Closing Bell - Closing Bell Overtime: Alcoa CEO Exclusive; Trump Inches Closer To Firing Powell 7/16/25

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Our Steve Liesman and Jefferies' David Zervos break down the political and market implications as Trump inches closer to firing Fed Chair Jerome Powel. Key earnings include United Airlines and Alcoa. Alcoa CEO Bill Oplinger joins exclusively to react to his company’s quarterly numbers. Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives questions why markets aren’t more rattled, and MoffettNathanson’s Robert Fishman previews Netflix ahead of results. Plus, bond market moves with Rick Santelli, and Tim Seymour weighs in on global markets, Apple, and Diageo. 

Well, that's standard regulation national grid ringing the closing bell the New York stock exchange You life group doing the honors at the Nasdaq a wild day for stocks as reports came out Saying the president was planning to fire Jay Powell But the president downplayed those reports and stocks rebounded look at the yield on the 10-year note That's spiked around 11 a.m. Eastern getting near 4.5 before dropping a few basis points We also saw a big reaction in the US dollar that turned lower on the Fed news and is now on track to break a seven-day winning streak. Here's some of your individual movers today. Johnson & Johnson leading the S&P today rallying on the back of

strong earnings. ASML that was the big loser today brought the broader semi-group lower too. Earnings were in line with expectation but the company saying it couldn't guarantee growth in twenty twenty six because of uncertainty. Global payments higher and reports that Elliott Management has taken a large stake in the company and Mitch mixed bag for financials today. Morgan Stanley lower as its investment banking segment posted a decline. Bank of America also lower despite a beat and Goldman Sachs slightly higher. Well, that's a scorecard on Wall Street,

but winners stay lit. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. I'm John Ford, alongside Morgan Brennan. Let's get straight to the big story of the day. President Trump downplaying reports that he would fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, but at the same time fueling them because he had a draft of a letter to do it.

I'm completely ruling out the idea of firing Jerome Powell. I don't rule out anything, but I think it's highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud. I mean, it's possible there's fraud involved with the $2.5, $2.7 billion renovation. Well, even as he called a firing highly unlikely, the president criticized Powell again for not lowering interest rates. For more, let's bring in our Steve Leesman. Steve, it seems like the renovation criticism setting up as a potential reason to fire Powell,

which we've gotten the sense the president might like to do anyway. Yeah, it's a bit of a problem. I mean, depending upon the extent to which the courts end up having to look at this, but the fact that the president has talked about needing their wanting to fire Powell because of interest rates certainly does set up this business of the business of the renovation of those buildings as a pretext. Most of the legal experts I've spoken to today say it's pretty patently pretext here and it would be very difficult in most courts anyway to kind of get away from that given

the president's statements on this that really he wants the Fed to, he wants to fire Powell so the Fed will lower interest rates because of among other things how much we have to pay in debt service. What do you think, what do you make of Steve the reaction we saw in the bond market? He said to your yields come off a little bit. You saw the curve steepen, but it wasn't a dramatic Response per se and we do we do seem to have unwound some of what we saw earlier in the day Well, it's kind of interesting I mean who knows how to trade Trump these days and I think basically the idea is to kind of Fade his most extreme statements.

It is a little weird he did draft up this letter and then said it's highly unlikely as if he was two different people. Somebody drafted up the letter, and now I'm unlikely to use this letter, but I did draft up the letter. So mostly I think it is paid to fade the president's most extreme pronouncements over the short

term. Over the long term, for example, if you faded the tariffs, it was a good thing because you got a big rally, but it does look like some of that inflation is working into the CPI. We are hearing that there are some earnings impacts. And again, I think this is a long term story. The market's going to react short term, long term anyway, to this, to the president potentially firing Powell, but it's the long term that really matters here, whether or not the bond market goes to sleep at night, thinking, hey, the Fed has our back on inflation,

not really lowering rates in order to lower debt service. And also the issue of the currency. Those are long-term plays and that's one of the reasons why the U.S. is in the extraordinary position it's in. It's because of the independence of the Fed. Steve, we're about to talk to David Zervos who has argued to us in the past that the Fed isn't

really independent anyway, but it seems like there's a difference between perhaps not being seeming completely independent and being under the thumb of the president. I think so. I mean, I think that there are things that the Fed does that are within the bounds of what the body politic is looking for. It fought inflation during the pandemic with a lot of support from the body politic to support it to fight inflation. It raised interest rates. It didn't get a lot of pushback. Had it had a lot of pushback, maybe it wouldn't have done so much. But I think you make a really good distinction. There's a difference between sort of going with

the way things are going and perhaps limiting or delimiting what you do based upon what's going on politically at the time and being under the thumb of the president. And that's where you get into these situations like Turkey and Argentina, where we really take a broad and bold and very dangerous step towards essentially becoming a third world country.

Okay. Steve Leesman, thank you for getting in front of a camera and joining us today for a big story, the big story for the markets today. Let's get more reaction on the Fed with Jefferies Chief Market Strategist and CNBC contributor David Cervos. David, it's great to have you on. You know, it's interesting because you were on CBC earlier today as we were getting reports that Trump was drafting this letter and planning to potentially do this.

And then right after that, hearing from the president himself that it's unlikely, and you know, I sort of leave that with a little bit of a question mark and air quotes, that he's going to remove the Fed chair before his term is up. I want to get your reaction now, as we've seen all of this play out in real time in the markets over the last couple hours. Well, Morgan, I think, yes, you got me at a very specific time during this whole saga today.

And it was, you know I in retrospect I think it was. Kind of as I said earlier in CNBC the CBC interview around the ten thirty eleven o'clock. On New York time that really the story here is the lack of market reaction that the market was not. Particularly fussed by the fact

that J. Powell may be may be fired for cause, and that seems like what the president was talking about, not for interest rates. And then we kind of have learned, I think, as Steve said, that's a pretty big hill to climb with the building and whether this building really is something that could be the cause of Jay's demise. It's a hard one to figure out. We're not experts in all that. But I would say that the most interesting part of the day was just how little the market really cared,

how irrelevant that might have been. And I chalked it up to the fact that I think there are a lot of good candidates that the president is looking to nominate here. And I think the market knows that. And I chalked it up as well to the fact that the market already knows that the Fed really is not as independent as many think, something that John was saying in the previous segment. So in light of that, I want to get your reaction to what you've heard from a number of the big bank CEOs. Have a listen.

I think central bank independence, Fed independence is very important and it's something we should fight to preserve. The stability of this country is actually necessary and important to the whole world and I think a stable Fed and independent Fed is key to that. And we also heard from Jamie Dimon in that conference call for JP Morgan yesterday where he basically warned about how playing around with the Fed can have adverse consequences as well. I know you just raised this question of how independent is the Fed really, but how do you also avoid this becoming an Arthur Burns 2.0 situation if you do have a next Fed chair who's seen as tightly aligned with the president and his policies?

I think what the next fed chair will be is someone who probably does take a little bit more risk with inflation. Much like Janie Yellen took some risks with inflation, tried to run the economy a little hotter. And actually, it worked even

better than many had thought, and nobody got to worry about it. Even Ben Bernanke ran the economy with a little bit more focus on inflation risks when he was doing QE1, QE2, QE3. So I think it's more about the risk-taking that the Fed takes, and this Fed is skewed toward not doing that,

I think, for some political reasons, and that's historically where Jay Powell was back in 2018, where he seemed to get to in September of last year when he decided to cut 50 instead of 25. And I think the president is, like he did in 2018, sort of rebelling against that whole structure. And again, by 2019, PAL was reversing those rate hikes as they created some problems in the economy.

I think, Morgan, the big story, and I hear all your guests, I hear all these CEOs, I listen to a lot of very talented mainstream economists talk about the importance of Fed independence. The reality is, if you really look at the history of the Fed, it is part of the D.C. swamp. It is the creature from Jekyll Island, as the book says, it was created in Jekyll Island. And that is a swamp creature, and it is political. And we should just live with the fact

that we have a political Fed. I'm okay with it. I use that all the time when I'm doing my analysis for our clients to try to best serve them in understanding the decisions the Fed makes. I'm not trying to say what it should be, but what it is. But how political is it okay for it to be? A Fed chief, a Fed chair has never been fired before.

Is there peril here at all, you think, for both the markets and the economy if we move from a state of, well, maybe the Fed's not completely independent, to presidents can now find excuses to fire Fed chairs whose policies they don't like and say it's for cause. And you know what, John? That is the best question. The best question, hands down. Because this is not a decision to fire Jay Powell because of his views on interest rates.

That's not what's happening What what I think the president is saying is if there's if there's fraud then there will be cause and we would go after that Now are they manufacturing that to sort of get to an ulterior motive? Potentially and we know that there are plenty of politics around in that in that in that vein of thinking but the reality is no one is stepping in and trying to There are plenty of politics around in that vein of thinking. But the reality is no one is stepping in and trying to change the structure of the Constitution or the Federal Reserve Act and say that this is a president that can say, I don't like your interest rate views, so I'm going to fire you.

They have to have a good reason. And I think Steve is right on the fact that it's not that easy to show that this central bank chair was somehow committing negligent acts with the building. Was he really in charge of the whole thing? I imagine there was committees and all sorts of stuff going on. So it's not an easy task, and it could take months and months of defense and all sorts of stuff going on. So it's not an easy task and it could take months and months of defense and all sorts of things. This is a president who's willing to do things that aren't easy. David Zervos, thank you.

Absolutely. Well, United earnings are out. Phil LaBose got the numbers, Phil. John, take a look at shares of United. As you guys have been chatting over the last 10 minutes, shares have been moving lower. Why? Well, mainly because these are numbers

that are gonna be a little bit disappointing, especially on the guidance. Start first off with EPS, it did beat the street. 387 a share versus 381 was the estimate. Revenue coming in lighter than expected at 15.236 billion. The metrics within the Q2 results, revenue per seat mile down 4% compared to the same quarter of 2024. Cost per seat mile up 2.2% compared to Q2 of last year. Pre-tax margin of 11%. Last year it was 11.6%. Put a pin in pre-tax margin. We're going to talk more about that in just a little bit. There has key free cash flow of 1.13 billion, shy of where they were last year. Premium revenue up 5.6 percent, no

surprise. The passenger who can pay more, wants to pay more, is willing to pay more. But domestic revenue, when you factor in all passengers, that's down 0.7 percent in the second quarter. I mentioned that we wanted to talk about margin. Well there was an impact because of all of the issues at Newark Airport where United had to draw down its schedule, had a slew of cancellations and delays, which was basically a mess for most of the second quarter. That impacted the Q2 margins. They were lower by 1.2% because of the flight cuts at Newark and that also impacts what

the company is expecting in the third quarter and the rest of this year. There will be an impact in the third quarter in terms of margins because of Newark. Their EPS guidance right now, 225 to 275 a share, the street's at 260. And then there is the guidance. Remember, after Q1, United said, we're going to give two guidance estimates here. We're going to say if there's a recessionary environment, $7 to $9 for the full year. If it's a stable environment, that's the words that United used back in April, if it's a stable environment, they expected to earn $11.50 to $13.50.

Now they are saying for the full year they expect to earn $9 to $11. The street's at $10.04. Clearly Newark is having an impact here. One of many questions we will have tomorrow morning on Squawk Box for United CEO Scott Kirby, first on CNBC. You don't want to miss what he has to say. And we will be talking with him about the impact of Newark and the hangover effect, if you will, Morgan, as you go into the rest of this year.

Yeah, we here at CNBC know the Newark effect well with our global headquarters in northern New Jersey. Just really quick, Phil, does that mean that they have whittled this down to one forecast for the rest of the year now? Yes, yes. It is now nine to $11, not 1150 to 1350, which is what they originally said was the high end of what they could do this year. They now are saying nine to 11. All right, Phil LeBeau. Thank you with shares shares of United down about three and a half percent right now. Well, another mover to bring you Alcoa earnings are out and it

is a beat on the top and bottom lines. The aluminum producer reporting E. P. S. of 39 cents per share adjusted. That was eight cents better than estimates revenue of $3.02 billion, also topping expectations. The company cited a tariff impact of 115 million for the quarter. Alcoa had said around $90 million was the impact they were expecting back in April. But of course, during the quarter, we did see those tariffs on imported aluminum double to 50%.

Alcoa saying it redirected Canadian produced aluminum to customers outside the U.S. to mitigate additional tariff costs while maintaining advocacy efforts with policymakers. For 2025, the company keeping production and shipment guidance unchanged for both the alumina segment and also for aluminum production. That's also unchanged. But for aluminum, specifically, the shipment projections are being cut a little bit to a range of 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons. That's primarily due to reduced production

at the San Ciprian smelter in Spain as a result of the delayed restart there. Now, Alcoa's CEO, William Opplinger, is gonna join us in just a little while. He's gonna break down this quarter, what he's seeing across mining and the aluminum industry, and what the read-through is from his key vantage point to the broader economy as well.

So you don't wanna miss that. Shares of Alcoa, though, are up about 2% right now here in overtime. Looking forward to that. Well, coming up much more on this big Fed story. If the president is considering firing the Fed chair, why didn't we see a bigger market reaction or do the markets believe it's all talk and not actually going to happen? Overtime is back in two. Welcome back to Overtime, the big story today. President Trump shooting down reports

that he is planning to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell. Markets fell on the news, but bounce back on the president's denial. So let's get to Rick Santelli in Chicago for the action in the bond market. Rick, break it down. Yes, you know, I've seen a lot of market moves since 1979 and this particular move,

well, it didn't add up right from the beginning. Let's look at the charts, okay? Here's a two-year note. You'll remember this all occurred a little bit before 11 o'clock Eastern, a little bit before 11 o'clock Eastern. And bit before 11 o'clock Eastern and we're at 392 in a two year it broke down to 386 six basis points of course it would go down if you fired the Fed chairman you expect the next one to lower rates

And if you lower rates what happens to the long end but long ends left to its own devices will probably be a bit nervous Its yields would go up. So there we go. If you look at that time period, we were right around 444 when the news hit. It moved up to 448, four basis points. If you look at a Fed fund December of 25, it was hovering right around 9609. It moved up to 9614. Now that's about five basis points, but what's interesting here is that we understand when Fed Fund futures move higher, they're putting in more Fed.

It all fits. And finally, the dollar index. Dollar index is going to get hit for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is it's going to be following interest rates on the short end. It's been shadow boxing the two-year note for the last six months. Of course, it moved lower by about 7-8ths of a cent. But what all those charts show you is the moves were very brief. As a matter of fact, long before the denial, most sources I talked to said if really firing

the Fed chief was truly going to happen, these moves would be much bigger. They would be gigantic, all told. And the volatility on a summer day, it would be on the wild side. None of it added up. But what I can tell you is, in the grand scheme of things, this pressure may affect some of the other committee members, and maybe that's where the story truly goes. Morgan, John, back to you. All right. Rick Santelli, great to have your take. Now, for more on why the market didn't see a bigger reaction

from the headlines, let's bring in Paulson Perspectives author, Jim Paulson. Jim, good to see you. So does the market think an attempted Powell firing isn't going to happen or it just doesn't matter if it does? I don't think anyone really believes that's going to happen, John. I think that what happened today with Trump to me fits Trump's MO And how he negotiates and how he how he deals with adversaries or what he perceives as I'm sorry He delivers threats his idea of negotiations is to drop a concussion bomb inside the room and then go in to negotiate

And he feels like if he keeps pressure on the adversary then go in to negotiate. And he feels like if he keeps pressure on the adversary, it'll eventually get him to where he wants him. And he does that with political foes. He does it when he's negotiating peace. He does it with his tariff war. Why not do it with the Fed? I don't think he has any intention to fire him,

particularly this close to when he's gonna have to leave the chair anyway. But I think by raising this issue, that we're all talking about it, we're all asking the question, is the Fed too tight for too long? Should they use interest rates? And it keeps the pressure on the Federal Reserve as a whole. I think that's what he wants to do.

Okay. But it's easy to get distracted by the details. They are exciting. They are interesting. But from an investor perspective, is the bottom line that rates are more likely to come down now one way or another? I don't, maybe a little bit at the bar, but I don't think so. I think today's actually had a little impact.

I think more importantly, you know, you got to look at the economy's performance and really I think growth in the economy is pretty slow here. We had a half percent decline in real GDP in the first quarter. The GDP now is corrected a little over 2% in the second. We'll be growing at around 1% for the first half of this year in real terms. That's very weak. Job numbers, I think, have been on the weak side here for a period of time. I think inflation is staying under control.

And so I think the Fed is going to ease. And I think the market, by the way, is acting more about that than anything else. Already, the dollar has been coming down. The money supply has been increasing more. Fiscal juice is still pretty strong. We're already starting to see markets starting to react to that, doing a little better overall,

even some of the broader parts of the market, I think because of the anticipation that the Fed's gonna have to ease pretty soon. So in light of that, what do you buy here? Because we know we have an S&P that's at lofty valuations, arguably. We also know breadth has been very narrow. So where do you see opportunity?

I would look to the broader market to finally getting Morgan a broad market advance, which we just simply have not had in this bull market I think a lot of that is because of the tight Fed throughout this bowl They withheld a lot of the normal stimulating factors by keeping the funds rate either going up or high They kept bond yields high that kept the mortgage rate high. They kept the dollar strong They kept the mortgage rate high. They kept the dollar strong. They kept money growth weak. And I think if they are gonna ease, all of that is gonna turn positive for the stock market. And that's what you generally get at the start of a bull

when everything goes up in broad marketplace like small cap stocks, international stocks, value plays, more cyclical plays, do better than growth and even technology. And I don't think tech is gonna fall apart or the growth part of the market, but I do think you want to move to an underweight in those areas and to think about some of these areas that have not yet participated that I think will if the Fed finally comes in with a full on use. Okay, Jim Paulson, thanks for joining us.

Thanks for having me, Morgan. And we did see a record close for the NASDAQ today, speaking of some of those tech names. Now, we have a news alert on Sarepta, and Angelica Peebles has the details on why the stock is absolutely surging right now. Angelica. Hey, Morgan, that's right. That stock is up about 40% right now, and that's because Sarepta is announcing that they're cutting about one-third of its workforce,

but more importantly, they're saying that they have reached an agreement with the FDA to add a black box warning that's the most stringent safety warning on the label for its gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, that gene therapy, Alevitis. If you remember just last month we saw the second patient die after receiving this gene therapy and that raised a lot of questions about whether the FDA would allow this gene therapy to stay on the market. Now there's an important distinction here and that those two patients who died

were no longer able to walk. These are typically older patients. Both of those boys were teenagers. And so now Sarepta is saying that this black box warning means that the indication for boys that still can walk, so the younger boys, that is safe, that this drug can now stay on the market and that they're in discussions with the FDA they're planning to go to the FDA with a new safety precaution in order to bring bring this drug back to the market for

those boys who are older and can no longer walk so really the takeaways here is that it appears that they can keep this gene therapy on the market at least for some patients And that they are taking actions to rein in their expenses as they figure out the next steps on some of those Other patients who are not able to get it at this time. Okay, Angelica people. Thank you It's wrapped up 35 36 percent right now here in overtime. Well coming up. We'll put earnings back in focus We're gonna speak to the CEO aboutcoa following the results that we got earlier this hour. And the big report.

Everyone will be binging tomorrow on Netflix. The stocks have nearly doubled in the past year. Will the numbers support the hype? We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime. Shares of the asset managers are higher today. President Trump expected to sign an executive order this week that would make private market investments more available, more accessible in retirement plans. Think 401K access, for example.

Evercore is saying today that this could be a roughly $12 trillion market opportunity and would be a boon for firms like the ones you see right here, Apollo and KKR and Blackstone and Carlisle and Aries management, which all play heavily in private markets and have been pushing hard to market those products to individuals in recent years. Could be big. Well, time for a CNBC News Update now with Kate Rogers. Kate.

Hi, John. President Trump signed into law the Halt Fentanyl Act this afternoon at the White House. The bill aims to make it easier for law enforcement to prosecute crimes involving fentanyl-related substances, including copycats, by permanently classifying them as a Schedule I controlled substance. The administration has said the move will make it harder

for cartels to manufacture and distribute the drugs. Jill Biden's former aide Anthony Bernal invoked his Fifth Amendment rights today at a deposition with House Republicans who are investigating former President Biden's state of health while in office. Bernal is the second person to invoke the Fifth Amendment following President Biden's White House doctor Kevin O'Connor. And a huge fire severely damaged the main stage at Belgium's Tomorrowland music festival just two days before the event was set to begin. The event's organizers confirmed no one was injured in Wednesday's blaze. Images shared on and across social media and local news outlets showed plumes of smoke

engulfing the stage. Organizers say they're now working on quote, finding solutions for the weekend. Back over to you. All right, Kate, thanks. Well, it's a big day for Johnson & Johnson gaining 6% after results. Earlier this week, Fast Money's Tim Seymour was bullish on J&J here, leading into earnings and coming up we'll get Tim's take on the stock from here.

And speaking of earnings, Alcoa reporting just just moments ago the CEO is about to join us. Hear him on overtime before he talks to analysts on the conference call. There's a lot to get to with him. Stay with us. Welcome back to overtime. Let's turn now to Alcoa reporting numbers just moments ago it was a beat on the top and bottom lines and joining us now for an exclusive interview before the earnings call is William Oppelinger

Alcoa CEO and Bill it's great to have you back on the show welcome. Thanks for having me on Morgan nice to see you again. It's great to see you too and that's exactly where I want, which is the quarter, because it was a beat on the top and bottom lines. You maintained most of your guidance for 2025 on alumina and aluminum production and shipments as well. I know you whittled it a little bit for aluminum, but you saw lower prices for alumina and

aluminum in the quarter, and yet you topped expectations. How were you able to do it? So it was a strong quarter for us. We improved safety, which we always lead with safety. We had very stable operations. We generated really strong cash flow. We had a couple of strategic items

that resolved in the second quarter also. We resolved a large tax dispute with the Australian Tax Office, which really eliminates an overhang on the stock. We divested our interest in the Saudi Arabian JVs for $1.3

billion. So, overall, it was a good quarter, and we're projecting a better quarter in the third quarter from an operations perspective. So much of the aluminum you supply into the U.S. market has

melted in Canada. We saw those tariffs increased. How are you navigating it? So it's it's been a lot of volatility in our markets. Markets have been very, very dynamic. What we've seen is that prices in the United States are significantly higher today than they were in the in the first quarter globally. However, prices have gone down, right? And so ultimately what that drove is lower pricing for our company as a whole in the second quarter. But I'm particularly proud with how we've reacted to the really dynamic market situation. We redirected 100,000 tons of metal that would normally be destined for the United States

out of Canada into other locations that are not the United States. And so in order to mitigate some of those higher tariff costs, we're actually shipping metal that normally would have gone to the U.S. to other parts of the world. What does that mean for supply in the U.S.? Could we see a shortfall here? Could we see that become more lopsided specifically due to tariffs as we move through the year? What it means in the U.S. is

that if we're doing that and other companies are doing that prices will react in the U.S. So while prices have gone up substantially in the second quarter we still think that prices in order to cover the tariff expense have to go up

anywhere between one hundred and fifty and two hundred dollars a ton and as there's less metal going into the U.S., prices will react. What does that mean for end markets, whether it's automakers or others that you're supplying to? End markets, our order books, have been pretty strong. Right?

So we are focused in the U.S. and in Europe. Those are our two key markets. And as I look across the different markets, building construction, you know, hasn't changed substantially but hasn't gotten weaker. Packaging is very strong. The one area that we've seen a

little bit of weakness is in the automotive sector, and we see that in both Europe and in the U.S. and we're watching that market to see whether it gets weaker. What is the messaging from policymakers, whether it's in the U.S. And we're watching that market to see whether it gets weaker. What is the messaging from policymakers, whether it's in

the U.S. or elsewhere? So, our message has been very consistent from the very beginning. The U.S. is short 4 million metric tons on an annual basis. Roughly three, and these are rough numbers, 3 million metric

tons is made in Canada and shipped into the U.S. Those supply lines, those supply chains have been in place for decades. We think metal coming from Canada should either come into the U.S. without a tariff or have a preferential tariff coming in. So I'm going to ask you the same question I asked you last quarter, and that is what would it take for you to stand up more production in the U.S. and perhaps just as importantly given some of the deals we're seeing struck in relation to other types of materials and minerals, are you engaged with the U.S.

government in something similar? We are absolutely engaged with the government both in the U.S. and in Canada around the tariff discussions, have had extensive engagement with many folks that work directly for President Trump to discuss what would incent building aluminum plants in the United States. But as we said last time, energy, energy, energy comes down to cheap, affordable energy in the U.S. that is available for a 20-, 30-, 40-year timeframe. That's what incents aluminum producers

to put production in any country around the world. And that's what would incent us in the U.S. Okay, Bill Laplinger, CEO of Alcoa. Thank you for joining me, appreciate it. Thanks Morgan, nice to see you again. Some important recurring themes there. Up next, markets are hovering near highs. We'll ask Tim Seymour whether now's the time

to jump back into the buy America trade and avoid international markets. Plus an analyst with a buy rating on Netflix on how you should be trading the stock ahead of its earnings after the bell tomorrow. Welcome back to overtime. Let's talk international global markets were outperforming the U.S. for most of the first half of the year. But now the U.S. is at all time highs. So is the international trade over? Joining us now from the fast money set is Tim Seymour Seymour, asset management, CIO

and a CNBC contributor. And Tim, it's great to have you back on the show. It's great to be here, Morgan. Let's start right there, because European stocks have been struggling here in recent weeks to make new highs, even as the U.S. has. We've seen this great rotation out of U.S. equities into European stocks, out of the U.S. dollar into the euro.

Is that reversing itself? I think we've seen, first of all, the dollar value 2 percent in July. We've seen the DAX underperform the S S&P, if we're tracking Germany by about 8% since the peak that happened somewhere early to mid-May. I think the themes that have people focus on international are very much alive. First of all, I'm not sure the dollar, despite being, you know, sell the dollar being one of the most crowded trades in markets, I think the dollar probably ends up weaker rather than stronger from here before we go to the end of the year. The dynamics around why Europe is interesting, the German fiscal package, deficit spending, Rearm Europe, these are all trends that I think actually are alive and well.

I think if you think deregulation is a tailwind for U.S. equities, I think markets love relative change and I think for Europe and European markets, it's even better there. I think European banks have more of that going for them than the US banks actually. I think European healthcare is actually in a better place so I like valuations, I like the trends here. It wasn't just a trade, I think it's an investment.

Okay, Tim, you're also watching Apple. It's officially a trillion dollars in market cap behind Nvidia now. Can you say the trend line is intact? Well I think holding above 200 is important for Apple. The fact that we all know Apple's been dead money since really December 21. I think it's somewhere 13, 14 percent up during a time when we know what the semiconductor space, we know what MegaCap has done.

I think if you look at Apple in terms of expectations, everybody says they've got no AI game plan and that's very much in the price. In other words, I don't think we've priced in any AI. If you listen to IDC shipment and the hardware side of their business, which we all know is at least the part of the business that's more predictable, they're expecting shipments to be up 1%

and they're gonna be better than expected, especially with China down 1%. So it's all about expectations. It's all about where Apple, I think, has come from. It's 28, 29 times forward. It's not expensive relative to the last five years. It is expensive on a 10-year basis. Okay.

Well, let's talk booze, Tim. Let's talk booze. Diageo CEO stepping down. What's your take on that stock? I think it's great news for a company, Diageo, where there's been earnings pressure, and obviously that's manifested in multiple pressure. I think you've got a case where a change in a CEO here is good news and bad news.

I think there's probably six to 12 months of uncertainty around the stock until we get a new CEO and a new strategy. I think Diageo is the premier spirits brand in the world. I think you've got a case where Europe is actually very interesting. I think the China story is also more interesting. All right, Tim Seymour, thank you. Now, if you wanna know how Tim feels now

about Johnson & Johnson after that pression call, you're gonna have to watch him and the rest of the Fast Money crew coming up 5 p.m. They're gonna be joined by former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. Well, we are awaiting votes on a trio of crypto bills in the house still. Up next we're going to

discuss whether Republicans will be able to round up enough votes to pass them. And check out shares of N.P. materials. The company selling an additional five hundred million dollars of common stock. The stock closing at an all-time high today. It has been ripping. It's up big over the past week after

signing a deal with the US government and then one yesterday with Apple so perhaps not surprising to see a secondary offering happening here now. We'll be right back. Welcome back to overtime Bitcoin Coinbase circle all sharply higher today as the house gets set to vote finally on a trio of crypto bills. Emily Wilkins has the latest details, Emily. Hey John, well the vibes might be good in the market, but they are not so great up here on Capitol Hill, where Republicans are yet again having difficulty moving forward with this slate of three crypto bills.

So a reminder what they are trying to move forward on here, you have one bill genius, that's the stable coin rules of the road bill. It's bipartisan. It's already passed the Senate It could go to Trump's desk as soon as this week if lawmakers wind up moving on it Then you have clarity that's market structure dealing with commodities and securities And then after that you have one to prohibit the Fed from creating a central bank digital currency And it's that last one that's really become a point of contention among a number of hardline conservatives. They're worried that if that stablecoin bill moves through the House and goes to Trump's desk, the other two bills, the central bank digital currency and market structure,

that they're not going to have the momentum to get through the Senate. And the Senate's not going to have enough pressure to really get them done. And so for now, hours, these broad lawmakers have been negotiating with speaker Mike Johnson, with top Republicans on the house financial services committee, trying to find a path forward. But at this point, it's just not clear what that solution is going to be. It's not clear when we're going to see this vote that's now been held open for hours wrapped up and it's not clear if we're going to even get a vote on any crypto bill this week,

because it seems like these concerns are going to need to be addressed before anything can move forward. Guys? All right. Giving new meaning to the term crypto week, I guess. Emily Wilkins, thanks for joining us and bringing us the latest. Netflix, headlining a huge day of earnings tomorrow. Up next, a top analyst tells us what he's expecting from the streaming giant.

And don't forget, you can catch us on the go by following the Closing Bell Overtime Podcast on your favorite podcast app. We'll be right back. Welcome back. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. On the economic front, Welcome back. Let's get you set up with tomorrow's trade today. On the economic front, we will get weekly jobless claims, retail sales, import prices,

and home builder sentiment. Plus, it'll be another big day of earnings. Travelers, PepsiCo, GE Aerospace, Abbott Labs, U.S. Bank Core, Citizens Financial, Fifth Third, and Taiwan Semicondu semiconductor will report before the bell right here on overtime we'll get results from netflix and interactive brokers speaking of interactive brokers chairman thomas petter fee will break down those results with us before the conference call and speaking of netflix joining us now is robert fishman from moth and nathanson uh... robert how good

do those results have to be given how much the stock is up here today? Well, it's a great question. I think clearly the expectations are high with this company, but the reality is we're still, there's lots of room to go here in terms of the momentum that the company has in monetizing their engagement and the growth ahead for the company on the revenue side, but really on the profit side and the earning side. We feel pretty comfortable in this story and where we're going to go from here. There's a lot of different ways that this company can win. So what we're looking for tomorrow is really trying to have a better understanding where

the growth is coming from on the advertising front, if the company is gonna lean in more on the sports front, and lots of different ways that this company, Netflix, has the ability to really grow in the years ahead. So are you saying price increases and ad effectiveness are gonna be the key? Well, they've raised prices already, so we're gonna continue to see that roll through

the results, you know, expecting mid-teens revenue growth and the result of these pricing increases and the early innings ramp up in the advertising monetization of their engagement really allows a lot of these revenue dollars to flow down to the bottom line. So we're expecting 30% earnings growth this year and that elevated level of earnings growth to really continue over the next few years, which allows for this premium multiple that you were alluding to at the beginning. I mean, they've talked about Robert,

the fact that they have a lot of demand for this ad product, but that the demand is exceeding their ability to build out the infrastructure. So how important is that build out and the speeds with which they can do it to really realize the bull thesis here? Yeah, it's a great question. Again, like coming off the Microsoft relationship has freed up Netflix to really tap into the broader advertising world.

So they're not exclusive to the Microsoft relationship that they have been looking backwards. And by building out their in-house technology and partnering with third-party demand side platforms like the trade desk really has allowed them to start to monetize their inventory in a completely different way. So again, very early in this monetization cycle, when you look at how much they monetize their overall leading engagement, according to Nielsen, they're at the early innings compared to some of the other streamers out there. So we think that they have a lot of room to go

in terms of the advertising growth. We're seeing a lot of spin-offs, M&A, like the competitive landscape is shifting and changing, not only for the direct competitors, but also for content creators in general. How does that funnel back to Netflix, especially as it continues to double down on things like live events?

Yeah, I mean, you just hit on it. I think what Netflix is gonna continue to do is lean in to some of the advantages that the old ecosystem, traditional ecosystem, has held onto. And the more disruptive the Netflix can be in something like sporting events and more big tentpole events, like we just saw with the women's boxing

match, they have the ability to really tap into a different level of engagement that is still holding the traditional ecosystem together. So that's going to probably put more pressure on that ecosystem and allow Netflix to take advantage of that much more. All right. Robert Fishman, we will look forward to it. Thank you. Morgan, we're through the first week of kind of official earnings season with the banks. The markets are still near all-time highs, and we hit a bit of a pothole today trying to figure out is the president really saying that he's not going to try to fire Powell

or is he saying, well, there's a chance by waving around that letter, but the market recovered. Yeah, carrot stick dynamic. Jim Paulson talked about this a little bit. You also have to wonder if he's just jaw boning the market here and sort of testing it to see how the market would react if he were to move forward with something like that.

I'm really interested after Goldman Sachs report today and the fact that it was record stock trading revenue in Wall Street history, how that sets up some of the other companies like Interactive Brokers that reports here tomorrow, given just the volatility that we have seen in this environment. And how much is priced in? And we know Robinhood has been soaring, though it can't get into the S&P.

Yeah. And of course, we will continue to watch all of this crypto legislation for some of these names too. That's going to do it for us here at Overtime. Fast Money starts now.