Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime 11/4/25

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

That bell marks the end of regulation. Capital Group bringing the closing bell up the New York Stock Exchange. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and the CEO of the San Francisco 49ers, Jay York, doing the honors at the NASDAQ, doing the honors at the NASDAQ. The Dow down about 250 points, a loss of more than 1% for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ taking the biggest hit down a little over 2%. Tech is the worst performing sector, accordingly, along with discretionary, financials and staples in the green. The big concern today, tech valuations, Palantir down 8.5% as investors sell the news of an earnings beat, and META hasn't recovered from its earnings drop. It's fourth straight down day, lower by about 16% over four days.

Now, while stocks drop, people are buying bonds, sending yields down, the 10-year down just a little today. And big moves in crypto, Bitcoin dipping below 100,000 today, though it's back above. Its first time it's dipped that low since June. Ethereum with another big drop as well, down 17% this week, and it's only Tuesday. That's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell overtime. I'm Morgan Brennan, along with John Fort. We have a big list of earnings reports coming out in the next few minutes. Dow component Amgen, AMD, also reporting, it's one of the hottest stocks in the market lately up more than 50% in the past month. We will also hear from Kava and Pinterest.

Rivian also reporting results. Stocks lowered this year on concerns about EV, sales, CEO R. J. Skarin, is going to join us once those numbers cross. And we will also talk to Andrew Founder Palmer Lucky, the company flying a jet-powered drone for the first time. He's also launching a crypto bank. We've got a lot to talk to him about. First, let's start with the markets. The NASDAQ has its worst day and nearly a month. Sima Modi is there with more, Sima. Well, John, key question investors are trying to answer today is whether AI-related stocks have moved up too far, too fast. Palantir front and center today with strong earnings as more commercial clients use the company's technology to analyze

large swats of data. Impressive results yet Jeffries analyst there calling its valuation extreme famed investor Michael Burry, who is best known for calling the collapse of the subprime mortgage market revealed bearish bets against Palantir and Nvidia in a 13F filing. Companies that have been powering the AI trade like Oracle, which delivered ambitious final financial targets at its investor day, selling off in recent weeks on concerns they will have to take out additional debt to buy AI chips. Meta now down about 16% over the past week on roughly similar concerns. And take a look at some of the names in the broader semiconductor sector like Micron,

which designs memory, synopsis, super micro that builds those servers used inside data centers, all those names in the red today. Earnings from likes of AMD, yes, but Qualcomm, Armholdings tomorrow, and an AI industrial name Johnson Controls will provide another gut check for the tech market, Morgan. It's Sima Modi. Thank you. Well, the major averages under pressure today with the NASAC down 2% on rising fears about AI stock valuations combined with a recent lack of breath in the market. How concerned should investors really be? Joining us now is Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey and CNBC Senior Markets commentator Mike Santoli. It's great to be both here. Paul, I'm going to kick this one off with you because we have been beating the drama on the poor breath in the market here. We've also been beating the drama on how expensive stocks look, particularly tech stocks.

and stocks tied to AI. The other thing we perhaps haven't been talking about as much is the fact that liquidity seems to be coming out of this market, too, look no further than the downdraft and cryptocurrencies. Yeah, I mean, I think you're seeing profit taking in all areas of the market right now. Tech is getting the biggest most attention because it was up the most over the last few weeks. Palantir, obviously, the earnings last night causing the biggest headlines. But just let's put some perspective on this. This was the 12th time this year the Palantir has been dead.

down 7% or more. And you know what happened after the prior 11 times. So people have been worried about valuations for some time and it hasn't mattered. This could be the time that it does matter. But I think in the broader scheme of things, you're starting to see signs that the government is going to reopen and all the rotation into the safe areas of the market like tech over the last six weeks are going to start reversing. You're going to see some reversing of that trend as it becomes more apparent that the government is going to reopen. And areas that have lagged tied to the consumer should start to see some outperformance. Interesting. Mike, want to get your thoughts on this market, especially since you have an S&P 500 that at least before today was trading

a 23 times forward earnings estimates. That's above the five-year average of 20 times. And now ZEC 100 fetching a multiple of 28 times compared to 19 times in 2022. And yet, and I know you've been focusing on this, too, an S&P 500 equal-weighted index that is trading at a more than 25% discount to the S&P 500. Do you think we are going to see this rotation if the government reopens? I don't know that it would be necessarily a kind of linear move from one bet, like the concentrated heavy index weights in tech into everything else. But I think that there's, by one way or another, probably get a little bit of convergence there. I think the thing that I, that I I'm watching is not so much, you know, just a kind of relatively routine profit taking in

elevated tech, you know, overbought across the board, NASDAQ 100, everything else, not just valuations, but just on a price basis. But I think the consumer cyclicals have a lot to prove here. Not to say they can't kind of be a beneficiary of some rotation, but what I've been focusing on is the degree to which there's been this kind of stealth growth scare working through parts of the market. I mean, industrials even are kind of equal weighted or kind of flat on a 10 or 11 month basis. So you had these parts of the market that were geared to the cycle that were really clear leadership. And now it's kind of a little more ambiguous. So, you know, with the Fed kind of pulling back on its promise of a December cut, maybe that was a catalyst for

a little more pressure there. But it doesn't mean it's over. Obviously, it could just be a stutter step in that area. I just find it interesting that, you know, breath does doesn't really matter in terms of style points. It only matters if it creates fragility if those leaders start to back off and nothing else takes up the slack. Well, we got earnings coming out. Amgen is out. The stock is up about two and a half, three percent. The company beating on EPS and revenue products sales grew 12 percent, driven by 14 percent volume growth, partially offset by four percent lower net selling price. Sixteen of Amgen's drugs delivered at least double-digit sales growth in the third quarter. The company raising it,

It's full year revenue and EPS guidance. And you see the stock off the initial pop, but still holding in higher. Paul, what about the small caps then in this market? Because largely they have not been a part of that big tech, of course, bid that the market has gotten upward. How should we expect them to perform, especially as interest rates have come down a bit, not as much as some want, but a bit? Well, so think about it, John, in terms of smaller cap stocks versus the not just the mega-cap tech, but mega-cap across the spectrum. Since the start of October, in just about every sector, I think, except materials, the market-cap-weighted version of the sector outperformed the equal-weighted versions. So what that's telling you is that there's a lot of, you know, the bigger market-cap stocks, which are less exposed to maybe a temporary hiccup from,

business disruptions during a shutdown are going to be less exposed, whereas these smaller cap companies are going to be more exposed to temporary disruptions. And so right when the shutdown started, you started to, when it became apparent in mid-September that the shutdown was going to occur in October, that's where you really started to see the divergence between the equal weight and the cap-weight indices start to, you know, widen. And then, you know, today, I think it's no surprise that you saw the equal-weight. weighted index do better. You saw retail stocks actually finished a day higher. Mike, what do you make of Bitcoin being down around 100,000 today? Wow. I mean, yeah, the NASDAQ and S&P aren't having a

great day, but they're still near all-time highs. Yeah, I mean, the ridiculous part of the Bitcoin move is not what's really gone on today, but the fact that Bitcoin never really confirmed the new highs in the NASDAQ for weeks. It's really been pretty stagnant. So I don't know of any other way to read it aside from a kind of a broad gauge liquidity tell, a risk appetite indicator. And so, you know, it seems as if there is some concern in that area, even if it's not necessarily, you know, literal withdrawal of liquidity out there. You're getting some focus on parts of the market that, you know, whether it is because

your government shutdown is just slowing fiscal the fiscal side a bit, you're obviously having a little bit of tightness in the overnight bank lending market. markets, nothing alarming, but it's there. And so it might just be a reminder. I also see some Bitcoin bowls like Fundstratt saying, oh, there was some whales who, you know, early adopters of Bitcoin and put their coin on exchanges, and maybe they're, you know, kind of taking some off. And, you know, if they're out, then what are we in for? Paul, I want to get your thoughts what we're seeing in the restaurant space, because we're expecting results here from Kava as well as toast any minute. We get McDonald's tomorrow morning.

and it's continued to be a noisy set of earnings reports with what we've gotten so far. How much read-through is there to the consumer? Yes, I mean, I think you've seen commentary that business has slowed for the sector in some of these companies reporting. I think you saw that with Chipotle last week. So it's a tougher environment. Kava's, you know, came out after its IPO really strong. It's hit the skids recently. After last quarter, you saw a real sharp slowdown in same store sales.

from 15, almost 15% a year ago to just over 2%, which is slower than McDonald's now. So when you have that type of valuation, I think it was trading in about 90 times earnings, it's going to cause a big pullback in the stock when it's not, when the growth slows down. And I think that's going to be a headwind for the group. The consumer is under pressure. It's become under increasing pressure in the last several weeks here overall. So I think that's going to be a negative. But then going forward, you start to see the bounce back effect when things start to reopen as far as the government is concerned.

And you see these government workers start to get paid finally. That could provide a nice boomerang effect going into the holidays. Okay. Paul Hickey, Mike Santoli. Thank you. Thanks. With all the major averages finishing the day lower, we've got Pinterest earnings out as well. That's stock falling big here and after hours.

The company missing on EPS coming in at 36 cents a share that's versus estimates of 42 cents per share. The company matching on revenue, Pinterest reporting an all-time high of 600 million global, monthly active users. That's an increase of 12% year over year. The 600 million was above estimates. Nonetheless, though, those shares are falling 14% right now. All right. And CAVA earnings also out. That stock's been bouncing around quite a bit about the flat line.

Kate Rogers has the numbers. Kate. Yeah, just fractionally lower now, John. So Kava reporting EPS of 12 cents on revenues of $292 million, essentially right in line. But it's same store sales falling short of analysts' estimates they were up 1.9% versus estimates of up 2.8%. Remember, though, comping against a very strong quarter this time last year, the company also cutting its guidance for full year same store sales growth. Now forecasting it to be up between 3 and 4% from a prior range of up 4 to 6%. This is the second guidance cut we've gotten in a row.

It's also cutting its restaurant margin forecast and adjusted ebina forecast. I did speak with CFO, Tricia Tollivar, who said regarding the forecast, quote, we were certainly taking into account the consumer pressures that many are seeing in the industry today. And as we moved into the fourth quarter, we saw a bit of a decline in overall demand and wanted to be sure that the forecast reflected that, as well as the investments we believe, are necessary to run the business and the trends we saw in the third quarter, particularly around restaurant level margins. To Lover, also adding there are pressures, rather, around the younger consumer, which we also saw a member in Chipotle. It's less exposed, though, to the low-income consumer, but she said they are seeing same-store sales strength from that group. Guys, back over to you.

All right, that's stock now down just about a percent, bouncing between red and green. Kate, thanks. Coming up, our lineup of earnings and CEOs continues. Hinge Health CEO, Daniel Perez, will be here. The stock is down, let's see, is it 5.5 percent? after results, after it was up a little more than that during the day's trade. We'll get into those. But first, we'll talk to the CEO, Rivian.

On the back of those results, concerns about EV sales plaguing the industry, what is he seeing? Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of Tesla are down 5% today, this ahead of Thursday shareholder meeting and the vote on Elon Musk's trillion-dollar pay package. Today, a major shareholder, Norway's sovereign wealth fund, said it was voting against the compensation. It owns more than a percent of Tesla, making it the sixth largest institutional investor. The full amount of Musk's pay package is only paid out if Tesla gets to an $8.5 trillion market value, that would take him to about 25 percent of the shares outstanding versus his $1,000.

current 12%. Well, Rivian results are out, and Phil Leboe has the numbers for us. Hi, Phil. Hi, Morgan. Take a look at shares of Rivian, up around 3%. Why? Well, the company reported better than expected results. A smaller than expected loss of 65 cents a share. The street was expecting a loss of 72 cents a share. Revenue coming in slightly better than expected at 1.56 billion. It reported a gross profit for the third quarter, not a big one, but a gross profit of $24 million. is three out of the last four quarters with a positive gross profit there, gross margin of 2% versus negative 45% in Q3 of last year, with software and services revenue of $154 million, compared that to negative or a loss of revenue of, what, 13 million in Q3 of 24.

Then there's the guidance. They are essentially reaffirming across the board. Deliveries between 415 and 435, EBITA guide, a loss of 2.25 to 2.5 billion. and they are on track for the R2 to begin production in the middle of next year. Let's bring in R.J. Skorinj, CEO, founder as well of Rivian. Let's start first off. Smaller than expected loss. How much of that is because deliveries were better than expected in pricing was strong? Well, deliveries were strong, but importantly, our cost of goods sold,

cost per unit produced is among the lowest we've ever seen. So we really did a great job of continuing to drive efficiency until we run the plant, to continue to drive efficiency into our bill of materials. And we see that with cogs of, you know, very low cogs this quarter. When you look at getting to R2 production and your liquidity level right now, are you confident you have the capital needed or is there a chance of a capital raise in the first half of next year? No, we're very, I mean, we're very focused on launching R2. As you see, we've got over $7 billion in cash or cash equivalents.

So we're really well positioned for the launch of R2. We just built over 2 million square feet of new infrastructure in our normal Illinois facility. Some of that's for a body shop and general assembly. We also have a supplier park and a logistics center that's supporting the ramp up of R2. Two things that worry people right now regarding you and all the automakers, rare earth materials and the discussions between President Trump and President Xi in China, as well as the next peria chip situation. Have you had to slow down production because of those?

You know, in the next period, this is a really complex issue. It affects every manufacturer, every automotive manufacturer in the world. This is something we're very focused on. We're very appreciative of the work that President Trump and the administration are doing to resolve this issue with China. This has not impacted us yet, but I do want to, you know, I do want to say this is a big issue. As it pertains to rare earth metals, this is a complex long-term issue. And for us, we're both focusing on finding other sources of rare earth metals. So this is primarily for magnets.

as well as developing solutions that require less rare earth metals. Is there any chance that either Nexperia or the rare earth issue delays the start of production for the R2 in the middle of next year? This isn't something we're seeing as a potential for delay in R2 just because of how we've built and designed the supply chain and the readiness that's gone into preparing for the launch. In the more immediate term, on Nexperia, it's just we do need to have this resolved. We are building lots of alternatives in addition to what comes through

Nick Spirio today, but it's, you know, it's very much top of mind. And real quick, strength of the EV market, is it drop off here in the fourth quarter? Well, you know, we saw a lot of pull forward in September with the end of IRA and we're seeing now, you know, the low, if you will, after that in October. But look, we think that long-term EVs continue to grow in terms of scale and market penetration. We hope R2 is a big part of it. All right. RJ Scorange, founder and CEO of Rivian, here at the Rivian headquarters and design studio in Irvine, California. Guys, we'll send it back to you.

All right. And thank you for bringing us that as well, Phil LeBow. More earnings, Super Micro is out. The stock is down about 6%. Earnings at 35 cents a share compared to an estimate of 40 cents. Also amiss on revenue, $5 billion versus the estimate of nearly $6 billion. Second quarter EPS Outlook also coming in below estimates, but the company says it has a rapidly expanding order book, including $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra.

orders. AMD earnings out as well, saying an AI infrastructure, earnings of $1.20 per share, slightly ahead of the estimate. You see it's up fractionally. Revenue of $9.25 billion, also topping the estimate. That's helped by better than expected data center revenue. Also seeing Q4 revenue above the consensus. CEO Lisa Sue crediting the rapidly growing data center business. Well, we still have more big interviews to come here on overtime. A whole parade of them, actually. Spencer Raskoff of Match Group is about to join us. That stock is falling.

No, it's not. It's up about 1.5% right now with earnings and revenue missing slightly, but users coming in above estimates. First, though, we're going to be joined by Daniel Perez of Hinge Health. That stock is down more than 5% giving up most of the day's gain after a revenue beat. We're going to dig into those results coming up. Welcome back to overtime. Beta technology is rising nearly 6% on its first day of trading after the electronic aircraft maker priced above the range in an upsized offering.

Amazon and GE Aerospace are both investors in this company. I spoke with founder and CEO Kyle Clark first on CNBC this morning after his team rang the opening bell about how quickly they can ramp production. We are delivering aircraft for now. We have operations down in New Zealand and up in Norway, and these are pilot programs with customers that have taken the aircraft for early delivery and trials, and they're doing real work with them. We will ramp that through this year with the executive order. It accelerates our path to market, and as soon as mid-year to the end of the year next

year, I think you'll see a bunch of them flying domestically for real customers. The aerospace company competes with publicly traded Jobi and Archer Aviation, both down sharply today, even as beta popped in its IPO. John? All right. Well, Hinge Health is falling after hours, despite beating street expectations for third quarter revenue and fourth quarter guidance, but just giving back just about all of today's gain. Join me now in a CNBC exclusive. Hinge Health CEO, Daniel, right before the call, too. So let's get to the meat of this. Strong growth here. And as you guys are looking at issues of back health. joint health, what is allowing you to move ahead of expectations?

Well, look, our strategy for automating care delivery is working. Clients are buying the product, people are using it, and the Q3 numbers back it up, despite what you might be thinking of the after hours. And we've also built a very incredibly efficient business. You can see that in our 53% free cash flow margin, and we're rapidly approaching gap profitability, and as a business, we are committed to growing both revenue and managing the business to gap profitability. So you just launched this movement analysis and hinge score that's going to give, I guess, more information about how patients are moving.

What's that going to do to drive demand? How is that going to impact your growth prospects going forward? Great question. So look, as a reminder, our flagship product offers people digital physical therapy right through their phone. So you speak to a physical therapist. They could do their exercises right from home. And we're essentially using technology to automate and scale what is our largest services industry in America health care. And so you're right, we launched two actually new AI initiatives this past quarter.

Robin is our always on AI care assistant. This helps members with immediate support, starting with pain flare-ups. And this makes our service a lot more convenient for people, allows them to engage more, more efficiently, as well as improves our cost profile. And our movement analysis is really interesting in that there's a lot of measurement tools to track clinical outcomes in orthopedic care. And while valuable, most rely on subjective questions, you know, how's your pain trending, how's your stiffness? and our movement analysis uses advanced computer vision, just using the front-facing camera on your phone to capture joint angles, symmetry, and endurance

across a short battery of movements to produce first-of-its-kind hinge score. And that allows us to combine objective outcomes as well as subjective outcomes that are comparable over time and gives people, as well as their care team, and more complete picture of their help. So, Daniel, your client base grew 25% year-over-year to 2,560,

but your revenue was up 53%. How should investors think about the degree to which client-based grows revenue and if you're growing, I guess, dollar share, share of wallet among those customers over time? Great question. So there's three key drivers to our revenue.

It is the number of people with access. And our clients have been roughly the same size this year as they were last year. So when we add new clients, more people gain access to Hinch Health. And secondly, is how many people are in large? in those clients and then the thirdly is our ASP and ASP's been roughly flat year over year.

And so as we add new clients, we're also improving our enrollment rate and we're engaging people for a longer period of time. Our enrollment per client is hitting all-time highs and our engagement per person who then enrolls in our program is up substantially this year and it was up again last year. And so we're making really good progress with our product. People are enrolling at record numbers and they're engaging in their record numbers as well. Finally, your revenue guide for Q4 is up year over year, 33% at the midpoint. Is there a slowing happening here or a careful guide? What's accounting for that particular percentage? You know, that's a great question.

Q4 typically for us, seasonally, is a little bit of a lighter quarter because of the holiday season. We don't enroll as many people in Q4. Now, what makes us a bit of a difficult compare relative to last year is that we had a really strong Q4 last year. which is unseasonable. And so it just makes it a little bit of a more difficult compare in this Q4 versus last Q4. But our aim is to continue to execute, so we continue to beat our numbers.

Daniel Perez, CEO of King Health, we'll let you get to that call, which starts literally in just a couple of minutes. Thank you. Thanks, John. Appreciate it. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with McKenzie Segalos.

Mack. Hey, Morgan. The White House said this afternoon that the Trump administration will fully comply with a court order to use emergency funds to pay out SNAP benefits. The statement came after the president wrote on true social earlier in the day that the benefits would only be given after the quote radical left Democrats open up the

government. The Trump administration said yesterday will make partial snap payments from contingency funds. Israel says it received the body of another hostage from Hamas today that will now be transported for identification. Hamas said the body was located in an area still occupied by Israeli forces after Israel granted access to the location. Now before today, Hamas had returned 20 of 28 bodies of deceased hostages. And Reuters reports, Saudi Arabia's request to buy as many as 48 F-35 fighter jets cleared a key hurdle at the Pentagon. Two sources tell Reuters it several more steps are needed before potential approval, including

a sign-off from President Trump and the notification of Congress. It comes ahead of a scheduled U.S. visit in two weeks by Saudi Arabia's crown prince. Back to you. All right. Mackenzie, thank you. Wow, that's a big reversal on policy potentially right there. Okay. Well, coming up, we're going to be joined by Match Group CEO, Spencer Raskcroft for more on the company's results, with that stock moving around quite a bit post-market. Plus, serial entrepreneur and tech billionaire Palmer Lucky joins us. The founder of Andrel gives us his take on the AI trade, Palantir's results.

The company's first uncrewed jet drone flight. We're going back after this. Welcome back to overtime, a sell-off for tech stocks. The NASDAQ down more than 2%. Smaller losses for the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials. A host of earnings out in overtime, though. AMD shares are lower by about 2% right now. It beat on earnings and revenue. CEO Lisa Sue, crediting the company's data center business,

which also topped forecasts. But we did see such a big run in that stock ahead of these results. Super Micro, also falling. Down 8% on top of a 6% drop in the regular session. It missed on earnings and revenue. Its earnings guidance for next quarter, also seen below the current estimate. And Pinterest falling as well. After missing on earnings, but revenue of slightly more than a billion dollars that matched the estimate,

but it says that it has 600 million monthly active users globally, nonetheless, shares down 15%. And Arista networks, also taking a hit. It beat on the top and bottom lines. guidance in line except for on gross margins that's seen slightly below the street's estimates those shares are down about nine and a half 10 percent a lot of big moves despite what an otherwise might be considered some solid results here yeah and speaking of the move that we got in pallioteer in today's trade was what the options market was looking for yesterday now that i think about it well shares of match group are off about a percent after reporting q3

earnings results moments ago revenue and ePS coming in slightly below estimates, EPS of 62 cents versus consensus of 63, the company did raise its fourth quarter revenue guidance, total payers for its services, coming in at $14.5 million that matches estimates. Joining us now exclusively is Match Group CEO and board member Spencer Raskoff. Spencer, welcome. I'm looking at this report, and I'm thinking AI is having an impact, both in how you're matching people and how you're having to protect people. So give us the Those of us who aren't in the pool anymore, give us a sense of how AI is affecting the effectiveness of match and how people are using it. It's a game changer, John.

We're using AI throughout our product. So at the top of the funnel, in terms of how users create profiles and present themselves to other users, at the middle of the funnel, in terms of how we're matching users with one another, and at the bottom of the funnel, in terms of how we're creating more liquidity with conversations and suggesting topics for people to talk about. stopping inappropriate content from going through. And then AI sort of sits across the whole ecosystem from a trust and safety standpoint,

where we're using AI and lots of other initiatives in order to improve the authenticity in the community. So it has a huge impact on our business. What are the types of services that your most dedicated customers now are willing to pay for to improve their experience? Well, our customers are able to have a great free experience. This is a really important philosophical approach

we have towards what should be paid and what should be free. We want Match Group to be the best way for people to spark meaningful connections with other new people, the best way to meet new people. And it's important to have a very good free product. What people tend to pay for is more efficiency. So, for example, within Tinder, you get to pay to see who likes you, wrapping and then finding people that like you. Within Hinge, you get other kind of superpowers that allow you to have better access to more informed features. So a solid free product, but than additional superpowers for the payers, which improve efficiency. Spencer, it's good to see you.

How do you continue to differentiate between the brands, and what does that mean in terms of who's going to each of these brands? Yeah, we've got over 20 brands across the portfolio. Our two biggest are Tinder and Hinge. Tinder is really focused on fun and possibilities, whereas Hinge is focused on the focus segment. Hinge is designed to be deleted. Hinge is supposed to be the last dating app that you ever use.

Tinder is supposed to be the first dating app that you ever use. we have a number of other brands that focus on different customer segments like Chispa for Hispanics, BLK for blacks, the league for highly ambitious people. So we've got a family of apps. On the back end, we share a lot of services across the different apps, which improve trust and safety, product efficacy, marketing efficiency. This is something that we did at Zillow Group, where we created a portfolio of apps in the real estate category through incubation and through MNA. Match Group, likewise, is the category leader in the dating category with a portfolio of apps. which are integrated in some ways and collaborate in others.

Very quickly, Spencer, just because I think about Open AI and some of the moves they've made recently and some of the conversations I've had with folks in the AI space, does AI pose a real threat to the business in the sense that it starts to replace that human interaction? I don't think so. You know, I think people want a future where there are real human connections, a dystopian future where people are just falling in love with their robots. I don't think that's a world that people really want. I think as we form more relationships with technology, that will help inspire people to get up off the couch and spark meaningful connections and match group is the best way to do that.

All right. Spencer Raskoff, great to have me on. Thank you. Thank you. Up next, an exclusive interview with Andrew Founder Palmer Lucky on his company expanding its drone ambitions overseas and the outlook for AI. Over time, we'll be right back. Welcome back. Pounce here posting its worst day since August. Investors worrying, despite a blowout quarter, valuations may be getting stretched. Now, in the private market, though, defense tech startup Andrel, marking two key milestones in recent days, flying semi-autonomously its drone fighter jet for the first time, also opening its overseas, I should say expanding its overseas push, opening its first factory in Australia to manufacture its ghost shark drones. Joining us now in an exclusive interview is Palmer Lucky, Anderl, founder. Palmer, it's great to have you back on. It's been glad to be back on.

So I want to start right there with these milestones, and specifically, we've got to work on this name, YFQ44A, which is your collaborative combat aircraft for the Air Force, just had a maiden flight on Halloween. How significant is this milestone? And perhaps even more importantly, what does this mean in terms of production now? Well, it's a huge milestone for us because this is, you know, an autonomous fighter.

You push a button to tell it to take off, and it goes off, and it performs the rest of the mission. And that's exactly what we just demonstrated at the first flight. You don't have someone who's flying this thing from a remote control. You don't have a person telling you what to do. It does what you told it to do ahead of time, and it just goes down and executes on that mission. In terms of the name, you know, so Y is a designation for a production representative prototype. F is for fighter, Q is for unmanned, 44 is a designation, and A is for Alpha.

So the actual name of the aircraft, when it's in full production, is going to just be the FQ44. But for this initial demonstrator, you're right. It's the YFQ44A. Yeah, and you're also expanding internationally. You just opened this factory in Australia. We're seeing defense spending grow, not just here stateside, but globally as well. How does this position you? Well, the thing that the YFQ44A and the Ghost Shark have in common is that we've built these factories

that are able to manufacture both of them at very large scale using largely autonomous manufacturing processes that are very simple to set up. We're designing products that can be made at scale. at a price that is much cheaper than a lot of these legacy programs. And in both cases, we've gone from initial concept to production in extremely very short period of time. Like the FQ44, we went from selection to first flight in 556 days. That's the fastest a fighter program has moved in decades.

With the Ghost Shark in Australia, we've in less than three years gone from the initial contract to real production robotic submarines coming off of our line in Sydney. That is extraordinarily fast, and I hope that the rest of the industry can kind of take notes from us and do things in a similar way. So along those lines, and I say this knowing there's an information article just a couple weeks ago about the cash burn at Androl, as you do stand up all these factories and you do scale all of this production,

can you build and deliver to the military what it needs when it needs it? Absolutely. And one of the reasons we want to spend our own money is because it allows us to move so much faster than relying on the government to pay for everything. I mean, one good example at is the government shutdown right now. I'm sure they're going to work it out in the long run, but right now, Anderl's still moving full throttle.

All our test sites are operational. All of our programs are running. All of our products are still moving forward. And it's the same thing with our factories. I mean, the FQ44 factory, which is going to start turning out furies. Next year, production furies. We started building that before we even won the contract

because we were so confident, that if we won the contract, we were desperately going to need it. And if we didn't win it, we'd be able to use it for making our other products. And so, look, we're burning a lot of money, but it is being put to very, very efficient use. We're not burning money on nap pods. We're not burning money on having parties. We're burning money, building factories that the United States desperately needs for its national security. All right.

So we're talking about spending, though. We had pounds here down today despite another really strong quarter. There's concerns, there's debate, at least among investors. that a bubble is potentially inflating across this AI ecosystem with all the money that is being spent. How do you see it? Well, Andrell's interesting because we're the AI company that kind of preempted a lot of this AI hype. The name Andrel Industries, the acronym is AI. And eight years ago, we couldn't even talk about that because AI was seen as this technology of the future, never something that was actually going to work. Now AI is the hottest thing ever. Look,

AI powers all of our systems. The FQ44 has a lattice brain. The Ghost Shark has a lattice brain. All of our systems are running on our lattice AI brains that powers all of our stuff. But I think that we're very different from a lot of these other AI companies in that AI is not the product.

It's just the thing that makes the product work. I'm not selling AI software. I'm not selling an AI brain. I'm selling fighter jets. I'm selling submarines. I'm selling missiles. I'm selling heads-up displays. I'm selling force fields.

that happen to be powered by AI. So I think it's a very, very different category than a lot of these other AI companies. And there's a world where this is a bubble. There's a world where it's not. I've got to admit, I'm not really a finance person. I'm a techno head. I type on the computer really, really well.

It's your job to tell us if it's a bubble or not. Okay. So let's shift gears here a little bit because just a couple weeks ago, conditional approval from the office of the comptroller of the currency for another startup. So media reports tell me, Erebor. Tell me about it.

I think it's a little too early to talk much about it. But as you know, I've been working on a side project to build a bank that is extremely reliable, not really to build a bank that startups like, to build a bank that is the type of bank that defense startups need, that technology startups need. A lot of the people, when Silicon Valley Bank collapse, it almost took a lot of companies with them. The existing market is not really doing what needs to be. be done. And it's a little too early for me to be out there, Schilling. We have a preliminary

conditional approval. So I think right now I'm funding all of the operations myself. I think at some point in the future, there will be more to say. But the bottom line is the U.S. used to have banks that were in the business of holding your money and helping companies succeed. And too many of them have forgotten that their job is not to be cute and financialize everything to the nth degree, even at the expense of their customers. Okay. Tom are lucky. Look forward to having more that conversation in the future. Thank you. I'll see you at the first weaponized mission of Fury next year, maybe. All right, up next, much more on today's wild hour of overtime earnings as we count down to AMD's analyst call. Now off just

fractionally on that stock. That's at the top of the hour. And later, Mike Santoli is going to break down how Wall Street is reacting to economic news and earnings growth, whether that's a warning sign for the market. We'll be right back. Welcome back. Let's take a look at some of the biggest overtime movers. Axon is tanking right down now, down about 21%. EPS missing coming in at $1.17 versus the estimate of $1.52, revenue beating slightly. The company raising its fourth quarter revenue guidance, though, to above consensus. Live Nation also heading lower by about 5%. downside and EPS and revenue missed estimates. Revenue coming in at $8.5 billion versus $8.6 estimated concert revenue,

sponsorship and ad revenue, all missing expectations, but ticketing revenue did beat. Super micro falling big as well, down nearly 10% as both EPS and revenue miss. EPS guidance coming in below estimates as well. The revenue outlook was higher than expected, but the move came because the company pushed some expected first quarter 2026 revenue. into the second quarter. And not earnings related, but Estee Lauder falling after announcing a secondary offering, that down about one and a quarter percent. Well, up next, Mike Santoli looks at how the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to economic and earnings growth

and whether it's a red flag for Wall Street. And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell overtime podcast on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get you ready for tomorrow's trade today. On the economic front, we'll get the October ADP jobs and ISM services PMI reports. And then it'll be another big day of earnings. McDonald's Humana, Novo Nordisk, Owens Corning, and Scott's Miracle Grow report before the bell. And in overtime, we'll break down numbers from Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, DoorDash, Robin Hood, and Snap.

Well, stocks are showing sharper refurb. flexes these days, with market moves increasingly hinging on even subtle signals about economic or earning softness. Senior markets commentator Mike Santoli is back. He has some charts that may help frame just how sensitive the tape has become. Mike. Yeah, Morgan, so what this is showing is the correlation between the stock indexes and treasury yields. So what we see here is the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have been very positively correlated over a one-month basis with the direction of Treasury yields, meaning when yields are higher, stock index is higher, when yields have been lower, stock index is lower.

What that suggests is that lower yields are not viewed as a positive signal about inflation as much as a potential negative on the growth pace of the economy. So you see down here, right, it was all about inflation watch. And so anytime yields came down, it was actually more of a positive thing for stocks, so they moved in opposite directions. And so we've intermittently had these periods here when we have. have a minor growth sensitivity. We're in that mode once again. It's good news that the market has moved on, perhaps, from sticky inflation, but now we are on alert for any signs that growth might

be flagging on the consumer side, labor growth, things like that. Now, take a look here at another sign of market sensitivity to any hint that things aren't necessarily going in the right direction. This is the reaction to earnings reports. Bank of America puts this together. It's very long term. It goes back 25 years. What you see is in the last quarters in particular, you've had a pronounced negative reaction relative to the overall index in any stock that misses on both sales and earnings. Now, that's not a tremendous percentage of stocks because almost everybody's been beating, but it shows you that in this environment, there's absolutely no tolerance for anybody falling

short. That's something to keep in mind as well, simply because expectations embedded in stock prices have been relatively elevated because earnings have been good and have been expected to be good. So again, nobody's sending up really bright alarms or anything like that on all this, but it suggests at least that this is where the market is a little bit more concerned. Got it. I'm going to shift gears a little bit here and ask how closely you're watching the yen which strengthens against the dollar today and is arguably approaching levels where Japanese authorities intervened in those markets in 2022 and 2024.

We talk about the yen carry trade. Is this concerning? Yeah, I don't know that it's concerning just at this level, but I think it does fit in with other signs of global liquidity indicators in retreat. So the overall dollar index is up today, even if it wasn't really against the yen. And we were talking about Bitcoin earlier and some of these other signals that were just a little bit less generously supplied with liquidity at the moment. All right. Mike Santoli, thank you. One more big earnings mover to show you before we go tracks the debt company down 20% in overtime, missing on earnings and revenue, saying it is seeing continued weakness in the repair and remodel sector elsewhere at home. Morgan,

I'm looking forward to DoorDash earnings tomorrow. A little bit of a consumer signal there, as well as Qualcomm, which I give a look at overall mobility and smartphones on top of everything else. Yeah, we also get the opening arguments for the IEPA case in front of the Supreme Court regarding some of those trade and tariff dynamics, too. So something else to watch. That's going to do it for us here at overtime. Fast money starts now.