Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 11/25/25

Episode Date: November 25, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

More green on the screen. Welcome back to overtime, the housing trade, seeing a nice pop today on increased hopes for a December rate cut. That is the end of regulation. The Epilepsy Foundation ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange, United Worldwide, doing the honors at the NASDAQ. We've got another bullish day for stocks, as the latest data inflation further cemented bets that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. The Russell 2000 was the standout with investors betting that a cut would be beneficial. for the small cap names, healthcare discretionary. Those are the leaders today for the S&P. Energy and utilities lagged. All the three names in the S&P healthcare sector

closed higher today. The Dow transports, that was a bright spot. Closing higher today for the third straight day as well. Outperforming the larger averages, nearly all 20 components were higher of more than 1%. The commodity complex seeing moves today. Oil falling more than 1%. Ukraine peace deal talks continue here.

And copper and gold both higher in trade. trade today as well. Yields moved lower and report that Kevin Hassett is now the front runner for the Fed chair and you had the 10-year treasury yields briefly dipping below 4% on that report. And that is the scorecard on Wall Street, but winter stay late. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm John Ford alongside Morgan Brennan ahead. We are awaiting earnings from Dell, HP, Z Scaler, Autodesk as tech stays in focus and we will hear from Urban Outfitters with that stock up 22% this year. Plus markets finally got economic data today. They showed a mixed picture. Inflation was lower, but so was consumer confidence in retail sales. You could call it

all dovish. We're going to speak with Treasury Secretary Counselor Joe LaVorne. And we'll tackle the shakeup in the AI trade as positive sentiment shifts from invidia to Alphabet. Should your portfolio change with that shift? Well, for more on today's markets moves. Let's get to Christina Parts in otherlas at the NASDAQ. Christina. Morgan, the NASDAQ just logged its third straight day gains as investors really bet the Fed will cut rates next month. Delayed economic data that you guys talked about gave us some clues on consumer spending and inflation, and small caps are loving it. The Russell 2000 is actually leading all the major indices just over the past week, climbing 2% today, but higher over the past week. And speaking of consumers, retailers are

proving they're just not done yet. Abercombe and Fitz shot up 37.5%. I had to just double check after raising its profit forecast thanks to strong Hollister sales, lifting the whole sector with names like Gap, Carter's, Victoria's Secret, all closing higher. Carter's 4% higher as an example, but the real winner is Coles. Up 42% today, it's best day ever on solid earnings and news that the interim CEO is getting the job permanently. Now, on the flip side, big tech had a little bit of a rougher day. Envidia and AMD both fell after reports that meta will tap Google's AI chips instead,

raising fresh concerns about competition in the AI race. Still, Google's parent company Alphabet keeps inching closer and closer to that four, trillion market cap. You can see Google closing one and a half percent higher today, which brings us to the broader AI trade, Oracle. The poster child for AI infrastructure spending concerns closed about 1.6% lower. And what is now, it's a worst month since 2001, a sign that investors are starting to ask harder questions about who's actually making money in this AI boom. John? Christina, thank you. Now to the bond market where the 10-year was tap dancing on 4% again today, Rick Santelli is in Chicago. Rick.

It definitely was dancing there, but let's take a better look at the data. You talk about a Roershack inflation report. Many are calling for the PPI, definitely cooler than expected, but I'm sorry, it wasn't. Two out of the three monthly numbers were sequentially higher, and if you look at the year-over-year data, we had two out of three of those sequentially higher, and all very close to 3%. We're not making any progress. The headline month-over-month number was up three-tenths,

Now, granted, that was as expected, but it's four-tenths higher than our last look. And when it comes to the data on consumer conference from the conference board, it was a real washout. All three were less than expected. All three were sequentially lower than our last look. But yet, maybe the asset news regarding the Fed might have put a boost to the buying that pushed those yields down a bit. But then again, is it really going to, if he gets picked, is he going to make yields move lower? I doubt it. Richard Fisher had some good answers.

Look at a 12-hour chart. And you can see briefly we're under 4%. We're hovering there. Let's look at a year-to-date. Look at the right side. Now, that's a year-to-date. We're down about 57 basis points from where we close. And the right side, you see in October, those closes under 4%.

Let's zoom in on those. We've had six closes under 4%. One of those on October 22nd, the low-yield close of the year, at 3.95 in change. But we really have a hard time staying below 4%. And that really is the point. But here's something very interesting. Fed fund futures, when they move up in price, they're putting in more easing. Let's look at Fed fund futures against the S&P futures since last Friday.

They've started to get on top of each other and correlate. And the higher Fed funds goes, building in the propensity of an ease. It's up at 80% now, the more the stock market likes it. Surprise. John back to you. Lots of surprises in the market. Rick, thanks. Now let's get into the tech trade with the next guest right here on set. Dan is from Wed Bush here to tell us how to play the AI revolution, why he says we're not in a bubble. Dan on AI, this market has been ridiculously flighty. I'm old enough to remember when open AI was going to kill Google search and when the narrative was Apple's dead money because it missed AI with Apple intelligence and that Oracle is the fourth hypersco. That was a recent one. You've got to do your homework, not get caught up in each week's hype. So with that in mind, what are your picks? I mean, look, that's why, I mean, we spend our time in Asia and around the world, right?

Because what the demand looks like. And we talk about our top 10 picks here. You know, I think on the hyperscalers, to me, Microsoft continues to be the one that's just table pounder here. Relative to what I view is sort of the enterprise that's right in their backyard, everything we see in Azure. Look, 20% of the deals that we're seeing from Microsoft to Amazon to Google have been accelerate over the last few weeks, despite what we're seeing here. Palantir to me on the use case side continues to be front and center. And then that's when I get the valuation worries, but that is really, I think, right at the epicenter of what we're seeing. And it continues.

This is just the start. Dan, hang tight. Dell earnings are out. The stock is initially popping a bit here in overtime. Christina Parts of Nevelas has the numbers. Christina. John Dell delivered a mixed report. The earnings came in strong at $2.59 per share, beating expectations, but revenues of $27.01 billion came in slightly light. Gross margins, though, 20.7% beating estimates despite these higher memory prices, many concerns about that going into earnings. The story, though, was really about the split between their two main businesses, the Infrastructure Solutions Group, that's servers, networking, storage, that it beat estimates. But the Client Solutions Group, which is PCs and laptops, fell a little bit short.

Dell raised guidance across the board. They're now expecting full-year revenue of 111.11. to 112.2 billion dollars, that's well above Wall Street estimates. And then the same thing for the earnings per share guidance. It also came in higher at $9.92. And lastly, for AI exposure, the CFO is saying in the release that they're raising their AI shipment guidance to roughly $25 billion up from the previous $20 billion target. And I'm also seeing just on the headlines that Dell is going to be working with IRN, which is they operate data centers in Canada. So perhaps, there's not really a market reaction in that stock. But the two will be working together to build data centers in Canada.

All right. Christina, thank you. Dan, how much is Dell swung around by just how much of an allocation Michael Dell gets from Jensen Huang at NVIDIA? Because AI is so much the story of why the stock has gone up. If you own the stock, that's what you care about. I mean, you're not focused on P. You're focused on the AI play relative to the read-throughs for NVIDIA. And it's, well, it speaks to what we're talking about.

The second, third, fourth derivatives are just starting to play out across the AI revolution. I think those that call it a bubble, you know, it's easy to call it a bubble because you don't see in the spreadsheet. I believe this is a tech bull market goes on another two years. Look at Alphabet is another example. New York City Cab Drive was bearish in Alphabet to start the year. Now look, because the reality is AI is a tail. And for them, we're seeing that, you know, even with Broadcom and, you know, everything was seeing on the chip side. I mean, yesterday the president's signed an executive order for Genesis mission.

And this is the big AI project that is going to harken back to, you know, the post-World War two years of Manhattan project here. Is there a government backstop here? Is that one more reason why you should be buying into this bull market for AI? Yeah. And look, I mean, as we spend so much time in D.C., the reality is, for the first time in 30 years, U.S. is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And when it comes to what we've seen from big tech, I think there is a government backstop. Because the reality is that it's led by godfather of AI, Jensen, VIN. led by Microsoft. It's web from what you see with Open AI. And look, the worries about the

too big to fail and some of the concerns, we are still like we talked about. We're top of the third, maybe one out, in terms of this AI game. And I think we have two more years left in this tech bowl market. And that really continues to be the core here from all of our checks. I just want to go back to Alphabet as it does trade at a record high right now. And that is how much of a game changer is Gemini 3 and how quickly is the technology changing in general in terms of winners and losers. Like how to gauge that, how to think about that as an investor.

Yeah, because backwards against the wall for really for a few years. Now you're seeing a major change there from Gemini and ultimately I think Apple that's really going to walk down the aisle with them from a Gemini partnership that's going to be their AI piece. And then you look what's happened on chips.

You look at the sum of the park. Look, I could argue Alphabet, you have another 80 hundred hours upside relative to the AI piece that's not factored in yet into the story. Okay, Dan Ives. Great to be here. Thank you.

Good to have me here on set. All right, well, Urban Outfitter's earnings are out, and Courtney Reagan has those numbers for us. Hi, Corey. Hi, Morgan, add this to another good quarter for retail. Shares popping here, 15, almost 16%. Urban Outfitter's earnings coming in stronger than expected at $1.28 compared to $1.20. Revenue is also stronger than expected. 1.53 billion.

Consensus was $1.47 billion. Third quarter comparable sales up 8% well better than the $1.5.5%. than the 5% expected. Urban Outfitters, so just that brand, the namesake brand, comps up 12.5%. That's three times as good as what the street was expecting. Anthropology comps up 7.6%. Free people comps up 4.1%.

Free people slightly disappointing based on what the street had been expecting, but still quite good when you're looking at retail overall. Comments from the CEO basically just saying trends observed during the quarter remain consistent. No guidance given here. the conference call does start at 5 o'clock where we'll get a little bit more color. Back over to you. Yeah, another big stock reaction to another earnings report from a retailer today that's been positive.

So shares up 16% right now, Courtney Reagan. Thank you. Up next, Joe Livornia, counselor to Treasury Secretary Besson on whether the latest reading on inflation, new concerns about the consumer, will prompt the Fed to cut rates again next month and his take on the economy. And later, a top market strategist on the sector that could benefit most from more rate cuts in the new year. We're right back. Welcome back to overtime. Investors eating up shares of Brinker International today. City upgrading the owner of Chili's restaurants, that chain from neutral to buy, hiking the price target from 144 to 176.

That implies 25% upside from yesterday's clothes. The analysts there citing decreasing beef costs following the removal of tariffs in Brazil, as well as strong traffic growth from younger diners. All right, well, up next, Mike Santoli digs into a double dose of data. that could provide some much needed stress relief for consumers, what it all means for retail stocks. And later, Fast Money's Tim Seymour, on whether you should be betting on a rebound for Oracle and Palantir to stocks that went from market leaders to market laggards this month. We got more after this break.

Welcome back to overtime. HP earnings are out. Sima Modi has the number. John, for the fourth quarter, HP reporting earnings and revenue that beat revenue tied to personal systems and printing came in higher than consensus, but the first quarter guide is weaker than expected. The company also announcing a headcount reduction of 4 to 6,000 jobs and total cost savings about of a billion dollars by the end of fiscal 2028 tied to the broader AI adoption. CEO Enrique Lores telling CNBC that this will help accelerate the company's product development.

He adds that his team is taking a prudent approach to its guide. And on the topic of rising memory prices, HP is implementing aggressive actions, he says, like finding lower cost suppliers and will also look to raise price of their own products as well. Shares down about 6.5%. Morgan Scott. John.

All right, Simumodi, thank you. This morning, we finally got the PPI report for September. It showed wholesale prices rising less than expected. It's a sign that inflation may be cooling, but concerns are still brewing over the consumer. Confidence hitting its lowest level since April on elevated concerns about the jobs picture.

We also got a softer retail sales number this morning. Where does that leave the Fed? Where does it leave the economy? Joining us now, Joe LaVornia, he is counselor to the Treasury Secretary, and Joe, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. Thank you. So let's start right there, because the takeaway here from the data this morning is that it was dovish,

but that's not necessarily a good thing if you start digging through some of the labor data we got. Where do we stand on the economy? Economy is in good shape. I mean, the Atlanta Fed, the last check I had seen, was growth was at 4-2, and it was based on good consumer spending and cap-ax. Retail sales were a little bit softer. It was after a six-tenths gain previously. The weekly chain store numbers through November, which is much timelier.

Morgan are tracking about 6%, so that's pretty good. On the PPI, you mentioned there's cooling. We're 2.7 year-over-year. The final year of the prior administration, we were up around 3.5%. Commodity prices are down near a 52-week low. We're seeing energy prices moderate. Inflation expectations are moving down. all those things tell us that the inflation outlook is very good.

The Fed should be responding both to the inflation outlook as well as the fact that rates by most members' admission are still above neutral. Yeah, and certainly there's a big focus, increasing focus, and we've heard that from a number of Fed officials just in the last couple of days with a more dovish tilt in some of their commentary, that there are concerns about the labor market. So what do those cracks look like? How concerned is the administration about that? and how to think about how that factors into these rate cuts, because why the Fed cuts is going to matter as much as the Fed cutting? Well, inflation's a lagging indicator, and I gave a whole bunch of reasons why inflation is not a problem, and the yield curve is very flat relative to the funds rate.

So that suggests the market wants easing. The labor market started weakening very dramatically in 2023. We noticed after the fact there were 2 million more downward revisions in jobs than what had been reported at the time. As much as the prior folks might say we had a good labor market, we didn't, things were slowing. I think it's optimism around the president's policies, especially on the capital expensing and what will be soon finalized, the full expensing of structures. It's really an investment boom, and that's kept GDP at 4%.

Labor market, there is some risk, there is some weakness there, and that's why you need lower rate so that next year we get a broad-based boom that is across the board with even higher real wage gains, which we were having through the summer before we lost the shutdown that's going to hurt growth in the current quarter. And then, of course, a lot of the data now, unfortunately, is stale. But if you're the Fed, based on what many of these governors have said, they're supposed to be

cutting rates. Yeah. Speaking of the Fed, I'm going to take a little bit of a turn here, because the Treasury Secretary was on CNBC this morning. He said we could have a new Fed chair named by Christmas. Flash forward to a couple hours ago, we've got reports that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner. Markets really like that. The 10-year Treasury yield

dip below 4 percent on that report. well want to get your response well the secretary said this morning you had five great candidates so you know the market might be rallying on the fact we're just getting closer to a decision being made but the secretary will review everything and they'll give the president his recommendation of the three finalists or the final finalist and then the president will make the decision so we'll see what happens they're all great candidates I can't say anything more Joe given that tariffs haven't had the negative overall impact that

some feared and overall consumer spending is holding up What's your take on why consumer confidence is so shaken and why in particular college grads are having such trouble finding jobs? Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure why the confidence numbers are as weak as they are. They've been weak for a while. The good news, John, is you're not seeing it at the small business level. You're seeing still very high readings on small businesses, and those are the ones that create the jobs. What's happening to think at perhaps at the newly graduate level, kids are graduating from school, is that the job market, the trend had been slowing.

It's been slowing for a while, and there's concerns about AI. And also, I think, depends, John, too, in part, what some of these students are majoring in. I mean, if you're in the areas in hot demand, then, you know, you find employment. But there's no question that things need to get better on the labor side, which is why we're working with the one big, beautiful bill, the CAPEX expensing, which is, basically, we've had about 15% first half capital spending gains, which is the best since, I believe, 2011. And in the past, KAPX always leads to hiring. And it's not just AI. It's business equipment. It's transportation equipment.

So if our forecast is right and we're very confident in 26, the labor market is going to turn for everybody, especially the new graduates. So for the smallest businesses, some of the alternative data that we've been looking at here on over time, including from Intuit, suggests that they are actually not growing their workforce as much, maybe even cutting a bit, despite the fact that they're doing OK on the top line. Makes me wonder if this is the sort of thing that rate cuts can really cure if there are things like AI concerns mixed in in there. Are cutting, lower rates going to convince people to hire who are holding back for some of those reasons? Look, on the interest rates, there's a lot of sectors, old school manufacturing, housing, construction, broadly speaking.

Those interest-sensitive sectors are important. Money's fungible and spending in one area translates to money elsewhere. And when you have policy that's tight by the Fed's own admission, you want to make sure, John, we could calibrate rates so that it gives the economy its best chance to excel. Also, those low rates, which will reduce the cost of capital, help improve equity valuations through a better discount factor. So everything is kind of integrated. And it's the argument that many Fed governors, including the Fed chair himself, have made. Lower rates will help, but also the deregulation the administration is putting forward. There's been a lot that's done on the financial services side.

that will add money and credit to the economy, get the economy growing next year in a broad-based fashion. So every bit will help. And the GDP numbers look good. We need now the labor market to improve. And I think, you know, we're going to get it. We will see an improvement next year. All right. Joe LaVornia, great to have you on. Thank you for joining us. Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you. You too. Happy Thanksgiving. Now let's turn to the consumer. Could lower energy costs and falling yields spell relief at the pump and a cheaper financing backdrop, and could that cushion potentially stressed out shoppers? Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is with us to give us a pulse

check. Mike? Yeah, John, so there are some offsets. So look at the trajectory here of the two-year note yield alongside WTI crude oil, obviously move in the same direction. It's not unusual. Different scales, of course, but you see the shape of these charts is very similar. And today, you did see both take another leg lower two-year yields on kind of rebuilding those expectations for Fed rate cuts as well as, you know, oil. It's been acting like an oversupplied market already, and then the notion that maybe there'll be some kind of a peace agreement in Ukraine that also fed into it. So yes, offsets, it's not necessarily the same as, you know, more jobs and more, more incomes, but it definitely helps. Take a look here, too, at the equal-weighted consumer discretionary

sector. It was actually a big outperformer today along with industrials and things like regional banks. But on a one-year basis, you see it's basically gone sideways. Remember, we had the big post-election rally in November of last year. It was actually right around this time that it flattened out a little bit. So you're going up against that starting point. But it does show you that we've had a bit of a reset lower in expectations for how strong the consumer was going to be. and now we're popping back up, trying to do a little bit better than Treadwater, as the chart says here. The offset idea is nice, but on the flip side of that, isn't it a bit weird that the consumer's confidence is so shaky with oil and some other things being where they are? To a degree, yes. It seems as if the confidence measure, first of all, the survey week for the consumer confidence report was during the shutdown.

I do think that the news flow in general in terms of a low, higher type of environment is taking its toll, as is just the elevated price level, right? We haven't been able to tell consumers that inflation has calmed down for like three years, okay? And, you know, through the Fed tightening cycle and now since then, and it just seems as if you're in a societal bad mood, it's partly for that reason. And I think that's largely what you're seeing as well as, again, you know, it just does look as if job opportunities have tightened up a little bit. We'll have a little more on that later, Morgan. Okay, sounds good, because we will see you later in the show. Mike Santoli, thank you. Well, it's time now for a CABC news update with McKenzie Sagalus.

Hey, Mac. Hey, Morgan. President Trump says he will send his special envoy Steve Whitkoff to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Meanwhile, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will meet with Ukrainian officials as the U.S. works to hammer out a peace. plan to end the war in Ukraine. The president also said the proposal has been fine-tuned, and there are only a few remaining points of disagreement. Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser announced today that she will not seek a fourth

term after more than a decade in office. In a video announcement, Bowser said it was time to pass a baton on to the next set of leaders. Her third term was marked by the president's surge of law enforcement in the nation's capital. And rush hour four is reportedly in the works at Paramount, thanks to the influence of President Trump. Sam of War first reported that the president requested the studio revived the buddy cop franchise. According to Variety, the new installment will see the return of stars Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker.

Back to you guys. All right. Mack, thank you. Up next, a pair of top strategists on whether the Bulls are ready to run wilds through the end of the air. Plus, Dell's analyst call just getting started. We're going to bring you any highlights as we count down to the other calls that kick off at the top of the hour. Be right back. Welcome back to overtime.

Stock's ending the day. On a high note, the Dow up more than 650 points, making a three-day win streak as hopes grow for a Fed rate cut. Small Caps, Russell 2000, the real standout today up 2%. Urban Outfitters, a big mover in overtime. The stock soaring about 11.5% right now as EPS and revenue beat. Third quarter comp sales were up 8% versus estimates of 5.2. HP moving lower right now. You can see it they're down almost 6%.

the company beating on EPS and revenue, but saying it will increase investments in some areas to integrate AI into its product portfolio. HP also announcing it'll cut 6,000 employees in a push to adopt AI company-wide. Now, Z-scaler, more than a, let's see, more than a 8%, well, more than a 7% drop, not quite 8%. Despite EPS and revenue beating here, the company giving second quarter revenue guidance above estimates, though. And Netapp, the storage company, moving higher as its earnings. earnings deliver EPS and revenue beating. It's up 4%. The company giving third quarter revenue guidance above estimates. Well, the market's ending higher today, as you just heard from John, as investors jump in on the dovish turn in Fed policy, reignited momentum and some of the big

cap tech names. Will the stabilization continue into December? Well, let's bring in JP Morgan Asset Management Portfolio Manager Phil Campreale and Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Senior Global Market Strategist Scott Wren. Gentlemen, great to have you here. Phil, you're on set. Welcome. I'm going to start this conversation with you because one of the things that stood out to me in your notes is this idea that 2025 has been a return to normal for the markets. What does that mean? Yeah, it means that global diversification doesn't own just own seven stocks in the U.S. And that fixed income in the portfolio could actually work. The dollar doesn't go up every year, which obviously impacts taking risk abroad. But most importantly, we've gotten back to normal on the rate side. I stare at the 10-year note every day. I think it's one of the most important indicators. And as you know, last year, the Fed easing the federal funds rate, technically, but tightened

policy because long-end rates went up, which mean more to the U.S. consumer than the federal funds rate will ever. So we took the opportunity last week to add to risk in the sell-off because of that fundamental story, Morgan, that we think remains intact. We have double-digit earnings growth in 2006. We got a little pullback in multiples. We went from like 23 to 22 times. So we got a little pullback there.

But most importantly, it's this interest rate environment that's cooperating, rate volatility at its lowest levels since the Fed started their hiking campaign back in March of 2022. And the Goldman Sachs financial conditions indicator are also showing easy conditions for the U.S. consumer. So I think it's kind of a green light to take risk on both sides of the balance file. Okay. I want to get Scott in this conversation, but first, 4% on the tenure? Yeah. Does that feel healthy? Does that feel normal? Is that where it should be? It feels totally normal. And as history has proven, that the 10-year note should be something that looks like nominal growth. Real GDP growth plus inflation. If you have 2% GDP growth next year, you have 2 to 2.5% inflation next year.

That puts the 10-year note exactly where it should be. Scott, how do you feel about where the markets are now? There's been a lot of swinging around with this AI trade. Can you believe that the markets are trading on fundamentals here and not? priced, okay, not for perfection because it was there a few weeks ago, but a little too close to it. Yeah, John, I don't think the market's priced for perfection, but certainly hoping for a lot of good things to happen, which, you know, let's face it, that this AI spend, it's going to keep going. The companies that have been doing very well, making a lot of money, seeing a lot of cash flow, that's going to continue to happen as we go through 2026. And, you know, really for

us, you know, and you and I have talked before about this, I mean, we're leaning towards stocks. We'd like to lean more towards stocks. You know, you would have asked me three months ago if we would have had a 10% pullback by now, I would have said, you know, absolutely. But we just haven't. So, you know, we took advantage of the pullback back in April, and that's a long time ago now. We continue to not sit on our hands. And basically, it looks to us, you know, we cut back to a neutral on technology sector. We had been overweight that for a long time. We did the same thing in communication services. So we've trimmed there, but if you think about it, you know, those two sectors together are pretty close to 50% of the value of the S&P 500, even when you're

even weight. So that's a load right there. And we've been moving funds into, you know, industrials, utilities, financials. Those are really the sectors that we've been buying. I want to ask you about that. Can you really diversify in this market into utilities and industrials when so many of them are starting to get influenced by the AI narrative as well. Do you have to go elsewhere to truly diversify out of the AI impacts? I think you do because, you know, and really, to be honest with you, I mean, we're moving into those sectors because of their AI impact. And so, you know, it's just kind of a cheaper way to get some exposure. There's a little bit of diversification there. So I think you need to

still lean toward, you know, technology, obviously. obviously, but you need to get a little bit of a different angle on that. And that's what we're really trying to do. I don't think you want to diversify too far away from the companies that are really growing and have the potential for cash flow and earnings. Because I don't think it's going to be a whole heck of a lot of difference over the next year than it has been the last year. And Phil, I did want to get one to you on risk since you talked about that. Is Bitcoin a decent proxy for the risk trade that you have some confidence in? Yeah, I think there's certainly a retail component to sentiment and Bitcoin. I also think gold is part of that as well. But ultimately, it's the most, you know, heavily held stocks in the world,

which are those MAG-7 names that I think are going to be the ultimate sentiment indicators. And again, if the Federal Reserve at this December meeting, again, whether they go or not go, we'll see with the labor report that comes up. But it's more can they control rate volatility into next year that keeps, you know, some sort of semblance for mortgage rates. You know, gas prices are, you know, hovering right at $3 a gallon. All that stuff, I think, means a lot. And, John, you asked a lot about confidence.

I think that's a, that's an inconsistency here with the story. It's confident just so old, but it also proves to us that the market's not euphoric. You know, and other times when University of Michigan Confidence was higher, we saw euphoric environments. But the fact that confidence is down here, the fact that there's $7.5 trillion in money market funds. Every time I'm on with you guys, I talk about that. that proves to me that the market isn't overextended and not hoping just for good news. I think the fundamental story still wins. Okay. Scott, 2026, what are you expecting for the markets here?

And what are you expecting not only for stocks, but for fixed income as we are having this conversation about stabilization and rates? Well, Morgan, we've got a 7,500 target out there on the S&P 500, which I think is very doable in the rate environment and in the earnings. growth environment that we're expecting. As far as fixed income goes, you know, for me now, you know, if inflation was two to two and a half percent next year, I could, you know, I could live with yields that were lower than 4 percent. That's not where we think it is. It's going to be. We've got a 2.8 percent number out there. I think, you know, if we're not correct there,

it might be just a little bit lower. So, you know, for me, for yields, let's say the 10-year yield to move down meaningfully from where it is, I mean, something would have to be wrong. with the economy in our opinion. And so we're looking at 2.4% growth rate next year. You know, could it be a little bit higher than that? It might be. But 2.4%, I would argue, in a $27 trillion economy is pretty darn good. But if we're wrong and growth is a lot slower, could we see a three and a quarter yield or something like that on the 10 year? You know, maybe we could, but that's definitely not what we're looking for. I think the 10 year yield, you know, if we drifted up to four and a half, 4.75, you know, somewhere like that, that wouldn't surprise me

at all, especially in a better growth environment. All right. We'll keep watching it, of course. Scott, Phil, thanks to you both. Happy Thanksgiving, guys. Happy Thanksgiving. You too. Up next, much more on all the overtime earnings actions. We count down to H.P.'s call with analysts. Plus, best money's Tim Seymour gives us the trade on this mystery stock that's been heating up lately after underperforming for most of the year. Can you guess what it is?

Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. The housing trade seeing a nice pop today on increased hopes for December rate cut. The sector ETF, the ITB, rallying more than 4.5% today in the regular trading session. Leaders include D.R. Horton,

Linar, Beezer, and The Lazy Boy, the move also lifting shares of Home Depot, which led the Dow today posting its best day since April, and that, of course, after a sell-off in that stock on Earned, last week, John. Indeed. Well, up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on whether now's the time to jump back into some of this year's tech leaders that have had a rough November. And as we had to break, CNBC spoke to small businesses across the country about the impact of tariffs, including

how they've forced some entrepreneurs to raise cash through GoFundMe. that stop babies from dropping and throwing all of their toys on the ground. I started out going to Expos, and then I was on Shark Tank, so that got a lot of national exposure. And then I was able to get into Walmart and Target. I literally had to cash in my retirement this week

to stay afloat. And my brother, who has been with me for four years, is having to go back to his old job. And because of the 145% tariffs being in place for so long, we ran out of stock and didn't have any revenue coming in for six weeks. We had to go fund me to help raise the money to cover the cost of tariffs so that we could get product in. But now I don't know if we're going to be able to get product in after that.

The cost of baby items across the board has gone up 16% just since March. Price of cribs is up $50. Car seats are up $40. Strollers are up $100. So with new parents who don't necessarily need our products are having to pay so much more for the essential. that they don't have the budget anymore to buy these nice to have things. I was in the military for over 10 years. I deployed multiple times. I came home.

I got my education. I started my family. And I started my own business. But it's honestly, I'm starting to question what even is the American dream at this point? Because I feel like I've done everything right. And now everything feels so wrong. Welcome back to overtime. Oracle's down nearly 25% in November.

After a massive jump the last two months, the stock saw a big rally on strong cloud growth results back in September. But credit concerns began to weigh on sentiment, now one of the worst performing names in the S&P 500 this month. It was actually the projections of growth that got the stock moving. Let's bring in Seymour, Asset Management founder and chief investment officer, fast money trader. Tim Seymour on this one, Tim, good to see you. Hey, John. Great to be here. Oracle's up like 3x and 3 years, but down 33% in two months and close to flat over 12 months. What do you do with it?

Yeah, I have it down 40% from that September 10th announcement. And it's the open AI concentration risk meets the battleground for the AI debt story. And it would be easy to pile on and say it's time to sell it further here. But I have to say somewhere around these levels, I mean, you're talking about even before they get to some of the growth they talked about from 27 onward with some of the recent announcements. You're talking about 21 times 26 EBIT, which means it's probably in line with this historical. I don't love the change in the margin profile. I don't love the uncertainty. I also think that the froth that was where we were 40% higher is largely out of this stock.

So I want to shift gears with you, Tim, Palantir, because this is another high-flying name. It's been selling off in November. It's down 18%. Companies still up a solid 100% plus for the year of those. Let's put that in context. Forward PE, still a whopping 178. What do you do from here? I think this is one that continues to me.

lower, certainly in a tape that's up and down as we've been, although we can make that call. We'll certainly talk about that tape on fast money. I think Palantir is a case of where the enterprise side of it was 100% growth. They had no growth in Europe. It's heavily reliant on the U.S. government. As we know, I'm just not sure you can have the kind of a record year we had next year. I think the market has told you over the last three months, even with names like meta, that they are concerned about valuations.

And I think there's more uncertainty here than there are for other high multiple names. I'm going to leave this one alone, Morgan. Okay. Now, Tim, on the flip side, lots of Apple doubters at the beginning of the year, but the momentum's picking up. Apple's got a record high today. Still worried about Apple intelligence, or does it look like they have a chance to wow people next year? I think Apple Intelligence is something that gives me reason to want to buy the stock, meaning I don't think Apple intelligence is in the stock. And I think the story here around, okay, maybe not a lot of product innovation, CEO changes kind of say that it sounds like the new guy is going to be a little more focused on products and whatever the next iPhone is.

But until there's another iPhone, there's an iPhone now that I think is how people will consume AI. And I think that DOJ case gave both obviously Google but also Apple a green light. I think the story here is one of a company that has at times been misunderstood. And yet if you've been a medium-term investor, not even a long-term investor, not even a long-term. term. We know how well that's gone. Even since 2002 over the last three years, you've outperformed the S&P by staying in Apple. You've outperformed it by almost 25% on a three-year basis during which has been one of the

greatest three-year runs for the stock market. So I'm Long Apple. I actually think AI is your friend and it's not in the price. Okay. Well, I know we're talking a lot about the AI trade and even the rotation under the hood in the AI trade. But, you know, equal weight S&P, strong advance today. And the small caps. Russell 2000 finishing up more than 2%. Does this have legs? Well, I'll leave my disparagement for small caps for another show, but I do think that this is a case where rotation continues to look interesting. Look at the breakout in health care, look at where

retail has gone, look at the sense that the market is looking for that equal weighted exposure at a time when I think you're getting some follow-through from the broader, call it, economy. Industrials have led all year. Health care was underperforming. I think it makes a lot of sense to stay in this trade, and actually I would lean even further into it. All right. Tim, thank you. See you in just a few minutes here on CNBC. Also, don't miss T.D. Cowan's senior retail analyst Oliver Chen on Fast Money as well, getting into all of today's retail action, what to expect ahead of a big Black Friday. And there was a lot of retail action today. Well, up next, Mike Santoli, breaking down an unusually bullish view on stocks and whether that could be a contrarian indicator for this market. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you set up for tomorrow's trade. today. Deere's the only big name on the earnings calendar and on the economic front will get

the September durable goods report and weekly jobless claims. Well, confidence data, sending mixed signals. Consumers seem bullish on stocks, but less so on the job market. What's behind the disconnect and what could it mean for the markets? Mike Santoli's back. He's going to break it down for us. Hi, Mike. Yeah, Morgan, the core of the consumer confidence report today from the conference board was certainly downbeat, just the overall confidence levels, expectations of consumers And also the job market kind of hovered at these somewhat softer levels. This is the so-called labor market differential within the report. It basically the number of people who say jobs are plentiful,

subtracting the number of people who say jobs are hard to get. It leaves us above zero, so still net positive, but well down from where we were early part of this year and into last year. And not too far from, you know, levels that have coincided with recessions in the past, although we're coming from a different direction here. And it does correlate pretty well with the direction of the unemployment rate. Some of the consumer confidence numbers don't really feed that well into broader consumption trends. But this is something to keep an eye on.

And obviously one of the reasons the market has been a little bit anxious about the likelihood of the Fed doing some more of those so-called insurance rate cuts. Now, take a look at within the consumer confidence report. They also ask, do you think the stock market will be higher in the next 12 months? And what's interesting about this is this consumer sample is not necessarily made up a very active investors. So when they seem to have a prevailing opinion about the direction of stocks, it sometimes mean the words gotten out about the market. And maybe it's a slight or kind of, you know, general contrarian indicator. That kind of was the case here. That was late last year.

We had a very rough first quarter. You could also look back to, you know, end of 1999 as well. So it's just one thing to keep in mind that the strength. the strength recently of the stock market has not gone unnoticed by, you know, the broader public, although I have to say that one did not exactly serve as a reliable contrarian signal because that was probably right after the 2016 election, which gave way to a very strong 2017 before we did get 2018 turbulence taking things down just a little bit, Morgan. Yeah, it's super fascinating.

It kind of takes me back to what Joel LaVorne was talking about the consumer confidence numbers earlier and maybe perhaps the impact, and we don't fully know that yet. around government shutdown and what that's done to some of this data as well. So perhaps time will tell. I do want to get your thoughts, though, given the data picture we had today, and given the fact that the market seems pretty hellbent, if you will, on this notion that the Fed is now going to cut again next month. We talked about Russell 2000 with Tim Seymour, but the Dow transports everything but

Uber higher today. Is that just a reflection of this rate cut possibility? Is it a reflection of economic strength going to 2026? I think they executed the sort of rate cut playbook a fair bit. You did see the cyclical sectors outside of tech do very well. And, of course, they had been lagging to a fair degree. We're also within this window. There's a pretty plausible consensus building among economists that you're at least in the first quarter going to get some tailwind, some accelerants.

You're going to get heavier tax refunds. That's gone from unnoticed to everybody kind of banking on it. But I think we're within a close enough window to that period when it feels as if you, can maybe do some things with cyclicals. In terms of small cap Russell 2000, I still think there's plenty to be proven there. We're just rising to levels that were first seen in November of 2021. Okay. Mike Santoli, thank you.

And of course, we'll get some more consumer data with Black Friday. Unprecedented number of Americans expected to hit stores. But are they going to spend? That'll be the key question. Gotten really used to disconnect between sentiment and the numbers. We'll see if that continues. Yeah. Meantime, all the major averages finishing today higher.

Again, that does it for us here at overtime.