Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 2/12/26

Episode Date: February 12, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's ringing an end to the training day at the NYC, Veridermics, ringing the bell in at the NASDAQ, Polarics, Therapeutics, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime, live from studio be at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee along with Mike Santoli. Stock selling off as AI fears once again hitting the markets, getting back toward the lows right into the close. The Dow down 670 points. The SNB 500 down 1.5 percent. A NASDAQ lower by more than two.

Much more in the markets coming up. And we have another big hour of earnings reports for you. Our reporters are at the ready. Coinbase, Airbnb, Draft Kings, Applied Materials, and Rivian, among the names we're watching, but there are many others as well. Before we get to those numbers, let's start with today's big mover. Sima Modi has the details. Seema. Hey, Mike, the sell-off was primarily in software, but the broadening out to other large tech heavyweights was notable.

Apple, for example, recording its worst day since April of last year, Amazon clocking its eighth down day in a row. And then there's two big earning movers, Apple 11, despite. a beaten raise CEO Adam Farhooi's comments on outbeating competition from the large language models. That didn't seem to instill confidence. Cisco's earnings report, the culprit was memory chips, soaring cost, dampening its outlook, and the drop in trucking and logistics names, reinforcing how sensitive the market has become to the perceived fear of an AI competitor, in this case a small company named Algorithm holdings, a similar concern weighing on commercial real estate stocks, the latest victim of the artificial intelligence threat led by shares of CBRE,

Now, Cisco's comments on memory providing fuel to that trade, Micron, Sandysk, Western Digital, ending the day higher. Now, the recent volatility in tech and this rotation into consumer staples, that's warranting a closer look at valuations. Salesforce and Service Now guys, both trading at half their historic multiples, while Walmart is now trading at 48 times earnings, which is just indicative of how investors are placing their bets so far this year. Mel and Michael? Yeah, Seema, thanks. Sima Modi. and I was commenting on Walmart earlier today in the group chat here. I mean, Walmart is like the perfect stock, perfect, in quotes,

because AI will only help it, and it can't be disrupted by AI either. Can't be disrupted. As a bonus, it's in the Consumer Staples sector, which is now having a buying frenzy. But it does reflect just how narrow the lanes of conviction our investors have right now. And I think some of these sell-offs we're seeing in these other pockets of the market. Yeah, sure, there's a vague potential AI threat out there. But I think what it does is expose just the lack of confidence people have in the fundamental story after we've had this run.

Market's been rotating away from damage for a long time. I keep talking about how we were kind of lucky to avoid the index level pain. Seeing some of that now, just want to dial back. October 27th, the S&P 500 rallied to this level on, oh, we're going to get a rate cut in October, maybe we get some China trade deal. I mean, that's how far back we go that we've been churning and treading water. You could say that's a positive consolidation. you could say it's a stalling out of the market.

But today there are some cracks with volatility up so sharply. Absolutely, up above 20. Energy, which had been a leader sort of falling by the wayside in today. Exactly. Some of the recent winners maybe had overshot. Exactly. All right. Well, as investors pull back from tech and AI-related names,

money is being poured in different areas of the market. It's been staples. We were talking about energy materials, utilities, that are now leading this market this year. Staples and materials up more than 15% in 2026, while tech is off nearly 5%. But is the rotation sustainable? Joining us now, BD8, Capital Partners, CEO and CIO Barbara Doran,

and Seymour Asset Management, CIO, CNBC contributor and fast money trader, Tim Seymour, otherwise known as Timbo. Good to see you both. Barbara, what do you think? Do you think this rotation continues? Are you buying this dip in technology? I am. You are. This is the question.

We've seen this before, whether it was last year in January, the deep seek sell-off, everybody assumed the worst case, or even if you look at the GLP drugs, you know, the obesity drugs a couple years ago. shake check, nobody's going to buy burgers, Coca-Cola, nobody's going to do sweet drinks. So a lot of things get oversold. And right now, you can't prove it's not going to happen. You know, in all the AA, whether today it's real estate or the software.

But I think you can say, you know, the software stocks, when they're cut so dramatically, as you mentioned, you know, ServiceNow and Salesforce, cut dramatically. You can argue they're very oversold. And so there's still more, I think, more to come, you know, in the technology. And you have stocks that are sold off, you know, meta, Amazon. and that's over the big fright over cap spending. Yeah, let's take a pause here. We do have some earnings out.

Applied materials for one. Christina Parts and Nevelis has got those numbers. Christina. This is a chip equipment name that did fall into the close, but we're seeing a beat on the top and bottom line and strong guidance. Let's start with EPS, adjusted EPS, so $2.38, about $18 higher than the street

anticipated on revenues of $7.01 billion, also higher, driven in part by semiconductor revenue, which came in at $5.14 billion. and so just know that it's higher. Non-gap gross margins. We've seen some weakness with other names, but their margins came in at 49.1, so higher than what the street anticipated.

And then the Q2 EPS guide and revenue guide also hired. The company putting in their statement right now, quote, we expect to grow our semiconductor equipment business over 20% this calendar year with the AI data center build-out. So they're benefiting from that, and that's why you're seeing shares up 10.5% right now, guys.

Wow, what a pop. Christina, thanks. Christina Parts Nevelis. Airbnb meantime, they are out as well. McKenzie Seagalos has those numbers. Mack. Results for Airbnb. I've been saying those shares oscillate between, it's down four and a half percent now.

Revenue beating estimates at $2.78 billion versus the $2.72 billion expected. That's the 20th revenue beat in the past 21 quarters. EPS coming in at 56 cents. That's 10 cents below consensus. Profits were hurt by a one-time $90 million tax-related expense. But despite that EPS miss, profits beat. on another crucial metric, adjusted EBITA, solidly topped expectations. In fact, it's a beat on most of the core metrics for Q4, including nights and seats booked,

gross bookings also coming in ahead of estimates at $20.4 billion. And then looking ahead to Q1 forecast, a Q1 revenue guide is a clear beat. Airbnb sees $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion versus the expected $2.53 billion. And then for full year revenue growth, they're calling for at least low double digits versus a 10.2% estimate, but shock shares down about 3% after hours right now, Mel. Yeah, we'll keep watching this one and do not miss an exclusive interview with Airbnb's CEO. That's tomorrow 10 a.m. on Squawk on the street. They just keep coming because Expedia earnings are also out. Contessa Brewer has those numbers. Contessa.

All right, so Melissa, Expedia has an earnings beat here. 3.78 per share adjusted against the street expectation of 336. A revenue beat as well, $3.55 billion, expected $3.42 billion. In fact, Almost every metric, Expedia is outperforming fourth quarter bookings, adjusted EBDA, booked room nights, revenue in their direct-to-consumer business, a beat, in business-to-business, a beat. Now, they say that they're raising their dividend by 20 cents and declaring a quarterly dividend of 48 cents. But still, look at the shares, down 7.5% right now. So there you're seeing a big shift. A lot of focus here on how much AI is interfering with the way they do business. We'll be listening into the call.

And again, the CEO on Squawk Box tomorrow. All right, Contessa, thanks, Contessa Brewer. Rivian is out as well. Phil LeBos got those. Phil. Melissa, these are slightly better than expected numbers for Rivian in the fourth quarter. Still, it was a loss for the quarter. The company losing 54 cents a share.

The street was expecting a loss of 68 cents a share, so a smaller than expected loss, with revenue coming in better than expected at $1.29 billion. For the fourth quarter, they had an adjusted, EBIT a loss of $465 million. Compare that with Q4 of 24 when they lost 277 million. What's the difference? A big drop off in terms of EV tax credit sales. That clearly had an impact in the fourth quarter. Free cash flow, negative $1.14 billion. And then there's the guidance for 2026. The company expects to deliver between 62 and 67,000 vehicles. A number of the analysts on the Street, believe 65,000 was what they think the company can deliver this year. Again, the delivery

guidance, 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, and EBIT loss of between $1.8 and $2.1 billion for the year, with CAPEX between $1.95 and $2.05 billion. Lots to discuss with RJ Scorange, CEO of Rivian. We will be talking with him exclusively in a few minutes, not only about the guidance, but the big question that a lot of people have is the R2 still scheduled to go into production in the second quarter, among the many questions for RJ in a few minutes. Guys, back to you. Yep, Phil, look forward to that. Pinterest earnings are out as well. Julia Borson has the numbers, Julia. Pinterest shares plummeting now down about 18% as the company misses on earnings.

67 cents rather than the 69 cents expested revenues of 1.32 billion pretty much in line with the estimate of 1.33 billion. Stock. now down 19%. Company outlook is also weaker than expected. Pinterest guiding to revenue in a range of 951 million to 971 million below the 980 million estimate. Monthly active users, 619 million. That's 6 million more than estimated, with average revenue per user a bit lighter than expected. It was stronger in the U.S., but lighter in Europe than anticipated. Back over to you, Melissa. All right, down 19% on Pinterest. Coinbase earnings are out as well. Kate Rooney's got the numbers, Kate.

Hey, Mel. So it was a miss on revenue for the quarter for Coinbase revenue. Excuse me, $1.7, $8 billion. A bit shy of what the street was looking for. It was down 5% sequentially. Not going to compare EPS here. It was a loss per share, which was a surprise. That's way off from the positive EPS number we have for consensus.

That could be an effect of unrealized losses. They're reporting here from crypto prices, which we know have been volatile and down deeply. They do report Q4 net loss of 667. million dollars, also an unrealized loss from a strategic investment in Circle as well. Transaction revenue also slightly late, 983 million versus about a billion from what the street was looking for. Subscription revenue was also below consensus. Coinbase has been trying to grow into what they're calling the Everything Exchange,

so not just crypto derivatives, equities, prediction markets. In an email, Brian, I'm starting the CEO telling me the Everything Exchange is working. He says they doubled trading volume and crypto market share as well, but stock lower. ahead of the print, but down about 4% after hours, guys. Back to you. All right. Kate, thanks, Kate Rooney. Wow, that was non-slaught of earnings here. Good thing we've got our panel standing by. About a breath. I know, right? Well, you should be out of breath. Yeah, I was, you know. But it's an interesting sort of

pull back a little bit in terms of the themes. The AI disruption theme continues within the earnings releases, Pinterest, Expedia, Airbnb. These are the companies that could really be sort of disrupted by AI. And then you have applied materials with that handy beat and the great guidance with a huge pop in the after-hour session, and that's really being helped by this build-out that we're seeing. And the price action going into the prints and all these companies only accentuated by the move in the after-hours. In other words, the AMAT's move going into these numbers set the bar extremely high. You know, Expedia is a good example of a place where I actually think the comps get better. Travel trends tend to be very strong. It's, you know, roughly 11,

12 times next year, depending on who you're looking at in terms of their outlook. And the view is that first of all, this is the most interesting of the OTAs, so the online travel agents. But again, is their business now suddenly experiencing existential threats? I don't think so. I think this is a case where a lot of people actually really value the partnerships that this company has that are B-to-B partnerships. That's part of the hedge here, but it's clearly what we're hearing. You know, Barb, I get your analogy to the GLP ones and selling off of the food stocks and all the rest of it. I just wonder how these groups that are considered to be in the crosshairs of AI for

disruption win back the benefit of the doubt. It's because it's a tough call, right? I mean, look, most retailers didn't go away after Amazon, but they never really traded at a premium except for the big guys again. And you have this situation right now where investors are like, well, they're going to spend $700 billion this year in AI CAPEX. You know, that better be killing something or else what are we doing here? Exactly. No, and I think that is the question, because the P.E. multiples will definitely stay contracted, I think, in various areas. But, you know, it's like Expedia versus Airbnb. Now, they're actually two very different types in terms of their disintermediation.

Because if you look at Airbnb, they have 5 million hosts who are all individual. They don't have their own websites. That would be very tough for AI to disintermediate. But they're down as well, even though beating their numbers. So I think what's going to happen as time goes on in the next fewks, everybody's going crazy, trying to figure out. And you're going to find the ones that are not as susceptible, like an Airbnb. be versus an Expedia, which is much more susceptible because 70% of their hotels and accommodations are brand name that could be easy to use AI to disintermediate. So I think, but you're right,

Mike, that's the question. We're not going to know for some time, who's really going to be hurt. And that's why I think the earnings coming in, and it looks like fourth quarter earnings are going to be 13%. It's going to be the fifth quarter, excuse me, of double-digit growth. But that could be it over the next few quarters. So we don't know. That's the problem. And that's not that change for well. Yeah, I mean, the impact we don't know, and I think that's the problem. But so when you take a look at software, IGB, for instance, it seems to be holding in at 80. Like it doesn't really go, you know, we've tested that area before. The low, I think, of 78 or so. But we haven't breached that again. I mean, would you go in and say, you know what,

everything is being thrown out here? Or do you think it's just a matter of time before AI really does? Well, in classic diversification theory, yeah, IGV, if I'm going to nibble, I start to nibble on the one that owns, you know, 25. software names. I will say there are software names that continue to make new lows. And IGV has held up today. Today felt like one of those days where I don't need to go buy it. But yes, if I'm investing for the long term for my clients, I'm thinking about a washout in software that we know is going to exist in some way. Today, I think the price action tells us we want to go lower because the broader part of the market that also is tied to a lot of speculation looked like it wanted to give fresh ground. Certainly we saw that in crypto. Certainly we saw that in go. Certainly we saw that in

I'm not ready to buy IGB right now. And also things like when you see the truckers sell off the way they did and transports were so hot. You have a lot of very recent money charging into that. And it's just shaking out a lot of weekends that I think got into these areas that just seemed like we can hide there. You know, and these rotation beneficiaries where you didn't really have a thesis. You just had, well, it's out of the way of danger.

But is your view, Mike, that, so be careful even about industrials and transport? No, obviously industrials, if you actually have the, the conviction and the order books and the earnings are coming in, that's fine. I'm just saying in terms of these smaller sectors that just took on a ton of capital from the mega cap selling off, it just feels as if it was not necessarily kind of high conviction, smart money in there. Right, which I think plays into the rotation question, because I see that money as very short term, because the money is coming out of fear and has to go somewhere. So you're seeing a lot of laggards, the areas that didn't do well.

The sectors last year are now doing better. I think it's short term. All right. Barbara, Tim, thank you. Tim, we'll see you a little bit later on the show. Great to be here. All right. We've got a news alert out of Washington. Emily Wilkins has a story. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, of course, we are following closely exactly what's going to be happened with Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination. As you know, there is Tom Tillis is currently blocking that from going through until the criminal investigation into J. Powell has completed. And yesterday there was the idea floated that, hey, maybe instead of the DOJ, doing this investigation into Powell, it could be something that Congress could do, that the

banking committee could do. But we just had Senator Tillis reaffirmed twice today now that he needs to have this DOJ investigation wrapped up. He's not doing the one-to-one saying, hey, look, if banking wants to investigate these overruns, we totally can. But the important thing is that the criminal investigation, which only the DOJ can do, ends. And until then, he will not be lifting his hold on any federal nominee. Listen to what he just said now on the Senate floor. I will not allow any board member for the Federal Reserve to go through the banking committee for chair or for replacement of expired terms until this matter is settled. I have no problem with us having an investigation like we should with so many other areas of government.

It will likely be out to the Justice Department to decide exactly what the next steps are going to be and whether or not they would want to try to transition this investigation from a criminal one to an oversight one that the banking committee in the Senate could do. But of course, until that time, Kevin Warsh's nomination looks like it's not going to be able to go through. We're also not clear at this point on exactly when the Senate would be looking in to do that, but we know that it will likely take some time for all the paperwork to get together before there's an in-person hearing. Guys? Emily, thanks. Emily Wilkins. Coming up much more on two big sectors, getting

hit hard on fears of AI disruption. Trucking and logistics and commercial real estate. Huge losses in those groups. Seabury and JLL down 20% this week. You're watching closing bell overtime, live from the NASAC market site. Welcome back to overtime, shares of draft kings down sharply in the back of its earnings. Contessa Brewer's got the numbers. Contessa. Yeah, and we've got an earnings beat here. The EPS comes in at a quarter per share. The estimate was 15 cents. You've got revenues of $1.99 billion. That's in with what the street was expecting here, Melissa. But it's really the revenue guidance. That's coming in light at 6.5 to 6.9 billion. The street was expecting 7.31 billion. And EBDA is a beat here, 343 million versus the street's expectation of 269 million.

Monthly unique players, this is coming in pretty light as well, at 4.8 million versus what the street was expecting, 5.26 million. The big question in all of this is, going to be our prediction markets taking a big share away from Draft Kings. Draft Kings, of course, has its own prediction business. We're going to hear on that call whether railbirds and its tie up with crypto.com might be taking some of those profits away as they reinvest in the prediction business as well. But that's really the focus here for investors as we see those shares down 10% after the earnings report. Guys.

Yeah, Contessa, thanks. Contessa Burr, we speaking with Drought King's CEO in a first on CNBC interview later on this hour. Roku earnings also out, Julia Bortston, has those numbers. Julia. Hey, Mike, Roku beating on the top and bottom lines. Earnings of 53 cents per share well ahead of the 28 cent per share estimates. Revenues of $1.39 billion beating estimates of $1.35 billion. You see shares know up over 9%.

The company also guiding to first quarter revenue of $1.2 billion, ahead of estimates of $1.16 billion, and also guiding revenue and also, full year revenue of $5.5.5 billion, and at the $5.34 billion estimated for the full year. Also want to note that we will be doing an interview with the CEO of Roku Anthony Wood tomorrow in the 10 a.m. Eastern hour. Back over to you. Julia, thanks, Julie Borson. Dutch Bros. Those earnings are out. Kate Rogers has the numbers. Kate. Hi, Melissa, and the stock is up. Just under 14% on this report, it was a seven-penny bean on earning 17 cents adjusted, 444 million revenues versus the

425 estimated by analysts. Same store sales up 7.7%. That's a huge beat. Higher than the estimates of 4.4% growth. Ibn, also at 73 million, much better than the 60 million estimated for the quarter. CEO Christine Barone saying, quote, this strong top line performance driven in increases in transactions and a value proposition that clearly hit home with our customers,

an unmistakable indicator of the magnetic strength of the Dutch Bros brand. So this is just another coffee shop seeing transactions growth in addition to Starbucks. So three names now this quarter for keeping track in the restaurant sector, showing traffic growth, Starbucks, McDonald's, and now Dutch Bros. All very different value propositions to guys. Back over to you. For sure. Kate, thank you. Shares of trucking logistics companies like C.H. Robinson, expeditors and RXO falling today on more AI disruption fears with C.H. Robinson posting its worst day since February of 2024. That's all off partially attributed to AI company algorithm holdings, which said its new platform AI, boosted customers freight volumes by

more than 300 percent without an increase in headcount. The company is a penny stock, certainly before today's pop, about a $3 million market cap, was formerly focused on karaoke systems before pivoting to AI freight platform. So, you know, so there's two ways really to weigh this. One is, well, that just seems silly, right? I mean, how could this be really a threat to an entrenched industry, which already, of course, is trying everything they can? to automate all these functions. On the other hand, it's a read of just how skittish people are and how low the conviction is, again, in some of these areas,

and maybe we just have this sort of pent-up anxiety that has to flow through these different sectors. And even if this company, the small company, doesn't actually have the goods, so to speak, it just sort of underscores this notion that there could be that disruption, that somebody could be out there and do this to these well-entrenched truckers. And I do think that the sheer size,

of the investment that's happening and the speed of how these models are improving and they keep passing these tests, it's forcing investors to just think big in terms of potential impact. I mean, people are talking about skyscrapers emptying out and massive effects on employment and all the rest of it, but I don't know if we have to go there and just say, well, there's a lot of these kind of like, you know, these sort of profit streams that seems like they've been undisturbed for a really long time that could be ripe. Yeah, yeah. Speaking of which commercial real estate, that's what we're talking about, where the AI disruption sell-off continues to ravage the sector.

A second straight day of punishing losses. Diana Oleg takes us inside the numbers. Diana. Melissa, you're right. The route continued today. CBRE, JLL and Cushman and Wakefield, all down around 20% in the last two days. Oppenheimer noted there have only been two periods of time

where these stocks have fallen more that was COVID and the global financial crisis. CBRE CEO Bob Solentic addressed AI on the company earnings call this morning, saying about the brokerage side, we've become quite confident that that business really is driven by this strategic creative thinking that our brokers do, and we think that's going to continue to be the case.

But he added that they are using AI to get more data to their brokers more cost-effectively. But what we are seeing today is exactly what Starwood Capital Chairman and CEO Barry Sternlich warned of on the Property Play podcast just a few months ago. That is terrifying to me. I mean, like, I'm not so complacent.

And I look at through my companies and how we spend money and what I can do with AI agents that I do with humans today. And it's terrifying for the people. I mean, I'm... Do you expect to lose people? I think we have to let people go. Now for more from Sternlicht and other CEOs talking AI,

check out the property play video podcast, CNBC.com, forward slash property play. Back to you guys. All right, Diana, thank you. So can these names really withstand the impact from AI or is the market's reaction valid? Joining us now is Joe Dixstein from Jeffries. So Joe, I mean, I guess that we,

Do we have to stress test these business models and try to figure out exactly, you know, what they can do in response, or is this even a threat at all? No, I think it's important to focus on the fact that, you know, we're dealing with very complex commercial real estate transactions. We are relying on, you know, multiple levels of debt and complex deal structures. And these are things that CBRE and JLL. They bring, you know, deep relationships in the industries. They bring proprietary data.

In the end of the day, if a large occupier or a large investor in real estate wants to go at a large transaction on their own, they risk mispricing that asset or having the deal fall through. And being able to rely on a CBRE or JLL to kind of provide that efficient execution on a larger scale, I think that is something that can't be replaced simply with an agent. is there at least the worry of fee compression or extra scrutiny on exactly how much value is being added by the brokers here? I'm just wondering if there's any kind of rational basis to think that either A, the customers don't love having to pay them or B, that somebody could replicate it relatively easily. Yeah, I think replicating it relatively easily would be difficult. there is a meaningful scale both in the amount of brokers that work for these companies and the data that they provide and access. That's not something that you can just build from scratch. In terms of fee compression, I guess the flip side would be, you know, AI is helping automate certain processes internally and making those brokers more efficient.

And that would lead to more deal volume to kind of offset that fee compression. There's also the other aspect, Joe, that is AI will make workforces smaller because you need fewer people. And so therefore, that will then diminish the demand for commercial real estate in general. I mean, how do you sort of, how do you factor that into the model? If you don't think these other things can be disrupted because of the deep data, because of the relationships, et cetera, how about just smaller workforces because of AI? Yeah, I mean, we have seen in the last couple of years the leasing recovery is largely driven by larger, more premium office leases competing for the best talent.

So I think the notion that there will be no workers is difficult to kind of argue. Instead, I think we might see perhaps higher quality spaces, larger costs for those leases, that kind of offset it. And I also want to point out that CBRE does have a pretty extensive data center business as well. And so if we're going to be replacing offices with data centers, CBRE also has a strong position there. So it's hedged. All right, Joe, great to speak with you. Thank you. You know, as much as it seems like a really rash one day down draft in these stocks,

both Jones, Lange, LaSalle, and CBRE just went down to their five-year average P.E. So in other words, a lot of the market has already been kind of elevated and maybe we're just kind of building it a little more of a margin of safety. That's a good point. Well, Amazon falling for the eighth straight session today. It hasn't had a longer losing streak in 20 years. It's now down 17% in February and the worst performer of the Mag 7. Apple, on the other hand, the only Mag 7 name in the green for the month,

despite its 5% drop today, we'll dive into why investors are getting skittish on this name. And as we head to break, take a look at some of the utility names today. The ETF, XLU, now on pace for its third weekly gain in a row. It's best week since November of 2023. Excellent American Water, PG&E and Amaran among today's leaders. Welcome back to Closing Bell overtime, live from the NASAC market site. A big slide for the broader averages today. The Dow down 669 points.

The NASAC down 2%. We also saw a big drop in Treasury yields. The tenure down eight basis points, and the drop coincided with a big drop in existing home sales, the largest monthly decline in nearly four years. We also saw selling commodities, oil, down nearly 3 percent, similar for gold, silver meantime, down 10 percent. Well, Apple shares closing near-session lows and having their worst, biggest percentage decline since last April. Steve Kovac looks at what is driving the stock lower, so a 5 percent drop today, Steve, although month to date before today, Apple was outperforming the NASDAQ 100 by like seven percentage points.

Yeah, that's exactly right. And besides the overall tech sell-off, Mike, there are two headlines recently that kind of caught my attention on Apple. So yesterday around this time, we got that Bloomberg report that that big AI update to Siri that incorporates the Google Gemini technology, that has been internally pushed back. We were expecting it to launch in just a few weeks' time. Now, according to Bloomberg, it's not going to come out until May. And even then, it's not going to be all the features. necessarily that Apple originally promised nearly two years ago. So that is causing some doubt and

worry around Apple's ability to get this out the door, though I will say Apple says they will do it as promised by the end of this year. And then there's one other thing, this FTC letter from FTC chair, Andrew Ferguson, to Apple CEO Tim Cook alleging that Apple news, the app that's on all your Apple devices has a liberal bias and filters up liberal news and puts behind a wall, so to speak, conservative viewpoints. There's an FTC letter out to that, no response from Apple, but it is perhaps another indication the White House isn't done antagonizing this company, Mike. And then, of course, we had the Cisco effect.

I mean, Cisco talking about the higher cost of memory, and that would squarely impact Apple, although they didn't really talk about that in that latest quarter. That call was the memory call, Melissa, that's all analysts wanted to know. And the line from Apple right now is it's not going to affect this. the near turn and the current March quarter that we're in. But yes, down the line, there is concerns about memory. I know some on the street have been speculating that could lead to price increases for the iPhone. Maybe that's possible or just margin compression at the same time.

I will note, this is Tim Cook's bread and butter. He's known for being a supply chain wizard. He's the best person, best equipped to handle whatever comes their way with those memory prices. Yeah, you know, it's interesting, Steve. The stock gets down to a pretty interesting spot here. The low for the day was 260. That was basically the high from late 2024. So who knows, maybe Apple was getting credit for not being one of those companies,

spending tens of billion dollars for Cappex. And maybe people were kind of trying to goose the stock as a defensive play. And we've lost a little bit of that, I guess. Yeah, and at the end of 2024 and into 2025, there was all that anticipation, that AI Siri version that I was just telling you about was going to launch. And it was going to spur that big upgrade of iPhones. and the opposite happened.

It didn't launch, and there was no upgrade. And then we learned in the iPhone 17th cycle, just this last quarter, that it's a huge hit without AI. So maybe they don't necessarily need it to be successful. Also on that earnings call, Tim Cook, was asked, how are you guys going to monetize AI, and he didn't have a real answer?

I mean, the answer is to sell more iPhones, and they're doing that without AI right now. And pay Google for it, yeah. Exactly. Steve, thanks. Steve, go back. Up next, an exclusive. of interview with Rivian CEO and the company's results in new fears about the future of the

EV industry. And take a look at some of the names hitting all-time highs today. McDonald's, Coke, Philip Morris, Johnson Johnson, and Walmart. We'll have much more on Walmart straight ahead, and why it might be the ultimate safety play against AI disruption. Over time is back right after this. Draft King shares falling after hours on the back of the company's results. Ahead, the CEO joins us to break down the company's earnings and the increase in competition from prediction markets. It is a first on CNBC interview. Rosie Bell is back after this.

Welcome back. Rivian chairs, seeing a big move higher in the after our session after reporting results moments ago. Phil LeBeau has now the CEO of Rivian, R.J. Scring, for his first comments before the call. Phil.

Thank you, Melissa, RJ. Good to be here in Irvine. Let's start, first off. Fourth quarter, you lose money again. You're expecting to lose anywhere between 1.8 and 2.1 this year. When does this company get to sustain profitability? Well, Q4 for us was a really important quarter.

This is the first quarter where we've really achieved positive gross margin on a cash basis. So we've achieved about $2,000 a profit per vehicle on a cash basis. And the delta between the CAC basis and GAP basis is really primarily depreciation. And so we have $11,000 of depreciation per unit. And that depreciation is going to be amortized over a lot more units as we start to ramp R2. So R2 is a really key program for us. It makes R1 more profitable and of course it adds volume to the business. to the business. We'll talk about sustained profitability in a bit. Let's talk about your guidance.

62 to 67,000 vehicles delivered this year. Is the R2 the bulk of those deliveries or just a portion of those? And when do you begin deliveries? We start producing and delivering customer vehicles in the second quarter this year. And we ramp through the course of the year. When we look at the overall line, really think about Q4 and that exit rate, what we'll be looking it in terms of production across two shifts, starting to represent what we'll begin to see in 2027. This year, of course, we'll continue to producing the R1, our commercial van, and by the end of 2027, R2 will start to really be the majority of the volume of the business. Price point, $45,000. You said that, it'll start there. Can you keep it at $45,000?

And when do you start selling that $45,000 vehicle? Is it right away? Yeah, the portfolio products we have, of course, we're starting at $45, we've talked about that a lot, but we're launching with a dual motor performance package with our largest battery pack and a premium interior. And we spent a lot of time thinking about what are the different combinations of vehicles we want to offer. So on March 12th, we're going to be unveiling the different vehicles across the portfolio. But just to be clear here, because people have focused on that 45,000 point. Will the first vehicles you deliver price at 45 or will they price at a higher price point? What will that be?

The launch configuration will be at a higher price point, but the 45 will be coming in shortly thereafter. I know it's a tough day, tight day. A lot of earnings. R.J. Scourange. Glad we could talk to you before the earnings call with analysts. Guys, Mike, we'll send it back to you. All right, Phil, thanks so much, and RJ's wealth, of course. Draft King's shares are in decline. They're down 15% after reporting its results. We will hear from the CEO in a first on CNBC interview when overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. Draft King's earnings results crossing the tape earlier this hour. The company reported a beat on the top and bottom lines. but came in light on revenue guidance for the full fiscal year to come. The stock down now about 15%. Joining us now to discuss in a first on CNBC interview, the CEO of Draft Kings, Jason Robbins.

Jason, great to have you. Just talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the business for the coming year and what accounts for the softer revenue guidance. Well, we had a great Q4 outperformed on everything. We really didn't have overall, though, from a versus guidance. perspective, the best year in 2025, we missed a couple times. So I think you saw us be appropriately disciplined and cautious with our guide this year. And, you know, sometimes you kind of can't have it either way. Either you come out with an aggressive guy, which is tougher to hit or beat,

or you come out with a little bit more of a cautious guide and people don't like it. So, you know, one way or another, though, we're just going to continue to execute and produce results. And I think the last few years shows that we have consistently grown our revenue, consistently grow nonprofits. Is anything in terms of user activity causing you, though, to be a little more conservative? I mean, whether it is a proliferation of prediction markets everywhere or whatever you have to do to sort of counter some of that competition? You know, I think us being a little more conservative really has more to do with having

gotten a little ahead of ourselves and missing last year. Obviously, there's those narratives out there, and, you know, anything at any point in time could certainly put pressure on your numbers. But right now we're not seeing that in the business. We're seeing really strong performance from a cohort perspective. Our retention numbers look amazing. Customer acquisitions slowed down a little bit, but it was off of an absolutely record year in 2024. So everything looks pretty healthy right now, and we continue to see rising LTV, growing revenue and growing profits.

At the same time, monthly unique players, payers, has gone, was short of consensus by almost a half a million, Jason. Can you walk us through what was behind that? and whether or not you are seeing sort of even just the marginal better go to the predictions markets because that's the major concern of the financial markets, the impact of predictions on betting. I understand that. And, you know, we put some materials out that show it's actually really, really low overlap. Predictions is really misunderstood.

It is a largely incremental opportunity. This is a tam grower for us. And I think one of the things that's actually confounded us is we're super, excited about it. It's probably one of the best developments, maybe the best development that's happened to us since the overturn of PASPA almost a decade ago at this point. And somehow the markets think it's bad for us. But that's okay. That just creates dislocation in the price, and we'll have to go out there and prove it. But we're pretty excited about the prediction market's opportunity. And everything we're seeing in the data suggests that this is a largely

incremental tam. And a huge incremental tam at that. I mean, it opens up all the other states that we don't have online sports betting in is addressable for us. So we're really excited about it. But weren't you and other sports betting players against the idea that prediction markets could launch in states that don't have legal sports betting? Oh, no. No, I mean, maybe some. I don't want to speak for others. Certainly not in our case. We have a predictions product. We launched it. It's very recent. We launched it in December. So still nascent, but we saw huge growth in the Super Bowl. We had a massive increase in the Super Bowl of 3X, what our prior day record had been, and acquired a ton of customers onto it.

So, I mean, we're just getting started there. Our product was very underdeveloped, and we added a bunch of things for the Super Bowl, and we have a lot more coming up for March Madness, World Cup, and then certainly throughout the summer and going into next NFL season. So as much activity as we're seeing on Cal Shee and Polymarkets and some of the other products out there, Jason, And those are not the same customers. Those are other people making other bets. And you're still seeing the same volumes on your platform.

It's not being impacted at all. Well, really what it comes down. 90% of the activity on predictions markets is sports betting. Yeah, really what it comes down to is there are a number of large states, including California, Texas, Florida, that we do not operate an online sports betting product in. And so that is the vast majority of volume, where the vast majority of volume on these prediction markets is coming from. It's less so from the states that have sports betting, which makes sense because people have access to a better product there. But I think for us, it really feels like a large incremental opportunity from that standpoint.

It's almost as if the rest of the country just all of a sudden opened up for OSB, even though it's not exactly the same as online sports betting. It's something that we feel we can really address a significant amount of consumer demand with. So it's pretty exciting moment for us, and we view it as largely incremental. I also think that people don't really look at our track. record. Nobody thought we were doing fantasy sports that we would be able to come in and develop one of the leading sports betting products and we have. We have a great track record. We have so much infrastructure here from pricing models to all kinds of data on customer

behavior to a great brand, a marketing footprint. So we see no reason that even if predictions you know, ended up being something that wasn't as incremental as we thought that we couldn't get a very significant share there too. But at this point we think it is almost entirely an incremental tam and a very large one at that. Jason, great to speak with you. Thank you. Thanks for having me. Jason Robbins. Up next, Tim Seamer will tell us how he is trading Walmart, which is one of the big winners on Wall Street today. Over time, be right back. A very busy hour of earnings. Applied materials, a big gainer after beating on earnings

and revenue guidance. Guidance there better than expected on all counts as well. Maple Bear, better known as Instacart Jumping, despite an earnings mess, it did beat on revenue and issue a strong guidance. Pinterest sinking after missing on earnings and revenue. Coinbase, also missing on revenue. That stock actually up a little bit after a rough run. And we are not comparing the Coinbase bottom line net loss to the estimate. All right, let's bring back Seymour asset management, CIO and CNBC contributor and Fast Money Trader. Tim Seymour.

We brought you on specifically for Walmart. But looking ahead to tomorrow, since we're looking ahead at this point, do you think the sell-off continues? We were just talking about, for instance, the fact sets of the world's S&P Global. It's a little bit of a bounce. And then bounced. Yeah, and even the Coinbase Actions is interesting for a moment. But I still think that there is leverage in this market that wants to come out. I still think there are a lot of investors that feel very cautious.

I think the numbers we're getting have been fantastic. Everybody knows what the beat is. Everybody knows what the bar was going into this earning season. I'm not sure we've worked through this, hey, are these companies going to be here tomorrow, which the companies we all mentioned will absolutely be here tomorrow. Yeah. So Walmart gone vertical? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I, as someone that's been along Walmart a long time, I'm really comfortable

with what's going on there. I hate 43 times, even if they hit consensus numbers on 27. The good news is gross margins getting higher as membership and advertising are part of the story here. The question always to me, and the T& Timbo, this is for fast money viewers, this is my acronym, not just me calling out third personing myself, is that Target Walmart spread now is probably 25 handles. in terms of PE.

And I understand it's apples and oranges in terms of the execution. But I think Walmart, look, people want value. I don't care who you are and they continue to shop for it. And I think that's the story. U.S. COPS at 4.5%? Great stuff.

Yeah. I keep saying, too, it's weird that Amazon, like people hate Amazon's e-commerce business. Now I don't want to pay up for it, but Walmart trades here at 43. Tim, good to see you. Thank you. Great to be here.

Tim, see more. Hey, that's going to do it for overtime on this Thursday. Yep. Olympic curling begins right now.