the bar pretty well, and I would say that we're still positive in tech, and we were saying last week to use the weakness, and we'll still say that today in tech, because we still think ultimately tech still moves higher, supported by much stronger earning trends than the overall market. Okay. Dan Skelly, I believe you are looking at health care as being underowned and priced for pessimism, so I guess you don't think the whole market is priced for perfection either.

Yeah, and we like sectors like health care, which seems to have put in a definitive bottom in the last several months. We think we're past the point of maximum policy uncertainty. We saw fairly healthy earnings trends across med tech, tools, and life science, and even big pharma. over the reporting season. And this is a sector that is anti-correlated to a lot of the AI trades. And so it gives you a little bit of true diversity in a portfolio.

Keith, want to get your thoughts on the volatility we're seeing not just in stocks, but also in the Fed Fund's futures, given what we've seen in terms of volatility of Fed speak as well. I just think about what we heard on Friday, what we're hearing today,

most recently from San Francisco's daily, just maybe an hour, hour and a half ago. How do you factor this into the investment thesis? Yeah, one, I would try not to re-react, but it's notable that the S&P 500 actually peaked the day of power's comments. We pushed back against an automatic December rate cut. But what you are seeing since then, there was two things that have been in question, the AI trade and whether the Fed's going to cut. Now, today we've seen the AI trade back in vogue, and then we're seeing the market now price in the rate cuts again. So that is certainly helping.

I would say, though, if we zoom out a bit, looking the next six to 12 months, we think ultimately, the Fed does cut rates and that earnings do move higher. So we think ultimately that will allow the market to move higher. And I would probably say, don't try to get wrapped up too much in the day-to-day and whether they cut in December or not. Ultimately, we think they are going to cut. And ultimately, we still think profits move higher. And I think, you know, you still want to give this market the benefit of the doubt.

Here's an interesting stat for you, Dan. November historically bottoms on November 20th before the seasonal late-month rally. What's more interesting is that one of the weaker parts of the year is actually November 18. to 20th. Looks like we're kind of on track here from a historical standpoint. So if we're talking about a secular bull market that's still on track, what powers it to the next leg higher? Sure. So Morgan, I don't know if anyone can predict the day-to-day ongoings of the market, given everything we're seeing this year. But I would say, I think this mini correction is over. It was a 5% drawdown, peak to trough. It was really quite honestly nothing. And we do

see the market continuing to take off into the end of the year, into the beginning of next year, and that's driven by earnings broadening out across other sectors, continued power, power and productivity advancements around AI. And we do think the Fed is going to be cutting into next year. So those are the catalysts going forward. I would just lastly say, I don't actually mind the fact that everyone keeps talking about AI bubbles and AI crashes. What we saw over the last couple of weeks was more like an AI Fender Bender, right? It's really not the type of thing to concern people. Keith, what's the major danger for the market in December? Over the last few years, we've seen some pretty serious accidents in the market at the end of December. Yeah, it's probably

something we're not talking about, which catches us from left field. But I will say, I don't think this is a major danger, but now the market has now shifted the Fed Fund's futures or a cut in December to 80% if we suddenly kind of go back to close to zero. I mean, that that is a concern. We also have maybe some news around the terrorists, which could be a concern as well. But I ultimately do think that we will rally into December. That's our base case outlook. And historically, we are in a seasonally positive period of the year coming off kind of an oversold condition now. And I think we have enough to make some headway into year end. All right. Keith Lerner and Dan Skelly. Thank you for kicking off the hour with us.

With a lot of green on the screen, all the major averages finishing up led higher in particular by those big cap tech names. Well, President Trump is set to sign an executive order, speaking of tech, on AI at the White House this hour. You got a live shot right there on your screen. Emily Wilkins joins us. She's right here on set. What do we know about this executive order and what do we know about what I'll call the turf war that's playing out between the federal government and the states where regulation is concerned? I mean, Morgan, I think the big headline is that there's just a lot. going on with AI right now because as you mentioned very interesting battle between the states

and the federal government AI it's an intra-party battle it's divided republicans against republicans democrats against Democrats but that's not even the topic of the executive order that we're expecting out today based on reporting it's going to be kind of like a Manhattan project but for AI so really encouraging laboratories in the u.s national federal laboratories public private partnerships energy basically trying to bring all these different components together to really boost and increase AI dominance within the U.S., and we're still waiting to see what, if any, sort of state preemption, either comes from Congress in one of these must pass year-end bills,

or if the White House will dust off that executive order, they've been working on and try to just go ahead with that. And it sure seems like the themes in the regulatory conversation are safety versus power. How can we make sure that workers, say, are protected from AI deciding who gets fired, versus how can we move ahead as a country and make sure China doesn't beat us because we've got too many

I guess too many laws, regulations in place. You're saying it doesn't seem like any party is taking a strong position firmly on either side. Well, it's been interesting because John, I think you really hit the nail on the head that is the main debate. And you have both Republicans who say,

look, we're seeing that there are all these states coming out with new laws. You've had four so far this year, many more that were introduced, and saying, hey, this is a package. that's going to really make it difficult for AI companies, especially for startups to continue. So we need to sort of preempt that with a federal standard. But there are some Republicans and a number of Democrats who are saying what federal standard?

There's really no bill right now that's comprehensive enough and close enough to the finish line to really become that standard. And so what I am hearing from my sources on Capitol Hill is that they're kind of trying to see if there's a way that they can sort of separate what needs to be done at the federal level versus what needs to be done at the state level. So, for example, maybe development and deployment of AI would be a federal level thing that the states can't touch. But if the states want to do things on safety, on consumer protections, on protections, on protections for kids, on for fraud, there might be the ability to have some carve-outs there. But this is a while to go yet. We've got to negotiate a number of things to see if folks can get on board, which is part of the reason why you're seeing now all these groups and all these campaigns launched. Yeah. I mean, when we talk about an AI arms race to compare this possible executive order to a Manhattan Project really kind of confirms that concept.

and that narrative. What I'm curious about is at some point, we're on a continuing resolution. At some point, lawmakers are going to have to come to the table again for a more permanent budget here, at least for what's left of the current fiscal year. How much does this play into that here over the coming weeks and the coming months? I mean, I think this could definitely play a role. I mean, I will say that right now, just from the draft budgets that we've seen put out on the House and the Senate, on those pieces of the government that are still being funded from really the funding for two years ago. There are a number of additional investments that they want to make in AI, in chips, in semiconductors. None of that can happen if they just wind up continuing the funding.

And then, of course, Morgan, you know this well, those big end-year bills. If you're going to add in something a little extra like preempting certain state laws on AI, that is certainly one of the vehicles to do it, it's a must-pass, and it's a way that Congress tends to get a lot of stuff done. All right, Emily Wilkins, great to have you here on set. Great to be here on set. Thank you. Good to have you. Well, Bitcoin losing roughly a fifth of its value this month. Up next, we're going to discuss whether there's a bounce back on the horizon.

Plus, the retail ETS has been dead money so far this year. And coming up, we'll look at the stocks that might be ready for more of a rebound as the holiday shopping season gets going. Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to overtime. The AI trade in full swing today with different areas of the ecosystem rallying. The AI energy complex had big moves, including Bloom Energy, GE, Renova, constellation energy, and new scale. The data center plays in the green with applied digital

and nebius group leading and the networking stocks. Lumentum, coherent, credo winners in that sector. Morgan. All right. Well, Bitcoin finally seeing some gains today after major losses last week. Is this a sign that a bounceback is on the horizon? Well, joining us now is Emily Parker. She is senior strategic advisor at Coincheck Group, Japan's leading crypto exchange. Emily, it's great to have you on. Obviously, you saw a huge drawdown in Bitcoin and other crypto assets, has the flushing out happened here? Are we headed for a crypto crypto winter, or are we dodging that bullet? I guess is the way I should put it. I feel like if anybody with confidence answers that question, they are probably not telling the truth because nobody

really knows where Bitcoin price is heading. But I think if we look at just some of the larger macro trends, there's reason to be cautiously optimistic. So yes, this has been a pretty bad crash. For those in the crypto world, we're kind of used to it. But this has been bad, but there are some trends that are cautiously optimistic for the long term. One of them is institutional investment. Now, this is obviously a double-edged sword because the institutions coming into crypto have helped bring up the price. They're also exacerbating the crash. We're seeing pullouts from ETFs, for example. But still, for example, the fact that Harvard has invested more in Bitcoin than it has in any other single stock, that's a pretty important

data point. You have BlackRock. You have Fidelity. These are pretty big giants in the market. And the second is the big change in regulation, particularly in the United States. You know, you have SEC chair, Paul Atkins out there saying crypto's time has come. That is very much not what Gary Gensler was saying. So these are larger macro trends that I think bode relatively well for the future, even if we're in a crash right now. Yeah. I mean, there's Bitcoin and then there's the other cryptocurrencies and there's stable coins. And I guess it raises the question here is the drawdown that we've seen more broadly across the asset class exactly that,

just a broad drawdown? Or is this actually a rotation out of Bitcoin into some of these other areas where you have more utilitarian uses? That's a great question. I think it's too early to say that it's a drawdown out of Bitcoin into other asset classes. But you're asking the right question. For example, if you look at Ethereum, Ethereum, Ether has been crashing as well. But there are reasons, again, to be cautiously optimistic about Ether. One reason is that ether is behind stable coins. It's the network that most stable coins run on. It's behind real-world assets. You know, real-world asset tokenization refers to basically tokenizing treasuries or gold or whatever. And a lot of that is built on ETH. So I think that's a relatively

positive indicator that there is some utility to Ether that's not just speculation. Emily, how are these big leverage bets out there, say connected to Bitcoin going to affect not just it, but the rest of crypto? Yeah. I mean, there's too much leverage in crypto. I think it's really simple. I think most people would agree on that. And I think that's what we're feeling right now. I mean, a lot of this is kind of the lingering effect of all the liquidations that happened in October. It seems to it, some of the leverage seems to be shaking out. But look, this industry has a problem with excess. This has been true from the very beginning. And we've been definitely seeing excessive leverage. And I don't think that's good. And if this shakes

out some of that leverage, that's not a bad thing. Is that why the downs lately for, say, Bitcoin are bigger than the major averages, but the ups aren't? That's a good question also. I think to some degree, yes. I mean, I think where we're really seeing the leverage play out, for example, are in the whole digital asset treasury trend, which is like, for example, strategy, Michael Saylor's operation. That's part of that. These are these companies that basically borrow money to buy Bitcoin. And that strategy is great when the price is just going up and up. But when the price is going down, yes, it definitely accelerates and exacerbates the pain for the average investor. Emily, the fact that we've had such a tight correlation

between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 and even to a certain extent with the S&P 500, what does that signal from your vantage point? Yeah, I mean, you know, Bitcoin is all over the place with this, like sometimes it's correlated, sometimes it's not correlated. So right now you're right. We're seeing Bitcoin correlating more with risky assets like tech stocks, which again kind of undercuts this narrative of Bitcoin being a safe haven or a digital gold. But it's not always like that, right? So it's hard to say because it's definitely all over the place when it comes to correlation. All right. Emily Parker, thank you.

Thank you so much. Well, Zoom earnings are out. Stocks up right now about three and a half. percent and over time. The company reporting EPS of $1.52 versus estimates of $1.44, revenue coming in above estimates at $1.23 billion versus estimates of $1.21 billion, and the company giving fourth quarter EPS guidance above estimates, raising the upper end of revenue guidance. Enterprise customer revenue jumped 6.1% year over year, billings coming in at $1.19 billion, which is above expectations.

Up next, Mike Santoli is going to look at where investor equity exposure sits after the recent pullback and whether today's rally is a sign of things to come. Plus, energy is the worst performing sector this year. Fast Money's Guy Adami tells us whether now is the time to buy these beaten down stocks. We've got that and so much more coming up later on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. The roller coaster ride at Six Flags continues. The struggling amusement park operator naming former SeaWorld interim CEO John Riley as its new chief.

Six flag shares are down roughly 70% this year, as it faces following attendance and pressure from activist investors to improve the business and guest experiences, but did finish up 7% on that appointment today. Yeah, looks more like a water slide to me. Well, after last week's pullback and today's surge in the markets, where do we stand? Are investors leaning into stocks or leaning back? Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is here with more. Mike? Yeah, John, the market today making a bid for last week's low to hold up, and if that would, To be the case, it would mean that we got a just barely 5% pullback after a six-month rally of almost 40%

and just would have touched the 100-day moving average. It's not as widely watched, but it's actually one, especially if you go back to like 2024, it held up a few times. Basically, you know, it's what, what, it's a five-month moving average because it's trading days. So you see here we did reset back to, you know, basically two-month-ago levels. That's often what the market has to do in a bull market is kind of go back in time a little bit and check the assumptions. So we'll see. Obviously, there's more room to, more, more to be proven on the upside, especially in the S&P. Still 1% below Thursday morning's level before that downside

reversal. Now, investor positioning, this is Deutsche Bank's aggregate positioning indicator, individuals, institutions, all the rest. And it just now went to an underway position. Basically means equity exposures are below their average for an extended period of time, which is encouraging. It means there's room for them to expand equity holdings. It means that positioning is definitely not off sides anymore. I would note, though, when we first went negative right there, that was like late February, early March of this year. That was when we had that momentum unwind, but well before we had the tariff panic. So obviously that was news driven, and it was very specific financial condition tightening. But it's worth noting there's nothing

magic about it going negative, even though it probably has to go into the asset column if you're making a bullbear case. Mike, it seems to me like the market's in that position when you're watching a scary movie, and you're trying to anticipate the jump scare, right? They always have something that happens, and you're like, oh, wait, no, it's not. Is that what some of these charts are telling us? Yes. I mean, I often say, to kind of throw a different metaphor out there, it's like, it's like two for flinching, you know, you're going to punch somebody in the arm, and then if you

flinch, you get to punch you twice. Sometimes that's the case. I do think it is basically a matter of the things that were below the surface as these long building, imbalances or concerns, text too concentrated, we got too much in the AI trade, obviously a case-shaped economy, whatever you might think. Once they're at the surface level and it's starting to get into prices and sentiment, sometimes it means that you can basically restore the ability for upside surprise or just to notice maybe things haven't changed that much and we have the buyers come back in. So it's an odd life cycle of a bull market, but you do

actually have these little half corrections that the only reason you would get down five percentages if some people were afraid we were going to go down 10 or more. And so, therefore, it's a matter of kind of fooling the greatest number of people tactically. Okay. Mike Santoli. Thank you. We'll see a little bit later this hour. It's time now for a CNBC News update with Julia Borsden. Hi, Julia. Hey, Morgan. Former FBI director James Comey says he is grateful a judge dismissed his indictment, but that he expects President Trump to keep targeting him. The judge threw out the cases against Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James earlier today,

saying the prosecutor who brought the charges at President Trump's urging was illegally appointed by the Justice Department. The White House says it will appeal. Meanwhile, the DOJ is asking a judge to unseal grand jury records related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It comes days after the president signed the Epstein Transparency Act, which calls for their release within 30 days. The Justice Department says the congressional action overrides existing law. And Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said today the government will investigate airlines that did not comply with required flight cuts during the government shutdown. He did not name specific carriers.

The FAA called for reductions at 40 U.S. airports earlier this month because of safety concerns around air traffic controller staffing during the shutdown. Back over to you. All right. Julie Borson, thank you. Up next, the top retail expert, tells us which retail stocks you should be adding to your holiday shopping basket right now. And later we'll head live to Beijing for a look at how competition in the EV space could spell trouble for Tesla.

Be right back. Welcome back. Stocks staging a healthy rebound as the AI narrative stabilized. The NASDAQ posting its best day since May, rallying almost 3% on this Monday. The rally was broad-based in the tech sector. Momentum names, chip stocks, AI darlings, the MAG-7 all higher. The MAG 7 adding about $593 billion in market cap just today, the ETF Mags posting its best day since May as well. Broadcom, among the biggest winners, adding a solid 175 points to the NASDAQ, posting its best day since April. Outside of tech, though, Nova Nordisk was in the spotlight today.

The stock closing lower after its trial for Alzheimer's failed to meet its main goal. We've really seen the error come out of that stock in recent months. And Life Sciences Company, Agilent, moving lower right. now here in after hours. That's following its results. The company beating on EPS and revenue, but first quarter EPS guidance came in below estimates and you could see those shares are down 1%. All right. Well, Friday marks a stop to start of the holiday shopping season as US consumers head back out on Black Friday. And this comes after last week's earnings from a number of retailers showed a mixed picture about the state of the consumer with a growing divide between

the haves and have-nots. Joining us now is John San Marco, senior research analyst at New Burger Berman. John, good to see you. my big question heading into this season is discounting, especially given that commentary during earnings season. How good will the deals have to be to keep people spending? Yeah. On one hand, the consumer is really responding to discounting, so it's going to be a huge temptation to pull that lever. And as you alluded, the consumer picture's been kind of mixed. So, you know, except for the healthiest retailers that are driving a ton of traffic, it'll be hard to lay off of that lever. On the other hand, you know, retailers are still sort of figuring out

how to push the tariffs through to the consumer, preserve their P&L, and, you know, discounting less is a relatively pain-free way to do that. So it'll be tricky on the whole. I think you'll see a pretty normal degree of discounting, and I think you're going to see a pretty normal, on-trend level of demand for the consumer, too, this holiday. I got a challenging question. for you. So, but you're the expert. So I think you can field it. What retailer is going to be the poster child for this holiday season? I mean, maybe not the one that outperforms or the one that way underperforms. But based on what you're seeing in consumer behavior, what retailer do you think represents the mainstream enough that as it goes, so goes the general season?

I think, you know, poster child makes me think of TJX. You know, there's a modicum of defense there because they offer such great value and their business is historically held up so well, almost regardless of what's happening with inflation or consumer discretionary spending. And then they can also participate in the upside, too. And, you know, when we turn the calendar on this year and we get to tax refund season and the consumer's going to have a lot more take home pay next year, we should see them benefit too, particularly if housing activity gets touched. T.JX should really do well. And then anything that's hard for the competition, whether it's

the consumer volatility from one month to the next or category volatility or variance across consumer cohorts, all of that stuff makes life really hard on the industry buyers to forecast. And when it's hard on those competitor buyers, it creates a lot of availability for TJX. We're going to see some of these housing-related and home improvement stocks start to inflect here? It's, it's, it's, home improvement has been the, the slowest pocket of retail to recover. I think we're well past the point where that, uh, relative softness represents demand that's getting pent up. So, you know, what uncorks that demand? It's, you know, I think it's a matter of timing. Um, rates stabilizing coming down in some cases should be helpful. Existing home sales have

now been flattish for three years or so. So that's a headwind that at worst case should move. to neutral. And then Home Depot is a name within the space we really like. We think there's some self-help that can, you know, enable them to continue outgrowing the industry. Yeah. I wonder what the inventory picture is going to look like here. As we get past the holiday season, because we saw such a big pull forward, right, in anticipation and uncertainty around tariffs and trade dynamics, et cetera. So how does that set us up for early 2026? And how does that set some of these companies up for pricing? I think, you know, the big picture you described, I think misses some of the small pictures, which will dictate that, and that is, you know, tariff rates being

moved around on different categories, different countries of origin, exemptions, consumer response to the tariffs as they're getting passed through, of course, as it creates its own elements of surprise. Most of these, most of these detailed factors, just as I said, with TJX just make life really hard on retailers to plan inventory. And so on one hand, they don't want to get caught long inventory and have a markdown liability building. But all these things sort of make it important to have more safety stock, more capacity to serve demand when it shows up. So it's a really tricky environment for retailers. And you've seen it this year. I think you'll see it again next year. It's such a difficult environment. The

winners really outpace, you know, outpace and separate themselves from from the rest of the back. All right. John San Marco, thank you. Thank you. Well, Tesla's sales in China dropping to a three-year low last month. Up next, we're going to look at why a new wave of competition there makes the road ahead look even bumpier for Tesla. Plus, investors have been going Gaga for Google all year. The stock is leading the AI rebound today. Some big moves there. Fast money's Guy Adami tells us how he's trading the stock as it hits an all-time high. You don't want to miss it. Overtime, we'll be back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Check out shares of rare earth miner and magnet maker MP materials. A big winner today. Shares finished up 7%. BMO capital markets upgrading

the stock to buy from hold, citing last week's announced partnership with the Pentagon and Saudi mining company Maidan, as well as valuation. Now, MP shares losing roughly a third since mid October, but starting to claw some of that back, and we'll keep an eye on it. For sure. Well, China's, Tesla's China sales, rather, plunged to roughly 26,000 units in October. That's its lowest mark in three years. Rivals are swarming, demand weakening, and our units unit is in Beijing, running down details on who's outpacing Tesla and why it matters. Tesla's newest direct competitor in the upper echelon of the Chinese EV market is China's Xiaomi.

The smartphone makers U7 SUV and Sue 7 sedan posted record sales in October, despite accidents that raised concerns about the car safety. The EV newbie sold nearly 109,000 cars in Q3 compared to 170,000 for Tesla. Its EV unit just turned to profit for the first time. Late Bloomer Leap Motor is pressuring Tesla, too. The Chinese EV startup has been around for 10 years, but only this year, started beating out its Chinese peers in terms of sales and stock price. Its C-10 mid-sized SUV is priced roughly half of a Model Y.

Leap Motor also has a JV partnership with Europe's Stalantis. Foreign companies not named Tesla barely make a dent. in the EV market here. Taking the title of EV sales champ in China this year is the Gili Ji-Om-Sing-Yen. It isn't a direct competitor to Tesla since it serves the cheaper end of the market with its sub-10,000-price tag. Yet it's an indication of where Chinese buyers are at, budget conscious, but looking for value. The Giyom Xingian success highlights another trend, traditional automakers like Gili, making

inroads in EVs. That trend is turning Huawei. into a more notable Tesla rival. The Chinese tech giant partners with old-line car makers like Ceres, Cherry, and Beijing Auto. The Ito M8, Ceres, model, has become a top seller among high-end SUVs. The Model Y is still holding up, though,

ranking sixth in the overall market, but expect this market to become even more fiercely competitive. The Chinese government has said that it's ending the tax rebate program, for EV buyers by the end of December, guys. Eunice, this is wild to me because you've brought us this story here on overtime through China lens before about how cheap these Chinese-made EVs are, in part because of these local subsidies.

Is this a situation where, I mean, Tesla can even compete longer term because of the cost of production? I would say that Tesla does have a fighting chance because it's Tesla, and people do like Tesla, there's like a core fan base of Tesla fans. But I think that Tesla's problem is really an industry problem because we see that this is a very, very crowded market. The industry has a lot of Chinese companies, many of them state-backed or state-invested, even if they're private.

And so we have seen some consolidation in terms of sales, But there are a lot of companies that haven't exited the market, even though there are many analysts who argue that that should happen. And then Tesla does have some other specific issues that perhaps it might be able to work out. And that is that its business model is really different from a lot of Chinese companies that constantly are refreshing and putting out new models. And so that is one point that a lot of analysts have told me that Tesla would be better off if they managed to refresh. our models more more quickly here. Interesting. It's like refreshing hardware versus software in some ways. All right, Eunice Yunn. Thank you so much. Well, health care has been blowing away the rest of the S&P 500 this month. Up next, we're going to look at whether the sector can keep delivering

healthy returns and the stocks that could lead the way. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Alphabet soaring to an all-time high today with the stock ending the day up more than 6%. Investors cheered its new AI model upgrade, Gemini 3. Sales Force CEO and founder Mark Benioff writing on X this weekend, quote, I've used chat GPT every day for three years, just spend three hours on Gemini 3. I'm not going back. So is it too late to get into the stock. Well, with us is fast money trader and CNBC contributor, Guy Adami. Hello, Morgan. So Dan Nathan said, is Guy going live? I said, yeah, Dan, I mean, pay attention. I'm going on with Morgan and John right now. Sorry about that, Morgan. How are you? I'm doing great.

How are you? And tell Dan, I said hello. Morgan says hi to Karen and Mel as well. Miles is here, too. Everybody. The whole gang, the whole gang. All right, Alphabet, what do you think? Karen's largest position. She's sitting six feet away from me. She has been steadfast in Google now for years and she's been right to. Here's the problem. The last couple weeks, the move has been in a word, sort of parabolic. Traded almost three times normal volume today. Valuation, which was compelling, is get a little richer now. I think Karen would agree, and I would say, if you've missed this move, I don't think you're jumping into. it. You will get a pullback at some point. With that said, you know, their demise, as Quint said

in JAWS, was wildly exaggerated a few months ago. So Google has proven to be a great company that definitely has a moat. Problem is the move over the last couple weeks. It's been too much too soon, I think. All right, guy. Hey, let's... Hello, John. Are you familiar with that line in Jaws? My wife's my third wife's demise, he said. No, it's a demise. I don't remember that line. Mostly the visuals stuck with me there. Speaking of visuals, the health care chart. Ouch. The sector is outperforming the S&P 500 in November. The oath names

like Eli Lilly and Merck among winners, not at the top of the list, Novo Nordisk. So is this a story about Eli Lilly winning or can you invest? Can you buy the whole sector here? So in terms of Novo, when I say for a while, at least the last $40 or

$50, I've been trying to figure out, like, is this going to be the bottom? And I've said it a number of times every time, incorrect, So let's back out Novo for a second. Let's talk about Eli Lilly, which has clearly lapped the field. Here's the problem that there is it. It's trading two, three standard deviations above a Merck of Pfizer or Bristol-Myers. You know, maybe they deserve a premium valuation, but I don't think as much.

That's not to say that Eli Lilly is going to sell off, but what I think is happening right before our eyes, names like Bristol, names like Merck are finally getting off the mat. You look at Merck, which was meandering in the mid-80s for a long time, closed above $100 for the $100 for the first time in quite some time. And I think the street is finally realizing that, yeah, Ketruder's coming off patent, but they're making acquisitions and there are other things in the pipeline. So I think it's a catch-up trade on valuation. I think Bristol works. We've had Will Lewis on Innsmed. This is one that Melissa Lee uncovered years ago. This stock has been unbelievable. Now, if you pull up a chart, if your crack staff in EC can pull this up, you'll see

it's gone from 20 to 200, pretty much in a straight line over the last year. A lot of people would say stay away. I think you can still own this stock. I think it's going to be this generation's vertex or this generation's cell gene in terms of potentially being acquired or just continuing to grow. Interesting. All right. Let's shift gears here a little bit. When you say interesting, Morgan, you don't sound interested. You just sort of said it. I am. You should have been like, wow, geez whiz. It's a huge move. Where'd you come up with that one? It's a huge move. And that's where we have you on week after week guy, because this is the stuff that we're necessarily talking about as often as we should be.

Some of these, you know, under the radar winners. Yeah. All right. But I do want to talk to you about something else here, and that's crude oil. Because J.P. Morgan's out with their 2026 oil outlook today. The firm saying that abstinating intervention, the surplus is likely to climb in 2026. They forecast Brent prices are going to slip below $60 a barrel. They're going to drop into the low 50s by the final quarter and could close the year with a four handle.

Yeah, I heard that as well. The outlook worsens in 2020. So I'm going to ask you, where does oil trade from here, especially as we have these peace talks in Switzerland right now regarding the Ukraine war guy, and we have PPI tomorrow, and we know energy factors into inflation. That's a great question. I've thought for a while that crude has sort of found a base here. But, you know, with each passing day, it seemingly wants to go lower. Now, if it's going lower for the right reasons, the ones you just talked about, more production, people being, listen, peace breaking out, that's a great thing. It's going lower because you have some sort of global slowdown, or more importantly, a U.S. slowdown, not so much.

I'll say this. We're probably sort of in the sweet spot for our producers here, but you get much lower. Another $5 from here, it's going to really hurt the domestic producers. I will say it's great for companies like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, MPC, companies that buy all cheap and then sell the products rich. And if you look at the charts, they've been doing extraordinarily well. But crude below sort of 5550, and then I think you get into the danger zone. for U.S. production. I don't think Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco,

Philips are going to like that all that much. All right. We also keep having you back, because we're hoping you might let slip where you stash those gold bars, guy, maybe just one of these times. No, I told you, John, come to the house. My wife made me buy this safe.

It's a really funny story. I don't go to the Amazon or the Google machine. I physically go to stores. These things weigh a few hundred pounds. Like, I'm thinking I'm going to lug this thing back to the truck of my Tahoe. But no, I needed to get a couple people to help me lift this thing.

So we put it in the trunk. two of my boys I got we got it out of the car it's in my basement now she's like you got to move the safe I'm like where the hell am I going to move it to so if anybody wants to sort of knock me off the safe is in the basement of my house that's slow money though it's heavy so it's slow money guy thank you you can catch the rest of the fast money traders though at 5 p.m. Up next mike santoli's going to look at whether active mutual fund underperformance could lead to year end window dressing and a big rally

we'll be right back welcome back to overtime let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Retail and tech takes center stage when Best Buy, Dick Sporting Goods, Abercrombie, Coles, J.M. Smucker, and Alibaba, all report before the bell. Then right here on overtime, we'll get results from Dell H.P. Workday Z. Scaler NetApp and Urban Outfitters. And it's also a big day on the economic front with the September producer price index and retail sales reports finally coming out post shutdown. Also on tap, October pending home sales and November consumer confidence. Well, mutual fund managers have had a ride this year. Trailing the tape as hedge funds lean into concentrated AI and tech trades.

If markets hold steady, could we see a little year-end window dressing to catch up? Well, Mike Santoli's back. He's got thoughts. Hi, Mike. Yeah, Morgan, they'll probably have the motivation. The average large-cap mutual fund managers, only 29% of them are actually beating their benchmark year-to-date. That's lower than the typical average. But they don't have much cash either. Only 1.2% cash holdings. Here, Goldman Sachs calculates the concentrated most commonly held hedge fund positions as well as active mutual funds. You see really rough road for those concentrated mutual fund holdings at this point. But the shared favorites, the ones that mutual funds and hedge funds commonly own, actually have kept up reasonably well.

Some of the new names on that overlap list, Visa, MasterCard, Spotify, Verdev. Now, take a look at the publicly traded asset managers that are heavily weighted toward active mutual funds. And you'll see really been tough. This is a six-month chart. T. Row Franklin Resources, BlackRock have struggled here. It's a long-term decline in terms of traditional mutual funds. Obviously, BlackRock, lots of ETFs as well. But there's not a lot of faith on the street in that old business model, Morgan.

I mean, is this a secular shift for these names? And if so, where are folks putting their money to work, then, if not with some of these more traditional players? Well, interestingly, I mean, BlackRock, of course, as I mentioned, tons of ETF assets, the leader in that area. But they're very low fees. So from the public company standpoint, it's not always as fruitful. Now, BlackRock has bought a private credit manager. That's run them into a little bit of trouble.

And of course, they have the largest Bitcoin ETF. But that was a liability last week. When there were massive outflows, or the longer term, it's obviously been a winner. So it's a bit of a struggle. They're trying to find different asset classes where they can get some traction as they hold tight to the retirement fund business,

which still has a lot of regular old mutual funds in them. All right, Mike Santoli, thank you. Yeah. So we just talked about this last gasp of data that we're going to get tomorrow for the markets to digest before the holidays really take root here. What we're not getting a lot of is FedSpeak. Not a lot of FedSpeak tomorrow, but, you know, FedSpeak certainly helped today. Tomorrow, what we get in overtime is a really interesting challenge to the narrative today after the AI pop with Dell. That's a key company.

And also, Z-scaler on the cyber side, it is higher for the year. We'll see if it holds. Yeah, and of course, keep an eye on geopolitics as well because that is factoring into this market this week as well. That does it for us here at overtime.