Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 3/11/26

Episode Date: March 11, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell's bringing an end to the trading day at the NYC, Costa Mare. Bulkers ringing the bell, and at the NASDAQ, Plexis, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime. We're live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Melissa Lee along with Mike Santoli. Another down day for stocks, a down down 300 points, smaller losses for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ, though, turning positive, trying to hold on to some gains here. Once again, stocks taking their cue from oil, which did rise more than 5% on the day.

Our reporters are all over the action. Christina, on the market moves. PIPA watching oil and Rick in Chicago on bonds as yields move a bit higher. Mostly flattish action, Melissa, in the broader indexes, although, you know, a little bit of give and take in there. I mean, the bank stocks, the big bank index almost breaks its 200-day average. I mean, maybe you don't love that. But it has narrowed back out in a sense, right? The broadening market has become a more narrow market, things like Oracle and today Tesla actually managing to lend some support.

And I guess it's more a matter of everybody is saying duration of the crisis is going to be the swing factor. And they're saying it's limited. But nobody quite knows how to translate that into today's action, today's kind of macro implications. And if that were really the belief in the markets that it was going to be a limited sort of short-term excursion, as President Trump like to put it, then the release from strategic reserves or from around the world by the IEA should have provided that bridge for the markets to believe that crude oil would be. lower and stay lower. And instead we had that strange bounce. So there's sort of this lurking sort of notion that we could be in for something much bigger, which nobody is positioned for, really. Not seemingly positioned for it. The market definitely does not want to sort of leap to any one

particular conclusion. I almost think we are benefiting from the fact that we've been so flat and range bound for so long. The S&P 500 got to today's level in early October. It's five months, kind of just spinning its wheels around this level with a lot of movement underneath. And so Maybe that means, you know, we already were in wait-and-C mode. And now, but again, the clock ticks. We don't really know how long we can wait for resolution. Exactly. Let's get to Christina Parsneville.

She's got more on today's market action. Hey, Christina. Hi, guys. Well, the Dow closed lower for the second straight day is geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, just like you guys talked about, weight on sentiment. New data showed U.S. inflation holding steady in February. It was a mixed bag, though, for big tech with three Mag 7 names closing in the red. But Tesla did outperform the group about 2% higher after its China.

made EV sales jumped 91% in February, though that surge comes off a low base from a year ago. Elsewhere, Oracle surging roughly 9% after a strong third quarter with management, also reassuring analysts the company won't take on additional debt beyond what was already announced this year. NVIDIA's Midas' touch struck again, this time landing on cloud company Nebius, which jump roughly 16% today after Nvidia said it would invest $2 billion in the company. Nebius will deploy more than 5 gigawatts of data center capacity by the end of 2030. The news lifting other names in the space, including Corweave and Iran as well. On the downside, Campbell's hitting lows not seen since 2003 after missing on earnings revenue, full year guidance,

with its snack business down about 6%. Soup sales sliding 4%, specifically because lower income consumers did pull back. Last but not at least, Solar Edge shares closing about 5% lower today after they announced its CFO will be leaving in June, guys. Christina, thank you. Let's get more on the latest moves in oil and some more interesting comments from the administration. Pippa Stevens covering that for us. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Mike. So Brent, closing about $92 per barrel, even after the IEA announced to release a 400 million barrels across its 32 member countries, the largest on record. And the IEA not yet giving a timeline for when these barrels will hit the market.

The flow rate or how fast the oil can get out of reserves is what's key. J.P. Morgan estimates a daily flow of just 1.2 million barrels. meaning it won't do a lot to offset how much is being lost daily in the Gulf. Now, Interior Secretary Doug Bergam telling CNBC's power lunch that U.S. participation isn't a done deal. What you're hearing out of the IEA today is reasonable on their part, but clearly whether the U.S. participates is up to President Trump. He'll make the final decision on that.

Rapid-Den Energy's Bob McNally telling me the president can decline or chip in a contribution and that the piecemeal process for this release has been very unusual. Now, they do expect a release to eventually be likely, but not necessarily imminent. Now, the price action indicating some of this might have already been priced in, but also growing expectations that this conflict will last longer, perhaps, than initially thought, guys. And, of course, this is going to provide some relief, PIPA, but at the same time, there's no strategic reserve for natural gas, and that's a real pain point for a lot of countries. I think that might ultimately end up being the bigger story here because Qatar is 20% of global LNG supply and Rass LaFan is offline.

It has never been fully taken offline before. Sure, maybe a train is down for maintenance every few years, but the entire complex has never been taken offline. And think about what it will take to get it back up. I mean, you think about even the cooling temperature, it has to be minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit, and the ambient temperature has now risen. So even things like that will just take so much longer to bring it back. And also Alex Muntin from Rappaden Energy told me that it is essentially a sitting duck. There is no way to fully protect it.

And the Iranian attack at the start of this conflict on the facility might have just been a warning shot. If they really wanted to take it out, that is certainly a possibility. And as you said, Melissa, there is no strategic reserve for gas. And so that could be ultimately the larger disruption here. Pippa, thank you. Pippa Stevens. Let's get to the bond market now as yields move higher. The CPI report out this morning. But, of course, oil prices contributing to inflation expectations as well.

Rick Santelli's got more, Rick. Yes, whether it was CPI, although there was really very little new information regarding trying to handicap inflation in this report. But, of course, there's a bit of a crowding out factor as all these corporate issuance is like Amazon, associate with AI, they find juicier yields. Investors seem to be moving in that direction. And, of course, since the conflict started, rates have gone up, especially on the long end. Let's look at twos and tens today. And you can see right in the middle of the chart is where today started.

They were moving higher before CPI and they were moving higher afterwards. But maybe the biggest story continues to be outside of Japan. Japan on the 27th, the day before the conflict began, their yields aren't much different. But if you look at what's going on in the UK, what's going on in the Eurozone and U.S., a big difference. Let's look at the U.S. Highest yield closed right now on a 10 since Feb 26. We're yielding, obviously, around 422. If you look at what's going on in the U.K., 468 yield, that's the highest yield close since October of 25,

and they really pop today, double digits. And finally, the Boon, the Boon has the lowest yield, still under 3%. Its yield today closing at the highest level since mid-October of 23. That's why the right side of that chart doesn't look like the other two, because on the Friday before the conflict, the Euro markets were already preceding higher and yield. They're holding, but they're not as aggressive because on the 27th, the Americans and the UK, they hit a real low. We had our low close for the entire move the day before the conflict began. Mike, back to you. All right, Rick, important context. Thank you very much.

Well, let's dive deeper in the markets, higher oil prices, holding back the major averages today as the war in Iran continues to fuel uncertainty among investors. Our next guest says we should continue to expect violent at times rotations because of what she calls short attention span money in part. Joining us now is Schwab Center for Financial Services, chief investment strategist Lizanne Sanders. Lizanne, welcome. Always good to see you.

Hi, Mike. You too. Thanks for having me. Of course. So these rotations that we keep talking about, right, you have this unusually kind of sideways S&P 500, lots of dramatic moves underneath. Are there messages that you're drawing from that activity

that we should really keep in mind right now? Well, let's just put some numbers on it, Mike. you've had limited drawdowns at the index level. Maximum drawdown for the S&P is only 3% at the index level. It's on a year-to-date basis. It's only 6% for the NASDAQ. But under the surface, there has been more violent. So the average member has had a max drawdown in the S&P of 14%. And for the NASDAQ, it's negative 27%. So you've had these kind of micro-level bear markets that have just happened via this process of rotation. Some of it's obviously how quickly the data changes, narratives can change, also positioning. I think there's a lot of short-term money that is looking for both

opportunity and where things get stretched, both on the long side and the short side. And that's why these moves can happen so swiftly, especially if there is some sort of news item that triggers a narrative change. And it's hard to see an environment where we get out of that kind of pattern for the market. And I guess in one sense, the way to describe what you're saying is it is a market struggling for the next narrative thrust. And I wonder if this idea of at least directionally stagflationary inputs or holding the markets in check has what's gone on this year really altered the assumptions about how the economy was going to be because it was all about, you know, run it hot, the consumers should have tailwinds, financials were leading, they no longer are.

So it's become a little bit of a scramble. It is. And I think the inflation story is an incredibly important one. I don't think we're looking necessarily at a setup akin to the 1970s, and that era's version of stagflation, which the economics side of that term back then referenced a pretty rapidly rising unemployment rate, which we don't have at this point. So now we think of stagplation is more of a generic, a slowdown and growth and a pickup of inflation. But it does put the Fed in a pickle. And that's why you're seeing rate cut expectations get pushed further out into the year and even before the eruption of the war in Iran, what you had been seeing as a much more diversity in terms of perspective on the part of the members of the FOMC, you know, more frequent

dissents, greater dispersion in terms of things like the dots plot and summary of economic projections, just a wider array of views being expressed when Fed speakers are out there. That's a good thing from the perspective of concerns about threats to Fed independence, but it is reflective of this very unique period of time where inflation volatility in the Fed's reaction function is much more in sharper focus than it's been in years past. In terms of the short attention span, money, Lizanne, I'm just curious if that's what you're seeing on the Charles Schwall platform among retail investors. I know that's not necessarily your bailiwick, but do you get the sense that investors are afraid that they're going to miss

that rip higher? Because if they're short-term money seizing the opportunity, there might be this fear. They're going to miss out. on this rip-waring rally if something gets resolved, and that could come any day now. So here's the distinction that I would make. I try as much as possible to remind people that there is a distinction between, say, retail traders, that cohort born out of the pandemic, they skew younger, they skew mail, they gave rise to the meme stock craze and things like, you know, the betting markets. That's kind of the short attention span money. But, you know, the likes of the Citadel's that tracks this kind of flow data on a more regular basis than we do at Schwab

suggests that that money can represent at least 25% of trading volume on a daily basis, if not more, on some of the more volatile days. And then you bring in some of the shorter-term speculators in the institutional world and the CTAs. And that's the cohort I'm talking about. We find that our longer-term individual investors do understand the benefit in this environment of relying on those more tried and true disciplines like diversification across and within asset classes. And that is certainly an easier sell to, if anything, lengthen time horizon,

rely on those traditional disciplines, including more frequent rebalancing, perhaps it's portfolio driven. So I think it will continue to be that differentiation between the individual investor that takes a longer-term approach and that shorter-term trader that has a little bit more of a gambling mentality. And Lizanne, I wonder if, you know, we can anchor on some of the slower moving fundamentals like earnings. There's a way of reading how the market has gone in the last, you know, 11 months and say, you had a six-month 40% rip off of a very, very climactic low last April into early October. And we spent five months going sideways, kind of digesting that move, having earnings catch up. Evaluations have clearly gotten moderated. I mean, maybe that's a glass half-full

way of thinking about it, but is that the way it would appear? No, I think you should take a glass half-full approach to thinking about that. It does suggest that the broadening out has a fundamental underpinning to it, that in an environment of lower correlations and higher dispersion, we are seeing a reconnection between fundamentals and prices. You're seeing it within asset classes, too. In fact, an index like the Russell 2000, last year, if you broke out the index into the profitable cohort and the non-profitable cohort, the non-profitable stocks had double the performance of the profitable stocks, 20% for the non-profitable, 10% for the profitable. That is reversed this year, and it's been the profitable stocks that are outperforming. So I do think there is more of a

focus on fundamentals, be it trajectory of earnings, stability of earnings and profit margins, valuation. And one of the ways we can correct some of the valuation excess that existed last year, maybe some of the technical and sentiment problems is via a process of rotation. I think every investor would probably choose a rotational corrective phase as opposed to say in the case of the NASDAQ, you know, the bottom falling out all at once at the index level to the tune of 27%. So I think it's appropriate to take a glass half full look at this. Lizanne, thank you. Always good to see you. Lizanne Saunders. Good to see you too. Thank you.

Kevin Warsh making his case on Capitol Hill today to become the next Fed chairman, but continuing to find resistance from some key lawmakers. Emily Wilkins has got the details on this. Emily. Hey, Melissa. Well, yes, Kevin Warch is indeed making the rounds for senators on Capitol Hill today. He's right now meeting with Senator Kevin Kramer on the banking committee. Earlier today, he met with Senator Jim Banks. And of course, yesterday he met with Senator Tom Tillis, a senator who has said that he is going to be holding up Warsh's and any other

Fed's nominees until that federal criminal investigation into Jay Powell is over. And I got the chance to catch up with Senator Tellis today. And he told me he was very impressed with what he heard from war. She was very optimistic, said that he really liked what he heard on transparency and his outlook for the Fed. But Tellis said that the hold was still going to be in place until that criminal investigation was over. And he said that is really going to be on the Justice Department to do. He told me that I'm not going to try to help them out of a box canyon. There's only one way out of a box canyon. It's admitting that you made a mistake.

Tullis said that at this point, the investigation was absurd. It was obviously based on something that Powell said in the banking committee, and you have now had the chair and numerous members of the banking committee say they do not think that Powell committed a crime. At the same point, Tullis said he does hope to be able to vote for Warsh if this investigation is ended and that he can get them into place in the Fed by May. We also know that Warsh is going to be meeting with Democrats as well. Now, there's no hearing date yet exactly for when Warsh is going to sit in front of the committee, but obviously they do have some time before that vacancy comes open on the Fed.

Guys? Emily, is there anything coming out of Justice Department or the U.S. attorney for D.C. where the investigation sits to suggest that they're kind of rethinking this at all? You know, I've asked a couple lawmakers today if they've heard anything about a potential way to sort of go through this impasse. We know that we've had a couple conversations with lawmakers who have said, look, we're trying to look into it. But a lot of them really say that this is going to be with the DOJ. And it's just not clear at this point if the DOJ is going to be able to do anything to either end this investigation or find some other off ramp for it. I know it was just talked about for the committee taking over the investigation, but that idea seems to have lost momentum at this point.

Emily, thank you. Emily Wilkins. Shares of Nike have lost more than 60% of their value over the past five years. Over that time, many have tried and failed to call the bottom. Up next, we'll talk to an intrepid analyst who says, now the worst made behind it. You're watching Closing Bell Overtime Live from the NASDAQ market site. Welcome back. The top two stocks in the S&P 500 today are the now familiar fertilizer name, CF Industries and Mosaic. The Strait of Ormuz is a key passageway for fertilizer.

to oil. CF, especially seeing a huge gain since the war started. It is up 20% in March and closing at a record high. Well, Nike shares have had a rough 12 months down about 25% versus a 21% gain for the S&B 500. Investors are still waiting for proof that the company's pushed to return to, quote, premium brand is finally starting to pay off. But our next guest is upgrading the stock to a buy, calling it an unconventional upgrade into peak skepticism. She raises her price target at $73. Let's bring in Adrian Yee. She's the barcour. senior retail analyst. Adrian, great to have you with us. Thanks for having me. You do acknowledge that there's a lot of downside risk to consensus estimates still, and yet now is the time to do this

upgrade. Yeah, you know, a lot of times what we're looking for is kind of a change in the fundamental underpinning of the margins. So like you said, kind of at the outset, the last time that we were at these levels for the stock was about a decade ago. And a decade ago, the company was $32 billion doing 14% margins. Today, it's doing $46 billion at a 6.5% margin. This is a grossly under-earning asset right now. And we believe that even though we think that the consensus estimates for FY27 and FY28 are about 10, maybe 15% too high, the valuation multiple has now contracted, and it's expecting, right, the buy side expects that those numbers are going to come down, whether it's this quarter or on their June call for their fourth quarter when they have to get.

FY27 guidance, we're much more comfortable with numbers that should be 10 to 15% lower. So if we look at kind of the downside at $50, the upside of $73 on the way to higher numbers, we think over a longer-term horizon, this is a great place to accumulate tactically and nibble, right, in the low $50 range. What do you like in the pipeline that you're seeing in Nike? The problem has been innovation, not getting the right product out. They made some progress in the last earnings call, but what specifically is coming down the pike that you like and are optimistic about.

Yeah. So where they put their efforts in R&D, right? So they started kind of reengaging in R&D in May of 2022. So this has been a three or four year process. Even before Elliott Hill got there, they were working on innovation. And it was to reclaim their position in the run category. Hoka and On had this new form factor, this thick sole shoe, right, this running shoe. And Nike really was nowhere with theirs until they came out in January 25 with their

PEG 41, their Pegasus Premium, their Vomero 18, and they have successfully reclaimed that run space. In the U.S. market, they're up strong double digits in the run category in all channels. Globally, they're up double digits in all channels and all geographies. That says that when they do put their money and their innovation dollars where they say they will, they come out on the other side of this with some results. So that's really kind of the main piece of what we're seeing today. On a longer term horizon, we just saw the relaunch of all conditions gear, which is an outdoor performance brand that they just relaunched in February. We were in Europe. We saw the new flagship stores, the Innovation Center in Paris.

And when you walk into the store, you might not even think that you were in a Nike store, right? It leads with that kind of performance outdoor aspect. That's where the secular growth in the spaces. When you go to the women's floor, you lead with Nike skims. So I think even though those are single digit or not even contributing to revenues, it's telling you that the management knows where the conversation is in this day and age, and they're going to where the secular growth trends are. That's what we like and what we're seeing at the store level. Adrian, you mentioned the stock is back to where it was 10 years ago. I mean, net income and earnings are literally also there, right? We're talking about 2015 and 2016 levels of earnings for this fiscal year. And next, so what are the inputs to do. getting to the higher margins that it would have enjoyed back then. Back then, the China Bonanza was a bit ahead of it. Obviously, didn't have tariffs to this degree. So what's the path

to higher margins? Yeah, I love that question. You know, one of the things that we sort of underpin before we do this quote unquote valuation, you know, risk reward call, we would never have done this had we not seen sales dollar growth or the sales dollars growing faster than inventory dollars, right? So that spread is very important insofar as it says that on the ink level, at the Nike ink level, we do have kind of clean inventory. And more so, much more importantly, is, again, the sector and the segment, which is 42% is North America. That is the sector that they reset last February and May. They reset. This specifically was a North American reset of the market. That inventory got clean. Sales grew faster than inventory two quarters ago.

The last quarter, their sales were going a thousand basis points, right? 10% faster than inventory. There's a narrative out there that talks about them channel stuffing in North America again, right? Because wholesale was up 24% last quarter. If you have sales growing faster, 10 points faster than inventory, you're not channel stuffing. They had talked about shipping product earlier. And when you have new product in the marketplace, your retail partner wants to sell it and test it and have a longer duration of having, it in the marketplace. That's all that was happening. It is not channel stuffing.

Adrian, persuasive call. We'll see how it goes. Really appreciate it. Thank you very much. Adrian Ye of Barclays. Thank you. International markets have been a hot trade so far this year, but the past week and a half may be causing a rethink up next. We'll take a look at some of this year's hot trades, which could be reversing. Uber shares moving higher today after the company agreed to partner with Amazon, Amazon Zooks, Robo Taxis, will begin to do begin to deploy through the Uber apps starting this summer in Las Vegas and continuing in Los Angeles next year.

But even with today's gain, Uber is still down about 10 percent so far this year. And that's not the only trade that seems to be reversing. Mike's taking a look at a few turnarounds in formerly hot trades. Yeah. So the first two months of this year, Melissa, we kept talking about it was the fastest start to a year for non-U.S. Markets relative to the U.S. That's the ACWX. That's all equity markets outside of the U.S.

Look at the spread we had here just at the end of February. that has now come in. You've converged back toward maybe a more normal relationship, only about a three and a half percentage point spread. Similarly, the equal-weighted S&P, that whole broadening trade, everybody was celebrating, everybody hoped for it. It really got pretty extreme relative to the NASDAQ 100, which is basically a MAG-7-ish type thing. That's how wide the spread was. It is now narrowback. You could also look at Korea versus Brazil. You could look at semis versus software. You could look at Staples versus, you know, healthcare. So the question is, are we just seeing an unwind of those trades that got extended?

Is this the market kind of rebalancing back to some kind of equal footing? Or what? I do think it helps explain, though, how you've kind of just been able to take some of the froth out of certain areas of the market as everybody waits and sees to whether we have to react in a bigger way market-wide to what's happening in Iran. And more specifically, when it comes to the EM trade, it's the froth specifically coming out of South Korea, out of Taiwan because of the AI trade. But at the same time, the rest of emerging markets, you know, there was some concern about the impact of the Iran war, but a lot of the emerging markets, X Asia, actually benefit from the situation here in terms of rising oil prices. No, there's no doubt about it. The issue is if you own the EEM, which is the index-based ETF for emerging markets, it's like more than half China, Taiwan, Korea.

Right. So it's sort of one of those things where you have to figure out how you want to play different parts of emerging markets. Time now for our CNBC News Update with Julia Borson. Thanks. The Trump administration announced a new effort today to initiate legal guardianships for homeless veterans to enable a mechanism to force many into involuntary or institutional care. The new system would allow attorneys at the VA to start guardianship proceedings for veterans who don't have any family and are unable to make their own health care decisions. Critics are warning the new policy could raise civil liberty concerns. Three brothers were arrested today in connection with last weekend's explosion at the U.S. in Oslo, Norway. Prosecutors say they are Norwegian citizens of Iraqi origin. There was minor damage from the attack, but no injuries. Authorities say they're still trying to determine a motive.

New York Giants' co-owners Steve Lorry and Jonathan Tisch are requesting that they be allowed to transfer their stakes in the team to their children's trusts, the move to require approval from the NFL. Sources tell ESPN it's part of normal succession planning. Steve Tisch has been under scrutiny by the league recently for his close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Steve Tish has not been accused of any wrongdoing. Back over to you. Julia, thank you, Julia Borson. Well, credit concerns have been a nagging issue for the market so far this year, but up next we'll hear from someone willing to take the risk. Overtime, be right back. Welcome back to closing bell overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. The Dowdown nearly 300

points a day. Sherwin Williams in Home Depot, the worst performers, but the S&P 500, basically flat. So was a NASDAQ, but it did manage to finish just barely in the green. Oil, once again, the big driver of the action, gaining 5% on continued threats to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, despite a release of reserves from IEA countries. Shares of Caesar is making a big move late in the regular trading session on a report that Tillman Fertita is in talks to buy the company for $7 billion. That's about $34 a share higher than a recent bid from Carl Icon. Well, the rise in oil prices, This has investors cutting their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year, predicting higher inflation and the potential for slower growth.

As a result, the markets are now pricing in just about 30 basis points of cuts for the year. The drop in expectations coming as bond yields rise across the globe as well. Joining us now to discuss the state of the bond in credit markets is preemissress. She is JP Morgan portfolio manager focused on fixed income, but it's good to see you. Thanks for having me. So yes, yields in the U.S. and everywhere kind of like migrated up to the top end of this range, We're pricing a little bit less from the Fed. Is it an inflationary story there?

Is it something else? And where does it head from here? So I think the rates market is viewing this simply as an inflation shock globally. So that's why, you know, you talked about global rates have risen. In fact, the U.S. has outperformed. I would argue a geopolitical risk-driven rise in oil prices is a stack inflationary, you know, shock. So I think the markets focus on the inflationary. part. There's the growth aspect as well. This is a tax on the consumer. The consumer,

which has been actually doing okay, has been drawing down savings. And so I'm thinking there's not a lot of buffer here. If oil prices stay high for longer, I think it's going to be a drag on growth. So I would argue the market has been too myopically just looking at the inflation side. I don't think any central bank, particularly the Fed with a dual mandate, is likely to not cut rates. We still think the Fed's likely to cut rates later this year because we're in a low, higher, labor market. We think headline inflation will likely rise, but you know, you look at the details of inflation. The underlying trends are actually slowing. And, you know, I don't see that second order effect. It feels so different from 2022. But I think the market has some PTSD from what

happened in 2022, the fact that it was an energy price increase that sped over. So that's what the market's pricing in. I actually think this is an opportunity. There's value being created in bonds. I think owning some short duration treasuries is actually a hedge against growth slowing down, credit fears. There's a lot of things where treasuries will give you liquidity, and they'll sort of give you that hedge property as well. Where are those opportunities in bonds? I mean, just yesterday it was a historic day in terms of corporate investment-grade bond issuance. Is that where you want to be these days? And does the issuance of so much data center-related paper, is that going to cause, you know, prices to go down?

excuse me, basically. So that's a great point. I'm really glad you brought up all the supply because, you know, you hear of credit fears and are we at the end of the credit cycle. Then we have this lots of supply yesterday. The new issue concessions were not that high, and look at the

post-pricing performance was actually excellent. We're seeing inflows come into investment-grade bond funds. We're seeing inflows. I think people are looking at all in yields, you know, five and a half, six percent, if you can go into high yield, with lower sort of volatility. That's why we're seeing the

flows. I mean, you talk about the data center, I would say AI-related supply. If it's the hypers, we actually like those business models. We like the fact that they don't have a lot of debt. So, I mean, software aside, that's where I think the market's saying the AI winners versus losers, I think you have to do a lot of work there. Leverage is much higher. But the hypers don't have that much debt. So we've liked that sector. I mean, there's obviously at the right price, making sure that we're not over-invested in one particular sector. But, you know, I think it's very healthy for the market, that it's open, that when a good quality company comes in and issues debt, there's plenty of demand. These books were highly oversubscribed.

I think that's very healthy for the credit market. There's dispersion. So you have to be very careful. You know the borrower. You can read the covenants. But I think overall that demand is there for credit. I was going to say, when it comes to corporate supply, that is demand too. I mean, when the deals get done and they don't have to do it at very owner's yields, that's demand.

Just in terms of the Fed. Now, the market is still leaning toward. There will be room for a cut, maybe a little bit more. But, yeah, we're talking about looking at today's CPI and translating into PCE terms. It's still going to be elevated. It still all seems to move in the direction of a very kind of wait-and-see Fed. And I think we have a Fed meeting coming up. I think it's going to be a wait-and-see Fed meeting.

There's a lot of uncertainty. The Fed has cut a reasonable amount the last two years. So they have the luxury to wait. They can see how the data plays out. I think there is a very clear division, though, at the Fed. The two sides of the mandate are intention. There are those people at the Fed that are nervous about the employment side. There are others worried about inflation.

Now, we're dealing with a stackflation shock. So whatever that division was just got stronger. So I think they'll wait and see what I'll be watching will be that reaction function. So I think historically, Central Banks, the Fed, you know, looks through oil shocks. Do we get that sense that they're going to do that again? Are they going to look at longer-term inflation expectations? those have been remarkably well-behaved. I think the market's saying this is a short-term shock,

this is just going to be energy, the economy is otherwise healthy. I think if you start to question any of these assumptions, how does the Fed respond to it? That's what I'll be watching, not looking for anything next week. But I think the dot plot, we're also going to get that famous dot plot, I think that's going to signal further rate cuts

because I think the majority of the committee still thinks we're slightly restrictive. So that's where the market has these rate cuts. Maybe we push out the cuts from 26 to 20, But the market's forward-looking, as long as the Fed says we're in our path towards cutting rates, I think that's going to help gap how high, you know, the tenure came. Sure. Great.

Thank you very much. Good to see you. Up next we'll discuss whether the eye-popping gains we've seen from the memory stocks over the last year could be at risk or if the good times will keep rolling on. And as we head to break, check out some notable names, hitting 52-week lows today. Fair Isaac, Boston Scientific, American homes for rent, General Mills and Campbell's, which fell to the lowest level in 23 years, following weaker than expected earnings and guidance. Welcome back to overtime. Memory stocks historically have been a boom or bust trade, but lately it's been all boom. Christina Parts and other words, looks at whether there are any signs that that is changing.

Christina. Well, the memory trade we can clearly see has been one of the biggest on Wall Street, but now executives on both sides of the supply chain are telling me the shortage is far from over. S.K. Hinex told me this isn't a cycle. It's a structural shift. AI workloads require a fundamentally different at Far more memory-intensive architecture than anything the industry was built to support, which is why people are signing over one-year-long agreements. Micron told me the long-term supply commitments are now the new normal, and the customers confirm it. Meta, which just announced a new in-house-chip, AI chip today, told CNBC they are, quote,

absolutely worried about high-bandwidth memory, or supply, I should say, but said they've already locked in what they need. Broadcom CEO said the same thing on his earnings call, locked in through 2028. And on the hardware side, HBE's CEO told me, quote, we will continue to raise prices because the industry will continue to raise prices. There's just not enough supply for demand. That's been rocket fuel for the stocks. Micron up, 350% Western Digital up over 500% Sandus, up more than 1,100% just in the past year or one year.

The question now is whether management can convince investors what they've convinced their customers that the boom and bus cycle in memory is finally broken, guys. All right, Christina, they will keep trying. I appreciate it. We do have breaking news right now. President Trump making some comments on oil. Amid Javvers has the story. Amen.

Yeah, that's right. President Trump stopping to talk to a Cincinnati local broadcaster, WKRC, making some comments about the Strategic Oil Reserve, signaling that he's going to release some oil from there. Here's what he says. He says, we'll do that, and then we'll fill it up. He said, I filled it up once and I'll fill it up again. But right now, we'll reduce it a little bit. and that brings the prices down.

That's the president speaking to a local Cincinnati station on his trip. We expect to hear from him at the top of the hour, so maybe we'll get a little bit more detail from him. So no information here from the president about how much oil the U.S. intends to reserve. He describes it as a little bit and we'll fill it up again at some point later. All of this, obviously, guys, is designed to bring oil prices down and affect gas prices at the pump, which is obviously a political concern for the president. Back over to you.

All right. Amen, thank you. Amid Javvers. Getting back to the memory names, what could be the catalyst for the next bus cycle for the sector? Joining us now, Medi Hussaini, Hesahana, Senior Equity Research Analyst. Medi, great to have you with us. Yes, it's a pleasure to be with you. I mean, it's boom, boom, boom, until there's more supply on the market

and doesn't that happen in mid-27 or 28 when there's increased production? Let's just say 2030. Well, I was listening to Christina, and she was talking about how suppliers and customers, both are talking about increased tightness in supply of demand. And I would want to highlight the fact that buyers nor suppliers have a really good track record of forecasting the peak or the trough. Otherwise, there wouldn't be tightness or there wouldn't be excess supplier.

Remind you that it was only two years ago that we went through a very severe kind of nuclear winter downturn in memory. And now that the AI has become a really demand driver, there is a tightness. As I look into the next 15 months, I think the transition from training to inferencing will have an impact. I think ability to restore the data or these tokens would increase or have an incremental impact on NAM demand. And perhaps it would provide some kind of peeking in DRAM bid demand. So it is within a memory and transition from a DRAM to now that it should be focused on. Yeah.

In terms of the increased production, Medi, you had mentioned 2030. I read that, though, by mid-27, 28, many more clean rooms will be online. At what point are you really worried that this talk about increasing production will actually increase production and increased supply out there bringing prices lower? Obviously, I was rather sarcastic by making it 2030. When I look at all the new factory, we call it a clean room construction, I think there is a significant increase in wafer capacity, manufacturing capacity, by mid-20207.

I don't think suppliers are going to disclose how aggressively they're building these factories because they're negotiating with their customers. let me put in perspective. In January, we thought memory prices on a blended basis would be up 50% on a Q or Q basis. It is tracking to more than 75%. So as much as there is a longer-term supply agreement on a unit, prices are adjusted very dynamically.

But back to your question, I think the supply and demand would come in some sort of a balance by mid-27, and then it's just execution by suppliers to see how they could. be rational and minimize the downside risk to gross margin profiles. Maddie, how much is memory in terms of overall cost for data center construction or anything that they're being used for such that these massive price increases seem not to destroy

demand? Well, right now, if I were to just look at the mainstream AI platform like a Blackwell Ultra, memory and including storage accounts for about 50% of a bill of material, cost of these racks, and down 50%, it's a percentage of the overall semiconductor content. As we migrate to Rubin the next AI platform by Invidia, I think that mix goes higher. So memory and storage are becoming very critical to the AI, but I also highlighted that we're also going to transition from training to inferencing, and that's where the tip the balance in favor of NANN.

So the answer to a question is, yes, memory is very critical to the AI and adoption of AI inferencing. But the prices are up to, three, 400%. We're talking about, like, we can't really have 100% increase in prices on a sequential basis. When are we going to see some moderation? And I think that's more like a late,

late this year or into first half of 27. Got it. All right, many, thank you so much. Thank you. Up next, we'll look at the alternative investment the world's ultra-rich are turning to as a safe haven during the ongoing conflict in Iran. Closing about overtime live from the NASDAQ market site.

We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Wealthy investors around the world are turning to a safe haven outside of Wall Street during the conflict in Iran. Robert Frank has the details. Robert. Mike, good to see.

Well, from Porsches to Picasso's. Collectors spent over $700 million at the big auctions last week, despite all the turmoil in the markets and in geopolitics. Art auction sales in London totaling more than $550 million. That's up over 50% from last year. This Francis Bacon's self-portrait went for $21 million at Sotheby's. That was twice the estimate was sold by British billionaire investor Joe Lewis. Christie's, meanwhile, racked up sales of over $320 million in London, including this Henry Moore sculpture called King and Queen that went for $35 million. Back here in the U.S., the classic car market is powering to new records. At Amelia Island in Florida, Broad Arrow auctions held its biggest auction ever, totaling $111 million, and modern supercars right now going parabolic. This 2003 Ferrari Enzo going for $15 million, and a Porsche Carrera GT, the only one in this color, went for $6.7 million.

That is the highest price ever paid for that model. Now, some say all this strength in collectibles is a flight to safety by wealthy investors. Others say it's the rare quality of the art and cars coming to market that's boosting sales. Now, for more on the booming collectibles markets, and what's ahead for art and classic car. prices, sign up for the Inside Wealth newsletter at cnbc.com slash inside wealth. Guys, back to you. Robert, Frank. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Before the bell, we will get earnings from a trio of consumer stocks, Dollar General, Dick's sporting goods, and G3 apparel, which owns the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands. And after the bell, we'll break down numbers

from Adobe, Lenar, Alta Beauty, Sentinel One, and Rubrik. And on the economic front, we'll get weekly jobless claims, the January U.S. trade deficit and the January housing starts in building permits reports. So we'll have some stuff to chew on, but obviously we're expecting, as Amid had mentioned, President Trump, to detail a release from the SPR at the top of the hour, so we'll be looking for some more details on that. Yeah, on a day after we got the sort of, you know, it was sort of a sell-the-rumor by the news on the release from the IAA countries of new oil supply. So we'll see exactly whether, you know, oil calmed down for as much as it was up four bucks, five bucks today. So it's sort of in this weird kind of tenuous equilibrium at the

moment, kind of craving any direction that we get from there. We will, you know, you mentioned the housing related data. It's been a very weak group, home building and residential real estate as well. So maybe we get some fresh insight there. All right, that does it for overtime today. Fast money begins right after this quick break.