Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 3/27/26

Episode Date: March 28, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bell is bringing an end to the trading day at the NYSC Presidio production ringing the bell, and at the NASDAQ, it's dressed for success. Welcome to closing bell overtime live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. I'm Mike Santoli. Melissa Lee is off today. Stock selling off into the close, the Dow losing nearly 800 points, 10% off its high, above 50,000. The S&P 500, down for the fifth straight week. It is its worst losing streak in four years.

Our markets team has all the angles covered. stocks, bonds, oil, and we are, of course, watching everything coming out of the White House. Also on our radar, meta's been getting more attention, but Google also down big this week. We'll talk to an analyst who says it's time to buy. And while every other mag-7 name fell this week, Apple is in the green. So can this stock live up to its reputation as a safety play? And though there will only be four trading days next week is setting up as a big one for the markets. We will get all set for that.

But we start with Christina Parks and Nevelos on this down day wrapping up a losing week. Christina. Yeah, the fifth week of war and the fifth week of selloffs with the Dow and the NASDAG, both at least 10% off their 52-week highs. Consumer discretionary, though, leading today's losses. The XLY ETF on track for its worst month since December 2020. Decker's in the Sea of Red was the only one I could find in the green today. Financials also lower this week dragged down by crypto and fintech stocks like Robin Hood Block, Coinbase. City also finished in the red today specifically on a report it may be eyeing a regional bank, but a claim the company later denied The NASDAQ 100 hasn't hit an all-time high in 102 sessions. It's longest stretch since 2023

The biggest weight you talked about it big tech Microsoft meta Amazon and video each down roughly 20 to 30% from their recent highs also lost the mag 7 lost about one trillion in market cap just over the last two days Specifically today data dog was worst performer in both the S&B B-500, NASDAQ-100, tumbling alongside other cybersecurity names like Palo Alto. Crowdstrike after reports that Anthropics' new AI model could pose some fresh security risk. And then in chips, we had ARM give back some profit-taking, or give back some games, I should say, on profit-taking, while memory stocks managed to eke out a small gain across the board.

But Micron's still down, roughly 15% or more just in the last five days as investors really react to the latest Google technology and how it's changing. the memory space, if so. All right, Christina, thanks so much. Want to get to Rick on bonds, a lot for the Treasury market to contend with this week, Rick. There was a lot of supply. And then, of course, you have the push-pull of inflation from oil

and meant some growth concerns. Yeah, I mean, it's getting it from all directions, which really makes today a fascinating session. Let's look at two-year versus crude oil prices, starting right before the conflict began on the 26th of February. And do note that we're up about 50 basis points since that Friday on the 27th close,

you'll see that little spike on the left side of the chart, that little V, that's the close, and we're up about 50 basis points. Now, let's go to a two-day chart, okay? Where the long-term correlated, over the last two days, two years have waved off crude oil. As a matter of fact, right now a two-year is down,

nine basis points on the day, and it is unchanged on the week. Let's look at twos and tens for the week. We see that 10 years up about five basis points on the week, but this is very interesting, because maybe it's disengaged from oil for a variety of reasons. One of them might be that the equity markets are paying such close attention to energy aspects, and they have been in the red. Maybe there's a little bit of flight to safety showing up in twos, but no matter how you slice it, delinking from that oil is an important dynamic,

especially occurring on a Friday. Mike, back to you. Yeah, that was absolutely a fascinating swerve over the course of the day. Rick, thanks very much. Well, stocks, of course, selling off as oil once again moves higher. Pippa Stevens has all the details for us. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Mike, WTI and Brent seeing their highest settle since July 2022

and turning positive on the week with the BTI retaking that $100 level, as Secretary Rubio reportedly told G7 ministers, the war will continue for another two to four weeks, that's according to Axios. Traders also on edge ahead of the weekend and don't want to be short given we've seen weekend escalations. Meantime at the pump, the national average holding at $3.98 per gallon,

and Americans have now spent $400 million more per day on gasoline since the war broke out, or $7.2 billion in total, that's according to GasBuddy. Gasoline future is adding another 3% today. Now, the energy sector is seeing a record 14th straight week of gains, but the moves are sub-sector-specific. The services names like Baker Hughes, Kinder Morgan, and SLB are lagging. They're less sensitive to the price of oil. Also, their operations have been impacted, and producers haven't meaningfully increased output.

The drillers and the refiners are the top performers in the last month with APA, Marathon, Marathon, Maraughan, Oxy, and Phillips 66, all up more than 20%. And Marathon, Valero, Exxon, and Chevron, and EQT as well, all hitting. record highs today. Mike? All right, Pippa, thanks so much. Well, news coming out of Washington, a major factor driving the markets. Let's get to Amon Javvers with the latest, Amen. Yeah, Mike, that's right. The big question is, how long is all this going to last? Well, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stopped to talk to reporters during a G7 foreign ministers meeting in France earlier today. And he gave an upbeat assessment of progress in the war in Iran and also said the United States needs to finish the job. Here's what he said.

The Department of War has consistently outlined we are on or ahead of schedule in that operation and expect to conclude it at the appropriate time here in a matter of weeks, not months, and the progress is going very well. Obviously, we have some work to do. We have to finish the job, and we are finishing that job. So you heard Rubio there saying weeks, not months. Rubio also said the United States would be done with the Iranians in, quote, the next couple of weeks. So, Mike, that gives you some insight into the administration's thinking on the timeline of the war.

Now, for his part, President Trump is on his way to Florida, where he's expected to give remarks to the Saudi-backed investment conference known as the future investment initiative this evening. We'll monitor that for any news as well. Back over to you. Yeah, Amon, I was trying to sync up the timing of when we got headlines of Secretary Rubio's comments in that direction and whether, in fact, the market spilled lower in response that was around in the middle of the day, I believe. It just feels like two to four weeks, if that was what the headline was. somewhat extends things beyond the total of four to six weeks. I know we're splitting hairs here, and nobody knows whether there's an actual plan or signal in it all, but it feels as if we're hinging on these hints.

Yeah, I mean, the administration initially said four to six weeks overall. We're going into the fifth week now, so you'd expect, you know, if that timetable was holding, you'd expect to sort of be in a wrap-up phase, and it just doesn't look like that, given the situation on the ground right now. But, you know, anything can change, Mike. There's so much about this we don't know, including what the options are for ground forces in Iran and whether that's the kind of thing that could break the logjam here or just make this much, much worse. So it's really difficult to predict.

And you see the administration trying to project confidence while not giving themselves, you know, a hard date that they have to live with. Yeah. And obviously, kind of testing the market's ability to deal with it all with composure. Amon, thank you very much. Talk to you again soon. Well, since the start of the Iran War, the major application. averages are now down more than 7% and all three below their key 200-day and 50-day moving averages and all three indices closed lower for their fifth straight week. So are we getting close to

some kind of a bottom? Joining me now is New Edge wealth chief investment officer. Cameron Dawson, Cameron, great to see you. Thank you for having me. You know, it's obviously not a yes, no question. It's a big matrix of signals here. But coming into the week, I know you were kind of looking at a lot of indicators and saying maybe close but not quite there or some things look extreme but not all. Are we at this so bad it's good point? Well, the good news is that on a daily basis, we are likely oversold after today's price action. You look at things like a daily RSI. You look at the percentage of names above their 50-day moving average. That would suggest that we've moved very far, very fast to the downside. We could see a short-term bounce. The caveat to

that is that we're not close to a longer-term oversold. So think weekly RSI, percentage of names above their 200-day moving average, or even things like 20-day lows or even put call ratios that suggest a kind of panic in the market, those quite haven't quite triggered yet. So we would say a short-term bounce, but there still could be some volatility. I think as I have been, you've been focused to some degree on the 2025 scenario and the market's interaction with the tariff shock and where we got to with the, you know, I noted this morning, as of this date last year, the S&P was down almost exactly the same amount from its high. And as it happened last year, we were only halfway to the low because

we got the liberation day shock a few days later. Not to suggest we have to follow the same path, but in terms of what the market's looking for and how it prices itself in relation to those things. Well, we'd say the one thing is that we think that the ultimate low potentially of this correction could be the pre-liberation day high, that 6,100, 6,200 kind of level. But I think the key difference between today and liberation day is that during liberation day in the lead-up to it, people were aggressively cutting their estimates for both GDP and earnings. So now we're in a scenario where people have seemed to wizened up. They say, we're not going to cut our estimates because we're just going to have to raise them. And in fact, you've actually seen earnings estimates

go up. So in some ways, there's a sense of complacency in this market where we're not pricing in even an ounce or a smidge of any kind of downside to the U.S. economy from this energy price shock. Though I do know, and we talked about this earlier as well, which is a lot of the source of the upside to earnings forecast is coming from semiconductors, which we know is downstream of the wild cap-ex spending that we've heard is going to happen from the hyperscalers and then, of course, energy earnings. But I guess your point is we're kind of giving credit for that, but not assigning any cost to it for the rest of the index. Yeah, and it's a good reminder that Invidio alone is more than double the weight of the entire energy sector in the SIP 500. But even if you're

you look at the equal weight earnings estimates, those have hockey sticked higher as well. And so that suggests to us the analysts remain very sanguine about what this will ultimately impact overall corporate earnings power, because if the average stock is seeing its earnings revised higher, that means that it's not just AI. It's good to remember, earnings will always peak after the market peaks. They are a very lagging indicator. So we could be in an environment where you're seeing these revisions higher, and yet you're seeing all the weakness within valuation compression and valuations for something like semiconductors have fallen by 30% in the last three months. And I noted S&P 500 based on the 12-month forward estimates actually ducked below 20 today or yesterday.

Not to say that's cheap historically, but it's sort of the lower end of the multi-year range except for Liberation Day. And we bottomed at 18 times during Liberation Day. Now, if you go back to 2022, we bottom closer to about 15 and a half times forward. So for us, it really is the idea that you've really derated this market in a material way. Growth stocks have probably derated the most. If you look at technology stocks, it's not just semiconductors, but software as well. And so those names have actually undercut their valuations from Liberation Day

and are just two multiple turns above where they were in 2022. So assuming we can extrapolate the current earnings power, maybe there's some value that's starting to emerge in pockets of the ticket. I was going to say that. I mean, I guess if you're going to spend this little, panic moment, even if it's not full panic, figuring out what you'd prefer to own or how your portfolio should look coming out of this, where does that take you? Yeah, I think some of the challenges that just blindly buying an area like software ignores that there are going to be areas of that

portion of the market that will be significantly disrupted. But if you look at the degree of the downside and how correlated all those stocks have been, it's likely that we are throwing the baby out with the bathwater. So it's a great opportunity to be sharpening the pencils to say, what are the areas that will be more immune to something like AI disruption and are on sale, not just because of AI fears, but also because of these warfeard. Everything seems sensitive to just exactly how long the higher for longer is for rates and for oil, obviously. Oh, 100%. And if we look at the rate story, obviously across the curve, there are challenges. You have a 10-year yield at 4.44%, terrible for the housing market. You have a two-year yield that's now above the Fed Funds rate,

which suggests a tighter-fed liquidity policy that we get out of the central bank. And it just suggests that the bond market is no longer the tailwind that it was over the last three years. Although, as we were just talking, Tuesday came in today, and we'll see if that's a real shift or not. Cameron, great to talk to you. Thank you very much. All right, Meta and Google both hit hard this week on adverse legal decisions. Up next, we'll talk to an analyst who says this week's drop is a chance to buy Google at a discount. An investor shouldn't worry about the case outcome.

She'll make her case. You're watching Closing Bell Overtime Live from the NASDAQ market. Welcome back. Shears of Entergy at an all-time high today. The company saying it expanded a power supply contract with Mehta for Mehta's data in Louisiana. Entergy says it will build seven natural gas facilities at Mehta's expense. Meta stock having another down day, though, off 4% and down nearly 20% in March, the second worst stock in the NASDAQ 100 over that span. Well, Meadow is not the only Mag 7 named to see big. losses recently. Alphabet is down 8% in the past five days. That's its worst week in more than a year after being found liable in the social media addiction trial. Our next guy says the weakness related to the ruling is an opportunity to buy the stock. Joining me now is Laura Martin from Needham. Laura, great to have you on here. So why should we look on the bright side here from this legal loss? So I think what's important to note is, A, this is not a 230 restriction where they're going to get liability for content creation. This is about the addictiveness of algorithms. meaning they best practiced it for algorithms.

And it only relates to kids under 18, which is less than 10% of YouTube users. And it wasn't a search suit. It's a YouTube suit. So 5% of the monetization of YouTube and less than 10% of their audience is covered. So if there was no behavioral remedies in this decision. But if they had to make them, if they had to ring fence minors, like that would affect less than 5% of their revenue. Secondly, kids will just lie about their age and say they're 23.

So kids can get around this. But anyway, moving on, I think this is a lousy deal for the lawyers who would prosecute, meaning they filed this lawsuit around one plaintiff, their best case plaintiff, with the best set of circumstances. They got $3 million awarded by the jury plus $3 million impunitive damages, which meant $6 million for this one best case plaintiff, which then sets up the settlement because these guys, Google says it's going to appeal. which means we're going to be another two years.

And this started in 2022, and the lawyers only get 40% of the profits. So right now, they just made $2 million. They've probably spent $10. They're not going to get a penny until they go through the appeals process, which may overturn this. So in which case, your settlements are going to pay for all those other thousands. They're not going to want to go to trial. They're going to be in the hundreds of thousands each. And these are a trillion-dollar companies, both meta and Google.

So I just think, and like I said, it doesn't threaten their main revenue. It doesn't threaten the YouTube algorithm. It doesn't threaten really the monetization of YouTube meaningfully. That seems reassuring if you're an alphabet investor if, in fact, the recent weakness is largely about concern over the legal situation. Do you get the sense that's the case? Obviously, the whole market's down, and, you know, people are concerned about one thing or another around AI and spending.

But to what degree do your clients think the legal issues are material? So I would say of the 8% decline you just brought up, 2% is related. to the legal because it's just happened in the last two days. And the other 6% is market risk, but also I think Wall Street has putting a limit on these hyperscalers spending $180 billion, meaning in that 180 that Google, that Alphabet says it's spending this year, they're doing quantum, which is 10 years from now, follows Jet AI. We don't want them doing that. We don't want them losing money on Waymo. We want to push back. And you see meta here, sort of cutting a lot of metaverse people. We don't want these companies spending anything on

something that has a lower cost or return on capital than Gen A.I. We don't want them to just do an extra $50 billion because they can. So we're starting to mark down their stocks because we want to put a limit on these people's capital spending and making sure it's really targeted at the highest return on capital for the CAPEX they're doing. Bigger picture, I wondered about this for a long time. And I know it's a moving target in terms of the estimates. But how much of alphabets value do you think you can assign to YouTube in general? Good. So we value. every single quarter, every time they release, and we get between 20 and 25 percent of Alphabet's total value is YouTube, and if it was spun off separately, if it's part of that bundle,

people don't buy Google, they don't buy Alphabet because of YouTube, so it gets pulled down by the multiple of search. But if it was independently traded, we think it would trade at a 40% discount to where it's valued within Google, which would be 20 to 25% of Alphabet's total value. So, obviously, plenty worth paying a lot of attention to. On Meta, Obviously, it looks cheaper. It's been hit harder. It doesn't have as clear a path to monetize probably on its AI spending. But what's your stance on that one?

So we have a hold here for three key reasons and not having to do with the lawsuit, although the lawsuit was worse for them. So they're getting hurt worse because 70% of the $6 million was allocated to Instagram, meta, and only 30% to you to Google. But what I would say is, A, strategy diffusion. That guy, the CEO there is just doing too many things. all cost way too much money and they're all losing money. So you see he's laying off hundreds of people today in the Metaverse and he changed his name for the Metaverse. So basically,

and we hate the fact he's losing $6 billion a year on reality labs when he's trying to keep up with Amazon and Google spending, he's going to spend 140 on CapEx. He's paying his people of fortune. I don't know if you saw Share Grants, Target, you know, he's got a $500 stock price. He's issuing share grants at $3,200 a share. That's up 5x from today. to his top six people. So the share grants are the average employee across all of his employees, 70,000 employees, makes $250,000 a year in their stock option grants. So that's diluted if the stars start working. That becomes a headwind of public shareholders. And he's doing off balance sheet financings. And all of us are scared of those because of Enron. All those special purpose

vehicles. Remember those horrible things that took down Arthur Anderson and Enron? He's doing those at Meta to try to sort of hide his cap-back so it's not on the balance sheet. all bad. Yeah, all right. Well, you articulate well, why there's suspicion around the capital allocation strategy at Mattelora. Good to talk to you. Thank you. Thank you. Or Martin from Needham. Airline stocks falling once again today. Two big issues plaguing those names. One of those, however, may be nearing a resolution. Those details coming up on overtime. Welcome back to overtime. It was another rough day for the airlines. United American Southwest, all down at least four percent as investors consider the impact.

of high jet fuel prices and as the Iran war drags on. Since the war began, those stocks of each lost 15% or more of their value. President Trump this afternoon ordering the Homeland Security Secretary to pay TSA agents in an effort to alleviate the long lines that we're seeing at airports around the country. Emily Wilkins has the latest. Hi, Emily. Hey, Mike. Well, yes, we've got President Trump now following through on what he said yesterday as far as paying TSA agents. In the middle, of course, what is about, to become the longest government partial shutdown to date.

We'll only need a few more days on that one. And it's looking like they will make that record. You know, we started off very early this morning with the Senate moving legislation, but now we are hearing from the House, including Speaker Mike Johnson, saying that the bill cannot go forward as is slamming the Senate for allowing a bill to pass that doesn't include funding for all of ICE, and instead putting forward a measure that would temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security until May 22nd. Now, the House is currently in the process of moving forward on that bill,

but it isn't likely to get any Democratic support in the House where it can still pass or in the Senate. And that's, of course, the problem. Anything the House sends over to the Senate at this point would need to have bipartisan support, would need to get 60 vote. And the Senate is out of town. So it is really unclear, even if the House does wind up passing something to fund the Department of Homeland Security in the next few days, exactly when that's actually going to, get through the whole process and make it to the president's desk. So a lot of confusion, I think, right now on Capitol Hill as far as what next steps are really going to be and how this actually fully gets resolved. What's the mechanism, Emily, by which by executive order,

TSA agents can be paid? Is that something that we know? So we know that when we remember that President Trump did this a little bit in the last government shutdown. Remember, there were times where the military wasn't going to get paid. Certain programs weren't going to be funded. And Trump was able to, through executive orders, through moving funds around, find ways to cover those paychecks and those programs. And by doing so, he does take some pressure off of Congress. He gives them a little bit more breathing room to try to figure out a way forward. But it's important to remember that while TSA lines might be the area that Americans are feeling most pain with this shutdown, there are plenty of other agencies that are going

without funding. FEMA's going without funding, the Coast Guard, the division that oversees cyber security threats. None of those are being funded right now. And unlike ICE and Customs and Border Patrol, they did not get a huge influx of funding in that Trump megabill

that passed last year. And that's been a concern for a lot of lawmakers that those agencies could be going for weeks, maybe even longer, without getting the funds that they need. Right. And that's, of course, not the source of the dispute in the first place. those other parts of Homeland Security. Emily, thank you very much for the update.

Time for CNBC News Update now with McKenzie Sagalows. Max. Hey, Mike. The Iranian ambassadors to the United Nations said today that Iran has agreed to, quote, facilitate and expedite humanitarian aid through the Strait of Hormuz. He said the move was granted at the request of the U.N. The announcement came hours after Israel claimed responsibility for striking two nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate. Republicans in Missouri won a redistricting victory today after a judge allowed a President Trump-back district map to be used ahead of the midterms. But there is still the potential for a voter referendum on the new map after opponents gathered more than 300,000 signatures in an effort to get the matter before voters. And Tiger Woods involved in a rollover crash today on Jupiter Island in Florida.

That's according to the Martin County Sheriff who says the crash occurred around 2 p.m. Eastern on a street. in the town where he lives. No other details were available, but the sheriff says he will provide an update at 5 p.m. Eastern time. Mike, back to you. McKenzie, thank you. Well, today's drop in, the Dow means

it's now more than 10% off its recent high. The NASDAQ, down 12%, the S&P 500, holding up the best, still down 9% from its peak. So are those declines assigned at even more selling ahead? Overtime. We'll be right back. Welcome back to closing bell overtime,

live from the NASDAQ market site. The Dow today losing nearly 800 points. The NASDAQ, the biggest loser, closing down more than 2%. Both of those indexes now down 10% from their recent highs. For the week, the S&P 500 losing more than 2%. That is its fifth straight down week, the longest weekly losing streak in four years. And the Russell, managing to eke out a small gain. So let's stay with the market. Our next guest says equities remain on downgrade watch for him, and the key will be whether this war heads into April. Joining me now is 314 research co-founder, Warren Pyes. Warren, good to see.

April's coming fast. Obviously, it's next Wednesday, I guess. A week ago, you thought maybe you'd give it a week to see if we get de-escalation, the taco trade. So explain the thinking now. Yeah, thank you for having me. I think we've, just like everybody, you know, maybe we all learned the wrong lesson from last year, which is to just to weigh and expect a capitulation and look for that.

off ramp in one of these kind of self-induced market sell-offs. But I think it's been prudent to wait and to let technicals guide you in this, but we are getting to the point where the rubber meets the road. I think it's the, I do think there are signs that this, this selloff is starting to move into the second phase, which is where investors are seeing that this is not a short-lived conflict. You're seeing the back end of the crude curve start to reflect a longer time-elevated crude oil prices. And you're seeing some cost-asset moves.

You're seeing gold rally. You're seeing the two-year yields drop in the face of oil rallying in the stock market falling today. That's the first, I think, warning sign that the market's going to start looking through the inflationary first early impacts of this into the recessionary consequences. Yeah, that for sure. You saw you highlight that today, which was significant, that there was a bit of a switch from from how this thing has traded for the past few weeks. You know, at the same time, he said, let the technicals guide you. I mean, we keep waiting for this kind of, people say whether we need some kind of a real flush,

some kind of comprehensive liquidation. You see a lot of stocks trading at their lows. You know, it feels like it sometimes does when you have some of that climactic action, but maybe not everything lined up. Yeah, I don't think it's there yet to be. be honest. I wish I could say that. But what we're, knowing the oil market like I do, like we're looking down the barrel at a very, very serious situation. Now, if this last like Rubio's comments to the G7 today was, hey, two to four more weeks. If this last four weeks, you know, the S&P 500 is going

into a bear market. Oil will be at $150 a barrel. You know, that's, there will be shortages. I'm not trying to be an alarmist, but this is just, you need to be so reminded about what you're facing down. And I don't see sentiment reflecting that yet. We look at like managed money, or we look at a inverse ETF volume. That's, it's a lake where you'd expect to be for a run-of-the-mill pullback and things like that. But I don't see the real fear and panic. And the levels that we're talking about, we moved in this consolidation range where we lost momentum back in February. That's when we initially downgraded stocks.

And we basically said, okay, we want to see this range resolve. And that range was 6538 on the downside, 6900 on the upside. We broke through 6538. We're waiting to get some good closes, a weekly close below that. So I think you should expect the momentum to accelerate to the downside from here based on technical as the sentiment to make. Yeah, I mean, you've made the point when it comes to oil. It's sort of a cumulative effect to some degree. We have this daily shortfall.

We're kind of burning through reserves and, you know, releases and there's some, I guess, rationing going on. But how does that snowball if we go two to four weeks? Yeah. Yeah, so to me, and we talked about this a week ago, so every day, I would say just as a good rough estimate, and this includes the SPR release, this includes the bypass pipeline to the Red Sea from the East-West pipeline. There's still a 10 million barrel a day hole in the market every day, and that's with all the best assumptions I can possibly make.

If we roll that forward one month, that's 300 million barrels that we lost. We can already see it's gone on the water. The water excess inventories are gone. Now we're cutting into onshore excess inventories. As we roll into April, you're going to draw below what we would consider excess. And then you move into, even if we get a resolution to the war and we open the Strait of Hormuz back up, you still have time to get production and lost refinery capacity back online. This tells me that best case scenarios, we're going to lose 600 million barrels of inventory out of global inventories.

That's about an 8 billion barrel storage globally. That's a huge number. That's more than we've ever seen in any calendar year on record. So that's in two months. That's like we're changing the shape of the oil market in real time in a short two-month window, never seen anything like it before. So I guess where would you reach for some kind of insulation against the market impact of all that? we're recommending to our clients looking out not in the very front part of the Brent curve but like August, say the August contract for Brent crew features.

I think you have like maybe $10 a downside that yesterday when we were talking to clients about that, it was trading about $90.91 a barrel. I think even if you get a resolution of all this, this might drop back to $80 a barrel. But if this really presses forward to the timeline that we're hearing from Rubio and some of the others and some of the whispers and what's starting to kind of close in on us through April, that contract's probably going to $150 a barrel. So you have $60 of upside and $10 of downside. That's a very good hedge. Everything's getting driven by the crude oil market. And so that's what we're doing right now. And then really quickly, based on what we were

talking about earlier, where you started to see a little bit of the response in buying at the short end in terms of treasuries, you know, will bonds start to do their job here as defense? I think so. I don't think it's really. realistic. Like right now we have about a half of Fed hike priced in the market. It doesn't make any sense to me. I think gold is going to be the first to move. And because really, when gold sells off, why does gold sell off? It's because the Fed relative to the economic reality is tightening. So the Fed is not cutting anymore. The economic reality is actually tightening her with the oil market, oil price rising. So to me, I think bonds are going to start getting a bit here. Yeah, for sure. Hey, Warren, I really appreciate it. Have a good weekend. Warren. Thank you, too.

All right, Apple, the only Mac 7 stock to end in the green this week. Up next, we'll hear from an analyst who thinks Apple is a safe haven during this ongoing market turmoil. And as we head to a break, here's a look at some notable names hitting 52 week lows and include Nike trading at its lowest level in nearly nine years, as well as Visa, DoorDash, Lulu Lemon, and Dominance. Welcome back to overtime. Cruise stocks hitting rough waters today.

Carnival beating first quarter earnings estimates, but cutting its full year guidance because of, higher fuel costs as a result of the war in Iran. Well, Caribbean, Norwegian, and Viking, all falling in sympathy, all of them down between four and seven percent. So as investors seek out some relief amid this market volatility, they may be turning to Apple. It's the only Mag 7 name closing higher on the week, snapping a four-week losing streak, and it's the best performing MagS7 name this year. So is this a place to hide in the tech space? Joining me now is Mark Neumann from Bernstein. Mark, it's good to see you. And this happens from time to time.

Apple kind of wins this status as a bit of a haven here. The balance sheet, of course, it's not a huge cap-expender. It's steady, almost consumer staple-type profile. You think that makes sense here? And I guess there are there other reasons that you're recommending it? Yeah, I mean, it's a stable, more defensive name. And part of the reason for that really is they never had this big upside from the AI boom that some of the other Mac 7 have had.

And so when you hear about there's the fears of the AI bubble bursting, Apple tends to do pretty well on those days. It's very much more insulated from these AI fears. And I think similarly, just due to its valuation, its constant EPS growth and free cash flow growth, and its ability to constantly compound its EPS and free cash flow, is generally a pretty safe haven when you're seeing fears in the market like we are today. So, you know, we like it. We think, actually, it's not that expensive anymore. People have thought about it being very expensive. On our numbers, it's 24 times FY27 earnings. So it actually doesn't look that expensive anymore. Sure. And then there's a, I guess, a line of thinking that, you know, whatever consumer AI becomes, it's going to be delivered

through devices like iPhones and, you know, maybe some enthusiasm about it being a way. And, you know, the gateway to Google in that respect. So does that filter into your expectations for iPhone performance? Yeah, it does. I mean, I think for Apple, what's remarkable is it's rumored that they're spending a billion dollars a year to get access to the Google Gemini model. They're only spending $14 billion a year in CAPX. And yet how much is Google spending on CAPX as over $100 billion?

So their spending is much more prugal. They're essentially getting, we think, a bargain for access to the latest and greatest models. We think they're going to be able to monetize that. So it really truly is a gateway to 1.5 billion of the most lucrative customers on earth, which is why I think Google has given them this pretty sweet deal. And so we think they can monetize it in terms of acceleration. of the placement rate for phones,

but also on the services side, we see a lot of upside from AI as well. And then I know you had some thoughts about its pricing strategy, creating some lower price products on the laptop as well as the phone side as a way of maybe defending some market share? Yeah, I think what you can see from the launch week, which was a couple weeks ago right now, is they've been very aggressive on the low-end price points.

So the 17E, they're sticking to the 599, which is the lowest price point they've had, they've got, they've got, despite rising prices, rising costs of memory. Plus, in the high end, they're going higher. So MacBook Neo, also in the low end, very surprisingly low 599 price point, but the high end prices going even higher. So I think what they're doing is they're trying to be more aggressive in the more main market to go over get some share, get some volume share, where their competitors are going to be struggling to compete because a lot of their customers do not have access to the memory

supply that Apple has. And so they're going to be short. Apple has plenty. And then at the same time, try to protect margins by increasing prices at the high end. So I think it's going to help them, I think, gain share, which should be long-term beneficial for the service. business as well. Yeah, interesting. So pressing that advantage. Mark Newman, Bernstein, appreciate the time today. Thank you. Thanks very much. The S&P 500 is now on a five-week losing streak up next. A longtime market strategist weighs in on whether a comeback could be in the cards for Wall Street. Welcome back to overtime. The S&P 500 down 2% on the week and down 7% since the Iran War began, down 9% from its peak earlier this year. So should we expect this downturn to

continue as we head into a shortened trading week next week. Joining me now is Bob Dole from Crossmark Global Investments. Bob, it's great to see you. We've seen a lot of these over the years. This is the, you know, if we get on 10% in the S&P, it's the fourth out of five years. You've had a 10 to 20% decline. How does this one look and feel to you in terms of whether we can expect it to end soon? Well, happy Friday, Mike.

The answer to that question, I think, has a lot to do with how long will oil be near $100 a barrel? how long would the straight be closed? If we can get past that, we can go back to, gee, before the war, the U.S. and global economy was doing just fine, thank you. Yeah, we saw a little weakness here and there, but the underlying economy pretty good. This thing has to end soon before we do damage to that. If we do damage, then it's going to be hard to salvage an up year, my friend. Yeah, we've been talking about the mixed signals and just the tricky aspect of how markets are supposed. supposed to look at the interplay between inflationary threats, what it means for growth.

Bomb market has sort of been confused. Maybe there was a turn to pricing in more of a growth risk right now. How does that shake out for you? Look, I think the, back to what I said, if it ends soon, growth will be okay, but the worry has to be inflation. We got a PPI number, as you know, recording information before the war started. It was not good at all. Now you add this to it. underlying inflation is concerning. You round the current inflation numbers. They don't round down to two. They round up to four.

And that's not tolerable. The yield curves, Fed Fund Futures curves, and other short-term curves, had a cut price in not that many weeks ago. And now lots of curves say, oh, maybe the next moves up. I sure hope that's not the case. But we're not going to get a lot of relief, and that's going to bother people. I guess, you know, we can sort of take some comfort as prices come down. In theory, fundamental risk comes down as well, right? I mean, valuations, get compression, go back in time. Here we've had great earnings growth, projected good earnings, and yet we're back in the S&P to prices we first got to

back in the summer of last year. What does that tell you to do, if anything, with a portfolio? Well, it tells you that if and when this war ends, the fact that the stock market is down 9% from its high, but the PE is down 16%. Yes, because the price drop, but also because earnings estimates are moving up. Look, we still have, if I want to be a bull, we still have a monetary set of tailwinds, fiscal tailwinds, productivity tailwinds, and that's why estimates are still double-digit percentage gain this year. Look, I think a lot of analysts are waiting for first quarter earnings and management comments to figure out what do I need to do with my estimates? So estimate changes of late have all been to the upside for the energy sector.

Most other things are just sitting there. So earnings are going to absolutely key. Another reason we've got to end this thing soon. And what about bonds? I mean, right now, we're talking about 4.4 theirabouts on tens? Yeah, I think the fact that inflation has become a bit of a problem makes the bond bulls have to come up with another story. Coming into the year, we expected the tenure to oscillate between the high threes and the mid-fours. Of course, we're bumping up against that now, but that was

when inflation was pretty benign. So I'm not sure the bond markets are great buy here. All right, yeah, a lot of people not sure, especially at the long end. We did see some looseness in trading this week in terms of longer-term treasuries. Bob Dole, really appreciate it. Thanks very much. As we mentioned, we do have a four-day trading week next week on Good Friday. When the stock market's closed, we're also going to get a non-farm payroll report. It's going to be plenty to contend with as we see if the market can find some footing after a very weak, five-week stretch. That does it for overtime.