Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 8/18/25

Episode Date: August 18, 2025

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Jon Fortt, Morgan Brennan and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business.

Well, that's standard regulation taking stock, ringing the closing belt, the New York Stock Exchange. Comedian Jeff Ross doing the honors at the NASDAQ. A quiet day on Wall Street. As investors await Fed Chair Powell's Jackson, Holspeech, and an onslaught of retail earnings later this week. The Russell was the main index to close in the green up fractionally. It looks like the NASDAQ also just above the flat line here. But the S&P and the Dow both finishing lower, Treasury yields, edging slightly higher. Industrials and consumer discretionary were the sector winners today.

Communication services and real estate lagged on the commodities front. Oil. Brent moving to the upside today. Gold on the flip side, closing at the lowest level since August 1st and posting its third straight day of losses. Bitcoin and ether moving lower. Both coins roiled, or rolled, I should say, over that after that higher than expected inflation data last Thursday.

Some investors pointing to some profit taking here triggered by a wave of liquidation across the broader crypto market. That's the scorecard on Wall Street. Welcome to closing bell over time. I'm Morgan Brennan. John Ford is off today. A historic meeting in Washington as the leaders from some of the biggest European countries gather to discuss the Ukraine-Russia war. We're going to dive into the headlines and what could come next. Plus, are economists too bearish on growth prospects and two concerns about inflation? While our market guest says, yes, he's going to make his case. And Goldman Sachs, says this has been one of the best earning seasons on record.

Will this week's big round of retail earnings keep that street going? We've got the numbers to watch and the stocks to buy ahead of the results. But we begin with the big meeting in Washington today. President Trump's sitting down with European leaders as the administration attempts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine with the war now in its fourth year. The leaders wrapping up that multilateral meeting in the last hour. Let's head to Amon Jabbers at the White House for more. Amen, Ukraine's President Zelensky was there as well. Quite a few dignitaries.

Yeah, absolutely. You rarely see a power player lineup like this at the White House today. They are behind closed doors now, the European leaders and President Zelensky, along with President Trump. So we'll wait to see what they emerge from, what they say when they emerge from their meeting. But a strikingly optimistic tone from both Zelensky and Trump in several photo ops and Q&A sessions with reporters in the run-up to the meeting that's going on now. and at pains to suggest that they want to achieve peace, they want to end the killing, and they want to see some kind of a deal here that Ukraine can agree to, along with Vladimir Putin of Russia, who, of course, President Trump met with in Alaska on Friday. The president, for his part, in a multilateral meeting with world leaders, laid out his vision for what he wants to see. Here's what he said. optimistic that collectively we can reach an agreement that would deter any future aggression

against Ukraine. And I actually think there won't be. I think that's even overrated, largely overrated, but we're going to find out. And I think that the European nations are going to take a lot of the burden. We're going to help them, and we're going to make it very secure. The headline so far, Morgan, is that the president has not taken the option. of U.S. troops in Ukraine off the table in discussions so far today. He has suggested that as part of those security guarantees, the Europeans will be on the front line of providing

those security guarantees because they're most impacted. But he says, we will be involved. That is, the United States will be involved in some way. What that actually means, whether he's envisioning boots on the ground of U.S. troops in Ukraine as part of a ceasefire agreement, that's unclear. And they said, all the leaders said that they were going to go behind closed doors and hash out in Trump's words, who does what, in this security guarantee. So more to come from here, Morgan. And I realize this is very complex negotiations. There's a lot of different parties involved here.

But given the fact they're now meeting behind closed doors and expectation is that's going to play out here for perhaps the next couple of hours, is there an expectation that we could get some more meat on the bone in terms of what some of that looks like or just too soon to tell? I mean, I think it's too soon to tell. President Trump is clearly moving on an expedited timeline. He said he's going to have a call with Vladimir Putin immediately after this set of meetings today to go over with him whatever emerges from this. So the President of the United States wants to move very quickly here, and he's been talking throughout the day about the idea of a trilateral meeting with the three world leaders all in one place at one time to hash out the future of Ukraine and Russia. Not clear that everybody on the European side is on board with that, the Chancellor of Germany suggesting in the multilateral meeting,

that the part of which the press was allowed to see, suggesting that maybe that trilateral meeting shouldn't happen unless there's a ceasefire first. That is, that Putin has to give something to get something here. So there might be a little bit of disagreement behind closed doors, and we'll wait to see how that all shakes out. All right. A busy day for you, Amon, in Washington. Thank you for bringing us the latest.

Amy Javvers. So what does today's historic meeting mean? And what can we expect next? Well, Atlantic Council President and CEO Fred Kemp and Andrea Kendall. Taylor, former deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, both join me now. It's great to have you both. Fred, I'm going to kick this off with you. Seasfire versus a big, broad peace deal. Do you need one to get to the other? And if not, is a trilateral agreement the next step in a move forward?

Yeah, so thank you for that question. I was on the phone all weekend long with various European officials. Their phone lines were burning. There are two reasons. two reasons why they came to Washington. One, they were really worried about the outcomes of Alaska and that they were going in the wrong direction. And the second was this glimmer of hope, glimmer of optimism around the security guarantee. So I wouldn't dismiss the need for a ceasefire.

At some point, Putin has to stop killing people in Ukraine. But the real ace in the deck is the U.S. joining a European security guarantee for Ukraine. because if you can save your sovereignty, if you can save your independence, you can make some territorial compromises. But why make any territorial compromises if you're leaving yourself insecure and unsafe and you're going to be attacked thereafter? And so that's why you've seen something that the President himself said that the White House had never seen before, this bodyguard of European leaders around Ukrainian President Zelensky. It really was something that I certainly have never seen in my lifetime in the White House.

Yeah, and of course it seems assembled very quickly in terms of everybody coming to Washington and being here bright and early on Monday, midday. Andrea, I want to get your thoughts on this, specifically the security guarantee part of this. Are there other examples we could point to of what this would look like? What would you want to see? Well, I mean, I think this, as Fred said, is really going to be the crux of it. And as Fred said, Ukraine cannot concede any territory unless they have a robust security

guarantee, and it was very positive to hear President Trump say that he's willing to participate in a future security guarantee for Ukraine, because that really has been an open question. But the thing that worries me a lot is the devil will be in the details, and as you're suggesting, these security guarantees can take many different forms. And what I'm concerned about are the thing that gives me pause about being overly optimistic that we're moving in the right direction, is that the Russian side has been quite clear that they're not willing to accept many of the parameters of a security guarantee

that we think that experts think would keep Ukraine safe. So we have the Russian side saying that they're not willing to accept NATO or European troops on the ground in Ukraine. You have the Russian side saying they want very strict limits on the size of Ukraine's military and its defense industrial base. So there's a lot of things yet

that we need to work through in order to be, I think, optimistic that we can get to a deal. Fred, I want to ask you about something you've been writing about, and that is Europe's strategic moment, the fact that it's here, whether they like it or not, what do you mean by that? And how does all this play out now when you see so much investment starting to finally move forward for things like defense spending on the continent? Yeah. So look, you see the United States wavering in its security commitment to Europe overall in the Trump administration. You see Putin menacing. And so what I mean by strategic moment is Europe either has to stand up and fill the defense and security needs and responsibilities of its continent or nobody else will. And they'll be left to others' decisions. Now, the problem at the moment is they don't have the military wherewithal, certainly not the heavy lift, certainly not the air defense, to be able to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine. So you need a bridge. And so this would be a perfect, I totally agree that one should be

a little bit skeptical about how it's going to be very hard to get to security guarantee agreement, let alone to a territorial agreement. Those things are both going to be very difficult. But what's different in the last two weeks, we now have an opening we didn't have before to at least start working in that very, very difficult direction. But as the president, said himself, and I thought this was just a great quote. By the way, Amon Javers' coverage on this has just been steady and smart and terrific. But he said that the Europeans have to take on the brunt of the burden, but we're going to help. That's the solution, that the U.S. comes in to help, but the Europeans take on the brunt, and they have to take on more and more year after

year, but the U.S. has to bridge to get them there. What can't happen is an abrupt departure of the United States because Europe is not yet ready for its strategic moment, completely. Completely. And so I think we can now build on 80 years of commitment of the United States to Europe by providing this security guarantee for the Europe's to take the lead, for Ukraine to survive. And then that would be really a truly historic occasion. But it's a far way off. We've got a long way to go for there. I talked to one White House official over the weekend. He said this is a marathon and not a sprint. And my one question is whether President Trump is in for a marathon, sometimes he doesn't want solutions to take that long, but this one is going to take that long. Yeah. Andrea, I want to get your thoughts on what it takes to get to a territorial deal, because for years now, all the way up through this weekend, we've been hearing that Zelensky of Ukraine was not willing to cede any ground in terms of negotiation on that. What's changed? Well, he still isn't, and that's really important to emphasize. He's been very open and public

saying that. And there's a couple of reasons. One, Ukrainians, the public opinion. Ukrainians are not yet ready to see territory. Number two, on this like land swap idea, you have to recognize that Russia has been fighting to take this region in the Donbos and Ukraine's east for many years now. And there was an excellent piece out by the UK, the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense, that said that if Russia continues its current pace of advance, it would take Russia four years, more than four years, to completely take the rest of this Donbos region. So it makes no sense for Ukraine to just turn this land over.

It would also be very detrimental to the military morale, to ask a military where they've lost blood and treasure to hand over territory that they currently occupy. So there's a lot of reasons. And then it all comes back to security guarantees, which is where we started. This area is very strategic. If it's handed over, it could provide a springboard for future attacks on Ukraine. So if Zelensky is going to make any territorial concessions, and that would have to be decided by the Ukrainians, it has to be accompanied by extraordinarily robust security guarantees so they can be sure that Russia won't simply attack in the future.

Okay. We'll continue to watch this marathon, not a sprint, but a marathon. Thank you both for breaking it down. The nuances around it, Andrew Kendall Taylor and Fred Kemp. Palo Alto earnings are out meantime. Christina Parts Nevelis has the numbers for us. Hi, Christina. Hi, well, shares are up about, what, 5, 6% driven by the higher guide, but I want to break

down the numbers for, oh, now 7%. Let's break down the numbers for the quarter. Earnings per share of 95 cents, which is a solid beat versus estimates with revenues just slightly ahead of what the street wanted, but it's the Q1 guide for EPS, earnings per share of 88 cents to 90 cents. That's a range is higher. than what the street wanted, as is the Q1 Revenue Guide. One key metric for a lot of cybersecurity software names

is the remaining purchase obligation, RPO, and it really gives us a glimpse into the revenue backlog, you know, who's gonna spend money in the near term, and the company is guiding between $15.4 and $15.5 billion, which is above consensus. Overall, the report is seen as a positive. There's a lot of long-only funds in this name, especially when you compare it to competitors,

Checkpoint and Fortnite, which really plunds, plunge after their, I guess, less impressive guides. Morgan. All right. Shares up six and a half percent. Christina Parts Nevelas. Thank you. Thanks. Let's turn to the broader markets. Stocks were relatively quiet as investors await Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. That's set to take place on Friday. Markets will be closely watching to see if Powell sticks with his hawkish tone. Our next guest says market watchers are too bearish on growth and too worried about inflation. Joining us now is Eric Friedman, U.S. Bank chief investment officer. Eric, it's great to have you on. Let's start right there. Why do you think that's the case?

Yeah, Morgan, great to see you. I think really two things in mind. Number one, you think about the growth trajectory. There's been this almost dismissal by companies of giving really thoughtful guidance about what's in front of them, really because tariff confusion has reigned supreme. So we're starting to see that really peel back a bit. Think about the various sectors that are very consumer sensitive, whether that's leisure hospitality, financials, the job. general consumer zeitgeist is actually getting incrementally a little bit better. Even though there's a lot of discussion around how challenged consumers are, we actually think that at the margin consumers will be doing a little bit better on the spending front over the next couple of months and quarters. The second component is a deferral decisions by companies is actually starting to really scale back. If you're in a sector and you've really held off on giving

guidance, have you really held off on providing perspectives on your spend, it becomes a bit of a prisoner's dilemma. If you're the only one who's really, you know, keeping cards close to chest, that's actually not a good thing. So we think in general, the growth picture is generally positive. I think the other point on inflation, the U.S. can't really afford to be an outlier on the inflationary front. Just to kind of look at economists forecasts out the next that's called 18 months. Economists think that inflation will still be above 3% in September of 2026 versus what we're seeing forecasts in in developed markets as well as developing markets at sub 2%.

So I think that in general, you're seeing this trend of, you know, really over-indexing on inflation and also hearkening back on less growth. We just think that things would be a little bit better on both fronts than what economists are currently thinking about. You know, there's this funny thing happening in the bond market. And it's not just domestically. It's globally. And that is you're seeing the long end climb higher.

And it's not just here in the U.S. either. You're seeing it in Japan. you're seeing it in the U.K. and other parts of the world right now. What is that signaling? Is that a reflection of how sticky inflation is globally right now, or is it something else? Yeah, I think in Japan, it's definitely something else. Morgan, that's a bit of an anomalous situation just because of what's happening. Unfortunately, such a long period of latent activity in Japan. But really, I think it's an important point you raised because for us, as macro investors, we want to see the 10-year sit between 4% and 5%.

Sub-4%, that for us would be a growth scare. You cover that a little bit earlier in an earlier segment. Above 5%, that would signal to us that, look, we're wrong in inflation. And in fact, economists may be underestimating where inflation goes. So right now, the tenure at about 435, that's actually a decent level for both borrowing to probably resume, pick up a little bit later on this year and early next. But again, that's sub 4% number, that would suggest to us that consumers will actually really scale back. So, you know, if anything, what we're seeing in Europe is a little bit of loosening of labor laws, a little more animal spirits flowing, which we think is a good thing.

But in general, you're seeing the bias from central bank estimates for rates to come down. So, again, long and under the curve, very modest pickup, but certainly short another curve. People think that X Japan, there will be some cuts to come. We think that's a great time to be involved in global equity markets, especially large caps at current levels. Okay. And, of course, we will see what we get from Powell and the rest of the Fed and also some of their European counterparts who will be at Jackson Hole presenting later this week. Eric Friedman, thank you. Great to see, Morgan.

Thank you. Well, coming up, a big week of retail earnings ahead, including Giants Walmart, Target, Costco. What can we expect? And what name should be in your shopping list ahead of those results? plus home builder sets a minute. It's coming weaker than expected as builders say affordability remains a big headwind for buyers. We're going to

look at what it means for the housing trade with Fast Money's Guy Adami. That's coming up ahead. Overtime's back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Welcome back to overtime. Well, it's big week of earnings for the sector for retail, as Wall Street awaits results from Target, Lowe's, Walmart, and

TJX, just to name a few. But first, we're going to hear from Home Depot. That's tomorrow morning, as that stock is on pace for its best months since November of last year. What can we expect from the sector? And are there names that you should be adding to your portfolio? Joining us now, on set is John San Marco from Newberger-Berman, and it's great to have you here. Welcome. Great to be here. Thanks, Morgan. Let's start with Home Depot. What are you expecting tomorrow? Great place to start. I think, you know, I think taking a step back, the broader retail space, it's kind of same old, same old. I don't think two Q will sound terribly different than one Q. I think tariffs are being passed through reasonably painlessly. There's just

not much incremental excitement. Home improvement is a space where we've gone from bad to less bad to I think this is the quarter where we turn the corner start to see positive growth. The cycle starts to get better. Why? Well, for starters, we're three years past. that when rates initially surged and housing turnover responded to that immediately. And that three-year number is an important figure because that's about how long a new homeowner spends at an outsized rate on their home. So we're hitting this key point where the new rate environment has been digested, and I think people can focus on what's specific about Home Depot and some of their advantages.

Okay. I know they have a diversified supply chain, and they're making some big acquisitions right now. So how do you stack them up against lows, which isn't necessarily making the same sort acquisitions. On the DIY side, both, I think, are very similarly positioned to benefit from a better consumer, more willing to spend on big ticket. But your question alluded to it, what Home Depot's done the last, really the last decade, and very aggressively, the last several years, they've built the new abilities to serve pros in different kinds of ways. Larger purchases, planned purchases, makes for a much bigger market selling the same product to the same customers, just obviously, more use cases. And so all of this has been hidden from the public market, I think, by the cycle.

And when we get to just a lukewarm cycle for home improvement, you know, I think some of those things will start to shine quite a bit more. What are your thoughts going into big box retailer earnings, especially I look at like a target. They've been getting a lot of my money in the back-to-school spending spree in the Brennan Kachati household. But in general, we know that's a name that's been struggling, in part because obviously they get hit hard by tariffs, but also buy all the discretionary stuff there? Sure. Yeah, a big box, I think, you know, perhaps in the other direction. It's been an unusually benign competitive environment across general merchandise retail. It's, it's been a long time since competition has really reared its

ugly head in that space, and that space can get pretty cutthroat. I think at the margin two queue will show us very little. We just haven't seen enough tariffs yet. The consumer's been resilient enough. There's even perhaps some wallet share shift out of services and into goods that made the space look better. But I think this is probably as good as it, as it gets for that space. Targets a little bit different. I think they've had some execution issues. And to your point, they do skew a bit more discretionary than their largest competitors. So, you know, it's already been tough for them. But I think there's the risk that it gets tougher for the broader space across grocery, across general merchandise retail. Does Walmart continue

to be a winner here? Or are they going to see more competitive action? I mean, think about it, Amazon report about grocery delivery, for example, last week? Yeah, they're immune from a lot. They've had so much momentum. They have so much heft. I think when they report 2Q, they'll flex their muscles around those exact things. The volume, the frequency they're winning with customers, some of these future-proofing capabilities they've been building.

But no, they're not immune. Amazon making big incremental bets on grocery, making big incremental bets on rural. That's a shot right across Walmart's bow. So, you know, that's not to say that they can't defend themselves. They're certainly not helpless, but, you know, I do think there's the risk that economics across the space come down in the battle for everyday wallet share and frequency with the customer. Okay. John Sam Marco. Thanks for joining me here on set. Thanks for having me.

Well, coming up, investors have raised equity exposure sharply since that April bottom, but it hasn't hit extremes yet. What could that mean for the rally? We're going to discuss what overtime returns. Welcome back to overtime. Investors' market exposure has risen sharply since the April lows. While positioning has been moving higher, it's not at extremes, at least not yet. So what is that telling us? Let's bring in senior markets commentator Mike Santoli.

Hi, Mike. Hey, Morgan. Well, it's telling us that not absolutely everybody is crowded on the bullish side of the boat. just yet. And sometimes the market can get topy if basically positioning in aggregate is overextended to the upside. So based on this Deutsche Bank equity positioning gauge, it's not quite the case just yet. What you see is it's risen, but it's about at the 71st percentile over the last 15 years. What that means is it's higher than 70 percent of all readings, but obviously it's well below where it was the middle of last year. And before that, right in the

pandemic rally, as well as early 2018. So that's when it's kind of like everybody is in and max bullish. So it suggests that there's at least room for buyers to actually incrementally get more exposed to equities as we go along, assuming the market holds together. What it also would suggest to me is if the market does pull back, there's probably a little bit less downside before you have an attempt to buy the dip. Now, this is all investors in aggregate. So collectively, it's institutions of various types, plus some retail investing measures, and it's kind of slow moving. So it's not all about, you know, the quickest finger trigger fingers in the market and what they're doing at a given moment, but it does give a sense out there

that not, you know, everybody is bought in and is margined up in this market. Yeah, it's interesting. It's Goldman Sachs, and Reuters did a write-up on it today, but Goldman Sachs basically, you know, said hedge funds are buying U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks in anticipation of Fed rate cuts coming starting next month. We also have other guests on who talk about the, whatever it is, $6 trillion, $7 trillion in dry powder sitting on the sidelines. Does that begin to rotate into stocks or does that tend to stay separate? I don't know that that's really where I would look to suggest that you could have

marginal buyers come in. Obviously, that creates a cushion for equity positions. And to me, that's what it really means. If you do have that cash sitting there in the system, It means that wobbles lower in the equity index means you can kind of handle it, absorb it, maybe do some buying on it. Most of that money is just cash, and it's, if anything, replacing bond holdings as opposed to being about to move into stocks. I'll also just point out that Goldman Sachs measure, yes, the fastest buying over the course of seven weeks among hedge funds, but it didn't bring their overall positioning to an extreme high. It's kind of just above neutral at this point.

It just sort of shows you that how destabilizing the events of the spring were, how a lot of folks were very slow to trust this market, given all the policy questions, until very recently. All right. Mike Santoli, putting in context, as always. See a little bit later to the show. Thank you. Well, it's time now for a CNBC News update with Kate Rogers. Hi, Kate.

Hi, Morgan. Hamas says it has agreed to a Gaza ceasefire proposal presented by mediators from Egypt and Qatar. According to an Egyptian official, the proposal includes the temporary suspension of military operations for 60 days, which would see the exchange of Palestinian prisoners in return for the release of half of the remaining living Israeli hostages. Texas health officials today announced that the measles outbreak in the state is officially over. The state health department says it's been 42 days since any new reported cases. Since it began in January, nearly 800 cases were confirmed in Texas, including two unvaccinated

children who died. And salaried employed employed. rather, at Starbucks are getting a 2% raise this year. According to Bloomberg, it's a shift from previous increases that were decided by individual managers. The move coming amid a turnaround plan at the coffee giant where executives have been asked to keep cost under control. Morgan, back over to you. All right. Kate Rogers. Thank you. Still ahead, Palo Alto shares are up about 4% right now here in overtime. That's after Q4 earnings that were better than expected, better guidance too.

We're going to speak with one analyst to calls the firm's recent acquisition. of CyberArk, quote, misunderstood. Closing Bill Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to overtime. Let's get another check on cybersecurity giant Palo Alto networks. Those shares are higher up about 5% right now after a strong beat, but off the best levels. That conference call kicking off in under a half an hour. Joining us now is Evercore, our enter.

Prize software research analyst Peter Levine. He has an outperform rating on the stock. Peter, it's great to have you on your thoughts on this print, which had better than expected quarterly results, but also it looks like stronger than expected guidance. Absolutely. Thank you, Morgan, for having me back on. So, yeah, no, this was actually, I think, a really strong print for Palo Alto versus expectations. I think you called that earlier. You saw like Fortnite checkpoint have some softness, but, you know, the guide for fiscal 26, which is this is their fiscal year end. So the guide came well above expectations. free cash flow margins, which is a metric everyone's been watching, actually was kind of

guided above, call it 38% to 39%. So overall, like, this was a very healthy print from Palo Alto. Okay. What's driving it? You know, I think you're just seeing cyber demand is, I think cyber is still pretty resilient. I think the prints that we've seen earlier, I think were more idiosyncratic to some of specific issues that these other vendors were happening. But with Palo, again, like you're seeing the geopolitical landscape.

AI, you know, the threat landscape's not changing, right? And cyber is still mission critical. And Palo is an enterprise brand. It's, you can't replace it. You can't pause these digital transformations around security. And with AI and obviously the cyber arc deal, I think Palo is just well positioned to kind of help secure those AI workflows. And I do want to get more into the cyber arc deal in just a moment here. But you lay it out like that. And I can't help but wonder why names like this would be, the federal business would be considered a risk here if you're trying to become more efficient and more secure? No, the federal business for Palo, it's less than 4 or 5%.

So they do, they do, I would say Palo is probably one of the largest vendors within the federal government, but for them, it's, you know, it's low single digits. So I don't think it's that much for risk. And for federal, it's, again, like you are seeing transformations going on within federal and especially Palo's main business, which is networking, like you're not going to rip out these firewalls. So for Palo, I still think they're best position that will continue to kind of outperform on the federal side.

Okay. So talk to me about CyberArk. Why is this deal misunderstood? Yeah, for a couple reasons. I think identity has become central to modern cyber attacks. So the deeper integration with identity data, I think, stands there significantly, I think, bolster, I think, Palo out those platforms. If you're thinking about, you know, privileged access,

What CyberArf does is they govern who has access to these models. And then once you're in, Palo essentially then governs what you can do. I think together you're taking the networking data, the cloud data, you have the endpoint data. So all these attributions, I think, combined together, do tell a really powerful, I think, you know, story around securing AI. And again, with AI, the adoption trend continues, you're seeing more of these vulnerabilities being discovered. So I think them to combine with an identity asset, which they don't have, which now gives them the full platform. form of the full stack, I think does tell a pretty compelling story. Okay. Peter Levine, thank you for joining me.

Thank you. We share as both of those names, Palo Alto and CyberArc, trading higher right now. When we come back, our Eunice Yun is at China's first ever world humanoid robot games. She brings us all the details right after this break. We're at China's first ever world humanoid robot games. More and just a few minutes. Welcome back to overtime. Elon Musk says Tesla's humanoid robot optimist is key to driving its next leg of growth in the decade ahead.

Invidia, Amazon, Microsoft, and others are betting heavily on the technology as well. The stiffest competition, though, could come from China. Beijing hosting its first ever world humanoid robot games this weekend, where robots from Chinese companies compete in boxing, soccer, dance battles. and more. Eunice Eunice here. She has the details for us. Hi, Eunice. Robots playing soccer? Maybe not. China's first world humanoid robot games is just the latest in a series of events and programs aimed at promoting humanoid robot technology. The Chinese government is posting this three-day event where

humanoid athletes show off their skills. In martial arts, the 400, meter race. Is it just me or does that guy look tired? And rounds in the soccer tournament. Guo Tong, who programmed one of the futuristic footballers, sees robots replacing his idol Ronaldo. By when? 2050, he replies, robots have stronger joints and core strength, he explains. Chinese Olympic boxer Li Yang trained this robot to fight in the ring. Robots are easier to coach. she says. Humans are emotional. Not only do the droids slug it out in sports, but at jobs, too, as drugstore clerks, factory workers, and hotel housekeeping. The challenge is for the robot

to pick up all the garbage that's in the room, but the referees tell us the biggest challenge for the robots is opening and closing the door. This isn't just fun in games. Beijing has plans to build a world-class industry of humanoid robots by 2027. Designer Wang Shidong says the competition is key. We are refining our robots, he says. Everyone feels motivated to compete. As China attempts to rise up and win, the worldwide humanoid robot race. Even though the 280 teams came from 16 countries, including the U.S.,

all of the robots were made in China. Morgan, who won? Actually, the company that dominated the metals was a company called Unitry. This is a Hangzhou-based company, and it's seen as a serious competitor to Tesla. It dominated in running as well as in football. 2027. That is not far off to be assembling an army of humanoid robots, especially knowing how much energy consumption and compute it takes to get these things up and running and functional, let alone competing in an Olympics.

Yeah, no, that is the plan, though, and the direction has been set. So because of that, we're seeing a lot of different companies jumping in and trying to get in on the bandwagon with this policy. In fact, Morgan Stanley had said that they expect in the second half of this year that the government is going to make a broader push for adoption by more companies. And they say that because they see more large orders being placed by state-owned companies. Interesting. Eunice Yun, Yun, great reporting, as always.

I remain suspicious that we see a robot replace Ronaldo, though. I'll just say that. All right. Still ahead. Novo Nordisk rising 4% after slashing the price of Ozempic by 50%. We get the skinny on the weight loss trade when closing bill over time. Coming back. Welcome back.

Japanese markets on the move today. as investors make bets on that market. We're going to bring in Guy Adami from Fast Money. I hear shouting in the background, Morgan. You know what? Robots will not replace the genius of Morgan Brennan and the equal genius of Courtney Reagan, who is hosting this fine show in about 11 minutes time?

They won't replace Guy Adami or the Fast Money traders either, which is why we love having you on this show so very, very much. the NICA closed at a record high today. We were talking about what's happening in the bond markets globally a little bit earlier on the show. Want to get your take on Japan? Let's throw a chart up,

your crack staff back in the EC can do this. And if you look over the last 10 years, there have been these two-year periods where the NICA sort of flat lines and then takes the next stair step higher. We're in the midst of one now. And inflation, which is a problem there,

I think it's going to be great for risk assets there. And that coupled with the fact that their companies are actually run better, and look at what Warren Buffett, some of the investments he's made over the last few years, I think there's a real good reason that the NICA, despite the fact that it's an all-time high, is going to continue this rise. And I do think you're going to see continued weakness in their bond market. I think you're going to see re-accelerated strength in the yen against the dollar in the form of it moving about 147 and change down to 140.

And I think that's all going to be very supportive of risk assets there. So yes, I think you stay with this. trade, Morgan. Okay. Well, if we come back here to the U.S., Home Builders. Let's do that. But let's do it together because I don't like to travel alone. Okay. All right, well, let's travel back here to the U.S.

Because Toll Brothers is set to report after the bell tomorrow. We got NHB reading as well and continue to see some softness, some stagnation, if you will, in housing. And yet the Home Builders ETF is up something like 9% so far this year. We've had a pretty good rally in the last couple days, too, expectation of Fed cuts.

Let's look at a chart these home builders. They all sort of topped out many months ago, all precipitous declines, all of retraced about 50%. But for whatever reason, nobody wants to bring up the fact that as of a late June reading, they're almost 10 months worth of new home inventory. The highest levels we've seen in quite some time. For context, history is about 5.8, six months of inventory. So we're on the wrong side of that. And I think what we've seen here, in my opinion, in the home builders, is just a bit of a bounce off an oversold condition. And as much as people want to make it about interest rates. I think it's more about the underlying economy and some of the

softness in the job market, which will not be supportive of these home builders, in my opinion. All right. How about pharma? Because health care has been on a tear too. And obviously Novo Nordisk was one of the big stories today, higher after the company slash it's the price of its anti-obesity drugs for less than half of the monthly list price. That's for cash-paying U.S. patients. The company also won FDA approval for use of Wigovi to treat certain types of liver disease as well. And by the way, it wasn't

just Novo Nordisk that was moving on this. Hems and hers was lower on this. And then you had Good RX, which apparently signed this partnership with Novo Nordisk, shooting up something like 40% today. What do you think of the GLP1 trade? Throw up an NVO chart. I mean, this is round-trip, an entire

move from 51, you saw that huge acceleration to the upside, and then you've back and filled the entire move. So I've tried to say on valuation, you can be attracted to where you can own this stock, and I've tried to do it for the last $35 or $40. It's been a bit of a fool's errand. I think the problem with this GLP1 trade is valuation didn't matter on the way up, and valuation is starting to matter on the way down.

I think this is a bounce. I think it's a tradable bounce against sort of $50-ish, which was at prior low. But I'm not putting too much stock in this yet. I'll say this. Eli Lilly has bounced recently, but I think more and more people, We're starting to look at the valuation of a company that made sense on the way up in the growth trajectory, but is now something that people are focused on on the way down. And in terms of the stock and in terms of the valuation, they were given six, seven, eight months ago.

I don't think they're going to enjoy that going forward, in my opinion, Morgan. S&P today, basically close. Did you enjoy this, by the way, this little back and forth we have it now? I enjoyed it so much. I'm going for a bonus question with you, Guy. A bonus, like the Jonas Brothers. There's a bonus one. I think its name is Sam or something, right?

There are three of them that sing. They were just an LBI, by the way. I think they played at one of the establishments down there. Did you go? Did you go? The 90s are back. The 90s are back. I don't know if you knew that.

I went to a monster truck rally this weekend. No, you did not go to a monster truck rally. I did, and it was so cool. So, all right. What do you want to talk about? No, the S&P. You want to talk about the market? Yeah, we'll talk about the market.

So we're range bound and down here. Where do we go from here? We are range band and down. So I think people are waiting to hear what Jerome Powell says. Not in terms of an interest rate move because I don't think that's coming, obviously, in Wyoming. But I think some of the rhetoric around what potentially could happen is what people are waiting for. And what I find amazing and what Doug Cass has written about and something that I've said for a while, last year at this time, the market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2025.

I think the S&P was around 5,500. The S&P rallied in large part on the hopes of those rate cuts. Now we're hoping for two, maybe three, and we continue this optimism at a much different level in the S&P. So rate cut, no rate cut. I think the market's going to win and lose on valuation and on a lot of companies saying things in terms of guidance. And a lot of the guidance, if you notice, that hasn't been good, companies are being punished more than they're being rewarded. Okay. Guy, you're the guy. No.

Appreciate it. By the way, the monster truck thing, I mean, we could all, like, you with a whole group could have gone. We could have made it like a fast money. Bill's giving me the wraps. Okay, Bill. I'm wrapping. Okay. Guy down me.

See you later. Everybody. The fast money crew. We'll see in a little bit. All right. We'll be back after this break. Welcome back to overtime. Let's bring back Mike Santoli for another dashboard and his take on specifically how economic data is holding up.

after last week's confusing set of reports, Mike. Yeah, Morgan, it is holding up. I think that's the main takeaway. This is the city U.S. Economic Surprise Index that shows how the economic numbers are coming in relative to economist forecast. You see, it's above zero, not far above zero. So it's not exactly like the results are dazzling relative to forecast,

but it is on a net basis hanging in there. That's in contrast to what happened this time last year. That's late summer, early fall of 2024, really bad July payrolls, report in addition to some other kind of growth scare type numbers. And that really got everybody concerned and obviously made people think the Fed was behind the curve. Eventually we got a 50 basis point rate could in September. So right now we have relatively slower growth for the first half of this year, but it's coming in more or less as we expect. And there's not a lot of perceived outright recession risk going on right now, Morgan. All right. High frequency data. Is it telling

a different story than some of the backward looking data? It is, as you said earlier, a little bit noisy. It's a little staticy. So obviously, the July payroll report and the revisions were outright not good. And some of the ISM survey stuff has also been maybe cause for concern. But then we got the retail sales number, the government number last week, and it was just fine. So I do think that, you know, it's good enough to keep people believing that if we get a rate cut in September, it is into a relatively stable economy for now. All right. Mike Santoli, we got a minute left here. I got to ask you. I don't know if you've been watching these humanoid robot reports that Eunice Yunn has done.

Yeah. I got my daughter here, Remy. She's a big soccer fan. She's got her messy jersey on, but she's also Rinaldo fan. What do you think? Humanoid robots, are they coming, and are they going to replace the real thing? They're coming? I don't think they're coming for soccer players, so it doesn't feel as if, and I don't

know if you would want to optimize them for sports, right? It looks like they have a hard time with lateral movement. It was reassuring to me, although amazingly impressive as a show of engineering skill, and what they can do for other useful tasks maybe, but I don't think on the field. All right. On the pitches, they might say. Oh, yeah.

It's good to get your take on this. Appreciate it. We'll see you tomorrow. And Remy, in the meantime, what do you think? You think stocks are going higher or lower from here? Higher. All right. Well, we did have a basically unchanged day for major averages

with the S&P slightly lower, the NASDAX slightly higher. That's going to do it for us here at overtime as we look ahead to Jackson Hole. this week. Fast money begins now.