Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime 11/9/22

Episode Date: November 9, 2022

A fast-paced look at the after-hours moves and late-breaking news live from the New York Stock Exchange. Closing Bell Overtime drills down into stocks and sectors, interviews some of the world’s most influential investors and gets you ready for the next day’s action.

All right, Sharon, thank you very much. Welcome, everybody, to a busy overtime. I'm Scott Wapner. You just heard the bells. We are just getting started from post-9 here at the New York Stock Exchange. Got some earnings about to drop as Wynn and Rivian are set to report. We're all over that, obviously, with everything you need to know. We do begin, though, with our talk of the tape. It is that news breaking in the last 15 minutes. Binance walking away from its deal to buy FTX. Stocks clearly unsettled over the fallout of that still developing story. Josh Brown is here from Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's the CEO, of course, the co-founder, CNBC contributor also with us, Mike Santoli and Kate

Rooney, who's been following the story for us all day and has some new news for us, which is why I'll get to you first, Kate. Hi, Scott. That's right. So Binance's deal to buy FTX is officially off the table. We have a statement here from a Binance spokesperson. They say as a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged U.S. agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX.com. They go on to say, in the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX's customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help. Scott, this had been a non-binding letter of intent, but the deal not going through, according to that statement. Back to you.

All right. That's Kate Rooney with the latest. And stay with us, if you will. I mentioned I do have Josh Brown and Mike Santoli standing by as well. We're all trying to sort of get to the bottom of all of this. And I've got some new information on the losses investors may be looking at now. I've been asking around to see who's most on the hook here. In terms of a number, I'm told by sources we could be looking at somewhere near $2 billion or so cash that was invested by major venture firms over the past couple of years. Well-known firms like Sequoia and Paradigm, Lightspeed, Tiger and Insight, who all invested at valuations ranging from $16 billion to $32 billion. Now, on a mark-to-market

basis, we could be talking about a markdown of $3 to $3.5 billion if those investments do, in fact, go to zero. Now, some of you might say, well, how can it only be $2 billion in cash losses if the valuation of FTX was $32 billion? Well, because the company actually only raised a small amount of money relative to its market cap due to its early profitability and the fact that Sam Bankman Freed owned the majority of the company himself. Over $20 billion of the losses fall on him. Of note, other investors, according to a document I've seen, are names like BlackRock,

the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, and SoftBank. So I think we're all, Mike, trying to get to the bottom of all of this. I think in the grand scheme of things, when you realize just how much of the company that Sam owned himself, yes, $2 billion of cash losses is not an insignificant number, but it's certainly not what it could be had they brought in even more investors, but they didn't need to from the beginning. That's a nick. Obviously, that's not all it is. But if that were all it is in terms of out-of-pocket losses, I mean, the NASDAQ mark to market is at $8 trillion in the last year. Let's keep that in mind in terms of scaling this stuff.

It's much more about the losses that are being sustained collectively based on what's happening to crypto. That's right. Based on what bumps up against those assets in portfolios and how much people think that there are, you know, intertwined exposures related to it. I don't have any basis for deciding if there's anything to worry about there. And I don't think the market necessarily has specific concerns either. It just has generalized concerns of what we don't know. Yeah. And to be clear, the $2 billion in cash losses, what I'm speaking of, is directly related and only related to the venture money. Checks that were actually written to FTX by some of the best known venture firms that are in existence. The other issues are yet to be determined because we simply don't know. Josh? Well, I think the big issue here is sentiment. And the big issue here is a huge

question mark now over investors. If these guys didn't know what was going on here, then who can you really trust? Think about these names. These are the proverbial smartest people in the room. This is Tiger Global. This is Izzy Englander, Ribbit Capital, Temasek, VanEck, the rehypothecation of securities and cash, all kinds of stuff that should not have taken place and would not in traditional finance because there's oversight. So I think if you're looking at this, here, let me give you an example, collateral damage, Robinhood. The stock is down 30% in two days. And keep in mind, this thing rallied after they reported earnings that's 100 percent because of the the now lack of trust in anything that's been touched by sam bankman freed how many other stories are there like that out there and how many more can we sustain given uh as mike referenced

the already enormous losses of this year which by, by the way, are way bigger than the losses sustained during the dot-com crash from 2000 to 2002. I'm glad you mentioned the dot-com crash because, you know, all throughout this upset in the market, if you want to call it that, Mike, and the re-rating of those highest of high-flying tech stocks. We've heard and we've searched for, is this the next 2000? Is this the next this or that? And I have people telling me that I was speaking with right before I came here, that this is actually the most common thing to what we saw back then. This kind of blow up here. Insolvency and one day bankruptcies. Something deemed to be the greatest thing ever that goes poof in 10 seconds.

And on the other side of it, which is where we are right now, just this recognition of a massive misallocation of capital based on exactly that kind of a hope. Now, the whole thing might not have been just complete fantasy, obviously, but there was a lot of money, excited money, that also compounded so quickly that it was very hard to have a rational opinion that said, maybe this has gone too far. You don't understand. Abstract

stuff goes up in value all the time. Now, you're seeing something similar in real companies, smaller companies that weren't very profitable. We are in a somewhat like a post 2000 hangover where people are saying, look, I don't know if these small busted growth companies can outrun the dilution of their stock based compensation at this point. Right. A lot of these companies are completely kind of having a hard time stay staying above water in that respect. But if you tell if you say to me, is this a rerun of 2000, 2002? Was it the same kind of a bubble? My standard is, can the NASDAQ go down 75% from the peak? I really, really doubt it based on the make-go.

But crypto can. It has. Crypto can. And crypto is today's NASDAQ of 2000. Yeah, that's fine. But again, that's a little bit more of a sideshow than even the NASDAQ was in 2000 based on the number of people employed,

you know, based on where it sat in terms of, you know, index portfolios and all the rest of it. So, you know, again, it's a fun kind of barstool debate. I just don't know if right now it allows us to further quantify what's left in terms of risk and shoes to drop. Kate Rooney, I'm wondering if you can just get in on the conversation, too, about where

Josh went. Companies you cover like Robinhood, which is down significantly over the last couple of days, all of these ancillary players in this industry that are seeing severe pain as a result of what we're talking about. Robinhood is an interesting one. So Sam Bankman Freed took a stake, about a 7% stake in Robinhood earlier this year. There were rumors that he was planning to swoop in and come and buy Robinhood. That obviously didn't pan out, and that's part of the weakness here. I also talked to someone earlier who said there were short sellers that jumped on that and probably added to some of the pain for Robinhood. But you're seeing it as far as the risk appetite. You're seeing it with Bitcoin. And a lot of these companies are really proxies for growth

and proxies for risk. Robinhood Coinbase also came out yesterday, despite saying what they had was no material ties to FTX. They've gotten hit. So you're seeing it really play out. And then the effect on Bitcoin as well. There's now calls for a bottom around $13,000. Fundstrat had a note out telling clients essentially to raise cash and that there's likely other shoes to drop and skeletons in the closet, as they call it, in terms of counterparties and more collateral risk out there that we still likely don't know. And that has gotten even worse now that Binance isn't stepping in and providing that support and confidence to the market. Yeah, I can't really it's hard to even fathom, Josh, the destruction of one person's net

worth overnight is as stunning as anything else, because Sam Bankman Freed was ubiquitous on this network and anybody else who needed somebody who was considered to be the person, the expert on what this was when a lot of people didn't get what it was and where it may be going in the future. And here we are talking about the implosion of that. You know, it's easy to go back now and think about things that maybe could have been warning signs that FTX for the venture investors or the FTT token weren't slam dunk bets. And one of those things is a very candid set of podcast interviews that Sam Bankman-Fried did over the summer, playfully talking about the ubiquity of

Ponzi schemes throughout DeFi. And another would be, look how many engineers and lawyers are employed by Coinbase. And by the way, Coinbase has to actually publicly show its books as part of being publicly traded. None of the other exchanges do. I think this company was operating with a few dozen people, even at its peak. And so little things like that, if you had added them up, in hindsight, it's really easy to play this game and say, wow, how is it possible that this company came along from 2019 and was worth $32 billion on paper? One last thing on this. It's really hard to build a startup. It's really hard to build an exchange for anything. It's really hard to build a brokerage. But the level of difficulty of building that on top of an asset class that has five times the beta of the S&P 500, and then to do so using leverage, and then to do so in the midst of a crash of that asset class and then to take it further and try to play JP Morgan. It's like really remarkable what's been going on all year.

Can you tell our investors, whether you think it are our investing viewers, whether whether you think it is safe today to own any crypto-related publicly traded equity, for example. Would you? There aren't many. I think there's a couple of miners. I think there's Coinbase and Robinhood. You could consider Robinhood. Safe from what perspective?

These stocks are in the middle of the maelstrom. They're going to get moved around. So I'm not sure what you mean by safe. You mean safe as a long-term bet? I don't know. I'm not in them currently. I'm not looking to buy them currently. I really couldn't say.

But don't you own Bitcoin? I do. All right, so how are you feeling about just being invested in Bitcoin today? Right, I'm looking, what is it? 16.1 is where I see it currently. Look, Bitcoin is going to continue to be liquidated by people that need capital from other things that have blown up. But if you talk to hardcore dyed in the wool crypto people, real decentralization people, the thing that you hear over and over again is that actually they'll always start the sense with actually this proves that decentralization is the only thing that works. Every one of these

blowups was a highly centralized, highly levered quasi-corporation, and that's what sets them apart from ETH and from BTC. You don't have to agree with that argument. That is the argument that you will hear increasingly from people that aren't ready to give up on this asset class. Yeah. Michael, do you think this changes the way people view this asset class? I'm sure it will, but I think it's been ongoing for well over a year right now because the way the majority, if you did the sort of volume-weighted average price and the average level of individual excitement around Bitcoin, it was entirely about price momentum.

And there was an overlay of this has some really cool technology and this principles around it mean it could have broad application and maybe digital gold is all it is. But hey, wouldn't that be great? So I don't think that goes away. One Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin used to be a joke. Now it's kind of grim humor. So who knows what it's worth in dollars? But I do think that, no, it's a massive rethink. And look, I think it was always OK to ignore it, to be honest with you, right? If it was going to be something that you needed to care about, it was going to have to become bigger and more relevant to your life. Or it's just going to be this

great thing that revolutionizes the clearance and settlement of securities. Of course. But, you know, there are a lot of investors over the last, you know, 18 to 24 months who were, you know, swept into this whole aura of crypto. There is the Robinhood fallout. MicroStrategy is obviously a publicly traded entity as well. And they're feeling their own pain as it relates to this, too. Look at Block, right? the former square, okay? That's right.

Down 76% from its high. It's a $33 billion market cap right now. The CEO, Jack Dorsey, kind of threw its future, in a sense, in with Bitcoin specifically, not too far from the top. The core business is a pretty good business. It seems to be performing okay, even though there's some headwinds. That's an interesting situation, if you want to say how much of this is either unduly tarnished by the correlation with Bitcoin prices or how much of it, you know, means that it's compromised the franchise. So there are interesting questions

around it. I'm sure opportunities are going to develop out of it. I just, you know, look, I missed the run up too. Doesn't Tesla hold some Bitcoin on the balance sheet? What I think will be very telling in the next 30 days or 60 days will be how many Fortune 500 companies that have adopted a crypto strategy quietly walk away or quietly start shelving products or laying off engineers they've hired. Visa and MasterCard are filing patents on blockchain. This is not all smoke and mirrors. Goldman is trading. Fidelity is pushing crypto into retirement accounts for people who want it. It's now become, I don't want to say systemic, but it absolutely has been adopted by thousands of quote unquote real companies that are not crypto native. So it'll be very interesting to see how

many of those projects get abandoned. All right. I completely agree with that, except that nobody who's advocating for that has ever been able to say, how does that correlate with a particular price of Bitcoin? We're showing you this breaking news here. The president making his first comments now since the midterms. Let's listen in. And I think it was a good day for America. Excuse me, I have a little horse. Our democracy has been tested in recent years, but with their votes, the American people have spoken and proven once again that democracy is who we are.

The states across the country saw record voter turnout. And the heart and soul of our democracy, the voters, the poll workers, the election officials, they did their job and they fulfilled their duty, and apparently without much interference at all, without any interference, it looks like. And that's a testament, I think, to the American people. While we don't know all the results yet, at least I don't know them all yet, here's what we do know. While the press and the pundits are predicting a giant red wave, it didn't happen. And I know you were somewhat miffed by my obsessive optimism, but I felt good during the whole process. I thought we were going to do fine. While any seat lost is painful, some good Democrats didn't win the last night. Democrats had a strong night, and we lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives than any Democratic president's

first midterm election in the last 40 years, and we had the best midterm for governors since 1986. And another thing that we know is that voters spoke clearly about their concerns about raising costs or the rising costs that they're in and the need to get inflation down. There's still a lot of people hurting. They're very concerned. And it's about crime and public safety. And they sent a clear and unmistakable message that they want to preserve our democracy and protect the right to choose in this country. And I especially want to thank the young people of this nation, who I'm told, I haven't seen the numbers, voted historic numbers again, and just as they did two years ago. And they voted to continue addressing the climate crisis, gun violence, their personal rights and freedoms and a student debt relief.

Last night, I was pleased to call Maxwell Frost, a 25 year old who got elected, I guess, the youngest man ever elected to the United States Congress. And I told him that he told him that I was the first elected, the second youngest person ever elected United States Senator, 29. But I have no doubt he's off to an incredible start and what I'm sure will be a long, distinguished career. And when he's president, they say Joe Biden's out in the outer office. I don't want to say Joe who. But the voters were also clear that they are still frustrated. I get it. I understand it's been a really tough few years in this country for so many people. When I came to office, we inherited a nation with a pandemic raging and an economy that was reeling. And we acted quickly and boldly to vaccinate the country and to create a stable and sustained growth in our economy.

Long-term investment to rebuild America itself, our roads, our bridges, our ports, our airports, clean water systems, high-speed Internet. And we're just getting started. The interesting thing is that this is all going to really come into clear view for people in the months of January, February, March of next year. It's just getting underway. So I'm optimistic about how the public is going to even be more embracive of what we've done. Historic investments that are leading companies to invest literally hundreds of billions of dollars combined to build semiconductor factories and other advanced manufacturing here in America. It's going to create tens of thousands of good-paying jobs.

And by the way, a significant number of those jobs are going to be jobs that pay an average $126,000, $127,000. You don't need a college degree to get those jobs. And we're dealing with global inflation as a result of the pandemic and Putin's war in Ukraine. We're also handling it better than most other advanced nations in the world. We're lowering gas prices. We're taking on powerful interests, lower prescription drug costs, and health insurance premiums and energy bills. After 20 months of hard work, the pandemic no longer controls our lives. It's still a concern, but no longer controls our lives. Our economic policies have created a record 10

million new jobs since I came into office. Unemployment rate is down from 6.4 when I was sworn in to 3.7 percent, near a 50-year low. And we've done all this while lowering the federal deficit in the two years by $1.7 trillion. Let me say it again, $1.7 trillion. No administration has ever cut the deficit that much. And reducing the federal deficit is one of the best things we can do to lower inflation. But while we've made real progress as a nation, I know it's hard for folks to see that project, that progress in their everyday lives. And it's hard to see the results from actions that we took while we have to implement what we've done. But I believe we took the right steps for the country and for the American people. In fact, if you look at the polls, overwhelming majority,

I don't look at them much anymore because I'm not quite sure how to read them anymore. I hope you are uncertain as well. But overwhelming majority of American people support the elements of my economic agenda, from rebuilding America's roads and bridges, to lowering prescription drug costs, to historic investment in tackling the climate crisis, to making sure that large corporations begin to pay their fair share in taxes. I'm confident these policies are working and that we're on the right path and we need to stick with them. All these initiatives take hold as they do from lead pipes being removed from schools and

homes to new factories being built in communities with a resurgence of American manufacturers. It's already created, by the way, 700,000 brand new manufacturing jobs. You've heard me say it ad nauseum. I don't know where it's written. It says we can't be the manufacturing capital of the world. We are now exporting product, not jobs, around the world. People across the country are going to see even more clearly the positive effects on their day-to-day lives. But I still understand why they're hurting right now so many people are concerned.

As I have throughout my career, I'm going to continue to work across the aisle to deliver for the American people. And it's not always easy, but we did it the first term. And I'll be surprised a lot of people that we signed over 210 bipartisan laws since I've become president and we're revitalizing American manufacturing, gun safety, we did it together, and dozens of laws positively impacting on our veterans.

Let me say this, regardless of what the final tally in these elections show, and there's still some counting going on, I'm prepared to work with my Republican colleagues. The American people have made clear, I think, that they expect Republicans to be prepared to work with me as well. In the area of foreign policy, I hope we'll continue this bipartisan approach of confronting Russia's aggression in Ukraine. When I return from the G20 meetings in Indonesia with other world leaders, I'm going to invite the leaders of both political parties, as I've done in the past in my foreign trips, to the White House to discuss how we can work together for the remainder of this year and into the next Congress to advance the economic and national security priorities of the United States.

And I'm open to any good ideas. I want to be very clear. I'm not going to support any Republican proposal that's going to make inflation worse. For example, the voters don't want to pay higher prescription costs for drugs. We've cut that now. We're going to kick into gear next year, next calendar year, and I'm not going to walk away from the historic commitments we just made to take on the climate crisis. They're not compromisable issues to me, and I won't let it happen. The voters don't want more taxes for the super tax cuts for the super wealthy and biggest corporations. And I'm going to continue to focus on cost cutting for working and middle class families and building an economy from the bottom up in the middle out. I know you're tired of hearing me say that, but I genuinely mean it.

That's what makes America grow. The wealthy do very well when the middle class is doing well, and the poor have a way up. And while continuing to bring down the federal deficit. You know, as we look at tax cuts, we should be looking at tax cuts for working people and middle class people, not the very wealthy. They're fine. Look, if you can go out and be a multimillionaire, that's great. Just pay your fair share. That's all. That's all. Just pay your fair share. It's like those 55 corporations in 2000 that made $40 billion and then paid a penny in federal taxes. It's not right. Everybody has an obligation. So now they have to pay a staggering 15 percent. You all pay more than that for new taxes. So I'm going to keep my commitment that no one,

no one earning less than $400,000 a year, and that's a lot of money where I come from, are going to see their federal taxes go up. And I want to be very clear. Under no circumstances will I support the proposals put forward by Senators Johnson and the Senator from down in Florida to cut or make fundamental changes in Social Security and Medicare. That's not on the table. I will not do that. I will veto any attempt to pass a national ban on abortion, but I'm ready to compromise with Republicans where it makes sense on many other issues. And I'll always put the needs and interests of the American people first.

So let me close with this. On this election season, the American people made it clear they don't want every day going forward to be a constant political battle. There's too much of that going on. There's too much that we have to do. The future of America is too promising, too promising to be trapped in an endless political warfare.

And I really mean it. You've heard me say it time and again for the last 20 months or so. I am so optimistic about the prospects for America. We need to be looking to the future, not fixated on the past. And that future is bright as can be. We're the only nation in the world that's come out

of every crisis stronger than we went into the crisis. And that's a fact. I mean, I literally mean that. We've come out stronger than we've gone in. And I've never been more optimistic about America's future than I am today. You know, I particularly, because of all those young people I talked about, 18 to 30. They're showing up.

They're the best educated generation in American history. They're the least prejudiced generation in American history, the most engaged generation in American history, and the most involved. Look, after a long campaign season, I still believe what I always have. This is a great nation, and we're a great people. And it's never been a good bet to bet against America. Never been a good bet to bet against America. There's nothing, nothing beyond our capacity if we work together.

We just need to remember who the hell we are. We're the United States of America. The United States of America. There's nothing beyond our capacity. And I'm pretty well convinced that we're going to be able to get a lot done. Now, I've been given a list of ten people that I'm supposed to call on, and you're all supposed to ask me one question, but I'm sure you'll ask me more. And so let me start off with a list I've been given. Zeke Miller, Associated Press.

Thank you, Mr. President. I have two questions for you. As you mentioned, How come we never hold you guys in the same standard you hold us to? But anyway, go ahead. I'm teasing, I'm teasing. You mentioned that Americans are frustrated. In fact, 75% of voters say the country is heading into the wrong direction, despite the results of last night. What in the next two years do you intend to do differently to change people's opinion of the direction of the country, particularly as you contemplate a run for president in 2024? Nothing, because they're just finding out what we're doing.

The more they know about what we're doing, the more support there is. Do you know anybody who wants us to get rid of the change we made on prescription drug prices and raise prices again? Do you know anybody who wants us to walk away from building those roads and bridges and the Internet and so on? I don't know any—I think that the problem is the major piece of legislation we passed, and some of it bipartisan, takes time to be recognized. For example, you got over a trillion dollars' worth of infrastructure money,

but not that many spades have been put in the ground. It's taking time. For example, I was on the phone congratulating a Californian recently, and then someone up in Scranton, Pennsylvania, the congressman who got elected. He said, can you help us make sure we're able to have high-speed rail service from Scranton to New York, New York City? I said, yeah, we can. We can. First of all, it'll make it a lot easier, take a lot of vehicles off the road, and we have more money in the pot now, already out there, we've voted for, than the entire

money we spent on Amtrak to begin with. And it's the same way, for example, I talked about through the campaign that we're going to limit the cost of insulin for seniors to $35 a month instead of $400 a month. Well, it doesn't take effect until next year. So there's a lot of things that are just starting to kick in, and the same way with what we've done in terms of the environmental stuff. It takes time to get it moving. So I'm not going to change.

As a matter of fact, there's some things I want to change and add to. For example, we've passed the most bipartisan, we've passed the most extensive gun legislation, anti-rational gun policy in 30 years, but we didn't ban assault weapons. I'm going to ban assault weapons. They're going to try like the devil. So I'm not going to change the direction. I said I ran for three reasons. I'm going to continue to stay where I am. And I know I fully understand the legitimate concern that

what I'm saying is wrong, okay? One is that I said we're going to restore the soul of the country, begin to treat each other with decency, honor, and integrity. And it's starting to happen. People are, the conversations are becoming more normal, becoming more, more, how can I say it, decent. Second thing I said was I want to build a country from the middle out, the bottom up,

and that way everybody does fine. I'm tired of trickle down. Not a whole lot trickles down when you trickle down to hardworking folks. The third thing I know is still very hard. I'm going to do everything in my power to see to it that we unite the country. It's hard to sustain yourself as a leading democracy in the world if you can't generate some unity. So I'm not going to change anything in any fundamental way. Just on a different topic, Mr. President, Russia today claimed that it had evacuated the Khorasan region and the Kursan city.

Do you believe that this is potentially an inflection point in that conflict? And do you believe that Ukraine now has the leverage it needs to begin peace negotiations with Moscow? First of all, I found it interesting they waited until after the election to make that judgment, which we knew for some time that they were going to be doing. And it's evidence of the fact that they have some real problems, the Russian military, number one. Number two, whether or not that leads to, at a minimum, it will lead to time for everyone to recalibrate their positions over the winter period. And it remains to be seen whether or not there will be

a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia. I'm going to be going to the G20. I'm told that President Putin is not likely to be there, but other world leaders are going to be there in Indonesia. And we're going to have an opportunity to see what the next steps may be. Nancy, CBS, Nancy Cordes. Thank you, Mr. President. I have a few questions. I've been saving them up. First of all,

Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy said last night that it is clear we are going to take the House back. Do you think he's probably right about that? Well, based on what we know as of today, we've lost very few seats for certain. We still have a possibility of keeping the House, but it's going to be close. For example, in Nevada, we won all three of those seats, contested seats. I went out for each of those. I spoke for each of those folks. But we won them all.

I didn't know that last night. So it's a moving target right now. But it's going to be very close. Can you describe your relationship with Mr. McCarthy? How often do you speak to him? What do you think of him? I think he's a Republican leader, and I haven't had much of an occasion to talk to him. But I will be talking to him? What do you think of him? I think he's a Republican leader and I haven't had much of occasion to talk to him. But I will be talking to him, I think, later today.

When it comes to your legislative agenda, when you were vice president, your legislative agenda basically ran into a brick wall two years in when Republicans took control of the House. And that lasted for the rest of the Obama presidency. Is there any way for you to prevent that same fate from happening this time around? Yes. If Republicans take control of the House. Yes, because it's going to be much closer if they take control. Look, the predictions were, and again, I'm not being critical of anybody who made the predictions.

I got it, okay? This is supposed to be a red wave. You guys, you were talking about us losing 30 to 50 seats, and this is going to – no, that's not going to happen. And so there's always enough people on the other team, whether it's Democrat or Republican, that the opposite party can make an appeal to and maybe pick them off to get the help. And so it remains to be seen. But look, I doubt whether or not, for example, all the talk I'd ask, I don't expect you to answer,

but the rhetorical question, do you think that, you know, Senator Johnson is going to move to cut Medicare and Social Security? And if he does, how many Republicans are going to vote for it? So it depends. And then my final question. Republicans have made it clear that if they do take control of the House, that they want to launch a raft of investigations on day one into your handling of Afghanistan, the border. They want to look into some of your cabinet officials. They want to investigate you. They may even want to investigate your son.

What's your message to Republicans who are considering investigating your family and particularly your son Hunter's business dealings? Lots of luck in your senior year, as my coach used to say. Look, I think the American public wants to move on and get things done for them. And, you know, I heard that there were, it was reported, whether it's accurate or not, I'm not sure, but it was reported many times that Republicans were saying, and the former president said, how many times are you going to impeach Biden? You know, impeachment proceeding against Biden. I mean, I think the American people will look at all of that for what it is.

It's just, I'm almost comedy. I mean, it's, but, you know, look, I can't control what they're going to do. All I can do is continue to try to make life better for the American people. Okay. Phil, Phil Mattingly, CNN. Thank you, Mr. President. I have 37 quick—I'm kidding. Sir, at a fundraiser last month, you said, quote, the rest of the world is looking at this election, both the good guys and the bad guys. You noted you're going to the G20 in a couple days. You'll come face to face with many of those leaders, the same moment that your predecessor

is considering launching his re-election effort. How should those world leaders, both good guys and bad guys, view this moment both for America and for your presidency? Well, first of all, these world leaders know we're doing better than anybody else in the world. It's a practical matter. Notwithstanding the difficulties we have, our economy is growing. You saw the last report. We're still growing at 2.6%. We're creating jobs. We're still in a solid position. And there's not many other countries in the world are in that position. And I promise you, from the telephone calls I still have and from the meetings I have with other heads of state, they're looking to the United States

and saying, how are you doing? What are you doing? What can we do together? So I think that the vast majority of my colleagues, at least those colleagues who are NATO members, European Union, Japan, South Korea, et cetera, I think they're looking to cooperate and wanting to know how we can help one another. And what was the other question? Oh, I'm sorry. No, no, no. So I think the one way I would follow up on that is you noted that you felt like there was a shift in terms of people being willing to show more decency in this moment. You've often talked about breaking the fever or kind of a transition from this moment that we've faced over the last several years. Do you feel like the election is what represents that? Do you feel like the fever is broken, I guess? Well, I don't think we're going to break the fever for the super mega mega Republicans. I mean, but I think they're a minority of the

Republican Party. I think the vast majority of the members of the Republican Party, we disagree strongly on issues, but they're decent, honorable people. We have differences of agreement on issues. But they, you know, I work with a lot of these folks in the Senate and the House for a long time. And, you know, they're honest and they're straightforward. They're different than mine, but they're, you know, they're decent folks. And so I think that the rest of the world, and a lot of you have covered other parts of the world and you know, the rest of the world looking at the United States, I guess the best way to say this is to repeat what some of you heard me say before. The first G7 meeting for the public, that's the seven

largest democracies, when I went to, right after we got elected in February, after I got sworn in in January. And I sat down at a table, a round table, with the six other world leaders from the European Union and Canada, et cetera, and said, America's back. And one of them turned to me and said, for how long? For how long? It was a deadly earnest question. For how long? And I looked at them, and then another one went on to say, and I'm not going to name them, went on to say, what would you say, Joe, if in fact we went to bed tonight here in England, woke up the next morning and found out that thousands of people had stormed the Parliament of Great Britain, gone down the hall, broken down the doors,

two cops ended up dying, a number of people injured, and they tried to stop the confirmation of an election. It's not the same situation, obviously, as we have. And he said, what would you think? I asked a rhetorical question, what would you all think? You'd think England was really in trouble. You'd think democracy was on the edge if that happened in Great Britain. And so that's the way people were looking at us, like, when's this gonna stop?

Nothing like this has happened since the Civil War. I don't want to exaggerate, but literally, nothing like this has happened since the Civil War. And so what I find is that they want to know, is the United States stable? Do we know what we're about? Are we the same democracy we've always been? Because, look, the rest of the world looks to us.

I don't mean that we're always like we're always right. But if the United States tomorrow were to, quote, withdraw from the world, a lot of things would change around the world. A whole lot would change. And so they're very concerned that we are still the open democracy we've been and that we have rules and the institutions matter. And that's the context in which I think that they're looking at, are we back to a place where we are going to accept decisions made by the court, by the Congress, by the government, et cetera? So the entire genesis of that, here we go. All right.

That's the president, of course, at the White House speaking on the better-than-expected midterm results for Democrats, as well as his agenda moving forward. The president saying democracy was tested. Democracy is who we are. Pointed, of course, to the red wave as well, which didn't happen in the market in the last couple of days, anticipating a much larger win, if you will, by Republicans and had moved higher into today. But you see, of course, what's happened today now with this Binance and FTX, Binance walking away from that deal and what the ramifications are across all markets. We've got CPI looming in the morning. I've got Josh Brown sitting next to me. I want to pick up our

conversation on the market because some suggest that you can't have a true bottom until this crypto stuff figures itself out. Good note from Evercore ISI, which moved in just the last few minutes while we were listening to the president. They suggest Julian Emanuel Bitcoin below the 2019 high of 13 850 will elevate stress, ending the current equity bear market rally and reinforcing our view that 10 13 was a low, not the low. They're talking about if Bitcoin goes below that, you could even have a financial shock. You want to comment on that? I think that's probably true, but not for the market.

I think that's true for the NASDAQ. I really don't. I'm looking at Berkshire Hathaway down 1% today. It's like two different worlds. I think what he's saying directionally is true for anything to do with tech, growth, software, betting on lines of code. But that is a world away from most of the market. Is it?

And interestingly enough. Hold on. Tech is 23, 25 percent of the market. How can it be a world away? How much energy is in the NASDAQ? I understand that. Zero percent. Energy is going to carry the whole rally?

No. And actually, here's what's funny. You would expect to see that tech was the worst sector today, given all this Bitcoin stuff. But actually, energy was. Energy got hammered today. So I think it's really tough to look at one specific thing happening and saying the ramifications are so big that the entirety of the $30 trillion stock market is relying on resolution. I just disagree. All right, so forget that, and let's move to what was the biggest event of the week tomorrow, CPI.

Still is. Before this whole fallout. Of course it is. Still is. And by the way, if you ask me what could pull tech growth, high multiple stocks, what could pull them out of this current tailspin, it's a benign inflation reading that maybe resets some narratives, makes people think more about 50 basis points December,

maybe nothing January, February. That is the kind of thing that absolutely could change the market's direction. It's a binary event we're talking about, right? Hotter than expected CPI throws us into a tailspin. There are very few of these. It really is. And it's not going to trick anyone. It is what you think it is. If the number is hot, hotter than expected, or even on target, we're at risk of further downside. And if the number is better than expected, you are going to see relief in the markets. You may not get it in Adobe. You may not get it in Robinhood. You're going to get it, though, in a lot of very big stocks that matter to the S&P 500.

Well, you could get it in the Adobe's of the world and some of these other stocks if it's benign, if it's cool, if rates drop. Those stocks are likely to end up doing better. Those stocks are going to remain highly, highly sensitive to the dollar, to rates, but also to this idea of a demand crunch and a looming economic slowdown. Anything enterprise tech is going to be very tough for the next three to six months. There's just no way around it. I wish that weren't true. It's absolutely the case. We seem to be so correlated.

Forget the crypto and Bitcoin story to the dollar. That's been an ongoing story the last couple of days. Well, yes, of course. The last couple of days, dollar weaker stocks up today, dollar strong stocks down. I still think that's the whole ballgame. The dollar is reacting to inflation expectations. And when you see the dollar pull in, stocks got a shot that day. If you look at this year, it's incredible. Not only the dollar advance, but the way the market has traded. We have the fewest days that were green the entire day going back to 2002.

It's been 20 years since you've seen a tape this terrible on an average everyday basis. Maybe the dollar is also calling BS on Bitcoin and all those who suggest that that's the next to replace the dollar. That's the next safe haven assets or a value. Nobody, nobody of nobody really believe that. I'm old enough to remember when really high inflation would be amazing for gold and terrible for the dollar. And that obviously, of course, the inverse is true this year. A lot of those types of narratives have not been successful as investment strategies. I don't think that'll change.

It's great having you for this long to comment on all of these breaking stories. Josh, thanks. That's Josh Brown here on set with us. We'll be right back. All right, welcome back to Overtime. Our next guest says the dollar, like Josh said, whole ballgame, is the key to where the S&P 500 goes for the rest of the year. Cameron Dawson, New Edge Wealth, is with us right here. It's good to see you. Before we get to that, obviously, CPI, we got the crypto crash fallout. How are you thinking about all of this?

Well, I think we start with crypto because this is really the capturing of the liquidity issues that we still have in this market. Crypto is a liquidity trade. So as we see money supply growth continue to slow, it's likely that these assets will continue to struggle. What that means for traditional assets is that we keep having these rallies, relief rallies and multiples. Those are driven by liquidity as well. So this is all a sign that we're not out of the woods in this bear market and that we really haven't seen that true capitulative flush that we need to get this to be over. Maybe this is the thing that sparks that. Stocks can't bottom until Bitcoin bottoms. Is that fair to say or is that too correlated? I think that that could possibly be the case. I think stocks can't bottom until the retail investor gives up because that's what

we see at the end of every major bear market. How do we know they haven't? Well, because if we look at stock allocations in the AAII survey, they're down from 70 percent, but they're still at 65. Back in 08, 09, they got lower than 40 percent. And if we see another retail favorite is ARK. ARK has had inflows this year. They had inflows until about two months ago. This is not signs of people absolutely giving up. Another new low today, by the way. Exactly. For that. But, you know, you heard Josh, I think, suggest that the dollar is the whole ballgame in his words. You agree?

I think it's very critical because as we saw the dollar correct, of course, that was really helpful for seeing the October rally. But we're hitting that support at 109. If we rally up from there, I think that the next level of the market will be down lower, meaning we retest those October lows. But if the dollar continues to break down, maybe that's the breather we can for us to get to that 200-day. What's really at stake tomorrow morning? CPI? Everything? It is so very important because look at the Treasury auction today. We had a 10-year treasury auction. It was awful, absolutely abysmal. Nobody wanted to step into duration. Clearly, there is worry that the CPI print could come in hot, which could drive the market lower. Of course, if it's a little bit lighter, that could provide more relief. But I think the big risk is that it comes in hot.

I mean, there are some trading desks that are suggesting if it comes in really hot, you could have a really negative event in the market tomorrow. It could be true. I mean, obviously, we saw the big rally into October. And so we did see a lot of the CTAs, the hedge funds positioning flip to being much more bullish. So we don't have that very short, very bearish positioning that could kind of absorb a negative shock like we would have had at the beginning of October when people were far more bearish positioned. I appreciate your patience through our breaking news. Cameron Dawson here with us once again in overtime. We'll see you again soon. Coming up, we're tracking some

big movers in overtime. Christina Partsenevelos is standing by with that for us. Christina. While the user count is up, but dating app firm Bumble is still making less revenue per user. And Beyond Meat posting a loss again this quarter. I'll have all the details next. Mentioned at the top of the show, we do have earnings. Rivian, they're out. Phil LeBeau. Hey, Scott, check out shares of Rivian moving higher up about 8% after the company reported a smaller thanthan-expected loss of $1.57 a share.

The revenue did come in lighter than expected, but not by a lot. $536 million, the expectation was $551 million. But the stock is moving higher for three reasons. One, it reaffirmed its guidance to build at least 25,000 vehicles this year. It also reaffirmed its guidance in terms of how much money it expects to lose this year. So there's no negative surprise out there. And the company's reservation total, it grew. It's now up to 114,000. Conference call starting in a couple of minutes. We're going to hop on it. We'll have more a little bit later on. Scott, back to you. Appreciate that, Phil LeBeau. Thank you very much. We're tracking some other big movers as well in overtime. Christina Partsenevelos,

as I said, is here with us now. Christina? Let's start with Bumble shares plunging even though it beat on earnings. The stock falling for two reasons. Q4 guidance is weaker than expected. And the total average revenue per user has declined from Q2 and is only up 1% year over year, even though paying users grew. So that means the company is making less per user. And that's why you're seeing shares plunge 15%. Shares of Match also falling in sympathy right now, down about 4 percent. Once a pandemic favorite, RingCentral up after beating on earnings. You have even subscription revenues that came in higher than anticipated. But the Q4 guidance fell a little bit short of

expectations. The company, which already announced it's cutting staff by 10 percent, plans to continue cost cuts well into Q1 of next year. You can see shares are up almost 10% right now. Last but not least, Beyond Meat posting a bigger than expected loss while also missing on Q4 revenue and full year revenue guidance. It estimates a $4 million charge for severance and benefits to occur in Q4 this current quarter. Inflation, higher rates, and weaker than expected demand in plant-based meats continues to weigh on the brand. Shares are up ever so slightly, one quarter of a percent. Scott.

All right, Christina, thank you. Up next, the results to our Twitter question. We did tweet it out at the top of the show. We'll be right back. All right, to the results of our Twitter question. We asked you, will tomorrow's CPI report come in hotter or cooler than expected? The majority of you saying hotter, some 56% of you thinking that. Sure to remind you as well, we have a big interview tomorrow in overtime.

Carl Icahn exclusively with us tomorrow. Hope you'll join us for that. Get his thoughts on what the CPI is, midterms, etc. Look forward to seeing all of you back on the desk. See what it means for the markets as well. That does it for us. I'll see you tomorrow. Fast money begins right now.