Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 7/14/25

Episode Date: July 14, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

That Bell marks the end of regulation. Lincoln Financial ringing the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Artiva Biotherapeutics doing the honors at the NASDAQ and stocks higher but just a bit. All the major averages with small gains. Good enough though for a record close for the NASDAQ. Bitcoin a strong story today,

rocketing to a record of 123,000 before pulling back a bit so far. More on Bitcoin's rise and crypto week coming up. Communication services among the top S&P sectors. Warner Brothers Discovery higher back a bit so far, more on Bitcoin's rise and crypto week coming up. Communication services among the top S&P sectors, Warner Brothers Discovery, higher after a kryptonite free weekend for Superman. Energy the worst group, accidental petroleum out with guidance this morning saying lower production and falling oil prices could hit second quarter earnings.

And Procter & Gamble falling to its lowest level since early last year after a downgrade from Evercore. The analysts saying P&G is losing ground in online sales, particularly on Amazon. That's a score caught on Wall Street, but winners stay late. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm John Fort. Morgan Brennan is off today. Ahead, we're getting you ready for the market's next catalyst, earnings.

Many of the biggest banks reporting tomorrow and Wednesday. We're going to talk to an analyst about their prospects, and it's not just banks. Tim Seymour will be here to break down some of the other big names reporting this week. Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and 3M will all do out, but we can't forget about tariffs, even though we might want to. As the president making more pronouncements from the Oval Office today, including 100% tariffs for any country doing business with Russia.

Former Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez about to join us with analysis there. But let's begin with those latest comments from the president on tariffs. Megan Kasella is live at the White House. Megan. Hey, John. So the question that everybody wants to know the answer to at this point is with all of these latest tariff threats set to take effect on August 1st, are they actually going to go into effect then or are they simply still a negotiating tactic?

Here's what the president had to say on that point in the Oval Office earlier today. The deals are already made. The letters are the deals. The deals are made. There are no deals to make. They would like to do a different kind of a deal, and we're always open to talk. We are open to talk, including to Europe. So the letters are the deals, and those are done.

But if the president hears something that he likes between now and August 1st, he's still listening and open to striking some sort of a different deal. And then, John, you just mentioned this at the top, but the other piece of news from the president on tariffs today was those secondary sanctions against Russia. This is the idea that it would be a tariff of about 100% on any country continuing to do business with Russia unless Vladimir Putin agrees to some sort of a ceasefire deal within the next 50 days. That would be September 1st.

So think about countries like China, like India, they continue to be the largest importers of Russian oil. If these move forward, but again, we have 50 days to wait, those would be the biggest targets on the list. John? Interesting, Megan, and I do remember that the president is a bit sensitive to the idea that he's not serious about these tariff levels that he's setting. Is there any context coming out of the White House about exactly how serious he is this time about these levels if he doesn't get

exactly what he wants? He is very sensitive to that, and I do think that's important context just because at a certain point, if you keep kicking the can down the road, you lose the leverage and the president loves having the leverage. That's why he keeps this uncertainty up. But everything we're hearing publicly from these officials, including the president, is that they want things to be, to remain sort of up in the air. Kevin Hassett was talking about it today.

He sort of said, we'll see where the dust settles. It's up to the president, the president himself saying he still wants, he's still listening at least to countries. And I think his quote from yesterday was, maybe I'll change the deals. Maybe I won't. So they're keeping it very uncertain and that's all by design. But I do think at a certain point, a president who never follows through

would lose his leverage and this president does not want to lose that. Clearly, Megan Casella on top of it as always, thank you. So what do these latest tariff developments mean for the markets? Are investors discounting these continuing tariff battles too much? Joining me now is Deutsche Bank private bank CIO Deepak Puri and Morgan Stanley Managing

Director Dan Skelly. Guys, welcome. Deepak, what do you think? I mean, the president seems determined to show that it's not just bluster. Is the market taking that for granted? I think to an extent, yes, John. I think the key difference today is that the president has some wins behind his back. With the one big beautiful bill behind, with the, you know, some domestic wins, some foreign affairs win. I think the stock market is near all-time high. I think he is, he can take this aggressive posture with regards to the tariffs. I do believe that, as he said, he's open for negotiations.

And I do think even though the average tariff for imported goods has probably gone up to mid-teens, it is still negotiated. Our base case is that you're going to see somewhat lower than where we are today. So 12 to 13%, which is not too far off from where we were, let's say, April 9th. Dan, you feel that the major averages here in the US are, and maybe they've seen the best that they're gonna see, at least for the summer.

Is the same true of international markets with the tariff uncertainty or are there bets you can make? John, there's certain select opportunities internationally, particularly in parts of EM, India in particular, which has less tariff-related exposure and a decent growth story, and then Japan as well, mostly on the domestic side, related to financials that are benefiting from higher rates and higher inflation. But there are certain areas outside of those particular ones mentioned, like Europe, that are actually seeing earnings downgrades after what has been a very strong rally.

So we would be more selective internationally, John. Okay. Deepak, you expect four rate cuts from the Fed over the next 11 months or so. There's also this, you also this question mark out there about what the Trump administration is trying to do with Powell when it comes to this renovation and perhaps setting up a case to fire him for cause. Does that solidify your expectation of four cuts

if there's some intrigue there and who's leading the Fed or no? It's regardless of who is at the helm of the Fed, those four rate cuts, and we expect the first one to, you know, rate cut to be in the fourth quarter, most likely. I think you have to take into account that, you know, we are running dual deficits right now.

You know, our budget deficit is around 7%, our current account deficit around 5% to 6%. I think we can ill afford to have this question of Fed independence because that's something that we cannot ill afford to have foreign buyers question U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar denominated assets. So my thinking is that I think, as in previous instances, the president is gonna say and nominate

a Fed share come September, but nothing more than that. And I think that's going to be the narrative for the Fed for the next few months. Dan, given that you have this expectation that 2026 could be exciting, how much dry powder should investors have waiting sort of on the sidelines? Is there some level of that that they should be putting aside now, even expecting that there won't be too much excitement over the next several months, but next year could be a different story? It's a really important point, John, and I'll say two things.

So first, to your question, our main message on U.S. markets at this level is curb your enthusiasm. Right? If you had the insight that tariffs were negotiable back in 5,000 in April and the fortitude to hold on to your equity positions and remain fully invested, you have now benefited from almost a 30 percent rally, one of the fastest recoveries to new all-time highs after a 10 percent drawdown in history. And what we would tell people to your question is, if you were able to hang on and now your

equity exposure has maybe gone in excess of your asset allocation plan, this is actually an okay time to trim and rebalance back to normal. We do think the summer months are going to have way more volatility ahead of learning more about tariff clarity, ahead of more potential liquidity challenges with the TGA being refilled. And so yes, we do see a volatile summer ahead of recovery next year. Alright, more of a pruning, not cutting, but pruning, getting ready for growth in the future. That's right, surgical. Yes, thanks to you both. Well, meantime, Bitcoin jumping to an all-time high today.

Right now, trading around $120,000 per Bitcoin. Joining me now to explain this move and the optimism around crypto week is our Mackenzie Segalos. Mackenzie. Hey, John. So even with a bit of profit taking, Bitcoin is still trading at double its level from a year ago, and Ether actually outpacing it this week, up about 20% and holding that key $3,000 threshold. The strength is broad based with all coins like Solana and XRP gaining ground.

Now part of the move is technical. US Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.7 billion last week, and with options expiring and short sellers squeezed, the runways clear for more upside. Open interest in Bitcoin futures just hit a record above 86 billion dollars according to CoinGlass and Ethereum open interest is near record highs as well. Both are a sign of real conviction. And now there's a policy tailwind. It's crypto week on Capitol Hill with the house weighing three bills. One to regulate stable coins, another to draw the line between commodities and securities, potentially further loosening the SEC's grip, and then a third to ban a Fed-issued digital

dollar. Now, that market structure bill could finally bring the regulatory clarity that Wall Street's been waiting for, and markets are racing to price it in. John? McKenzie, I can't help but wonder to what extent Bitcoin, the crypto trade overall is a bit of a proxy for belief in the Trump administration and GOP economy. If you look at a chart over the past year, it really did take a dip into April and

then sort of rally later. And now at those all time highs, I wonder if there's any chatter out there in the crypto community about the extent to which this is crypto is moving along with the GOP agenda. Absolutely, I mean, you have only to look at the upside that we're seeing, pegged to what's going on in Capitol Hill this week to see that.

And part of that is because until now, asset managers, banks, and trading platforms have mostly stayed out of crypto because the SEC kept suing over what counts as a security versus a commodity. And the Clarity Act, which is being considered this week by the House, directly addresses that. It defines who regulates what,

giving the CFTC jurisdiction over digital commodities like Bitcoin and possibly Ether, while narrowing what counts as a security under the SEC's domain. And that's the kind of legal line that compliance teams have been begging for. And that's why you're seeing a lot of upside and so much momentum going into this week specifically. All right, Mack.

Thanks, Mackenzie Segalos. Well, the NASDAQ once again hitting an all time high despite President Trump's tough tariff talk Will the August 1st deadline for deals hold or will we see the president push it back? Once again We're gonna ask for more commerce secretary Carlos Gutierrez plus the Chinese company that became Apple's rival with its phone is now coming for Tesla got that story ahead over times back in two Welcome back to overtime shares of synopsys slightly lower and SysGaining. As the companies say, they have received

all necessary approvals to close their deal. Chinese regulators okaying the deal. Some final conditions included honoring existing contract terms with Chinese clients and not refusing renewal requests of those clients. That means the $35 billion deal, which will bring new modeling and simulation capabilities to Synopsys, can close this week.

Now let's take a global view again. As we mentioned, the president announcing tariffs on the EU and Mexico this weekend, but not many of the letters he has sent or the threats he has made have translated yet into signed deals. Joining me now to discuss is Carlos Gutierrez, former Commerce Secretary and former Kellogg CEO. He's currently Executive Chairman at MPATH

and a CNBC contributor. Carlos, Secretary, welcome. What do you make particularly of this latest move regarding Russia, the 100% tariff threat on anyone continuing to do business with them if a ceasefire does not take effect, and I believe it's 40 days. Yeah, I think it's a little over that, but yeah, this is probably the most difficult type of tariff or sanction to put on because it's extraterritoriality.

So we're prohibiting countries from doing business with China, with Russia, which is something that really creates resentment and a great deal of backlash. Countries usually find a way of going around these sanctions. China often will say, I'm not going to abide to that. India, so it's a tough type of sanction to do. It's not something the president has done a lot of, just Venezuela and oil. So we'll have to see. It's a long way away, but you know, a ceasefire is a big hurdle. So, you know, it's a big move. So what signal should investors take

from that? Just the general idea that the president's determined to do something here, or that the president is Making motions toward doing something but it's something that's not actually probably going to happen I would say in this instance with Russia it is an example of the president using tariffs Using sanctions as a negotiating tool. I don't think the president wants to put sanctions on Russia. If he did, he would have done so yesterday. But so, and 100 percent, you know, this is a negotiation level. So I believe, yes, I believe this is a tactic.

I believe he wants to find a way of reaching a deal with Russia. But I don't think this is going to be something permanent. Why do you think there haven't been more trade deals yet? Well, it's tough. You know, it's, on one hand, they take a long time. You know, a typical trade deal will take 12 to 18 months with one country. We're trying to do deals with 12 countries.

I do believe that what the president is looking for are term sheets, frameworks, you know, conceptual deals where we have a deal to continue to negotiate, and then the specter of tariffs is leaning over that negotiation. I think that is what will get us across August 1. I hope we'll see quite a few deals. I don't think we'll see all of them. So it is a possibility that some countries will receive tariffs as of

August 1. How much do you think the performance of the U.S. economy through a year and will factor into what kinds of deals actually end up getting done? Yeah, I think that's a good question. You know, up until now, the president has walked a tightrope and he's been able to use tariffs, threatened with tariffs, and the U.S. economy has held still. We'll see tomorrow what happens if inflation is up. So that will be something that is a consistent signal that the president will look at.

Although I don't think he will back away totally from tariffs, but yes, as time goes by and these tariffs begin to show up in the economy, I'm sure that will temper him. It doesn't mean he'll walk away from them, but I'm sure it will. And it seems the Fed and the markets play into that as well, as different as they are from the economy in general, the Fed's intentions when it comes to interest rates affect not only the markets, but eventually people's freedom to spend certainly where credit is concerned,

should we expect as well as the economy shifts toward the end of the year that the president will have that in mind as he considers these tariff negotiations? Sure, you know what's been happening is on one hand exporters are paying a little bit more than we expected. Exporters are eating part of the tariff. And then there's a lot of forward buying going. You think copper, for example, which at this point is just a threat. You know, importers have forward bought four or five months. At least they've ordered four or five months. So that's keeping inflation in the pipeline away from the market.

I think that's happening across industries. With time, we will see that inching up. Time is the president's enemy here. It is the level of tariff, but importantly, it's how long they last. And the more time goes on, the worse it is. So this is the tightrope the president's walking. I believe he wants some good frameworks before August 1, although I don't think there will be frameworks

with everyone. I believe the European Union is probably the toughest. So we may see some tariffs go on the European Union. All right. Yeah, you've given us the factors to watch. We appreciate the expertise. Secretary Gutierrez, thank you. Good to see you, John.

Good to see you. Well. Good to see you. Well, check out the dividend yields of the five biggest companies in the market right now. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Google's parent, none of them even pays 1%. Nvidia, basically barely above zero. Amazon's dividend is zero. Up next, does this decline of the dividend mean

we'll be seeing more companies using cash for buybacks instead? We'll take a look next. Welcome back to Overtime. Check out shares of Kenview today, higher by more than 2%. The company getting rid of its CEO after a strategic review by the board,

also issuing weak second quarter guidance, but saying it'll focus on ways to improve execution. Kenview is the Johnson & Johnson spin-off that makes Tylenol, Benadryl, and some other medicines. Well, earnings season is on the horizon, and while a lot of attention is on earnings per share and revenue, a lot of focus also is on dividends and buybacks. Our Pippa Stevens joins me now with a look at what companies might do with that extra cash. Pippa Stevens joins me now with a look at what companies might do with that extra cash.

Pippa. So John, as earnings season kicks off, the S&P 500's dividend yield is actually now at 1.25%, which is within 20 basis points of the all-time low of 1.12% hit during the first quarter of 2000. That's according to S&P Global. Now this follows years of companies favoring buybacks over dividends, given the former is more flexible. Share repurchases hit a record $293.5 billion during the first quarter, according to S&P Global.

And part of this is a growth over income mindset, notes Deutsche Bank, with many high-growth tech companies retaining earnings to reinvest rather than distributing them to shareholders in the form of dividends. But that also means in the downturn, buybacks can stop far more quickly, potentially pulling away a key pillar of market support, the firm said. Now, so far this year, the financial sector leads with buybacks at over 240 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, followed by the tech sector. And when it comes to dividends, the energy and real estate sectors have the highest yields

at 3.4%, followed by utilities at 3%. Technology is the lowest at 0.6%, but of course, it's also possible dividends are increasing, but the index price itself is rising faster, which then, John, drags down the overall yield. Good point. Stocks have been up. Also, on top of the flexibility point, it strikes me that given that rates overall have moved higher, there's no dividend yield, not a lot of dividend yields are going to compete with what somebody can get from a CD. If they're really looking for that kind of return, I mean, so they're not going to buy a stock for the dividend yield the same way they might have two, three years ago before the rates started going higher. Yeah, that's right. And really, you know, before the 1990s, the S&P 500 yield was really around that 3%.

And there was a much different mindset among corporates, which is that we have to focus on the dividend. But then things started to shift. And then we saw the tech boom and buybacks took off. And so now it's not so much a given with a dividend strategy. You know, if you really want to be a dividend investor, and Jenny Harrington at Gilman Hill Asset Management has made this point, you now have to seek out the companies that are actually paying those higher dividends

and it's one metric to look at in terms of many. But we have seen this pivot towards the buybacks and so now the question is, if there is a recession in the second half or next year or whenever, if companies start pulling back on that buying, has it artificially inflated stock prices without meaningfully growing EPS? And I think that's going to be more sense of, you know, we want to show that we believe in our company. And that's an option that we have.

And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president.

And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president.

And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we're going to be having with the president. And I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation that we companies can do more with what they want. That's right, and I think also there's gonna be more sense of, you know, we wanna show that we believe in our company, and that's oftentimes why executives choose that buy back route as well, it's to show that we have conviction in our long-term plan, but then the research also shows that executives tend to buy when the stocks are at a top, and so it's not necessarily

always the best timing, but it does give you that flexibility and show that your belief in your own company. Yeah. Easier to take back. More flexibility, as you said. Pippa, thank you. Well, time now for a CNBC News update with Angelica Peebles. Angelica.

Hey, John, the Trump administration can now resume its efforts to overhaul the Department of Education. With the court's three liberal judges dissenting, the Supreme Court today paused a federal judge's order that had reinstated roughly 1,400 staffers and blocked the administration from moving some key functions to other agencies. Two-thirds of a Justice Department unit that is tasked with defending President Trump's policies and legal challenges have quit. Reuters reporting that in a list compiled by former DOJ lawyers, 69 of about 110 lawyers

in the program have left or announced plans to leave since President Trump's election win in November. Sources tell Reuters that staffers have cited feeling demoralized over having to defend policies that they felt had no legal standing for their exits. And it's official, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is running for mayor of New York City as an independent. In a video today, Cuomo, who conceded to state assemblyman Zoran Mondani in the Democratic primary said that Mondani offered quote slick slogans but no real solutions.

Back over to you John. All right, Angelica thank you. Well shares of Fintech Circle and AI Infrastructure Play Coreweave both hired today. Both have been standouts since their recent IPO. So will more companies follow their path to the public markets? That's coming up on Overtime. Welcome back to Overtime.

Let's get a quick check on the markets. Stocks closing higher, the NASDAQ with a new intraday and closing high. Bitcoin around 120,000 right now, after getting as high as 123 on optimism about new crypto-focused regulation. Coinbase, slightly higher, as Argus Research initiates the stock with a buy rating, $400 price target.

Elsewhere in FinTech, a firm lower after BTIG downgrades the stock to neutral from buy. And Autodesk gaining 5% as it is no longer pursuing a deal with fellow software maker, PTC. PTC lower today, but not losing all of its recent pop. Turning now to IPOs, Renaissance Capital noting there have been more than 100 IPOs so far this year, including some recognizable names like Chime, Circle, CoreWeave, and eToro, all higher since their debuts. And IPO filings have popped up

recently with education publisher McGraw-Hill and consumer data firm, and IQ Global Intelligence announcing plans to go public. Other names we might've heard of recently are rocket maker Firefly and chip designer Ambic Micro. So is all this a sign of an IPO market returning to health? Will the enthusiasm continue? Joining me now on set is Sunaina Sinha-Haldea. She is the

global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James. Our IPO is back. Well I think the window is open. We can feel the breeze but is it fully open and that we can understand that this to be a sustained period of issuances? We do not know yet. I think having these debuts go well with Circle and CoreWeave certainly helps. The other thing that has been a great marker has been over 100 IPOs, 80% higher issuance in the first half of 2025 than the same time last year. Great signal for the markets,

but we require policy stability. When you look at the IPO pipeline, it's not as full as the market would like. A lot of folks are in watch and wait mode, especially with regards to their trophy assets that are often held in private equity funds. They want to make sure that there's a clearly established window that opens before their launch. That's what I'm remembering is that the risk assets suffered, especially in early

April when the president rolled out those initial reciprocal tariff rates. And since the market no longer seems to believe with conviction that the president is going to end up actually following through on the level of tariffs that he said, we see the IPO pipeline filling the window open. But if he does, is there risk there for all this? There is risk. And now we have another gating item in August as to whether he follows through, whether

there's another retrade here. So investors are in let's watch and wait mode. Let's wait for policy stability on two fronts. What path is the Fed taking and what path are these tariffs happening in terms of their implications on the economy? We'll see with the inflation prints tomorrow whether we we see any pass through coming good at all. So when there is a good line of sight that there's stability across the two,

that's when you'll see the window really crack open fully and all the issuances that are waiting in the wings to come out. Right now, there'll be folks testing the market, as we've seen, but not quite in a sustained way. Let me ask you about private markets in general. It's been a hot topic for a couple years now. We've talked to you about it.

There's also this sense out there now that the excitement around private markets is changing the nature of how even decisions our investments are being made, and that might kill the goose that laid the golden egg. How do you see it? Well, I think what's important is that because we've had really subdued capital markets on the public side over

the last couple of years when it comes to exits and liquidity via IPOs, you've seen behavior patterns change in the private markets. What does that mean? Private equity runs on a clock. Four or five years to buy assets, four or five years thereafter to sell assets. We've had a very bearish cycle over the last three years when it comes to selling things. You've seen M&A volumes down, we'll see if they pick up. We're starting to see all the green shoots in that direction, but we still need that full comeback after the 2021 period. We've started to see the IPO window open, we just talked about that, but we still don't have a fully clear path to selling some

of the assets that were bought in that 2019 to 2022 vintage periods in private markets. That's what I think you're alluding to, John. What happens to those assets that are now five, six, seven years old sitting in private markets? They have to be sold. So the question is, how? What do investors need to be careful of? Retail investors who are being pitched these private market assets for the first time.

And my sense is they're being pitched based on this long history of how these assets, these types of assets have performed. But we're in a period now where those assets aren't necessarily performing in the way that they used to. Now, private markets is a very large asset class. Retail investors need to know what they're buying. There are certainly private assets that have shorter durations and more history of distribution. So private credit is an example.

Secondary is market, another very good example, where the J curve, where the time between investing your first dollar and getting the same dollar out is much, much shorter and not as deep a period of time to wait. So all of those strategies help. In fact, those are the strategies that have seen the most traction from retail investors over the last year and a half or so. Now the other thing for them to watch is making sure that the liquidity profile matches the assets they're buying.

If they're buying long dated funds in an interval fund structure, then they've got to know that there isn't much liquidity there in the short term. However, if they're buying shorter term instruments, maybe they can be more tolerant of that. All right, Sunayana, I appreciate it. Getting us smarter as being pitched, investors are so many of these assets. Well, Netflix has been making dreams come true

for investors with a more than 40% stock surge this year. Up next, Fast Money's Tim Seymour on how you should be trading that stock ahead of its earnings Thursday right here on Overtime. And speaking of earnings, a top analyst on whether you should be buying the bank stocks ahead of their results or if the rally's gone too far. Overtime's back in two.

Welcome back to Overtime. We're looking here at shares of defense contractor RTX. They're hitting a new high after winning a $74 million Navy contract for a guided missile launch system. That news helping the whole aerospace and defense ETF close at record highs. RTX is the second largest holding in that fund. While Netflix is set to report second quarter earnings results Thursday, the stock's surging so far this year up 40 percent.

After such a big rally, is it too late to buy in? Seymour Asset Management Chief Investment Officer and CNBC contributor Tim Seymour can tell us. Tim, what do you have to believe about Netflix to buy it here? You have to believe I'm willing to pay 50 times 25 earnings that at least are the consensus out there and that the growth north of 18 percent per year is a kegger for the next four or five years. If you believe that because they are so bulletproof and so far ahead of their peers in call it the media space, yeah, and you also have to believe that there's no cyclicality even in

their ad model, which has been a big part of the multiple trades at. So how have you been treating Netflix and how will you? I've not been trading from the long side and probably haven't been trading from the long side for the last few hundred dollars. I think it's a stock that a lot of people wanna own on weakness and I don't think it's gonna fall real far,

although we did a segment on fast money last week where we talked about the implied skew on the options number. I do think that the market's prepared for a very strong number. So I think to the extent that they could disappoint, it's a crowded trade, but it's a trade that most people won't let it go too far because I think a lot of folks

want to own it lower. So are you trading any of the media and streaming players? I like Disney. I like Disney because the profitability in DTC is something that has certainly been part of the story, certainly with Netflix well ahead of that, but I think the cyclicality in their parks business is something that's probably overdone.

I think the charts tell you that Disney has held and then rallied off of, after a long base, some pretty important numbers getting through 115-ish, I thought was interesting. It is not comparable to Netflix at this point. So the biggest issue with Netflix at this point is that it's really just a valuation story. And it's a story where content,

where the broader business model getting into events, getting into data center, these are all things that I think are part of why people love Netflix. Let me get your take on a couple more earnings names real quick. How do you feel about J&J? I like J&J.

It's a stock that has not participated with the market. It's been almost non-correlated due to talc litigation and the fact that even some, the most sexy part of their business, the med tech stuff, has been somewhat caught in second gear. I think the talc litigation doesn't solve itself overnight, but I think the market is not prepared for any type of a settlement here,

even though I think we could be closer than people think. I'm long J&J, I actually think this is one that has more upside in it. Is Amex, American Express, still a proxy for the better off consumer, and if so, after this big spending bill has, and tax bill has passed, should you buy it? It is definitely a proxy, it's certainly a demo

that when we talk about the credit card players, they sit at the top in terms of that demographic. The story we heard from Delta in terms of their numbers on the Delta Amex card is also a story that bodes very well for second quarter spend. And I think these numbers are going to be excellent. I think the cyclicality out there for the market and for the economy are things that right now don't really confront Amex at this point and travel on restaurant and leisure and lodging are things that they said are seeing decent support here. So I think Amex is not gonna disappoint people, but I think out a couple quarters, it's anybody's guess.

What about United Airlines? Is it a first class stock? It's not the first class cabin in the airline sector I wanna sit in, that's probably Delta, but I do think that UAL is probably the next best in line. It's cheaper than Delta. They've been generating free cash flow. Jeffries has a really interesting note

pointing out they're going to have close to four and a half billion in free cash flow between now and the end of 26. That's something that allows them to pay down debt. And I think the capacity cuts and the cost savings in the sector make airlines really interesting. All right, economy, but you'll fly it. Tim Seymour thank you. Thanks John. You can catch much more from Tim and the other fast money traders coming up 5 p.m. on fast money. All right up next an

up-close look at a new threat to Tesla in China as Xiaomi yeah launches its answer to the Model Y. Plus banks have been significantly outperforming the broader market this year. Coming up, a top analyst tells us whether these stocks are starting to look overpriced ahead of this week's earnings. Be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Tesla has taken investors on a rough ride in 2025, down more than 20% so far this year.

And now a new rival to Tesla's Model Y might be the latest headwind for the EV maker. For years, Apple was rumored to be developing an EV. And now in China, one of Apple's rivals has done it. Xiaomi is showing what happens when a phone maker makes an SUV. And the latest China lens, Eunice Yun, has details. The U7 is a new entry in a market that's super crowded with so many companies that are competing for market share that there's open talk of a financial crisis in the industry. Yet Xiaomi thinks it has an edge.

The smartphone maker's first EV, a sedan called the Su7, sold well when it launched last year. Its SUV, the U7, takes direct aim at Tesla's Model Y, though reviewers in China say it has a similar design to a Ferrari. On social media, people love the look and the tech, what made Xiaomi a household name here. The cabin has a lot of smart features and gadgets. The main control panel can display three screens at once. It operates like a smartphone or tablet. And behind the main console is a magnetic tissue box.

Unlike most other Chinese EVs, the U7 supports Apple CarPlay. Ports for gizmos pepper the interior, and a thin, handy display runs along the bottom of the windshield. Xiaomi's most advanced driver assistance technology is a standard feature for the U7, no extra cost like for Tesla. Compared to the Model Y, the U7 is about half a ton heavier and four inches wider, so that affects the handling. Online, drivers say the steering is imprecise.

It's not a tall car, the height is lower, staff say, for a sportier look. But seats can lie almost flat, the drivers too. Adults can sit comfortably in the back seat. And there are unexpected storage spaces, like this drawer in the back seat and under the hood. Xiao Ai Tong Xue, da kai Qian Bei Xiang, open the hood. Xiao Ai, open the hood. The front seat is open. Be careful.

Priced as low as 35K, slightly cheaper than the Model Y, Xiaomi believes the U7 will carry the day. Xiaomi sold 155,000 of the Su7 in the first half and it looks as though the U7 is off to a good start. The company said that the U7 got 240,000 pre-orders on its launch day and then of course, meanwhile, Tesla sales are down from last year even as it refurbished its Model Y and launched that earlier this year. John?

Eunice, great stuff. Put this into context from my limited US perspective. In the US, it's like every brand has a credit card or a wireless plan or an Oreo flavor. Are we getting to the point where in China, brands can just have cars? Oh, we're not there yet. I mean, there are, it seems as though every single day

there's another car maker that launches a new model. But in terms of other car makers or other companies that are outside of the car industry, it's a few and far between. So it was really quite a surprise when Xiaomi had come out and said last year that they were going to enter the EV market when it is just so crowded. But as I said in the piece, they are a household name. There are a lot of people who think that the company has what it

takes to be able to make it. So we'll see when especially when it's up against such a competitor like Tesla. Expecting a shakeout? like Tesla. Expecting a shakeout? You would think if it was the US that there would be a shakeout because of the number of competitors in this market but because of the nature of the way the industry works here where almost every single province seems to back one of the EVs and makers with that a lot of subsidies it makes it a lot of subsidies. It makes it a lot more difficult because the incentives aren't really there for a shakeout. Important factor, Eunice Hewn staying up late or getting up early for us.

Appreciate it as always with China Lens. Well bank earnings take center stage this week when JP Morgan City and Wells Fargo kick things off tomorrow. Up next a top analyst on how you should be trading these stocks with this barrage of results. I'll be right back. Welcome back to Overtime. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. Look out for the latest reading on inflation when the June consumer price index lands before the bell tomorrow. Prices month over month expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1.

And we'll get a slew of bank earnings before the bell, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Bank of New York Mellon. So what should you do with the banks? Joining me now is David George, Bayard Senior Research Analyst. David, regionals or the big banks? Hey John, I would say regionals from our perspective the risk

reward trade off and banks to us John are really risk reward stocks and the risk reward trade off we think is simply better in the regional banks you've got a record dispersion between where regional banks are trading relative to the money

center banks really the longest that we've seen in the twenty five years that we've done it. So expectations are high going into tomorrow. So we're a little concerned, John, about a sell the news event tomorrow on what is going to be, we think, pretty good numbers. But again, expectations super high, given where the stocks are trading here. Now the KRE, the regional banking ETF, is up above 63 right now.

It was down below 40 back post-SVB. That's quite a run. Is it the whole index that investors can buy, or do they have to be really selective? From our perspective, no, so the KRE you mentioned is larger regional banks and from our perspective you want to be- generally selective given the move that we've had that the when we were together three months ago- that was the time.

To get aggressive on bank stocks and many stocks are up thirty to forty percent during that period of time so we're. Of the view that that you're going to get a better crack to buy these stocks as we go to the balance of the year

from a risk-reward standpoint We're a little bit elevated on the risk side and a little bit limited from the reward standpoint whether we're talking tariffs taxes Interest rates. How does policy affect the banks right now? Well, just like the rest of the equity market, the tariff issue has really become a non-issue, and I think that cooler heads have prevailed with respect to kind of longer-term expectations,

and we're of the view that we're probably settled between a 10% to 15% aggregate tariff limit. There's also some optimism around potentially Fed cuts. The two-year and fed funds futures are pricing in- seventy five basis points of cuts. By the end of the year so that would have we think. Some positive

implications as it relates to the regional banks and the money centers as well. As you start to get a little bit of shape. Of that yield curve and that also would be. Constructed for capital markets activity at the same time. Do you have to parse

through these names for. and maybe even subprime exposure? Yeah there's really a fairly limited subprime exposure the likes of Capital One and some of the others in the consumer finance space have some more focus exposure around the non-primary but we're obviously going to be looking at all parts of the credit spectrum when we get these numbers the rest of the week consumer commercial. And I think the focus over the next several

quarters from a credit quality for standpoint not going to be. Just the consumer but also corporate profit margins particularly for small and medium sized companies there will be. We think some losers as it relates to tariffs and-

that's going to manifest itself we think. In the form of lower corporate profit margins and that over time, we think, could result in losses moving higher. But certainly this week and next week when we get more regional bank numbers, credit quality should continue to hold in pretty well,

we think. Interesting, yeah, I guess on the regionals in particular, to the extent that they're interacting with those small businesses exposed to tariffs. Investors really do need to be careful. David George, thank you. The bank's a big deal. Thanks, John.

Kicking off earnings season. And hey, it's been a wild ride for the markets, especially with policy shifts and tariff messaging from the president doing what it's done, but it was a day largely in the green for the markets and lots of data to come come both on the micro and the macro sides. For now that's going to do it for overtime.