Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: 8/25/26

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what’s driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The bells bringing an end to the trading day at the NYC, the Big East Conference bringing the bell. And at the NASDAQ, it's Northern Trust closing out the trading day. Welcome to closing bell overtime, live from Studio B at the NASDAQ market site. Mike Santoli, Melissa Lee, is off today. Stocks finished the day in the green, but markets do seem to be in something of a holding pattern ahead of Nvidia earnings and Warsh at Jackson Hole. That's later this week. The Dow up 160 points, the S&P 500, finished higher by about a third of a percent.

the NASDAQ higher by about two-thirds of 1%. Oil falling on the day on hopes for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. We're going to get into all that coming up. Bond yields moving lower along with oil prices. The big stock story of the day is Dick's sporting goods, losing 30% of its value, dragging Nike and others down with it. Much more on this name is coming up. And we're also awaiting several earnings reports, Intuit, Zoom, and Box,

all due out in the next few minutes. All right, we start with oil moving lower today after a statement from Iran and Oman, saying they have discussed a framework that could provide practical basis for moving forward when it comes to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pippa Stevens has those details. Hi, Pippa. Hey, Mike. So this would include the creation of a temporary joint corridor and traffic management. Now, the announcement was pretty light on specifics, but there would presumably be some sort of fee, which likely would not be palatable for other Gulf nations and countries more broadly. given passage was freely available prior to the war.

Now, oil was down before this midday announcement, building on yesterday's losses with economic deed A scene as pretty much a non-event in the energy market. The New York Times also reporting the State Department is preparing to send diplomats back to the Middle East, after which the department confirmed it's adjusting staffing at certain posts in the region, seemingly pointing to a lack of near-term escalation.

Now, this is within the backdrop of this limbo of more, oil getting out of the straight than at the lows of the war, but less getting out than prior to the war. Now, the tightness in product markets that's pushed up gasoline and diesel futures fueling interest in refining stocks, Marathon Petroleum, Valera, and Phillips 66, all having a big year. But now Jeffrey's pointing out that short interest is also on the rise in the crack ETF, which tracks the space. So perhaps, Mike, a little bit of cooling enthusiasm for some of those names. Yeah, I wonder if folks are starting to wonder if it's as good as it gets for, for those refiners. And in fact, product markets also kind of softened up today, right?

I mean, I did see wholesale gasoline on the downside. That's right. We did see some weakness there building on yesterday's losses as well. But it does seem like there's now been a lot of exuberance and attention on the tightness in the fuel markets. And so that's pushed up the mid-cycle cracks to about $35, which some people say is probably not sustainable longer term. And so perhaps these valuations have become a little bit stretched. But as we continue to talk, about it really comes down to whether or not these U.S. refiners especially can maintain these utilization rates north of 97 percent, particularly once we enter what's usually a turnaround season. Then also I would just point out the big move in European natural gas because we did see

those prices close at about 68 euros per megawatt hour. That's the highest in more than three years. And right now it's supposed to be injection season, but with prices where they are, a lot of those cargoes are still going to Asia. So the question becomes whether or not. TTF needs to move higher in order to incentivize more of those cargoes, especially with EU mandates for how full their storage should be by October 1st when the withdrawal season typically starts to begin. Interesting. All right. Yeah, more bottlenecks around the world. Pippa, thank you. Those lower oil prices helping to push yields down as well. Let's head to Rick Santelli at the CME. Hi, Rick. Hi, Mike. Indeed, look at a 12-hour chart of oil and 10-year note yields and

clearly see that they are dancing together. As a matter of fact, we're on fresh yield lows for the session right now as we trade that 462 in tens. And as you look at HR going back four sessions there, two things to jump out at you. We are now in the range of four sessions ago. But maybe more importantly, if you look at the high watermark there on the upper left hand side, that's the current high yield close for this entire cycle. And it's a bit under four and three quarters. And And should we get there, what the comp is right now is January of 2025, which is quite a ways back, but not nearly as far back as many other countries, whether it's Japan or what's going on in the UK. And finally, maybe we should be paying more attention to how the foreign exchange markets treating the dollar, especially in China at a time where China's under the microscope for some of the relationships with Iran. And you see there that right now, the dollar versus the Chinese yuan that's an onshore is at the lowest level in three and a half years going back to Jan of 23.

Mike, back to you. Interesting. And Rick, we do get a pretty good batch of data in the morning as the market has kind of stabilized here in treasuries. Oh, yeah. No, I'm going to be one busy person tomorrow. Personal income durable goods, factory orders. We have a busy, busy day tomorrow. And I would think that obviously the PCE, the Fed's supposedly favorite metrics on inflation,

will be key in deciding where the next leg of yields go. For sure. All right. Rick, we'll be there with you in the morning. Thank you. The major averages closing higher across the board today. They're also higher for the month, but is the bull market running out of fuel? Joining me now is Jim Paulson.

He's author of the newsletter Paulson Perspectives, long time economist and strategist. Jim, it's great to see you. Thanks for helping me, Mike. Great to see you as well. And, you know, it's funny because the narrative has been actually all about a potential overheat, right, of CAPEX, of yields going higher, of earnings being almost too strong. But you're trying to, I guess, navigate around that immediate news flow and say maybe we're losing some of the thrusters of this market. What are you focused on? I think so. I think what bothers me about the stock more a little bit, I guess, is I think

It's used up a lot of capacity, and then we're starting to put some pressure on it, I think. Just quick on capacity, if I look back to 1950, the price level of the S&P 500 or two, it's trendline average, it's 60% above that. The earnings on a trailing 12-month basis are 60% above trendline. The price level being that high is only that higher at the top of the dot com, and earnings have never been that high above trendline levels. So there's, you know, how much higher can they go? earnings estimates compared to historic norms have been much higher, almost record-setting amount going back to 1990.

So there's a lot of optimism in those earnings numbers overall. If I look at profit margins, they're at record highs. If I look at labor costs to overall GDP, they're at record lows. If I look at investment spending to GDP, it's at record highs compared to the post-war period. much capacity is there left to squeeze more profits out of this in that basis? If I look at what investors are doing, household equity holdings as a percent of total financial assets are a record high. Householding household cash holdings to the market capitalization of the stock market is close to record lows. You know, if you look at valuations, they're not all record highs, but they're

fairly high. And if I look at sentiment in the market, you know, at best you can say I think it's complacent. You know, you've got a lot of people that are going to use to buying the dip, and it's worked out okay, and that's what they think is going to continue. No one's worried about recession anymore, Michael, because we haven't had one for 16 years. I just think it's a vulnerable market, and then we're bringing some pressure. You know, we're raising the long-term bond yields. Real money growth is, you know, maybe averaging one and a half percent in the last year, year and a half. The dollar's still within eight percent of its all-time record high, going back to 1970 in real terms.

Yeah. The federal deficit, you know, has been contracting over the last year and a half. So there's some things, I think, bringing pressure, including like oil prices, on the system that's already kind of at full capacity. Yeah, you make a good case that, you know, the pendulum in many respects seems to be pretty far in one direction on a lot of those different measures. And then I guess in the maybe more immediate term, what are you thinking about the pace economic activity. It seems like you think there's waning momentum. Maybe that helps to drag down

treasury yields, but not to the benefit directly of stocks. Yeah, the key here, you know, if you look at, you know, capital spending's on fire. And there's no doubt about investment is on fire that side of the economy. But the consumer is definitely slowing down. You look at non-far payroll employment or this morning's ADP numbers that have been going back over the last few weeks, weakened again. Retail numbers from Johnson Redbook or the last retail sales reports down. Housing activity is fairly punk overall. So I do think that there's momentum slowdown. The Citigroup, U.S. Economic Surprise Index has fallen from 60 to 25. It's starting to really show a slower economic momentum going on. The question will be, if rates do come down here under slower momentum, how will the stock market

react? Right now, like today, rates are down. People are less worried about inflation. It's a good thing. But I think inflation fears are going to kind of moderate, and I think recession fears are going to enhance. And if that occurs, we may go through a period yet this year where lower rates coincide with falling stock prices rather than the other way around. And how does the effort by Treasury last week to sort of draw a line and say we're going to be, you know, perhaps doing more buying of longer-term treasuries, and then today Stanley Drucker Miller criticizing that move? Is that noise around the edges? Does that matter for the direction of things?

I think it's mainly noise. I mean, the whole thing about long-term bond yields of late, Mike, it's got me a bit baffled, you know, with the Warsh announcement and then Secretary Bennett that the bond market's going on a, you know, bond vigilante moment of raising yields by themselves. I don't see when they've gone up that much. I mean, the 10-year yield tonight is still about the same range as has been at for three years, and so is a 30-year yield for that matter. It's not much higher than it's banned.

And every time yields go up, there's this idea that there's a bond vigilante siting. And I don't think it's really happening. I would prefer to see the market setting a lot of rates and having policy officials follow their lead. And certainly, I don't necessarily want fiscal policy trying to do what monetary policy is supposed to do in the market. But I really think what has been done so far is not that aggressive. It's not that meaningful. It's more of a talker than it is a real thing at this point. Yeah. All right. So you have to sum it up. You think maybe we get a little bit of a growth scare, not a recession. Maybe a need, maybe a stock market correction. And we'll see if we have to brace for that. Jim, really great to talk to you. Thanks again. Jim Paulson. Thanks for having me, Mike. Appreciate it. All right. earnings from Intuit just out and the stock falling after hours, but off its worst level so far. earnings of $4.3.3 of easily topping the estimate of $358. Revenue also better than expected. But it's the guidance, which seems to be weighing.

on the stock. First quarter revenue seen at 4.31 billion at the high end of the range. 4.36 is the current consensus forecast. Similar shortfall and guidance for the full fiscal 2027. You see shares down 3.5%. Let's turn to Washington. Canada today responding with retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. Megyn Casilla has the latest on this brewing trade war. Megan. Mike, that's right. The tip for tat tariff war are now well underway. Canada making it official today with new tariffs of 15 to 50% on $20 billion worth of U.S. exports to Canada. Now, this is their direct response to the 50% tariffs the Trump administration imposed on 20 billion in Canadian exports after trade talks collapsed over the weekend.

Canada must respond. And today we are in a proportionate, targeted, and strategic way. Today I'm announcing that Canada will match the United States tariffs, dollar for dollar, rate for rate. Canada's tariffs will take effect two weeks from today. They'll hit about 700 U.S. goods. Items rain from seafood and dairy to textiles, wood and paper. Some of the most significant duties target American steel.

Those tariffs set to double to 50%. Now, Canada also announced a $7.5 billion package to support businesses unhurt that are hurt by the U.S.'s tariffs. That there, Mike, is a suggestion that Canada here is digging in for a fight. Yeah, and Megan, just to handicap the next moves, I mean, it seems as if we're in the stare-down. It measured responses, I suppose. Does it spin off from here? I mean, I know the president was sort of, you know, kind of lashing out about renaming Lake Ontario.

But beyond that, does it feel as if it's in a bit of an upward spiral? Are we going to be here for a while? We could be here for a while, and things could get a lot worse from here. For one, there's just not a lot moving forward, a lot of optimism that this is going to be resolved anytime soon. Canada's digging in for no new trade talks until potentially after the midterms, and they think this could be a long time. And could it get worse? It certainly could. The president yesterday, President Trump, was saying that on January 1st, he's going to double tariffs on Canadian cars and car parts up to 50 percent. That would be a significant escalation would really impact

Canada's economy. Obviously, a lot of time left now, between now and January 1, a lot of time left to negotiate. But that just shows that's just one step of how much further things could go. Canada, backing down, saying they'll shore up their domestic industries, saying they'll go further if they have to. So we just don't know how much further it could go. I'll remind viewers, Mike, I know you know that Canada is by far the largest supplier of U.S. energy products. And with all that's going on in the Middle East right now, that's a major tool that they have left in their toolbox. They're not pulling it yet, but they could. Right. And so Canada's not pulling that tool out, but also the U.S., of course, exempts energy products from these tariffs. So for now, that remains kind of the

untouchable big one. Yes, it does, but they could go there, certainly. The U.S. could put tariffs on Canadian imports. They're not doing that yet. But Canada could simply say, we're not selling as much as we were. We're going to charge higher prices, whatever they want to do. It is the untouchable. That's sort of the third rail, I would think, before things start to really spiral.

For sure. All right, Megan, thanks so much. Well, Dick's sporting goods getting crushed after earnings. The results catching Wall Street flat-footed. We'll talk to one analyst who has an overweight rating and one of the highest price targets on the street. about why that analyst is staying bullish. We also want to show you the closing bell at Cebo in Chicago, ending the regular trading day for options.

You're watching Closing Bill overtime, live from the NASDAQ market side. Welcome back. The five below shares under pressure today, loop capital downgrading the specialty discount retailer to hold from buy, but maintaining its $250 price target. The analyst there says this rating change is based entirely on valuation, not fundamentals. In fact, the firm points out it has a bullish near-term fundamental outlook driven by the ongoing squish toy trend. Five below shares are up 40% since just the beginning of July and up more than 80% over the past year. Well, sticking with retail, Dick's sporting goods, the stock story

of the day after losing a third of its value. That's its worst day ever. Strength in its core Dick's stores was overshadowed by weakness in Foot Locker, which had acquired last year. That weakness extending to competing sporting goods chain Academy Sports, along with footwear and apparel makers, Lulu Lemon, on holdings and Nike. Let's bring in Barclays analyst, Adrian Yee. She has an overweight rating and a $280 price target on Dix sporting goods. Adrian, great to catch up with you. Talk about, you know, what came as such a jolt to the street that it created this sort of indiscriminate selling today. Yeah, it is just a rewrite of the footlocker potential. You know, as you said in the introduction, the Dix banner, right, seems to be fine. And remember that the Dix's. banner is primarily focused on performance. So, you know, active goods for active people. As Footlocker has a very, very different target market, and it really focuses on that lifestyle,

that more discretionary side of things. So really what we saw here was an initial success in sort of seeing some green shoots on turning the business. And then what we heard about today was multiple fold kind of impact on Foot Locker. Number one, the lifestyle segment, as kind of having fatigue. There's a trend shift away from kind of that low profile shoe and lifestyle, maybe to Brown shoe, right? I think we've talked about that before, that they have to continue to make investments while the sales are slowing.

Bad combination and net net, they had a profit swing from a profit, about $200 million profit swing from profitable to not profitable for Foot Locker this year. So the loss in market value for Dix today was like $5 billion. That's twice what the company paid for Foot Locker about a year ago. So, I mean, either that's kind of a complete overshoot in terms of what the market is now handicapping in terms of the negative impact or, you know, or something has really changed that is going to perhaps, in fact, core Dick sporting goods. Yeah, let me put it a different way in terms of perspective.

So we now have an entity that's about $22 billion in top line market share and probably has the capacity to take a, up in sporting goods, low double-digit percentage, right, in terms of the market share. Two-thirds of that is Dix, and it's nice and healthy. The other $7 billion of this, one-third of it, is actually causing the entire DKS corporate operating margins to get effectively halved, right? So when we think about kind of, you know, longer-term, and I know no one's going to underwrite longer-term because they just told you that there is probably, they just saw a trend in lifestyle leisure that's not one quarter, not one season, may not even be, you know, one year in the making, right? So this is a fairly long live problem that they need to kind of move footlocker through.

But at the end of the day, you still have the significant growth, right, or the significant earnings power that is still coming from, you know, Dick's sporting goods. No one wants to see good cash generated from Dix kind of invested into the Footlocker entity. But that's, you know, clearly what's happening right now. And what about the broader implications across the rest of your coverage universe that's relevant to what's going on in footwear and athletic? Yeah, I think the takedown of all of the stocks that are surrounding it. So what did Dick to tell us? They said that there is too much inventory in the channel, especially in the foot locker lifestyle channel. What that means is that they're going to promote dollar for dollar against those brands themselves.

It also means that on the horizon, too much inventory, not enough demand. It means on the horizon maybe for spring that they will be buying more conservatively. They've got to clean up this inventory, this dislocation between sales and inventory. It does not bode well for the brands that sell into them, particularly the ones that seemingly, right, are the ones that have a little bit of excess and not enough innovation. We heard from On, we've heard from Nike, that that lifestyle innovation really isn't coming to market until spring, summer, right, back to school of next year. So we have this air pocket of innovation we have to live with in lifestyle. Yeah, it looks like a little bit of a messy period. That's a long way up to 280 for Dix. We'll see if it can start the path back. Adrian, thanks for coming on. Appreciate it.

Coming up, bidding competition for commercial real estate hitting the highest level in a year. We'll look at why and what kinds of properties investors are after. Plus, this mystery stock has had a strong year despite a recent pullback. The company reports results tomorrow and it's not in Vindivida. That name coming up on closing bell overtime. Crowdstrike, one of the worst performers in the NASDAQ 100 today ahead of results tomorrow after the bell. The stocks fall in seven of the last eight sessions, but it is still up more than 50 percent this year, concerns about AI going rogue, among other things, leading to increased demand for cybersecurity software. While bidding for commercial real estate properties heated up in July and more investors are getting in on the action.

Diana Oleg has that story for us in this week's property play. Diana. Well, Mike, investors are getting a boost in both confidence and credit resulting in the more competitive bidding for commercial real estate. Bidding for properties in June posted its strongest monthly improvement in a year, according to JLL. July saw the second highest count of unique bidders in the index's five-year history. Competition among lenders is also well above previous record highs, the spread between credit and bid intensity is narrowing after you see that peak spread in May. Credit availability sets the tone for liquidity. So where's the action? Well, here's a surprise, retail. After that sector was declared all but dead due to e-commerce,

retail is seeing new life. The bidding for properties is also getting more competitive because current landlords like their returns and so they aren't so interested in selling anymore. Also, industrial continues to see strong demand thanks to onshoreing. The weakest sector, that is multifamily, as an oversupply of new construction, still makes its way through the pipeline. Now, for more stories like this, make sure you are signed up for the free Property Play newsletter. Go to it, CNBC.com forward slash property play. Mike? Okay, Dana, so retail and industrial seems strong. Multifamily apartments, not so much.

You didn't mention office. Does that fall in between? Office falls in between. We know that we're in the recovery in the office market, but it's bifurcated. You have that A-level office, those great modern buildings in big cities doing extremely well, leasing up very quickly. But some of that B&C material, not so much. It's still that distressed property is making its way, some being converted, some not. But office is kind of in the middle of all that. Yeah, a familiar story there for the last few years. Diana, thank you very much. Time for a CNBC News update with Brandon Gomez. This is Brandon. Hey there, Mike. President Trump is honoring the life of Dolly Parton with an order to lower flags to half staff for the next week. In his statement on truth, Social, Trump shared his condolences on the passing of the legendary country star, writing, this is a true loss for millions of people. There has never been anyone like her. Parton died Tuesday in Nashville. She was 80 years old. The Justice Department is threatening to demolish the Kennedy Center if renovations to the venue are blocked. The DOJ argues in a new filing that without the updates, the building is structurally unsound. And in to the nation's capital. Part of that renovation includes adding President Trump's name to the front of the building. And the U.S. Postal Service announced today that it will temporarily raise prices for some package services during the peak holiday season. Small priority mail packages will cost about $1 more, while some larger priority mail packages will set customers back $20 more than normal.

Now, the Postal Service has up prices for the holidays almost every year since 2020. Mike? Brandon, thank you. Cal She is reportedly asking the SEC to delay approval of competing products from SIBO. Former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler weighs in on the growing battle between traditional exchanges and prediction markets and closing bill overtime return. Welcome back to closing bell overtime live from the NASDAQ market site. Stocks gaining today, but not much conviction as markets await earnings from Nvidia and comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Worse this week. The Dow gaining 160 points, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, both just about getting done.

back what they lost yesterday. The NASDAQ 100 up about six-tenths of a percent on the day. We did get some results at the top of the hour into it down after disappointing guidance for the first quarter and full year. Zoom, beating on earnings and revenue, but the guidance for next quarter also below consensus on both measures. And Box, in line on earnings, a slight beat for revenue. Guidance there are mostly in line as well. Box does a lot of business in Japan, so results could be affected by moves in the yen. According to reports, Kalshi sent a letter to the SEC earlier this month, urging the agency to block or delay approval of a CBO competitor product, specifically binary options tied to specific line items in earnings reports. This is the latest example of the growing battle between prediction market newcomers and the traditional financial exchanges.

Just last week, Kalshi filed with the CFTC to launch equity index perpetual futures, which some investors fear will disrupt the business model of the exchanges. We're going to us now to discuss the battle as former SEC Chairman under President Biden and former CFTC Chairman under President Obama and co-host of the Power and Consequences podcast, Gary Gensor. Gary, thanks for joining us. Good to see you. Great to be with you, Mike, and your long career on television. Yeah, it's getting there. Look, Gary, it's, I mean, obviously there's a sort of surface irony here of the upstart prediction market saying to regulators, hey, let's protect our little franchise.

from the entrenched exchanges with Cebo. But at the root, I guess, it's a disagreement over whether the SEC or CFTC should oversee this particular type of contract. How do you think that should break? Well, I agree with you. It's kind of rich to see the upstart saying, no, no, no, no, don't let the incumbent do that, which seems to be a product for there. It's an option. Now, it's a binary option, which is a particular type of option, but it's an option, which CBO has long experience in the Chicago Board Options Exchange. And it's about securities, public companies, particular line items in their registration statements and earnings releases. That seems that if I was still back at the Securities and Exchange Commission, I'd be asking some of those wonderful staff.

Well, that seems to be a securities product, not so much a commodities product. It's not corn or weed or even interest rates. It's about a specific public company. Right. And I guess more broadly, this goes to this notion that the prediction markets players prefer this COTC oversight, which has taken this very expansive view, right, of maybe what can be allowed under these prediction markets banners, defining lots of things as futures, making things nationally tradable, and, you know, like sports betting, which used to be only in some states. I mean, is this appropriate? Is this going to be the way the regime is going to carry on from here? Well, there's been jockeying ever since the commodity futures trading commission was set up over 50 years ago.

And I love them both. I was honored to chair each of them. But they have different remits. And the Securities and Exchange Commission is about companies raising money. and then all of us investing in those securities. That's a very different remit than overseeing derivatives and commodity derivatives at that. And so I think that this particular set of products, it does feel like it's about those companies raising money. But the upstarts, the Calches, the polymarket, others,

they want to keep that at bay. Now, to your other question, yes, the CFTC is a smaller agent, It generally is focused on what's called institutional or wholesale markets, not the general investing public. And it really is not focused as much on a really critical piece about it is what are the issues we're saying about their companies and insider trading. So one might say that it doesn't have the same touch as the Securities and Exchange Commission. Another, I guess, but somewhat related fight about these perpetual futures is, you know, the CME is saying that they don't really fit the definition of a futures contract. They're more like a swap.

I know it's kind of like, you know, there's legal language around a lot of these things, but not having an expiration date. It does seem to be something different than a limited risk futures contract. And then I guess just payments along the way, if you have a perpetual, which someone's, what looks like a swap. Is there a way to say, you know, how this ought to go or will? I, you know, ultimately will play out in the courts. And Terry Duffy, the head of the Chicago Mercadoe Exchange, he's done a terrific job over the couple of decades running that company, and he's got a really legitimate point of view, and this is what it is, away from the legal language. It's that the same product should be treated similarly and have the same investor

protection and regulatory remit. So is there a clearinghouse? Do you have to have a broker or what's called a futures commission merchant to enter into the markets and so forth? And I think if there was a level playing field, then some of this dust up would quiet down. But right now there doesn't seem to be a level playing field. Some of these prediction markets are offshore. Some of them are not well regulated. and then their Americans are accessing them through something called virtual private networks. And of course, you mentioned 70 or 80 percent of their volume is around sports betting, which Congress never gave the CFTC that authority. It's just the CFTC has sort of said, oh, no, we want that authority.

But that's not what Congress did back in 2010. Yes. Yeah. And, you know, the prediction, it's a good point about, you know, do you need to have a central clearinghouse or not. The prediction contracts typically are kind of peer-to-peer for a listed futures contract. The counterparty is the exchange and the exchange is clearinghouse. So important distinction. I mean, do we going to have to have Congress come in and say who oversees sports prediction markets and all the rest of it? Or is it just going to be a little bit of a free-for-all for a while longer? Well, I'll split it into different buckets. But on sports contracts, this is going to end up,

my friend in the Supreme Court. I followed over the summer my first ever brief in a court called an amicus brief because I think that Senator from Nevada, Majority Leader Harry Reid would have never let in that Dodd-Frank Act a little agency called the CFTC to take over national sports betting and have that authority. And overrule, there's 11 states that don't have legal sports betting. There's many states that say you have to be 21, not 18 to do it. So either the Supreme Court's going to sort it out or Congress. And then on the second piece of this, this fight between traditional finance and the CFTC and the prediction markets and the startups, I do think the importance is to have a level playing field. And if it touches a public company, if it touches an issuer,

that's really the remit of the Securities and Exchange Commission. CFTC is a great agency, but it really is not geared to do those things. Yeah. Interesting way the lines might get drawn or should. Gary really appreciate the time today. Thank you, Gary Gensler. Always good being with you, Mike. All right.

Well, thank you. We should note CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi. Up next, are agricultural commodities about to move high? higher. We'll look at why they could be on the verge of a multi-year breakout when closing bell overtime returns. Welcome back. Bitcoin continues its recent bounceback, briefly rising above $80,000 for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency rallying more than 20% over the past week, and Bitcoin-related stocks have been booming as a result. Check out shares of Robin Hood up more than 20%. Coinbase up roughly 30% in the last week. Goldman Sachs also raising its price target on

Coinbase to 196 from 173, citing its exposure to persistent improvement in the crypto market. While the market's recent pullback still looks more like a test of the breakout than the start of a deeper correction, but with momentum weakening, September seasonality ahead, will any of that change? Joining us now with a closer look is macro risk advisors, head of technical strategy, John Kolovis. John, S&P 500, just kind of sagging a little bit, but not really, you know, breaking much of the trend. Where's it go? Yeah, I mean, it's allowed to pull back after a very powerful breakout. I mean, we went through a consolidation process for about two or so months,

had a strong breakout on good volume, on good breath. It's entitled to pull back, and that's considered a throwback on the charts. You break out, you come back and test, you know, the previous resistance level. I think that's totally normal. It's totally benign at this point. We're not seeing any distribution coming in on the market at all. And I would say, as long as we hold, you know, the 75-50-ish area, I would say maybe, like, base case, one and a half percent lower from here,

and then we should be able to start pulling. So we're showing the momentum chart there, the RSA. Does it have to kind of get oversold at all, or is this okay to just hang out here? Ideally, you don't want it to get too, too, oversold, right? So in strong uptrends, a 40 or even a 50 is good enough. I see. Okay, so it doesn't have to go to 20. Got it.

Agricultural commodities, kind of interesting, and you got the moo, which is the ETF, that covers a lot of those publicly traded companies, starting to actually get going. Yeah, so I'm highlighting that for a couple of reasons. One, every time I come on, I like to talk about commodities if I can, right? So last we're talking about gold. I've talked about oil a lot of different times. And now we've got agricultural commodities starting to break up. So you would have pulled up the Bloomberg commodity, agriculture commodity index.

It's about ready to break out of a two-year base. So as a technician, we love these big bases. So what's the equity play? So the moo ETF, the agribusiness ETF looks fantastic. I've been standing at this thing for almost a year now. It's been going sideways for a bit. It had a strong rally in the middle of last year, pulled back at 75. Then at the beginning of this year, busted right out of pretty much a massive head and shoulders bottom,

which targets about 100 on the ETF. Now, what it's done, it had pulled back quietly into a bull flag, a consolidation pattern has started to break out at it as well. So I think this is a bit of a textbook chart and a market that is continuing to rotate healthy from within. So what I'm trying to do is with clients as well, tech is taking a bit of a breather, but start looking at other places as well. But at the same time, since I think that commodities are in a secular market, whenever there's a buyable dip and something that touches a commodity, I want them to start dipping, dip buying and buying those stocks. Interesting. So kind of stay a little bit ahead of the rotation if possible.

Yes. The volatility index. I know there's some kind of seasonal aspects to it. It's been pretty benign for a while, but where does it head? All right. So everybody knows about seasonality. Whether it's real or self-fulfilling, it's still an important factor, right? So the chart that I brought today shows the 30-year average of VIX, the seasonal pattern versus where it currently is. And VIX is woefully low right now. I think VIX should be closer to 20. So just on a price standpoint, VIX is super low. So with all these catalysts coming up, NVIDIA, Marvell, PCE, Jackson Hole, you name it.

I think VIX call spreads make really good sense here for insurance in this environment, right? Good convexity there. But it's not just equity implied vol that's low. cross-acet implied vol is very low currency commodities fixed income so what that tells me is that i think there is a fair level of macro complacency out there even though all we're doing is talking about the macro worries so along those lines even like tl tl tpuds spreads make sense given that if rate were to surprise us and break out we can get some convexity with the tl t as well so i think the options marketing is giving us some pretty good insurance policies right the idea that vicks should be

I mean, one of the reason it's been suppressed is that actual index level volatility has been very low. Correlations among stocks in the index has been rock bottom, as low as it ever gets. And so you'd almost need that kind of rotational balance to break to get VIX much higher from here. And that's fair. And one thing that I've noticed in the charts of late is that tech is still wobbly, right? Semis failed at resistance. Everybody's kind of spotted that already. But my bank started a roll over last week, right? If you get tech and financials to not act well, that's about half of the market cap. I don't know if, you know, super-duper-strong health care is going to be able to hold it, and energy is going to be hold it, and the breakouts and materials is going to behold the tape up

if those two sectors roll over. That's not my base case, but I just think that the setup is here. Like the headline that I used on the chart was, you know, you buy an umbrella before it rains. You live in New York. Sure. Okay. What happens if you get caught in the rain? You can't find out an umbrella.

What do you do? Oh, do you show up on the corner soon as you get in the drizzlement. It was $2. Before, yes, when we were sunny, and then all of a sudden it's $10. So that's the same idea that I'm trying to get across the clients. I'm bullish. I don't think we get to $8,300. It's probably going to be a nine handle on the market sometime next year.

But in the meantime, let's just be careful and pragmatic as the market tries to navigate through this, I guess, this catalyst's heavy part of the year. Yeah, I guess, you know, you always say you want to lose money in your hedges. We'll see if that makes sense. John, great to talk to you. Thank you very much. Thanks, as always, for your insights. be sure to check out my new weekly Market Memo newsletter.

It features analysis of key market themes, including insights from John Clovis and exclusive commentary from top traders and investors. You can subscribe at cnbc.com slash market memo. All right, Nvidia earnings and a key inflation reporter set to move the markets tomorrow. Up next, we'll look at what to expect from both and how options traders are positioning for Nvidia. And here's a check on some S&P 500 stocks hitting 52-week highs today. Merck, Biogen, Freeport, MacMaran, and Invesco, among them. Closable overtime, live from the NASDAQ market site. We'll be right now.

As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with the nation and continue to shape its future. I think America is incredible. It's this combination of innovation, optimism, capital formation, and talent. I'm Yishan Hung, president and CEO of State Street Investment Management. State Street Investment Management is one of the largest asset managers in the world.

I'm incredibly proud to be a part of State Street. This is a company that has a history that is more than 230 years old. When I think about the history of State Street, it very much mirrors the many chapters of America's economic history. We rose through the industrial growth. the rise of the public markets, globalization trends, and today's modern investing environment. I'm a daughter of immigrants and a first-generation American

and my parents came to this country with the belief that education, hard work, and opportunity would create a better future for their children. And it is that belief that has really shaped my entire life. So when I think about the American promise, it's not so much that success is guaranteed, but that opportunities exist and that your starting point doesn't necessarily determine your ultimate destination. This is a country where people believe that tomorrow can be better than today, where people are willing to take risks, solve big problems, and invest. And you couple that with one of the deepest and most dynamic capital markets in the world,

where you have transparency, rule of law. All together, I think this is what makes our environment. and here are financial markets so exciting. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. The July personal consumption expenditures price index is the big item on the economic calendar. Economists are expecting the PCE to rise 3.6% year over year, while the core PCE is seen increasing 3.3%. Also on the tape, the second reading of second quarter GDP and the July durable goods orders report. And then after the bell, it'll be a huge hour of earnings featuring NVIDIA,

sales force crowd strike, ACTA and synopsis. All right, let's get more on what the market's expecting from NVIDIA's results tomorrow. Oliver Renick is at CBO in Chicago. Oliver. Hey, Mike, the main event of the week, according to Options pricing,

which is elevated on Thursday rather than tomorrow, which suggests Nvidia is the main event, as opposed to Jackson Hole or anything else. Traders are pricing in a 5.7% move for the stock after earnings, which looks quite big compared to the average 2.5% swing it's posted after its last four reports. It could be nerves considering Nvidia fell after each of those last four earnings, but it also speaks to high demand for call options that caught a strong bid in today's tape. More than 500,000 calls were likely bought in today's session on Nvidia compared to about 140,000 puts.

The volume was lower than average with less than a billion dollars in total premium traded. But the most popular contract by volume was indeed bullish, a 230 strike call that caught a lot of attention. That contract needs a 9% rally into the weekend to pay off, Mike. All right. See if we get it. Oliver, interesting, juiced premium going into that big report. Oliver Renick, that's going to do it for overtime. Fast money begins after this.

Quick break.