Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 3/19/26

Episode Date: March 19, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell is bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC, Zylam, ringing the bell and at the Nazak, Roke, doing the honors. Welcome to closing bell overtime. We are live from Studio B at the Nazak Market Site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli. Sox seeing a spike into positive territory in just the last hour of trading before reversing course. This is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says the country is helping the U.S. Open the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow off about 200 points. The S&P and NASAC off about a quarter percent each.

Energy and tech lead while materials and staples lag. Tech turning positive for the year. More in the stock market and energy markets straight ahead. On our radar at the closed, FedEx set to report earnings. Will they deliver? And a technical breakdown for gold, as well as the weight loss drug battle ramping up. But we start with Amon Javers in Washington with the latest headlines on the Iran war that pushed the market higher, at least a little bit off the lows in the last hour, Amin.

Yeah, that's right, Mike. We saw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel in. Jerusalem making comments to reporters there. And those comments clearly getting the market's attention. And you can go through this set of remarks line by line and sort of look at, you know, is this comment bullish? Is this comment bearish? You know, he said Iran has no capacity to enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles after 20 days of war. That would seem to be an optimistic comment about, you know, the fact that the military objectives might be near at hand. He also says there are many possibilities for a ground component. I won't share what they are. That,

you know, maybe seems a little bit bearish. He says, we need alternative roots that avoid Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Again, that seems to be a bit of a bearish sentiment, given that he might be pointing to a longer conflict in the Strait of Hormuz than a lot of people in the market had assumed. And then there's this line. He said, but I also see this war ending a lot faster than a lot of people think. So, again, maybe that's a positive comment. He sees something that the rest of us don't see. Obviously, the Israelis have exquisite intelligence as to what's going on in Tehran. So he might be seeing something that the rest of us can't see that gives him room for optimism. You know, the market's going to have to digest all of that and decide what to

make of it, Mike. Amon, it seems like the no capacity to enrich uranium or make a ballistic, I mean, that seems like the most bullish takeaway out of this, because that would mean that the U.S. has met a criteria for ending this escalation. Right. I mean, that would seem to say that the military objective is close at hand, certainly, right? I mean, we saw Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary this morning at the Pentagon, saying the president of the United States is the only one who will determine when the military objectives have been met and whether this war should end. But clearly, they set out a number of objectives, including the continuation of the nuclear program, Iran's missile capacity and Iran's ability to project terror in the region, were all, kind of the stated military objectives here.

If one of those boxes is checked, you might think, well, we're closer to the end than the beginning. And so maybe that's a positive for markets. Sort of secondary to that point, but I did think it was noteworthy, too, Amon, that Nihahu said that while it was Israel's call to attack that energy infrastructure, the overnight attacks, the Trump administration has basically said, as the Trump administration itself has described its position, does not want to see further attacks of that sort. So I do wonder if that was, you know, an effort, obviously, to kind of confirm the White House's version of things,

but also suggest that the bar is high for more energy attacks. Yeah, I think clearly that's what's going on here. Netanyahu trying to backstop President Trump, who said the United States didn't know anything about that gas field attack, doesn't approve of it, and in fact told the Israelis to stop it, because of the blowback on Qatar, the U.S. ally in the region, and the damage that that threatens to do to U.S. alliances with some of the Gulf states. I mean, clearly, Trump is trying to balance his alliance with Israel and his alliance with the Gulf states, who in the early days you heard from Israeli officials in particular.

I was in a Zoom meeting with the president of Israel very early on, who said that one of the major accomplishments of this war diplomatically was that the Israelis and the Gulf states were working together in what he called a NATO-like. coalition that we'd never seen before between Arabs and Israel. That very coalition is threatened by this retaliation against the oil and gas capacity of Qatar. And the president clearly is eager to keep that cooperation going and keep the alliances with the U.S. in place. Amen, thank you. Amon Javis is with the latest from Washington. And Micah, it does seem like the perfect time for a glimmer of hope for these markets, which basically hit yours.

lows today. Yes. You did have people leaning pretty hard in the downside direction. You broke some, you know, 200-day moving average broke again today. You did make a new low for the year. So clearly, you know, the pressure is building and the market is in this downtrend that it has to prove it can get out of. But if you wanted to really start to run the checklist, regional banks were down and they finished higher. Gold and silver cracking, you know, it's almost one of those things that has to happen at the end before you might actually get some kind of a final type of climactic move. I still think everyone has been wanting for this de-escalatory signal and they're ready for it. And that's why you had that really quick twitch higher doesn't mean that we can believe that there's

change here. But it shows you tactically, people recognize that it's going to rip once we get the sun. Yeah. And you start to see now a path to getting out of this within the time frame that the administration, And economists say we have to get out of this thing before it does real damage. And, of course, we can't ignore what's going on in Europe, which happened hours and hours ago, but really had a direct impact on yields today. And, of course, the markets in terms of the BEO, identifying, admitting that there is inflationary impacts here.

The fact that the markets are now pricing in to hikes. For the ECB. Yeah. And that underscores the notion or the fear of the U.S. markets, I think, that this could really have an impact. here and that maybe the next move of the Fed could actually be a hike. Yeah. And even if you don't go there, that just the negative growth effects are going to have to be digested before, you know, if it goes long enough. So, yep, we're still in the four-week window. I keep saying that. That was what was set out initially, but we're not going

to be for much longer. Yeah. We do a FedEx earnings. They are out. Let's get to them. Frank Holland's got those numbers. Frank. Hey there, Melissa. FedEx share is moving higher up with just about a percent higher right now after top and bottom line beats for FedEx. In fact, when we're looking at EPS, the biggest earnings beat since September of 2020. Revenue came in at $24 billion compared to the estimate of $23.49 billion. EPS at $5.25 a share compared to the estimate of $4.9 a share. That was 28% above consensus. The company also raised its guidance. The prior guidance was at $1780 to $19 per share for the full year. Keep in mind, we are in Q3 right, or this is the Q3 report. We are in Q4. They raised it up to 1930 to 2010. Guidance for the full year is higher,

but it's like very clearly fueled by this Q3 beat. Some other key points in this report. Yule 4 Express up 6%. That includes ground and air. Margin also beat estimates. And the yields for freight up 8%. FedEx also up this cost cutting guidance slightly. The prior guidance was $1 billion.

Now they say it's going to be more than $1 billion. They also maintain that their spin off of FedEx freight will happen as planned coming up in June. Again, shares the FedEx up just about 1%. Back over to you. Frank Holland. Let's get to Christina Parsons and Abelos with a look at today's biggest movers in the markets. Christina. Thank you. Well, you talked about it, but the major average is really closing lower for the second session in row with the exception of the Russell as sticky inflation

data. You guys went over that, firmer for longer. Rate outlook and rising oil really kept equities on the defensive. Rate sensitive pockets led the retreat home builders like D.R. Horton, Lenar, Toll Brothers, all came under pressure with the exception of D.R. Horton, just reversing into the close as higher mortgage rates expectations and affordability concerns really kept a lid on the housing recovery trade today. Large cap gold miners, Newmont Barrick, Agnico Eagle close lowers the dollar firms and

traders pair back near-term Fed cut expectations, weakening that hedge play appeal that has made miners one of this year's strongest themes. Got to mention aluminum and copper also slumping today. And in the tech world, Micron fell after earning stoked concerns about

demand and margin sustainability. They're guiding 81% margins in the memory cycle, though it's CAPEX commitment did lift semi-cac names like KLA as well as applied materials. And last but not least, Alibaba sold off again after quarterly results missed both on the top and bottom line dragged by software core commerce growth and elevated costs, which is reviving questions just about the pace of China's consumer recovery guys. Christina, thank you.

Now to the bond market where yields continue to rise, particularly at the shorter end, such as the two-year maturity. Rick Santelli is in Chicago with details on today's action. Rick? Yeah, that was the morning. Boy, did things change in the afternoon. Let's look at a 12-hour chart of two year and 10 year. As you look at what happened this morning, two years made it all the way up to 395 and 10 years up to 432.

However, look what happened since. And if you look at a year to date chart, it really puts it in perspective. Basically, we have a major bear steepening going on, meaning rates up, yield curve flattening. You see that two day of 210 spread? You see what the low was this morning when all of that volatility hit? 36 basis points. That is the flat as it's been since early April of 25. But here's the important part. This could be that blowoff. We have the post-fed surge in the short end and all of a sudden the short end's only up two basis points. As a matter of fact, right now the 10 year is actually lower on the week and it never made a new. new high yield close from its January highs. All this is very telling. If the two year continues to close above 375, Mike, I would still take a bit of a bearish look, but I think that was a blowoff in the 10 year until it closed above 430. I think the flattening curve, you pay attention

to that, but all my higher yields in the long end might be under review based on how that tenure closes out the week. Back to you. Yeah, still obeying, I guess, the top end of that range. Rick, much. Well, let's dig deeper into the market since the attack on Iran. We've seen oil prices rise, yields rise, as we were just discussing. Stocks fall and precious metals break down. Our next guest says one of these markets looks disconnected from the others. Joining us now is Unlimited CEO and CIO. Bob Elliott, Bob, good to see you. Good to see you. So you think that stocks have their head in the sand, or how do you read the cross-asset action here? Well, if you just basically take a look at what's happened since the Iran conflict emerged, is that basically stocks have fallen

to some extent, but they've largely fallen in line with long-term bonds. And so actually, an aggregate, what we're seeing is when you look at stocks compared to bonds, the markets are pricing in stronger growth since the beginning of this conflict. Now, that doesn't make any sense in the context of households basically getting something like 1 to 2 percent of real purchasing power is going to be taken away from them, even if this conflict resolves tomorrow, right? just from all the built-up oil prices and the gas prices that have to flow through the system. And so it seems like the stock market is just far too optimistic about the macro reality that's coming through the rest of the year. Couldn't that also just be that the market is suggesting that initially the inflationary impact is going to be more dramatic than the drag on growth?

And that explains the stock bond action? Well, I think it's just, it's relatively simple in terms of household spending. Like, we were already on a knife set coming into this year. household nominal income growth was about 3.5%. Nominal spending growth was 5.5%. What that means is that households have been rapidly to saving, even before this war. Add in a cut to real purchasing power of 1 to 2%, and they have to save even more in order to maintain their real spending. And that's probably not going to happen in an environment where we're seeing stock sell off every day. And so that's the real challenge here is paint a picture of how we're going to get the sort of 2 to 3% real growth

that the stock market is expecting, given the household consumption environment ahead. So in the context of the other assets moving and their moves so far, where should stocks be? What is the downside risk from here? Well, I think a lot of ways we have a bit of an amnesia about what happened in 2022. Stocks fell 25%. Now, I'm not saying stocks are going to fall 25 percent tomorrow. It's a bit different environment. But still, the overall magnitude of the oil shock that we saw back then is equivalent to today. if anything, today is actually a little worse,

if you look out the curve in terms of how things are priced in the oil market. And so you could easily see a move that's going to take, you know, five or 10 percent more off of stocks here before at least we're getting close to what's priced into expectations for the hit to household demand. What does your read on the unwind in the gold and silver trade? Obviously, some people would have thought you have this ratcheting up of geopolitical uncertainty. It should perform.

Obviously not the case. We have down 5 percent today. Yeah, I think one of the biggest challenges, in the same way war has a momentum of its own, so does degrossing across the markets. And that's really, over the last couple of weeks, we've changed, we've radically changed our volatility environment. We went from a 12 to 15 vol environment to a 25 to 30 vol environment, totally different volatility environments. Everyone who can is being tapped on the shoulder from their risk managers saying, bring down the risk, let's go. And that's basically what we're seeing, winning trades across the board, where they're talking about Japanese stock. European stocks, gold, silver, all of those winning trades are getting paired back as everyone's,

basically all the levered money, all the smart money is basically booking their wins for the year, cutting back their positions and taking the gains that they have. And the problem is that has a momentum that can persist, even if tomorrow we get a bit better set of geopolitical outcomes than expected. Bob, good to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Bob Elliott. Energy prices on the move again today after Iran strikes on net gas facilities in Qatar. Pippa Stevens got the details.

Hi, Pippa. Hey, Melissa. Oil is staging a dramatic reversal, briefly turning negative just a bit ago, following comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel will help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz, Grant hitting a high of $119.13 earlier in the session, while WTI topped 100. As the attack on Qatar's Rasslafan was seen as an escalation, that facility facing extensive damage with Qatar Energy's CEO telling Reuters 17% of the plant's production could be offline for up to five years. It also raises questions about the expansion in the north field that had been underway. European gnat gas rising more than 20% at one point today, topping 68 euros per megawatt hours at the high. Now, Arbob is holding its gains with heating oil and gas oil up more than 3% at one point.

We are seeing oil diverted via pipelines to Yanbu and Fujaira in order to bypass the strait, but much of that is light oil. And what the market really needs is heavier oil, which is why the middle distillates, including diesel and jet fuel, are getting so tight. Guys? PIPA, thanks. Pippa Stevens. So what will it take for oil prices to stabilize?

Joining us now to discuss as Halima Croft Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and a CNBC contributor. Helima, great to see you. I wanted to first get your take on the developments out of Israel. They say that Iran no longer has a capability

to enrich uranium or make a ballistic missile. How bullish is this, if at all, to the oil picture? I mean, President Trump, I said the same thing. as well. And I find it remarkable that we have a major escalation last night, and then we have a sell-off because another head of state says the war is going to be over soon. That was a similar pattern that we saw with President Trump, saying the war would end soon right before the closing

bell. I think we need to be looking at actions instead of words. And right now, there is still, the only volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz are basically Iranian volumes. There's no indication that there is a real plan to reopen the straits at this stage. The U.S. military has signaled that it is not prepared yet to do naval escorts. So I think we're still talking about extended outages of Middle Eastern supplies to the market. I don't see any indication yet that we are really about to turn the corner and get these volumes back on the market. And the bypass routes that are available, those were targeted last night as well. Now, not taken offline, but for example, Yambu Port should not be considered necessarily secure. It's in the range of Houthi

missiles that the Houthis came into the conflict, and the Iranians targeted it last night. So again, we're selling off because we have a statement that the war is ending soon, but what do we have to materially back that up? I'm curious what you think also about the Qatar Energy's CEO's comments to Reuters, which seem really interesting. The notion that 17% of capacity is going to be taken offline for five years, how do you think about that sort of disruption? Feasively, other places can start making up for that loss capacity or post-war?

war or not? I mean, I'm deeply concerned about what's happening with LNG flows out of Qatar. I mean, there is no bypass route for LNG flows from the Middle East. And the fact is that we've had a shutdown of the world's largest LNG facility since the start of the conflict, Rass LaFawn. Now that facility is damaged. So we are already thinking about like how long it's the take to get this facility back up online before we even had reports of damage.

So again, I think this is working. We all have to hope that there are no more attacks on this facility. And I think President Trump was really eager to get the Israeli Prime Minister to signal that he would not be targeting Iranian oil infrastructure again, setting off a retaliatory cycle. But we just have to see where this conflict goes. And we have heard soon excursion. We really need to have a clear path to how this conflict unwinds. Haleema, though, is the path not that the president and Netanyahu

decide that it's time. I mean, I think the escalate to de-escalate story used to be something we used for the tariff campaign. And I just sort of wonder if there's, if we're entering some kind of, you know, kind of open-ended automated escalation cycle or if they can just sort of decide to pull back? Well, it takes two to Taco. And the reality is that the Iranians also have a say in when this war ends. And from everything we have heard, the Iranians want to make sure that when this war ends, the United States and Israel don't launch. a third round of attacks on Iran. So from their standpoint, I think we have to think about,

even if we call time or Israel calls time, Iran has shown no willingness right now to allow significant flows through the Strait of Hormuz. They are effectively blocking it, except for their own volumes going through. And so the real question is, what's it also going to take for Tehran to say, we're going to stand down,

and we are going to allow ships to go through? Or is the United States actually going to to have to send in ground forces to help secure the strait in order to deal with the missiles and drones being fired, you know, around the waterways of the Middle East. So again, I think we need to see a lot more evidence that the Iranians are prepared to unwind as well. At this point, Halima, how should we think about the new range or if there is a new range for the prices for WTI, for Brent, and for NAC gas? Well, I think Deretia does matter. So I I understand why market participants will seize on any sign that this war is ending because

none of the policy recommendations are really going to like make up for this massive supply outage from the Middle East. So the question is, if we are sitting having this conversation one month from now, I mean, April will be the cruelest month because I do think we'll be looking at taking out the highs that we saw for Brent and WTI in the Russia-Ukraine war. And then if we are in a multi-month conflict, I do think we're looking at those OAE highs. So, again, a short wind-out would be fantastic for markets, but we really need to see evidence that this war is going to end and we're going to see exports back on the market from the Middle East. And again, it's not just an energy story.

As you know, the fertilizer story is incredibly important to global food security. We have issues around other products being blocked like helium. So we really, really need to see evidence that the straight is going to be reopened. Halima, thank you. Great to see you. Halima Croft. Thank you. FedEx shares higher after reporting better than expected earnings.

Up next, we'll get reaction from an analyst who recently hiked its price target on the stock, plus gold falling sharply today, now down roughly 12% since the war in Iran began. Coming up, we'll take a look at whether this is a buying opportunity or if the precious metal has lost its appeal as a safe haven. You're watching closing bell overtime, live from the Nazak market site. FedEx share is moving higher in after our session, up three and three quarters percent. The company raising its outlook for the full year after revenue and package yields increased. Management also saying its freight spinoff remains on track for June 1st.

The company saying it's reducing its capital spending outlook as well. Let's dig into the numbers with Evercores, Jonathan Chappelle. He's got an in-line rating on the stock, $380 price target. Jonathan, great to see you. Thanks, most good to see you as well. I think it was a few weeks back when you raised your estimates primarily on. an improved macro backdrop. And a lot has changed since then.

The U.S. is now in a conflict in the Middle East. And so how does that change, how you view the backdrop for the company? Yeah, well, I think the important thing to remember is this is a February 28th, you know, fiscal quarter end. So the impact of the war is certainly not flushed out in these numbers, which on the surface are incredible. You know, FedEx has been executing on the cost side now for two and a half years. They've had a real boost to pricing and yield. and that's been driving the earnings upside for really a year and a half to two years. In this particular quarter, the U.S. ground packages exceeded our estimate by a pretty meaningful

amount, almost 4%. So this is the first quarter we can remember where you've had a real macro tailwind on the volume side. How that then translates into March, April and May, depending on how long the war plays out, is anybody's guess. But the core U.S. demand side seems a lot more solid than any time we'd seen in the last couple of years. Jonathan, the stock is obviously kind of re-rated pretty dramatically, especially if you look at it relative to UPS, the premium based on sort of forward earnings estimates and things like that is pretty wide. Is that justified right now based on what FedEx is doing,

and I guess by contrast what UPS has done? Yeah, absolutely, Mike. I mean, if you, again, look at the last couple of years, the difference in execution, the difference in yield growth, but most importantly, margins. You know, UPS is having some of their own company-specific things to deal with as it relates to having Amazon work its way off its network, 45%, or 55%, I'm sorry, of the Amazon packages. So UPS is trying to, you know, work on getting their cost structure right. While FedEx has been undergoing this cost initiative of Network 2.0 in their drive program for almost three years now.

So there really has been significant outperformance in the operations, in the financials, and I think that reread is warranted at this point. The conference call doesn't start for another hour or so, Jonathan. So I'm curious in the meantime, as you start thinking about what you want to ask management, what will that number one question be? I mean, I'm also curious commentary on how they're going to combat fuel costs with that macro backdrop potentially deteriorating. Yeah, what are you curious about? That's right. I mean, they go back to your first question too. A lot has changed since this quarter ended.

Now, they did raise their guidance. There's only one quarter left in their fiscal year. And to raise the midpoint from 1840 to 1970 makes it seem that at least at this point, there doesn't seem to be a lot of disruption associated with the war. From what we've heard, they've had to reroute a lot of their aircraft around that area for obvious reasons. Fuel prices will be an immediate cost impact, but they make a lot of money on fuel surcharge as well.

And the fact that this war broke out the very beginning of the corridor means that there might be a fuel surcharge catchup that at least offsets, if not exceeds, the cost impact to it. So that could be a benefit to them. And that really is going to be the biggest focus. A lot's changed in the world in the last three weeks. How much of their operations have been disrupted? Is this throwing off some of the network reorganization that they're doing as they need to reroute around the Middle East? And what does it mean for both fuel costs and fuel surcharges and by association yield? and was that part of the upside to the fourth quarter outlook?

Should be an interesting call. Jonathan, Chappelle, and we are seeing FedEx shares tick after our session highs right now at 4.5%. Meantime, Lily shares down roughly 15% this year coming up. We'll hear from an analyst who thinks more pain could be ahead because investors may be overestimating the obesity drug market. Tonight is a premiere of CNBC cures defying rare disease. Our Becky Quick shares her family's battle with her daughter's rare disease and highlights how one reality game show winner is using his jackpot to help find a cure for a son's condition.

Just so you can see, inside this briefcase, is the Holy Grail, the check for $10 million. On Prime Videos, most watch reality series ever, 50 million people around the world witnessed an unlikely victory. A thousand players faced off for the $10 million jackpot. Beast Games player number 831 beat every odd and won. Little man, he did that for you. But for Jeffrey Allen, his win wasn't the finale. It was just the beginning. I remember Jen hugged me and said,

we're going to find a cure for Lucas. And it's all a miracle. Alan's son, Lucas, suffers from an ultra-rare creatine transporter deficiency. We can't pull, sweet boy. He's one of an estimated 500 known cases in the world. Creatine is vital for brain function. Disruptions can cause intellectual disability, speech delays, and behavioral issues.

The urgency to kind of go, okay, we have this platform, we have the money to make a change for Lucas and for kids with CTD. Like, we got to go. Do not miss the premier of CNBC Cures, defying rare disease. That is tonight 7 p.m. Eastern time here on CNBC. Time now for a CNBC News update with McKenzie Segalos. McKenzie. Hey, Mike. Temple Israel shared photos on social media today at the devastation inside the

synagogue one week after the attack in West Bloomfield Township, Michigan. The images show the charred walls, broken glass, and debris left after a man rammed a truck into the building. Security opened fire and fatally shot the suspect. No staff or children were injured in the attack. Senagogue officials wrote that their goal in sharing the photos was to take back control of her narrative. The number of TSA agents calling out of work is growing, according to DHS. More than 10% were absent from work on Wednesday as the partial government shutdown drags on. Major airports

saw the most absences, 38% of TSA agents called out from Atlanta and Houston airports, and 25% called out from New York's JFK. And ABC is pooling the newest season of The Bachelorette featuring influencer and reality star Taylor Frankie Paul. The network made the decision after newly released surfaced of an alleged 23 domestic violence incident. The new season was set to premiere on Sunday. Back to you guys. Mack, thank you. Oil prices are soaring because of the war in Iran,

but up next, we'll discuss whether agricultural commodities could also be on the verge of a breakout. Welcome back to overtime. Gold and silver have both been falling sharply since the attack on Iran with gold now on pace for its worst week since March of 2020. So are these safe haven trades and precious metals starting to crack?

our next guest breaks down the technical charts for commodities. Joining us now as Fairleet Strategist Strategies founder and managing partner and CBC contributor, Katie Stockton. Katie, Gold, is it game over? Just a break? How are you seeing it? I see it just as a break. I think we usually should assume that the prevailing trend will resume. But for now, it is definitely an off phase for the precious metals.

We had a loss of upside momentum that was pretty meaningful behind both gold, silver, and even beyond. that platinum, palladium, et cetera. And I want to respect that as something that is indicative of maybe even just more than a short-term correction, something that could be a bit longer in duration. We're talking about maybe months even, not just weeks. So a prolonged pause, and that's based in part on the overbought oversold metrics that we track. We already had these older overbought downturns, but there are active cell signals from the demarc indicators on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts of gold. And that's something that you don't see too often. And it does suggest that they did get ahead of themselves. You mentioned silver also in the context of

gold. Is it is bad? It is. I'd say it's even worse. Unfortunately, we have silver now. I think it's down about 45% from the recent high at today's low, which is pretty remarkable. It's almost like a higher beta version of gold. And with this corrective phase, of course, you have weak momentum. And believe it or not, it's not even oversold when you reference the weekly indicator. So you don't have that intermediate term oversold that we like to see to suggest that at least a counterprend entry is at hand. I think the trade there really isn't to add to these precious metals into weakness, but rather maybe to set up a pair where you're long gold and short. it's silver because if you look at that ratio, it looks pretty high probability that will see gold

outperform. Yeah, that ratio did get to certainly pretty extreme extremes, not too long ago. Not as commented on is the ag complex, Katie. So the DBE, that's like a commodity index exchange traded instrument. What are you seeing there? Yeah, DBA caught my attention because it broke out from a big triangle formation. And we love triangles. I feel like they're, among the highest probability setups. And it also occurred within the scope of a long-term or secular uptrend for ags entirely. But when you pick it apart, when you look at the individual commodities, you can see in

particular that both corn and wheat seem to have bases in place after prolonged downtrend. So it seems like part of this turnaround is being driven by those corn and wheat individual commodities. And it's contributing to the improvement. momentum behind DBA. I like the triangle. I like the long, long term up trend. And I think what we can find in DBA is something that is different than the S&P 500,

which has, of course, been under pressure. Katie, great to see you. Thanks. You too. Katie Stockton, a fair lead. We've got a news alert on CalShe. Contessa Brewer's got that story. Contessa.

Well, just in time to coincide with March Madness, how's this for Madness? In just two months, the Wall Street Journal reports, Cal She has doubled its valuation from $11 billion to $22 billion with a new fundraising round, a billion dollars led by investment firm CO2 management. Just in December, they had announced a billion dollar fundraise that valued the prediction platform at $11 billion. I did reach out to Calci and just now heard back from them that we are declining to comment on the rumored round.

All of this, Melissa, of course, around a lot of spotlight and attention paid to the amount of trading volume, Calci and its competitors, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and even Draft Kings and Fandle prediction platforms are doing in this new kind of wagering on sports. Contessa, thanks. Contessa Brewer. The obesity drug fight between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is heating up today after a new decision by the FDA. Up next, we'll get reaction from an analyst who just downgraded Lily this week. Welcome back to overtime. There are new developments in the obesity drug market today. Angelica Peebles has the details for us. Hi, Angelica. Hey, Mike. Well, Novo today

winning approval for a higher dose of Wigobi that helps people lose almost as much weight as Lilly shot Zepbound. Now, this new dose is three times higher than the current max strength of Wigobi, and a novo executive telling me that it'll help make Wagovi more competitive against Zepbound since it reduces that delta between the two. Now, Novo's not sharing how much this new dose will cost until it launches next month. And as a As you guys know, Novo has been trying to regain some of the ground that it's lost to Lily in this weight loss space, and it could help, but Lily today is trying to get ahead in the race to deliver more weight loss.

And the company today saying that it's experimental triple G drug, read a Trutide, helped people with diabetes lose more weight than other GLP ones. So at the highest dose, people lost an average of more than 15% of their body weight after about nine months. And to give you some context, that's about what we see with Bogovie and people with diabetes typically don't lose as much weight as people without diabetes. So that's a really big number. But both of these companies now are facing questions about whether we really need more potent drugs

and where this market goes from here. Of course, there's been some big numbers. And now the question is just how real are those guys? Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. Our next guest downgraded Eli Lilly this week, saying the total addressable market for obesity might be smaller than anticipated due to costs and competition rising.

Joining us now is Rajesh Kumar. He is a senior global health care. care analysts at HSBC. Rajesh, great to have you with us. You're actually saying it's up to $70 billion too optimistic. I mean, it's an order of magnitude too optimistic. It's all pricing. I mean, how can we get it so wrong? How could the companies get it so wrong? Hi there. I don't think the companies have ever said that it's a $150 or $200 billion market. The trouble we've got here is, you know, when the share prices go up and you have got a growth story, then the street sort of gets excited and starts putting out numbers, which

if you add them up, suddenly looks, ooh, that's a bit much. And my real source of worry on Lily is the oral launch this year, where, you know, consensus numbers set at one and a half billion dollars of revenue, which is not even for a full year, right? And if you look at Novo's Oral Vigobi, which has had a fantastic launch, consensus sort of gets to half a billion dollar, right? So the expectations are quite bifurcated. And you have step one pricing, which we know that most favored nations sort of has put about,

you know, 19%, 20%, or 18% price had been depending on the mix. You got IRA pricing, which is going to come out next year. We don't know how that's going to interact. And then you got direct to consumer channel, where prices are low. And if we peer out in next three years or so, you've got about 180 plus drugs in development by different companies. So I'm not saying all of them will come to the market, but, you know, we are sort of struggling to find what differentiates one from the other, right? And efficacy no longer is a winner. maybe tolerability is, maybe less muscle losses, but at the end of the day, you know, price is going in one direction and that needs to be reflected in market. Thank you.

So are the best days for these weight loss drug stocks? Are they behind them because of the competition? Because of the increased pricing pressure, which I would presume would continue even with newer drugs on the market? these companies are not making $120 billion today, right? We're still talking about growth. Okay, No, we probably won't grow this year according to their guidance, but Lily is still talking about 25% growth. The problem is not whether we won't have growth or we would have growth. The problem is the current growth expectations the street has might be a bit optimistic. That's all we're saying.

All right. we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much. Rajesh Kumar, HSBC. The energy sector seeing outsized gains since the war in Iran began. Up next, we'll tell you whether it's time to take profits. Closing bill, overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Since the start of the war in Iran, markets have been whipping around on headlines in every direction. Oil and yields higher, stock's slower, and even precious metals breaking down. Our next guest says the key market risk right now is tightening financial conditions which could hit the weakest balance sheets. Joining us is chairman of Faircrest

Capital and CBC contributor, Michael Farr. Michael, it's great to have you. We detail all these asset prices moving pretty dramatically in a short period of time. That usually means investors have an opportunity to maybe take the other side or figuring out of trends or changing. What's your top line in terms of how an investor should seize on this environment? I think, first of all, be disciplined, Mike. You really want to be disciplined. You really want to be discipline and what you're doing. As you're seeing certain areas of the market get kind of hot, maybe oil and energy, and those prices are really rising and being driven by what I'm calling a transportation crisis

more than a supply chain crisis, I think some profit-taking and resizing of positions that have moved really far, really quickly in order to make sure you're back within your investment plan and your risk parameters. So I'm trying to be really clear that I'm not talking about market timing or trading, because that's not my real area or a strength, but to actually stay within your investment discipline. I also think there's some opportunities out there, of course, as prices are coming down. These sorts of periods can go on longer than you think, but if you look back historically 50 or 60 years through other periods of war, most every time a year later, prices are a good deal

higher. Sure. Obviously, you know, valuations have come off the boil. investor sentiment has moderated. It's certainly not a lot of excess optimism out there anymore. But you mentioned financial conditions tightening, and I guess that can have real economic effects. So are we still talking about a growing economy, growing earnings, and those things we thought we were going to have in 2026? It's getting to be a more complicated answer, isn't it? Because as the financial conditions tighten, because we are seeing some inflation data that are starting to sort of tick up again, PPI number, of course,

was very hot producer price index. And we are seeing some squeeze a little bit from the tariffs here. So interest rates really can't go down. So we no longer have that Fed easing sort of a backdrop for investors, and we've got to look at the hard numbers and where is growth coming from. On the other hand, we're still spending a lot of money as a government, $2 trillion a year in deficit spending. As long as that money continues to surge in,

I think the economy continues to stay alive and it can happen for a few more years. Opportunities are still out there, though. I mean, you get Microsoft at 21 times earnings. I disagree with your last guest, by the way. I've owned Lilly for a long time. I'm very happy with it when I see the way it's expanding on a fundamental driven argument and on its balance sheet. I'm not selling a share of my Lilly.

If it comes down weaker, I might add some. But also, like Microsoft, you have to look at Nvidia and Google. the MAG-Sevener, I think we're presenting some opportunities in here as a result of the weakness. We're only down like 7% from the all-time highs. We're down 3.5% year-to-date. Not really even a correction yet, but be patient and disciplined because opportunities are cropping up. Michael, really appreciate the time today. Michael Farr of Farkris Capital. Thank you. Well, it should be interesting to see how the markets continue to digest the news that we got from Israel. afternoon. For sure. You know, a Friday, of course, that's often been a little bit of a time to

be apprehensive. We also have a very large quarterly options expiration happening tomorrow. Now, it happens every three months. It doesn't necessarily mean it's directionally positive, but what often it means is a lot of the hedges get wiped away, and maybe some of the positions that have been pinned in place, they can move a little bit farther. So I know that's going to get a little bit of attention in the morning. Yeah, absolutely. And of course, FedEx, that conference call starts in about a half an hour of time. The analysts we spoke to brought up an interesting point about the fuel surcharge could actually be a tailwind for FedEx, which you don't think necessarily. So we'll see what I recall that from 2022. They stay in place, even when fuel prices

come down a little bit. It's a little bit of pricing power in that regard. But yeah, what they say about volumes, we got to listen for that as that call happens. All right, that does it for overtime today. Fast money begins right after this quick break.