Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 1/13/26

Episode Date: January 13, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That's the end of regulation. Pag Bank ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. New York sirens of the professional women's hockey league doing the honors at the NASDAQ. Stocks mostly lower today. The Dow, what did take the worst of it, you can see there, it is off about eight-tenths of 1%. But coming off the worst levels in the final minutes of trading, smaller losses for the S&P 500 and for the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000, down just slightly about 1-10th of 1% financials. the worst performing sector and the biggest drag on the Dow, Visa continuing to react to President Trump's proposed interest rate cap.

J.P. Morgan, lower following its results, much more on the banks coming up. So what's balancing the markets in support here? Boeing reporting strong delivery numbers for the fourth quarter, Caterpillar continuing its leadership, crossing the $300 billion market cap level for the first time. Both those stocks have double digits so far this year, and it is only the middle of January. Chevron, getting a boost from higher oil prices as well.

Crude was up by about 2.5%. Most of the metals have been down on the day, but you can't quite stop silver. It got to $88 an ounce today before a slight pullback. Bitcoin also higher today, a gain of more than 3%. And Warner Brothers' discovery with a late spike on reports to Netflix is considering amending its offer to make it all cash. That is the scorecard on Wall Street.

Welcome to Closing Bell overtime. I'm Mike Santoli. As I mentioned, financials dragging on the markets today as the banks begin to report earnings, Bank of America, City Group and Wells Fargo, all due out tomorrow morning. We'll get you ready for those results. And the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference underway in San Francisco this week. We'll talk to the brand new CEO of Dexcom. The stock has been a laggard in and up market. We'll discuss his turnaround plan. Let's start, though, with the big market moves today. Finanials, once again leading the way lower. Christina Parts-Nevelis is at the NASDAQ with more on the action. Mike, I'm going to start with J.P. Morgan because shares did fall despite beating earnings. J.P. Morgan's CFO also signaled pushback against President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Goldman Sachs followed J.P. Morgan lowered today. You mentioned some other names that are reporting tomorrow. Goldman Morgan Stanley are going to be out on Thursday to continue that list. And then you also saw credit card stocks really extend losses today as the president really continued to target the sector. Today, he actually urge lawmakers to support a measure forcing larger banks to offer retailers the option to just bypass Visa and MasterCard for transactions.

And so that's why you're seeing Visa MasterCard down over around 3.5%. And the same thing for American Express, also down half a percent. As for the rest of the market, though, the first eight trading days show the same trend from 2025, essentially, by every corner of AI and use software to fund it. Look at the one-month IGV software ETF versus the SMH chip ETF. Today, nearly 90% of software names are in the red with security, of course, a bright spot, but you're really seeing that divergence there. And speaking of chips, Intel shares closing higher as well. Intel up 7% today, AMD up 6% on a CPU shortage concern.

KeyBag says both are sold, almost sold, out of server CPUs for 2026, opening the door for price hikes. And so that essentially means the AI infrastructure buildup continues, but attention maybe right now is shifting from GPUs in memory to CPUs. Yeah, always got to chase the next move in the food chain there, Christina. Thank you very much. Now let's dig deeper into another group weighing on the market today. As Christina was just talking about, Sima Modi, joining us with more on the software sell-off.

Sima. Yeah, Mike, the market seems to becoming hypersensitive to any AI offerings that could challenge the incumbents in software. The latest Anthropics Clod launching co-work and AI agent that sounds and looks a lot like what Salesforce is trying to do with Agent Force. That sends shares of CRM down by 7% on the day. This is the worst day in seven months for Salesforce. And earlier today, Apple out with a suite of design tools that takes aim at Adobe's offerings.

It comes as Adobe has struggled to convince investors its newest products are resonating with enterprise customers. Oppenheimer analysts calling Adobe's top line growth uninspiring, downgrading the stock today, and it lost about 22% in 2025 down another 5% today. Other laggards in software, UiPath, Asana, Atlassian, as the street debates, which other names could be vulnerable to this threat. And as Christina mentioned, this bifurcation is playing out real time with software. It's underperforming the NASDAQ and underperforming the semiconductor stocks in the first few weeks of the year.

A couple of standouts so far in software in 2026 names like Oracle, Synopsis, and Palantir, all of these names set to report earnings in the coming weeks, Mike. Seema, it's remarkable because this has been one of the things that people were immediately concerned about when it came to AI tools impacting software. I do wonder, though, what Claude has been rolling out, what other AI platforms have been offering in the way of these coding tools, eventually they're going to charge for them, right? So it's not as if it's forever going to be just like either you pay for Salesforce or one of these other companies or you can do it more or less free on Anthropic.

And that's why I think pricing will become a big part of the story here. Yes, some of these other companies are going to be offering a similar. model, a similar suite of products that these software incumbents offer. But at this point, the expectation is that it will be much more cost effective than an Adobe than what Salesforce is offering at this point. And I think that will be a big topic of debate when these companies are set to report, margins, and again, what pricing will look like, not just now, but going into the rest of this year. Absolutely. Seema, thank you very much. While stocks taking a breather today amid a flurry of political headlines, earnings, and a cooler than expected inflation report,

financials, as we've been saying, under a lot of pressure. including Visa and MasterCard down more than 4% with the president's proposed credit card cap and other suggestions about getting around some of those networks weighing on that trade. Joining us now to share her thoughts on all of this. This is Barbara Duran, BD8 Capital Partners, CEO. Barb, it's great to see you.

Talk about your game plan heading into the year and what we've seen so far that's either confirmed it or caused you to rethink it. Well, it's interesting. I think that consensus is pretty bullish right now, and also about the trade that's broadening out. And certainly we saw that in the last quarter with small caps, you know, outperforming value, you know, financials, some health care. And I think that's for the game plan coming in. For me, it's keeping the core mag seven, although there's very individual stock stories at this moment because the earnings growth is real and sustainable, you know, but whether they'll have the outsized returns, you know, in the past, but I think they're still going to have good returns. But at the same time, you are looking for a lot of individual stock picking within, sectors. I think, for instance, Staples, you stay away from. I'm not a believer in the small cap trade, even though the Russell 2000 has been a big performer. Because I just think there's

too many companies there that aren't profitable. They don't have the resources for AI. They don't have the flexibility in terms of avoiding tariffs and changing supply chains. So it's really trying to look at those different sectors. And within that, you know, picking the best ones. And right now, for instance, you are getting opportunities like J.P. Morgan today. Why is J.P. Morgan down so much. I think it's because there was incorporating best case investment banking fees were down a bit. They had this reserve. But I think you're going to have these opportunities within sectors that should continue to perform well, given the economic outlook for GDP growth of anywhere from 2% to 2 and 3 quarters this year. When you talk about J.P. Morgan being an opportunity down 4%.

I wonder also, though, if you have to read through to say, what does it tell us that a pretty good quarter gets a sell response from the street? you know, are people too crowded into the big banks? Is J.P. Morgan too expensive relative to the other ones? And how are you going to read through to the rest of the group as it reports? Well, Mike, I think there is a bigger story here in that regard. And that's because the valuations in general. You look at the S&P 500. We're coming in this year at high valuation 22 times. To me, that means volatility. Fundamentals, I'm a believer in the strong earnings growth story that we could see 14, 15 percent this year. Fourth quarter should be good. We've had four quarters in a

of double-digit earnings growth, 10 quarters in a row of increasing year over year. But what it means, well, the valuations are this high. And certainly, J.P. Morgan was way above its historic value mean. And so it's just waiting for some excuse to take profit. So I think, you know, you could see a little bit more sell through tomorrow in a name like this. And you'll see this, you know, throughout the year. And certainly, I think the mag seven are a perfect example of the last few years. You know, they run up.

They more than discount what's going to happen. They sell off, but yet the story is still good, so you get back in at some point. You mentioned, you know, within the Mag 7, obviously, maybe you have to be discerning to some degree. It seems as if, you know, the stampede has been into Alphabet as a way to kind of hide from some of the open AI risks and then just play this incumbent play on consumer AI. At the same time, the AI trade is going to Asia. I mean, those stocks are amazingly excitable, whether it's the chips or, some of the Chinese internet companies. So is that informing how you would proceed from here?

You're going to look for the laggards or the stuff that's working right now? Well, I think you're to see, you are seeing that a lot of people looking for laggards in any industry, and particularly abroad, as we know last year, merging markets, developed markets abroad, outperform the U.S. market. And I think that is likely to continue this year. And certainly people are looking at China, which, as we know, has been a very volatile situation in terms of being an investable, now being investable because that is where a lot of the action is. So I think people, you know, will invest there and looking for cheaper companies with the same growth profiles, you know. But for me, I will stick with the U.S. companies because I still see a lot of political risk

dealing with, you know, any company in China. Yeah, I guess the basic premise that we're getting this double-digit earnings growth most likely this year, the economy looks like it could pick up from here. Maybe the Fed is able to have room to cut a couple more times. People are pretty comfortable with that idea. And then it's been kind of, you know, defending against the headline risk, right? This week with the whole potential investigation into Jerome Powell, getting a lot of attention. We did see the market come back late in the day today on this report that we talked about, you know, where it seems like he already informed Congress about some of the Fed building renovations. I only bring that up to say, to what degree do you have to be aware of the next shoe to drop along these lines

as you're figuring out what to do with your money this year? Well, Mike, I think we're just going to continue to have many shoes dropped, you know, that we just can't even anticipate. I mean, if you look at the series of announcements that you just mentioned, you know, the Pau investigation out of the blue, this proposed 10% cap, which has sent Visa, MasterCard, which, by the way, I think there's interesting buying opportunities in Visa and MasterCard. You know, right here, they're off 8% in a week, and they don't get, none of their revenues come from interest rate charges. that's the banks that use them. So I think that what it means, you know, I don't think it changes the overall picture in terms of aggregate earnings, but you are going to continue to have buying opportunities. Like you had mentioned alphabet. Last year, that was a big laggard. And then people, because they said, oh, they're behind an AI, et cetera, but then they got people now understand

what's going on and the stock caught up. You look at Meta right now. Metas is a 21 and a half times. And yet their revenue growth, you know, is the high teens to low 20s, EPS over the next three to five years is probably mid-teens. And it's this concern over cap-X, which historically they have shown they are really able to use that research in those dollars to monetize, increase their engagement, increase their users. And, of course, ad spending is a big part of their story. Yeah, at some point, they could also just decide to start, you know, harvesting free cash flow again and investing less.

They've done that before as well. We'll see. Barb, great to coach up with you. Thank you. Nice to see you. Thank you. All right. President Trump speaking in Detroit this afternoon.

This comes after he took another shot at Fed Chair. Jay Powell, saying that he is either incompetent or crooked. Amon Javers here now with more on the president's remarks. Hi, Amin. Hey, there, Mike. The president really used these remarks in Michigan today to kind of tease ahead to a couple of economic announcements that are upcoming. He said he's going to have more on the housing market in his speech in Davos next week.

You know, we talked about that massive bond buying program that he announced last week and the effort to get big institutional investors out of the housing market. He said he'll have more to say on all that next week. He also talked about what they're calling the health care affordability framework, which he says he's going to announce later this week on health care. He says it's going to reduce premiums for millions on lower drug prices, delivering price transparency and demand, honesty and accountability. So we'll watch for that news, which he says is coming later on this week. And then Mike, I also wanted to flag for you this comment. Kind of an interesting one.

You talked about his insults of the Federal Reserve Chairman, which he has been making sort of very regularly. He also had this comment about the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson today. Struck me as a little bit passive-aggressive. Take a listen and see what you think about it. We have a man who's doing a fantastic job. I get angry at him every once in a while, but very, very seldom because he's got what it takes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

So either joking or sort of a shot across the ballot from the President to the Treasury Secretary saying I get angry at him from time to time, but very seldom. Look, watchers of that relationship will kind of have their eyebrows go up here to try to figure out, you know, what's going on behind the scenes. The subtext is, of course, there are these reports that the Treasury Secretary was out of step with the president in terms of the Powell investigation and felt that it would be a problem for the administration in terms of getting their own Fed share confirmed up on Capitol Hill if this investigation went forward. So we're watching all that. what we've seen from the official spokespeople on both sides is, you know, there's nothing wrong with this relationship, but just put a pin in that one for your point. Well, and I guess, David, we'd have to look at that through the window of understanding that

in the past the president has sort of blamed his former Treasury Secretary, Stephen Mnuchin, but recommending Jay Powell be his nominee, you know, back in his first turn. Yeah, so if you're Scott Besson, how do you feel about recommending a Fed Chair pick this time around, right? I mean, you might want to just sort of put the menu of options in front of the president didn't let him do it. Yeah, exactly. He might like that too. We'll see. All right, Amen, thank you very much. You're back. Stocks falling today, but all the major averages are still right near all-time highs. So today's tame inflation data mean the economy is in a good place to allow markets to go even higher. We're breaking down the data. Overtime is back in two minutes.

Welcome back to overtime. Bond yield slightly lower today after this morning's CPI data came in below expectations on the core rate for the monthly and the yearly numbers. Rick Santell, is in Chicago with more on the Treasury Market. Also, of course, had some supply. New auctions today, Rick. Yes, exactly, Mike. We had a 30-year bond auction capping the trifect of supply from 3s, and today 30s.

Those $22 billion found homes very aggressively, a very solid auction. And yes, the data was better than expectations. But for the most part, the year-over-year, especially sticky, even though that year-over-year-over-year, even though that year-over-over-year, year core coming down is the lowest level since it peaked. Now if you look at a two-year, which is the most sensitive to anything that has to do with the Fed, so that really makes CPI epicenter. You can see all the volatility right there at 830 Eastern. It really did establish the low yield across the curve and all the yields moved a little bit higher after that. And when you consider that a two-year

note yesterday closed it the highest yield going back a little over a month, December 9th. So we are reversing that ever so slightly. So short maturities today have slightly lower yields. Mid to long maturities are virtually unchanged, a very subtle steepening of the curve. There's a three day of tens. What should jump out at you is the fact that this 1920 area, 419, 420, we keep hitting it and coming back down. And as you look at the dollar index, the same day actually is the two year. It is on pace for the highest close since the 9th of December, a little over a month. And I find that very, very important because there's a lot of cross talk about how the Powell headlines would affect the dollar. It doesn't seem to be affected.

Markets in general really don't seem to be affected much. And to dig deeper on foreign exchange, that yen just keeps going down, down, down, even with the potential threat of FX intervention by the Bank of Japan. There's a dollar index chart from July of 24. a one and a half year high in favor of the dollar, you think that's strong against the euro currency. The euro currency is at a 35-year high against the Japanese yen. Mike, back to you. Remarkable, yes.

Rick, thank you very much. For more on the latest inflation data, let's bring in Robert Socken, Citi's global economist. Rob, it's good to have you on. So the inflation numbers we got today, obviously slight downside to the core rate, but really on, trend and that trend is above target, but still kind of feeding into this general disinflationary mood. How do you read it? Yeah, I think that's a perfect description of what we've been seeing where inflation has continually run above the central bank's target, but we are seeing this gradual downward trajectory, which leads us to believe that maybe by the end of this year,

you might not be exactly at 2%, but you're going to be somewhere in the facility. of that by the end of 2026. Now, I should note, you know, the data that we've been getting over the last few months are difficult to interpret because of distortions due to collection during the government shutdown, which was impaired or limited. But I think if you smooth through the last few months, even given those factors, it's pretty clear to us that inflation, while still high, is coming in better than we would have expected a few months ago and reinforces that view that we're going to be on a downward trajectory in 2026. And the market, of course, has not been registering a lot of alarm about the inflation picture. On the growth side, obviously,

the consensus is for a bit of a reacceleration in US GDP after maybe a late 2025 soft patch. Are you in line with that thought? And what are we looking for to actually have that bear out in terms of the data? Yeah, absolutely. And I think, you know, we had probably a bit of a modest slow down in the economy in the fourth quarter of last year. We'll see when the full set of data comes through. But when you smooth through that and you look at 2025 as a whole, the U.S. economy probably grew somewhere around 2%. And we're looking for something very similar in 2026 of growth around 2%. Probably a bit of a strength in the middle of the year as you get some of that fiscal support coming through through the tax relief that we saw from the big beautiful bill that's going to come through

in tax returns this year. So we're watching those closely, how are refunds coming in? And most importantly, we're watching, you know, how well does the consumer continue to hold up in this environment? The consumer has really been the backbone of the U.S. economy, particularly upper income consumers have weathered this environment well. And we're watching to see how well do those monthly figures of spending hold up as we move into 2026. Are we going to remain in this world where, you know, relatively strong GDP growth coexists with relatively soft labor market performance? I think this is really the key question for the U.S. economy because what we saw last year was a significant or meaningful softening in the labor market amidst still fairly solid economic growth. And there's a bit of attention there and a bit of a

decoupling. And I think that is probably going to continue to be the story in 2026. I mentioned that we're looking for 2% GDP growth. But we also think there's enough underlying softness in the labor market that you're going to see a bit more of a rise in the unemployment rate as we go throughout this year. It's not going to be to recessionary levels. It's not going to rise particularly sharply. But I do think there's a bit more softness still to come as labor demand continues to moderate, amiss also moderating labor supply.

So it's a challenging backdrop, but I think it's the environment we're going to be living in for at least this year, particularly when you look at the dynamics in the labor market. It's very much a low churn environment. We're not seeing those layoffs yet. That gives me confidence that we're probably not going to see a big rise in the unemployment rate. We're also seeing a very low hiring environment, given all the uncertainties and prevailing challenges. So I think that's still going to be the story in 2026, just as we saw in 2025. Yeah.

And I guess I suppose if the Fed is tuned in mostly to the unemployment rate, then there's the opportunity for it to ease a little more into that if, in fact, we get those numbers migrating higher. Rob, we'll have to leave it there. I really appreciate the time. Thank you so much. Rob Sockin. President Trump's market moving comments not limited to the Fed and Jay Powell. Up next, what his tough talk about Iran means for oil prices. Plus, the awesome thoughts about Berkshire Hathaway ahead of tonight's CNBC special.

Warren Buffett, a life and legacy. We'll be right back. Welcome back tonight on CNBC. Warren Buffett, a life and legacy. Becky Quick spoke to Buffett about his business, philosophies, philanthropy, and how his perspectives have changed over the decades. Take a look now at how Buffett's Berkshire has performed compared to what I would consider its subcomponents or its peer group. This is a five-year chart. A lot of commentary about how Berkshire has underperformed the S&P in the final year or two of Buffett's stint as CEO. But you see here it's actually done perfectly well relative to some of its major components.

That's the insurance sector, the industrial sector, and of course Apple shares, which Berkshire continues to own a lot of, but sold very, very well, not far from the high. So certainly nothing to be ashamed of even in the final stretch of his tenure. Warren Buffett, a life and legacy tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern. Well, energy, the best performing sector on the S&P 500, thanks to a 2% gain in the price of oil. Pippa Stevens is here with more on the moves in that and other commodities. Two-month-high here for oil, Mike, with oil jumping. As traders really grow increasingly concerned about disruptions out of Iran, although for the time being, supplies do remain steady and the market is well supplied.

Matt Smith from Kepler noting that Iranian oil on the water has now reached a record. Could be China worried about sanctions or China putting the squeeze on those barrels looking for price drops. Tehran could also be moving barrels away from possible military targets. Now, moving over to the medals, another record high for gold and silver earlier in the session. As the latest CPI report fuels bets that rate cuts are coming. After huge moves in the last year, Bank of America saying its bubble risk indicator for gold and silver is now at extreme levels. Now, silver has been the biggest outperformer within the precious metals, with traders riving the wave. You can see this chart here, which shows the size of SLV's typical daily price moves measured over a rolling 60-day window, and you can see the spike in volatility.

Silver is the favorite with the gold to silver ratio, now trading below 60, Mike, for the first time since 2013. Yes, so more affordable, more excitable as way silver usually is relative to gold. And then when the oil move, which obviously has been a laggard in the whole commodity group, but really as an asset class, commodities have started getting gear move higher. You see the commodity index is threatening to make a new high. I wonder how much of it, you know, you can never separate out the geopolitical premium that's getting put back into crude versus just generally money flowing toward commodities. it seems like a tailwind.

Yeah, we've seen a lot of, you know, the CTA tracker has showed a lot of interest in the commodity complex generally, but we've also saw today a lot of the move in oil can also be attributed to short selling and to covering those shorts, I should say, because traders are now, they don't really want to be on the downside end of it, because that is already so well priced in. It is very telegraphed in the market that this year is going to be one of oversupply, and so now that is there, but what is the upside potential given that we could see disruptions? And then also now that there's growing geopolitical trade risk between the U.S. and China, if Iran, if those Iranian barrels that China has been buying at a discount are targeted, what does that mean in terms of this rising kind of resource nationalism that we're seeing?

Sure, a little bit less comfortable to be short in that environment. To Pippa, thank you very much. All right, time now for a CNBC News update with Steve Kovac. Hi, Steve. Hey there, Mike. Yeah, President Trump told CBS News today the U.S. will take, quote, very strong action if Iran hangs protesters. It comes after Trump said earlier in the day he canceled news. meetings with Iranian officials and that help is on the way. Human rights monitors say as many as 2,000 people have been killed in the anti-government demonstrations. Also, after

three hours of arguments today, the Supreme Court appears ready to uphold state laws in Idaho and West Virginia banning transgender athletes from participating in female sports. The states are appealing lower court rulings that block those bans. The high court's ruling could have implications for 25 other states with similar laws in place. Decisions are expected by early summer. And comedian Trevor Noah is going to host the Grammy Awards this year for the sixth and final time. The Recording Academy announced today the ceremony will be the Daily Show host Farewell Gig. The awards will air February 1st on CBS and Paramount Plus before moving over to ABC Hulu and Disney Plus next year. Mike, back over to you. All right, Steve, thank you. Financial stocks weighing on the markets for a second

straight day. Their credit card issuers such as MasterCard and Visa getting hit, so is JPMorgan following its earnings. But we've got another big day of bank reports tomorrow, so can that turn the tide? We'll discuss next on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Markets down across the board. The Dow losing just about 400 points, though it did recover about 150 points in the final minutes of trading. Smaller losses for the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000. Big moves in the software names today. Salesforce and Adobe leading the way lower. Some competition concerns from AI threatening Adobe as well as Apple. Money moving into semiconductors, though. Intel up 7% today. It has doubled in the last six months. AMD up 6% on the day. And check out shares of Nvidia after hours. The U.S. easing

regulations on sales of H200 chip exports to China. We did know this was coming. The president has talked about it, but has now officially been entered into the federal register. Well, Big Banker, turnings are coming in fast and furious with J.P. Morgan kicking things off this morning, beating on the top and bottom lines. Still, shares fell 4%. Tomorrow, we'll hear from Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup before the bell. Joining us now is Piper Sandler managing director Scott Seifers. Scott, good to have you. Is there anything that you could pick up that investors were particularly reacting to in J.P. Morgan's quarter or its outlook, or was this kind of standard sell-the-news response on a good number?

Good question, Mike, and thanks for having me. So I think for the most part, what we're looking at is sort of a sell-the-news. You know, if you look at the actual quarter, as you appropriately noted, it beat, the guidance was either the same, were actually a little better, depending on how you look at the NIA. So the quarter itself and the outlook both really good. Having said that, a couple of messages I'd leave you with first. You know, the group, including J.P. Morgan in particular, has already done quite well coming into earning season. So I think there's a sense of sell-on-the-news. But, you know, investors are also grappling with this new issue of, you know, President Trump's true social posts from Friday night proposing a cap on credit card fees. So I think there's some lingering sort of hangover from that as investors digest what that could mean should it come true fruition. Yeah, I mean, I guess what would you kind of come down on in terms of what any likely outcome would be? This could just be a job-boning campaign and he could chain banks into trying to lower rates or something like that.

Or maybe it just brings a renewed spotlight onto how high some credit card rates are. and even, I guess, the interchange fees charged by Visa and MasterCard, those stocks are weak. I know you don't cover those, but it's just interesting how you could actually see this non-specific threat start to get priced in somehow. For sure. And I think you actually framed both those issues quite well. You know, just as I look at things, there's been a theme to President Trump's communication over the past week or two. He's definitely targeting affordability. So when you think about things like credit card rates or even interchange, I can see why he would go after those things. But to answer your specific question about sort of likelihood of these things coming to fruition, at least on the credit card interest rate cap, I would say that feels like something that would be

very, very tough to put into practice. You know, credit cards are unsecured loans, and that's why rates are generally pretty high. So I think this would be one of those kind of horrific unintended consequences if something like this happened. What you would really do is just really severely limit availability of credit, particularly to people who need it most, presumably. You would probably also have to just shift fees elsewhere, you know, like, annual feeds would probably have to go up. And then all the rewards programs we've become accustomed

to over the last several years, those probably get ratcheted back. So I can't really see how something like this, despite perhaps a very nice intention, would be a good thing at all in practice. As we look ahead, what should we be keying off of when it comes to Bank of America, Wells Fargo, the other big diversified banks and city as well, whether it's on the trading side, the investment banking side, where's the bar? Good question. I'm glad you pivoted it back to earnings, because the earnings we expect to see are actually going to be quite good. As we look, you know, probably four or five things, you know, loan growth has sort of normalized, but I think you're going to see expectations that it will actually improve as the course of the year plays out,

in part because of, you know, the big, beautiful bill and the ramifications that are positive that should hit this year. The rate environment is very benign, so you should see net interest margins, which are a big component of bank revenues. Those are going to sort of grind higher over the course of the year. The fee outlook, which includes capital markets such as traditional investment banking and trading, that environment. is very, very good. They're just really good backlog. So there should be another good year there. Credit seems stable, and banks have a lot of excess capital to put to work. So that should be a good thing as well. And then finally, you know, the direction of travel, even if it's not every day,

the direction of travel in terms of the regulatory environment is very, very good. So the fundamentals themselves, I think this is shaping up to be a really positive setup, both in earnings and for the year beyond. Yeah. And I guess a pretty reassuring macro message so far in the numbers on the credit side, as you say. Scott, thanks very much. We'll come. Catch up with you again soon. All right. Thank you, Mike. All right. Well, Dexcom shares falling today, despite stronger than expected preliminary fourth quarter results, as investors remain worried about competition and the impact of weight loss drugs. Up next, Dexcom's new CEO gives us his turnaround strategy in his first interview since taking the job at the start of the year.

Welcome back to overtime. Moderna, by far the top of forming stock in the S&P 500 today, after the company's CEO said at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, he expects European approval of its flu. COVID-combo vaccine this year with a launch in 2027, adding the vaccine could launch in the U.S. in 2028. So 17% gain has become a pretty crowded, short about 19% of the share flow was short at last report. Well, sticking with health care, Dexcom shares pulling back a bit. That's after posting their best day in nearly two months yesterday on some better than expected pre-announced Q4 sales. But it's been a challenging few years for glucose monitoring company underperforming the health care equipment ETF XHE as it deals with investor skepticism,

partly from the rise of GLP1 drugs. Joining me now from the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco in an exclusive interview is new Dexcom CEO Jake Leach. Jake, great to have you. It's wonderful to be here, Mike. So talk a little bit about what went into the guidance that you offered recently. It was pretty reassuring, I think, when it first hit. In terms of how the market size is tracking, the uptake of the, of the

new products and all the rest. Yeah, so as we look to the future for Dexcom, we're guiding to significant growth. There's an amazing opportunity for Dexcom to have an impact on diabetes and metabolic health in general. Our glucose sensing solutions are already providing benefit for millions of people around the world, but there are so many more that can benefit from the technology. And it's really about providing new innovation that furthers the category.

and helps users really better manage their diseases. And the other part is continuing to work on generating all the clinical evidence we need to open up more and more access and coverage for this technology so people that can benefit from it can get access to it. As you try to estimate the pool of people who could benefit from these products, how has it been impacted, if at all, by the GLP1 revolution? I know that's kind of the standard idea that it's sort of, of an offset to some of the growth, but obviously there's many more people in the world

who might need their glucose monitor than are doing it. That's right. I mean, CGM has been one of the fastest growing categories in MedTech for the past decade, and with that, we're only 2% penetrated into the population of people that have diabetes. GLP-1s are a fantastic innovation on the pharmaceutical side, and what we see is a very complementary effort between CGM and GLP-1s. If you think of the way the CGM works is it's a device that provides users with immediate feedback and information about how their glucose is changing and how different things like food and activity levels, sleep, stress, how that impacts their

glucose. And on the other side, the GLP1 helps provide basically digestive control as well as makes the body more sensitive to insulin. When you combine those two, a user has all all the information they need to be able to tailor their behavior and lifestyle choices around food and exercise to really help optimize their glucose in combination with the GLP1. The other thing we see is that when someone's using a continuous glucose monitor, they see the benefits that those GLP1s are providing them in terms of glucose control, and it really helps further the adherence to the therapy. You mentioned efforts to make sure that these products are covered under insurance plans and things like that.

Where does that stand in terms of, you know, is it changing, I guess, in real time here? And do you have to do that with each iteration of your products? It's been a focus of ours since the beginning to drive coverage and reimbursement for this technology because of the benefits it provides. And so we've done over time, starting 10 years ago, we started running randomized control trials in different populations of people with diabetes to prove just how impactful the CGM is. And just last year, we saw one of the largest category expansions in the history of Dexcom where many private insurance companies began covering CGM, not only for people with diabetes that use insulin, but now anybody that has diabetes. And we do anticipate that coverage to continue to grow.

There are currently 9 million people in the United States that have coverage for CGM and aren't using it yet. And that's really because a lot of this coverage is quite new. And so we do anticipate a good category growth across the U.S. and internationally as we also open up access throughout Western Europe and the Asia Pacific regions. And just for context, I guess active users currently are about 3 million globally for you? We actually exited 2025 with about 3.5 million users, which is growth of over 20 percent from where we exited 2024. So it was a record number of new patients for us in 2025. And we anticipate strong new patient growth in 2026.

Yeah, I was going to say still some untapped potential there. Jake, really appreciate it. Thank you very much for the time. Jake Leach, Dexcom CEO. Jim Kramer will have more from the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference tonight with the CEOs of Amgen, Regeneron Novartis, and Cardinal Health. Up next, we'll break down some of the unintended consequences that may be emerging from the broadening of the stock market.

Welcome back to overtime. investors have welcomed the broadening of the stock market, but might there be some unintended consequences? First, a little bit of the positives here. Obviously, money has floated away from the biggest index names toward the rank and file. The QQQJ is kind of the junior varsity of the NASDAQ. It's the NASDAQ 1001 largest stock along to the 200th. So it's the next 200 after the QQ. You see it's now outperforming even on a one-year basis. So that's probably good for those who want to be active stock pickers and not just go with the headline indexes. Take a look, though, at one of the statistical results of this supposed broadening and the low correlation. This shows you the implied correlation

over one month anticipated for the 50 largest stocks in the stock market. What it basically means is companies are going their own way. There's not a lot of unified movement. A lot of times it suppresses volatility. That's good news, again, if you're an active stock picture. However, it doesn't stay down here for long, typically, so you have these little eruptions of volatility when stock start to move together. Folks on Wall Street will tell you that means it's probably a good time to hedge against future volatility once Vol is cheap and you can buy the hedges not too expensively. All right, buying sports franchises is something only the ultra wealthy can do, but now anybody can invest in those teams and in other areas of sport of the sports industry with a new

ETF. We'll hear from the portfolio manager of the Gabelli Opportunities in Live Sports ETF when overtime returns. Some strong recent data points for pro sports, good ratings for the NBA to start its new media rights deal, and the NFL with its best regular season viewership since 1989. That's why streaming services and TV networks continue to bid up rights fees and franchise valuations keep skyrocketing. Our next guest hopes to capitalize on that interest and momentum. Joining me now is Chris Moranji. He is co-CIO of value at Gabeli Funds, one of the portfolio managers of the newly launched sports-focused ETF, Chris, good to see you.

Glad to be here. It's been obviously a constant theme. It's where the eyeballs are. How does this ETF try to capitalize on that? Well, it's about live entertainment in sports. It's been a theme we've been playing for a long time. Why do the ultra-wealthy buy sports teams? It turns out that they are excellent stores of value.

If you look over the last dozen or so years, aggregate the value of all the teams in the U.S., the big four leagues, actually compounded about 15% a year, which is better than the S&P. And it turns out that a lot of these teams share, the characteristics of good businesses that we look for. Customers are literally fans, so they've got pricing power, a lot of recurring revenue, low capital intensity.

Now, only, I guess, a relative handful of franchises, individual franchises, are tradable, right? So you own the Atlanta Braves, Manchester United, some other soccer clubs, correct? Well, you've got, of course, the Knicks and the Rangers. We'll forget about the Rangers for now. MSG and Formula One. And Formula One, right?

We're actually about 30 or so teams, leagues, and promotions that are publicly traded around the world. Now, the standard understanding of those things is that the asset values tend to always go up and buy a lot. But as an operating entity, maybe they're not throwing off a lot of profitability. Does that matter? Well, actually, the Braves, MSG, Formula One, others are actually cash flow positive. Obviously, they're running those teams to grow asset value over time.

And they are, again, stores of value for that reason. So, you know, it depends on the particular club. You also own some of the media companies that do, you know, kind of broadcasts. Sure. There are the broader sports ecosystem includes venue owners. It includes some of the sports data companies. And of course, some of the media companies like your parent. Yes. So, Versant as well. Now, I guess that would suggest that you don't think that the sports rights are always, you know, overvalued or something like that.

In other words, not one side of the equation is getting the better part of the deal. Seven of the last, seven of the top ten programs last year were sporting events. So that's only because there was an election last year. It would be 10 out of 10 in a nine election year. Right. sports drives viewership around the world. Now, you don't have explicit plays on sports gambling in here. Is that correct?

Right. I mean, just a reminder, this is an actively managed GTS. We're not just blindly buying a basket. We're still actively shaping it. But, you know, sports gambling has, I think, on net, been a positive for the sports ecosystem. It's driven viewership. You tune into a blowout just to see if your prop bet pays off. For sure.

You also make the case that this entire realm, this live entertainment world, is somewhat AI insulated. Is that going to remain the case, do you think? I don't know. How do you replace the players on the field? It's certainly a good compliment, I think, certainly in the short to medium term for a portfolio that has been dominated by AI. A compliment in the sense that, you know, you don't have to worry about it being disrupted. I was pretty happy owning a lot of the Atlanta Braves Baseball Club in April of 2025. Yeah, for sure. Now, is there any way in which somehow AI becomes an enhancement to any of this,

so we can just sort of not pay attention to it. Well, yeah. I mean, listen, AI is the mega theme of the next decade. It's going to impact us in ways that we can't think of for both better and worse. Yeah, and Formula One, I know, not really AI, but everyone talks about how it's basically a technology business. For sure. I mean, it's very high technology, both there and in their motorcycle promotion, which thing was bought last year. Oh, interesting. And as well, you have TKO in there?

TKO is in there? I'm trying to go down the list. Yeah, that's right. That's our core five. Okay. You named them. Excellent. Chris really appreciate it. Thanks very much. Thank you. All right. Coming off a modestly down day for the overall indexes, the Dow was the big underperformer, J.P. Morgan, dragging that down, along with Visa shares. That is going to do it for overtime today. Thanks for watching. Fast money begins right now.